Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL CA. AREA
SFC TEMPS ACROSS SE AZ CLIMBING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS LATER ON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME
POPCORN CU OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND A FEW TALLER
BUILDUPS OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MTNS IN ERN COCHISE CNTY WITH A FEW
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE BUILDUPS.
SFC DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN WRN LOCALES TODAY...INCLUDING +6
DEGS F AT KTUS AND +7 DEGS F AT KOLS AS OPPOSED TO 24 HRS AGO. 12Z
KTWC RAOB THIS MORNING INDICATED TOTAL PRECIP WATER WAS LESS THAN 1
INCH WHICH IS HELPING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND TWO LOCAL WRF MODELS LIMITING
ANY SHWR ACTIVITY TO AREAS OF AZ ADJACENT TO THE NM AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
ANY SHWRS/STMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMTS
AND ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVE. THAT SAID...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING NUMEROUS BUILDUPS NEAR THE SONORA/
CHIHUAHUA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE US BORDER. IF OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS DO ADVANCE NWD
INTO SE AZ TONIGHT...EXTREME SERN PORTIONS MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM THE TX PANDHANDLE SWWD THRU BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH THE GREAT
BASIN TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. FOR A SHORT
TIME...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
LATE IN THE WKEND ANOTHER TROF WILL DROP SWD ALONG THE PAC COASTLINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ.
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN EACH OF THE MODELS ON THE DAY THAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. WITHOUT
GOING INTO ALL THAT DETAIL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A
GRADUAL DAILY INCREASE IN SHWRS/TSTMS FRI-SUN. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
SAT...THOUGH ALMOST CERTAINLY BY SUN. DEEPER SELY FLOW WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO YIELD THE DAILY CYCLE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS.
A VERY GRADUAL AND WEAK DAILY COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THUR-SAT
FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SUN-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/23Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS NE OF KDUG THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFT 07/21Z. CLOUDS THRU 07/06Z AND AFT 07/19Z...
SKC-FEW CLOUDS AT 10-13K FT AGL WEST OF KTUS...WITH KTUS VICINITY
EWD FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL...AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL MAINLY SE OF KTUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 07/06Z AND 07/19Z. SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXPECT FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRENCH
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A VERY
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S F. THESE TEMPS
FROM KTUS WWD WERE ABOUT 5 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
WERE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F LOWER ACROSS ERN SECTIONS VERSUS THIS TIME
TUE. 06/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER WAS 0.94 INCH...OR JUST
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF PRECIP WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE 24 HR TEMP CHANGE PLOT YIELDED MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE
SURFACE-500 MB LAYER...BUT EXHIBITED WARMING OF ABOUT 2-5 DEGS C IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER. 06/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA EWD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND
A WEAK TROUGH WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LIGHT
GENERALLY SWLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.
06/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND 06/14Z RUC HRRR WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING A PRECIP ECHOES TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z-19Z TODAY. PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN PROGGED TO
REMAIN MAINLY NEAR THE SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW ECHOES WERE ALSO PROGGED TO BE AS FAR WEST
AS THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS SW OF SIERRA VISTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
06/12Z NAM CONTINUED TO DEPICT PRECIP ECHOES MOSTLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY SIMILAR TO THE INHERITED OFFICIAL
FORECAST FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT.
WILL AWAIT RECEIPT OF THE 06/12Z GFS/ECMWF PRIOR TO MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THUR AS THE
WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ASSUMING NO
OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER SONORA TONIGHT...THEN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THUR REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED THAT POPS FOR THUR AND THUR NIGHT MAY BE UNDERDONE IF
OUTFLOWS ADVANCE NWD INTO SE AZ TONIGHT. AT ANY RATE...EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SE OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-SAFFORD-SIERRA
VISTA LINE THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING FRI AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE VARIOUS NWP MODELS REGARDING
WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS. IN ESSENCE...THE 06/12Z NAM FAVORED FRI AS A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MEANWHILE...THE
06/00Z ECMWF FAVORED SAT FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND
THE 06/00Z GFS DELAYED THE ONSET OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY UNTIL SUN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A GRADUAL DAILY INCREASE IN SHOWERS/
TSTMS FRI-SUN. THUS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS SAT...THOUGH ALMOST CERTAINLY BY SUN. A
FAIRLY DEEP GENERALLY SELY FLOW REGIME IS THEN PROGGED TO OCCUR
MON-TUE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NRN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO YIELD THE DAILY CYCLE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS TO EXIST TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS MON-TUE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED TUE
AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL DAILY COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
THUR-SAT FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 7/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS NE OF KDUG THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST OF KTUS
THRU THURSDAY MORNING. KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL HAVE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
MAINLY SE OF KTUS AT OTHER TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1000 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO CLEAR POPS OUT OF MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST INTO KANSAS. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST INTO
KANSAS. WEAKER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL IMPACTING
PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE
NIGHT. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EXPIRED THE WATCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AT 7 PM. EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 8
PM. A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLOODING. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AREAS ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY INTO BACA COUNTIES...ARE
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS OVER
BACA COUNTY HAVE SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR...AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING...FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PUEBLO AREA. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONTINUED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
AFFECTING TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH 01Z WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO IMPACT THE PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
TOMORROW...MORE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
814 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST INTO
KANSAS. WEAKER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL IMPACTING
PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE
NIGHT. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EXPIRED THE WATCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AT 7 PM. EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 8
PM. A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLOODING. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AREAS ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY INTO BACA COUNTIES...ARE
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS OVER
BACA COUNTY HAVE SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR...AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING...FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PUEBLO AREA. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONTINUED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
AFFECTING TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH 01Z WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO IMPACT THE PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
TOMORROW...MORE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
655 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EXPIRED THE WATCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AT 7 PM. EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 8
PM. A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLOODING. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AREAS ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY INTO BACA COUNTIES...ARE
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS OVER
BACA COUNTY HAVE SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR...AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING...FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PUEBLO AREA. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONTINUED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
AFFECTING TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH 01Z WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO IMPACT THE PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
TOMORROW...MORE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
558 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AREAS ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY INTO BACA COUNTIES...ARE
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS OVER
BACA COUNTY HAVE SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR...AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING...FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PUEBLO AREA. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONTINUED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
AFFECTING TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH 01Z WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO IMPACT THE PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
TOMORROW...MORE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CURRENTLY...
WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS INITIATING SOME CONVECTION OVER KIOWA COUNTY AT 2 PM.
GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50 WINDS WERE FROM A WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT
WHILE WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTH OF 50.
OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR MTNS...IT HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A
BIT WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DRIER ALOFT AS CLOUDS ARE NOTICEABLY MUCH LESS
ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF US-50.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WALDO BURN
SCAR. HRRR SHOWING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
C MTNS...GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS THIS AREA IN EARLIER UPDATES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING
NOT LIKELY OVER BURN SCARS...ONE HEAVY SHOWER IN THE WRONG PLACE CAN
EASILY CAUSE PROBLEMS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AS 60 DWPTS CURRENTLY IN
SW NEB ARE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THE GREATER KIOWA COUNTY REGION. NAM GUIDANCE HAS SOME PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT THIS REGION BUT IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE.
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE MTNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD AND HIGH
VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND HAVE POPS DRAWN UP
EVERYWHERE OVER THE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND AREA WILL LIKELY BE FEELING THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OVER E UTAH. CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIATE AROUND ITS NORMAL TIME OVER THE MTNS (NOONISH) AND THEN
INCREASE AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
OVER C MTNS...PIKES PEAK AREA AND FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FLOODING THREAT ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY. STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED TOMORROW DUE TO A BIT
BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES. AN ISOLD SVR STORM CANT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF THE MCS WHICH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OUTFLOW. OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO MOST MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MOVES TO THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA...BUT THERE IS THREAT FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. POPS GRIDS KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THESE
REGIONS FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. CANNOT
GET VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
OUTFLOW FROM MCS...BUT HUNCH IS OUTFLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN MOST
MODELS SUGGEST. IF THIS IS THE CASE...LOW LEVELS COULD BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW LEVELS
ARE TOO CLOUDY OR COOL...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE STABLE ON THE PLAINS.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCATTERED POPS MAINLY ALONG PALMER DIVIDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. NAM12 HAS A POTENT AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY...AND CAPES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ARE OVER 2000 J/KG. THINK
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...MONSOON PLUME IS MOSTLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST
WITH THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER COLORADO. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START BRINGING MORE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. POPS INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD CONTINUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF A
PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING
AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MORE SUBTLE
FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE A DECREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MID WEEK FOR A DECREASED
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE. LIKELY STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...BUT
PATTERN CHANGES SUGGESTS LOWER COVERAGE WITH LESS INTENSITY.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER KCOS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.
FOR KPUB AND KALS...VFR NEXT 24. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA OVER THESE TWO SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. TWO SHORTWAVES...PRESENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL KS...WILL HELP
PROVIDE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN. LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND POINT INTO IA...PROVIDING AMPLE
MOISTURE. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE 2.0 IN RANGE...WHICH
AGAIN WILL BE AROUND +2 SD VS CLIMO. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL APPROACH
THE 12 KFT RANGE. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS DO TEND TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...MORE SO THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND RESULTING
RAINFALL. THE NAM IS THE WETTEST AND BRINGS A RIBBON OF FORCING
ALONG WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT AS INTENSE THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE
TENDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TONIGHT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF IA HWY 92.
WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IA COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF 92...GIVEN LAST NIGHT/S
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
THERE...CONFIDENCE IS AROUND THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD WHICH
WOULD BE THE LOW-END FLASH FLOOD WATCH CRITERIA.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL BUT
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
THIS AFTN IN SW IA...WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MINIMAL HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SHORTER TERM WITH
EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY SFC SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MO AND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THETAE AXIS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO
FEED THIS AREA WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING. MODELS HAVENT
QUITE REACHED A CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHEAST US.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH THE H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE EURO/GFS/NAM HIT THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FOCUSED BETWEEN 12-18Z USING A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH TRACK OF THE H850 LOW. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH MESO HRRR AND NMM MODELS. CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING FAIRLY WELL WITH ALL MODELS BUT WITH EXPECTED
MESO CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MO THIS EVENING...TRACK
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
AND CLOSER TO THE HRRR/NMM. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THAT SOLUTION
...IN LINE WITH WPC AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH DURING THE
EVENING SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS FARTHER NORTH. ANY
DEVIATION NORTH WOULD RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BEING HIGHER IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHEARED OUT
AND WEAKENS...AND HANGS ON INTO FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTH. ALREADY INTO THE WEEKEND NOW SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GREAT LAKES HIGH NOW BEING MODELED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND IS NOW TRENDING TO KEEP AREA DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE REDUCED POP CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS...
BUT HAVE NOT CUT OUT YET DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND CONSENSUS
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT THIS POINT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
TONIGHTS MODEL PACKAGES...THEN FURTHER REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY SOME MODERATION IS
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
RISK FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK....LESSENING CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. SOME HINT AT RETURN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INVOF SRN IA/NRN MO DURING THE
FCST PD BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. WITHIN SHRA/TSRA FLIGHT RULES
WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER...WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03/06Z. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA WILL PULL OUT
OF THE REGION ON THU MORNING BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR CONDS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THURSDAY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE STATE.
URBAN AREAS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING
ISSUES AS MOST RURAL LOCATIONS HAVE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
MINIMAL RISES ARE ANTICIPATED ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ADAIR-CLARKE-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-RINGGOLD-UNION-
WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
923 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A TROUGH IS MOVING ON SHORE TODAY ON THE WESTERN COAST WITH MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
COMPLEX OF STORMS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) CURRENTLY OVER NW KS
CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KS.
THIS COMPLEX AND A VERY POTENT MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS HAS LED TO
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS. BIG QUESTION IS
HOW FAR EAST THE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI.
STEERING VECTORS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE SRN END OF THE NW KS COMPLEX...WITH PROPAGATION SE TOWARDS
KDDC. BUT THE MAIN MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS TAKE THE WHOLE MCS
STRAIGHT EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE MCS
OVER CENTRAL KS AND FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. SO THINK THE
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...REACHING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL SEE SOME OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM
THE MONSOONAL FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 06-10Z. SO
WILL BEEF UP POPS SOME IN CENTRAL KS...AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MAIN SYSTEMS BOTH THE CURRENT HIGH AND PROGRESSING TROUGH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SITUATED AND EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THESE RIPPLES ARE OFFSET
AND ALMOST DOING THEIR OWN THING. A MESSY PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES GIVEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REACHING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CHANCES MAINLY REACHING
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WIDER AREA OF EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR GIVEN ITS DECENT FORECAST SUCCESS WITH THE
ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT...WAS UTILIZED FOR ASSISTANCE IN
ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL STUFF WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LESS SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY THAN LAST NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE SHEAR AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS WERE ALTERED AND WILL VERY WELL BE TWEAKED
WITH EACH FORECAST GIVEN THE ATTEMPTS OF THE MODELS TO GET A
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JUANITA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A RIDGE IS SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
RESPECTIVE FEATURES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING AN IMPACT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL AND RESPECTIVE RUN THAT ONE WOULD LIKE TO CONSIDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.
JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 8-10 HOURS. THEN FOCUS
INITIALLY SHIFTS TO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
NEAR KGLD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THIS LINE TO
EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KDDC...BUT THE
OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WILL BE DUE
EAST. NOT TOO SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST WANES. BUT THINK THE ERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO KRSL AND POSSIBLY
KHUT. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS A PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
KRSL BY AROUND 05-06Z AND KHUT BY AROUND 08Z. SO WILL GO WITH A
VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KHUT FOR THIS CHANCE. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN INTACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST FOR FRI
MORNING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KSLN.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SOME MORNING MVFR VSBY CHANCES FOR SRN KS NEAR
KICT/KCNU...WITH 3-5SM BR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-14Z/FRI. COULD ALSO
SEE AN IFR CLOUD DECK MOVE INTO KCNU FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING
AS WELL. THINK SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KSLN/KRSL BUT WILL NOT GO WITH AN IFR CEILING JUST YET.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 89 69 92 / 30 20 40 20
HUTCHINSON 69 87 68 91 / 40 30 40 20
NEWTON 68 87 68 90 / 30 30 40 20
ELDORADO 69 88 68 90 / 30 30 40 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 91 70 92 / 20 20 40 30
RUSSELL 68 85 67 89 / 60 30 50 20
GREAT BEND 68 86 67 89 / 60 30 50 20
SALINA 68 87 67 91 / 40 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 68 86 67 90 / 30 30 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 90 70 91 / 20 20 30 30
CHANUTE 69 87 68 90 / 20 30 30 30
IOLA 67 86 68 89 / 20 30 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 69 91 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A TROUGH IS MOVING ON SHORE TODAY ON THE WESTERN COAST WITH MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MAIN SYSTEMS BOTH THE CURRENT HIGH AND PROGRESSING TROUGH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SITUATED AND EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THESE RIPPLES ARE OFFSET
AND ALMOST DOING THEIR OWN THING. A MESSY PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES GIVEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REACHING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CHANCES MAINLY REACHING
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WIDER AREA OF EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR GIVEN ITS DECENT FORECAST SUCCESS WITH THE
ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT...WAS UTILIZED FOR ASSISTANCE IN
ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL STUFF WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LESS SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY THAN LAST NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE SHEAR AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS WERE ALTERED AND WILL VERY WELL BE TWEAKED
WITH EACH FORECAST GIVEN THE ATTEMPTS OF THE MODELS TO GET A
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JUANITA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A RIDGE IS SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
RESPECTIVE FEATURES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING AN IMPACT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL AND RESPECTIVE RUN THAT ONE WOULD LIKE TO CONSIDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.
JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 8-10 HOURS. THEN FOCUS
INITIALLY SHIFTS TO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
NEAR KGLD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THIS LINE TO
EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KDDC...BUT THE
OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WILL BE DUE
EAST. NOT TOO SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST WANES. BUT THINK THE ERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO KRSL AND POSSIBLY
KHUT. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS A PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
KRSL BY AROUND 05-06Z AND KHUT BY AROUND 08Z. SO WILL GO WITH A
VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KHUT FOR THIS CHANCE. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN INTACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST FOR FRI
MORNING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KSLN.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SOME MORNING MVFR VSBY CHANCES FOR SRN KS NEAR
KICT/KCNU...WITH 3-5SM BR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-14Z/FRI. COULD ALSO
SEE AN IFR CLOUD DECK MOVE INTO KCNU FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING
AS WELL. THINK SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KSLN/KRSL BUT WILL NOT GO WITH AN IFR CEILING JUST YET.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 89 69 92 / 30 20 40 20
HUTCHINSON 69 87 68 91 / 30 30 40 20
NEWTON 68 87 68 90 / 30 30 40 20
ELDORADO 69 88 68 90 / 30 30 40 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 91 70 92 / 20 20 40 30
RUSSELL 68 85 67 89 / 50 30 50 20
GREAT BEND 68 86 67 89 / 50 30 50 20
SALINA 68 87 67 91 / 30 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 68 86 67 90 / 30 30 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 90 70 91 / 20 20 30 30
CHANUTE 69 87 68 90 / 20 30 30 30
IOLA 67 86 68 89 / 20 30 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 69 91 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1237 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
The primary focus will be convection this evening and how expansive
it will be this evening across western Kansas. Water vapor loop
early this afternoon showed a substantial mid level dry intrusion
into the southwestern CONUS which was pushing northeastward through
Colorado. RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed middle
troposphere from the primary vorticity anomaly across
central/northern California...eastward through Utah and into
Colorado. A 250mb jet streak continued to nose northeastward into
southern California through southern Utah. A lee trough convergence
axis was found across far southeastern Colorado into far
northwestern Kansas. This was on the western periphery of deep mid
level moisture plume. All the short-term high resolution models
suggest convection continuing to develop along the lee trough
convergence axis and also over terrain-favored regions of Colorado.
There is the suggestion that the most organized of lee trough
convection will stay just north of the DDC forecast area from far
west-central KS into northwestern KS. Both the 12Z WRF ARW and NMMB
show a cluster of pseudo-organized convection rolling east-southeast
reaching roughly a Leoti to Gove line by around 06Z. The best of the
lee trough convergence will be farther north, so it would make sense
that the high resolution models are keeping the most sustained
convection across northwestern Kansas. Other less organized
convection farther south may last through sunset, but not much after
that. We will keep Chance POPs confined to far west-central KS
(Kearny to Scott County). South winds tonight averaging 12 to 15
knots will keep the boundary layer mixed enough through the night
that temperatures will likely plateau during the 06-12Z time frame
in the lower 70s along/east of Highway 283. The trough axis will
shift east Wednesday with lighter winds much of the day across much
of southwest Kansas. Weak convergence along the trough may yield
late afternoon convection, but only loosely organized convection at
best can be expected with the deep frontogenetic forcing still north
of the southwest Kansas region through late afternoon Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
No significant changes were made to the extended period of the
forecast. Wednesday night, and through the overnight into Thursday
morning will present chances for convection along a weak boundary
and area of surface low pressure over western Kansas. The model
signals for this suggest the best chances for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be across central Kansas where instability and
CAPE will be greater. Any storms along this convergence zone should
end by Thursday morning across the south central Kansas counties
rendering Thursday dry for most of the day. Convection will again be
possible in the far west on Thursday evening and through the night
as it forms diurnally along the high terrain of eastern Colorado
with the aid of upslope surface flow and higher dew points around
60 degrees or more.
Beyond Friday, the region will remain in a fairly westerly zonal
pattern but also not a particularly strong surface gradient, leading
to relatively light winds. As the region will remain fairly rich
ion surface moisture and warm, any local areas of uncapped
convergence could set off afternoon convection lasting into the very
early evening through about Tuesday. However chances as far as areal
coverage are concerned should be fairly minimal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue to propagate east across
western into central Kansas through sunrise. The main area of storms
over far west central Kansas has been showing a decreasing trend and
should continue to do so but some mid level forcing should keep at
least some storm redevelopment through sunrise. Will carry VCTS at
the Garden City, Dodge City and Hays through the late night hours.
Southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will diminish and become southwest
to northwest during the day as a surface low pressure trough moves
east through the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 92 68 91 / 20 10 20 30
GCK 66 92 67 89 / 20 10 30 30
EHA 66 95 67 92 / 10 20 20 30
LBL 68 97 69 95 / 20 10 20 30
HYS 67 93 65 88 / 30 10 40 30
P28 70 95 71 94 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1115 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE POPS DOWN TO 15 PERCENT.
ALSO NUDGED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF
ZONES FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THE RETREAT FROM
KENTUCKY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND ITS WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...SOME CLEAR PATCHES
THROUGH MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL SHORTLY BE FILLED IN BY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. ON RADAR...THE
NEAREST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A STEADY APPROACH TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE CWA DRY
THROUGH 06Z...BUT THEN BRINGS CONVECTION INTO OUR DOMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE PRESERVED THE HIGHER POPS
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHILE TAPERING THEM BACK THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE BACKING OFF THEIR EARLIER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...FALLING A FEW DEGREES WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS READINGS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION. ASIDE FROM THE POP AND WX
ADJUSTMENTS...ADDED A BIT MORE FOG LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZONE ISSUANCE TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THERE IS A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. AS THIS LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST...IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START MOVING INTO WAYNE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST ENGULFING ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL WINDOW ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET STRONG...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM WHERE THE FRONT
BECOMES STALLED OVER THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HYDROLOGICAL WITH 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...HAVE HELD OFF PUTTING
OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE THE RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36
HOUR PERIOD AND IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE. THERE WILL LIKELY TO SOME
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER IN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WITH DITCHES...STREAMS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO LAY DOWN
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AS A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A
DISTURBANCE IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE AMPLIFIED APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING OVER AND THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS KEEPS A PERMANENT BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY..ESSENTIALLY
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
ESPECIALLY CONCERNING...IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THEN EXTENDED WHERE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PWATS IN THE 1.70
TO 1.90 RANGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE
MAY BE SOME CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ALL BLEND
MODEL DOES AGREE WITH THIS SITUATION AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS
GIVEN FOR THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK...BESIDES A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND EURO LIE WITH THE GFS BEING TOO STRONG
WITH THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK WITH THE EURO
MAINTAINING THE SUMMER LIKE WEAK FLOW A BIT LONGER. THOUGH
DIFFERENCES SEEM MINOR...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIE WITH THE WEEKEND
AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
$$
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
INITIALLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...GENERALLY LOWERING WITH TIME. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
CAN THICKEN UP EXPECT MVFR FOG TO BE FOUND IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...
SETTING IN BETWEEN 6-8Z WITH PATCHY AMOUNTS AROUND THROUGH DAWN
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE REPRESENTED
IN THE TAFS VIA A LOWERING CIG AND PERIODS OF LOWER...MVFR...VIS
ALONG WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF VCTS AND TS BY MIDDAY FOR MOST SITES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THE RETREAT FROM
KENTUCKY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND ITS WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...SOME CLEAR PATCHES
THROUGH MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL SHORTLY BE FILLED IN BY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. ON RADAR...THE
NEAREST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A STEADY APPROACH TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE CWA DRY
THROUGH 06Z...BUT THEN BRINGS CONVECTION INTO OUR DOMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE PRESERVED THE HIGHER POPS
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHILE TAPERING THEM BACK THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE BACKING OFF THEIR EARLIER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...FALLING A FEW DEGREES WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS READINGS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION. ASIDE FROM THE POP AND WX
ADJUSTMENTS...ADDED A BIT MORE FOG LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZONE ISSUANCE TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THERE IS A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. AS THIS LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST...IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START MOVING INTO WAYNE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST ENGULFING ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL WINDOW ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET STRONG...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM WHERE THE FRONT
BECOMES STALLED OVER THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HYDROLOGICAL WITH 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...HAVE HELD OFF PUTTING
OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE THE RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36
HOUR PERIOD AND IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE. THERE WILL LIKELY TO SOME
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER IN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WITH DITCHES...STREAMS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO LAY DOWN
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AS A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A
DISTURBANCE IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE AMPLIFIED APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING OVER AND THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS KEEPS A PERMANENT BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY..ESSENTIALLY
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
ESPECIALLY CONCERNING...IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THEN EXTENDED WHERE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PWATS IN THE 1.70
TO 1.90 RANGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE
MAY BE SOME CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ALL BLEND
MODEL DOES AGREE WITH THIS SITUATION AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS
GIVEN FOR THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK...BESIDES A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND EURO LIE WITH THE GFS BEING TOO STRONG
WITH THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK WITH THE EURO
MAINTAINING THE SUMMER LIKE WEAK FLOW A BIT LONGER. THOUGH
DIFFERENCES SEEM MINOR...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIE WITH THE WEEKEND
AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
$$
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
INITIALLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...GENERALLY LOWERING WITH TIME. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
CAN THICKEN UP EXPECT MVFR FOG TO BE FOUND IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...
SETTING IN BETWEEN 6-8Z WITH PATCHY AMOUNTS AROUND THROUGH DAWN
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE REPRESENTED
IN THE TAFS VIA A LOWERING CIG AND PERIODS OF LOWER...MVFR...VIS
ALONG WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF VCTS AND TS BY MIDDAY FOR MOST SITES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY NDFD FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED HOWEVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK...BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY
JUST SPRINKLES ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 1350Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL WV. BASED ON 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL DROP ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...AND
REMOVE ALL THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE SAME
RAIN PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO
MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT...NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID
LEVEL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A PEEK AT MOS GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INCREASE ENTHUSIASM FOR RAIN EITHER. I WOULD BE INCLINED TO
REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY WERE IT NOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT.
SO...INSTEAD WILL HOLD WITH 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND TAPER
THESE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOR A
DRY PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT WAFFLES BACK NORTH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH HIGHS ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
FINALLY...MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION DURING THE
MID TERM AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...A
SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF KY...AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE KY WILL
FIND ITSELF ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WE WILL NOT BE IMMUNE TO PRECIP CHANCES.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL LOCATION TO OSCILLATE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EASTERN KY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPAND THE
RANGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE. AND WITH HIGH 6 HOUR PWAT VALUES /LATEST
NAM AND GFS ARE POINTING AT OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/...AS
WELL AS GENERALLY WEAK STORM MOTION /LESS THAN 10 KNOTS/...STILL
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ADDED MODERATE RAINFALL WORDING BACK INTO WEATHER GRIDS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE POINTING AT THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING
MORE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL INTRODUCE MORE
SHORTWAVES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIANCE
THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND FOR
POPS. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK EASTWARD...IT
SHOULD PULL THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH IT AS WELL. THIS
WILL BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IS VERY
LOW GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL VARIABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW PACKAGE
UPDATES. THE RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW WILL WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATION.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EACH DAY WILL HINDER
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL ALSO PREVENT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID
80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME FOG IS
FORECAST TO FORM LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY RESULTING IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES. ONCE ANY FOG LIFTS THURSDAY MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1232 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY NDFD FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED HOWEVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK...BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY
JUST SPRINKLES ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 1350Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL WV. BASED ON 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL DROP ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...AND
REMOVE ALL THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE SAME
RAIN PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO
MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT...NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID
LEVEL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A PEEK AT MOS GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INCREASE ENTHUSIASM FOR RAIN EITHER. I WOULD BE INCLINED TO
REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY WERE IT NOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT.
SO...INSTEAD WILL HOLD WITH 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND TAPER
THESE OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOR A
DRY PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT WAFFLES BACK NORTH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH HIGHS ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
FINALLY...MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION DURING THE
MID TERM AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...A
SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF KY...AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE KY WILL
FIND ITSELF ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WE WILL NOT BE IMMUNE TO PRECIP CHANCES.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL LOCATION TO OSCILLATE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EASTERN KY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPAND THE
RANGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE. AND WITH HIGH 6 HOUR PWAT VALUES /LATEST
NAM AND GFS ARE POINTING AT OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/...AS
WELL AS GENERALLY WEAK STORM MOTION /LESS THAN 10 KNOTS/...STILL
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ADDED MODERATE RAINFALL WORDING BACK INTO WEATHER GRIDS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE POINTING AT THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING
MORE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL INTRODUCE MORE
SHORTWAVES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIANCE
THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND FOR
POPS. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK EASTWARD...IT
SHOULD PULL THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH IT AS WELL. THIS
WILL BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IS VERY
LOW GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL VARIABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW PACKAGE
UPDATES. THE RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW WILL WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATION.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EACH DAY WILL HINDER
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL ALSO PREVENT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID
80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS IT DOES
SO. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 23Z BEFORE
THE FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REASSESS THAT POTENTIAL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON POP/WX FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CU FIELD IS BLOOMING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
HOURLY READINGS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY MUCH RIGHT AT PERSISTENCE AGAIN TODAY WITH 00Z NAM A TAD
WARMER...BUT 12Z NUMBERS CLOSER TO FORECAST VALUES. SO NO CHANGES
THERE...BUT WE HAVE BEEFED UP THE CLOUDS A BIT WITH MANY SITES
MORE THAN EVEN SCATTERED AND PUSHING BROKEN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. OF
COURSE AS TOWERS GO UP...AIR SINKS ALL AROUND AND PARTLY CLOUDY
WILL REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR WORDING. NEW HRRR MODEL INDICATES
SOME QPF IN THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND IN FACT THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
BIT A OF PUSH ACROSS OK RIGHT NOW. SO WE HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEW PRODUCTS ARE
ON THE WAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD FOR GENERALLY ALL TERMINALS IN THE ARKLATEX. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD PROVIDE TEMPO INTERRUPTIONS...BUT CHANCES OF
TSRA ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW. MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT VARIOUS SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SW...AND A RESIDUAL UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST PD...
BRINGING OUR FIRST PROLONGED DOSE OF SUMMER WEATHER OF THE SEASON.
THE UPSIDE TO THIS IS THAT THE ARKLATEX IS UNDER WEAK NW FLOW
ALOFT...JUST CLOSE ENOUGH THAT DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE NERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CAN ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. WE WILL SEE
A FEW OF THESE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVHD MOVING INTO THE NEW
WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT BACK TO THE W BY MIDWEEK AS THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
FCST TO CREEP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE
RIDGE REINFORCES ITSELF OVHD. IT APPEARS THAT SUMMER IS FINALLY
HERE TO STAY. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 75 93 75 94 / 20 10 20 20 20
MLU 94 74 93 73 94 / 20 10 20 20 20
DEQ 91 71 92 71 93 / 20 10 20 20 20
TXK 92 73 94 73 94 / 20 10 20 20 20
ELD 93 72 93 72 93 / 20 10 20 20 20
TYR 93 75 92 75 93 / 20 10 20 20 20
GGG 94 75 94 74 94 / 20 10 20 20 20
LFK 95 75 95 74 95 / 30 10 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1053 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AND ANOTHER BAND N AND E OF THE MAINE DROPPING S TOWARD THE STATE
POPS WERE ADJUSTED USING THE RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL
TO INITIALIZE THINGS. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND WILL HEAD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND REDEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
BRUNSWICK AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY. SINCE THIS CUT OFF LOW IS SLOW TO
MOVE EAST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF ANY ORGANIZED SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY FROM FRI AFTN
SHOULD MOVE ESE OUT OF THE FA FRI NGT...SO POPS WILL BE HIGHEST
IN THE EVE...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN SLGT CHC MOST LCTNS
OVR THE FA BY LATE FRI NGT.
OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE REALLY SLOWED THE EAST EXIT OF THE CONSOLIDATED
UPPER LOW OVR THE MARITIMES THIS PD. THE NET RESULT...IS THAT THE
FA WILL REMAIN IN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVR CNTRL CAN...SUBJECT TO PERIODIC S/WVS ROTATING NW TO SE
OVR THE FA...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TIMED SPCLY FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTNS/EVES. SUBSEQUENTLY...SLGT CHC TO CHC SHWR/ISOLD TSTM POPS
HAD TO BE INTRODUCED FOR BOTH AFTNS/EVES...ALTHOUGH THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF SAT AND SUN WILL BE PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY DRY BY
DAYLIGHT HRS. WITH LMTD MAX SBCAPES BOTH LATE AFTNS...ONLY ISOLD
TSTMS WITH NO ENHANCED WORDING ATTM HAS BEEN ADVERTISED WITH AT
LEAST CHC SHWR POPS. OTHERWISE...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS XPCTD
OVR BOTH DAYS AS AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS INCREMENTALLY RISE EACH
AFTN. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT ON THURSDAY IF MODELS VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT POSSIBLY VERY BRIEFLY
LOWER IN MVFR IN ANY AFTN/EVE ISOLD TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR BOTH SAT
AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. BOTH WINDS
AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3
WV GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A SIG PTN OF LONG PD SWELL WITH FCST
WV HTS THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
930 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PENOBSCOT AND
KENNEBEC VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
MORE HUMID TO RETURN. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT...MAINLY FOR
POPS...INCORPORATING THE HRRR WHICH JUST STARTED COMING IN AGAIN
AFTER AN OUTAGE SINCE 16Z. UPPER LOW STILL HANGING TOUGH...AND A FEW
ON AND OFF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
725 PM...INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS HAVE SHIFTED
DIRECT 180 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE CWA AS MID-UPPR LVL LOW IS
BECOMING STACKED ALONG THE COAST OF ME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ENE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATE CONSISTS OF POPS WINDING DOWN THROUGH
02-03Z...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO....BUT THE CONVECTION
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...AS WILL THE BAND OF SOMEWHAT STEADY RAIN FROM
RANGELEY TO PENOBSCOT BAY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...AS RAIN COOLED TEMPS
ARE QUITE LOW...AND DO NOT HAVE FAR TO FALL TO APPROACH TDS.
PREVIOUSLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH AROUND 23Z.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME WILL ALLOW ANY SHRA TO DIMINISH THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND COOL TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WILL LKLY SEE SOME LIMITED
AREAS OF VLY FOG FORMING AGAIN...AS NW FLOW ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIMIT THE FOG TO THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE MARITIMES ON
FRIDAY...THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT WITH IT BUT SHOULD STILL
HAVE ENOUGH EFFECT TO CAUSE INSTABILITY IN THE MTNS AND THE ERN
ZONES...WITH CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA AGAIN. DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THAT WE
SAW TODAY...OR AS MUCH HAIL...SINCE IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL
ALOFT...BUT WILL STILL BE A THREAT DURING MAX DAY TIME HEATING. TO
THE S AND W...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RAD COOLING
AND VLY FOG FORMS WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S...AND 40S
IN THE COLDER MTN VLYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVES E ACROSS THE MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER LVL RIDGE TO APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS HIGH
PRESSURE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E AS IT BEGINS TO GET SQUEEZED OUR BY AN UPPER LVL TROF OVER
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHING IN AGAINST THE RIDGE WHILE THE CUTOFF OVER
THE MARITIMES PROVIDES A BLOCK TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LVL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT ONLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP OUR WX DRY BUT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH BRINGS IN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WHICH WILL COOL DOWN TEMPS AND
EVENTUALLY BRING IN OCEAN MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS. THE
RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF DRIVES E AND SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH BRINGING IN A THREAT OF RAIN
TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY.
USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
23-01Z...FROM W TO E...THEN VFR THRU THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB. VFR EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH VLY
FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/....HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
FAIR WX WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE LATE NGT RADIATION FOG
IN VALLEYS PRODUCING LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
QUIET WX ON THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
601 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. 21Z MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED SB CAPES
OF 1500 JOULES ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE
SETTING UP AIDING THE HEAVY ACTIVITY. RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO ONE
PER HOUR W/THE TSTMS. LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS WEAK STORM MOTION LEADING TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z AS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM RUN WHICH IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION
QUITE WELL. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN INLAND AND HAS HUNG ON OVER THE
WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS
HAVE RE-DEVELOPED MID TO LATE AFTN ACROSS DOWNEAST AND SE PTNS OF
THE FA AS PER THE HRRR REF MODEL OUTPUT. THIS SAME MODEL SHOWS
MOST AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EITHER DISSIPATING OR
MOVING E OF THE FA DURING THE EVE HRS.
OTHERWISE...DRIER LLVL AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWRD INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA OVRNGT. REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE FROM CURRENT RNFL COULD
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT...DESPITE
A LGT NNW SFC-BL GRAD FLOW. OVRNGT LOWS WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER
TNGT THAN THE LAST FEW.
THU WILL START OUT FAIR...BUT A S/WV TROF MOVG SSE OUT OF NW QB
WILL BRING A POCKET OF MID LVL COLD AIR MSLY TO WRN AND SRN PTNS
OF THE FA BY THU AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE XPCT THE BEST POTENTIAL
OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS TO THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH
LESSER POTENTIAL OVR THE N AND E. WE MENTION SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RN ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE MENTION OF TSTMS OVR OUR FAR
SWRN ZONES WITH LIKELY POPS THU AFTN. HI TEMPS THU WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TDY...SPCLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE FIRST HAVE OF THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE GFS DOES SHOW POSSIBLE DAYTIME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT TO ADD IT TO FORECAST ATTM. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
OVR DOWNEAST SITES IN PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT OR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE THU AFTN.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS DO DEVELOP...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOME SWELL FROM POST TROP STM BERTHA WILL CROSS INTO
OUR WATERS FROM THE S AND SE TNGT THRU THU...BUT FOR NOW...WE DO
NOT XPCT LONG PD SWELL NOT REACH SUSTAINED 5 FT OR MORE...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF 5 TO 6 FT SWELLS OVR THE
OUTER BUOYS. DUE TO THE LONG PD NATURE OF THE SWELL...WE KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...
WE KEEP THE MARINE FOG INTO THE OVRNGT...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING OVR
MOST OF THE WATERS BY DAYLIGHT THU.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/RB
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/RB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
258 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN STUBBORN CLOSED LO OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM SCENTRAL CANADA SWD THRU THE PLAINS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED
IN THIS NNW FLOW IS DIGGING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND SUPPORTING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN LK EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT CLD TOP
TEMPS ARE TENDING TO WARM/SHOWERS WEAKEN A BIT WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND AS THE PCPN AREA MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER UPR MI REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z GRB RAOB. BEHIND THIS CLD
CLUSTER...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER AREA OF MID LVL DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV AND SFC HI PRES. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PRESENT OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN MOVING E THRU THE MEAN UPR RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH THE
HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO FCST TO DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV THAT WL
BE CROSSING THE UPR LKS THIS MRNG.
TODAY...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER WRN UPR MI AND BAND OF CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV WL CROSS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG.
APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/RISING HGTS/DNVA/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO TURN MOSUNNY WITH ONLY SOME
DIURNAL CU AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER UPR MI. FCST H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
14C OVER WRN UPR MI WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO PEAK NEAR 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER
SYNOPTIC N H925 FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV THAT WL
ACCENTUATE THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK BREEZES OFF THE BIG LK. THE
00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL DOES GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG LK
BREEZE BNDRYS...BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/LARGER SCALE DRYING AND ABSENCE OF QPF FM OTHER GUIDANCE.
COOLING NEAR LK MI WL BE MORE LOCALIZED. MIN AFTN RH WL DROP AS LO
AS 30-35 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF
INCOMING DRIER AIR THAT WL CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL OFF INTO THE UPR
40S THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FM LK
BREEZES...ALLEVIATING FIRE WX CONCERNS. THERE COULD BE GUSTIER WINDS
BEHIND THE LK BREEZE BNDRYS OFF LK SUP...BUT THE AIR WL BE MOISTER
THERE.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE OVHD UNDER BLDG UPR RDG. IN THE
PRESENCE OF PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.5 INCH /40-50 PCT OF NORMAL/...
MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP DROP INTO
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR. WL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE OVERNGT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z
FRI WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SAT...SO QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENCE WILL ALSO BE THE WAY TO GO WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TAKING PLACE AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN.
THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA
12Z TUE AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z WED. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST LOOKS
GOOD...AND THEN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MON THROUGH TUE
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LOOKS GOOD. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE REAL
GREAT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND SAW...GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
KEEP 3-5MI VIS AT A MINIMUM 08-12Z THURSDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS THRU SAT AND NEAR CALM
WAVES. S WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
213 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN STUBBORN CLOSED LO OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM SCENTRAL CANADA SWD THRU THE PLAINS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED
IN THIS NNW FLOW IS DIGGING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND SUPPORTING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN LK EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT CLD TOP
TEMPS ARE TENDING TO WARM/SHOWERS WEAKEN A BIT WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND AS THE PCPN AREA MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER UPR MI REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z GRB RAOB. BEHIND THIS CLD
CLUSTER...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER AREA OF MID LVL DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV AND SFC HI PRES. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PRESENT OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN MOVING E THRU THE MEAN UPR RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH THE
HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO FCST TO DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV THAT WL
BE CROSSING THE UPR LKS THIS MRNG.
TODAY...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER WRN UPR MI AND BAND OF CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV WL CROSS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG.
APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/RISING HGTS/DNVA/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO TURN MOSUNNY WITH ONLY SOME
DIURNAL CU AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER UPR MI. FCST H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
14C OVER WRN UPR MI WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO PEAK NEAR 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER
SYNOPTIC N H925 FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV THAT WL
ACCENTUATE THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK BREEZES OFF THE BIG LK. THE
00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL DOES GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG LK
BREEZE BNDRYS...BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/LARGER SCALE DRYING AND ABSENCE OF QPF FM OTHER GUIDANCE.
COOLING NEAR LK MI WL BE MORE LOCALIZED. MIN AFTN RH WL DROP AS LO
AS 30-35 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF
INCOMING DRIER AIR THAT WL CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL OFF INTO THE UPR
40S THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FM LK
BREEZES...ALLEVIATING FIRE WX CONCERNS. THERE COULD BE GUSTIER WINDS
BEHIND THE LK BREEZE BNDRYS OFF LK SUP...BUT THE AIR WL BE MOISTER
THERE.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE OVHD UNDER BLDG UPR RDG. IN THE
PRESENCE OF PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.5 INCH /40-50 PCT OF NORMAL/...
MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP DROP INTO
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR. WL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE OVERNGT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
UNDER THE RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW
DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...MOST AREAS
OF THE CWA HAVE SEEN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS WHICH MEANS SOIL AND VEGETATION ARE BEGINNING TO GET FAIRLY
DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AS SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 14C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TREKS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING
850 THETA E ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST PEGGED MAINLY TO THE FRONT...DID NOT INCREASE TO LIKELY
POPS DUE TO CONTINUED TIMING ISSUES. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME
TIME THAT THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING
MOISTURE NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND SAW...GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
KEEP 3-5MI VIS AT A MINIMUM 08-12Z THURSDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS THRU SAT AND NEAR CALM
WAVES. S WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN STUBBORN CLOSED LO OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM SCENTRAL CANADA SWD THRU THE PLAINS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED
IN THIS NNW FLOW IS DIGGING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND SUPPORTING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN LK EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT CLD TOP
TEMPS ARE TENDING TO WARM/SHOWERS WEAKEN A BIT WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND AS THE PCPN AREA MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER UPR MI REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z GRB RAOB. BEHIND THIS CLD
CLUSTER...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER AREA OF MID LVL DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV AND SFC HI PRES. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PRESENT OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN MOVING E THRU THE MEAN UPR RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH THE
HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO FCST TO DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV THAT WL
BE CROSSING THE UPR LKS THIS MRNG.
TODAY...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER WRN UPR MI AND BAND OF CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV WL CROSS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG.
APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/RISING HGTS/DNVA/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO TURN MOSUNNY WITH ONLY SOME
DIURNAL CU AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER UPR MI. FCST H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
14C OVER WRN UPR MI WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO PEAK NEAR 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER
SYNOPTIC N H925 FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV THAT WL
ACCENTUATE THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK BREEZES OFF THE BIG LK. THE
00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL DOES GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG LK
BREEZE BNDRYS...BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/LARGER SCALE DRYING AND ABSENCE OF QPF FM OTHER GUIDANCE.
COOLING NEAR LK MI WL BE MORE LOCALIZED. MIN AFTN RH WL DROP AS LO
AS 30-35 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF
INCOMING DRIER AIR THAT WL CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL OFF INTO THE UPR
40S THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FM LK
BREEZES...ALLEVIATING FIRE WX CONCERNS. THERE COULD BE GUSTIER WINDS
BEHIND THE LK BREEZE BNDRYS OFF LK SUP...BUT THE AIR WL BE MOISTER
THERE.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE OVHD UNDER BLDG UPR RDG. IN THE
PRESENCE OF PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.5 INCH /40-50 PCT OF NORMAL/...
MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP DROP INTO
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR. WL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE OVERNGT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
UNDER THE RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW
DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...MOST AREAS
OF THE CWA HAVE SEEN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS WHICH MEANS SOIL AND VEGETATION ARE BEGINNING TO GET FAIRLY
DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AS SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 14C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TREKS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING
850 THETA E ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST PEGGED MAINLY TO THE FRONT...DID NOT INCREASE TO LIKELY
POPS DUE TO CONTINUED TIMING ISSUES. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME
TIME THAT THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING
MOISTURE NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
LINGERING FOG AT IWD WL BURN OFF QUICKLY SOON AFTER 12Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. OTRW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AS DRY HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPR LKS. SOME RADIATION FOG
MAY FORM LATE TNGT AT MAINLY IWD AND SAW WITH LGT WINDS UNDER MOCLR
SKIES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS AT
THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS THRU SAT AND NEAR CALM
WAVES. S WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN STUBBORN CLOSED LO OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM SCENTRAL CANADA SWD THRU THE PLAINS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED
IN THIS NNW FLOW IS DIGGING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND SUPPORTING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN LK EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT CLD TOP
TEMPS ARE TENDING TO WARM/SHOWERS WEAKEN A BIT WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND AS THE PCPN AREA MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER UPR MI REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z GRB RAOB. BEHIND THIS CLD
CLUSTER...SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER AREA OF MID LVL DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV AND SFC HI PRES. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PRESENT OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN MOVING E THRU THE MEAN UPR RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH THE
HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO FCST TO DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV THAT WL
BE CROSSING THE UPR LKS THIS MRNG.
TODAY...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER WRN UPR MI AND BAND OF CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHRTWV WL CROSS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG.
APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/RISING HGTS/DNVA/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO TURN MOSUNNY WITH ONLY SOME
DIURNAL CU AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER UPR MI. FCST H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
14C OVER WRN UPR MI WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO PEAK NEAR 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER
SYNOPTIC N H925 FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV THAT WL
ACCENTUATE THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK BREEZES OFF THE BIG LK. THE
00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL DOES GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG LK
BREEZE BNDRYS...BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/LARGER SCALE DRYING AND ABSENCE OF QPF FM OTHER GUIDANCE.
COOLING NEAR LK MI WL BE MORE LOCALIZED. MIN AFTN RH WL DROP AS LO
AS 30-35 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF
INCOMING DRIER AIR THAT WL CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL OFF INTO THE UPR
40S THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FM LK
BREEZES...ALLEVIATING FIRE WX CONCERNS. THERE COULD BE GUSTIER WINDS
BEHIND THE LK BREEZE BNDRYS OFF LK SUP...BUT THE AIR WL BE MOISTER
THERE.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE OVHD UNDER BLDG UPR RDG. IN THE
PRESENCE OF PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.5 INCH /40-50 PCT OF NORMAL/...
MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL TEMP DROP INTO
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR. WL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE OVERNGT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
UNDER THE RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW
DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...MOST AREAS
OF THE CWA HAVE SEEN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS WHICH MEANS SOIL AND VEGETATION ARE BEGINNING TO GET FAIRLY
DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AS SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 14C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TREKS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING
850 THETA E ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST PEGGED MAINLY TO THE FRONT...DID NOT INCREASE TO LIKELY
POPS DUE TO CONTINUED TIMING ISSUES. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME
TIME THAT THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING
MOISTURE NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT WILL BRING IFR VSBYS TO IWD
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THE
TAF SITES WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS THRU SAT AND NEAR CALM
WAVES. S WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIMING BEST PCPN
CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING. A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER BUT MOVING OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED AROUND
500 MB WAS OVER NRN UT. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE
NOTED FROM UT INTO WY AND CO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS NOTED OVER WRN IA. KOAX SOUNDING FROM
12Z SHOWED ABOUT 1.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH DID NOT DO A PERFECT JOB
LAST EVENING...BUT WAS FAIRLY GOOD...SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD TEND TO BUILD IN
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER DRYING A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG...SO ADDED THAT. THE SPOTTY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY FROM 63 TO 66. SOME
LIGHT PCPN COULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER FRIDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND
SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN
TO MAINLY THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
THEN WENT MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT
TURNS WET TOWARD DAY 7 WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND LIFTED INDICES DROP. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
80S AND LOWS 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FCST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WITH ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER ERN NEB...TIMING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FROM MVFR TO LIFR ROUGHLY BTWN
04Z-08Z WITH LIFR PREVAILING UP TO 14Z FRI MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CIGS WILL HANG
TIGHT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF OVC SKIES. THE UPDATES WERE TRENDED TOWARD THE LATEST
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GOING FORECAST
WILL KEEP OVC SKIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE EFFECTS SOLAR INSOLATION
ON THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE/EARTH SFC. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING QUASI- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DIRECT ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS ARE
REALIZED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...PWATS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS ARE DRYING SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TWO SD ABOVE THE MEAN...AND GIVEN
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF GREATER THAN 11-12K FEET...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MODELS HAS
VANISHED LEAVING FOR SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS DYNAMICAL FORCING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING AND A SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. BOTH COULD SERVE
AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM AND OTHER
MODELS SHOW POCKETS OF K INDICES AROUND 40C THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE IS POOLING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CNTL NEB. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IT WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD
OCCUR FROM NOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUS THE MODELS SHOW DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF THE LACK OF FOCUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BECOMES
ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF AND POPS FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES EAST OF VALENTINE INCLUDING CUSTER
COUNTY. THIS FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE
ECM...GFS...NAM...GEM AND SREF AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL
HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL.
COOLER AIR WILL FILLS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH
AND EAST INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LOCATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE RIDERS TO CROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
MODELS DROP PWATS EARLY...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO
GREATER THAN 2 SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORING SW NEB AND WILL RETAIN HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE BRINGING ADDITIONAL WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BE KEY TO AFTERNOON PEAKS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS BEGINS TO REBUILD
THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
FLATTENED. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST COMPARED TO THE
EC...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...PER GFS SOLUTION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED FORECAST AS WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. LESS CERTAINTY FOR TEMPS AND WILL
KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MONITOR TO SEE HOW MODELS CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
DEGREE OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/EROSION A CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS POINT TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON...ATHOUGH THE SATELLITE LOOP DOESN/T PROVIDE MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS STRATUS DECK HAS SPREAD SOUTH TO NEAR
INTERSTATE 80 TO INCLUDE THE KLBF TERMINAL. GOING FORWARD THE
STRATUS LAYER MAY LIFT A FEW MORE HUNDRED FEET AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING THEN DROPPING TO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. THE STRATUS
(MVFR CONDITIONS) MAY INPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN LIFT UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEYOND THE STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE KLBF TERMINAL AS WELL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF OVC SKIES. THE UPDATES WERE TRENDED TOWARD THE LATEST
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GOING FORECAST
WILL KEEP OVC SKIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE EFFECTS SOLAR INSOLATION
ON THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE/EARTH SFC. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING QUASI- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DIRECT ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS ARE
REALIZED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...PWATS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS ARE DRYING SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TWO SD ABOVE THE MEAN...AND GIVEN
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF GREATER THAN 11-12K FEET...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MODELS HAS
VANISHED LEAVING FOR SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS DYNAMICAL FORCING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING AND A SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. BOTH COULD SERVE
AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM AND OTHER
MODELS SHOW POCKETS OF K INDICES AROUND 40C THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE IS POOLING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CNTL NEB. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IT WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD
OCCUR FROM NOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUS THE MODELS SHOW DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF THE LACK OF FOCUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BECOMES
ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF AND POPS FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES EAST OF VALENTINE INCLUDING CUSTER
COUNTY. THIS FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE
ECM...GFS...NAM...GEM AND SREF AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL
HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL.
COOLER AIR WILL FILLS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH
AND EAST INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LOCATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE RIDERS TO CROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
MODELS DROP PWATS EARLY...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO
GREATER THAN 2 SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORING SW NEB AND WILL RETAIN HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE BRINGING ADDITIONAL WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BE KEY TO AFTERNOON PEAKS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS BEGINS TO REBUILD
THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
FLATTENED. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST COMPARED TO THE
EC...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...PER GFS SOLUTION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED FORECAST AS WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. LESS CERTAINTY FOR TEMPS AND WILL
KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MONITOR TO SEE HOW MODELS CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
KVTN TERMINAL FORECAST UPDATED AS SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A 3000 FT LAYER OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
THE CURRENT LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH 16Z THEN CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS NEAR 5000 FT AROUND 21Z. THE
SEMI STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT WHERE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL KEEP
LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. A REPEAT TONIGHT
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH THE LOW STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE THE KLBF TERMINAL THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
937 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MODELS HAS
VANISHED LEAVING FOR SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS DYNAMICAL FORCING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING AND A SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. BOTH COULD SERVE
AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM AND OTHER
MODELS SHOW POCKETS OF K INDICES AROUND 40C THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE IS POOLING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CNTL NEB. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IT WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD
OCCUR FROM NOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUS THE MODELS SHOW DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF THE LACK OF FOCUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BECOMES
ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF AND POPS FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES EAST OF VALENTINE INCLUDING CUSTER
COUNTY. THIS FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE
ECM...GFS...NAM...GEM AND SREF AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL
HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL.
COOLER AIR WILL FILLS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH
AND EAST INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LOCATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE RIDERS TO CROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
MODELS DROP PWATS EARLY...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO
GREATER THAN 2 SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORING SW NEB AND WILL RETAIN HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE BRINGING ADDITIONAL WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BE KEY TO AFTERNOON PEAKS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS BEGINS TO REBUILD
THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
FLATTENED. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST COMPARED TO THE
EC...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...PER GFS SOLUTION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED FORECAST AS WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. LESS CERTAINTY FOR TEMPS AND WILL
KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MONITOR TO SEE HOW MODELS CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
KVTN TERMINAL FORECAST UPDATED AS SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A 3000 FT LAYER OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
THE CURRENT LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH 16Z THEN CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS NEAR 5000 FT AROUND 21Z. THE
SEMI STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT WHERE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL KEEP
LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. A REPEAT TONIGHT
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH THE LOW STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE THE KLBF TERMINAL THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MODELS HAS
VANISHED LEAVING FOR SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS DYNAMICAL FORCING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING AND A SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. BOTH COULD SERVE
AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM AND OTHER
MODELS SHOW POCKETS OF K INDICES AROUND 40C THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE IS POOLING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CNTL NEB. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IT WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD
OCCUR FROM NOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUS THE MODELS SHOW DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF THE LACK OF FOCUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BECOMES
ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF AND POPS FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES EAST OF VALENTINE INCLUDING CUSTER
COUNTY. THIS FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE
ECM...GFS...NAM...GEM AND SREF AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL
HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL.
COOLER AIR WILL FILLS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH
AND EAST INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LOCATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE RIDERS TO CROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
MODELS DROP PWATS EARLY...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO
GREATER THAN 2 SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORING SW NEB AND WILL RETAIN HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE BRINGING ADDITIONAL WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BE KEY TO AFTERNOON PEAKS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS BEGINS TO REBUILD
THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
FLATTENED. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST COMPARED TO THE
EC...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...PER GFS SOLUTION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED FORECAST AS WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. LESS CERTAINTY FOR TEMPS AND WILL
KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MONITOR TO SEE HOW MODELS CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THE LIFR/IFR
CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND/OR SCATTER OUT 15Z-18Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS RETURN
03Z-06Z TONIGHT ACROSS NWRN/NCNTL NEB AND PERHAPS DEVELOP AS FAR
SOUTH AS I-80 BY 10Z THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TIMING AND EXTENT OF NUMEROUS PRECIP EVENTS REMAINS THE MAIN
CONCERN AND PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AT 07Z GENERALLY ALONG AXIS OF 850-700MB
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE RAP MAINTAINS THE PRIMARY AXIS
NEAR NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SOME DRIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT POPS BASED ON THIS IDEA
WITH LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
MODELS DROP WESTERN NEBRASKA SURFACE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY ALSO MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS TO BECOME MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA IN LINE WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH A GENERAL DRIFT TO THE EAST. POPS DECREASE WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND BETTER
MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES THAT THEN MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW POPS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
EURO NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS. SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
REGARDING POPS AS EURO KEEPS UPPER WAVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW INSTEAD OF CARRYING SLIGHT POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KOFK/KOMA. STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON/EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. WINDS
INITIALLY SOUTHEASTERLY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR
STORMS...BUT BACK WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST AND
EVEN NORTH TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BY
05-07Z...AND COULD EVEN BECOME LIFR AT KOFK BY 07Z AND BEYOND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MODELS HAS
VANISHED LEAVING FOR SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS DYNAMICAL FORCING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING AND A SECOND WEAKER DISTURBANCE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. BOTH COULD SERVE
AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM AND OTHER
MODELS SHOW POCKETS OF K INDICES AROUND 40C THIS AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS MOISTURE IS POOLING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CNTL NEB. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IT WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD
OCCUR FROM NOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUS THE MODELS SHOW DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF THE LACK OF FOCUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BECOMES
ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF AND POPS FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES EAST OF VALENTINE INCLUDING CUSTER
COUNTY. THIS FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE
ECM...GFS...NAM...GEM AND SREF AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL
HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL.
COOLER AIR WILL FILLS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH
AND EAST INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ONCE
AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE LOCATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE RIDERS TO CROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
MODELS DROP PWATS EARLY...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO
GREATER THAN 2 SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORING SW NEB AND WILL RETAIN HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE BRINGING ADDITIONAL WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BE KEY TO AFTERNOON PEAKS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS BEGINS TO REBUILD
THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
FLATTENED. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST COMPARED TO THE
EC...HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...PER GFS SOLUTION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED FORECAST AS WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. LESS CERTAINTY FOR TEMPS AND WILL
KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MONITOR TO SEE HOW MODELS CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
ONE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL AFFECT THE AREA INCLUDING VTN...ANW AND
ONL UNTIL 10Z OR 11Z. AFTER THE STORMS END...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH
PATCHY MIST OR FOG. CEILINGS BELOW 1500 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY. A
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS WOULD INDICATE WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INCLUDING ONL...ANW... VTN AND MHN.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD BE
AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING OUT OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CURRENT TRENDS FROM RADAR INDICATE THAT THEY WILL STAY
SOUTH OF BBW...LBF AND OGA BUT WILL PROBABLY AFFECT IML.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
TIMING AND EXTENT OF NUMEROUS PRECIP EVENTS REMAINS THE MAIN
CONCERN AND PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AT 07Z GENERALLY ALONG AXIS OF 850-700MB
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE RAP MAINTAINS THE PRIMARY AXIS
NEAR NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SOME DRIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT POPS BASED ON THIS IDEA
WITH LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
MODELS DROP WESTERN NEBRASKA SURFACE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY ALSO MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS TO BECOME MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA IN LINE WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH A GENERAL DRIFT TO THE EAST. POPS DECREASE WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND BETTER
MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES THAT THEN MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW POPS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
EURO NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS. SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
REGARDING POPS AS EURO KEEPS UPPER WAVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW INSTEAD OF CARRYING SLIGHT POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL OBS SHOWING CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ACROSS
ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO TSRA ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE. ALL THIS IN PART TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY
CUTTING ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR/TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER...LIKELY THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL HANG TIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1207 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN INDICATING. BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE FLATTENING RIDGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THE 315K SURFACE AND PW`S NEAR
2.00" SHOULD LAY OUT 1-2"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. FORECASTED QPF VALUES
HAVE HAD FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BULLSEYE
AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
SFC LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND HUGS THE WESTERN KS/NE
BORDER BY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND FORCING FROM ANOTHER WEAK APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER IN THE DAY OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
INTERMITTENT PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL OBS SHOWING CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ACROSS
ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO TSRA ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE. ALL THIS IN PART TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY
CUTTING ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR/TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER...LIKELY THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL HANG TIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24HRS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLVS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
ON WEDNESDAY...STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BACK INTO THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM COVERAGE WILL
SLOWLY START TO INCREASE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
RETURN. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
RECENT WEEKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO NM PER WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 12Z FGZ SOUNDING. AS SUCH...CONVECTION HAS REALLY
STRUGGLED TO START...OR MAINTAIN ITSELF WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT LIKELY SETTING UP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT HAS
PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WITH THE AID OF A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NM...AND DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO MID
LEVELS...HAVE ALREADY SEEN ONE SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE NE...AND A
FEW MORE STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH STORM MOTIONS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH...THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS CONSIDERABLY DECREASED...THOUGH ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN BIGGER DOWN TICK
IN STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS LOOK TO CRATER TO AROUND 0.50
INCHES...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON THE FGZ SOUNDING THIS AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...AS
SOME DISTURBANCE...LIKELY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION OVER
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NM. PWATS WILL CREEP UP
ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NONETHELESS... A FEW MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE NAM IS
SUGGESTING AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL BE
A FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS
HERE...BUT NOT OVERLY SOLD YET. NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND IT ACROSS THE FAR NE MAY BE A
BETTER BET FOR STORMS.
LOOKING FOR A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
OVER OKLAHOMA...THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS AT BRING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD DESPITE THE FAVORABLE PATTERN. THIS MAY CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
FRIDAY...OTHER THAN THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND STORMS
AROUND. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
AUGUST. LOOKS LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT BACK
OVER NM...DIVERTING THE MOISTURE PLUME WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID LOWER DEWPOINT
VALUES THUS RH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE DYNAMIC DRY SLOT/MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
PATTERN...VEGETATION WILL BE GOING OVERTIME IN TERMS OF
TRANSPIRATION AT NIGHT SO RAISED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINT VALUES SOME
ACROSS THE EAST. MOIST SOILS WILL ALSO KEEP DEWPOINT READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS
WED/THUR PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE. THEN MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS SO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO FIRE
STARTS UP THAT BECAUSE OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS WETTING RAIN...OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE PRETTY
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK. A FEW WETTING STORMS
FAVORING THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF WILL OCCUR REST OF TODAY BUT
PRETTY ISOLATED. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CELLS PRETTY LIMITED
WEDNESDAY. A BAGGY TROUGH OR WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW TRANSITION IN TERMS OF
WETTING RAIN COVERAGE BUT THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BASED ON MODEL
COMPARISONS THE PAST DAY OR SO AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF
YEAR. THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL HAVE SAGGED SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES LOOK FOR IT TO TRY TO
STRENGTHEN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD DUE TO
THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE NECESSARY DRIVERS OR INGREDIENTS WOULD BE
IN PLACE TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD EVENTUALLY WARM SOME BUT
HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEST AND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EAST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL
DRIVERS. THE STRONGEST WIND FOR THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE
TODAY AND FAVOR THE EAST. ANY THUNDER CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
CONTAIN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL/SFC DRYING.
LOOKING AT A RETURN TO SOME HAINES 5/6 VALUES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HAINES 6 MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DECENT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BUT LOWER SOME DURING THE WEEKEND.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL
PLACEMENT WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. STILL LOOKING AT A
BAGGY TROUGH TO THE WEST. THUS...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE ITSELF OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. HOW
MUCH AND EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL A LITTLE TRICKY. ANOTHER FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WOULD BE AN EASTERLY WAVE COMING OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS EASTERLY WAVE WOULD DRAG
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VERSUS
PROVIDING A MOISTENING TREND BUT HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. A PRETTY
TYPICAL PERIOD FOR THE WET PHASE OF THE MONSOON SUMMER PERIOD SO
NOTHING REAL UNUSUAL UPCOMING.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY. A GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A LARGE
REGION OF HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH A STRETCH OF DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A GENERALLY PLEASANT AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND A NORTHERLY
BREEZE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NOAM...AND THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
IS NOW PRODUCING A SHIELD OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER THE OTTAWA
VALLEY...THOSE CLOUDS MOST APPARENT IN 12Z BTV-4/15Z RAP AS A
RIBBON OF 850-700MB RH. SOME MODEST PROGGED VERTICAL MOTION IN
THAT LAYER AS WELL. SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
QPF WITH THE SHOWERS...A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE CLEAREST ACROSS EASTERN VT/CT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT COOLING WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. I OPTED TO TREND TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER
SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS GENERALLY COOLEST IN
THE `DACKS AND ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPS ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AS PROGGED BY 12Z NAM
GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 TO UNDER 1000 J/KG...KEPT DOWN BY DRY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SFC HEATING WILL ALSO TEND TO LOWER AS THE
DAY GOES ON AS WELL AS HEATING SHOULD READILY PRODUCE CUMULUS
CLOUDS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE FEEL THREAT FOR
THUNDER WOULD BE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT ANY ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
PRESENCE OF LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /7-9 KFT/. HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CELLULAR ACTIVITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE
AS THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT OTHER CONVECTIVE MODES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO IS LOW. NO ENHANCED WORDING ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
NON-SEVERE T-STORMS CAPABLE OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL. POPS TREND UPWARD
THROUGH THE AFTN TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY WHEN BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING OVERLAP...BEFORE
LOWERING BY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER .25" THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS OF +7 TO +9C...IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...COOLEST IN EASTERN VT AND MILDER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC TO BL WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
ASIDE FROM SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREA...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH AFTN FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS. 850 TEMPS WARM
UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
A FEW SPOT 80 DEGREE READINGS. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS...WITH LOWS RANGING
IN THE MID 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN
PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO UNDER FULL SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON TIMING WHICH WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
PROGS ARE POINTING TOWARDS AN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROPA...BUT
THIS FAR OUT IT`S TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADS
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
COMES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM KSLK EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU - 12Z FRI...PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND IFR. POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND
KMPV.
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG/BR
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL STALL ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:50 PM THURSDAY...LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A MULTITUDE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SOME HAVE BECOME THE FOCUS OF SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTION. ON THE WHOLE...THEY HAVE OBSCURED THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME STALLED IN THE AREA. IN GENERAL THIS
ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND IS ON A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND. GIVEN CONTINUED AMPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECT THAT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POP INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING REDUCES COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN
THROUGH MARION TO JUST NORTH OF KINGSTREE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING AT THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING CONVECTION
IN SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEVELOP ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES SEEN IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION RADAR
DATA. WE CAN EVEN SEE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH OF LAKE
WACCAMAW BUT WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH IS STRUGGLING. THIS MAY BE THE HIGH LCL VALUES AND THE
STORMS ARE NEEDING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN WHAT IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOW CONVECTION A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GENERALLY THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITIES ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT BUT
THERE IS ABSOLUTE NO CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE OTHER FORCING IN THE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE HRRR IS NOT BULLISH ON CONVECTION ON
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SO HAVE A GONE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND A TAILING BAND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTION IS NOT THAT HIGH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATES 20 AND 95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS FRI MORNING...BUT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.
THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING
FRI...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
POPS WILL REMAIN LOWER ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI...
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BY 12Z SAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PCPN CHANCES AREA-WIDE. PWATS SURGE ABOVE
2.0 INCHES ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SAT AFTN AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER IMPULSES ALLOW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF 5-10 KT AT
BEST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. THIS YIELDED HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN TO MODIFY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME...A PROGRESSIVE S/W
RIDGE TO BYPASS THE FA TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
THE ILM CWA...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL GET LEFT BEHIND THRU TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVBL AS SEEN THRU MODEL SOUNDINGS. POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED HIRE
THAN CLIMO ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HRS. WILL KEEP TEMPS A CAT
OR 2 BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
FOR WED THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROFFING ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE U.S. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ILM CWA...IS THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO GET THIS...STALL ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THIS BECAUSE THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THUS ELIMINATING ANY FURTHER SE PUSH
TO THE COLD FRONT. POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED ABOVE CLIMO
DUE TO THE AVAIL FORCING AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AT THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE ILM FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOREST
INLAND...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WAVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
EASTERLY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:50 PM THURSDAY...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS NOW MOVING
SLOWLY SE ACROSS AMZ252 OFF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ALERT THE MARITIME
COMMUNITY TO THIS THREAT. THE FORECAST ITSELF OTHERWISE REMAINS
UNCHANGED...WITH LIGHT WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SEA BREEZE HAS HELPED BRING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WITH A WEAKER WEST WIND TO THE EAST OF THIS DENSITY
CURRENT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS DO TO A LACK OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
THE SWELL FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM NOW A NON- PLAYER SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF WEAK BACKGROUND SE SWELL AND LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT FRI. AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SAT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS TO A SOLID 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS
MET THIS PERIOD.
HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT ONCE AGAIN THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST THRUOUT THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. OVERALL...HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE GFS
MODEL INPUT. THE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE THE EASIER OF THE 2 WIND
PARAMETERS. BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU
THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THE PROGGED SFC LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS. THAT IS WHERE THE PROGGED HIDER WIND
SPEEDS WILL RESIDE. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM WATERS
WILL OCCUR AT ALMOST ANY TIME DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...MAINLY FROM
AN ESE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS COULD REACH 4 FEET OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE 4 FOOTERS WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...DCH/REK/BJR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
113 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 113 PM WEDNESDAY...A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE KEYS ON THE AREA OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WHICH IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A FLORENCE TO MYRTLE BEACH
LINE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF BLADEN COUNTY.
THIS FITS WELL WITH THE 13 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FIELD
WHICH INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL FORM IN THAT AREA AND RUN
ALONG AN AXIS FROM BLADEN COUNTY THROUGH DARLINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 23
UTC. ALSO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TP DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MAINLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND
SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S
EXCEPT FOR MID 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH GETS PUSHES TO THE COAST
EARLY THURSDAY BY INCREASINGLY DEEP LAYER NWRLY FLOW AROUND DEEP
UPPER FEATURE NORTH OF MAINE. AS THE DAY WEARS ON IT IS DRAWN BACK
SLIGHTLY INLAND AS A PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE YIELDS GENTLE PRESSURE
FALLS OVER LAND. ISOLATED CONVECTION THUS SEEMS POSSIBLE...AND GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION THE POPS
WILL BE GRADED FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE EVENING A COLD FRONT
ENTERS NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME NVA GOING ON IN
THE MID LEVELS FROM THE EXITING AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE...POPS MAY TREND
DOWNWARD FOR A BIT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE WORDING FEATURED IN
PREV FORECAST. BY 06Z FRIDAY THE FRONT IS ALREADY SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WE SHOULD STAY DRY. RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH BACK NORTHWARD AND THEN
THERE IS A SHIFT TO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AS A WEAK VORT CENTER
INTERACTS WITH WHAT MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS SOME VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST...AGAIN FAVORING WESTERN
ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE THE WEEKEND IS
NOW SHAPING UP TO BE ANYWHERE FROM QUITE UNSETTLED TO JUST ABOUT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIPPLES OF SURFACE AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT TO PRODUCE LITTLE BURSTS OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. NOT TO SAY THAT RAIN WILL EVER BE OVERLY HEAVY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND THAT RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT BEING SOLIDLY IN THE FORECAST. DAYTIME HIGHS OBVIOUSLY HELD
BELOW CLIMO WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME SHOWING CONTINUED WEDGING (SEEMINGLY PROBABLE) WHILE
OTHERS SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE UP AND DOWN THE
COAST MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WHILE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES POORLY DEFINED. LUCKILY THE END RESULT MAY BE THE SAME
LOCALLY WITH A CONTINUATION OF INHIBITED AFTERNOON HIGHS ALONG WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND NORTHEAST
OF A KFLO TO KEYF LINE . A DIRECT HIT AT THE COAST TERMINALS IS
RATHER UNLIKELY...WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION. WESTERLY WINDS INLAND
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH MVFR FOG A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THURSDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH MAINLY A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/MVFR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 113 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEA BREEZE IS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE
AND THE WEST WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AT 1610 UTC...THE MASONBORO INLET
BUOY...41110...WAS DETECTING A 2.6 FOOT SWELL WITH A 8.3 SECOND
PERIOD FROM THE WAKE OF THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS SWELL CONTINUING THROUGH OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING BY THIS EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY SUNRISE AND
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATER
OVERNIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE CIRUCLATION DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL BE
QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST...MORE SO THAN NORMAL...KEEPING THE WINDS
VERY LIGHT. WITH NO LINGERING BERTHA SWELLS SEAS SHOULD BE CAPPED
AT 2 TO 3 FT. WIND SWINGS AROUND TO NE AND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS USUAL WITH FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR THERE WILL BE NO BIG SURGE OF HIGHER WIND OR PRESSURE. SO
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SHORTENING OF THE DOMINANT PERIOD FROM THE
WIND SHIFT THERE WILL NOT BE AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SEAS
FOLLOWING FROPA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER AND MEANDER JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF
THE EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WIND SPEED UNCERTAINTY BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO MUCH MUCH OF THE PERIOD HINGING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH THAT WILL SIT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME FLAT
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY RIPPLE ALONG ITS LENGTH. OVERALL
THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN CAUTIONARY HEADLINES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1249 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TSRA CHANCES THIS PERIOD. IT
APPEARS BASED ON WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE KS
BORDER...WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE
EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENUF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
WILL BE LOCATED TO INCLUDE VCTS AND PROB30 MENTIONS IN THE NE OK
AND NW AR TAFS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL
OK THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...THE 500MB-300MB
LEVEL HAS MOISTENED UP QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THE 00Z
SOUNDING...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE BASICALLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THIS
LAYER AND THUS NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF DATA ALL SUGGEST GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS BAND AS IT HEADS
EAST THRU THE DAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
TREND FOR HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THIS MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT DOES
SO...THUS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED. THE LATEST DATA IS ALSO
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED STORM
CHANCES...SUGGESTING THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH UP IN
KANSAS WHERE A FOCUSING BOUNDARY LIES...IN THIS CASE AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME DVLPMT NEAR THE
KS BORDER HOWEVER. THE GOING LOW POPS NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL BE
LEFT ALONE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KS/OK
BORDER WILL SLIDE/DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR. TAF SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS KXNA KFYV WITH
PROB30 RISK TSRA DURING EVENING / LATE NIGHT HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. APPEARS AN H5 SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SWING
THROUGH OK/KS/AR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRY TO DRAG A
WEAK FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OCCASIONAL H5 SHORT WAVES AND
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE AND PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EACH DAY AND NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. APPEARS CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KS NEAR
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE ABOUT TUESDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT MODEL
BLENDS KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 75 95 75 95 / 40 20 10 20
FSM 74 94 73 96 / 30 30 10 20
MLC 75 95 75 98 / 30 20 10 20
BVO 72 96 71 95 / 50 20 10 20
FYV 72 90 71 92 / 40 40 20 30
BYV 71 88 71 90 / 40 50 20 30
MKO 74 94 73 96 / 40 30 10 20
MIO 74 93 72 93 / 60 30 20 20
F10 74 95 74 95 / 30 20 10 20
HHW 74 94 73 98 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
835 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL
OK THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...THE 500MB-300MB
LEVEL HAS MOISTENED UP QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THE 00Z
SOUNDING...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE BASICALLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THIS
LAYER AND THUS NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF DATA ALL SUGGEST GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS BAND AS IT HEADS
EAST THRU THE DAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
TREND FOR HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THIS MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT DOES
SO...THUS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED. THE LATEST DATA IS ALSO
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED STORM
CHANCES...SUGGESTING THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH UP IN
KANSAS WHERE A FOCUSING BOUNDARY LIES...IN THIS CASE AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME DVLPMT NEAR THE
KS BORDER HOWEVER. THE GOING LOW POPS NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL BE
LEFT ALONE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KS/OK
BORDER WILL SLIDE/DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR. TAF SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS KXNA KFYV WITH
PROB30 RISK TSRA DURING EVENING / LATE NIGHT HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. APPEARS AN H5 SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SWING
THROUGH OK/KS/AR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRY TO DRAG A
WEAK FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OCCASIONAL H5 SHORT WAVES AND
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE AND PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EACH DAY AND NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. APPEARS CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KS NEAR
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE ABOUT TUESDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT MODEL
BLENDS KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 94 76 95 75 / 10 30 30 20
FSM 94 73 93 73 / 10 10 30 20
MLC 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 20 10
BVO 94 71 94 69 / 20 40 30 20
FYV 91 71 90 69 / 10 20 40 20
BYV 92 71 90 71 / 10 20 40 30
MKO 94 73 94 72 / 10 20 20 20
MIO 93 73 91 71 / 20 50 40 30
F10 93 72 93 72 / 10 20 20 10
HHW 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
616 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE TONIGHT...AND LAST INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED PACKAGE AT 6 PM...TO TAKE OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NE PART OF CENTRAL PA.
STILL LOOKING OVER DATA ETC...WILL DO MORE UPDATES AS
NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RUC SHOWS CAPES IN THE 500-1500J RANGE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH
OF A POTENT JET STREAK...WE ARE SEEING RADAR GETTING MORE ACTIVE
AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO POP IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS POPCORN RANDOM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FADE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT
21Z. SHOULD LEAD TO A FINE MID SUMMER EVENING IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL AND DRY...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER
THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG LATER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE GR LAKES WILL BRING THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL FINE MID SUMMER DAYS TO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS
HINT AT A WEAK SPOKE OF VORTICITY SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE NERN
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE GEFS DOESN`T SUPPORT THIS AND WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO RISE...I DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY
THE ALREADY SMALL POPS. I WOUDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...BUT I OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC WORDING FOR THE
FORECAST...LEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY PLEASANT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...STILL A TAD
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWING BRIEF DEAMPLIFICATION BEHIND THE SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN OF THE
FAMILIAR WRN RIDGE/ERN NOAM TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR
MOST OF THE SUMMER.
AMPLIFICATION OF SERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE ERN U.S.
LATE-PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEWD PUSH OF A COLD FRONT INITIALLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO DISPLACE A QSTRNY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL APPLCHNS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 06/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE PLACEMENT OF MAIN
PCPN AXIS ASSOCD WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVG ALONG THE WAVY
BOUNDARY. A CONSENSUS BLEND STILL FAVORS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA /VA INTO THE CAROLINAS/ WHERE THE BEST MSTR/PWS WILL
RESIDE - ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE FAR SWRN/SCNTRL
ZONES THIS WEEKEND AS THIS AREA WILL BE VULNERABLE ON THE NRN EDGE
OF MSTR GRADIENT/DEVELOPING SELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
NORTH TO EAST LLVL FLOW TO THE S OF NEW ENGLAND HP SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND PERHAPS COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS
/ASSUMING CLR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY DRY AIR/. PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN
DEVELOPING ESE FLOW MAY ALSO ACT TO TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS WHILE
POTENTIALLY KEEPING THINGS WARMER AT NIGHT. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY MAJOR WARMING TRENDS.
SPREAD BTWN OP GFS/ECMWF REALLY INCREASES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE NWD WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
SUPPRESSED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR ECMWF SOLN WHICH BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THRU THE AREA ON WED FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL DOWN IN ITS
WAKE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN AND LARGE MODEL
SPREAD/DETAIL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTOONA IS THE LONE HOLDOUT WITH A 2600` CEILING AS OF 2PM...BUT
THIS TOO SHOULD RISE AND MIX OUT BEFORE TOO LONG. OTHER THAN A HIT
AND MISS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
AS EVENING APPROACHES..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FADE.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS
DRIER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF NON-EVENTFUL WEATHER
AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE TONIGHT...AND LAST INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
RUC SHOWS CAPES IN THE 500-1500J RANGE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH
OF A POTENT JET STREAK...WE ARE SEEING RADAR GETTING MORE ACTIVE
AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO POP IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS POPCORN RANDOM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FADE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT
21Z. SHOULD LEAD TO A FINE MID SUMMER EVENING IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL AND DRY...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER
THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG LATER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE GR LAKES WILL BRING THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL FINE MID SUMMER DAYS TO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS
HINT AT A WEAK SPOKE OF VORTICITY SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE NERN
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE GEFS DOESN`T SUPPORT THIS AND WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO RISE...I DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY
THE ALREADY SMALL POPS. I WOUDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...BUT I OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC WORDING FOR THE
FORECAST...LEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY PLEASANT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...STILL A TAD
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWING BRIEF DEAMPLIFICATION BEHIND THE SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN OF THE
FAMILIAR WRN RIDGE/ERN NOAM TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR
MOST OF THE SUMMER.
AMPLIFICATION OF SERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE ERN U.S.
LATE-PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEWD PUSH OF A COLD FRONT INITIALLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO DISPLACE A QSTRNY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL APPLCHNS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 06/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE PLACEMENT OF MAIN
PCPN AXIS ASSOCD WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVG ALONG THE WAVY
BOUNDARY. A CONSENSUS BLEND STILL FAVORS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA /VA INTO THE CAROLINAS/ WHERE THE BEST MSTR/PWS WILL
RESIDE - ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE FAR SWRN/SCNTRL
ZONES THIS WEEKEND AS THIS AREA WILL BE VULNERABLE ON THE NRN EDGE
OF MSTR GRADIENT/DEVELOPING SELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
NORTH TO EAST LLVL FLOW TO THE S OF NEW ENGLAND HP SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND PERHAPS COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS
/ASSUMING CLR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY DRY AIR/. PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN
DEVELOPING ESE FLOW MAY ALSO ACT TO TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS WHILE
POTENTIALLY KEEPING THINGS WARMER AT NIGHT. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY MAJOR WARMING TRENDS.
SPREAD BTWN OP GFS/ECMWF REALLY INCREASES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE NWD WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
SUPPRESSED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR ECMWF SOLN WHICH BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THRU THE AREA ON WED FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL DOWN IN ITS
WAKE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN AND LARGE MODEL
SPREAD/DETAIL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTOONA IS THE LONE HOLDOUT WITH A 2600` CEILING AS OF 2PM...BUT
THIS TOO SHOULD RISE AND MIX OUT BEFORE TOO LONG. OTHER THAN A HIT
AND MISS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
AS EVENING APPROACHES..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FADE.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS
DRIER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF NON-EVENTFUL WEATHER
AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE TONIGHT...AND LAST INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
RUC SHOWS CAPES IN THE 500-1500J RANGE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH
OF A POTENT JET STREAK...WE ARE SEEING RADAR GETTING MORE ACTIVE
AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO POP IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS POPCORN RANDOM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FADE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT
21Z. SHOULD LEAD TO A FINE MID SUMMER EVENING IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL AND DRY...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER
THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG LATER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE GR LAKES WILL BRING THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL FINE MID SUMMER DAYS TO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS
HINT AT A WEAK SPOKE OF VORTICITY SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE NERN
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE GEFS DOESN`T SUPPORT THIS AND WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO RISE...I DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY
THE ALREADY SMALL POPS. I WOUDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...BUT I OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC WORDING FOR THE
FORECAST...LEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY PLEASANT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...STILL A TAD
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND 500MB HEIGHT RISES SHOULD GRADUALLY REPLACE
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/CYC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION FRI-
SUN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER
GRT LKS/SERN CANADA SHOULD PROVIDE A STRING OF DRY WX WITH
PLEASANT DAYS AND RELATIVELY COOL NGTS. 05/12Z MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN SOUTH OF PA
ALONG A NW/SE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
FROM THE MID MO/LWR OH VLYS INTO THE SRN/CNTRL APPLCHNS AND SRN
MID-ATLC/SE STATES. THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCR MSTR/SLY WINDS CONSISTENT
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HP...WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTOONA IS THE LONE HOLDOUT WITH A 2600` CEILING AS OF 2PM...BUT
THIS TOO SHOULD RISE AND MIX OUT BEFORE TOO LONG. OTHER THAN A HIT
AND MISS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
AS EVENING APPROACHES..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FADE.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS
DRIER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF NON-EVENTFUL WEATHER
AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1047 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE TONIGHT...AND LAST INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRETTY DIFFUSE BUT SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF STATE COLLEGE SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
FROM READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITHIN THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING OFF TO
THE ESE...BASICALLY CLEARING THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE HOW
MUCH CONVECTION MANAGES TO REFIRE BACK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A NEW SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING THROUGH
WISCONSIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A STRONG JET
ENTRANCE REGION NOSING INTO OHIO...WITH PA IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MESO ANAL SHOWS CAPES
REBOUNDING OVER OHIO INTO WESTERN PA SO WE HAVE FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND SOME DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN AS EVIDENCED BY PWATS WHICH ARE DECREASING...SO IT
WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN WHAT MOISTURE IS LEFT AS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL END BETWEEN 19-22Z
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN TIER ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FURTHER TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A REFRESHING...LOW PWAT AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WEAK GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AND MOIST GROUND FROM WEDNESDAY/S
RAIN WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG /WHICH WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY
DENSE/.
LG SCALE FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSING
MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST
STATES...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM ASSOC WITH -15C AT 500MB AND ANOMALOUS H7
TEMPS MAY INITIATE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER NRN-NERN SXNS ON
THU. GRIDDED SKY COVER MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE SET-
UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A BKN CU FIELD TO DVLP BY AFTN.
OTHERWISE..EXPECT A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
AND 5-10KT NNW WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND 500MB HEIGHT RISES SHOULD GRADUALLY REPLACE
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/CYC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION FRI-
SUN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER
GRT LKS/SERN CANADA SHOULD PROVIDE A STRING OF DRY WX WITH
PLEASANT DAYS AND RELATIVELY COOL NGTS. 05/12Z MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN SOUTH OF PA
ALONG A NW/SE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
FROM THE MID MO/LWR OH VLYS INTO THE SRN/CNTRL APPLCHNS AND SRN
MID-ATLC/SE STATES. THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCR MSTR/SLY WINDS CONSISTENT
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HP...WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING
ALL TERMINALS VFR BY THE LATE MORNING-MID DAY TIMEFRAME.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IF HIT BY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS.
AS EVENING APPROACHES..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FADE.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS
DRIER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF NON-EVENTFUL WEATHER
AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT... INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...THE LAST VESTIGES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
NC PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN DEEPER LAYER
NW FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE TRIGGERING ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS BY
18Z TO 21Z IN AND NEAR THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME ERN TN.
THIS COVERAGE MAY THEN BE MAINTAINED OR POSSIBLY EXPAND EWD ALONG
THE APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS THE NRN TIER THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MODEST THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER PART OF THE SPECTRUM
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE
WARMER SFC TEMPS AND RICH DEW POINTS GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED CAPE AND PERSISTENT CINH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SWD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY DRYING IN THE NRLY FLOW. EVENING POPS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOW FRONTAL
PROGRESS AND RELATIVELY WEAK ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
TO REACH VALUES SIMILAR TO RECENT WARM MORNINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA THU BRINGING IN MIX OF SOMEWHAT LOWER THETA/E AIR. THIS
WILL HELP OFFSET DOWNSLOPE WARMING A BIT AS THE FLOW BECOMES DEEPLY
NW/LY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL SRN ZONE AND A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NORTH. HIGHER LEVEL CU WILL DEVELOP...BUT
LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE HAD FOR MUCH VERTICAL ENHANCEMENT
NON/MTNS. THE SW NC MTNS SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION LATE THU AS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH A DIVING POCKET OF
S/W ENERGY. LOW END ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOL -SHRA/TSTMS THROUGH
DAYBREAK OVER THE SRN MTNS. A DEVELOPING WEDGE BNDRY WILL WORK INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOIST LLVL SE/LY FLOW SHOULD ACTIVATE AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE SFC HIGH CENTER POSITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
FRI AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST E/LY FLOW ACROSS THE WEDGE...ENUF
SO FOR HIGH END CHANCE -SHRA POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA...FAVORING
HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE MTNS. THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW ENUF
INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE DAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
END OR ISOL THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WEDGE WILL BECOME
LOCKED IN FRI NIGHT AS CONTINUED H85 SW/LY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
AN ELEV WARM FRONT. THUS...-SHRA POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
NORTH TO NEAR NORMAL SOUTH. MINS WILL LOCK IN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
A BIT BELOW WITH WIDE COVERAGE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN CANADA AND NW/LY
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATL / SE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A DOWNSTREAM
ULVL CONFLUENT ZONE WHICH IN TURN WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT AND
REINFORCING SFC HIGH OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND A WEDGE RIDGING
PATTERN INTO THE CWFA THROUGH SUN....PERHAPS REMAINING INTO MON.
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SIMILAR LLVL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER THE
LATEST CMC IS STILL HOLDING ONTO THE IDEA OF WEAK RIDGE WITH MORE
UNSTABLE S/LY FLOW. MORE CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS
AND TRENDS...WHICH AGREE WELL WITH WPC/S DEPICTION OF THE SFC BNDRY
REMAINING SOUTH BECOMING WAVY SUN/MON GENERATING PLENTY OF MOIST
FLOW OVER THE WEDGE.
PWATS BECOME RATHER HIGH SAT INTO SUN...WITH A BLENDED SOUNDING
VALUE OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEV INSTABILITY WITH
POCKETS OF ULVL ENERGY TRANSITING...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT
STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING GRADUALLY TO
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ERN ZONES WITHIN THE BEST LLVL LIFT SAT THROUGH
SUN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH BRINGING
IN A DEFINED H5 S/W SUN NIGHT PRODUCING A SFC REFLECTION STRONG ENUF
TO DISRUPT THE WEDGE PATTERN...THUS DRYING THINGS OUT AS THE SFC
CONVERGENT ZONE IS SHUNTED EAST. THIS IS GIVEN SOME WEIGHT IN THE
FCST WITH POPS DROPPING TO LOW END CHANCE MON...HOWEVER POPS WILL
RETURN TO HIGH END CHANCES TUE AS A PREFRONTAL TROF IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BY 8-10 DEGREES F SAT INTO MON...THEN WITH RETURNING S/LY
FLOW TUE MAXES SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE AIRFIELD ALONG WITH THE DRIVING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RAP PROFILES
STILL SHOW SOME WORRISOME MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC...AND WITH THE
RECENT SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH WILL ADVERTISE TEMPO MVFR VSBY IN
LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...WILL STAY THE COURSE OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THE AIRFIELD FREE OF LOW CLOUDS GIVEN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRATUS NEARBY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NRLY FLOW
EARLY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN TURNING NW
TO NRLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. ANY AFTN MTN
CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH
SUCH LIMITED CAPE IN MODEL PROFILES.
ELSEWHERE...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SET UP AT KAVL...BUT THIS
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE GIVEN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. AT LEAST TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FREE OF RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING AT THE
FOOTHILL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG AT KHKY ONCE THE MID
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. EXPECT LIGHT NW FLOW TODAY TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY
AT THE FOOTHILL SITES THIS AFTN BEFORE RETURNING TO NW TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL MENTION LATE DAY VCSH AT KAVL AND KHKY
CLOSER TO THE MTN TRIGGERING AND APPROACHING FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FROPA ON THU BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE LOW PRES TO
THE WEST ON FRI. A PERSISTENT MOIST CAD PATTERN WILL SET UP FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 67% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT... INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PULLING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN DEEP LAYER NW FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...WITH
AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA UNTIL THE TROUGH CLEARS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES WILL THEN GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE TRIGGERING ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS BY
18Z TO 21Z IN AND NEAR THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME ERN TN.
THIS COVERAGE MAY THEN BE MAINTAINED OR POSSIBLY EXPAND EWD ALONG
THE APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS THE NRN TIER THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MODEST THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER PART OF THE SPECTRUM
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE
WARMER SFC TEMPS AND RICH DEW POINTS GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED CAPE AND PERSISTENT CINH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SWD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY DRYING IN THE NRLY FLOW. EVENING POPS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOW FRONTAL
PROGRESS AND RELATIVELY WEAK ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
TO REACH VALUES SIMILAR TO RECENT WARM MORNINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA THU BRING IN MIX OF SOMEWHAT LOWER THETA/E AIR. THIS WILL
HELP OFFSET DOWNSLOPE WARMING A BIT AS FLOW BECOMES DEEPLY NW/LY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL SRN ZONE AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NORTH. HIGHER LEVEL CU WILL DEVELOP...BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY
WILL BE HAD FOR MUCH VERTICAL ENHANCEMENT NON/MTNS. THE SW NC MTNS
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION LATE AS UPSLOPE
FLOW COMBINES WITH A DIVING POCKET OF S/W ENERGY. LOW END ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOL
-SHRA/TSTMS THROUGH DAYBREAK OVER THE SRN MTNS. A DEVELOPING WEDGE
BNDRY WILL WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOIST LLVL SE/LY FLOW
SHOULD ACTIVATE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE
GA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SFC HIGH CENTER POSITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
FRI AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST E/LY FLOW ACROSS THE WEDGE...ENUF
SO FOR HIGH END CHANCE -SHRA POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA...FAVORING
HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE MTNS. THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW ENUF
INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE DAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
END OR ISOL THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WEDGE WILL BECOME
LOCKED IN FRI NIGHT AS CONTINUED H85 SW/LY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
AN ELEV WARM FRONT. THUS...-SHRA POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
NORTH TO NEAR NORMAL SOUTH. MINS WILL LOCK IN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
A BIT BELOW WITH WIDE COVERAGE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN CANADA AND NW/LY
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATL / SE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A DOWNSTREAM
ULVL CONFLUENT ZONE WHICH IN TURN WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT AND
REINFORCING SFC HIGH OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND A WEDGE RIDGING
PATTERN INTO THE CWFA THROUGH SUN....PERHAPS REMAINING INTO MON.
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SIMILAR LLVL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER THE
LATEST CMC IS STILL HOLDING ONTO THE IDEA OF WEAK RIDGE WITH MORE
UNSTABLE S/LY FLOW. MORE CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS
AND TRENDS...WHICH AGREE WELL WITH WPC/S DEPICTION OF THE SFC BNDRY
REMAINING SOUTH BECOMING WAVY SUN/MON GENERATING PLENTY OF MOIST
FLOW OVER THE WEDGE.
PWATS BECOME RATHER HIGH SAT INTO SUN...WITH A BLENDED SOUNDING
VALUE OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEV INSTABILITY WITH
POCKETS OF ULVL ENERGY TRANSITING...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT
STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING GRADUALLY TO
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ERN ZONES WITHIN THE BEST LLVL LIFT SAT THROUGH
SUN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH BRINGING
IN A DEFINED H5 S/W SUN NIGHT PRODUCING A SFC REFLECTION STRONG ENUF
TO DISRUPT THE WEDGE PATTERN...THUS DRYING THINGS OUT AS THE SFC
CONVERGENT ZONE IS SHUNTED EAST. THIS IS GIVEN SOME WEIGHT IN THE
FCST WITH POPS DROPPING TO LOW END CHANCE MON...HOWEVER POPS WILL
RETURN TO HIGH END CHANCES TUE AS A PREFRONTAL TROF IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BY 8-10 DEGREES F SAT INTO MON...THEN WITH RETURNING S/LY
FLOW TUE MAXES SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY EARLY THIS
MORNING UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST.
TOWERS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHTNING...SO A BRIEF
TEMPO FOR TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED THROUGH 07Z. RAP PROFILES HAVE SOME
WORRISOME NEAR SFC MOISTURE AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL STAY THE
COURSE OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THE
AIRFIELD FREE OF RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND EARLY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NRLY FLOW
EARLY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN TURNING NW
TO NRLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. ANY AFTN MTN
CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH
SUCH LIMITED CAPE IN MODEL PROFILES.
ELSEWHERE...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SET UP AT KAVL AT ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT THEY COULD BE VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LEAST TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FREE OF RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING AT THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT KHKY ONCE
THE MID CLOUDS DISSIPATE. EXPECT LIGHT NW FLOW TODAY TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AT THE FOOTHILL SITES THIS AFTN BEFORE RETURNING TO NW
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL MENTION LATE DAY VCSH AT
KAVL AND KHKY CLOSER TO THE MTN TRIGGERING AND APPROACHING FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FROPA ON THU BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE LOW PRES TO
THE WEST ON FRI. A PERSISTENT MOIST CAD PATTERN WILL SET UP FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 71% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
618 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ON NORTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPANDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND
NORTHWEST MN. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE AREAS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY SLIPS
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE MIGHT
BE SOME RESIDUAL SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE -NON MEASURABLE - LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LATE FORM TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 TO 65.
WITH COOL AND MOIST MID LEVELS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY...DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH
A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AGAIN...WITH SOME DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SUPPORT COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WEAK H5 FLOW EARLY IN THE PD WONT HELP FOCUS ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. ON FRI NIGHT...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALL WEST OF THE JAMES...WILL PROVIDE SOME IMPETUS FOR SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE ENTIRE
CWA.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE AT H5 AND H7 BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE CWA. POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE CAT AS A COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REALLY JUST WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA.
FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY OVERALL PATTERN TURNS TO RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST. THIS LOW WILL EJECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWVS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NW FLOW OVER THE
CWA BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF TSRA EVERY OTHER DAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER WAVE/TROF APPROACHES ON WED/THURS SO HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE THEN.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL
REMAIN NEAR VFR LEVELS AT HON/FSD FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
HOWEVER...HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT KSUX...WITH CEILINGS ALREADY AT MVFR
LEVELS...FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AND FOG FORMATION SEEMS
LIKELY BY DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS WILL ONLY SLOWING IMPROVE ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...APPEARS ANOTHER
WAVE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
706 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL NOT IMPACT OUR TAF
SITES AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AT KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND
NAM MODELS. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND MAINLY OCCUR IN THE
11-14Z TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIFT AND
SCATTER CLOUDS BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CU IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TOMORROW ALSO SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PW VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104 ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ONLY MIX OUT TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOMORROW IN THE 103 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THIS WEEKEND....A WEAK UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO THEN MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE FLOW
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL ALSO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AS WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS MOSTLY THE
SAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A DIFFERENT PATTERN
SHAPING UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE RETURN OF A RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A TROUGH
TO DROP INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RE-CENTER AND AMPLIFY ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE CANADIAN. THERE ARE QUESTIONS OF
HOW FAR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND ALSO THE BEST TIMING
FOR RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FORECASTING 850 TEMPS TO BE THE
HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR...RANGING FROM 22 TO 25 C. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SEE THE CENTURY
MARK. WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT IN NORTH
TEXAS.
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT
TYPE OF IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 101 75 99 75 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 100 72 100 72 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 72 100 72 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 73 99 73 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 77 / 0 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 99 74 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 72 98 72 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 98 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1237 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY...MUCH
LIKE WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY.
A 17Z AMDAR RAOB SHOWED THAT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE METROPLEX WERE
SLIGHTLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...IF AIR CAN WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S
WITHOUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXING OUT...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE METROPLEX.
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...DID NOT PLACE SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THE CHANCES OF ANY ISOLATED STORM IMPACTING
ONE OF THE TAFS SITES IS FAIRLY SMALL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS OR THUNDER IN THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING IS GOING
TO DEVELOP NEAR AREA TAF SITES.
ALTHOUGH THE AMDAR RAOB IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS IN
APPEARANCE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF
SURFACE BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND NORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE LACK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT
AN ISOLATED STORM FROM DEVELOPING LATER ON...BUT THIS MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF MOISTURE MIXING OUT MORE TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. IF MOISTURE IS IN THE
PROCESS OF MIXING OUT...THEN WE WILL END UP MORE CAPPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NO STORMS NEAR AREA AIRPORTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
THE MIDDAY UPDATE WILL CLEAN UP/DIMINISH SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CWA AND MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
HAVING A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM IN REGARDS TO STORMS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY IS NO
GREAT FORCING. TODAY...4KM WRF IS GOING FOR BROKE WITH A LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
TX...BUT IT IS WAY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WRF ARW
DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE METROPLEX...BUT AGAIN NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS
MORE SHALLOW TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE RAP FORECASTS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 450 J/KG CAPE...BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN ZONES AND DRIVES IT
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TTU WRF PLACES A SMALL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN ACTIVITY IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ADDED
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP SOME AREAS
UP TO LOW CHANCES TONIGHT IF THURSDAY LOOKS ANY WETTER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CLIMB SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN...AND HAVE NUMEROUS AREAS WITH TRIPLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 97 76 98 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 92 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 95 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 95 75 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 97 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 97 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 96 74 95 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 74 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 98 74 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1122 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO TODAY/S FORECAST WAS
TO EXPAND MENTION OF PRECIP INLAND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED PRECIP. NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS...HOWEVER...GIVEN LLVL WIND AND THERMAL
PROFILES /THUS WILL ONLY GO WITH 10 POPS/. ALSO EDITED CLOUD
COVER BASED OFF CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 98 77 97 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 102 78 103 82 103 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 100 76 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 91 80 94 81 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 102 76 102 76 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 99 77 98 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 91 80 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MIDDAY UPDATE WILL CLEAN UP/DIMINISH SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CWA AND MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
CONCERNS...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BE AWARE THAT THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL. 58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
HAVING A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM IN REGARDS TO STORMS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY IS NO
GREAT FORCING. TODAY...4KM WRF IS GOING FOR BROKE WITH A LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
TX...BUT IT IS WAY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WRF ARW
DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE METROPLEX...BUT AGAIN NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS
MORE SHALLOW TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE RAP FORECASTS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 450 J/KG CAPE...BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN ZONES AND DRIVES IT
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TTU WRF PLACES A SMALL CONNECTIVE
CLUSTER IN YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN ACTIVITY IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ADDED
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP SOME AREAS
UP TO LOW CHANCES TONIGHT IF THURSDAY LOOKS ANY WETTER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CLIMB SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN...AND HAVE NUMEROUS AREAS WITH TRIPLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 97 76 98 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 92 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 95 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 95 75 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 97 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 97 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 96 74 95 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 74 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 98 74 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
658 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BE AWARE THAT THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
HAVING A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM IN REGARDS TO STORMS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY IS NO
GREAT FORCING. TODAY...4KM WRF IS GOING FOR BROKE WITH A LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
TX...BUT IT IS WAY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WRF ARW
DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE METROPLEX...BUT AGAIN NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS
MORE SHALLOW TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE RAP FORECASTS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 450 J/KG CAPE...BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN ZONES AND DRIVES IT
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TTU WRF PLACES A SMALL CONNECTIVE
CLUSTER IN YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN ACTIVITY IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ADDED
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP SOME AREAS
UP TO LOW CHANCES TONIGHT IF THURSDAY LOOKS ANY WETTER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CLIMB SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN...AND HAVE NUMEROUS AREAS WITH TRIPLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 97 76 98 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 92 73 94 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 95 76 95 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 95 75 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 97 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 97 75 97 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 96 74 95 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 74 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 98 75 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
348 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HAVING A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM IN REGARDS TO STORMS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY IS NO
GREAT FORCING. TODAY...4KM WRF IS GOING FOR BROKE WITH A LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
TX...BUT IT IS WAY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WRF ARW
DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE METROPLEX...BUT AGAIN NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS
MORE SHALLOW TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE RAP FORECASTS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 450 J/KG CAPE...BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN ZONES AND DRIVES IT
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TTU WRF PLACES A SMALL CONNECTIVE
CLUSTER IN YOUNG/STEPHENS COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN ACTIVITY IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS.
I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ADDED
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP SOME AREAS
UP TO LOW CHANCES TONIGHT IF THURSDAY LOOKS ANY WETTER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CLIMB SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN...AND HAVE NUMEROUS AREAS WITH TRIPLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z BUT THE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION MAY PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY ALSO PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL TEMPO FOR 6SM BR AT KDFW AND KDAL
WHERE IT RAINED THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN
SURROUNDING SITES. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 97 76 98 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 92 73 94 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 95 76 95 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 95 75 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 97 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 97 75 97 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 96 74 95 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 74 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 98 75 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING TAPS
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...
AT 920 PM...A SMALL T-STORM COMPLEX WAS MOVING SE OUT OF NE NM INTO
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-LVL FLOW IS NOT VERY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR AS OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME DECAYING SHOWERS ARRIVE
IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PARMER...CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES
AROUND 1 TO 2 AM. FOR NOW 10 PERCENT POPS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
SUFFICE AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ABOVE APPROX. 7K FT IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SRLY SFC WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY AROUND DAYBREAK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WITH THE
LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW....STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE AREA THOUGH AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS SET UP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO GET GOING AND THERE REMAINS SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF
AN HONEST THUNDERSTORM TO GET GOING...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO GET GOING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A HOTTER WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES BECOME A BIT LESS OBSCURED. THUS...WE WILL CALL FOR HIGHS UP
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.
LONG TERM...
FAVORABLE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO NEW
MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STOPS SHORT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE
LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE ANY CONVECTION IMPACT ON WEST
TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLY A FEW FRONTS TO ENCROACH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 96 64 96 65 / 10 0 10 10 10
TULIA 65 97 67 98 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 97 66 96 66 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 66 98 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 70 99 70 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 65 97 66 97 66 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 66 99 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 70 100 72 101 72 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 68 101 70 100 69 / 0 0 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 73 100 72 / 0 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE SITES. THE EXCEPTION
WILL IS OVER KCXO AND KUTS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THE SEABREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME
ACTIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND 12Z. AS THE SEABREEZE WORKS
ITS WAY INLAND...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND SITES.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER SE COLORADO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KLFK TO KCOT. AT THE 850-700 LAYER...A RIBBON
OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NE TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA WITH A WEAK S/WV NOTED FROM ABOUT SAN LUIS PASS TO
COLLEGE STATION. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NE SONORA IN MEXICO. THE HIGH HAS
EXPANDED SINCE LAST EVENING AND NOW EXTENDS INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
GFS MASS FIELDS STILL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOONS VALUE OF
AROUND 1.80 INCHES. THE RAP AND 4KM NCEP WRF ARE TRENDING DRIER
AND SUPPORT THE NAM/ECMWF. STILL FEEL SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE ISOLATED THAN
TODAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE WANING QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WILL
ISSUE NEW ZONES TO CLEAN UP EVENING WORDING...REMOVE POPS ETC...
43
CLIMATE...
SOME INTERESTING CLIMATE STATS TO BANTER ABOUT THIS EVENING.
COLLEGE STATION HAS RECORDED ONLY 11 DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 95 DEGREES IN 2014. TYPICALLY...COLLEGE STATION HAS RECORDED
30 SUCH DAYS BY AUGUST 5TH (1981-2010). HOUSTON HAS ONLY RECORDED
9 DAYS WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 95 DEGREES BUT TYPICALLY WOULD HAVE
TALLIED 26 SUCH DAYS BY THE 5TH.
SINCE THE SUMMER HAS BEEN COOL BY TEXAS STANDARDS...THOUGHT IT
MIGHT BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MANY DAYS HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL
SINCE JUNE 1ST. COLLEGE STATION HAS RECORDED 30 DAYS OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 10 DAYS OF NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE JUNE
1ST OR 40 OUT OF 66 DAYS WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE FROM THE SUMMER OF 2011. HOUSTON RECORDED 29
DAYS BELOW NORMAL AND 14 DAYS AT NORMAL OR 43 OUT OF 66 DAYS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL.
ONE LAST TIDBIT...COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON HAVE YET TO RECORD A
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOUSTON RECORDED IT`S
LAST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD ON NOVEMBER 17 2013 AND COLLEGE
STATION HAS NOT RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD SINCE JULY 13
2013 - OVER A YEAR AGO. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 77 96 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 95 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROAHCING OUR REGION FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...REACHING
THE GULF STATES BY LATE THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HRRR AND RNK WRK-
ARW MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING DO A GOOD JOB THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE PLACE STRONG WEIGHT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE. THAT REGION WILL PRIMARILY BE
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG AND ALSO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM
TONIGHT. THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECT TO
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE NIGHT
OF SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOWER...MORE
NUMEROUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE
WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL HELP RE-
ESTABLISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT AND BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OH/PA WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS AXIS NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH IT WILL COME
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. WHILE NOT FORECAST...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT TO WHERE THE
BEST REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD LOOK FAMILIAR TO WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED THE END OF LAST WEEK WITH TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...FAVORING A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES...AND
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
THE ONLY THING THAT HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH TIME. TO START THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A PATTERN THAT GENERALLY
FEATURES COOL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE COOL CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE SHOWERS.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WEDGE OF STABLE AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MTNS WILL PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMINESS HERE...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF I77 WHERE MORE SUN AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING HIGH CHC THREAT FOR PRECIP RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN EASTERLY WIND...
WENT WELL BELOW CLIMO. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY WE WILL BE LUCKY TO TOUCH 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COOL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE SAME NEARLY
STATIONARY...WAVY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING
SW...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH TIME...RESULTING
IN A UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
THUNDER BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK...THE RETURN OF SOME
SUN PROVIDING INSTABILITY TO FEED DEEPER CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS LOW WAS SITUATED
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND EAST OF THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE
ITS TRAILING KY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. WE
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TO HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. OTHER
THAN FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL START ENTERING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SAVE MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG. ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LIFTED UPSLOPE IN THE WEST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 12-13Z/8-9AM
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NORTH AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROAHCING OUR REGION FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...REACHING
THE GULF STATES BY LATE THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE REGION...BUT APPROACHING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...AND THEN THE FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN VIRGINIA...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. HRRR AND RNK WRF-ARW GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS IN NARROWING DOWN THE PREFERRED
AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PLACE A GOOD BIT OF WEIGHT FOR ITS PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS INTO
THE EVENING. AS EXPECTED...THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT IN KY...AND ALSO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
FRINGES NEAREST THE ONGOING SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY TWO OR THREE DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.
AS OF 945 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME...MOST JUST OUTSIDE THE
NORTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT STARTING PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BEFORE THAT TIME...BUT MOST WILL
FORM STARTING AROUND 200 PM AND ONWARD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST OUR OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 2AM THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 8AM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE 500 MB TROF DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY 12Z
THURSDAY THE TROF AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM DELAWARE TO MISSOURI. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS DRIER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS HAVE THIS DRYING PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE MORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE BETTER THE CONVERGENCE WILL BE.
IF WINDS STAY WEST TO NORTHWEST...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS.
THE REGION DOES GET INTO BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR FORCING. SO HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
AD WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SEASONAL WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LEANED
TOWARDS THE MILD ADJMAV FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. IN GENERAL...LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE ADJMAV WITH VALUES FROM LOWER 70S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE MID 60S.
1021MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND A WEDGE RIDGING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASED POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. WENT WITH HPCGUIDE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY WAVY FRONT SOUTH OF US ALONG
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND SFC LOWS RIDING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING SW...AND WITH
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL AT NIGHT. STILL OVERALL LOOKS LIKE OFF AND ON
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF US WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS GENERALLY HIGHER IN
THE DAYTIME AND OVER THE SRN CWA. HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE SC COAST WHILE
THE SFC HIGH BUILD SE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING...BUT GIVEN STILL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WILL BE
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN FOR BOTH MON-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS LOW WAS SITUATED
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND EAST OF THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE
ITS TRAILING KY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. WE
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TO HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. OTHER
THAN FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL START ENTERING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SAVE MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG. ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LIFTED UPSLOPE IN THE WEST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 12-13Z/8-9AM
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NORTH AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
102 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MAINE TO DELAWARE TO NEW JERSEY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...REACHING THE GULF STATES BY LATE THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE REGION...BUT APPROACHING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...AND THEN THE FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN VIRGINIA...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. HRRR AND RNK WRF-ARW GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS IN NARROWING DOWN THE PREFERRED
AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PLACE A GOOD BIT OF WEIGHT FOR ITS PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS INTO
THE EVENING. AS EXPECTED...THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT IN KY...AND ALSO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
FRINGES NEAREST THE ONGOING SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY TWO OR THREE DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.
AS OF 945 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME...MOST JUST OUTSIDE THE
NORTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT STARTING PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BEFORE THAT TIME...BUT MOST WILL
FORM STARTING AROUND 200 PM AND ONWARD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST OUR OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 2AM THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 8AM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE 500 MB TROF DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY 12Z
THURSDAY THE TROF AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM DELAWARE TO MISSOURI. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS DRIER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS HAVE THIS DRYING PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE MORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE BETTER THE CONVERGENCE WILL BE.
IF WINDS STAY WEST TO NORTHWEST...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS.
THE REGION DOES GET INTO BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR FORCING. SO HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
AD WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SEASONAL WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LEANED
TOWARDS THE MILD ADJMAV FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. IN GENERAL...LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE ADJMAV WITH VALUES FROM LOWER 70S IN THE
WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE MID 60S.
1021MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND A WEDGE RIDGING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASED POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. WENT WITH HPCGUIDE MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY WAVY FRONT SOUTH OF US ALONG
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND SFC LOWS RIDING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING SW...AND WITH
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL AT NIGHT. STILL OVERALL LOOKS LIKE OFF AND ON
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF US WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS GENERALLY HIGHER IN
THE DAYTIME AND OVER THE SRN CWA. HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE SC COAST WHILE
THE SFC HIGH BUILD SE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING...BUT GIVEN STILL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WILL BE
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN FOR BOTH MON-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING BY 14Z/10AM.
THEN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY.
A SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN IN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...BUT COVERAGE STILL NOT GREAT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER... BUT NOT LIKELY
EXCEEDING 12 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP LIFT IT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS A GENEROUS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION...THESE CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
NON-DISCREET FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET WELL INTO THE
LONG TERM SO MAIN FOCUS IS ANY RAIN CHANCES ALONG MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TIERS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK.
AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW TO
THE EAST...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EMBEDDED IN WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH SLOW EVOLVEMENT
IN ANY PATTERN CHANGES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
FOCUSED...SOUTH OF AREA. DRIER AIR KEEPING RAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF
AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH/EAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN SHORT TERM MODELS BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THINGS MOST
ACTIVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN PERSISTENCE...HAVE LOWERED
OVERALL RAIN THREAT ALONG SOUTHWEST SERVICE AREA BORDER IN ALIGNMENT
WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES AND CONTINUED CUT BACK IN
TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST IN PLACE.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND MOISTURE REBOUND EXPECTED THIS EVENING...COULD
SEE MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BETWEEN THICKER CLOUD COVER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SIMILAR SETUP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RAIN THREAT PRIMARILY
TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF SERVICE AREA. LARGER QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OCCASIONALLY TRYING TO DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED
UPPER LOW AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF WESTERN STATES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE STEADY MODEL KEEPING A BROAD RIDGE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCKED OVER GREAT LAKES UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY WHEN
WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA TRY TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT IN. EVEN AS THAT
HAPPENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW ACTIVE FRONT
WILL BE WITH SUCH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN
THREATS REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND MANY AREAS COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THAT POINT.
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH WITH ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD
TO WARM AIR/MOISTURE RETURN AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A FOG THREAT...SPECIFICALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...WITH A GREATER IMPACT AT KLSE AS A RESULT.
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPARK A REGION OF FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS IA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION WILL FILTER ACROSS
THE AREA. HOW THICK AND FAR DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE POTENTIAL CIGS
WILL/COULD GET WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG. THE THICKER-LOWER
THE CLOUDS...THE LESS THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO THIS LIGHT WIND LAYER EXTENDING UPWARDS OF 4K FT THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. SOME STRONGER WINDS SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
SFC BEFORE 12Z AT KLSE PER THE RAP AND NAM...WITH THE RAP BRINGING
THEM IN MORE QUICKLY. NORMALLY THIS IS A DETERRENT...BUT IF STRONG
ENOUGH INVERSION ALREADY IN PLACE...SUB 1SM VSBYS WOULD STILL BE
FAVORED. OVERCOMING THE T/TD SPREAD WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS AND LOWER
TDS. THE KLSE SPREAD AT 23Z WAS 24 F.
MVFR VSBYS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR KRST. WILL KEEP THE MVFR TRENDS
AT KLSE FOR NOW...BUT ADD SOME BCFG TO HINT AT THICKER FOG NEARBY.
IF TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AND IF T/TD SPREAD CRASHES
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THE 1/4SM THREAT WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A
GENERAL TROUGH ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. GOOD PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FUELING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND/NEB...INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA. CLOSER IN...THE ARX FORECAST AREA WAS MOSTLY
CLEAR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH WEAK TO CALM SURFACE WIND. THIS
WAS ALLOWING SOME FOG TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI AND IN
THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IA. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER JUST NIPPING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA BY NOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRIER AIR OUTFLOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES HIGH LOOKS TO HALT ANY FARTHER NORTHEAST PUSH OF
THIS SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY. IN FACT...APPEARS SOME OF
THIS RAIN MAY RETREAT FARTHER SOUTHWEST AN MAYBE ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH CLOUD COVER DOMINATING WEST OF THE RIVER. HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS COMING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. NAM STILL SHOWING
STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 MAINLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE WAVE COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM AND HAS WEAKER
FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS IA/IL. SINCE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
ODD MODEL OUT...RAISED POPS TO HONOR MORE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MORE
NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. BTW...NOT MUCH CAPE INVOLVED WITH THIS WAVE...SO
TAPERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED MENTION GIVEN FORCING SIGNAL.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION/RAIN POTENTIAL OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT IS ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVEL OUTFLOW
FROM GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW SOME LINGERING
DEFORMATION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. CARRIED LOWER-END POPS TO COVER THIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE
DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT LINGERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS IOWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VALLEY FOG
COULD DEVELOP AT KLSE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON IF A CLOUD DECK AT 5
KFT MOVES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS VALLEY FOG WOULD BE UNLIKELY. HAVE STARTED
TRENDING THE KLSE TAF TOWARD VALLEY FOG WITH THIS CLOUD DECK
LOOKING SUSPECT IN THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A VERY CLOSE EYE ON CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. BR IS EXPECTED AT KRST
LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 5SM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
612 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A
GENERAL TROUGH ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. GOOD PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FUELING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND/NEB...INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA. CLOSER IN...THE ARX FORECAST AREA WAS MOSTLY
CLEAR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH WEAK TO CALM SURFACE WIND. THIS
WAS ALLOWING SOME FOG TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI AND IN
THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IA. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER JUST NIPPING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA BY NOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRIER AIR OUTFLOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES HIGH LOOKS TO HALT ANY FARTHER NORTHEAST PUSH OF
THIS SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY. IN FACT...APPEARS SOME OF
THIS RAIN MAY RETREAT FARTHER SOUTHWEST AN MAYBE ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH CLOUD COVER DOMINATING WEST OF THE RIVER. HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS COMING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. NAM STILL SHOWING
STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 MAINLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE WAVE COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM AND HAS WEAKER
FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS IA/IL. SINCE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
ODD MODEL OUT...RAISED POPS TO HONOR MORE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MORE
NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. BTW...NOT MUCH CAPE INVOLVED WITH THIS WAVE...SO
TAPERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED MENTION GIVEN FORCING SIGNAL.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION/RAIN POTENTIAL OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT IS ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVEL OUTFLOW
FROM GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW SOME LINGERING
DEFORMATION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. CARRIED LOWER-END POPS TO COVER THIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE
DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT LINGERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
VALLEY FOG WAS ABLE TO FORM BEFORE THE LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THE FOG HAS
REMAINED AND EXPECT IT WILL BE MID MORNING BEFORE THIS SHOWS ITS
NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE A DRY EAST FLOW THAT
WILL KEEP THE RAIN WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES WITH JUST SOME HIGH
VFR CEILINGS. THE 06.00Z NAM WAS SUGGESTING A BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BUT THE
06.06Z NAM NOW SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA WITH LITTLE
THREAT FOR ANY RAIN. THERE COULD STILL BE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING
DEVELOP FROM THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND WILL SHOW THIS AT KRST WHICH
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FORCING THAN KLSE. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO PRECLUDE THE
FORMATION OF ANY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A
GENERAL TROUGH ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. GOOD PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FUELING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND/NEB...INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA. CLOSER IN...THE ARX FORECAST AREA WAS MOSTLY
CLEAR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH WEAK TO CALM SURFACE WIND. THIS
WAS ALLOWING SOME FOG TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI AND IN
THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IA. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER JUST NIPPING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA BY NOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRIER AIR OUTFLOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES HIGH LOOKS TO HALT ANY FARTHER NORTHEAST PUSH OF
THIS SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY. IN FACT...APPEARS SOME OF
THIS RAIN MAY RETREAT FARTHER SOUTHWEST AN MAYBE ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH CLOUD COVER DOMINATING WEST OF THE RIVER. HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS COMING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. NAM STILL SHOWING
STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 MAINLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE WAVE COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM AND HAS WEAKER
FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS IA/IL. SINCE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
ODD MODEL OUT...RAISED POPS TO HONOR MORE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MORE
NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. BTW...NOT MUCH CAPE INVOLVED WITH THIS WAVE...SO
TAPERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED MENTION GIVEN FORCING SIGNAL.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION/RAIN POTENTIAL OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT IS ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVEL OUTFLOW
FROM GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW SOME LINGERING
DEFORMATION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. CARRIED LOWER-END POPS TO COVER THIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE
DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT LINGERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z FOR KLSE WAS 4 DEGREES
WITH LIGHT/CALM SFC WINDS AND A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS - UPWARDS OF 4K FT. ALL VERY FAVORABLE FOR 1/4SM FOG AT
KLSE. THE ONE HOLD BACK IS THE PERSIST FEED OF VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF THIS WOULD
THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD 12Z...IT COULD SERVE AS
ENOUGH OF AN INHIBITOR TO DETER A DROP BELOW 1-2SM. IF ITS MORE
SKC/SKC THOUGH...CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARD AN HOUR...MAYBE TWO OF
1/4SM. LEANING TOWARD ADDING 1/4SM TEMPO IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. FOR KRST...THE CLOUDS COULD ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE MVFR
VSBY POTENTIAL...BUT WITH HOLD WITH A FEW HOURS FOR NOW.
AFTER THIS MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1108 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO CLEAR POPS OUT OF MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST INTO KANSAS. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST INTO
KANSAS. WEAKER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL IMPACTING
PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE
NIGHT. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EXPIRED THE WATCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AT 7 PM. EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 8
PM. A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLOODING. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AREAS ACROSS EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY INTO BACA COUNTIES...ARE
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS OVER
BACA COUNTY HAVE SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR...AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING...FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PUEBLO AREA. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONTINUED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
KCOS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 10Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
KALS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY IMPACT KALS. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KPUB FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
326 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
A LARGELY QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH HEAT THE ONE TRADEMARK OF AUGUST THAT IS MISSING.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOW WELL DEFINED CLOSED
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX NEAR STL.
SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THIS CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO
FLIRT WITH OUR SOUTHERN MOST CWA WITH THIS TREND LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
LIKELY RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND GRADUALLY MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
POLAR FRONT JET IS IN ITS SEASONABLY FAVORED POSITION WELL TO OUR
NORTH OVER CANADA WITH WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL JET PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
WEAKER SHORT WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE
SUCH WAVE OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS
WAVE...THOUGH CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORS WAS TO HOLD OFF ON HITTING
THESE CHANCES TOO HARD GIVEN THE LACK OF QPF IN THE ECMWF/GFS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST NORTHERN STREAM JET TO GROW
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/MON NIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP...WITH A
TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUES-THURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S...THOUGH ANY DAY WITH MORE PROMINENT
CLOUD COVER COULD FEATURE MORE MID-UPPER 70S (LIKE OUR SOUTHERN CWA
TODAY).DEEPENING TROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MORE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE
70S. IT LOOKS LIKE NEARLY EVERY ONE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FEATURE
WEAK SYNOPTIC EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE
BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS 5-8F COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT TODAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10 KT OR SO TODAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LAKE MICHIGAN
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING WHILE MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
218 AM CDT
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS LOOKING TO
BE LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY FAR SOUTH...AND FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE WAS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BELOW 15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE...THOUGH THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO AROUND 15
KT OR PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE MOST INFLUENCE ON WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF 15-20 OR 25 KT NORTHERLIES
LASTING FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
An upper level low pressure trough is centered over southern
Illinois early this morning. Quite moist conditions with
precipitable water values near 2 inches associated with the low
center. Primarily light showers are wrapping around the low into
central Illinois with some moderate to heavy showers over southern
Illinois. The system is progged to continue to move eastward today
with shortwave ridging moving into Illinois today...which will
result in subsident motion eventually diminishing shower activity.
With very limited instability over central Illinois, thunderstorm
activity has been non-existent the past several hours over central
Illinois and forecast keeps isolated thunder limited to southeast
Illinois today where there will be enough instability to produce
some. Highs primarily in the 70s are expected given the cool air
mass at low levels and extensive cloud cover. For Friday night,
another weak shortwave moves across the region, and could result in
a few more lingering showers overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Frontal boundary will remain draped from Kentucky to northern
Arkansas on Saturday. As a weak upper-level wave travels along the
boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the Ohio River Valley. Given proximity to boundary, have opted to
carry slight chance PoPs along/south of I-70, with dry weather
elsewhere around the area. Front will sag a bit further south on
Sunday, as high pressure over the Upper Midwest builds southward.
End result will be a partly sunny and dry day with highs reaching
the lower to middle 80s. After that, a series of upper waves is
expected to drop out of Canada, re-establishing the persistent upper
trough over the Great Lakes by the middle and end of next week.
First wave and associated cold front will arrive on Monday, with
sufficient forcing and moisture to warrant low chance PoPs for
showers/thunder. Second wave will arrive on Tuesday: however,
forcing will be weaker and best moisture will be shunted well to the
east across Indiana/Kentucky. ECMWF is largely dry with this
feature, while GFS continues scattered precip. Will only carry a
slight chance PoP for Tuesday at this time, but think it will
probably be removed entirely if current trends continue. Once the
second wave passes, high pressure will introduce cooler and less
humid conditions for next Wednesday/Thursday, with afternoon highs
in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s both days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A few adjustments for these TAFs as the low is progged to move
remain south of most of the ILX terminals as it moves to the east
tomorrow. Very slow moving low keeping low cigs and rain over much
of the area. Some redevelopment previously in the models is
starting to fade, HRRR and NAM showing very little in the way of
redevelopment for the morning hours before 18z. Keeping rain
predominant through the early morning and the day in SPI and DEC,
and some through the day for CMI, but reducing for PIA and BMI.
VCTS for SPI and DEC closer to the low center, and lingering the
MVFR clouds a little longer. Forecast may be pessimistic towards
the end of the forecast regarding clearing, but with timing
confidence low in the slow moving and weakening system, not going
to clear it out just yet.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
236 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
BROAD SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 24 HOURS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN A
DRIVER IN KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TRYING TO LIFT NORTH...HOWEVER THE MUCH DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW IS ERODING THE LEADING EDGE. OVERNIGHT SKIES SHUD
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PAINT SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRENGTH OF THE ANTI-CYCLONIC EXPECT WHATEVER
PRECIP THAT CAN LIFT NORTH WILL BE LIGHT AND PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY HOLD AROUND 60 TO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BROAD SFC RIDGE APPEARS TO CONTINUE AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THRU
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE PRECIP SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE SLIDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI/SAT...HOWEVER EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 70S FRI/SAT...NEARING THE LOW 80S
SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO PROG FURTHER CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A RIDGE WEST/EAST RESULTING
IN A TROUGH GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OPER SOLUTIONS
HAVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MON/TUE
WITH ANOTHER LESS POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING
EAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST REGION MON NGT/TUE. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW CHC POPS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TREND DRY
GIVEN A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AND A LARGER SFC RIDGE ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY TREND BACK
TOWARDS SUB-SEASONAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT TODAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10 KT OR SO TODAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LAKE MICHIGAN
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING WHILE MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CDT
THE PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH EAST 10-20 KT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MAY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE REACH INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN VARY BETWEEN EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY SEE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THE SOUTH HALF SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE MODEL HAS A STRONGER LOW MOVING OVER
THE LAKE WHILE ANOTHER HAS A WEAK LOW PASSING JUST TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONGER NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT PSBL OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN NORTH THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Low pressure center just southwest of ILX, and main areas of rain
have shifted just a bit east, though scattered rain showers are
anticipated in the southern half through the evening and overnight
hours. Models hinting at another wave of showers after midnight
rotating around the low, though timing differs from one model to
the next. Some minor updates for near steady temp trends and the
shifting pop...but all in all the forecast is going well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Upper low over northeast Missouri this afternoon, with a
corresponding surface low a little further south near Columbia. This
is progged to move very little over the next 24 hours, resulting in
periods of showers and scattered storms moving through the forecast
area. Locations north of I-74 have struggled to see any rain this
today with some drier air, and high-resolution models suggest this
may be the case through most of the evening as well. Further
southwest, main tropical surge oriented along the Illinois/Missouri
border with precipitable water values close to 2 inches per latest
SPC mesoanalysis. That area has already seen 2 to 5 inches of rain.
Higher PWAT values shift a bit further northeast with time, but
heavier rain axis tonight will be more into areas southeast of I-72
with 1/2 to 1 inch common.
On Friday, the low will finally start to push southeast as a weak
upper wave currently in northern Utah pushes into Nebraska. Much of
the precipitation in our area will be in the morning hours, before
diminishing from north to south in the afternoon. Have kept highs in
the mid to upper 70s as cloud cover should remain extensive through
the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
The influence of the slow moving low pressure system should begin to
wane on Friday night, as the low moves just east of Illinois and
drier air wraps into Illinois behind the low. The proximity of the
low and trailing surface trough to the west of the low could allow
for isolated showers to linger Friday evening south of I-72. Rain
chances should diminish even further on Saturday to areas southeast
of I-70. There is a wide spread in the model solutions for the
Friday night and Saturday time frame, with the GFS and NAM being
more aggressive with precip and the ECMWF and Canadian being drier.
Therefore we continued to only acknowledged rain with slight chance
PoPs during that time.
The remainder of the weekend should be dry as the low pressure
trough sags farther south and east of Illinois, allowing a deeper
layer of dry air to advect into the area. The upper level flow will
be quasi-zonal or slightly northwest, which can allow for weak
shortwaves to progress into IL. The mostly likely scenario in the
extended guidance appears to be for any wave to be moisture starved
and not have enough forcing to generate precipitation.
The next window of opportunity for rain looks to be on Monday as a
cold front arrives from the NW. The better combination of
instability and moisture appears to be southeast of a line from
Shelbyville to Champaign, so we went with chance PoPs there and
slight chances in the remainder of the KILX CWA.
The ECMWF enhances an upper trough across the western Great Lakes
and into Illinois on Tuesday, while the GFS and Canadian keep the
center of the upper low farther north, along with the better precip
chances. We acknowledged the ECMWF with slight chance PoPs into
Tuesday for now. Dry conditions should return for Wed and Thurs as
upper level ridging develops behind the departing trough.
High temperatures are still expected to be on a very slow warming
trend from Friday through Tuesday as readings climb a degree or so
each day in general. Highs on Friday will remain around 80, with
mid-80s expected by Tuesday and Wednesday. A slight cooling trend is
forecast for Thursday, but only down to around 80 in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A few adjustments for these TAFs as the low is progged to move
remain south of most of the ILX terminals as it moves to the east
tomorrow. Very slow moving low keeping low cigs and rain over much
of the area. Some redevelopment previously in the models is
starting to fade, HRRR and NAM showing very little in the way of
redevelopment for the morning hours before 18z. Keeping rain
predominant through the early morning and the day in SPI and DEC,
and some through the day for CMI, but reducing for PIA and BMI.
VCTS for SPI and DEC closer to the low center, and lingering the
MVFR clouds a little longer. Forecast may be pessimistic towards
the end of the forecast regarding clearing, but with timing
confidence low in the slow moving and weakening system, not going
to clear it out just yet.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
CEILINGS THAT ARE MARKEDLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
IOWA THAN ACROSS THE WEST DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED BUT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHER
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL THAN ACROSS THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WEST AND HIGHER INSTABILITY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED/EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DID
USE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORDING BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF
THE HOPWRF AND THE HRRR WERE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH LESS PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE HRRR HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SO I LEANED MORE TOWARDS IT.
TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL TODAY THOUGH I DID NUDGE HIGHS A BIT WARMER
EAST WHERE I FELT THERE WOULD BE LESS OR HIGHER CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING BUT SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP PCPN
DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SOME
CONVECTION WILL PRESS INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME...SO
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF AXIS
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO LINGER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON MONDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS EASTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY KEEPS MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AT 03Z WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS IOWA. SOME DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO
CENTRAL IOWA FROM THE EAST BASED ON THE SURFACE TRAJECTORIES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA NORTH OF 850 MB LOW PARKED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS RESULT IN
THE LACK OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS. EXPECT ST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE MIXES
BY 18Z FRIDAY AND RAISED THE CEILINGS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
CONTINUED COMPLICATED FORECAST DUE TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KGLD EARLY THEN COULD HAVE
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE OVER FROM THEM WEST. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
KMCK WILL GET CLOSE TO KMCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO PUT VCTS IN
THERE. MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.
DUE TO NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
CONTINUED COMPLICATED FORECAST DUE TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KGLD EARLY THEN COULD HAVE
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE OVER FROM THEM WEST. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
KMCK WILL GET CLOSE TO KMCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO PUT VCTS IN
THERE. MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.
DUE TO NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A TROUGH IS MOVING ON SHORE TODAY ON THE WESTERN COAST WITH MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
COMPLEX OF STORMS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) CURRENTLY OVER NW KS
CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KS.
THIS COMPLEX AND A VERY POTENT MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS HAS LED TO
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS. BIG QUESTION IS
HOW FAR EAST THE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI.
STEERING VECTORS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE SRN END OF THE NW KS COMPLEX...WITH PROPAGATION SE TOWARDS
KDDC. BUT THE MAIN MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS TAKE THE WHOLE MCS
STRAIGHT EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE MCS
OVER CENTRAL KS AND FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. SO THINK THE
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...REACHING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO THINK AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL SEE SOME OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION FROM
THE MONSOONAL FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 06-10Z. SO
WILL BEEF UP POPS SOME IN CENTRAL KS...AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MAIN SYSTEMS BOTH THE CURRENT HIGH AND PROGRESSING TROUGH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SITUATED AND EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THESE RIPPLES ARE OFFSET
AND ALMOST DOING THEIR OWN THING. A MESSY PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES GIVEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REACHING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CHANCES MAINLY REACHING
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WIDER AREA OF EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR GIVEN ITS DECENT FORECAST SUCCESS WITH THE
ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT...WAS UTILIZED FOR ASSISTANCE IN
ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL STUFF WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LESS SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY THAN LAST NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE SHEAR AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS WERE ALTERED AND WILL VERY WELL BE TWEAKED
WITH EACH FORECAST GIVEN THE ATTEMPTS OF THE MODELS TO GET A
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JUANITA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A RIDGE IS SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
RESPECTIVE FEATURES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING AN IMPACT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL AND RESPECTIVE RUN THAT ONE WOULD LIKE TO CONSIDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.
JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
EXPECT SOME DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN WRN KS
CURRENTLY MOVES EAST INTO KRSL AND KGBD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS
WITH THIS LINE TO EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KGBD
AND POSSIBLY KHUT...BUT THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX WILL BE DUE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TSRA
ACROSS THE KRSL/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY THE KSLN/KICT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.
SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KHUT INITIALLY WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KRSL/KHUT FOR SOME POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS. THINK
THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM KSLN TO
NEAR KICT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AT LEAST
12-14Z/FRI.
NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN INTACT AS IT SHIFTS
EAST FOR FRI MORNING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KCNU.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SOME MORNING MVFR VSBY CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST
KS NEAR KCNU...WITH 3-5SM BR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-14Z/FRI. COULD ALSO
SEE AN IFR CLOUD DECK MOVE INTO KCNU FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING
AS WELL.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 92 69 91 / 40 20 30 40
HUTCHINSON 68 91 68 90 / 40 20 40 40
NEWTON 68 90 68 88 / 40 20 40 40
ELDORADO 68 90 70 89 / 40 30 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 92 70 92 / 40 30 30 40
RUSSELL 67 89 67 86 / 50 20 40 40
GREAT BEND 67 89 67 88 / 50 20 40 40
SALINA 67 91 70 87 / 40 20 50 40
MCPHERSON 67 90 68 89 / 40 20 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 70 91 69 91 / 30 30 30 40
CHANUTE 68 90 68 89 / 30 30 30 50
IOLA 68 89 68 88 / 30 30 30 50
PARSONS-KPPF 69 91 68 90 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WENT IN AND FINE TUNED THE POPS AND
WEATHER GRIDS ONCE MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER POSSIBLE ONSET OF
PRECIP. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS SHIFT LEFT OTHER PARAMETERS IN GOOD SHAPE.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN FORECAST. CURRENT CHANGES WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW SET OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...BUT
FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4Z ZONE PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE POPS DOWN TO 15 PERCENT.
ALSO NUDGED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF
ZONES FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THE RETREAT FROM
KENTUCKY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND ITS WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...SOME CLEAR PATCHES
THROUGH MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL SHORTLY BE FILLED IN BY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. ON RADAR...THE
NEAREST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A STEADY APPROACH TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE CWA DRY
THROUGH 06Z...BUT THEN BRINGS CONVECTION INTO OUR DOMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE PRESERVED THE HIGHER POPS
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHILE TAPERING THEM BACK THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE BACKING OFF THEIR EARLIER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...FALLING A FEW DEGREES WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS READINGS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION. ASIDE FROM THE POP AND WX
ADJUSTMENTS...ADDED A BIT MORE FOG LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZONE ISSUANCE TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THERE IS A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. AS THIS LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST...IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START MOVING INTO WAYNE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST ENGULFING ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL WINDOW ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET STRONG...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM WHERE THE FRONT
BECOMES STALLED OVER THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HYDROLOGICAL WITH 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...HAVE HELD OFF PUTTING
OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE THE RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36
HOUR PERIOD AND IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE. THERE WILL LIKELY TO SOME
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER IN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WITH DITCHES...STREAMS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO LAY DOWN
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AS A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A
DISTURBANCE IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE AMPLIFIED APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING OVER AND THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS KEEPS A PERMANENT BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY..ESSENTIALLY
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
ESPECIALLY CONCERNING...IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THEN EXTENDED WHERE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PWATS IN THE 1.70
TO 1.90 RANGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE
MAY BE SOME CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ALL BLEND
MODEL DOES AGREE WITH THIS SITUATION AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS
GIVEN FOR THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK...BESIDES A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND EURO LIE WITH THE GFS BEING TOO STRONG
WITH THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEK WITH THE EURO
MAINTAINING THE SUMMER LIKE WEAK FLOW A BIT LONGER. THOUGH
DIFFERENCES SEEM MINOR...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIE WITH THE WEEKEND
AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
$$
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO KSME AND NEARING KLOZ. PRECIP IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO DROP TO THE MVFR LEVEL
BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DEEP VALLEY
OR RAIN INDUCED FOG DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE PRECIP MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
USED THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO ESTIMATE
WHEN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO KLOZ...KJKL...AND KSME. GIVEN THE
BROKENNESS OF THE LEADING EDGE...STARTED OFF WITH VCSH AT THESE
SITES...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
INTRODUCED THUNDER BACK INTO FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS WELL WITH THE
INCREASE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. USED A BEST GUESS FOR OVERALL CIG
AND VIS IMPACTS...THOUGH TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE UP AND
DOWN AS STORMS PASS OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT IN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT.
AT 330 AM...WSR-88D WAS INDICATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE WITH THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE 750-800 MB LAYER.
THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH DAWN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...CALLING INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE
CURRENT EXPANSION OF OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINGS START TO DIE OUT. THE 06Z HRRR IS LARGELY DRY FROM
SUNRISE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING.
THE NMM AND ARW WRF MODELS DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AM NOT YET READY TO BITE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CHANGE MY MIND.
ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF
THIS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN THAT PROMOTES SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PULSE TYPE STORMS...FELT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND HAVE THUS REDUCED POPS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 0-6 KM OF 20-30 KTS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LASTING
CONVECTION AND THE STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH MAKING IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
COVER MUCH REAL ESTATE. HOWEVER...THOSE AREAS THAT CAN CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BENEFICIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION BUT YOUR NEIGHBOR A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD
MIGHT MISS OUT...ITS THAT KIND OF PATTERN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SEEM
LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SET UP FOR NOW. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL GO WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE SHAKY...BUT MOST MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT DECREASING CHANCES BY
LATE EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM WHEN IT
COMES TO OVERNIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND WILL GO FROM SCATTERED WORDING IN THE
EVENING TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SPEAK OF FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE
OVERVIEW OF POPS...THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES
TO CARRY VARIOUS 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF 40-50 POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CAME CLOSE TO INTRODUCING SOME 60
PERCENT LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
DIFFICULTY OF PRECIP FORECASTING IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THINGS GET INTO THE SHORTER TERM
12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME TO GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT ANYTHING IS
"LIKELY". BEYOND MONDAY DAYTIME...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING
TOWARD NO LONGER NEEDING POPS ACROSS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...DID
MAINTAIN A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME...BEFORE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS RE- ENTER THE PICTURE
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CONSIDERED REDUCING
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME POPS TO "SILENT" 10 PERCENT TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE JUST
INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM AS-
IS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE JUST IN CASE MODELS TREND BACK THE OTHER
WAY AGAIN.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS SEASONABLY-TYPICAL...ONE OF THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING NEAR/BELOW 30KT. OFFICIALLY...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDED A SLIVER OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL-BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. AT LEAST LIMITED PARTS OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES MAINLY DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST TWEAKS
TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR
LOWS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S EACH MORNING. FOR HIGH
TEMPS...THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS
WHERE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP
COULD EASILY RESULT IN 5+ DEGREE ERRORS...BUT IN GENERAL A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL REGIME FOR MID-AUGUST LOOKS TO PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY-
THURSDAY...WITH MOST NEB ZONES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT LOW-MID 80S AND
KS ZONES MORE SO MID-80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS LOOK
TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODESTLY-HUMID FEEL IN THE
AIR...BUT NOTHING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE BY AUGUST STANDARDS EITHER.
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO SOME DEGREE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AT LEAST
LIGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF SOMEWHAT
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF LIGHT BREEZES AND THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
SUPPORT OF AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF FOG FORMATION PER 00Z MET/MAV
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO TOSS IN ANOTHER
GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING OVER
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-36
HOURS TIME FRAMES...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
AWHILE NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN POP TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
24-48 HOUR RANGE. VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE SAME...PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE...MEANING THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND FAIRLY
SUBTLE ZONES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN
THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER. STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE
GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD QPF FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE 06Z NAM PORTRAYS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOOK
OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW RUNS. AS
A RESULT...SUSPECT THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAY...STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AS THE AREA GENERALLY LIES IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE SOME SPOTTY LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LASTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT 20 POP IN ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
STAY STORM-FREE...AND IN FACT KEPT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN
ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...BRING A SOLID ZONE OF 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A PASSING
MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD KEEP HALFWAY DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAKENING
STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A
POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR DAYTIME POPS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST 30-50 CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST IN EASTERN
ZONES...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 20S IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE
CANDIDATES FOR FUTURE REMOVAL OF SUNDAY NIGHT POPS.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE EXPANDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHUNTS THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY...WHILE LEAVING THE NIGHT
PRECIP-FREE.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DESPITE SOME HINTS IN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS
RUNS OF BRINGING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BACK INTO WESTERN
ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PROVIDE LIMITED
LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36 HOURS BRINGS VARIOUS 20-
30 PERCENT POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS
RANGE FOCUSED ON WED NIGHT-THURS AND MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. EVEN PER THE ECMWF...AND AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS MAY BE A FUTURE CANDIDATE FOR
REMOVAL OF SLIGHT POPS FROM MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THERE ARE NUMEROUS AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PREFERRED TIME AND THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE RANGING FROM EAST NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERLY WHILE PREDOMINATELY BEING OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATE THE ONGOING MCS
WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND REACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SPC SUGGESTED. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA LOOKS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. THE RAP
MODEL MAINTAINS BETTER FORCING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NCNTL
ZONES WITH THE LEFT FRONT PORTION OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND MAX
POSITIONED THERE.
THE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SATURDAY SEES AN ELONGATE AND SHALLOW
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SOME LINGER SHOWERS PUSH EAST IN THE
MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME SUN WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 80S...THEN MODELS BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL HELP MOISTEN/SUSTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...HOWEVER WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT
DO TO RECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGER WAVES.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO RIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING...HOWEVER FORECAST FAVORS
A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. TEMPS SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD
TREND...WITH SOME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTS THE KLBF OR KVTN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NEAR
TERM MESOSCALE MODEL SOLNS. WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...DECIDED
TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE VICINITY OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL ONLY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SOLN...AS WELL
AS THE GFS SOLNS...ARE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HANDLED
WITH A PROB 30 GROUP FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL. BETTER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO WILL HANDLE TSRAS FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIMING BEST PCPN
CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING. A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER BUT MOVING OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED AROUND
500 MB WAS OVER NRN UT. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE
NOTED FROM UT INTO WY AND CO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS NOTED OVER WRN IA. KOAX SOUNDING FROM
12Z SHOWED ABOUT 1.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH DID NOT DO A PERFECT JOB
LAST EVENING...BUT WAS FAIRLY GOOD...SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD TEND TO BUILD IN
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER DRYING A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG...SO ADDED THAT. THE SPOTTY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY FROM 63 TO 66. SOME
LIGHT PCPN COULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER FRIDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND
SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN
TO MAINLY THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
THEN WENT MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT
TURNS WET TOWARD DAY 7 WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND LIFTED INDICES DROP. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
80S AND LOWS 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS TIMING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. FLGT CAT
TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWING INCREASING IFR
COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB...AND EXPECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT STILL EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 13Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THOUGH WITH VFR CIGS
FL050 AGL GENERALLY PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ON NORTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPANDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND
NORTHWEST MN. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE AREAS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY SLIPS
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE MIGHT
BE SOME RESIDUAL SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE -NON MEASURABLE - LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LATE FORM TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 TO 65.
WITH COOL AND MOIST MID LEVELS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY...DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH
A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AGAIN...WITH SOME DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SUPPORT COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WEAK H5 FLOW EARLY IN THE PD WONT HELP FOCUS ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. ON FRI NIGHT...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALL WEST OF THE JAMES...WILL PROVIDE SOME IMPETUS FOR SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE ENTIRE
CWA.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE AT H5 AND H7 BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE CWA. POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE CAT AS A COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REALLY JUST WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA.
FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY OVERALL PATTERN TURNS TO RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST. THIS LOW WILL EJECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWVS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NW FLOW OVER THE
CWA BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF TSRA EVERY OTHER DAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER WAVE/TROF APPROACHES ON WED/THURS SO HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE THEN.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY.
ANTICIPATING FSD/SUX TO REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. WILL WATCH VISIBILITIES BOUNCE AROUND TROUGH DAYBREAK. HURON
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LOWER STRATUS.
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATCH OUT FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE
ACROSS SUX/FSD...WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY WORDING BUT LATER TAFS MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE A MORE PREVAILING WORDING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH CONTINUED COOLING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WE STILL EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WE/LL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AT KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF GIVEN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR IN THE 11-14Z
TIME FRAME. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
CLOUDS BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ANOTHER CU
FIELD WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CU IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TOMORROW ALSO SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PW VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104 ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ONLY MIX OUT TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOMORROW IN THE 103 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THIS WEEKEND....A WEAK UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO THEN MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE FLOW
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL ALSO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AS WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS MOSTLY THE
SAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A DIFFERENT PATTERN
SHAPING UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE RETURN OF A RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A TROUGH
TO DROP INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RE-CENTER AND AMPLIFY ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE CANADIAN. THERE ARE QUESTIONS OF
HOW FAR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND ALSO THE BEST TIMING
FOR RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FORECASTING 850 TEMPS TO BE THE
HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR...RANGING FROM 22 TO 25 C. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SEE THE CENTURY
MARK. WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT IN NORTH
TEXAS.
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT
TYPE OF IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 101 75 99 75 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 100 72 100 72 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 72 100 72 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 73 99 73 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 77 / 0 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 99 74 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 72 98 72 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 98 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THEN ONE PIECE OF THIS LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PIECE CROSSING
INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS MOVES EAST TODAY. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS BRING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 00Z/8PM. BY THEN THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 850 MB WARM
FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO NORFOLK. GOOD LIFT ALSO COMES
IN BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND Q-V FORCING
BY 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EAST IN TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A STRONG
IN-SITU WEDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
LATE TONIGHT. PLUS SOUTHEAST SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASE THE UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO A SECOND AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THIS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. ADDED
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN THREAT COMES FROM THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT FORECAST AND A DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CAD EVENT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE
LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CREATE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.
THE RAINFALL DELIVERED BY THE FIRST WAVE WILL HELP DETERMINE ANY
FLOOD THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF TODAY
CONVECTION SHOULD HELP PIN POINT ANY POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR ANY
PROBLEMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AND MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN HWO. IN GENERAL...ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOAKING RAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE. EVEN IF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...DRY SOILS AND LOW
CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IF RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY HIGH DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD RESULT.
AN INSITU WEDGE WILL GET OVERRUN BY WARM MOIST AIR SATURDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL DAY SATURDAY
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 70S EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS AND PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WITH WEDGE WILL HOLD COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM MID 60S IN THE WEDGE TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S IN THE FAR WEST. INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST AND TAPER OFF
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...DRIFTING TOWARD LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY LOW AROUND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THE BULK OF THE MODERATE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COOL WEDGE OF AIR TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT THE WEDGE IN PLACE
WILL ERODE SIGNIFICANTLY...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY CLOSER
TO SUNDAY. IN GENERAL..HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UNDER CUT HPCGUIDE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
MENTION OF SCATTERED STORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MOIST NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLOUDS ALREADY FILLING IN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
12Z/8AM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT TO WHEN CEILINGS WILL DROP AT KLWB
AND KBLF.
PRECIPITATION WAS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AT 06Z/2AM AND
WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH KBLF AND
KLWB...MAINLY AFTER 15Z/11AM. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COVER
THE AREA BY 00Z/8PM TONIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON RAIN AT KLYH AND
KDAN UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT ALL AIRPORTS TO IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING. MAY
SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING EARLY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MOST
LIKELY AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER CLOSE BY ARE KBLF AND KLWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...RAIN COOLED AIR...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE...
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS.
MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE COOL WEDGE...BUT THINK THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA WILL BE VERY LOW CIGS/VSBYS.
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS:
AUGUST 9TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 69 1970 1912
LYH 70 1970 1893
DAN 73 1989 1948
BCB 66 1995 1952
BLF 66 1970 1959
LWB 68 1995 1973
AUGUST 10TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 66 1970 1912
LYH 68 1970 1893
DAN 72 1970 1948
BCB 64 1970 1952
BLF 59 1970 1959
LWB 73 1996 1973
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
CEILINGS THAT ARE MARKEDLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
IOWA THAN ACROSS THE WEST DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED BUT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHER
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL THAN ACROSS THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WEST AND HIGHER INSTABILITY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED/EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DID
USE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORDING BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF
THE HOPWRF AND THE HRRR WERE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH LESS PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE HRRR HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SO I LEANED MORE TOWARDS IT.
TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL TODAY THOUGH I DID NUDGE HIGHS A BIT WARMER
EAST WHERE I FELT THERE WOULD BE LESS OR HIGHER CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING BUT SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP PCPN
DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SOME
CONVECTION WILL PRESS INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME...SO
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF AXIS
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO LINGER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON MONDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS EASTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY KEEPS MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MESSY TAF FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FEEDING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS IS CAUSING
SCT/BKN CLOUDS OR HIER OVC CIGS. WESTERN IA WILL SEE LOWER CIGS AS
THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT PAST KFOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE IOWA TODAY THROUGH 02-
03Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING BACK LOWER CIGS WITH SOME
INCREASED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD
TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF IA. MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER TAFS AFT 02Z ALONG WITH SOME FOG.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS MAIN AREA OF FOG JUST EAST OF KMCK...HOWEVER
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GOOD MOISTURE...AND FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINAL I DECIDED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF TAF. CONFIDENCE WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSILBE AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AT KGLD THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
946 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Short range guidance depicting some variability with remnants of
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma MCS, most notably the HRRR which
maintains a northeast development. This solution is at odds with
RUC and 12z NAM and discounted due to observed trends. Question
then becomes maintenance into this afternoon as the weakening
front descends into Arkansas. Have updated to bump POPs up a bit
over far se Kansas and far sw Missouri during the late morning
into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop
along a stalled boundary across southern Missouri early this
morning. This was mainly in response to the upper level wave that was
making slow eastward progress over the past 24 hours. This feature
is expected to shift east of the region this morning with
diminishing coverage of rain.
The rain potential may increase later today however as a storm
complex over central Kansas continues to make steady progression
eastward. This complex is associated with another upper level
short wave. Models have advertised a weakening of the northern
extent of the complex with the main area of the system diving
south of the Ozarks later today. This may still happen, however,
with the current track of the system and the lack of noticeable
deterioration, have included some rain chances for today and into
tonight. If the system starts to behave more in line with what the
models expect, will need to modify the going forecast. For now
though, the system looks to be able to hold together long enough
that is should make it to the Ozarks.
Chances for additional rainfall will remain in the forecast
through tonight as a result of several weak shortwaves continuing
to break down the upper level ridge that had been in place the
earlier this week. This flatter flow, along with the weak short
waves, will interact with the rather moist air mass in place to
continue the chance for scattered showers and storms through the
overnight hours into early Saturday morning.
The transition from upper ridge to northwest flow and expected
cloud cover will also bring slight cooler daytime highs.
Afternoon highs for this time of year normally run around 90
degrees. At this point, am only expecting highs to climb near 90
in very far southwestern Missouri with cooler reading across
central Missouri in the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A northwest flow pattern, unusual for this time of year will
persist through this upcoming weekend and into early next week and
provide several chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact
the Ozarks region. This will also bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the area with daytime highs only expected to be
in the 80s for most of the region through next week.
The upper level ridge will attempt to move back over the region
late next week. However, models show another short wave moving
out of the Pacific Northwest and knocking the ridge down once more
and bringing additional chances for rain and storms for late next
week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: IFR visibility and/or ceilings are
moving southward from central MO and they will possibly make it
as far south as KJLN/KBBG before burning off later this morning. A
tough call on timing in terms of how long the clouds will persist
and lift. A slow moving diffuse boundary close to the MO/Ar line
will be the focus for some scattered shra/tsra later today and
will include a prob30 group for KBBG for now. Additional activity
along the boundary may develop over far sw MO again late in the taf
period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
939 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Several adjustments made to the short term portion of the forecast.
First, northeast boundary layer winds associated with weak surface
low over east central MO is maintaining wrap around stratus over much
of the CWA. Latest NAM/RUC low-level condensation pressure deficit
progs hold onto this cloud cover longer, most notably over the
northeastern CWA where it will likely remain cloudy all day. Convective
cloud debris tied to weakening convection moving across southern
KS/northern OK will affect at least the western CWA. In addition,
small cluster of low-topped convection moving towards east central KS
is associated with a MCV. 13Z HRRR just arriving and is starting to
pick up on this activity. Believe the convection will have some legs
and could make it into west central MO by around 18z. Have increased
PoPs over the far western CWA to account for this. Have also lowered
temperatures to account for increased cloud cover and precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Regional radars showing decaying MCS activity across central KS this
morning as a pair of shortwave disturbances crest a mid-level ridge
over the central Plains. Overall impact across our region will
likely be limited to residual cloud cover as high-res models suggest
activity will dissipate with further eastward progress. Closer to our
neck of the woods...boundary layer moisture trapped below nocturnal
inversion is leading to a fair amount of low stratus and fog across
the region this morning. As was the case yesterday...current low
clouds will delay daytime heating to some degree which will help
keep high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon...some
4-8 degrees below normal. Fcst models do develop some precipitation
across the area today...however with the only real forcing coming
from a weak shortwave later on...have decided to cap pops in the slgt
chc category.
For tonight...mostly dry conditions expected as sfc ridging from
parent high pressure positioned across the western Great Lakes
becomes firmly established across our region. Despite the passage of
a fairly decent shortwave...overall available moisture will be
limited thanks to the strengthening ridge axis. That said...cannot
totally rule out a stray shwr or two and this have kept slgt chc pops
going for areas south of I-70.
Nebulous wx pattern to continue right into Sat with sfc ridging
remaining in control. This feature should deflect best chances for
precip south of the region as ridge axis continues to sharpen with
time through the day. As a result...have maintained a dry fcst with
highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Fcst becomes a bit more interesting come Sun/Sun Ngt as a high
building south from the western Canada nudges a central High Plains
low east with time. As this occurs...shortwave energy will translate
southeast from the northern Plains which will ultimately provide
increasing mid-level forcing for ascent by Sunday night. From this
vantage point...return moisture looks be be fairly limited thanks for
a limited low-level jet response...however enough lingering moisture
should be in place to help initiate redeveloping shwr/storm activity
Sunday night/early Monday. Lingering precip will exit stage right
Monday afternoon with high pressure set to arrive early Tuesday.
Dry and tranquil wx expected through much of early next week as high
pressure remains in firm control. Expect below normal temps to
continue through much of the extended as northeasterly flow is
maintained as high pressure remains parked over the western Great
Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Challenging fcst this morning as all three fcst points reside of far
western edge of low stratus deck. Latest satellite trends suggest low
stratus may creep up towards both MCI and MKC within the hr. As a
result...have maintained a tempo low-end MVFR mention at all three
locations. Beyond the 15/16z time frame...cigs should rise above VFR
thresholds with northeast winds between 5-10 kts prevailing through
the day. Later tonight...some potential for developing fog if
skies clear but overall confidence remains to low at this point to
include with current package.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATE THE ONGOING MCS
WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND REACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SPC SUGGESTED. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA LOOKS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. THE RAP
MODEL MAINTAINS BETTER FORCING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NCNTL
ZONES WITH THE LEFT FRONT PORTION OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND MAX
POSITIONED THERE.
THE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SATURDAY SEES AN ELONGATE AND SHALLOW
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SOME LINGER SHOWERS PUSH EAST IN THE
MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME SUN WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 80S...THEN MODELS BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL HELP MOISTEN/SUSTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...HOWEVER WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT
DO TO RECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGER WAVES.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO RIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING...HOWEVER FORECAST FAVORS
A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. TEMPS SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD
TREND...WITH SOME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH DISSIPATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS
MORNING SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
21Z-03Z. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS LIKELY 03Z-06Z ONWARD.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS WRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MVFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP 06Z ONWARD EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT
PERHAPS FARTHER WEST.
ONGOING MVFR/LOCAL IFR THIS AM IMPROVES TO VFR 15Z-17Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT IN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT.
AT 330 AM...WSR-88D WAS INDICATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE WITH THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE 750-800 MB LAYER.
THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH DAWN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...CALLING INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE
CURRENT EXPANSION OF OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINGS START TO DIE OUT. THE 06Z HRRR IS LARGELY DRY FROM
SUNRISE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING.
THE NMM AND ARW WRF MODELS DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AM NOT YET READY TO BITE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CHANGE MY MIND.
ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF
THIS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN THAT PROMOTES SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PULSE TYPE STORMS...FELT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND HAVE THUS REDUCED POPS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 0-6 KM OF 20-30 KTS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LASTING
CONVECTION AND THE STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH MAKING IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
COVER MUCH REAL ESTATE. HOWEVER...THOSE AREAS THAT CAN CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BENEFICIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION BUT YOUR NEIGHBOR A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD
MIGHT MISS OUT...ITS THAT KIND OF PATTERN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SEEM
LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SET UP FOR NOW. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL GO WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE SHAKY...BUT MOST MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT DECREASING CHANCES BY
LATE EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM WHEN IT
COMES TO OVERNIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND WILL GO FROM SCATTERED WORDING IN THE
EVENING TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SPEAK OF FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE
OVERVIEW OF POPS...THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES
TO CARRY VARIOUS 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF 40-50 POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CAME CLOSE TO INTRODUCING SOME 60
PERCENT LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
DIFFICULTY OF PRECIP FORECASTING IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THINGS GET INTO THE SHORTER TERM
12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME TO GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT ANYTHING IS
"LIKELY". BEYOND MONDAY DAYTIME...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING
TOWARD NO LONGER NEEDING POPS ACROSS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...DID
MAINTAIN A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME...BEFORE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS RE- ENTER THE PICTURE
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CONSIDERED REDUCING
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME POPS TO "SILENT" 10 PERCENT TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE JUST
INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM AS-
IS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE JUST IN CASE MODELS TREND BACK THE OTHER
WAY AGAIN.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS SEASONABLY-TYPICAL...ONE OF THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING NEAR/BELOW 30KT. OFFICIALLY...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDED A SLIVER OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL-BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. AT LEAST LIMITED PARTS OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES MAINLY DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST TWEAKS
TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR
LOWS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S EACH MORNING. FOR HIGH
TEMPS...THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS
WHERE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP
COULD EASILY RESULT IN 5+ DEGREE ERRORS...BUT IN GENERAL A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL REGIME FOR MID-AUGUST LOOKS TO PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY-
THURSDAY...WITH MOST NEB ZONES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT LOW-MID 80S AND
KS ZONES MORE SO MID-80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS LOOK
TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODESTLY-HUMID FEEL IN THE
AIR...BUT NOTHING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE BY AUGUST STANDARDS EITHER.
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO SOME DEGREE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AT LEAST
LIGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF SOMEWHAT
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF LIGHT BREEZES AND THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
SUPPORT OF AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF FOG FORMATION PER 00Z MET/MAV
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO TOSS IN ANOTHER
GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING OVER
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-36
HOURS TIME FRAMES...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
AWHILE NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN POP TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
24-48 HOUR RANGE. VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE SAME...PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE...MEANING THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND FAIRLY
SUBTLE ZONES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN
THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER. STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE
GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD QPF FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE 06Z NAM PORTRAYS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOOK
OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW RUNS. AS
A RESULT...SUSPECT THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAY...STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AS THE AREA GENERALLY LIES IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE SOME SPOTTY LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LASTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT 20 POP IN ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
STAY STORM-FREE...AND IN FACT KEPT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN
ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...BRING A SOLID ZONE OF 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A PASSING
MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD KEEP HALFWAY DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAKENING
STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A
POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR DAYTIME POPS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST 30-50 CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST IN EASTERN
ZONES...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 20S IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE
CANDIDATES FOR FUTURE REMOVAL OF SUNDAY NIGHT POPS.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE EXPANDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHUNTS THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY...WHILE LEAVING THE NIGHT
PRECIP-FREE.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DESPITE SOME HINTS IN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS
RUNS OF BRINGING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BACK INTO WESTERN
ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PROVIDE LIMITED
LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36 HOURS BRINGS VARIOUS 20-
30 PERCENT POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS
RANGE FOCUSED ON WED NIGHT-THURS AND MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. EVEN PER THE ECMWF...AND AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS MAY BE A FUTURE CANDIDATE FOR
REMOVAL OF SLIGHT POPS FROM MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE BIGGEST AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER
AROUND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PREFERRED
TIME AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AN EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF PRIMARILY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NAIL DOWN THE TIMING WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES. IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN UNTIL AROUND 9 AM WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT FAR
FROM KGRI. THUS FAR THIS FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF KGRI...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED SKY COVER A BIT THRU SATURDAY TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OTHERWISE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES INSTABILY REMAINS IN
ACHORED IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO WRN
ND...WITH SECOND CORE IN FAR SOUTHERN SD/NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FAR NORTH AS ANY CONVECTION IN MANITOBA MAY MAKE A RUN AT
NRN VALLEY. KEPT FAR FAR SRN VALLEY WITH LOW POPS MID AFTN-EVE AS
WELL THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATER IN THIS 84
HOUR PERIOD. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUN. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHT FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SD FRI NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO WATER VAPOR LOO
INDICATED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OVER SOUTHWEST
MAN. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE NORTH TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR SAT AND SUN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
NORTH FOR TODAY. TWEAKED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MON THROUGH THU...EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/WEAK FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON THU. MOST OF THE OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR NEXT
THU...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. PATCHY CIGS AROUND 4 TO 9
THOUSAND FT WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVER SD EXPECTED
TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD LIFT BY 8 OR 9 AM. MORE DENSE FOG
WAS AROUND BJI BUT SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY 8 OR 9AM. FOG LOOP
INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND SHOULD
SPREAD EAST TODAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SETTING
OFF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PARIS TN
TO NEAR PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHING EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE BROKEN LINE. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY COME FROM WHATEVER DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD...BUT MAY NEED AN
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WHERE THE CONVECTION OCCURS BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECASTED HIGHS ALONE AS TEMPERATURES COULD
QUICKLY REBOUND ONCE CONVECTION PUSHES EAST.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
WHAT AN UNUSUAL SUMMER WEATHERWISE! AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WERE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE REGION IN WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
00Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF ABOUT
1.9 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED EARLIER TONIGHT FROM THE
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY...BUT AT EARLY MORNING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHEAST AR INTO EXTREME WEST TN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
ABOVE 2 INCHES TODAY. A WET MICROBURST AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
COOLING. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
BY SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO EASTERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL
KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER...WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED DURING PART OF THIS TIME IN LATER FORECASTS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE...AND MENTIONED THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
IT LOOKS LIKE CLEARING SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
CONTINUING THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER. LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL
OCCUR FOR A FEW DAYS.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTER OF -TSRA IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TN THIS
MORNING AND MAY TEMPORARILY AFFECT MKL. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY
08/18Z...NUMEROUS -TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE
PLACED A TEMPO FOR THE PERIOD THAT WARRANTS THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY -TSRA
THAT PERSISTS. OUTSIDE OF -TSRAS AND -SHRAS...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOG AND
ADDITIONAL -SHRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09/01Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION TO PLACE IN TAF JUST YET. FUTURE
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AC3
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THEN ONE PIECE OF THIS LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PIECE CROSSING
INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS MOVES EAST TODAY. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS BRING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 00Z/8PM. BY THEN THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 850 MB WARM
FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO NORFOLK. GOOD LIFT ALSO COMES
IN BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND Q-V FORCING
BY 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EAST IN TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A STRONG
IN-SITU WEDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
LATE TONIGHT. PLUS SOUTHEAST SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASE THE UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO A SECOND AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THIS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. ADDED
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN THREAT COMES FROM THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT FORECAST AND A DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CAD EVENT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE
LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CREATE A MILLER TYPE-B LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.
THE RAINFALL DELIVERED BY THE FIRST WAVE WILL HELP DETERMINE ANY
FLOOD THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF TODAY
CONVECTION SHOULD HELP PIN POINT ANY POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR ANY
PROBLEMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AND MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN HWO. IN GENERAL...ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOAKING RAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE. EVEN IF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...DRY SOILS AND LOW
CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IF RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY HIGH DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD RESULT.
AN INSITU WEDGE WILL GET OVERRUN BY WARM MOIST AIR SATURDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL DAY SATURDAY
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 70S EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS AND PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WITH WEDGE WILL HOLD COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM MID 60S IN THE WEDGE TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S IN THE FAR WEST. INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST AND TAPER OFF
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...DRIFTING TOWARD LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY LOW AROUND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THE BULK OF THE MODERATE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COOL WEDGE OF AIR TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT THE WEDGE IN PLACE
WILL ERODE SIGNIFICANTLY...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY CLOSER
TO SUNDAY. IN GENERAL..HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UNDER CUT HPCGUIDE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
MENTION OF SCATTERED STORMS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MOIST NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY NOON.PRECIPITATION WAS
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA TO EASTERN TENNESSEE AT 12Z/8AM AND WAS
MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH KBLF AND
KLWB BEFORE 15Z/11AM. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COVER THE AREA
BY 00Z/8PM TONIGHT. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER
CLOSE BY ARE KBLF AND KLWB.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR THEN IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR CEILINGS WILL
DROP BY 12Z/8AM. GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS GIVEN A WEDGE IS DEVELOPING AND WITH GOOD LIFT AND
OVERRUNNING GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN...LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...RAIN COOLED AIR...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE...
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS.
MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE
OF THE COOL WEDGE...BUT THINK THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA WILL BE VERY LOW CIGS/VSBYS.
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS:
AUGUST 9TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 69 1970 1912
LYH 70 1970 1893
DAN 73 1989 1948
BCB 66 1995 1952
BLF 66 1970 1959
LWB 68 1995 1973
AUGUST 10TH
CITY CURRENT RECORD YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN
ROA 66 1970 1912
LYH 68 1970 1893
DAN 72 1970 1948
BCB 64 1970 1952
BLF 59 1970 1959
LWB 73 1996 1973
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT
THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S
F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 2-4 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS
THIS TIME THUR.
08/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.28 INCHES WAS AN
INCREASE OF 0.30 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE...WITH UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2047 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX OF MINUS 5. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WAS FAIRLY MOIST IN THE
SURFACE-550 MB LAYER...VERY DRY AIR WAS OBSERVED ABOVE 500 MB.
08/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED 591 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE NRN CONUS
PLAINS. A WEAK TROUGH WAS OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND WRN AZ. LIGHT
GENERALLY ELY/SELY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE AZ...
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 500 MB.
08/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND 08/14Z RUC HRRR WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING PRECIP ECHOES TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN
PROGGED TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ALSO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD EXHIBIT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UPWARD GROWTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AS NOTED IN THE ABOVE
DIAGNOSTICS. UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM THEN SUGGESTS THAT DRY CONDITIONS
WOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THRU MID-MORNING SAT. THE FAVORED
LOCALES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE EAST OF TUCSON
AS PER THE 08/12Z NAM.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-THUR. 08/00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ENHANCED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TUE AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE AREA. SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS MAY THEN OCCUR WED AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT
LOW REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO...STILL ABOUT 4-5 DAYS AWAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL...DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SE AZ INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE WEST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS...AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KOLS TERMINAL. BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM OUTFLOWS
MAY APPROACH 35-40 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
8-12K FT AGL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR WILL THEN CONTINUE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
CEILINGS THAT ARE MARKEDLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
IOWA THAN ACROSS THE WEST DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED BUT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHER
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL THAN ACROSS THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WEST AND HIGHER INSTABILITY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED/EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DID
USE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORDING BECAUSE I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF
THE HOPWRF AND THE HRRR WERE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH LESS PRECIP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE HRRR HAS DONE PRETTY WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SO I LEANED MORE TOWARDS IT.
TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL TODAY THOUGH I DID NUDGE HIGHS A BIT WARMER
EAST WHERE I FELT THERE WOULD BE LESS OR HIGHER CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING BUT SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP PCPN
DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SOME
CONVECTION WILL PRESS INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME...SO
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF AXIS
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO LINGER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON MONDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS EASTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY KEEPS MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS AREAS OF WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTIRBUANCE WILL FACILITATE LONG-TERM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL EXCEPT THE KMCW AND KALO TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PD. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME LOWER CIGS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMCW AND
KALO AROUND SUNRISE TMRW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
110 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LOWER THEM
LATER TODAY. CURRENT WV LOOP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING AS IT DEPARTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REPRESENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE AND ARE LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER FURTHER
ANALYSIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...QVECTORS ARE UNFAVORABLE...BUT MAY BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AND OMEGA FIELDS ARE
FAVORABLE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
MAY BE SEVERE. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEBULOUS...BUT HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THAT PATTERN WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW PROBABLY ENOUGH TO TAP INTO WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ZERO CIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING MID LEVELS WILL WORK AGAINST
CONVECTION...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST IN EASTERN COLORADO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND THE AXIS NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR POPS WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE WITH LOW SHEAR UNDER
THE RIDGE. BY LATE WEEK...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT SOUTH
AND WEST WHICH SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS LAST EVENING AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT EITHER
KGLD OR KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR A
PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LESS VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LOWER THEM
LATER TODAY. CURRENT WV LOOP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING AS IT DEPARTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REPRESENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE AND ARE LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER FURTHER
ANALYSIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS LAST EVENING AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT EITHER
KGLD OR KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR A
PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LESS VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LOWER THEM
LATER TODAY. CURRENT WV LOOP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVENING AS IT DEPARTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REPRESENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE AND ARE LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AFTER FURTHER
ANALYSIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EMBEDDED WITHING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NE
COLORADO WITH A STRONGER/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. AT
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...HOWEVER STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS.
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...EARLY THIS MORNING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE TRANSITIONED EASTWARD OF OUR CWA.
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE...ABOUT 1000 J/KG MU
CAPE...AND SOME MINOR H85 SUPPORT WE COULD SEE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO AND CHEYENNE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEER AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL...THOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN US...HOWEVER OVERALL CHANGE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA
WILL BE MINOR AS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
WITHOUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS I DECIDED
AGAINST MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE. I DID ADD
SOME DETAIL TO TIMING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEER EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
BETTER OVERLAP OF SEVERE PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MONDAY THRU END OF WEEK PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON LATEST MODELS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL...SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWS FOR
SETUP OF LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES...REMAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOSTLY EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH BEST
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...WITH MAIN FOCUS IN ZONES NEAREST TO THE FRONT
RANGE...THEN SHIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AS
SHORTWAVES WORK THRU REGION(MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER AREA WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FETCH BRINGING IN
DEEP SOUTHERN MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S...WITH WARMEST IN EASTERN ZONES...COOLEST NEAR FRONT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS MAIN AREA OF FOG JUST EAST OF KMCK...HOWEVER
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GOOD MOISTURE...AND FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINAL I DECIDED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF TAF. CONFIDENCE WASNT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSILBE AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AT KGLD THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WASHINGTON AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DIMINUTION OF CVRG OF SHWRS/TSTMS
PROGRESSING SWRD FROM FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR
REF SHOWS THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EVE HRS. SO WE USED THE TM
FUNCTION TO MOVE AHEAD THE END TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS 2-3 HRS SOONER
THIS EVE THAN THE LAST FCST UPDATE...BUT NOT TO FAST TO TRUNCATE
CURRENT CVRG IN LEGACY ZONE WORDING...SPCLY CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS. OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD CLR OVR MOST OF THE FA LATER
TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS ERN PTNS BORDERING NB PROV...WERE PTLY CLDY
SKIES AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY HANG ON DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT IN
THE VICINITY TO PTNS OF THE FA THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL FROM
THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT NRLY GRADIENT BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR FOG TO MATERIALIZE...SO HELD OFF MENTIONING IN GRIDS FOR
LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT MORN FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FA ON SAT...WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY HI ALF DIGGING SE OVR THE
FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EWRD DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVR THE
MARITIMES BY SAT AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTN CLDNSS AND
SCT SHWRS MSLY OVR NE CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WITH FCST
AFTN MAX SBCAPE XPCTD TO BE LESS (MSLY LESS THAN 500J/KG) SAT AFTN
THAN THIS CURRENT AFTN...FOR NOW WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING WITH GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT POPS. WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE XPCTD...AFTN HI TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
WARMER THAN THIS AFTN...SPCLY OVR LOWER WRN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 80. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINE TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW WITH REGION BACK IN WARM
SECTOR AND DECENT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP THIS POINT.
LESS AGREEMENT CREEPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT OFF NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
WE GO INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME MORE ON THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING MOST
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE
THINKING 06Z SOLUTION IS FAST. THE MODEL BLEND WILL PUT SOME
WEIGHT TOWARD THE WPC GRID WHICH WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. THEREFORE USING THIS APPROACH WILL NOT BRING PRECIP IN
QUITE AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUSION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A RESULT WILL KEEP REGION
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM AND TRAILING OFF INTO
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN AN REMNANT TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHWRS THRU ERLY EVE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR OVRNGT
INTO SAT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH
WINDS AND WV WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. DUE TO THE SIG REMNANT SWELL
COMPONENT TO THE TOTAL WV HTS...WE STAYED CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR OUTER MZS AND AND
LESS ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/MCW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DIMINUATION OF CVRG OF SHWRS/TSTMS PROGRESSING
SWRD FROM FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HRRR SIMULATED RADAR REF SHOWS
THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EVE HRS. SO WE USED THE TM FUNCTION TO
MOVE AHEAD THE END TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS 2-3 HRS SOONER THIS EVE
THAN THE LAST FCST UPDATE...BUT NOT TO FAST TO TRUNCATE CURRENT CVRG
IN LEGACY ZONE WORDING...SPCLY CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS. OTHERWISE...
SKIES SHOULD CLR OVR MOST OF THE FA LATER TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS ERN
PTNS BORDERING NB PROV...WERE PTLY CLDY SKIES AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY
HANG ON DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT IN THE VICINITY TO PTNS OF THE FA
THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL FROM THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT NRLY
GRADIENT BREEZE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR FOG TO MATERIALIZE...SO HELD
OFF MENTIONING IN GRIDS FOR LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT MORN FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FA ON SAT...WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY HI ALF DIGGING SE OVR THE
FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EWRD DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVR THE
MARITIMES BY SAT AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTN CLDNSS AND
SCT SHWRS MSLY OVR NE CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WITH FCST
AFTN MAX SBCAPE XPCTD TO BE LESS (MSLY LESS THAN 500J/KG) SAT AFTN
THAN THIS CURRENT AFTN...FOR NOW WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH NO
ENHANCED WORDING WITH GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT POPS. WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE XPCTD...AFTN HI TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
WARMER THAN THIS AFTN...SPCLY OVR LOWER WRN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY LINGERING EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR 80. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINE TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW WITH REGION BACK IN WARM
SECTOR AND DECENT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP THIS POINT.
LESS AGREEMENT CREEPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT OFF NEAR THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
WE GO INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME MORE ON THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING MOST
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE
THINKING 06Z SOLUTION IS FAST. THE MODEL BLEND WILL PUT SOME
WEIGHT TOWARD THE WPC GRID WHICH WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. THEREFORE USING THIS APPROACH WILL NOT BRING PRECIP IN
QUITE AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUSION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A RESULT WILL KEEP REGION
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM AND TRAILING OFF INTO
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN AN REMNANT TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHWRS THRU ERLY EVE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR OVRNGT
INTO SAT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH
WINDS AND WV WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA. DUE TO THE SIG REMNANT SWELL
COMPONENT TO THE TOTAL WV HTS...WE STAYED CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR OUTER MZS AND AND
LESS ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
403 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Tonight-Saturday:
Weak zonal flow resulting in fairly quiet weather next 30 hours. In
the very near term what`s left of a weak MCV moving into northwest MO
late is likely to generate little if any precipitation as the feature
works its way through a stable environment. Main concern is how long
stratus will linger as well as fog potential. Considering how moist
the boundary layer is plus light winds under a nocturnal inversion
believe conditions favor fog development. SREF visibility prog and
UPS fog output also support fog formation. Pockets of dense fog
certainly possible in locally favored regions. RUC and NAM
condensation pressure deficit progs also maintain low clouds over at
least northeast MO through the night.
Saturday looks rain-free with warmer temperatures, albeit still
below normal, owing to the likelihood of seeing sunshine.
Saturday night-Sunday night:
This period still holds our best chance of seeing convective
activity. The upper flow remains weak and zonal. However, the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF have shown continuity/consistency with a weak shortwave
trough coming out of the southeast WY/NE Panhandle area late Saturday
afternoon/evening. These models track the feature ese and generate a
convective complex. The southerly low level jet is not particularly
strong nor is there a frontal boundary to enhance the low-level
convergence so how long the convection holds together is still
debatable. For now, can justify increasing PoPs over the western CWA
late Saturday night and Sunday. Of interest is the ECMWF and LSX`s
local WRF models which generate a second and possible stronger area
of convection with a cold front that drags through the region late
Sunday afternoon and evening. Lacking confirmation from the NAM and
GFS prevents me from ratcheting up PoPs for this period but it does
bear watching. Heavy rainfall may need to be considered in later
forecasts once there is a better handle on the longevity of possible
MCS. Max temperatures will likely be problematic due to precipitation
and cloud cover distribution. Did trend them lower over the northern
and western CWA.
Monday-Thursday:
An old friend is about to revisit us as the upper flow transition
once again to a sharpening upper trough from the Great Lakes through
the OH Valley and the upper ridge pumping up over the Rockies. This
will leave us in northwest flow aloft as well as on the east side and
northerly winds of a surface high spreading across the central U.S.
This pattern has repeated itself several times this summer and has
resulted in much cooler than average temperatures. Models are
trending this way but look too slow/warm initially....which is
typical. So, have lowered temperatures during this period. Should be
a dry period although widely scattered convection could pop up mainly
Monday afternoon as a weak vorticity lobe drops through IA and
eastern half of MO.
Thursday night-Friday:
The Rockies upper ridge shows signs of breaking down with a possible
shortwave trough shoving east through the Central Plains. This is
enough to add in some chance PoPs as well as allow temperatures to
warm closer to seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MVFR cigs covering most of northern and west central MO will be slow
to clear from west to east this afternoon. Good chance northeast MO
will remain in MVFR inot this evening. Plenty of low-level moisture
will remain trapped as the nocturnal inversion and with very light
winds overnight this favors MVFR fog forming with pockets of dense
fog possible in locally favored areas such as KSTJ. Fog should lift
quickly after sunrise.
Could see weakening convection moving into far northwest very late
tonight. Shoudl be confined to far northwest MO if it makes it that
far. Otherwise, just convective debris cloudiness spilling across
northern and west central MO.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Earlier upstream convection associated with MCV dissipated over east
central KS as it moved into a stable environment. Could still see
some isolated afternoon convection and PoPs adjusted lower to reflect
this. Minor adjustments made to temperatures but earlier trend
towards cooler remains.
UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Several adjustments made to the short term portion of the forecast.
First, northeast boundary layer winds associated with weak surface
low over east central MO is maintaining wrap around stratus over much
of the CWA. Latest NAM/RUC low-level condensation pressure deficit
progs hold onto this cloud cover longer, most notably over the
northeastern CWA where it will likely remain cloudy all day. Convective
cloud debris tied to weakening convection moving across southern
KS/northern OK will affect at least the western CWA. In addition,
small cluster of low-topped convection moving towards east central KS
is associated with a MCV. 13Z HRRR just arriving and is starting to
pick up on this activity. Believe the convection will have some legs
and could make it into west central MO by around 18z. Have increased
PoPs over the far western CWA to account for this. Have also lowered
temperatures to account for increased cloud cover and precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Regional radars showing decaying MCS activity across central KS this
morning as a pair of shortwave disturbances crest a mid-level ridge
over the central Plains. Overall impact across our region will
likely be limited to residual cloud cover as high-res models suggest
activity will dissipate with further eastward progress. Closer to our
neck of the woods...boundary layer moisture trapped below nocturnal
inversion is leading to a fair amount of low stratus and fog across
the region this morning. As was the case yesterday...current low
clouds will delay daytime heating to some degree which will help
keep high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon...some
4-8 degrees below normal. Fcst models do develop some precipitation
across the area today...however with the only real forcing coming
from a weak shortwave later on...have decided to cap pops in the slgt
chc category.
For tonight...mostly dry conditions expected as sfc ridging from
parent high pressure positioned across the western Great Lakes
becomes firmly established across our region. Despite the passage of
a fairly decent shortwave...overall available moisture will be
limited thanks to the strengthening ridge axis. That said...cannot
totally rule out a stray shwr or two and this have kept slgt chc pops
going for areas south of I-70.
Nebulous wx pattern to continue right into Sat with sfc ridging
remaining in control. This feature should deflect best chances for
precip south of the region as ridge axis continues to sharpen with
time through the day. As a result...have maintained a dry fcst with
highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Fcst becomes a bit more interesting come Sun/Sun Ngt as a high
building south from the western Canada nudges a central High Plains
low east with time. As this occurs...shortwave energy will translate
southeast from the northern Plains which will ultimately provide
increasing mid-level forcing for ascent by Sunday night. From this
vantage point...return moisture looks be be fairly limited thanks for
a limited low-level jet response...however enough lingering moisture
should be in place to help initiate redeveloping shwr/storm activity
Sunday night/early Monday. Lingering precip will exit stage right
Monday afternoon with high pressure set to arrive early Tuesday.
Dry and tranquil wx expected through much of early next week as high
pressure remains in firm control. Expect below normal temps to
continue through much of the extended as northeasterly flow is
maintained as high pressure remains parked over the western Great
Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
MVFR cigs covering most of northern and west central MO will be slow
to clear from west to east this afternoon. Good chance northeast MO
will remain in MVFR inot this evening. Plenty of low-level moisture
will remain trapped as the nocturnal inversion and with very light
winds overnight this favors MVFR fog forming with pockets of dense
fog possible in locally favored areas such as KSTJ. Fog should lift
quickly after sunrise.
Could see weakening convection moving into far northwest very late
tonight. Shoudl be confined to far northwest MO if it makes it that
far. Otherwise, just convective debris cloudiness spilling across
northern and west central MO.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Short range guidance depicting some variability with remnants of
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma MCS, most notably the HRRR which
maintains a northeast development. This solution is at odds with
RUC and 12z NAM and discounted due to observed trends. Question
then becomes maintenance into this afternoon as the weakening
front descends into Arkansas. Have updated to bump POPs up a bit
over far se Kansas and far sw Missouri during the late morning
into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop
along a stalled boundary across southern Missouri early this
morning. This was mainly in response to the upper level wave that was
making slow eastward progress over the past 24 hours. This feature
is expected to shift east of the region this morning with
diminishing coverage of rain.
The rain potential may increase later today however as a storm
complex over central Kansas continues to make steady progression
eastward. This complex is associated with another upper level
short wave. Models have advertised a weakening of the northern
extent of the complex with the main area of the system diving
south of the Ozarks later today. This may still happen, however,
with the current track of the system and the lack of noticeable
deterioration, have included some rain chances for today and into
tonight. If the system starts to behave more in line with what the
models expect, will need to modify the going forecast. For now
though, the system looks to be able to hold together long enough
that is should make it to the Ozarks.
Chances for additional rainfall will remain in the forecast
through tonight as a result of several weak shortwaves continuing
to break down the upper level ridge that had been in place the
earlier this week. This flatter flow, along with the weak short
waves, will interact with the rather moist air mass in place to
continue the chance for scattered showers and storms through the
overnight hours into early Saturday morning.
The transition from upper ridge to northwest flow and expected
cloud cover will also bring slight cooler daytime highs.
Afternoon highs for this time of year normally run around 90
degrees. At this point, am only expecting highs to climb near 90
in very far southwestern Missouri with cooler reading across
central Missouri in the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
A northwest flow pattern, unusual for this time of year will
persist through this upcoming weekend and into early next week and
provide several chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact
the Ozarks region. This will also bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the area with daytime highs only expected to be
in the 80s for most of the region through next week.
The upper level ridge will attempt to move back over the region
late next week. However, models show another short wave moving
out of the Pacific Northwest and knocking the ridge down once more
and bringing additional chances for rain and storms for late next
week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
Weak High Pressure will dominate Southwestern Missouri into early
this evening. The latest in a series of weak upper level
disturbances will track through the area tonight and bring the
risk of some shower activity to the area with the chance of
embedded thunderstorms at BBG and JLN. Included a brief period of
IFR at SGF due to ceilings and visibility and for visibility only
at BBG and JLN as abundant ambient low level moisture and clearing
or partially clearing skies will bring a decent possibility of
early morning fog or low stratus formation. Expect any fog or low
stratus to burn off an hour or so after sunrise due to rapid
morning warming.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Colucci
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
251 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THESE RATHER WELL
AND SO TRENDED POPS AND WEATHER TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE. EXPECT AREAL
COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WILL NEED FOR NIGHT SHIFT TO
CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR A TIME SATURDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR INCREASING WINDS. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER TO HOLD OFF AS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN
JUST SHY. NAM BUFKIT SOLUTIONS AND LATEST GFS GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE LAKE WIND CRITERIA BEING REACHED BUT AS A WHOLE GUIDANCE
IS COMING UP SHORT. DO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR NOW EXPECT NORTHERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE LAKE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS MORE
CLEARLY AS MESOSCALE MODELS CAN BETTER DEPICT THE NEAR TERM
EXPECTATIONS.
DRIER AND CONTINUED COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CWA. THE 08/12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
STARTING TO FORM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THESE
DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM ON THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. IF THE TROUGH CAN DIG DEEPLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS AND TRANSLATE FURTHER EAST A
LITTLE BIT SOONER...SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ACROSS PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN
GARFIELD. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW LARGELY STANDS. THE ONLY TWEAK
WAS TO TREND SKY WIND AND TEMPS TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A
STRONG AND LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE TUESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EXPECTING A DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA.
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES OUR CWA AND
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE FROM THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE THEIR WAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BUT COVERAGE AND
IMPACT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN
FACT...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC MODEL PERSISTS ON HOLDING ONTO A STALLED UPPER LOW
JUST ON SHORE FROM THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY QUICK
IN ADVANCING THIS LOW/TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...PULLING THE MODELS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.
EXTENDED FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW BEYOND
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN AT LEAST BE APPROACHED.
FOR NOW...CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST...ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPSIS: AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KOLF AND KGGW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
WINDS AND PUSH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EASTWARD TOWARD KSDY AND
KGDV ON SATURDAY.
CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CUMULUS BUILDUPS.
WINDS: SOUTHERLY AT 4-8KTS...GOING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING AT 15 TO 20KTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
157 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATE THE ONGOING MCS
WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND REACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NCNTL ZONES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SPC SUGGESTED. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA LOOKS VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. THE RAP
MODEL MAINTAINS BETTER FORCING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NCNTL
ZONES WITH THE LEFT FRONT PORTION OF 500 TO 300 MB WIND MAX
POSITIONED THERE.
THE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SATURDAY SEES AN ELONGATE AND SHALLOW
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SOME LINGER SHOWERS PUSH EAST IN THE
MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME SUN WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 80S...THEN MODELS BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL HELP MOISTEN/SUSTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...HOWEVER WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT
DO TO RECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGER WAVES.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO RIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING...HOWEVER FORECAST FAVORS
A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. TEMPS SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD
TREND...WITH SOME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE KVTN TAF SITE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT IN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT.
AT 330 AM...WSR-88D WAS INDICATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE WITH THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE 750-800 MB LAYER.
THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH DAWN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...CALLING INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE
CURRENT EXPANSION OF OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINGS START TO DIE OUT. THE 06Z HRRR IS LARGELY DRY FROM
SUNRISE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING.
THE NMM AND ARW WRF MODELS DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AM NOT YET READY TO BITE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CHANGE MY MIND.
ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF
THIS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN THAT PROMOTES SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND PULSE TYPE STORMS...FELT THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND HAVE THUS REDUCED POPS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 0-6 KM OF 20-30 KTS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LASTING
CONVECTION AND THE STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH MAKING IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
COVER MUCH REAL ESTATE. HOWEVER...THOSE AREAS THAT CAN CATCH A
THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE BENEFICIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTION BUT YOUR NEIGHBOR A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD
MIGHT MISS OUT...ITS THAT KIND OF PATTERN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SEEM
LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SET UP FOR NOW. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
TODAY SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL GO WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE SHAKY...BUT MOST MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT DECREASING CHANCES BY
LATE EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM WHEN IT
COMES TO OVERNIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND WILL GO FROM SCATTERED WORDING IN THE
EVENING TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SPEAK OF FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE
OVERVIEW OF POPS...THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES
TO CARRY VARIOUS 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF 40-50 POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CAME CLOSE TO INTRODUCING SOME 60
PERCENT LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
DIFFICULTY OF PRECIP FORECASTING IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THINGS GET INTO THE SHORTER TERM
12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME TO GIVEN THE IMPRESSION THAT ANYTHING IS
"LIKELY". BEYOND MONDAY DAYTIME...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TRENDING
TOWARD NO LONGER NEEDING POPS ACROSS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...DID
MAINTAIN A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME...BEFORE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS RE- ENTER THE PICTURE
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACTUALLY CONSIDERED REDUCING
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME POPS TO "SILENT" 10 PERCENT TERRITORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCES WERE JUST
INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM AS-
IS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE JUST IN CASE MODELS TREND BACK THE OTHER
WAY AGAIN.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS SEASONABLY-TYPICAL...ONE OF THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR ONLY AVERAGING NEAR/BELOW 30KT. OFFICIALLY...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDED A SLIVER OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL-BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. AT LEAST LIMITED PARTS OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES MAINLY DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST TWEAKS
TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR
LOWS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S EACH MORNING. FOR HIGH
TEMPS...THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS
WHERE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP
COULD EASILY RESULT IN 5+ DEGREE ERRORS...BUT IN GENERAL A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL REGIME FOR MID-AUGUST LOOKS TO PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY-
THURSDAY...WITH MOST NEB ZONES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT LOW-MID 80S AND
KS ZONES MORE SO MID-80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS LOOK
TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODESTLY-HUMID FEEL IN THE
AIR...BUT NOTHING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE BY AUGUST STANDARDS EITHER.
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO SOME DEGREE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AT LEAST
LIGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF SOMEWHAT
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF LIGHT BREEZES AND THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
SUPPORT OF AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF FOG FORMATION PER 00Z MET/MAV
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO TOSS IN ANOTHER
GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING OVER
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-36
HOURS TIME FRAMES...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
AWHILE NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN POP TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
24-48 HOUR RANGE. VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE SAME...PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL CONTINUE...MEANING THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND FAIRLY
SUBTLE ZONES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN
THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER. STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE
GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE 06Z NAM PORTRAYS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOOK
OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW RUNS. AS
A RESULT...SUSPECT THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAY...STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AS THE AREA GENERALLY LIES IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE SOME SPOTTY LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LASTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT 20 POP IN ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE THE ENTIRE AREA COULD
STAY STORM-FREE...AND IN FACT KEPT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN
ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...BRING A SOLID ZONE OF 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A PASSING
MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD KEEP HALFWAY DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAKENING
STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A
POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR DAYTIME POPS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST 30-50 CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST IN EASTERN
ZONES...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 20S IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE
CANDIDATES FOR FUTURE REMOVAL OF SUNDAY NIGHT POPS.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE EXPANDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHUNTS THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WELL OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY...WHILE LEAVING THE NIGHT
PRECIP-FREE.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DESPITE SOME HINTS IN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS
RUNS OF BRINGING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BACK INTO WESTERN
ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PROVIDE LIMITED
LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36 HOURS BRINGS VARIOUS 20-
30 PERCENT POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS
RANGE FOCUSED ON WED NIGHT-THURS AND MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO. EVEN PER THE ECMWF...AND AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS MAY BE A FUTURE CANDIDATE FOR
REMOVAL OF SLIGHT POPS FROM MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH A VCTS OR PASSING SHOWER POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM AROUND
08/22Z-09/04Z. THEREAFTER...FOCUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN TO FOG
POTENTIAL...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR FOG LYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY 09/14Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
CU FIELD FORMING AS TEMPS NEAR 80. MAIN CAPE AS MENTIONED EARLIER
FROM WRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ND AND STILL SUNNY THIS AREA BUT
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST THERE SO DO EXPECT TCU TO START FORMING
SOON AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP FAR NW ND INTO SASK-WRN MB. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM PSBL IN CU FIELD IN FCST AREA BUT ATTM
TOO LOW TO MENTION. ACTIVITY IN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTH BUT SO
FAR VERY ISOLATED AND THICKER CLOUD COVER THERE SO INSTABILITY
LOWER. OVERALL THOUGH FOR COORDINATION DID MAINTAIN A LOW POP IN
FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. REMOVED IN FAR NORTH AS MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO RE-ADJUST FARTHER NORTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPDATED SKY COVER A BIT THRU SATURDAY TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OTHERWISE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES INSTABILY REMAINS IN
ACHORED IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO WRN
ND...WITH SECOND CORE IN FAR SOUTHERN SD/NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FAR NORTH AS ANY CONVECTION IN MANITOBA MAY MAKE A RUN AT
NRN VALLEY. KEPT FAR FAR SRN VALLEY WITH LOW POPS MID AFTN-EVE AS
WELL THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATER IN THIS 84
HOUR PERIOD. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUN. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHT FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SD FRI NIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO WATER VAPOR LOO
INDICATED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OVER SOUTHWEST
MAN. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE NORTH TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR SAT AND SUN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
NORTH FOR TODAY. TWEAKED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOR MON THROUGH THU...EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/WEAK FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON THU. MOST OF THE OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR NEXT
THU...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE TRAVERSING
THROUGH IOWA AND THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS WISCONSIN.
A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S...REACHING THE 60S OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND COOLER SPOTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AND
IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH DEWPOINT RECOVERY TAKES PLACE...AND IF THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE STAY DOWN.
FOR SATURDAY...PLAN ON MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AT THE SURFACE...THE GREATER MOISTURE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINN/IOWA SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S...KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS
COMFORTABLE. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM LOW/MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE MORE SUN/MIXING IS EXPECTED...TO MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE WEST UNDER MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED TO THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. PRECIPITABLE
WATER OFF THE 08.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN A WEAK CAP ENVIRONMENT...POP UP AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES WEST OF A ROCHESTER TO CHARLES CITY LINE FOR
SUNDAY.
08.12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS CYCLES AGREEMENT OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST...GENERATING A MODEST AMOUNT OF
500-300 MB PV ADVECTION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED BUT WITH DEWPOINTS PEGGED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S...MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...AND AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY LACKING...UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND LESS THAN 15 KTS SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TRENDING
HIGHER...INCREASED POPS TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
DIFFERENCES CREEP UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE AREA DRY WITH GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE BUT THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND
REAL PATTERN SIGNALS...SLIGHT CHANCES IN A MODEL CONSENSUS LOOK
GOOD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
BLOCKED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES UNDER THE REX BLOCK WEAK DEFORMATION AREA
WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST FEEDING
INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL KEEP BULK OF CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST.
EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH WEAK
FLOW COULD SEE PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AT THE KLSE AIRFIELD...BUT
DID OPT TO INCLUDE BCFG. LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND
EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. FAIR WEATHER CU HAS POPPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE LOCATION OF
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD CONDITIONS.
WENT WITH THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH LAST NIGHTS TEMPS
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.
SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT INTO
MINNESOTA. SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ALONG TYPICAL DIURNAL CU FORMATION AROUND MIDDAY. BUT
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSHING
THE MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH
TOMORROW SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN FALL BACK TO PERHAPS 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUESDAY...AS PRONOUNCED RIDGING DEV LOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY WHATS LEFT OF THIS DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THEN AS SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
CORE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET IN CONCERT WITH SOME LATE DAY
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 18Z MONDAY
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PRECIPITATION COULD HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE...PERHAPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RATHER
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STILL BE UNDER PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF
WEAK IMPULSES DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ADD ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY SATURDAY...WE
WILL HAVE GREAT FLYING WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC