Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...04Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING CLOUD
TOPS OVER EXTREME SERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE WE SAW SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE SHWR ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS EVE...A RESULT OF CONVECTION
WHICH SPILLED NORTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW VERY WEAK
ECHOES REMAINED IN EXTREME SRN COCHISE CNTY WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SERN AZ...SKIES WERE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW LINGERING MAINLY CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDS. AREA SFC TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOW 90S TO THE UPPER 70S WITH
THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS...NOT SURPRISINGLY...ACROSS COCHISE CNTY.
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS INDICATING AT THIS TIME THAT ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
IS STILL OCCURRING OVER CNTRL SONORA WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND
APPROACHING 50 KFT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTFLOW
FROM THIS COMPLEX PUSHING NORTH INTO SANTA CRUZ AND/OR COCHISE
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 06Z AND THEN SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...SO NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE DETAIL...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/23Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS NE OF KDUG THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFT 07/21Z. CLOUDS THRU 07/06Z AND AFT 07/19Z...
SKC-FEW CLOUDS AT 10-13K FT AGL WEST OF KTUS...WITH KTUS VICINITY
EWD FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL...AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL MAINLY SE OF KTUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 07/06Z AND 07/19Z. SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXPECT FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWWD THRU BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH THE GREAT BASIN TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. FOR
A SHORT TIME...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS. LATE IN THE WKEND ANOTHER TROF WILL DROP SWD ALONG THE PAC
COASTLINE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SE AZ. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN EACH OF THE MODELS ON THE DAY
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
WITHOUT GOING INTO ALL THAT DETAIL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW
A GRADUAL DAILY INCREASE IN SHWRS/TSTMS FRI-SUN. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
SAT...THOUGH ALMOST CERTAINLY BY SUN. DEEPER SELY FLOW WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO YIELD THE DAILY CYCLE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS.
A VERY GRADUAL AND WEAK DAILY COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THUR-SAT
FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SUN-WED.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
335 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
AFFECTING TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH 01Z WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO IMPACT THE PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
TOMORROW...MORE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES A WEAK ROUGE CELL NEAR MONUMENT HILL
TRACKING EAST...AND MAY CLIP THE COUNTY BOUNDARY THROUGH 11 PM.
MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CURRENTLY...
WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS INITIATING SOME CONVECTION OVER KIOWA COUNTY AT 2 PM.
GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50 WINDS WERE FROM A WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT
WHILE WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTH OF 50.
OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR MTNS...IT HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A
BIT WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DRIER ALOFT AS CLOUDS ARE NOTICEABLY MUCH LESS
ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF US-50.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WALDO BURN
SCAR. HRRR SHOWING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
C MTNS...GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS THIS AREA IN EARLIER UPDATES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING
NOT LIKELY OVER BURN SCARS...ONE HEAVY SHOWER IN THE WRONG PLACE CAN
EASILY CAUSE PROBLEMS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AS 60 DWPTS CURRENTLY IN
SW NEB ARE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THE GREATER KIOWA COUNTY REGION. NAM GUIDANCE HAS SOME PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT THIS REGION BUT IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE.
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE MTNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD AND HIGH
VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND HAVE POPS DRAWN UP
EVERYWHERE OVER THE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND AREA WILL LIKELY BE FEELING THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OVER E UTAH. CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIATE AROUND ITS NORMAL TIME OVER THE MTNS (NOONISH) AND THEN
INCREASE AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
OVER C MTNS...PIKES PEAK AREA AND FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FLOODING THREAT ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY. STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED TOMORROW DUE TO A BIT
BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES. AN ISOLD SVR STORM CANT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF THE MCS WHICH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OUTFLOW. OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO MOST MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MOVES TO THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA...BUT THERE IS THREAT FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. POPS GRIDS KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THESE
REGIONS FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. CANNOT
GET VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
OUTFLOW FROM MCS...BUT HUNCH IS OUTFLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN MOST
MODELS SUGGEST. IF THIS IS THE CASE...LOW LEVELS COULD BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW LEVELS
ARE TOO CLOUDY OR COOL...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE STABLE ON THE PLAINS.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCATTERED POPS MAINLY ALONG PALMER DIVIDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. NAM12 HAS A POTENT AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY...AND CAPES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ARE OVER 2000 J/KG. THINK
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...MONSOON PLUME IS MOSTLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST
WITH THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER COLORADO. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START BRINGING MORE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. POPS INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD CONTINUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF A
PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING
AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MORE SUBTLE
FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE A DECREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MID WEEK FOR A DECREASED
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE. LIKELY STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...BUT
PATTERN CHANGES SUGGESTS LOWER COVERAGE WITH LESS INTENSITY.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS TOWARDS 12Z...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF KLHX AND WILL BE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN +TSRA...AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL. TAFS CARRY ONLY VCTS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KCOS AND KPUB DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF THEY DO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS RADAR RETURNS DETECTING
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOUDS
ARE ALSO INCREASING QUICKLY...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HRRR INDICATING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IMPACTING THE
SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
COOLED QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL START TO LEVEL OFF
DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD POOL WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WAS THE CASE LAST
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...SOME RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING
FEATURE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL. SHOULD TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
70S...AND DEWPOINTS REACH OR EXCEED THE MID 50S...THEN CAN NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL/WIND. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY...AND
FORCING WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND E OF ALBANY...ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN
VT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AT THIS
TIME...BUT FUTURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY OCCURS...AND RESULTS IN STRONGER TSTMS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
THU NT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/NW MA AND THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
THEN...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 45-50
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VT. ELSEWHERE...OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI NT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE INTO MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST WILL BUILD A TROF BACK ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S RANGE. AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TUESDAY/S HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS...
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER STILL FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER
80S...NORMAL LOWS...AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALREADY HAVE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT KGFL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THIN OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP
AT KGFL...KPSF AND KPOU. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT KALB AS A LIGHT
WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION AS THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -17 TO -19 DEGREES CELSIUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WEST WINDS AT KALB...OTHERWISE CALM WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AT KALB AND KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT..WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100
PERCENT FOR THU NT/FRI AM WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH
FOR THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND MUCH
STRONGER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DIMINISH...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS RADAR RETURNS DETECTING
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOUDS
ARE ALSO INCREASING QUICKLY...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HRRR INDICATING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IMPACTING THE
SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
COOLED QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL START TO LEVEL OFF
DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD POOL WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WAS THE CASE LAST
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...SOME RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING
FEATURE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL. SHOULD TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
70S...AND DEWPOINTS REACH OR EXCEED THE MID 50S...THEN CAN NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL/WIND. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY...AND
FORCING WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND E OF ALBANY...ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN
VT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AT THIS
TIME...BUT FUTURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY OCCURS...AND RESULTS IN STRONGER TSTMS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
THU NT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/NW MA AND THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
THEN...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 45-50
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VT. ELSEWHERE...OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI NT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE INTO MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST WILL BUILD A TROF BACK ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S RANGE. AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TUESDAY/S HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS...
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER STILL FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER
80S...NORMAL LOWS...AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY AT THE KGFL/KLB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION AT
KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. THE FOG FORMATION IS STILL NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...AND SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL
MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG
BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z.
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY ON
THURSDAY AT 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT..WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100
PERCENT FOR THU NT/FRI AM WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH
FOR THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND MUCH
STRONGER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DIMINISH...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
LAST OF CONVECTION OVER SE GA HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA AND
OCMULGEE RIVERS IN SE GA. AS ACTIVITY WANES OVER THE NRN
ZONES...STORMS OVER CENTRAL FL ARE DRIFTING ACROSS OUR SRN BORDER.
THE LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS JUICY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S FROM
GAINESVILLE TO PALATKA WTIH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ABOVE 2500 J/KG.
THE HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY WILL PUSH NORTH INTO COASTAL FLAGLER
COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING...BUT SHOWS NOTHING OVER
MARION COUNTY WHERE STORMS ARE APPROACHING DUNNELLON. UPDATES WILL
LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEP ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS AT GNV AND
VQQ DUE TO PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 17Z ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE IS
EXPECTED THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. NO CHANGES EXPECTED WITH UPDATE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 94 75 94 / 50 50 50 50
SSI 77 89 77 89 / 10 30 30 40
JAX 74 92 75 93 / 10 40 40 40
SGJ 77 91 75 91 / 10 40 30 40
GNV 72 92 72 93 / 10 50 50 50
OCF 73 92 73 92 / 10 50 50 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MKT/PP/RW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
917 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CAME IN WITH
PWAT JUST ABOVE TWO INCHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM YESTERDAY AND IS
NOW 6.5 C/KM WITH A 500 MB TEMPERATURE OF -7C WHICH IS 1 DEGREE
COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALSO VERY WEAK SO
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN 5 MPH. GIVEN ALL OF THIS,
LARGE OUTBREAK OF CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT SET
UP SEEM NEARLY CERTAIN WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING MOST ACTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INLAND. SO MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST HIGHER POPS FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT WITH SUCH SLOW FORECAST
MOTION, WILL WAIT UNTIL DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO OCCUR AND MAKE AN
ASSESSMENT AT THAT TIME.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. AROUND THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO FORM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO START AROUND 16Z-18Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME RANGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE
WITH ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF MAINE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT THE FLOW ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH IN
QUICKLY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALLOWING STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IN THE INTERIOR...AND THEN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVERALL IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IN PART RELATED TO A SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FROM THE SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THIS MAY LEAD
TO EARLIER AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS THAN YESTERDAY NEAR KAPF. SO
VCTS GROUP WAS MOVED UP A FEW HOURS THERE. ALSO...A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW TO W WIND AND MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
MAY PRODUCE QUICKER OR MORE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN
CONCLUSION...VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES...AND THE FEELING
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
MARINE...
ATLANTIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND REGIONAL SEAS LESS THAN TWO FEET THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
MIAMI 91 78 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 91 77 90 76 / 40 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
804 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. AROUND THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO FORM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO START AROUND 16Z-18Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME RANGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE
WITH ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF MAINE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT THE FLOW ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH IN
QUICKLY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALLOWING STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IN THE INTERIOR...AND THEN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVERALL IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IN PART RELATED TO A SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FROM THE SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THIS MAY LEAD
TO EARLIER AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS THAN YESTERDAY NEAR KAPF. SO
VCTS GROUP WAS MOVED UP A FEW HOURS THERE. ALSO...A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW TO W WIND AND MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
MAY PRODUCE QUICKER OR MORE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN
CONCLUSION...VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES...AND THE FEELING
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
MARINE...
ATLANTIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND REGIONAL SEAS LESS THAN TWO FEET THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 77 91 / 20 50 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 91 / 20 50 20 50
MIAMI 78 90 77 92 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF MAINE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT THE FLOW ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH IN
QUICKLY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALLOWING STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IN THE INTERIOR...AND THEN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVERALL IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IN PART RELATED TO A SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FROM THE SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THIS MAY LEAD
TO EARLIER AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS THAN YESTERDAY NEAR KAPF. SO
VCTS GROUP WAS MOVED UP A FEW HOURS THERE. ALSO...A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW TO W WIND AND MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
MAY PRODUCE QUICKER OR MORE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN
CONCLUSION...VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES...AND THE FEELING
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ATLANTIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND REGIONAL SEAS LESS THAN TWO FEET THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
MIAMI 91 78 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 91 77 90 76 / 40 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HELPED SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING LEAD
TO DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR 2.1 INCHES HAS ALSO HELPED SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE
LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHED INSTABILITY
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SCATTERED
COVERAGE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE NORTH PART TOWARD MORNING.
CONTINUED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERNIGHT SUPPORTS A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 574 DAM IS A PREFERRED DEPTH FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. BASED ON GUIDANCE AND MODEL SPECTRUM DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURE AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EXIT THE MIDLANDS AROUND 04Z.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE DURING THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HELPED SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING LEAD
TO DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR 2.1 INCHES HAS ALSO HELPED SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS. RADAR HAS INDICATED A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE
LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHED INSTABILITY
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SCATTERED
COVERAGE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE NORTH PART TOWARD MORNING.
CONTINUED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERNIGHT SUPPORTS A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 574 DAM IS A PREFERRED DEPTH FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. BASED ON GUIDANCE AND MODEL SPECTRUM DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURE AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z. ONCE
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS RISE DURING THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR
AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
742 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND STALL. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL STALL TONIGHT. DESPITE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE
NEARING THE CSRA TOWARD 600 PM. THE 00Z SPC WRF SHOWS JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL GET OFF TO A
WARM START AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LITTLE CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM. IT SHOULD BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT
FALLING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JUST A FEW HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL MENTION
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT AGS/OGB/CUB FOR AN HOUR. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 6-8 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN GO BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST H3R AND RAP SHOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF 100 DEG
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE READY
TO GO THAT HIGH RIGHT NOW...BUT DID NUDGE HIGHS UP A DEGREE IN A
FEW SELECT LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
AN ILL-DEFINED LEE SIDE TROUGH WL MEANDER INTO THE AREA TDA AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE SLGTLY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. MODEST W/NW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE PSNG ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 590 DM
ANTICYCLONE CNTRD OVR THE FL STRAIGHTS WL PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO
THE BEACHES AGAIN THIS AFTN. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO
+18-20C WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2C WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. XPCT A SLGTLY
WARMER DAY AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES. SOME OF THE 07/00Z COOP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A FEW SPOTS REACHING 100 DEGS WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
UNREASONABLE WITH SOME PRE-FNTL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LIKELY TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APRCHG BACKDOOR CDFNT. DEWPTS ARE FCST TO MIX
OUT ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING TO KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES 100-105
DEGS THIS AFTN...WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE LTE SUMMER HEAT ADV
CRITERIA OF 110 DEGS.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WL FIRE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP. A DRY W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DVLPG OVER OR
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA WITHOUT SOME SORT OF STRONG IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS OR SC UPSTATE DURING PEAK
HEATING. WITH LTL TO NO LOW-LEVEL CONVG NOTED ALONG THE PINNED SEA
BREEZE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE/DNVA NOTED OVER THE AREA...SUSPECT ONLY
VERY ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO PSBLY FIRE ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST.
GRIDDED POPS WL BE CAPPED AT 5-10 PCNT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WITH
POPS 0-5 PCNT ELSEWHERE. LATER SHIFTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO ADD A
MENTIONABLE POP BACK INTO THE FCST ONCE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE SCALE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LTR TDA...BUT THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES
THIS EVNG...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL EMPIRE OF SE GA OVRNGT.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FNT AND DPVA ASSOC WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
SUPPORT ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS ROUGHLY IN THE 9PM-3AM TIME FRAME. THE
SYNOPTIC MID- LVL FLOW WL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE WITH W/NW TRAJS...BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 700 HPA THETA-E...ROUGHLY 330-332K...
POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
COUNTERACT THIS. WL FCST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS CAPPED AT 15-20 PCNT. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE NGT FOR
LTE SUMMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR-MID 70S INLAND...MID-
UPR 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPR 70S-LWR 80S AT THE BEACHES AND DWTN
CHARLESTON.
FRIDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...FORCING WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA...AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON SFC HEATING.
AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT A RAIN-FREE FORECAST DURING MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE MAINTAINING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS H5
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST AND SPAWNS A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG
OR NEAR THE WEAKENED FRONT TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE MID LVL LOW POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH...CAUSING THE SFC LOW TO SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SUPPORT SOLID
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AREAS OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. PWATS AT OR
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES SUPPORT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ONCE IT STALLS AND BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE INTO LATE WEEK. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT WITH SLIGHT
VARIATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT. CHANCES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE GREATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NO CONCERNS. W/SW WNDS WL BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN AS A
WEAK SEA BREEZE DVLPS RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. WINDS WL GENERALLY
BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...THE WND FIELD WL BECOME RATHER LGT AND CHAOTIC OVRNGT AS
A BACKDOOR CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE WTRS. SEAS WL REMAIN 1-3 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH
OF THE WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT OR BELOW
10 KTS INITIALLY NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OFFSHORE JUST TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 15
KTS...HIGHEST NEAR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WILL BE PEAKING THIS WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED. WIND FIELDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON THE TIDES.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEPARTURE IS NEEDED ABOVE THE PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES VALUES TO RESULT IN MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SC COAST. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7 AUGUST:
KCHS 99/2008...
KCXM 97/1899...
KSAV 100/2008...
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC RADAR /KCLX/ REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL FAILURE. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE HAS THE RADAR
RETURNING TO SERVICE BETWEEN AUGUST 16TH AND 21ST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
603 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND STALL. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL STALL TONIGHT. DESPITE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE
NEARING THE CSRA TOWARD 600 PM. THE 00Z SPC WRF SHOWS JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL GET OFF TO A
WARM START AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LITTLE CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM. IT SHOULD BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JUST A FEW HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY MENTION
MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT AGS. A FEW MORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z...THEN
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 6-8 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
103 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO A MATURE MCS OVER MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE
REGION OF WARM ADVECTION MOIST ASCENT ACROSS DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT. ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTHWEST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS IOWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL SOUTH OF
SOME OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO...AND CURRENT RUNS
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A TREND TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WRF-NAM CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND HAS BEEN LARGELY DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF A BLEND OF THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SHARP
NORTHERN CUTOFF IN PRECIP/QPF FIELDS...AND HAVE DEPICTED A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM DRY NORTH TO 40-60 PERCENT POPS SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS
AND KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONGEST
850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH 1.8-2.0" PWATS. SLOWLY DAMPING MID-LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS IL/IN FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALLOWS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ONLY WEAK MODEL SIGNALS
OF SPOTTY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS WEAK REGION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
LINGERS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE
12/00Z ECMWF DURING THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
KEY ON AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DEVELOP A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PRESENT A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF
PRECIP. AGAIN HAVE FAVORED THE WEAKER ECMWF SURFACE EVOLUTION AT
THIS DISTANCE...AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST-EAST SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MODEST
AUGUST LAKE COOLING. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE BLENDED BIAS
CORRECTED TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MID-UPPER 70S WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER OR PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MINS GENERALLY 60-65.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EASTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR HIGHER WITH MID TEEN GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY
MID MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS WITH
OCCASIONAL MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR GUSTS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A LULL OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS THE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION REMAINS
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN TIER.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LIGHTER WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT
THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
OCCURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LOWS
TRACK BUT WITH LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...HELPING TO LIMIT SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...STILL FEEL THAT
A 10 TO 20 KT WIND IS PROBABLE...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Leading edge of the rain has been having difficulty making it past
a Galesburg to Paris line, as some drier dew points around 60
degrees have been in place. Small area of dry weather around
Springfield and Jacksonville has been eroding as the next batch of
rain spreads in from the southwest. Latest HRRR guidance does not
show a lot of northeast progression, and have maintained slight
chance PoP`s along the northeast fringes of the forecast area this
afternoon. The southwest CWA will see periodic rain through the
day, while the southeast sees additional showers moving in after a
short late morning break. Precipitable water values of around 1.8
to 1.9 inches will allow for locally heavy rain amounts, and the
first batch of rain has already produced around an inch or so in
the southwest corner of the CWA in a short time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Main forecast concern this period will be with the potential for
heavy rainfall across west central through southern Illinois.
A slow moving upper wave across the Missouri Valley will track
across Missouri today and into Illinois by Friday. At the surface,
a stalled frontal boundary remains south of our forecast area this
morning and is not really expected to move much to the north. As the
upper support tracks across Missouri, low pressure will move along
the stalled frontal boundary to our south, enhancing the low level
convergence along it and focusing the heavy rainfall threat across
far west central through southern Illinois today through tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear
parameters, but precipitable water values are forecast to be around
2.10 inches which is well above normal, even for August standards in
our area. Soundings, no matter what model you look at, indicate
moisture content through the entire air column remains very
impressive, with locally heavy rains from the slow moving
thunderstorms, especially over extreme west central Illinois
southeast into south central Illinois. With a persistent low level
jet orientated perpendicular into the surface and 850 mb frontal
boundary thru tonight, the threat for heavy rainfall is real. Warm
cloud depths of over 13,000 feet indicate the thunderstorms will be
very efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour possible wherever stronger storms concentrate. Rainfall totals
through tonight will range from 1 to 2 inches along and south of a
Rushville to Springfield to Mattoon line, with heavier totals possible
near Jacksonville southwest.
Areas over west central through southern Illinois can stand some
heavy rainfall, at least initially, however, with the high
precipitable water values focused along the stalled frontal
boundary, flooding potential will remain a concern over our west and
southern areas. Further north, big question is when and if rain gets
into our northeast and far eastern areas today as high pressure to
our north has drawn down some drier air and will effectively keep
rain at bay, at least initially for today with only slight chance
PoPs. As the upper wave edges across the state later tonight into early
Friday, rain chances will increase across the northeast and far
eastern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Low pressure will track into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
taking the strongest forcing further east out of the area. Will
continue likely PoPs along/east of I-57 during the morning hours,
with rain chances diminishing across the board as the day
progresses. Models remain in poor agreement this weekend, with the
GFS suggesting scattered showers/thunder both Saturday and Sunday
as region remains within a band of sheared vorticity aloft. ECMWF
is mostly dry, with surface high pressure building southward from
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and lingering frontal boundary well
to the south. Think GFS is being too aggressive with convective
development, particularly in the absence of meaningful forcing, so
have trended toward the drier ECMWF. As a result, have gone dry
for both Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the lower 80s.
After that, a series of weak upper waves will once again dig a
significant trough over eastern Canada/Great Lakes by the middle
of next week. First wave and associated frontal boundary will
swing through Illinois on Monday, accompanied by widely scattered
thunder. Second wave will arrive on Tuesday. After that, high
pressure will resume control of the weather across central
Illinois, allowing a cooler/drier air mass to arrive by next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Large rain shield slowly working its way eastward this afternoon,
but has had trouble penetrating the KPIA-KCMI corridor. Little
visibility restriction anticipated in this area during the
afternoon. However, heavier showers reducing visibility to 3 or 4
SM around KSPI and soon at KDEC. Large range in ceilings this
afternoon, but most likely persistent MVFR conditions expected at
KSPI where the rain will be most steady. The rain will become more
widely scattered this evening, allowing ceilings to come back up
for a time, but have brought them back down again late in the
night. Winds to continue from the east-southeast through the
period due to slow moving low pressure in Missouri.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO A MATURE MCS OVER MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE
REGION OF WARM ADVECTION MOIST ASCENT ACROSS DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT. ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTHWEST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS IOWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL SOUTH OF
SOME OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO...AND CURRENT RUNS
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A TREND TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WRF-NAM CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND HAS BEEN LARGELY DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF A BLEND OF THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SHARP
NORTHERN CUTOFF IN PRECIP/QPF FIELDS...AND HAVE DEPICTED A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM DRY NORTH TO 40-60 PERCENT POPS SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS
AND KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONGEST
850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH 1.8-2.0" PWATS. SLOWLY DAMPING MID-LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS IL/IN FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALLOWS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ONLY WEAK MODEL SIGNALS
OF SPOTTY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS WEAK REGION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
LINGERS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE
12/00Z ECMWF DURING THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
KEY ON AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DEVELOP A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PRESENT A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF
PRECIP. AGAIN HAVE FAVORED THE WEAKER ECMWF SURFACE EVOLUTION AT
THIS DISTANCE...AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST-EAST SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MODEST
AUGUST LAKE COOLING. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE BLENDED BIAS
CORRECTED TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MID-UPPER 70S WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER OR PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MINS GENERALLY 60-65.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EASTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR HIGHER WITH MID TEEN GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY MID MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NOT EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST. DID MAKE CHANGES TO WIND FORECAST...MOVING UP TIMING
OF STRONGER SPEEDS AND INCLUDING GUSTS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND
AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOONER ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LIGHTER WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT
THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
OCCURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LOWS
TRACK BUT WITH LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...HELPING TO LIMIT SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...STILL FEEL THAT
A 10 TO 20 KT WIND IS PROBABLE...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
944 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Leading edge of the rain has been having difficulty making it past
a Galesburg to Paris line, as some drier dew points around 60
degrees have been in place. Small area of dry weather around
Springfield and Jacksonville has been eroding as the next batch of
rain spreads in from the southwest. Latest HRRR guidance does not
show a lot of northeast progression, and have maintained slight
chance PoP`s along the northeast fringes of the forecast area this
afternoon. The southwest CWA will see periodic rain through the
day, while the southeast sees additional showers moving in after a
short late morning break. Precipitable water values of around 1.8
to 1.9 inches will allow for locally heavy rain amounts, and the
first batch of rain has already produced around an inch or so in
the southwest corner of the CWA in a short time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Main forecast concern this period will be with the potential for
heavy rainfall across west central through southern Illinois.
A slow moving upper wave across the Missouri Valley will track
across Missouri today and into Illinois by Friday. At the surface,
a stalled frontal boundary remains south of our forecast area this
morning and is not really expected to move much to the north. As the
upper support tracks across Missouri, low pressure will move along
the stalled frontal boundary to our south, enhancing the low level
convergence along it and focusing the heavy rainfall threat across
far west central through southern Illinois today through tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear
parameters, but precipitable water values are forecast to be around
2.10 inches which is well above normal, even for August standards in
our area. Soundings, no matter what model you look at, indicate
moisture content through the entire air column remains very
impressive, with locally heavy rains from the slow moving
thunderstorms, especially over extreme west central Illinois
southeast into south central Illinois. With a persistent low level
jet orientated perpendicular into the surface and 850 mb frontal
boundary thru tonight, the threat for heavy rainfall is real. Warm
cloud depths of over 13,000 feet indicate the thunderstorms will be
very efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour possible wherever stronger storms concentrate. Rainfall totals
through tonight will range from 1 to 2 inches along and south of a
Rushville to Springfield to Mattoon line, with heavier totals possible
near Jacksonville southwest.
Areas over west central through southern Illinois can stand some
heavy rainfall, at least initially, however, with the high
precipitable water values focused along the stalled frontal
boundary, flooding potential will remain a concern over our west and
southern areas. Further north, big question is when and if rain gets
into our northeast and far eastern areas today as high pressure to
our north has drawn down some drier air and will effectively keep
rain at bay, at least initially for today with only slight chance
PoPs. As the upper wave edges across the state later tonight into early
Friday, rain chances will increase across the northeast and far
eastern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Low pressure will track into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
taking the strongest forcing further east out of the area. Will
continue likely PoPs along/east of I-57 during the morning hours,
with rain chances diminishing across the board as the day
progresses. Models remain in poor agreement this weekend, with the
GFS suggesting scattered showers/thunder both Saturday and Sunday
as region remains within a band of sheared vorticity aloft. ECMWF
is mostly dry, with surface high pressure building southward from
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and lingering frontal boundary well
to the south. Think GFS is being too aggressive with convective
development, particularly in the absence of meaningful forcing, so
have trended toward the drier ECMWF. As a result, have gone dry
for both Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the lower 80s.
After that, a series of weak upper waves will once again dig a
significant trough over eastern Canada/Great Lakes by the middle
of next week. First wave and associated frontal boundary will
swing through Illinois on Monday, accompanied by widely scattered
thunder. Second wave will arrive on Tuesday. After that, high
pressure will resume control of the weather across central
Illinois, allowing a cooler/drier air mass to arrive by next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Forecast challenges this period include precip coverage across the
forecast area and affect on cigs/vsbys. Band of rain has shifted
northeast to a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line with the northern
edge mainly sprinkles out of a mid deck, while south of SPI,
steadier rains has brought the cigs down to MVFR and even some local
IFR cigs were reported over the past hour. May have to include some
tempo MVFR cigs at SPI this morning with the steadier rains holding
over that site, but further to the east and north, with a drier air
mass in place, cigs may have a tough time dropping to MVFR range
today. Best threat for thunder appears to be at SPI, at least for
today with most areas seeing at least VCTS tonight. With better
moisture transport further north late today and tonight, would
think most areas will see MVFR cigs, except for BMI and CMI. Surface
winds will be from an easterly direction thru the period with speeds
of 10 to 15 kts today and from 6 to 11 kts tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1218 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS AREA INTERSECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING IOWA AS IT IS FEEDING THE STORMS IN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL IT
GET. LATEST PROGS BARELY LIFT IT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THUS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SOME WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING OVER IOWA TODAY THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST.
AS FOR QPF...THE 06Z NAM WAS BETTER AT WITH ITS QPF FORECAST THAN
THE 00Z RUN BUT IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TOO MUCH TO THE FORCING AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE HEAVIER PRECIP WAS TIED MORE THE TO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE HOPWRF ALSO WAS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH ON PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR...WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIP...SHOWED THE PRECIP TIED TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY IN MO WITH SCT PRECIP MORE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. I LIKED THE HRRR THE BEST AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BUT DID BLEND POPS WITH THE HOPWRF AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERN
IOWA WAS SPARED FROM PRECIP YESTERDAY IN LARGE PART FROM THE HIGH
PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID PUT A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWEST IN THIS AREA.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH A FAIR PART OF THE MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
GENERALLY DROPPED HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND KEPT THE
NORTHEAST WARMER PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS...LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
FORCING WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING
WHERE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. HOWEVER...THE FORCING
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF IOWA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDING TO THE NORTH. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RELATIVELY LOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DESPITE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME...FORCING WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE
BULK OF FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY AFTER MONDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NW FROM SFC LOW IN NRN MO WILL HELP KEEP IFR/LIFR LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
AT ALL BUT THE KALO AND KMCW TERMINALS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP VSBYS AND CIGS LOW. CONDS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
653 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS AREA INTERSECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING IOWA AS IT IS FEEDING THE STORMS IN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL IT
GET. LATEST PROGS BARELY LIFT IT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THUS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SOME WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING OVER IOWA TODAY THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST.
AS FOR QPF...THE 06Z NAM WAS BETTER AT WITH ITS QPF FORECAST THAN
THE 00Z RUN BUT IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TOO MUCH TO THE FORCING AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE HEAVIER PRECIP WAS TIED MORE THE TO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE HOPWRF ALSO WAS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH ON PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR...WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIP...SHOWED THE PRECIP TIED TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY IN MO WITH SCT PRECIP MORE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. I LIKED THE HRRR THE BEST AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BUT DID BLEND POPS WITH THE HOPWRF AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERN
IOWA WAS SPARED FROM PRECIP YESTERDAY IN LARGE PART FROM THE HIGH
PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID PUT A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWEST IN THIS AREA.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH A FAIR PART OF THE MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
GENERALLY DROPPED HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND KEPT THE
NORTHEAST WARMER PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS...LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
FORCING WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING
WHERE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. HOWEVER...THE FORCING
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF IOWA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDING TO THE NORTH. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RELATIVELY LOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DESPITE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME...FORCING WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE
BULK OF FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY AFTER MONDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/12Z
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NRN/CEN MO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE ENE THROUGH THE FCST PD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FCST PD SO IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST MAINLY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE PRECIP WANES. THE LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT WHICH
WILL LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS AREA INTERSECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING IOWA AS IT IS FEEDING THE STORMS IN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL IT
GET. LATEST PROGS BARELY LIFT IT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THUS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SOME WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING OVER IOWA TODAY THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST.
AS FOR QPF...THE 06Z NAM WAS BETTER AT WITH ITS QPF FORECAST THAN
THE 00Z RUN BUT IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TOO MUCH TO THE FORCING AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE HEAVIER PRECIP WAS TIED MORE THE TO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE HOPWRF ALSO WAS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH ON PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR...WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIP...SHOWED THE PRECIP TIED TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY IN MO WITH SCT PRECIP MORE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. I LIKED THE HRRR THE BEST AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BUT DID BLEND POPS WITH THE HOPWRF AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERN
IOWA WAS SPARED FROM PRECIP YESTERDAY IN LARGE PART FROM THE HIGH
PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID PUT A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWEST IN THIS AREA.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH A FAIR PART OF THE MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
GENERALLY DROPPED HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND KEPT THE
NORTHEAST WARMER PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS...LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
FORCING WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING
WHERE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. HOWEVER...THE FORCING
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF IOWA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDING TO THE NORTH. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RELATIVELY LOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DESPITE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME...FORCING WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE
BULK OF FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY AFTER MONDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. IOWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL FORECAST GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS...BUT KEPT THEM
VICINITY AS OPPOSED TO PUTTING THEM DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. TWO SHORTWAVES...PRESENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL KS...WILL HELP
PROVIDE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN. LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND POINT INTO IA...PROVIDING AMPLE
MOISTURE. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE 2.0 IN RANGE...WHICH
AGAIN WILL BE AROUND +2 SD VS CLIMO. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL APPROACH
THE 12 KFT RANGE. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS DO TEND TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...MORE SO THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND RESULTING
RAINFALL. THE NAM IS THE WETTEST AND BRINGS A RIBBON OF FORCING
ALONG WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT AS INTENSE THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE
TENDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TONIGHT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF IA HWY 92.
WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IA COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF 92...GIVEN LAST NIGHT/S
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
THERE...CONFIDENCE IS AROUND THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD WHICH
WOULD BE THE LOW-END FLASH FLOOD WATCH CRITERIA.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL BUT
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
THIS AFTN IN SW IA...WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MINIMAL HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SHORTER TERM WITH
EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY SFC SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MO AND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THETAE AXIS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO
FEED THIS AREA WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING. MODELS HAVENT
QUITE REACHED A CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHEAST US.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH THE H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE EURO/GFS/NAM HIT THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FOCUSED BETWEEN 12-18Z USING A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH TRACK OF THE H850 LOW. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH MESO HRRR AND NMM MODELS. CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING FAIRLY WELL WITH ALL MODELS BUT WITH EXPECTED
MESO CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MO THIS EVENING...TRACK
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
AND CLOSER TO THE HRRR/NMM. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THAT SOLUTION
...IN LINE WITH WPC AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH DURING THE
EVENING SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS FARTHER NORTH. ANY
DEVIATION NORTH WOULD RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BEING HIGHER IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHEARED OUT
AND WEAKENS...AND HANGS ON INTO FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTH. ALREADY INTO THE WEEKEND NOW SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GREAT LAKES HIGH NOW BEING MODELED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND IS NOW TRENDING TO KEEP AREA DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE REDUCED POP CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS...
BUT HAVE NOT CUT OUT YET DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND CONSENSUS
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT THIS POINT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
TONIGHTS MODEL PACKAGES...THEN FURTHER REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY SOME MODERATION IS
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
RISK FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK....LESSENING CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. SOME HINT AT RETURN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. IOWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL FORECAST GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS...BUT KEPT THEM
VICINITY AS OPPOSED TO PUTTING THEM DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THURSDAY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE STATE.
URBAN AREAS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING
ISSUES AS MOST RURAL LOCATIONS HAVE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
MINIMAL RISES ARE ANTICIPATED ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-CLARKE-
DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-RINGGOLD-UNION-WAYNE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
The MCV that moved across the forecast area has moved into MO along
with the threat for showers in far east central KS. Surface heating
has revealed the low-level moisture as a cumulus field which
stretches from southeast to north central KS. A few of the high res
models are suggesting isolated showers forming in this area and
gradually moving eastward. Soundings show that the cap has weakened
and any local low-level convergence may be enough to support this
development. Therefore slight chances increase in the southwest
portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Shortly
after sunset the activity if any should begin to dissipate as the
cap and inversion increases. The models are also hinting at a
thunderstorm complex moving into the north central KS from the
northwest. The storms appear to weaken as they progress southward
into a less favorable environment. Not sure how much isentropic lift
will take place tonight that would support additional precip north
of a surface boundary which stretches through central KS. A
shortwave is forecast to move eastward over SD and NE, although it
will pass north of our area. Confidence is low regarding the precip
chances tonight. Models show that patchy fog will be possible as the
inversion forms and all the low-level moisture in place. The
favorable locations will likely experience dense fog at times
especially around sunrise. Have gone with a mostly dry forecast for
tomorrow with the exception slight chances across portions of
central KS for any lingering showers in the morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Model guidance is coming into better agreement on a stout, upper
shortwave trough as it currently enters the Pacific northwest coast.
The wave is expected to round the upper ridge and deepen towards the
southeast as it encounters deeper moisture in place over the region.
Decent mid level frontogenesis increases after midnight Saturday
night as showers and thunderstorms are progged to develop over south
central NE and shift over north central and northeast Kansas. The
convective cluster is expected to maintain lift along a slow moving
cold front as it continues southward through the CWA on Sunday.
Increased confidence in guidance lead to likely precip chances
through Sunday afternoon before the system exits Sunday evening.
Wind shear up to 6 Km around 35 kts and surface instability near
2000 J/KG could produce a few stronger storms Sunday afternoon,
especially in east central KS near the boundary.
Subsidence spreads into the region Monday, allowing for stable
conditions to return to the area. Outside chance a passing shortwave
trough over the upper Midwest may impact portions of far northeast
KS during the afternoon Monday, however confidence was too low for
slight chance precip mention at this time.
Upper ridge amplifies over the west central conus through Wednesday
leaving dry and less humid conditions throughout the region. Light
northerly to easterly winds advect cooler high temps down into the
lower 80s with mostly sunny skies.
Next shortwave trough deepening over Alberta, Canada will return
chances for thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. Extended
models are hinting at another unsettled period through Friday as a
series of embedded waves extend from the main trough axis into the
central plains. Highs remain cool in the lower 80s with overnight
lows in the low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR conditions at 00Z expected to transition to MVFR, IFR/LIFR vsbys
and cigs after 08Z. Low level moisture is shallow in RAP and NAM
soundings and expect the fog to mix out after 14Z. VFR conditions
are expected after 14Z through the end of the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A TROUGH IS MOVING ON SHORE TODAY ON THE WESTERN COAST WITH MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MAIN SYSTEMS BOTH THE CURRENT HIGH AND PROGRESSING TROUGH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SITUATED AND EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THESE RIPPLES ARE OFFSET
AND ALMOST DOING THEIR OWN THING. A MESSY PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES GIVEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REACHING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CHANCES MAINLY REACHING
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WIDER AREA OF EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR GIVEN ITS DECENT FORECAST SUCCESS WITH THE
ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT...WAS UTILIZED FOR ASSISTANCE IN
ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL STUFF WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LESS SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY THAN LAST NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE SHEAR AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS WERE ALTERED AND WILL VERY WELL BE TWEAKED
WITH EACH FORECAST GIVEN THE ATTEMPTS OF THE MODELS TO GET A
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JUANITA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A RIDGE IS SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
RESPECTIVE FEATURES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING AN IMPACT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL AND RESPECTIVE RUN THAT ONE WOULD LIKE TO CONSIDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.
JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KS TO CENTRAL MO WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN OK BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL. ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATE THIS PM/EVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF ICT
AND CNU TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
PM/EVE...MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
APPROACH AS FAR EAST AS RSL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER EAST...GIVEN MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
RSL. IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT RSL...SLN...AND
CNU.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 89 69 92 / 30 20 40 20
HUTCHINSON 69 87 68 91 / 30 30 40 20
NEWTON 68 87 68 90 / 30 30 40 20
ELDORADO 69 88 68 90 / 30 30 40 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 91 70 92 / 20 20 40 30
RUSSELL 68 85 67 89 / 50 30 50 20
GREAT BEND 68 86 67 89 / 50 30 50 20
SALINA 68 87 67 91 / 30 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 68 86 67 90 / 30 30 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 90 70 91 / 20 20 30 30
CHANUTE 69 87 68 90 / 20 30 30 30
IOLA 67 86 68 89 / 20 30 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 69 91 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
218 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ACTING ON AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
HAS ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND USED IT AS
A BASIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT THIS COMPLEX WILL
DO TO ONSET OF STRATUS AND FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TODAY...BUT OVERALL RISING
HEIGHTS AND DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST AND
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS MAXIMIZED EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP LATE...LINGERING INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BEST
IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
BROAD H5/H7 UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN FLATTENING TO MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS DO SUPPORT A FEW SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE H7
RIDGE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY LEE-SIDE TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. BASED ON MODEL MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH...PLACEMENT OF THE
700 MB SHORTWAVES WILL FOCUS MORE AREAL COVERAGE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...TAPERING DOWN AS WEEK PROGRESSES DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO WORK EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE
TROUGH WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE TO 60-65 DEWPOINTS TO OUR EAST AND
45-55 DEWPOINTS WEST. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS IN LATEST GFS VERSUS
ECMWF SO WILL TAKE BLEND. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TAP FOR THE AREA
AS A RESULT OF HIGH DEWPOINTS IN AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER WESTERN ZONES...AND 65-70F FOR
EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS
AND FOG BUT DISAGREE. THIS IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY AN INTENSE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SOON AFFECT THE KMCK TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AT KMCK BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KMCK UNTIL MID MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD UNTIL MID MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. SO FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST DURING THAT
TIME. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1203 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ACTING ON AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
HAS ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND USED IT AS
A BASIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT THIS COMPLEX WILL
DO TO ONSET OF STRATUS AND FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TODAY...BUT OVERALL RISING
HEIGHTS AND DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST AND
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS MAXIMIZED EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP LATE...LINGERING INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BEST
IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(POSSIBLY AS AN MCS) WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE
STRONGEST. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE REACHES FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND PERHAPS ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN KANSAS BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE
AREA AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL PREFERENCE. FOR NOW HAVE IT
DRY FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA/UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW OR ITS REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST PUSHING
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY
EVERY DAY. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AROUND 90 TUESDAY THEN MID/UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH AROUND 90/LOW 90S EAST OF THE STATE LINE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS
AND FOG BUT DISAGREE. THIS IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY AN INTENSE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SOON AFFECT THE KMCK TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AT KMCK BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KMCK UNTIL MID MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD UNTIL MID MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. SO FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST DURING THAT
TIME. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1105 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THIS ENTAILED MAINLY TAKING THEM DOWN IN THE NEAR TERM PER
THE HRRR AND ADJUSTING THE FOG WITH INCREASED CONCERNS FOR DENSE
PATCHES LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO MATCHED UP THE T/TD GRIDS WITH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WHERE IT IS HELPING TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE DRIFTING EAST INTO THE JKL CWA. ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST OUT HERE...AHEAD
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. OUR VERY DAMP ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAINING OF
THESE CELLS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SO FAR...MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN SPARED SUBSTANTIAL RAINS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A HALF AN
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PLACES...ONE EAST OF JACKSON
AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...THAT WILL
NEED EXTRA SCRUTINY OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES
FALLING EARLIER IN THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO TIME THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND MELD IT INTO A GENERALLY WET FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12.
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INTO DAWN BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF AN
UPDATED ZFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A VERY SLOWLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY TOMORROW EVENING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL
BE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE
IN AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOMETIMES WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
AREAS THAT SAY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY...HOWEVER THIS IS OVER
RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER THE SAME
AREAS EFFECTED EARLIER...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
AS A THUNDERSTORM MOVES IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT AREAS OF
DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN TRANSITION TO A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EVENTUALLY
EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD AS A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS COMBINATION FORMS A DEVELOPING STAGNANT PATTERN AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED OR EVEN BLOCKING PATTERN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE STATUS OF THE CONVECTION. DO
EXPECT A GENERAL LOWERING OF THE CIGS AND VIS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL BE SUBJECT TO TIMES OF MVFR OR WORSE AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND STREAM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
825 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WHERE IT IS HELPING TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE DRIFTING EAST INTO THE JKL CWA. ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST OUT HERE...AHEAD
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. OUR VERY DAMP ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAINING OF
THESE CELLS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SO FAR...MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN SPARED SUBSTANTIAL RAINS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A HALF AN
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PLACES...ONE EAST OF JACKSON
AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...THAT WILL
NEED EXTRA SCRUTINY OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES
FALLING EARLIER IN THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO TIME THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND MELD IT INTO A GENERALLY WET FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12.
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INTO DAWN BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF AN
UPDATED ZFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A VERY SLOWLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY TOMORROW EVENING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL
BE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE
IN AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOMETIMES WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
AREAS THAT SAY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY...HOWEVER THIS IS OVER
RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER THE SAME
AREAS EFFECTED EARLIER...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
AS A THUNDERSTORM MOVES IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT AREAS OF
DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN TRANSITION TO A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EVENTUALLY
EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD AS A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS COMBINATION FORMS A DEVELOPING STAGNANT PATTERN AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED OR EVEN BLOCKING PATTERN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE STATUS OF THE CONVECTION. DO
EXPECT A GENERAL LOWERING OF THE CIGS AND VIS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL BE SUBJECT TO TIMES OF MVFR OR WORSE AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND STREAM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Quick update to the forecast this morning to account for the latest
trends. As expected, the band of showers over southern IN has
weakened over the past hour or so and should continue to do so
through the remainder of the morning hours. Therefore, have trimmed
pops back a bit for the rest of the morning hours. Also brought the
forecast more in line with current obs.
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Continue to see rain showers north of a frontal boundary, stretching
from central Illinois southeast to KOWB and with very light showers
continuing southeast into our forecast area. Latest HRRR insists
that these showers will dissipate over the next hour or two. Have a
couple of areas of focus for additional development late this
morning and through the afternoon hours. One will be north of the
current band`s axis and the other will be over western KY. Still a
question if lightning will occur with the cells near Louisville.
Forecast soundings show the best instability above 700 mb, so any
cells that develop would be elevated. Cannot rule out one or two
strikes, so have put in isolated storms for the afternoon. Still
think the more strikes will occur with storms that develop in the
more unstable airmass over our southwest forecast area.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Early this morning a frontal boundary lies over the TN Valley. Some
weak lift north of this front is resulting in a thin line of
scattered showers from roughly KSTL TO KOWB. The GFS has this thin
band bringing shower chances into the Louisville Metro throughout
the day. Will go more optimistic than that as we should see a narrow
ridge aloft stabilizing the atmosphere by this afternoon. As for the
rest of the forecast area, still looks like the best chance for
thunderstorms will reside west of the I-65 corridor and closer to
the front to our south.
This front will start lifting north as a warm front late tonight.
Combine that surface forcing with an upper disturbance, now over
Missouri, closer to the region as well as increasing precipitable
waters should make for better rain chances late Thursday night.
Storms look likely areawide for Friday as the warm front stalls
somewhere over southern Indiana and low pressure rides up the lower
Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals through Friday should average around an
inch, with the highest amounts in our far western forecast area.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Friday Night - Saturday...
Wet conditions look to continue Friday night and Saturday as a weak
area of low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley,
interacting with a moist airmass. Will continue mention of scattered
to numerous showers during these two periods. Best focus looks to be
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA Friday night, and across
the southeastern half on Saturday, although everyone has a pretty
decent shot at getting in on the action. PWATs look to still be
around or just below 2 inches through the column so expect the main
threat with any shower or storm to be heavy rain. Cloud to ground
lightning will also be a main concern for outdoor activities. Expect
mild overnight lows on Friday night in the upper 60s in low 70s.
Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection, but low and mid
80s look reasonable.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Shallow and weak NW flow aloft will remain in control of the area as
we end the weekend, meanwhile a weak surface low will meander slowly
just east of the area. This will keep the focus for shower and storm
activity mainly east of I-65, although cannot rule out an isolated
shower over the CWA on Saturday night and Sunday. Coverage, mainly
showers, should be isolated to widely scattered at best over the
Bluegrass during this time. Look for lows each night mainly in the
upper 60s. A nice temperature gradient looks to set up for highs on
Sunday with upper 80s SW to around 80 in our NE.
Monday - Wednesday...
An upper ridge will build more solidly over the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an impulse will dive
across the Great Lakes and combine with the weak low pressure just
to our NE, helping to amplify a trough over the eastern CONUS. The
Ohio Valley will find itself in the increasing NW flow aloft between
these two features for the first half of next week. This will leave
us in a drier overall pattern, however will likely have to deal with
more diurnally driven convection, and/or any convection that may
fire in response to passing waves embedded in the flow. Have
depicted the best chances for isolated to scattered storm chances
across our SE half of the CWA, with a drier atmosphere anticipated
over our NW closer to a surface high.
Model data supports a warm up in temperatures for the first half of
the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Have nudged the forecast
closer to the upper 80s and low 90s for the SW half of the forecast
area closer to the upper ridge. Being careful to not get too
aggressive as some of the rainfall advertised leading up to this
time period, could limit our heating efficiency just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon into this evening,
before some deteriorating conditions approach early Friday morning
through the rest of the TAF period. For the remainder of this
afternoon, generally dry conditions should prevail. There is a
chance of a stray shower or storm near KBWG, thus will continue
with a brief period of VCTS mention there. Otherwise, expect some
diurnal cu along with increasing mid and high clouds.
Showers and a few embedded storms will increase in coverage tonight
as deep moisture pushes into the region. Have tried to time the
best coverage of precip into terminals with -SHRA wording. There
may be some thunderstorms as well, but confidence is not high enough
in storm coverage to include VCTS wording. Conditions could drop to
MVFR in the heavier showers, but should generally remain VFR outside
of any precip.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
855 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Quick update to the forecast this morning to account for the latest
trends. As expected, the band of showers over southern IN has
weakened over the past hour or so and should continue to do so
through the remainder of the morning hours. Therefore, have trimmed
pops back a bit for the rest of the morning hours. Also brought the
forecast more in line with current obs.
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Continue to see rain showers north of a frontal boundary, stretching
from central Illinois southeast to KOWB and with very light showers
continuing southeast into our forecast area. Latest HRRR insists
that these showers will dissipate over the next hour or two. Have a
couple of areas of focus for additional development late this
morning and through the afternoon hours. One will be north of the
current band`s axis and the other will be over western KY. Still a
question if lightning will occur with the cells near Louisville.
Forecast soundings show the best instability above 700 mb, so any
cells that develop would be elevated. Cannot rule out one or two
strikes, so have put in isolated storms for the afternoon. Still
think the more strikes will occur with storms that develop in the
more unstable airmass over our southwest forecast area.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Early this morning a frontal boundary lies over the TN Valley. Some
weak lift north of this front is resulting in a thin line of
scattered showers from roughly KSTL TO KOWB. The GFS has this thin
band bringing shower chances into the Louisville Metro throughout
the day. Will go more optimistic than that as we should see a narrow
ridge aloft stabilizing the atmosphere by this afternoon. As for the
rest of the forecast area, still looks like the best chance for
thunderstorms will reside west of the I-65 corridor and closer to
the front to our south.
This front will start lifting north as a warm front late tonight.
Combine that surface forcing with an upper disturbance, now over
Missouri, closer to the region as well as increasing precipitable
waters should make for better rain chances late Thursday night.
Storms look likely areawide for Friday as the warm front stalls
somewhere over southern Indiana and low pressure rides up the lower
Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals through Friday should average around an
inch, with the highest amounts in our far western forecast area.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Friday Night - Saturday...
Wet conditions look to continue Friday night and Saturday as a weak
area of low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley,
interacting with a moist airmass. Will continue mention of scattered
to numerous showers during these two periods. Best focus looks to be
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA Friday night, and across
the southeastern half on Saturday, although everyone has a pretty
decent shot at getting in on the action. PWATs look to still be
around or just below 2 inches through the column so expect the main
threat with any shower or storm to be heavy rain. Cloud to ground
lightning will also be a main concern for outdoor activities. Expect
mild overnight lows on Friday night in the upper 60s in low 70s.
Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection, but low and mid
80s look reasonable.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Shallow and weak NW flow aloft will remain in control of the area as
we end the weekend, meanwhile a weak surface low will meander slowly
just east of the area. This will keep the focus for shower and storm
activity mainly east of I-65, although cannot rule out an isolated
shower over the CWA on Saturday night and Sunday. Coverage mainly
showers should be isolated to widely scattered at best over the
Bluegrass during this time. Look for lows each night mainly in the
upper 60s. A nice temperature gradient looks to set up for highs on
Sunday with upper 80s SW to around 80 in our NE.
Monday - Wednesday...
An upper ridge will build more solidly over the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an impulse will dive
across the Great Lakes and combine with the weak low pressure just
to our NE, helping to amplify a trough over the eastern CONUS. The
Ohio Valley will find itself in the increasing NW flow aloft between
these two features for the first half of next week. This will leave
us in a drier overall pattern, however will likely have to deal with
more diurnally driven convection, and/or any convection that may
fire in response to passing waves embedded in the flow. Have
depicted the best chances for isolated to scattered storm chances
across our SE half of the CWA, with a drier atmosphere anticipated
over our NW closer to a surface high.
Model data supports a warm up in temperatures for the first half of
the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Have nudged the forecast
closer to the upper 80s and low 90s for the SW half of the forecast
area closer to the upper ridge. Being careful to get too aggressive
as some of the rainfall advertised leading up to this time period,
could limit our heating efficiency just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Clouds actually have broken up some over KBWG, leading to lower vsby
down there that at the other sites, where mid/upper clouds are
thicker. Have removed tempo groups for the other sites and put one
in for a few hours at KBWG.
Increasing moisture may be enough for some widely scattered showers
and storms, with the best chance over KBWG late this afternoon. A
few models are showing a narrow band of isolated showers/storms
closer to KSDF in the afternoon. Only have enough confidence to put
in some storms over KBWG late this afternoon, and will monitor
trends to see if we need to put this in for KSDF or not. The system
driving the storms this morning over Missouri will be closer to us
late tonight. Thus we will have a better chance for some rains late
in the period for KSDF and KBWG.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Continue to see rain showers north of a frontal boundary, stretching
from central Illinois southeast to KOWB and with very light showers
continuing southeast into our forecast area. Latest HRRR insists
that these showers will dissipate over the next hour or two. Have a
couple of areas of focus for additional development late this
morning and through the afternoon hours. One will be north of the
current band`s axis and the other will be over western KY. Still a
question if lightning will occur with the cells near Louisville.
Forecast soundings show the best instability above 700 mb, so any
cells that develop would be elevated. Cannot rule out one or two
strikes, so have put in isolated storms for the afternoon. Still
think the more strikes will occur with storms that develop in the
more unstable airmass over our southwest forecast area.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Early this morning a frontal boundary lies over the TN Valley. Some
weak lift north of this front is resulting in a thin line of
scattered showers from roughly KSTL TO KOWB. The GFS has this thin
band bringing shower chances into the Louisville Metro throughout
the day. Will go more optimistic than that as we should see a narrow
ridge aloft stabilizing the atmosphere by this afternoon. As for the
rest of the forecast area, still looks like the best chance for
thunderstorms will reside west of the I-65 corridor and closer to
the front to our south.
This front will start lifting north as a warm front late tonight.
Combine that surface forcing with an upper disturbance, now over
Missouri, closer to the region as well as increasing precipitable
waters should make for better rain chances late Thursday night.
Storms look likely areawide for Friday as the warm front stalls
somewhere over southern Indiana and low pressure rides up the lower
Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals through Friday should average around an
inch, with the highest amounts in our far western forecast area.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Friday Night - Saturday...
Wet conditions look to continue Friday night and Saturday as a weak
area of low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley,
interacting with a moist airmass. Will continue mention of scattered
to numerous showers during these two periods. Best focus looks to be
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA Friday night, and across
the southeastern half on Saturday, although everyone has a pretty
decent shot at getting in on the action. PWATs look to still be
around or just below 2 inches through the column so expect the main
threat with any shower or storm to be heavy rain. Cloud to ground
lightning will also be a main concern for outdoor activities. Expect
mild overnight lows on Friday night in the upper 60s in low 70s.
Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection, but low and mid
80s look reasonable.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Shallow and weak NW flow aloft will remain in control of the area as
we end the weekend, meanwhile a weak surface low will meander slowly
just east of the area. This will keep the focus for shower and storm
activity mainly east of I-65, although cannot rule out an isolated
shower over the CWA on Saturday night and Sunday. Coverage mainly
showers should be isolated to widely scattered at best over the
Bluegrass during this time. Look for lows each night mainly in the
upper 60s. A nice temperature gradient looks to set up for highs on
Sunday with upper 80s SW to around 80 in our NE.
Monday - Wednesday...
An upper ridge will build more solidly over the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an impulse will dive
across the Great Lakes and combine with the weak low pressure just
to our NE, helping to amplify a trough over the eastern CONUS. The
Ohio Valley will find itself in the increasing NW flow aloft between
these two features for the first half of next week. This will leave
us in a drier overall pattern, however will likely have to deal with
more diurnally driven convection, and/or any convection that may
fire in response to passing waves embedded in the flow. Have
depicted the best chances for isolated to scattered storm chances
across our SE half of the CWA, with a drier atmosphere anticipated
over our NW closer to a surface high.
Model data supports a warm up in temperatures for the first half of
the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Have nudged the forecast
closer to the upper 80s and low 90s for the SW half of the forecast
area closer to the upper ridge. Being careful to get too aggressive
as some of the rainfall advertised leading up to this time period,
could limit our heating efficiency just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Clouds actually have broken up some over KBWG, leading to lower vsby
down there that at the other sites, where mid/upper clouds are
thicker. Have removed tempo groups for the other sites and put one
in for a few hours at KBWG.
Increasing moisture may be enough for some widely scattered showers
and storms, with the best chance over KBWG late this afternoon. A
few models are showing a narrow band of isolated showers/storms
closer to KSDF in the afternoon. Only have enough confidence to put
in some storms over KBWG late this afternoon, and will monitor
trends to see if we need to put this in for KSDF or not. The system
driving the storms this morning over Missouri will be closer to us
late tonight. Thus we will have a better chance for some rains late
in the period for KSDF and KBWG.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1138 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:40 PM UPDATE...TEMPS WERE RAISED ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TONIGHT
WHERE A NORTH BREEZE IS KEEPING THE AIR MIXED. A STRAY SHOWER IS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS HAVE
TAPERED OFF. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NORTHERLY BREEZE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DIMINUTION OF CVRG OF SHWRS/TSTMS
PROGRESSING SWRD FROM FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR
REF SHOWS THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EVE HRS. SO WE USED THE TM
FUNCTION TO MOVE AHEAD THE END TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS 2-3 HRS SOONER
THIS EVE THAN THE LAST FCST UPDATE...BUT NOT TO FAST TO TRUNCATE
CURRENT CVRG IN LEGACY ZONE WORDING...SPCLY CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS. OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD CLR OVR MOST OF THE FA LATER
TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS ERN PTNS BORDERING NB PROV...WERE PTLY CLDY
SKIES AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY HANG ON DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT IN
THE VICINITY TO PTNS OF THE FA THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL FROM
THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT NRLY GRADIENT BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR FOG TO MATERIALIZE...SO HELD OFF MENTIONING IN GRIDS FOR
LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT MORN FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FA ON SAT...WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY HI ALF DIGGING SE OVR THE
FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EWRD DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVR THE
MARITIMES BY SAT AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTN CLDNSS AND
SCT SHWRS MSLY OVR NE CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WITH FCST
AFTN MAX SBCAPE XPCTD TO BE LESS (MSLY LESS THAN 500J/KG) SAT AFTN
THAN THIS CURRENT AFTN...FOR NOW WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING WITH GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT POPS. WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE XPCTD...AFTN HI TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
WARMER THAN THIS AFTN...SPCLY OVR LOWER WRN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 80. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINE TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW WITH REGION BACK IN WARM
SECTOR AND DECENT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP THIS POINT.
LESS AGREEMENT CREEPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT OFF NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
WE GO INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME MORE ON THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING MOST
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE
THINKING 06Z SOLUTION IS FAST. THE MODEL BLEND WILL PUT SOME
WEIGHT TOWARD THE WPC GRID WHICH WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. THEREFORE USING THIS APPROACH WILL NOT BRING PRECIP IN
QUITE AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUSION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A RESULT WILL KEEP REGION
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM AND TRAILING OFF INTO
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN AN REMNANT TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHWRS THRU ERLY EVE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR OVRNGT
INTO SAT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH
WINDS AND WV WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. DUE TO THE SIG REMNANT SWELL
COMPONENT TO THE TOTAL WV HTS...WE STAYED CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR OUTER MZS AND AND
LESS ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
920 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE... ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN MORE AS WELL AS THE SKY
CONDITIONS SHOWING SOME CLEARING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DIMINUTION OF CVRG OF SHWRS/TSTMS
PROGRESSING SWRD FROM FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR
REF SHOWS THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EVE HRS. SO WE USED THE TM
FUNCTION TO MOVE AHEAD THE END TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS 2-3 HRS SOONER
THIS EVE THAN THE LAST FCST UPDATE...BUT NOT TO FAST TO TRUNCATE
CURRENT CVRG IN LEGACY ZONE WORDING...SPCLY CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS. OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD CLR OVR MOST OF THE FA LATER
TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS ERN PTNS BORDERING NB PROV...WERE PTLY CLDY
SKIES AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY HANG ON DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT IN
THE VICINITY TO PTNS OF THE FA THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL FROM
THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT NRLY GRADIENT BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR FOG TO MATERIALIZE...SO HELD OFF MENTIONING IN GRIDS FOR
LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT MORN FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FA ON SAT...WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY HI ALF DIGGING SE OVR THE
FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EWRD DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVR THE
MARITIMES BY SAT AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTN CLDNSS AND
SCT SHWRS MSLY OVR NE CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WITH FCST
AFTN MAX SBCAPE XPCTD TO BE LESS (MSLY LESS THAN 500J/KG) SAT AFTN
THAN THIS CURRENT AFTN...FOR NOW WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING WITH GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT POPS. WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE XPCTD...AFTN HI TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
WARMER THAN THIS AFTN...SPCLY OVR LOWER WRN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 80. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINE TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW WITH REGION BACK IN WARM
SECTOR AND DECENT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP THIS POINT.
LESS AGREEMENT CREEPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT OFF NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
WE GO INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME MORE ON THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING MOST
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE
THINKING 06Z SOLUTION IS FAST. THE MODEL BLEND WILL PUT SOME
WEIGHT TOWARD THE WPC GRID WHICH WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. THEREFORE USING THIS APPROACH WILL NOT BRING PRECIP IN
QUITE AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUSION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A RESULT WILL KEEP REGION
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM AND TRAILING OFF INTO
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN AN REMNANT TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHWRS THRU ERLY EVE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR OVRNGT
INTO SAT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH
WINDS AND WV WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. DUE TO THE SIG REMNANT SWELL
COMPONENT TO THE TOTAL WV HTS...WE STAYED CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR OUTER MZS AND AND
LESS ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING. PERSISTENCE IS THE
WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE VERY MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH HEADS SOUTHEAST 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z TUE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THU. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MON INTO TUE AND
THEN DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PUSHING IN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNDER THE
RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW DEEP LAYER
1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS HAS ALLOWED BOTH SOIL AND VEGETATION TO
BECOME DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HAVE KEPT LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR 13C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 14C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 850 THETA E
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER
MI AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER
FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV ALONG WITH
1000-500MB RH. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY ABUNDANT THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE POPS
RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING MOISTURE
NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PUSHING IN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNDER THE
RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW DEEP LAYER
1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS HAS ALLOWED BOTH SOIL AND VEGETATION TO
BECOME DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HAVE KEPT LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR 13C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 14C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 850 THETA E
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER
MI AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER
FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV ALONG WITH
1000-500MB RH. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY ABUNDANT THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE POPS
RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING MOISTURE
NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PUSHING IN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNDER THE
RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW DEEP LAYER
1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS HAS ALLOWED BOTH SOIL AND VEGETATION TO
BECOME DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HAVE KEPT LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR 13C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 14C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 850 THETA E
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER
MI AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER
FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV ALONG WITH
1000-500MB RH. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY ABUNDANT THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE POPS
RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING MOISTURE
NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT IWD AND SAW. WITH MAINLY GROUND FOG
EXPECTED THAT MAY BE VARIABLE...CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VSBY REMAINS
MODERATE TO LOW...SO WILL KEEP 3-5MI PREDOMINANT VIS AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Tonight-Saturday:
Weak zonal flow resulting in fairly quiet weather next 30 hours. In
the very near term what`s left of a weak MCV moving into northwest MO
late is likely to generate little if any precipitation as the feature
works its way through a stable environment. Main concern is how long
stratus will linger as well as fog potential. Considering how moist
the boundary layer is plus light winds under a nocturnal inversion
believe conditions favor fog development. SREF visibility prog and
UPS fog output also support fog formation. Pockets of dense fog
certainly possible in locally favored regions. RUC and NAM
condensation pressure deficit progs also maintain low clouds over at
least northeast MO through the night.
Saturday looks rain-free with warmer temperatures, albeit still
below normal, owing to the likelihood of seeing sunshine.
Saturday night-Sunday night:
This period still holds our best chance of seeing convective
activity. The upper flow remains weak and zonal. However, the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF have shown continuity/consistency with a weak shortwave
trough coming out of the southeast WY/NE Panhandle area late Saturday
afternoon/evening. These models track the feature ese and generate a
convective complex. The southerly low level jet is not particularly
strong nor is there a frontal boundary to enhance the low-level
convergence so how long the convection holds together is still
debatable. For now, can justify increasing PoPs over the western CWA
late Saturday night and Sunday. Of interest is the ECMWF and LSX`s
local WRF models which generate a second and possible stronger area
of convection with a cold front that drags through the region late
Sunday afternoon and evening. Lacking confirmation from the NAM and
GFS prevents me from ratcheting up PoPs for this period but it does
bear watching. Heavy rainfall may need to be considered in later
forecasts once there is a better handle on the longevity of possible
MCS. Max temperatures will likely be problematic due to precipitation
and cloud cover distribution. Did trend them lower over the northern
and western CWA.
Monday-Thursday:
An old friend is about to revisit us as the upper flow transition
once again to a sharpening upper trough from the Great Lakes through
the OH Valley and the upper ridge pumping up over the Rockies. This
will leave us in northwest flow aloft as well as on the east side and
northerly winds of a surface high spreading across the central U.S.
This pattern has repeated itself several times this summer and has
resulted in much cooler than average temperatures. Models are
trending this way but look too slow/warm initially....which is
typical. So, have lowered temperatures during this period. Should be
a dry period although widely scattered convection could pop up mainly
Monday afternoon as a weak vorticity lobe drops through IA and
eastern half of MO.
Thursday night-Friday:
The Rockies upper ridge shows signs of breaking down with a possible
shortwave trough shoving east through the Central Plains. This is
enough to add in some chance PoPs as well as allow temperatures to
warm closer to seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Stratocu with bases ranging from around 1 kft in northeast MO to 4
kft in far western MO will continue to slowly push eastward and
diminish this evening. All TAF sites should see clear skies by
03-04z, likely allowing fog to develop by the 08z-10z timeframe.
Fog may be dense at times, especially at KSTJ. Fog should dissipate
by 14z Saturday, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
834 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST IN
3-HOURLY BLOCKS. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UP IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS.
AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS APPROACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AMOUNT
AND COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. ALSO FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE MORE DETAIL INTO SHOWERS
VERSUS THUNDERSTORMS AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT EXPERIENCING
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY EXPECTED PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES AND MORE LIKELY CHANCES HARBORING
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT LIKELIES IN OUR NW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THESE RATHER WELL AND SO TRENDED POPS AND
WEATHER TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WILL NEED FOR NIGHT SHIFT TO
CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR A TIME SATURDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR INCREASING WINDS. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER TO HOLD OFF AS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN
JUST SHY. NAM BUFKIT SOLUTIONS AND LATEST GFS GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE LAKE WIND CRITERIA BEING REACHED BUT AS A WHOLE GUIDANCE
IS COMING UP SHORT. DO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR NOW EXPECT NORTHERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE LAKE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS MORE
CLEARLY AS MESOSCALE MODELS CAN BETTER DEPICT THE NEAR TERM
EXPECTATIONS.
DRIER AND CONTINUED COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CWA. THE 08/12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
STARTING TO FORM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THESE
DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM ON THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. IF THE TROUGH CAN DIG DEEPLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS AND TRANSLATE FURTHER EAST A
LITTLE BIT SOONER...SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ACROSS PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN
GARFIELD. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW LARGELY STANDS. THE ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO TREND SKY WIND AND TEMPS TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A
STRONG AND LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE TUESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EXPECTING A DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA.
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES OUR CWA AND
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE FROM THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE THEIR WAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BUT COVERAGE AND
IMPACT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN
FACT...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC MODEL PERSISTS ON HOLDING ONTO A STALLED UPPER LOW
JUST ON SHORE FROM THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY QUICK
IN ADVANCING THIS LOW/TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...PULLING THE MODELS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.
EXTENDED FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW BEYOND
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN AT LEAST BE APPROACHED.
FOR NOW...CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER NEAR KGGW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING WHILE BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KOLF KSDY AND
KGDV. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS SATURDAY TO
KGGW AND KOLF DURING THE MORNING...AFTERNOON AT KSDY AND KGDV.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIMING BEST PCPN
CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING. A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER BUT MOVING OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED AROUND
500 MB WAS OVER NRN UT. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE
NOTED FROM UT INTO WY AND CO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS NOTED OVER WRN IA. KOAX SOUNDING FROM
12Z SHOWED ABOUT 1.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH DID NOT DO A PERFECT JOB
LAST EVENING...BUT WAS FAIRLY GOOD...SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD TEND TO BUILD IN
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER DRYING A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG...SO ADDED THAT. THE SPOTTY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY FROM 63 TO 66. SOME
LIGHT PCPN COULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER FRIDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND
SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN
TO MAINLY THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
THEN WENT MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT
TURNS WET TOWARD DAY 7 WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND LIFTED INDICES DROP. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
80S AND LOWS 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
VARIABLE SKY AND VSBYS. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT WESTERN AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARD
KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SWRN NEB EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ITS A LIKELY POP SITUATION AS THE H500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN WY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEB
TONIGHT. THE FCST DELAYS POPS BY 3 HOURS GIVEN THE BIAS IN MODEL
TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE QPF FORECAST.
HPC CARRIES THE BEST QPF MORE SOUTH THRU SWRN NEB THEN WRN KANSAS
BUT THE RAP AND NAM CORFIDI VECTORS FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SHOW EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE BLENDED QPF FORECAST WE
HAVE PREPARED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AND A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STALL THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAL WITH
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS MONTANA BY TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. TIMING OF THE WAVES VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE
IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
A WASH OF A WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH
ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED LATE DAY ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAKENING CAP DUE TO
PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE. THE RICH BL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING PATCHY FOG. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL /LOWER TO MID 80S/ DURING THE DAY
AND MILD OVERNIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK...FLOW BECOMES M0RE NORTHWESTERLY.
MODELS CONTINUE A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES AROUND THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THEY BECOME SPACED OUT MORE. STILL GOING TO SEE OCCASIONAL POPS
WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A
LITTLE. GUIDANCE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE SPARKS OFF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WITH FURTHER
HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...PROVIDING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK
OF A STRONG OR SEVERE TSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST WHERE WET MICROBURSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE...BUT THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE...WITH POSSIBLE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS. AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SWRN NEB EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ITS A LIKELY POP SITUATION AS THE H500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN WY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEB
TONIGHT. THE FCST DELAYS POPS BY 3 HOURS GIVEN THE BIAS IN MODEL
TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE QPF FORECAST.
HPC CARRIES THE BEST QPF MORE SOUTH THRU SWRN NEB THEN WRN KANSAS
BUT THE RAP AND NAM CORFIDI VECTORS FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SHOW EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE BLENDED QPF FORECAST WE
HAVE PREPARED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AND A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STALL THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAL WITH
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS MONTANA BY TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. TIMING OF THE WAVES VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE
IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
A WASH OF A WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH
ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED LATE DAY ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAKENING CAP DUE TO
PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE. THE RICH BL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING PATCHY FOG. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL /LOWER TO MID 80S/ DURING THE DAY
AND MILD OVERNIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK...FLOW BECOMES M0RE NORTHWESTERLY.
MODELS CONTINUE A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES AROUND THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THEY BECOME SPACED OUT MORE. STILL GOING TO SEE OCCASIONAL POPS
WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A
LITTLE. GUIDANCE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS OF THE SFC TO 3000FT WINDS SUGGESTS WEAK OR
NEUTRAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVEN SIGNS OF DIVERGENCE WHICH
WOULD INDICATE THE IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 15Z-18Z ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. KONL AND AREAS EAST MAY REMAIN IN MVFR
UNTIL MID AFTN.
TSTMS DEVELOP AND BECOME NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED.
STORM COVERAGE IS MOSTLY FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM 06Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SWRN NEB EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ITS A LIKELY POP SITUATION AS THE H500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN WY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEB
TONIGHT. THE FCST DELAYS POPS BY 3 HOURS GIVEN THE BIAS IN MODEL
TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE QPF FORECAST.
HPC CARRIES THE BEST QPF MORE SOUTH THRU SWRN NEB THEN WRN KANSAS
BUT THE RAP AND NAM CORFIDI VECTORS FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SHOW EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE BLENDED QPF FORECAST WE
HAVE PREPARED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AND A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STALL THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAL WITH
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS MONTANA BY TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. TIMING OF THE WAVES VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE
IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
A WASH OF A WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH
ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED LATE DAY ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAKENING CAP DUE TO
PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE. THE RICH BL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING PATCHY FOG. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL /LOWER TO MID 80S/ DURING THE DAY
AND MILD OVERNIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK...FLOW BECOMES M0RE NORTHWESTERLY.
MODELS CONTINUE A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES AROUND THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THEY BECOME SPACED OUT MORE. STILL GOING TO SEE OCCASIONAL POPS
WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A
LITTLE. GUIDANCE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL AFFECT THE
IML AREA UNTIL ABOUT 07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL 21Z WHEN THEY DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR
OGA AND IML).
LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN THE NORTH...OUR
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET AGL
WITH PATCHY BR/FG RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 3SM. THAT
WOULD INCLUDE VTN...ANW...ONL AND BBW. FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...THAT IS...MHN... TIF...LBF AND OGA...THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CEILING BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT PATCHY BR/FG WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1027 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REBOUND
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE OPTED TO BUMP DOWN POPS FROM LIKELY IN THE NEK TO MENTION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INSTEAD AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO LESS
INSTABILITY THAN BEFORE. ADDITIONALLY...BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
PVA LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WON`T ALIGN AS WELL WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL ( RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS -20C AT
500MB ACROSS NERN NY WITH CORE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS
DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
7.0-7.5 C/KM. THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS INDICATE THAT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VT.
LIKEWISE...SPC CALIBRATED SREF TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOW THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT BETWEEN 18-21Z TODAY
(40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THIS 3-HR PERIOD). GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE THERMAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTRIBUTING TO WBZ HEIGHTS OF ONLY 6-7 KFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED 0.25-0.50" DIAMETER HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL CAPE (50S SFC
DEWPOINTS) AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. SUNSHINE WILL BE RATHER
INTERMITTENT/LIMITED. COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB
TEMPS OF +8 TO +9C)...SHOULD HOLD AFTN HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 70S
FOR MOST SECTIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE NW AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION GENERALLY
DRIVEN BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PBL HEATING...ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET UP GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG IN
THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS 04-12Z FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. 700-500MB HEIGHTS PROGRESSIVELY
RISE FROM W-E THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STILL SOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WHERE WE/VE
KEPT A 20 POP FOR A STRAY DAYTIME SHOWER. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. P-GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING NW WINDS 5-10 MPH FROM LATE
MORNING THRU AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. 850MB TEMPS
BEGIN TO RECOVER AS WELL WITH EWD DEPARTURE OF THERMAL TROUGH.
LOOKING AT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO
NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS 04-12Z SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN (JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DOT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS). LIGHT NW WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN MODEST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-
UPR 50S. POPS NIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH DRY WARM
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C-14C SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 14C-15C. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME MAXES RANGING
FROM THE U60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO L60S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS UPPER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM MOIST S TO SW FLOW. UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NGT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV AND KBTV...BUT
CIGS WILL LIFT BY 13Z/14Z AND EXPECT GENERALLY VFR LOW AND MID
LVL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS MID-LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HRS. INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME
HEATING/SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN PSBL THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DWINDLE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. BR/FG DEVELOPMENT PSBL AFTER 05Z...ESP
AT KSLK AND KMPV.
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW TO 6-12KTS TODAY...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT TO CALM.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REBOUND
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 724 AM EDT THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL VORT CENTERED
75MI NE OF MONTREAL QUEBEC PER 11Z IR IMAGERY WILL BE THE
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LEADING
BAND OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BROUGHT PRE-DAWN
SHOWERS ACROSS VT...WHICH ARE NOW EXITING/WEAKENING ACROSS WINDSOR
COUNTY. EXPECTATION IS THAT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FORM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS AS A RESULT OF STEEP
LOW- MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT AND
INSOLATIONAL HEATING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS -20C AT 500MB
ACROSS NERN NY WITH CORE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS DEFINITELY
CHILLY FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE 7.0-7.5
C/KM. THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VT.
LIKEWISE...SPC CALIBRATED SREF TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOW THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT BETWEEN 18-21Z TODAY
(40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THIS 3-HR PERIOD). GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE THERMAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTRIBUTING TO WBZ HEIGHTS OF ONLY 6-7 KFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED 0.25-0.50" DIAMETER HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL CAPE (50S SFC
DEWPOINTS) AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. SUNSHINE WILL BE RATHER
INTERMITTENT/LIMITED. COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB
TEMPS OF +8 TO +9C)...SHOULD HOLD AFTN HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 70S
FOR MOST SECTIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE NW AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION GENERALLY DRIVEN BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND PBL HEATING...ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SET UP GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS 04-12Z FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. 700-500MB
HEIGHTS PROGRESSIVELY RISE FROM W-E THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STILL SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF
VERMONT...WHERE WE/VE KEPT A 20 POP FOR A STRAY DAYTIME SHOWER.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
P-GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING NW
WINDS 5-10 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THRU AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER AS WELL WITH EWD
DEPARTURE OF THERMAL TROUGH. LOOKING AT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO
NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS 04-12Z SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN (JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DOT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS). LIGHT NW WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EXPECTED.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN MODEST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 50S. POPS NIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH DRY WARM
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C-14C SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 14C-15C. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME MAXES RANGING
FROM THE U60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO L60S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS UPPER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM MOIST S TO SW FLOW. UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NGT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV AND KBTV...BUT
CIGS WILL LIFT BY 13Z/14Z AND EXPECT GENERALLY VFR LOW AND MID
LVL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS MID-LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HRS. INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME
HEATING/SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN PSBL THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DWINDLE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. BR/FG DEVELOPMENT PSBL AFTER 05Z...ESP
AT KSLK AND KMPV.
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW TO 6-12KTS TODAY...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT TO CALM.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
649 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL STALL ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH MARION TO JUST NORTH OF KINGSTREE.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE STALLING AT THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES SEEN IN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RADAR DATA. WE CAN EVEN SEE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF LAKE WACCAMAW BUT WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS STRUGGLING. THIS MAY BE THE HIGH LCL
VALUES AND THE STORMS ARE NEEDING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN WHAT IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOW CONVECTION A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GENERALLY THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITIES ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT BUT
THERE IS ABSOLUTE NO CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE OTHER FORCING IN THE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE HRRR IS NOT BULLISH ON CONVECTION ON
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SO HAVE A GONE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND A TAILING BAND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTION IS NOT THAT HIGH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATES 20 AND 95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS FRI MORNING...BUT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.
THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING
FRI...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
POPS WILL REMAIN LOWER ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI...
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BY 12Z SAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PCPN CHANCES AREA-WIDE. PWATS SURGE ABOVE
2.0 INCHES ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SAT AFTN AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER IMPULSES ALLOW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF 5-10 KT AT
BEST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. THIS YIELDED HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN TO MODIFY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME...A PROGRESSIVE S/W
RIDGE TO BYPASS THE FA TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
THE ILM CWA...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL GET LEFT BEHIND THRU TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVBL AS SEEN THRU MODEL SOUNDINGS. POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED HIER
THAN CLIMO ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HRS. WILL KEEP TEMPS A CAT
OR 2 BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
FOR WED THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROFFING ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE U.S. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ILM CWA...IS THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO GET THIS...STALL ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THIS BECAUSE THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THUS ELIMINATING ANY FURTHER SE PUSH
TO THE COLD FRONT. POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED ABOVE CLIMO
DUE TO THE AVBL FORCING AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AT THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE ILM FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOREST
INLAND...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WAVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
EASTERLY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE SEA BREEZE HAS HELPED BRING A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH A WEAKER WEST WIND TO THE EAST
OF THIS DENSITY CURRENT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS DO TO A LACK OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE SWELL FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM
NOW A NON- PLAYER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF WEAK BACKGROUND SE SWELL AND LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT FRI. AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SAT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS TO A SOLID 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS
MET THIS PERIOD.
HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT ONCE AGAIN THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST THRUOUT THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. OVERALL...HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE GFS
MODEL INPUT. THE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE THE EASIER OF THE 2 WIND
PARAMETERS. BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU
THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THE PROGGED SFC LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS. THAT IS WHERE THE PROGGED HIER WIND
SPEEDS WILL RESIDE. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM WATERS
WILL OCCUR AT ALMOST ANY TIME DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...MAINLY FROM
AN ESE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS COULD REACH 4 FEET OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE 4 FOOTERS WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/BJR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL STALL ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH MARION TO JUST NORTH OF KINGSTREE.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE STALLING AT THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES SEEN IN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RADAR DATA. WE CAN EVEN SEE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF LAKE WACCAMAW BUT WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS STRUGGLING. THIS MAY BE THE HIGH LCL
VALUES AND THE STORMS ARE NEEDING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN WHAT IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOW CONVECTION A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GENERALLY THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITIES ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT BUT
THERE IS ABSOLUTE NO CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE OTHER FORCING IN THE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE HRRR IS NOT BULLISH ON CONVECTION ON
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SO HAVE A GONE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND A TAILING BAND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTION IS NOT THAT HIGH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATES 20 AND 95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS FRI MORNING...BUT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.
THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING
FRI...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
POPS WILL REMAIN LOWER ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI...
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BY 12Z SAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PCPN CHANCES AREA-WIDE. PWATS SURGE ABOVE
2.0 INCHES ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SAT AFTN AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER IMPULSES ALLOW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF 5-10 KT AT
BEST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. THIS YIELDED HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN TO MODIFY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME...A PROGRESSIVE S/W
RIDGE TO BYPASS THE FA TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
THE ILM CWA...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL GET LEFT BEHIND THRU TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVBL AS SEEN THRU MODEL SOUNDINGS. POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED HIER
THAN CLIMO ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HRS. WILL KEEP TEMPS A CAT
OR 2 BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
FOR WED THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROFFING ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE U.S. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ILM CWA...IS THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO GET THIS...STALL ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THIS BECAUSE THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THUS ELIMINATING ANY FURTHER SE PUSH
TO THE COLD FRONT. POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED ABOVE CLIMO
DUE TO THE AVBL FORCING AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL BISECT THE INLAND AND COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SE-S AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND NW-N AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACTUAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES PER MOS
GUIDANCE ARE LOW...BUT FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT...AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AS DRYING INCREASES
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRBL.
MVFR VSBYS IN BR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT. KFLO/KLBT WILL HAVE A REASONABLE SHOT OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS AFTER 08Z.
VFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT KFLO/KLBT. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE ENE-ESE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE SEA BREEZE HAS HELPED BRING A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH A WEAKER WEST WIND TO THE EAST
OF THIS DENSITY CURRENT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS DO TO A LACK OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE SWELL FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM
NOW A NON- PLAYER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF WEAK BACKGROUND SE SWELL AND LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT FRI. AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SAT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS TO A SOLID 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS
MET THIS PERIOD.
HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT ONCE AGAIN THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST THRUOUT THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. OVERALL...HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE GFS
MODEL INPUT. THE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE THE EASIER OF THE 2 WIND
PARAMETERS. BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU
THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THE PROGGED SFC LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS. THAT IS WHERE THE PROGGED HIER WIND
SPEEDS WILL RESIDE. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM WATERS
WILL OCCUR AT ALMOST ANY TIME DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...MAINLY FROM
AN ESE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS COULD REACH 4 FEET OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE 4 FOOTERS WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/BJR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ON NORTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPANDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND
NORTHWEST MN. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE AREAS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY SLIPS
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE MIGHT
BE SOME RESIDUAL SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE -NON MEASURABLE - LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LATE FORM TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 TO 65.
WITH COOL AND MOIST MID LEVELS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY...DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH
A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AGAIN...WITH SOME DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SUPPORT COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WEAK H5 FLOW EARLY IN THE PD WONT HELP FOCUS ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. ON FRI NIGHT...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALL WEST OF THE JAMES...WILL PROVIDE SOME IMPETUS FOR SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE ENTIRE
CWA.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE AT H5 AND H7 BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE CWA. POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE CAT AS A COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REALLY JUST WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA.
FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY OVERALL PATTERN TURNS TO RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST. THIS LOW WILL EJECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWVS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NW FLOW OVER THE
CWA BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF TSRA EVERY OTHER DAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER WAVE/TROF APPROACHES ON WED/THURS SO HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE THEN.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MVFR AND IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA...WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST AND DRIZZLE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA INTO FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR AND COULD DROP TO IFR AGAIN TONIGHT IN
PATCHY FOG. ADDED LOWER VISIBILITY TO 2 SM FROM 09 TO 12Z IN ALL TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. NOT SEEING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
914 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND INTO ALABAMA. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRST ONE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MORE
SUBTLE ONE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WHILE AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
LATEST 00Z WRF HAS JUST STARTED TO ARRIVE AND THINK IT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AND WILL THUS LEAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TOWARDS THE HRRR SINCE IT/S PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE WRF/GFS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SEEM JUSTIFIED GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCES...ADD PATCHY FOG...AND
ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THEN WASH OUT OVER THE CWA BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE HARD TO PINPOINT MUCH MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS
OFF.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. BOTH AREAS SHOULD PUSH EAST
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 5-8 PM.
THEREAFTER...A LULL SHOULD OCCUR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM
AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL BLOSSOM AS THE WEAK FRONT INTERACTS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE OCCURRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS OF 20-30S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE
TO BASE THE FORECAST ON...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS CONSISTENCY FOR THE
UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
AND REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT FEEL SAFE LEAVING ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW...FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MKL AND TUP.
JDS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
900 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND INTO ALABAMA. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRST ONE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MORE
SUBTLE ONE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WHILE AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
LATEST 00Z WRF HAS JUST STARTED TO ARRIVE AND THINK IT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AND WILL THUS LEAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TOWARDS THE HRRR SINCE IT/S PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE WRF/GFS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SEEM JUSTIFIED GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCES AND ADJUST ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THEN WASH OUT OVER THE CWA BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE HARD TO PINPOINT MUCH MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS
OFF.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. BOTH AREAS SHOULD PUSH EAST
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 5-8 PM.
THEREAFTER...A LULL SHOULD OCCUR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM
AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL BLOSSOM AS THE WEAK FRONT INTERACTS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE OCCURRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS OF 20-30S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE
TO BASE THE FORECAST ON...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS CONSISTENCY FOR THE
UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
AND REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT FEEL SAFE LEAVING ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW...FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MKL AND TUP.
JDS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
UPDATE...
A DYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AT THIS TIME. THE MCS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE
LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM SHOW CONVECTION EITHER CONTINUING OR
REDEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROF. WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD HIGH IF THE CONVECTION OCCURS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMPS ALONE.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
CURRENT WEATHER TONIGHT IS CLOSE TO A COPY AS IT GETS FROM LAST
NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING MCS IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH CALM OR LIGHT WINDS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS/APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPWIND SIDE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TODAY WILL DRIVE CURRENT PW`S NEAR 1.50 INCHES...TO ABOVE
2 INCHES BY TONIGHT...THEN HOLD CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW KEEPING ANY FLASH FLOODING MORE
LOCALIZED AS SEVERAL MIDSOUTH COUNTIES HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN IN OVER TWO WEEKS. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 3000 J/KG AND LI`S DIP TO NEAR -10C.
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL
FORMATION...IT WILL BE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY...BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S...TO LOW 100S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THIS PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CURRENTLY THE
GFS IS FASTER. A DEEPER TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLIP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IT`S WAY
SOUTH AND EAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
JAB
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT
KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR AND ADDED ONE AT KTUP. SHORT RANGE MODELS
POINTS TOWARD A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDS OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRAS AND MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDS INVOF
SHRAS/TSRAS. SW WINDS 6-10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KMEM AND
KJBR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO SW FRIDAY
MORNING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
A DYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AT THIS TIME. THE MCS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE
LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM SHOW CONVECTION EITHER CONTINUING OR
REDEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROF. WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD HIGH IF THE CONVECTION OCCURS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMPS ALONE.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
CURRENT WEATHER TONIGHT IS CLOSE TO A COPY AS IT GETS FROM LAST
NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING MCS IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH CALM OR LIGHT WINDS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS/APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPWIND SIDE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TODAY WILL DRIVE CURRENT PW`S NEAR 1.50 INCHES...TO ABOVE
2 INCHES BY TONIGHT...THEN HOLD CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW KEEPING ANY FLASH FLOODING MORE
LOCALIZED AS SEVERAL MIDSOUTH COUNTIES HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN IN OVER TWO WEEKS. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 3000 J/KG AND LI`S DIP TO NEAR -10C.
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL
FORMATION...IT WILL BE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY...BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S...TO LOW 100S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THIS PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CURRENTLY THE
GFS IS FASTER. A DEEPER TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLIP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IT`S WAY
SOUTH AND EAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (07/12Z-08/12Z)
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION ENCOUNTERING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. PUT TEMPO
GROUPS IN THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR WHEN
AND WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS GREATEST. OUTSIDE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR
TODAY...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR AT KJBR AND KMKL TONIGHT.
WINDS S-SW 5-9 KTS TODAY AND 3-6 KTS TONIGHT...VARIABLE AND STRONGER
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
JCL
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
908 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. THE
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. EVEN SO...THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP
THE AREA FREE OF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OR JUST SW OF KIAH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
HR BUT EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE. IF NOT AMENDMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO
EXTEND ANOTHER HR BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT
VFR CIGS REST OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT MAY SEE SOME
SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. ANY CIG SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO VFR MID MORNING WITH S/SW WINDS. SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE
ACTIVE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL HAVE A LINE TO BACK WINDS TO
THE SE. MAY BE SOME ISO CONVECTION WITH SEA BREEZE AND HEATING BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 77 98 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 96 77 96 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 83 93 82 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CU IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TOMORROW ALSO SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PW VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104 ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ONLY MIX OUT TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOMORROW IN THE 103 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THIS WEEKEND....A WEAK UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO THEN MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE FLOW
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL ALSO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AS WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS MOSTLY THE
SAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A DIFFERENT PATTERN
SHAPING UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE RETURN OF A RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A TROUGH
TO DROP INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RE-CENTER AND AMPLIFY ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE CANADIAN. THERE ARE QUESTIONS OF
HOW FAR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND ALSO THE BEST TIMING
FOR RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FORECASTING 850 TEMPS TO BE THE
HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR...RANGING FROM 22 TO 25 C. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SEE THE CENTURY
MARK. WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT IN NORTH
TEXAS.
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT
TYPE OF IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 101 75 99 75 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 100 72 100 72 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 72 100 72 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 73 99 73 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 77 / 0 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 99 74 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 72 98 72 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 98 75 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAD ANOTHER
MORNING OF MVFR ACROSS AUS/SAT/SSF...AND DECIDED TO GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AND BRING IT IN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING FROM 11-14Z IN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. LATEST SIMULATED WRF DOES NOT
HAVE THE CLOUDS IN FOR FRIDAY MORNING SO LATER SHIFTS SHOULD WATCH
CLOSELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY AROUND THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS WARMED UP
TEMPERATURES A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT READINGS ARE
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO OVERDO ITS CONVECTION
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT I-35 TERMINAL SITES
FROM 09Z TO 15Z THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE UP TODAY OVER PREVIOUS DAYS SINCE A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING FROM THE GREAT BASING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SMALL PATCH OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD INLAND ABOUT
TO I-35...THEN SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY MID- MORNING WITH DAYTIME
MIXING. A SIMILAR PATTERN OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
TO VERY ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A TUTT LOW
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
INCLUDED A 20 PCT POP FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO COVER THIS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS STRONGER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY(S) OF THE SUMMER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WEST OVER THE ROCKIES AS
A NEW TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS INDICATES
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
BRING SOME RAIN AUGUST 15-17TH...BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THAT...SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 99 75 98 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 73 100 72 98 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 73 100 72 99 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 98 73 97 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 101 77 98 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 74 97 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 98 72 97 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 99 73 98 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 98 75 97 / 10 - - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 98 76 97 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 74 98 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS WARMED UP
TEMPERATURES A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT READINGS ARE
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO OVERDO ITS CONVECTION
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT I-35 TERMINAL SITES
FROM 09Z TO 15Z THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE UP TODAY OVER PREVIOUS DAYS SINCE A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING FROM THE GREAT BASING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SMALL PATCH OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD INLAND ABOUT
TO I-35...THEN SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY MID- MORNING WITH DAYTIME
MIXING. A SIMILAR PATTERN OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
TO VERY ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A TUTT LOW
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
INCLUDED A 20 PCT POP FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO COVER THIS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS STRONGER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY(S) OF THE SUMMER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WEST OVER THE ROCKIES AS
A NEW TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS INDICATES
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
BRING SOME RAIN AUGUST 15-17TH...BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THAT...SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 99 75 98 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 73 100 72 98 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 73 100 72 99 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 98 73 97 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 101 77 98 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 74 97 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 98 72 97 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 99 73 98 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 98 75 97 / 10 - - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 98 76 97 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 74 98 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW THIS EVENING GIVEN LEFTOVER WEAK INSTABILITY PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND STEEP LAPSES ABOVE THE SURFACE OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER CAP ALOFT AND DEEP WEST/NW FLOW HELPING TO KEEP THE LID ON
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION SO STILL EXPECTING MOST SHRA TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR
AND RAP WHICH SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SO
KEEPING POPS SIMILAR OVERNIGHT WITH FEW REMAINING SHRA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. OTRW WEAK FRONT NOW STILL NW OF THE MOUNTAINS TO DRIFT
THROUGH LATE BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SUPPORT THINK MAINLY PC OVERALL. LOW FOG STABILITY VALUES SUPPORT
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG VALLEYS AND WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS HAVE
OCCURRED THIS EVENING SO BEEFING UP COVERAGE IN SPOTS. BUMPED UP
LOWS A BIT GIVEN LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS AND LAGGING COOL
ADVECTION WELL TO THE NW BUT OVERALL MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HRRR AND RNK WRK-
ARW MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING DO A GOOD JOB THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE PLACE STRONG WEIGHT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE. THAT REGION WILL PRIMARILY BE
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG AND ALSO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM
TONIGHT. THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECT TO
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE NIGHT
OF SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOWER...MORE
NUMEROUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE
WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL HELP RE-
ESTABLISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT AND BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OH/PA WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS AXIS NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH IT WILL COME
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. WHILE NOT FORECAST...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT TO WHERE THE
BEST REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD LOOK FAMILIAR TO WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED THE END OF LAST WEEK WITH TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...FAVORING A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES...AND
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
THE ONLY THING THAT HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH TIME. TO START THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A PATTERN THAT GENERALLY
FEATURES COOL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE COOL CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE SHOWERS.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WEDGE OF STABLE AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MTNS WILL PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMINESS HERE...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF I77 WHERE MORE SUN AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING HIGH CHC THREAT FOR PRECIP RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN EASTERLY WIND...
WENT WELL BELOW CLIMO. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY WE WILL BE LUCKY TO TOUCH 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COOL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE SAME NEARLY
STATIONARY...WAVY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING
SW...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH TIME...RESULTING
IN A UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
THUNDER BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK...THE RETURN OF SOME
SUN PROVIDING INSTABILITY TO FEED DEEPER CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECT PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG WILL BE
SINCE HIGH CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA AD SINCE DEW POINTS
WILL BE DROPPING LATE TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT KLWB AND KLYH.
THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
13Z/9AM. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING
DURING THE DAY TO LOWER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NORTH AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND
EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. FAIR WEATHER CU HAS POPPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE LOCATION OF
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD CONDITIONS.
WENT WITH THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH LAST NIGHTS TEMPS
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.
SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT INTO
MINNESOTA. SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ALONG TYPICAL DIURNAL CU FORMATION AROUND MIDDAY. BUT
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSHING
THE MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH
TOMORROW SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN FALL BACK TO PERHAPS 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUESDAY...AS PRONOUNCED RIDGING DEV LOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY WHATS LEFT OF THIS DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THEN AS SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
CORE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET IN CONCERT WITH SOME LATE DAY
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 18Z MONDAY
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PRECIPITATION COULD HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE...PERHAPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RATHER
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STILL BE UNDER PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF
WEAK IMPULSES DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ADD ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE TRAVERSING
THROUGH IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS WISCONSIN.
A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S...REACHING THE 60S OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND COOLER SPOTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AND
IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH DEWPOINT RECOVERY TAKES PLACE...AND IF THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE STAY DOWN.
FOR SATURDAY...PLAN ON MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AT THE SURFACE...THE GREATER MOISTURE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINN/IOWA SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S...KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS
COMFORTABLE. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM LOW/MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE MORE SUN/MIXING IS EXPECTED...TO MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST UNDER MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED TO THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. PRECIPITABLE
WATER OFF THE 08.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN A WEAK CAP ENVIRONMENT...POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES WEST OF A ROCHESTER TO CHARLES CITY LINE FOR
SUNDAY.
08.12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS CYCLES AGREEMENT OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST...GENERATING A MODEST AMOUNT OF
500-300 MB PV ADVECTION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED BUT WITH DEWPOINTS PEGGED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S...MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...AND AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY LACKING...UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND LESS THAN 15 KTS SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TRENDING
HIGHER...INCREASED POPS TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
DIFFERENCES CREEP UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE AREA DRY WITH GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE BUT THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND
REAL PATTERN SIGNALS...SLIGHT CHANCES IN A MODEL CONSENSUS LOOK
GOOD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
EASTERLY DRY FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS IF VALLEY FOG CAN FORM AT LSE. BETWEEN SCATTERED
ALTOSTRATUS MOVING ACROSS LSE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 10-15 KT WINDS RIGHT
ABOVE THE GROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT...THINK THE PROBABILITY OF
VALLEY FOG IS QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE BCFG IN THE TAF
FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
620 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND
EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. FAIR WEATHER CU HAS POPPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE LOCATION OF
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD CONDITIONS.
WENT WITH THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH LAST NIGHTS TEMPS
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.
SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT INTO
MINNESOTA. SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ALONG TYPICAL DIURNAL CU FORMATION AROUND MIDDAY. BUT
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSHING
THE MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH
TOMORROW SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN FALL BACK TO PERHAPS 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUESDAY...AS PRONOUNCED RIDGING DEV LOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY WHATS LEFT OF THIS DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THEN AS SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
CORE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET IN CONCERT WITH SOME LATE DAY
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 18Z MONDAY
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PRECIPITATION COULD HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE...PERHAPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RATHER
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STILL BE UNDER PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF
WEAK IMPULSES DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ADD ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
256 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN IA/EASTERN KS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF ON THE NORTH END
AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND WAS NOW CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-80 IN
IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND MN. BESIDE A
BAND OF CIRRUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WI...DRY AIR OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG WERE NOTED
ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND THE WI RIVER VALLEY. ARX WEBCAM SHOWING SOME
STRATUS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND THINKING THIS WILL GET A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. WILL
BE WATCHING THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN IA TRACK EAST...WHICH
MAY SPREAD ISOLATED SHOWERS/OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH THIS WAVE AND GIVEN DRIER EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW...KEPT RAIN CHANCE VERY LOW...MAXED OUT IN THE 20-25
PERCENT RANGE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94
WITH MORE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST
MN/SOUTHWEST WI. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
EAST INTO IL. WAS THINKING SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH A BIT
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...THINKING WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS CLEAN. THEY MAY BE SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE WISCONSIN/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS
POINT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. PLAN ON HIGHS SAT AND
SUN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80...COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AT THIS POINT
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING FARTHER NORTH IN CANADA. AS
SUCH...KEEPING POPS FAIRLY LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD TOP OFF AROUND
80 ON MONDAY AND THEN COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY.
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A FOG THREAT...SPECIFICALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...WITH A GREATER IMPACT AT KLSE AS A RESULT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND MO LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING SOME HIGH CIRRUS THIS WAY. IT APPEARS TO BE THIN
IN NATURE THOUGH...AND ITS IMPACT ON DIURNAL COOLING COULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.
SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO CALM...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO THIS LIGHT WIND LAYER EXTENDING UPWARDS OF 4K FT.
PREVIOUS RAP AND NAM INCREASE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BEFORE
12Z...AND THIS SUGGESTION IS STILL THERE IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT
MORESO TOWARD 12Z RATHER THAN EARLIER. WITH AN INVERSION ALREADY IN
PLACE...THIS LATE INCREASE IN WIND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE
SFC.
KLSE T/TD SPREAD WAS 7 DEGREES AT 03Z...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WHAT
LOCAL STUDIES FAVOR FOR 1/4SM FORMATION. HOWEVER...COUPLE THIS WITH
THE LIGHT WIND PROFILE AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND AT LEAST SUB 1SM AT KLSE. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z.
FOR KRST...SIMILAR T/TD SPREAD AND LIGHT WIND FIELD. EXPECT SOME
MVFR VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES SHOULD THEN BE VFR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
429 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
A GOOD FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM
WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE LLVLS ARE QUITE
MOIST YET AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60F OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WOULD BE
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS OVER WESTERN NE WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
LESS THAN 2 DEG. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR CDR AND SNY SHOW CIGS
IMPROVING AFTER 15Z BUT STILL INDICATE LLVL SATURATION. A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY...SO SLASHED FCST HIGHS TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES
AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET FAR INTO THE 80S WITH PCPN INCREASING
BY EARLY AFTN. STILL LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A SMALL PIECE OF
MIDLVL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. DECENT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH A MODEST
60 KT H25 JET MOVING OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE SCT COVERAGE OF STORMS
FOR MOST AREAS AS MIDLVL RH PROGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION BY 00Z FRI. PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE DO
HAVE A 5 PCT RISK AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR EAST OF CHEYENNE. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
POCKETS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPES OVER THE PLAINS WHICH COULD AID
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS YET AGAIN. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
ORGANIZATION WE WILL SEE THOUGH AS BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SPOTTY AT BEST WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLVL FLOW...SO WENT WITH
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE IN THE
GRIDS. EFFICIENT RAINERS EXPECTED WITH GFS PWATS APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES AND K-INDEX VALUES NEAR 40C OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW.
THE MODELS KEY IN ON A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. QPF RETURNS DEFINITELY COME DOWN...BUT
WITH GOOD 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 06Z...MAINLY NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS NEAR-SFC
RH VALUES RISE TO NEAR 100 PCT BY 12Z FRI. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE
THE HEAVIER PCPN FALLS BEFORE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE LOCATIONS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS. YET ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL WY AFTER 15Z FRI. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...PCPN COVERAGE WILL
PEAK DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH MODERATE CAPES AHEAD OF DRYLINE ALONG THE WY/NE
BORDER. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 60S AT 00Z SAT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. THINKING FRIDAY MAY BE THE DAY TO SEE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AS MORE WIDESPREAD H5 FLOW AROUND 30 KTS ENHANCES
SHEAR. PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME ON SAT... THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA. A LITTLE WARMER ALOFT
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH LESS OVERALL PCPN COVERAGE...SO EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THU-FRI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS IN MUCH
QUESTION. CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERYDAY BUT COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL PATTERN WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DYING OFF BY MIDNIGHT MOST DAYS. WITHOUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
OVER THE AREA AT NIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY. THAT SAID THE ECMWF DOES MOVE A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT BUYING OFF ON THAT SOLUTION
100 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD THE SOLUTION VERIFY THERE WOULD
BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CONVECTION HAS NEARLY COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. REMNANT CELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE
WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS PAST EVENING AND WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING. HRRR SHOWS THIS REALLY WELL AND FOLLOWED
ITS GUIDANCE. KCDR AND KAIA SHOULD FALL TO IFR/VLIFR AFTER 09Z OR
SHORTLY THERE AFTER. CONVECTION RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS AT SOME
POINT AS STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 75 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1042 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CONVECTION WAS EARLY TO START TODAY WITH INITIATION OCCURRING AS A
RESULT OF TWO SEPARATE CATALYSTS. THE FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES
WHERE LFQ OF A 75 KNOT H3 JET STREAK APPROACHES. THE OTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION FIRED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NE WY INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SFC...60F ISODROSOTHERM EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY WITH A WEAK NW/SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND AS
THE H3 JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY. SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ABOUT 1500
J/KG OF AVAILABLE SBCAPES EXTENDING FROM ERN WYOMING INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AS THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING.
RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WRN WYOMING. OTHERWISE...SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. PWAT VALUES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
TODAY WITH THE ONE INCH LINE HOVERING VERY CLOSE TO THE WY/NE
STATELINE. LIKEWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE WK QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE ERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
SIMILAR TIMING AS TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER A BETTER AIR MASS. SBCAPES ARE
AGAIN PROGD TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG. SO ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD TO ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW MAY BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MEANDERS TOWARDS THE
CWFA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE. HOWEVER...IN ALL CASE EXPECT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S/LOW 80S
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
AREA REMAINS IN A RATHER MOIST MONSOONAL PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH DIURNAL CHANCES OF STORMS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SAT THROUGH MON WHICH
KEEPS MIDLEVEL FLOW SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
IN FROM ARIZONA/UTAH. THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS
TO BE ON SUN AS SFC WINDS TURN EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A SFC HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STEERING FLOW IS ALSO SOUTHERLY ON SUN
AFTN SO MAY TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE FOOTHILLS. LI VALUES ARE -4C TO -6C ON SUN AND MON
AFTNS...HOWEVER WITH BULK SHEAR AT 25 KTS...THE SVR POTENTIAL
LOOKS LIMITED (WHICH IS NORMAL FOR MID AUG). TEMPS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE CWA ON TUES NIGHT WITH DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CONVECTION HAS NEARLY COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. REMNANT CELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE
WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS PAST EVENING AND WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING. HRRR SHOWS THIS REALLY WELL AND FOLLOWED
ITS GUIDANCE. KCDR AND KAIA SHOULD FALL TO IFR/VLIFR AFTER 09Z OR
SHORTLY THERE AFTER. CONVECTION RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY AT
LEAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...SPARKING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO EXPECT
TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONVERGENCE INTO THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED INSTABILITY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE NORTH PART TOWARD SUNRISE. CONTINUED
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SUPPORTS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
OF THE SHOWERS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE
GREATEST MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE FORECASTED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE MODELS
SHOW A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN WITH A DEPTH NEAR
574 DAM. THIS IS A PREFERRED VALUE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLE BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY HELP SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
PATTERN WITH DEPTHS NEAR 574 DAM WHICH FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN
AUGUST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT FOG AND
IFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HEATING LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT MVFR OR VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER RESTRICTIONS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
...HEAVY RAINS AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT
REMAIN NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
09/06Z SFC OBSERVATIONS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE WMFNT
IS LIFTING SLOWLY N...BEING AIDED BY STEADY PRES FALLS OVR THE SC
MIDLANDS AND NC PIEDMONT. MODELS SHOW THE FNT LIFTING N OF THE
FCST AREA LTR THIS MRNG AND BECMG STNRY ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY WITH
A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES INTERACTING WITH A NUMBER OF WAVES OF UPSTREAM MID-LVL
VORTICITY AND MOD SFC BASED INSTAB. A NUMBER OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND NSSL 4KM-WRF...INDICATE
SHWRS/TSTMS WL INITIATE OVR THE CNTRL AND WRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA BY LTE MRNG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ARE
BREACHED...THEN SPREAD E TO THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTN PSBLY IN
THE FORM OF SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TSTMS. POPS WL BE INCRD TO 70
PCNT ACROSS ALL ZONES WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS
SHIFTING FROM W-E TO THE COAST DURING THE MID-LTE AFTN HRS. HIGHS
WL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD
STILL REACH THE UPR 80S N TO LWR 90S BEFORE THE ONSET OF TSTMS.
THERE WL BE A RISK FOR HVY RNFL AGAIN TDA...ESP DURING THE AFTN
HRS. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY WK FLOW IN THE 925-700 HPA LYR
WITH WND FIELDS FAVORING CONVECTIVE TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING...ESP
ALONG/NEAR MESOSCALE BNDRYS. 09/00Z FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER
LOW IN A NUMBER OF LOCALES WHERE HVY RAIN FELL YDA SO THERE WL BE
A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. THE RISK WL BE ELEVATED
AT THE COAST LTE THIS AFTN AS ALREADY ELEVATED TIDES WL BE HEADING
INTO THE ERLY EVNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WE STRONGLY CONSIDERED THE
ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL THE COASTAL ZONES FROM LTE
AFTN INTO THE MID-EVNG HRS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THIS FAR OUT THAT THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL WITHIN
A FEW HRS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE. IF THE LATEST RUN OF THE 4KM-
NSSL WRF PLAYS OUT...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE FLASH FLOODING IN
BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON AREAS LTE THIS AFTN. THIS WL BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO HVY RNFL.. THERE WL
BE A RISK FOR ISOLD STRONG/SVR TSTMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FCST TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT SO THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS IS
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WL SLOWLY WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION. LINGERING BNDRYS...HIGH PWATS AND SOME SFC BASED
INSTAB WL KEEP A RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH THE NGT. THERE
WL STILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESP AT THE COAST DURING
THE ERLY EVNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR-MID 70S
INLAND MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST.
SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TOWARD THE COASTLINE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY ENERGY TO DEVELOP
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 2.25 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS A
RESULT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND INLAND LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WHERE
STORM MOTION IS SLOWED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN
SUCH A WARM AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM COULD STILL OCCUR GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 90S
INLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...EVEN AFTER INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES WITH SUNSET.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LINGERING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE CO-LOCATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TUESDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT FORCING WITHIN
THE WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE...WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE 40
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST EACH NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES...THUS EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN STRONGEST
CONVECTION. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTLINE AND
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN ITS WAKE.
NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLS/DISSIPATES TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE THEN TRENDED RAIN CHANCES BACK DOWN TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. EXPECT LITTLE
VARIATION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING TO SEE LIFR/IFR CIGS DVLP ACROSS PARTS OF SE GA WHERE
SKIES HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED. ALREADY SEEING SCT004 AT KSAV PER
05Z OBSERVATION...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4SM BKN004
FROM ROUGHLY 07-10Z TO COVER POTENTIAL STRATUS FORMING. ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT KCHS TO PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VFR. TSTMS MOVING UP THE LWR SC COAST LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF
KCHS...BUT IT WL BE CLOSE. INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE RGN.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FEATURE LINES OF TSTMS AFFECTING BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTN. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOW-END MVFR TSTM CONDITIONS
AT KCHS FROM 19-22Z AND 18-21Z AT KSAV. ADJUSTMENTS WL BE NEEDED
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WNDS WL TURN ONSHORE BY THIS AFTN AS THE WMFNT LIFTS N OF
THE WTRS. SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 5-10 KT...PSBLY A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WL AVG 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...WNDS ARE FCST TO BACK TO THE S WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT. SEAS WL REMAIN 1-3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY...WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY AND SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT TUESDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LIFTING
SURFACE LOW...WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
ON EITHER SIDE OF 15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT AND FCST TIDAL DEPARTURES SUGGEST TIDES WILL APRCH/EXCEED
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE LWR SC COAST AND
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE UPR GA COAST. XPCT
TIDES OF 7.3-7.6 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH 9.1 TO 9.4
FT MLLW AT FT PULASKI. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS HVY RAIN COULD BE
FALLING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVNG. WL ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADV FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...FROM
6PM-10PM.
THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDE...THE FULL MOON COINCIDENT WITH THE
CLOSEST LUNAR PERIGEE OF THE YEAR...WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND AND
CREATE HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. SINCE ONLY SMALL
DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES
TO RESULT IN MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING...EVEN WITH A RATHER WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS WILL STILL LIKELY BOOST TIDE LEVELS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ALWAYS...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AROUND THE TIMES OF THE ELEVATED
HIGH TIDES...RUNOFF WILL BE INHIBITED AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITHIN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC WSR-88D /KCLX/ REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL FAILURE. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE HAS THE RADAR
RETURNING TO SERVICE BETWEEN AUGUST 21 AND 25.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONVERGENCE INTO THE STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED INSTABILITY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE NORTH PART TOWARD SUNRISE. CONTINUED
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SUPPORTS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
OF THE SHOWERS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE
GREATEST MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE FORECASTED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE MODELS
SHOW A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN WITH A DEPTH NEAR
574 DAM. THIS IS A PREFERRED VALUE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLE BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY HELP SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
PATTERN WITH DEPTHS NEAR 574 DAM WHICH FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN
AUGUST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE MIDLANDS...WHILE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
FOG AND IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE DURING THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
120 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED
BECAUSE OF THE DIMINISHED INSTABILITY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE NORTH PART TOWARD SUNRISE. CONTINUED HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERNIGHT SUPPORTS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
SOME OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SUPPORT THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH SECTION WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND A DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 574 DAM IS A PREFERRED DEPTH FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN AUGUST. BASED ON GUIDANCE AND MODEL SPECTRUM DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURE AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE MIDLANDS...WHILE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
FOG AND IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE DURING THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ASSOCIATED FROPA SO STUCK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
FIELDS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTED
BY GEFS SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR OR TO THE WEST OF BOTH SITES. AT THIS TIME CHOSE
TO HANDLE THIS WITH A VCTS. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOTH SITES AND COULD CAUSE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THIS ENTAILED MAINLY TAKING THEM DOWN IN THE NEAR TERM PER
THE HRRR AND ADJUSTING THE FOG WITH INCREASED CONCERNS FOR DENSE
PATCHES LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO MATCHED UP THE T/TD GRIDS WITH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WHERE IT IS HELPING TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE DRIFTING EAST INTO THE JKL CWA. ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST OUT HERE...AHEAD
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. OUR VERY DAMP ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAINING OF
THESE CELLS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SO FAR...MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN SPARED SUBSTANTIAL RAINS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A HALF AN
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PLACES...ONE EAST OF JACKSON
AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...THAT WILL
NEED EXTRA SCRUTINY OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES
FALLING EARLIER IN THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO TIME THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND MELD IT INTO A GENERALLY WET FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12.
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INTO DAWN BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF AN
UPDATED ZFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A VERY SLOWLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY TOMORROW EVENING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL
BE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE
IN AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOMETIMES WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
AREAS THAT SAY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY...HOWEVER THIS IS OVER
RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER THE SAME
AREAS EFFECTED EARLIER...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
AS A THUNDERSTORM MOVES IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT AREAS OF
DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN TRANSITION TO A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EVENTUALLY
EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD AS A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH
FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS COMBINATION FORMS A DEVELOPING STAGNANT PATTERN AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED OR EVEN BLOCKING PATTERN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY IFR NORTH AND EAST OF KJKL AT TAF
ISSUANCE...AND VFR WITH SOME MVFR TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN OVERALL
DETERIORATION IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR ACROSS THE
AREA BY DAWN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH
MAINLY MVFR BY MID DAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA
EXPECTED TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
POTENTIAL IFR IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DIE OUT ON SATURAY EVENING...VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN...BUT
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Tonight-Saturday:
Weak zonal flow resulting in fairly quiet weather next 30 hours. In
the very near term what`s left of a weak MCV moving into northwest MO
late is likely to generate little if any precipitation as the feature
works its way through a stable environment. Main concern is how long
stratus will linger as well as fog potential. Considering how moist
the boundary layer is plus light winds under a nocturnal inversion
believe conditions favor fog development. SREF visibility prog and
UPS fog output also support fog formation. Pockets of dense fog
certainly possible in locally favored regions. RUC and NAM
condensation pressure deficit progs also maintain low clouds over at
least northeast MO through the night.
Saturday looks rain-free with warmer temperatures, albeit still
below normal, owing to the likelihood of seeing sunshine.
Saturday night-Sunday night:
This period still holds our best chance of seeing convective
activity. The upper flow remains weak and zonal. However, the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF have shown continuity/consistency with a weak shortwave
trough coming out of the southeast WY/NE Panhandle area late Saturday
afternoon/evening. These models track the feature ese and generate a
convective complex. The southerly low level jet is not particularly
strong nor is there a frontal boundary to enhance the low-level
convergence so how long the convection holds together is still
debatable. For now, can justify increasing PoPs over the western CWA
late Saturday night and Sunday. Of interest is the ECMWF and LSX`s
local WRF models which generate a second and possible stronger area
of convection with a cold front that drags through the region late
Sunday afternoon and evening. Lacking confirmation from the NAM and
GFS prevents me from ratcheting up PoPs for this period but it does
bear watching. Heavy rainfall may need to be considered in later
forecasts once there is a better handle on the longevity of possible
MCS. Max temperatures will likely be problematic due to precipitation
and cloud cover distribution. Did trend them lower over the northern
and western CWA.
Monday-Thursday:
An old friend is about to revisit us as the upper flow transition
once again to a sharpening upper trough from the Great Lakes through
the OH Valley and the upper ridge pumping up over the Rockies. This
will leave us in northwest flow aloft as well as on the east side and
northerly winds of a surface high spreading across the central U.S.
This pattern has repeated itself several times this summer and has
resulted in much cooler than average temperatures. Models are
trending this way but look too slow/warm initially....which is
typical. So, have lowered temperatures during this period. Should be
a dry period although widely scattered convection could pop up mainly
Monday afternoon as a weak vorticity lobe drops through IA and
eastern half of MO.
Thursday night-Friday:
The Rockies upper ridge shows signs of breaking down with a possible
shortwave trough shoving east through the Central Plains. This is
enough to add in some chance PoPs as well as allow temperatures to
warm closer to seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MVFR to IFR stratus will continue to sit just east of the TAF sites
tonight, although a few scattered areas of MVFR ceilings may briefly
drift through the terminals over the next few hours. Widespread
patchy fog is expected to develop across the area, but the lowest
visibilities may occur on the west side of the stratus deck at MCI
and STJ. Fog should dissipate by 13-14z Saturday morning, leaving the
area VFR for the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...THOUGH NEITHER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
TODAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH HAVRE
AND GREAT FALLS AS OF 09 UTC WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THANKS
TO THE PASSAGE OF A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE 3 MB/3 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AT 09 UTC AND WEAK SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ON OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MT...BOTH
OF WHICH MAY SIGNAL A BIT BETTER FRONTAL PUSH AND STRONGER COOLING
IN ITS WAKE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WE THUS REDUCED HIGHS SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND PUSHED POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
ALONE WOULD SUGGEST. BOTH OF THOSE ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH...BUT THE CORE OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL STAY
IN CANADA AND 850-MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT VERY ROBUST LIKE WE
TYPICALLY SEE IN CASES WHERE GUIDANCE UNDERDOES FRONTAL SURGES. IT
THUS SEEMED APPROPRIATE TO NOT SWING TOO HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION
WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST UNTIL MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE SOLIDIFIED.
WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONCERNED...SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE LIKE
THE 06 UTC HRRR TAKES THE SHOWERS AROUND HARLOWTON AT 09 UTC EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SHOULD SERVE TO INCITE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON A
MORE SCATTERED BASIS FROM MILES CITY AND BROADUS EAST TO BAKER AND
EKALAKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...BUT 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 20 KT...SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF STRONG STORMS...BUT VERY LOW SEVERE RISK. THE
00 UTC SPC SSEO IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA WITH THE STORM COVERAGE
GREATEST IN FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 21 TO 00 UTC. THE SSEO
AND IN PARTICULAR THE OFTEN-WELL-PERFORMING NSSL WRF-ARW /WHICH IS
A COMPONENT OF THE SSEO/ ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TOO.
TONIGHT...SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY DIMINISH BY 03 UTC AS FORCING SHIFTS INTO ND AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN ITS WAKE. BOTH THE 00 UTC SPC SSEO OUTPUT
AND CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUPPORTED A
DRY FORECAST IN MANY AREAS AFTER 03 UTC /9 PM MDT/.
SUN...HIGHS WILL WARM BACK UP WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F IN
MOST AREAS UNDER HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. WE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS SOME
5 TO 8 F USING THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE FORECAST
STILL LAGS THE WARMER BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE A BIT. WE EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
THE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO ACTIVITY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE US WILL
KEEP EARLY TO MID WEEK SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS SC AND SE MONTANA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN LIEU OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...BUT EITHER WAY CIRCULATION AROUND IT WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CONDUIT FOR THE TAP OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL...MUCH NEEDED...PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE BY NEXT WEEKEND...CUTTING
OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE AT KBHK AND
KMLS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG AND NORTHERLY
POST FRONTAL...GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/087 060/089 060/093 061/090 059/089 058/087
3/T 20/B 01/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 083 052/087 053/090 054/092 055/090 054/087 052/084
3/T 21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 43/T 32/T
HDN 086 057/089 058/091 061/093 062/093 061/091 058/090
3/T 20/B 01/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 086 059/086 060/089 063/092 064/093 063/089 061/090
4/T 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 087 057/086 058/090 061/093 063/094 062/090 060/088
3/T 31/U 00/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 084 054/081 054/085 059/088 062/088 061/084 057/086
4/T 41/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 083 053/085 054/089 057/092 058/091 057/087 055/087
3/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST ZONES DRIVEN IN PART BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SHEAR AXIS MOVING SE ACROSS VA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN ZONES...A CLUSTER OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT
MOVED OUT OF NORTH-CENTRAL SC AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES A FEW
HOURS AGO...HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND TOWARD DRIER AIR. THE LATEST
HRRR...WHILE ADEQUATELY DEPICTING THE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...SO FAR BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ADDTIONAL RAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z. EVEN STILL...AS LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
SATURATED FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ALBETIT PROBABLY
LESS COVERAGE THAN THE CURRENT HRRR IS SUGGESTING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE NORTHERN STRATIFORM PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL SC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREV CYCLES...WITH
CLOUDY AND WET-AT-TIMES WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVER TOP OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE
INVOF OF THE NC/SC BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...A HYBRID CAD PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THE MODELS RECENTLY
HAVE BEEN RATHER ROBUST WITH QPF VALUES...A CONSENSUS OF WHICH HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN PAINTING A PICTURE OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 (OR
MORE) INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY HIGHEST
WEST. WHILE ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WHAT THE FINAL TOTALS WILL BE...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO...AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...MUCH
LIKE THE CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVED NORTH OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL SC A FEW HOURS AGO. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MODELS SHOW
THIS WAVE MOVING SE AND INDUCING A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION AND STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...VIGOROUS
1000-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOC WITH THIS FLOW...AND ASCENT
OVERTOP THE WEDGE (ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE)...SHOULD RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-
TIME HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES WHERE
CAD WILL BE DEEPER. THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL THAT WE GET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...IF THE MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...THEN URBAN...
POOR DRAINAGE...AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE A CONCERN
IN THE SHORTER TERM...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN
THE LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINLY AND LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THESE QPF VALUES...
ESP SINCE PRECIP HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO DEVELOP SO FAR COMPARED
TO WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. AS SUCH...WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO STRONGLY
WORD THE HWO. THEN IF THE PRECIP INDEED BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A QUICK FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SFC BOUNDARY AND BEST INSTABILITY POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTH...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (GENERALLY IN THE
70S...WARMEST SE) AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS (MID-UPR 60S).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SC AND
EASTERN NC. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS NEAR FROM SC TOWARD THE NC COAST...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC WEAKENS AND BACKS AROUND TO MORE EAST-
NORTH...REDUCING THE ISENTROPIC ACCENT OVER THE WEDGE AIRMASS.
THUS...THE PRIMARY FORCING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE....AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN..BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE DRIZZLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND NOT MUCH HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY...LOW/MID 70S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
WHILE THE PARENT LOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LIFTS OFF TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW SHOULD BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY CLEARS TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AIRMASS AND LOW CLOUDS
OUT...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO HELP.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY THIN ON TUESDAY BUT NOT BE
COMPLETELY GONE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT BETTER DEEP FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT OR A CHANCE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END BY WEEKS END...AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US AND A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH REDUCED VSBY AND CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN.
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...LOCATIONS WEST OF A KRWI-KFAY LINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE LOW-MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR EAST OF THIS LINE MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES EXPECT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRIAD.
BEYOND 06Z SUN...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN
IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THIS
TIME. THEREAFTER...PRECIP AND REDUCED FLT CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST ZONES DRIVEN IN PART BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SHEAR AXIS MOVING SE ACROSS VA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN ZONES...A CLUSTER OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT
MOVED OUT OF NORTH-CENTRAL SC AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES A FEW
HOURS AGO...HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND TOWARD DRIER AIR. THE LATEST
HRRR...WHILE ADEQUATELY DEPICTING THE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...SO FAR BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ADDTIONAL RAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z. EVEN STILL...AS LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
SATURATED FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ALBETIT PROBABLY
LESS COVERAGE THAN THE CURRENT HRRR IS SUGGESTING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE NORTHERN STRATIFORM PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL SC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREV CYCLES...WITH
CLOUDY AND WET-AT-TIMES WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVER TOP OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE
INVOF OF THE NC/SC BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...A HYBRID CAD PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THE MODELS RECENTLY
HAVE BEEN RATHER ROBUST WITH QPF VALUES...A CONSENSUS OF WHICH HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN PAINTING A PICTURE OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 (OR
MORE) INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY HIGHEST
WEST. WHILE ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WHAT THE FINAL TOTALS WILL BE...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO...AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...MUCH
LIKE THE CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVED NORTH OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL SC A FEW HOURS AGO. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MODELS SHOW
THIS WAVE MOVING SE AND INDUCING A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION AND STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...VIGOROUS
1000-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOC WITH THIS FLOW...AND ASCENT
OVERTOP THE WEDGE (ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE)...SHOULD RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-
TIME HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES WHERE
CAD WILL BE DEEPER. THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL THAT WE GET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...IF THE MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...THEN URBAN...
POOR DRAINAGE...AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE A CONCERN
IN THE SHORTER TERM...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN
THE LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINLY AND LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THESE QPF VALUES...
ESP SINCE PRECIP HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO DEVELOP SO FAR COMPARED
TO WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. AS SUCH...WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO STRONGLY
WORD THE HWO. THEN IF THE PRECIP INDEED BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A QUICK FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SFC BOUNDARY AND BEST INSTABILITY POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTH...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (GENERALLY IN THE
70S...WARMEST SE) AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS (MID-UPR 60S).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF EXHIBIT STRONG CONSENSUS WITH THE PERSISTENT
DAMMING REGIME MAINTAINING A FAMILIAR BUT ANOMALOUSLY UNSEASONABLE
WINTRY LOOK AS IT EVOLVES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THE PARENT
HIGH EDGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
MAINTAINED...ALBEIT MORE EASTERLY AND WEAKER...ON MONDAY BY
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS MILLER-B LOOKING PATTERN
EFFECTIVELY LOCKS COOL AIR IN PLACE...AND ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS
MONDAY OF 75-80 DEGREES ARE ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ON THE HIGH SIDE IF RAIN IS MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL BE RAISING
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT MORE SO IN THE EAST WHERE THE EFFECTS OF
EASTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
COASTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS...BUT SITU DAMMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SCOURING WILL BE SLOW...BASICALLY FROM THE TOP DOWN FROM
HEATING. THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DURING THE MID WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GET A PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE MID WEST ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL TAIL OFF FROM LIKELY ON MONDAY TO CHANCES ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FINALLY SETTLING IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85 TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH REDUCED VSBY AND CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN.
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...LOCATIONS WEST OF A KRWI-KFAY LINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE LOW-MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR EAST OF THIS LINE MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES EXPECT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRIAD.
BEYOND 06Z SUN...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN
IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THIS
TIME. THEREAFTER...PRECIP AND REDUCED FLT CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
404 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
PLUS THE TYPICAL STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT...HAS LED TO VERY SPARSE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS LATER TODAY
AND THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN PLATEAU TO SE TN SHOULD AID IN
INCREASED CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY THE POORLY
PERFORMING GFS MODEL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN HOW MUCH CONVECTION
OCCURS EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS REALLY DON`T
ADVERTISE MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA. HAD NO CHOICE BUT
TO DOWNPLAY POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BLEND INTO SIMILAR
HIGHER POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WAS GENERALLY
THE TREND IN PREVIOUS POP GRIDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
WHICH HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO DEVELOP THAN THIS MORNING.
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
TODAY... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS SHEAR TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. SO MIGHT JUST SEE ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STRONG STORMS.
WILL MENTION THIS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.
OTHERWISE...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO MOIST TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN NAM MOS
MAXES. GFS MOS MAXES PROBABLY TOO WARM BUT LOOKED GREAT FOR
TONIGHT`S MINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WET PERIOD CONTINUES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREAK IN
RAIN...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TN VALLEY WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER REGION MONDAY. WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY NORTHEAST SECTIONS. DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE TN VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEXT SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN LOWER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER NW FLOW
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF SW VA TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 72 87 70 / 70 60 60 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 71 85 69 / 80 60 60 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 70 84 69 / 70 60 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 67 82 65 / 80 60 70 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND INTO ALABAMA. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
FIRST ONE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MORE
SUBTLE ONE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WHILE AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
LATEST 00Z WRF HAS JUST STARTED TO ARRIVE AND THINK IT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AND WILL THUS LEAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TOWARDS THE HRRR SINCE IT/S PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE WRF/GFS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SEEM JUSTIFIED GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCES...ADD PATCHY FOG...AND
ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THEN WASH OUT OVER THE CWA BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE HARD TO PINPOINT MUCH MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS
OFF.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. BOTH AREAS SHOULD PUSH EAST
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 5-8 PM.
THEREAFTER...A LULL SHOULD OCCUR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM
AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL BLOSSOM AS THE WEAK FRONT INTERACTS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE OCCURRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS OF 20-30S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING THIS EVENING...AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING
MEM. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAF THROUGH 07Z. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
FINALLY BE WEAKENING...BUT STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE
TO BASE THE FORECAST ON...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS CONSISTENCY FOR THE
UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
AND REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT FEEL SAFE LEAVING ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW...FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MKL AND TUP. LOCALLY VFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WIND. COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed Friday evening and
continue into the early morning hours across portions of the Big
Country and the Concho Valley. Several outflow boundaries have
rippled to the south. These boundaries have at least provided for
slightly cooler conditions behind the boundaries, with temperatures
in the mid 70s instead of the lower 80s ahead of them.
For today, similar to our discussion from yesterday morning, latest
TTU WRF and HRRR show at least isolated convection this afternoon
across portions of the Big Country, mainly north of I-20 where the
outflow boundaries will have an effect. Have again added slight
chance pops up there for today.
Highs on Friday afternoon were 1 or 2 degrees cooler than on
Thursday, and with the models suggesting the upper level ridge will
continue to gradually weaken across the area, temperatures should
cool another degree or two. Upper 90s to around 100 expected.
.LONG TERM...
Upper level ridging will continue into the later part of next
week. However, not all showers and thunderstorms will be
suppressed with the upper ridging. A thunderstorm complex in the
Panhandle Sunday may move into the Big Country late Sunday night,
A weak cold front will also move into the Big Country Monday
afternoon, and push south as far as the I-10 corridor Monday
night. This front will also provide an additional low level focus
for thunderstorm development. Kept a slight chance of
thunderstorms going Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly in the
Concho Valley and areas southward, as the front washes out.
Temperatures Sunday will be near or slightly above 100 degrees.
Highs the rest of next week should be 2 to 4 degrees less hot, with
isolated storms and increased cloud cover.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100 76 100 76 96 / 20 10 5 20 20
San Angelo 100 74 100 74 98 / 5 10 5 5 20
Junction 100 75 99 75 98 / 5 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1131 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE TRAVERSING
THROUGH IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS WISCONSIN.
A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S...REACHING THE 60S OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND COOLER SPOTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AND
IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH DEWPOINT RECOVERY TAKES PLACE...AND IF THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE STAY DOWN.
FOR SATURDAY...PLAN ON MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AT THE SURFACE...THE GREATER MOISTURE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINN/IOWA SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S...KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS
COMFORTABLE. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM LOW/MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE MORE SUN/MIXING IS EXPECTED...TO MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST UNDER MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED TO THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. PRECIPITABLE
WATER OFF THE 08.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN A WEAK CAP ENVIRONMENT...POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES WEST OF A ROCHESTER TO CHARLES CITY LINE FOR
SUNDAY.
08.12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS CYCLES AGREEMENT OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST...GENERATING A MODEST AMOUNT OF
500-300 MB PV ADVECTION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED BUT WITH DEWPOINTS PEGGED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S...MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...AND AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY LACKING...UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND LESS THAN 15 KTS SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TRENDING
HIGHER...INCREASED POPS TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
DIFFERENCES CREEP UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE AREA DRY WITH GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE BUT THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND
REAL PATTERN SIGNALS...SLIGHT CHANCES IN A MODEL CONSENSUS LOOK
GOOD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE TAF SITES...GENERALLY
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD
RH RECOVERY THIS EVENING...ENOUGH THAT THE CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG
HAS INCREASED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE REMAINS SCATTERED TO
BROKEN ALTOSTRATUS MOVING THROUGH...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
10-15 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...AND
ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE THE LAST RAIN. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES...HAVE
KEPT THE BCFG BETWEEN 09-1415Z BUT DID INCLUDE A SCT LIFR DECK
GIVEN THE RH RECOVERY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A MONITOR ON THE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR NEED OF VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS LOCATED AT RATHER HIGH LATITUDES
TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS ALSO DISPLACED FAIRLY FAR TO THE NORTH ALIGNED
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A BROAD BUT WEAK EXPANSE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY AND HIGH LEVEL
400-250MB ANALYSIS SUGGEST A SUBTLE UPPER LOW FEATURE IMPINGING ON
THE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...HOWEVER NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
ENERGY/VORTICITY FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS IT
STAYS ON A QUICK WESTWARD PATH OVER CUBA/FL STRAITS AND THEN OFF
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAKING A FIRST GLANCE AT THE 09/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WE SEE NO
FEATURES OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE. PW VALUES ARE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE LATER SUMMER
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE AND LAPSE RATES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COLUMN ARE ON THE POOR SIDE. THE PROFILE IS CERTAINLY
NOT HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NOT ONE THAT WOULD SUPPORT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM EITHER. "RUN OF THE MILL" SUMMER
STORMS SHOULD BE THE NORM TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. LOCAL AND NATIONAL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH THIS ASSESSMENT IN THEIR SIMULATIONS...MAXING OUT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFT STRENGTHS BETWEEN 10-14 M/S.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ILL-DEFINED LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. LOTS OF SHOWERS OUT THERE WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO TIME. MARINERS HEADING OUT THIS
MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR BRIEF WATERSPOUT SPIN-UPS. THESE STORMS ARE MEANDERING
JUST OFF THE COAST WITH THE OCCASIONAL CELL MAKING A MOVE TOWARD THE
BEACHES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOUR...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATER AS THE SEA-BREEZE BEGINS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...AND THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER THE LAND.
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SUGGEST GENERALLY LIGHT
FLOW WITH A SYNOPTIC PUSH FROM THE SW. THIS PUSH WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS "PUSH" WILL
HELP THE FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...WITH THE TREND FOR
HIGHER COVERAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO
THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND FURTHER INLAND. EXPECT STORMS TO BE RATHER
ISOLATED TOWARD THE BEACHES WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT AND SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATED FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA-BREEZE FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY.
TONIGHT...EVENING STORMS FADE WITH SUNSET...SETTING UP A MOSTLY DRY
PERIOD OVER THE INTERIOR. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL SHOWING AN AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING FROM THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWEST TO THE WATERS
WEST OF TAMPA BAY. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET AN ACTIVE AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS...AND THE FLOW WOULD TEND TO
BRING THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL
FAVOR PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR PRE-DAWN/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
SCT STORMS MIGRATING TO THE COAST IN THE POP GRIDS. CURRENTLY
SHOWING 30% POPS FOR THIS FAVORED AREA...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK
AT THIS CONVERGENT FEATURE IN THE 12Z NWP PACKAGE AND SEE IF HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE MORE APPROPRIATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ACTIVE
OFFSHORE STORMS ARE VISIBLE TO THE WEST OF MANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
AWAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE KSRQ AND KPIE SHOULD AN ISOLATED STORM
MIGRATING ONSHORE MAY FIND ITSELF IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.
THEREAFTER STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
TEND TO PUSH INLAND TO I-75 AND EASTWARD BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS WILL KEEP LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 2 FEET
OR LESS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL
REGIONS AND MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 79 88 79 / 40 20 30 10
FMY 89 76 90 77 / 50 20 30 20
GIF 89 77 89 76 / 60 30 50 20
SRQ 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 10
BKV 90 74 89 73 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 88 81 88 81 / 30 20 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
...HEAVY RAINS AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT
REMAIN NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION IS STEADILY EXPANDING OVER THE ERN SC MIDLANDS INTO
CNTRL GA. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.
09/10Z SFC OBSERVATIONS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE WMFNT
IS MEANDERING N...BEING AIDED BY STEADY PRES FALLS OVR THE SC
MIDLANDS AND NC PIEDMONT. MODELS SHOW THE FNT LIFTING N OF THE
FCST AREA LTR TDA AND BECMG STNRY ONCE AGAIN OVR THE NRN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE. IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY WITH A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
INTERACTING WITH A NUMBER OF WAVES OF UPSTREAM MID-LVL VORTICITY
AND MOD SFC BASED INSTAB. A NUMBER OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND NSSL 4KM-WRF...INDICATE SHWRS/TSTMS
WL INITIATE OVR THE CNTRL AND WRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA BY LTE
MRNG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ARE BREACHED...THEN
SPREAD E TO THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTN PSBLY IN THE FORM OF
SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TSTMS. POPS WL BE INCRD TO 70 PCNT ACROSS
ALL ZONES WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS SHIFTING FROM
W-E TO THE COAST DURING THE MID-LTE AFTN HRS. HIGHS WL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPR
80S N TO LWR 90S BEFORE THE ONSET OF TSTMS.
THERE WL BE A RISK FOR HVY RNFL AGAIN TDA...ESP DURING THE AFTN
HRS. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY WK FLOW IN THE 925-700 HPA LYR
WITH WND FIELDS FAVORING CONVECTIVE TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING...ESP
ALONG/NEAR MESOSCALE BNDRYS. 09/00Z FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER
LOW IN A NUMBER OF LOCALES WHERE HVY RAIN FELL YDA SO THERE WL BE
A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. THE RISK WL BE ELEVATED
AT THE COAST LTE THIS AFTN AS ALREADY ELEVATED TIDES WL BE HEADING
INTO THE ERLY EVNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WE STRONGLY CONSIDERED THE
ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL THE COASTAL ZONES FROM LTE
AFTN INTO THE MID-EVNG HRS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THIS FAR OUT THAT THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL WITHIN
A FEW HRS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE. IF THE LATEST RUN OF THE 4KM-
NSSL WRF PLAYS OUT...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE FLASH FLOODING IN
BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON AREAS LTE THIS AFTN. THIS WL BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO HVY RNFL.. THERE WL
BE A RISK FOR ISOLD STRONG/SVR TSTMS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FCST TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT SO THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS IS
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WL SLOWLY WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION. LINGERING BNDRYS...HIGH PWATS AND SOME SFC BASED
INSTAB WL KEEP A RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH THE NGT. THERE
WL STILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESP AT THE COAST DURING
THE ERLY EVNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR-MID 70S
INLAND MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST.
SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TOWARD THE COASTLINE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY ENERGY TO DEVELOP
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 2.25 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS A
RESULT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND INLAND LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WHERE
STORM MOTION IS SLOWED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN
SUCH A WARM AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM COULD STILL OCCUR GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 90S
INLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...EVEN AFTER INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES WITH SUNSET.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LINGERING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE CO-LOCATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TUESDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT FORCING WITHIN
THE WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE...WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE 40
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST EACH NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES...THUS EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN STRONGEST
CONVECTION. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTLINE AND
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN ITS WAKE.
NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLS/DISSIPATES TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE THEN TRENDED RAIN CHANCES BACK DOWN TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. EXPECT LITTLE
VARIATION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE KSAV TERMINAL.
AMENDED TO REMOVE IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS INCRG THAT TSTMS
WL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTN. ALREADY SEEING TSTMS INCRG
ACROSS THE SRN MIDLANDS INTO CNTRL GA. THE 12Z TAFS WL FEATURE
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS AT BOTH TERMINALS...BEGINNING
AT 18Z AT KSAV AND 19Z AT KCHS WITH TEMPO GROUPS SHOWING LOW-END
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF STINTS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR ARE PSBL IN
HEAVY RAIN...BUT STILL A BIT TOO FAR TO INCLUDE THOSE CONDITIONS
JUST YET. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN SO AMENDMENTS WL MOST
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE WL BE A RISK FOR
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE OVRNGT HRS...ESP AT KCHS AS A
FNTL BNDRY SINKS BACK TO THE S. ADDITIONAL MENTIONS OF SHWRS AND
TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WNDS WL TURN ONSHORE BY THIS AFTN AS THE WMFNT LIFTS N OF
THE WTRS. SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 5-10 KT...PSBLY A LITTLE HIGHER
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WL AVG 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...WNDS ARE FCST TO BACK TO THE S WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT. SEAS WL REMAIN 1-3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....A WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY...WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY AND SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT TUESDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LIFTING
SURFACE LOW...WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
ON EITHER SIDE OF 15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT AND FCST TIDAL DEPARTURES SUGGEST TIDES WILL APRCH/EXCEED
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE LWR SC COAST AND
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE UPR GA COAST. XPCT
TIDES OF 7.3-7.6 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH 9.1 TO 9.4
FT MLLW AT FT PULASKI. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS HVY RAIN COULD BE
FALLING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVNG. WL ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADV FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...FROM
6PM-10PM.
THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDE...THE FULL MOON COINCIDENT WITH THE
CLOSEST LUNAR PERIGEE OF THE YEAR...WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND AND
CREATE HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. SINCE ONLY SMALL
DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES
TO RESULT IN MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING...EVEN WITH A RATHER WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS WILL STILL LIKELY BOOST TIDE LEVELS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ALWAYS...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AROUND THE TIMES OF THE ELEVATED
HIGH TIDES...RUNOFF WILL BE INHIBITED AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITHIN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC WSR-88D /KCLX/ REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL FAILURE. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE HAS THE RADAR
RETURNING TO SERVICE BETWEEN AUGUST 21 AND 25.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
927 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Pesky surface low located over the western tip of Kentucky this
morning. Scattered showers continue to drift northwest across our
forecast area as far as Petersburg. Latest HRRR continues this
into the afternoon, primarily over east central Illinois. Further
north, skies have cleared in the extreme northern CWA, although
RAP guidance suggests the cloud deck may surge a bit further north
again over the next few hours.
Have sent an update to tweak the rain chances today, and pull back
the thunder threat to the extreme southeast CWA. Also have lowered
highs a few degrees except in the far north, as the clouds should
be rather persistent through the day, and current temperatures are
only in the upper 60s to lower 70s under the cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Surface low pressure remains centered near the southern tip of
Illinois this morning with scattered light showers wrapping around
the low into east central Illinois. Thin fog has developed from
around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville and points southward where
lightest winds and higher dew points are noted in surface
observations. The low will continue to move very slowly eastward
today. Weak lift and saturated conditions through today will allow
for additional isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms in
east central and southeast Illinois before a shortwave ridge
brings enough subsidence this evening to end precipitation
overnight. Temperatures still look on track to peak out just over
80 degrees for most of central Illinois today, but any areas with
persistent cloud cover and shower activity may fall short.
Persistent northeast winds 5-10 mph will continue for the next day
as a result of the pressure gradient around the low to the south
of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Little change on Sunday with weak low pressure about 1014 mb over
western KY/lower Ohio river valley and 1020 mb high pressure over
Lake Huron. Biggest difference with 00Z models occurs Sunday night
where GFS model is an outlier with MCS and associated heavy QPF of
2-4.5 inches of rain tracking east across central IL Sunday night
and did not follow this solution. Did increase slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms further north across central IL Sunday
afternoon with chance pops in far SE IL near Wabash river. Added
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to SW areas Sunday
night. Models keep surface boundary south of IL Sunday and Sunday
night so think if MCS does develop it will be further south on
Sunday night. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms south of IL early
next week. Sunday and Monday appear to be the warmest days with
highs in the lower to middle 80s which is closer to normal for mid
August. Humid too with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s
and highest in southern counties.
00z forecast model suite continue to show a strong upper level
trof digging into the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley Monday and
Tuesday with a cold front moving SE through central/SE IL during
Monday with surface low pressure deepening NE into lower MI Monday
night. Cold front moves east into Ohio and eastern KY by Tuesday
afternoon. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms still appears
to be during the day Monday and have 30-50% pops then with highest
pops in southeast IL. Lingered a small chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tue over eastern IL with best chances of
convection shifting east of IL with the cold front. Cooler highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s Tue and a bit cooler on Wed.
Dry conditions expected Tue night through Thu evening as weak high
pressure 1021 mb over western Canadian Rockies settles over IL by
Wed evening. This will also bring less humid air into central/SE
IL with more comfortable dew points of 55-60F on Wed and Thu.
Upper level trof pulls away from Illinois late next week as
temperatures and humidity levels slowly rise, with surface high
pressure ridge drifting east of IL and getting return southerly flow
by end of next week. Disturbances in the WNW flow to track across
the Midwest late next week and return chances of showers and
thunderstorms especially over western and northern areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A mix of IFR/MVFR visibilities in light fog from around KIJX-KLWV
southward through central IL this morning, along with areas of
MVFR cigs. To the north, primarily VFR conditions are in place
with ceilings generally BKN040-060. Isold -shra in east central
IL due to saturated conditions and weak lift associated with a
low to the south of IL. For today, expecting improvements in
visibilities as well as increasing ceiling heights with daytime
heating. A few -SHRA/TSRA in east central/southeast IL could bring
briefly MVFR cigs/vsbys but otherwise VFR conditions. After 02Z,
shower activity ending but sky cover SCT-BKN040-050 continuing.
Winds NE5-10 kts through the 24 hour TAF forecast period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
929 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. METARS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA SHOW VISIBILITIES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. GRIDS AND ZONES
HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO INCREASE AREAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH 1/4SM ALREADY FROM KIT CARSON
COUNTY TO SHERMAN COUNTY. I USED SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT (WHILE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS)...AND 06Z NAM FOR COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG. HRRR/RAP DO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF FOG IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE OFF FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED/OBSERVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ASSOCIATED FROPA SO STUCK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
FIELDS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTED
BY GEFS SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT THE KGLD TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS WELL HANDLED BY LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP AT KMCK...HOWEVER WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURATION SHOULD
BEGIN TO OCCUR...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES KEEP EDGE OF DENSE FOG JUST
WEST OF KMCK TERMINAL. HAVE INTRODUCED VLIFR TO KGLD TAFS THIS
MORNING AND IFR TO KMCK WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER REGION TODAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. I
LEFT VCTS MENTION IN PLACE FOR NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...AND WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE TIMING. STRONG WINDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW YET TO LOWER VIS/CIG BELOW VFR YET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
756 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO INCREASE AREAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH 1/4SM ALREADY FROM KIT CARSON
COUNTY TO SHERMAN COUNTY. I USED SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT (WHILE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS)...AND 06Z NAM FOR COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG. HRRR/RAP DO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF FOG IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE OFF FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED/OBSERVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ASSOCIATED FROPA SO STUCK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
FIELDS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTED
BY GEFS SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT THE KGLD TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS WELL HANDLED BY LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP AT KMCK...HOWEVER WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURATION SHOULD
BEGIN TO OCCUR...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES KEEP EDGE OF DENSE FOG JUST
WEST OF KMCK TERMINAL. HAVE INTRODUCED VLIFR TO KGLD TAFS THIS
MORNING AND IFR TO KMCK WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER REGION TODAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. I
LEFT VCTS MENTION IN PLACE FOR NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...AND WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE TIMING. STRONG WINDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW YET TO LOWER VIS/CIG BELOW VFR YET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH 1/4SM ALREADY FROM KIT CARSON
COUNTY TO SHERMAN COUNTY. I USED SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT (WHILE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS)...AND 06Z NAM FOR COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG. HRRR/RAP DO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF FOG IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE OFF FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED/OBSERVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ASSOCIATED FROPA SO STUCK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
FIELDS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTED
BY GEFS SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT THE KGLD TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS WELL HANDLED BY LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP AT KMCK...HOWEVER WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURATION SHOULD
BEGIN TO OCCUR...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES KEEP EDGE OF DENSE FOG JUST
WEST OF KMCK TERMINAL. HAVE INTRODUCED VLIFR TO KGLD TAFS THIS
MORNING AND IFR TO KMCK WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER REGION TODAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. I
LEFT VCTS MENTION IN PLACE FOR NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...AND WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE TIMING. STRONG WINDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW YET TO LOWER VIS/CIG BELOW VFR YET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
525 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ASSOCIATED FROPA SO STUCK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
FIELDS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTED
BY GEFS SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT THE KGLD TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS WELL HANDLED BY LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP AT KMCK...HOWEVER WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURATION SHOULD
BEGIN TO OCCUR...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES KEEP EDGE OF DENSE FOG JUST
WEST OF KMCK TERMINAL. HAVE INTRODUCED VLIFR TO KGLD TAFS THIS
MORNING AND IFR TO KMCK WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER REGION TODAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. I
LEFT VCTS MENTION IN PLACE FOR NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...AND WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE TIMING. STRONG WINDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW YET TO LOWER VIS/CIG BELOW VFR YET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING A CHAOTIC SKY OVER N MS THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR/W TN. WHILE WET MICROBURST
CHECKLIST IS ONLY INDICATING A RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL WRF
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HRRR IS INDICATING SOME MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR EXPECTED INCREASED CCOVERAGE DUE TO
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ALSO...INTRODUCED A LIMITED CONFIDENCE
OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA./26/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH TSRA COMPLEX
DEVELOPING NOW OVER CNTRL AR. SCT/NUM TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IF SITE IS DIRECTLY IMPACTED. VCTS TAF WORDING WORKS FOR NOW
AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED WHEN CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT INCREASES.
WINDS WILL BE W TO WNW GENERALLY LESS THEN 10 KT. WINDS COULD MORE
GUSTY /UP TO 30-40 KT/ IF INVOF STRONGER TSRA. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THIS WEEKEND...THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE NEAR THE
INTERFACE OF ACTIVE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A HOT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HOT AND HUMID
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
AND POSSIBLE MITIGATING EFFECTS ON HEAT STRESS.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS OVER AR IS CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE
CENTER AND COULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LATER
THIS MORNING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE ARE IN
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...AND NONE
OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLIER OVER THE UPPER DELTA REGION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MS...WITH MULT-CELL STORM CLUSTERS/SEGMENTS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT AND IT IS HARD
TO IMAGINE THE STORMS GETTING VERY ORGANIZED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...LOW
LEVEL FLOW/THETA-E ADVECTION MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BACK-BUILD MORE
THAN FORECAST. THIS COULD SLOW THE OVERALL SYSTEM SPEED AND INCREASE
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS ~27 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED.
EVEN WITH EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THE FORECAST
TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATIONS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 100-102 DEG F AT
MOST PLACES. WHILE THIS IS A LITTLE LOW FOR MENTION IN THE HAZARD
PRODUCTS...WE EXPECT GREATER HEAT STRESS TO RETURN SUNDAY SO WOULD
RATHER KEEP CONTINUITY AND LEAVE IT GOING FOR TODAY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCE FOR THE ARKLAMISS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MORE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS TO SATURDAY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. /EC/
FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM (MON-SAT)...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR MON/MON NGT AS THE REGION
UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE. BY MID WEEK...LOOK FOR A MORE QUIET
REGIME WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE EVOLVING NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BRING
SOLID PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR MON INTO MON NGT. THIS WILL BE
AS DEEP MOISTURE POOLS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SFC FRONT AND AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEK. SPECIFICS ON STORM TIMING REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. THE NAM/EURO DEVELOP ACTIVITY EARLIER ON
MON AND CONTINUE SOME SORT OF PRECIP INTO THE NIGHT. THE GFS DELAYS
INITIATION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO MON NGT.
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE DIFFERENCE SCENARIOS IS THE IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPS AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY. THE NAM/EURO HAVE MUCH LESS HOT
CONDITIONS WITH READINGS AROUND 90 FORECAST FOR HIGHS. THE GFS IS
THE HOTTER SOLUTION WITH 94-96. WITH SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS AS STRONGER SFC HEATING
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INSTABILITY. EVEN AS SOME CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
POTENTIAL FOR MON...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING GRAPHICS OR TEXT IN THE
HWO AS THERE REMAINS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO JUMP ON THIS FOR
DAY 3.
THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BY TUE WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL DRY PUSH MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO HELP THE WEAK SFC FRONT TO MAY
HEADWAY WELL INTO THE CWA ON TUE...THEN BRING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN ITS WAKE. PRECIP ACTIVITY ON TUE WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH HALF AND MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY PERIOD. AS WE GO
INTO AND THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK...THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX AND
RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR WED/THU ALONG WITH LESS HUMID READINGS. BY
FRI/SAT...A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 74 94 74 / 63 34 48 32
MERIDIAN 94 73 93 73 / 70 39 44 29
VICKSBURG 93 74 93 73 / 65 27 49 24
HATTIESBURG 95 75 94 75 / 59 33 63 34
NATCHEZ 92 74 92 75 / 58 29 54 20
GREENVILLE 90 74 94 75 / 70 24 43 30
GREENWOOD 91 73 94 74 / 70 25 39 28
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
938 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
NOT MUCH LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AT THE PRESENT THOUGH
DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS AS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. THE BAND IS NARROWING AS IT
PUSHES EAST AND BECOMING LESS CONTINUOUS S IT EXTENDS FROM JUST
WEST OF THE PORT OF OPHEIM SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN VALLEY
COUNTY AND WESTERN GARFIELD. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE WELL AND ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON A
DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER...IN
PARTICULAR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SIDNEY AND EAST OF MCCONE COUNTY.
WINDS ARE ALSO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...REFLECTIVE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FROPA HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME OF
THESE HIGHER GUSTS. THUS...LAKE WIND HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR FORT
PECK LAKE. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REPRESENTS AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THANKS TO A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE NOW EMERGED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALSO EXPECTING
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OF 15 TO 20 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO ISSUE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TO COVER THESE
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN HERE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...CLEARING THE SKIES AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AND A STRONG AND SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION BEGINNING
NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG THE ROCKIES
FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA RESULTING IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
EASTERN MONTANA FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVING TOWARD BETTER CONSENSUS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA TO A FLATTER TROF BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR
SOME SORT OF POSITIVE TILTED TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGGW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SPREAD TO KOLF...KSDY AND KGDV BY THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
N-NW AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED... BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER SHOWERS PASS OVER TERMINAL SITES.AEC
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
ADJUST POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT COLD FRONTAL POSITION.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR MILES
CITY TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF SHERIDAN WYOMING. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
FILLED IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON RADAR LOOKS WORSE THAN IT IS WITH
MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULDN`T BE MORE THAN A NUISANCE FOR OUTDOOR
PLANS. BEST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS
EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...THOUGH NEITHER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
TODAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH HAVRE
AND GREAT FALLS AS OF 09 UTC WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THANKS
TO THE PASSAGE OF A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE 3 MB/3 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AT 09 UTC AND WEAK SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ON OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MT...BOTH
OF WHICH MAY SIGNAL A BIT BETTER FRONTAL PUSH AND STRONGER COOLING
IN ITS WAKE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WE THUS REDUCED HIGHS SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND PUSHED POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
ALONE WOULD SUGGEST. BOTH OF THOSE ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH...BUT THE CORE OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL STAY
IN CANADA AND 850-MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT VERY ROBUST LIKE WE
TYPICALLY SEE IN CASES WHERE GUIDANCE UNDER DOES FRONTAL SURGES.
IT THUS SEEMED APPROPRIATE TO NOT SWING TOO HARD IN ANY ONE
DIRECTION WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST UNTIL MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE
SOLIDIFIED.
WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONCERNED...SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE LIKE
THE 06 UTC HRRR TAKES THE SHOWERS AROUND HARLOWTON AT 09 UTC EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SHOULD SERVE TO INCITE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON A
MORE SCATTERED BASIS FROM MILES CITY AND BROADUS EAST TO BAKER AND
EKALAKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...BUT 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 20 KT...SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF STRONG STORMS...BUT VERY LOW SEVERE RISK. THE
00 UTC SPC SSEO IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA WITH THE STORM COVERAGE
GREATEST IN FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 21 TO 00 UTC. THE SSEO
AND IN PARTICULAR THE OFTEN-WELL-PERFORMING NSSL WRF-ARW /WHICH IS
A COMPONENT OF THE SSEO/ ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TOO.
TONIGHT...SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY DIMINISH BY 03 UTC AS FORCING SHIFTS INTO ND AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN ITS WAKE. BOTH THE 00 UTC SPC SSEO OUTPUT
AND CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUPPORTED A
DRY FORECAST IN MANY AREAS AFTER 03 UTC /9 PM MDT/.
SUN...HIGHS WILL WARM BACK UP WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F IN
MOST AREAS UNDER HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. WE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS SOME
5 TO 8 F USING THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE FORECAST
STILL LAGS THE WARMER BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE A BIT. WE EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
THE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO ACTIVITY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE US WILL
KEEP EARLY TO MID WEEK SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS SC AND SE MONTANA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN LIEU OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...BUT EITHER WAY CIRCULATION AROUND IT WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CONDUIT FOR THE TAP OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL...MUCH NEEDED...PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE BY NEXT WEEKEND...CUTTING
OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS LINE IS JUST EAST OF KBIL...EAST EXTENDING THROUGH
MUSSELSHELLAND FORT SMITH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
AT KBHK AND KMLS AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. POST FRONTAL
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAT FELT IN RECENT DAYS AND WILL TURN
NORTHERLY. GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 059/087 060/089 060/093 061/090 059/089 058/087
2/T 20/B 01/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 081 052/087 053/090 054/092 055/090 054/087 052/084
3/T 21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 43/T 32/T
HDN 085 057/089 058/091 061/093 062/093 061/091 058/090
2/T 20/B 01/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 086 059/086 060/089 063/092 064/093 063/089 061/090
4/T 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 086 057/086 058/090 061/093 063/094 062/090 060/088
3/T 31/U 00/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 083 054/081 054/085 059/088 062/088 061/084 057/086
4/T 41/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 081 053/085 054/089 057/092 058/091 057/087 055/087
3/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
618 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
WE MADE A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15 UTC
ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED AT
BAKER AS OF 12 UTC. YESTERDAY/S FOG LIFTED BY ABOUT 14 UTC OR 8 AM
MDT AND AND THE OVERALL SITUATION IS SIMILAR...SO WE EXPECT FOG TO
AGAIN BURN OFF QUICKLY IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...THOUGH NEITHER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
TODAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH HAVRE
AND GREAT FALLS AS OF 09 UTC WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THANKS
TO THE PASSAGE OF A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE 3 MB/3 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AT 09 UTC AND WEAK SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ON OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL MT...BOTH
OF WHICH MAY SIGNAL A BIT BETTER FRONTAL PUSH AND STRONGER COOLING
IN ITS WAKE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WE THUS REDUCED HIGHS SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND PUSHED POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
ALONE WOULD SUGGEST. BOTH OF THOSE ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH...BUT THE CORE OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL STAY
IN CANADA AND 850-MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT VERY ROBUST LIKE WE
TYPICALLY SEE IN CASES WHERE GUIDANCE UNDERDOES FRONTAL SURGES. IT
THUS SEEMED APPROPRIATE TO NOT SWING TOO HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION
WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST UNTIL MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE SOLIDIFIED.
WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONCERNED...SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE LIKE
THE 06 UTC HRRR TAKES THE SHOWERS AROUND HARLOWTON AT 09 UTC EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SHOULD SERVE TO INCITE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON A
MORE SCATTERED BASIS FROM MILES CITY AND BROADUS EAST TO BAKER AND
EKALAKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...BUT 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 20 KT...SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF STRONG STORMS...BUT VERY LOW SEVERE RISK. THE
00 UTC SPC SSEO IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA WITH THE STORM COVERAGE
GREATEST IN FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 21 TO 00 UTC. THE SSEO
AND IN PARTICULAR THE OFTEN-WELL-PERFORMING NSSL WRF-ARW /WHICH IS
A COMPONENT OF THE SSEO/ ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TOO.
TONIGHT...SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY DIMINISH BY 03 UTC AS FORCING SHIFTS INTO ND AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN ITS WAKE. BOTH THE 00 UTC SPC SSEO OUTPUT
AND CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUPPORTED A
DRY FORECAST IN MANY AREAS AFTER 03 UTC /9 PM MDT/.
SUN...HIGHS WILL WARM BACK UP WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F IN
MOST AREAS UNDER HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. WE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS SOME
5 TO 8 F USING THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THE FORECAST
STILL LAGS THE WARMER BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE A BIT. WE EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
THE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO ACTIVITY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE US WILL
KEEP EARLY TO MID WEEK SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS SC AND SE MONTANA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN LIEU OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...BUT EITHER WAY CIRCULATION AROUND IT WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CONDUIT FOR THE TAP OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL...MUCH NEEDED...PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE BY NEXT WEEKEND...CUTTING
OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE AT KBHK AND
KMLS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG AND NORTHERLY
POST FRONTAL...GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/087 060/089 060/093 061/090 059/089 058/087
3/T 20/B 01/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 083 052/087 053/090 054/092 055/090 054/087 052/084
3/T 21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 43/T 32/T
HDN 086 057/089 058/091 061/093 062/093 061/091 058/090
3/T 20/B 01/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 086 059/086 060/089 063/092 064/093 063/089 061/090
4/T 20/U 00/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 087 057/086 058/090 061/093 063/094 062/090 060/088
3/T 31/U 00/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 084 054/081 054/085 059/088 062/088 061/084 057/086
4/T 41/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 083 053/085 054/089 057/092 058/091 057/087 055/087
3/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SRN ZONES THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWARD...PERHAPS EVEN MAKING A FEW
DISCONTINUOUS JUMPS. DESTABILIZATION WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THIS
PROCESS OVER NRN ZONES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT PRETTY LACKING
BUT SWRLY LL FLOW TO ENCOUNTER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LEADING TO CONVG
AND OVERRUNNING (AS ILLUSTRATED IN OUR FACEBOOK GRAPHIC THIS
MORNING). ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY WEARS ON IS THE FACT THAT THE LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION WILL DROP BELOW 3 FT TODAY...WELL WITHIN THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER. NO CHANGES THEN TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AND
ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL. SPC HIGHLIGHTS
AFOREMENTIONED SRN ZONES FOR LOW PROB WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE
EXTRA INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. RUC ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING A SMALL
TONGUE OF 2000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER FAR SRN ZONES SO THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SHOULD THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD HEATING THEN SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
BY FAR THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD FOR THE DAY AS WELL AS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FREEZING LEVEL AOB 15KFT LEADING TO DEEP LAYER
WARM RAIN GENERATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...IN WHAT HAS BECOME REPETITIVE THIS
SUMMER...ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST AS RENEWED TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT MUCH
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL DROP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE
VICINITY...PROVIDING NOT ONLY A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL...BUT A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ON WHICH LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SWLY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE S/SE SURFACE WINDS WILL DRIVE PWATS WELL ABOVE 2
INCHES...TOWARDS 2.3 INCHES...WHICH APPROACHES +2 SD`S FOR
MID-AUGUST. THIS ALSO DRIVES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WHICH HELPS TO SQUEEZE OUT THE DEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE COLUMN. COMBINE THIS WITH IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD
THE FRONT...SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A WASH-OUT. SREF PLUMES RANGE FROM 1 TO
AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF QPF DURING THIS 48-HR PERIOD...WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AROUND 2.5 INCHES. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CATEGORICAL POP WILL BE
INTRODUCED EVERYWHERE...DRYING OUT ONLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT HAS BEEN A
WET FEW WEEKS LOCALLY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS
ACROSS THE AREA...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
DURING THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE WITH SOME ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE HWO.
CLOUDS...RAIN...AND A WEAK WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO
NORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER...TO LOW 80S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE JUST AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
HOWEVER...AS MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGES OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL
PLAGUE THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...BUT A RETURN
TO DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRY THE
REGION OUT FROM A VERY WET MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A RETURN OF SW COLUMN FLOW
WILL INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN. TUE/WED WILL NOT BE AS
UNSETTLED OR WET AS EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION
WITH ABOVE-CLIMO POP ANTICIPATED TUESDAY...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHED QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY THE 500MB VORTEX
CENTER MOVING NE INTO CANADA. THIS LEAVES MORE DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS AS THE TROUGH RECEDES BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ZONALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO VALUES FOR
HIGHS...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST...AND THE ONE MOST LIKELY
TO FEATURE WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR HIGHS. MINS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO EARLY IN THE PERIOD THANKS TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER...BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR VSBYS IN BR AT KFLO/KLBT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE ESE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO KFLO/KLBT 14-15Z. MVFR EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS NEAR KFLO/KLBT.
HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM KLBT-KILM EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR FORECAST
REASONING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS NEEDED
TODAY BUT SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE A BUMPY 3-4 FEET AS E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL AND INCREASE A BIT INTO TONIGHT. COMPLICATING MARINE WX IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON THE WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER
KEEP ALERT TO RADAR TRENDS TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD REDUCE VSBYS ION HEAVY
RAIN TO BELOW 1NM AT TIMES. THE SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURES A MIX
OF SE WAVES 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND E-ESE WAVES OF 2-3
FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A MEANDERING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THIS PERIOD...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF COMPASS DIRECTIONS. SE WINDS
INITIALLY AROUND 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE S/SW AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN TURN WINDS TO THE W/NW AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SE GROUND
SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE CREATING THE WAVE SPECTRUM. NEAR SHORE
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
WAVE DIRECTION THAN WHAT WILL EXIST ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START TUESDAY
WILL LEAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK CREATING A
RETURN TO PREDOMINANT SW FLOW. SW WINDS WILL BECOME 10-15 KTS BY
TUESDAY AFTN...AND THEN SLOWLY RISE TO 15-20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE INCREASED
SW WINDS CAUSING A SHORTER AVERAGE WAVE PERIOD AND STEEPER FACES
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO
ADDRESS A STRONG ASTRONOMICAL TIDE PRESENTLY...AND NOT ONLY FOR
DOWNTOWN BUT ALSO AREA BEACHES WHERE HIGH-WATER RUN-UP IS LIKELY.
THIS ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
MORNING...BUT FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...HIGHER OF TODAYS
HIGH TIDES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
940 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...
UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS PARKED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HAS PRODUCED ESTIMATED 2+ INCHES...AND THE AXIS LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH 17Z PER LATEST RAP MODEL RUN. AS SUCH...WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES TO 100 AND QPF TO A WIDESPREAD 3/4 INCH THROUGH 18Z
ACCOMPANIED BY A FLOOD ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CONTINUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING COVERAGE PER HRRR/RAP.
SINCE ONGOING POPS INCREASE TO 100 THIS AFTERNOON...NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT NEEDED. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER WON`T MAKE MID 70S AND WILL BE MAKING DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM.
THE FIRST AREA ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HAS
BEEN ONGOING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FROM NW TO SE...DRIVEN IN PART BY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOC SHEAR AXIS MOVING SE ACROSS VA. FARTHER SOUTH...
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ADDITIONAL RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM SW TOWARD
THE NE AS LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS HELPED LIFT...COOL...
AND SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH TIME. IN BOTH AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE PROCESSES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ADDITION
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NC. FOR THE
NEAR TERM UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S...PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREV CYCLES...WITH
CLOUDY AND WET-AT-TIMES WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVER TOP OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE
INVOF OF THE NC/SC BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...A HYBRID CAD PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THE MODELS RECENTLY
HAVE BEEN RATHER ROBUST WITH QPF VALUES...A CONSENSUS OF WHICH HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN PAINTING A PICTURE OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 (OR
MORE) INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY HIGHEST
WEST. WHILE ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WHAT THE FINAL TOTALS WILL BE...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO...AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...MUCH
LIKE THE CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVED NORTH OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL SC A FEW HOURS AGO. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MODELS SHOW
THIS WAVE MOVING SE AND INDUCING A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION AND STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...VIGOROUS
1000-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOC WITH THIS FLOW...AND ASCENT
OVERTOP THE WEDGE (ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE)...SHOULD RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-
TIME HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES WHERE
CAD WILL BE DEEPER. THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL THAT WE GET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...IF THE MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...THEN URBAN...
POOR DRAINAGE...AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE A CONCERN
IN THE SHORTER TERM...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN
THE LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINLY AND LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THESE QPF VALUES...
ESP SINCE PRECIP HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO DEVELOP SO FAR COMPARED
TO WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. AS SUCH...WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO STRONGLY
WORD THE HWO. THEN IF THE PRECIP INDEED BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A QUICK FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SFC BOUNDARY AND BEST INSTABILITY POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTH...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (GENERALLY IN THE
70S...WARMEST SE) AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS (MID-UPR 60S).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SC AND
EASTERN NC. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS NEAR FROM SC TOWARD THE NC COAST...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC WEAKENS AND BACKS AROUND TO MORE EAST-
NORTH...REDUCING THE ISENTROPIC ACCENT OVER THE WEDGE AIRMASS.
THUS...THE PRIMARY FORCING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE....AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN..BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE DRIZZLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND NOT MUCH HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY...LOW/MID 70S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
WHILE THE PARENT LOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LIFTS OFF TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW SHOULD BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY CLEARS TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AIRMASS AND LOW CLOUDS
OUT...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO HELP.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY THIN ON TUESDAY BUT NOT BE
COMPLETELY GONE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT BETTER DEEP FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT OR A CHANCE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END BY WEEKS END...AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US AND A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS LIGHT RAIN HAS
STARTED TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESP EAST OF THE TRIAD REGION.
ASIDE FROM A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...MOST OF THE RAIN IS
LIGHT. EVEN WITH THIS RAIN...FLT CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR EAST
OF A LINE FROM KHNZ-KRDU-KRCZ. WEST OF THIS LINE WE`RE SEEING
NUMEROUS IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR
SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH FLT CONDITIONS
FURTHER DETERIORATING EAST. THEREAFTER...EXPECT IFR TO LOW-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
BEYOND 12Z SUN...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN
IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THIS
TIME. THEREAFTER...PRECIP AND REDUCED FLT CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MLM/NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SAT...BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVES SE ACROSS THAT AREA. RUC MODEL SEEMED TO
HANDLE PRECIP AREAS WELL IN THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SAME TIME
DECREASED POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THROUGH NOON. MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME OUTLIERS. HARD TO NAIL
DOWN EXACT AREAS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED LIKELY
POPS EVERYWHERE. DID NOT TWEAK TEMPS MUCH. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE WINDS JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.
PREV DISC...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY
WITH SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDER ONLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TOO STABLE. OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SETUP TONIGHT IS SIMILAR. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK VORT CENTERS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP SO HAVE LIKELY POPS
CONTINUING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 50% OUTER BANKS. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER THROUGHOUT SO INCLUDED A MENTION ALL
ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A WEAK STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH A DEEP FEED
OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF OVER OUR CWA
WITH THE AXIS OF THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE PIEDMONT.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF HAS EASTERN NC IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL OR LESS...AND IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY STRATIFORM
WITH ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...DO NOT
THINK A FLOOD WATCH IS MERITED AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS ANY SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL...ON TOP OF THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE TAPERING TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL APPEAR
TO BE FINALLY BE MUCH DRIER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL WITH LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR MID/LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES
TODAY AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT. ANY THUNDER IS FORECAST TO BE
ISOLATED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WET WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN WILL KEEP TAFS IN MOSTLY THE MVFR RANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH PERHAPS LOWER VSBYS IN DENSE FOG LATE AT
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 915 AM SAT...MAD SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WATERS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.
SEEING WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...USED A MIX OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT...ONE TODAY AND THE OTHER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FROM EAST
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE AND AM FORECASTING WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY EAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET PER LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WILL CAP AT 5
FEET AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...WINDS
BACK TO W/SW BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND DROP BACK TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS.
WILL HAVE MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL WATERS
TODAY...DUE MAINLY TO A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RSB/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...RSB/CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM.
THE FIRST AREA ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HAS
BEEN ONGOING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FROM NW TO SE...DRIVEN IN PART BY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOC SHEAR AXIS MOVING SE ACROSS VA. FARTHER SOUTH...
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ADDITIONAL RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM SW TOWARD
THE NE AS LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS HELPED LIFT...COOL...
AND SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH TIME. IN BOTH AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE PROCESSES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ADDITION
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NC. FOR THE
NEAR TERM UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN...HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S...PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREV CYCLES...WITH
CLOUDY AND WET-AT-TIMES WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVER TOP OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE
INVOF OF THE NC/SC BORDER. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...A HYBRID CAD PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THE MODELS RECENTLY
HAVE BEEN RATHER ROBUST WITH QPF VALUES...A CONSENSUS OF WHICH HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN PAINTING A PICTURE OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 (OR
MORE) INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY HIGHEST
WEST. WHILE ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WHAT THE FINAL TOTALS WILL BE...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO...AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...MUCH
LIKE THE CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT MOVED NORTH OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL SC A FEW HOURS AGO. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MODELS SHOW
THIS WAVE MOVING SE AND INDUCING A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION AND STRENGTHENING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...VIGOROUS
1000-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOC WITH THIS FLOW...AND ASCENT
OVERTOP THE WEDGE (ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE)...SHOULD RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-
TIME HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES WHERE
CAD WILL BE DEEPER. THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL LIKELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL THAT WE GET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...IF THE MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...THEN URBAN...
POOR DRAINAGE...AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE A CONCERN
IN THE SHORTER TERM...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN
THE LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINLY AND LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THESE QPF VALUES...
ESP SINCE PRECIP HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO DEVELOP SO FAR COMPARED
TO WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. AS SUCH...WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO STRONGLY
WORD THE HWO. THEN IF THE PRECIP INDEED BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A QUICK FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SFC BOUNDARY AND BEST INSTABILITY POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTH...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS (GENERALLY IN THE
70S...WARMEST SE) AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS (MID-UPR 60S).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SC AND
EASTERN NC. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS NEAR FROM SC TOWARD THE NC COAST...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC WEAKENS AND BACKS AROUND TO MORE EAST-
NORTH...REDUCING THE ISENTROPIC ACCENT OVER THE WEDGE AIRMASS.
THUS...THE PRIMARY FORCING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE....AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN..BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE DRIZZLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND NOT MUCH HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY...LOW/MID 70S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
WHILE THE PARENT LOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LIFTS OFF TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW SHOULD BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY CLEARS TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AIRMASS AND LOW CLOUDS
OUT...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO HELP.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY THIN ON TUESDAY BUT NOT BE
COMPLETELY GONE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT BETTER DEEP FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT OR A CHANCE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END BY WEEKS END...AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US AND A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS LIGHT RAIN HAS
STARTED TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESP EAST OF THE TRIAD REGION.
ASIDE FROM A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...MOST OF THE RAIN IS
LIGHT. EVEN WITH THIS RAIN...FLT CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR EAST
OF A LINE FROM KHNZ-KRDU-KRCZ. WEST OF THIS LINE WE`RE SEEING
NUMEROUS IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR
SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH FLT CONDITIONS
FURTHER DETERIORATING EAST. THEREAFTER...EXPECT IFR TO LOW-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
BEYOND 12Z SUN...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN
IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THIS
TIME. THEREAFTER...PRECIP AND REDUCED FLT CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM INDICATE THAT ONCE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA THAT IT MAY BE IT FOR CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MAY ALSO LOWER HIGHS A TAD ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
IT WAS A QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHWEST TN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES VERY MOIST WITH THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.14 INCHES. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALTHOUGH MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH SOME COOLING
FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THUS LESS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. HEAT INDEX READINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE MIDSOUTH. WILL STILL HAVE THE THREAT
OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY HELPING TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
LATEST MODELS ARE MOVING THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER INDICATED. TRIMMED THE POPS
BACK A LITTLE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE
TRIMMED BACK FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS.
BY WEDNESDAY IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER...SOME GORGEOUS SUMMERTIME
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PLACE THE MIDSOUTH IN DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNSEASONABLY MILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S...EVEN 50S ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES IN THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING VARYING SOLUTIONS AND PERHAPS SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
NOW KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO AN ALREADY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN IL TO JUST NORTH OF JBR. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...-SHRA
AND -TSRA HAVE ALREADY POPPED AND ARE NEAR TAF SITES MKL AND MEM.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MEM...MKL...AND JBR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 09/14Z OR PERSIST EVEN LONGER.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES
FOR A FEW HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON -TSRAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...MAINLY SOUTH OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL...SO AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR RAPIDLY EVOLVING
CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.
AC3
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR UPDATE TO DEW POINTS AND
HUMIDITY. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL PRODUCE HEAY
RAINFALL. SON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE PLUS
THE TYPICAL STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT...HAS LED TO VERY SPARSE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS LATER TODAY AND
THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN PLATEAU TO SE TN SHOULD AID IN INCREASED
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY THE POORLY PERFORMING
GFS MODEL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS EVEN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS REALLY DON`T ADVERTISE MORE THAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA. HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO DOWNPLAY POPS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BLEND INTO SIMILAR HIGHER POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WAS GENERALLY
THE TREND IN PREVIOUS POP GRIDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
WHICH HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO DEVELOP THAN THIS MORNING.
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
TODAY... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS SHEAR TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. SO MIGHT JUST SEE ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STRONG STORMS.
WILL MENTION THIS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.
OTHERWISE...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO MOIST TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN NAM MOS
MAXES. GFS MOS MAXES PROBABLY TOO WARM BUT LOOKED GREAT FOR
TONIGHT`S MINS.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WET PERIOD CONTINUES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREAK IN
RAIN...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TN VALLEY WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER REGION MONDAY. WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY NORTHEAST SECTIONS. DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TN
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEXT
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER NW FLOW LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF SW VA TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 72 87 70 / 70 60 60 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 71 85 69 / 80 60 60 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 70 84 69 / 70 60 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 67 82 65 / 80 60 70 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
623 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through tonight. A few isolated showers and storms are possible,
mainly near KABI-Abilene, but given the sparse nature and the
small odds of actually passing over a site, will not mention at
this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed Friday evening and
continue into the early morning hours across portions of the Big
Country and the Concho Valley. Several outflow boundaries have
rippled to the south. These boundaries have at least provided for
slightly cooler conditions behind the boundaries, with temperatures
in the mid 70s instead of the lower 80s ahead of them.
For today, similar to our discussion from yesterday morning, latest
TTU WRF and HRRR show at least isolated convection this afternoon
across portions of the Big Country, mainly north of I-20 where the
outflow boundaries will have an effect. Have again added slight
chance pops up there for today.
Highs on Friday afternoon were 1 or 2 degrees cooler than on
Thursday, and with the models suggesting the upper level ridge will
continue to gradually weaken across the area, temperatures should
cool another degree or two. Upper 90s to around 100 expected.
LONG TERM...
Upper level ridging will continue into the later part of next
week. However, not all showers and thunderstorms will be
suppressed with the upper ridging. A thunderstorm complex in the
Panhandle Sunday may move into the Big Country late Sunday night,
A weak cold front will also move into the Big Country Monday
afternoon, and push south as far as the I-10 corridor Monday
night. This front will also provide an additional low level focus
for thunderstorm development. Kept a slight chance of
thunderstorms going Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly in the
Concho Valley and areas southward, as the front washes out.
Temperatures Sunday will be near or slightly above 100 degrees.
Highs the rest of next week should be 2 to 4 degrees less hot, with
isolated storms and increased cloud cover.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100 76 100 76 96 / 20 10 5 20 20
San Angelo 100 74 100 74 98 / 5 10 5 5 20
Junction 100 75 99 75 98 / 5 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE UPSWING AND WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
MONSOON RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
AC CLOUDS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY AND
WESTERN PINAL COUNTY. DEW POINTS ARE BACK UP TO MODERATE MONSOON
LEVELS WITH MOST SURFACE STATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW 60S...ABOUT A
20 DEG BUMP FROM FRIDAYS READINGS. ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON STARTING
TO SEE SOME BUILDUPS ALONG THE RIM AND WHITE MTNS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES...ANOTHER SIGN THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK WITH US
FOR THE TIME BEING. WATER VAPOR STILL REFLECTING THE RATHER DRY
UPPER LEVEL AND WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM PHOENIX.
HAVE NOTICED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX METRO AFTER REVIEWING
LOCAL WEBCAMS AND RADAR IMAGERY. MOST HAVE BEEN IN THE WEST VALLEY
OR NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN. WITH THAT INFORMATION AT HAND...AND THE
INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE AFTERNOON POPS WERE BUMPED UP A
BIT...GIVING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL IS CALLING FOR A MCV TO GENERATE JUST SOUTH
OF THE MEXICO BORDER NEAR NOGALES. INDEED...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
SOME CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS ALONG THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
ALSO INDICATES A VERY PRONOUNCED AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH THROUGH PIMA COUNTY AND MAY
POSSIBLY SLIP INTO OUR AREA OF SOUTHWEST MARICOPA AND WESTERN PINAL
COUNTY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THAT...I DID ADD A BIT OF
BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MODERATE MONSOON CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE AND THAT
RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED FROM UTAH THROUGH TEXAS AND THE GOM. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT FEEDING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD IN MORE OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WILL START TO CUT OFF SOME OF THAT MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE ZONAL...STRETCHING FROM BAJA CA ACROSS THE MEXICO BORDERS OF
AZ AND NM AND OVER TEXAS. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE
MODERATE MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR EVEN BELOW NORMALS...DEPENDING ON
EXISTENCE OF ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ERODING MONSOON STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL
A BATCH OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS...BASES AOA 12 KFT MSL...WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES...WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ONE OUTFLOW
FROM DISTANT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AFTER 02Z. TOO
EARLY TO TELL JUST HOW MANY OR HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. IF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STAYS QUIET THEN THERE MAY NOT BE ANY STRONG OUTFLOWS
AFFECTING PHOENIX AREA TAFS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
HAS LATE BLOOMING STORMS THAT GET INTO PINAL COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
MARICOPA COUNTY THEN MORE LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS. IN
TURN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AT THE TAF SITES.
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW INTO PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...STEERING FLOW NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO ENCROACH ON VALLEY FLOOR. IN SHORT...NOT
LOOKING FOR AN ACTIVE NIGHT BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THAT
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN AIRFIELD
TO INSERT TSRA IN THE TAF.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL...AND
KBLH...
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...LOCALLY
WESTERLY OVER WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MAY SEE
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL TEND TO KEEP THEM AT BAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES LEFT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25-30 PERCENT ON THE LOWER DESERTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TRENDING CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...WATERS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
335 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THEN LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY MORNING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT TO THE SIERRA CREST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AN UPPER LOW MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE SF BAY. THIS DOES LITTLE TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS WEST. TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
ROSE INTO THE 90S THROUGH THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS...NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK...WITH THE VALLEY
TOPPING OUT RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST...WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER FRESNO COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS THAT FRESNO
COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...AS MU CAPE
VALES PEAK IN THE 600 TO 800 J/KG RANGE. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTION SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND 02Z.
BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER RIGHT AROUND THE
SF BAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CA AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FOUR CORNERS. SUNDAY
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH THE VALLEY EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW 100 AND THE KERN CO DESERT JUST TOUCHING THE CENTURY
MARK.
THE BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TREK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SAME AREA. WHILE 500-700 MB MU CAPE VALUES PEAK IN THE 100-200
J/KG RANGE FOR THE VALLEY AND KERN CO...THOSE ARE SUFFICIENT
VALUES TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH
INTO FRESNO...MADERA...AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STAGNANT. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE SF BAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY NORTH NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON...SHIFTING ALL ACTIVITY EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AGAIN...WE WANT TO REITERATE THAT THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND EXACT TIMING OF THE LOW MOVEMENT...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVEL CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG
BLANKETING MUCH OF THE VALLEY...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE...THUS THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST. AFTER TUESDAY EVENING...ALL MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER FLOW
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING WELL TO
THE EAST.
ON A SIDE NOTE...AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. IN FACT...BY TUESDAY DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUE THIS WAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AFTER 18Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 10 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN
COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS LOW.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 08-09 111:1981 85:1907 78:1990 55:1916
KFAT 08-10 110:1898 83:1997 78:1981 53:1900
KFAT 08-11 113:1898 85:1999 78:2012 54:1919
KBFL 08-09 112:1981 82:1999 86:1978 51:1916
KBFL 08-10 109:1929 83:1997 86:1978 56:1907
KBFL 08-11 111:1940 82:1999 83:1978 54:1932
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
214 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THEN LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY MORNING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT TO THE SIERRA CREST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AN UPPER LOW MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE SF BAY. THIS DOES LITTLE TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS WEST. TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
ROSE INTO THE 90S THROUGH THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS...NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK...WITH THE VALLEY
TOPPING OUT RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST...WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER FRESNO COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS THAT FRESNO
COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...AS MU CAPE
VALES PEAK IN THE 600 TO 800 J/KG RANGE. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTION SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND 02Z.
BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER RIGHT AROUND THE
SF BAY...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CA AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FOUR CORNERS. SUNDAY
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH THE VALLEY EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW 100 AND THE KERN CO DESERT JUST TOUCHING THE CENTURY
MARK.
THE BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TREK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SAME AREA. WHILE 500-700 MB MU CAPE VALUES PEAK IN THE 100-200
J/KG RANGE FOR THE VALLEY AND KERN CO...THOSE ARE SUFFICIENT
VALUES TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH
INTO FRESNO...MADERA...AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STAGNANT. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE SF BAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY NORTH NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON...SHIFTING ALL ACTIVITY EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AGAIN...WE WANT TO REITERATE THAT THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND EXACT TIMING OF THE LOW MOVEMENT...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVEL CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG
BLANKETING MUCH OF THE VALLEY...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE...THUS THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST. AFTER TUESDAY EVENING...ALL MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER FLOW
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING WELL TO
THE EAST.
ON A SIDE NOTE...AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. IN FACT...BY TUESDAY DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUE THIS WAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AFTER 18Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 9 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND MADERA COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS LOW.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 08-09 111:1981 85:1907 78:1990 55:1916
KFAT 08-10 110:1898 83:1997 78:1981 53:1900
KFAT 08-11 113:1898 85:1999 78:2012 54:1919
KBFL 08-09 112:1981 82:1999 86:1978 51:1916
KBFL 08-10 109:1929 83:1997 86:1978 56:1907
KBFL 08-11 111:1940 82:1999 83:1978 54:1932
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE TOMORROW NIGHT. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE MAIN
IMPACT HAS BEEN FOR PERIODIC INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA WITH ANY SHOWERS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT TERM TO MATCH CURRENT OBS,
LIKELY SOME MIXING ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. BOTH
THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THIS TREND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT MAKING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN SOME
VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF THE GIRDS GIVEN THE WEAK SIGNAL
FROM THE LAMP AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SETS ALONG WITH BROAD DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SHOWING UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV
GUIDANCE ON THE LOWS BUT ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LOCAL MESOSCALE
EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING THEN THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELED 925 MB TEMPS INDICATE THAT IT MIGHT BE
HARD TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED BY THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE SETS SO THE FORECAST UNDERCUTS THESE GUIDANCE SETS BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED LOWER THAN
MET/MAV IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING. ANOTHER
NICE SUMMER DAY OVERALL!
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED OFF SHORE, WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION. WITH THE
INCREASED THICKNESSES, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE FLOW, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY,
COULD SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST
OF OUR REGION MOVE INTO DELMARVA AND SPREAD NORTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS IS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST INTEREST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH, THERE IS A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN. THE QUESTION IS THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, AND
CONSEQUENTLY, THE HIGHEST RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE CMC, NAM OR PREVIOUS RUN
OF THE ECMWF, BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FORECAST FAVORS THE LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS, AS THIS WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL SET UP FOR A BLOCKING
PATTERN, AND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF RECENT TROUGHS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AS THE ON SHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO A COOL, STABLE, BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER,
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS, BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD BE 30 TO 40 KT. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, ANY SEVERE THREAT IS
VERY MINIMAL GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ABOVE 2
INCHES POSSIBLY IN SOUTHERN NJ. HOWEVER, AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS, STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
FAST (GENERALLY ABOVE 20KT). THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EITHER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
AND AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AND IN ITS WAKE, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE DRIER AIR
AND A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE, SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ANOTHER GREAT WEATHER FLYING DAY IS IN PROGRESS AROUND THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEARBY. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SEA- BREEZE
ACTIVITY FOR KACY AND KMIV SHIFTING THE WIND TO SE FOR A TIME. AS OF
19Z THE SEA BREEZE HAS REACHED ACY.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER VFR DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5,000 FEET. WINDS MAY
START OFF VARIABLE BEFORE TURING TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY GOES ON. SOME EARLY MORNING (7-11Z)
PATCHY FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT RDG,
MIV OR ACY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING IS LOW AND THE 18Z
TAFS REFLECT THAT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...BEGINNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BY MID DAY, LOW LEVEL
STRATUS LEADING TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE
BEFORE IT SPREADS WEST. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL RISK ISOLATED TSRA
COULD APPROACH KILG AND KRDG LATE IN THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CONSISTENT MVFR CEILING,
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO, EXPECT
TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA AND TSRA.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. A FEW LINGERING
SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE. EXPECT AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS EARLY
IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. COULD HAVE BREEZY WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS
HAVE BEEN AROUND TWO FEET ON THE OCEAN AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN AROUND
TWO FEET THROUGH TOMORROW. THINK WAVEWATCH MAY BE SLIGHTLY TO LOW
BUT STILL TWO FEET SEEMS REASONABLE. WINDS WILL EB VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. WIND GUSTS
FREQUENTLY NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, WAVE HEIGHTS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BE SLOW TO FALL BELOW
5FT EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PROJECTED TIDAL DEPARTURES FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE SHOULD FALL
SHORT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL
LEVELS COMBINED WITH A STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW,
ALLOWING FOR A GREATER POSITIVE DEPARTURE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
BECOMES MORE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/TONIGHT...
DIURNAL CONVECTION GOT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START THAN ON FRIDAY. BY
MID AFTN NMRS SHRAS/SCT TSRAS WERE PUSHING ACRS THE FL TURNPIKE WITH
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BDRYS RACING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TOWARD
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS LARGELY PINNED NEAR
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS ONLY A FEW CSTL SITES HAD REPORTED A
WNDSHFT FM SW TO SE.
COLLISION BTWN THE OUTFLOW BDRYS AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
OCCUR WELL BEFORE SUNSET AND SHOULD BURN OFF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY BY MID EVNG. LATEST OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WX PATTERN WITH SHALLOW MID LVL LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.5-6.5C/KM...
STEEPEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE SOME DRIER MID LVL AIR HAS
WORKED ITS WAY UP FROM S FL. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID LVL VORT
AXIS HAS SET UP ALONG THE W FL COAST THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 5-10KTS
OF S/SW FLOW. WHILE THIS IS PRODUCING SOME PVA ACRS E CENT FL...ITS
MAGNITUDE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL DO LITTLE TO ENHANCE OVERALL STORM
STRENGTH.
WILL GO WITH A PRE 1ST PD TO COVER ONGOING PRECIP...ENDING PRECIP BY
02Z. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AFT MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN
TEMPS TO DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF SFC DEWPOINTS...CURRENTLY IN
THE M/U70S.
UPCOMING WEEK...(PREV DISC)
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT SETS UP FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE
DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE SUPPRESSED BACK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA/FLORIDA STRAITS AS THE BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED. THIS PATTERN HAS BECOME THE DEFAULT SO FAR THIS
SUMMER.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHERE IT HANGS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AGAINST THE STOUT ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS. PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY HANG UP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST MOST AFTERNOONS IF IT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AT
ALL...AND THEN LIKELY ONLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT KEEPING THE
FRONTAL MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND INSTEAD BRINGING THE DRY AIR
POCKET CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE
PENINSULA. SO DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FLOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS AROUND CLIMO AT 30-40 PERCENT AS THIS WOULD KEEP SOME
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER IT WILL BE THE SMALL DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RIDGE AXIS/STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW/LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE STORM COVERAGE AND
THESE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 10/00Z...SFC WNDS E/SE 5-10KTS CSTL SITES...S/SW INTERIOR
SITES...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS WITH OCNL SFC WND G25-30KTS...MVG
NE ARND 10KTS. BTWN 10/00Z-10/02Z...SFC WNDS BCMG S ARND 5KTS...SCT
MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 10/02Z...VFR ALL SITES...S/SW SFC
WNDS BLO 5KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL COLLAPSE WITHIN AN HR OR TWO OF
SUNSET WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE S/SW AOB 10KTS...SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS ARND 9SEC. OFFSHORE
MVG TSTMS THRU EARLY EVNG.
SUN-THU...PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE NE CONUS WILL COMBINE
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO N FL TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED NEAR OR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NRN BAHAMAS
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL ACRS THE LCL ATLC WITH SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE. GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING...OR AT LEAST LIMITING IT TO A FEW HRS OF
AFTN S/SE FLOW ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EACH AFTN. OFFSHORE MVG
AFTN/EVNG TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY BOATING THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 93 76 93 / 30 40 30 30
MCO 75 95 75 96 / 20 30 20 30
MLB 76 91 75 92 / 30 40 30 20
VRB 75 92 74 91 / 30 40 30 20
LEE 76 95 76 95 / 20 30 20 30
SFB 76 96 77 96 / 20 30 20 30
ORL 76 95 76 95 / 20 30 20 30
FPR 74 92 74 92 / 20 40 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......SHARP/LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS LOCATED AT RATHER HIGH LATITUDES
TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS ALSO DISPLACED FAIRLY FAR TO THE NORTH ALIGNED
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A BROAD BUT WEAK EXPANSE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY AND HIGH LEVEL
400-250MB ANALYSIS SUGGEST A SUBTLE UPPER LOW FEATURE IMPINGING ON
THE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...HOWEVER NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
ENERGY/VORTICITY FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND AS IT STAYS ON A QUICK WESTWARD PATH OVER CUBA/FL STRAITS
AND THEN OFF INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT WAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS TRANSITIONS EASTWARD WITH SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT/DIURNAL HEATING...AND IS NOW MAINLY EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTY LOOK TO GET QUITE WET THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE BEACHES ARE NOW
FOR THE MOST PART DRY WITHIN THE DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED
FLOW BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER COMING BACK TOWARD THE COAST WITH ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING...THE BEACHES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TONIGHT...
EVENING STORMS FADE WITH SUNSET...SETTING UP A MOSTLY DRY
PERIOD OVER THE INTERIOR. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL SHOWING AN AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING FROM THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWEST TO THE WATERS
WEST OF TAMPA BAY. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET AN ACTIVE AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST COASTAL WATERS...AND THE FLOW
WOULD TEND TO BRING THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL FAVOR PINELLAS/COASTAL SARASOTA COUNTIES NORTHWARD
FOR PRE-DAWN/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SCT STORMS MIGRATING TO THE COAST
IN THE POP GRIDS. CURRENTLY SHOWING 30-40% POPS FOR THIS FAVORED
AREA AFTER 09-12Z. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CERTAINLY CONTINUED TO
SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN JUST
WHERE EACH MEMBER HAS THE BEST FOCUS FOR LIFT MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REALLY CLOSE IN ON A SPECIFIC AREA FOR HIGHER POPS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT INCREASE/DECREASE
THINGS BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS/RADAR TRENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR A WARM AND HUMID AUGUST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES.
SUNDAY...
THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THE ONSHORE MIGRATING SHOWER THREAT
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS.
ONCE THE TERRESTRIAL HEATING REACHES A POINT THAT WE BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LOCAL SEA-BREEZES...THE RESULTING DISRUPTION OF FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN ANY CONVERGENCE BAND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND QUICKLY
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF COASTAL STORMS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY...THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE SHOULD FOCUS THE BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE
MIDDLE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG AND LIKELY FURTHER EAST
FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS
IT LOOKS NOW...ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CONVECTIVE FAVORABILITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO DECREASE OUR DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR
WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
QUITE A STAGNANT PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY WITH ACTIVITY STARTING ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND FROM MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. BEST CHANCE TO STILL SEE A BRIEF VIS/CIG RESTRICTION WITH
A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE KLAL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LATE AT NIGHT APPROACHING
DAWN...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MIGRATING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
KPIE...KTPA...AND KSRQ WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED VCSH/VCTS AFTER 09-12Z FOR THESE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS
LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL REGIONS...ESPECIALLY
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN PUSH INLAND FOR EACH
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER DISPERSION
INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH 75 SUNDAY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL...ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OPEN FIELDS EACH MORNING...BUT SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 92 79 90 / 20 30 10 20
FMY 75 93 77 93 / 20 40 10 40
GIF 76 94 76 92 / 40 50 20 40
SRQ 81 90 78 91 / 20 30 10 20
BKV 71 93 73 91 / 20 40 20 40
SPG 80 91 81 90 / 30 40 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
114 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
406 AM CDT
QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE GULF RETURN FLOW MOSTLY SHUT OFF...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...INHIBITING THE EFFECTS OF
FAVORABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL SUCH WAVES...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OF THESE COULD BE POTENT ENOUGH AND TAP INTO JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED BUT UNEXPECTED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WHEN MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF
TSRA/SHRA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE
IS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD. THE CENTER
OF THE LOW ALSO COMES CLOSEST TO THE LOCAL AREA AT THE LEAST
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WRAPPING UP AND DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CYCLONIC GRADIENT LOCALLY...TURN WINDS
NORTHWEST...LIKELY SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS...AND MAKE TUESDAY THE COOLEST AND BREEZIEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK.
AN APPROACHING RIDGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES...AND SLIGHTLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SLIDES AWAY TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD
ALONG A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO DOWNPLAY THE TSRA
CHANCES UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL
ACTUALLY DEPART.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 11-13 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO EASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TOMORROW AND WEAKEN SOME WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES
ON ITS EASTWARD DRIFT AS WELL...RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FEET
TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AT THIS TIME KEEPING THE TAFS
DRY AS THE FORCING IS FAIRLY BENIGN AND THINK ANY COVERAGE WOULD
BE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME OUTLYING AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY
FOG...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH THE CLOUDS
DRIFTING NORTH. IF CLOUDS ARE LESS...KRFD AND KDPA MAY SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 18Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
142 AM CDT
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TO PLACE A MORE
FOCUSED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE LAKE WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS WHICH WILL TURN ONSHORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH
STEADIER WINDS SOUTH AND LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW NORTH. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE THOUGH AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. FORECAST GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS BUT IT DOES LOOK TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY REMAIN RATHER WEAK
MONDAY DESPITE THE DEVELOPING LOW SO A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE LOW DEEPENS BRINGING A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR DETAILS
TO CHANGE BUT 20-25 KT SPEEDS LOOK PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES THANKS TO THE LONG
NORTH FETCH. RIDGING THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE PROBABLY BRINGING
CONDITIONS NOT UNLIKE THOSE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WITH LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS AND GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Pesky surface low located over the western tip of Kentucky this
morning. Scattered showers continue to drift northwest across our
forecast area as far as Petersburg. Latest HRRR continues this
into the afternoon, primarily over east central Illinois. Further
north, skies have cleared in the extreme northern CWA, although
RAP guidance suggests the cloud deck may surge a bit further north
again over the next few hours.
Have sent an update to tweak the rain chances today, and pull back
the thunder threat to the extreme southeast CWA. Also have lowered
highs a few degrees except in the far north, as the clouds should
be rather persistent through the day, and current temperatures are
only in the upper 60s to lower 70s under the cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Surface low pressure remains centered near the southern tip of
Illinois this morning with scattered light showers wrapping around
the low into east central Illinois. Thin fog has developed from
around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville and points southward where
lightest winds and higher dew points are noted in surface
observations. The low will continue to move very slowly eastward
today. Weak lift and saturated conditions through today will allow
for additional isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms in
east central and southeast Illinois before a shortwave ridge
brings enough subsidence this evening to end precipitation
overnight. Temperatures still look on track to peak out just over
80 degrees for most of central Illinois today, but any areas with
persistent cloud cover and shower activity may fall short.
Persistent northeast winds 5-10 mph will continue for the next day
as a result of the pressure gradient around the low to the south
of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Little change on Sunday with weak low pressure about 1014 mb over
western KY/lower Ohio river valley and 1020 mb high pressure over
Lake Huron. Biggest difference with 00Z models occurs Sunday night
where GFS model is an outlier with MCS and associated heavy QPF of
2-4.5 inches of rain tracking east across central IL Sunday night
and did not follow this solution. Did increase slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms further north across central IL Sunday
afternoon with chance pops in far SE IL near Wabash river. Added
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to SW areas Sunday
night. Models keep surface boundary south of IL Sunday and Sunday
night so think if MCS does develop it will be further south on
Sunday night. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms south of IL early
next week. Sunday and Monday appear to be the warmest days with
highs in the lower to middle 80s which is closer to normal for mid
August. Humid too with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s
and highest in southern counties.
00z forecast model suite continue to show a strong upper level
trof digging into the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley Monday and
Tuesday with a cold front moving SE through central/SE IL during
Monday with surface low pressure deepening NE into lower MI Monday
night. Cold front moves east into Ohio and eastern KY by Tuesday
afternoon. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms still appears
to be during the day Monday and have 30-50% pops then with highest
pops in southeast IL. Lingered a small chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tue over eastern IL with best chances of
convection shifting east of IL with the cold front. Cooler highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s Tue and a bit cooler on Wed.
Dry conditions expected Tue night through Thu evening as weak high
pressure 1021 mb over western Canadian Rockies settles over IL by
Wed evening. This will also bring less humid air into central/SE
IL with more comfortable dew points of 55-60F on Wed and Thu.
Upper level trof pulls away from Illinois late next week as
temperatures and humidity levels slowly rise, with surface high
pressure ridge drifting east of IL and getting return southerly flow
by end of next week. Disturbances in the WNW flow to track across
the Midwest late next week and return chances of showers and
thunderstorms especially over western and northern areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MVFR ceilings persisting at KSPI/KDEC with IFR conditions not too
far south. North edge of the MVFR conditions continues to be
suppressed a bit southward, and am expecting these two sites to
lift above 3000 feet over the next couple hours. After that, VFR
conditions expected to prevail the remainder of the forecast
period. Persistent east/northeast flow to continue into Sunday
morning due to slow moving low pressure over Kentucky. Threat for
convection expected to increase later in the day on Sunday. Have
added some VCSH at KDEC/KCMI late morning, but too much
uncertainty elsewhere to add at this time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1117 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
406 AM CDT
QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE GULF RETURN FLOW MOSTLY SHUT OFF...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...INHIBITING THE EFFECTS OF
FAVORABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL SUCH WAVES...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ONE OF THESE COULD BE POTENT ENOUGH AND TAP INTO JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED BUT UNEXPECTED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WHEN MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF
TSRA/SHRA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE
IS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD. THE CENTER
OF THE LOW ALSO COMES CLOSEST TO THE LOCAL AREA AT THE LEAST
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WRAPPING UP AND DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CYCLONIC GRADIENT LOCALLY...TURN WINDS
NORTHWEST...LIKELY SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS...AND MAKE TUESDAY THE COOLEST AND BREEZIEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK.
AN APPROACHING RIDGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES...AND SLIGHTLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SLIDES AWAY TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD
ALONG A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO DOWNPLAY THE TSRA
CHANCES UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL
ACTUALLY DEPART.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KT THROUGH TODAY. SPEEDS DIMINISHING
BELOW 10 KT AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS MODESTLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING. THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AND NORTHWEST INDIANA SO
SOME GUSTINESS IS LIKELY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
FRIDAY. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL TAKE OVER TURNING GYY NORTHEAST
AROUND MIDDAY AND ORD AND MDW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION CONTINUING.
VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH INTERMITTENT HIGHER COVERAGE OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LOWER VFR CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A
MYRIAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
MDB/KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KT TODAY...MEDIUM IN TIMING AND ON GUST SPEED.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA LATE.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA LATE.
FRIDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
142 AM CDT
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TO PLACE A MORE
FOCUSED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE LAKE WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS WHICH WILL TURN ONSHORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH
STEADIER WINDS SOUTH AND LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW NORTH. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE THOUGH AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. FORECAST GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS BUT IT DOES LOOK TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY REMAIN RATHER WEAK
MONDAY DESPITE THE DEVELOPING LOW SO A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE LOW DEEPENS BRINGING A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR DETAILS
TO CHANGE BUT 20-25 KT SPEEDS LOOK PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES THANKS TO THE LONG
NORTH FETCH. RIDGING THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE PROBABLY BRINGING
CONDITIONS NOT UNLIKE THOSE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WITH LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS AND GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
927 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Pesky surface low located over the western tip of Kentucky this
morning. Scattered showers continue to drift northwest across our
forecast area as far as Petersburg. Latest HRRR continues this
into the afternoon, primarily over east central Illinois. Further
north, skies have cleared in the extreme northern CWA, although
RAP guidance suggests the cloud deck may surge a bit further north
again over the next few hours.
Have sent an update to tweak the rain chances today, and pull back
the thunder threat to the extreme southeast CWA. Also have lowered
highs a few degrees except in the far north, as the clouds should
be rather persistent through the day, and current temperatures are
only in the upper 60s to lower 70s under the cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Surface low pressure remains centered near the southern tip of
Illinois this morning with scattered light showers wrapping around
the low into east central Illinois. Thin fog has developed from
around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville and points southward where
lightest winds and higher dew points are noted in surface
observations. The low will continue to move very slowly eastward
today. Weak lift and saturated conditions through today will allow
for additional isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms in
east central and southeast Illinois before a shortwave ridge
brings enough subsidence this evening to end precipitation
overnight. Temperatures still look on track to peak out just over
80 degrees for most of central Illinois today, but any areas with
persistent cloud cover and shower activity may fall short.
Persistent northeast winds 5-10 mph will continue for the next day
as a result of the pressure gradient around the low to the south
of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
Little change on Sunday with weak low pressure about 1014 mb over
western KY/lower Ohio river valley and 1020 mb high pressure over
Lake Huron. Biggest difference with 00Z models occurs Sunday night
where GFS model is an outlier with MCS and associated heavy QPF of
2-4.5 inches of rain tracking east across central IL Sunday night
and did not follow this solution. Did increase slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms further north across central IL Sunday
afternoon with chance pops in far SE IL near Wabash river. Added
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to SW areas Sunday
night. Models keep surface boundary south of IL Sunday and Sunday
night so think if MCS does develop it will be further south on
Sunday night. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms south of IL early
next week. Sunday and Monday appear to be the warmest days with
highs in the lower to middle 80s which is closer to normal for mid
August. Humid too with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s
and highest in southern counties.
00z forecast model suite continue to show a strong upper level
trof digging into the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley Monday and
Tuesday with a cold front moving SE through central/SE IL during
Monday with surface low pressure deepening NE into lower MI Monday
night. Cold front moves east into Ohio and eastern KY by Tuesday
afternoon. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms still appears
to be during the day Monday and have 30-50% pops then with highest
pops in southeast IL. Lingered a small chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tue over eastern IL with best chances of
convection shifting east of IL with the cold front. Cooler highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s Tue and a bit cooler on Wed.
Dry conditions expected Tue night through Thu evening as weak high
pressure 1021 mb over western Canadian Rockies settles over IL by
Wed evening. This will also bring less humid air into central/SE
IL with more comfortable dew points of 55-60F on Wed and Thu.
Upper level trof pulls away from Illinois late next week as
temperatures and humidity levels slowly rise, with surface high
pressure ridge drifting east of IL and getting return southerly flow
by end of next week. Disturbances in the WNW flow to track across
the Midwest late next week and return chances of showers and
thunderstorms especially over western and northern areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A mix of IFR/MVFR visibilities in light fog from around KIJX-KLWV
southward through central IL this morning, along with areas of
MVFR cigs. To the north, primarily VFR conditions are in place
with ceilings generally BKN040-060. Isold -shra in east central
IL due to saturated conditions and weak lift associated with a
low to the south of IL. For today, expecting improvements in
visibilities as well as increasing ceiling heights with daytime
heating. A few -SHRA/TSRA in east central/southeast IL could bring
briefly MVFR cigs/vsbys but otherwise VFR conditions. After 02Z,
shower activity ending but sky cover SCT-BKN040-050 continuing.
Winds NE5-10 kts through the 24 hour TAF forecast period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
TON-SUN: MESOSCALE AGAIN COMPLICATING WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY THAT LINGERS FROM CONVECTION THAT
MOVED INTO AND DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT...APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. RUC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
WEAK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM KEMP TO KCNK BETWEEN 22-23
UTC AND ADVECTING IT WEST SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AT
PRESENT...UNSURE HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL INTERPLAY WITH
CONVECTION THAT SYNOPTIC/MESO MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. A LARGE VORTEX
WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS KANSAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
COMPACT SHORT WAVE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE
VORTEX...AND JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND
ACROSS KANSAS. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT
STORMS...FOR TIME BEING DECIDED TO USE SREF/SSEO AS GUIDE FOR
TIMING AND COVERAGE...WHICH BOTH ACCOUNT FOR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL DICTATE PARTICULARS OF CONVECTIONS
TRACK...HOWEVER EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF LARGE SCALE VORTEX MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS BROADSCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
EAST OF CWA BY 00 UTC ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION...WITH GUIDANCE LOOKING
REASONABLE.
MON-TUES: ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
AS UPPER VORTEX MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA...WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS
BEEN LINGER OVER PLAINS RETROGRADES WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD AREA...WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS EASTERN CANADA/U.S. VORTEX MOVES INTO THE
MARITIME REGION...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL. KANSAS/CWA WILL REMAIN ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY.
GEFS/OPERATIONAL MED-RANGE MODELS HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN...CHANCE
THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
AT THE MOMENT...NO REAL CLEAR CUT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVERGENCE. WILL LEAVE OUT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION. DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD
HAVE A BIT MORE UPPER SUPPORT TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVE THROUGH.
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN ANTICIPATED
SHORT DURATION AT ANY SITE...AND TIMING CHALLENGES THIS FAR OUT...
OPTED TO GO LONG PERIOD OF VCTS AND UPDATE WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. PERIOD OF MVFR AND BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 89 68 87 / 50 30 20 10
HUTCHINSON 69 88 67 87 / 60 20 20 10
NEWTON 69 87 67 86 / 60 30 20 10
ELDORADO 69 89 67 86 / 50 40 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 90 69 87 / 50 40 30 10
RUSSELL 67 85 65 85 / 70 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 86 66 85 / 70 20 10 10
SALINA 69 87 66 87 / 70 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 69 87 67 87 / 60 30 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 73 91 69 88 / 50 50 40 10
CHANUTE 71 88 68 86 / 50 50 40 10
IOLA 70 87 68 85 / 60 50 40 10
PARSONS-KPPF 72 90 69 87 / 50 50 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. METARS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA SHOW VISIBILITIES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. GRIDS AND ZONES
HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO INCREASE AREAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH 1/4SM ALREADY FROM KIT CARSON
COUNTY TO SHERMAN COUNTY. I USED SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT (WHILE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS)...AND 06Z NAM FOR COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG. HRRR/RAP DO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF FOG IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE OFF FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED/OBSERVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ANY STORMS MIGRATING EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
QUICKLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS PERIOD AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT
ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AGAIN
CONFINED MAINLY TO EASTERN COLORADO. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN LATE WEEK AND WITH DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH SITES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG AT KMCK. VISIBILITY AND CIGS AT
KMCK MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. METARS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA SHOW VISIBILITIES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. GRIDS AND ZONES
HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO INCREASE AREAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH 1/4SM ALREADY FROM KIT CARSON
COUNTY TO SHERMAN COUNTY. I USED SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT (WHILE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS)...AND 06Z NAM FOR COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG. HRRR/RAP DO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF FOG IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE OFF FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED/OBSERVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOG POTENTIAL WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND EAST. TD VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NE/KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ACT AS MAIN AREAS
FOR INITIATION. BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEER PROFILES LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
EAST AS A COLD POOL DRIVEN CLUSTER/COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND TRANSITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND
1.5")...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SHEER PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
MORE OF A STRONG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREATS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO GOING TO
LINGER OVER OUR CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IMPACTS HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT...THERE REALLY ISNT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONTAL ZONE. I TRENDED POPS DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TIMING TO DIURNALLY FAVORED
PERIODS WITH CINH HAS BEST CHANCE TO WEAKEN. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH TEMPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...SO I USED CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME
COOLING OF HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ASSOCIATED FROPA SO STUCK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
FIELDS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD. WITH LEE TROUGH IN PLACE DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE SOME
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTED
BY GEFS SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH SITES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG AT KMCK. VISIBILLITY AND CIGS AT
KMCK MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH THE HIGH REACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO
EASILY OVERCOME ANY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
IN GENERAL COMPARED TO YSTRDY. STORM MOTION HAS FALLEN OFF A BIT
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE THAT MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME SAYS
OTHERWISE. THIS DAILY TREND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
LOWER/MID 90 HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND HEAD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WEST. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE CWA IN AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING RIGHT
OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM AREAL ENHANCEMENT FOR
A FEW DAYS. DOES NOT APPEAR SVR WX WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH WETBULB HT
14KFT AND ABOVE AS WELL AS VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THE TAF SITES...PRIMARILY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY PRIOR TO AND AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING FROM KHUM AND KMCB. 18
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF
MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY STALL
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 18
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 93 74 92 / 20 50 20 50
BTR 76 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 40
ASD 75 93 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
MSY 77 92 78 91 / 20 50 20 40
GPT 78 91 78 92 / 20 50 20 40
PQL 74 91 73 91 / 20 50 30 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
327 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE A CLOSED
LOW OVER NE SODAK...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
THE CANADIAN WAVE HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
CANADIAN WAVE WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE SODAK
UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER MN AND WASHES OUT IN THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN
TROUGH. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT NW MN SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
SLOWLY SINKING INTO CENTRAL MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN TREND FROM MODELS THIS EVENING WAS TO SLOW THE EWRD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIP...AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT KEEP ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SLOWER EWRD PROGRESSION MAKES SENSE AS WELL
WHEN LOOKING AT DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
DISLODGE THIS DRY AIR FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON EAST. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HI-RES MODELS ON PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY IN ERN
SODAK/WRN MN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY OUT WEST...WHILE ALSO LIMITING THE EWRD PROGRESSION OF POPS
THROUGH THE WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD...KEEPING THE EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH AREAS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR...LIMITED CAPE...AND LOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL MOST OF THE DAY...WITH 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
NOTED FROM NE SODAK INTO YELLOW MEDICINE/LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES.
MAKES SENSE WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...FAIRLY STATIONARY FORCING...AND
PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH NOT AS HIGH ON
AMOUNTS...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE SAME AREA
FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL...SO GAVE BOTH POPS AND QPF A
BIG BOOST IN WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO MN...WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL DAY WEST OF I-35. HAVE CONTINUED
TO FAVOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AS THIS IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW THE NOSE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SODAK WILL BE MUCH LESS
DEFINED...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BRACKETED BY SOME PCPN CHANCES ON
EITHER END... WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. WE/LL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY JUST TO
OUR EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
BRING SOME PCPN THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER... THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THINGS THEN DE-AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER... THERE ARE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE BY THAT POINT... AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
HASN/T BEEN THE GREATEST IN ANY OF THE MODEL SUITES. WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT
ON THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT IN THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IN TERMS OF DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER... THE
THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS STILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF FORCING THROUGH
THE AREA... WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA GIVEN THE DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. PCPN WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
INTO MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. WE/LL THEN SEE RETURN FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF/WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK THROUGH THE AREA AFTER WE SEE THE WARM ADVECTION AND WORK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH... AND SUGGESTS IT COULD BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MORE OF
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AND PROGRESSIVE LOOK TO THINGS. HOWEVER... IN
EITHER CASE IT LOOKS LIKE WE/D NEED TO LINGER SOME POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR KABR. THIS WILL KEEP ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 6Z...WHEN THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO
WRN MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS IN
THE TAF PERIOD TO HOLD BACK ANY PRECIP MENTION INTO THE VCSH OR
SHRA RANGE. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AT WRN TERMINALS AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WE WILL BE MAINTAINING A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SE WIND.
KMSP...MAY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
ANYTHING OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON.
ANY PRECIP SEEN SUNDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
EXPECTED OUT IN WRN MN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH DOES NOT
WANDER OVER TO ERN MN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. HENCE THE PROB30 FOR
TSRA STARTING AT 20Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA IN MORNING. BECOMING VFR IN
AFTERNOON NNW WINDS 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
140 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SRN ZONES THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWARD...PERHAPS EVEN MAKING A FEW
DISCONTINUOUS JUMPS. DESTABILIZATION WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THIS
PROCESS OVER NRN ZONES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT PRETTY LACKING
BUT SWRLY LL FLOW TO ENCOUNTER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LEADING TO CONVG
AND OVERRUNNING (AS ILLUSTRATED IN OUR FACEBOOK GRAPHIC THIS
MORNING). ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY WEARS ON IS THE FACT THAT THE LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION WILL DROP BELOW 3 FT TODAY...WELL WITHIN THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER. NO CHANGES THEN TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AND
ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL. SPC HIGHLIGHTS
AFOREMENTIONED SRN ZONES FOR LOW PROB WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE
EXTRA INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. RUC ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING A SMALL
TONGUE OF 2000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER FAR SRN ZONES SO THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SHOULD THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD HEATING THEN SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
BY FAR THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD FOR THE DAY AS WELL AS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FREEZING LEVEL AOB 15KFT LEADING TO DEEP LAYER
WARM RAIN GENERATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...IN WHAT HAS BECOME REPETITIVE THIS
SUMMER...ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST AS RENEWED TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT MUCH
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL DROP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE
VICINITY...PROVIDING NOT ONLY A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL...BUT A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ON WHICH LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SWLY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE S/SE SURFACE WINDS WILL DRIVE PWATS WELL ABOVE 2
INCHES...TOWARDS 2.3 INCHES...WHICH APPROACHES +2 SD`S FOR
MID-AUGUST. THIS ALSO DRIVES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WHICH HELPS TO SQUEEZE OUT THE DEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE COLUMN. COMBINE THIS WITH IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD
THE FRONT...SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A WASH-OUT. SREF PLUMES RANGE FROM 1 TO
AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF QPF DURING THIS 48-HR PERIOD...WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AROUND 2.5 INCHES. THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA IS LIKELY
TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CATEGORICAL POP WILL BE
INTRODUCED EVERYWHERE...DRYING OUT ONLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT HAS BEEN A
WET FEW WEEKS LOCALLY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS
ACROSS THE AREA...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
DURING THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE WITH SOME ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE HWO.
CLOUDS...RAIN...AND A WEAK WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO
NORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER...TO LOW 80S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE JUST AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
HOWEVER...AS MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGES OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL
PLAGUE THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...BUT A RETURN
TO DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRY THE
REGION OUT FROM A VERY WET MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A RETURN OF SW COLUMN FLOW
WILL INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN. TUE/WED WILL NOT BE AS
UNSETTLED OR WET AS EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION
WITH ABOVE-CLIMO POP ANTICIPATED TUESDAY...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...PUSHED QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY THE 500MB VORTEX
CENTER MOVING NE INTO CANADA. THIS LEAVES MORE DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS AS THE TROUGH RECEDES BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ZONALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO VALUES FOR
HIGHS...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST...AND THE ONE MOST LIKELY
TO FEATURE WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR HIGHS. MINS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CLIMO EARLY IN THE PERIOD THANKS TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER...BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AS OF 18Z...SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR TO MOVE FROM
KFLO/KLBT TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. A BRIEF LULL IN
HEAVY PRECIPITATION/TS WILL DEVELOP FROM NW-SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE
WEAK FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD END W-E AROUND DAYBREAK.
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR FORECAST
REASONING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS NEEDED
TODAY BUT SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE A BUMPY 3-4 FEET AS E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL AND INCREASE A BIT INTO TONIGHT. COMPLICATING MARINE WX IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON THE WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER
KEEP ALERT TO RADAR TRENDS TODAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD REDUCE VSBYS ION HEAVY
RAIN TO BELOW 1NM AT TIMES. THE SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURES A MIX
OF SE WAVES 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND E-ESE WAVES OF 2-3
FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A MEANDERING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THIS PERIOD...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF COMPASS DIRECTIONS. SE WINDS
INITIALLY AROUND 10 KTS WILL BACK TO THE S/SW AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN TURN WINDS TO THE W/NW AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SE GROUND
SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE CREATING THE WAVE SPECTRUM. NEAR SHORE
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
WAVE DIRECTION THAN WHAT WILL EXIST ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START TUESDAY
WILL LEAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK CREATING A
RETURN TO PREDOMINANT SW FLOW. SW WINDS WILL BECOME 10-15 KTS BY
TUESDAY AFTN...AND THEN SLOWLY RISE TO 15-20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE INCREASED
SW WINDS CAUSING A SHORTER AVERAGE WAVE PERIOD AND STEEPER FACES
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO
ADDRESS A STRONG ASTRONOMICAL TIDE PRESENTLY...AND NOT ONLY FOR
DOWNTOWN BUT ALSO AREA BEACHES WHERE HIGH-WATER RUN-UP IS LIKELY.
THIS ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
MORNING...BUT FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...HIGHER OF TODAYS
HIGH TIDES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM INDICATE THAT ONCE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA THAT IT MAY BE IT FOR CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MAY ALSO LOWER HIGHS A TAD ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
IT WAS A QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHWEST TN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES VERY MOIST WITH THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.14 INCHES. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALTHOUGH MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH SOME COOLING
FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THUS LESS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. HEAT INDEX READINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE MIDSOUTH. WILL STILL HAVE THE THREAT
OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY HELPING TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
LATEST MODELS ARE MOVING THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER INDICATED. TRIMMED THE POPS
BACK A LITTLE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE
TRIMMED BACK FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS.
BY WEDNESDAY IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER...SOME GORGEOUS SUMMERTIME
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PLACE THE MIDSOUTH IN DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNSEASONABLY MILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S...EVEN 50S ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES IN THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING VARYING SOLUTIONS AND PERHAPS SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
NOW KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE KTUP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON SO KEPT A VCTS OTRW THE REMAINDER OF AREA MAY REMAIN
QUIET. DECIDED TO REMOVE THE VCTS AT KMEM...KJBR AND KMKL.
LATEST MODELS GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE
MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE DELTA THIS EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAFS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING DECIDED TO PLACE SOME IFR
CONDS INTO THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY SINCE THE PATTERN
WILL BE SIMILAR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD..MAINLY OUT OF THE WSW.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will again prevail through tomorrow. More scattered
mid level clouds will be possible through early evening. A few may
produce some showers, but theses showers will be scattered and
brief, so have not mentioned in the TAFS. Winds may be
occasionally gusty this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through tonight. A few isolated showers and storms are possible,
mainly near KABI-Abilene, but given the sparse nature and the
small odds of actually passing over a site, will not mention at
this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed Friday evening and
continue into the early morning hours across portions of the Big
Country and the Concho Valley. Several outflow boundaries have
rippled to the south. These boundaries have at least provided for
slightly cooler conditions behind the boundaries, with temperatures
in the mid 70s instead of the lower 80s ahead of them.
For today, similar to our discussion from yesterday morning, latest
TTU WRF and HRRR show at least isolated convection this afternoon
across portions of the Big Country, mainly north of I-20 where the
outflow boundaries will have an effect. Have again added slight
chance pops up there for today.
Highs on Friday afternoon were 1 or 2 degrees cooler than on
Thursday, and with the models suggesting the upper level ridge will
continue to gradually weaken across the area, temperatures should
cool another degree or two. Upper 90s to around 100 expected.
LONG TERM...
Upper level ridging will continue into the later part of next
week. However, not all showers and thunderstorms will be
suppressed with the upper ridging. A thunderstorm complex in the
Panhandle Sunday may move into the Big Country late Sunday night,
A weak cold front will also move into the Big Country Monday
afternoon, and push south as far as the I-10 corridor Monday
night. This front will also provide an additional low level focus
for thunderstorm development. Kept a slight chance of
thunderstorms going Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly in the
Concho Valley and areas southward, as the front washes out.
Temperatures Sunday will be near or slightly above 100 degrees.
Highs the rest of next week should be 2 to 4 degrees less hot, with
isolated storms and increased cloud cover.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100 76 100 76 96 / 20 10 5 20 20
San Angelo 100 74 100 74 98 / 5 10 5 5 20
Junction 100 75 99 75 98 / 5 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Reimer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WAS ON SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN INTO PARTS
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY BEEN WORKING EAST
TODAY...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE
HAS KEPT THE LOW LEVELS PLENTY DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. MID
AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND CLOUD
COVER VARIED FROM MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP FROM MSP TO DODGE
CENTER...LIFTING NORTH. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN DODGE
COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PLAN ON DRY
CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL FIZZLE OUT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE 50S IN THE
COOLER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOCATIONS...TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN / NORTHEAST IA UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES...AND SENDS A PIECE OF ENERGY DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW THE
MOISTURE AXIS OF 65F DEWPOINTS TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL. MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...AND IS MOSTLY UNCAPPED. EXPECTING POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED ALONG/WEST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL
SLOWLY WORK EAST TOWARD ROCHESTER AND CHARLES CITY AREAS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AS 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ON
THE ORDER OF 10 KTS.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARRIVES MONDAY...THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK/MODERATE NOTED BY SOME 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION AND WEAK
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE ONLY REAL POSITIVE IS THAT PWATS
WILL BE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
MONDAY MORNING AND WITH CONVECTION AROUND...FORECAST HIGHS WILL
BE TRICKY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DOWN...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT BY
LOWERING HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. THE
GREATER CLOUD COVER ALSO LIMITS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AROUND...AND GIVEN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT
ALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. END RESULT WAS A
TIGHTENING OF THE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE GREATER FORCING/LIFT IS EXPECTED.
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...ENDING PRECIPITATION WEST
TO EAST. COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE FRONT HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS QUIET WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
7-10 C WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS.
09.12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKING DOWN HELPING TO
SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY LATER IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ALL OF THE MODELS...AS THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER SOLUTION. ADJUSTED MODEL CONSENSUS TO KEEP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MS RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STUCK OVER MICHIGAN AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO STILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THE FORECAST MAINTAINS MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS...THOUGH. THE FIRST IS
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS AT LSE. A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND AT THE GROUND IS FAVORABLE ALONG WITH PERHAPS JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...10 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE MODELED JUST ABOVE
THE GROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING.
THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE BCFG AND SCT LIFR DECK FOR NOW.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS LATE SUNDAY WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER OR STORM TO MOVE INTO RST FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOW
CHANCE AND THE EASTERLY DRY FLOW...HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WAS ON SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN INTO PARTS
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY BEEN WORKING EAST
TODAY...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE
HAS KEPT THE LOW LEVELS PLENTY DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. MID
AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND CLOUD
COVER VARIED FROM MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP FROM MSP TO DODGE
CENTER...LIFTING NORTH. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN DODGE
COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PLAN ON DRY
CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL FIZZLE OUT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE 50S IN THE
COOLER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOCATIONS...TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN / NORTHEAST IA UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES...AND SENDS A PIECE OF ENERGY DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW THE
MOISTURE AXIS OF 65F DEWPOINTS TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL. MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...AND IS MOSTLY UNCAPPED. EXPECTING POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED ALONG/WEST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL
SLOWLY WORK EAST TOWARD ROCHESTER AND CHARLES CITY AREAS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AS 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ON
THE ORDER OF 10 KTS.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARRIVES MONDAY...THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK/MODERATE NOTED BY SOME 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION AND WEAK
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE ONLY REAL POSITIVE IS THAT PWATS
WILL BE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
MONDAY MORNING AND WITH CONVECTION AROUND...FORECAST HIGHS WILL
BE TRICKY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DOWN...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT BY
LOWERING HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. THE
GREATER CLOUD COVER ALSO LIMITS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AROUND...AND GIVEN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT
ALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. END RESULT WAS A
TIGHTENING OF THE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE GREATER FORCING/LIFT IS EXPECTED.
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...ENDING PRECIPITATION WEST
TO EAST. COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
THE FRONT HALF OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS QUIET WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
7-10 C WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS.
09.12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKING DOWN HELPING TO
SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY LATER IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ALL OF THE MODELS...AS THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER SOLUTION. ADJUSTED MODEL CONSENSUS TO KEEP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MS RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
SIMILAR CONCERNS TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SD AND TOWARD MN BUT HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF
REX BLOCK OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AGAIN EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DEALING PRIMARILY WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUD SPREADING EAST WHILE BEING ERODED BY DRY EASTERLY
FLOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH. WITH WEAK FLOW COULD STILL SEE
PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG. AGAIN...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...AND WE DID NOT SEE A GREAT DEAL LAST NIGHT. BUT DO
THINK IT IS POSSIBLE...SO DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION THAT WAS ADDED
DURING THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU POPPED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING CIRRUS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS SPINNING OVER THE DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION FROM
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER IOWA AND
MINNESOTA SINCE EAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DRY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY SO THINKING WE SHOULD JUST SEE AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE. BUT THIS WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO THINKING LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER. LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
SUNDAY...A LITTLE DEEPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT BACKING
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A CLOUDIER AND MORE HUMID
DAY THAN TODAY. BUT THE CLOUDS WILL OFFSET WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IN CONCERT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS JET ENERGY EVENTUALLY
CARVES OUT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK...LEAVING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MOST LIKELY AFTER 09Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z AND THEN EASTERN SECTION AFTER 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AS LFQ OF
UPPER JET HELPS TO ORGANIZE AND FOCUS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHERE OVER INDIANA OR LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIFT NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON AREA BY 18Z TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMIMG AND LOCATION OF THIS
EVOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF
DEPICTION OF THIS EVOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z MONDAY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TUESDAY TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAIN. AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND PERHAPS SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...CAA AND PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER. WOULD THINK TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL GENERATE MUCH
IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...THUS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS
BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING GROUND FOG OVER N-C
WISCONSIN...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL HAVE MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
400 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
STORMS ARE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA WITH THE SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA. AS A RESULT...SFC WINDS ARE NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA WITH A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. BEST SHOT AT STRONGER
STORMS THRU THE AFTN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE VALLEY
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
DRIER (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S)...LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-50F RANGE. THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES OF 1250-1500 OVER DAWES AND SIOUX
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT
WILL BE THE LACK OF SHEAR (BULK SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25 KTS). KEPT
SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST THROUGH THE AFTN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STRONGER
STORMS OVER THIS AREA. STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF THEREAFTER.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SFC PRESSURES RISING OVER THE CWA. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY BY
SUN AFTN WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE. THE MAIN MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST DAY IS TO SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY AND QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
AFTN. APPEARS MORE AND MORE THAT NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SEE MUCH OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY...SO LOWERED POPS IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY MON WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF WY. WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO GET MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST WY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...AND EASTERN GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A UPPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY WEEK/S END. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A
POSITIVE OPEN TROUGH WITH ITS MERIDIONAL AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TUESDAY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND EASTERN CO. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT
MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WY/CO
WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
THURSDAY AS FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AND SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NOT AS PREVALENT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT
THE CWA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. SATURDAY WILL TREND DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISLD TO SCT TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z
WILL PRODUCE OCNL MVFR VSBYS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES THIS AFTN...OCNLY VARIABLE/GUSTY INVOF TSTORM ACTIVITY.
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AFTER CONVECTION DISSIPATES LATER THIS
EVE. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 10Z FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NE PNHDL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH