Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NERN SONORA WITH
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH THE BULK OF CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS PER THE 05/20Z RUC HRRR SOLUTION. CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT.
DRY GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL WED-THUR AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. VARIOUS 05/12Z NWP MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WED VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INHERITED POPS WERE REDUCED SOMEWHAT...FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR THUR...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR SE OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-SAFFORD-SIERRA VISTA
LINE.
THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 05/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING THE TIMING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL RETURN TO SE AZ. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM FAVORED FRI
AS A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...THE
ECMWF FAVORED SAT...AND THIS VERSION OF THE GFS DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL SUN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A GRADUAL DAILY INCREASE IN SHOWERS/
TSTMS FRI-SUN. THUS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUN. A FAIRLY DEEP GENERALLY SELY FLOW
REGIME IS PROGGED TO OCCUR MON-TUE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CENTERED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD THE DAILY CYCLE OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO EXIST TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
MON-TUE.
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL DAILY COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THUR-
SAT FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 7/00Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE FAR SE AZ/FAR SW NEW MEXICO BORDER
EAST OF KDUG ENDING AROUND 06/03Z. ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY AT 8-12K FT AGL EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 60S F. THESE
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 5-15 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE
TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS THIS TIME MON.
05/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER WAS 0.78 INCH...AND THIS
VALUE WAS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. 05/12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AND A WEAK TROUGH WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT GENERALLY
WLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.
05/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND 05/14Z RUC HRRR WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING A FEW PRECIP ECHOES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY. BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY REGIME...ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POP/WEATHER
FIELDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...PLEASE REFER TO
THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 6/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 214 AM MST/...BY THURSDAY THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL TAP INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. IN ADDITION...
DISTURBANCES MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
ACTIVITY. SO...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH BASICALLY SCATTERED TYPE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BACK TO AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNINGS...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
939 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES A WEAK ROUGE CELL NEAR MONUMENT HILL
TRACKING EAST...AND MAY CLIP THE COUNTY BOUNDARY THROUGH 11 PM.
MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CURRENTLY...
WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS INITIATING SOME CONVECTION OVER KIOWA COUNTY AT 2 PM.
GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50 WINDS WERE FROM A WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT
WHILE WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTH OF 50.
OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR MTNS...IT HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A
BIT WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DRIER ALOFT AS CLOUDS ARE NOTICEABLY MUCH LESS
ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF US-50.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WALDO BURN
SCAR. HRRR SHOWING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
C MTNS...GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS THIS AREA IN EARLIER UPDATES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING
NOT LIKELY OVER BURN SCARS...ONE HEAVY SHOWER IN THE WRONG PLACE CAN
EASILY CAUSE PROBLEMS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AS 60 DWPTS CURRENTLY IN
SW NEB ARE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THE GREATER KIOWA COUNTY REGION. NAM GUIDANCE HAS SOME PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT THIS REGION BUT IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE.
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE MTNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD AND HIGH
VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND HAVE POPS DRAWN UP
EVERYWHERE OVER THE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND AREA WILL LIKELY BE FEELING THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OVER E UTAH. CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIATE AROUND ITS NORMAL TIME OVER THE MTNS (NOONISH) AND THEN
INCREASE AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
OVER C MTNS...PIKES PEAK AREA AND FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FLOODING THREAT ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY. STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED TOMORROW DUE TO A BIT
BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES. AN ISOLD SVR STORM CANT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF THE MCS WHICH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OUTFLOW. OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO MOST MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MOVES TO THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA...BUT THERE IS THREAT FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. POPS GRIDS KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THESE
REGIONS FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. CANNOT
GET VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
OUTFLOW FROM MCS...BUT HUNCH IS OUTFLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN MOST
MODELS SUGGEST. IF THIS IS THE CASE...LOW LEVELS COULD BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW LEVELS
ARE TOO CLOUDY OR COOL...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE STABLE ON THE PLAINS.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCATTERED POPS MAINLY ALONG PALMER DIVIDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. NAM12 HAS A POTENT AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY...AND CAPES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ARE OVER 2000 J/KG. THINK
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...MONSOON PLUME IS MOSTLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST
WITH THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER COLORADO. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START BRINGING MORE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. POPS INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD CONTINUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF A
PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING
AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MORE SUBTLE
FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE A DECREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MID WEEK FOR A DECREASED
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE. LIKELY STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...BUT
PATTERN CHANGES SUGGESTS LOWER COVERAGE WITH LESS INTENSITY.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER KCOS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.
FOR KPUB AND KALS...VFR NEXT 24. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA OVER THESE TWO SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE PUSHING
NORTHEAST. SOME CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING BETWEEN A THIRD TO A
HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 15-30 MINUTES...WITH STRONGER
CELLS PRODUCING OVER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A CURRENT PW
VALUES HOVERING ABOUT AN INCH RIGHT NOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO START
LOWERING AS DRIER AIR...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PUSHING EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOVEMENT ON THESE STORMS
ARE AROUND 15 KTS...SO FLOOD THREAT AT THIS POINT IS THERE IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL AREA WIDE IS LOW. TRAINING STORMS COULD
CREATE A PROBLEM. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WITH ANOTHER THREAT UP
OVER LARIMER COUNTY AS CONVECTION IS FORMING A TRAINING LINE.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE STORMS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THERE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY OUT EAST TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA
BORDER...WHERE STORMS OUT HERE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
FOR SMALL HAIL...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE STRENGTH STORM THREAT IS
LOW.
AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT UPWARD TO LIGHT DOWNWARD. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE
HINTS FROM THE HIRES RAP MODEL THAT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY PUSH BACK INTO COLORADO TONIGHT TO KEEP
CONVECTION GOING....AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN
WITH CURRENT STRENGTH AND MOTION OF THE STORMS OUT THERE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW WITH DRIER PW VALUES
EXPECTED. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS STABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WITH MORE SUNLIGHT EXPECTED TOMORROW HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO NEARLY
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY. LESS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES IN AND
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH
FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS TAIL END OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A
GREELEY TO DENVER LINE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR
ANY FOG APPEARS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS. ON THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A BIT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. CENTER OF THE HIGH TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
PLAINS TO PROVIDE UPSLOPE IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...
TAIL END OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THUS...
SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE NORTHEAST
OF GREELEY AND DENVER WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE
MOST AREAS. LATEST MODELS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SORT OF
MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE EVENING...PUSHING INTO
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR
FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. OTHERWISE... MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER
WEST... MAINLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR PLAINS. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ELONGATED UPPER HIGH
OVER COLORADO WITH THE CENTER OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. APPEARS A
BATCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. FLOW ALOFT
TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY...WITH MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS GOING MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONVECTION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA AIRPORTS
THROUGH ABOUT 24Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRODUCING
VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NEEDING INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN FOR A SHORT TIME. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN
TO DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED
TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER 18Z TO TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...UP TO HALF AN INCH IN 15 MINUTES...WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS THAT MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH AS TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING LOW...EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF TRAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER A
BURN SCAR OR STEEP TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH MID
EVENING AND SHOULD BE DONE BY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SCATTERED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FLOODING APPEARS LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1107 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FOR
THE STORMS TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA BURN SCARS. SATELLITE
SOUNDER DATA AND MODELS CONTINUE TO MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MOSTLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO ONE INCH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE PLAINS.
.TONIGHT...HRRR AND 4KM NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS IT THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...BECOMING
MORE CAPPED FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST DURING THE EVENING...AND MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. HRRR SUGGESTS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...AS SEEN IN
CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WILL PASS MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING REACHING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
ONLY MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AT 06Z.
.TUESDAY...PORTION OF SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER NEVADA WILL CROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OVER THE MAINS AND 0.75 TO ONE INCH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN MONDAY. MAIN THREATS AGAIN
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS..ESPECIALLY ON AREA BURN SCARS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
FASTER. BEHIND THE TROUGH...DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BY LATER AFTERNOON. -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
TUE NIGHT...
DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD POPS (AT BEST) OVER
THE CONTDVD.
WED...
SHOULD BE A RATHER DRY DAY AS DRIER AIR IS FCST TO BE OVER THE MTNS
WITH THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE CREEPING INTO THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...RIDGING AT MIDLVLS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION.
BELIEVE POPS THIS DAT WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST...AND WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHEST TRRN. MAX TEMPS THIS DAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THU...
THIS DAY WILL BE TRICKY. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH WILL IT GET? GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NE CO...WHILE NAM AND EC ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING DOWN INTO EAST CENTRAL CO. FOR NOW HAVE
PAINTED ISOLD POPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MAY NEED HIGHER POPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS IN LATER
UPDATES. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE AROUND 90F THIS DAY.
MTNS SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLD POPS.
FRI...
EC AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT THIS DAY. BOTH BRING DOWN ANOTHER
BOUNDARY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. GFS APPEARS MORE STABLE AND KEEPS WX
DRIER OVER OUR REGION WHILE EC A BIT MORE WETTER OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS. FOR NOW KEPT ONLY ISOLD POPS OVER E PLAINS WITH ISOLD PRECIP
OVER S MTN TOPS. REST OF MTNS DRY. MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOUT 90F
MOST OF PLAINS.
WEEKEND...
SIMULATIONS SHOW A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ALL AREAS AS MONSOON
PLUME WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER THE SW...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM E AZ AND W NM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
KEEPING -SHRA/-TSRA GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
PASSING -SHRA COULD AFFECT THE KALS TAF SITE TOMORROW MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AN LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD A STRONGER STORM AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLED IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE EARLIER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED. THIS STORM PRODUCED WIND
DAMAGE NEAR HEWITT`S LANDING.
MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT (ENHANCING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE) AND THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT) ...CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EAST.
IT LOOKS AS IF THIS AREA OF RAIN MIGHT STAY JUST FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST HRRR HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH ALL OF THE
EVENING...INCLUDING THUNDER.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AROUND 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES OVER 6.0 C/KM...AND
ALREADY HISTORY OF ONE DAMAGING WIND THUNDERSTORM AND SMALL
HAIL...WE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED QUALIFIER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING..."MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL."
SO THROUGH EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(MEANING NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT SOME
AREAS GET A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY). IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...COOLING TO THE 70S LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAINFALL COOLS THE COLUMN.
THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ALL
TOGETHER AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING (THE JET EXIT REGION) LIFTS NORTH
AND INSTABILITY DISSIPATES.
THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO FORM.
HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT THIS.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG TONIGHT PENDING HOW MUCH
RAINFALLS AND MAKES THE GROUND WET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST AND
LOWER 60S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEWAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AS SOON AS WE GET HEATING...MAINLY MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALBANY NORTH...LOW CHANCES SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION...WENT WITH THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (MORE CLOUDS
SOUTH).
ANY AND ALL CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. DID PUT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE WIND LOOKS CALMER AND
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO 50S.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL WORK THROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ISOLATED CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD.
THE DAY WILL START OUT MAINLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS AND THE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...MAYBE A POINT OR TWO LOWER.
IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME RATHER COOL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO
UPPER 40S FURTHER NORTH.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER WEATHER WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY (FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER
CU) AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE LAST DAY...THIS WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE
ROOST THROUGHOUT. ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT FROM MOSTLY THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE VALLEYS. FOR THIS PERIOD...NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S...NORMAL LOWS...AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE MVFR/IFR FOG RETURNS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED SPAWN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5-7 KFT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS WITH TEMPO
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES
WILL CLEAR ALLOWING FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TO RETURN TO THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS FROM ANY
CONVECTION.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL TREND CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5
KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING...WITH ABOUT
HALF THE PLACES RECEIVING A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...BUT
AREAS NOT RECEIVING ANY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL STILL BE WORKING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT AND RH VALUES GENERALLY
35-45 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW
MOVING...AND BACKBUILDING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH PER HOUR. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WITH THESE TYPE OF STORMS...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOMORROW BUT ANY EXCESS RAINFALL WILL
PROBABLY BE EVEN MORE LIMITED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH ON THURSDAY...GENERALLY WITH AN AVERAGE
RAINFALL BASIN OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE BERTHA PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST DURING
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
MONITORING BOTH KENX AND KOKX RADARS...SAW A LONELY SHOWER MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO CENTRAL NH BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z.
ALSO SEE A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ALONG DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTING LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AND POSSIBLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT...BUT AGAIN WILL MONITOR.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN STEADILY SINCE SUNRISE...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT 15Z...UP TO 84 AT KFIT. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE CLOSE TO
FORECASTED TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BERTHA TO THE SE WHILE A BROAD-TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR /H85-H3/ BETWEEN THE TWO
COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H3 JET SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND INTO AFTERNOON. BUT
WITH THE WESTERN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD H5 TROUGH...EXPECT THE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ENHANCED ASCENT ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W MA / CT AND SW NH. COULD ALSO SEE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
CONSIDERING INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR...ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
NOTING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG
WITH A COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...
FEEL THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
THE MID-80S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE MID-60S. COOLER ALONG
THE SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO S NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS N/W INTERIOR...WEAKENING OVER TIME WITH THE
LACK OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FALLING HEIGHTS / CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE
COASTLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOUPY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-60S MAINTAINED
BY SW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW-CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF S/SE NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SHORELINES. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP AREAS
OF THE N/W INTERIOR FOG-FREE. LOWS NW-SE RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S TO
UPPER-60S.
WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY...IGNORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN. BELIEVE THE OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
MAINLY ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SWEEPS
THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL BROAD TROUGH...FALLING HEIGHTS ARE
INVOKED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H3 CYCLONIC JET...MID-
LEVEL ENHANCED ASCENT...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF A SOUPY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
PREVAILS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS S/E INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INCORPORATING E MA AND RI.
ASSUMING INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE MET IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF AVERAGE 30 KT W-E UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD YIELD
ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. PWATS RANGE 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES. ONCE AGAIN...NOTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG WITH A
COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...FEEL
THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/. A GREATER THREAT OF
URBAN FLOODING IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SHOULD STORMS PERPETUATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MORE S/E WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-70S. COOLER AND DRIER N/W THOUGH LOW-80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER CT-VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REACHING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. TOTALS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID 50S...WITH A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 875 AND 825 MB. EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM A LITTLE FRIDAY BUT SIMILAR MOIST LAYER ALOFT. EXPECT
DIURNAL CLOUDS FRIDAY BUT WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MIXING TO 850
MB THURSDAY AND AT LEAST 825 MB FRIDAY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY. GFS SUGGESTS SEA BREEZE
EACH DAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO CONFLICT WITH THIS THURSDAY
BUT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF SUPPORTS SEA BREEZES BOTH DAYS
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT
LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE COAST.
TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL AND SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIR
WEATHER DAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM RACES OUT TO SEA
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OUR WAY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT LOCAL MVFR-IFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS KACK THROUGH 18Z OR SO. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAINLY W-SW. SEA
BREEZES FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DISSIPATING AROUND 3Z ACROSS INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND.
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY FOR S/E NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINES.
WEDNESDAY...
MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS DISSIPATE. SEA-BREEZES AROUND 15Z BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR E/SE MA AND ALL OF RI.
ACTIVITY FURTHER W POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SEA BREEZE THROUGH
22Z-23Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY THURSDAY.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AS BERTHA MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
S/SE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE.
THE DELAY IN SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY WILL LIMIT THE RIP
CURRENT RISK...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VSBYS AGAIN BELOW 1SM IN SOME AREAS MAINLY S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LINGERING CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FROM TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. IT APPEARS OUR CAP
MIGHT BE BREAKING ALREADY. THE BUF RAOB INDICATED LESS CAPPING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT BEGINS COOLING OFF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STORMS COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER ON.
WE WERE FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING TOWARD EXTREME
SW NY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE WOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
MAKE INTO OUR REGION AROUND 00Z-02Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT. THIS IDEA WAS
NOT SUPPORT BY LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS NOR THE LOCAL HIRESWRF. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT.
THE CLUSTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WILL MAKE IT INTO A PORTION OF
AREA THIS EVENING...ASSUMING IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE THREAT WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0
C/KM...AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE MVFR/IFR FOG RETURNS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED SPAWN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5-7 KFT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS WITH TEMPO
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES
WILL CLEAR ALLOWING FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TO RETURN TO THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS FROM ANY
CONVECTION.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL TREND CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5
KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
0100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. IT APPEARS OUR CAP
MIGHT BE BREAKING ALREADY. THE BUF RAOB INDICATED LESS CAPPING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT BEGINS COOLING OFF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STORMS COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER ON.
WE WERE FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING TOWARD EXTREME
SW NY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE WOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
MAKE INTO OUR REGION AROUND 00Z-02Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT. THIS IDEA WAS
NOT SUPPORT BY LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS NOR THE LOCAL HIRESWRF. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT.
THE CLUSTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WILL MAKE IT INTO A PORTION OF
AREA THIS EVENING...ASSUMING IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE THREAT WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0
C/KM...AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW RADIATION FOG IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VARIOUS WEB CAMS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD
BE GONE FROM THE TAF SITES BY 13Z EXCEPT KPSF WHERE IT MAY LINGER
UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 19Z
OR 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TAF SITES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1231 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...ONE SHOWER BRIEFLY POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY...WHILE A FEW MORE OVER THE CATSKILLS. WE BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE MORE RANDOM POP UP SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO
THE THUNDERSTORMS. OUR ALY RAOB INDICATED WE WERE CAPPED SO
INITIALLY CELLS SHOULD NOT GROW THAT TALL. HOWEVER...THE BUF RAOB
INDICATED LESS CAPPING AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT BEGINS COOLING OFF
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER ON.
WE WERE FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING TOWARD EXTREME
SW NY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE WOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
MAKE INTO OUR REGION AROUND 00Z-02Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT. THIS IDEA WAS
NOT SUPPORT BY LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS NOR THE LOCAL HIRESWRF. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT.
THE CLUSTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WILL MAKE IT INTO A PORTION OF
AREA THIS EVENING...ASSUMING IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE THREAT WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0
C/KM...AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW RADIATION FOG IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VARIOUS WEB CAMS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD
BE GONE FROM THE TAF SITES BY 13Z EXCEPT KPSF WHERE IT MAY LINGER
UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 19Z
OR 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TAF SITES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1112 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE BERTHA PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
MONITORING BOTH KENX AND KOKX RADARS...SAW A LONELY SHOWER MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO CENTRAL NH BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z.
ALSO SEE A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ALONG DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTING LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AND POSSIBLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT...BUT AGAIN WILL MONITOR.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN STEADILY SINCE SUNRISE...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT 15Z...UP TO 84 AT KFIT. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE CLOSE TO
FORECASTED TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BERTHA TO THE SE WHILE A BROAD-TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR /H85-H3/ BETWEEN THE TWO
COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H3 JET SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND INTO AFTERNOON. BUT
WITH THE WESTERN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD H5 TROUGH...EXPECT THE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ENHANCED ASCENT ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W MA / CT AND SW NH. COULD ALSO SEE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
CONSIDERING INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR...ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
NOTING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG
WITH A COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...
FEEL THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
THE MID-80S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE MID-60S. COOLER ALONG
THE SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO S NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS N/W INTERIOR...WEAKENING OVER TIME WITH THE
LACK OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FALLING HEIGHTS / CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE
COASTLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOUPY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-60S MAINTAINED
BY SW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW-CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF S/SE NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SHORELINES. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP AREAS
OF THE N/W INTERIOR FOG-FREE. LOWS NW-SE RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S TO
UPPER-60S.
WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY...IGNORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN. BELIEVE THE OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
MAINLY ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SWEEPS
THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL BROAD TROUGH...FALLING HEIGHTS ARE
INVOKED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H3 CYCLONIC JET...MID-
LEVEL ENHANCED ASCENT...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF A SOUPY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
PREVAILS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS S/E INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INCORPORATING E MA AND RI.
ASSUMING INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE MET IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF AVERAGE 30 KT W-E UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD YIELD
ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. PWATS RANGE 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES. ONCE AGAIN...NOTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG WITH A
COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...FEEL
THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/. A GREATER THREAT OF
URBAN FLOODING IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SHOULD STORMS PERPETUATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MORE S/E WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-70S. COOLER AND DRIER N/W THOUGH LOW-80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER CT-VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
05.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM IN SPITE OF THE FACT CONDITIONS FAVOR A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. BASE OF A LONGWAVE
TROF WITH HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THU. THANKFULLY THE ORIENTATION AND
MOVEMENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE BOTH THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA AND
ITS MOISTURE WELL E OF NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING THE DRIER AIR FROM
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD. FOLLOWING
THIS TROF...THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD FAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE N CONUS AS DEEPENING TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...A BLEND OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
DETAILS...
THU INTO FRI...
ALTHOUGH SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY THU...ACUTE VORT MAX WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND LINGERING INTO FRI. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
VERY LOW H5 HEIGHTS AND TEMPS APPROACHING -18C. THEREFORE...WITH A
FOCUS FOR LIFT AND SOME MID LVL DESTABILIZATION
/MU CAPE VALUES MAY REACH AROUND 500J/KG IN SPOTS ON THU...SLIGHTLY
LOWER ON FRI/ MAY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST LIKELY TO SEE A DECK
OF SCT-BKN CU FOR EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH SOME
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS FRI...WILL
FEATURE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THU THAN FRI. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT AND FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
50S IN SPOTS...LOW 60S IN NORMAL URBAN HEAT ISLANDS.
THIS COMING WEEKEND...
MID LVL RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ATTENDANT HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. +12C H85 TEMPS ON SAT FOLLOWED BY +14C ON SUN SUGGESTS
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SAT /HIGHS AROUND 80-LOW 80S/ AND SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL SUN /HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/.
MON INTO TUE...
SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO SHOW HERE...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING AND
DEPTH OF A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING E FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID LVL RIDGE HAS HIGH ENOUGH HEIGHTS
THAT IT SHOULD HOLD AS THE TROF DEEPENS TO KEEP AN PRECIP FROM A
SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WELL TO THE S. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THERE IS A PATTERN SHIFT AFOOT...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS WEE GO THROUGH WEEK. THE E SHIFT IN
THE SFC HIGH PRES SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT LOCAL MVFR-IFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS KACK THROUGH 18Z OR SO. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAINLY W-SW. SEA
BREEZES FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DISSIPATING AROUND 3Z ACROSS INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND.
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY FOR S/E NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINES.
WEDNESDAY...
MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS DISSIPATE. SEA-BREEZES AROUND 15Z BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR E/SE MA AND ALL OF RI.
ACTIVITY FURTHER W POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SEA BREEZE THROUGH
22Z-23Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME MIXED MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING
GIVES WAY TO SOME IMPROVEMENT EARLY THU MORNING.
THU INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...BUT THU AND FRI A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD IS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AS BERTHA MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
S/SE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE.
THE DELAY IN SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY WILL LIMIT THE RIP
CURRENT RISK...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VSBYS AGAIN BELOW 1SM IN SOME AREAS MAINLY S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LINGERING 5-6 FT SWELL FROM BERTHA
WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAY ON THU.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THU AS
THE SWELL SUBSIDES.
FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1047 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS
ANOTHER MUGGY AND WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH CU NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECTED...TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0 C/KM...AROUND
500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW RADIATION FOG IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VARIOUS WEB CAMS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD
BE GONE FROM THE TAF SITES BY 13Z EXCEPT KPSF WHERE IT MAY LINGER
UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 19Z
OR 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TAF SITES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
201 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN NEARING TMB.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH CANOPY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE KEYS.
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW MUCH THESE CLOUDS EFFECT TIMING OF ACTIVITY
TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW MEANS EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AT KAPF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE EAST COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL HAVE DEPARTED NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR POSSIBLY AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. STORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE GULF
COAST STILL LOOKS TO BE THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS THAN EARLIER. THE EAST COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE HRRR STILL SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF TEND TO KEEP
ANY PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE
KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
AVIATION...
DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING THREAT FOR CLOUDS AND TSRA AFT 14-16Z WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY NEAR KPBI SO PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN THEIR TAF FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V BECMG SW AT 5-10 KT AFT
14Z ALL SITES.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH COLLIER COUNTY`S COASTLINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA PREVAILS. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ABUNDANT AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WIND FLOW WILL THEN BECOME WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM THAT
POINT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BOTH COASTS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND
INTERACT ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
MARINE...
BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5-15 KTS THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WEAKER WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK BEFORE A
GENERAL SSE TO S FLOW IS PREVALENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 76 90 77 / 60 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 92 79 / 50 20 40 30
MIAMI 92 78 91 78 / 50 20 40 30
NAPLES 90 77 90 77 / 50 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS BEEN SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEEPENING A BIT AND GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
PAST 6 HRS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH NVA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND PREVENT SEVERE
THREAT. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE
MAIN CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE WARM TODAY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
BROAD WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
AIDED BY WEAK DOWNSLOPING FLOW. A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND
PWAT VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
MID 90S.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL YIELD WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT VALUES
RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REACHING AS HIGH AS 2.25-2.30 INCHES...WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND VERY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED FLOODING. HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A BIT LOWER BY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY THEN BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S SAT-
MON.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THE S SC COAST WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. AN E TO NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
SUCH...AND RECENT OBS NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPING. WILL EXPECT IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON VSBYS.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP POTENTIAL E/SE FORECAST AREA NEAR
OGB...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL REDUCE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PLUS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED THE EAST PART OF THE AREA
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT
INDICATE ADDITION SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME FOG
BUT THE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES LITTLE FOG. WE FORECASTED PATCHY FOG.
WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...FINALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL THEN FLATTEN OUT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WITH THIS PATTERN
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY. THE MAIN UPPER
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE
TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TUESDAY...AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S WEDNESDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN UPPER PATTER REMAINS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ALIGN WITH THE STALLED
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT FORM WEST ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT THAT CHANCE POPS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
EAST. PWATS BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GFS BEGINS TO SHOW A SURFACE
WEDGE FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THE S SC COAST WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. AN E TO NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
SUCH...AND RECENT OBS NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPING. WILL EXPECT IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON VSBYS.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP POTENTIAL E/SE FORECAST AREA NEAR
OGB...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL REDUCE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
207 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1013 AM CDT
NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO TRAP THIS
MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE MADE NO
CHANGES TO GOING HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT DID SLOW THE
TEMP RISE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
CLOUDINESS. ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
DO NOT SHOW ANY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...MODIFYING THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING FOR
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS YIELDS SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF
MLCAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...SO STILL POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
* TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A VERY SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR STL TO GYY TO
DET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THIS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER STILL CONTINUING AT A
FEW AIRPORTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT AND EVEN SCATTER BY LATER IN THE DAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED AT
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES...HELPED BY A MESOSCALE INCREASE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE AND A SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST PUSH. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN SPEED TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE LOW
FOR MIDDAY DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS AFTER DARK. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS AT THIS TIME.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 21Z.
* HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FT.
* LOW IN MVFR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN WIND SPEEDS AND TIMING OF 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF/RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CDT
WEAK FLOW IS OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE
LAKE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST.
WINDS REMAIN EAST AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THE NEXT LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL WEAK FLOW CONTINUES WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
Will update the forecast today to adjust sky cover with more low
clouds from Peoria north today and cooler highs in the lower 80s.
Will continue 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over
eastern IL this afternoon. Seasonably warm highs in the mid 80s
over much of CWA with upper 80s near Lawrenceville and Robinson by
Wabash river valley. Rather humid today with dewpoints in the mid
60s to near 70F with lowest dewpoints in southeast IL.
Short wave that brought locally heavy rains of 1.5-3.5 inches
around the Peoria metro area last night has shifted east and south
of central IL late this morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms have exited southeast IL during mid morning so by
late morning ILX CWA is dry. Low clouds of 500-1200 feet from
Peoria north while patches of clouds above 3k ft over eastern IL
from I-57 east. 10 am temps range from near 70F far ne CWA by
Lacon and Danville where clouds prevail, to upper 70s from
Springfield sw where more sunshine this morning. Dewpoints range
from mid 60s over eastern IL to near 70F from Macomb to
Springfield west.
A frontal boundary just se of the IL river will continue to press
slowly se into southeast IL later today. Even though we are on
back side of short wave exiting se of IL today, the boundary could
develop isolated convection this afternoon as it pushes through
areas se of I-55. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms this afternoon
and into tonight over Nebraska and western IA and then has 5% risk
of severe hail/wind over central IL Wed afternoon/evening and
slight chance of severe storms (15% of large hail and damaging
wind gusts) sw of a Canton to Lincoln line.
HUETTL
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR ceilings to occur over central IL airports next few hours and
gradaully lift to VFR ceilings or even scattered out especially at
SPI and DEC. A frontal boundary near I-72 will slowly move into
southeast IL later this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
to occur over east central and se IL this afternoon with CMI and
DEC having best chances of seeing this, but feel chances are too
low to even mention VCTS. Another short wave diving se into IL
late tonight and Wed to likely return chances of showers and
thunderstorms starting at PIA at 10Z along I-55 from 11z-12Z and
DEC and CMI from 13-14Z. Have MVFR ceilings and vsbys arriving by
Wed morning with the rain and some fog also possible. West winds
near 5 kts along I-72 to turn NE early this afternoon as front
slips south of I-72. Expect NE winds to remain light tonight and
near 5 kts Wed morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUETTL
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...HUETTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1051 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1013 AM CDT
NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO TRAP THIS
MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE MADE NO
CHANGES TO GOING HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT DID SLOW THE
TEMP RISE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
CLOUDINESS. ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
DO NOT SHOW ANY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...MODIFYING THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING FOR
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS YIELDS SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF
MLCAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...SO STILL POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING LAST AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOLID IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED MORE TOWARDS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. WHILE RFD OBSERVES IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EXPECT THE REMAINING SITES TO ONLY OBSERVE MVFR CEILINGS.
A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
THEY SCATTER BY MID/LATE MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
SPEEDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN EXTRA LAKE PUSH OCCURS. OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ADDED LAKE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM IN SPEED OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING 10 KT AT 20Z.
* MEDIUM WITH CEILING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
434 AM CDT
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY THIS MORNING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. DO EXPECT
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
TODAY...WHILE WAVES ALSO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS INCREASE IN
SPEEDS WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST SETTLES IN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
Will update the forecast today to adjust sky cover with more low
clouds from Peoria north into midday. Will continue 20-30% chances
of showers and thunderstorms over eastern IL this afternoon.
Seasonably warm highs in the mid 80s over much of CWA with upper
80s near Lawrenceville and Robinson by Wabash river valley. Rather
humid today with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F with lowest
dewpoints in southeast IL.
Short wave that brought locally heavy rains of 1.5-3.5 inches
around the Peoria metro area last night has shifted east and south
of central IL late this morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms have exited southeast IL during mid morning so by
late morning ILX CWA is dry. Low clouds of 500-1200 feet from
Peoria north while patches of clouds above 3k ft over eastern IL
from I-57 east. 10 am temps range from near 70F far ne CWA by
Lacon and Danville where clouds prevail, to upper 70s from
Springfield sw where more sunshine this morning. Dewpoints range
from mid 60s over eastern IL to near 70F from Macomb to
Springfield west.
A frontal boundary just se of the IL river will continue to press
slowly se into southeast IL later today. Even though we are on
back side of short wave exiting se of IL today, the boundary could
develop isolated convection this afternoon as it pushes through
areas se of I-55. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms this afternoon
and into tonight over Nebraska and western IA and then has 5% risk
of severe hail/wind over central IL Wed afternoon/evening and
slight chance of severe storms (15% of large hail and damaging
wind gusts) sw of a Canton to Lincoln line.
HUETTL
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
Challenging forecast thru late morning as copious low level
moisture left over from last night`s rainfall and light wind
flow will create variable conditions with respect to vsbys
and cigs thru the morning. Watching a band of stratus drifting
south out of northern Illinois which may affect the PIA and
BMI terminals this morning. After that, forecast soundings
indicate we may see some MVFR cigs for a time into early this
afternoon, especially from KPIA to KBMI and possibly into
KCMI. Based on the sounding data, cigs in the 2500-3500 foot
range will be possible before we trend towards scattered bases
around 4000 feet aftr 19z. Confidence on this scenario rather
low as lower cloud deck appears to be breaking up some as it
tracks south early this morning. Winds once again a non-factor
although we will see a frontal boundary slip south of the area
switching the wind direction more into a north to northeast
direction later this morning into the afternoon hours. Some
mid to high level clouds will be the story for tonight with
some fog/hz developing again later in the evening.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUETTL
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
849 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 15Z...LIKELY INCREASING TO 10KT
OR HIGHER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
* FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING LAST AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOLID IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED MORE TOWARDS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. WHILE RFD OBSERVES IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EXPECT THE REMAINING SITES TO ONLY OBSERVE MVFR CEILINGS.
A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
THEY SCATTER BY MID/LATE MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
SPEEDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN EXTRA LAKE PUSH OCCURS. OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ADDED LAKE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM IN SPEED OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING 10 KT AT 19Z.
* MEDIUM WITH CEILING TRENDS THIS MORNING.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
434 AM CDT
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY THIS MORNING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. DO EXPECT
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
TODAY...WHILE WAVES ALSO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS INCREASE IN
SPEEDS WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST SETTLES IN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
Challenging forecast thru late morning as copious low level
moisture left over from last night`s rainfall and light wind
flow will create variable conditions with respect to vsbys
and cigs thru the morning. Watching a band of stratus drifting
south out of northern Illinois which may affect the PIA and
BMI terminals this morning. After that, forecast soundings
indicate we may see some MVFR cigs for a time into early this
afternoon, especially from KPIA to KBMI and possibly into
KCMI. Based on the sounding data, cigs in the 2500-3500 foot
range will be possible before we trend towards scattered bases
around 4000 feet aftr 19z. Confidence on this scenario rather
low as lower cloud deck appears to be breaking up some as it
tracks south early this morning. Winds once again a non-factor
although we will see a frontal boundary slip south of the area
switching the wind direction more into a north to northeast
direction later this morning into the afternoon hours. Some
mid to high level clouds will be the story for tonight with
some fog/hz developing again later in the evening.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
355 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING.
* FOG THIS MORNING...WITH OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS.
* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING OWING TO REMAINING SHOWERS...A
RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION...AND DEVELOPING FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS SLOW TREND TO
CONTINUE AND EXIT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO
THREE HOURS. VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BUT WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN AS WELL AS
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...LOWER CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE WITH FOG DEVELOPING THAN THESE LOWER
CEILINGS AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LIKELY SCENARIO
FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID DAY WOULD BE
FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
GYY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WELL
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME...AND WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTING AT
THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT AM ANTICIPATING SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10KT. WINDS
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS...LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH ANY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVE TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY. EAST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
222 PM CDT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
RESUME ITS SOUTHERLY PUSH LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-20
KT TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WAVES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEY THEN BECOME EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AT 15 KT OR LESS.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Showers and scattered storms continuing over central Illinois late
Monday evening, most concentrated from KPIA southeast. The storms
are likely to be out of the KPIA vicinity by the start of the TAF
period, and will leave them out of there. KBMI, KCMI and KDEC also
likely to see a period of these storms, and have gone with TEMPO
groups for a couple hours to reduce visibility to around 2-3SM.
Thunder threat around KSPI appears minimal.
Have some concerns for visibility overnight, as a frontal boundary
settles southward across northern Illinois. Latest satellite
imagery showing some fairly substantial cloud breakup across Iowa
and more sustained clearing further north in Minnesota. With the
amount of rain that has fallen near KPIA Monday evening, any
clearing with the light winds will cause visibilities to tank.
Latest HRRR and RAP guidance focuses this more in Iowa and
northwest Illinois. For now will include a TEMPO group at KPIA to
bring visibility down to 3SM, but will need to watch this closely.
Further east, the higher clouds should last longer into the night,
and have kept visibility restrictions minimal for now.
Later parts of the forecast mainly focus on a wind shift to the
northwest and then north, as a cold front pushes through the area.
Have maintained some VCTS mention at KCMI during the afternoon,
with dry conditions elsewhere.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEK WHICH IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
TONIGHT...WHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK THERE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IF NOT ENTIRELY DRY.
SYNOPSIS AND TONIGHT...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY WEST-TO-EAST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN WI AND TO LOWER MI IS VERY SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE PUSH BEHIND THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH THE FRONT DRIVEN MORE BY MID/UPPER
FORCING AND COOLER STORM OUTFLOWS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CELLS ON THE
LAKE BREEZE NEAR CHICAGO....THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN IN WI AND SE MN WHERE UPPER FORCING IS BETTER
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS EVENING...STORM
COVERAGE ACTUALLY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH A VERY GRADUAL WANE ON THE REGIONAL SCOPE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW-MOVING JUST AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING FLOW AND WIND SHEAR. RADAR
TRENDS FROM WI AND INITIAL EARLY STORMS IN OUR CWA INDICATE VERY
PULSEY NATURE TO THE STORMS AND THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED INTO EVENING
WITH PRESENT MID 60S DEW POINTS AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS SHOULD MAINLY TRIGGER OR
FESTER ON OUTFLOWS. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT
UPSTREAM...INCLUDING AT LA CROSSE AND MADISON. THOSE TYPE OF GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. HOWEVER THE DISJOINT OF HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE SHORT
WAVE...AT LEAST FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...MAY PRECLUDE ANY SUCH
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A GIVEN WITH SOME STORMS DUE TO
THEIR SLOW MOVING NATURE. IF ANY OF THESE WERE TO PASS OVER A
METRO AREA IN PARTICULAR...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF FLOODING
CONCERN.
OUTFLOWS WILL LEAD TO SOME QUICK TEMPERATURE DROPS THIS EVE. BECAUSE
OF THAT SOME TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS MAY BE LOW GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY PRESENT POSSIBLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
AGAIN. IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS AND REPORTS HAVE INDICATED HAZE IN
THE METRO AREA SO HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED WAVE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...AT THIS TIME FAVORED IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME STORMS WITH THIS. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED/EVOLVED INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN POOL IN THE MID
60S. INSTABILITY OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AGAINST THE BOUNDARY...AIDED PARTLY BY A
PUSH OFF THE LAKE. AGAIN STORMS SHOULD BE OF A PULSEY NATURE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE HAS BEEN PRONOUNCED MODEL SPREAD FOR NUMEROUS RUNS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES AND MAGNITUDES DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
SPREAD HAS NOW LOWERED WITH NCEP MODELS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EC WHICH CONTINUES TO TREND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BASIC
UPPER PATTERN IS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WITH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF
IT BEING SUPPORTED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DYNAMICS. THE
CHALLENGING THING IS THAT DRIER MID TO LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TUESDAY BOUNDARY AND THAT
LIKELY IS TO PROVIDE A TIGHT GRADIENT AT LEAST AT TIMES IN PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FURTHEST
OUTLYING NORTH MODEL HAD BEEN THE 12KM NAM-WRF...WHICH EVEN ITS
4KM NESTED SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH. THE 12Z GFS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN ITS COURSER RESOLUTION IS LIKELY PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS QPF...AND ASSOCIATED GRIDDED POPS FOR BEING
FURTHER NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS AND WPC TO PUSH GOING POPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80 FOR MANY OF THOSE PERIODS. SO BASICALLY HAVE CHICAGO DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING.
* FOG THIS MORNING...WITH OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS.
* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING OWING TO REMAINING SHOWERS...A
RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION...AND DEVELOPING FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS SLOW TREND TO
CONTINUE AND EXIT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO
THREE HOURS. VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BUT WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN AS WELL AS
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...LOWER CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE WITH FOG DEVELOPING THAN THESE LOWER
CEILINGS AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LIKELY SCENARIO
FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID DAY WOULD BE
FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
GYY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WELL
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME...AND WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTING AT
THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT AM ANTICIPATING SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10KT. WINDS
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS...LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH ANY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVE TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY. EAST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
222 PM CDT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
RESUME ITS SOUTHERLY PUSH LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-20
KT TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WAVES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEY THEN BECOME EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AT 15 KT OR LESS.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 834 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Convection that developed west of the Illinois River very late
afternoon has diminished some and made it as far east as I-155. A
large area of showers and thunderstorms was along and north of a
frontal boundary, which extended from near Des Moines into the
Chicago metro. Main threat of storms the rest of the night will be
most concentrated along and west of I-55, as a shortwave drops
southeast across Iowa. May see a few showers/storms as far
southeast as I-70 after midnight, but areas south of there likely
to remain dry overnight.
Updated zones/grids have been sent.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Showers and scattered storms continuing over central Illinois late
Monday evening, most concentrated from KPIA southeast. The storms
are likely to be out of the KPIA vicinity by the start of the TAF
period, and will leave them out of there. KBMI, KCMI and KDEC also
likely to see a period of these storms, and have gone with TEMPO
groups for a couple hours to reduce visibility to around 2-3SM.
Thunder threat around KSPI appears minimal.
Have some concerns for visibility overnight, as a frontal boundary
settles southward across northern Illinois. Latest satellite
imagery showing some fairly substantial cloud breakup across Iowa
and more sustained clearing further north in Minnesota. With the
amount of rain that has fallen near KPIA Monday evening, any
clearing with the light winds will cause visibilities to tank.
Latest HRRR and RAP guidance focuses this more in Iowa and
northwest Illinois. For now will include a TEMPO group at KPIA to
bring visibility down to 3SM, but will need to watch this closely.
Further east, the higher clouds should last longer into the night,
and have kept visibility restrictions minimal for now.
Later parts of the forecast mainly focus on a wind shift to the
northwest and then north, as a cold front pushes through the area.
Have maintained some VCTS mention at KCMI during the afternoon,
with dry conditions elsewhere.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 236 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
Northwesterly flow aloft over and upstream of Illinois as a large
scale high pressure ridge resides over the Rockies and a large
scale trough resides over the eastern U.S. just east of Illinois.
Disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow upstream of
Illinois and a cold front currently near the IL/WI border will be
the main features bringing precipitation/thunderstorms to central
IL through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.
Frontal boundary to the north expected to move into central IL
overnight and to southeast IL late Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity
currently over southern WI will spread into central IL as this
occurs, however daytime heating will have ended bringing limiting
surface-based instability. Mid-upper level instability should
still be enough for some elevated convection however. As the front
moves to Southeast IL Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorm activity
should shift to that region. A bit of a break is likely Tuesday
evening, then another disturbance brings stronger mid-level flow
over the region late Tuesday night along with precipitable water
increasing to around 2 inches interacting with the frontal zone
stalled over the region. This should bring another good chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday, some with
potentially heavy rainfall. Instability looks to be minimal so
severe thunderstorm potential remains minimal, primarily over
west-central IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
The frontal boundary is expected to linger for a few
days, eventually pushing southward late in the week. As a
result, chance PoPs remain in the forecast through
Friday, gradually moving off to the south. A basically dry
forecast is in store for the weekend with the frontal boundary
moving to the south however models still indicate disturbances
moving across the top of the ridge to the west could affect
portions of western Illinois, and have kept slight chances in for
this possibility.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE EXTREME WEST THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND UPPED THEM TO HIGH END OF CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. RAIN IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES EAST SO KEPT LOWER POPS EAST.
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WEAKENS...AND LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THUS GENERALLY
KEPT POPS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM THE
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE THIS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT. NERVELESS I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THAT THESE CEILINGS
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION. FOR NOW WILL BRING IN 2 THOUSAND
SCATTERED WITH MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON.
A WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION
VCTS IN TAFS.
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
NORTH TO NORTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE EXTREME WEST THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND UPPED THEM TO HIGH END OF CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. RAIN IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES EAST SO KEPT LOWER POPS EAST.
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WEAKENS...AND LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THUS GENERALLY
KEPT POPS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM THE
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS PORINT.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL BUT KLAF. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THE PRECIP AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KLAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING ALOFT
IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP
THESE SITES DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO N/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT DECK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD
SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE EXTREME WEST THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND UPPED THEM TO HIGH END OF CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. RAIN IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES EAST SO KEPT LOWER POPS EAST.
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WEAKENS...AND LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THUS GENERALLY
KEPT POPS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM THE
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL BUT KLAF. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THE PRECIP AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KLAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING ALOFT
IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP
THESE SITES DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO N/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT DECK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD
SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL BUT KLAF. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THE PRECIP AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KLAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING ALOFT
IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP
THESE SITES DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO N/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT DECK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD
SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
452 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECASTS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT MAY STILL
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLAF TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
MAINLY THE OUTLYING SITES NEAR DAYBREAK.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND DEWPOINTS HIGH AGAIN TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM MAY BE A COMPLICATING
FACTOR. WILL TAKE OUTLYING SITES DOWN TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z.
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS NEAR LAF AND AT MOST SITES
TUESDAY...BUT PROBABILITIES AND TOO LOW AND TIMING/PLACEMENT TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT LAF FOR THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT MAY BRUSH THE LAF AREA AS IT IS DISSIPATING.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD/RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
MAINLY THE OUTLYING SITES NEAR DAYBREAK.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND DEWPOINTS HIGH AGAIN TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM MAY BE A COMPLICATING
FACTOR. WILL TAKE OUTLYING SITES DOWN TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z.
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS NEAR LAF AND AT MOST SITES
TUESDAY...BUT PROBABILITIES AND TOO LOW AND TIMING/PLACEMENT TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT LAF FOR THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT MAY BRUSH THE LAF AREA AS IT IS DISSIPATING.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
633 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. TWO SHORTWAVES...PRESENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL KS...WILL HELP
PROVIDE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN. LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND POINT INTO IA...PROVIDING AMPLE
MOISTURE. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE 2.0 IN RANGE...WHICH
AGAIN WILL BE AROUND +2 SD VS CLIMO. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL APPROACH
THE 12 KFT RANGE. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS DO TEND TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...MORE SO THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND RESULTING
RAINFALL. THE NAM IS THE WETTEST AND BRINGS A RIBBON OF FORCING
ALONG WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT AS INTENSE THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE
TENDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TONIGHT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF IA HWY 92.
WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IA COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF 92...GIVEN LAST NIGHT/S
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
THERE...CONFIDENCE IS AROUND THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD WHICH
WOULD BE THE LOW-END FLASH FLOOD WATCH CRITERIA.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL BUT
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
THIS AFTN IN SW IA...WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MINIMAL HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SHORTER TERM WITH
EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY SFC SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MO AND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THETAE AXIS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO
FEED THIS AREA WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING. MODELS HAVENT
QUITE REACHED A CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHEAST US.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH THE H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE EURO/GFS/NAM HIT THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FOCUSED BETWEEN 12-18Z USING A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH TRACK OF THE H850 LOW. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH MESO HRRR AND NMM MODELS. CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING FAIRLY WELL WITH ALL MODELS BUT WITH EXPECTED
MESO CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MO THIS EVENING...TRACK
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
AND CLOSER TO THE HRRR/NMM. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THAT SOLUTION
...IN LINE WITH WPC AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH DURING THE
EVENING SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS FARTHER NORTH. ANY
DEVIATION NORTH WOULD RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BEING HIGHER IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHEARED OUT
AND WEAKENS...AND HANGS ON INTO FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTH. ALREADY INTO THE WEEKEND NOW SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GREAT LAKES HIGH NOW BEING MODELED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND IS NOW TRENDING TO KEEP AREA DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE REDUCED POP CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS...
BUT HAVE NOT CUT OUT YET DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND CONSENSUS
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT THIS POINT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
TONIGHTS MODEL PACKAGES...THEN FURTHER REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY SOME MODERATION IS
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
RISK FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK....LESSENING CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. SOME HINT AT RETURN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT ACROSS MISSOURI WITH EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. BAND OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE TIME IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
NORTHERN TAFS MAY BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH DRIER AIR IN THE
PART OF THE STATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THURSDAY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE STATE.
URBAN AREAS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING
ISSUES AS MOST RURAL LOCATIONS HAVE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
MINIMAL RISES ARE ANTICIPATED ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-CLARKE-
DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-RINGGOLD-UNION-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
...Updated Short Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
The primary focus will be convection this evening and how expansive
it will be this evening across western Kansas. Water vapor loop
early this afternoon showed a substantial mid level dry intrusion
into the southwestern CONUS which was pushing northeastward through
Colorado. RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed middle
troposphere from the primary vorticity anomaly across
central/northern California...eastward through Utah and into
Colorado. A 250mb jet streak continued to nose northeastward into
southern California through southern Utah. A lee trough convergence
axis was found across far southeastern Colorado into far
northwestern Kansas. This was on the western periphery of deep mid
level moisture plume. All the short-term high resolution models
suggest convection continuing to develop along the lee trough
convergence axis and also over terrain-favored regions of Colorado.
There is the suggestion that the most organized of lee trough
convection will stay just north of the DDC forecast area from far
west-central KS into northwestern KS. Both the 12Z WRF ARW and NMMB
show a cluster of pseudo-organized convection rolling east-southeast
reaching roughly a Leoti to Gove line by around 06Z. The best of the
lee trough convergence will be farther north, so it would make sense
that the high resolution models are keeping the most sustained
convection across northwestern Kansas. Other less organized
convection farther south may last through sunset, but not much after
that. We will keep Chance POPs confined to far west-central KS
(Kearny to Scott County). South winds tonight averaging 12 to 15
knots will keep the boundary layer mixed enough through the night
that temperatures will likely plateau during the 06-12Z time frame
in the lower 70s along/east of Highway 283. The trough axis will
shift east Wednesday with lighter winds much of the day across much
of southwest Kansas. Weak convergence along the trough may yield
late afternoon convection, but only loosely organized convection at
best can be expected with the deep frontogenetic forcing still north
of the southwest Kansas region through late afternoon Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
No significant changes were made to the extended period of the
forecast. Wednesday night, and through the overnight into Thursday
morning will present chances for convection along a weak boundary
and area of surface low pressure over western Kansas. The model
signals for this suggest the best chances for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be across central Kansas where instability and
CAPE will be greater. Any storms along this convergence zone should
end by Thursday morning across the south central Kansas counties
rendering Thursday dry for most of the day. Convection will again be
possible in the far west on Thursday evening and through the night
as it forms diurnally along the high terrain of eastern Colorado
with the aid of upslope surface flow and higher dew points around
60 degrees or more.
Beyond Friday, the region will remain in a fairly westerly zonal
pattern but also not a particularly strong surface gradient, leading
to relatively light winds. As the region will remain fairly rich
ion surface moisture and warm, any local areas of uncapped
convergence could set off afternoon convection lasting into the very
early evening through about Tuesday. However chances as far as areal
coverage are concerned should be fairly minimal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
South winds will remain fairly strong through the afternoon,
averaging 18 to 22 knots sustained through early evening before
decreasing to around 12 to 15 knots later this evening. A fairly
strong pressure gradient by summer standards will persist through
the night, keeping surface winds up around 15 knots at HYS and
DDC. The latest indications from high-resolution short term models
is that loosely organized thunderstorms late this
afternoon/evening will move slowly through west-central Kansas
during the mid to late evening hours, but weaken or dissolve
entirely late tonight. It does not seem likely that convection
will impact any of the terminals, except perhaps GCK (being
farther west).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 94 67 92 / 10 20 20 10
GCK 67 94 66 92 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 67 94 66 95 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 69 95 68 97 / 10 20 20 10
HYS 70 96 67 93 / 30 20 30 10
P28 71 94 70 95 / 10 20 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
Cirrus was slowly overspreading the western sections of Kansas from
the mean height ridge moving eastward from the Rockies into the High
Plains. A weak surface pressure/850 mb height gradient enveloped the
Central Plains. Relative low pressure over the eastern Colorado
resulted in a northward oriented pressure gradient gradient across
western Kansas resulting in generally south winds at most locations
with little downslope. Temperatures warmed to around 90 degrees
across in most locations as dew points mixed down to the upper 40s
from Scott City to Hugoton. Hays, which is closer to the warmer air
at 850 mb warmed into the upper 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The temperature trend and dew points to a lesser degree seemed to
have followed the consensus of the short term models blend fairly
well this afternoon. This trend will continue to be followed into
the rest of the forecast including Tuesday morning and into
Tuesday. The cirrus overhead may have a small impact on overnight
lows as the recent updates have bumped lows into the mid and upper
60s in most locations. The HRRR model continues to show isolated to
widely scattered convection across south central Kansas late this
afternoon likely based on reaching convective temperatures. Current
trends suggest this is overdone as was the case Sunday afternoon,
and PoPs will not be added at this time.
No major shift in airmass is taking place tonight and the same
general pattern of surface winds and diurnal warming is expected
heading into Tuesday afternoon. A breakdown in the ridge by a mid
level shortwave will create scattered convection across northeast
and east central Colorado by late in the afternoon. Low PoPs will be
included for about the western half of the area starting at about
about 23 UTC, following previous forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The upper level ridge will flatten out and be shunted southward
during the next couple of days as a series of upper level
shortwaves move up and over the ridge. These features will bring a
chance of thunderstorms to the forecast area through this weekend.
The slight chance of thunderstorms will start out across far
western Kansas Tuesday night then across central Kansas Wednesday
night. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be
from the south to south southwest Tuesday night through Thursday
with a surface trough located across eastern Colorado and far
western Kansas. A better chance of thunderstorms will be expected
this weekend as the upper level ridge retrogrades towards the
southwest United States. Winds will generally be from the southeast
during this time frame as a stationary front will be located at
the surface south of the area with a dome of high pressure to the
north. Highs through the extended period will generally be in the
low to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South winds will
generally be around 10 knots or less overnight but are expected to
become a little more southwesterly and increase to around 15-20 knots
with higher gusts by mid to late morning Tuesday. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms could impact the Garden City and Dodge City
airports toward the end of this TAF period. Given the timing and expected
nature of the storms, will hold off putting any mention of storms in
the TAFs at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 95 68 93 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 68 94 67 92 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 67 95 67 94 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 69 96 68 95 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 70 94 68 91 / 20 30 30 20
P28 71 94 71 95 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
110 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A NICE EARLY AUGUST DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWERS
DOWN TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR. SOME PESKY LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MILL AROUND DOWN THAT WAY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS WITH BOUTS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
NORTH CONTINUE TO SEE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SAID WAVE. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BLOSSOMING OF
SOME CUMULUS BENEATH WEAKISH THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE. NOT AT ALL CONVINCED WE WILL REALIZE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY LOOKS A SHADE
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY PER 12Z APX RAOB...INDICATIVE OF DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIXING OUT BACK THROUGH THE LOWER 50S WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN LITTLE
THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL TAKE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING TO JUST SQUEEZE BY THE CAP UP AROUND 600
MB. IF THAT`S GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWHERE IT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESIDE
OFF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY...BUT EVEN THERE THE CHANCE IS QUITE
LOW. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE `ISOLATED` RANGE WHILE ALSO
RAISING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BASED OFF
YESTERDAY`S READINGS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...NOT TO MENTION
CURRENT OBS ALREADY WITHIN 5-7 DEGREES OF GOING HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A THICKER PERIOD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
AROUND KAPN UP THROUGH ABOUT 19Z...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT WITH TIME. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SHALLOW
GROUND/RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN SPOTS...MOST PRONOUNCED
AROUND THE KMBL TERMINAL. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A NICE EARLY AUGUST DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWERS
DOWN TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR. SOME PESKY LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MILL AROUND DOWN THAT WAY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS WITH BOUTS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
NORTH CONTINUE TO SEE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SAID WAVE. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BLOSSOMING OF
SOME CUMULUS BENEATH WEAKISH THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE. NOT AT ALL CONVINCED WE WILL REALIZE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY LOOKS A SHADE
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY PER 12Z APX RAOB...INDICATIVE OF DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIXING OUT BACK THROUGH THE LOWER 50S WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN LITTLE
THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL TAKE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING TO JUST SQUEEZE BY THE CAP UP AROUND 600
MB. IF THAT`S GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWHERE IT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESIDE
OFF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY...BUT EVEN THERE THE CHANCE IS QUITE
LOW. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE `ISOLATED` RANGE WHILE ALSO
RAISING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BASED OFF
YESTERDAY`S READINGS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...NOT TO MENTION
CURRENT OBS ALREADY WITHIN 5-7 DEGREES OF GOING HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...VFR...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING AWAY FROM TVC/MBL ATTM WITH
CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY SETTLING IN. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS AROUND THE
AIRPORTS WITH LAKE BREEZES YET AGAIN. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WITH MAYBE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD FOR MAINLY PLN/APN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...VFR...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING AWAY FROM TVC/MBL ATTM WITH
CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY SETTLING IN. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS AROUND THE
AIRPORTS WITH LAKE BREEZES YET AGAIN. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WITH MAYBE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD FOR MAINLY PLN/APN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GAYLORD MI
445 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THRU AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TVC AND MBL AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BECOME N/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO OW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED MOISTURE (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) IS A COUPLE FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH. ALL
OF THIS REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN MACKINAC
COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FADE OFF
THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE
FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL SHOWERS BY MID/LATE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THRU AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TVC AND MBL AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BECOME N/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 955 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Scattered thunderstorms that were over northern Missouri earlier
this evening have dissipated. Still expect additional development
over the next few hours as the RAP shows an increase in 925-850mb
moisture convergence though 06Z over central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois that will shift southeast
across the CWA through 12Z. Have mainly slight chances of
thunderstorms the rest of the evening, but then have low chance
pops again overnight. Rest of the forecast including temperatures
still looks good and have made only minor adjustments based on
latest observations.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Weak warm advection has fueled the redevelopment of spotty
convection just to the east of a KIRK-KCOU-Eminence line over the
past few hours. Consensus of much of the short-range, hi-res
guidance is that this activity will work east and likely weaken
during the evening, but expect another uptick in PoPs after 06z as
subtle veering of weak low level jet focuses somewhat stronger lift
in a N-S axis roughly centered near or just west of STL area during
the predawn hours.
Overnight mins are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than
those of last night, primarily due to clouds.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
12z runs are forecasting a very subtle flattening of the mid level
flow regime over the mid-Mississippi heading into midweek. This
will cause a southward shift in the baroclinicity and frontal
boundary currently locked to our north, and ultimately result in
increasing rainfall chances over much of the CWA. By the end of the
week, many parts of the CWA should have received some very welcomed
wet weather.
This morning`s runs offer fairly similar solutions regarding precip
trends into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms that manage to develop
overnight tonight should drift south and weaken on Tuesday morning,
and I`ve continued low PoPs into tomorrow afternoon for areas along
and south of a KCOU-KUIN line as surface boundary will be lingering
over this part of the FA, and interacting with the increasingly
unstable AMS driven by diurnal heating. Any storms that manage to
develop Tuesday afternoon should weaken during the evening.
Model consensus remains fairly good agreement with large scale
trends heading into Tuesday night, with synoptic scale models all
forecasting the intensification of the low level jet over the mid
Missouri Valley during the late night hours. The resultant theta-e
advection/lift should lead to the development of an MCS over IA that
will roll southeast, with the leading edge of this system
threatening northern sections of our CWA late Tuesday night. NAM is
a bit further north with the QPF of this system than the GFS and the
ECMWF, and since the NAM has been a bit too far north with the
last few convective complexes, have given a nod to the consensus of
the more southern solutions.
Guidance specifics become a bit more murky heading into Wednesday
and Thursday, but all solutions indicate persistent low level WAA
into the area, combined with one or shortwaves/vort maxes drifting
across the region. Thunderstorm threat on Wednesday will likely be
a combination of the aforementioned MCS over northeast parts of the
CWA, along with additional more scattered development occurring
further to the south due to the above forcing mechanisms, along with
possible outflow interaction and increasingly unstable afternoon
airmass. Have continued our highest PoPs for Wednesday night and
Thursday, as increased baroclinicity should lead to the best low
level forcing during this time frame.
Heading into the medium range ridge begins to re-exert its
influence, but whats left of the westerly flow will allow
weak dynamics to cross the area, interacting with the residualy
unstable airmass and baroclinic zone that remains parked over the
region. Have maintained earlier forecast trends for now, keeping
fairly high PoPs into Thursday night, then slowly backing off to
low/slight chance PoPs over the weekend and into early next week.
Temperature-wise, fairly typical late summer readings can be
expected tomorrow, but the combination of clouds and the southward
push of cooler air should mean cooler weather over northeast parts
of the CWA on Wednesday, and over the rest of the area by Thursday
and Friday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Specifics for KCOU/KUIN: Scattered SH/TS will affect KCOU/KUIN
over the next few hours before moving south and east of the
terminals. A cold front will sink southward into the region
overnight and tomorrow. Additional thunderstorms are possible at
KCOU/KUIN during the afternoon hours depending on where the cold
front is located relative to the terminals.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Scattered SH/TS will reach metro
area terminals within the next 1-2 hours. Additional thunderstorms
are possible after 18z depending on the position of a slow-moving
cold front.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
A nice cumulus field is developing with daytime heating and
instability this afternoon especially over southern Missouri.
There is a very subtle upper level shortwave moving through the
area this afternoon. The latest HRRR is indicating isolated to
scattered convection to develop by 22z near I-44 and move
southward into the early evening hours. Will still carry 20 to 30
percent pops for this general area into the evening hours.
Another upper level wave will move across the northern part of the
state by early tomorrow morning with some possible convection
making its way into central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks
tomorrow morning. Will carry a slight mention of pops for tomorrow
morning for this general area and a slightly better chance for
convection east of Highway 65 Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The upper level ridge of high pressure which has been in control
of our weather pattern will break down somewhat over us and allow
multiple shortwaves to ride down a west-northwest flow. A front
will meander into the region by Thursday and pretty much stall out
over the Missouri Ozarks or nearby through weekend.
There will be several rounds of convection and possible MCS
activity riding along that front through the area. The first chance
for widespread convection will be late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with another rounds developing Thursday night
into Friday morning and possibly another round Friday night into
Saturday morning. Timing and exact placement is difficult to
pinpoint down at this time. The ECMWF is most bullish than the
GFS and GEM but all have the same idea.
Will mention a slight risk for heavy rainfall and some flash
flooding threat for the end of the week with widespread one to
three inches likely with isolated higher amounts over the eastern
Ozarks and central Missouri areas.
Temperatures by the end of the week will be dependent on where the
stalled front is positioned and on going convection and cloud
cover...but generally cooler temperatures in the lower 80s for the
eastern half of the CWA and upper 80s for southeast Kansas and far
southwest Missouri for the Thursday through Saturday time frame.
The front finally lifts back to the north or washes out by early
next week with temperatures moderating back to near normal and
slight pops lingering in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
trough will move slowly south into central/southern MO during the
taf period veering winds to the west toward 15z. The trough may
trigger some scattered convection once again Tue, but coverage is
expected to be sparse, but maybe a little more than the past
couple of days.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN INDICATING. BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE FLATTENING RIDGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THE 315K SURFACE AND PW`S NEAR
2.00" SHOULD LAY OUT 1-2"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. FORECASTED QPF VALUES
HAVE HAD FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BULLSEYE
AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
SFC LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND HUGS THE WESTERN KS/NE
BORDER BY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND FORCING FROM ANOTHER WEAK APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER IN THE DAY OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
INTERMITTENT PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA BEFORE 06Z WOULD BE AT KOFK...
AND WILL WRITE TAFS THAT WAY. MAY LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSRA AT
KOMA AND KLNK FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL BEING
MOSTLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SURE ENOUGH A MID-LVL SHWR HAS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AND PULSED UP
NEAR NORTON KS /NRN/ BUT IT IS ALREADY FADING. HAVE INTRODUCED A
20% POP S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES FROM NOW THRU EARLY AFTERNOON TO
ACCT FOR WHAT COULD BE JUST SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DWPTS YESTERDAY SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
AND LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S DDC SOUNDING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WX
FCST WITH THE LOWER RH LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH BKN CIRROSTRATUS AROUND 20K FT. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z WHEN SCT
TSTMS DEVELOP TO THE W. SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A VFR OR MVFR TSTM BETWEEN 03Z-09Z.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DEBRIS INVADE PRIMARILY ABOVE 10K FT. SE WINDS
SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KTS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 08Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM
WED MORNING: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CEILINGS DEPARTING TO THE E.
LLWS ENDS BY 14Z. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A FEW MINOR UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TD/T/CLOUD TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS SOLID. STILL
ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CURRENTLY FAVORING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK DRY LINE AND/OR NORTH OF THE
LIFTING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PWATS WILL BE
1.50" OR GREATER OVER MOST LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN STORMS. SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DEEP SHEAR...BUT SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
INCREASE TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE STORM ROTATION AND A BRIEF HAILER OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH 21Z.
BEYOND 21Z CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS MOST LIKELY IMPACTING THE KVTN TERMINAL FIRST...THEN FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST TO BRING A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE KLBF
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD DROP CEILINGS
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS. HOW LOW TO GO IS THE
MAIN QUESTION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A FEW MINOR UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TD/T/CLOUD TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS SOLID. STILL
ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CURRENTLY FAVORING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK DRY LINE AND/OR NORTH OF THE
LIFTING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PWATS WILL BE
1.50" OR GREATER OVER MOST LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN STORMS. SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DEEP SHEAR...BUT SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
INCREASE TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE STORM ROTATION AND A BRIEF HAILER OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
IFR ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21Z
ONWARD...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STORM ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS
SWRN COLO LIFTS INTO THE SANDHILLS. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED FROM 06Z ONWARD AND BECOME SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING FROM 04Z ONWARD ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS ALSO.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON GRIDS AND PRODUCTS EARLIER.
WILL TWEAK THINGS AGAIN BY AROUND 1 PM OR SO. RECENT HRRR MODEL
RUNS DEPICT STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BASED ON THE PATTERN...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS A FEW STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TIMING AND EXTENT OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN AND CHALLENGE.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
BORDER STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. NEW DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING OVER
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND OMAHA SINCE 07Z.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY LOCATION CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INITIALLY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES COME ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE PUSHING THE STRONGER FLOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
AREA. HARD TO CALL ON TIMING OF EVENTS SO A BROADBRUSH OF POPS
COVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA BEFORE 06Z WOULD BE AT KOFK...
AND WILL WRITE TAFS THAT WAY. MAY LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSRA AT
KOMA AND KLNK FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL BEING
MOSTLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SURE ENOUGH A MID-LVL SHWR HAS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AND PULSED UP
NEAR NORTON KS /NRN/ BUT IT IS ALREADY FADING. HAVE INTRODUCED A
20% POP S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES FROM NOW THRU EARLY AFTERNOON TO
ACCT FOR WHAT COULD BE JUST SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DWPTS YESTERDAY SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
AND LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S DDC SOUNDING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WX
FCST WITH THE LOWER RH LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DWPTS YESTERDAY SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
AND LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S DDC SOUNDING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WX
FCST WITH THE LOWER RH LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
636 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
IFR ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21Z
ONWARD...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STORM ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS
SWRN COLO LIFTS INTO THE SANDHILLS. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED FROM 06Z ONWARD AND BECOME SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING FROM 04Z ONWARD ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS ALSO.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA EAST OF IEN. THE STORMS COULD REACH VTN AS EARLY AS 07Z AND
AS LATE AS 09Z. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY FOR TWO HOURS. PROJECTING THE CURRENT MOVEMENT BRINGS
THE STORMS TO VTN ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL KEEP
THEM IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TWO HOURS.
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF AN
ONL-TIF-AIA LINE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...A EAST WIND WILL CREATE AN UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF THEY WILL BE ABOVE OR BELOW 1000
FEET AGL. FOR VTN...WE WILL HOLD THE CEILING TO JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET
UNLESS THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT IT WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET
AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL HAS SOME SPOTTY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MVFR VISIBILITY GOING AND KEEP
AND EYE ON WHETHER THE VISIBILITY DROPS LOWER. THE WORST SHOULD BE
FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEAR WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING...BUT IT IS SMALL AND WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
ON WEDNESDAY...STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BACK INTO THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM COVERAGE WILL
SLOWLY START TO INCREASE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
RETURN. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
RECENT WEEKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO NM PER WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 12Z FGZ SOUNDING. AS SUCH...CONVECTION HAS REALLY
STRUGGLED TO START...OR MAINTAIN ITSELF WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT LIKELY SETTING UP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT HAS
PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WITH THE AID OF A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NM...AND DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO MID
LEVELS...HAVE ALREADY SEEN ONE SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE NE...AND A
FEW MORE STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH STORM MOTIONS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH...THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS CONSIDERABLY DECREASED...THOUGH ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN BIGGER DOWN TICK
IN STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS LOOK TO CRATER TO AROUND 0.50
INCHES...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON THE FGZ SOUNDING THIS AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...AS
SOME DISTURBANCE...LIKELY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION OVER
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NM. PWATS WILL CREEP UP
ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NONETHELESS... A FEW MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE NAM IS
SUGGESTING AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL BE
A FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS
HERE...BUT NOT OVERLY SOLD YET. NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND IT ACROSS THE FAR NE MAY BE A
BETTER BET FOR STORMS.
LOOKING FOR A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
OVER OKLAHOMA...THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS AT BRING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD DESPITE THE FAVORABLE PATTERN. THIS MAY CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
FRIDAY...OTHER THAN THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND STORMS
AROUND. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
AUGUST. LOOKS LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT BACK
OVER NM...DIVERTING THE MOISTURE PLUME WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID LOWER DEWPOINT
VALUES THUS RH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE DYNAMIC DRY SLOT/MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
PATTERN...VEGETATION WILL BE GOING OVERTIME IN TERMS OF
TRANSPIRATION AT NIGHT SO RAISED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINT VALUES SOME
ACROSS THE EAST. MOIST SOILS WILL ALSO KEEP DEWPOINT READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS
WED/THUR PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE. THEN MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS SO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO FIRE
STARTS UP THAT BECAUSE OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS WETTING RAIN...OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE PRETTY
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK. A FEW WETTING STORMS
FAVORING THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF WILL OCCUR REST OF TODAY BUT
PRETTY ISOLATED. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CELLS PRETTY LIMITED
WEDNESDAY. A BAGGY TROUGH OR WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW TRANSITION IN TERMS OF
WETTING RAIN COVERAGE BUT THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BASED ON MODEL
COMPARISONS THE PAST DAY OR SO AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF
YEAR. THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL HAVE SAGGED SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES LOOK FOR IT TO TRY TO
STRENGTHEN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD DUE TO
THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE NECESSARY DRIVERS OR INGREDIENTS WOULD BE
IN PLACE TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD EVENTUALLY WARM SOME BUT
HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEST AND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EAST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL
DRIVERS. THE STRONGEST WIND FOR THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE
TODAY AND FAVOR THE EAST. ANY THUNDER CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
CONTAIN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL/SFC DRYING.
LOOKING AT A RETURN TO SOME HAINES 5/6 VALUES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HAINES 6 MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DECENT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BUT LOWER SOME DURING THE WEEKEND.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL
PLACEMENT WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. STILL LOOKING AT A
BAGGY TROUGH TO THE WEST. THUS...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE ITSELF OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. HOW
MUCH AND EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL A LITTLE TRICKY. ANOTHER FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WOULD BE AN EASTERLY WAVE COMING OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS EASTERLY WAVE WOULD DRAG
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VERSUS
PROVIDING A MOISTENING TREND BUT HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. A PRETTY
TYPICAL PERIOD FOR THE WET PHASE OF THE MONSOON SUMMER PERIOD SO
NOTHING REAL UNUSUAL UPCOMING.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LIMIT SH/TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.
USING VCSH OR TEMPO SH FOR SOME OF THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. FAIRLY DYNAMIC DAY SO LOOK FOR SOME UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD PROBABLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT SO
USING GUSTS TO 30-35 KT BUT CANT RULE OUT STRONGER. SOME OF THE
WETTER STORMS WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EAST OF THE
CNTRL MTNS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE SOON AFTER SUNSET.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 90 56 92 / 5 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 53 86 45 85 / 10 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 53 85 51 84 / 5 5 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 49 86 46 86 / 5 5 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 48 83 44 80 / 5 10 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 52 86 48 84 / 5 5 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 50 83 50 80 / 10 10 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 53 89 58 88 / 10 10 10 10
CHAMA........................... 44 79 43 80 / 20 5 5 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 85 54 82 / 20 5 5 20
PECOS........................... 52 84 54 80 / 10 5 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 81 48 80 / 20 5 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 43 74 44 73 / 20 10 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 78 42 78 / 20 5 5 30
TAOS............................ 50 84 48 85 / 20 5 5 10
MORA............................ 52 84 52 81 / 20 5 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 58 89 58 87 / 10 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 54 84 57 84 / 10 5 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 88 57 88 / 5 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 89 62 88 / 5 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 91 64 90 / 5 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 92 61 92 / 5 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 91 62 91 / 5 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 92 62 91 / 5 5 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 93 62 92 / 5 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 94 65 94 / 10 5 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 87 59 85 / 10 5 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 57 88 59 87 / 10 5 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 86 54 83 / 10 5 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 85 57 86 / 10 5 5 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 59 84 / 20 10 10 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 88 63 86 / 10 5 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 82 58 81 / 20 20 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 54 86 56 83 / 40 10 5 30
RATON........................... 55 89 54 88 / 20 5 5 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 90 53 88 / 20 5 5 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 86 54 85 / 20 5 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 94 63 94 / 30 5 5 20
ROY............................. 61 90 57 88 / 20 5 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 67 97 64 96 / 20 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 94 62 92 / 20 5 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 99 65 99 / 20 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 63 95 65 94 / 10 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 63 96 65 95 / 10 0 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 96 66 94 / 20 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 67 98 67 97 / 10 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 61 90 63 90 / 20 5 10 30
ELK............................. 58 83 63 82 / 20 10 10 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A LARGE REGION OF HIGH THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRETCH OF DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT TO LIKELY TONIGHT AND REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THIS UPDATE. ALSO...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
SEVERAL DEGREES ACRS THE DACKS...DUE TO MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS
ATTM. THIS BAND OF RAIN WL BE ACRS THE CPV BTWN 04-06Z...INTO
CENTRAL VT BTWN 05-07Z...AND THRU EASTERN SECTIONS BY 08Z.
THINKING OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WL
DECREASE AFT 06Z ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION...PER LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. TEMPS WL RANGE
FROM THE U40S NEK TO LOWER 50S DACKS TO M/U 50S SLV/CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPS ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AS PROGGED BY 12Z NAM
GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 TO UNDER 1000 J/KG...KEPT DOWN BY DRY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SFC HEATING WILL ALSO TEND TO LOWER AS THE
DAY GOES ON AS WELL AS HEATING SHOULD READILY PRODUCE CUMULUS
CLOUDS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE FEEL THREAT FOR
THUNDER WOULD BE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT ANY ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
PRESENCE OF LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /7-9 KFT/. HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CELLULAR ACTIVITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE
AS THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT OTHER CONVECTIVE MODES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO IS LOW. NO ENHANCED WORDING ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
NON-SEVERE T-STORMS CAPABLE OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL. POPS TREND UPWARD
THROUGH THE AFTN TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY WHEN BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING OVERLAP...BEFORE
LOWERING BY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER .25" THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS OF +7 TO +9C...IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...COOLEST IN EASTERN VT AND MILDER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC TO BL WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
ASIDE FROM SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREA...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH AFTN FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS. 850 TEMPS WARM
UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
A FEW SPOT 80 DEGREE READINGS. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS...WITH LOWS RANGING
IN THE MID 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN
PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO UNDER FULL SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON TIMING WHICH WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
PROGS ARE POINTING TOWARDS AN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROPA...BUT
THIS FAR OUT IT`S TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG/BR.
SKIES WILL START CLEAR THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS (ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO
ANTICIPATED SCATTERED NATURE. AS SHOWERS EXIT...MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MVFR...ESPECIALLY
SLK. MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT SLK AS WELL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MSS BEING LEAST-AFFECTED. LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN NORTH/NORTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING BRIEFLY LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND IFR. POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG/BR
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
858 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...THERE IS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO MAINE BY THURSDAY. RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE BATCHES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HAS FAIRLY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE THIS WILL PROBABLY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...HOWEVER DRIER AFTER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION WHEN
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. FOG STILL MAY BE FAIRLY DENSE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY TOUCH OFF MORE SHOWERS IN NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EAST TO NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AT ALL
LEVELS IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SAME TIME...GRADUAL WARMING OF OUR
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM INITIALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 80 BY
SATURDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEATURE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE AXIS OF ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE...BY AND LARGE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE NEXT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN BOTH THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...AND THE USUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THIS FAR
OUT.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
BEGINNING TUESDAY...READINGS MAY DROP OFF A LITTLE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH THESE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO DROP MORE THAN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ART...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS (SUCH AS JHW)...WHERE
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS/LAKE BREEZES ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED CU...BASES 3-4K
FT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OTHER THAN OVERNIGHT DENSE VALLEY
FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SPARKS A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A LARGE REGION OF HIGH THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRETCH OF DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 706 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS...CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACRS NORTHERN
NY...THE CPV...AND MOST OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIVING SOUTHEAST TWD THE SLV
ATTM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
LATEST HRRR...RAP13...AND BTV 4KM SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 500 J/KG ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT THINKING A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED IN FCST FOR NORTHERN NY. TIMING
THE PRECIP HAS IT ARRIVING BTWN 0130 AND 0230 ACRS THE SLV...BTWN
0230 AND 0430Z DACKS AND INTO THE CPV AFT 05Z AND THRU NORTHERN VT
BTWN 07-09Z. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THESE REGIONS WITH SCHC ACRS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. NEXT QUESTION WL BE AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG...THINKING CT RIVER VALLEY WL SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF
CLR SKIES AND HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH SOME PATCHY
AREAS ACRS THE DEEPER MTN VALLEYS NEAR WARMER WATER AREA OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. TEMPS WL DROP BACK INTO THE U40S NEK/SLK TO
M/U 50S SLV/CPV. ALL IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.
A GENERALLY PLEASANT AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
NOAM...AND THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA WILL APPROACH
THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS NOW PRODUCING A SHIELD OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...THOSE CLOUDS MOST APPARENT IN
12Z BTV-4/15Z RAP AS A RIBBON OF 850-700MB RH. SOME MODEST PROGGED
VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT LAYER AS WELL. SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THE SHOWERS...A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. SKIES WILL TEND TO BE CLEAREST ACROSS EASTERN VT/CT
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT COOLING WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. I OPTED TO TREND TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER
SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS GENERALLY COOLEST IN
THE `DACKS AND ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPS ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AS PROGGED BY 12Z NAM
GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 TO UNDER 1000 J/KG...KEPT DOWN BY DRY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SFC HEATING WILL ALSO TEND TO LOWER AS THE
DAY GOES ON AS WELL AS HEATING SHOULD READILY PRODUCE CUMULUS
CLOUDS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE FEEL THREAT FOR
THUNDER WOULD BE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT ANY ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
PRESENCE OF LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /7-9 KFT/. HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CELLULAR ACTIVITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE
AS THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT OTHER CONVECTIVE MODES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO IS LOW. NO ENHANCED WORDING ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
NON-SEVERE T-STORMS CAPABLE OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL. POPS TREND UPWARD
THROUGH THE AFTN TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY WHEN BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING OVERLAP...BEFORE
LOWERING BY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER .25" THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS OF +7 TO +9C...IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...COOLEST IN EASTERN VT AND MILDER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC TO BL WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
ASIDE FROM SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREA...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH AFTN FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS. 850 TEMPS WARM
UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
A FEW SPOT 80 DEGREE READINGS. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS...WITH LOWS RANGING
IN THE MID 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN
PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO UNDER FULL SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON TIMING WHICH WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
PROGS ARE POINTING TOWARDS AN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROPA...BUT
THIS FAR OUT IT`S TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG/BR.
SKIES WILL START CLEAR THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS (ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO
ANTICIPATED SCATTERED NATURE. AS SHOWERS EXIT...MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MVFR...ESPECIALLY
SLK. MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT SLK AS WELL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MSS BEING LEAST-AFFECTED. LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN NORTH/NORTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING BRIEFLY LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND IFR. POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG/BR
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A LARGE REGION OF HIGH THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRETCH OF DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 706 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS...CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACRS NORTHERN
NY...THE CPV...AND MOST OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT DIVING SOUTHEAST TWD THE SLV
ATTM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
LATEST HRRR...RAP13...AND BTV 4KM SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 500 J/KG ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT THINKING A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED IN FCST FOR NORTHERN NY. TIMING
THE PRECIP HAS IT ARRIVING BTWN 0130 AND 0230 ACRS THE SLV...BTWN
0230 AND 0430Z DACKS AND INTO THE CPV AFT 05Z AND THRU NORTHERN VT
BTWN 07-09Z. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THESE REGIONS WITH SCHC ACRS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. NEXT QUESTION WL BE AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG...THINKING CT RIVER VALLEY WL SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF
CLR SKIES AND HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH SOME PATCHY
AREAS ACRS THE DEEPER MTN VALLEYS NEAR WARMER WATER AREA OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. TEMPS WL DROP BACK INTO THE U40S NEK/SLK TO
M/U 50S SLV/CPV. ALL IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.
A GENERALLY PLEASANT AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
NOAM...AND THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA WILL APPROACH
THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS NOW PRODUCING A SHIELD OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...THOSE CLOUDS MOST APPARENT IN
12Z BTV-4/15Z RAP AS A RIBBON OF 850-700MB RH. SOME MODEST PROGGED
VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT LAYER AS WELL. SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THE SHOWERS...A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. SKIES WILL TEND TO BE CLEAREST ACROSS EASTERN VT/CT
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT COOLING WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. I OPTED TO TREND TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER
SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS GENERALLY COOLEST IN
THE `DACKS AND ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPS ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AS PROGGED BY 12Z NAM
GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 TO UNDER 1000 J/KG...KEPT DOWN BY DRY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SFC HEATING WILL ALSO TEND TO LOWER AS THE
DAY GOES ON AS WELL AS HEATING SHOULD READILY PRODUCE CUMULUS
CLOUDS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE FEEL THREAT FOR
THUNDER WOULD BE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT ANY ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
PRESENCE OF LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /7-9 KFT/. HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CELLULAR ACTIVITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE
AS THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT OTHER CONVECTIVE MODES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO IS LOW. NO ENHANCED WORDING ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
NON-SEVERE T-STORMS CAPABLE OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL. POPS TREND UPWARD
THROUGH THE AFTN TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY WHEN BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING OVERLAP...BEFORE
LOWERING BY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER .25" THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS OF +7 TO +9C...IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...COOLEST IN EASTERN VT AND MILDER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC TO BL WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS.
ASIDE FROM SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREA...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH AFTN FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS. 850 TEMPS WARM
UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C...WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
A FEW SPOT 80 DEGREE READINGS. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS...WITH LOWS RANGING
IN THE MID 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN
PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO UNDER FULL SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON TIMING WHICH WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
PROGS ARE POINTING TOWARDS AN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROPA...BUT
THIS FAR OUT IT`S TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADS
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
COMES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM KSLK EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU - 12Z FRI...PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND IFR. POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND
KMPV.
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG/BR
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
532 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
STILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS A SLUG
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HRRR HAS THIS AREA WELL HANDLED...AND
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE TRENDS IN MOVING THIS AREA EAST OF OUR
CWA JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE...BUT OTHER THAN
THIS IT APPEARS ANY OTHER SHOWERS BEHIND THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME CLEARING IN WESTERN PORTIONS WHICH COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND A
NOTABLE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TIER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK AND
A HALF WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR AREA...THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SUBJECT TO ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH...WITH THE BULK OF THESE LIKELY COMING BETWEEN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S...THOUGH SOME INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER COULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE
A WELCOME PERIOD OF UNEVENTFUL WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE AXIS OF ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOONS AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS
WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE...THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
LARGELY FEATURE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER. WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF
OUR AIRMASS TAKING PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RECOVER BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S EACH DAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS LARGELY RANGING IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL WORK
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER NOTICEABLY ON
THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...BOTH SUGGEST GENERAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NEW DAY 7...WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLUG OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CLIP ART...OTHERWISE
EXPECT TAF SITES TO STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT
LINGERING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN VFR-MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
GIVEN TIGHT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
ISOLATED -SHRA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TIER 14-20Z WEDNESDAY IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...FEW CONCERNS FOR
MARINE PURPOSES...AS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH SETTING UP A PLEASANT DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE PAST HOUR. AND JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO WE HAD THE FIRST
LIGHTNING STROKE IN THE CELL NORTH OF PLATTSBURGH (WHICH BY THE
WAY HAS A LITTLE BIT OF HAIL WELL ALOFT IN IT).
LATEST LAPS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE FOR MOST OF
VERMONT, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDINESS WHICH HAVE
HELD BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
AS TYPICAL, THE FIRST CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE `DACKS. MOST OF THE 12Z/15Z RUNS OF MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER. THESE CELLS THEN DEVELOP AND PUSH
EAST AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL GREEN
MOUNTAINS ABOUT 18Z. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD THEN MEAN
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE INTO EASTERN VERMONT AFTER
4-5PM. SURFACE FRONT STILL NOT QUITE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS FIRE AHEAD OF THAT. MESO-MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH ANY STRONGER
T-STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP.
SO THE FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY TO TRY TO BETTER
TIME/LOCATE THE HIGHER LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. RELIED ON A
MIX OF BTV4, BTV6 AND HRRR MODELS. BASICALLY MAKES THE NORTHERN
HALF OF VERMONT AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT UP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR VERMONT. BTV
ALREADY REACHED 81F, SO PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE AREA,
WE COULD RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, WE`LL SEE HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ENOUGH ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO KEEP IT INTERESTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FAR
ENOUGH SEWD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER (20 POP) ACROSS PORTIONS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...AND
DRY ELSEWHERE. ALSO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER HUMIDITY BEING USHERED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
50S. 850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +11C SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE/LL NEED TO WATCH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE MAY REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS IN 00Z
GFS/NAM/BTV-4KM WRF THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SET UP A FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THERMAL TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
50S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE RATHER MODEST (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AT
BEST)...AND WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS OF NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT. IT APPEARS BASED ON PROJECTED
TIMING THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS VERMONT COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
VT AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WITH INTERVALS OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DECREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW AROUND
TROUGH WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO DRYING NW FLOW DEVELOPING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER SERN CANADA. 500 MB HT LEVEL INCREASES NOTICEABLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...S/SW FLOW WILL
RETURN...FILTERING WARMER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TREND...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING FROM L60S TO
L80S. TEMPERATURES INCREASE DURING THE WEEK WITH MAXES REACHING
THE L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE M50S IN
THE MTNS AND U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST
COMPLETELY DRY DAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PRIMARILY VFR...A MIX OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
MIST DEVELOPMENT AT MSS AND SLK.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO
THE AFTN/EVENING HRS. PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THUNDER AT PBG AND
THE VT TAFS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS...LOCAL
TURBULENCE AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
THESE TAFS UNDER THOSE EXPECTATIONS...WITH VCSH INDICATED AT SLK
AND MSS WHERE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE UNDER OVERCAST. WILL
AMEND FOR LOWER VISIBILITY.
COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBS SKIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO FULLY CLEAR OUT EXCEPT
AT SLK AND MSS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THAT REASON HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOW MIST AT MSS
AND SLK. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFTING OF CEILINGS AFTER 12Z.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS FRONT
APPROACHES...THEN TURNING NORTHERLY 4-6 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER
PERIODS OF IFR IN FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY
MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH SETTING UP A PLEASANT DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE PAST HOUR. AND JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO WE HAD THE FIRST
LIGHTNING STROKE IN THE CELL NORTH OF PLATTSBURGH (WHICH BY THE
WAY HAS A LITTLE BIT OF HAIL WELL ALOFT IN IT).
LATEST LAPS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE FOR MOST OF
VERMONT, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDINESS WHICH HAVE
HELD BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
AS TYPICAL, THE FIRST CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE `DACKS. MOST OF THE 12Z/15Z RUNS OF MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER. THESE CELLS THEN DEVELOP AND PUSH
EAST AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL GREEN
MOUNTAINS ABOUT 18Z. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD THEN MEAN
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE INTO EASTERN VERMONT AFTER
4-5PM. SURFACE FRONT STILL NOT QUITE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS FIRE AHEAD OF THAT. MESO-MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH ANY STRONGER
T-STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP.
SO THE FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY TO TRY TO BETTER
TIME/LOCATE THE HIGHER LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. RELIED ON A
MIX OF BTV4, BTV6 AND HRRR MODELS. BASICALLY MAKES THE NORTHERN
HALF OF VERMONT AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT UP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR VERMONT. BTV
ALREADY REACHED 81F, SO PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE AREA,
WE COULD RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, WE`LL SEE HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ENOUGH ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO KEEP IT INTERESTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FAR
ENOUGH SEWD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER (20 POP) ACROSS PORTIONS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...AND
DRY ELSEWHERE. ALSO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER HUMIDITY BEING USHERED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
50S. 850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +11C SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE/LL NEED TO WATCH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE MAY REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS IN 00Z
GFS/NAM/BTV-4KM WRF THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SET UP A FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THERMAL TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
50S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE RATHER MODEST (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AT
BEST)...AND WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS OF NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT. IT APPEARS BASED ON PROJECTED
TIMING THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS VERMONT COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
VT AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WITH INTERVALS OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DECREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW AROUND
TROUGH WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO DRYING NW FLOW DEVELOPING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER SERN CANADA. 500 MB HT LEVEL INCREASES NOTICEABLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...S/SW FLOW WILL
RETURN...FILTERING WARMER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TREND...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING FROM L60S TO
L80S. TEMPERATURES INCREASE DURING THE WEEK WITH MAXES REACHING
THE L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE M50S IN
THE MTNS AND U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST
COMPLETELY DRY DAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT KMPV/KMSS AND KSLK. VFR LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHRA AT KMSS STARTING
BTWN 13Z-15Z...14Z-17Z AT KSLK AND THE CPV...17Z-20Z FOR KMPV AND
KRUT. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBL STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL...CREATING PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY...S/SW WINDS AT 5-10KTS WILL SHIFT MORE W/NW.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-6KTS TUESDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR PSBL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT...ESP
AT KMPV AND KSLK.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER
PERIODS OF IFR IN FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY
MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
THEN REMAINED STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUND COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE CWA
STILL RANGES FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES SO THESE SHOWERS WILL PUT DOWN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE 3KM HRRR DOES
A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE BASIC LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND
ALONG WITH THE RAP AND NAM12...SHOWS ACTIVITY WANING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BY 02Z OR SO. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WED
AND OVERALL QUIET DAY EXPECTED FOR ENC. WILL MAINTAIN SC POP FOR
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THINKING ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOST OF PERIOD
WITH SERIES OF SHRT WVS MOVING THROUGH BROAD EASTERN TROF. INITIAL
SHRT WV WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH AREA WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL. BRIEF DRYING PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL POPS.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OVER WEEKEND...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON PSBL WEAK DAMMING EVENT SAT-MON WITH SHRT WV ENERGY INDUCING SFC
WV DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY JUST S OF AREA WITH HIGH
PRES EXTENDING INTO AREA FROM N. LEANED TO A WPC/GFS/ECMWF BLEND
INDICATING HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50% SAT INTO SUN NIGHT...DECREASING
TO CLIMO 20/30 POPS MON-TUE AS MAIN SFC WAVES MOVES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN SEVERAL DEGS
BELOW NORMAL REST OF PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT REACH 80 SOME AREAS
OVER WEEKEND IF PCPN WITH DAMMING IS MORE WDSPRD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW TIMES...VFR
CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE SITES THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH
RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS. SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AT
KEWN AND WILL LOWER VSBYS TO ABOUT ONE MILE THERE WITH 2 MILES AT
THE OTHER SITES FROM GENERALLY 09Z TO 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CEILINGS EXIST AT
PGV/ISO AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. A
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER STILL EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BUT POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE WITH CALM
WINDS...SATURATED GROUND...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN REDUCED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.
AFTER SUNRISE...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW LOW LEVELS TO MIX OUT
AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT OUTSIDE OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WDSPRD SUB-VFR PSBL
SAT-SUN WITH DAMMING EVENT BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM TUESDAY...WINDS GENERALLY N/NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND
SHOULD BACK TO MORE NW TOWARD MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR/NAM12
WIND FORECAST. SEAS CONTINUES IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE WITH 11-12
SECOND SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE BERTHA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS BERTHA LIFTS NE...AND LONG PERIOD
SWELL SUBSIDES. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND SCA A FEW
HOURS FOR WATERS BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE.
BACKING WINDS WED...NW EARLY BECOMING S/SW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN SHIFT TO NE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO E AND SE OVER WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY TO S.
BLEND OF WW3..NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST FOR SEAS DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS
HOLDING AROUND 3-4 FT WITH PRE AND POST FRONTAL FLOW INTO
FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY 2-3 FT SAT-SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CTC
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
209 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE SMALL
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SSE OF CAPE
FEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY NE...AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. ACROSS THE
INLAND COUNTIES...DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA VIA
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS...ALONG WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. A FEW POPCORN TYPE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DECREASING POP TREND
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT AND INCREASE MAX
TEMPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT THE NEXT
UPDATE DUE TO ADDITIONAL INSOLATION REACHING THE SFC THEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...RADAR REVEALS A GROWING AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 30-100 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR...BUT A LONG RADAR LOOP REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO GET IN ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE I
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHPORT-BALD
HEAD ISLAND AREA. A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ANCHOR POINT
FOR THIS RAINFALL...AND DETERMINING THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE IS
INSTRUMENTAL TO MAKING AN ACCURATE RAINFALL FORECAST. THE HRRR MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION AND ADVECTS IT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BETWEEN 16-17Z. ON THIS PATH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OCEAN WITH THE WETTEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAND BETWEEN NOW AND
NOON.
OTHER THAN CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND POPS/PRECIP AMOUNT...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE
GONE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES
ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THE FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT EXCEPT OVERNIGHT WHEN MVFR
AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY COULD OCCUR FROM REDUCED HORIZONTAL
VSBY FROM FOG. WILL KEEP VCNTY SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THE POPCORN
TYPE CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER IN THE VERTICAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH OR VCTS WHERE APPROPRIATE UNTIL
SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME CALM FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IF FOG AFTER 05Z. STAYED WITH BR ALL TERMINALS BUT NEXT
UPDATE WILL NEED TO FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE LIFR FROM DENSE FOG. FOR
WEDNESDAY...SCT TO BKN CU CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT THE LATEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RAISED FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...DUE TO SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE ILM SC WATERS. BOTH WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.
BERTHA SWELLS NOW AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS...AND RUNNING HIGHER
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING WATERS FROM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...LATEST 41110 BUOY REPORTING SIGNIFICANT
SEAS UP TO 5 FT...AND THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41036 REPORTING 8+ FT.
BOTH BUOYS INDICATE SIG. SEAS PREDOMINATELY FROM BERTHA SWELL.
PERIODS RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 SECONDS. FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...LATEST
EDISTO BUOY REPORTED UP TO 7 FT SIG. SEAS...WITH WIND DRIVEN WAVES
A BETTER CONTRIBUTING THEN WHATS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ILM NC
WATERS.
FOR WINDS...THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT AFTER
THE DEPARTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR...WILL YIELD N TO NE WINDS AT 10-15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING TO NW TO NNW AT 10 KT DURING TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY
LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS
SWIRL AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MISSING THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM EDT. LACK OF
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LOW IS HINDERING ANALYSIS...BUT NOAA
BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON HAS NOT GUSTED ANY HIGHER THAN 17
KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM 3 AM AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND OUR FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1043 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE SMALL
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SSE OF CAPE
FEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY NE...AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. ACROSS THE
INLAND COUNTIES...DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA VIA
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS...ALONG WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. A FEW POPCORN TYPE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DECREASING POP TREND
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT AND INCREASE MAX
TEMPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT THE NEXT
UPDATE DUE TO ADDITIONAL INSOLATION REACHING THE SFC THEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...RADAR REVEALS A GROWING AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 30-100 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR...BUT A LONG RADAR LOOP REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO GET IN ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE I
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHPORT-BALD
HEAD ISLAND AREA. A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ANCHOR POINT
FOR THIS RAINFALL...AND DETERMINING THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE IS
INSTRUMENTAL TO MAKING AN ACCURATE RAINFALL FORECAST. THE HRRR MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION AND ADVECTS IT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BETWEEN 16-17Z. ON THIS PATH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OCEAN WITH THE WETTEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAND BETWEEN NOW AND
NOON.
OTHER THAN CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND POPS/PRECIP AMOUNT...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE
GONE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES
ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THE FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. NOT LOOKING
FOR THAT MUCH CONVECTION TODAY...MAYBE ILM. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL FLING SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ONSHORE TO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING ITS
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH LESS FOG/STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RAISED FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...DUE TO SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE ILM SC WATERS. BOTH WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.
BERTHA SWELLS NOW AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS...AND RUNNING HIGHER
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING WATERS FROM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...LATEST 41110 BUOY REPORTING SIGNIFICANT
SEAS UP TO 5 FT...AND THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41036 REPORTING 8+ FT.
BOTH BUOYS INDICATE SIG. SEAS PREDOMINATELY FROM BERTHA SWELL.
PERIODS RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 SECONDS. FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...LATEST
EDISTO BUOY REPORTED UP TO 7 FT SIG. SEAS...WITH WIND DRIVEN WAVES
A BETTER CONTRIBUTING THEN WHATS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ILM NC
WATERS.
FOR WINDS...THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT AFTER
THE DEPARTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR...WILL YIELD N TO NE WINDS AT 10-15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING TO NW TO NNW AT 10 KT DURING TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY
LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS
SWIRL AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MISSING THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM EDT. LACK OF
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LOW IS HINDERING ANALYSIS...BUT NOAA
BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON HAS NOT GUSTED ANY HIGHER THAN 17
KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM 3 AM AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND OUR FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...RADAR REVEALS A GROWING AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 30-100 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR...BUT A LONG RADAR LOOP REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO GET IN ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE I
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHPORT-BALD
HEAD ISLAND AREA. A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ANCHOR POINT
FOR THIS RAINFALL...AND DETERMINING THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE IS
INSTRUMENTAL TO MAKING AN ACCURATE RAINFALL FORECAST. THE HRRR MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION AND ADVECTS IT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BETWEEN 16-17Z. ON THIS PATH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OCEAN WITH THE WETTEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAND BETWEEN NOW AND
NOON.
OTHER THAN CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND POPS/PRECIP AMOUNT...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE
GONE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES
ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THE FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. NOT LOOKING
FOR THAT MUCH CONVECTION TODAY...MAYBE ILM. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL FLING SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ONSHORE TO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING ITS
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH LESS FOG/STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY
LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS
SWIRL AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MISSING THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM EDT. LACK OF
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LOW IS HINDERING ANALYSIS...BUT NOAA
BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON HAS NOT GUSTED ANY HIGHER THAN 17
KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM 3 AM AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND OUR FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
646 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE LATEST IR FOG
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD. UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SOME LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED...AND IT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT VISIBILITIES WERE LOWEST...PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KHNZ AND FOR A TIME NEAR KTTA. AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW...THE HRRR WRF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOWER-VISIBILITY FOG MAINLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTHEAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT AND THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
GRIDDED FORECAST WILL NOTE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR WRF ARE DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THE NAM HAS
COPIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER A QUARTER-INCH IN A LARGE PART OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LEANED WITH THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE DRIER
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT FORECAST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE...AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE
DAY ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO SLOWLY
FALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED VERY BRIEFLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1 WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM INTERSTATE 95 EAST. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND WHEN MORNING
CLOUDS ARE CONSIDERED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
UNDER A NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A SMALL VOLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
POSSIBLY BROKEN FOR A PERIOD IF THE GFS VERIFIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BEST TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND MAY NOTE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ITS QPF DOES NOTE A MINOR HUNDREDTH OR SO
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY MIX WELL BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND A
DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MIXING LAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WEAK 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. THE MEAN AIR MASS STARTS TO MOISTEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA IN
VIRGINIA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE WET NAM AND
SHOW A DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS OF A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...OR 90 TO 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70. -DJF
THU/THU NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU/THU NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENED WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS /BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA TOWARD THE NC BORDER LATE THU.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
TEMPERATURES...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. AT THIS TIME WILL
INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~90F SOUTH TO 83-85F NEAR THE VA BORDER.
DESTABILIZATION/FORCING WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT AND OF SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE. AT THIS
TIME WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FRI-MON. DESPITE GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LENDS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO PRECISE DETAILS (I.E. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING) FOR THE
CAROLINAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI/SAT...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
AND RETROGRADE INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN/MON...RESULTING IN A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF NNW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS.
GIVEN AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN JUXTAPOSED WITH MID-SUMMER
MOISTURE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY SAT/SUN. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED AROUND THE
TRIAD...WITH A SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. FOG HAD DEVELOPED...WITH A NARROW BAND OF
THE LOWEST VISIBILITY FROM KRDU NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHERE THE HRRR
WRF MODEL SHOWED THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG POTENTIAL
ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WHERE THERE WERE FEWER MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EARLIER...THEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A TAF
POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SUCH
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER
OVERNIGHT.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS
HURRICANE BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. NOT LOOKING
FOR THAT MUCH CONVECTION TODAY...MAYBE ILM. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL FLING SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ONSHORE TO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING ITS
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH LESS FOG/STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND
OUR FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A
DRYING TREND DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE LATEST IR FOG
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD. UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SOME LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED...AND IT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT VISIBILITIES WERE LOWEST...PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KHNZ AND FOR A TIME NEAR KTTA. AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW...THE HRRR WRF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOWER-VISIBILITY FOG MAINLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTHEAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT AND THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
GRIDDED FORECAST WILL NOTE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR WRF ARE DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THE NAM HAS
COPIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER A QUARTER-INCH IN A LARGE PART OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LEANED WITH THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE DRIER
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT FORECAST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE...AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE
DAY ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO SLOWLY
FALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED VERY BRIEFLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1 WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM INTERSTATE 95 EAST. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND WHEN MORNING
CLOUDS ARE CONSIDERED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
UNDER A NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A SMALL VOLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
POSSIBLY BROKEN FOR A PERIOD IF THE GFS VERIFIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BEST TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND MAY NOTE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ITS QPF DOES NOTE A MINOR HUNDREDTH OR SO
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY MIX WELL BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND A
DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MIXING LAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WEAK 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. THE MEAN AIR MASS STARTS TO MOISTEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA IN
VIRGINIA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE WET NAM AND
SHOW A DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS OF A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...OR 90 TO 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70. -DJF
THU/THU NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU/THU NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENED WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS /BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA TOWARD THE NC BORDER LATE THU.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
TEMPERATURES...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. AT THIS TIME WILL
INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~90F SOUTH TO 83-85F NEAR THE VA BORDER.
DESTABILIZATION/FORCING WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT AND OF SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE. AT THIS
TIME WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FRI-MON. DESPITE GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LENDS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO PRECISE DETAILS (I.E. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING) FOR THE
CAROLINAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI/SAT...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
AND RETROGRADE INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN/MON...RESULTING IN A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF NNW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS.
GIVEN AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN JUXTAPOSED WITH MID-SUMMER
MOISTURE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY SAT/SUN. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES COMBINED WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS
TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD KINT...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS VISIBLE
UNDERNEATH HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOG HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LIGHT FOG
SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE HRRR WRF MODEL SHOWING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WHERE THERE ARE FEWER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT 07Z TO
12Z. THIS SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AT KRWI AND KRDU. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN A TAF POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SUCH TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS
HURRICANE BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE
COAST. THROUGH 10Z THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA
/MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL
BE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS BUT CHANCES OF IFR
CIGS APPEAR LOW. THE CONVECTIVE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD BECOME
PATCHY -RA AFTER 10Z OR SO AS DEEPER LIFT ABATES. -RA SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KFLO/KLBT MVFR VSBYS IN BR EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOWER TO LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FG/ST AROUND 09Z. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT VFR IN THE MORNING HOURS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD ABATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND
OUR FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A
DRYING TREND DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE LATEST IR FOG
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD. UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SOME LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED...AND IT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT VISIBILITIES WERE LOWEST...PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KHNZ AND FOR A TIME NEAR KTTA. AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW...THE HRRR WRF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOWER-VISIBILITY FOG MAINLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTHEAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT AND THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
GRIDDED FORECAST WILL NOTE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR WRF ARE DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THE NAM HAS
COPIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER A QUARTER-INCH IN A LARGE PART OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LEANED WITH THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE DRIER
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT FORECAST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE...AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE
DAY ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO SLOWLY
FALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED VERY BRIEFLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1 WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM INTERSTATE 95 EAST. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND WHEN MORNING
CLOUDS ARE CONSIDERED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
UNDER A NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A SMALL VOLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
POSSIBLY BROKEN FOR A PERIOD IF THE GFS VERIFIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BEST TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND MAY NOTE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ITS QPF DOES NOTE A MINOR HUNDREDTH OR SO
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY MIX WELL BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND A
DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MIXING LAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WEAK 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. THE MEAN AIR MASS STARTS TO MOISTEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA IN
VIRGINIA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE WET NAM AND
SHOW A DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS OF A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...OR 90 TO 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70. -DJF
THU/THU NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU/THU NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENED WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS /BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA TOWARD THE NC BORDER LATE THU.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
TEMPERATURES...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. AT THIS TIME WILL
INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~90F SOUTH TO 83-85F NEAR THE VA BORDER.
DESTABILIZATION/FORCING WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT AND OF SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE. AT THIS
TIME WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
FORECAST THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY BEING JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH PARTICULARLY
ON THE GFS...BUT THE GFS GENERATES MUCH MORE QPF THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE 850MB FRONT BEING FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THAT LATTER MODEL HAS THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...AND NEARER ANY WAVES THAT MAY MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.
THE UPPER FLOW...INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...IS CONFLUENT
AND FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE FORECAST RESULT WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64...HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE LEAST CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE ECMWF TEND TO FAVOR LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THUNDER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.
IF THE COARSE SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING COULD BE QUITE MURKY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES LITTLE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE LIMITED QPF IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
VERIFY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE
DUE TO TIMING AND FEATURE LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THE DAY SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
LIFT...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KINT TO KGSB.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW ON THE ECMWF...AND
A MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS...RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING...LOCATION...AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAINY DAY
INTO AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF U.S. 64. WILL NOT MENTION LIKELY
CHANCES THERE THIS FAR OUT BUT THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW SOLIDLY HIGH
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...
AT LEAST BRIEFLY...OCCUR BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OR WEAK SURFACE
LOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT HOW WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF
THE GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS DIFFER BY OVER 15 DEGREES...BUT
IT IS INTERESTING...FOR EXAMPLE...HOW CONSISTENT RAW GFS AND ECMWF
GRIDDED HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF U.S. 64 AND IN THE
TRIAD...WARMING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE. WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY...MOSTLY 80
TO 85 MONDAY IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES COMBINED WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS
TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD KINT...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS VISIBLE
UNDERNEATH HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOG HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LIGHT FOG
SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE HRRR WRF MODEL SHOWING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WHERE THERE ARE FEWER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT 07Z TO
12Z. THIS SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LOWEST VISIBLITY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AT KRWI AND KRDU. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN A TAF POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SUCH TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 948 PM MONDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE THE STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THE CURRENT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID 60S NW... AND 70+ IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. IT
DOES APPEAR... BASED ON SATELLITE DATA... THAT THE VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT HAD BEEN DENSE EARLIER AS FAR WEST AS FAY AND RDU...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS NEARLY CALM UNDER
WEAK RIDGING... THIS SHOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLING
TO THE SATURATION POINT... ESPECIALLY SE OF THE TRIAD REGION BETWEEN
06Z-12Z. WE WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG IN ALL BUT THE TRIAD... AND PLACE
PATCHY FOG OVER IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE... NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 65-70.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
STILL BE NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE
AGAIN. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN COURTESY OF THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER
TODAYS VALUES...WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: EASTERN US TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALBEIT UNDER WEAKENING INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH INCREASINGLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HELP TO
PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIP/RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE RATHER SCARCE...LIMITED BY THE W-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE WHILE ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA. ALL OF THIS WHILE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING POOR DIURNAL
TIMING WHICH IS FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTEAD...THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT LOOK TO
INTERCEPT THE LINGERING FRONT ZONE.
TEMPERATURES... WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES PROJECTED AOA 15-20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...
WHICH SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. AS FRONT SLIPS
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL COOL OFF A GOOD BIT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 80S NORTH
TO AROUND 90 SOUTH. LOWS
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY BEING JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH PARTICULARLY ON THE GFS...BUT THE GFS GENERATES MUCH MORE QPF
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE 850MB FRONT BEING
FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 850MB
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
THAT LATTER MODEL HAS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH
AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...AND NEARER ANY WAVES THAT MAY MOVE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE UPPER FLOW...INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS TO
OUR WEST...IS CONFLUENT AND FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE FORECAST RESULT
WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF U.S. 64...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE LEAST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...BUT COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE ECMWF TEND
TO FAVOR LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THUNDER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.
IF THE COARSE SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING COULD BE QUITE MURKY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES LITTLE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE LIMITED QPF IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
VERIFY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE
DUE TO TIMING AND FEATURE LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THE DAY SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
LIFT...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KINT TO KGSB.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW ON THE ECMWF...AND
A MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS...RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING...LOCATION...AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAINY DAY
INTO AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF U.S. 64. WILL NOT MENTION LIKELY
CHANCES THERE THIS FAR OUT BUT THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW SOLIDLY HIGH
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...
AT LEAST BRIEFLY...OCCUR BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OR WEAK SURFACE
LOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT HOW WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF
THE GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS DIFFER BY OVER 15 DEGREES...BUT
IT IS INTERESTING...FOR EXAMPLE...HOW CONSISTENT RAW GFS AND ECMWF
GRIDDED HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF U.S. 64 AND IN THE
TRIAD...WARMING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE. WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY...MOSTLY 80
TO 85 MONDAY IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES COMBINED WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS
TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD KINT...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS VISIBLE
UNDERNEATH HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOG HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LIGHT FOG
SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE HRRR WRF MODEL SHOWING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WHERE THERE ARE FEWER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT 07Z TO
12Z. THIS SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LOWEST VISIBLITY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AT KRWI AND KRDU. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN A TAF POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SUCH TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...PWB/KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING BUT NOT AS SLOW AS OVER THE WEEKEND. SO THE SLOWER
MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND A
HALF COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL
IMPRESSIVE SO GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH
BUT ALSO TEND TO LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED AND SLOWED POP INCREASE FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HRRR/RUC RUN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL IMPRESSIVE SO
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALSO TEND TO
LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED AND SLOWED POP INCREASE FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HRRR/RUC RUN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL IMPRESSIVE SO
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALSO TEND TO
LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED AND SLOWED POP INCREASE FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HRRR/RUC RUN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME
SHOWERS COULD GET INTO NW OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
303 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL IMPRESSIVE SO
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALSO TEND TO
LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME
SHOWERS COULD GET INTO NW OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. DRY FOR A MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT...BUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA MAY BE NEARING
TOLEDO AND THE LAKE NEAR 6 AM. WITH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF CONVECTION EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER METMOS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THIS EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. COULD WELL BE A LULL IN CONVECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL
JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TREND AFTER THAT IS A
RETURN OF DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WHICH MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THAT ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET
INTO NW OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKE INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN
TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR THE WEEKEND. SO AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRIEF BRING
WAVES INTO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. OTHERWISE 2 FEET OR LESS WILL BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
811 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE TONIGHT...AND LAST INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY A LONE SHOWER LEFT. NICE LINE OF TCU OUTSIDE THE
OFFICE.
ANOTHER UPDATE SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATED PACKAGE AT 6 PM...TO TAKE OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXCEPT
FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NE PART OF CENTRAL PA.
STILL LOOKING OVER DATA ETC...WILL DO MORE UPDATES AS
NEEDED.
AFT DISCUSSION BELOW.
RUC SHOWS CAPES IN THE 500-1500J RANGE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH
OF A POTENT JET STREAK...WE ARE SEEING RADAR GETTING MORE ACTIVE
AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO POP IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS POPCORN RANDOM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FADE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT
21Z. SHOULD LEAD TO A FINE MID SUMMER EVENING IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL AND DRY...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER
THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG LATER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE GR LAKES WILL BRING THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL FINE MID SUMMER DAYS TO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS
HINT AT A WEAK SPOKE OF VORTICITY SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE NERN
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE GEFS DOESN`T SUPPORT THIS AND WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO RISE...I DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY
THE ALREADY SMALL POPS. I WOUDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...BUT I OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC WORDING FOR THE
FORECAST...LEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY PLEASANT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...STILL A TAD
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWING BRIEF DEAMPLIFICATION BEHIND THE SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN OF THE
FAMILIAR WRN RIDGE/ERN NOAM TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR
MOST OF THE SUMMER.
AMPLIFICATION OF SERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE ERN U.S.
LATE-PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEWD PUSH OF A COLD FRONT INITIALLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO DISPLACE A QSTRNY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL APPLCHNS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 06/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE PLACEMENT OF MAIN
PCPN AXIS ASSOCD WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES MOVG ALONG THE WAVY
BOUNDARY. A CONSENSUS BLEND STILL FAVORS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA /VA INTO THE CAROLINAS/ WHERE THE BEST MSTR/PWS WILL
RESIDE - ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE FAR SWRN/SCNTRL
ZONES THIS WEEKEND AS THIS AREA WILL BE VULNERABLE ON THE NRN EDGE
OF MSTR GRADIENT/DEVELOPING SELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
NORTH TO EAST LLVL FLOW TO THE S OF NEW ENGLAND HP SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND PERHAPS COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS
/ASSUMING CLR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY DRY AIR/. PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN
DEVELOPING ESE FLOW MAY ALSO ACT TO TEMPER DAYTIME TEMPS WHILE
POTENTIALLY KEEPING THINGS WARMER AT NIGHT. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY MAJOR WARMING TRENDS.
SPREAD BTWN OP GFS/ECMWF REALLY INCREASES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE NWD WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
SUPPRESSED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR ECMWF SOLN WHICH BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THRU THE AREA ON WED FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL DOWN IN ITS
WAKE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN AND LARGE MODEL
SPREAD/DETAIL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTOONA IS THE LONE HOLDOUT WITH A 2600` CEILING AS OF 2PM...BUT
THIS TOO SHOULD RISE AND MIX OUT BEFORE TOO LONG. OTHER THAN A HIT
AND MISS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
AS EVENING APPROACHES..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FADE.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS
DRIER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF NON-EVENTFUL WEATHER
AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAPES IN THE 1000-15000J RANGE OVER
NORTHERN PA IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE THE MODE CORRECT AND SUPPORTS THE
NEAR TERM IDEA OF KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OFMY FCST AREA.
CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE STORMS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CORES IN
SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...MEANING SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN A FEW STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
STAY MINIMAL TODAY WITH MOST STORMS BEING PULSE TYPES AND LACKING
OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN AS
ALL INDICATORS SHOW INSTABILITY DWINDLING QUICKLY. I KEPT A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER
LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MOD 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE WILL BE VERY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER JET STREAK IS MADE TO DIVE INTO SWRN
PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS GENERATE STRONG SHEAR AND A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE ON AND TO THE LEFT OF THE NOSE OF THIS
UPPER JET STREAK. INSTABILITY AS ALWAYS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SUN WE CAN MANAGE...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FROM SPC...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ARE ELEVATED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN YET ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW I HAVE TEMPS DIALED A NOTCH BELOW TODAY`S READINGS GIVEN
THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUALITY/REFRESHING LOW PWAT AIRMASS BEING DIRECTED EQUATORWARD
VIA NLY FLOW BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO
SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN TIER ZONES EARLY WED NGT.
LG SCALE FORCING ON SW FRINGE OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING MID-UPPER LVL
TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 6 C/KM ASSOCD WITH -15C AT 500MB AND ANOMALOUS H7 TEMPS MAY
INITIATE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER NRN-NERN SXNS ON THU.
GRIDDED SKY COVER MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE SET-UP
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A BKN CU FIELD TO DVLP BY AFTN.
OTHERWISE..EXPECT A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
AND 5-10KT NNW WIND.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND 500MB HEIGHT RISES SHOULD GRADUALLY REPLACE
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/CYC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION FRI-
SUN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER
GRT LKS/SERN CANADA SHOULD PROVIDE A STRING OF DRY WX WITH
PLEASANT DAYS AND RELATIVELY COOL NGTS. 05/12Z MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN SOUTH OF PA
ALONG A NW/SE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
FROM THE MID MO/LWR OH VLYS INTO THE SRN/CNTRL APPLCHNS AND SRN
MID-ATLC/SE STATES. THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCR MSTR/SLY WINDS CONSISTENT
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HP...WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WANDERS INTO
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH IN AND AROUND BRADFORD...AND POSSIBLYINTO
WILLIAMSPORT AFTER 20Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO FADE AS WE LOSE THE SUN.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAPES IN THE 1000-15000J RANGE OVER
NORTHERN PA IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE THE MODE CORRECT AND SUPPORTS THE
NEAR TERM IDEA OF KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALFOF
MY FCST AREA.
CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE STORMS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CORES IN
SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...MEANING SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN A FEW STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
STAY MINIMAL TODAY WITH MOST STORMS BEING PULSE TYPES AND LACKING
OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN AS
ALL INDICATORS SHOW INSTABILITY DWINDLING QUICKLY. I KEPT A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER
LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MOD 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE WILL BE VERY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER JET STREAK IS MADE TO DIVE INTO SWRN
PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS GENERATE STRONG SHEAR AND A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE ON AND TO THE LEFT OF THE NOSE OF THIS
UPPER JET STREAK. INSTABILITY AS ALWAYS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SUN WE CAN MANAGE...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FROM SPC...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ARE ELEVATED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN YET ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW I HAVE TEMPS DIALED A NOTCH BELOW TODAY`S READINGS GIVEN
THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WANDERS INTO
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH IN AND AROUND BRADFORD...AND POSSIBILY
INTO WILLIAMSPORT AFTER 20Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO FADE AS WE LOSE THE SUN.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL FOLLOW
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED LEAVING MOST OF THE
REGION BRIGHT AND SUNNY...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT HAZY. CLOUDS ARE
ENCROACHING OVER THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW WERE BLENDED WITH THE 03Z SREF TO
PAINT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE DETAILS INTO OUR POP AND WEATHER
GRID DATABASE FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA THAT
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT EDGES TWD THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING INTO
THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ENDING AT 00Z WED RANGE FROM ONE-
TENTH...TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN THE FAR SE.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A HIGH TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SERN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT /AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ SHOULD DECREASE IN CVRG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CONCERNED THAT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG /90 KT/ 300 MB JET AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER UVVEL/STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
WILL SPARK A SEVERAL TO 6-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSRA PRECEDING A SECONDARY CFRONT VERY EARLY WED ACROSS THE
FAR WEST...AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES.
THE POTENTIAL FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY CFRONT SHOULD BE THE LAST DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL HERE IN CENTRAL PA FOR AT LEAST 2-3 DAYS. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR DOES HOWEVER INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS
NRN PENN IN THE MORNING...AND A RIBBON OF 50-60 KT SHEAR ACRS
SOUTHERN PENN LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DY2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY FOR GENERAL
THUNDER...WITH THE STG-SVR STORM THREAT LIMITED BY THE APPARENT
LACK OF DEEP LYR MSTR/AVG PWS AND CAPE. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS INCREASED TO A SEE TEXT /OR EVEN A COMPACT SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS PENN/ WITH LATER UPDATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING AND A RELATIVE MIN OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE STATE AFTER 21Z WED...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /50-70
PERCENT/ WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF 10AM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND SELINSGROVE.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY MID DAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE SE HALF OF
CWA...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NW WILL BRING
LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCT MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY NW.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
749 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL COVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SURGE OF COOLER...DRIER AIR AND SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA
WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CURRENT TIGHT...ZERO - 3 DEG F TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AND AN
AIR TO RIVER/STREAM TEMP DIFF OF AROUND 20F WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS LEADING UP TO...AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VSBYS IN THE DEEPEST/COOLEST VALLEYS OF NRN PENN COULD
DIP BRIEFLY BELOW 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.
QUASI-STNRY/RELATIVELY WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM GRAND RAPIDS
MICHIGAN...TO NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 08Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MTNS...LYCOMING VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS BEFORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ENCROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD BASK IN MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...THANKS TO THE
SFC RIDGE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT LINGERING THERE
UNTIL 00Z WED.
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW WERE BLENDED WITH THE 03Z SREF TO
PAINT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE DETAILS INTO OUR POP AND WEATHER
GRID DATABASE FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA THAT
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT EDGES TWD THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING INTO
THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
MU CAPES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG IN MOST PLACES
BETWEEN 16-20Z...WITH A POCKET OF 1500 J/KG CAPE PRECEDING THE
AREA OF MOST NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ENDING AT 00Z WED RANGE FROM ONE-TENTH...TO
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN THE FAR SE.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A HIGH TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SERN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT /AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ SHOULD DECREASE IN CVRG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CONCERNED THAT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG /90 KT/ 300 MB JET AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER UVVEL/STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
WILL SPARK A SEVERAL TO 6-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSRA PRECEDING A SECONDARY CFRONT VERY EARLY WED ACROSS THE
FAR WEST...AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES.
THE POTENTIAL FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY CFRONT SHOULD BE THE LAST DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL HERE IN CENTRAL PA FOR AT LEAST 2-3 DAYS. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR DOES HOWEVER INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS
NRN PENN IN THE MORNING...AND A RIBBON OF 50-60 KT SHEAR ACRS
SOUTHERN PENN LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DY2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY FOR GENERAL
THUNDER...WITH THE STG-SVR STORM THREAT LIMITED BY THE APPARENT
LACK OF DEEP LYR MSTR/AVG PWS AND CAPE. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS INCREASED TO A SEE TEXT /OR EVEN A COMPACT SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS PENN/ WITH LATER UPDATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING AND A RELATIVE MIN OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE STATE AFTER 21Z WED...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /50-70
PERCENT/ WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BY 12Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 13-14Z. FOG MAY
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT KIPT WITH THICKEST FOG SETTLED IN THE WIDE
RIVER VALLEY THERE.
FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE SE HALF OF
CWA...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NW WILL BRING
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MID/LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS AROUND KBFD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSS FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
SCT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS /MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/. SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY NW.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL COVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SURGE OF COOLER...DRIER AIR AND SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA
WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CURRENT TIGHT...ZERO - 3 DEG F TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AND AN
AIR TO RIVER/STREAM TEMP DIFF OF AROUND 20F WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS LEADING UP TO...AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VSBYS IN THE DEEPEST/COOLEST VALLEYS OF NRN PENN COULD
DIP BRIEFLY BELOW 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.
QUASI-STNRY/RELATIVELY WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM GRAND RAPIDS
MICHIGAN...TO NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 08Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MTNS...LYCOMING VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS BEFORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ENCROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD BASK IN MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...THANKS TO THE
SFC RIDGE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT LINGERING THERE
UNTIL 00Z WED.
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW WERE BLENDED WITH THE 03Z SREF TO
PAINT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE DETAILS INTO OUR POP AND WEATHER
GRID DATABASE FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA THAT
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT EDGES TWD THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING INTO
THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
MU CAPES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG IN MOST PLACES
BETWEEN 16-20Z...WITH A POCKET OF 1500 J/KG CAPE PRECEDING THE
AREA OF MOST NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ENDING AT 00Z WED RANGE FROM ONE-TENTH...TO
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN THE FAR SE.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A HIGH TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SERN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT /AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ SHOULD DECREASE IN CVRG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CONCERNED THAT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG /90 KT/ 300 MB JET AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER UVVEL/STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
WILL SPARK A SEVERAL TO 6-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSRA PRECEDING A SECONDARY CFRONT VERY EARLY WED ACROSS THE
FAR WEST...AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES.
THE POTENTIAL FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY CFRONT SHOULD BE THE LAST DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL HERE IN CENTRAL PA FOR AT LEAST 2-3 DAYS. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR DOES HOWEVER INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS
NRN PENN IN THE MORNING...AND A RIBBON OF 50-60 KT SHEAR ACRS
SOUTHERN PENN LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DY2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY FOR GENERAL
THUNDER...WITH THE STG-SVR STORM THREAT LIMITED BY THE APPARENT
LACK OF DEEP LYR MSTR/AVG PWS AND CAPE. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS INCREASED TO A SEE TEXT /OR EVEN A COMPACT SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS PENN/ WITH LATER UPDATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING AND A RELATIVE MIN OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE STATE AFTER 21Z WED...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /50-70
PERCENT/ WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH NOT AS MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AS LAST NIGHT SO FOG WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS POSS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE SE HALF OF
CWA...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NW WILL BRING
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
SCT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS /MAINLY NORTHWEST/. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN
FOR WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY NW.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN NE THROUGH PA. DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL RATHER LOW WITH VALUES HOLDING IN THE 50S. THIS IS
MINIMIZING OUR INSTABILITY LEVELS DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS.
A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS...HOWEVER...ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF OUR MOISTURE THROUGH
THE TAF PD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF AREAS
AROUND 12Z. OTW...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...
AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IL SW TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
STATE. HRRR FURTHER CONCURS WITH THIS SOLUTION SO OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASED PARTIAL CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
OTW...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MID STATE NE TO PA. INSTABILITY
CHARTS REVEAL THAT NOT MUCH OF ANY CAPE RETURN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WITH THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...NO POPS WILL BE ADDED TO TODAY`S FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
SO...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE A LITTLE ADDED CLOUD COVER TO
THE GRIDS. UPDATES WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE, WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
TENNESSEE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING RADIATION FOG AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, LOOK
FOR VFR WX ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE
VIRGINIAS ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO OKLAHOMA, WAS KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 2AM, TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TODAY TO
KEEP US LOCKED INTO OUR CURRENT RAIN-FREE PATTERN. WITH MAXIMUM
PERCENT SUNSHINE EXPECTED, BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO THE SAME LEVELS AS YESTERDAY. CSV MAY EVEN BREAK THEIR 3-DAY
STREAK OF MAXING OUT AT 83 DEGREES, AND NUDGE ON UP TO 84.
YARDS AND GARDENS OVER MANY AREAS ARE NEEDING RAIN PRETTY BADLY AND,
FORTUNATELY, WE HAVE REASON TO BE HOPEFUL FOR A GRADUAL CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. IF WE LOOK TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, UP OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WE SEE NOCTURNAL TSTMS IN PROGRESS, AND A HINT
OF THE CHANGES THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.
LOOK FOR EASTERN MISSOURI TO BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. AS INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW, AND KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND AS A LOW LEVEL COL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OUT OF MISSOURI INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TN, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY HERE INT EH MID-STATE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE STORMS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WON`T DO US ANY GOOD, SINCE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING MORE
SOUTHWARD THAT EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT BEST CAPE TO BE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT
AND THEN SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN KY AND
NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED RW/TRW
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT, ENHANCED BY A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN OUR NORTHWEST BY 12Z WED.
AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, CAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS). MEANWHILE, EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO FIRE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
SOME OF THOSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR CWA AND MAY NOT PENETRATE OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DYING OUT.
BY THURSDAY, CAPES OVER OUR AREA INCREASE TO 2500+ J/KG, AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD AND KICK OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH OUR HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OUR HIGH TEMPS ON
THU WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVERHEAD. WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS GIVING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPS
FOR THUR, AM HESITANT TO SHAVE TOO MUCH OFF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
THUS, WILL PROBABLY ONLY LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS BY 1 OR 2 DEGS.
MOS POPS AREN`T MUCH HELP WITH THIS TYPE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN, AND TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE RAIN CHANCE. THEREFORE, WILL GO
QUITE A BIT ABOVE MOS POP NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RATHER THAN GO WITH THE 20-30% MOS POPS FOR THU, WILL GO MORE LIKE
30-50%.
LONG TERM...AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BELIEVE GFS IS NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. IT SEEMS TO KEEP MAX TEMPS TOO WARM. ON THE OTHER
HAND, DON`T REALLY BUY THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH A GENERALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR CLIMO NORMS. REGARDING POPS IN THE
EXTENDED, BELIEVE THE MEX NUMBERS MAY BE A BIT HIGH AND WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD CLIMO BY THE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
941 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IL SW TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
STATE. HRRR FURTHER CONCURS WITH THIS SOLUTION SO OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASED PARTIAL CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
OTW...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MID STATE NE TO PA. INSTABILITY
CHARTS REVEAL THAT NOT MUCH OF ANY CAPE RETURN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WITH THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...NO POPS WILL BE ADDED TO TODAY`S FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
SO...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE A LITTLE ADDED CLOUD COVER TO
THE GRIDS. UPDATES WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE, WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
TENNESSEE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING RADIATION FOG AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, LOOK
FOR VFR WX ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE
VIRGINIAS ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO OKLAHOMA, WAS KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 2AM, TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TODAY TO
KEEP US LOCKED INTO OUR CURRENT RAIN-FREE PATTERN. WITH MAXIMUM
PERCENT SUNSHINE EXPECTED, BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO THE SAME LEVELS AS YESTERDAY. CSV MAY EVEN BREAK THEIR 3-DAY
STREAK OF MAXING OUT AT 83 DEGREES, AND NUDGE ON UP TO 84.
YARDS AND GARDENS OVER MANY AREAS ARE NEEDING RAIN PRETTY BADLY AND,
FORTUNATELY, WE HAVE REASON TO BE HOPEFUL FOR A GRADUAL CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. IF WE LOOK TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, UP OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WE SEE NOCTURNAL TSTMS IN PROGRESS, AND A HINT
OF THE CHANGES THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.
LOOK FOR EASTERN MISSOURI TO BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. AS INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW, AND KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND AS A LOW LEVEL COL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OUT OF MISSOURI INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TN, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY HERE INT EH MID-STATE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE STORMS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WON`T DO US ANY GOOD, SINCE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING MORE
SOUTHWARD THAT EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT BEST CAPE TO BE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT
AND THEN SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN KY AND
NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED RW/TRW
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT, ENHANCED BY A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN OUR NORTHWEST BY 12Z WED.
AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, CAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS). MEANWHILE, EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO FIRE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
SOME OF THOSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR CWA AND MAY NOT PENETRATE OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DYING OUT.
BY THURSDAY, CAPES OVER OUR AREA INCREASE TO 2500+ J/KG, AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD AND KICK OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH OUR HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OUR HIGH TEMPS ON
THU WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVERHEAD. WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS GIVING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPS
FOR THUR, AM HESITANT TO SHAVE TOO MUCH OFF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
THUS, WILL PROBABLY ONLY LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS BY 1 OR 2 DEGS.
MOS POPS AREN`T MUCH HELP WITH THIS TYPE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN, AND TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE RAIN CHANCE. THEREFORE, WILL GO
QUITE A BIT ABOVE MOS POP NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RATHER THAN GO WITH THE 20-30% MOS POPS FOR THU, WILL GO MORE LIKE
30-50%.
LONG TERM...AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BELIEVE GFS IS NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. IT SEEMS TO KEEP MAX TEMPS TOO WARM. ON THE OTHER
HAND, DON`T REALLY BUY THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH A GENERALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR CLIMO NORMS. REGARDING POPS IN THE
EXTENDED, BELIEVE THE MEX NUMBERS MAY BE A BIT HIGH AND WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD CLIMO BY THE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR
KLBX THROUGH 09Z. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND THINK
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE AT KLBX...KIAH AND KCXO. MODELS
HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHT WITH CIGS SO NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT WITH VFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THE LATEST RAP AND 4
KM WRF FOCUS SOME AFTN SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF SE TX. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES
AROUND 21Z SO ADDED VCSH FOR KUTS AND KCXO FOR TUES AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS FINALLY STARTED TO WASH
OUT THIS EVENING. STILL GETTING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DECREASE THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AS 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURE AND POP GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FINALLY GETTING THE SCT PCPN THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THESE LAST
FEW DAYS (VIA THE PESKY LOW THAT MOVED IN FROM THE E YESTERDAY).
PER SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSES THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
TODAY AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT. OVERALL NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE FCST THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE SETTLE IN-
TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
(AS THE TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST). MOST NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE
FCST APPEARS TO BE IN THE EXTENDED WHERE ECMWF HAS A MUCH STRONG-
ER UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE STATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS...WHICH IS NOW GOING WITH THE SHEAR AXIS/WEAK
TROFFING SCENARIO. AS SUCH...WILL BE KEEPING WITH THE GOING FCST
OF MAINLY DAYTIME SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN IN THE MID/EXTENDED PART
OF THE FCST. ALSO NOT REALLY SOLD ON THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTH) SO WILL KEEP THESE NUMBERS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
41
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING LATE WEEK AS
A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 94 75 95 75 / 30 20 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 93 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW THIS EVENING GIVEN LEFTOVER WEAK INSTABILITY PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND STEEP LAPSES ABOVE THE SURFACE OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER CAP ALOFT AND DEEP WEST/NW FLOW HELPING TO KEEP THE LID ON
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION SO STILL EXPECTING MOST SHRA TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR
AND RAP WHICH SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SO
KEEPING POPS SIMILAR OVERNIGHT WITH FEW REMAINING SHRA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. OTRW WEAK FRONT NOW STILL NW OF THE MOUNTAINS TO DRIFT
THROUGH LATE BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SUPPORT THINK MAINLY PC OVERALL. LOW FOG STABILITY VALUES SUPPORT
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG VALLEYS AND WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS HAVE
OCCURRED THIS EVENING SO BEEFING UP COVERAGE IN SPOTS. BUMPED UP
LOWS A BIT GIVEN LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS AND LAGGING COOL
ADVECTION WELL TO THE NW BUT OVERALL MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HRRR AND RNK WRK-
ARW MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING DO A GOOD JOB THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE PLACE STRONG WEIGHT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE. THAT REGION WILL PRIMARILY BE
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG AND ALSO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM
TONIGHT. THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECT TO
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE NIGHT
OF SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOWER...MORE
NUMEROUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE
WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL HELP RE-
ESTABLISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT AND BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OH/PA WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS AXIS NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH IT WILL COME
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. WHILE NOT FORECAST...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT TO WHERE THE
BEST REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD LOOK FAMILIAR TO WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED THE END OF LAST WEEK WITH TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...FAVORING A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES...AND
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
THE ONLY THING THAT HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH TIME. TO START THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A PATTERN THAT GENERALLY
FEATURES COOL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE COOL CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE SHOWERS.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WEDGE OF STABLE AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MTNS WILL PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMINESS HERE...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF I77 WHERE MORE SUN AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING HIGH CHC THREAT FOR PRECIP RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN EASTERLY WIND...
WENT WELL BELOW CLIMO. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY WE WILL BE LUCKY TO TOUCH 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COOL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE SAME NEARLY
STATIONARY...WAVY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING
SW...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH TIME...RESULTING
IN A UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
THUNDER BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK...THE RETURN OF SOME
SUN PROVIDING INSTABILITY TO FEED DEEPER CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK AERA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHEAST VIRGINIA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS
EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
PAST SUNDOWN A FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED A VCSH AT KBLF
AND KDAN EARLY THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL START ENTERING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SAVE MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG. ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LIFTED UPSLOPE IN THE WEST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 12-13Z/8-9AM
THURSDAY.
VFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NORTH AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROAHCING OUR REGION FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...REACHING
THE GULF STATES BY LATE THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HRRR AND RNK WRK-
ARW MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING DO A GOOD JOB THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE PLACE STRONG WEIGHT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE. THAT REGION WILL PRIMARILY BE
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG AND ALSO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM
TONIGHT. THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECT TO
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE NIGHT
OF SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOWER...MORE
NUMEROUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE
WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL HELP RE-
ESTABLISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT AND BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OH/PA WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS AXIS NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH IT WILL COME
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. WHILE NOT FORECAST...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT TO WHERE THE
BEST REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD LOOK FAMILIAR TO WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED THE END OF LAST WEEK WITH TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...FAVORING A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES...AND
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
THE ONLY THING THAT HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH TIME. TO START THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A PATTERN THAT GENERALLY
FEATURES COOL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE COOL CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE SHOWERS.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WEDGE OF STABLE AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MTNS WILL PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMINESS HERE...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF I77 WHERE MORE SUN AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING HIGH CHC THREAT FOR PRECIP RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN EASTERLY WIND...
WENT WELL BELOW CLIMO. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY WE WILL BE LUCKY TO TOUCH 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COOL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE SAME NEARLY
STATIONARY...WAVY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING
SW...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH TIME...RESULTING
IN A UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
THUNDER BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK...THE RETURN OF SOME
SUN PROVIDING INSTABILITY TO FEED DEEPER CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK AERA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHEAST VIRGINIA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS
EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
PAST SUNDOWN A FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED A VCSH AT KBLF
AND KDAN EARLY THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL START ENTERING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SAVE MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG. ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LIFTED UPSLOPE IN THE WEST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 12-13Z/8-9AM
THURSDAY.
VFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NORTH AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
NON-DISCREET FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET WELL INTO THE
LONG TERM SO MAIN FOCUS IS ANY RAIN CHANCES ALONG MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TIERS THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK.
AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW TO
THE EAST...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EMBEDDED IN WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH SLOW EVOLVEMENT
IN ANY PATTERN CHANGES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
FOCUSED...SOUTH OF AREA. DRIER AIR KEEPING RAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF
AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH/EAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN SHORT TERM MODELS BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THINGS MOST
ACTIVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN PERSISTENCE...HAVE LOWERED
OVERALL RAIN THREAT ALONG SOUTHWEST SERVICE AREA BORDER IN ALIGNMENT
WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES AND CONTINUED CUT BACK IN
TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST IN PLACE.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND MOISTURE REBOUND EXPECTED THIS EVENING...COULD
SEE MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BETWEEN THICKER CLOUD COVER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SIMILAR SETUP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RAIN THREAT PRIMARILY
TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF SERVICE AREA. LARGER QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OCCASIONALLY TRYING TO DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED
UPPER LOW AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF WESTERN STATES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE STEADY MODEL KEEPING A BROAD RIDGE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCKED OVER GREAT LAKES UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY WHEN
WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA TRY TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT IN. EVEN AS THAT
HAPPENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW ACTIVE FRONT
WILL BE WITH SUCH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN
THREATS REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND MANY AREAS COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THAT POINT.
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH WITH ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD
TO WARM AIR/MOISTURE RETURN AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A FOG THREAT...SPECIFICALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...WITH A GREATER IMPACT AT KLSE AS A RESULT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND MO LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING SOME HIGH CIRRUS THIS WAY. IT APPEARS TO BE THIN
IN NATURE THOUGH...AND ITS IMPACT ON DIURNAL COOLING COULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.
SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO CALM...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO THIS LIGHT WIND LAYER EXTENDING UPWARDS OF 4K FT.
PREVIOUS RAP AND NAM INCREASE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BEFORE
12Z...AND THIS SUGGESTION IS STILL THERE IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT
MORESO TOWARD 12Z RATHER THAN EARLIER. WITH AN INVERSION ALREADY IN
PLACE...THIS LATE INCREASE IN WIND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE
SFC.
KLSE T/TD SPREAD WAS 7 DEGREES AT 03Z...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WHAT
LOCAL STUDIES FAVOR FOR 1/4SM FORMATION. HOWEVER...COUPLE THIS WITH
THE LIGHT WIND PROFILE AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND AT LEAST SUB 1SM AT KLSE. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z.
FOR KRST...SIMILAR T/TD SPREAD AND LIGHT WIND FIELD. EXPECT SOME
MVFR VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES SHOULD THEN BE VFR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
956 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
NEARLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING TO FORECAST HIGHS.
A COUPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
SEEING MUCH A TRIGGER...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THIS CLOUD DECK ERODES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS
SOME AND RAISE THE CLOUD BASES.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE 250 MB JET MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH
INCREASES TO 100 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WISCONSIN BEFORE MOVING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PUTS SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS A RESULT UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MOST MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM DOES BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
REACHES 1000 JOULES/KG ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER WITH LESS
THAN 200 JOULES/KG NEAR SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS DRY THROUGH 19Z WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. THE 00Z
HIGH RES WRF/ARW DOES BRING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG...WITH A FEW AREAS DENSE...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TODAY.
THE FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH
DAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...AROUND 100 TO 300
J/KG... ON WEDNESDAY...THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGHER VALUES
OF 700-900 J/KG CAPE ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE
MORE DISTINCT AND AGREED UPON BETWEEN MODELS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS THE BEST
DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10C TO 12C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 19C
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO 14C
AND 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 22C BY MONDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS. A FEW
SPOTS WILL BE AROUND 1/4 MILE. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. THEN MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MAINLY VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS [POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET MAX.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE 250 MB JET MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH
INCREASES TO 100 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WISCONSIN BEFORE MOVING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PUTS SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS A RESULT UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MOST MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM DOES BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
REACHES 1000 JOULES/KG ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER WITH LESS
THAN 200 JOULES/KG NEAR SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS DRY THROUGH 19Z WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. THE 00Z
HIGH RES WRF/ARW DOES BRING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG...WITH A FEW AREAS DENSE...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TODAY.
THE FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH
DAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...AROUND 100 TO 300
J/KG... ON WEDNESDAY...THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGHER VALUES
OF 700-900 J/KG CAPE ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE
MORE DISTINCT AND AGREED UPON BETWEEN MODELS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS THE BEST
DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10C TO 12C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 19C
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO 14C
AND 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 22C BY MONDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS. A FEW
SPOTS WILL BE AROUND 1/4 MILE. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. THEN MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MAINLY VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS [POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET MAX.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
117 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE OF WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LARGE DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO EDGE NORTHEAST FROM UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PLUME OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS NOW OFF TO OUR EAST IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IS LAYING UP AGAINST THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION CONCENTRATED EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SO FAR TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
MINOR WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING AND THEN EAST IN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AID IN INCREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1200-1400 J/KG AROUND ALLIANCE AND CHADRON. THEY
ARE STILL CAPPED PRETTY GOOD THOUGH SO FAR. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THIS CAP BREAKING AROUND 21Z OR SO AND HRRR SHOWING A PRETTY
STRONG CELL DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MONTROSE IN SIOUX COUNTY OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE LIFTED NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ECMWF AND NAM/WRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEST AREA FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE PANHANDLE
BY MID AFTERNOON PERSISTING INTO MID EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LATE DAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS FROM SIDNEY TO
CHADRON WHERE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
FRIDAY...INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WELL
PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL AID IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.
SATURDAY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY...WE EXPECT
A CORRESPONDING DECREASE INT THE AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
SUNDAY/TUESDAY...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EAST
WINDS.
MONDAY...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
USED LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO DETERMINE PRECIP LOCATION AND
TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND TIMING. IFR STRATUS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
AREA CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE. EXPECT FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES EAST. DECREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY ON FOR THE MOST PART AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL...KEEPING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN CHECK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1054 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
WITH DENSE CLOUD CANOPY AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM LATE THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES 3-4 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF CHEYENNE DOES NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
ENHANCING TSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO. EXPANSIVE PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE WAS ADVECTED NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN MT
TO ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN KS. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER OVER EAST CENTRAL WY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. WINDS WERE VARIABLE 5-10 MPH.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER OR JUST EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS CO AND WY THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME INTERACTING WITH THE
WAVE AND INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSTORMS. SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM CO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO ALLIANCE
LINE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS WY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE. CONVECTION ENDS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...SOME MORNING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO
SIDNEY LINE AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES SOUTHEAST ON LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. A RESURGENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
ANOTHER PASSING WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S/70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH A MUDDLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. GENERALLY THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BROAD/FLAT RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GOVERNED
BY INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ECMWF WITH A SHORTWAVE MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
AND LONGER DURATION EVENT. 700-300 MILLIBAR RH PROGS FROM BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW POCKETS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED POPS
EVEN AT NIGHT AS ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD EXIST WITH MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVES AND OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH GOOD DYNAMIC
FORCING OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING
HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT POPS IN MOST CASES GIVEN THE VAST MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...SEASONAL.
WARMING AND DRYING TREND MON AND TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
USED LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO DETERMINE PRECIP LOCATION AND
TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND TIMING. IFR STRATUS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DISTRICTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE WILL ENHANCE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WETTING RAINFALL AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
10 MPH...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1127 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MOVES INTO CENTRAL UTAH. 12Z
PWATS ON THE GJT SOUNDING OVER 1.2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE IS HEADED
OUR WAY. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER
CARBON COUNTY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR ARLINGTON AND
CENTENNIAL WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE RADAR UP BY VEDAUWOO...SO SHOWERS
HERE AT CHEYENNE ARE NOT THAT FAR OFF.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST. ITS SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 23Z TIME FRAME. STORMS ARE GOING TO
BE VERY SLOW MOVING...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UNDER 5KTS. THOSE
AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES BEST LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING...SO WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER 03Z OR SO UNTIL TUESDAY. DRIED OUT
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM LARAMIE TO
WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON THIS EVENING.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. NAM AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LARAMIE
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE STEERING FLOW...SO
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES...WITH
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INDICATED FROM DOUGLAS TO
CHEYENNE...ALONG WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE...HAVE BOOSTED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS INTO THE 45 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE...WITH
LESSER POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
AND UTAH...WHILE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SETS UP FROM NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO NEAR TORRINGTON TO NEAR CHADRON.
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...WELL PRONOUNCED...WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND WITH PROGGED INSTABILITIES...CAPE AND DECENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LUSK TO CHEYENNE LINE...AND HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS EAST OF THIS
LINE TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE WITH ALL CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER.
FRIDAY...LESS LATE DAY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH DECREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH WILL
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE MECHANICAL LIFT.
SATURDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER OUR COUNTIES...THUS EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE PINE RIDGE FROM NEAR LUSK TO NEAR CHADRON.
MONDAY...EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT...AND WITH THE BULK OF
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER COLORADO...WILL ONLY FORECAST
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY...SIERRA
MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES...THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE GREATER INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z TUE...MAINLY FOR KAIA AND
KCDR. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ACROSS THOSE AREAS ON TUE
WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 17-18Z AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
GIVING MOST AREAS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
DAILY BASIS. WINDS TO REMAIN WEAK AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FAIRLY
HIGH...MITIGATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MIN HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...04Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING CLOUD
TOPS OVER EXTREME SERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE WE SAW SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE SHWR ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS EVE...A RESULT OF CONVECTION
WHICH SPILLED NORTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW VERY WEAK
ECHOES REMAINED IN EXTREME SRN COCHISE CNTY WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SERN AZ...SKIES WERE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW LINGERING MAINLY CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDS. AREA SFC TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOW 90S TO THE UPPER 70S WITH
THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS...NOT SURPRISINGLY...ACROSS COCHISE CNTY.
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS INDICATING AT THIS TIME THAT ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
IS STILL OCCURRING OVER CNTRL SONORA WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND
APPROACHING 50 KFT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTFLOW
FROM THIS COMPLEX PUSHING NORTH INTO SANTA CRUZ AND/OR COCHISE
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 06Z AND THEN SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...SO NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE DETAIL...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/23Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS NE OF KDUG THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFT 07/21Z. CLOUDS THRU 07/06Z AND AFT 07/19Z...
SKC-FEW CLOUDS AT 10-13K FT AGL WEST OF KTUS...WITH KTUS VICINITY
EWD FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL...AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL MAINLY SE OF KTUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 07/06Z AND 07/19Z. SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXPECT FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWWD THRU BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH THE GREAT BASIN TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. FOR
A SHORT TIME...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS. LATE IN THE WKEND ANOTHER TROF WILL DROP SWD ALONG THE PAC
COASTLINE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SE AZ. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN EACH OF THE MODELS ON THE DAY
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
WITHOUT GOING INTO ALL THAT DETAIL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW
A GRADUAL DAILY INCREASE IN SHWRS/TSTMS FRI-SUN. THUS...SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
SAT...THOUGH ALMOST CERTAINLY BY SUN. DEEPER SELY FLOW WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO YIELD THE DAILY CYCLE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS.
A VERY GRADUAL AND WEAK DAILY COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THUR-SAT
FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SUN-WED.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES A WEAK ROUGE CELL NEAR MONUMENT HILL
TRACKING EAST...AND MAY CLIP THE COUNTY BOUNDARY THROUGH 11 PM.
MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CURRENTLY...
WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS INITIATING SOME CONVECTION OVER KIOWA COUNTY AT 2 PM.
GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50 WINDS WERE FROM A WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT
WHILE WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTH OF 50.
OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR MTNS...IT HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A
BIT WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DRIER ALOFT AS CLOUDS ARE NOTICEABLY MUCH LESS
ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF US-50.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WALDO BURN
SCAR. HRRR SHOWING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
C MTNS...GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND KIOWA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS THIS AREA IN EARLIER UPDATES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING
NOT LIKELY OVER BURN SCARS...ONE HEAVY SHOWER IN THE WRONG PLACE CAN
EASILY CAUSE PROBLEMS.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AS 60 DWPTS CURRENTLY IN
SW NEB ARE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THE GREATER KIOWA COUNTY REGION. NAM GUIDANCE HAS SOME PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT THIS REGION BUT IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE.
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE MTNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD AND HIGH
VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND HAVE POPS DRAWN UP
EVERYWHERE OVER THE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND AREA WILL LIKELY BE FEELING THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OVER E UTAH. CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIATE AROUND ITS NORMAL TIME OVER THE MTNS (NOONISH) AND THEN
INCREASE AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
OVER C MTNS...PIKES PEAK AREA AND FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FLOODING THREAT ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY. STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED TOMORROW DUE TO A BIT
BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES. AN ISOLD SVR STORM CANT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF THE MCS WHICH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OUTFLOW. OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO MOST MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MOVES TO THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA...BUT THERE IS THREAT FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THURSDAY EVENING. POPS GRIDS KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THESE
REGIONS FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. CANNOT
GET VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
OUTFLOW FROM MCS...BUT HUNCH IS OUTFLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN MOST
MODELS SUGGEST. IF THIS IS THE CASE...LOW LEVELS COULD BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW LEVELS
ARE TOO CLOUDY OR COOL...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE STABLE ON THE PLAINS.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCATTERED POPS MAINLY ALONG PALMER DIVIDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. NAM12 HAS A POTENT AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY...AND CAPES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ARE OVER 2000 J/KG. THINK
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...MONSOON PLUME IS MOSTLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST
WITH THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER COLORADO. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START BRINGING MORE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. POPS INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD CONTINUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF A
PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING
AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. MORE SUBTLE
FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE A DECREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MID WEEK FOR A DECREASED
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE. LIKELY STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...BUT
PATTERN CHANGES SUGGESTS LOWER COVERAGE WITH LESS INTENSITY.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS TOWARDS 12Z...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF KLHX AND WILL BE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN +TSRA...AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL. TAFS CARRY ONLY VCTS FOR NOW AS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KCOS AND KPUB DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF THEY DO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS RADAR RETURNS DETECTING
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOUDS
ARE ALSO INCREASING QUICKLY...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HRRR INDICATING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IMPACTING THE
SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
COOLED QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL START TO LEVEL OFF
DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD POOL WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WAS THE CASE LAST
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...SOME RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING
FEATURE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL. SHOULD TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
70S...AND DEWPOINTS REACH OR EXCEED THE MID 50S...THEN CAN NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL/WIND. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY...AND
FORCING WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND E OF ALBANY...ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN
VT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AT THIS
TIME...BUT FUTURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY OCCURS...AND RESULTS IN STRONGER TSTMS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
THU NT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/NW MA AND THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
THEN...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 45-50
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VT. ELSEWHERE...OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI NT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE INTO MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST WILL BUILD A TROF BACK ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S RANGE. AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TUESDAY/S HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS...
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER STILL FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER
80S...NORMAL LOWS...AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALREADY HAVE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT KGFL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THIN OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP
AT KGFL...KPSF AND KPOU. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT KALB AS A LIGHT
WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION AS THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -17 TO -19 DEGREES CELSIUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WEST WINDS AT KALB...OTHERWISE CALM WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AT KALB AND KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT..WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100
PERCENT FOR THU NT/FRI AM WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH
FOR THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND MUCH
STRONGER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DIMINISH...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS RADAR RETURNS DETECTING
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOUDS
ARE ALSO INCREASING QUICKLY...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HRRR INDICATING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IMPACTING THE
SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
COOLED QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL START TO LEVEL OFF
DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD POOL WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WAS THE CASE LAST
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...SOME RATHER
HEALTHY INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING
FEATURE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL. SHOULD TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
70S...AND DEWPOINTS REACH OR EXCEED THE MID 50S...THEN CAN NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL/WIND. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY...AND
FORCING WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND E OF ALBANY...ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN
VT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AT THIS
TIME...BUT FUTURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY OCCURS...AND RESULTS IN STRONGER TSTMS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
THU NT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/NW MA AND THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
THEN...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 45-50
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VT. ELSEWHERE...OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI NT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE INTO MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST WILL BUILD A TROF BACK ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S RANGE. AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TUESDAY/S HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS...
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER STILL FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER
80S...NORMAL LOWS...AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z
FRIDAY AT THE KGFL/KLB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION AT
KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. THE FOG FORMATION IS STILL NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...AND SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL
MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG
BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z.
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY ON
THURSDAY AT 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT..WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100
PERCENT FOR THU NT/FRI AM WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH
FOR THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND MUCH
STRONGER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DIMINISH...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF MAINE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT THE FLOW ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH IN
QUICKLY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALLOWING STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IN THE INTERIOR...AND THEN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVERALL IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IN PART RELATED TO A SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FROM THE SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THIS MAY LEAD
TO EARLIER AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS THAN YESTERDAY NEAR KAPF. SO
VCTS GROUP WAS MOVED UP A FEW HOURS THERE. ALSO...A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW TO W WIND AND MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
MAY PRODUCE QUICKER OR MORE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN
CONCLUSION...VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES...AND THE FEELING
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ATLANTIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND REGIONAL SEAS LESS THAN TWO FEET THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
MIAMI 91 78 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 91 77 90 76 / 40 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
603 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND STALL. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL STALL TONIGHT. DESPITE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE
NEARING THE CSRA TOWARD 600 PM. THE 00Z SPC WRF SHOWS JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL GET OFF TO A
WARM START AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LITTLE CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM. IT SHOULD BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JUST A FEW HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY MENTION
MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT AGS. A FEW MORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z...THEN
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 6-8 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS AREA INTERSECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING IOWA AS IT IS FEEDING THE STORMS IN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL IT
GET. LATEST PROGS BARELY LIFT IT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THUS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SOME WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING OVER IOWA TODAY THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST.
AS FOR QPF...THE 06Z NAM WAS BETTER AT WITH ITS QPF FORECAST THAN
THE 00Z RUN BUT IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TOO MUCH TO THE FORCING AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE HEAVIER PRECIP WAS TIED MORE THE TO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE HOPWRF ALSO WAS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH ON PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR...WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIP...SHOWED THE PRECIP TIED TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY IN MO WITH SCT PRECIP MORE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. I LIKED THE HRRR THE BEST AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BUT DID BLEND POPS WITH THE HOPWRF AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERN
IOWA WAS SPARED FROM PRECIP YESTERDAY IN LARGE PART FROM THE HIGH
PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID PUT A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWEST IN THIS AREA.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH A FAIR PART OF THE MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
GENERALLY DROPPED HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND KEPT THE
NORTHEAST WARMER PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS...LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
FORCING WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING
WHERE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. HOWEVER...THE FORCING
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF IOWA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDING TO THE NORTH. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RELATIVELY LOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DESPITE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME...FORCING WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE
BULK OF FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY AFTER MONDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. IOWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL FORECAST GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS...BUT KEPT THEM
VICINITY AS OPPOSED TO PUTTING THEM DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. TWO SHORTWAVES...PRESENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL KS...WILL HELP
PROVIDE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN. LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND POINT INTO IA...PROVIDING AMPLE
MOISTURE. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE 2.0 IN RANGE...WHICH
AGAIN WILL BE AROUND +2 SD VS CLIMO. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL APPROACH
THE 12 KFT RANGE. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS DO TEND TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...MORE SO THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND RESULTING
RAINFALL. THE NAM IS THE WETTEST AND BRINGS A RIBBON OF FORCING
ALONG WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT AS INTENSE THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE
TENDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TONIGHT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF IA HWY 92.
WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IA COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF 92...GIVEN LAST NIGHT/S
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
THERE...CONFIDENCE IS AROUND THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD WHICH
WOULD BE THE LOW-END FLASH FLOOD WATCH CRITERIA.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL BUT
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
THIS AFTN IN SW IA...WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MINIMAL HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SHORTER TERM WITH
EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY SFC SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MO AND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THETAE AXIS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO
FEED THIS AREA WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING. MODELS HAVENT
QUITE REACHED A CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHEAST US.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH THE H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE EURO/GFS/NAM HIT THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FOCUSED BETWEEN 12-18Z USING A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH TRACK OF THE H850 LOW. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH MESO HRRR AND NMM MODELS. CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING FAIRLY WELL WITH ALL MODELS BUT WITH EXPECTED
MESO CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MO THIS EVENING...TRACK
EXPECTED TO END UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
AND CLOSER TO THE HRRR/NMM. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THAT SOLUTION
...IN LINE WITH WPC AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH DURING THE
EVENING SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS FARTHER NORTH. ANY
DEVIATION NORTH WOULD RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BEING HIGHER IN THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHEARED OUT
AND WEAKENS...AND HANGS ON INTO FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTH. ALREADY INTO THE WEEKEND NOW SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GREAT LAKES HIGH NOW BEING MODELED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND IS NOW TRENDING TO KEEP AREA DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE REDUCED POP CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS...
BUT HAVE NOT CUT OUT YET DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND CONSENSUS
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT THIS POINT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH
TONIGHTS MODEL PACKAGES...THEN FURTHER REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY SOME MODERATION IS
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
RISK FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK....LESSENING CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. SOME HINT AT RETURN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. IOWA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL FORECAST GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS...BUT KEPT THEM
VICINITY AS OPPOSED TO PUTTING THEM DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THURSDAY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE STATE.
URBAN AREAS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING
ISSUES AS MOST RURAL LOCATIONS HAVE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
MINIMAL RISES ARE ANTICIPATED ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-CLARKE-
DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-RINGGOLD-UNION-WAYNE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
218 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ACTING ON AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
HAS ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND USED IT AS
A BASIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT THIS COMPLEX WILL
DO TO ONSET OF STRATUS AND FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TODAY...BUT OVERALL RISING
HEIGHTS AND DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST AND
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS MAXIMIZED EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP LATE...LINGERING INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BEST
IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
BROAD H5/H7 UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN FLATTENING TO MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS DO SUPPORT A FEW SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE H7
RIDGE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY LEE-SIDE TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. BASED ON MODEL MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH...PLACEMENT OF THE
700 MB SHORTWAVES WILL FOCUS MORE AREAL COVERAGE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...TAPERING DOWN AS WEEK PROGRESSES DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO WORK EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THE
TROUGH WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE TO 60-65 DEWPOINTS TO OUR EAST AND
45-55 DEWPOINTS WEST. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS IN LATEST GFS VERSUS
ECMWF SO WILL TAKE BLEND. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TAP FOR THE AREA
AS A RESULT OF HIGH DEWPOINTS IN AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER WESTERN ZONES...AND 65-70F FOR
EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS
AND FOG BUT DISAGREE. THIS IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY AN INTENSE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SOON AFFECT THE KMCK TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AT KMCK BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KMCK UNTIL MID MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD UNTIL MID MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. SO FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST DURING THAT
TIME. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1203 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ACTING ON AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
HAS ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HRRR HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND USED IT AS
A BASIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT THIS COMPLEX WILL
DO TO ONSET OF STRATUS AND FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TODAY...BUT OVERALL RISING
HEIGHTS AND DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST AND
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS MAXIMIZED EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP LATE...LINGERING INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BEST
IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(POSSIBLY AS AN MCS) WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE
STRONGEST. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE REACHES FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND PERHAPS ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN KANSAS BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE
AREA AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL PREFERENCE. FOR NOW HAVE IT
DRY FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEVADA/UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW OR ITS REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST PUSHING
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY
EVERY DAY. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AROUND 90 TUESDAY THEN MID/UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH AROUND 90/LOW 90S EAST OF THE STATE LINE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS
AND FOG BUT DISAGREE. THIS IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY AN INTENSE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SOON AFFECT THE KMCK TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AT KMCK BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KMCK UNTIL MID MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD UNTIL MID MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. SO FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST DURING THAT
TIME. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PUSHING IN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNDER THE
RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW DEEP LAYER
1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS HAS ALLOWED BOTH SOIL AND VEGETATION TO
BECOME DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HAVE KEPT LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR 13C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 14C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 850 THETA E
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER
MI AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER
FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV ALONG WITH
1000-500MB RH. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY ABUNDANT THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE POPS
RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING MOISTURE
NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT IWD AND SAW. WITH MAINLY GROUND FOG
EXPECTED THAT MAY BE VARIABLE...CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VSBY REMAINS
MODERATE TO LOW...SO WILL KEEP 3-5MI PREDOMINANT VIS AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SWRN NEB EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ITS A LIKELY POP SITUATION AS THE H500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN WY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEB
TONIGHT. THE FCST DELAYS POPS BY 3 HOURS GIVEN THE BIAS IN MODEL
TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE QPF FORECAST.
HPC CARRIES THE BEST QPF MORE SOUTH THRU SWRN NEB THEN WRN KANSAS
BUT THE RAP AND NAM CORFIDI VECTORS FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SHOW EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE BLENDED QPF FORECAST WE
HAVE PREPARED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AND A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STALL THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAL WITH
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS MONTANA BY TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. TIMING OF THE WAVES VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE
IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
A WASH OF A WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH
ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED LATE DAY ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAKENING CAP DUE TO
PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE. THE RICH BL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING PATCHY FOG. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL /LOWER TO MID 80S/ DURING THE DAY
AND MILD OVERNIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK...FLOW BECOMES M0RE NORTHWESTERLY.
MODELS CONTINUE A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES AROUND THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THEY BECOME SPACED OUT MORE. STILL GOING TO SEE OCCASIONAL POPS
WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A
LITTLE. GUIDANCE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL AFFECT THE
IML AREA UNTIL ABOUT 07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL 21Z WHEN THEY DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR
OGA AND IML).
LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN THE NORTH...OUR
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET AGL
WITH PATCHY BR/FG RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 3SM. THAT
WOULD INCLUDE VTN...ANW...ONL AND BBW. FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...THAT IS...MHN... TIF...LBF AND OGA...THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CEILING BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT PATCHY BR/FG WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW THIS EVENING GIVEN LEFTOVER WEAK INSTABILITY PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS AND STEEP LAPSES ABOVE THE SURFACE OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER CAP ALOFT AND DEEP WEST/NW FLOW HELPING TO KEEP THE LID ON
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION SO STILL EXPECTING MOST SHRA TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR
AND RAP WHICH SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SO
KEEPING POPS SIMILAR OVERNIGHT WITH FEW REMAINING SHRA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. OTRW WEAK FRONT NOW STILL NW OF THE MOUNTAINS TO DRIFT
THROUGH LATE BEFORE DIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SUPPORT THINK MAINLY PC OVERALL. LOW FOG STABILITY VALUES SUPPORT
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG VALLEYS AND WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS HAVE
OCCURRED THIS EVENING SO BEEFING UP COVERAGE IN SPOTS. BUMPED UP
LOWS A BIT GIVEN LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS AND LAGGING COOL
ADVECTION WELL TO THE NW BUT OVERALL MOSTLY 60S FOR LOWS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HRRR AND RNK WRK-
ARW MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING DO A GOOD JOB THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE PLACE STRONG WEIGHT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE. THAT REGION WILL PRIMARILY BE
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG AND ALSO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM
TONIGHT. THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECT TO
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE NIGHT
OF SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOWER...MORE
NUMEROUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR A BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WV LINE
WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL HELP RE-
ESTABLISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT AND BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OH/PA WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS AXIS NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH IT WILL COME
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. WHILE NOT FORECAST...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT TO WHERE THE
BEST REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD LOOK FAMILIAR TO WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED THE END OF LAST WEEK WITH TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...FAVORING A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES...AND
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
THE ONLY THING THAT HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH TIME. TO START THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A PATTERN THAT GENERALLY
FEATURES COOL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE COOL CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE SHOWERS.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WEDGE OF STABLE AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MTNS WILL PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMINESS HERE...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF I77 WHERE MORE SUN AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RIDE THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN SPREADS EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING HIGH CHC THREAT FOR PRECIP RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN EASTERLY WIND...
WENT WELL BELOW CLIMO. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY WE WILL BE LUCKY TO TOUCH 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COOL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE SAME NEARLY
STATIONARY...WAVY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDGING
SW...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH TIME...RESULTING
IN A UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
THUNDER BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK...THE RETURN OF SOME
SUN PROVIDING INSTABILITY TO FEED DEEPER CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECT PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG WILL BE
SINCE HIGH CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA AD SINCE DEW POINTS
WILL BE DROPPING LATE TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT KLWB AND KLYH.
THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
13Z/9AM. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING
DURING THE DAY TO LOWER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NORTH AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUATION OF SUB-VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
256 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN IA/EASTERN KS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF ON THE NORTH END
AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND WAS NOW CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-80 IN
IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND MN. BESIDE A
BAND OF CIRRUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WI...DRY AIR OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG WERE NOTED
ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND THE WI RIVER VALLEY. ARX WEBCAM SHOWING SOME
STRATUS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND THINKING THIS WILL GET A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. WILL
BE WATCHING THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN IA TRACK EAST...WHICH
MAY SPREAD ISOLATED SHOWERS/OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH THIS WAVE AND GIVEN DRIER EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW...KEPT RAIN CHANCE VERY LOW...MAXED OUT IN THE 20-25
PERCENT RANGE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94
WITH MORE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST
MN/SOUTHWEST WI. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
EAST INTO IL. WAS THINKING SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH A BIT
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...THINKING WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS CLEAN. THEY MAY BE SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE WISCONSIN/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS
POINT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. PLAN ON HIGHS SAT AND
SUN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80...COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AT THIS POINT
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING FARTHER NORTH IN CANADA. AS
SUCH...KEEPING POPS FAIRLY LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD TOP OFF AROUND
80 ON MONDAY AND THEN COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY.
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A FOG THREAT...SPECIFICALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...WITH A GREATER IMPACT AT KLSE AS A RESULT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND MO LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING SOME HIGH CIRRUS THIS WAY. IT APPEARS TO BE THIN
IN NATURE THOUGH...AND ITS IMPACT ON DIURNAL COOLING COULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.
SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO CALM...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO THIS LIGHT WIND LAYER EXTENDING UPWARDS OF 4K FT.
PREVIOUS RAP AND NAM INCREASE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BEFORE
12Z...AND THIS SUGGESTION IS STILL THERE IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT
MORESO TOWARD 12Z RATHER THAN EARLIER. WITH AN INVERSION ALREADY IN
PLACE...THIS LATE INCREASE IN WIND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE
SFC.
KLSE T/TD SPREAD WAS 7 DEGREES AT 03Z...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WHAT
LOCAL STUDIES FAVOR FOR 1/4SM FORMATION. HOWEVER...COUPLE THIS WITH
THE LIGHT WIND PROFILE AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND AT LEAST SUB 1SM AT KLSE. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z.
FOR KRST...SIMILAR T/TD SPREAD AND LIGHT WIND FIELD. EXPECT SOME
MVFR VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES SHOULD THEN BE VFR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1042 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CONVECTION WAS EARLY TO START TODAY WITH INITIATION OCCURRING AS A
RESULT OF TWO SEPARATE CATALYSTS. THE FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES
WHERE LFQ OF A 75 KNOT H3 JET STREAK APPROACHES. THE OTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION FIRED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NE WY INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SFC...60F ISODROSOTHERM EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY WITH A WEAK NW/SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND AS
THE H3 JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY. SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ABOUT 1500
J/KG OF AVAILABLE SBCAPES EXTENDING FROM ERN WYOMING INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AS THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING.
RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WRN WYOMING. OTHERWISE...SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. PWAT VALUES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
TODAY WITH THE ONE INCH LINE HOVERING VERY CLOSE TO THE WY/NE
STATELINE. LIKEWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE WK QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE ERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
SIMILAR TIMING AS TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER A BETTER AIR MASS. SBCAPES ARE
AGAIN PROGD TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG. SO ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD TO ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW MAY BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MEANDERS TOWARDS THE
CWFA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE. HOWEVER...IN ALL CASE EXPECT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S/LOW 80S
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
AREA REMAINS IN A RATHER MOIST MONSOONAL PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH DIURNAL CHANCES OF STORMS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SAT THROUGH MON WHICH
KEEPS MIDLEVEL FLOW SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
IN FROM ARIZONA/UTAH. THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS
TO BE ON SUN AS SFC WINDS TURN EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A SFC HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STEERING FLOW IS ALSO SOUTHERLY ON SUN
AFTN SO MAY TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE FOOTHILLS. LI VALUES ARE -4C TO -6C ON SUN AND MON
AFTNS...HOWEVER WITH BULK SHEAR AT 25 KTS...THE SVR POTENTIAL
LOOKS LIMITED (WHICH IS NORMAL FOR MID AUG). TEMPS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE CWA ON TUES NIGHT WITH DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CONVECTION HAS NEARLY COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. REMNANT CELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE
WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS PAST EVENING AND WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING. HRRR SHOWS THIS REALLY WELL AND FOLLOWED
ITS GUIDANCE. KCDR AND KAIA SHOULD FALL TO IFR/VLIFR AFTER 09Z OR
SHORTLY THERE AFTER. CONVECTION RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY AT
LEAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...SPARKING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO EXPECT
TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
917 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CAME IN WITH
PWAT JUST ABOVE TWO INCHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM YESTERDAY AND IS
NOW 6.5 C/KM WITH A 500 MB TEMPERATURE OF -7C WHICH IS 1 DEGREE
COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALSO VERY WEAK SO
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN 5 MPH. GIVEN ALL OF THIS,
LARGE OUTBREAK OF CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT SET
UP SEEM NEARLY CERTAIN WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR BUT THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING MOST ACTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INLAND. SO MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST HIGHER POPS FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT WITH SUCH SLOW FORECAST
MOTION, WILL WAIT UNTIL DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO OCCUR AND MAKE AN
ASSESSMENT AT THAT TIME.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. AROUND THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO FORM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO START AROUND 16Z-18Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME RANGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE
WITH ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF MAINE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT THE FLOW ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH IN
QUICKLY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALLOWING STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IN THE INTERIOR...AND THEN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVERALL IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IN PART RELATED TO A SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FROM THE SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THIS MAY LEAD
TO EARLIER AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS THAN YESTERDAY NEAR KAPF. SO
VCTS GROUP WAS MOVED UP A FEW HOURS THERE. ALSO...A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW TO W WIND AND MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
MAY PRODUCE QUICKER OR MORE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN
CONCLUSION...VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES...AND THE FEELING
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
MARINE...
ATLANTIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND REGIONAL SEAS LESS THAN TWO FEET THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
MIAMI 91 78 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 91 77 90 76 / 40 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
804 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. AROUND THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO FORM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO START AROUND 16Z-18Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME RANGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE
WITH ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
NORTH OF MAINE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT THE FLOW ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH IN
QUICKLY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALLOWING STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG IN THE INTERIOR...AND THEN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVERALL IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IN PART RELATED TO A SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FROM THE SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THIS MAY LEAD
TO EARLIER AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS THAN YESTERDAY NEAR KAPF. SO
VCTS GROUP WAS MOVED UP A FEW HOURS THERE. ALSO...A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW TO W WIND AND MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST
MAY PRODUCE QUICKER OR MORE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN
CONCLUSION...VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES...AND THE FEELING
IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
MARINE...
ATLANTIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND REGIONAL SEAS LESS THAN TWO FEET THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 77 91 / 20 50 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 91 / 20 50 20 50
MIAMI 78 90 77 92 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
742 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND STALL. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL STALL TONIGHT. DESPITE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE
NEARING THE CSRA TOWARD 600 PM. THE 00Z SPC WRF SHOWS JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL GET OFF TO A
WARM START AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LITTLE CLOUDINESS IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM. IT SHOULD BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT
FALLING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A STALLED FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKE MOS POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JUST A FEW HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL MENTION
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT AGS/OGB/CUB FOR AN HOUR. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 6-8 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN GO BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST H3R AND RAP SHOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF 100 DEG
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE READY
TO GO THAT HIGH RIGHT NOW...BUT DID NUDGE HIGHS UP A DEGREE IN A
FEW SELECT LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
AN ILL-DEFINED LEE SIDE TROUGH WL MEANDER INTO THE AREA TDA AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE SLGTLY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. MODEST W/NW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE PSNG ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 590 DM
ANTICYCLONE CNTRD OVR THE FL STRAIGHTS WL PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO
THE BEACHES AGAIN THIS AFTN. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO
+18-20C WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2C WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. XPCT A SLGTLY
WARMER DAY AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES. SOME OF THE 07/00Z COOP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A FEW SPOTS REACHING 100 DEGS WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
UNREASONABLE WITH SOME PRE-FNTL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LIKELY TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APRCHG BACKDOOR CDFNT. DEWPTS ARE FCST TO MIX
OUT ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING TO KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES 100-105
DEGS THIS AFTN...WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE LTE SUMMER HEAT ADV
CRITERIA OF 110 DEGS.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WL FIRE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP. A DRY W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DVLPG OVER OR
MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA WITHOUT SOME SORT OF STRONG IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS OR SC UPSTATE DURING PEAK
HEATING. WITH LTL TO NO LOW-LEVEL CONVG NOTED ALONG THE PINNED SEA
BREEZE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE/DNVA NOTED OVER THE AREA...SUSPECT ONLY
VERY ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO PSBLY FIRE ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST.
GRIDDED POPS WL BE CAPPED AT 5-10 PCNT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WITH
POPS 0-5 PCNT ELSEWHERE. LATER SHIFTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO ADD A
MENTIONABLE POP BACK INTO THE FCST ONCE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE SCALE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT LTR TDA...BUT THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES
THIS EVNG...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL EMPIRE OF SE GA OVRNGT.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FNT AND DPVA ASSOC WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
SUPPORT ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS ROUGHLY IN THE 9PM-3AM TIME FRAME. THE
SYNOPTIC MID- LVL FLOW WL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE WITH W/NW TRAJS...BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 700 HPA THETA-E...ROUGHLY 330-332K...
POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
COUNTERACT THIS. WL FCST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS CAPPED AT 15-20 PCNT. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE NGT FOR
LTE SUMMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR-MID 70S INLAND...MID-
UPR 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPR 70S-LWR 80S AT THE BEACHES AND DWTN
CHARLESTON.
FRIDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...FORCING WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA...AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEPENDENT MAINLY ON SFC HEATING.
AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT A RAIN-FREE FORECAST DURING MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE MAINTAINING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS H5
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST AND SPAWNS A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG
OR NEAR THE WEAKENED FRONT TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE MID LVL LOW POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH...CAUSING THE SFC LOW TO SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SUPPORT SOLID
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AREAS OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. PWATS AT OR
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES SUPPORT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ONCE IT STALLS AND BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE INTO LATE WEEK. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT WITH SLIGHT
VARIATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT. CHANCES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE GREATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NO CONCERNS. W/SW WNDS WL BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN AS A
WEAK SEA BREEZE DVLPS RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. WINDS WL GENERALLY
BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...THE WND FIELD WL BECOME RATHER LGT AND CHAOTIC OVRNGT AS
A BACKDOOR CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE WTRS. SEAS WL REMAIN 1-3 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH
OF THE WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT OR BELOW
10 KTS INITIALLY NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OFFSHORE JUST TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 15
KTS...HIGHEST NEAR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WILL BE PEAKING THIS WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED. WIND FIELDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON THE TIDES.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEPARTURE IS NEEDED ABOVE THE PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES VALUES TO RESULT IN MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SC COAST. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7 AUGUST:
KCHS 99/2008...
KCXM 97/1899...
KSAV 100/2008...
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC RADAR /KCLX/ REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL FAILURE. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE HAS THE RADAR
RETURNING TO SERVICE BETWEEN AUGUST 16TH AND 21ST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO A MATURE MCS OVER MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE
REGION OF WARM ADVECTION MOIST ASCENT ACROSS DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT. ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTHWEST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS IOWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL SOUTH OF
SOME OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO...AND CURRENT RUNS
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A TREND TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WRF-NAM CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND HAS BEEN LARGELY DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF A BLEND OF THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SHARP
NORTHERN CUTOFF IN PRECIP/QPF FIELDS...AND HAVE DEPICTED A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM DRY NORTH TO 40-60 PERCENT POPS SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS
AND KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONGEST
850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH 1.8-2.0" PWATS. SLOWLY DAMPING MID-LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS IL/IN FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALLOWS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ONLY WEAK MODEL SIGNALS
OF SPOTTY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS WEAK REGION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
LINGERS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE
12/00Z ECMWF DURING THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
KEY ON AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DEVELOP A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PRESENT A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF
PRECIP. AGAIN HAVE FAVORED THE WEAKER ECMWF SURFACE EVOLUTION AT
THIS DISTANCE...AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST-EAST SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MODEST
AUGUST LAKE COOLING. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE BLENDED BIAS
CORRECTED TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MID-UPPER 70S WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER OR PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MINS GENERALLY 60-65.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EASTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR HIGHER WITH MID TEEN GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY MID MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NOT EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST. DID MAKE CHANGES TO WIND FORECAST...MOVING UP TIMING
OF STRONGER SPEEDS AND INCLUDING GUSTS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND
AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOONER ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LIGHTER WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT
THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
OCCURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LOWS
TRACK BUT WITH LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...HELPING TO LIMIT SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...STILL FEEL THAT
A 10 TO 20 KT WIND IS PROBABLE...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
944 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Leading edge of the rain has been having difficulty making it past
a Galesburg to Paris line, as some drier dew points around 60
degrees have been in place. Small area of dry weather around
Springfield and Jacksonville has been eroding as the next batch of
rain spreads in from the southwest. Latest HRRR guidance does not
show a lot of northeast progression, and have maintained slight
chance PoP`s along the northeast fringes of the forecast area this
afternoon. The southwest CWA will see periodic rain through the
day, while the southeast sees additional showers moving in after a
short late morning break. Precipitable water values of around 1.8
to 1.9 inches will allow for locally heavy rain amounts, and the
first batch of rain has already produced around an inch or so in
the southwest corner of the CWA in a short time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Main forecast concern this period will be with the potential for
heavy rainfall across west central through southern Illinois.
A slow moving upper wave across the Missouri Valley will track
across Missouri today and into Illinois by Friday. At the surface,
a stalled frontal boundary remains south of our forecast area this
morning and is not really expected to move much to the north. As the
upper support tracks across Missouri, low pressure will move along
the stalled frontal boundary to our south, enhancing the low level
convergence along it and focusing the heavy rainfall threat across
far west central through southern Illinois today through tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear
parameters, but precipitable water values are forecast to be around
2.10 inches which is well above normal, even for August standards in
our area. Soundings, no matter what model you look at, indicate
moisture content through the entire air column remains very
impressive, with locally heavy rains from the slow moving
thunderstorms, especially over extreme west central Illinois
southeast into south central Illinois. With a persistent low level
jet orientated perpendicular into the surface and 850 mb frontal
boundary thru tonight, the threat for heavy rainfall is real. Warm
cloud depths of over 13,000 feet indicate the thunderstorms will be
very efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour possible wherever stronger storms concentrate. Rainfall totals
through tonight will range from 1 to 2 inches along and south of a
Rushville to Springfield to Mattoon line, with heavier totals possible
near Jacksonville southwest.
Areas over west central through southern Illinois can stand some
heavy rainfall, at least initially, however, with the high
precipitable water values focused along the stalled frontal
boundary, flooding potential will remain a concern over our west and
southern areas. Further north, big question is when and if rain gets
into our northeast and far eastern areas today as high pressure to
our north has drawn down some drier air and will effectively keep
rain at bay, at least initially for today with only slight chance
PoPs. As the upper wave edges across the state later tonight into early
Friday, rain chances will increase across the northeast and far
eastern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Low pressure will track into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
taking the strongest forcing further east out of the area. Will
continue likely PoPs along/east of I-57 during the morning hours,
with rain chances diminishing across the board as the day
progresses. Models remain in poor agreement this weekend, with the
GFS suggesting scattered showers/thunder both Saturday and Sunday
as region remains within a band of sheared vorticity aloft. ECMWF
is mostly dry, with surface high pressure building southward from
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and lingering frontal boundary well
to the south. Think GFS is being too aggressive with convective
development, particularly in the absence of meaningful forcing, so
have trended toward the drier ECMWF. As a result, have gone dry
for both Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the lower 80s.
After that, a series of weak upper waves will once again dig a
significant trough over eastern Canada/Great Lakes by the middle
of next week. First wave and associated frontal boundary will
swing through Illinois on Monday, accompanied by widely scattered
thunder. Second wave will arrive on Tuesday. After that, high
pressure will resume control of the weather across central
Illinois, allowing a cooler/drier air mass to arrive by next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Forecast challenges this period include precip coverage across the
forecast area and affect on cigs/vsbys. Band of rain has shifted
northeast to a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line with the northern
edge mainly sprinkles out of a mid deck, while south of SPI,
steadier rains has brought the cigs down to MVFR and even some local
IFR cigs were reported over the past hour. May have to include some
tempo MVFR cigs at SPI this morning with the steadier rains holding
over that site, but further to the east and north, with a drier air
mass in place, cigs may have a tough time dropping to MVFR range
today. Best threat for thunder appears to be at SPI, at least for
today with most areas seeing at least VCTS tonight. With better
moisture transport further north late today and tonight, would
think most areas will see MVFR cigs, except for BMI and CMI. Surface
winds will be from an easterly direction thru the period with speeds
of 10 to 15 kts today and from 6 to 11 kts tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
653 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS AREA INTERSECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING IOWA AS IT IS FEEDING THE STORMS IN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL IT
GET. LATEST PROGS BARELY LIFT IT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THUS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SOME WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING OVER IOWA TODAY THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST.
AS FOR QPF...THE 06Z NAM WAS BETTER AT WITH ITS QPF FORECAST THAN
THE 00Z RUN BUT IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TOO MUCH TO THE FORCING AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE HEAVIER PRECIP WAS TIED MORE THE TO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE HOPWRF ALSO WAS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH ON PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR...WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIP...SHOWED THE PRECIP TIED TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY IN MO WITH SCT PRECIP MORE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. I LIKED THE HRRR THE BEST AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BUT DID BLEND POPS WITH THE HOPWRF AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERN
IOWA WAS SPARED FROM PRECIP YESTERDAY IN LARGE PART FROM THE HIGH
PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID PUT A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWEST IN THIS AREA.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH A FAIR PART OF THE MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
GENERALLY DROPPED HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND KEPT THE
NORTHEAST WARMER PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS...LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
FORCING WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING
WHERE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. HOWEVER...THE FORCING
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF IOWA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDING TO THE NORTH. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RELATIVELY LOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DESPITE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME...FORCING WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE
BULK OF FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY AFTER MONDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/12Z
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NRN/CEN MO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE ENE THROUGH THE FCST PD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FCST PD SO IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST MAINLY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE PRECIP WANES. THE LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT WHICH
WILL LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
855 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Quick update to the forecast this morning to account for the latest
trends. As expected, the band of showers over southern IN has
weakened over the past hour or so and should continue to do so
through the remainder of the morning hours. Therefore, have trimmed
pops back a bit for the rest of the morning hours. Also brought the
forecast more in line with current obs.
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Continue to see rain showers north of a frontal boundary, stretching
from central Illinois southeast to KOWB and with very light showers
continuing southeast into our forecast area. Latest HRRR insists
that these showers will dissipate over the next hour or two. Have a
couple of areas of focus for additional development late this
morning and through the afternoon hours. One will be north of the
current band`s axis and the other will be over western KY. Still a
question if lightning will occur with the cells near Louisville.
Forecast soundings show the best instability above 700 mb, so any
cells that develop would be elevated. Cannot rule out one or two
strikes, so have put in isolated storms for the afternoon. Still
think the more strikes will occur with storms that develop in the
more unstable airmass over our southwest forecast area.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Early this morning a frontal boundary lies over the TN Valley. Some
weak lift north of this front is resulting in a thin line of
scattered showers from roughly KSTL TO KOWB. The GFS has this thin
band bringing shower chances into the Louisville Metro throughout
the day. Will go more optimistic than that as we should see a narrow
ridge aloft stabilizing the atmosphere by this afternoon. As for the
rest of the forecast area, still looks like the best chance for
thunderstorms will reside west of the I-65 corridor and closer to
the front to our south.
This front will start lifting north as a warm front late tonight.
Combine that surface forcing with an upper disturbance, now over
Missouri, closer to the region as well as increasing precipitable
waters should make for better rain chances late Thursday night.
Storms look likely areawide for Friday as the warm front stalls
somewhere over southern Indiana and low pressure rides up the lower
Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals through Friday should average around an
inch, with the highest amounts in our far western forecast area.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Friday Night - Saturday...
Wet conditions look to continue Friday night and Saturday as a weak
area of low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley,
interacting with a moist airmass. Will continue mention of scattered
to numerous showers during these two periods. Best focus looks to be
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA Friday night, and across
the southeastern half on Saturday, although everyone has a pretty
decent shot at getting in on the action. PWATs look to still be
around or just below 2 inches through the column so expect the main
threat with any shower or storm to be heavy rain. Cloud to ground
lightning will also be a main concern for outdoor activities. Expect
mild overnight lows on Friday night in the upper 60s in low 70s.
Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection, but low and mid
80s look reasonable.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Shallow and weak NW flow aloft will remain in control of the area as
we end the weekend, meanwhile a weak surface low will meander slowly
just east of the area. This will keep the focus for shower and storm
activity mainly east of I-65, although cannot rule out an isolated
shower over the CWA on Saturday night and Sunday. Coverage mainly
showers should be isolated to widely scattered at best over the
Bluegrass during this time. Look for lows each night mainly in the
upper 60s. A nice temperature gradient looks to set up for highs on
Sunday with upper 80s SW to around 80 in our NE.
Monday - Wednesday...
An upper ridge will build more solidly over the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an impulse will dive
across the Great Lakes and combine with the weak low pressure just
to our NE, helping to amplify a trough over the eastern CONUS. The
Ohio Valley will find itself in the increasing NW flow aloft between
these two features for the first half of next week. This will leave
us in a drier overall pattern, however will likely have to deal with
more diurnally driven convection, and/or any convection that may
fire in response to passing waves embedded in the flow. Have
depicted the best chances for isolated to scattered storm chances
across our SE half of the CWA, with a drier atmosphere anticipated
over our NW closer to a surface high.
Model data supports a warm up in temperatures for the first half of
the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Have nudged the forecast
closer to the upper 80s and low 90s for the SW half of the forecast
area closer to the upper ridge. Being careful to get too aggressive
as some of the rainfall advertised leading up to this time period,
could limit our heating efficiency just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Clouds actually have broken up some over KBWG, leading to lower vsby
down there that at the other sites, where mid/upper clouds are
thicker. Have removed tempo groups for the other sites and put one
in for a few hours at KBWG.
Increasing moisture may be enough for some widely scattered showers
and storms, with the best chance over KBWG late this afternoon. A
few models are showing a narrow band of isolated showers/storms
closer to KSDF in the afternoon. Only have enough confidence to put
in some storms over KBWG late this afternoon, and will monitor
trends to see if we need to put this in for KSDF or not. The system
driving the storms this morning over Missouri will be closer to us
late tonight. Thus we will have a better chance for some rains late
in the period for KSDF and KBWG.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Continue to see rain showers north of a frontal boundary, stretching
from central Illinois southeast to KOWB and with very light showers
continuing southeast into our forecast area. Latest HRRR insists
that these showers will dissipate over the next hour or two. Have a
couple of areas of focus for additional development late this
morning and through the afternoon hours. One will be north of the
current band`s axis and the other will be over western KY. Still a
question if lightning will occur with the cells near Louisville.
Forecast soundings show the best instability above 700 mb, so any
cells that develop would be elevated. Cannot rule out one or two
strikes, so have put in isolated storms for the afternoon. Still
think the more strikes will occur with storms that develop in the
more unstable airmass over our southwest forecast area.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Early this morning a frontal boundary lies over the TN Valley. Some
weak lift north of this front is resulting in a thin line of
scattered showers from roughly KSTL TO KOWB. The GFS has this thin
band bringing shower chances into the Louisville Metro throughout
the day. Will go more optimistic than that as we should see a narrow
ridge aloft stabilizing the atmosphere by this afternoon. As for the
rest of the forecast area, still looks like the best chance for
thunderstorms will reside west of the I-65 corridor and closer to
the front to our south.
This front will start lifting north as a warm front late tonight.
Combine that surface forcing with an upper disturbance, now over
Missouri, closer to the region as well as increasing precipitable
waters should make for better rain chances late Thursday night.
Storms look likely areawide for Friday as the warm front stalls
somewhere over southern Indiana and low pressure rides up the lower
Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals through Friday should average around an
inch, with the highest amounts in our far western forecast area.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Friday Night - Saturday...
Wet conditions look to continue Friday night and Saturday as a weak
area of low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley,
interacting with a moist airmass. Will continue mention of scattered
to numerous showers during these two periods. Best focus looks to be
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA Friday night, and across
the southeastern half on Saturday, although everyone has a pretty
decent shot at getting in on the action. PWATs look to still be
around or just below 2 inches through the column so expect the main
threat with any shower or storm to be heavy rain. Cloud to ground
lightning will also be a main concern for outdoor activities. Expect
mild overnight lows on Friday night in the upper 60s in low 70s.
Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection, but low and mid
80s look reasonable.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Shallow and weak NW flow aloft will remain in control of the area as
we end the weekend, meanwhile a weak surface low will meander slowly
just east of the area. This will keep the focus for shower and storm
activity mainly east of I-65, although cannot rule out an isolated
shower over the CWA on Saturday night and Sunday. Coverage mainly
showers should be isolated to widely scattered at best over the
Bluegrass during this time. Look for lows each night mainly in the
upper 60s. A nice temperature gradient looks to set up for highs on
Sunday with upper 80s SW to around 80 in our NE.
Monday - Wednesday...
An upper ridge will build more solidly over the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an impulse will dive
across the Great Lakes and combine with the weak low pressure just
to our NE, helping to amplify a trough over the eastern CONUS. The
Ohio Valley will find itself in the increasing NW flow aloft between
these two features for the first half of next week. This will leave
us in a drier overall pattern, however will likely have to deal with
more diurnally driven convection, and/or any convection that may
fire in response to passing waves embedded in the flow. Have
depicted the best chances for isolated to scattered storm chances
across our SE half of the CWA, with a drier atmosphere anticipated
over our NW closer to a surface high.
Model data supports a warm up in temperatures for the first half of
the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Have nudged the forecast
closer to the upper 80s and low 90s for the SW half of the forecast
area closer to the upper ridge. Being careful to get too aggressive
as some of the rainfall advertised leading up to this time period,
could limit our heating efficiency just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Clouds actually have broken up some over KBWG, leading to lower vsby
down there that at the other sites, where mid/upper clouds are
thicker. Have removed tempo groups for the other sites and put one
in for a few hours at KBWG.
Increasing moisture may be enough for some widely scattered showers
and storms, with the best chance over KBWG late this afternoon. A
few models are showing a narrow band of isolated showers/storms
closer to KSDF in the afternoon. Only have enough confidence to put
in some storms over KBWG late this afternoon, and will monitor
trends to see if we need to put this in for KSDF or not. The system
driving the storms this morning over Missouri will be closer to us
late tonight. Thus we will have a better chance for some rains late
in the period for KSDF and KBWG.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PUSHING IN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNDER THE
RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW DEEP LAYER
1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS HAS ALLOWED BOTH SOIL AND VEGETATION TO
BECOME DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HAVE KEPT LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR 13C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 14C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 850 THETA E
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER
MI AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER
FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV ALONG WITH
1000-500MB RH. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY ABUNDANT THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE POPS
RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING MOISTURE
NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SWRN NEB EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ITS A LIKELY POP SITUATION AS THE H500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN WY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEB
TONIGHT. THE FCST DELAYS POPS BY 3 HOURS GIVEN THE BIAS IN MODEL
TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE QPF FORECAST.
HPC CARRIES THE BEST QPF MORE SOUTH THRU SWRN NEB THEN WRN KANSAS
BUT THE RAP AND NAM CORFIDI VECTORS FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SHOW EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE BLENDED QPF FORECAST WE
HAVE PREPARED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AND A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STALL THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAL WITH
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS MONTANA BY TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. TIMING OF THE WAVES VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE
IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
A WASH OF A WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH
ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED LATE DAY ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAKENING CAP DUE TO
PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE. THE RICH BL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING PATCHY FOG. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL /LOWER TO MID 80S/ DURING THE DAY
AND MILD OVERNIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK...FLOW BECOMES M0RE NORTHWESTERLY.
MODELS CONTINUE A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES AROUND THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THEY BECOME SPACED OUT MORE. STILL GOING TO SEE OCCASIONAL POPS
WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A
LITTLE. GUIDANCE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS OF THE SFC TO 3000FT WINDS SUGGESTS WEAK OR
NEUTRAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVEN SIGNS OF DIVERGENCE WHICH
WOULD INDICATE THE IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 15Z-18Z ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. KONL AND AREAS EAST MAY REMAIN IN MVFR
UNTIL MID AFTN.
TSTMS DEVELOP AND BECOME NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED.
STORM COVERAGE IS MOSTLY FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM 06Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1027 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REBOUND
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE OPTED TO BUMP DOWN POPS FROM LIKELY IN THE NEK TO MENTION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INSTEAD AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO LESS
INSTABILITY THAN BEFORE. ADDITIONALLY...BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
PVA LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WON`T ALIGN AS WELL WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL ( RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS -20C AT
500MB ACROSS NERN NY WITH CORE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS
DEFINITELY CHILLY FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
7.0-7.5 C/KM. THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS INDICATE THAT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VT.
LIKEWISE...SPC CALIBRATED SREF TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOW THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT BETWEEN 18-21Z TODAY
(40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THIS 3-HR PERIOD). GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE THERMAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTRIBUTING TO WBZ HEIGHTS OF ONLY 6-7 KFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED 0.25-0.50" DIAMETER HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL CAPE (50S SFC
DEWPOINTS) AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. SUNSHINE WILL BE RATHER
INTERMITTENT/LIMITED. COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB
TEMPS OF +8 TO +9C)...SHOULD HOLD AFTN HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 70S
FOR MOST SECTIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE NW AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION GENERALLY
DRIVEN BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PBL HEATING...ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY
WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET UP GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG IN
THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS 04-12Z FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. 700-500MB HEIGHTS PROGRESSIVELY
RISE FROM W-E THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STILL SOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WHERE WE/VE
KEPT A 20 POP FOR A STRAY DAYTIME SHOWER. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. P-GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING NW WINDS 5-10 MPH FROM LATE
MORNING THRU AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. 850MB TEMPS
BEGIN TO RECOVER AS WELL WITH EWD DEPARTURE OF THERMAL TROUGH.
LOOKING AT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO
NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS 04-12Z SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN (JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DOT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS). LIGHT NW WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S...BUT
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN MODEST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-
UPR 50S. POPS NIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH DRY WARM
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C-14C SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 14C-15C. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME MAXES RANGING
FROM THE U60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO L60S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS UPPER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM MOIST S TO SW FLOW. UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NGT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV AND KBTV...BUT
CIGS WILL LIFT BY 13Z/14Z AND EXPECT GENERALLY VFR LOW AND MID
LVL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS MID-LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HRS. INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME
HEATING/SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN PSBL THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DWINDLE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. BR/FG DEVELOPMENT PSBL AFTER 05Z...ESP
AT KSLK AND KMPV.
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW TO 6-12KTS TODAY...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT TO CALM.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REBOUND
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 724 AM EDT THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL VORT CENTERED
75MI NE OF MONTREAL QUEBEC PER 11Z IR IMAGERY WILL BE THE
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LEADING
BAND OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION BROUGHT PRE-DAWN
SHOWERS ACROSS VT...WHICH ARE NOW EXITING/WEAKENING ACROSS WINDSOR
COUNTY. EXPECTATION IS THAT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FORM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS AS A RESULT OF STEEP
LOW- MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT AND
INSOLATIONAL HEATING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS -20C AT 500MB
ACROSS NERN NY WITH CORE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS DEFINITELY
CHILLY FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE 7.0-7.5
C/KM. THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VT.
LIKEWISE...SPC CALIBRATED SREF TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOW THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT BETWEEN 18-21Z TODAY
(40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THIS 3-HR PERIOD). GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE THERMAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTRIBUTING TO WBZ HEIGHTS OF ONLY 6-7 KFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED 0.25-0.50" DIAMETER HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL CAPE (50S SFC
DEWPOINTS) AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. SUNSHINE WILL BE RATHER
INTERMITTENT/LIMITED. COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB
TEMPS OF +8 TO +9C)...SHOULD HOLD AFTN HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 70S
FOR MOST SECTIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE NW AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION GENERALLY DRIVEN BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND PBL HEATING...ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SET UP GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS 04-12Z FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. 700-500MB
HEIGHTS PROGRESSIVELY RISE FROM W-E THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STILL SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF
VERMONT...WHERE WE/VE KEPT A 20 POP FOR A STRAY DAYTIME SHOWER.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
P-GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING NW
WINDS 5-10 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THRU AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER AS WELL WITH EWD
DEPARTURE OF THERMAL TROUGH. LOOKING AT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO
NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS 04-12Z SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN (JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DOT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS). LIGHT NW WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EXPECTED.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN MODEST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 50S. POPS NIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH DRY WARM
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C-14C SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 14C-15C. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME MAXES RANGING
FROM THE U60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO L60S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS UPPER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM MOIST S TO SW FLOW. UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NGT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV AND KBTV...BUT
CIGS WILL LIFT BY 13Z/14Z AND EXPECT GENERALLY VFR LOW AND MID
LVL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS MID-LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HRS. INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME
HEATING/SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN PSBL THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DWINDLE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES. BR/FG DEVELOPMENT PSBL AFTER 05Z...ESP
AT KSLK AND KMPV.
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW TO 6-12KTS TODAY...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT TO CALM.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
A DYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AT THIS TIME. THE MCS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE
LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM SHOW CONVECTION EITHER CONTINUING OR
REDEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROF. WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD HIGH IF THE CONVECTION OCCURS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMPS ALONE.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
CURRENT WEATHER TONIGHT IS CLOSE TO A COPY AS IT GETS FROM LAST
NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING MCS IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH CALM OR LIGHT WINDS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS/APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPWIND SIDE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TODAY WILL DRIVE CURRENT PW`S NEAR 1.50 INCHES...TO ABOVE
2 INCHES BY TONIGHT...THEN HOLD CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW KEEPING ANY FLASH FLOODING MORE
LOCALIZED AS SEVERAL MIDSOUTH COUNTIES HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN IN OVER TWO WEEKS. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 3000 J/KG AND LI`S DIP TO NEAR -10C.
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL
FORMATION...IT WILL BE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY...BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S...TO LOW 100S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THIS PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CURRENTLY THE
GFS IS FASTER. A DEEPER TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLIP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IT`S WAY
SOUTH AND EAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (07/12Z-08/12Z)
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION ENCOUNTERING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. PUT TEMPO
GROUPS IN THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR WHEN
AND WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS GREATEST. OUTSIDE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR
TODAY...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR AT KJBR AND KMKL TONIGHT.
WINDS S-SW 5-9 KTS TODAY AND 3-6 KTS TONIGHT...VARIABLE AND STRONGER
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
JCL
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS WARMED UP
TEMPERATURES A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT READINGS ARE
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO OVERDO ITS CONVECTION
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT I-35 TERMINAL SITES
FROM 09Z TO 15Z THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE UP TODAY OVER PREVIOUS DAYS SINCE A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING FROM THE GREAT BASING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SMALL PATCH OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD INLAND ABOUT
TO I-35...THEN SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY MID- MORNING WITH DAYTIME
MIXING. A SIMILAR PATTERN OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
TO VERY ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A TUTT LOW
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
INCLUDED A 20 PCT POP FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO COVER THIS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS STRONGER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY(S) OF THE SUMMER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WEST OVER THE ROCKIES AS
A NEW TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS INDICATES
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
BRING SOME RAIN AUGUST 15-17TH...BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THAT...SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 99 75 98 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 73 100 72 98 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 73 100 72 99 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 98 73 97 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 101 77 98 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 74 97 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 98 72 97 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 99 73 98 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 98 75 97 / 10 - - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 98 76 97 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 74 98 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
429 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
A GOOD FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM
WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE LLVLS ARE QUITE
MOIST YET AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60F OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WOULD BE
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS OVER WESTERN NE WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
LESS THAN 2 DEG. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR CDR AND SNY SHOW CIGS
IMPROVING AFTER 15Z BUT STILL INDICATE LLVL SATURATION. A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY...SO SLASHED FCST HIGHS TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES
AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET FAR INTO THE 80S WITH PCPN INCREASING
BY EARLY AFTN. STILL LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A SMALL PIECE OF
MIDLVL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. DECENT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH A MODEST
60 KT H25 JET MOVING OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE SCT COVERAGE OF STORMS
FOR MOST AREAS AS MIDLVL RH PROGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION BY 00Z FRI. PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE DO
HAVE A 5 PCT RISK AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR EAST OF CHEYENNE. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
POCKETS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPES OVER THE PLAINS WHICH COULD AID
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS YET AGAIN. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
ORGANIZATION WE WILL SEE THOUGH AS BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SPOTTY AT BEST WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLVL FLOW...SO WENT WITH
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE IN THE
GRIDS. EFFICIENT RAINERS EXPECTED WITH GFS PWATS APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES AND K-INDEX VALUES NEAR 40C OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW.
THE MODELS KEY IN ON A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. QPF RETURNS DEFINITELY COME DOWN...BUT
WITH GOOD 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 06Z...MAINLY NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS NEAR-SFC
RH VALUES RISE TO NEAR 100 PCT BY 12Z FRI. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE
THE HEAVIER PCPN FALLS BEFORE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE LOCATIONS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS. YET ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL WY AFTER 15Z FRI. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...PCPN COVERAGE WILL
PEAK DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH MODERATE CAPES AHEAD OF DRYLINE ALONG THE WY/NE
BORDER. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 60S AT 00Z SAT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. THINKING FRIDAY MAY BE THE DAY TO SEE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AS MORE WIDESPREAD H5 FLOW AROUND 30 KTS ENHANCES
SHEAR. PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME ON SAT... THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA. A LITTLE WARMER ALOFT
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH LESS OVERALL PCPN COVERAGE...SO EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THU-FRI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS IN MUCH
QUESTION. CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERYDAY BUT COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL PATTERN WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DYING OFF BY MIDNIGHT MOST DAYS. WITHOUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
OVER THE AREA AT NIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY. THAT SAID THE ECMWF DOES MOVE A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. NOT BUYING OFF ON THAT SOLUTION
100 PERCENT AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD THE SOLUTION VERIFY THERE WOULD
BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2014
CONVECTION HAS NEARLY COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. REMNANT CELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE
WYOMING/COLORADO STATE LINE. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS PAST EVENING AND WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING. HRRR SHOWS THIS REALLY WELL AND FOLLOWED
ITS GUIDANCE. KCDR AND KAIA SHOULD FALL TO IFR/VLIFR AFTER 09Z OR
SHORTLY THERE AFTER. CONVECTION RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS AT SOME
POINT AS STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 75 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
335 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...
OBVIOUSLY FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE...A COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
OTHER OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE
NAM12...AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE GFS40...HAVE HAD THIS CONCEPT.
THESE RUNS ALL TAKE THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
PUEBLO COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...STARTING
AROUND 22Z OR SO. THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW COMING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOMETHING LIKE
THIS MAY HAPPEN...WITH 2 POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS EMERGING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND INDICATIONS OF LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER
FREMONT COUNTY.
IN ANY EVENT...SHEERS ARE MARGINAL...MAYBE 25-35 KNOTS...BUT
ADEQUATE ENOUGH...FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED WITH FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TAKE
A HIT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 04Z.
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z AT THIS POINT. LW
TOMORROW...OVERALL...LOOKS QUIETER AT THIS TIME. PROBABLY MORE
STABLE WITH LESS OF A TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. A
TRIGGER SEEMS TO EMERGE IN THE MODELS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
CONVECTION DOWN OUR WAY. COULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AGAIN IF
THAT OCCURS. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER KIOWA AND NEARBY COUNTIES. ON
SUNDAY..CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER SURGE FROM THE NORTH...WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE FEATURES. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WEAK SHEAR SO
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE EVENING.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS...EC AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE INITIAL RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO...THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO UNDER THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONES WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA...AND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO ADVECT MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THE GRIDS HAVE A
MODEST DRYING TREND...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE SOME
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING...1 INCH HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
AFFECTING TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH 01Z WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO IMPACT THE PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
TOMORROW...MORE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
103 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO A MATURE MCS OVER MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE
REGION OF WARM ADVECTION MOIST ASCENT ACROSS DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT. ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTHWEST ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS IOWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL SOUTH OF
SOME OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO...AND CURRENT RUNS
HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON A TREND TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WFO LOT CWA TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WRF-NAM CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND HAS BEEN LARGELY DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF A BLEND OF THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SHARP
NORTHERN CUTOFF IN PRECIP/QPF FIELDS...AND HAVE DEPICTED A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM DRY NORTH TO 40-60 PERCENT POPS SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS
AND KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONGEST
850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH 1.8-2.0" PWATS. SLOWLY DAMPING MID-LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS IL/IN FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALLOWS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ONLY WEAK MODEL SIGNALS
OF SPOTTY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS WEAK REGION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
LINGERS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE
12/00Z ECMWF DURING THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
KEY ON AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DEVELOP A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PRESENT A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF
PRECIP. AGAIN HAVE FAVORED THE WEAKER ECMWF SURFACE EVOLUTION AT
THIS DISTANCE...AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST-EAST SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MODEST
AUGUST LAKE COOLING. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE BLENDED BIAS
CORRECTED TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MID-UPPER 70S WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER OR PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MINS GENERALLY 60-65.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EASTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR HIGHER WITH MID TEEN GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY
MID MORNING.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS WITH
OCCASIONAL MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR GUSTS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A LULL OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS THE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION REMAINS
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN TIER.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LIGHTER WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT
THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
OCCURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LOWS
TRACK BUT WITH LATEST TRENDS SUPPORTING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...HELPING TO LIMIT SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...STILL FEEL THAT
A 10 TO 20 KT WIND IS PROBABLE...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Leading edge of the rain has been having difficulty making it past
a Galesburg to Paris line, as some drier dew points around 60
degrees have been in place. Small area of dry weather around
Springfield and Jacksonville has been eroding as the next batch of
rain spreads in from the southwest. Latest HRRR guidance does not
show a lot of northeast progression, and have maintained slight
chance PoP`s along the northeast fringes of the forecast area this
afternoon. The southwest CWA will see periodic rain through the
day, while the southeast sees additional showers moving in after a
short late morning break. Precipitable water values of around 1.8
to 1.9 inches will allow for locally heavy rain amounts, and the
first batch of rain has already produced around an inch or so in
the southwest corner of the CWA in a short time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Main forecast concern this period will be with the potential for
heavy rainfall across west central through southern Illinois.
A slow moving upper wave across the Missouri Valley will track
across Missouri today and into Illinois by Friday. At the surface,
a stalled frontal boundary remains south of our forecast area this
morning and is not really expected to move much to the north. As the
upper support tracks across Missouri, low pressure will move along
the stalled frontal boundary to our south, enhancing the low level
convergence along it and focusing the heavy rainfall threat across
far west central through southern Illinois today through tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear
parameters, but precipitable water values are forecast to be around
2.10 inches which is well above normal, even for August standards in
our area. Soundings, no matter what model you look at, indicate
moisture content through the entire air column remains very
impressive, with locally heavy rains from the slow moving
thunderstorms, especially over extreme west central Illinois
southeast into south central Illinois. With a persistent low level
jet orientated perpendicular into the surface and 850 mb frontal
boundary thru tonight, the threat for heavy rainfall is real. Warm
cloud depths of over 13,000 feet indicate the thunderstorms will be
very efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour possible wherever stronger storms concentrate. Rainfall totals
through tonight will range from 1 to 2 inches along and south of a
Rushville to Springfield to Mattoon line, with heavier totals possible
near Jacksonville southwest.
Areas over west central through southern Illinois can stand some
heavy rainfall, at least initially, however, with the high
precipitable water values focused along the stalled frontal
boundary, flooding potential will remain a concern over our west and
southern areas. Further north, big question is when and if rain gets
into our northeast and far eastern areas today as high pressure to
our north has drawn down some drier air and will effectively keep
rain at bay, at least initially for today with only slight chance
PoPs. As the upper wave edges across the state later tonight into early
Friday, rain chances will increase across the northeast and far
eastern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Low pressure will track into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
taking the strongest forcing further east out of the area. Will
continue likely PoPs along/east of I-57 during the morning hours,
with rain chances diminishing across the board as the day
progresses. Models remain in poor agreement this weekend, with the
GFS suggesting scattered showers/thunder both Saturday and Sunday
as region remains within a band of sheared vorticity aloft. ECMWF
is mostly dry, with surface high pressure building southward from
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and lingering frontal boundary well
to the south. Think GFS is being too aggressive with convective
development, particularly in the absence of meaningful forcing, so
have trended toward the drier ECMWF. As a result, have gone dry
for both Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the lower 80s.
After that, a series of weak upper waves will once again dig a
significant trough over eastern Canada/Great Lakes by the middle
of next week. First wave and associated frontal boundary will
swing through Illinois on Monday, accompanied by widely scattered
thunder. Second wave will arrive on Tuesday. After that, high
pressure will resume control of the weather across central
Illinois, allowing a cooler/drier air mass to arrive by next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
Large rain shield slowly working its way eastward this afternoon,
but has had trouble penetrating the KPIA-KCMI corridor. Little
visibility restriction anticipated in this area during the
afternoon. However, heavier showers reducing visibility to 3 or 4
SM around KSPI and soon at KDEC. Large range in ceilings this
afternoon, but most likely persistent MVFR conditions expected at
KSPI where the rain will be most steady. The rain will become more
widely scattered this evening, allowing ceilings to come back up
for a time, but have brought them back down again late in the
night. Winds to continue from the east-southeast through the
period due to slow moving low pressure in Missouri.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1218 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS AREA INTERSECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING IOWA AS IT IS FEEDING THE STORMS IN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL IT
GET. LATEST PROGS BARELY LIFT IT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THUS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA WHERE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SOME WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING OVER IOWA TODAY THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TODAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST.
AS FOR QPF...THE 06Z NAM WAS BETTER AT WITH ITS QPF FORECAST THAN
THE 00Z RUN BUT IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TOO MUCH TO THE FORCING AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE HEAVIER PRECIP WAS TIED MORE THE TO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE HOPWRF ALSO WAS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH ON PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR...WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIP...SHOWED THE PRECIP TIED TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY IN MO WITH SCT PRECIP MORE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. I LIKED THE HRRR THE BEST AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BUT DID BLEND POPS WITH THE HOPWRF AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERN
IOWA WAS SPARED FROM PRECIP YESTERDAY IN LARGE PART FROM THE HIGH
PARKED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID PUT A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT POP CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWEST IN THIS AREA.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH A FAIR PART OF THE MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND DEEP
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
GENERALLY DROPPED HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND KEPT THE
NORTHEAST WARMER PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS...LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
FORCING WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING
WHERE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. HOWEVER...THE FORCING
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF IOWA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDING TO THE NORTH. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP DIURNAL RANGES RELATIVELY LOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DESPITE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME...FORCING WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE
BULK OF FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY AFTER MONDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NW FROM SFC LOW IN NRN MO WILL HELP KEEP IFR/LIFR LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
AT ALL BUT THE KALO AND KMCW TERMINALS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP VSBYS AND CIGS LOW. CONDS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...ZOGG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A TROUGH IS MOVING ON SHORE TODAY ON THE WESTERN COAST WITH MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MAIN SYSTEMS BOTH THE CURRENT HIGH AND PROGRESSING TROUGH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SITUATED AND EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THESE RIPPLES ARE OFFSET
AND ALMOST DOING THEIR OWN THING. A MESSY PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES GIVEN A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REACHING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE CHANCES MAINLY REACHING
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF LAST EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WIDER AREA OF EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR GIVEN ITS DECENT FORECAST SUCCESS WITH THE
ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT...WAS UTILIZED FOR ASSISTANCE IN
ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL STUFF WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LESS SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY THAN LAST NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE SHEAR AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS WERE ALTERED AND WILL VERY WELL BE TWEAKED
WITH EACH FORECAST GIVEN THE ATTEMPTS OF THE MODELS TO GET A
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JUANITA
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A RIDGE IS SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
RESPECTIVE FEATURES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING AN IMPACT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL AND RESPECTIVE RUN THAT ONE WOULD LIKE TO CONSIDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.
JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KS TO CENTRAL MO WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN OK BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL. ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATE THIS PM/EVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF ICT
AND CNU TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
PM/EVE...MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
APPROACH AS FAR EAST AS RSL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER EAST...GIVEN MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
RSL. IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT RSL...SLN...AND
CNU.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 89 69 92 / 30 20 40 20
HUTCHINSON 69 87 68 91 / 30 30 40 20
NEWTON 68 87 68 90 / 30 30 40 20
ELDORADO 69 88 68 90 / 30 30 40 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 91 70 92 / 20 20 40 30
RUSSELL 68 85 67 89 / 50 30 50 20
GREAT BEND 68 86 67 89 / 50 30 50 20
SALINA 68 87 67 91 / 30 30 40 20
MCPHERSON 68 86 67 90 / 30 30 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 90 70 91 / 20 20 30 30
CHANUTE 69 87 68 90 / 20 30 30 30
IOLA 67 86 68 89 / 20 30 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 69 91 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Quick update to the forecast this morning to account for the latest
trends. As expected, the band of showers over southern IN has
weakened over the past hour or so and should continue to do so
through the remainder of the morning hours. Therefore, have trimmed
pops back a bit for the rest of the morning hours. Also brought the
forecast more in line with current obs.
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Continue to see rain showers north of a frontal boundary, stretching
from central Illinois southeast to KOWB and with very light showers
continuing southeast into our forecast area. Latest HRRR insists
that these showers will dissipate over the next hour or two. Have a
couple of areas of focus for additional development late this
morning and through the afternoon hours. One will be north of the
current band`s axis and the other will be over western KY. Still a
question if lightning will occur with the cells near Louisville.
Forecast soundings show the best instability above 700 mb, so any
cells that develop would be elevated. Cannot rule out one or two
strikes, so have put in isolated storms for the afternoon. Still
think the more strikes will occur with storms that develop in the
more unstable airmass over our southwest forecast area.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Early this morning a frontal boundary lies over the TN Valley. Some
weak lift north of this front is resulting in a thin line of
scattered showers from roughly KSTL TO KOWB. The GFS has this thin
band bringing shower chances into the Louisville Metro throughout
the day. Will go more optimistic than that as we should see a narrow
ridge aloft stabilizing the atmosphere by this afternoon. As for the
rest of the forecast area, still looks like the best chance for
thunderstorms will reside west of the I-65 corridor and closer to
the front to our south.
This front will start lifting north as a warm front late tonight.
Combine that surface forcing with an upper disturbance, now over
Missouri, closer to the region as well as increasing precipitable
waters should make for better rain chances late Thursday night.
Storms look likely areawide for Friday as the warm front stalls
somewhere over southern Indiana and low pressure rides up the lower
Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals through Friday should average around an
inch, with the highest amounts in our far western forecast area.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
Friday Night - Saturday...
Wet conditions look to continue Friday night and Saturday as a weak
area of low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley,
interacting with a moist airmass. Will continue mention of scattered
to numerous showers during these two periods. Best focus looks to be
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA Friday night, and across
the southeastern half on Saturday, although everyone has a pretty
decent shot at getting in on the action. PWATs look to still be
around or just below 2 inches through the column so expect the main
threat with any shower or storm to be heavy rain. Cloud to ground
lightning will also be a main concern for outdoor activities. Expect
mild overnight lows on Friday night in the upper 60s in low 70s.
Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection, but low and mid
80s look reasonable.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Shallow and weak NW flow aloft will remain in control of the area as
we end the weekend, meanwhile a weak surface low will meander slowly
just east of the area. This will keep the focus for shower and storm
activity mainly east of I-65, although cannot rule out an isolated
shower over the CWA on Saturday night and Sunday. Coverage, mainly
showers, should be isolated to widely scattered at best over the
Bluegrass during this time. Look for lows each night mainly in the
upper 60s. A nice temperature gradient looks to set up for highs on
Sunday with upper 80s SW to around 80 in our NE.
Monday - Wednesday...
An upper ridge will build more solidly over the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an impulse will dive
across the Great Lakes and combine with the weak low pressure just
to our NE, helping to amplify a trough over the eastern CONUS. The
Ohio Valley will find itself in the increasing NW flow aloft between
these two features for the first half of next week. This will leave
us in a drier overall pattern, however will likely have to deal with
more diurnally driven convection, and/or any convection that may
fire in response to passing waves embedded in the flow. Have
depicted the best chances for isolated to scattered storm chances
across our SE half of the CWA, with a drier atmosphere anticipated
over our NW closer to a surface high.
Model data supports a warm up in temperatures for the first half of
the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Have nudged the forecast
closer to the upper 80s and low 90s for the SW half of the forecast
area closer to the upper ridge. Being careful to not get too
aggressive as some of the rainfall advertised leading up to this
time period, could limit our heating efficiency just a bit.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014
VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon into this evening,
before some deteriorating conditions approach early Friday morning
through the rest of the TAF period. For the remainder of this
afternoon, generally dry conditions should prevail. There is a
chance of a stray shower or storm near KBWG, thus will continue
with a brief period of VCTS mention there. Otherwise, expect some
diurnal cu along with increasing mid and high clouds.
Showers and a few embedded storms will increase in coverage tonight
as deep moisture pushes into the region. Have tried to time the
best coverage of precip into terminals with -SHRA wording. There
may be some thunderstorms as well, but confidence is not high enough
in storm coverage to include VCTS wording. Conditions could drop to
MVFR in the heavier showers, but should generally remain VFR outside
of any precip.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING. PERSISTENCE IS THE
WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE VERY MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH HEADS SOUTHEAST 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z TUE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THU. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MON INTO TUE AND
THEN DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH SFC HI PRES ELONGATED FM
JAMES BAY INTO FAR WRN LK SUP. VERY DRY/STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RDG HAVE RESULTED ARE BRINGING MOCLR SKIES TO THE CWA. WITH LGT
WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THERE IS A
SHRTWV JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD...AND THERE
ARE SOME BKN MID/HI CLDS OVER NW MN AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
TEMPS/RH/FIRE WX PARAMETERS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES ARE FCST TO DOMINATE THRU TNGT.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO CENTER OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS
UPR RDG SHIFTS TO AN AXIS FM UPR MI TO JAMES BAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCT CU ALONG AND INLAND FM LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT DVLP UNDER THE
RATHER FLAT PRES GRADIENT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY HI CLDS WELL TO THE
S OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO...THE DAY WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK AT 13-14C OVER THE W THIS
AFTN...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S/LO 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND ALONG LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE E H925 FLOW. SFC
DEWPTS SHOULD MIX OUT AS LO AS THE UPR 40S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN
MIN RH DOWN TO 30-35 PCT AWAY FM LK MODERATION. DESPITE RECENT
DRYNESS AT MANY LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS WL MITIGATE THE FIRE WX
THREAT.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP...EXPECT
DRY WX. ALTHOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...SOME HI CLDS
MAY DRIFT THRU THE UPR LKS ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIFTING TOWARD
JAMES BAY. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S...COOLEST OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE HI AND LIGHTER H925
WINDS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E...WHERE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AOB CROSS OVER DEWPTS THIS
AFTN. A BIT STRONGER S WIND AT H925 WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OVER
THE W.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN PUSHING IN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNDER THE
RIDGE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY LOW DEEP LAYER
1000-500MB RH VALUES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS HAS ALLOWED BOTH SOIL AND VEGETATION TO
BECOME DRY. DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HAVE KEPT LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR 13C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 14C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 850 THETA E
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER
MI AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER
FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV ALONG WITH
1000-500MB RH. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OVERLY ABUNDANT THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE POPS
RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE FAIRLY NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LINGERING MOISTURE
NEARBY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AND WAVES GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FT.
AFTER THE HI FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. N WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT HI PRES BUILDING
OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIMING BEST PCPN
CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING. A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER BUT MOVING OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED AROUND
500 MB WAS OVER NRN UT. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE
NOTED FROM UT INTO WY AND CO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS NOTED OVER WRN IA. KOAX SOUNDING FROM
12Z SHOWED ABOUT 1.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH DID NOT DO A PERFECT JOB
LAST EVENING...BUT WAS FAIRLY GOOD...SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD TEND TO BUILD IN
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER DRYING A BIT.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG...SO ADDED THAT. THE SPOTTY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY FROM 63 TO 66. SOME
LIGHT PCPN COULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER FRIDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND
SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN
TO MAINLY THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW RAIN AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
THEN WENT MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT
TURNS WET TOWARD DAY 7 WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND LIFTED INDICES DROP. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
80S AND LOWS 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
VARIABLE SKY AND VSBYS. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT WESTERN AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARD
KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SWRN NEB EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
ITS A LIKELY POP SITUATION AS THE H500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN WY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEB
TONIGHT. THE FCST DELAYS POPS BY 3 HOURS GIVEN THE BIAS IN MODEL
TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE QPF FORECAST.
HPC CARRIES THE BEST QPF MORE SOUTH THRU SWRN NEB THEN WRN KANSAS
BUT THE RAP AND NAM CORFIDI VECTORS FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
SHOW EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE BLENDED QPF FORECAST WE
HAVE PREPARED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AND A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS STALL THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAL WITH
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS MONTANA BY TUESDAY. THE
WESTERN LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. TIMING OF THE WAVES VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FORECAST
WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE
IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
A WASH OF A WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH
ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED LATE DAY ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAKENING CAP DUE TO
PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE. THE RICH BL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING PATCHY FOG. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL /LOWER TO MID 80S/ DURING THE DAY
AND MILD OVERNIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK...FLOW BECOMES M0RE NORTHWESTERLY.
MODELS CONTINUE A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES AROUND THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THEY BECOME SPACED OUT MORE. STILL GOING TO SEE OCCASIONAL POPS
WITH EACH WAVE...AND TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A
LITTLE. GUIDANCE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE SPARKS OFF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WITH FURTHER
HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...PROVIDING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK
OF A STRONG OR SEVERE TSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST WHERE WET MICROBURSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE...BUT THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE...WITH POSSIBLE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS. AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
649 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL STALL ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH MARION TO JUST NORTH OF KINGSTREE.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE STALLING AT THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES SEEN IN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RADAR DATA. WE CAN EVEN SEE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF LAKE WACCAMAW BUT WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS STRUGGLING. THIS MAY BE THE HIGH LCL
VALUES AND THE STORMS ARE NEEDING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN WHAT IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOW CONVECTION A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GENERALLY THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITIES ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT BUT
THERE IS ABSOLUTE NO CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE OTHER FORCING IN THE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE HRRR IS NOT BULLISH ON CONVECTION ON
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SO HAVE A GONE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND A TAILING BAND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTION IS NOT THAT HIGH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATES 20 AND 95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS FRI MORNING...BUT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.
THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING
FRI...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
POPS WILL REMAIN LOWER ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI...
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BY 12Z SAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PCPN CHANCES AREA-WIDE. PWATS SURGE ABOVE
2.0 INCHES ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SAT AFTN AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER IMPULSES ALLOW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF 5-10 KT AT
BEST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. THIS YIELDED HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN TO MODIFY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME...A PROGRESSIVE S/W
RIDGE TO BYPASS THE FA TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
THE ILM CWA...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL GET LEFT BEHIND THRU TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVBL AS SEEN THRU MODEL SOUNDINGS. POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED HIER
THAN CLIMO ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HRS. WILL KEEP TEMPS A CAT
OR 2 BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
FOR WED THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROFFING ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE U.S. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ILM CWA...IS THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO GET THIS...STALL ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THIS BECAUSE THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THUS ELIMINATING ANY FURTHER SE PUSH
TO THE COLD FRONT. POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED ABOVE CLIMO
DUE TO THE AVBL FORCING AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AT THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE ILM FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOREST
INLAND...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WAVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
EASTERLY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE SEA BREEZE HAS HELPED BRING A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH A WEAKER WEST WIND TO THE EAST
OF THIS DENSITY CURRENT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS DO TO A LACK OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE SWELL FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM
NOW A NON- PLAYER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF WEAK BACKGROUND SE SWELL AND LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT FRI. AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SAT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS TO A SOLID 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS
MET THIS PERIOD.
HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT ONCE AGAIN THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST THRUOUT THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. OVERALL...HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE GFS
MODEL INPUT. THE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE THE EASIER OF THE 2 WIND
PARAMETERS. BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU
THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THE PROGGED SFC LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS. THAT IS WHERE THE PROGGED HIER WIND
SPEEDS WILL RESIDE. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM WATERS
WILL OCCUR AT ALMOST ANY TIME DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...MAINLY FROM
AN ESE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS COULD REACH 4 FEET OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE 4 FOOTERS WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/BJR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL STALL ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH MARION TO JUST NORTH OF KINGSTREE.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE STALLING AT THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES SEEN IN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RADAR DATA. WE CAN EVEN SEE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF LAKE WACCAMAW BUT WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS STRUGGLING. THIS MAY BE THE HIGH LCL
VALUES AND THE STORMS ARE NEEDING A BIT MORE LIFT THAN WHAT IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOW CONVECTION A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GENERALLY THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITIES ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT BUT
THERE IS ABSOLUTE NO CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE OTHER FORCING IN THE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE HRRR IS NOT BULLISH ON CONVECTION ON
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SO HAVE A GONE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND A TAILING BAND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE COAST...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTION IS NOT THAT HIGH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATES 20 AND 95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS FRI MORNING...BUT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.
THOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING
FRI...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
POPS WILL REMAIN LOWER ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI...
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BY 12Z SAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PCPN CHANCES AREA-WIDE. PWATS SURGE ABOVE
2.0 INCHES ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SAT AFTN AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER IMPULSES ALLOW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF 5-10 KT AT
BEST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. THIS YIELDED HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN TO MODIFY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME...A PROGRESSIVE S/W
RIDGE TO BYPASS THE FA TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
THE ILM CWA...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL GET LEFT BEHIND THRU TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVBL AS SEEN THRU MODEL SOUNDINGS. POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED HIER
THAN CLIMO ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HRS. WILL KEEP TEMPS A CAT
OR 2 BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
FOR WED THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROFFING ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE U.S. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ILM CWA...IS THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO GET THIS...STALL ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THIS BECAUSE THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THUS ELIMINATING ANY FURTHER SE PUSH
TO THE COLD FRONT. POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED ABOVE CLIMO
DUE TO THE AVBL FORCING AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL BISECT THE INLAND AND COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SE-S AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND NW-N AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACTUAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES PER MOS
GUIDANCE ARE LOW...BUT FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT...AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AS DRYING INCREASES
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRBL.
MVFR VSBYS IN BR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT. KFLO/KLBT WILL HAVE A REASONABLE SHOT OF IFR/LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS AFTER 08Z.
VFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT KFLO/KLBT. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE ENE-ESE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE SEA BREEZE HAS HELPED BRING A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH A WEAKER WEST WIND TO THE EAST
OF THIS DENSITY CURRENT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS DO TO A LACK OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE SWELL FROM THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM
NOW A NON- PLAYER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF WEAK BACKGROUND SE SWELL AND LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT FRI. AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SAT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS TO A SOLID 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS
MET THIS PERIOD.
HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT ONCE AGAIN THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST THRUOUT THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. OVERALL...HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE GFS
MODEL INPUT. THE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE THE EASIER OF THE 2 WIND
PARAMETERS. BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU
THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THE PROGGED SFC LOW ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS. THAT IS WHERE THE PROGGED HIER WIND
SPEEDS WILL RESIDE. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM WATERS
WILL OCCUR AT ALMOST ANY TIME DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...MAINLY FROM
AN ESE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS COULD REACH 4 FEET OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE 4 FOOTERS WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/BJR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ON NORTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPANDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND
NORTHWEST MN. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE AREAS
FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY TAPER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SLOWLY SLIPS
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE MIGHT
BE SOME RESIDUAL SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE -NON MEASURABLE - LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LATE FORM TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 TO 65.
WITH COOL AND MOIST MID LEVELS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY...DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH
A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AGAIN...WITH SOME DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SUPPORT COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
WEAK H5 FLOW EARLY IN THE PD WONT HELP FOCUS ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. ON FRI NIGHT...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALL WEST OF THE JAMES...WILL PROVIDE SOME IMPETUS FOR SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE ENTIRE
CWA.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE AT H5 AND H7 BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE CWA. POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE CAT AS A COOL FRONT
PASSES THROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REALLY JUST WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA.
FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY OVERALL PATTERN TURNS TO RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST. THIS LOW WILL EJECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWVS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NW FLOW OVER THE
CWA BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF TSRA EVERY OTHER DAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER WAVE/TROF APPROACHES ON WED/THURS SO HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE THEN.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MVFR AND IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA...WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST AND DRIZZLE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA INTO FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR AND COULD DROP TO IFR AGAIN TONIGHT IN
PATCHY FOG. ADDED LOWER VISIBILITY TO 2 SM FROM 09 TO 12Z IN ALL TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. NOT SEEING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
UPDATE...
A DYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AT THIS TIME. THE MCS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE
LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM SHOW CONVECTION EITHER CONTINUING OR
REDEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROF. WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD HIGH IF THE CONVECTION OCCURS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMPS ALONE.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
CURRENT WEATHER TONIGHT IS CLOSE TO A COPY AS IT GETS FROM LAST
NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING MCS IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH CALM OR LIGHT WINDS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS/APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPWIND SIDE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TODAY WILL DRIVE CURRENT PW`S NEAR 1.50 INCHES...TO ABOVE
2 INCHES BY TONIGHT...THEN HOLD CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW KEEPING ANY FLASH FLOODING MORE
LOCALIZED AS SEVERAL MIDSOUTH COUNTIES HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN IN OVER TWO WEEKS. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 3000 J/KG AND LI`S DIP TO NEAR -10C.
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL
FORMATION...IT WILL BE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY...BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S...TO LOW 100S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THIS PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CURRENTLY THE
GFS IS FASTER. A DEEPER TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLIP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IT`S WAY
SOUTH AND EAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
JAB
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT
KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR AND ADDED ONE AT KTUP. SHORT RANGE MODELS
POINTS TOWARD A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDS OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRAS AND MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDS INVOF
SHRAS/TSRAS. SW WINDS 6-10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KMEM AND
KJBR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO SW FRIDAY
MORNING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CU IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TOMORROW ALSO SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PW VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104 ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ONLY MIX OUT TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOMORROW IN THE 103 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THIS WEEKEND....A WEAK UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO THEN MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE FLOW
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL ALSO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AS WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS MOSTLY THE
SAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A DIFFERENT PATTERN
SHAPING UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE RETURN OF A RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A TROUGH
TO DROP INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RE-CENTER AND AMPLIFY ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE CANADIAN. THERE ARE QUESTIONS OF
HOW FAR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND ALSO THE BEST TIMING
FOR RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANY POTENTIAL FRONT WILL BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FORECASTING 850 TEMPS TO BE THE
HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR...RANGING FROM 22 TO 25 C. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SEE THE CENTURY
MARK. WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT IN NORTH
TEXAS.
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT
TYPE OF IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 101 75 99 75 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 100 72 100 72 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 72 100 72 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 73 99 73 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 77 / 0 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 99 74 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 72 98 72 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 98 75 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAD ANOTHER
MORNING OF MVFR ACROSS AUS/SAT/SSF...AND DECIDED TO GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AND BRING IT IN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING FROM 11-14Z IN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. LATEST SIMULATED WRF DOES NOT
HAVE THE CLOUDS IN FOR FRIDAY MORNING SO LATER SHIFTS SHOULD WATCH
CLOSELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY AROUND THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS WARMED UP
TEMPERATURES A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT READINGS ARE
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL BUMP UP
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO OVERDO ITS CONVECTION
FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT I-35 TERMINAL SITES
FROM 09Z TO 15Z THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE UP TODAY OVER PREVIOUS DAYS SINCE A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING FROM THE GREAT BASING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SMALL PATCH OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD INLAND ABOUT
TO I-35...THEN SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY MID- MORNING WITH DAYTIME
MIXING. A SIMILAR PATTERN OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
TO VERY ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A TUTT LOW
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
INCLUDED A 20 PCT POP FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO COVER THIS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS STRONGER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY(S) OF THE SUMMER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WEST OVER THE ROCKIES AS
A NEW TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS INDICATES
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
BRING SOME RAIN AUGUST 15-17TH...BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THAT...SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 99 75 98 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 73 100 72 98 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 73 100 72 99 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 98 73 97 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 101 77 98 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 74 97 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 98 72 97 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 99 73 98 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 98 75 97 / 10 - - 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 98 76 97 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 74 98 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32