Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE UPSWING AND WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
MONSOON RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED...THE BAGGY TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS SHIFTED
OFF THE CA COAST...AND THE UPPER HIGH HAS BEEN BUILDING FURTHER
TOWARDS THE NORTH ALLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME A BIT MORE
SLY/SELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WIND FIELDS ARE STILL QUITE WEAK
HOWEVER AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO IMPORT SIGNIFICANT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES AT PHOENIX HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT
1.16 INCHES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING LOWERED THEM BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DEBRIS TYPE CLOUD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MUCH OF IT HAS DISSIPATED AND
MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT 8 PM WAS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
GRAPHICS SHOWED DECREASING CAPE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...MOSTLY BELOW
500 J/KG. ANY OUTFLOW THAT MOVES UP FROM THE COMPLEX OFF TO OUR EAST
WILL STRUGGLE TO GENERATE NEW STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH POPS AROUND 10
PERCENT OR LOWER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR CURRENT SKY AND
WEATHER TRENDS AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
AC CLOUDS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY AND
WESTERN PINAL COUNTY. DEW POINTS ARE BACK UP TO MODERATE MONSOON
LEVELS WITH MOST SURFACE STATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW 60S...ABOUT A
20 DEG BUMP FROM FRIDAYS READINGS. ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON STARTING
TO SEE SOME BUILDUPS ALONG THE RIM AND WHITE MTNS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES...ANOTHER SIGN THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK WITH US
FOR THE TIME BEING. WATER VAPOR STILL REFLECTING THE RATHER DRY
UPPER LEVEL AND WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM PHOENIX.
HAVE NOTICED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX METRO AFTER REVIEWING
LOCAL WEBCAMS AND RADAR IMAGERY. MOST HAVE BEEN IN THE WEST VALLEY
OR NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN. WITH THAT INFORMATION AT HAND...AND THE
INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE AFTERNOON POPS WERE BUMPED UP A
BIT...GIVING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL IS CALLING FOR A MCV TO GENERATE JUST SOUTH
OF THE MEXICO BORDER NEAR NOGALES. INDEED...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
SOME CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS ALONG THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
ALSO INDICATES A VERY PRONOUNCED AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH THROUGH PIMA COUNTY AND MAY
POSSIBLY SLIP INTO OUR AREA OF SOUTHWEST MARICOPA AND WESTERN PINAL
COUNTY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THAT...I DID ADD A BIT OF
BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MODERATE MONSOON CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE AND THAT
RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED FROM UTAH THROUGH TEXAS AND THE GOM. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT FEEDING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD IN MORE OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WILL START TO CUT OFF SOME OF THAT MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE ZONAL...STRETCHING FROM BAJA CA ACROSS THE MEXICO BORDERS OF
AZ AND NM AND OVER TEXAS. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE
MODERATE MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR EVEN BELOW NORMALS...DEPENDING ON
EXISTENCE OF ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ERODING MONSOON STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/STORMS IN THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA TONIGHT IS QUITE LOW...BELOW 10 PERCENT...AS MID LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS. CONVECTION
CONTINUES WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DOUBT THAT OUTFLOW STRONG
ENOUGH TO FORCE NEW STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES...MAINLY SCT
MID/HI LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...AND KEEP A LARGELY PERSISTENCE WIND
FORECAST IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO RETURN AT LEAST BRIEFLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT KIWA/KPHX AFTER 09Z OR SO...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE WEST BY NOON SUNDAY. THREAT FOR AFTN
CONVECTION SUNDAY REMAINS WEAK AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER WILL BE
MADE IN THE EVENING TAF FORECASTS.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL...AND
KBLH...
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...LOCALLY
WESTERLY OVER WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MAY SEE
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL TEND TO KEEP THEM AT BAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES LEFT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25-30 PERCENT ON THE LOWER DESERTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TRENDING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATERS
AVIATION....AJ/CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT
THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S
F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 2-4 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS
THIS TIME THUR.
08/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.28 INCHES WAS AN
INCREASE OF 0.30 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE...WITH UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2047 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX OF MINUS 5. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WAS FAIRLY MOIST IN THE
SURFACE-550 MB LAYER...VERY DRY AIR WAS OBSERVED ABOVE 500 MB.
08/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED 591 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE NRN CONUS
PLAINS. A WEAK TROUGH WAS OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND WRN AZ. LIGHT
GENERALLY ELY/SELY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE AZ...
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 500 MB.
08/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND 08/14Z RUC HRRR WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING PRECIP ECHOES TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN
PROGGED TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ALSO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD EXHIBIT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UPWARD GROWTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AS NOTED IN THE ABOVE
DIAGNOSTICS. UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM THEN SUGGESTS THAT DRY CONDITIONS
WOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THRU MID-MORNING SAT. THE FAVORED
LOCALES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE EAST OF TUCSON
AS PER THE 08/12Z NAM.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-THUR. 08/00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ENHANCED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TUE AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE AREA. SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS MAY THEN OCCUR WED AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT
LOW REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO...STILL ABOUT 4-5 DAYS AWAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL...DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SE AZ INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE WEST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS...AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KOLS TERMINAL. BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM OUTFLOWS
MAY APPROACH 35-40 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
8-12K FT AGL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR WILL THEN CONTINUE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
821 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF A
DENVER TO AKRON LINE WHICH MAY CONTINE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE LATEST
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS LINGERING THRU 12Z WHILE THE RAP SHOWS
NOTHING. FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NERN
PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO CONTINUE GENERATING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR LATER THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN WYOMING HAS
APPARENTLY PASSED THROUGH CASPER WHILE OUTFLOW NORTHERLIES FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CHEYENNE SHORTLY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOMETIME
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM AND MOVE THROUGH DENVER WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY LAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AFTER GETTING A BOOST FROM THE COLD FRONT. DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL PROBABLY SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW AN ABUNDANCE
OF SURFACE MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF STRATUS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...TOMORROWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE
PLAINS...KEEPING THE AIRMASS TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE VERY MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE FOOTHILLS CENVECTION MAY KICK
OFF A COUPLE STORMS THAT MAKE IT OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS OVER THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT BY THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TO LOW 50S OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOME READINGS DOWN INTO
THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SKIES CLEAR.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT MOST STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I70 AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK
MORE STABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY THEN BE PUSHED
SOUTHEAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP DRAW UP SUBTROPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT OVERALL PICTURE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS
FOR THE RIDGE TO REMAIN SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH...LEAVING US IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN.
THE CANADIAN FOR NOW IS THE OUTLIER WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A BOUNDARY IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AIRPORT WHICH MAY SWITCH THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH BY 03Z. MEANWHILE THERE ARE SOME STORMS
NEAR FNL MOVING SE WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT BY 10 PM IF THEYHOLD
TOGETHER SO MAY HAVE TO PUT VCTS IN THE 03Z TAF FOR A FEW HOURS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1108 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO CLEAR POPS OUT OF MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST INTO KANSAS. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST INTO
KANSAS. WEAKER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL IMPACTING
PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE
NIGHT. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EXPIRED THE WATCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AT 7 PM. EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 8
PM. A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLOODING. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AREAS ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY INTO BACA COUNTIES...ARE
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS OVER
BACA COUNTY HAVE SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR...AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING...FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PUEBLO AREA. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONTINUED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
KCOS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 10Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
KALS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY IMPACT KALS. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KPUB FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1051 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AIR MASS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH PWAT AROUND 2.1 INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA IN DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. BOTH RUC AND
GFS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. WILL INDICATE CATEGORICAL INTO THE THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE MIDLANDS AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE CSRA.
POPS DECREASING TOWARDS DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY DRIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN
WITH DEPTHS NEAR 574 DAM WHICH FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HAVE STAYED WITH OR RAISED SLIGHTLY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
IN THE NEAR TERM...AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS...OVER OUR FA LATE
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SUCH. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY
FAVORED. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AIR MASS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH PWAT AROUND 2.1 INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA IN DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. BOTH RUC AND
GFS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. WILL INDICATE CATEGORICAL INTO THE THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE MIDLANDS AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE CSRA.
POPS DECREASING TOWARDS DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY DRIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN
WITH DEPTHS NEAR 574 DAM WHICH FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HAVE STAYED WITH OR RAISED SLIGHTLY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR INDICATING SCT TSRA MAINLY E AND S FORECAST AREA (FA). LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH
UNTIL CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AND TS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS INCREASES.
WEDGE BOUNDARY TO OUR NE EXPECTED TO SLIP BACK DOWN INTO OUR FA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS...OVER OUR FA LATE
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SUCH. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY
FAVORED. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
326 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
A LARGELY QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH HEAT THE ONE TRADEMARK OF AUGUST THAT IS MISSING.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOW WELL DEFINED CLOSED
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX NEAR STL.
SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THIS CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO
FLIRT WITH OUR SOUTHERN MOST CWA WITH THIS TREND LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
LIKELY RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND GRADUALLY MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
POLAR FRONT JET IS IN ITS SEASONABLY FAVORED POSITION WELL TO OUR
NORTH OVER CANADA WITH WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL JET PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
WEAKER SHORT WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE
SUCH WAVE OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS
WAVE...THOUGH CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS WAS TO HOLD OFF ON HITTING
THESE CHANCES TOO HARD GIVEN THE LACK OF QPF IN THE ECMWF/GFS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST NORTHERN STREAM JET TO GROW
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/MON NIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP...WITH A
TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUES-THURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S...THOUGH ANY DAY WITH MORE PROMINENT
CLOUD COVER COULD FEATURE MORE MID-UPPER 70S (LIKE OUR SOUTHERN CWA
TODAY).DEEPENING TROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MORE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE
70S. IT LOOKS LIKE NEARLY EVERY ONE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FEATURE
WEAK SYNOPTIC EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE
BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS 5-8F COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT TODAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10 KT OR SO TODAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LAKE MICHIGAN
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING WHILE MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
218 AM CDT
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS LOOKING TO
BE LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY FAR SOUTH...AND FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE WAS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BELOW 15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE...THOUGH THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO AROUND 15
KT OR PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE MOST INFLUENCE ON WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF 15-20 OR 25 KT NORTHERLIES
LASTING FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
An upper level low pressure trough is centered over southern
Illinois early this morning. Quite moist conditions with
precipitable water values near 2 inches associated with the low
center. Primarily light showers are wrapping around the low into
central Illinois with some moderate to heavy showers over southern
Illinois. The system is progged to continue to move eastward today
with shortwave ridging moving into Illinois today...which will
result in subsident motion eventually diminishing shower activity.
With very limited instability over central Illinois, thunderstorm
activity has been non-existent the past several hours over central
Illinois and forecast keeps isolated thunder limited to southeast
Illinois today where there will be enough instability to produce
some. Highs primarily in the 70s are expected given the cool air
mass at low levels and extensive cloud cover. For Friday night,
another weak shortwave moves across the region, and could result in
a few more lingering showers overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Frontal boundary will remain draped from Kentucky to northern
Arkansas on Saturday. As a weak upper-level wave travels along the
boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the Ohio River Valley. Given proximity to boundary, have opted to
carry slight chance PoPs along/south of I-70, with dry weather
elsewhere around the area. Front will sag a bit further south on
Sunday, as high pressure over the Upper Midwest builds southward.
End result will be a partly sunny and dry day with highs reaching
the lower to middle 80s. After that, a series of upper waves is
expected to drop out of Canada, re-establishing the persistent upper
trough over the Great Lakes by the middle and end of next week.
First wave and associated cold front will arrive on Monday, with
sufficient forcing and moisture to warrant low chance PoPs for
showers/thunder. Second wave will arrive on Tuesday: however,
forcing will be weaker and best moisture will be shunted well to the
east across Indiana/Kentucky. ECMWF is largely dry with this
feature, while GFS continues scattered precip. Will only carry a
slight chance PoP for Tuesday at this time, but think it will
probably be removed entirely if current trends continue. Once the
second wave passes, high pressure will introduce cooler and less
humid conditions for next Wednesday/Thursday, with afternoon highs
in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s both days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A few adjustments for these TAFs as the low is progged to move
remain south of most of the ILX terminals as it moves to the east
tomorrow. Very slow moving low keeping low cigs and rain over much
of the area. Some redevelopment previously in the models is
starting to fade, HRRR and NAM showing very little in the way of
redevelopment for the morning hours before 18z. Keeping rain
predominant through the early morning and the day in SPI and DEC,
and some through the day for CMI, but reducing for PIA and BMI.
VCTS for SPI and DEC closer to the low center, and lingering the
MVFR clouds a little longer. Forecast may be pessimistic towards
the end of the forecast regarding clearing, but with timing
confidence low in the slow moving and weakening system, not going
to clear it out just yet.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
236 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 24 HOURS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN A
DRIVER IN KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TRYING TO LIFT NORTH...HOWEVER THE MUCH DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW IS ERODING THE LEADING EDGE. OVERNIGHT SKIES SHUD
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PAINT SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRENGTH OF THE ANTI-CYCLONIC EXPECT WHATEVER
PRECIP THAT CAN LIFT NORTH WILL BE LIGHT AND PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY HOLD AROUND 60 TO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BROAD SFC RIDGE APPEARS TO CONTINUE AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THRU
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE PRECIP SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE SLIDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI/SAT...HOWEVER EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 70S FRI/SAT...NEARING THE LOW 80S
SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO PROG FURTHER CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A RIDGE WEST/EAST RESULTING
IN A TROUGH GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OPER SOLUTIONS
HAVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MON/TUE
WITH ANOTHER LESS POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING
EAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST REGION MON NGT/TUE. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW CHC POPS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TREND DRY
GIVEN A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AND A LARGER SFC RIDGE ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY TREND BACK
TOWARDS SUB-SEASONAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT TODAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10 KT OR SO TODAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LAKE MICHIGAN
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING WHILE MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CDT
THE PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH EAST 10-20 KT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MAY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE REACH INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN VARY BETWEEN EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY SEE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THE SOUTH HALF SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE MODEL HAS A STRONGER LOW MOVING OVER
THE LAKE WHILE ANOTHER HAS A WEAK LOW PASSING JUST TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONGER NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT PSBL OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN NORTH THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Low pressure center just southwest of ILX, and main areas of rain
have shifted just a bit east, though scattered rain showers are
anticipated in the southern half through the evening and overnight
hours. Models hinting at another wave of showers after midnight
rotating around the low, though timing differs from one model to
the next. Some minor updates for near steady temp trends and the
shifting pop...but all in all the forecast is going well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Upper low over northeast Missouri this afternoon, with a
corresponding surface low a little further south near Columbia. This
is progged to move very little over the next 24 hours, resulting in
periods of showers and scattered storms moving through the forecast
area. Locations north of I-74 have struggled to see any rain this
today with some drier air, and high-resolution models suggest this
may be the case through most of the evening as well. Further
southwest, main tropical surge oriented along the Illinois/Missouri
border with precipitable water values close to 2 inches per latest
SPC mesoanalysis. That area has already seen 2 to 5 inches of rain.
Higher PWAT values shift a bit further northeast with time, but
heavier rain axis tonight will be more into areas southeast of I-72
with 1/2 to 1 inch common.
On Friday, the low will finally start to push southeast as a weak
upper wave currently in northern Utah pushes into Nebraska. Much of
the precipitation in our area will be in the morning hours, before
diminishing from north to south in the afternoon. Have kept highs in
the mid to upper 70s as cloud cover should remain extensive through
the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
The influence of the slow moving low pressure system should begin to
wane on Friday night, as the low moves just east of Illinois and
drier air wraps into Illinois behind the low. The proximity of the
low and trailing surface trough to the west of the low could allow
for isolated showers to linger Friday evening south of I-72. Rain
chances should diminish even further on Saturday to areas southeast
of I-70. There is a wide spread in the model solutions for the
Friday night and Saturday time frame, with the GFS and NAM being
more aggressive with precip and the ECMWF and Canadian being drier.
Therefore we continued to only acknowledged rain with slight chance
PoPs during that time.
The remainder of the weekend should be dry as the low pressure
trough sags farther south and east of Illinois, allowing a deeper
layer of dry air to advect into the area. The upper level flow will
be quasi-zonal or slightly northwest, which can allow for weak
shortwaves to progress into IL. The mostly likely scenario in the
extended guidance appears to be for any wave to be moisture starved
and not have enough forcing to generate precipitation.
The next window of opportunity for rain looks to be on Monday as a
cold front arrives from the NW. The better combination of
instability and moisture appears to be southeast of a line from
Shelbyville to Champaign, so we went with chance PoPs there and
slight chances in the remainder of the KILX CWA.
The ECMWF enhances an upper trough across the western Great Lakes
and into Illinois on Tuesday, while the GFS and Canadian keep the
center of the upper low farther north, along with the better precip
chances. We acknowledged the ECMWF with slight chance PoPs into
Tuesday for now. Dry conditions should return for Wed and Thurs as
upper level ridging develops behind the departing trough.
High temperatures are still expected to be on a very slow warming
trend from Friday through Tuesday as readings climb a degree or so
each day in general. Highs on Friday will remain around 80, with
mid-80s expected by Tuesday and Wednesday. A slight cooling trend is
forecast for Thursday, but only down to around 80 in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A few adjustments for these TAFs as the low is progged to move
remain south of most of the ILX terminals as it moves to the east
tomorrow. Very slow moving low keeping low cigs and rain over much
of the area. Some redevelopment previously in the models is
starting to fade, HRRR and NAM showing very little in the way of
redevelopment for the morning hours before 18z. Keeping rain
predominant through the early morning and the day in SPI and DEC,
and some through the day for CMI, but reducing for PIA and BMI.
VCTS for SPI and DEC closer to the low center, and lingering the
MVFR clouds a little longer. Forecast may be pessimistic towards
the end of the forecast regarding clearing, but with timing
confidence low in the slow moving and weakening system, not going
to clear it out just yet.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
CEILINGS THAT ARE MARKEDLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
IOWA THAN ACROSS THE WEST DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED BUT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHER
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL THAN ACROSS THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WEST AND HIGHER INSTABILITY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED/EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DID
USE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORDING BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF
THE HOPWRF AND THE HRRR WERE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH LESS PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE HRRR HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SO I LEANED MORE TOWARDS IT.
TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL TODAY THOUGH I DID NUDGE HIGHS A BIT WARMER
EAST WHERE I FELT THERE WOULD BE LESS OR HIGHER CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING BUT SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP PCPN
DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SOME
CONVECTION WILL PRESS INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME...SO
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF AXIS
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO LINGER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON MONDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS EASTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY KEEPS MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS AREAS OF WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTIRBUANCE WILL FACILITATE LONG-TERM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL EXCEPT THE KMCW AND KALO TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PD. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME LOWER CIGS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMCW AND
KALO AROUND SUNRISE TMRW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
CEILINGS THAT ARE MARKEDLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
IOWA THAN ACROSS THE WEST DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED BUT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHER
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL THAN ACROSS THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WEST AND HIGHER INSTABILITY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED/EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DID
USE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORDING BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF
THE HOPWRF AND THE HRRR WERE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH LESS PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE HRRR HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SO I LEANED MORE TOWARDS IT.
TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL TODAY THOUGH I DID NUDGE HIGHS A BIT WARMER
EAST WHERE I FELT THERE WOULD BE LESS OR HIGHER CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING BUT SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP PCPN
DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SOME
CONVECTION WILL PRESS INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME...SO
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF AXIS
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO LINGER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON MONDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS EASTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY KEEPS MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MESSY TAF FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FEEDING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS IS CAUSING
SCT/BKN CLOUDS OR HIER OVC CIGS. WESTERN IA WILL SEE LOWER CIGS AS
THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT PAST KFOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE IOWA TODAY THROUGH 02-
03Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING BACK LOWER CIGS WITH SOME
INCREASED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF IA. MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER TAFS AFT 02Z ALONG WITH SOME FOG.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
CEILINGS THAT ARE MARKEDLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
IOWA THAN ACROSS THE WEST DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED BUT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHER
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL THAN ACROSS THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WEST AND HIGHER INSTABILITY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED/EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DID
USE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORDING BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF
THE HOPWRF AND THE HRRR WERE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH LESS PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE HRRR HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SO I LEANED MORE TOWARDS IT.
TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL TODAY THOUGH I DID NUDGE HIGHS A BIT WARMER
EAST WHERE I FELT THERE WOULD BE LESS OR HIGHER CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING BUT SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP PCPN
DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SOME
CONVECTION WILL PRESS INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME...SO
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF AXIS
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO LINGER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON MONDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS EASTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY KEEPS MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AT 03Z WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS IOWA. SOME DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO
CENTRAL IOWA FROM THE EAST BASED ON THE SURFACE TRAJECTORIES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA NORTH OF 850 MB LOW PARKED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS RESULT IN
THE LACK OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS. EXPECT ST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE MIXES
BY 18Z FRIDAY AND RAISED THE CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED FORECAST NO DOUBT PROMPTED PRIMARILY BY ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #458 THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL KS AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY. ALSO FINE-TUNED POPS & ASSOCIATED
WEATHER & QPF GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH ANTICIPATED SHORT-TERM
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
TON-SUN: MESOSCALE AGAIN COMPLICATING WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY THAT LINGERS FROM CONVECTION THAT
MOVED INTO AND DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT
APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. RUC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM KEMP TO KCNK BETWEEN 22-23 UTC AND ADVECTING IT
WEST SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AT PRESENT...UNSURE HOW THIS
CONVECTION WILL INTERPLAY WITH CONVECTION THAT SYNOPTIC/MESO MODELS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. A
LARGE VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS KANSAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO COMPACT SHORT WAVE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE
VORTEX...AND JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
KANSAS. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF VARIANCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...FOR TIME
BEING DECIDED TO USE SREF/SSEO AS GUIDE FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE WHICH
BOTH ACCOUNT FOR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. MESOSCALE FORCING WILL DICTATE
PARTICULARS OF CONVECTIONS TRACK...HOWEVER EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF LARGE
SCALE VORTEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS BROADSCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS REGION SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF CWA BY 00 UTC ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION...WITH GUIDANCE
LOOKING REASONABLE.
MON-TUES: ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS
UPPER VORTEX MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA...WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER PLAINS RETROGRADES WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIRMASS
TO OVERSPREAD AREA...WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS EASTERN CANADA/U.S. VORTEX MOVES INTO THE
MARITIME REGION...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL. KANSAS/CWA WILL REMAIN ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY.
GEFS/OPERATIONAL MED-RANGE MODELS HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
SOLE BUT MAJOR CONCERN IS SVR +TSRA RELATED WITH ALL OF CNTRL KS AT
GREATEST RISK WHERE SVR #458 IS IN EFFECT TIL 07Z. KRSL & KSLN WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS (3-4SM +TSRA) FROM 05Z-11Z. HAVE APPLIED
"VCTS" TO KHUT & KICT FOR TIME BEING. UPDATES TO KRSL...KHUT...& KSLN
ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 89 68 87 / 50 30 20 10
HUTCHINSON 69 88 67 87 / 50 20 20 10
NEWTON 69 87 67 86 / 50 30 20 10
ELDORADO 69 89 67 86 / 50 40 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 90 69 87 / 50 40 30 10
RUSSELL 67 85 65 85 / 90 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 86 66 85 / 80 20 10 10
SALINA 69 87 66 87 / 60 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 69 87 67 87 / 50 30 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 73 91 69 88 / 50 50 40 10
CHANUTE 71 88 68 86 / 50 50 40 10
IOLA 70 87 68 85 / 50 50 40 10
PARSONS-KPPF 72 90 69 87 / 50 50 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
110 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LOWER THEM
LATER TODAY. CURRENT WV LOOP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING AS IT DEPARTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REPRESENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE AND ARE LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER FURTHER
ANALYSIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...QVECTORS ARE UNFAVORABLE...BUT MAY BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AND OMEGA FIELDS ARE
FAVORABLE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
MAY BE SEVERE. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEBULOUS...BUT HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THAT PATTERN WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW PROBABLY ENOUGH TO TAP INTO WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ZERO CIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING MID LEVELS WILL WORK AGAINST
CONVECTION...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST IN EASTERN COLORADO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND THE AXIS NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR POPS WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE WITH LOW SHEAR UNDER
THE RIDGE. BY LATE WEEK...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT SOUTH
AND WEST WHICH SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS LAST EVENING AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT EITHER
KGLD OR KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR A
PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LESS VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LOWER THEM
LATER TODAY. CURRENT WV LOOP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING AS IT DEPARTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REPRESENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE AND ARE LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER FURTHER
ANALYSIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS LAST EVENING AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT EITHER
KGLD OR KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR A
PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LESS VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LOWER THEM
LATER TODAY. CURRENT WV LOOP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING AS IT DEPARTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REPRESENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE AND ARE LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER FURTHER
ANALYSIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS MAIN AREA OF FOG JUST EAST OF KMCK...HOWEVER
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GOOD MOISTURE...AND FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINAL I DECIDED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF TAF. CONFIDENCE WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSILBE AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AT KGLD THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS MAIN AREA OF FOG JUST EAST OF KMCK...HOWEVER
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GOOD MOISTURE...AND FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINAL I DECIDED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF TAF. CONFIDENCE WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSILBE AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AT KGLD THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
CONTINUED COMPLICATED FORECAST DUE TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KGLD EARLY THEN COULD HAVE
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE OVER FROM THEM WEST. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
KMCK WILL GET CLOSE TO KMCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO PUT VCTS IN
THERE. MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.
DUE TO NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
CONTINUED COMPLICATED FORECAST DUE TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KGLD EARLY THEN COULD HAVE
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE OVER FROM THEM WEST. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
KMCK WILL GET CLOSE TO KMCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO PUT VCTS IN
THERE. MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.
DUE TO NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A TROUGH IS MOVING ON SHORE TODAY ON THE WESTERN COAST WITH MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
COMPLEX OF STORMS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) CURRENTLY OVER NW KS
CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KS.
THIS COMPLEX AND A VERY POTENT MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS HAS LED TO
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS. BIG QUESTION IS
HOW FAR EAST THE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI.
STEERING VECTORS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE SRN END OF THE NW KS COMPLEX...WITH PROPAGATION SE TOWARDS
KDDC. BUT THE MAIN MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS TAKE THE WHOLE MCS
STRAIGHT EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE MCS
OVER CENTRAL KS AND FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. SO THINK THE
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...REACHING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL SEE SOME OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM
THE MONSOONAL FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 06-10Z. SO
WILL BEEF UP POPS SOME IN CENTRAL KS...AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MAIN SYSTEMS BOTH THE CURRENT HIGH AND PROGRESSING TROUGH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SITUATED AND EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THESE RIPPLES ARE OFFSET
AND ALMOST DOING THEIR OWN THING. A MESSY PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES GIVEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REACHING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CHANCES MAINLY REACHING
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WIDER AREA OF EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR GIVEN ITS DECENT FORECAST SUCCESS WITH THE
ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT...WAS UTILIZED FOR ASSISTANCE IN
ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL STUFF WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LESS SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY THAN LAST NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE SHEAR AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS WERE ALTERED AND WILL VERY WELL BE TWEAKED
WITH EACH FORECAST GIVEN THE ATTEMPTS OF THE MODELS TO GET A
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JUANITA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A RIDGE IS SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
RESPECTIVE FEATURES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING AN IMPACT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL AND RESPECTIVE RUN THAT ONE WOULD LIKE TO CONSIDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.
JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
EXPECT SOME DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN WRN KS
CURRENTLY MOVES EAST INTO KRSL AND KGBD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS
WITH THIS LINE TO EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KGBD
AND POSSIBLY KHUT...BUT THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX WILL BE DUE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TSRA
ACROSS THE KRSL/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY THE KSLN/KICT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.
SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KHUT INITIALLY WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KRSL/KHUT FOR SOME POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS. THINK
THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM KSLN TO
NEAR KICT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AT LEAST
12-14Z/FRI.
NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN INTACT AS IT SHIFTS
EAST FOR FRI MORNING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KCNU.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SOME MORNING MVFR VSBY CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST
KS NEAR KCNU...WITH 3-5SM BR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-14Z/FRI. COULD ALSO
SEE AN IFR CLOUD DECK MOVE INTO KCNU FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING
AS WELL.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 92 69 91 / 40 20 30 40
HUTCHINSON 68 91 68 90 / 40 20 40 40
NEWTON 68 90 68 88 / 40 20 40 40
ELDORADO 68 90 70 89 / 40 30 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 92 70 92 / 40 30 30 40
RUSSELL 67 89 67 86 / 50 20 40 40
GREAT BEND 67 89 67 88 / 50 20 40 40
SALINA 67 91 70 87 / 40 20 50 40
MCPHERSON 67 90 68 89 / 40 20 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 70 91 69 91 / 30 30 30 40
CHANUTE 68 90 68 89 / 30 30 30 50
IOLA 68 89 68 88 / 30 30 30 50
PARSONS-KPPF 69 91 68 90 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WENT IN AND FINE TUNED THE POPS AND
WEATHER GRIDS ONCE MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER POSSIBLE ONSET OF
PRECIP. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS SHIFT LEFT OTHER PARAMETERS IN GOOD SHAPE.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN FORECAST. CURRENT CHANGES WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW SET OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...BUT
FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4Z ZONE PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE POPS DOWN TO 15 PERCENT.
ALSO NUDGED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF
ZONES FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THE RETREAT FROM
KENTUCKY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND ITS WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...SOME CLEAR PATCHES
THROUGH MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL SHORTLY BE FILLED IN BY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. ON RADAR...THE
NEAREST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A STEADY APPROACH TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE CWA DRY
THROUGH 06Z...BUT THEN BRINGS CONVECTION INTO OUR DOMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE PRESERVED THE HIGHER POPS
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHILE TAPERING THEM BACK THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE BACKING OFF THEIR EARLIER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...FALLING A FEW DEGREES WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS READINGS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION. ASIDE FROM THE POP AND WX
ADJUSTMENTS...ADDED A BIT MORE FOG LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZONE ISSUANCE TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THERE IS A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. AS THIS LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST...IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START MOVING INTO WAYNE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST ENGULFING ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL WINDOW ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET STRONG...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM WHERE THE FRONT
BECOMES STALLED OVER THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HYDROLOGICAL WITH 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...HAVE HELD OFF PUTTING
OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE THE RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36
HOUR PERIOD AND IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE. THERE WILL LIKELY TO SOME
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER IN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WITH DITCHES...STREAMS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO LAY DOWN
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AS A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A
DISTURBANCE IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE AMPLIFIED APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING OVER AND THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS KEEPS A PERMANENT BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY..ESSENTIALLY
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
ESPECIALLY CONCERNING...IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THEN EXTENDED WHERE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PWATS IN THE 1.70
TO 1.90 RANGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE
MAY BE SOME CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ALL BLEND
MODEL DOES AGREE WITH THIS SITUATION AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS
GIVEN FOR THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK...BESIDES A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND EURO LIE WITH THE GFS BEING TOO STRONG
WITH THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK WITH THE EURO
MAINTAINING THE SUMMER LIKE WEAK FLOW A BIT LONGER. THOUGH
DIFFERENCES SEEM MINOR...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIE WITH THE WEEKEND
AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
$$
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO KSME AND NEARING KLOZ. PRECIP IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO DROP TO THE MVFR LEVEL
BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DEEP VALLEY
OR RAIN INDUCED FOG DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE PRECIP MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
USED THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO ESTIMATE
WHEN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO KLOZ...KJKL...AND KSME. GIVEN THE
BROKENNESS OF THE LEADING EDGE...STARTED OFF WITH VCSH AT THESE
SITES...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
INTRODUCED THUNDER BACK INTO FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS WELL WITH THE
INCREASE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. USED A BEST GUESS FOR OVERALL CIG
AND VIS IMPACTS...THOUGH TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE UP AND
DOWN AS STORMS PASS OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
833 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH THIS EVENING/S BALLOON THAT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 22
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING WEST OF LAKE MAUREPAS.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE SLOW MOVERS WITH
0-6KM STORM MOTION OF 300 AT 4 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN HIGH AT 2.15 INCHES AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SHOW SPOTS
WITH AROUND 2 INCH. THE LOW LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 850MB WERE NOT
OVERLY MOIST...BUT FROM 850-500MB THE PROFILE WAS MOISTER WHICH
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE BALLOON PASSING THROUGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTER
MID-LEVELS...NOTE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER FROM 24
HOURS AGO. AS FOR WINDS...THEY WERE GENERALLY VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 450MB. ABOVE
450MB...WINDS WERE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST WHICH CAN BE CONFIRMED
BY VIEWING IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING.
ANSORGE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH THE HIGH REACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO
EASILY OVERCOME ANY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
IN GENERAL COMPARED TO YSTRDY. STORM MOTION HAS FALLEN OFF A BIT
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE THAT MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME SAYS
OTHERWISE. THIS DAILY TREND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
LOWER/MID 90 HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND HEAD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WEST. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE CWA IN AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING RIGHT
OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM AREAL ENHANCEMENT FOR
A FEW DAYS. DOES NOT APPEAR SVR WX WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH WETBULB HT
14KFT AND ABOVE AS WELL AS VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THE TAF SITES...PRIMARILY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY PRIOR TO AND AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING FROM KHUM AND KMCB. 18
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF
MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY STALL
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 18
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 93 74 92 / 20 50 20 50
BTR 76 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 40
ASD 75 93 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
MSY 77 92 78 91 / 20 50 20 40
GPT 78 91 78 92 / 20 50 20 40
PQL 74 91 73 91 / 20 50 30 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WASHINGTON AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DIMINUTION OF CVRG OF SHWRS/TSTMS
PROGRESSING SWRD FROM FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR
REF SHOWS THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EVE HRS. SO WE USED THE TM
FUNCTION TO MOVE AHEAD THE END TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS 2-3 HRS SOONER
THIS EVE THAN THE LAST FCST UPDATE...BUT NOT TO FAST TO TRUNCATE
CURRENT CVRG IN LEGACY ZONE WORDING...SPCLY CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS. OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD CLR OVR MOST OF THE FA LATER
TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS ERN PTNS BORDERING NB PROV...WERE PTLY CLDY
SKIES AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY HANG ON DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT IN
THE VICINITY TO PTNS OF THE FA THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL FROM
THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT NRLY GRADIENT BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR FOG TO MATERIALIZE...SO HELD OFF MENTIONING IN GRIDS FOR
LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT MORN FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FA ON SAT...WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY HI ALF DIGGING SE OVR THE
FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EWRD DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVR THE
MARITIMES BY SAT AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTN CLDNSS AND
SCT SHWRS MSLY OVR NE CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WITH FCST
AFTN MAX SBCAPE XPCTD TO BE LESS (MSLY LESS THAN 500J/KG) SAT AFTN
THAN THIS CURRENT AFTN...FOR NOW WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING WITH GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT POPS. WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE XPCTD...AFTN HI TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
WARMER THAN THIS AFTN...SPCLY OVR LOWER WRN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 80. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINE TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW WITH REGION BACK IN WARM
SECTOR AND DECENT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP THIS POINT.
LESS AGREEMENT CREEPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT OFF NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
WE GO INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME MORE ON THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING MOST
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE
THINKING 06Z SOLUTION IS FAST. THE MODEL BLEND WILL PUT SOME
WEIGHT TOWARD THE WPC GRID WHICH WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. THEREFORE USING THIS APPROACH WILL NOT BRING PRECIP IN
QUITE AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUSION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A RESULT WILL KEEP REGION
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM AND TRAILING OFF INTO
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN AN REMNANT TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHWRS THRU ERLY EVE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR OVRNGT
INTO SAT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH
WINDS AND WV WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. DUE TO THE SIG REMNANT SWELL
COMPONENT TO THE TOTAL WV HTS...WE STAYED CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR OUTER MZS AND AND
LESS ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/MCW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DIMINUATION OF CVRG OF SHWRS/TSTMS PROGRESSING
SWRD FROM FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR REF SHOWS
THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EVE HRS. SO WE USED THE TM FUNCTION TO
MOVE AHEAD THE END TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS 2-3 HRS SOONER THIS EVE
THAN THE LAST FCST UPDATE...BUT NOT TO FAST TO TRUNCATE CURRENT CVRG
IN LEGACY ZONE WORDING...SPCLY CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS. OTHERWISE...
SKIES SHOULD CLR OVR MOST OF THE FA LATER TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS ERN
PTNS BORDERING NB PROV...WERE PTLY CLDY SKIES AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY
HANG ON DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT IN THE VICINITY TO PTNS OF THE FA
THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL FROM THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT NRLY
GRADIENT BREEZE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR FOG TO MATERIALIZE...SO HELD
OFF MENTIONING IN GRIDS FOR LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT MORN FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FA ON SAT...WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY HI ALF DIGGING SE OVR THE
FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EWRD DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVR THE
MARITIMES BY SAT AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTN CLDNSS AND
SCT SHWRS MSLY OVR NE CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WITH FCST
AFTN MAX SBCAPE XPCTD TO BE LESS (MSLY LESS THAN 500J/KG) SAT AFTN
THAN THIS CURRENT AFTN...FOR NOW WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING WITH GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT POPS. WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE XPCTD...AFTN HI TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
WARMER THAN THIS AFTN...SPCLY OVR LOWER WRN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 80. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINE TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW WITH REGION BACK IN WARM
SECTOR AND DECENT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP THIS POINT.
LESS AGREEMENT CREEPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT OFF NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
WE GO INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME MORE ON THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING MOST
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE
THINKING 06Z SOLUTION IS FAST. THE MODEL BLEND WILL PUT SOME
WEIGHT TOWARD THE WPC GRID WHICH WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. THEREFORE USING THIS APPROACH WILL NOT BRING PRECIP IN
QUITE AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUSION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A RESULT WILL KEEP REGION
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM AND TRAILING OFF INTO
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN AN REMNANT TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHWRS THRU ERLY EVE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR OVRNGT
INTO SAT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH
WINDS AND WV WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. DUE TO THE SIG REMNANT SWELL
COMPONENT TO THE TOTAL WV HTS...WE STAYED CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR OUTER MZS AND AND
LESS ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1058 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MBE
VELOCITIES NEAR ZERO AND PW VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ALREADY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TERRAIN...BUT WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY IF TOTALS THAT HIGH BEGIN TO INTRUDE
INTO WRN MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE A CLOSED
LOW OVER NE SODAK...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
THE CANADIAN WAVE HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
CANADIAN WAVE WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE SODAK
UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER MN AND WASHES OUT IN THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN
TROUGH. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT NW MN SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
SLOWLY SINKING INTO CENTRAL MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN TREND FROM MODELS THIS EVENING WAS TO SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIP...AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT KEEP ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION MAKES SENSE AS WELL
WHEN LOOKING AT DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THIS DRY AIR FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON EAST.
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HI-RES MODELS ON PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY
IN ERN SODAK/WRN MN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...UPPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OUT WEST...WHILE ALSO LIMITING THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF POPS THROUGH THE WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD...KEEPING
THE EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH AREAS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR...LIMITED CAPE...AND LOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL MOST OF THE DAY...WITH 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
NOTED FROM NE SODAK INTO YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES.
MAKES SENSE WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...FAIRLY STATIONARY FORCING...AND
PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH NOT AS HIGH ON
AMOUNTS...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE SAME AREA
FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL...SO GAVE BOTH POPS AND QPF A
BIG BOOST IN WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO MN...WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL DAY WEST OF I-35. HAVE CONTINUED
TO FAVOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AS THIS IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SODAK WILL BE MUCH LESS
DEFINED...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BRACKETED BY SOME PCPN CHANCES ON
EITHER END... WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. WE/LL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY JUST TO
OUR EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
BRING SOME PCPN THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER... THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THINGS THEN DE-AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER... THERE ARE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE BY THAT POINT... AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
HASN/T BEEN THE GREATEST IN ANY OF THE MODEL SUITES. WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT
ON THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT IN THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IN TERMS OF DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER... THE
THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS STILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF FORCING THROUGH
THE AREA... WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA GIVEN THE DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. PCPN WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
INTO MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. WE/LL THEN SEE RETURN FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF/WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK THROUGH THE AREA AFTER WE SEE THE WARM ADVECTION AND WORK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH... AND SUGGESTS IT COULD BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MORE OF
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AND PROGRESSIVE LOOK TO THINGS. HOWEVER... IN
EITHER CASE IT LOOKS LIKE WE/D NEED TO LINGER SOME POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN IS MAKING SOMEWHAT
STEADY PROGRESS EAST...AND IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL AFFECT
RWF/STC/MSP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS FOR A TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
KMSP...PERIOD OF -SHRA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE ACTIVITY LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND ROUND IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO CONTINUED THE
PROB30 IDEA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA IN MORNING. BECOMING VFR IN
AFTERNOON NNW WINDS 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MBE
VELOCITIES NEAR ZERO AND PW VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ALREADY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TERRAIN...BUT WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY IF TOTALS THAT HIGH BEGIN TO INTRUDE
INTO WRN MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE A CLOSED
LOW OVER NE SODAK...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
THE CANADIAN WAVE HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
CANADIAN WAVE WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE SODAK
UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER MN AND WASHES OUT IN THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN
TROUGH. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT NW MN SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
SLOWLY SINKING INTO CENTRAL MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN TREND FROM MODELS THIS EVENING WAS TO SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIP...AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT KEEP ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION MAKES SENSE AS WELL
WHEN LOOKING AT DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THIS DRY AIR FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON EAST.
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HI-RES MODELS ON PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY
IN ERN SODAK/WRN MN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...UPPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OUT WEST...WHILE ALSO LIMITING THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF POPS THROUGH THE WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD...KEEPING
THE EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH AREAS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR...LIMITED CAPE...AND LOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL MOST OF THE DAY...WITH 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
NOTED FROM NE SODAK INTO YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES.
MAKES SENSE WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...FAIRLY STATIONARY FORCING...AND
PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH NOT AS HIGH ON
AMOUNTS...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE SAME AREA
FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL...SO GAVE BOTH POPS AND QPF A
BIG BOOST IN WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO MN...WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL DAY WEST OF I-35. HAVE CONTINUED
TO FAVOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AS THIS IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SODAK WILL BE MUCH LESS
DEFINED...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BRACKETED BY SOME PCPN CHANCES ON
EITHER END... WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. WE/LL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY JUST TO
OUR EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
BRING SOME PCPN THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER... THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THINGS THEN DE-AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER... THERE ARE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE BY THAT POINT... AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
HASN/T BEEN THE GREATEST IN ANY OF THE MODEL SUITES. WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT
ON THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT IN THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IN TERMS OF DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER... THE
THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS STILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF FORCING THROUGH
THE AREA... WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA GIVEN THE DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. PCPN WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
INTO MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. WE/LL THEN SEE RETURN FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF/WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK THROUGH THE AREA AFTER WE SEE THE WARM ADVECTION AND WORK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH... AND SUGGESTS IT COULD BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MORE OF
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AND PROGRESSIVE LOOK TO THINGS. HOWEVER... IN
EITHER CASE IT LOOKS LIKE WE/D NEED TO LINGER SOME POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. AXN AND RWF
STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT RAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF LOCATIONS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT AXN/STC/RWF FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FURTHER EAST.
KMSP...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA IN MORNING. BECOMING VFR IN
AFTERNOON NNW WINDS 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
403 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Tonight-Saturday:
Weak zonal flow resulting in fairly quiet weather next 30 hours. In
the very near term what`s left of a weak MCV moving into northwest MO
late is likely to generate little if any precipitation as the feature
works its way through a stable environment. Main concern is how long
stratus will linger as well as fog potential. Considering how moist
the boundary layer is plus light winds under a nocturnal inversion
believe conditions favor fog development. SREF visibility prog and
UPS fog output also support fog formation. Pockets of dense fog
certainly possible in locally favored regions. RUC and NAM
condensation pressure deficit progs also maintain low clouds over at
least northeast MO through the night.
Saturday looks rain-free with warmer temperatures, albeit still
below normal, owing to the likelihood of seeing sunshine.
Saturday night-Sunday night:
This period still holds our best chance of seeing convective
activity. The upper flow remains weak and zonal. However, the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF have shown continuity/consistency with a weak shortwave
trough coming out of the southeast WY/NE Panhandle area late Saturday
afternoon/evening. These models track the feature ese and generate a
convective complex. The southerly low level jet is not particularly
strong nor is there a frontal boundary to enhance the low-level
convergence so how long the convection holds together is still
debatable. For now, can justify increasing PoPs over the western CWA
late Saturday night and Sunday. Of interest is the ECMWF and LSX`s
local WRF models which generate a second and possible stronger area
of convection with a cold front that drags through the region late
Sunday afternoon and evening. Lacking confirmation from the NAM and
GFS prevents me from ratcheting up PoPs for this period but it does
bear watching. Heavy rainfall may need to be considered in later
forecasts once there is a better handle on the longevity of possible
MCS. Max temperatures will likely be problematic due to precipitation
and cloud cover distribution. Did trend them lower over the northern
and western CWA.
Monday-Thursday:
An old friend is about to revisit us as the upper flow transition
once again to a sharpening upper trough from the Great Lakes through
the OH Valley and the upper ridge pumping up over the Rockies. This
will leave us in northwest flow aloft as well as on the east side and
northerly winds of a surface high spreading across the central U.S.
This pattern has repeated itself several times this summer and has
resulted in much cooler than average temperatures. Models are
trending this way but look too slow/warm initially....which is
typical. So, have lowered temperatures during this period. Should be
a dry period although widely scattered convection could pop up mainly
Monday afternoon as a weak vorticity lobe drops through IA and
eastern half of MO.
Thursday night-Friday:
The Rockies upper ridge shows signs of breaking down with a possible
shortwave trough shoving east through the Central Plains. This is
enough to add in some chance PoPs as well as allow temperatures to
warm closer to seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MVFR cigs covering most of northern and west central MO will be slow
to clear from west to east this afternoon. Good chance northeast MO
will remain in MVFR inot this evening. Plenty of low-level moisture
will remain trapped as the nocturnal inversion and with very light
winds overnight this favors MVFR fog forming with pockets of dense
fog possible in locally favored areas such as KSTJ. Fog should lift
quickly after sunrise.
Could see weakening convection moving into far northwest very late
tonight. Shoudl be confined to far northwest MO if it makes it that
far. Otherwise, just convective debris cloudiness spilling across
northern and west central MO.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Earlier upstream convection associated with MCV dissipated over east
central KS as it moved into a stable environment. Could still see
some isolated afternoon convection and PoPs adjusted lower to reflect
this. Minor adjustments made to temperatures but earlier trend
towards cooler remains.
UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Several adjustments made to the short term portion of the forecast.
First, northeast boundary layer winds associated with weak surface
low over east central MO is maintaining wrap around stratus over much
of the CWA. Latest NAM/RUC low-level condensation pressure deficit
progs hold onto this cloud cover longer, most notably over the
northeastern CWA where it will likely remain cloudy all day. Convective
cloud debris tied to weakening convection moving across southern
KS/northern OK will affect at least the western CWA. In addition,
small cluster of low-topped convection moving towards east central KS
is associated with a MCV. 13Z HRRR just arriving and is starting to
pick up on this activity. Believe the convection will have some legs
and could make it into west central MO by around 18z. Have increased
PoPs over the far western CWA to account for this. Have also lowered
temperatures to account for increased cloud cover and precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Regional radars showing decaying MCS activity across central KS this
morning as a pair of shortwave disturbances crest a mid-level ridge
over the central Plains. Overall impact across our region will
likely be limited to residual cloud cover as high-res models suggest
activity will dissipate with further eastward progress. Closer to our
neck of the woods...boundary layer moisture trapped below nocturnal
inversion is leading to a fair amount of low stratus and fog across
the region this morning. As was the case yesterday...current low
clouds will delay daytime heating to some degree which will help
keep high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon...some
4-8 degrees below normal. Fcst models do develop some precipitation
across the area today...however with the only real forcing coming
from a weak shortwave later on...have decided to cap pops in the slgt
chc category.
For tonight...mostly dry conditions expected as sfc ridging from
parent high pressure positioned across the western Great Lakes
becomes firmly established across our region. Despite the passage of
a fairly decent shortwave...overall available moisture will be
limited thanks to the strengthening ridge axis. That said...cannot
totally rule out a stray shwr or two and this have kept slgt chc pops
going for areas south of I-70.
Nebulous wx pattern to continue right into Sat with sfc ridging
remaining in control. This feature should deflect best chances for
precip south of the region as ridge axis continues to sharpen with
time through the day. As a result...have maintained a dry fcst with
highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Fcst becomes a bit more interesting come Sun/Sun Ngt as a high
building south from the western Canada nudges a central High Plains
low east with time. As this occurs...shortwave energy will translate
southeast from the northern Plains which will ultimately provide
increasing mid-level forcing for ascent by Sunday night. From this
vantage point...return moisture looks be be fairly limited thanks for
a limited low-level jet response...however enough lingering moisture
should be in place to help initiate redeveloping shwr/storm activity
Sunday night/early Monday. Lingering precip will exit stage right
Monday afternoon with high pressure set to arrive early Tuesday.
Dry and tranquil wx expected through much of early next week as high
pressure remains in firm control. Expect below normal temps to
continue through much of the extended as northeasterly flow is
maintained as high pressure remains parked over the western Great
Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MVFR cigs covering most of northern and west central MO will be slow
to clear from west to east this afternoon. Good chance northeast MO
will remain in MVFR inot this evening. Plenty of low-level moisture
will remain trapped as the nocturnal inversion and with very light
winds overnight this favors MVFR fog forming with pockets of dense
fog possible in locally favored areas such as KSTJ. Fog should lift
quickly after sunrise.
Could see weakening convection moving into far northwest very late
tonight. Shoudl be confined to far northwest MO if it makes it that
far. Otherwise, just convective debris cloudiness spilling across
northern and west central MO.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Short range guidance depicting some variability with remnants of
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma MCS, most notably the HRRR which
maintains a northeast development. This solution is at odds with
RUC and 12z NAM and discounted due to observed trends. Question
then becomes maintenance into this afternoon as the weakening
front descends into Arkansas. Have updated to bump POPs up a bit
over far se Kansas and far sw Missouri during the late morning
into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop
along a stalled boundary across southern Missouri early this
morning. This was mainly in response to the upper level wave that was
making slow eastward progress over the past 24 hours. This feature
is expected to shift east of the region this morning with
diminishing coverage of rain.
The rain potential may increase later today however as a storm
complex over central Kansas continues to make steady progression
eastward. This complex is associated with another upper level
short wave. Models have advertised a weakening of the northern
extent of the complex with the main area of the system diving
south of the Ozarks later today. This may still happen, however,
with the current track of the system and the lack of noticeable
deterioration, have included some rain chances for today and into
tonight. If the system starts to behave more in line with what the
models expect, will need to modify the going forecast. For now
though, the system looks to be able to hold together long enough
that is should make it to the Ozarks.
Chances for additional rainfall will remain in the forecast
through tonight as a result of several weak shortwaves continuing
to break down the upper level ridge that had been in place the
earlier this week. This flatter flow, along with the weak short
waves, will interact with the rather moist air mass in place to
continue the chance for scattered showers and storms through the
overnight hours into early Saturday morning.
The transition from upper ridge to northwest flow and expected
cloud cover will also bring slight cooler daytime highs.
Afternoon highs for this time of year normally run around 90
degrees. At this point, am only expecting highs to climb near 90
in very far southwestern Missouri with cooler reading across
central Missouri in the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A northwest flow pattern, unusual for this time of year will
persist through this upcoming weekend and into early next week and
provide several chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact
the Ozarks region. This will also bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the area with daytime highs only expected to be
in the 80s for most of the region through next week.
The upper level ridge will attempt to move back over the region
late next week. However, models show another short wave moving
out of the Pacific Northwest and knocking the ridge down once more
and bringing additional chances for rain and storms for late next
week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Weak High Pressure will dominate Southwestern Missouri into early
this evening. The latest in a series of weak upper level
disturbances will track through the area tonight and bring the
risk of some shower activity to the area with the chance of
embedded thunderstorms at BBG and JLN. Included a brief period of
IFR at SGF due to ceilings and visibility and for visibility only
at BBG and JLN as abundant ambient low level moisture and clearing
or partially clearing skies will bring a decent possibility of
early morning fog or low stratus formation. Expect any fog or low
stratus to burn off an hour or so after sunrise due to rapid
morning warming.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Colucci
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
946 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Short range guidance depicting some variability with remnants of
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma MCS, most notably the HRRR which
maintains a northeast development. This solution is at odds with
RUC and 12z NAM and discounted due to observed trends. Question
then becomes maintenance into this afternoon as the weakening
front descends into Arkansas. Have updated to bump POPs up a bit
over far se Kansas and far sw Missouri during the late morning
into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop
along a stalled boundary across southern Missouri early this
morning. This was mainly in response to the upper level wave that was
making slow eastward progress over the past 24 hours. This feature
is expected to shift east of the region this morning with
diminishing coverage of rain.
The rain potential may increase later today however as a storm
complex over central Kansas continues to make steady progression
eastward. This complex is associated with another upper level
short wave. Models have advertised a weakening of the northern
extent of the complex with the main area of the system diving
south of the Ozarks later today. This may still happen, however,
with the current track of the system and the lack of noticeable
deterioration, have included some rain chances for today and into
tonight. If the system starts to behave more in line with what the
models expect, will need to modify the going forecast. For now
though, the system looks to be able to hold together long enough
that is should make it to the Ozarks.
Chances for additional rainfall will remain in the forecast
through tonight as a result of several weak shortwaves continuing
to break down the upper level ridge that had been in place the
earlier this week. This flatter flow, along with the weak short
waves, will interact with the rather moist air mass in place to
continue the chance for scattered showers and storms through the
overnight hours into early Saturday morning.
The transition from upper ridge to northwest flow and expected
cloud cover will also bring slight cooler daytime highs.
Afternoon highs for this time of year normally run around 90
degrees. At this point, am only expecting highs to climb near 90
in very far southwestern Missouri with cooler reading across
central Missouri in the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A northwest flow pattern, unusual for this time of year will
persist through this upcoming weekend and into early next week and
provide several chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact
the Ozarks region. This will also bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the area with daytime highs only expected to be
in the 80s for most of the region through next week.
The upper level ridge will attempt to move back over the region
late next week. However, models show another short wave moving
out of the Pacific Northwest and knocking the ridge down once more
and bringing additional chances for rain and storms for late next
week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: IFR visibility and/or ceilings are
moving southward from central MO and they will possibly make it
as far south as KJLN/KBBG before burning off later this morning. A
tough call on timing in terms of how long the clouds will persist
and lift. A slow moving diffuse boundary close to the MO/Ar line
will be the focus for some scattered shra/tsra later today and
will include a prob30 group for KBBG for now. Additional activity
along the boundary may develop over far sw MO again late in the taf
period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
939 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Several adjustments made to the short term portion of the forecast.
First, northeast boundary layer winds associated with weak surface
low over east central MO is maintaining wrap around stratus over much
of the CWA. Latest NAM/RUC low-level condensation pressure deficit
progs hold onto this cloud cover longer, most notably over the
northeastern CWA where it will likely remain cloudy all day. Convective
cloud debris tied to weakening convection moving across southern
KS/northern OK will affect at least the western CWA. In addition,
small cluster of low-topped convection moving towards east central KS
is associated with a MCV. 13Z HRRR just arriving and is starting to
pick up on this activity. Believe the convection will have some legs
and could make it into west central MO by around 18z. Have increased
PoPs over the far western CWA to account for this. Have also lowered
temperatures to account for increased cloud cover and precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Regional radars showing decaying MCS activity across central KS this
morning as a pair of shortwave disturbances crest a mid-level ridge
over the central Plains. Overall impact across our region will
likely be limited to residual cloud cover as high-res models suggest
activity will dissipate with further eastward progress. Closer to our
neck of the woods...boundary layer moisture trapped below nocturnal
inversion is leading to a fair amount of low stratus and fog across
the region this morning. As was the case yesterday...current low
clouds will delay daytime heating to some degree which will help
keep high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon...some
4-8 degrees below normal. Fcst models do develop some precipitation
across the area today...however with the only real forcing coming
from a weak shortwave later on...have decided to cap pops in the slgt
chc category.
For tonight...mostly dry conditions expected as sfc ridging from
parent high pressure positioned across the western Great Lakes
becomes firmly established across our region. Despite the passage of
a fairly decent shortwave...overall available moisture will be
limited thanks to the strengthening ridge axis. That said...cannot
totally rule out a stray shwr or two and this have kept slgt chc pops
going for areas south of I-70.
Nebulous wx pattern to continue right into Sat with sfc ridging
remaining in control. This feature should deflect best chances for
precip south of the region as ridge axis continues to sharpen with
time through the day. As a result...have maintained a dry fcst with
highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Fcst becomes a bit more interesting come Sun/Sun Ngt as a high
building south from the western Canada nudges a central High Plains
low east with time. As this occurs...shortwave energy will translate
southeast from the northern Plains which will ultimately provide
increasing mid-level forcing for ascent by Sunday night. From this
vantage point...return moisture looks be be fairly limited thanks for
a limited low-level jet response...however enough lingering moisture
should be in place to help initiate redeveloping shwr/storm activity
Sunday night/early Monday. Lingering precip will exit stage right
Monday afternoon with high pressure set to arrive early Tuesday.
Dry and tranquil wx expected through much of early next week as high
pressure remains in firm control. Expect below normal temps to
continue through much of the extended as northeasterly flow is
maintained as high pressure remains parked over the western Great
Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Challenging fcst this morning as all three fcst points reside of far
western edge of low stratus deck. Latest satellite trends suggest low
stratus may creep up towards both MCI and MKC within the hr. As a
result...have maintained a tempo low-end MVFR mention at all three
locations. Beyond the 15/16z time frame...cigs should rise above VFR
thresholds with northeast winds between 5-10 kts prevailing through
the day. Later tonight...some potential for developing fog if
skies clear but overall confidence remains to low at this point to
include with current package.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
251 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THESE RATHER WELL
AND SO TRENDED POPS AND WEATHER TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE. EXPECT AREAL
COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WILL NEED FOR NIGHT SHIFT TO
CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR A TIME SATURDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR INCREASING WINDS. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER TO HOLD OFF AS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN
JUST SHY. NAM BUFKIT SOLUTIONS AND LATEST GFS GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE LAKE WIND CRITERIA BEING REACHED BUT AS A WHOLE GUIDANCE
IS COMING UP SHORT. DO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR NOW EXPECT NORTHERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE LAKE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS MORE
CLEARLY AS MESOSCALE MODELS CAN BETTER DEPICT THE NEAR TERM
EXPECTATIONS.
DRIER AND CONTINUED COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CWA. THE 08/12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
STARTING TO FORM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THESE
DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM ON THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. IF THE TROUGH CAN DIG DEEPLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS AND TRANSLATE FURTHER EAST A
LITTLE BIT SOONER...SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ACROSS PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN
GARFIELD. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW LARGELY STANDS. THE ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO TREND SKY WIND AND TEMPS TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A
STRONG AND LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE TUESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EXPECTING A DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA.
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES OUR CWA AND
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE FROM THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE THEIR WAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BUT COVERAGE AND
IMPACT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN
FACT...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC MODEL PERSISTS ON HOLDING ONTO A STALLED UPPER LOW
JUST ON SHORE FROM THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY QUICK
IN ADVANCING THIS LOW/TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...PULLING THE MODELS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.
EXTENDED FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW BEYOND
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN AT LEAST BE APPROACHED.
FOR NOW...CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPSIS: AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KOLF AND KGGW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
WINDS AND PUSH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EASTWARD TOWARD KSDY AND
KGDV ON SATURDAY.
CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CUMULUS BUILDUPS.
WINDS: SOUTHERLY AT 4-8KTS...GOING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING AT 15 TO 20KTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
157 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATE THE ONGOING MCS
WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND REACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SPC SUGGESTED. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA LOOKS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. THE RAP
MODEL MAINTAINS BETTER FORCING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NCNTL
ZONES WITH THE LEFT FRONT PORTION OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND MAX
POSITIONED THERE.
THE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SATURDAY SEES AN ELONGATE AND SHALLOW
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SOME LINGER SHOWERS PUSH EAST IN THE
MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME SUN WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 80S...THEN MODELS BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL HELP MOISTEN/SUSTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...HOWEVER WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT
DO TO RECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGER WAVES.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO RIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING...HOWEVER FORECAST FAVORS
A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. TEMPS SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD
TREND...WITH SOME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE KVTN TAF SITE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT IN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT.
AT 330 AM...WSR-88D WAS INDICATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE WITH THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE 750-800 MB LAYER.
THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH DAWN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...CALLING INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE
CURRENT EXPANSION OF OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINGS START TO DIE OUT. THE 06Z HRRR IS LARGELY DRY FROM
SUNRISE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING.
THE NMM AND ARW WRF MODELS DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AM NOT YET READY TO BITE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CHANGE MY MIND.
ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF
THIS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN THAT PROMOTES SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PULSE TYPE STORMS...FELT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND HAVE THUS REDUCED POPS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 0-6 KM OF 20-30 KTS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LASTING
CONVECTION AND THE STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH MAKING IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
COVER MUCH REAL ESTATE. HOWEVER...THOSE AREAS THAT CAN CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BENEFICIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION BUT YOUR NEIGHBOR A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD
MIGHT MISS OUT...ITS THAT KIND OF PATTERN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SEEM
LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SET UP FOR NOW. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL GO WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE SHAKY...BUT MOST MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT DECREASING CHANCES BY
LATE EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM WHEN IT
COMES TO OVERNIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND WILL GO FROM SCATTERED WORDING IN THE
EVENING TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SPEAK OF FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE
OVERVIEW OF POPS...THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES
TO CARRY VARIOUS 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF 40-50 POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CAME CLOSE TO INTRODUCING SOME 60
PERCENT LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
DIFFICULTY OF PRECIP FORECASTING IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THINGS GET INTO THE SHORTER TERM
12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME TO GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT ANYTHING IS
"LIKELY". BEYOND MONDAY DAYTIME...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING
TOWARD NO LONGER NEEDING POPS ACROSS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...DID
MAINTAIN A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME...BEFORE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS RE- ENTER THE PICTURE
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CONSIDERED REDUCING
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME POPS TO "SILENT" 10 PERCENT TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE JUST
INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM AS-
IS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE JUST IN CASE MODELS TREND BACK THE OTHER
WAY AGAIN.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS SEASONABLY-TYPICAL...ONE OF THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING NEAR/BELOW 30KT. OFFICIALLY...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDED A SLIVER OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL-BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. AT LEAST LIMITED PARTS OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES MAINLY DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST TWEAKS
TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR
LOWS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S EACH MORNING. FOR HIGH
TEMPS...THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS
WHERE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP
COULD EASILY RESULT IN 5+ DEGREE ERRORS...BUT IN GENERAL A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL REGIME FOR MID-AUGUST LOOKS TO PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY-
THURSDAY...WITH MOST NEB ZONES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT LOW-MID 80S AND
KS ZONES MORE SO MID-80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS LOOK
TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODESTLY-HUMID FEEL IN THE
AIR...BUT NOTHING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE BY AUGUST STANDARDS EITHER.
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO SOME DEGREE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AT LEAST
LIGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF SOMEWHAT
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF LIGHT BREEZES AND THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
SUPPORT OF AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF FOG FORMATION PER 00Z MET/MAV
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO TOSS IN ANOTHER
GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING OVER
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-36
HOURS TIME FRAMES...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
AWHILE NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN POP TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
24-48 HOUR RANGE. VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE SAME...PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE...MEANING THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND FAIRLY
SUBTLE ZONES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN
THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER. STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE
GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE 06Z NAM PORTRAYS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOOK
OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW RUNS. AS
A RESULT...SUSPECT THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAY...STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AS THE AREA GENERALLY LIES IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE SOME SPOTTY LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LASTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT 20 POP IN ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
STAY STORM-FREE...AND IN FACT KEPT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN
ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...BRING A SOLID ZONE OF 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A PASSING
MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD KEEP HALFWAY DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAKENING
STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A
POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR DAYTIME POPS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST 30-50 CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST IN EASTERN
ZONES...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 20S IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE
CANDIDATES FOR FUTURE REMOVAL OF SUNDAY NIGHT POPS.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE EXPANDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHUNTS THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY...WHILE LEAVING THE NIGHT
PRECIP-FREE.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DESPITE SOME HINTS IN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS
RUNS OF BRINGING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BACK INTO WESTERN
ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PROVIDE LIMITED
LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36 HOURS BRINGS VARIOUS 20-
30 PERCENT POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS
RANGE FOCUSED ON WED NIGHT-THURS AND MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. EVEN PER THE ECMWF...AND AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS MAY BE A FUTURE CANDIDATE FOR
REMOVAL OF SLIGHT POPS FROM MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH A VCTS OR PASSING SHOWER POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM AROUND
08/22Z-09/04Z. THEREAFTER...FOCUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN TO FOG
POTENTIAL...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR FOG LYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY 09/14Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATE THE ONGOING MCS
WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND REACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SPC SUGGESTED. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA LOOKS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. THE RAP
MODEL MAINTAINS BETTER FORCING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NCNTL
ZONES WITH THE LEFT FRONT PORTION OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND MAX
POSITIONED THERE.
THE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SATURDAY SEES AN ELONGATE AND SHALLOW
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SOME LINGER SHOWERS PUSH EAST IN THE
MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME SUN WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 80S...THEN MODELS BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL HELP MOISTEN/SUSTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...HOWEVER WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT
DO TO RECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGER WAVES.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO RIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING...HOWEVER FORECAST FAVORS
A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. TEMPS SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD
TREND...WITH SOME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH DISSIPATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS
MORNING SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
21Z-03Z. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS LIKELY 03Z-06Z ONWARD.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS WRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MVFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP 06Z ONWARD EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT
PERHAPS FARTHER WEST.
ONGOING MVFR/LOCAL IFR THIS AM IMPROVES TO VFR 15Z-17Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT IN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT.
AT 330 AM...WSR-88D WAS INDICATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE WITH THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE 750-800 MB LAYER.
THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH DAWN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...CALLING INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE
CURRENT EXPANSION OF OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINGS START TO DIE OUT. THE 06Z HRRR IS LARGELY DRY FROM
SUNRISE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING.
THE NMM AND ARW WRF MODELS DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AM NOT YET READY TO BITE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CHANGE MY MIND.
ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF
THIS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN THAT PROMOTES SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PULSE TYPE STORMS...FELT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND HAVE THUS REDUCED POPS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 0-6 KM OF 20-30 KTS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LASTING
CONVECTION AND THE STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH MAKING IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
COVER MUCH REAL ESTATE. HOWEVER...THOSE AREAS THAT CAN CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BENEFICIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION BUT YOUR NEIGHBOR A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD
MIGHT MISS OUT...ITS THAT KIND OF PATTERN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SEEM
LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SET UP FOR NOW. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL GO WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE SHAKY...BUT MOST MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT DECREASING CHANCES BY
LATE EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM WHEN IT
COMES TO OVERNIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND WILL GO FROM SCATTERED WORDING IN THE
EVENING TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SPEAK OF FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE
OVERVIEW OF POPS...THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES
TO CARRY VARIOUS 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF 40-50 POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CAME CLOSE TO INTRODUCING SOME 60
PERCENT LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
DIFFICULTY OF PRECIP FORECASTING IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THINGS GET INTO THE SHORTER TERM
12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME TO GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT ANYTHING IS
"LIKELY". BEYOND MONDAY DAYTIME...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING
TOWARD NO LONGER NEEDING POPS ACROSS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...DID
MAINTAIN A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME...BEFORE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS RE- ENTER THE PICTURE
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CONSIDERED REDUCING
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME POPS TO "SILENT" 10 PERCENT TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE JUST
INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM AS-
IS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE JUST IN CASE MODELS TREND BACK THE OTHER
WAY AGAIN.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS SEASONABLY-TYPICAL...ONE OF THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING NEAR/BELOW 30KT. OFFICIALLY...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDED A SLIVER OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL-BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. AT LEAST LIMITED PARTS OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES MAINLY DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST TWEAKS
TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR
LOWS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S EACH MORNING. FOR HIGH
TEMPS...THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS
WHERE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP
COULD EASILY RESULT IN 5+ DEGREE ERRORS...BUT IN GENERAL A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL REGIME FOR MID-AUGUST LOOKS TO PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY-
THURSDAY...WITH MOST NEB ZONES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT LOW-MID 80S AND
KS ZONES MORE SO MID-80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS LOOK
TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODESTLY-HUMID FEEL IN THE
AIR...BUT NOTHING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE BY AUGUST STANDARDS EITHER.
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO SOME DEGREE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AT LEAST
LIGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF SOMEWHAT
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF LIGHT BREEZES AND THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
SUPPORT OF AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF FOG FORMATION PER 00Z MET/MAV
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO TOSS IN ANOTHER
GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING OVER
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-36
HOURS TIME FRAMES...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
AWHILE NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN POP TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
24-48 HOUR RANGE. VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE SAME...PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE...MEANING THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND FAIRLY
SUBTLE ZONES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN
THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER. STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE
GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD QPF FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE 06Z NAM PORTRAYS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOOK
OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW RUNS. AS
A RESULT...SUSPECT THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAY...STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AS THE AREA GENERALLY LIES IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE SOME SPOTTY LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LASTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT 20 POP IN ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
STAY STORM-FREE...AND IN FACT KEPT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN
ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...BRING A SOLID ZONE OF 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A PASSING
MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD KEEP HALFWAY DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAKENING
STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A
POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR DAYTIME POPS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST 30-50 CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST IN EASTERN
ZONES...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 20S IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE
CANDIDATES FOR FUTURE REMOVAL OF SUNDAY NIGHT POPS.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE EXPANDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHUNTS THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY...WHILE LEAVING THE NIGHT
PRECIP-FREE.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DESPITE SOME HINTS IN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS
RUNS OF BRINGING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BACK INTO WESTERN
ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PROVIDE LIMITED
LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36 HOURS BRINGS VARIOUS 20-
30 PERCENT POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS
RANGE FOCUSED ON WED NIGHT-THURS AND MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. EVEN PER THE ECMWF...AND AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS MAY BE A FUTURE CANDIDATE FOR
REMOVAL OF SLIGHT POPS FROM MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE BIGGEST AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER
AROUND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PREFERRED
TIME AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AN EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF PRIMARILY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NAIL DOWN THE TIMING WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES. IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN UNTIL AROUND 9 AM WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT FAR
FROM KGRI. THUS FAR THIS FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF KGRI...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT IN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT.
AT 330 AM...WSR-88D WAS INDICATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE WITH THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE 750-800 MB LAYER.
THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH DAWN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...CALLING INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE
CURRENT EXPANSION OF OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINGS START TO DIE OUT. THE 06Z HRRR IS LARGELY DRY FROM
SUNRISE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING.
THE NMM AND ARW WRF MODELS DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AM NOT YET READY TO BITE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CHANGE MY MIND.
ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF
THIS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN THAT PROMOTES SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PULSE TYPE STORMS...FELT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND HAVE THUS REDUCED POPS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 0-6 KM OF 20-30 KTS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LASTING
CONVECTION AND THE STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH MAKING IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
COVER MUCH REAL ESTATE. HOWEVER...THOSE AREAS THAT CAN CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BENEFICIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION BUT YOUR NEIGHBOR A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD
MIGHT MISS OUT...ITS THAT KIND OF PATTERN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SEEM
LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SET UP FOR NOW. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL GO WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE SHAKY...BUT MOST MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT DECREASING CHANCES BY
LATE EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM WHEN IT
COMES TO OVERNIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND WILL GO FROM SCATTERED WORDING IN THE
EVENING TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SPEAK OF FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE
OVERVIEW OF POPS...THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES
TO CARRY VARIOUS 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF 40-50 POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CAME CLOSE TO INTRODUCING SOME 60
PERCENT LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
DIFFICULTY OF PRECIP FORECASTING IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THINGS GET INTO THE SHORTER TERM
12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME TO GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT ANYTHING IS
"LIKELY". BEYOND MONDAY DAYTIME...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING
TOWARD NO LONGER NEEDING POPS ACROSS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...DID
MAINTAIN A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME...BEFORE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS RE- ENTER THE PICTURE
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CONSIDERED REDUCING
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME POPS TO "SILENT" 10 PERCENT TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE JUST
INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM AS-
IS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE JUST IN CASE MODELS TREND BACK THE OTHER
WAY AGAIN.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS SEASONABLY-TYPICAL...ONE OF THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING NEAR/BELOW 30KT. OFFICIALLY...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDED A SLIVER OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL-BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. AT LEAST LIMITED PARTS OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES MAINLY DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST TWEAKS
TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR
LOWS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S EACH MORNING. FOR HIGH
TEMPS...THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS
WHERE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP
COULD EASILY RESULT IN 5+ DEGREE ERRORS...BUT IN GENERAL A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL REGIME FOR MID-AUGUST LOOKS TO PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY-
THURSDAY...WITH MOST NEB ZONES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT LOW-MID 80S AND
KS ZONES MORE SO MID-80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS LOOK
TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODESTLY-HUMID FEEL IN THE
AIR...BUT NOTHING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE BY AUGUST STANDARDS EITHER.
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO SOME DEGREE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AT LEAST
LIGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF SOMEWHAT
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF LIGHT BREEZES AND THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
SUPPORT OF AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF FOG FORMATION PER 00Z MET/MAV
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO TOSS IN ANOTHER
GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING OVER
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-36
HOURS TIME FRAMES...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
AWHILE NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN POP TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
24-48 HOUR RANGE. VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE SAME...PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE...MEANING THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND FAIRLY
SUBTLE ZONES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN
THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER. STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE
GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD QPF FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE 06Z NAM PORTRAYS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOOK
OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW RUNS. AS
A RESULT...SUSPECT THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAY...STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AS THE AREA GENERALLY LIES IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE SOME SPOTTY LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LASTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT 20 POP IN ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
STAY STORM-FREE...AND IN FACT KEPT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN
ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...BRING A SOLID ZONE OF 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A PASSING
MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD KEEP HALFWAY DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAKENING
STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A
POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR DAYTIME POPS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST 30-50 CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST IN EASTERN
ZONES...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 20S IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE
CANDIDATES FOR FUTURE REMOVAL OF SUNDAY NIGHT POPS.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE EXPANDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHUNTS THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY...WHILE LEAVING THE NIGHT
PRECIP-FREE.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DESPITE SOME HINTS IN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS
RUNS OF BRINGING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BACK INTO WESTERN
ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PROVIDE LIMITED
LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36 HOURS BRINGS VARIOUS 20-
30 PERCENT POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS
RANGE FOCUSED ON WED NIGHT-THURS AND MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. EVEN PER THE ECMWF...AND AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS MAY BE A FUTURE CANDIDATE FOR
REMOVAL OF SLIGHT POPS FROM MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THERE ARE NUMEROUS AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PREFERRED TIME AND THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE RANGING FROM EAST NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERLY WHILE PREDOMINATELY BEING OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATE THE ONGOING MCS
WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND REACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SPC SUGGESTED. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA LOOKS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. THE RAP
MODEL MAINTAINS BETTER FORCING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NCNTL
ZONES WITH THE LEFT FRONT PORTION OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND MAX
POSITIONED THERE.
THE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SATURDAY SEES AN ELONGATE AND SHALLOW
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SOME LINGER SHOWERS PUSH EAST IN THE
MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME SUN WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 80S...THEN MODELS BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL HELP MOISTEN/SUSTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...HOWEVER WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT
DO TO RECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGER WAVES.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO RIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING...HOWEVER FORECAST FAVORS
A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. TEMPS SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD
TREND...WITH SOME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS THE KLBF OR KVTN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NEAR
TERM MESOSCALE MODEL SOLNS. WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...DECIDED
TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE VICINITY OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL ONLY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SOLN...AS WELL
AS THE GFS SOLNS...ARE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HANDLED
WITH A PROB 30 GROUP FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL. BETTER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO WILL HANDLE TSRAS FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIMING BEST PCPN
CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING. A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER BUT MOVING OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED AROUND
500 MB WAS OVER NRN UT. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE
NOTED FROM UT INTO WY AND CO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS NOTED OVER WRN IA. KOAX SOUNDING FROM
12Z SHOWED ABOUT 1.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH DID NOT DO A PERFECT JOB
LAST EVENING...BUT WAS FAIRLY GOOD...SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD TEND TO BUILD IN
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER DRYING A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG...SO ADDED THAT. THE SPOTTY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY FROM 63 TO 66. SOME
LIGHT PCPN COULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER FRIDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND
SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN
TO MAINLY THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
THEN WENT MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT
TURNS WET TOWARD DAY 7 WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND LIFTED INDICES DROP. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
80S AND LOWS 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS TIMING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. FLGT CAT
TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWING INCREASING IFR
COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB...AND EXPECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT STILL EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 13Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THOUGH WITH VFR CIGS
FL050 AGL GENERALLY PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
CU FIELD FORMING AS TEMPS NEAR 80. MAIN CAPE AS MENTIONED EARLIER
FROM WRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ND AND STILL SUNNY THIS AREA BUT
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST THERE SO DO EXPECT TCU TO START FORMING
SOON AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP FAR NW ND INTO SASK-WRN MB. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM PSBL IN CU FIELD IN FCST AREA BUT ATTM
TOO LOW TO MENTION. ACTIVITY IN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH BUT SO
FAR VERY ISOLATED AND THICKER CLOUD COVER THERE SO INSTABILITY
LOWER. OVERALL THOUGH FOR COORDINATION DID MAINTAIN A LOW POP IN
FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. REMOVED IN FAR NORTH AS MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO RE-ADJUST FARTHER NORTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED SKY COVER A BIT THRU SATURDAY TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OTHERWISE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES INSTABILY REMAINS IN
ACHORED IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO WRN
ND...WITH SECOND CORE IN FAR SOUTHERN SD/NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FAR NORTH AS ANY CONVECTION IN MANITOBA MAY MAKE A RUN AT
NRN VALLEY. KEPT FAR FAR SRN VALLEY WITH LOW POPS MID AFTN-EVE AS
WELL THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATER IN THIS 84
HOUR PERIOD. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUN. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHT FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SD FRI NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO WATER VAPOR LOO
INDICATED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OVER SOUTHWEST
MAN. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE NORTH TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR SAT AND SUN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
NORTH FOR TODAY. TWEAKED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MON THROUGH THU...EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/WEAK FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON THU. MOST OF THE OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR NEXT
THU...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED SKY COVER A BIT THRU SATURDAY TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OTHERWISE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES INSTABILY REMAINS IN
ACHORED IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO WRN
ND...WITH SECOND CORE IN FAR SOUTHERN SD/NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FAR NORTH AS ANY CONVECTION IN MANITOBA MAY MAKE A RUN AT
NRN VALLEY. KEPT FAR FAR SRN VALLEY WITH LOW POPS MID AFTN-EVE AS
WELL THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATER IN THIS 84
HOUR PERIOD. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUN. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHT FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SD FRI NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO WATER VAPOR LOO
INDICATED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OVER SOUTHWEST
MAN. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE NORTH TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR SAT AND SUN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
NORTH FOR TODAY. TWEAKED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MON THROUGH THU...EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/WEAK FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON THU. MOST OF THE OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR NEXT
THU...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. PATCHY CIGS AROUND 4 TO 9
THOUSAND FT WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVER SD EXPECTED
TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD LIFT BY 8 OR 9 AM. MORE DENSE FOG
WAS AROUND BJI BUT SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY 8 OR 9AM. FOG LOOP
INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND SHOULD
SPREAD EAST TODAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. REMAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO/ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS ACTIVITY AS LOCAL IN-HOUSE
MODEL AND HRRR TRY TO PUSH SOME OF THIS INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP
PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 93 72 89 / 50 30 30 10
FSM 74 94 74 92 / 50 40 40 10
MLC 74 96 73 92 / 40 20 30 10
BVO 70 92 70 89 / 50 40 30 10
FYV 69 89 68 87 / 50 40 40 10
BYV 68 89 69 86 / 50 40 40 20
MKO 72 93 72 89 / 50 30 40 10
MIO 70 91 70 88 / 50 40 40 10
F10 73 94 72 90 / 40 30 30 10
HHW 74 97 74 95 / 60 10 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ON NORTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPANDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND
NORTHWEST MN. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE AREAS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY SLIPS
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE MIGHT
BE SOME RESIDUAL SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE -NON MEASURABLE - LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LATE FORM TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 TO 65.
WITH COOL AND MOIST MID LEVELS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY...DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH
A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AGAIN...WITH SOME DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SUPPORT COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WEAK H5 FLOW EARLY IN THE PD WONT HELP FOCUS ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. ON FRI NIGHT...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALL WEST OF THE JAMES...WILL PROVIDE SOME IMPETUS FOR SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE ENTIRE
CWA.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE AT H5 AND H7 BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE CWA. POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE CAT AS A COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REALLY JUST WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA.
FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY OVERALL PATTERN TURNS TO RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST. THIS LOW WILL EJECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWVS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NW FLOW OVER THE
CWA BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF TSRA EVERY OTHER DAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER WAVE/TROF APPROACHES ON WED/THURS SO HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE THEN.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY.
ANTICIPATING FSD/SUX TO REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. WILL WATCH VISIBILITIES BOUNCE AROUND TROUGH DAYBREAK. HURON
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOWER STRATUS.
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATCH OUT FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE
ACROSS SUX/FSD...WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY WORDING BUT LATER TAFS MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE A MORE PREVAILING WORDING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SETTING
OFF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PARIS TN
TO NEAR PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHING EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE BROKEN LINE. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY COME FROM WHATEVER DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD...BUT MAY NEED AN
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WHERE THE CONVECTION OCCURS BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECASTED HIGHS ALONE AS TEMPERATURES COULD
QUICKLY REBOUND ONCE CONVECTION PUSHES EAST.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
WHAT AN UNUSUAL SUMMER WEATHERWISE! AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WERE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE REGION IN WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
00Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF ABOUT
1.9 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED EARLIER TONIGHT FROM THE
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY...BUT AT EARLY MORNING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHEAST AR INTO EXTREME WEST TN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
ABOVE 2 INCHES TODAY. A WET MICROBURST AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
COOLING. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
BY SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO EASTERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL
KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER...WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED DURING PART OF THIS TIME IN LATER FORECASTS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE...AND MENTIONED THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
IT LOOKS LIKE CLEARING SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
CONTINUING THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER. LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL
OCCUR FOR A FEW DAYS.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTER OF -TSRA IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TN THIS
MORNING AND MAY TEMPORARILY AFFECT MKL. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY
08/18Z...NUMEROUS -TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE
PLACED A TEMPO FOR THE PERIOD THAT WARRANTS THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY -TSRA
THAT PERSISTS. OUTSIDE OF -TSRAS AND -SHRAS...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOG AND
ADDITIONAL -SHRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09/01Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION TO PLACE IN TAF JUST YET. FUTURE
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AC3
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH CONTINUED COOLING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WE STILL EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WE/LL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AT KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF GIVEN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR IN THE 11-14Z
TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
CLOUDS BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ANOTHER CU
FIELD WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CU IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TOMORROW ALSO SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PW VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104 ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ONLY MIX OUT TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOMORROW IN THE 103 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THIS WEEKEND....A WEAK UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO THEN MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE FLOW
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL ALSO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AS WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS MOSTLY THE
SAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A DIFFERENT PATTERN
SHAPING UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE RETURN OF A RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A TROUGH
TO DROP INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RE-CENTER AND AMPLIFY ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE CANADIAN. THERE ARE QUESTIONS OF
HOW FAR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND ALSO THE BEST TIMING
FOR RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FORECASTING 850 TEMPS TO BE THE
HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR...RANGING FROM 22 TO 25 C. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SEE THE CENTURY
MARK. WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT IN NORTH
TEXAS.
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT
TYPE OF IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 101 75 99 75 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 100 72 100 72 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 72 100 72 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 73 99 73 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 77 / 0 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 99 74 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 72 98 72 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 98 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THEN ONE PIECE OF THIS LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PIECE CROSSING
INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS MOVES EAST TODAY. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS BRING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 00Z/8PM. BY THEN THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 850 MB WARM
FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO NORFOLK. GOOD LIFT ALSO COMES
IN BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND Q-V FORCING
BY 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EAST IN TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A STRONG
IN-SITU WEDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
LATE TONIGHT. PLUS SOUTHEAST SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASE THE UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO A SECOND AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THIS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. ADDED
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN THREAT COMES FROM THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT FORECAST AND A DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CAD EVENT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE
LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CREATE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.
THE RAINFALL DELIVERED BY THE FIRST WAVE WILL HELP DETERMINE ANY
FLOOD THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF TODAY
CONVECTION SHOULD HELP PIN POINT ANY POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR ANY
PROBLEMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AND MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN HWO. IN GENERAL...ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOAKING RAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE. EVEN IF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...DRY SOILS AND LOW
CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IF RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY HIGH DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD RESULT.
AN INSITU WEDGE WILL GET OVERRUN BY WARM MOIST AIR SATURDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL DAY SATURDAY
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 70S EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS AND PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WITH WEDGE WILL HOLD COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM MID 60S IN THE WEDGE TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S IN THE FAR WEST. INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST AND TAPER OFF
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...DRIFTING TOWARD LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY LOW AROUND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THE BULK OF THE MODERATE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COOL WEDGE OF AIR TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT THE WEDGE IN PLACE
WILL ERODE SIGNIFICANTLY...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY CLOSER
TO SUNDAY. IN GENERAL..HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UNDER CUT HPCGUIDE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
MENTION OF SCATTERED STORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MOIST NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.PRECIPITATION WAS
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA TO EASTERN TENNESSEE AT 12Z/8AM AND WAS
MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH KBLF AND
KLWB BEFORE 15Z/11AM. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COVER THE AREA
BY 00Z/8PM TONIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER
CLOSE BY ARE KBLF AND KLWB.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR THEN IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR CEILINGS WILL
DROP BY 12Z/8AM. GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS GIVEN A WEDGE IS DEVELOPING AND WITH GOOD LIFT AND
OVERRUNNING GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN...LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...RAIN COOLED AIR...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE...
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS.
MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE COOL WEDGE...BUT THINK THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA WILL BE VERY LOW CIGS/VSBYS.
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS:
AUGUST 9TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 69 1970 1912
LYH 70 1970 1893
DAN 73 1989 1948
BCB 66 1995 1952
BLF 66 1970 1959
LWB 68 1995 1973
AUGUST 10TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 66 1970 1912
LYH 68 1970 1893
DAN 72 1970 1948
BCB 64 1970 1952
BLF 59 1970 1959
LWB 73 1996 1973
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THEN ONE PIECE OF THIS LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PIECE CROSSING
INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS MOVES EAST TODAY. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS BRING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 00Z/8PM. BY THEN THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 850 MB WARM
FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO NORFOLK. GOOD LIFT ALSO COMES
IN BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND Q-V FORCING
BY 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EAST IN TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A STRONG
IN-SITU WEDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
LATE TONIGHT. PLUS SOUTHEAST SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASE THE UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO A SECOND AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THIS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. ADDED
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN THREAT COMES FROM THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT FORECAST AND A DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CAD EVENT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE
LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CREATE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.
THE RAINFALL DELIVERED BY THE FIRST WAVE WILL HELP DETERMINE ANY
FLOOD THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF TODAY
CONVECTION SHOULD HELP PIN POINT ANY POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR ANY
PROBLEMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AND MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN HWO. IN GENERAL...ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOAKING RAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE. EVEN IF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...DRY SOILS AND LOW
CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IF RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY HIGH DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD RESULT.
AN INSITU WEDGE WILL GET OVERRUN BY WARM MOIST AIR SATURDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL DAY SATURDAY
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 70S EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS AND PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WITH WEDGE WILL HOLD COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM MID 60S IN THE WEDGE TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S IN THE FAR WEST. INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST AND TAPER OFF
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...DRIFTING TOWARD LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY LOW AROUND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THE BULK OF THE MODERATE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COOL WEDGE OF AIR TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT THE WEDGE IN PLACE
WILL ERODE SIGNIFICANTLY...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY CLOSER
TO SUNDAY. IN GENERAL..HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UNDER CUT HPCGUIDE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
MENTION OF SCATTERED STORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MOIST NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLOUDS ALREADY FILLING IN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
12Z/8AM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT TO WHEN CEILINGS WILL DROP AT KLWB
AND KBLF.
PRECIPITATION WAS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AT 06Z/2AM AND
WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH KBLF AND
KLWB...MAINLY AFTER 15Z/11AM. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COVER
THE AREA BY 00Z/8PM TONIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON RAIN AT KLYH AND
KDAN UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT ALL AIRPORTS TO IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING. MAY
SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING EARLY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MOST
LIKELY AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER CLOSE BY ARE KBLF AND KLWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...RAIN COOLED AIR...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE...
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS.
MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE COOL WEDGE...BUT THINK THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA WILL BE VERY LOW CIGS/VSBYS.
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS:
AUGUST 9TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 69 1970 1912
LYH 70 1970 1893
DAN 73 1989 1948
BCB 66 1995 1952
BLF 66 1970 1959
LWB 68 1995 1973
AUGUST 10TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 66 1970 1912
LYH 68 1970 1893
DAN 72 1970 1948
BCB 64 1970 1952
BLF 59 1970 1959
LWB 73 1996 1973
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1024 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU POPPED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING CIRRUS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS SPINNING OVER THE DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION FROM
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER IOWA AND
MINNESOTA SINCE EAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DRY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY SO THINKING WE SHOULD JUST SEE AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE. BUT THIS WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO THINKING LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
SUNDAY...A LITTLE DEEPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT BACKING
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A CLOUDIER AND MORE HUMID
DAY THAN TODAY. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL OFFSET WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IN CONCERT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS JET ENERGY EVENTUALLY
CARVES OUT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK...LEAVING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MOST LIKELY AFTER 09Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z AND THEN EASTERN SECTION AFTER 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AS LFQ OF
UPPER JET HELPS TO ORGANIZE AND FOCUS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHERE OVER INDIANA OR LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIFT NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON AREA BY 18Z TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMIMG AND LOCATION OF THIS
EVOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF
DEPICTION OF THIS EVOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z MONDAY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TUESDAY TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAIN. AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND PERHAPS SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...CAA AND PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER. WOULD THINK TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL GENERATE MUCH
IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...THUS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS
BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WAS ON SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN INTO PARTS
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY BEEN WORKING EAST
TODAY...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE
HAS KEPT THE LOW LEVELS PLENTY DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. MID
AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND CLOUD
COVER VARIED FROM MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP FROM MSP TO DODGE
CENTER...LIFTING NORTH. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN DODGE
COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PLAN ON DRY
CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL FIZZLE OUT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE 50S IN THE
COOLER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOCATIONS...TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN / NORTHEAST IA UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES...AND SENDS A PIECE OF ENERGY DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW THE
MOISTURE AXIS OF 65F DEWPOINTS TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL. MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...AND IS MOSTLY UNCAPPED. EXPECTING POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED ALONG/WEST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL
SLOWLY WORK EAST TOWARD ROCHESTER AND CHARLES CITY AREAS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AS 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ON
THE ORDER OF 10 KTS.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARRIVES MONDAY...THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK/MODERATE NOTED BY SOME 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION AND WEAK
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE ONLY REAL POSITIVE IS THAT PWATS
WILL BE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
MONDAY MORNING AND WITH CONVECTION AROUND...FORECAST HIGHS WILL
BE TRICKY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DOWN...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT BY
LOWERING HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. THE
GREATER CLOUD COVER ALSO LIMITS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AROUND...AND GIVEN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT
ALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. END RESULT WAS A
TIGHTENING OF THE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE GREATER FORCING/LIFT IS EXPECTED.
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...ENDING PRECIPITATION WEST
TO EAST. COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE FRONT HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS QUIET WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
7-10 C WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS.
09.12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKING DOWN HELPING TO
SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY LATER IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ALL OF THE MODELS...AS THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER SOLUTION. ADJUSTED MODEL CONSENSUS TO KEEP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MS RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STUCK OVER MICHIGAN WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO NOT CHANGE
MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THE FORECAST MAINTAINS MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS. THERE REMAINS TWO CONCERNS...THOUGH. THE FIRST IS
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS AT LSE IN THE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND AT THE GROUND IS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...10 TO
20 KT WINDS ARE MODELED JUST ABOVE THE GROUND UNTIL 12Z...COMBINED
WITH THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND SCATTERED ALTOSTRATUS AROUND
YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY...THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE JUST MARGINAL. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE BCFG AND SCT LIFR DECK FOR NOW. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS SUNDAY EVENING WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM TO MOVE INTO RST FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE AND THE
EASTERLY DRY FLOW...HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU POPPED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING CIRRUS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS SPINNING OVER THE DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION FROM
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER IOWA AND
MINNESOTA SINCE EAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DRY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY SO THINKING WE SHOULD JUST SEE AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE. BUT THIS WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO THINKING LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
SUNDAY...A LITTLE DEEPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT BACKING
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A CLOUDIER AND MORE HUMID
DAY THAN TODAY. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL OFFSET WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IN CONCERT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS JET ENERGY EVENTUALLY
CARVES OUT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK...LEAVING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MOST LIKELY AFTER 09Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z AND THEN EASTERN SECTION AFTER 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AS LFQ OF
UPPER JET HELPS TO ORGANIZE AND FOCUS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHERE OVER INDIANA OR LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIFT NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON AREA BY 18Z TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMIMG AND LOCATION OF THIS
EVOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF
DEPICTION OF THIS EVOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z MONDAY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TUESDAY TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAIN. AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND PERHAPS SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...CAA AND PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER. WOULD THINK TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL GENERATE MUCH
IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...THUS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS
BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING GROUND FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER N-C WISCONSIN...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A BIT MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE TRAVERSING
THROUGH IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS WISCONSIN.
A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S...REACHING THE 60S OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND COOLER SPOTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AND
IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH DEWPOINT RECOVERY TAKES PLACE...AND IF THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE STAY DOWN.
FOR SATURDAY...PLAN ON MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AT THE SURFACE...THE GREATER MOISTURE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINN/IOWA SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S...KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS
COMFORTABLE. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM LOW/MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE MORE SUN/MIXING IS EXPECTED...TO MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST UNDER MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED TO THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. PRECIPITABLE
WATER OFF THE 08.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN A WEAK CAP ENVIRONMENT...POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES WEST OF A ROCHESTER TO CHARLES CITY LINE FOR
SUNDAY.
08.12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS CYCLES AGREEMENT OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST...GENERATING A MODEST AMOUNT OF
500-300 MB PV ADVECTION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED BUT WITH DEWPOINTS PEGGED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S...MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...AND AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY LACKING...UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND LESS THAN 15 KTS SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TRENDING
HIGHER...INCREASED POPS TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
DIFFERENCES CREEP UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE AREA DRY WITH GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE BUT THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND
REAL PATTERN SIGNALS...SLIGHT CHANCES IN A MODEL CONSENSUS LOOK
GOOD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
BLOCKED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES UNDER THE REX BLOCK WEAK DEFORMATION AREA
WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST FEEDING
INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL KEEP BULK OF CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST.
EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH WEAK
FLOW COULD SEE PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AT THE KLSE AIRFIELD...BUT
DID OPT TO INCLUDE BCFG. LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND
EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. FAIR WEATHER CU HAS POPPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE LOCATION OF
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD CONDITIONS.
WENT WITH THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH LAST NIGHTS TEMPS
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.
SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT INTO
MINNESOTA. SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ALONG TYPICAL DIURNAL CU FORMATION AROUND MIDDAY. BUT
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSHING
THE MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH
TOMORROW SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN FALL BACK TO PERHAPS 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUESDAY...AS PRONOUNCED RIDGING DEV LOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY WHATS LEFT OF THIS DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THEN AS SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
CORE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET IN CONCERT WITH SOME LATE DAY
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 18Z MONDAY
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PRECIPITATION COULD HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE...PERHAPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RATHER
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STILL BE UNDER PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF
WEAK IMPULSES DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ADD ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE GREAT FLYING WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
520 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
STORMS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA WITH THE SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA. AS A RESULT...SFC WINDS ARE NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA WITH A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. BEST SHOT AT STRONGER
STORMS THRU THE AFTN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE VALLEY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
DRIER (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S)...LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-50F RANGE. THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES OF 1250-1500 OVER DAWES AND SIOUX
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT
WILL BE THE LACK OF SHEAR (BULK SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25 KTS). KEPT
SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST THROUGH THE AFTN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STRONGER
STORMS OVER THIS AREA. STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF THEREAFTER.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SFC PRESSURES RISING OVER THE CWA. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY BY
SUN AFTN WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE. THE MAIN MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS TO SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY AND QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
AFTN. APPEARS MORE AND MORE THAT NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SEE MUCH OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY...SO LOWERED POPS IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY MON WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF WY. WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO GET MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST WY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...AND EASTERN GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A UPPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEEK/S END. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A
POSITIVE OPEN TROUGH WITH ITS MERIDIONAL AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TUESDAY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND EASTERN CO. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WY/CO
WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
THURSDAY AS FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AND SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NOT AS PREVALENT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT
THE CWA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. SATURDAY WILL TREND DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHERE MVFR VSBYS LIKELY.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS OVER SE WY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD TSTMS OVER THE THE NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
359 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
...ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE THOUGH TONIGHT...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA INTO MONDAY...THEN BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING THE
MIDDLE THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN CROSS THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A PESKY STNRY FNT WAS PSND ACROSS THE SRN PEE DEE AND SRN MIDLANDS
ERLY THIS MRNG PER 10/06Z SFC ANALYSIS...ESSENTIALLY BISECTING
PARTS OF BERKELEY AND UPR CHARLESTON COUNTIES. THE FNT CONTS TO BE
A FOCUS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THIS MRNG...MAINLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
UPSTATE WHERE APRCHG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENHANCING UVV/S IN THAT
AREA. 10/00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORT ANOTHER VRY BUSY DAY FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH VRY HIGH PWATS RUNNING 120 PCNT OF NORMAL INTERACTING
WITH THE SAID FNT AND WAVES OF UPSTREAM VORTICITY TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTMS. RAP WND PROFILES FAVOR BACK-
BUILDING/CONVECTIVE TRAINING BEHAVIOR AGAIN TDA WITH VRY LGT
925-700 HPA WND FIELDS IN PLACE COINCIDENT WITH A SYNOPTIC
ENVIRON SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RNFL. THE RISK FOR BACK-BUILDING WL
BE ENHANCED ALONG THE FNT ITSELF AS IT DRAFTS S AS WELL AS
ALONG ANY MESOSCALE BNDRY COLLISIONS SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. DATA ALSO SUGGEST A WK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD
FORM ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BNDRY LTR THIS MRNG...WHICH WL FURTHER
INCR LOW-LVL CONVG ACROSS THE RGN. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WL SUPPORT
AN INCRD RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SRN SC AND SE GA AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED THROUGH LTE TNGT FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA PER WFO/NCEP COORDINATION. SIMILAR TO YDA...AN ISOLD
STG/SVR TSTM CAN TO BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH CONDS FAVORING
MARGINALLY SVR WET MICROBURSTS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND QPF
AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST NSSL 4KM-WRF AND THE
LATEST HIGH RES ARW TO CONSTRUCT POPS/TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
THIS AFTN AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST OVR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PLAN TO RAISE POPS TO 70-100 PCNT FOR ALL ZONES TDA WITH
THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH THE AFTN PER
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSOLATION THIS MRNG
TO BOOST TEMPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPR 80S N TO LWR 90S S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTMS WL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNSET WITH HIGH
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD MOVE S
OUT OF SRN SC INTO COASTAL SE GA. THIS IS CONCERNING AS THIS COULD
IMPACT THE SAV METRO AREA DURING ALREADY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...THUS ENHANCING THE RISK FOR SIG FLASH FLOODING. ADJUSTED
GRIDDED POPS TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S WITH HIGHER
POPS SHIFTING BACK N OVRNGT BACK NEAR THE VCNTY OF THE STNRY FNT...
WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN SC. IT WL CONT BE QUITE MUGGY
WITH LOWS IN THE THE MID-UPR 70S.
MONDAY...THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...WHILE A FAIRLY WEAK TROUGH
PATTERN PREVAILS ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY FAR TO THE NORTH...DIVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...WILL EXTEND THE
UPPER TROUGH DOWN TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MEANDERING FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO THE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING PATTERN...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COASTLINE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
OVERNIGHT. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WAVE
WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION...WILL
MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 2.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH STORM MOTIONS
LESS THAN 10 KT...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE. THICK CLOUD COVER AND DECENT RAIN COVERAGE WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST A DEGREE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RANGING FROM AROUND 89 DEGREES NORTH TO 92 SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN
THE EAST COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY PICKING UP THE
SURFACE LOW AND DRIVING IT NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 50
PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRAILING/WEAK FRONT. STORM MOTIONS ARE NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES. THUS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BEST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
NEARBY WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK...WITH A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE COAST IN ITS WAKE. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING
A REMNANT BAND OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FEATURES...YET
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PERIODS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY/MID
AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...EXPECT IT TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DRIER AIR TO SUPPORT A MORE SEASONAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SCENARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE A BIT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATCHING FOR PSBL STRATUS BUILD DOWN AT KSAV...BUT THOUGHTS ARE
THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED. SOME SHALLOW MVFR FOG
PSBL HWVR. NO CONCERNS AT KCHS THROUGH SUNRISE. IT WL BE ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE RGN. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV HAVE
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM IMPACTS THIS AFTN. WL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR TSRA AT KCHS BY 18Z AND 20Z AT KSAV WITH TEMPO
CONDITIONS MARGINAL IFR FOR MAINLY HVY RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT TSTMS WL PUSH INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS BY SUNSET...BUT COULD
LINGER AT KSAV A BIT LONGER IF THE LATEST NSSL WRF VERIFIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LGT WND FIELDS WL PERSIST AS A STNRY FNT CONTS
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SC WTRS. SLGTLY HIGHER WNDS WL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE GA WTRS...BUT BOTH WNDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN WELL BLO ANY
ADV THRESHOLDS. A FEW STG TSTMS WL BE PSBL THROUGH TNGT WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS. THIS WL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OTLK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A MEANDERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER OR
NEAR THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...AND SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE OFFSHORE
FROM LAND AREAS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 OR 40 KT...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AT TIMES. MARINERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEATHER
WATCH...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF
CHANNELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM FRONT
AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...YET
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PERIODICALLY OCCUR...ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS WITH LESS FREQUENCY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV...SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDS FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RNFL THROUGH TNGT.
MANY AREAS...ESP ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...SAW
UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES WITH
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING NOTED IN DWTN CHARLESTON PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING WAS
ALSO OBSERVED IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS AS WELL.
WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HVY RAINS...1-HR AND
3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST 24 HRS. WITH THE ENVIRON SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT
RNFL...THESE VALUES COULD BE EASILY SURPASSED WHERE THE HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CONGLOMERATES FORM. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD
FALL PRIOR TO AND/OR DURING HIGH TIDE...WHERE TIDE LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING VRY HIGH DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. THIS WL
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS. XPCT GENERAL RNFL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH TNGT WITH
ISOLD AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 6-8 INCHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TNGT. CURRENT
AND FCST TIDAL DEPARTURES SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WL BREACH MODERATE
FLOOD THRESHOLDS ALONG THE LWR SC COAST AND SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE UPR GA COAST. XPCT TIDES OF 7.4-7.7 FT
MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH 9.2 TO 9.5 FT MLLW AT FT
PULASKI. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...HVY RAINS COULD FALL AROUND/NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WL ONLY EXACERBATE ENHANCE THE FLOOD
IMPACT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADV WL BE ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...
INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...FROM 7PM-MIDNIGHT.
THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDE WILL OCCUR TDA AND THESE ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ELEVATED TIDES INTO EARLY
THIS WEEK. SINCE ONLY SMALL DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING...THIS WILL LIKELY BOOST TIDE LEVELS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
SHOULD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF THE ELEVATED HIGH
TIDES...RUNOFF WILL BE INHIBITED AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
COULD OCCUR WITHIN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC WSR-88D /KCLX/ REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL FAILURE. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE HAS THE RADAR
RETURNING TO SERVICE BETWEEN AUGUST 21 AND 25.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-
114>119-137>141.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
112 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AIR MASS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH PWAT AROUND 2.1 INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA IN DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. BOTH RUC AND
GFS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. WILL INDICATE CATEGORICAL INTO THE THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE MIDLANDS AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE CSRA.
POPS DECREASING TOWARDS DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY DRIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN
WITH DEPTHS NEAR 574 DAM WHICH FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HAVE STAYED WITH OR RAISED SLIGHTLY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR
TERM...AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS...OVER OUR FA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AIR MASS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH PWAT AROUND 2.1 INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA IN DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. BOTH RUC AND
GFS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. WILL INDICATE CATEGORICAL INTO THE THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE MIDLANDS AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE CSRA.
POPS DECREASING TOWARDS DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY DRIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN
WITH DEPTHS NEAR 574 DAM WHICH FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HAVE STAYED WITH OR RAISED SLIGHTLY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
IN THE NEAR TERM...AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS...OVER OUR FA LATE
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SUCH. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY
FAVORED. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
239 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH H5 RIDGE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE WESTERN US...WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER THE
PLAINS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVE OVER THE CWA
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED EASTWARD WITH A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA WEAKENING THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...HOWEVER WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE IN PLACE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY FURTHER
SOUTH...I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOG/STRATUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BL WINDS INCREASING AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND DESPITE THESE WINDS
LIKELY NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. I LEFT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST SW OF THE CWA. TQ INDEX AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE BOTH
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO ACT AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SEVERE PARAMETERS (ESPECIALLY SHEER) ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SIGNAL IN
MOST GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK HEATING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...AND IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN WESTERLY
0-6KM WINDS MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY EAST INTO OUR CWA BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IN COLORADO STORM TRACKS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO BRING ACTIVITY INTO
OUR CWA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (POSSIBLY
EVEN THE LOWER 80S AT A FEW LOCATIONS). WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE
H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WITH ECMWF/GEM
FLATTENING RIDGE MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS OR GEFS DATA. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY LOW AS WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THIS AND THINK KEEPING
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST MOST PRUDENT THING TO DO AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. COLD FRONT...ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...HAS PASSED
THROUGH WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT SITES. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO NORTH
LATER TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE AS TEMPS COOL...FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF GUIDANCE BUT THINK
THEY ARE DOWNPLAYING THE HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING ON TOP OF
CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FOG/STATUS DEVELOPS AFTER 09Z AND
DISSIPATES BY 15Z. FORECAST FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT TOMORROW WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EAST
OF TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED FORECAST NO DOUBT PROMPTED PRIMARILY BY ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #458 THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL KS AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY. ALSO FINE-TUNED POPS & ASSOCIATED
WEATHER & QPF GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH ANTICIPATED SHORT-TERM
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
TON-SUN: MESOSCALE AGAIN COMPLICATING WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY THAT LINGERS FROM CONVECTION THAT
MOVED INTO AND DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT
APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. RUC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM KEMP TO KCNK BETWEEN 22-23 UTC AND ADVECTING IT
WEST SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AT PRESENT...UNSURE HOW THIS
CONVECTION WILL INTERPLAY WITH CONVECTION THAT SYNOPTIC/MESO MODELS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. A
LARGE VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS KANSAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO COMPACT SHORT WAVE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE
VORTEX...AND JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
KANSAS. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF VARIANCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...FOR TIME
BEING DECIDED TO USE SREF/SSEO AS GUIDE FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE WHICH
BOTH ACCOUNT FOR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. MESOSCALE FORCING WILL DICTATE
PARTICULARS OF CONVECTIONS TRACK...HOWEVER EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF LARGE
SCALE VORTEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS BROADSCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS REGION SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF CWA BY 00 UTC ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION...WITH GUIDANCE
LOOKING REASONABLE.
MON-TUES: ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS
UPPER VORTEX MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA...WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER PLAINS RETROGRADES WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIRMASS
TO OVERSPREAD AREA...WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS EASTERN CANADA/U.S. VORTEX MOVES INTO THE
MARITIME REGION...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL. KANSAS/CWA WILL REMAIN ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY.
GEFS/OPERATIONAL MED-RANGE MODELS HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
NUMEROUS (+)TSRA CONT TO SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL KS WHERE ~35KT GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TIL 06Z. (+)TSRA CURVE SW TOWARD SW KS WITH TSRA SPREADING E
ACRS ALL OF SC KS THRU 10Z WHERE/WHEN 3-4SM VSBYS ARE LIKELY. A 2ND
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ~1500FT CIGS OVER KHUT & KICT FROM 12-15Z.
HAVE PLACED BOTH TERMINALS IN MVFR CIG STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CIGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY WITH BOTH TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR STATUS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 67 87 62 86 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 67 86 62 85 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 67 86 62 85 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 87 65 87 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 65 85 61 86 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 66 85 61 86 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 66 87 62 86 / 20 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 67 87 62 85 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 69 88 66 87 / 40 10 10 10
CHANUTE 68 86 63 84 / 40 10 10 10
IOLA 68 85 63 84 / 40 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 69 87 65 85 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.AVIATION...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS
REMAINING. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP FOG AWAY FROM THE MORE PRONE
SITES LIKE KMCB AND KHUM. AS WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY
MORNING...SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNRISE...WITH MOST
THUNDER HOLDING OFF UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE RATHER HEALTHY AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP
FOR 20Z-24Z AT ALL SITES WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR 25-30 KNOT WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH THIS EVENING/S BALLOON THAT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 22
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING WEST OF LAKE MAUREPAS.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE SLOW MOVERS WITH
0-6KM STORM MOTION OF 300 AT 4 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN HIGH AT 2.15 INCHES AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SHOW SPOTS
WITH AROUND 2 INCH. THE LOW LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 850MB WERE NOT
OVERLY MOIST...BUT FROM 850-500MB THE PROFILE WAS MOISTER WHICH
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE BALLOON PASSING THROUGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTER
MID-LEVELS...NOTE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER FROM 24
HOURS AGO. AS FOR WINDS...THEY WERE GENERALLY VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 450MB. ABOVE
450MB...WINDS WERE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST WHICH CAN BE CONFIRMED
BY VIEWING IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING.
ANSORGE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH THE HIGH REACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO
EASILY OVERCOME ANY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
IN GENERAL COMPARED TO YSTRDY. STORM MOTION HAS FALLEN OFF A BIT
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE THAT MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME SAYS
OTHERWISE. THIS DAILY TREND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
LOWER/MID 90 HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND HEAD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WEST. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE CWA IN AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING RIGHT
OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM AREAL ENHANCEMENT FOR
A FEW DAYS. DOES NOT APPEAR SVR WX WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH WETBULB HT
14KFT AND ABOVE AS WELL AS VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THE TAF SITES...PRIMARILY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY PRIOR TO AND AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING FROM KHUM AND KMCB. 18
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF
MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY STALL
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 18
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 92 73 92 / 20 50 40 50
BTR 74 93 74 92 / 20 40 30 50
ASD 75 92 75 92 / 20 40 30 50
MSY 78 91 78 92 / 20 40 30 50
GPT 78 92 78 93 / 20 40 30 50
PQL 73 91 74 91 / 30 40 30 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GULF OF AK WILL DEEPEN A BIT AND MOVE EAST.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY THIS PERIOD AND PATTERN ALSO
SHIFTS EAST.
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER 1.5 INCHES ON THE MN SIDE OF THE RED
RIVER AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE UNDER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY
THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ON THE MN SIDE. BULK SHEAR ONLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS MOST OF THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AS RIDGE/TROUGH AMPLIFIES. BUT CLOD FRONT IS OUT OF THE AREA
BY THEN.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS. TWEAKED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO SUBSIDENCE...AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ACCOMPANYING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWERED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS 500MB WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE ATTM...SO USED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THEY WERE THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODELS. THUS...INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD TO REFLECT ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
EARLIER IDEA WAS WHAT TO MAKE OF SOME MODELS SHOWING MVFR CIGS
BEHIND FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS MOS AND RAP BACKING OFF
BUT DO SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END VFR CIGS MAYBE MVFR CIGS.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER SO DELAYED WIND SHIFT INTO GFK TIL
10Z OR SO THEN 13Z-15Z IN FAR-TVF AND CLOSER TO 18Z BJI. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTN IN GFK-DVL REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER STILL MOVING SLOWLY EAST..JUST PASSED ROLLA-
RUGBY-ROLLA THEN EXTENDS TOWARD BISMARCK AREA. MOTION EASTWARD
SLOWED DOWN PERHAPS BY UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG SRN END OF FRONT HAS DISSIPATED BUT
STILL GOT A FEW STORMS WEST OF HARVEY THEN NORTHEAST TO WEST OF
LANGDON. A FEW CORES UP THERE ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL NORTHWEST
OF LANGDON. RAP SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATES THOUGH INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS CAPES DIMINISH WELL DOWN TO NR
500 J/KG OR LESS AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN HAS MEANT SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED NE SD AND MUCH OF GRANT CO MN AND THUS TRIMMED POPS A
BIT ALONG SD BORDER TO BETTER MATCH UPDATE FROM WFO ABR/MPX.
BASICALLY KEPT ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE
AREA...WITH ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG FRONT IN NE ND/NRN RRV
OVERNIGHT. LESS BULLISH ON RAINFALL SUNDAY IT APPEARS FARTHER EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVING A BIT
FARTHER EAST AND MAY NOT HOOK UP WITH FRONT UNTIL FARTHER EAST.
STILL THOUGH WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST AS
AT LEAST A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MID MORNING
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF PCPN TO WATCH TONIGHT. FIRST WILL BE ONGOING
WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING
AROUND SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW IN SD. MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY. BANDS OF LIGHT PCPN CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH SO MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THIS EVENING. NEXT AREA OF PCPN
WILL BE ALONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FA LATE THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. OVERALL
INSTABILITY/CAPE/SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK WITH BOTH AREAS SO STRONG STORMS NOT
ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES > AN INCH SO COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS. COLD ADVECTION WITH CFP WILL BE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
ABOVE MID LEVEL FEATURES MERGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO COULD
SEE BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS VALLEY REGION AND WESTERN MN SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS/PCPN AND
COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL PUSH EAST DURING
THE EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...THE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH HAS DOMINATED
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST MONTH CONTINUES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS 12Z MODELS
SIGNAL A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH A RATHER POTENT 500MB WAVE
DISLODGING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS BRING THIS WAVE
AND ITS PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY PM INTO FRIDAY.
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS THURSDAY PM AND ONWARD THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW THE FEATURE EVOLVES REMAINS RATHER HIGH GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
LATELY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
EARLIER IDEA WAS WHAT TO MAKE OF SOME MODELS SHOWING MVFR CIGS
BEHIND FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS MOS AND RAP BACKING OFF
BUT DO SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END VFR CIGS MAYBE MVFR CIGS.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER SO DELAYED WIND SHIFT INTO GFK TIL
10Z OR SO THEN 13Z-15Z IN FAR-TVF AND CLOSER TO 18Z BJI. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTN IN GFK-DVL REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
420 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH GFS ONLY USEFUL FOR TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. SEEMS TO ME THAT ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE. THERE IS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY WITH A DEW POINT TEMP
DISCONTINUITY ACROSS WRN PARTS OF EAST TN THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING STILL INDICATED SO DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. LATEST RAP MODEL RUN DEVELOPS A GREAT DEAL OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE HRRR
SHOWS JUST RANDOM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY.
BASED ON POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE...TAKING A PERSISTENCE APPROACH AND
TRIMMING BACK POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. KEPT LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY WRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
CHANCE WITH SCATTERED WORDING ELSEWHERE. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. TOSSED IN SOME
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT...WITH NO MENTION OF FOG REQUIRED FOR
EARLY TODAY.
WARMER GFS MAX TEMPS ONLY GOOD IF JUST MINIMAL CONVECTION OCCURS
TODAY...SO I OPTED FOR A MOS BLEND. GFS MINS OR A DEGREE WARMER
LOOKED GOOD FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MONDAY SURFACE LOW HAS
ONLY MOVED NORTH SLIGHTLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND DRAPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS GA. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG NE US COAST. ANOTHER FRONT LIES BEHIND THE
LEAD SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS
INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND COLD FRONT TO THE NW CATCHES UP WITH
STATIONARY FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS WILL SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SKIES CONTINUE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT STILL CHANCE POPS AS SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES.
NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 71 87 71 / 70 50 50 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 70 85 69 / 60 50 60 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 70 84 68 / 60 40 60 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 66 82 65 / 50 50 60 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
253 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THE SHORT
TERM MESO MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE
10.05Z HRRR AND 10.00Z HI-RES ARW INDICATING THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD
TAKE WHAT REMAINS OF THIS RAIN PAST THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PLAN TO STAY WITH A DRY MORNING.
HOW THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT IS LESS CLEAR. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING MINNESOTA CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVING THE NEBRASKA
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI. THIS
RESULTS IN THE AREA GETTING SPLIT BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
VERY LITTLE FORCING. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS KEPT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE 10.00Z
NAM SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CAPE BUILDS AND THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THE HI-RES ARW...10.00Z HI-
RES NMM...10.06Z RAP AND 10.00Z ECMWF ALL INDICATE THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHILE THE 10.00Z NAM AND GFS
TRY TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS. TEND TO
THINK THE MESO SCALE MODELS HAVE THE BETTER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CUT
THE RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY JUST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE MAINLY AFTER
21Z.
THE INITIAL TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE PAST THE AREA
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO KEEP THE BULK OF ITS FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME VERY WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. A LITTLE BIT OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO THE WAVE WITH THE NAM
SHOWING 1 TO 2 UBAR/S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE 300K
SURFACE. WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING LOOKING TO BE COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH...WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IN THAT
AREA WITH ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO ADVANCE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TAKING
THE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY. AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF BUT THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
QUICKLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THE ML CAPE WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
750 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...CONCERNED THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE OF THE SCATTERED NATURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT
BACK OUT OF THE 60 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THE SPEED OF THE WAVE ALL THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...THE RAIN CHANCES COULD QUICKLY END LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IT MAY NOT BE NECESSARY TO CONTINUE THESE
INTO MONDAY EVENING AND THIS ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE QUICK EXIT OF THE RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE 10.00Z MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER FOR FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH FLATTENED THE RIDGE
TO ALLOW THESE WAVES TO COME THROUGH...THE CURRENT MODELS MAINTAIN
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND NOW SHOW THESE WAVES COMING
THROUGH MUCH WEAKER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE FORCING WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND ADJUSTED THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS TO SHOW A DRIER
OUTCOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STUCK OVER MICHIGAN WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO NOT CHANGE
MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THE FORECAST MAINTAINS MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS. THERE REMAINS TWO CONCERNS...THOUGH. THE FIRST IS
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS AT LSE IN THE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND AT THE GROUND IS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...10 TO
20 KT WINDS ARE MODELED JUST ABOVE THE GROUND UNTIL 12Z...COMBINED
WITH THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND SCATTERED ALTOSTRATUS AROUND
YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY...THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE JUST MARGINAL. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE BCFG AND SCT LIFR DECK FOR NOW. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS SUNDAY EVENING WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM TO MOVE INTO RST FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE AND THE
EASTERLY DRY FLOW...HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO DECREASE THE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY...BASED ON THE CLEAR SKIES DEPICTED ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP CONTINUE KEEPING ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR THAT MOVED
INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS MORE
STABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING. A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND IT TODAY WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE SIX
TO EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CAPES WILL
BE LESS THAN 300 J/KG OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER TO 400-800 J/KG
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. A
FEW OF THESE MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH
CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE EASTWARD FROM THE FOOTHILLS. WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF I-25 TO NO MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
THE STORMS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO
BORDER MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL MOVE TO EASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA IS NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY REMAINS BENIGN FOR
THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PROGGS SHOW
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TO PREVAIL. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS STILL
SOME AROUND THROUGH THE PERIODS...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. ALTHOUGH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS QUITE A BIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.60 TO 1.00 INCH
RANGE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS
ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 40S F FOR THE WESTERN CWA TO THE UPPER 50S
F EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CAPE IS FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VALUES IN THE 400-1200 J/KG DURING THE LATE DAY PERIODS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE LATE
DAY PERIODS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY BOTH LATE DAY PERIODS...AND "SLIGHT CHANCE"S FOR THE
PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS FLAT UPPER RIDGING ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
AROUND WITH THE HIGHS POPS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY WARM...RIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND VERY ADJACENT PLAINS. NO
NEED TO MENTION ANY THUNDER AT KDEN. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH
WILL BE KEEPING DAILY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. DRY WEATHER WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR THE NATURE COAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...
.LATE MORNING UPDATE (NEXT FEW HOURS)...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY SINCE SUNRISE OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ASHORE AND
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS
AND CONTINUED TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES NORTH
OF I-4 TO THE 60% LIKELY RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
SHOULD THEN TEND TO MIGRATE INLAND RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS JUST A VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED BEYOND 18Z.
&&
.PREVIOUS MORNING UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN BAND
OF WESTERLIES LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AND
NARROW BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LARGEST AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT ENERGY OVER THE CONUS BEING A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER/CLOSED LOW THAT WAS ILL-DEFINED OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY IS NOW A BIT MORE VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT SLIDES WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
FEATURE IS MOST DEFINED ABOVE 500MB...AND NWP GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED IN KEEPING THIS ENERGY ON A PROGRESSIVE WESTWARD TRACK INTO
THE SE GOMEX BY MONDAY. SOME DRIER AIR ON THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA...BUT WILL GENERALLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH/SE DURING THE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TODAY. SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THIS
DRIER AIR WILL COME FURTHER NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THE DEGREE
OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE FAVORABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
10/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE IS SIMILAR (PERHAPS A TAD MORE MOIST)
THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.9"...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. LAPSE RATES AGAIN
ARE ON THE POOR SIDE...AND HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM A
DEGREE OR 2 IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. 500MB TEMPS WAS MEASURED -6C...WITH IS FAIRLY WARM.
IN ADDITION...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 15KFT...AND WET BULB ZERO
NEAR 14KFT. THESE VALUES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL IS
LIKELY EITHER. SO THERE ARE ALL THE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN IS NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THETA-E VALUES IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 320S TO LOWER 330S. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY
ENTRAINMENT ISSUES FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE COLUMNS. THEREFORE...
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE PULSE STORMS IS NOT
ZERO...BUT IS RATHER LOW. "RUN OF THE MILL" SUMMER STRENGTH STORMS
APPEAR TO BE NORM.
WELL...THE AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS WHERE
WE EXPECTED IT TO BE THIS MORNING (SARASOTA NORTHWARD)...HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS THAN MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS WOULD
HAVE SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
EXPECTED CONVERGENCE BAND DID SET UP...WITH THAT THE MODELS WERE
A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE...AND THAT
EXPLAINS THE LOWER COVERAGE. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SCT
OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD SHORE OVER THIS FAVORED REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPRESSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS
BY A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
CONFIGURATION IS SUPPLYING A 1000-700MB MEAN SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SW (MOST DEFINED NORTH OF TAMPA IN LESS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS). WOULD EXPECT A CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PATTERN SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH THIS SETUP AND GENERALLY SIMILAR SOUNDING PROFILE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75
BY MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS QUICKLY
MIGRATING/DEVELOPING INLAND BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS CONVECTIVE CLEARING LINE IS LIKELY TO MAKE EVEN
MORE INLAND PENETRATION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST
POPS BY 20Z SHOULD MOST CERTAINLY BE WELL INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AT THE BEACHES.
EVENING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND BOUNDARY FOCUS WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. A MOSTLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT WILL FOLLOW. LATE AT NIGHT...THE SW
FLOW (AS CLIMO WOULD SUGGEST) SHOULD BEGIN TO BUBBLE UP SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE SHOWERS
MIGRATING TO THE COAST BY DAWN. THE SW FLOW AND SOME ADDED FOCUS
CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE COAST WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD JUST IN CASE A WEAK LAND BREEZE CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE
WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND SET UP A BRIEF WINDOW OF
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AROUND SUNRISE.
TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REPEAT THE FORECAST
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STILL IN THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATION. SW FLOW BRINGS A FEW STORMS TO COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN PROGRESSES THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTION INLAND. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AT THE
PRESENT TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A DRY/DEEP ENOUGH TO BE A
BIG NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE A GREAT REST
OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WESTERLY FLOW...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
ARE MIGRATING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF AND ANY OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS
MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TOWARD
MIDDAY...COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TO SEE A STORM PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND FROM
I-75...WITH KLAL THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE A BRIEF STORM AFTER
19Z. STORMS WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF AND NEAR-SHORE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHIFT INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. ONLY HAZARDS WILL BE
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS...LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 79 92 78 / 40 20 20 20
FMY 94 77 93 77 / 30 10 40 20
GIF 94 75 93 76 / 50 20 40 10
SRQ 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 20 20
BKV 92 73 92 73 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 91 80 91 80 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
LATE MORNING UPDATE/PREVIOUS MORNING UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OF THE H100-H70 LYR SHOWING A WELL DEFINED ATLC
RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL. INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE SE
CONUS IS PRODUCING A DEEP LYR W/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL...MORNING
KTBW/KXMR/KJAX SOUNDINGS MEASURING 10-15KTS THRU THE H100-H50
LYR...BCMG S AND DECREASING ARND 5KTS AT KMFL. PWAT VALUES ARND 2.0"
AT KTBW/KXMR/KJAX DECREASING TO ARND 1.7" AT KMFL. RUC SHOWING THIS
BNDRY WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR... DECREASING TO ARND 60PCT OVER S FL.
MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST THRU THE H85-H70 LYR...BUT ONLY
5.8-6.3C/KM AT THAT. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES DROP TO ARND 5.5C/KM. THE
ACCOMPANYING MID LVL VORT FIELDS ARE UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WEAK
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE PALM COAST BUT NEARLY
FLATLINE IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A 35KT NERLY JET MAX
CENTERED JUST N OF ANDROS ISLAND IS PLACING PORTIONS OF THE CWA
UNDER ITS DESCENDING LEFT EXIT QUAD...LEAVING THE H30-H20 LYR WEAKLY
CONVERGENT.
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE...BUT STRONGER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...LEAVING STORMS
WITHOUT A LOW LVL FOCUS. DRIER AND WEAKER DYNAMIC SUPPORT S OF I-4
WILL RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE...BUT WEAKER WINDS SHOULD THE SEA
BREEZE TO FORM S OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY MID AFTN. IF IT DOES...THE
LOW LVL FOCUS WILL GIVE ANY TSTMS THE ABILITY TO TAP THE DRIER MID
LVL AIR...THUS ADDING TO THEIR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.
IN A NUTSHELL...HIGHER COVERAGE/LOWER POTENTIAL N OF I-4...LOWER
COVERAGE/HIGHER POTENTIAL S OF I-4. WRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 10/17Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...SFC WND SW 5-10KTS...ISOLD
MVFR SHRAS MVG E FM THE GULF COAST MAY AFFECT KLEE AFTER 10/15Z.
BTWN 10/17Z-10/19Z...SFC WNDSHFT TO SE ARND 10KTS BTWN KVRB-KSUA...
SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MVG
E/NE 10-15KTS. BTWN 10/19Z-10/22Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF
KMLB-KISM...SFC WND G3KTS PSBL IN ISOLD +TSRA. BTWN 10/22Z-11/01Z
SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS SHIFTING S OF KMLB-KISM WITH SFC WND
G3KTS PSBL IN ISOLD +TSRA...VFR N OF KMLB-KISM. AFT 11/02Z...VFR ALL
SITES...SW SFC WND AOB 5KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
WELL DEFINED ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GOMEX WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE TODAY.
LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE MAY FORM S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...FORCING WINDS
TO VEER TO THE S/SE FOR A FEW HRS. OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE LCL ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...RESULTING IN SEAS AOB 2FT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH DOMINANT PDS ARND 9SEC. SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PGRAD N OF
SEBASTIAN INLET MAY GENERATE SUFFICIENT SFC WNDS TO ALLOW THE GULF
STREAM SEAS TO REACH THE 3FT MARK.
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY BOATING THREAT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
IMPACT WX/RADAR.......LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
920 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN BAND
OF WESTERLIES LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AND
NARROW BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LARGEST AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT ENERGY OVER THE CONUS BEING A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER/CLOSED LOW THAT WAS ILL-DEFINED OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY IS NOW A BIT MORE VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT SLIDES WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
FEATURE IS MOST DEFINED ABOVE 500MB...AND NWP GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED IN KEEPING THIS ENERGY ON A PROGRESSIVE WESTWARD TRACK INTO
THE SE GOMEX BY MONDAY. SOME DRIER AIR ON THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA...BUT WILL GENERALLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH/SE DURING THE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TODAY. SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THIS
DRIER AIR WILL COME FURTHER NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THE DEGREE
OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE FAVORABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
10/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE IS SIMILAR (PERHAPS A TAD MORE MOIST)
THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.9"...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. LAPSE RATES AGAIN
ARE ON THE POOR SIDE...AND HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM A
DEGREE OR 2 IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. 500MB TEMPS WAS MEASURED -6C...WITH IS FAIRLY WARM.
IN ADDITION...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 15KFT...AND WET BULB ZERO
NEAR 14KFT. THESE VALUES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL IS
LIKELY EITHER. SO THERE ARE ALL THE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER...THE COLUMN IS NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THETA-E VALUES IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 320S TO LOWER 330S. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY
ENTRAINMENT ISSUES FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE COLUMNS. THEREFORE...
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE PULSE STORMS IS NOT
ZERO...BUT IS RATHER LOW. "RUN OF THE MILL" SUMMER STRENGTH STORMS
APPEAR TO BE NORM.
WELL...THE AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS WHERE
WE EXPECTED IT TO BE THIS MORNING (SARASOTA NORTHWARD)...HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS THAN MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS WOULD
HAVE SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
EXPECTED CONVERGENCE BAND DID SET UP...WITH THAT THE MODELS WERE
A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE...AND THAT
EXPLAINS THE LOWER COVERAGE. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SCT
OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD SHORE OVER THIS FAVORED REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPRESSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS
BY A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
CONFIGURATION IS SUPPLYING A 1000-700MB MEAN SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SW (MOST DEFINED NORTH OF TAMPA IN LESS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS). WOULD EXPECT A CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PATTERN SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH THIS SETUP AND GENERALLY SIMILAR SOUNDING PROFILE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75
BY MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS QUICKLY
MIGRATING/DEVELOPING INLAND BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS CONVECTIVE CLEARING LINE IS LIKELY TO MAKE EVEN
MORE INLAND PENETRATION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST
POPS BY 20Z SHOULD MOST CERTAINLY BE WELL INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AT THE BEACHES.
EVENING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND BOUNDARY FOCUS WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. A MOSTLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT WILL FOLLOW. LATE AT NIGHT...THE SW
FLOW (AS CLIMO WOULD SUGGEST) SHOULD BEGIN TO BUBBLE UP SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE SHOWERS
MIGRATING TO THE COAST BY DAWN. THE SW FLOW AND SOME ADDED FOCUS
CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE COAST WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD JUST IN CASE A WEAK LAND BREEZE CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE
WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND SET UP A BRIEF WINDOW OF
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AROUND SUNRISE.
TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REPEAT THE FORECAST
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STILL IN THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATION. SW FLOW BRINGS A FEW STORMS TO COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN PROGRESSES THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTION INLAND. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AT THE
PRESENT TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A DRY/DEEP ENOUGH TO BE A
BIG NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE A GREAT REST
OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WESTERLY FLOW...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
ARE MIGRATING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF AND ANY OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS
MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TOWARD
MIDDAY...COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TO SEE A STORM PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND FROM
I-75...WITH KLAL THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE A BRIEF STORM AFTER
19Z. STORMS WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF AND NEAR-SHORE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHIFT INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. ONLY HAZARDS WILL BE
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS...LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 79 92 78 / 40 20 20 20
FMY 94 77 93 77 / 30 10 40 20
GIF 94 75 93 76 / 50 20 40 10
SRQ 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 20 20
BKV 92 73 92 73 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 91 80 91 80 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
721 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
...ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE THOUGH TONIGHT...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA INTO MONDAY...THEN BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING THE
MIDDLE THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN CROSS THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE. HIGH RES MODELS
STILL SHOW A SIG HVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA TDA. THE GOING FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
A PESKY STNRY FNT WAS PSND ACROSS THE SRN PEE DEE AND SRN MIDLANDS
ERLY THIS MRNG PER 10/06Z SFC ANALYSIS...ESSENTIALLY BISECTING
PARTS OF BERKELEY AND UPR CHARLESTON COUNTIES. THE FNT CONTS TO BE
A FOCUS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THIS MRNG...MAINLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
UPSTATE WHERE APRCHG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENHANCING UVV/S IN THAT
AREA. 10/00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORT ANOTHER VRY BUSY DAY FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH VRY HIGH PWATS RUNNING 120 PCNT OF NORMAL INTERACTING
WITH THE SAID FNT AND WAVES OF UPSTREAM VORTICITY TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTMS. RAP WND PROFILES FAVOR BACK-
BUILDING/CONVECTIVE TRAINING BEHAVIOR AGAIN TDA WITH VRY LGT
925-700 HPA WND FIELDS IN PLACE COINCIDENT WITH A SYNOPTIC
ENVIRON SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RNFL. THE RISK FOR BACK-BUILDING WL
BE ENHANCED ALONG THE FNT ITSELF AS IT DRAFTS S AS WELL AS
ALONG ANY MESOSCALE BNDRY COLLISIONS SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. DATA ALSO SUGGEST A WK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD
FORM ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BNDRY LTR THIS MRNG...WHICH WL FURTHER
INCR LOW-LVL CONVG ACROSS THE RGN. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WL SUPPORT
AN INCRD RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SRN SC AND SE GA AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED THROUGH LTE TNGT FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA PER WFO/NCEP COORDINATION. SIMILAR TO YDA...AN ISOLD
STG/SVR TSTM CAN TO BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH CONDS FAVORING
MARGINALLY SVR WET MICROBURSTS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND QPF
AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST NSSL 4KM-WRF AND THE
LATEST HIGH RES ARW TO CONSTRUCT POPS/TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
THIS AFTN AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST OVR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PLAN TO RAISE POPS TO 70-100 PCNT FOR ALL ZONES TDA WITH
THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH THE AFTN PER
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSOLATION THIS MRNG
TO BOOST TEMPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPR 80S N TO LWR 90S S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTMS WL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNSET WITH HIGH
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD MOVE S
OUT OF SRN SC INTO COASTAL SE GA. THIS IS CONCERNING AS THIS COULD
IMPACT THE SAV METRO AREA DURING ALREADY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...THUS ENHANCING THE RISK FOR SIG FLASH FLOODING. ADJUSTED
GRIDDED POPS TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S WITH HIGHER
POPS SHIFTING BACK N OVRNGT BACK NEAR THE VCNTY OF THE STNRY FNT...
WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN SC. IT WL CONT BE QUITE MUGGY
WITH LOWS IN THE THE MID-UPR 70S.
MONDAY...THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...WHILE A FAIRLY WEAK TROUGH
PATTERN PREVAILS ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY FAR TO THE NORTH...DIVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...WILL EXTEND THE
UPPER TROUGH DOWN TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MEANDERING FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO THE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING PATTERN...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COASTLINE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
OVERNIGHT. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WAVE
WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION...WILL
MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 2.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH STORM MOTIONS
LESS THAN 10 KT...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE. THICK CLOUD COVER AND DECENT RAIN COVERAGE WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST A DEGREE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RANGING FROM AROUND 89 DEGREES NORTH TO 92 SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN
THE EAST COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY PICKING UP THE
SURFACE LOW AND DRIVING IT NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 50
PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRAILING/WEAK FRONT. STORM MOTIONS ARE NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES. THUS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BEST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
NEARBY WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK...WITH A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE COAST IN ITS WAKE. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING
A REMNANT BAND OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FEATURES...YET
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PERIODS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY/MID
AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...EXPECT IT TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DRIER AIR TO SUPPORT A MORE SEASONAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SCENARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE A BIT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE RGN. BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM IMPACTS THIS AFTN.
WL CALL FOR PREVAILING MVFR TSRA AT KCHS BY 18Z AND 20Z AT KSAV
WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS MARGINAL IFR FOR MAINLY HVY RAIN. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WL PUSH INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS BY
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER AT KSAV A BIT LONGER IF THE LATEST NSSL
WRF VERIFIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LGT WND FIELDS WL PERSIST AS A STNRY FNT CONTS
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SC WTRS. SLGTLY HIGHER WNDS WL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE GA WTRS...BUT BOTH WNDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN WELL BLO ANY
ADV THRESHOLDS. A FEW STG TSTMS WL BE PSBL THROUGH TNGT WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS. THIS WL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OTLK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A MEANDERING WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER OR
NEAR THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...AND SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE OFFSHORE
FROM LAND AREAS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 OR 40 KT...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM FRONT
AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...YET
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PERIODICALLY OCCUR...ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS WITH LESS FREQUENCY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV...SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDS FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RNFL THROUGH TNGT.
MANY AREAS...ESP ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...SAW
UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES WITH
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING NOTED IN DWTN CHARLESTON PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING WAS
ALSO OBSERVED IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS AS WELL.
WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HVY RAINS...1-HR AND
3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST 24 HRS. WITH THE ENVIRON SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT
RNFL...THESE VALUES COULD BE EASILY SURPASSED WHERE THE HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CONGLOMERATES FORM. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD
FALL PRIOR TO AND/OR DURING HIGH TIDE...WHERE TIDE LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING VRY HIGH DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. THIS WL
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS. XPCT GENERAL RNFL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH TNGT WITH
ISOLD AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 6-8 INCHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TNGT. CURRENT
AND FCST TIDAL DEPARTURES SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WL BREACH MODERATE
FLOOD THRESHOLDS ALONG THE LWR SC COAST AND SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE UPR GA COAST. XPCT TIDES OF 7.4-7.7 FT
MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH 9.2 TO 9.5 FT MLLW AT FT
PULASKI. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...HVY RAINS COULD FALL AROUND/NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WL ONLY EXACERBATE ENHANCE THE FLOOD
IMPACT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADV WL BE ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...
INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...FROM 7PM-MIDNIGHT.
THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDE WILL OCCUR TDA AND THESE ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ELEVATED TIDES INTO EARLY
THIS WEEK. SINCE ONLY SMALL DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING...THIS WILL LIKELY BOOST TIDE LEVELS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
SHOULD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF THE ELEVATED HIGH
TIDES...RUNOFF WILL BE INHIBITED AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
COULD OCCUR WITHIN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC WSR-88D /KCLX/ REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL FAILURE. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE HAS THE RADAR
RETURNING TO SERVICE BETWEEN AUGUST 21 AND 25.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-
114>119-137>141.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
950 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Showers continue to drift west/northwest across parts of central
and southeast Illinois late this morning, associated with a
trough/shear axis that extends from just north of Lawrenceville to
near Macomb. Heaviest showers since sunrise have been northwest of
the Illinois River, with latest radar images showing the heavier
precipitation now across Stark County. HRRR shows the showers in
that area weakening this morning as the trough becomes more
diffuse, with the greater concentration during the afternoon still
expected closer to the Indiana border. Thunder threat should
mainly be this afternoon across the eastern CWA, as some breaks in
the cloud cover allow the atmosphere along the trough to
destabilize some.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A few features to keep an eye on during the next 24 hours with
respect to precipitation risk. The first is a wavy frontal boundary
extending from eastern KY/TN westward into the central plains. Also
of note is a weak trof extending northwest from a very weak surface
low over central KY into central Illinois. This trof/shear axis has
some depth to it, and has been associated with light rain/drizzle
across the forecast area overnight. Another frontal boundary,
oriented northeast to southwest, will slowly approach from the
northwest tonight.
The trof/shear axis across much of the forecast area should continue
to produce a risk of precipitation while it is around today, with a
maximum risk associated with peak diurnal heating. While the details
are unclear, will need to keep an eye on some potential enhancement
that may occur with a possible arrival of a MCV out of plains storm
complex. Then low rain chances will increase again from the west
late tonight with the approach of the front from the northwest.
Have trended forecast cloudier, as there is not a significant
mechanism to scour the clouds currently in the area out. As a
result, have also tweaked the high temperatures down a bit today in
light of the 70s that were seen in many areas yesterday beneath the
cloud cover, and the decent probability that this may occur again
today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
00Z forecast model suite continues to deepen a strong upper level
trof into the Great Lakes region Monday with surface low pressure
strengthening as it lifts NE into IN and SE lower MI Monday night
while bringing a frontal boundary east of IL by Monday evening. This
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to central and
especially eastern IL Monday and lingering chances near the IN
border til sunset. SPC keeps 5% risk of severe storms south and east
of IL. Highs in the lower 80s Monday with mid 80s near
Lawrenceville. Lows Monday night in the lower 60s, with mid 60s SE
of I-70.
Strong upper level trof over IL and Ohio river valley Tue while
surface low pressure deepens into southeast Ontario Canada. Best
chances of showers and thunderstorms shifts east of IL Tue, and just
have slight chances near the IN border. Highs in the upper 70s Tue
with lower 80s by Lawrenceville. Cooler and less humid air filters
during Tue and Tue night with lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s.
Dry conditions prevail from Tue night through Thu night as weak
Canadian high pressure around 1020 mb settles into the region Wed
night and Thu. Below normal highs of 75-80F again on Wed and around
80F Thu. Lows Wed night in the upper 50s to near 60F and around 60F
Thu night.
IL gets into a WNW flow aloft late this week with more unsettled
weather pattern evolving Friday into next weekend. Surface high
pressure ridge shifts east of IL by Friday with return southerly
flow by next weekend bringing temps and humidity levels back up.
ECMWF model is slower bringing in next weather system and now keeps
much of central/SE IL dry on Friday while bringing QPF into area Fri
night and Saturday and dry again on Sunday and very warm & humid.
GFS has a wetter solution in extended forecast with qpf overnight
Thu night through Sunday. GEM is dry on Thu night and Friday which
better matches ECMWF model and tended to lean in this direction.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Patchy MVFR conditions to start the day across the central
Illinois, along with isolated showers. Expect VFR conditions to
prevail by midday, with slightly greater coverage of showers and
storms. However, do not have high enough confidence at any one
terminal to go above VCSH mention at this time.
Loss of diurnal heating will reduce precipitation coverage or
bring it to an end for a time tonight. Thinner cloud cover tonight
is apt to allow MVFR fog to develop overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THUS THE SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THERE ARE NOW QUESTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND TRENDS
WITH THE RAP HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR KOWB WITH DIFFUSE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND WEST FROM IT. ACROSS THE PLAINS
THERE WERE NUMEROUS WEAK CONVECTIVE INDUCED LOWS AND HIGHS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE PUSHING INTO THE
FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. THESE SPRINKLES/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING
AS THE FORCING ACROSS ILLINOIS MOVES EAST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN BE SEEN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THAT
SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI AND
GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY INTERCEPT
THE WEAK INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY KEEP THE
AREA DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINLY
BECAUSE GFS IS TOO WET.
ON MONDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS MAIN PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS IA AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. THUS DRY FORECAST IN STORE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EARLY THURSDAY...WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO AREA. UPPER FORCING LAGS
BEHIND...NOT AFFECTING THE CWFA UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF DEPICTS A WARM FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...THUS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/11 BUT SOME VERY PATCHY
MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z/10. VCSH WAS ADDED TO ALL
TAFS AFT 21Z/10 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA OR EVEN A TSRA
AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS 10 PERCENT AT BEST. AFT 06Z/11 CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VCSH.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MINOR UPDATE TO SKY/POP/WX TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
UPSTREAM TRENDS AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT. STILL NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE OVER OUR CWA DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY...AND
BETTER UP-STREAM COVERAGE LIKELY TO MISS OUR CWA BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS 20 PERCENT...AND ONLY ADJUSTED
TIMING TO ADD MENTION FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH H5 RIDGE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE WESTERN US...WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER THE
PLAINS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVE OVER THE CWA
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED EASTWARD WITH A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA WEAKENING THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...HOWEVER WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE IN PLACE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY FURTHER
SOUTH...I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOG/STRATUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BL WINDS INCREASING AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND DESPITE THESE WINDS
LIKELY NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. I LEFT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST SW OF THE CWA. TQ INDEX AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE BOTH
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO ACT AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SEVERE PARAMETERS (ESPECIALLY SHEER) ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SIGNAL IN
MOST GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK HEATING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...AND IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN WESTERLY
0-6KM WINDS MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY EAST INTO OUR CWA BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IN COLORADO STORM TRACKS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO BRING ACTIVITY INTO
OUR CWA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (POSSIBLY
EVEN THE LOWER 80S AT A FEW LOCATIONS). WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE
H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WITH ECMWF/GEM
FLATTENING RIDGE MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS OR GEFS DATA. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY LOW AS WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THIS AND THINK KEEPING
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST MOST PRUDENT THING TO DO AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE
MORNING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POSSIBLE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF 1000-1500 FT CLOUDS HOWEVER THIS HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED ISOLATED AND TRANSITIONAL. I HAVE DECIDE TO
KEEP TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER WITH MOIST BL
CONDITIONS I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CIGS/FOG TO MVFR...MAYBE
EVEN IFR. AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER BOTH TERMINALS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KMCK AND DEVELOP
NEAR THE KGLD TERMINAL. BASED ON RADAR AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHER FOR THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
KMCK...SO I INTRODUCED A VCTS GROUP. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AT
KGLD AND IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES REACH KGLD IT MAY BE VERY ISOLATED
IN NATURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH H5 RIDGE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE WESTERN US...WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER THE
PLAINS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVE OVER THE CWA
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED EASTWARD WITH A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA WEAKENING THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...HOWEVER WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE IN PLACE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY FURTHER
SOUTH...I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOG/STRATUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BL WINDS INCREASING AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND DESPITE THESE WINDS
LIKELY NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. I LEFT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST SW OF THE CWA. TQ INDEX AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE BOTH
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO ACT AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SEVERE PARAMETERS (ESPECIALLY SHEER) ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SIGNAL IN
MOST GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK HEATING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...AND IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN WESTERLY
0-6KM WINDS MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY EAST INTO OUR CWA BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IN COLORADO STORM TRACKS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO BRING ACTIVITY INTO
OUR CWA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (POSSIBLY
EVEN THE LOWER 80S AT A FEW LOCATIONS). WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE
H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WITH ECMWF/GEM
FLATTENING RIDGE MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS OR GEFS DATA. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY LOW AS WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THIS AND THINK KEEPING
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST MOST PRUDENT THING TO DO AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE
MORNING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POSSIBLE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF 1000-1500 FT CLOUDS HOWEVER THIS HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED ISOLATED AND TRANSITIONAL. I HAVE DECIDE TO
KEEP TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER WITH MOIST BL
CONDITIONS I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CIGS/FOG TO MVFR...MAYBE
EVEN IFR. AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER BOTH TERMINALS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KMCK AND DEVELOP
NEAR THE KGLD TERMINAL. BASED ON RADAR AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHER FOR THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
KMCK...SO I INTRODUCED A VCTS GROUP. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AT
KGLD AND IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES REACH KGLD IT MAY BE VERY ISOLATED
IN NATURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1141 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO FEATURE 1022+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, PW
VALUE WHICH ARE LARGELY AOB 1.5" (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW
ZONES) AND STRONG MID LEVEL CAP (SUBSIDENCE ALOFT)...HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR MOST OF PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. DID HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHC
(20-30% POP) THIS AFTERNOON OVER SAME SPOTS IN THE SW CWA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY THIS AFTN, BUT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF POSSIBLE WHERE A SHRA POPS UP. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS STILL PICKING UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON...PLACING LIGHT MODEL QPF FROM THE
PENINSULA NWD TO THE NRN NECK. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE/DRY LOW
LEVELS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY QUICK SHOWERS
WOULD BE VERY LOW AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL VA NEWD
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE SW AS CU BEGINS TO
FILL IN EARLY THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA OVER TO THE EASTERN SHORE,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS SEWD OVER THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDWEST...PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OFFSHORE...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE SE STATES. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SC. SFC LOW WEST OF THE REGION BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD MON AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 HIGH ALSO PUSHES
OFFSHORE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN SELY FLOW FROM THE GULF
STREAM. EXPECT TWO AREAS OF PRECIP MON...THE FIRST LIFTING OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE SECOND OVER THE CAROLINAS. WHILE MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK
OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY WIN OUT OVER
CENTRAL VA NEWD TO THE ERN SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON THE WRN
AND SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE OH VALLEY MON NIGHT-TUES AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY TUES. AMPLIFYING
FLOW WILL LIFT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NWD AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE WARM SEASON WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT AS THE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE SCT SHOWERS BEGINNING MON
NIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TUES. THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL
PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MLCAPE VALUES AOB 1K J/KG)
FOR EMBEDDED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR REMAINS
UNIMPRESSIVE...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS
THE REGION IN GENERAL THUNDER. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM...RUNNING 1-2 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S SE (STILL IN
THE WEDGE) TO LOW 80S NE. HIGHS TUES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-50%) EVERYWHERE TUESDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING TO 20-30% POPS EAST OF I-95 WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY
ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF BY THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD 80-85.
LOWS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT WED AND THURS NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AND LEAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH E/SE FLOW OF 10 KT OR
LESS. ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KECG...DRY ELSEWHERE TODAY
AS BULK OF PRECIP STAYS FARTHER SOUTH OVER NC.
OUTLOOK...PATTERN TURNS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED MON/TUE AS FLOW TURNS
TO THE SE AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH SOME LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY MON AM...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUE NIGHT/WED
WITH VFR/DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOW TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENLY 5-10
KT OVER THE BAY/RIVERS TO AROUND 10 KT OFFSHORE. AS A SECONDARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS A BIT OFF THE SE COAST ON MON...ALLOWING
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT LATE MON/TUE. WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING LOCKED IN PLACE...THE RESULT WILL BE FOR
BUILDING SEAS. HAVE 2-3 FT SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...THEN
INCREASING TO 4-6 FT MON NIGHT/TUE. 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE MON-TUE (POSSIBLY TO 3-4 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY). SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES LATE MON INTO TUE.
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN LATE TUE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES THE AREA ON WED. SEAS FORECAST
TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TIDAL ANOMALIES FROM ABOUT 0.5 FT TODAY TO UPWARDS OF
1 FOOT MON/TUE. COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO A
FULL MOON AND HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING MON/TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUPY AIR ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ALREADY WET GROUND...WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY...FANNING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES JUST YET...BUT AM DEBATING SOME.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IT WOULD SEEM THAT
RAINFALL IS NOW GOING TO GRAVITATE TOWARDS SC ZONES DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THIS BODES WELL FOR OUR FLOOD-WEARY NC ZONES
ESPECIALLY PENDER COUNTY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOOD
DAMAGE AND THE HEIGHTENED SENSITIVITY TO ANY ADDITIONAL WATER IN
SOME OF THOSE AREAS WILL WAIT A BIT LONGER AND MAKE DARN SURE THAT
THOSE AREAS ARE NOT GOING TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL. BUT AGAIN FOR NOW THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WELL TO OUR
SOUTH HAS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAXED OVER FAR SRN ZONES...WITH
MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000 RANGE...BUT RUC ALSO INDICATIVE THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY CAPPED EVEN TO LAYER MIXING. SO ONCE AGAIN
WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AS A PRECAUTION BUT NRN
ZONES WILL HAVE POPS LOWERED A BIT AND QPF EVEN MORESO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY AND AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SINCE LOCAL GROUNDS ARE SOGGY. THE PRESENCE OF
A PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED POP VALUES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY COMPARED TO NORMAL SUMMER STANDARDS. OTHER THAN
THE THREAT OF FLOODING...NO OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS STAND
OUT AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THIS PERIOD WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW 80S AND POSSIBLE MIDDLE 80S
TUESDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY STILL IN THE MIX. MINS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY HELD IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM SATURDAY...A TRANSITION PERIOD AS WESTERLY FLOW AND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
AUGUST TO THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS A WIND-SHIFT TO THE
NORTH N-NNE LOOKS TO OCCUR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AND PERHAPS CLEARING VERY NE SC AND THE WINYAH BAY REGION
SUNRISE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES GREATLY DIMINISH DUE TO THE DRYING
AND ESPECIALLY THE MID LEVELS. AUGUST HEATING MAY SPARK ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTION BUT SLIGHT CHANCE DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE DAY
4-7 EXTENDED PERIOD ZFP. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL IN
THE 60S THU/FRI NIGHT INLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR AT KFLO/KLBT THIS MORNING. AT KILM ITS VFR
WHILE AT KCRE/KMYR TEMPO IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING. MOST OF THE
SHRA ARE OCCURRING NE OF KLBT TO NEAR KILM. OTHER SHOWERS ARE S-SE
OF KMYR. MOST OF THE SHRA IS LIGHT...EXCEPT MDT-HVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING JUST SE OF KILM. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BEING
DETECTED.
THROUGH MID-MORNING EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KFLO/KLBT TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO IFR. IFR CIGS COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF THIS AT KFLO. AT KLBT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR. IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CIGS AT KLBT BUT KFLO COULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR.
THROUGH MID MORNING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MVFR/TEMPO IFR
VSBYS COULD OCCUR IN SHOWERS NEAR KILM. THROUGH MID MORNING IFR/LIFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KCRE/KMYR. SHOWERS SHOULD TEND
TO DISSIPATE NEAR KILM MID-LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING TO THE KCRE/KMYR/KFLO TERMINALS FOR LATE MORNING/ AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...A BUMPY 3-4 FEET ON THE WATERS WITH 10-15
KT SE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...AS A MODERATE E-ENE WIND FLOW
IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LIMIT VSBYS TO 1 NM AT
TIMES DUE TO TROPICAL AIR MASS TYPE RAINS. THE SEA SPECTRUM MOSTLY
A MDT E CHOP WITH DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY IN THE 4-5 SECONDS
RANGE...MIXED WITH WEAKER LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES. ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL PUSH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND MARINERS SHOULD BE
MINDFUL OF RADAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW STORM MOTION COULD
RESULT IN UNPREDICTABLE BLOSSOMING OF NEW STORM GROWTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONT BISECTING THE WATERS WILL
SUSTAIN ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS...AND UNSETTLED
MARINE WX TO BOOT. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES.
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED. TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SW WINDS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTN AND NIGHT OF 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO
ADVISORY EXPECTED BUT A CAUTION STATEMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RESIDUAL E-ESE WAVES WILL PREVAIL MON/TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO
MDT SW CHOP LATE INTO TUESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD OBTAIN A RADAR FIX
THIS PERIOD BEFORE DEPARTURE SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM SATURDAY...A TRANSITION PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...CROSSES THE COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO N AND NE INTO THURSDAY. A CAUTION STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED BUT ADVISORIES APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TSTMS WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR FILERS IN
OVER THE WATERS. THE NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND DIE WITH RETURN FLOW
QUICK ON THE HEELS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM SUNDAY...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING HIGH SURF
RUN-UP ON AREA BEACHES WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE IN THE MID EVENING.
WITH A SLIGHT LAG-TIME THIS WILL ALSO BRING FLOODING TO PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON
AREA. FOR THIS REASON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
TIDAL DECLINES OCCUR/PREDICTED MONDAY ONWARD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC
SHORT TERM...8
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING IN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG AND NEAR AN
850MB BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT WELL SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NOSED IN THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
CONTINUED EXPECTATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...POSSIBLY WITH SOME DRYING PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THESE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE TO NOT BE HIGHLY PLENTIFUL. THE RESULT COULD BE AREAS OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
THE ONLY CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND
CONTINUOUS RAIN ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE 850MB FRONT. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES DO SHOW SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS IN THAT AREA. GIVEN SOME OF THE REPORTS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS...NOTED AROUND 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTY...FOR EXAMPLE...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ON THE
OTHER HAND...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER NORTH AND
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OVERALL FOR A WHILE...OPTED TO DISCONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CHATHAM...WAKE...AND WILSON COUNTIES. WILL
REVIEW THE ONGOING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER TRIMMING LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT...AND FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SOME SHALLOW DRY AIR RETREATING NORTHWARD. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE...ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
TEMPS FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID-UPR 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD...IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THE SFC WAVE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BUT GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CHALLENGES...CONFIDENCE ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
FORECAST WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS BUT LIGHT QPF. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY... A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ALONG THE STATIONARY/WEDGE FRONT OVER SC
EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME OF THE CAD AIRMASS TO LINGER INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOWS. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PRIMARY LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRYING AT
700MB...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE CAD EROSION. WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER SPEED MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDENT
WITH THE WARM SECTOR MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN NC. THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL SHOW A 40 POP OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDING DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...AND
PREFER NAM/ECMWF BASED GUIDANCE OVER THE GFS WHICH LOOKS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAD EROSION. A GUIDANCE BLEND YIELDS 80-85
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALOFT...A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW...ALBEIT STILL CYCLONIC AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PW DOWN TO AROUND
ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREEPING BACK
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 80S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA AND MAY HELP IMPROVE CIGS TO 1500FT AGL OR
HIGHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS HAPPENING STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM KRDU NORTH AND EASTWARD.
SINCE THE NEAR-SFC LAYER WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...TONIGHT
AFTER 03Z-06Z...LOW CLOUDS AND IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC. WINDS DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD WILL REMAIN E-ENE WIND BELOW 10KT.
BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL MEAN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
747 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM SUN...UPDATED POPS THIS MORNING AS GREATER COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OCCURING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS NOT CAPTURING
PRECIP TOO WELL THIS MORNING. FOLLOWED HRRR FOR PRECIP TRENDS THIS
MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NC CONSISTS OF WNW FLOW
JUST SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA...GENERALLY AN EAST-WEST LINE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LIKELY DUE TO
SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH BRINGING DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WEAKENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC
DOWN-GLIDE...AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH MODELS
INDICATING PWATS DROPPING AS LOW AS 1 TO 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA (HOWEVER REMAIN AROUND 1.5-2" SOUTHWEST SECTIONS).
SO WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO LIKELY FAR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRES THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
TO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR LATER TODAY. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND LITTLE SURFACE BASED HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THINK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH BETTER CHANCES FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TOO EXCESSIVE BUT SOME
AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PWATS ARE
HIGHER. EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES.
WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID WEST WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING LATE. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MHX CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY WITH THE LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT COOLER...MAINLY INLAND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER
WITH MORE SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EDGE BACK TOWARD NORMAL
LEVELS FOR AUGUST...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. A CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE
TSTMS RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM SUN...AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING ALLOWING CIGS TO DROP
MVFR/IFR AT OAJ AND ISO FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT
CONTINUING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASINGLY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NE
SECTIONS TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS CLOSER THE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS POTENTIALLY BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE SOME LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...GIVEN
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY BISECTING SOUTH CAROLINA...WHILE WEAK LOW PRES
MOVES TO A POSITION SE OF CAPE FEAR. GENERALLY EXPECT EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THOUGH COULD SEE AROUND 15-20 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF ONSLOW BAY
CLOSER TO THE LOW. MODELS INDICTING 15-20 KT WINDS SPREADING
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT COVERING AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THOUGH COULD SEE
THEM BUILD UP TO 5 FT ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE
LOW MOVES SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT
E/SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS TO
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 FEET. LOCAL SWAN MODEL INDICATES A FEW SMALL
AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS...BUT WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS VEER
TO SOUTHWEST AS LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THEN BECOME
W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY TO MIDDAY PORTION OF WEDNESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...WINDS BECOME NORTH ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT THREAT IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY TODAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1055 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN A POTENT UPPER TROUGH RIDING
ABOVE THE LOW WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A DRY PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATES WERE GENERALLY FOCUSED ON NORTHERN KENTUCKY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH BROAD
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEAR OUR SOUTHERN CWA. LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI...BUT MORE EFFICIENT
RAINERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF LEXINGTON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BASED ON CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...BUT
MAINTAINED A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT WITH DRIER EASTERLY FLOW
FARTHER NORTH MUCH LIKE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THOUGH...AS HRRR TRIES TO PUSH SOME CONVECTION NORTHWARD BY THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GREAT AND WILL NOT BE AIDED BY
SURFACE HEATING EITHER...BUT ENOUGH TO RESUME THUNDERSTORM MENTION
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SLOW
MOVEMENTS...SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 TODAY IN THE FAR
SOUTH. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO...THE MID 80S WILL
BE EASILY ATTAINABLE...IF NOT A FEW CLICKS HIGHER IN A SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THE H5 RIDGE IS SHUNTED EWD AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS PRODUCES ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY THE H5 S/W SWINGS INTO THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES THE
FOCUS FOR A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. WENT LIKELY POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AS MONDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSES. ADDITIONAL H5 ENERGY DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY SHARPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. CONVECTION SHOULD
REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...WITH ALL LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EXITING
PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND 500-1000
HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECASTER LATTO SIGNING OFF
AT THE ILN CWA...IT HAS BEEN A FINE EXPERIENCE WORKING HERE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGH NOSING NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH CINCINNATI WILL PERMIT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM A HIGHER
BASE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OVER THE REGION BEYOND THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
LOWER CHANCES OF VFR RAIN AT ILN/DAY TODAY. THE CMH/LCK TAF SITES WILL
SEE A GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SOME
FAIR WX CU AT VARIOUS TIMES/LEVELS.
SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCY ARE PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION IN ABOUT 5-7 HOURS WHICH REMAINS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
TAFS THAT HAD AN 18Z TIME FOR VFR SHOWERS IN MVFR CIGS. THE
REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR A PASSING
SHOWER AFTER 0Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CMH/LCK WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN DRY IF NOT CLOUD-FREE. MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AT CVG/LUK AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY...ENDING EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX GRIDS TO SHOW THIS
AND MADE TWEAKS TO OTHER GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT
SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
AVIATION...
10/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING SO
SOUTHERLY/SWLY EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS AHEAD OF CURRENT
MODEL FORECASTS. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR MODEL FOR SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL OF CHOICE KEEPS STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND KSPS TERMINAL THIS EVENING. WILL REMOVE
TSRA FROM NW OK TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT KEEP MENTION OF PROB30
ELSEWHERE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS MCS
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TYPING. RADAR
DEPICTING TRAPPED WAVE /MULTIPLE BANDS/ STRUCTURE OF
OUTFLOW. NO WONDER THERE IS CURRENTLY A LACK OF ECHOES OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME BUT MAY DRIFT INTO OKC BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.
AS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MOVES OVER REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL LACKING
WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO WILL NOT GET
CARRIED AWAY WITH HIGH POPS. DRY WEATHER AND LESS HOT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING OCCURS
LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS WANT TO FLATTEN DOWN THIS RIDGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND TO VARYING DEGREES. MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW KEEPING POPS GOING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 72 91 69 / 30 40 20 10
HOBART OK 95 72 93 68 / 30 40 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 74 96 71 / 30 30 40 20
GAGE OK 92 67 89 64 / 20 30 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 90 70 89 65 / 20 20 10 10
DURANT OK 95 75 95 71 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.AVIATION...
10/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING SO
SOUTHERLY/SWLY EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS AHEAD OF CURRENT
MODEL FORECASTS. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HRRR MODEL FOR SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL OF CHOICE KEEPS STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND KSPS TERMINAL THIS EVENING. WILL REMOVE
TSRA FROM NW OK TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BUT KEEP MENTION OF PROB30
ELSEWHERE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS MCS
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TYPING. RADAR
DEPICTING TRAPPED WAVE /MULTIPLE BANDS/ STRUCTURE OF
OUTFLOW. NO WONDER THERE IS CURRENTLY A LACK OF ECHOES OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME BUT MAY DRIFT INTO OKC BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.
AS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MOVES OVER REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL LACKING
WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO WILL NOT GET
CARRIED AWAY WITH HIGH POPS. DRY WEATHER AND LESS HOT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING OCCURS
LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS WANT TO FLATTEN DOWN THIS RIDGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND TO VARYING DEGREES. MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW KEEPING POPS GOING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 72 91 69 / 40 40 20 10
HOBART OK 96 72 93 68 / 40 40 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 96 71 / 30 30 40 20
GAGE OK 93 67 89 64 / 40 30 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 91 70 89 65 / 50 20 10 10
DURANT OK 97 75 95 71 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/99/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO EXPAND HIGHER POPS
INTO HARRIS COUNTY. HIGH RES HRRR AND RAP INITIALIZED THE BEST
THIS MORNING AND ARE SHOWING COVERAGE CONTINUING TO EXPAND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAKES SENSE AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.00"
THIS MORNING AND A WEAK VORT LOBE REMAINS JUST EAST OF US IN
LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO A SHEAR AXIS AT 500 DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HELP TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING PW`S AROUND 2" ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH AID
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE. SIMILAR SET UP PROBABLE FOR
MONDAY.
BY LATE MON AFTN WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THRU N TX. MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST THIS
WILL ALSO TRIGGER PRECIP WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SE TX
MON NIGHT & TUE MORNING. THE FRONT/WINDSHIFT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL
ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX LATE TUE/WED.
DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.3") WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MON NIGHT-WED SO WILL NEED
TO BE ON LOOKOUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT (WHERE FRONT
WILL END UP STALLING ACROSS CWA, TIMING OF PRECIP PERIODS,
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, ETC, ETC). IN SIMILAR SET-UPS IN THE PAST, &
ABSENT MCS DEVELOPMENT, HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED WHERE FRONTAL
CONVECTION & SEABREEZE COLLIDE. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT SOME TIME PERIODS WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IF/WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE & TIMING
IMPROVES.
THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD WASHOUT LATE WED. AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
BUT WE`LL STILL BE SITUATED IN TAIL END OF ERN TROF/WEAKNESS SO
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH, THEY WON`T GO TO ZERO. 47
MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY WASH OUT BY MID WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FCST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD PRODUCE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. 41
AVIATION...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO/WIDELY SCT PCPN ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTN AS GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/
ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 77 98 77 96 / 20 20 30 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 97 77 95 / 40 20 30 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 83 92 83 92 / 30 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN BAND
OF WESTERLIES LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AND
NARROW BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LARGEST AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT ENERGY OVER THE CONUS BEING A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER/CLOSED LOW THAT WAS ILL-DEFINED OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY IS NOW A BIT MORE VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT SLIDES WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
FEATURE IS MOST DEFINED ABOVE 500MB...AND NWP GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED IN KEEPING THIS ENERGY ON A PROGRESSIVE WESTWARD TRACK INTO
THE SE GOMEX BY MONDAY. SOME DRIER AIR ON THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA...BUT WILL GENERALLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH/SE DURING THE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TODAY. SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THIS
DRIER AIR WILL COME FURTHER NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THE DEGREE
OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE FAVORABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPRESSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS
BY A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
CONFIGURATION IS SUPPLYING A 1000-700MB MEAN SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SW (MOST DEFINED NORTH OF TAMPA IN LESS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS).
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...
WELL...THIS HAS BEEN "ONE OF THOSE DAYS" IN TERMS OF KEEPING UP WITH
THE FORECAST. THE NWP SUITES FROM YESTERDAY THAT WERE SUGGESTING AN
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE BAND TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TODAY WERE OFF BY
A FEW HOURS ON INITIATION...BUT WERE CERTAINLY RIGHT THAT IT WOULD
DEVELOP. HAVE ENDED UP WITH QUITE A WET DAY/FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/CLOUDS HAVE PLAYED
HAVOC WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A
DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WAS
SUPPOSED TO HELP DISSIPATE THE CONVERGENCE BAND AND BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NATURE COAST AND TAMPA BAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THIS SUBSIDENCE/DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NON-EXISTENT SEA BREEZE...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CONTINUED
TO ROLL ONSHORE AND LOOK TO CONTINUE BEING A FORECAST ISSUE FOR A
FEW HOURS TO COME. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND HAS
SETTLED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO GET WETTER
INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE 275/I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE EXAMPLES WHERE JUST ONE VARIABLE NOT
COMING TOGETHER HAS MADE FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FORECAST THAT
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 12 HOURS AGO.
SO...THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST SCT/NMRS
SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESS IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTH. SO FAR...THERE
HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE SOUTH OF HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF MANATEE COUNTY ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK/LESSENING OF THE ACTION OVER THE NE GULF/NATURE
COAST FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTING WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED CONVERGENT BAND LATE TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NATURE COAST. THIS TIME...ALL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
ON BOARD...AND ALSO PIN THE BEST FOCUS A BIT FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS
CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY INTO THE BIG BEND. WHILE THESE AREA MAY BE
FAVORED FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING...WE COULD CERTAINLY
SEE A SCT OF SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR IF THE
SREF/ECMWF ARE ACCURATE. EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVERGENCE FOCUS...
WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL
BRING CHANCE POPS DOWN INTO PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
MONDAY...WILL NOT SAY THAT MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF
TODAY...BUT THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON IS CERTAINLY HIGHER TO THE SOUTH OF I-4...WHERE A
TYPICAL SW FLOW CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE LIGHTER TO
THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS...AND MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A FEEBLE LAND BREEZE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LAND BREEZE WOULD
LIKELY FORCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FROM
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IF THEY ARE PERSISTENT
AGAIN...THEN THE SEA-BREEZE WILL FAIL TO DEVELOP AND THE WET
CONDITIONS WILL VERY POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 18Z FROM BROOKSVILLE
NORTHWARD...WITH CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER. NOT A PATTERN THAT ALLOWS
FOR GETTING TO DETAILED EITHER SPATIAL OR TEMPORALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND DRIFT INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN TRANSITION INLAND AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS EXISTED ALL DAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF KTPA/KPIE/KLAL. THESE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY GET
INTO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BRIEF
VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WHICH HOPEFULLY WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE STEADIER SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE THE SCT
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY LOW. ANY GUSTIER FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT TIGHTER BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER THE GULF AND NEAR-SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHIFT INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. ONLY HAZARDS
WILL BE ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS...LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR INTO MONDAY...WITH MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OPEN FIELDS EACH MORNING...BUT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 92 78 92 / 20 30 20 20
FMY 76 94 77 94 / 10 20 20 20
GIF 76 94 76 94 / 20 40 10 30
SRQ 78 91 77 91 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 73 91 73 93 / 30 60 20 30
SPG 81 91 80 91 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1108 AM CDT
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS MORNING. ACCOUNTING FOR
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING INTO BENTON AND JASPER THAT
DID HAVE ONE ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE 10AM HOUR...HAVE
BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY/HIGH END CHC IN THAT AREA THROUGH MID DAY.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE/VORT NOTED
ON W/V IMAGERY PASSES OFF TO EAST. THEN THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BETTER FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN PRIMARILY SOUTHERN CWA. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ALSO KEYING ON
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AS LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND TO FOCUS A
BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND MINOR
WARMING DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL ENABLE WEAK INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED TSRA IN THE GRIDS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA...HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND. ELSEWHERE...850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT GOING HIGHS IN LOWER
80S...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...THOUGH SPOTS THAT SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE COULD REACH THE MID 80S.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BENIGN WEATHER HAS CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SPRAWLING SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS TRYING TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
TENN. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COOL THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A
RESULT FROM SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
THE MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.
A MID-LVL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
EAST TODAY...AND COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS APPEARS TO
BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 70S.
PRECIP SHUD STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
MID-LVLS SUGGESTIVE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO
HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STUBBORN SFC RIDGE FINALLY ERODES ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MID-LVL VORT
OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON.
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A WEAKER MID-LVL FEATURE WILL TRY TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MON. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND INCREASED MOISTURE THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN
THE AFTN/EVE MON HOURS. LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN MON
AFTN...HOWEVER THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MON
NGT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF GOOD FORCING MON SHUD LIMIT ANY
CONVECTION FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED. HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS ARND 80 OR
LOW 80S MON...ALTHOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
LIKELY TURNING NW BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS COULD END UP STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE 70S.
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST TUE...WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING RETURNING TO
THE REGION AND PROVIDING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TUE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF 7 TO 9 DEG
C. THIS COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP P-CLOUDY SKIES
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW 50S...POSSIBLY THE UPR 40S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RETURN TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC MID-LVL
BLOCK...WHICH INDICATES THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL
LOCK OVERHEAD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPROACHES SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
THE NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCK WILL DISSOLVE AND ALLOW THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO KICK EAST AND A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO ARRIVE FOR THE MID
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO ARND
80.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10-12KT THRU 00Z.
* CHANCE OF SHRA OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING.
* LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONE MINUTE DATA FROM ORD SHOWING 10-12KTS FOR THE PAST HOUR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREVAILING SPEEDS OF 10KTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THRU LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY OCCUR A LITTLE
BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS
SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN BACK NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY MORNING. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW IT
TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BETWEEN IKK AND GYY AND THESE WILL
DRIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. ADDED
VICINITY MENTION AT GYY BUT NO MENTION ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE/SHORT DURATION OF ANYTHING FURTHER NORTH.
A BIT STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS
OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE...ONLY INCLUDED PROB MENTION BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE A PERIOD OF PREVAILING SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE.
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
COMBINATION OF ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME
SATURATED WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIGHT FOG BUT PERHAPS LOWER CIGS
WILL BE MORE COMMON. ADDED MENTION OF LOW MVFR CLOUDS BUT ONLY
INCLUDED A CIG AT GYY. IF MVFR CIGS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
LIKELY SCATTER/LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM FOR LAKE BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA OVERNIGHT...LOW FOR TIMING/COVERAGE.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. CHANCE TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY WITH AFTERNOON SHIFT
TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE WITH LAKE BREEZE.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...TURNING WINDS NORTH AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG COOL WINDS OVER
RELATIVELY MILD WATER MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
20 TO 30 KT RANGE. BY WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RELAX AGAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Showers continue to drift west/northwest across parts of central
and southeast Illinois late this morning, associated with a
trough/shear axis that extends from just north of Lawrenceville to
near Macomb. Heaviest showers since sunrise have been northwest of
the Illinois River, with latest radar images showing the heavier
precipitation now across Stark County. HRRR shows the showers in
that area weakening this morning as the trough becomes more
diffuse, with the greater concentration during the afternoon still
expected closer to the Indiana border. Thunder threat should
mainly be this afternoon across the eastern CWA, as some breaks in
the cloud cover allow the atmosphere along the trough to
destabilize some.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A few features to keep an eye on during the next 24 hours with
respect to precipitation risk. The first is a wavy frontal boundary
extending from eastern KY/TN westward into the central plains. Also
of note is a weak trof extending northwest from a very weak surface
low over central KY into central Illinois. This trof/shear axis has
some depth to it, and has been associated with light rain/drizzle
across the forecast area overnight. Another frontal boundary,
oriented northeast to southwest, will slowly approach from the
northwest tonight.
The trof/shear axis across much of the forecast area should continue
to produce a risk of precipitation while it is around today, with a
maximum risk associated with peak diurnal heating. While the details
are unclear, will need to keep an eye on some potential enhancement
that may occur with a possible arrival of a MCV out of plains storm
complex. Then low rain chances will increase again from the west
late tonight with the approach of the front from the northwest.
Have trended forecast cloudier, as there is not a significant
mechanism to scour the clouds currently in the area out. As a
result, have also tweaked the high temperatures down a bit today in
light of the 70s that were seen in many areas yesterday beneath the
cloud cover, and the decent probability that this may occur again
today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
00Z forecast model suite continues to deepen a strong upper level
trof into the Great Lakes region Monday with surface low pressure
strengthening as it lifts NE into IN and SE lower MI Monday night
while bringing a frontal boundary east of IL by Monday evening. This
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to central and
especially eastern IL Monday and lingering chances near the IN
border til sunset. SPC keeps 5% risk of severe storms south and east
of IL. Highs in the lower 80s Monday with mid 80s near
Lawrenceville. Lows Monday night in the lower 60s, with mid 60s SE
of I-70.
Strong upper level trof over IL and Ohio river valley Tue while
surface low pressure deepens into southeast Ontario Canada. Best
chances of showers and thunderstorms shifts east of IL Tue, and just
have slight chances near the IN border. Highs in the upper 70s Tue
with lower 80s by Lawrenceville. Cooler and less humid air filters
during Tue and Tue night with lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s.
Dry conditions prevail from Tue night through Thu night as weak
Canadian high pressure around 1020 mb settles into the region Wed
night and Thu. Below normal highs of 75-80F again on Wed and around
80F Thu. Lows Wed night in the upper 50s to near 60F and around 60F
Thu night.
IL gets into a WNW flow aloft late this week with more unsettled
weather pattern evolving Friday into next weekend. Surface high
pressure ridge shifts east of IL by Friday with return southerly
flow by next weekend bringing temps and humidity levels back up.
ECMWF model is slower bringing in next weather system and now keeps
much of central/SE IL dry on Friday while bringing QPF into area Fri
night and Saturday and dry again on Sunday and very warm & humid.
GFS has a wetter solution in extended forecast with qpf overnight
Thu night through Sunday. GEM is dry on Thu night and Friday which
better matches ECMWF model and tended to lean in this direction.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Still some lingering MVFR ceilings near KSPI/KCMI at midday,
although these should be lifting soon. Showers are currently
clear of the TAF sites, but high-resolution model guidance
indicates some development this afternoon as a weak boundary
remains in place over the area. Indeed, some development is now
taking place between KMTO and KHUF, and is lifting slowly
northwest toward KCMI. The afternoon showers should fade out some
with sunset, but additional showers may form overnight as an upper
wave enters Illinois. More widespread shower and thunderstorm
development expected Monday morning with this feature. Have
maintained the MVFR visibilities overnight, with SREF probability
guidance indicating the KSPI-KCMI corridor most likely to see
these lower visibilities.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1108 AM CDT
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS MORNING. ACCOUNTING FOR
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING INTO BENTON AND JASPER THAT
DID HAVE ONE ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE 10AM HOUR...HAVE
BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY/HIGH END CHC IN THAT AREA THROUGH MID DAY.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE/VORT NOTED
ON W/V IMAGERY PASSES OFF TO EAST. THEN THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BETTER FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN PRIMARILY SOUTHERN CWA. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ALSO KEYING ON
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AS LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND TO FOCUS A
BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND MINOR
WARMING DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL ENABLE WEAK INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED TSRA IN THE GRIDS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA...HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND. ELSEWHERE...850/925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT GOING HIGHS IN LOWER
80S...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...THOUGH SPOTS THAT SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE COULD REACH THE MID 80S.
RC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BENIGN WEATHER HAS CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SPRAWLING SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS TRYING TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
TENN. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COOL THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A
RESULT FROM SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
THE MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.
A MID-LVL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
EAST TODAY...AND COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS APPEARS TO
BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 70S.
PRECIP SHUD STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
MID-LVLS SUGGESTIVE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO
HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STUBBORN SFC RIDGE FINALLY ERODES ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MID-LVL VORT
OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON.
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A WEAKER MID-LVL FEATURE WILL TRY TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MON. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND INCREASED MOISTURE THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN
THE AFTN/EVE MON HOURS. LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN MON
AFTN...HOWEVER THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MON
NGT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF GOOD FORCING MON SHUD LIMIT ANY
CONVECTION FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED. HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS ARND 80 OR
LOW 80S MON...ALTHOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
LIKELY TURNING NW BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS COULD END UP STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE 70S.
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST TUE...WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING RETURNING TO
THE REGION AND PROVIDING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TUE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF 7 TO 9 DEG
C. THIS COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP P-CLOUDY SKIES
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW 50S...POSSIBLY THE UPR 40S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RETURN TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC MID-LVL
BLOCK...WHICH INDICATES THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SFC RIDGE WILL
LOCK OVERHEAD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPROACHES SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
THE NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCK WILL DISSOLVE AND ALLOW THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO KICK EAST AND A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO ARRIVE FOR THE MID
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO ARND
80.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10KT THRU EVENING.
* POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG/MVFR VIS MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
SUNSET. SPEEDS ON THE ONE MINUTE DATA AT ORD HAVE BEEN 9KTS FOR
THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO AND EXPECT PREVAILING SPEEDS AT ORD AND
MDW AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CMS
PREVIOUS 14Z DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF IKK CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
AND HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS.
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH AS REPORTED AT
IGQ IN THE PAST HOUR. BUT NO MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH EXPECTED
ISOLATED COVERAGE/SHORT DURATION OF ANYTHING THAT DOES DRIFT
FURTHER NORTH. CMS
PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION...
BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH AND A DEEPENING LOW TO
THE SOUTH...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
TODAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW AROUND
THE LOW ALSO COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION AND IMPACT REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION
IN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT THE LOW BEGINS LIFTING FROM INDIANA INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME VERY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...TURNING NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR LIGHT FOG MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. CHANCE TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY WITH AFTERNOON SHIFT
TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLE WITH LAKE BREEZE.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...TURNING WINDS NORTH AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG COOL WINDS OVER
RELATIVELY MILD WATER MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
20 TO 30 KT RANGE. BY WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RELAX AGAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
950 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Showers continue to drift west/northwest across parts of central
and southeast Illinois late this morning, associated with a
trough/shear axis that extends from just north of Lawrenceville to
near Macomb. Heaviest showers since sunrise have been northwest of
the Illinois River, with latest radar images showing the heavier
precipitation now across Stark County. HRRR shows the showers in
that area weakening this morning as the trough becomes more
diffuse, with the greater concentration during the afternoon still
expected closer to the Indiana border. Thunder threat should
mainly be this afternoon across the eastern CWA, as some breaks in
the cloud cover allow the atmosphere along the trough to
destabilize some.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A few features to keep an eye on during the next 24 hours with
respect to precipitation risk. The first is a wavy frontal boundary
extending from eastern KY/TN westward into the central plains. Also
of note is a weak trof extending northwest from a very weak surface
low over central KY into central Illinois. This trof/shear axis has
some depth to it, and has been associated with light rain/drizzle
across the forecast area overnight. Another frontal boundary,
oriented northeast to southwest, will slowly approach from the
northwest tonight.
The trof/shear axis across much of the forecast area should continue
to produce a risk of precipitation while it is around today, with a
maximum risk associated with peak diurnal heating. While the details
are unclear, will need to keep an eye on some potential enhancement
that may occur with a possible arrival of a MCV out of plains storm
complex. Then low rain chances will increase again from the west
late tonight with the approach of the front from the northwest.
Have trended forecast cloudier, as there is not a significant
mechanism to scour the clouds currently in the area out. As a
result, have also tweaked the high temperatures down a bit today in
light of the 70s that were seen in many areas yesterday beneath the
cloud cover, and the decent probability that this may occur again
today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
00Z forecast model suite continues to deepen a strong upper level
trof into the Great Lakes region Monday with surface low pressure
strengthening as it lifts NE into IN and SE lower MI Monday night
while bringing a frontal boundary east of IL by Monday evening. This
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to central and
especially eastern IL Monday and lingering chances near the IN
border til sunset. SPC keeps 5% risk of severe storms south and east
of IL. Highs in the lower 80s Monday with mid 80s near
Lawrenceville. Lows Monday night in the lower 60s, with mid 60s SE
of I-70.
Strong upper level trof over IL and Ohio river valley Tue while
surface low pressure deepens into southeast Ontario Canada. Best
chances of showers and thunderstorms shifts east of IL Tue, and just
have slight chances near the IN border. Highs in the upper 70s Tue
with lower 80s by Lawrenceville. Cooler and less humid air filters
during Tue and Tue night with lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s.
Dry conditions prevail from Tue night through Thu night as weak
Canadian high pressure around 1020 mb settles into the region Wed
night and Thu. Below normal highs of 75-80F again on Wed and around
80F Thu. Lows Wed night in the upper 50s to near 60F and around 60F
Thu night.
IL gets into a WNW flow aloft late this week with more unsettled
weather pattern evolving Friday into next weekend. Surface high
pressure ridge shifts east of IL by Friday with return southerly
flow by next weekend bringing temps and humidity levels back up.
ECMWF model is slower bringing in next weather system and now keeps
much of central/SE IL dry on Friday while bringing QPF into area Fri
night and Saturday and dry again on Sunday and very warm & humid.
GFS has a wetter solution in extended forecast with qpf overnight
Thu night through Sunday. GEM is dry on Thu night and Friday which
better matches ECMWF model and tended to lean in this direction.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Patchy MVFR conditions to start the day across the central
Illinois, along with isolated showers. Expect VFR conditions to
prevail by midday, with slightly greater coverage of showers and
storms. However, do not have high enough confidence at any one
terminal to go above VCSH mention at this time.
Loss of diurnal heating will reduce precipitation coverage or
bring it to an end for a time tonight. Thinner cloud cover tonight
is apt to allow MVFR fog to develop overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THUS THE SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THERE ARE NOW QUESTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND TRENDS
WITH THE RAP HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR KOWB WITH DIFFUSE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND WEST FROM IT. ACROSS THE PLAINS
THERE WERE NUMEROUS WEAK CONVECTIVE INDUCED LOWS AND HIGHS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE PUSHING INTO THE
FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. THESE SPRINKLES/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING
AS THE FORCING ACROSS ILLINOIS MOVES EAST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN BE SEEN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THAT
SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI AND
GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY INTERCEPT
THE WEAK INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY KEEP THE
AREA DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINLY
BECAUSE GFS IS TOO WET.
ON MONDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS MAIN PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS IA AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. THUS DRY FORECAST IN STORE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EARLY THURSDAY...WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO AREA. UPPER FORCING LAGS
BEHIND...NOT AFFECTING THE CWFA UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF DEPICTS A WARM FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...THUS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 11/18Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE IN MISSOURI PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. ANY CIGS WILL BE AOA 4K AGL AND MOSTLY AOA 10K AGL INTO
LATE MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SLOWLY SHIFT AND FAVOR THE NORTH AT LESS THAN 5 KTS BY DAYBREAK.
APPROACHING COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE MORNING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AND HAVE INCLUDED IN TERMINALS AS VICINITY WORDING FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO CLARIFY TIMING AND COVERAGE AS NW WINDS INCREASE BY MID DAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
110 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MINOR UPDATE TO SKY/POP/WX TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
UPSTREAM TRENDS AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT. STILL NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE OVER OUR CWA DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY...AND
BETTER UP-STREAM COVERAGE LIKELY TO MISS OUR CWA BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS 20 PERCENT...AND ONLY ADJUSTED
TIMING TO ADD MENTION FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH H5 RIDGE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE WESTERN US...WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER THE
PLAINS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVE OVER THE CWA
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED EASTWARD WITH A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA WEAKENING THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...HOWEVER WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE IN PLACE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY FURTHER
SOUTH...I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOG/STRATUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BL WINDS INCREASING AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND DESPITE THESE WINDS
LIKELY NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. I LEFT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST SW OF THE CWA. TQ INDEX AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE BOTH
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO ACT AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SEVERE PARAMETERS (ESPECIALLY SHEER) ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SIGNAL IN
MOST GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK HEATING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...AND IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN WESTERLY
0-6KM WINDS MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY EAST INTO OUR CWA BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IN COLORADO STORM TRACKS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO BRING ACTIVITY INTO
OUR CWA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (POSSIBLY
EVEN THE LOWER 80S AT A FEW LOCATIONS). WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM UNDER THE RIDGE AS CIN ERODES IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO
WHERE STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MIGRATING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME
BREEZY NORTH WIND THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MINOR UPDATE TO SKY/POP/WX TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
UPSTREAM TRENDS AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT. STILL NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE OVER OUR CWA DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY...AND
BETTER UP-STREAM COVERAGE LIKELY TO MISS OUR CWA BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS 20 PERCENT...AND ONLY ADJUSTED
TIMING TO ADD MENTION FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH H5 RIDGE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE WESTERN US...WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER THE
PLAINS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVE OVER THE CWA
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED EASTWARD WITH A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA WEAKENING THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...HOWEVER WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE IN PLACE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY FURTHER
SOUTH...I DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOG/STRATUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BL WINDS INCREASING AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND DESPITE THESE WINDS
LIKELY NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. I LEFT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING
LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST SW OF THE CWA. TQ INDEX AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE BOTH
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO ACT AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SEVERE PARAMETERS (ESPECIALLY SHEER) ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SIGNAL IN
MOST GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK HEATING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...AND IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN WESTERLY
0-6KM WINDS MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY EAST INTO OUR CWA BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP
IN COLORADO STORM TRACKS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO BRING ACTIVITY INTO
OUR CWA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (POSSIBLY
EVEN THE LOWER 80S AT A FEW LOCATIONS). WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE
H5 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WITH ECMWF/GEM
FLATTENING RIDGE MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS OR GEFS DATA. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY LOW AS WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THIS AND THINK KEEPING
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST MOST PRUDENT THING TO DO AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME
BREEZY NORTH WIND THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO FEATURE 1022+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, PW
VALUE WHICH ARE LARGELY AOB 1.5" (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW
ZONES) AND STRONG MID LEVEL CAP (SUBSIDENCE ALOFT)...HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR MOST OF PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. DID HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHC
(20-30% POP) THIS AFTERNOON OVER SAME SPOTS IN THE SW CWA WHERE
ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY THIS AFTN, BUT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF POSSIBLE WHERE A SHRA POPS UP. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS STILL PICKING UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON...PLACING LIGHT MODEL QPF FROM THE
PENINSULA NWD TO THE NRN NECK. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE/DRY LOW
LEVELS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY QUICK SHOWERS
WOULD BE VERY LOW AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL VA NEWD
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE SW AS CU BEGINS TO
FILL IN EARLY THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA OVER TO THE EASTERN SHORE,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS SEWD OVER THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDWEST...PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NERN CONUS AND MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OFFSHORE...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE SE STATES. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SC. SFC LOW WEST OF THE REGION BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD MON AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 HIGH ALSO PUSHES
OFFSHORE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN SELY FLOW FROM THE GULF
STREAM. EXPECT TWO AREAS OF PRECIP MON...THE FIRST LIFTING OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE SECOND OVER THE CAROLINAS. WHILE MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK
OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY WIN OUT OVER
CENTRAL VA NEWD TO THE ERN SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON THE WRN
AND SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE OH VALLEY MON NIGHT-TUES AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY TUES. AMPLIFYING
FLOW WILL LIFT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NWD AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE WARM SEASON WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT AS THE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE SCT SHOWERS BEGINNING MON
NIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TUES. THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL
PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MLCAPE VALUES AOB 1K J/KG)
FOR EMBEDDED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR REMAINS
UNIMPRESSIVE...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS
THE REGION IN GENERAL THUNDER. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM...RUNNING 1-2 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S SE (STILL IN
THE WEDGE) TO LOW 80S NE. HIGHS TUES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-50%) EVERYWHERE TUESDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING TO 20-30% POPS EAST OF I-95 WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY
ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF BY THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD 80-85.
LOWS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT WED AND THURS NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4-5K FT CU FILED DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. MAINLY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE SE US. PATCHY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST
AND WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z MON.
OUTLOOK...PATTERN TURNS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED MON/TUE AS FLOW TURNS
TO THE SE AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT/WED WITH VFR/DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOW TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENLY 5-10
KT OVER THE BAY/RIVERS TO AROUND 10 KT OFFSHORE. AS A SECONDARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS A BIT OFF THE SE COAST ON MON...ALLOWING
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT LATE MON/TUE. WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING LOCKED IN PLACE...THE RESULT WILL BE FOR
BUILDING SEAS. HAVE 2-3 FT SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...THEN
INCREASING TO 4-6 FT MON NIGHT/TUE. 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE MON-TUE (POSSIBLY TO 3-4 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY). SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES LATE MON INTO TUE.
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN LATE TUE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES THE AREA ON WED. SEAS FORECAST
TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT/WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TIDAL ANOMALIES FROM ABOUT 0.5 FT TODAY TO UPWARDS OF
1 FOOT MON/TUE. COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO A
FULL MOON AND HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING MON/TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
653 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TO THE PAC NW AND A TROUGH FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MN AHEAD OF A
FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO INTO WRN MN SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM
N CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. OTHERWISE...JUST DIURNAL CU PREVAILED ACROSS
UPPER MI AS WEAK SRLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASED.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A 100 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAK DIVES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT THE SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA TO ADVANCE STEADILY TO THE EAST WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WRN
THIRD INCREASING AFT 06Z.
MON...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV AND
FGEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES OR 150 PCT
OR NORMAL) WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 100-400 J/KG WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
SUGGESTS MAINLY ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR DROP OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOW SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECT THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL (LIKELY POPS) THERE ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EAST
(MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING/MANISTIQUE) BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS OVER THOSE EAST AREAS IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SLOWLY END THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THINK THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY START SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL CWA WILL LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MONRING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/-RA BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO THE 15-25KT RANGE. THESE
GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL
LEAD TO A VERY FALL LIKE START TO TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.P.
FINALLY FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR
MARQUETTE AND ESPECIALLY ALGER COUNTY AND WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE
HWO.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LOW BRIEFLY CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE WAVES
TO STAY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND EXPECT THE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR (ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR). HIGHS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
70S...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A LITTLE LATER ARRIVAL
THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS ON. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
RANGE BY MON MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT CMX/IWD
MON MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AND GUST TO MORE THAN
20 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...PRODUCING WAVES UP TO 7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15 KT BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TO THE PAC NW AND A TROUGH FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MN AHEAD OF A
FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO INTO WRN MN SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM
N CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. OTHERWISE...JUST DIURNAL CU PREVAILED ACROSS
UPPER MI AS WEAK SRLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASED.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A 100 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAK DIVES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT THE SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA TO ADVANCE STEADILY TO THE EAST WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WRN
THIRD INCREASING AFT 06Z.
MON...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV AND
FGEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES OR 150 PCT
OR NORMAL) WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 100-400 J/KG WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
SUGGESTS MAINLY ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR DROP OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOW SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECT THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL (LIKELY POPS) THERE ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE EAST
(MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING/MANISTIQUE) BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS OVER THOSE EAST AREAS IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SLOWLY END THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THINK THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY START SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL CWA WILL LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MONRING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/-RA BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO THE 15-25KT RANGE. THESE
GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL
LEAD TO A VERY FALL LIKE START TO TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.P.
FINALLY FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR
MARQUETTE AND ESPECIALLY ALGER COUNTY AND WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE
HWO.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LOW BRIEFLY CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE WAVES
TO STAY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND EXPECT THE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR (ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR). HIGHS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
70S...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A LITTLE LATER ARRIVAL
THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS ON. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING AREAS
OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY LOWER CONDITIONS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AT CMX AND IWD. WITH ONLY A LOW
PROBABILITY OF TS...NO MENTION WAS ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT CMX/IWD. AT SAW...RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AND GUST TO MORE THAN
20 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...PRODUCING WAVES UP TO 7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15 KT BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH A
STRONG WAVE ENTERING WRN HUDSON BAY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LOW EXTENDS SOUTH INTO NRN MO. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE AREA A
COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS...A WEAKENING ONE OVER CENTRAL MN THAT BROUGHT
THE HEAVY RAINS TO WRN MN LAST NIGHT WITH AN MCV DOWN OVER CENTRAL
IA. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOW A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL MN UNDER THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW. AT 2 PM...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM
THE LOW THROUGH LITCHFIELD...WINDOM...AND INTO NW IA. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
MPX AREA WITH THE CENTRAL MN UPPER LOW AND WELL SOUTH OF MN/WI WITH
THE MCV. WE HAVE SEEN AN UNCAPPED 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS ACROSS MN. HRRR AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF
HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THINGS TODAY...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS
FOR TRACKING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RESULTED IN
SLOWING THE EWRD PROGRESSION OF POPS INTO WI...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS
ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE SEEN DEWPS OUT EAST DROP INTO THE MID 50S...DRY
AIR OUT THERE HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO LEAVE INDEED. BESIDE SLOWING
THE PROGRESSION OF POPS TO THE EAST...ALSO DECREASED POPS OVER WI
OVERNIGHT...AS SHOWERS REALLY LOOK TO LOOSE THEIR DEFINITION AFTER
SUNSET...WITH BEST FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOWS GOING INTO NRN WI AND
NRN IL OVERNIGHT. ALSO RESTRICTED POPS TO JUST WRN WI FOR MONDAY AND
HELD THEM INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WELL...AS UPPER WAVE DROPPING
DOWN OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT HEADS FOR CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...BEST MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE MPX AREA...WITH
CURRENT REDUCED POPS POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT OVERDONE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BESIDE BABYSITTING THE PRECIP ACROSS ERN AREAS TONIGHT...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WRN MN. WE SAW A GOOD SWATH
OF 1-4+ INCHES OF RAIN OUT THERE OVERNIGHT AND AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS CLEARING
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING DEWPOINTS AND FAIRLY
PERSISTENT LIGHT NW WINDS. LEFT FOG OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW THINKING
THESE NW WINDS WOULD KEEP THE ATMO MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING...BUT THEY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN.
FOR MONDAY...OTHER THAN THE THREAT FOR SOME ISO/SCT STORMS OVER WRN
WI IN THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER STELLAR SUMMER DAY AS
SKIES CLEAR OUT...TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S...ALL TOPPED OFF WITH A FRESH NNW WIND THAT WILL BE
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL WARM
MOIST AIR RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEAN TIME EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
FROM A BROAD BRUSHED PERSPECTIVE...IN ORDER TO MAKE A CONFIDENT
FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WARM SEASON YOU NEED EITHER LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN THE FORM OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...OR MORE COMMONLY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS NEITHER MN NOR WI
HAVE HAD EITHER...AND AS A RESULT THE WEATHER HAS BEEN NOTICEABLY
DRY.
A 36HR LOOP OF NORTH AMERICAN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TOGETHER WITH
GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK SITUATED
TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE RECURRING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES OWING TO UPSLOPE FLOW. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSED...THE
CONVECTION DRIFTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES OF NE AND KS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN MN DID PICK UP HEALTHY RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24HRS...THE COVERAGE WAS LIMITED TO A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...SIMILAR TO THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
IN WESTERN WI THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER MCS WILL TRICKLE DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND...EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. IF THIS MODEL
SOLUTION PANS OUT HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE
REGION WOULD PICK UP MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT CONSIDERING THE 12Z ECMWF FOCUSES
THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
WE START THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A SFC
LOW NEAR LONG PRAIRIE SOUTH TO BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS AND NEW ULM.
SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWED FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO GET THE SCT LINE OF SHOWERS
THAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. THIS LINE OF SHRA AND EVENTUALLY TSRA WILL
SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AFTER 21Z.
THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE ACTIVITY TODAY...AND
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW IT FOR TIMING -SHRA AT TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS NOT
MUCH LOOKS TO BE LEFT BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REACH
EAU...SO LEFT THAT TAF DRY. TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARD DLH.
BASED MVFR CIGS IN TAFS ON A NAM/RAP BLEND...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EXTENSIVE THESE MVFR CIGS WILL
BE. FINALLY...BEHIND THE FRONT...NAM SOUNDINGS CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING GUSTY NNW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE MIXING KICKS IN.
KMSP...CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEST OF
THE CITIES...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SCT SHRA/TSRA BEING WITHIN
THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WE DO SEE ANY...THEY
SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT OF HERE BY 12Z. AFTER THAT...SKIES MONDAY
WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NNW GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
114 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE AND SFC OBS ALL INDICATED THAT A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE N/NE ACROSS WC MN...WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SPINNING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND IT. SOME AREAS
ACROSS WC MN HAD OVER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED SINCE
MIDNIGHT...THAT HAS BEEN A STRENGTHENING TREND OF SOME OF THE
RETURNS ACROSS SE SD WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SW/WC MN THRU
SUNRISE.
HOW FAR EASTWARD THE HEAVIER SHRA MOVE THRU NOON TODAY REMAINS THE
BIG QUESTION BASED ON VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ANOTHER STRONGER WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IA/MO/KS...TAKING SOME OF
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS EARLY MORNINGS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHRA/TSRA SEEM TO
REGENERATE NEAR THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN THRU NOON. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WC WI...CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL THE MAIN SHRTWV AND SFC FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WITH PWATS VERY HIGH AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION...HAVE
LEAN TOWARD HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREAT TODAY/TONIGHT. SHEAR
VALUES AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LIMIT THE SVR WX THREAT.
AS THE MAIN SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH AND THE SFC FRONT MOVES EAST OF MPX
CWA...THE CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE THE REFLECTION OF MORE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA IN THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
OVERALL WE/LL SEE THINGS SHIFT FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY... THEN WARM
ADVECTION AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THEIR PROGRESSION OF
FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK IN COMPARISON TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW
IN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SUBSEQUENT RUNS SLOW THINGS FURTHER. SLOWED/REDUCED POPS IN THE
LATER PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
AND TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.
WE/LL PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
SUFFICIENT RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN AND TO ANY LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS WE SIT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
SETUP ON THURSDAY... BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT WE/LL SEE TOO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT UNTIL SATURDAY.
INTRODUCED SOME POPS INTO THE WEST/SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
BUT KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT FINALLY
APPEARS THAT WE/LL SEE MORE ROBUST WARM ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
WE START THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A SFC
LOW NEAR LONG PRAIRIE SOUTH TO BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS AND NEW ULM.
SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWED FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO GET THE SCT LINE OF SHOWERS
THAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. THIS LINE OF SHRA AND EVENTUALLY TSRA WILL
SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AFTER 21Z.
THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE ACTIVITY TODAY...AND
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW IT FOR TIMING -SHRA AT TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS NOT
MUCH LOOKS TO BE LEFT BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REACH
EAU...SO LEFT THAT TAF DRY. TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARD DLH.
BASED MVFR CIGS IN TAFS ON A NAM/RAP BLEND...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EXTENSIVE THESE MVFR CIGS WILL
BE. FINALLY...BEHIND THE FRONT...NAM SOUNDINGS CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING GUSTY NNW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE MIXING KICKS IN.
KMSP...CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEST OF
THE CITIES...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SCT SHRA/TSRA BEING WITHIN
THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WE DO SEE ANY...THEY
SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT OF HERE BY 12Z. AFTER THAT...SKIES MONDAY
WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NNW GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
Warm and humid conditions are in place across the region this
afternoon. Starting to see an uptick in convection during the
past hour, particularly across central Missouri. This is in
response to destabilization due to daytime heating and upper level
energy rotating around an area of low pressure located near Kansas
City. Water vapor imagery and RAP initializations of mid level
vorticity indicate multiple lobes of vorticity emanating from this
upper low. As a result, we should continue to see a gradual
increase in showers and storms across much of the Missouri Ozarks
heading into this evening. The aforementioned upper low and a cold
front moving into the region from the northwest will maintain
scattered showers and storms across the region into much of
tonight. Overnight the better rain chances should begin to shift
to the southeast and east.
High PW air in place (around 1.9" according to the SPC
mesoanalysis page) will result in locally heavy rainfall with this
activity. Deep layer shear remains on the weak side, around 25-30
kt, while both surface based and mixed layer CAPE values are
nearing 3000 J/kg. This should result in a mainly multicell
convective mode with an isolated risk for wet microbursts.
The cold front will exit to the east/southeast on Monday with rain
chances ending during the morning hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A nice stretch of weather is expected across the area from Monday
night through Thursday as large area of Canadian surface high
pressure dominates our weather regime. Temperatures will some 7 to
10 degrees below average with comfortable humidity levels.
Temperatures and humidity will rebound back to typical mid-August
values late this week through next weekend as the upper level
pattern flattens a bit. Upper level ridging will attempt to build
into the region from the southwest, meanwhile energy in the
northern stream will threaten to enter from the northwest. Day to
day continuity from individual medium range models have been
lacking (one run wet, the next run dry), however the consensus
suggests that the door will be open to mesoscale convective
systems (MCS) entering from the northwest. As a result, have
continued low end chance PoPs from Friday through the weekend
until finer scale details can be resolved.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
A generally low confidence forecast for the terminals this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west
of JLN early to mid afternoon, and move and develop to the east and
southeast with time. Gusty winds and a drop to IFR can be expected
should a storm move over a terminal. Outside of TSRA, VFR
conditions will prevail. Some light fog and/or stratus development
is then expected late tonight, with conditions dropping at least
to MVFR, with some possibility of IFR. Improving conditions are
then expected tomorrow morning as drier air begins to move into
the region from the north.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AT TIMES DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A SATURATED AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION...THE RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
BLOSSOM OVER SC COASTAL COUNTIES. HI RESOLUTION HRRR AND RUC
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME OF THESE AREAS FOR CONTINUED RAIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IN SOME CASES EVEN THROUGH SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW. HAVE
ALSO CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NC COAST AS WELL
MANY PLACES WERE HIT HARD ENOUGH YESTERDAY TO STILL BE VERY
SENSITIVE TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AND WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE WET WEATHER SOUTH THE RUC AND HRRR
ALSO SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THESE LOCALES LATER ON. GIVEN THAT
A DECENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE JUST BY TO OUR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE A LOW CLOSE TO
70...SAVE FOR IN PLACES WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS PREVENT A FURTHER
DROP...AND SOME OF THESE PLACES MAY NEED TO HAVE FCST RAISED A BIT.
LAST NIGHT THERE WAS SOME VERY ISOLATED FOG DESPITE LOW CLOUDS AND A
LITTLE WIND. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE BEING IN ANY FORECASTS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE BOUNDARIES AND PASSING WEAK
IMPULSES ALOFT...WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE TREND RECENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE LACK OF MID LEVEL PUSH ENDS UP
STALLING THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST WED. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRYING/HEATING AND
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MID
LEVEL DRYING WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED TO CHC AT BEST WITH SLIGHT
CHC PROBABLE FARTHER INLAND.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. WEAK FLAT
5H TROUGH AND LACK OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE A SHARP CONTRAST BETWEEN DEEP MOISTURE AND VERY DRY MID
LEVELS. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT
COMPLICATE POSITIONING THE BOUNDARY ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS. FOR NOW
WILL CARRY A FORECAST WITH A DIURNAL SILENT POP FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED BUT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT ANY OF THESE DAYS COULD END UP WET
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE
DEEP MOISTURE. IF THE FRONT STAYS OFF THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL
END UP NEAR CLIMO. ANY DAY WHERE THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST
HIGHS COULD RUN NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO WHILE LOWS RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS AT KFLO. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IT WAS
VFR/TEMPO MVFR WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. MOST OF THE SHRA IS
LIGHT...EXCEPT THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MDT-HVY RAINFALL. NO
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BEING DETECTED.
AT KLBT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
VFR CIGS AT KLBT. AT KFLO CIGS/VSBYS COULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY TEMPO IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TEMPO MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT BRIEF
IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE NEAR KILM MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING TO THE KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD
DISSIPATE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH IFR VSBYS/TEMPO LIFR CIGS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MONDAY
MORNING THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAKE A LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY UNCHANGED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT
PINCH IN THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
EXTEND A LITTLE INTO NEW HANOVER CTY WATERS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3
FT...HIGHEST NORTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF
2 TO 3 FT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING 3 TO
4 FT TUESDAY WITH A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU AND FRI AS FRONT STALLS
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT WILL
KEEP FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BUT WEAK GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD SURGE
EARLY THU COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SEA BREEZE THU
AND FRI AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST MAY CREEP TO 10 TO 15 KT
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THU AND FRI DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM SUNDAY...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING HIGH SURF
RUN-UP ON AREA BEACHES WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE IN THE MID EVENING.
WITH A SLIGHT LAG-TIME THIS WILL ALSO BRING FLOODING TO PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON
AREA. FOR THIS REASON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
TIDAL DECLINES ARE PREDICTED MONDAY ONWARD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...TRL
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG AND
NEAR AN 850MB BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NOSED IN
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES AT
KIXA...FOR EXAMPLE...HAD RISEN CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CONTINUED EXPECTATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ENOUGH CLEARING NORTHEAST
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THREE HOURS...AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY LIE OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA...POSSIBLY WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER IF THE HRRR WRF VERIFIES. HOWEVER...IN
SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WAS LIGHT COMPARED TO
OTHERS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. COORDINATED WITH CAE AND ILM AND
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO RETURN ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY
WEST TO EAST. IN THE DRIER AIR...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE RAP SHOWS A DEFINITE MINIMA OF 850MB THETA-E.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD...IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THE SFC WAVE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BUT GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CHALLENGES...CONFIDENCE ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
FORECAST WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS BUT LIGHT QPF. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY... A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ALONG THE STATIONARY/WEDGE FRONT OVER SC
EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME OF THE CAD AIRMASS TO LINGER INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOWS. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PRIMARY LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRYING AT
700MB...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE CAD EROSION. WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER SPEED MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDENT
WITH THE WARM SECTOR MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN NC. THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL SHOW A 40 POP OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDING DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...AND
PREFER NAM/ECMWF BASED GUIDANCE OVER THE GFS WHICH LOOKS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAD EROSION. A GUIDANCE BLEND YIELDS 80-85
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALOFT...A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW...ALBEIT STILL CYCLONIC AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PW DOWN TO AROUND
ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREEPING BACK
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 80S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY OVER THE TRIAD AND THE SANDHILLS...WITH IMPROVEMENT
NOTED ELSEWHERE AND PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
NORTHEASDT WHERE THERE WERE MANY AREAS OF VFR CONDITIONS. THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED. IN THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...IT MAY BE MOST DIFFICULT FOR THE TRIAD TAFS
TO SHOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MAYBE MVFR...BUT IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS ANTICIPATE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BEFORE A
RETURN TO LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHER CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DRIER AIR TOWARD KRWI...BUT EVEN
THERE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1
TONIGHT WITH...AGAIN...HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE TRIAD. ON TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...WITH ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINANTLY VFR
WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUPY AIR ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ALREADY WET GROUND...WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY...FANNING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES JUST YET...BUT AM DEBATING SOME.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IT WOULD SEEM THAT
RAINFALL IS NOW GOING TO GRAVITATE TOWARDS SC ZONES DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THIS BODES WELL FOR OUR FLOOD-WEARY NC ZONES
ESPECIALLY PENDER COUNTY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOOD
DAMAGE AND THE HEIGHTENED SENSITIVITY TO ANY ADDITIONAL WATER IN
SOME OF THOSE AREAS WILL WAIT A BIT LONGER AND MAKE DARN SURE THAT
THOSE AREAS ARE NOT GOING TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL. BUT AGAIN FOR NOW THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WELL TO OUR
SOUTH HAS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAXED OVER FAR SRN ZONES...WITH
MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000 RANGE...BUT RUC ALSO INDICATIVE THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY CAPPED EVEN TO LAYER MIXING. SO ONCE AGAIN
WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AS A PRECAUTION BUT NRN
ZONES WILL HAVE POPS LOWERED A BIT AND QPF EVEN MORESO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY AND AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SINCE LOCAL GROUNDS ARE SOGGY. THE PRESENCE OF
A PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED POP VALUES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY COMPARED TO NORMAL SUMMER STANDARDS. OTHER THAN
THE THREAT OF FLOODING...NO OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS STAND
OUT AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THIS PERIOD WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW 80S AND POSSIBLE MIDDLE 80S
TUESDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY STILL IN THE MIX. MINS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY HELD IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM SATURDAY...A TRANSITION PERIOD AS WESTERLY FLOW AND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
AUGUST TO THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS A WIND-SHIFT TO THE
NORTH N-NNE LOOKS TO OCCUR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AND PERHAPS CLEARING VERY NE SC AND THE WINYAH BAY REGION
SUNRISE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES GREATLY DIMINISH DUE TO THE DRYING
AND ESPECIALLY THE MID LEVELS. AUGUST HEATING MAY SPARK ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTION BUT SLIGHT CHANCE DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE DAY
4-7 EXTENDED PERIOD ZFP. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL IN
THE 60S THU/FRI NIGHT INLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO SHOWERS AT KFLO. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IT WAS
VFR/TEMPO MVFR WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. MOST OF THE SHRA IS
LIGHT...EXCEPT THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MDT-HVY RAINFALL. NO
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BEING DETECTED.
AT KLBT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
VFR CIGS AT KLBT. AT KFLO CIGS/VSBYS COULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY TEMPO IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TEMPO MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT BRIEF
IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE NEAR KILM MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING TO THE KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD
DISSIPATE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH IFR VSBYS/TEMPO LIFR CIGS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MONDAY
MORNING THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...A BUMPY 3-4 FEET ON THE WATERS WITH 10-15
KT SE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...AS A MODERATE E-ENE WIND FLOW
IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LIMIT VSBYS TO 1 NM AT
TIMES DUE TO TROPICAL AIR MASS TYPE RAINS. THE SEA SPECTRUM MOSTLY
A MDT E CHOP WITH DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY IN THE 4-5 SECONDS
RANGE...MIXED WITH WEAKER LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES. ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL PUSH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND MARINERS SHOULD BE
MINDFUL OF RADAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW STORM MOTION COULD
RESULT IN UNPREDICTABLE BLOSSOMING OF NEW STORM GROWTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONT BISECTING THE WATERS WILL
SUSTAIN ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS...AND UNSETTLED
MARINE WX TO BOOT. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES.
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED. TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SW WINDS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTN AND NIGHT OF 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO
ADVISORY EXPECTED BUT A CAUTION STATEMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RESIDUAL E-ESE WAVES WILL PREVAIL MON/TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO
MDT SW CHOP LATE INTO TUESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD OBTAIN A RADAR FIX
THIS PERIOD BEFORE DEPARTURE SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM SATURDAY...A TRANSITION PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...CROSSES THE COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO N AND NE INTO THURSDAY. A CAUTION STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED BUT ADVISORIES APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TSTMS WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR FILERS IN
OVER THE WATERS. THE NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND DIE WITH RETURN FLOW
QUICK ON THE HEELS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM SUNDAY...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING HIGH SURF
RUN-UP ON AREA BEACHES WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE IN THE MID EVENING.
WITH A SLIGHT LAG-TIME THIS WILL ALSO BRING FLOODING TO PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON
AREA. FOR THIS REASON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
TIDAL DECLINES OCCUR/PREDICTED MONDAY ONWARD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC
SHORT TERM...8
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG AND
NEAR AN 850MB BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NOSED IN
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES AT
KIXA...FOR EXAMPLE...HAD RISEN CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CONTINUED EXPECTATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ENOUGH CLEARING NORTHEAST
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THREE HOURS...AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY LIE OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA...POSSIBLY WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER IF THE HRRR WRF VERIFIES. HOWEVER...IN
SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WAS LIGHT COMPARED TO
OTHERS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. COORDINATED WITH CAE AND ILM AND
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO RETURN ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY
WEST TO EAST. IN THE DRIER AIR...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE RAP SHOWS A DEFINITE MINIMA OF 850MB THETA-E.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD...IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THE SFC WAVE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BUT GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CHALLENGES...CONFIDENCE ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
FORECAST WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS BUT LIGHT QPF. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY... A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ALONG THE STATIONARY/WEDGE FRONT OVER SC
EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME OF THE CAD AIRMASS TO LINGER INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOWS. A
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PRIMARY LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRYING AT
700MB...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE CAD EROSION. WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER SPEED MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDENT
WITH THE WARM SECTOR MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN NC. THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL SHOW A 40 POP OVER THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDING DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING...AND
PREFER NAM/ECMWF BASED GUIDANCE OVER THE GFS WHICH LOOKS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAD EROSION. A GUIDANCE BLEND YIELDS 80-85
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALOFT...A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW...ALBEIT STILL CYCLONIC AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PW DOWN TO AROUND
ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREEPING BACK
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 80S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED DURING THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME
DEFINITE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN
PARTICULAR. AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ALONG WEST OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KGSO. TONIGHT AFTER 03Z-06Z...LOW CLOUDS AND IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WINDS DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD WILL REMAIN E-ENE WIND BELOW 10KT.
BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL MEAN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...NP/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
322 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AS STEERING
FLOW INCREASES. COLD FRONT LONG ABOUT LATE TUESDAY. DRIER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE THE STEERING FLOW INCREASING ON MONDAY...STILL CONCERNED
ABOUT DOWNPOURS THROUGH THIS NEAR TERM...WITH THIS HAZARD ALSO
SPILLING OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING INTO MONDAY...THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TRI STATE OF SOUTHERN OHIO
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WE ARE STILL
TAKING THE ATTITUDE OF MONITORING THE RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODELS...
BEFORE POSTING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. OF COURSE...OUR
SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELD COUNTIES ARE MOST VULNERABLE...WITH CONCERNS
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. BUT EVEN IN OUR DRIER COUNTIES...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT REMAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
WILL LEAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LEVELS
STARTS TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. 12Z MODELS AGREEING
MORE WITH THE RAP PULLING THE INITIAL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE A BAND OF HIGHER POPS WITH THAT...COVERAGE STILL
DEBATABLE WITH THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
THE NAM STILL TRIES TO ANOTHER PCPN MAX ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY...BUT NOT SOLD ON THAT SOLUTION.
AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS LIFT NORTH...HAVE HIGHER POPS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER OHIO AND KENTUCKY MOVING INTO WV LATE IN THE
DAY.
STILL WORKING ON FINE TUNING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE
COLD FRONT CROSSING TUESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE TOPS 1000J/KG
TUESDAY...AND WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HELPING...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL OR TWO TUESDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH LAGGING
BEHIND HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...RESULTING IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP SHOULD BE GONE BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A FAIRLY
DRY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DO HAVE
WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT...SO COULD HAVE A VORT MAX SLIDE THROUGH AT SOME
POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PLUG ANYTHING SPECIFIC IN. STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LAST DAY OF THE WEAK STEERING MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING BY 12Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING SOONER...INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH OVERNIGHT...DID NOT HIT THE TRADITIONAL LATE SUMMER FOG. WITH
THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDING...STILL LEAVING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT NEAR 1 THSD FT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING
BKW...WITH VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE.
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH...REACHING PKB
TO CKB BY 12Z MONDAY. FIGURING BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT
AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN THE PCPN. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LIMITED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING HTS. THE SE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP AREAS FURTHER EAST MORE STABLE. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
COULD BRIEFLY LOW VISIBILITY LOWER THAN SPECIFIC TAF FORECAST.
THE MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 18Z...BUT MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL START REFORMING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OHIO AND KENTUCKY BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
COULD VARY...PLUS HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS MOVE NORTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M L L M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AS STEERING
FLOW INCREASES. COLD FRONT LONG ABOUT LATE TUESDAY. DRIER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE THE STEERING FLOW INCREASING ON MONDAY...STILL CONCERNED
ABOUT DOWNPOURS THROUGH THIS NEAR TERM...WITH THIS HAZARD ALSO
SPILLING OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING INTO MONDAY...THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TRI STATE OF SOUTHERN OHIO
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WE ARE STILL
TAKING THE ATTITUDE OF MONITORING THE RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODELS...
BEFORE POSTING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. OF COURSE...OUR
SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELD COUNTIES ARE MOST VULNERABLE...WITH CONCERNS
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. BUT EVEN IN OUR DRIER COUNTIES...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT REMAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
WILL LEAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LEVELS
STARTS TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. 12Z MODELS AGREEING
MORE WITH THE RAP PULLING THE INITIAL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE A BAND OF HIGHER POPS WITH THAT...COVERAGE STILL
DEBATABLE WITH THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
THE NAM STILL TRIES TO ANOTHER PCPN MAX ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY...BUT NOT SOLD ON THAT SOLUTION.
AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS LIFT NORTH...HAVE HIGHER POPS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER OHIO AND KENTUCKY MOVING INTO WV LATE IN THE
DAY.
STILL WORKING ON FINE TUNING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND PROGGED TO BE LOCATED SW
OHIO BY 00Z TUE. OUT AHEAD...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. VARIOUS OP NWP STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
GOOD SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BY 12Z MON WHICH WILL
PROGRESS NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND PERHAPS EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SQUARELY OVER THE
AREA BY SAME TIME. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED ON
THE 305K-310K SFCS...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN CORRESPONDING OMEGA
FIELDS. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS OR HIGH RAIN RATES. BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LIFT AND GOOD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...DO THINK THAT MANY AREAS WILL
SEE A DECENT SHOT AT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY SERVE TO DAMPEN PRECIP
CHANCES AND/OR AMOUNTS EVEN MORE IN THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN THE I79
CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST BECOMING LOCATED OVER SW ONTARIO BY
12Z TUE. A GOOD CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM
NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL NEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND
00Z TUE AND PUSH ACROSS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE AS THEY APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA MON
EVE...AND IT WOULD/T BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A
STORM REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 25-30KTS AND
EL/S UP TO AROUND 39KFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROGGED WIND FIELDS AND WBZ
HEIGHTS UPWARDS OF 14KFT PLUS...NOT REALLY EXPECTING SEVERE ACTIVITY.
STORMS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN GENERAL
AS THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD AND RUN INTO WANING INSTABILITY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUE.
IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER ACTUALLY
SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EARLY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINING...LOW LEVEL CU FIELD SHOULD REDEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AREA-WIDE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO REAL SFC FEATURE TO
KEY ON FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL KEEP INHERITED
CHANCE POPS FOR TUE. FINALLY BY TUE NIGHT THE SECONDARY STRONGER
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FROM NW TO SE. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
ONLY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT POSSIBLY LIMITING COVERAGE.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S LOWLANDS. MINS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST...AS THE SECONDARY FRONT WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING WV AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE GONE BY
MORNING...HOWEVER...HANGING ONTO SOME POPS WITH 500MB TROUGH STILL
CROSSING. GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING AT 500MB FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE
TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LAST DAY OF THE WEAK STEERING MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING BY 12Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING SOONER...INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH OVERNIGHT...DID NOT HIT THE TRADITIONAL LATE SUMMER FOG. WITH
THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDING...STILL LEAVING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT NEAR 1 THSD FT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING
BKW...WITH VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE.
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH...REACHING PKB
TO CKB BY 12Z MONDAY. FIGURING BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH WIDEPSREAD CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT
AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN THE PCPN. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LIMITED TO
THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING HTS. THE SE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP AREAS FURTHER EAST MORE STABLE. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
COULD BRIEFLY LOW VISIBILITY LOWER THAN SPECIFIC TAF FORECAST.
THE MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 18Z...BUT MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL START REFORMING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OHIO AND KENTUCKTY BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
COULD VARY...PLUS HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS MOVE NORTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THEN A POTENT UPPER TROUGH RIDING ABOVE THE LOW WILL ENHANCE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A DRY PATTERN
LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATES WERE GENERALLY FOCUSED ON NORTHERN KENTUCKY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH BROAD
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEAR OUR SOUTHERN CWA. LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI...BUT MORE EFFICIENT
RAINERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF LEXINGTON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BASED ON CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...BUT
MAINTAINED A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT WITH DRIER EASTERLY FLOW
FARTHER NORTH MUCH LIKE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THOUGH...AS HRRR TRIES TO PUSH SOME CONVECTION NORTHWARD BY THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GREAT AND WILL NOT BE AIDED BY
SURFACE HEATING EITHER...BUT ENOUGH TO RESUME THUNDERSTORM MENTION
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SLOW
MOVEMENTS...SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 TODAY IN THE FAR
SOUTH. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO...THE MID 80S WILL
BE EASILY ATTAINABLE...IF NOT A FEW CLICKS HIGHER IN A SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THE H5 RIDGE IS SHUNTED EWD AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS PRODUCES ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY THE H5 S/W SWINGS INTO THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES THE
FOCUS FOR A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. WENT LIKELY POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AS MONDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSES. ADDITIONAL H5 ENERGY DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY SHARPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. CONVECTION SHOULD
REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...WITH ALL LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EXITING
PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND 500-1000
HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECASTER LATTO SIGNING OFF
AT THE ILN CWA...IT HAS BEEN A FINE EXPERIENCE WORKING HERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...BUT
THESE HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY APPROACHING CINCINNATI. THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WILL MEAN THESE WILL
BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS IF THEY DEVELOP CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL STRADDLE VFR AND
MVFR LEVELS EXCEPT AT THE COLUMBUS SITES.
COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...A WARM FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT AT
CVG/LUK...AS THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW WELL SUCH A BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR. THERE MAY BE
A LULL DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY BEFORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CROSSES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY...BUT DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING SUCH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE SINCE VSBY/CIGS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN ALOFT IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION IN THE
HIGHER LATITUDES...WITH A SPLIT FLOW BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FARTHER SOUTH...A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE REINFORCING PUSH OF SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST HI-RES SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE NOT VERY EXCITED
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS AND OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH SCATTERED POPS MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED OUT OF HERE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COOLER...DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN.
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RATHER PLEASANT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S AND EVEN 50S IN THE COOLER SPOTS. NICE
PREVIEW OF FALL I WOULD SAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY DURING THIS TIME ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
TODAY`S RUNS BRING A DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A SOUTHERN HI PLAINS RIDGE AND
THUS THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 90 64 86 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 72 92 67 87 / 40 20 0 0
MLC 72 90 67 87 / 40 20 0 0
BVO 68 90 61 86 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 68 86 61 81 / 30 20 0 0
BYV 68 85 61 79 / 40 20 0 0
MKO 71 90 64 86 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 69 88 60 83 / 40 10 0 0
F10 71 89 66 86 / 30 10 0 0
HHW 73 93 70 90 / 30 30 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
NEAR THE COAST AND WORKS ITS WAY INLAND AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO EXPAND HIGHER POPS
INTO HARRIS COUNTY. HIGH RES HRRR AND RAP INITIALIZED THE BEST
THIS MORNING AND ARE SHOWING COVERAGE CONTINUING TO EXPAND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAKES SENSE AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.00"
THIS MORNING AND A WEAK VORT LOBE REMAINS JUST EAST OF US IN
LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO A SHEAR AXIS AT 500 DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HELP TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING PW`S AROUND 2" ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH AID
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE. SIMILAR SET UP PROBABLE FOR
MONDAY.
BY LATE MON AFTN WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THRU N TX. MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST THIS
WILL ALSO TRIGGER PRECIP WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SE TX
MON NIGHT & TUE MORNING. THE FRONT/WINDSHIFT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL
ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX LATE TUE/WED.
DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.3") WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MON NIGHT-WED SO WILL NEED
TO BE ON LOOKOUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT (WHERE FRONT
WILL END UP STALLING ACROSS CWA, TIMING OF PRECIP PERIODS,
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, ETC, ETC). IN SIMILAR SET-UPS IN THE PAST, &
ABSENT MCS DEVELOPMENT, HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED WHERE FRONTAL
CONVECTION & SEABREEZE COLLIDE. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT SOME TIME PERIODS WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IF/WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE & TIMING
IMPROVES.
THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD WASHOUT LATE WED. AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
BUT WE`LL STILL BE SITUATED IN TAIL END OF ERN TROF/WEAKNESS SO
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH, THEY WON`T GO TO ZERO. 47
MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY WASH OUT BY MID WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FCST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD PRODUCE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 77 98 77 96 / 20 20 30 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 97 77 95 / 40 20 30 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 83 92 83 92 / 30 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM JUST WEST OF DULUTH TO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. OTHER SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP IN THE
MOISTURE RETURN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. MOST OF
THE MESO MODELS KEEP THESE LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
OFFSHORE OVER THE LAKE. BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AND
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS
MOISTURE ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE. AMPLE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ERODING
LATE TONIGHT WHEN A MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS MOVES INTO THAT PART OF
THE STATE. WILL RAMP UP PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 09Z WHEN THE COLUMN
BECOMES MORE SATURATED AND FORCING MARGINALLY INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...SLOWED DOWN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND WENT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH OT LOWER 60S SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SREF INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES
DRAMATICALLY IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND THEN SPREAD THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. TOUGH TO GET AN
ESTIMATE ON POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SINCE PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED...BUT A ROUGH ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG OF ML CAPE. BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY AROUND 25 KTS AND
THINK FORCING IS TOO WEAK TO GENERATE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTH TO AROUND 80
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
RATHER STABLE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
NOTABLE TROUGHS SITUATED ON BOTH COASTS AND RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING INTO CANADA. THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PATTERN OFFERS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS
WILL BE THE RULE.
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON OVERALL TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. USING A BLENDED MODEL QPF
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR LAKE HURON
TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT FAIRLY DECENT NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE CLOUDY START...COLD
ADVECTION...AND CORE OF COOLEST 850 TEMPS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE OVER THE AREA...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE WEEK...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS
AROUND NORMAL FOR MIDDLE OF AUGUST. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN THAT GIVEN PALTRY MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
HINTS OF A CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOWERING VSBYS DESPITE
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
233 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE TROUGHING WAS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TWO OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EVIDENT OVER
NORTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. BOTH OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE
STAYED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A FLOW OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTED THE
DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE WELL...RANGING FROM 1-1.25 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
IOWA AND MISSOURI. THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS LED
TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...AMD WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C ON 12Z
RAOBS...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. IN THE
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD...MAIN ITEM TO NOTE IS A COLD FRONT
TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA UPPER
TROUGH. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DRY AIRMASS WAS COMING IN BEHIND IT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS
PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE TROUGHING
APPROACHES...THE STREAM OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OFF
TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORCING MECHANISMS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC. FOR TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MN IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IOWA HEADS DOWN INTO
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THUS...THESE SHORTWAVES SPLIT AROUND
THE REGION. MODEL QPF PROGS REFLECT THIS WELL. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN SHORTWAVE...AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER...PRIMARILY ACROSS WISCONSIN AS THE MAIN TROUGHING COMES
THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE MOISTURE REALLY
DOESNT GET SCOURED OUT UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGHING MOVES IN. WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS
WISCONSIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP IN THE 60-70 RANGE. ONE THING WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH IS SOME OF THE 12Z HIRES MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPCWRF-
NMM...SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INITIATE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND STAY TO THE EAST. WEST OF THE MS RIVER...CLOUDS
THAT MOVE IN TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR AS THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECT IN.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 30000 FT...CAPE PROFILE OVERALL IS
QUITE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 25 KT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
ARE AROUND 3500 M. IF ANYTHING...WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT. COOLEST SPOT LIKELY TO BE IN
CENTRAL WI WHERE CLOUDS/MOISTURE ARRIVE LAST. CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT
OF AN ISSUE ON MONDAY FROM WARMING...BUT ENOUGH SUN SHOULD FILTER
THROUGH PLUS CLEARING WEST OF MS RIVER LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE ON TRACK TO COME INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING...PUSHING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
OFF TO THE EAST AND CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALLING TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...BUT A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
BREEZE SHOULD HELP A BIT FROM ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COMPLETELY
TANK.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEATURES GRADUALLY RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS
UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE
UPPER RIDGING THERE EASTWARD AND THE NEW TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EASTWARD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THESE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...LATE WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE 10.12Z GFS AND NAM DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90.
10.12Z ECMWF HAS SOME ISOLATED LIGHT QPF...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90.
10.12Z CANADIAN ALSO DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF BUT SOUTH OF I-90. THIS
QPF IS A RESULT OF A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/800-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INITIATING PRECIPITABLE
BELOW THE 500MB SUBSIDENCE. CONCERNED THE GFS/NAM MAY BE OVERLY
WET...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SIGNAL THERE HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES ALONG/NORTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD BOUNCE WELL INTO THE 70S...FOLLOWED BY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN. COULD SEE SOME
VALLEY/RADIATIONAL FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. SLIGHTLY
WARMER 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP GIVE A COUPLE DEGREE BOOST TO HIGHS COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND TRACKING EAST...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EVENTUALLY TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS 500MB FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION.
09.12Z/10.00Z ECMWF AND 10.12Z GFS IN FACT SUGGEST A BRIEF SURGE OF
HEAT TO COME INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEW 10.12Z HAS
COMPLETELY WENT AWAY FROM THIS...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH BLOCKS THE HEAT FROM ARRIVING ON
SUNDAY. MOST DAYS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS AT
MOST MID 80S. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS...ITS POSSIBLE
THAT MID-LEVEL SHOWER/SPRINKLE STUFF FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOCATION LOOKS TO SHIFT TO MOSTLY WEST
OF THE MS RIVER AND MAY HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS WITH IT.
THEREFORE...DO HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IS NOW UP IN THE AIR AFTER THE 10.12Z ECMWF CAME IN.
PREVIOUSLY IT APPEARED A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD
COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE HEAT SURGE...AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH APPROACHED. HOWEVER...
THE NEW ECMWF HAS THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH RESULTS IN 20-40
PERCENT CHANCES...MAYBE A 50 THERE ON SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...THE WEEKEND WILL
NEED TO BE DRIED OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...A WEAK COOL FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS...DOWN INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...REACHING KRST/KLSE TONIGHT.
THE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE DIURNAL...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH GROUP AT KRST FOR THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK
INVERSION AND COUPLED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING...A MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO BE 1500 TO 2500 FT. THIS IS SEEN ALSO BY THE HI-RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KRST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO
INCLUDE. THE STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...MOVING EAST AND ALSO LIFTING AS DAYTIME MIXING KICKS IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THE SHORT
TERM MESO MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE
10.05Z HRRR AND 10.00Z HI-RES ARW INDICATING THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD
TAKE WHAT REMAINS OF THIS RAIN PAST THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PLAN TO STAY WITH A DRY MORNING.
HOW THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT IS LESS CLEAR. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING MINNESOTA CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVING THE NEBRASKA
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI. THIS
RESULTS IN THE AREA GETTING SPLIT BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
VERY LITTLE FORCING. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS KEPT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE 10.00Z
NAM SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CAPE BUILDS AND THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THE HI-RES ARW...10.00Z HI-
RES NMM...10.06Z RAP AND 10.00Z ECMWF ALL INDICATE THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHILE THE 10.00Z NAM AND GFS
TRY TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS. TEND TO
THINK THE MESO SCALE MODELS HAVE THE BETTER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CUT
THE RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY JUST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE MAINLY AFTER
21Z.
THE INITIAL TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE PAST THE AREA
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO KEEP THE BULK OF ITS FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME VERY WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. A LITTLE BIT OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO THE WAVE WITH THE NAM
SHOWING 1 TO 2 UBAR/S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE 300K
SURFACE. WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING LOOKING TO BE COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH...WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IN THAT
AREA WITH ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO ADVANCE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TAKING
THE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY. AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF BUT THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
QUICKLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THE ML CAPE WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
750 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...CONCERNED THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE OF THE SCATTERED NATURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT
BACK OUT OF THE 60 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THE SPEED OF THE WAVE ALL THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...THE RAIN CHANCES COULD QUICKLY END LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IT MAY NOT BE NECESSARY TO CONTINUE THESE
INTO MONDAY EVENING AND THIS ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE QUICK EXIT OF THE RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE 10.00Z MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER FOR FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH FLATTENED THE RIDGE
TO ALLOW THESE WAVES TO COME THROUGH...THE CURRENT MODELS MAINTAIN
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND NOW SHOW THESE WAVES COMING
THROUGH MUCH WEAKER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE FORCING WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND ADJUSTED THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS TO SHOW A DRIER
OUTCOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...A WEAK COOL FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS...DOWN INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...REACHING KRST/KLSE TONIGHT.
THE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE DIURNAL...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH GROUP AT KRST FOR THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK
INVERSION AND COUPLED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING...A MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO BE 1500 TO 2500 FT. THIS IS SEEN ALSO BY THE HI-RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KRST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO
INCLUDE. THE STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...MOVING EAST AND ALSO LIFTING AS DAYTIME MIXING KICKS IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION APPROACHING UPPER MS VALLEY. A
FAIRLY INTENSE CLOSED LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH HAS KEPT CONVECTION RATHER ISOLATED AND
CONFINED TO THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY
TRIGGERED ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE. SKIES
WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
PREVAILING WINDS WERE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
TO 20 MPH IN A FEW LOCALES.
THE 12Z SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH IS PREFERRED. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA CARVES OUT A MERIDIONAL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST MONDAY. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INLAND AND OPENS OVER NORTHERN CA.
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF ISOLATION. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS OR
TSTORMS COULD DRIFT EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING EARLY EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
TUESDAY... SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
700MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 13C YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 12 TO 15C. LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON WED IN ADVANCE
OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THIS WAVE SHOULD
PASS TO OUR NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK...SEVERAL ASSOCIATED PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO/WY ON WED AND THU. THIS OCCURS
IN LINE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR A FEW AREAS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE GFS SUGGESTS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP LLVL MOISTURE INTACT OVER THE PANHANDLE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG EACH
AFTERNOON COULD AID IN STRONG STORMS...BUT SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
TOO WEAK BENEATH LARGER SCALE RIDGING TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THE PULSE VARIETY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE CWA AND
USHERING IN SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR TO REDUCE PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS THRU
THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONAL BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OR MODEST
RIDGING. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS FROM DAY TO DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
LOOK FOR SCT-TO-BKN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO INTRODUCED VCTS INTO THE RWL AND LAR TAFS.
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 20Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OR ERRATIC WINDS
COULD OCCUR IF STORMS AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES OVER NORTH AND WEST CARBON COUNTY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL AVERAGE 10 MPH OR LESS...
EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
330 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
FAIRLY INTENSE CLOSED LOW WAS DRIFTING WEST OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH HAS KEPT CONVECTION RATHER ISOLATED
AND CONFINED TO THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY TRIGGERED ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NE. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WERE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH IN A FEW LOCALES.
THE 12Z SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH IS PREFERRED. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA CARVES OUT A MERIDIONAL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST MONDAY. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INLAND AND OPENS OVER NORTHERN CA.
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF ISOLATION. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS OR
TSTORMS COULD DRIFT EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING EARLY EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
TUESDAY... SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
700MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 13C YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 12 TO 15C. LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON WED IN ADVANCE
OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THIS WAVE SHOULD
PASS TO OUR NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK...SEVERAL ASSOCIATED PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO/WY ON WED AND THU. THIS OCCURS
IN LINE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR A FEW AREAS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE GFS SUGGESTS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP LLVL MOISTURE INTACT OVER THE PANHANDLE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG EACH
AFTERNOON COULD AID IN STRONG STORMS...BUT SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
TOO WEAK BENEATH LARGER SCALE RIDGING TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THE PULSE VARIETY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE CWA AND
USHERING IN SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR TO REDUCE PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS THRU
THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONAL BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OR MODEST
RIDGING. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS FROM DAY TO DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
LOOK FOR SCT-TO-BKN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO INTRODUCED VCTS INTO THE RWL AND LAR TAFS.
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 20Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OR ERRATIC WINDS
COULD OCCUR IF STORMS AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES OVER NORTH AND WEST CARBON COUNTY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL AVERAGE 10 MPH OR LESS...
EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL
NE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NE MARKED
BY EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID CLOUDS. 14Z HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
DEPICTS WIDELY SCT SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE INVOF SOUTHEAST WY MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHADRON TO SIDNEY
NE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE BASED ON
THESE TRENDS. GOING MAX TEMP FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. MODELS DO SHOW A CAP IN PLACE OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE CAP IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO NOT 100
PERCENT RULING OUT A STORM IN THE EAST BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. NOT EVEN SURE THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSIDERED
ONLY MENTIONING SHOWERS GIVEN MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND RISING
HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES SO WENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT A BIT WARMER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ROCKIES. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AT MOST. AGAIN MAINLY LOOKING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS MAY SPREAD
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THE ODDS ARE LOW. DO NOT EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EITHER TODAY OR MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILS...LIMITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THOUGH WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE ISOLATED EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
TUESDAY...DESPITE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT...WE WILL SEE AN INFLUX
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25.
WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
TRAVERSING OUR COUNTIES...SPARKING SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
EAST.
THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP
BENEATH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE ALOFT WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL EAST UPSLOPE WINDS.
FRIDAY...NEXT MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA...AND ITS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER
OUR COUNTIES...SPARKING ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...DRIER DAY ON TAP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
OVER OUR COUNTIES...PRODUCING A DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCALES WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO KIMBALL LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT CDR
AND AIA LATE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SCT-TO-BKN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN A FEW HOURS...SO INTRODUCED VCTS INTO
THE RWL AND LAR TAFS. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 20Z. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR ERRATIC WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS AFFECT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS WEEK BUT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS DO NOT SEE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1132 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL
NE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NE MARKED
BY EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID CLOUDS. 14Z HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
DEPICTS WIDELY SCT SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE INVOF SOUTHEAST WY MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHADRON TO SIDNEY
NE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE BASED ON
THESE TRENDS. GOING MAX TEMP FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. MODELS DO SHOW A CAP IN PLACE OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE CAP IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO NOT 100
PERCENT RULING OUT A STORM IN THE EAST BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. NOT EVEN SURE THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSIDERED
ONLY MENTIONING SHOWERS GIVEN MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND RISING
HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES SO WENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT A BIT WARMER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ROCKIES. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AT MOST. AGAIN MAINLY LOOKING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS MAY SPREAD
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THE ODDS ARE LOW. DO NOT EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EITHER TODAY OR MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILS...LIMITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THOUGH WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE ISOLATED EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
TUESDAY...DESPITE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT...WE WILL SEE AN INFLUX
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25.
WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
TRAVERSING OUR COUNTIES...SPARKING SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
EAST.
THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP
BENEATH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE ALOFT WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL EAST UPSLOPE WINDS.
FRIDAY...NEXT MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA...AND ITS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER
OUR COUNTIES...SPARKING ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...DRIER DAY ON TAP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
OVER OUR COUNTIES...PRODUCING A DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCALES WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO KIMBALL LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS
IN PLACE. THE SAME GOES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS WEEK BUT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS DO NOT SEE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...LIEBL
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL