Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1215 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2014.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVING INLAND INTO SOUTHERN CA AFFECTS OUR
REGION...A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
MONDAY...UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LIMITING STORM CHANCES TO
EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL RETURN OF STORM CHANCES
FROM EAST TO WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AFTER A QUIET START THIS MORNING...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...ONE MORE BUSY AFTERNOON OF TS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND TAKES
HOLD FROM MONDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE PARENT
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE REGION THE LAST
FEW DAYS IS NOW MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA. A WEAK VORT LOBE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SLOWLY ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER
INTO SOUTHWEST AZ. LATEST NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
30KT SOUTHERLY JET MAX AT 500MB MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...COMBINED WITH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEST MUCAPES...IN THE 500-750 J/KG
RANGE...WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS YUMA...LA PAZ...AND WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SINCE THEY WILL TEND TO BE FASTER MOVING
THEN THE STORMS WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
ENHANCING TS DOWNBURSTS. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A
SHARP REDUCTION IN TS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE VORT
LOBE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SE CA...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO BE THE GREATEST
ISSUE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
POSSIBLE...AND FLASH FLOODING/URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALONG
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL...THERE COULD ALSO BE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AS WET MICROBURSTS REACH THE SFC. TS ACTIVITY
OVER THIS REGION IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. ONE
LAST WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO
ARIZONA MONDAY BUT IT WEAKENS IN THE PROCESS. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THUS POPS FOR MONDAY TREND DOWN...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DECLINE OF STORM
CHANCES WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A MOIST ADVECTION TREND AND THUS AN
EAST TO WEST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...STOPPING SHORT OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPS AROUND NOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY STAY MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECT THE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AND MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TODAY AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING AND INTENSITY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST VCTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS...BEGINNING
AROUND 22Z. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND STORMS START APPROACHING
THE TERMINALS...WE WILL UPDATE TAFS AND ADD APPROPRIATE TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA......KIPL...AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z...AND HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF AFFECTING AREA TERMINALS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...AND VISIBILITY MAY BE BRIEFLY AND SHARPLY REDUCED
DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND OR BLOWING DUST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PULL OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DRY START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LONGER...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION....KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LESS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES TREND DOWN MONDAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT STORM CHANCES TO EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND THE VORT LOBE
THAT PRODUCED STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED
SKIES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CLOUDINESS CLOSER TO THE PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SE CA. THESE
CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE/JET MAX WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
TS ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ...WITH EVEN
BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS ACROSS SE CA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. GIVEN THE FACT THE
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE TS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA AND YUMA COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE
VORT LOBE...HAVE RAISED POPS WELL INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THAT REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SINCE THEY
WILL TEND TO BE FASTER MOVING THEN THE STORMS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCING TS DOWNBURSTS.
OTHER THAN THIS INCREASE IN POPS...INHERITED GRIDS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR ENSENADA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH OVER BAJA IS SPREADING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
ARIZONA SUCH THAT SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS TREND WILL
ENABLE BETTER SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
PROGGED CAPE VARIES CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW ROUGHLY 500-750 J/KG OF RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT SURPRISING SINCE MID LEVELS DONT
COOL MUCH. WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...PIMA COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE
ACTIVE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS TO HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY.
NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY.
YESTERDAY...THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WERE NOT VERY ACTIVE DUE TO STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYERS. TODAY MAY BE THE REVERSE. FOR ONE...THERE WILL BE LESS
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE.
ALSO...THERE IS ANOTHER VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL
FORCING. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE RESPONSIVE TO OUTFLOWS FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS FAR NORTHERN
BAJA AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AS A RESULT...THE HI RES MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING QUITE A BIT MORE
ACTIVE THAN EASTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY. FORECASTS REFLECT THIS AND IN FACT POPS WERE RAISED
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A
LITTLE BIT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MORE DCAPE WILL IMPROVE THE
CAPABILITY OF THE STORMS TO LAST LONGER AND PRODUCE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BOTH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. ONE
LAST WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO
ARIZONA MONDAY BUT IT WEAKENS IN THE PROCESS. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THUS POPS FOR MONDAY TREND DOWN...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DECLINE OF STORM
CHANCES WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A MOIST ADVECTION TREND AND THUS AN
EAST TO WEST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...STOPPING SHORT OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPS AROUND NOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY STAY MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECT THE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AND MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TODAY AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING AND INTENSITY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST VCTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS...BEGINNING
AROUND 22Z. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND STORMS START APPROACHING
THE TERMINALS...WE WILL UPDATE TAFS AND ADD APPROPRIATE TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA......KIPL...AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z...AND HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF AFFECTING AREA TERMINALS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...AND VISIBILITY MAY BE BRIEFLY AND SHARPLY REDUCED
DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND OR BLOWING DUST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PULL OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DRY START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LONGER...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION....KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
855 AM MST SUN AUG 3 2014
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LESS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES TREND DOWN MONDAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT STORM CHANCES TO EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND THE VORT LOBE
THAT PRODUCED STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED
SKIES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CLOUDINESS CLOSER TO THE PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SE CA. THESE
CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE/JET MAX WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
TS ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ...WITH EVEN
BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS ACROSS SE CA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. GIVEN THE FACT THE
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE TS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA AND YUMA COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE
VORT LOBE...HAVE RAISED POPS WELL INTO THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THAT REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SINCE THEY
WILL TEND TO BE FASTER MOVING THEN THE STORMS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCING TS DOWNBURSTS.
OTHER THAN THIS INCREASE IN POPS...INHERITED GRIDS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR ENSENADA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH OVER BAJA IS SPREADING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
ARIZONA SUCH THAT SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS TREND WILL
ENABLE BETTER SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
PROGGED CAPE VARIES CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW ROUGHLY 500-750 J/KG OF RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT SURPRISING SINCE MID LEVELS DONT
COOL MUCH. WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...PIMA COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE
ACTIVE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS TO HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY.
NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY.
YESTERDAY...THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WERE NOT VERY ACTIVE DUE TO STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYERS. TODAY MAY BE THE REVERSE. FOR ONE...THERE WILL BE LESS
CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE.
ALSO...THERE IS ANOTHER VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL
FORCING. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE RESPONSIVE TO OUTFLOWS FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS FAR NORTHERN
BAJA AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AS A RESULT...THE HI RES MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING QUITE A BIT MORE
ACTIVE THAN EASTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY. FORECASTS REFLECT THIS AND IN FACT POPS WERE RAISED
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A
LITTLE BIT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MORE DCAPE WILL IMPROVE THE
CAPABILITY OF THE STORMS TO LAST LONGER AND PRODUCE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BOTH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. ONE
LAST WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO
ARIZONA MONDAY BUT IT WEAKENS IN THE PROCESS. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THUS POPS FOR MONDAY TREND DOWN...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DECLINE OF STORM
CHANCES WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A MOIST ADVECTION TREND AND THUS AN
EAST TO WEST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...STOPPING SHORT OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SCATTERED CU DEVELOPS AROUND NOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY STAY MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECT THE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AND MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TODAY AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA......KIPL...AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z...AND HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AFFECTING
AREA TERMINALS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE
UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEARING
SKIES AND WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DRY START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LONGER...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
918 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HEIGHTEN
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE COAST SHOULD ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.
&&
.UPDATE...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SMOKE ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY TO THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR AEROSOL DRY MASS PRODUCTS ALL SHOW SMOKE
FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS MADE IT WEST TO THE COAST. THE SMOKE SHOULD
SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. STP
&&
.MARINE...9 AM...I DROPPED THE GALE FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THIS MORNING AND CONVERTED IT TO A SMALL CRAFT AS MODELS SHOWING
WINDS WELL BELOW GALE. WINDS OVER THE NORTERN OUTER WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG WITH GALE GUSTS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE
HAVE NOT BEEN SATELLITE OR MARINE OBSERVATIOSN TO VERIFY THIS WIND
FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND THE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
HAVE PRODUCED STEEP SEAS THAT ARE TRANSLATING INTO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SEAS AT BUOY 14 ARE STEEP 6 FT AT 7 SECONDS SO HOISTED
SCA FOR THIS AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH FRONT
DISSPATING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WEAKENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DEAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 510 AM PDT...
SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HEIGHTEN
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE COAST SHOULD ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.
DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
IS BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH OFF
OF THE WEST COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TODAY AND INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS TODAY. MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINAL
AND CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT SOME OF THE CONVECTION. THAT CHANGES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY
COULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH MAY ALLOW
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE BULK SHEAR
AND A GENERAL LIGHT OFFSHORE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN MAY PREVENT
THE STORMS FROM GETTING TOO STRONG. BUT IF THIS CHANGES, THEN THE
THREAT WILL CHANGE. THE CONDITIONS WON`T BE AS CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
BEYOND THAT, ZONAL FLOW STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THE INTERIOR CAN
EXPECT AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
COAST CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS ALONG BOTH THE REDWOOD AND
MENDOCINO COASTS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER
LAST NIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 5 OR 6 HUNDRED FEET WITH P6SM VSBYS.
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH
KCEC AND KACV BUT THEN LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE COASTAL STRATUS
EXPANDS ONCE AGAIN THIS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MKN
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT N WINDS
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
INTERACTS WITH THE INLAND THERMAL TROF. HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW END
GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR GUSTS. NO SHIP REPORTS OR SAT
WINDS ATTM BUT MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AS EARLIER FORECAST. GRADIENT SLACKENS OFF SLIGHTLY ABOUT
TUESDAY AS DISSIPATING FRONT MOVES BY TO THE NORTH WEAKENING THE
HIGH. GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AND MAY
NEED GALE AGAIN IN OUTER WATERS.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE
SOME LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE 2 FT 14-17 SECOND RANGE.
MKN
FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME OF THE INLAND
DISTRICTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH MAY ALLOW
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY WETTING RAINS. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE
SCATTERED THREAT OF THESE STORMS, ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ZONE 283 ON MONDAY. MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY IF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE THEM WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
CAZ004.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450-455-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ470.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
306 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH...BRINGING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
THE AREA. HANFORD RADAR IS ALREADY DETECTING RAIN SHOWERS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...AS A
SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL SURGE MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA.
IN FACT...BY 2 AM...BAKERSFIELD HAD PICKED UP A TRACE OF
RAIN...SETTING A NEW RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE DAY. IT HAD NEVER
RAINED IN BAKERSFIELD ON AUGUST 3RD ACCORDING TO THE RECORD
ARCHIVES.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY BEEN EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THERE WAS AT LEAST 1 STRIKE IN FAR EASTERN
KERN CO AROUND 2 AM. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AS MU CAPE VALUES INCREASE OVER NOT ONLY
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY
AS WELL.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MU CAPE VALUES PEAKING OVER THE
SIERRA CREST...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND 500 J/KG. STORMS THAT DO
FORM OVER THE CREST WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE VALLEY...WITH THE NAM INDICATING MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO
200 J/KG...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR STRIKES OVER THE VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO NORTHERN FRESNO
COUNTY BY 10 AM. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH REGARDS
TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONALLY...PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS...MAINLY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AND MOUNTAIN.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREAS IN KERN COUNTY
COULD EASILY SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO ONE-HALF INCH.
WITH RECENT FIRES/BURN SCARS IN MIND...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AND IS VALID FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ONE LAST INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA HAS LIKELY HIT THEIR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
AFTER MONDAY MORNING...THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND MONDAY INTO THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. BY FRIDAY...A FEW
VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY WARM TO THE CENTURY MARK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS UNTIL 06Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 3 2014... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO COUNTY AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK
AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 08-03 110:1946 80:1976 78:1901 55:1953
KFAT 08-04 110:1889 83:1976 82:1901 53:1956
KFAT 08-05 110:1895 83:1957 79:1998 51:1950
KBFL 08-03 112:1938 81:1953 81:1974 53:1912
KBFL 08-04 109:1901 85:1953 82:1961 53:1903
KBFL 08-05 110:1998 85:1957 80:1998 52:1899
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
MOISTURE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING
ALONG WESTWARD PROPAGATING WAVE. HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS ACTIVITY AND INDICATES A BREAK ARRIVING AFTER 9 AM. CELLS
QUICKLY REFIRE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER WAVE LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA AND ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. NEW MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO SLIDE THIS WAVE A BIT TO OUR WEST...RESULTING IN
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF OUR EASTERN MOST
UTAH ZONES. WITH EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING IN AND FORCING
FROM APPROACHING WAVE...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE ON THE RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH. FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. K INDEX VALUES ALSO
ECLIPSING 40...INDICATING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE AND COMMON
DURING FLASH FLOODS EVENTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UTAH BEGINNING AROUND MID AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE OVER THE SAN JUANS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY FILL IN AND LIFT NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM READINGS
YESTERDAY.
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PRESENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1+ INCH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENS...BOTH COMPONENTS
FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ADDED CONCERN
OF POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO
SEE. MODELS KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN NV...
BUT THE NAM/GFS SHOW AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF ITS
TRACK...BUT SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. BLENDED IN 25% OF THE 21Z SREF
TO BUMP UP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
40KT SPEED MAX AT 300 MB SLIDES OVERHEAD MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS WRN CO TO THE NE BY LATE MONDAY
EVENING. MAIN LOW STILL OVER NRN CA/NRN NV BY TUE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT AND POSSIBLY LIFTING ACROSS OUR
AREA TOWARD 12Z TUE. NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE FEATURES OR THEIR
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT
TUESDAY.
MONSOONAL FLOW GETS CUTOFF WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS SPLITS COLORADO WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY LOW POPS FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT WORKS ON LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY APPEARS IN STORE. THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AND
STORMS WILL NOT GENERATE AS MUCH RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT
AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PROFILE COULD TRIGGER A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS LATE FRIDAY...RIDGING ONCE AGAIN SETS
UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATE UPWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SOME STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. EXPECT FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFTER 19Z THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALL TERMINAL SITES WILL SEE AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BEING IMPACTED BETWEEN 19Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY 3 PM MDT...RESULTING IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UTAH BEGINNING AT 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF SLOT CANYONS AND AREAS NEAR OLD FIRE SCARS. ARCHES AND
CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARKS ARE BOTH INCLUDED IN THIS FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR UTZ022-025-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/JDC
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE BERTHA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION OTHER THAN POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE CONFIDENT FORECAST. COMBINATION OF HIGH DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND NOTING CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS /WHETHER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LOWER THAN THE OBSERVED DEWPOINT AT MAX
HEATING OF THE DAY/...WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURPRISINGLY THE HRRR DOES NOT FOLLOW THIS
TREND KEEPING DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS AND ADJACENT S-SHORELINES
INCLUDING CAPE ANN. RAP EXHIBITS A SIMILAR TREND WITH H975 RH
CONFINED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ONE DIFFERENCE AS TO THE FORECAST FOG TREND AND MONDAY MORNINGS
DENSE FOG IS THE FACT THAT THERE IS NO ANTECEDANT RAIN. CONDITIONS
TODAY WERE ALLOWED TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES WERE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER WITH REGARDS TO HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINES.
HAVE TRENDED WITH THE HRRR WITH REGARDS TO FOG. GONE AHEAD WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THOSE AREAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SEEING FOG /SOUTH- AND SOUTHEAST-SHORELINES OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG
WITH ADJACENT ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CAPE ANN/. BETTER TO BE PRO-
ACTIVE AND GIVE A HEADS UP AS TO THE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AS IT
MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
UPGRADE FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS SW NH/NW MA
TO THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
AS THE H5 TROUGH REMAINS W OF THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE DIURNAL PRECIP. LOWER PWATS MOVE
ACROSS...AROUND 1 INCH...SO THIS WILL INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACTIVITY. ALSO NOTING LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN H85 AND H3
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION /30-40 PERCENT/...SO WILL UNDERCUT ANY
DEEP LAYER CONVECTION. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS TRY TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM NE AND CENTRAL MA TO THE CT VALLEY...THOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WILL STILL SEE DEWPTS IN THE 60S...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...SO
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT IN STORE WITH STAGNANT AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MELT AWAY IN THE EVENING...THOUGH NOTING
INCREASING MID LAYER RH VALUES ACROSS S NH/N AND W MA OVERNIGHT.
MIGHT SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS LINGER THERE AS H5 TROUGH STARTS TO
SLIDE E AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LOWER RISK OF
SHOWERS. WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH THE URBAN
CENTERS MIGHT STAY CLOSE TO 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATES EAST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN WAS DEPICTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HURRICANE BERTHA WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA MOVES NORTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN CURVES OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
REGION FALLS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
INTERESTING BLEND OF VALUES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF: WINDS AT 500 MB
30-35 KNOTS...WINDS AT 850 MB 10-15 KNOTS...THETA-E RIDGE RI AND SE
MASS...MODEL SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG...TOTALS 49-51...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.25-6.5C/KM. PRECIP WATER VALUES 1-1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. WHAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TROUBLE WITH IS THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN. BOTH SHOW THE FRONT
MOVING TO THE SOUTH COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN JUMPING BACKWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AGAIN DURING THE DAY. DIFFICULT TO READ
THE MODEL OUTPUT LITERALLY. RATHER...WILL EXPECT A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION SUPPLYING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER JET SUPPLYING
HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
TAP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR AUGUST...BUT COULD GENERATE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.
ALSO OF CONCERN IS BERTHA WHICH PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WITH A WSW-ENE FLOW OVER THE OCEAN WOULD SUGGEST THE
STORM IS NOT A DIRECT THREAT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL RH
FIELDS AT 925/850/700 MB SHOW BERTHA/S MOISTURE SHIELD REMAINING
OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS THREAT SEEMS LOW.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TOTALS 50-54 MOST AREAS.
MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH 800 MB WITH A MOIST LAYER FOUND ABOVE
850 MB. EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS WITH CHANCE POPS FOR A
THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY... RIDGE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. TEMPS
AT 850 MB CLIMB HIGHER EACH DAY...FROM AROUND 12C FRIDAY TO AROUND
15C MONDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
2Z UPDATE...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE S/SE SHORELINES AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.
DETERIORATING AROUND 4-7Z...IMPROVING BY 11Z. LIGHT WINDS...VRB
IN MOST PLACES. VFR ELSEWHERE...BUT CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THOUGH MOST
OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANY ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z...OTHERWISE
VFR. AFTER 04Z-05Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP AGAIN WITH
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT EARLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR IN FOG. VFR DURING THE DAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE CONTINUED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE BOTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE BERTHA WILL BEGIN IN ENCROACH THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING AROUND 5 FT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE SWELLS MAY REACH RI AND BI SOUNDS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS. A 5-6 FOOT SOUTH SWELL MAY LINGER ON OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
FROM BERTHA SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR WATERS. AREAS OF FOG MAY
BRING POOR VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
LINGERING CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY BEFORE RE-CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, WELL EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PA
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. IT HAS CAUSED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PA SO FAR. SCT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WITH THIS FEATURE. RIGHT NOW THE HRRR, RAP AND THE HIRES 18Z NAM
ARE TARGETING THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVER MARYLAND
AND SOUTHERN PA TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD AND
CHESTER/BERKS COUNTIES PA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60D
SOUTH. MET/MAV MOS TEMPS WERE USED FOR THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY BY MON MORNING AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...A BETTER WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG EARLY...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS WITH MOSTLY MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
WRLY/NWRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK, PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU THE CWA. ALSO, DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEATWAVES TO OCCUR
ACROSS OUR REGION UNDER THIS SETUP. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED IN THE
PERIOD IS TUESDAY, BUT MAX TEMPS IN THE MU 80S (PERHAPS REACHING
90F IN A FEW SPOTS) AND MIN TEMPS IN THE MU 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD ONLY BE AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE STALLED OFFSHORE BOUNDARY AS
IT TRACKS EAST OF THE OUTERBANKS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REACHING THE DELMARVA.
BERTHA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO RE-CURVE TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A TRACK THAT IS WELL
EAST OF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY YIELD ISO TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUESDAY.
CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA, WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ALSO IN THE POCONOS,
WHERE CONVECTION COULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. LATEST TREND IN THE FCST WAS TO
RAISE POPS A BIT TO 40-50 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION/TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, ULVL JET
STREAK AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED OVER THE CWA FOR
A PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER LATE IN THE
WEEK. ISO SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NERN PA/NRN NJ THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT PROVIDES SOME
INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, LOW-TOPPED
AND ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE LOW.
MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THIS
WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOPRES ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. ATTM...KEPT THE FCST
NEXT WEEKEND DRY, BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER
NORTHWARD, PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SRN TIER.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
RATHER POOR FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
NORTH/WEST. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACROSS
KMIV/KACY. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO SOME
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SHORTLY. SAT ALSO SHOWS THIN SPOTS
DEVELOPING IN THE OVC.
THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE EVENING...AND THEN FOLLOWED THE GFS LAMP AND
HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD FOR THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KMIV/KACY.
THE FOG MAY NOT GET AS INTENSE...IF MORE LOW CIGS ROLL IN TONIGHT.
MONDAY...AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR EXPECTED WITH WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BY NOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LOW CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF PHILA TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. MAINLY VFR BUT
LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. ATTM, EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH HIPRES TRYING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER SHOWERY/FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS AS A FRONT AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL EDGE EASTWARD
TONIGHT BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY NE OR E WILL SWITCH MORE WRLY/NWRLY ON MONDAY. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT. OVER DEL BAY...SE WINDS
WILL BECOME NW MONDAY WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOWER VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WELL EAST OF THE AREA, BUT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE WAVES OF
3-4 FT. IF THE TRACK OF BERTHA SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOCALLY
HIGHER WAVES MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA. LONG-PERIOD SWELLS OF 10-13
S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCED WAVE ACTION ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SWELLS COULD BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
948 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE GULF
COAST STILL LOOKS TO BE THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS THAN EARLIER. THE MAINLY AND
EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE HRRR STILL
SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF TEND
TO KEEP ANY PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY,
HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
AVIATION...
DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING THREAT FOR CLOUDS AND TSRA AFT 14-16Z WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY NEAR KPBI SO PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN THEIR TAF FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V BECMG SW AT 5-10 KT AFT
14Z ALL SITES.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH COLLIER COUNTY`S COASTLINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA PREVAILS. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ABUNDANT AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WIND FLOW WILL THEN BECOME WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM THAT
POINT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BOTH COASTS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND
INTERACT ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
MARINE...
BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5-15 KTS THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WEAKER WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK BEFORE A
GENERAL SSE TO S FLOW IS PREVALENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 90 / 40 60 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 78 92 / 40 50 20 40
MIAMI 78 92 78 91 / 40 50 20 40
NAPLES 77 90 77 90 / 60 50 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
848 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014
...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER ACROSS NE FL/SE GA ON TUESDAY...
.UPDATE...
WEAK LOW/TROF JUST EAST OF THE NE FL COAST WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY E/NE TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY LATER ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BACK THE CURRENT NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY PULL DOWN A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO SE GA AND NORTH FL ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TONIGHT...COASTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM JAX NORTHWARD WILL SPIN DOWN AND LINGER OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND
INCREASES SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MORNING AROUND 5 MPH...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY CLOSER TO
CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. ON TUESDAY...RETURN TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND MUCH MORE INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH MIDDLE 90S WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS INLD SE GA/SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLD NE FL WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TRACK OFF TOWARDS THE E/SE
AND A FEW MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR VFR AT MOST TIMES THIS EVENING...BUT A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT SSI.
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR STRATUS CEILINGS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED IN SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR SCT008 TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST IFR
CEILINGS JUST YET.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW/TROF JUST EAST OF JACKSONVILLE WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARDS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE.
COMBINED SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH WIND WAVE PORTION WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ON TUESDAY DUE TO SOME SWELL PUSHING INTO THE WATERS FROM
BERTHA.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS SOME OF
THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM BERTHA IMPACT THE COAST. BREAKER
REPORTS CONTINUE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 94 73 95 / 30 10 20 20
SSI 75 89 76 92 / 50 20 20 30
JAX 71 92 74 94 / 30 20 20 30
SGJ 74 90 75 92 / 30 30 20 30
GNV 71 92 72 93 / 10 40 30 40
OCF 73 93 73 93 / 30 50 30 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/SHULER/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.NEAR TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON)
THE HEAVY LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT MOVED ASHORE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE
STABLE EAST COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION EARLIER. FARTHER INLAND...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP WHERE A BETTER SOURCE OF INSTABILITY EXISTS
(TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEG RANGE).
THE LATEST HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THESE TRENDS AND HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE EARLIER SUGGESTED EAST COAST ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWING MOSTLY STRATIFIED PRECIP FOR THE
SE FL COAST (OR LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS
ALONG THE EAST COAST) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
LAKE REGION INCLUDING PALM BEACH COUNTY COULD OBSERVE SOME
HEAVIER AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT FROM CYCLE
TO CYCLE AND INDICATES THE WET PATTERN PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AN ASCAT PASS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED TS BERTHA CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE LATEST ADVISORY INDICATES BERTHA TURNING NORTHWARD
AND REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT PASSES
(SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA). THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SFC TROUGH OVERHEAD THAT IS IMPACTING THE
LOCAL WEATHER SLOWLY LIFTING NWD INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED E-W
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE STRAITS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (MODEL PWAT VALUES
RANGING FROM 2- 2.3" MONDAY-TUESDAY EVENING) COULD TRANSLATE TO A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY AND
THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. THE LATEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
PROJECTION INDICATES 1.5 TO 2.5" WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS. MUCH HIGHER
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS WHERE ANY ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SETTING UP AND FAVORING THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO TODAY...STABILITY COULD PLAY A ROLE HERE AND
END UP REDUCING THE OVERALL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS...IF THE
OVERCAST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND)...
THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RETURN OF A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE
TRANSITION DAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN ANOTHER WET AFTERNOON WITH A
SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO FOCUS THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ENCOUNTERING A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN
WHICH SHOULD BE COVERED WELL WITH VCSH. LATEST HRRR KEEPS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR POSSIBLY AFFECTING KAPF. LEFT VCTS MENTION
THERE UNTIL 01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MARINE AREAS AS IT TURNS NORTH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER
CONDITIONS EACH DAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 77 92 / 50 70 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 80 92 / 50 70 40 50
MIAMI 77 90 79 91 / 50 70 40 50
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 30 50 60 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10/CD
REST OF DISCUSSION....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SE FLORIDA COAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST HRRR CYCLE SHOWED THIS
COASTAL ACTIVITY SHIFTING WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SW.
PROVIDED THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...IT
MAY TAKE LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. THIS COULD DELAY THIS COASTAL ACTIVITY FROM
SHIFTING WESTWARD WELL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE HRRR
ENDS UP VERIFYING, LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER
TODAY OVER THE EAST COAST AND METRO AREAS CONSIDERING THE RECENT
ACTIVITY AND THE SATURATED GROUNDS. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE DAY. PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...PREVAILED
MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM KFLL NORTHWARD
WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM KOPF SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED WITH 2"+ PWATS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. FOR SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH THIS SURFACE LOW
TODAY. MAY NEED TO BE WARY OF VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS AND STORM
COLLISIONS/MERGERS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LEADING TO POSSIBLE WATER
PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HRRR AND HI RES MODELS INDICATE
STORMS FIRST EITHER MOVE ONSHORE OR DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...THEN CRAWL TO THE INTERIOR LATE DAY. THE WEAK LOW THEN
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MERGES WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN DRAPED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE 2"+ PWATS REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
MEAN RH IN SOME OF THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH SHOWS A BIT OF A
DRYING TREND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A MORNING GULF COAST IS EXPECTED
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST LATER
IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS/TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
UPPER RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WORK WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WEDNESDAY MAY BE
A WETTER DAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE SUGGESTED.
MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MARINE AREAS AS IT TURNS NORTH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM 5 KTS TO 15
KTS...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 79 90 77 / 80 30 70 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 91 80 / 80 30 70 40
MIAMI 90 78 90 79 / 80 30 70 40
NAPLES 92 77 88 77 / 60 30 50 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
813 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE DAY. PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...PREVAILED
MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM KFLL NORTHWARD
WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM KOPF SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED WITH 2"+ PWATS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. FOR SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH THIS SURFACE LOW
TODAY. MAY NEED TO BE WARY OF VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS AND STORM
COLLISIONS/MERGERS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LEADING TO POSSIBLE WATER
PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HRRR AND HI RES MODELS INDICATE
STORMS FIRST EITHER MOVE ONSHORE OR DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...THEN CRAWL TO THE INTERIOR LATE DAY. THE WEAK LOW THEN
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MERGES WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN DRAPED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE 2"+ PWATS REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
MEAN RH IN SOME OF THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH SHOWS A BIT OF A
DRYING TREND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A MORNING GULF COAST IS EXPECTED
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST LATER
IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS/TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
UPPER RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WORK WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WEDNESDAY MAY BE
A WETTER DAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE SUGGESTED.
MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MARINE AREAS AS IT TURNS NORTH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM 5 KTS TO 15
KTS...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 79 90 77 / 70 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 91 80 / 70 30 40 40
MIAMI 90 78 90 79 / 70 30 40 40
NAPLES 92 77 88 77 / 60 30 60 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS RATHER UNDEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING
BETWEEN THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...AND A WEAK IMPULSE
APPROACHING FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
MOIST REGION WIDE AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE WITH PW VALUES HOLDING IN
THE VICINITY OF 2". THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS APPROACHING
IMPULSE IS SEEN AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FL STRAITS...AND IS PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL NWP GUIDANCE
MEMBERS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE PENINSULA
TODAY AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS A FAIRLY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY TEND TO DISSIPATE WITH INLAND
PENETRATION. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE IN FAR EASTERN
POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD BE JUST
ABOUT IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY...
UNFORTUNATELY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ONE THAT SUPPORTS A VERY
SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY DETAILED FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND
LITTLE TO NO DRY AIR LAYERS FOR THE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO FIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE WEAK LOW FEATURE TRAVERSING THE AREA TODAY WILL ADD A
BROAD LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO GIVE US ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. DO FEEL...MUCH OF THE MORNING
WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE...HOWEVER ONCE WE GET SOME DECENT SURFACE
HEATING...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET THE STORMS BUBBLING UP.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BROAD LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO GET VERY DETAILED WITH THE TIMING OF
STORMS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (> 60%) DO APPEAR
TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCES
FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM MANATEE COUNTY
NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST UNCERTAINLY STILL SUGGESTS KEEPING A CHANCE
POP FOR THESE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL...AND THE DAY SHIFT CAN SEE HOW
THINGS ARE EVOLVING LATER THIS MORNING AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS...AND COMBINED WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SOME LOCALLY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AREAS
THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE RUNOFF AS WELL IN CASE THESE SAME AREA FIND THEMSELVES
UNDER SLOW MOVING STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY...
STARTING OUT THE WORK WEEK...WE WILL FIND THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO A MORE UNIFORM
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE WEST WIND AND MOIST PROFILE SUGGEST A CHANCE
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND MOVING TOWARD SHORE.
A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN TERMS OF CLIMO WOULD SHIFT THE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON IN A MORE DEFINED MANNER. WILL
FOLLOW THIS APPROACH FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS AND SHOW SHOWERS
SHIFTING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN WILL ARRIVE FOR
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. READ MORE ABOUT THIS PATTERN
CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. ENJOY THE SECOND HALF OF
YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THROUGH WED...AN UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA TO THE
CARRIBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL AND
THE COASTAL WATERS LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MOVES BERTHA FROM EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TO WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN GULF TRACKS INTO SOUTH
FL. THE AREA CONTINUES IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ISOLATED
TO HIGH END...50 POP...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL BE RELAXED WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.
FOR THU INTO SAT...THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS UP
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE CUBAN
RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF AND FL. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL FL WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WITH A GRADIENT LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. NORTH OF THE THE AXIS THE
FLOW WILL BE SW TO WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES AND WARMS SLIGHTLY.
BUT STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LOW TO MID...30 TO 40
POPS...SCATTERED RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE
SWATH OF BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH
SUNRISE TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES TO SEE A STORM AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT
KFMY/KRSW/KPGD AND KLAL. THE TERMINALS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA MAY
STILL SEE A STORM...HOWEVER STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS INSIDE THE
I-75 CORRIDOR.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
TAKE UP POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTION
MAY BE A BIT ERRATIC THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY FORM OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 77 91 78 / 50 40 40 40
FMY 92 77 91 76 / 70 40 50 40
GIF 93 77 92 76 / 60 40 60 30
SRQ 91 78 90 77 / 40 40 40 40
BKV 93 73 92 73 / 50 40 40 30
SPG 91 80 91 80 / 40 40 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED WITH 2"+ PWATS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. FOR SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH THIS SURFACE LOW
TODAY. MAY NEED TO BE WARY OF VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS AND STORM
COLLISIONS/MERGERS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LEADING TO POSSIBLE WATER
PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HRRR AND HI RES MODELS INDICATE
STORMS FIRST EITHER MOVE ONSHORE OR DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...THEN CRAWL TO THE INTERIOR LATE DAY. THE WEAK LOW THEN
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MERGES WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN DRAPED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE 2"+ PWATS REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
MEAN RH IN SOME OF THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH SHOWS A BIT OF A
DRYING TREND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A MORNING GULF COAST IS EXPECTED
WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST LATER
IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS/TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
UPPER RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WORK WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WEDNESDAY MAY BE
A WETTER DAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE SUGGESTED.
&&
.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MARINE AREAS AS IT TURNS NORTH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM 5 KTS TO 15
KTS...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 79 90 77 / 70 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 91 80 / 70 30 40 40
MIAMI 88 78 90 79 / 70 30 40 40
NAPLES 90 77 88 77 / 60 30 60 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PLUS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED THE EAST PART OF THE AREA
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT
INDICATE ADDITION SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME FOG
BUT THE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES LITTLE FOG. WE FORECASTED PATCHY FOG.
WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...FINALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL THEN FLATTEN OUT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WITH THIS PATTERN
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY. THE MAIN UPPER
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE
TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TUESDAY...AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S WEDNESDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN UPPER PATTER REMAINS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ALIGN WITH THE STALLED
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT FORM WEST ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT THAT CHANCE POPS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
EAST. PWATS BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GFS BEGINS TO SHOW A SURFACE
WEDGE FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR OR LOWER IN FOG
AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING ALONG WITH SOME MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERN OF
THE PERIOD REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS.
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 08Z...WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS. LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT AGS/OGB
AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL HANDLE THOSE WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN
UPCOMING ISSUANCES. FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
SUNRISE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH RETURNING CHANCES FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN BETTER
CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLED OVERHEAD.
AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL LIKEWISE SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PLENTY SUNSHINE IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WILL HELP TO QUICKLY STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT BY MID/LATE MORNING.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW 60S DEWPOINTS TODAY AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD COULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS MID DAY.
A MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH STILL WEAK. DESPITE THESE MORE FAVORABLE
VARIABLES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF ANY REAL GOOD SURFACE FOCUS TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP APPEARING TO BE ACROSS WISCONSIN. NONETHELESS...AT
LEAST ISOLATED BRIEF POP UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE TODAY.
SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ONCE AGAIN BETTER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH ANY STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY WINDS STILL
CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DID INCREASE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AS
LOW/MID 80S WITH EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 80S DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY TODAY.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS TONIGHT AS WHATEVER DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING. FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
CWA BACK TOWARDS IOWA AND MISSOURI WHERE INCREASING LLJ AND
SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE...WITH A SEPARATE AREA OF
BETTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARING TO BE WELL NORTH OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT.
AS THIS COLD FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY...SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
AS THESE FEATURES DRAW CLOSER TO THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DID INCREASE POPS OVER THIS AREA TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS AND BROUGHT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REMAINING CWA BY THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WHILE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE OVERHEAD
COULD PROVIDE SOME OUTSIDE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT. NOT CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME...AS BEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN TIED CLOSER TO THE LOW/TROUGH AND BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST DURING MOST OF THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THROUGH. INCREASING MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS CONVECTION. WEAK
AND UNFAVORABLE DIRECTED LLJ AND LOWER INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT STRENGTH...BUT COULD STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS STILL DEVELOPING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA.
* WIND SHIFT TO EAST POSSIBLE WITH LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...THOUGH HOW FAR INLAND IT
MOVES IS UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY EAST
OR ORD/MDW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP WIND
SHIFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT EXCEPT AT GYY.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA RETURNS TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH LITTLE/NO CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK WINDS AND
LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE ARE THE ONLY LIMITS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME TSRA...AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY NORTH TOWARD WI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTION AT ORD AND ADDED SAME AT
RFD WHERE POTENTIAL...WHILE STILL LOW...WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. IF DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR
HOWEVER...TSRA WILL LIKELY SPREAD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR LAKE
BREEZE IF IT DEVELOPS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA BUT MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
231 AM CDT
A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SURFACE
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. A WEAK LOW MOVING FROM
NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TRAIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FOR A TIME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL THEN
TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Another pleasant summer day is on tap across central Illinois
today, as 1020mb high centered over the region remains in control
of the weather. A short-wave trough currently evident on 07z/2am
water vapor imagery over southwest Iowa will track southeastward,
but will remain W/SW of the KILX CWA. Small cluster of showers/storms
associated with this feature will drop into northern Missouri over
the next few hours, then will gradually dissipate later this
morning as it pushes toward the ridge axis. Am therefore expecting
mostly sunny and dry conditions today with highs in the middle
80s.
A series of upper-level waves is expected to reinforce the mean
trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes over the next
couple of days, with the first wave pushing a cold front southward
toward central Illinois by late Monday. Models in relatively good
agreement that boundary will sag into the northern KILX CWA by 12z
Tue accompanied by scattered showers/thunder. Models have trended
slightly faster with the approach of the front, with both the NAM
and GFS now bringing precip into the W/NW as early as Monday
afternoon. Have therefore added low chance PoPs from the Peoria
area northward late in the day. Better rain chances arrive Monday
night into Tuesday as front approaches and gradually stalls across
the area.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
Main forecast concern in the extended is how far south front will
get pushed as additional short-wave energy deepens the Great Lakes
trough later in the week. Both the 12z Aug 2 and 00z Aug 3 runs of
the GFS featured a prominent surface high building southward into
the Great Lakes, pushing the cold front south of the Ohio River by
Thursday. This solution would bring an end to the rain chances as
a slightly cooler/drier airmass arrives during the Thursday
through Saturday time frame. Meanwhile the 12z ECMWF offered a
much different solution showing a weaker high which subsequently
kept the boundary further north across central Illinois. 00z run
of the ECMWF has changed its tune completely and now looks a lot
more like the GFS. As a result, have begun to trim PoPs from north
to south later in the week as confidence is growing that front
will drop south of the area by Thursday. At this time, will
maintain low chance PoPs for both Thursday/Friday, but these will
likely be removed completely with later forecasts as better model
consistency is achieved.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
Forecast concern focused on potential for light fog the rest of
tonight. Moisture levels a bit higher than last night, with dew
points expected to remain at or above 60 degrees over most of the
area. Latest HRRR guidance indicates the best shot for lower
visibilities in fog would be near KSPI, and this area also was
affected earlier Saturday morning. Will hit that area a little
harder than the other TAF sites with a TEMPO group of around 1SM,
with 2-3SM elsewhere. Beyond that, VFR conditions to prevail. Any
ceilings that form later Sunday afternoon and evening will likely
be at or above 6000 feet.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
156 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LIMITED THE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MINIMAL WIND FOR THE
CWFA. A LAKE BREEZE WAS TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE SHORELINE...AND
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...LAND SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PLEASANT...WITH DEW
POINTS HOVERING AROUND 60 AND PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 1". GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS AFTN WILL REMAIN DRY...AND LATEST LOCAL
ARW8KM HAS INDICATED EVEN LESS CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE SFC
RIDGE.
SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD THRU THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SUNDAY THROUGH MON NGT...
A MID-LVL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STEADILY SLIDE
EAST AND SHUD ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUN.
THE SFC WAVE WILL BE DRIFTING EAST...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. A CHANNEL OF INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE
WILL LAYOUT FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWFA INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COMBINATION OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE AND INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...ALL POINTS
TOWARDS SOME PRECIP/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUN MORNING THRU AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WAVE WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT ARRIVES AND THE LACK OF FORCING SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL.
MID-LVL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHUD
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MON.
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD CONTINUE THE LOW POPS SUN NGT THRU MON NGT.
HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA THROUGH MON.
MON EVE THE LOCAL ARW8KM IS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE
ARRIVING LATE MON EVE...THUS HAVE NUDGED POPS UP FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
TEMPS BOTH SUN/MON WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONAL...IN THE LOW 80S.
HUMIDITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S...NEARING THE MID/UPR 60S MON NGT.
TUESDAY...MON NGT A BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST...WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THRU TUE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS THIS FEATURE BEING
FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL CWFA TUE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A COOLER
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN CWFA
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TUE...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE CHC POPS.
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OVERHEAD TUE EVE...WITH BROAD SFC RIDGE PROGGED
IT IS POSSIBLE DRY CONDS COULD DEVELOP TUE NGT. UNFORTUNATELY WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG PUSH TO MOVE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT-RANGE
TUE EVE...FEEL HOLDING ONTO LOW CHC POPS AT THIS TIME LOOKS
APPROPRIATE.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING...ALLOWING THE BLOCKED FLOW
OVER THE CONUS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FLUID. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL START TO FLATTEN WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SEMI-ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT GFS/EC SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WEAK
MID-LVL RIDGING WILL PUSH OVERHEAD WED/THUR WITH SFC RIDGE...AND
COULD PRODUCE A FEW DRY PERIODS NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THUR THOUGH
GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIFFER WITH ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE NEAR SFC FIELDS. LONGWAVE PATTERN STILL IS SUGGESTIVE
OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND COULD HELP TO KEEP
THE GREAT LAKES IN A SEMI-FLAT FLOW TRENDING NORTHWEST.
TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK BELOW SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT SHUD THEN RETURN TO THE LOW 80S. THEN AS NOTED
EARLIER...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
GREATEST POSSIBILITY BEING THE FAR WEST/SOUTH CWFA AS A PARKED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENN VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA.
* WIND SHIFT TO EAST POSSIBLE WITH LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...THOUGH HOW FAR INLAND IT
MOVES IS UNCERTAIN. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY EAST
OR ORD/MDW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP WIND
SHIFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT EXCEPT AT GYY.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA RETURNS TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH LITTLE/NO CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK WINDS AND
LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE ARE THE ONLY LIMITS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME TSRA...AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY NORTH TOWARD WI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTION AT ORD AND ADDED SAME AT
RFD WHERE POTENTIAL...WHILE STILL LOW...WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. IF DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR
HOWEVER...TSRA WILL LIKELY SPREAD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR LAKE
BREEZE IF IT DEVELOPS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA BUT MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE LAKE FOR THE COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL GLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN 15 KT OR
LESS. AS THESE WEAK SYSTEMS PASS TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO APPROACH THE AREA. A FEW WEAK SURFACE LOWS MAY PASS BY
WELL TO THE SOUTH MAINTAINING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 837 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
High pressure axis extending southwest from lower Michigan into
northern Missouri early this evening. Diurnal cumulus has faded
and we may see a few high clouds move in overnight, but mostly
clear skies to prevail. Temperatures still on track to fall into
the upper 50s and lower 60s overnight. Sent an update earlier to
adjust the sky grids, but no changes needed to the worded
forecasts.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
Forecast concern focused on potential for light fog the rest of
tonight. Moisture levels a bit higher than last night, with dew
points expected to remain at or above 60 degrees over most of the
area. Latest HRRR guidance indicates the best shot for lower
visibilities in fog would be near KSPI, and this area also was
affected earlier Saturday morning. Will hit that area a little
harder than the other TAF sites with a TEMPO group of around 1SM,
with 2-3SM elsewhere. Beyond that, VFR conditions to prevail. Any
ceilings that form later Sunday afternoon and evening will likely
be at or above 6000 feet.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
Models in general agreement with overall evolution of upper trough
over the Great Lakes and the Midwest gradually beginning to shift
east of the region by late next week. However, individual wave
timing and strength have a significant bearing on the forecast and
leads to increased uncertainty.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
Cumulus are suppressed under high pressure this afternoon though
boundary layer moisture remains in place with dew points similar
to what was in place in dry areas at this time yesterday. The
combination of the trapped low-level moisture, clear skies, and
light winds will likely lead to some patchy fog again late tonight.
12z NAM moves some precip into northern forecast area Sunday and
even more so on Monday. Although there will be waves rotating
through the long wave trough over eastern Canada, question is how
much moisture will interact with the energy. Stability remains
relatively limited per forecast soundings with warming mid-levels
and slowly building 500mb heights. There is also not a clear
indication of surface boundaries to focus convergence. Wouldn`t
completely rule out convection at some point Sunday and/or Monday
afternoon, but coverage should remain isolated and will leave PoPs
below slight chance category for now.
LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday
Heights begin to fall again Monday Night and Tuesday as final vort
max rotates around eastern trough and pushes its surface
reflection in the form of a cold front. The front should provide a
focus for the development of thunderstorms. Deep moisture should
remain limited as the Gulf remains cutoff. Evapotranspiration
should provide enough for scattered storms, but widespread precip
will likely need to wait until southerly moisture advection sets
up Wednesday Night and Thursday.
Big model differences focus on how far south the cold front can
push before the flow weakens and moisture becomes available. GFS
is strongest with the push behind the front with overrunning
precip behind the front clearing central and southeast Illinois
Thursday and Thursday Night. The ECMWF is much weaker with the
upper energy and stalls the front over the southern half of
Illinois from Tuesday through Friday bringing periodic chances
for MCS development along and north of the front. The 12z ECMWF
will be favored as it is more consistent with the 00z suite. Will
therefore keep more clouds and PoPs in place across the area than
would be suggested by the GFS with rain chances persisting through
the weak with the axis of the higher QPF slowly shifting south
with time. It is likely that much more detail as to timing and
track can be added as the period approaches.
Model temperatures also vary significantly given the differences
in frontal position. The GFS being further south with the cold
front is 2-4C colder than the ECMWF at 850 mb through the end of
the week. Will go closer to the smaller diurnal range and overall
warmer solution of the ECMWF.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DES MOINES IA
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A FEW TWEAKS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY DUE TO PRECIP
TRENDS. RAP SEEMS TO DEPICT SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND ELEVATED KINEMATICALLY DRIVEN MN
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CAP IS
ERODING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK SO DO NOT MUCH SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL. HI RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS WELL SO HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT SLIGHTS/ISOLATED WORDING. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OUTSIDE OF
LOWERING E CENTRAL A TOUCH WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS LINGERED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS AN
EXTENSION OF COLORADO LOW PRESSURE HAS REACHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND HAS HELPED VEER THE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. UPPER PV ANOMALY IS PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY
WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIGHTLY LAGGING. THE OVERALL RESULT IS
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA WITH
MORE SPORADIC DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF THIS REGION. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURRING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING AN
ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 25 KTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
FORECAST CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD BEFORE MID WEEK SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS ROCKIES. WITH
GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME AS
SEVERAL WAVES PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO PULL WAVE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR
MO/IA BORDER. IN ADDITION...GIVEN BEST FORCING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HAVE PULLED POPS FURTHER SOUTH. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE ALSO IN THIS AREA...AND MAY BE TOO
LOW ON POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA. AS WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. ANTICIPATE
PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. AGAIN...LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION THOUGH BEST INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE EAST AND
NORTH AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH
LACKING SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO IOWA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS SOUTH. MAIN SYSTEM
FOR EXTENDED WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS MUCH
STRONGER WAVE PUSHES SOUTH INTO IOWA. MODELS HAVE AGAIN COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY...RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
IMPACT HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST PRECIPITATION FROM SYSTEM GETS.
ATTM...HAVE KEPT POPS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CWA...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
BE SCALED IF SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN ROCKIES RIDGE...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEEKS END...BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH BOUNDARY
INTO IOWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AGAIN HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATER PERIOD
PRECIPITATION AS MODELS AGAIN DO NOT HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION WITH GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTLOOK FOR
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SO MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED DUE TO
LITTLE PREDICTABILITY. MAIN CONCERN MAY BE VSBY TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS DID NOT OCCUR LAST NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN A FEW DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN AND
PATCHY MORNING RAINS SO SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOT
GONE ALL IN YET...BUT DID MENTION MVFR/VFR VSBYS FOR A START.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1102 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A FEW TWEAKS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY DUE TO PRECIP
TRENDS. RAP SEEMS TO DEPICT SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND ELEVATED KINEMATICALLY DRIVEN MN
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CAP IS
ERODING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK SO DO NOT MUCH SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL. HI RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS WELL SO HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT SLIGHTS/ISOLATED WORDING. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OUTSIDE OF
LOWERING E CENTRAL A TOUCH WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS LINGERED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS AN
EXTENSION OF COLORADO LOW PRESSURE HAS REACHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND HAS HELPED VEER THE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. UPPER PV ANOMALY IS PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY
WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIGHTLY LAGGING. THE OVERALL RESULT IS
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA WITH
MORE SPORADIC DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF THIS REGION. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURRING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING AN
ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 25 KTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
FORECAST CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD BEFORE MID WEEK SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS ROCKIES. WITH
GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME AS
SEVERAL WAVES PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO PULL WAVE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR
MO/IA BORDER. IN ADDITION...GIVEN BEST FORCING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HAVE PULLED POPS FURTHER SOUTH. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE ALSO IN THIS AREA...AND MAY BE TOO
LOW ON POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA. AS WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. ANTICIPATE
PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. AGAIN...LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION THOUGH BEST INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE EAST AND
NORTH AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH
LACKING SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO IOWA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS SOUTH. MAIN SYSTEM
FOR EXTENDED WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS MUCH
STRONGER WAVE PUSHES SOUTH INTO IOWA. MODELS HAVE AGAIN COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY...RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
IMPACT HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST PRECIPITATION FROM SYSTEM GETS.
ATTM...HAVE KEPT POPS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CWA...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
BE SCALED IF SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN ROCKIES RIDGE...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEEKS END...BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH BOUNDARY
INTO IOWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AGAIN HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF LATER PERIOD
PRECIPITATION AS MODELS AGAIN DO NOT HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION WITH GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. BEST POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR KOTM THEN
KALO AND KMCW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE VFR WILL PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
Cirrus was slowly overspreading the western sections of Kansas from
the mean height ridge moving eastward from the Rockies into the High
Plains. A weak surface pressure/850 mb height gradient enveloped the
Central Plains. Relative low pressure over the eastern Colorado
resulted in a northward oriented pressure gradient gradient across
western Kansas resulting in generally south winds at most locations
with little downslope. Temperatures warmed to around 90 degrees
across in most locations as dew points mixed down to the upper 40s
from Scott City to Hugoton. Hays, which is closer to the warmer air
at 850 mb warmed into the upper 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The temperature trend and dew points to a lesser degree seemed to
have followed the consensus of the short term models blend fairly
well this afternoon. This trend will continue to be followed into
the rest of the forecast including Tuesday morning and into
Tuesday. The cirrus overhead may have a small impact on overnight
lows as the recent updates have bumped lows into the mid and upper
60s in most locations. The HRRR model continues to show isolated to
widely scattered convection across south central Kansas late this
afternoon likely based on reaching convective temperatures. Current
trends suggest this is overdone as was the case Sunday afternoon,
and PoPs will not be added at this time.
No major shift in airmass is taking place tonight and the same
general pattern of surface winds and diurnal warming is expected
heading into Tuesday afternoon. A breakdown in the ridge by a mid
level shortwave will create scattered convection across northeast
and east central Colorado by late in the afternoon. Low PoPs will be
included for about the western half of the area starting at about
about 23 UTC, following previous forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The upper level ridge will flatten out and be shunted southward
during the next couple of days as a series of upper level
shortwaves move up and over the ridge. These features will bring a
chance of thunderstorms to the forecast area through this weekend.
The slight chance of thunderstorms will start out across far
western Kansas Tuesday night then across central Kansas Wednesday
night. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be
from the south to south southwest Tuesday night through Thursday
with a surface trough located across eastern Colorado and far
western Kansas. A better chance of thunderstorms will be expected
this weekend as the upper level ridge slould retrogrades towards the
southwest United States. Winds will generally be from the southeast
during this time frame as a stationary front will be located at the
surface south of the area with a dome of high pressure to the north.
Highs through the extended period will generally be in the low to
mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Tuesday
morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist through early
Tuesday morning as a lee side trough remains anchored across
extreme eastern Colorado. The southerly winds will then pick up a
little to around 15 to 25kt through Tuesday afternoon as the lee
side trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 93 69 95 / 0 10 20 20
GCK 68 90 68 94 / 0 20 20 20
EHA 66 91 67 95 / 0 20 20 10
LBL 66 92 69 96 / 0 10 20 10
HYS 68 96 70 94 / 0 10 20 30
P28 68 93 71 94 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
This mornings convective allowing models allowed some room for
convection to develop once again just north of the I-70 corridor and
be driven southeast by the man flow, much like last evening. So far
this afternoon the area of enhanced cu development across northwest
Kansas has not shown signs of stronger shower or storm development
although the GLD 88D was indicating rain in the HCA. We will
continue to carry less than 20 PoPs trough the end of the afternoon
and early evening to see how this evolves, especially given the
increasingly robust HRRR model drives a few storms into Rush and
Stafford counties.
For the rest of the period including tonight into tomorrow, we
followed the NAM and Raw Model Blend which seemed to do the best job
collectively with temperatures and surface winds for yesterday.
little overall change in airmass will take place with the upper
ridge settling slightly farther east.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
Drier conditions will persist across western Kansas through early
Tuesday afternoon as an upper level ridge axis shifts eastward across
the Western High Plains. Medium range models then indicate the ridge
breaking down late Tuesday as a series of H5 vort maxima associated
with a shortwave eject out of the Rockies into the high plains of
western Nebraska and western Kansas. A developing lee side trough
will strengthen as the shortwave approaches while low/mid level
moisture continues to pool slowly across central and portions of
western Kansas. This will set the stage for possible thunderstorm
development across portions of southwest and central Kansas Tuesday
evening into Wednesday. Although low/mid level lapse rates will
steepen through the afternoon period Tuesday, NAM/GFS model
soundings show very little instability in regards to available CAPE
with values well under 100 J/KG. This will likely hinder storm
development through much of the afternoon with chances increasing
Tuesday evening as CAPE begins to rise. Although less than
favorable, a slightly strengthened flow aloft along with decent
directional shear may be enough to support stronger thunderstorms
with gusty winds the primary threat.
Precip chances will shift eastward across western into central
Kansas Wednesday as the surface trough migrates through.
Thunderstorms will be possible again into Thursday as H5 vort
maxima continue to move out of the Rockies into the Western High
Plains. However, better chances will be more to the north across
west central and central Kansas in association with the stronger
flow. Seasonal temperatures will continue through Thursday as a
south to southeasterly flow prevails through much of the period.
This will reinforce the warm air mass already in place across
western Kansas keeping highs up into the 90s(F) each day through
the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A very slowly changing surface pressure pattern marked by relative
high pressure over Missouri will result in light winds veering south
with time through tonight. VFR - clear conditions are expected with
only a very small chance of surface convergence/diurnally forced
high based CB`s between around 22-and 02 near and east of KHYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 63 92 68 94 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 64 91 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 93 69 96 / 0 0 0 20
HYS 67 95 70 93 / 20 0 0 10
P28 66 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2014
...updated short term...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
Weak anticyclonic surface flow was in place over the Kansas High
Plains with a weak moisture gradient from west to east. Surface dew
points were in the lower 40s in the far west to around 60 degrees
from Stafford country through Medicine lodge. Weak downslope
through the Smoky Hills region likely added a few degrees to
temperatures this afternoon, reaching the low 90s at Hays. The upper
ridging pattern in place and light winds also were contributing to
a significant lack of bulk shear across the area. The higher dew
points of central Kansas contributed to higher CAPE values up to
around 1500 j/kg in the south central Kansas counties. A weak
surface convergence zone across northwest Kansas and sn Nebraska was
a zone of current ongoing cu development
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
This mornings convective allowing models allowed some room for
convection to develop once again just north of the I-70 corridor and
be driven southeast by the man flow, much like last evening. So far
this afternoon the area of enhanced cu development across northwest
Kansas has not shown signs of stronger shower or storm development
although the GLD 88D was indicating rain in the HCA. We will
continue to carry less than 20 PoPs trough the end of the afternoon
and early evening to see how this evolves, especially given the
increasingly robust HRRR model drives a few storms into Rush and
Stafford counties.
For the rest of the period including tonight into tomorrow, we
followed the NAM and Raw Model Blend which seemed to do the best job
collectively with temperatures and surface winds for yesterday.
little overall change in airmass will take place with the upper
ridge settling slightly farther east.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
The upper level ridge currently situated over the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains will flatten out somewhat through the early
part of the extended period. Mainly dry weather will persist across
western Kansas through Tuesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from late Tuesday through Wednesday as
an upper level disturbance lifts out of the Desert Southwest through
the central Rockies and Plains through mid week. Model soundings are
not overly unstable but a favorable warm advection pattern develops
which should enhance upward vertical motion and thunderstorm
development. Thursday should see a lull in precipitation chances as
the energy from the first disturbance moves east of the region and
upper level ridging briefly builds back into the central High
Plains. The models show additional disturbances moving east through
the Rockies into the northern and central Plains later in the week.
Tough to say how much energy with these systems will move over
Kansas as the stronger upper level westerly flow will reside over
the northern portions of the country later in the week but for now,
the chance/slight chance pops in the extended initialization look
reasonable.
High temperatures should be in the low to mid 90s through the period
which is near seasonal normals for early August.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A very slowly changing surface pressure pattern marked by relative
high pressure over Missouri will result in light winds veering south
with time through tonight. VFR - clear conditions are expected with
only a very small chance of surface convergence/diurnally forced
high based CB`s between around 22-and 02 near and east of KHYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 63 92 68 94 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 64 91 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 93 69 96 / 0 0 0 20
HYS 67 95 70 93 / 20 0 0 10
P28 66 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. BEEFED UP THE FOG IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS WE ARE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...IMPACT SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY LOW AS FOG SHOULD HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY THE TIME CHURCH
GOERS GET OUT. ALSO AM NOT CONVINCED FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT HEADLINES. HIT THE FOG HARDEST ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
IRVINE TO MANCHESTER TO WHITESBURG LINE...WHERE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY
SAW EVENING CONVECTION AND RAINFALL. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT FOG FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE
LESS RAIN WAS EVIDENT WENT WITH PATCHY DENSE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND
GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED GRIDS FOR HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING AT A RAPID PACE THIS EVENING AS
AIR MASS IN PLACE STABILIZES. WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH NEXT UPDATE...AND POSSIBLY ALL POPS. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED WELL IN THE
PRESENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS AND
FRESHENED UP ZONE WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HRRR SOLUTION WAS USED TO CREATE THE NEW
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z TONIGHT...THE NAM12
MODEL WAS USED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
ROUGHLY 2Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING
WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AFTER
THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PATTERN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60...WHICH IS
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEATHER RELATED ISSUED
TO LOOK OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
DENSITY OF FOG THAT FORMS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
TODAY. THE OTHER FACTOR INVOLVED WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT PERSISTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORE
QUICKLY THEN FOG FORMATION WILL BE FAVORED...PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE FLOW LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH THE DEEPER AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING
BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...DRY WEATHER WILL HANG IN THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS
ACROSS OUR VICINITY. DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT A BIT IN
THE POPS FURTHER OUT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO NAIL DOWN
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN THOSE AREA...THE FOG IS
IN THE VALLEYS AND WELL AS ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. THE REST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY HAS OR WILL HAVE AREAS FOG OF DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS. THIS
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE FOG WILL CONTINUE THICKEN AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE TAF STATIONS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT
AND THE GFS MOS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE NAM AND THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO VLIFR IN ALL OF THE TAF STATIONS. SJS
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF BETWEEN 13-14Z...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WERE STALLED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TAKEN
A LITTLE LONGER TO GET GOING TODAY BUT RADAR SHOWS QUITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S VS UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. STORM MOTION PER THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR
SOUNDING IS A WHOPPING 1 KT. SO DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWER OVERHEAD TO
MOVE AWAY FAST IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM. IT WILL HAVE TO BASICALLY
RAIN ITSELF OUT. MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER MORE
INTENSE CELLS. HRRR ONCE AGAIN OVER DOING COVERAGE TODAY BUT
STILL BELIEVE THE DIURNAL TREND ITS SHOWING WITH MOST ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY 04Z.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. THIS ALONG WILL LEAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP TO
JUST DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL AT LEAST
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. 11
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH GULF DURING THE WEEK
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW
SEAS. 11
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 91 71 90 / 20 30 20 30
BTR 72 90 72 91 / 20 30 20 30
ASD 72 91 72 88 / 30 40 20 30
MSY 76 90 76 89 / 30 40 20 30
GPT 76 90 77 92 / 30 40 20 30
PQL 71 91 72 90 / 30 40 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND A PWAT OF
NEARLY 2 INCHES... SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. RUC MEAN RH FROM H10 TO H5 HAS 85
PERCENT JUST OFFSHORE FOR THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH ALL THESE
FACTORS...LOWERED THE POPS SOME FOR TODAY WITH THE RATIONAL THAT
OFTEN A WEAKNESS AREA AWAY FROM THE SFC LOW ACTS TO DAMPEN RAIN
CHANCES AS WE SAW THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA PER THE STP 8BIT DATA FROM THE WSR88D. MOST OF RAIN
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE INFLUENCED NEAR AND AROUND THE LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN CAN EXPECT THESE
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. KEG
.LONG TERM...
AS THESE OLD BOUNDARIES GRADUALLY WASH OUT... WE WILL SEE A RETURN
TO A NORMAL SUMMER REGIME WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONTS..BUT OVERALL DRIER. THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND EVENTUALLY RELEASE SOME OF ITS GRIP ON
THE SE US BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
DESERT SW AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE WESTWARD. KEG
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY MVFR IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING OUTSIDE LIMITED CONVECTION AREAS. DOWNBURST GUST POTENTIAL
25-30 KT TODAY. PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED BY RAINFALL TODAY.
24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 5 DAYS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF. THE GULF-LAND BREEZE
CYCLE APPEARS TO BE PERTURBED BY LARGER SCALE FEATURES BUT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FOCUSED ON SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE OVER AND SOUTH OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 71 87 71 / 40 20 30 20
BTR 88 72 89 72 / 40 20 30 20
ASD 89 72 88 72 / 40 30 40 20
MSY 89 76 89 76 / 40 30 30 20
GPT 91 76 91 77 / 40 30 30 20
PQL 87 71 88 72 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
857 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING INCLUDING
TAILORING SOUTHERN POPS CLOSER TO WHAT MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WHILE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST. INCREASED POPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A BRIEF
THREAT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO
ONCE AGAIN REMAIN OFFSHORE.
EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO
KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AFTER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF. LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS A SFC COLD FNT
TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY THEN THE FNT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA TRACKS TO THE NE STAYING WELL OUT TO SEA AND HAVING NO IMPACT
ON OUR WX. THE FNT WILL RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSTMS FOR THE FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER. THE FNT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NGT
CONTINUING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS. ON THURSDAY A SECOND FNT MOVES
THRU AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW
AND MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPPER LVL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THRU FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SFC TROFS MOVING
THRU THUS GIVING US A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE E AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT ALLOWING A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ALSO BUILD IN FROM
THE W. THIS SHOULD GIVE US IMPROVING WX ON SATURDAY.
USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN PATCHY MORNING
FOG... IMPROVING TO VFR. DITTO FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
MOVES TO THE NE STAYING WELL OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER THIS STORM MAY
GENERATE SWELLS THAT IMPACT OUR COASTAL WATERS IN THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE THE SFC WEATHER PATTERN HAS WEAK
FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD RESULTING IN
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND NOSING SSW
INTO THE MID ATLC. THIS IN SITU CAD SETUP MAKING FOR AN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL EARLY AUGUST WX ACRS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
TDA GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE 70S.
WILL HAVE HI PROB FOR SHRAS OVRNGT ERN PORTION (60-80%)...NOT
RULING OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RA...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A LO PROB
ATTM (UNLESS PAST COUPLE RUC RUNS TURNS OUT RIGHT W/
DEVELOPING/MOVING AREA OF MDT/HEAVY RA NE NR THE CST OVRNGT).
HANGING ONTO 20% W. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ACRS MOST OF SE VA/NE NC PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE
AVERAGED 2-3" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 4" RECEIVED. WHILE PRECIP
THUS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SPOTTY AND SPORADIC...THINK THERE
ARE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT TO
JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH. PER COLLABORATION W/ NEIGHBORING OFFICES
WENT FLOOD WATCH RATHER THAN FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN`T BE RULED OUT LT TNGT OR SUN ESP IN
URBAN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH YET ANOTHER
S/W ENHANCING RAINFALL PTNTL ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT AREAS
FARTHER INLAND MAY TEND TO SEE MORE BREAKS AND LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIP AS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER EAST THAN PAST 2
DAYS. A BIT WARMER INLAND AS PCPN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SPOTTY
IN NATURE. HIGHS U70S/LOWER 80S EAST TO LWR/MID 80S ALONG/WEST OF
I-95.
LOWS SUN NIGHT 65-70 F WITH HIGHEST PCPN CHCS ALONG THE
COAST...HAVE SCALED BACK TO ONLY 20-30% CHC POPS NW 1/2 OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOR MON/TUE...GFS/ECMWF DIFFER AS TO EXTENT OF SFC TROUGHING
REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
RESPECT TO WHERE TC BERTHA WILL BE LOCATED. WILL RETAIN CHC POPS
ALL AREAS MON BUT WILL STILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.
ON TUE...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS LATEST ECMWF IS WETTER AS
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES DEEPER MOISTURE BACK N INTO THE MID
ATLC WHILE GFS IS GENLY DRY. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POPS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND
HIGHS TUE 85-90 F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SITS BTWN THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE DAY WED INTO THU MORNING...AND THEN GET STRETCHED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER THU INTO FRI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ON WED...THEN PRECIP
GETS SHUNTED SOUTH ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS SWD FOR
THU/FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WED
(UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND THEN COOL UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THU-SAT (GENERALLY IN THE 80S). LOW TEMPERATURES TUE/WED NIGHTS
WILL AVERAGE OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND THEN EXPERIENCE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SE VA AND NE NC
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN VA AND THE DELMARVA THRU 12Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. CONDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR DURING THIS
TIME...EXCEPT ONLY MVFR AT KECG. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...PRECIP
WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO FAR SE VA AND NE NC WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY. IMPROVED CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW
15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT. THE FRONT GETS PULLED
OFFSHORE BY TROPICAL STORM BERTHA BY TUESDAY AS IT STAYS WELL EAST
OF THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALSO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD ENCROACH THE AREA
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. CURRENT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS 4-5 FT SWELL OUT NEAR 20 NM LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES TWD THE VA/NC BORDER BY THURSDAY. OVERALL SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MINOR AFFECTS FELT BY THE PASSING OF TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODIC RAINFALL ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER NE NC AND SE
VA WITH ADDNTL QPF AMTS BTWN 1.5-2.5 INCHES (LCLLY HIGHER IN
TRAINING ECHOES) PRIMARILY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
RAISED FLOOD WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE GENLY RECEIVED 2-4" OVER PAST
24 HRS WHERE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...LOW LYING
AREAS...AND TO RISES OF SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NOT IN THE
WATCH IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY AUGUST...COMING CLOSE TO
CHALLENGING RECORDS. FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY/AUGUST 2ND:
RICHMOND....74 F (1903).
NORFOLK.....74 F (1916).
SALISBURY...74 F (1959).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095>100.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
139 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 TUESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES ON MORNING UPDATE.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...INITIAL THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD BIT OF EVENING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING
NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH POORLY ORGANIZED MULITCELLS SUPPORTED BY ML CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF < 20 KTS. SOME MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WEAK MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MODEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE FORCING. THAT SHORTWAVE
IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND N MO AND LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
I HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG NORTH AND EAST OF US-131 AND I-96 TILL ABOUT 9 AM. THE
RAP MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN OFF LAKE HURON INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AIMED DIRECTLY INTO THE WHERE DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE RAP MODEL VISIBILITY FORECAST...WHICH IS DOING
GREAT ON THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CURRENTLY (05 AM) SHOWS IT TOTALLY
MIXING OUT BY 9 AM. THAT MAKES SENSE AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE FOG AND IT IS SHALLOW FOG TOO. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH APX ON THE ISSUE WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BUT JUST TO PUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS AND CALL THAT
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MI.
SB CAPE VALUES WILL POTENTIALLY REACH AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER OUR
EASTERN FCST AREA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ML CAPE VALUES MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 750 J/KG
OVER OUR SE FCST AREA ACCORDING TO LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
FROM THE WEAK COLD FRONT... WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
AROUND 15-20 KTS AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY
IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND IT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE AREA
NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WX
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S... EXCEPT A
LITTLE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE DUE TO SW FLOW AND
THE LAKE BREEZE OFF OF RELATIVELY COLD LAKE WATERS. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR OR EAST OF
US-131 THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN IT TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE FOR THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD WEATHERWISE IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS... BUT STILL I DO NOT SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S... MORE
LIKE MID 80S HIGHS BY SATURDAY.
AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... THE EASTERN TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE POLAR JET
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. WE THEN GET SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. UNLIKE THIS LAST DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WHEN THE POLAR JET WAS WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
THIS TIME IT WILL BE ONLY FOR A DAY. THAT MEANS THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR... TUESDAY NIGHT WE HAVE THE JET EXIT REGION
OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TO MUCH
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. EVEN SO I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
JUST I CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
THE FOG THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE
SUNSHINE TODAY ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING A BIT. WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS RIGHT ON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WI...AND EAST OF OUR
TERMINALS.
WE DO EXPECT FOG TO BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AT THE SFC AND A SLIGHTLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM LATE IN THE NIGHT...HOWEVER
WE FEEL THAT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MON AFTERNOON NORTH
AND ALMOST MON EVENING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS A FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FOG...MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DENSITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AIRMASS MOISTENS FURTHER AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON WHEN
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. NO WIND OR WAVE ISSUES IN THE
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
NO HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN. BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...COBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1101 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 TUESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES ON MORNING UPDATE.
LOOKING AT TOMORROW...INITIAL THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD BIT OF EVENING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING
NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH POORLY ORGANIZED MULITCELLS SUPPORTED BY ML CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF < 20 KTS. SOME MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WEAK MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MODEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE FORCING. THAT SHORTWAVE
IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND N MO AND LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
I HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG NORTH AND EAST OF US-131 AND I-96 TILL ABOUT 9 AM. THE
RAP MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN OFF LAKE HURON INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AIMED DIRECTLY INTO THE WHERE DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE RAP MODEL VISIBILITY FORECAST...WHICH IS DOING
GREAT ON THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CURRENTLY (05 AM) SHOWS IT TOTALLY
MIXING OUT BY 9 AM. THAT MAKES SENSE AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE FOG AND IT IS SHALLOW FOG TOO. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH APX ON THE ISSUE WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BUT JUST TO PUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS AND CALL THAT
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MI.
SB CAPE VALUES WILL POTENTIALLY REACH AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER OUR
EASTERN FCST AREA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ML CAPE VALUES MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 750 J/KG
OVER OUR SE FCST AREA ACCORDING TO LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
FROM THE WEAK COLD FRONT... WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
AROUND 15-20 KTS AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY
IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND IT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE AREA
NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WX
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S... EXCEPT A
LITTLE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE DUE TO SW FLOW AND
THE LAKE BREEZE OFF OF RELATIVELY COLD LAKE WATERS. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR OR EAST OF
US-131 THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN IT TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE FOR THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD WEATHERWISE IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS... BUT STILL I DO NOT SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S... MORE
LIKE MID 80S HIGHS BY SATURDAY.
AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... THE EASTERN TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE POLAR JET
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. WE THEN GET SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. UNLIKE THIS LAST DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WHEN THE POLAR JET WAS WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
THIS TIME IT WILL BE ONLY FOR A DAY. THAT MEANS THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR... TUESDAY NIGHT WE HAVE THE JET EXIT REGION
OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TO MUCH
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. EVEN SO I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
JUST I CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ANY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
AUGUST SUNSHINE AND THE FOG BEING OF A SHALLOW NATURE. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TIME INTO THIS EVENING.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...I EXPECT AND AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ARRIVES AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THE CHANCES OF
SEEING SUCH A STORM IS BEST CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. I EXPECT
MVFR FOG MONDAY MORNING AS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FOG...MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DENSITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AIRMASS MOISTENS FURTHER AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON WHEN
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. NO WIND OR WAVE ISSUES IN THE
FORESEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
NO HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN. BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COBB
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...COBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1010 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED. LATEST SFC AND OBJECTIVE
DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFC FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDS FROM WAWA ONTARIO
THROUGH MARQUETTE TO IRONWOOD. THE FRONT LIKELY SURGED ACROSS THE
COLD LAKE AND WILL NOW SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE LANDMASS
OVER UPPER MI. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW POOLING OF HIGHER SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NRN WI
AND SRN UPPER MI. WITH THAT SAID...THE EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG JUST INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. THE CONVECTION BEARING HI RES
NWP ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS OCCURRING BY 18Z...WITH
BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM
NEGAUNEE THROUGH CHATHAM TO SENEY AND NEWBERRY. DESPITE FORECAST
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF ONLY 6-6.25C/KM...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME DRYING
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH MAY PERHAPS SUGGEST A MINOR WIND GUST
THREAT WITH ANY STORM. MOST LIKELY...ANY STRONGER STORM MAY SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER THE
UPR LKS BTWN TROF CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. DESPITE SHARP MID LVL INVRN/VERY DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS
THAT IS BRINGING MOCLR CONDITIONS TO UPR MI...THERE ARE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER WI AND FAR WRN UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV DROPPING
SEWD THRU SRN MN. A STRONGER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT RATHER WEAK SFC-H85
COLD FNT MOVING INTO NRN MN. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS/TS LAST EVNG
OVER FARN NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FNT IN THE
FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB /00Z PWAT WAS
1.25 INCH OR ALMOST 150 PCT OF NORMAL AND KINX WAS 32/...BUT LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...PASSAGE OF SHARPER FORCING TO THE N AND ABSENCE OF
SGNFT H85-7 MSTR INFLOW NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
HAVE CAUSED THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE MUCAPE IS 100-250 J/KG AT BEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG COLD FNT.
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ESEWD...WITH
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT ON A LINE THRU NW LK SUP AT 12Z THIS MRNG
FCST TO REACH THE SE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. WL CARRY ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA GIVEN
PRESENT COVERAGE ALONG THE FNT AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER FORCING TO THE
N. BUT AS THE FNT/MID LVL COMMA TAIL MSTR RIBBON PRESSES TO THE SE
THIS AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SHOWER/TS
COVERAGE TO INCRS. INTERACTION BTWN THE FNT AND LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THAT WL SHARPEN THE LLVL CNVGC WL ALSO AID THE CONVECTION. BOTH THE
00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS INDICATE THE LI WL DROP AS LO AS -6 TO
-8C AS MUCAPES REACH ARND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL CWA...
JUSTIFYING THE GOING LIKELY POPS IN THE CURRENT FCST FOR THAT AREA
THIS AFTN. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AS HI AS 30 KTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER CELLS. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING TO 80-85 AHEAD OF THE FNT
RESULTING IN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE PBL...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR INDICATE SVR
WX IS NOT LIKELY.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DRYING ALF FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE CWA
DIMINISHING THIS EVNG. BUT SINCE SEVERAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEAKER SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALF AND ASSOCIATED
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IMPACTING THE CWA OVERNGT...WL RETAIN
SOME LOWER CHC POPS MAINLY OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO THE HIER
LINGERING PWAT AOA AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE BETTER FORCING AN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BRUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE U.P./WI
BORDER TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS WILL SWING
THROUGH DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE DURING THAT TIME.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
500MB RIDGING SLIDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG AT IWD/SAW TO BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG. A
COLD FNT PUSHING ACRS UPR MI TDAY MAY BRING SOME -SHRA/TS TO MAINLY
SAW THIS AFTN. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE FROPA WL OCCUR TOO EARLY
AT IWD AND CMX TO ALLOW FOR ANY SHOWERS AT THOSE SITES. ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE TDAY AND THIS EVNG...LINGERING LLVL MSTR
BLO SOME MID LVL DRYING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FOG FORMATION TNGT AS
WINDS WL BE LGT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
AT CMX AND IWD...WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE FLOW REGIME/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UNDER 15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN FALLS TODAY. BUT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 TUESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
I HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG NORTH AND EAST OF US-131 AND I-96 TILL ABOUT 9 AM. THE
RAP MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN OFF LAKE HURON INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AIMED DIRECTLY INTO THE WHERE DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE RAP MODEL VISIBILITY FORECAST...WHICH IS DOING
GREAT ON THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CURRENTLY (05 AM) SHOWS IT TOTALLY
MIXING OUT BY 9 AM. THAT MAKES SENSE AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE FOG AND IT IS SHALLOW FOG TOO. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH APX ON THE ISSUE WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BUT JUST TO PUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS AND CALL THAT
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MI.
SB CAPE VALUES WILL POTENTIALLY REACH AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER OUR
EASTERN FCST AREA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ML CAPE VALUES MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 750 J/KG
OVER OUR SE FCST AREA ACCORDING TO LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
FROM THE WEAK COLD FRONT... WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
AROUND 15-20 KTS AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY
IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND IT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE AREA
NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WX
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S... EXCEPT A
LITTLE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE DUE TO SW FLOW AND
THE LAKE BREEZE OFF OF RELATIVELY COLD LAKE WATERS. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR OR EAST OF
US-131 THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN IT TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE FOR THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD WEATHERWISE IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS... BUT STILL I DO NOT SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S... MORE
LIKE MID 80S HIGHS BY SATURDAY.
AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... THE EASTERN TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE POLAR JET
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. WE THEN GET SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. UNLIKE THIS LAST DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WHEN THE POLAR JET WAS WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
THIS TIME IT WILL BE ONLY FOR A DAY. THAT MEANS THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR... TUESDAY NIGHT WE HAVE THE JET EXIT REGION
OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TO MUCH
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. EVEN SO I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
JUST I CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ANY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
AUGUST SUNSHINE AND THE FOG BEING OF A SHALLOW NATURE. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TIME INTO THIS EVENING.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...I EXPECT AND AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ARRIVES AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THE CHANCES OF
SEEING SUCH A STORM IS BEST CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. I EXPECT
MVFR FOG MONDAY MORNING AS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAIRLY MINIMAL
WIND AND WAVE ACTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER
TWO FEET. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG THAT MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES IS
ANTICIPATED THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS DUE TO
RELATIVELY COLD LAKE WATERS AND HIGHER DEW POINT AIR JUST ABOVE
THE LAKE SURFACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
NO HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN. BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER THE
UPR LKS BTWN TROF CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. DESPITE SHARP MID LVL INVRN/VERY DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS
THAT IS BRINGING MOCLR CONDITIONS TO UPR MI...THERE ARE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER WI AND FAR WRN UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV DROPPING
SEWD THRU SRN MN. A STRONGER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT RATHER WEAK SFC-H85
COLD FNT MOVING INTO NRN MN. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS/TS LAST EVNG
OVER FARN NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FNT IN THE
FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB /00Z PWAT WAS
1.25 INCH OR ALMOST 150 PCT OF NORMAL AND KINX WAS 32/...BUT LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...PASSAGE OF SHARPER FORCING TO THE N AND ABSENCE OF
SGNFT H85-7 MSTR INFLOW NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
HAVE CAUSED THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE MUCAPE IS 100-250 J/KG AT BEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG COLD FNT.
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ESEWD...WITH
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT ON A LINE THRU NW LK SUP AT 12Z THIS MRNG
FCST TO REACH THE SE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. WL CARRY ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA GIVEN
PRESENT COVERAGE ALONG THE FNT AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER FORCING TO THE
N. BUT AS THE FNT/MID LVL COMMA TAIL MSTR RIBBON PRESSES TO THE SE
THIS AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SHOWER/TS
COVERAGE TO INCRS. INTERACTION BTWN THE FNT AND LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THAT WL SHARPEN THE LLVL CNVGC WL ALSO AID THE CONVECTION. BOTH THE
00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS INDICATE THE LI WL DROP AS LO AS -6 TO
-8C AS MUCAPES REACH ARND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL CWA...
JUSTIFYING THE GOING LIKELY POPS IN THE CURRENT FCST FOR THAT AREA
THIS AFTN. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AS HI AS 30 KTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER CELLS. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING TO 80-85 AHEAD OF THE FNT
RESULTING IN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE PBL...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR INDICATE SVR
WX IS NOT LIKELY.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DRYING ALF FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE CWA
DIMINISHING THIS EVNG. BUT SINCE SEVERAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEAKER SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALF AND ASSOCIATED
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IMPACTING THE CWA OVERNGT...WL RETAIN
SOME LOWER CHC POPS MAINLY OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO THE HIER
LINGERING PWAT AOA AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE BETTER FORCING AN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BRUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE U.P./WI
BORDER TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS WILL SWING
THROUGH DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE DURING THAT TIME.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
500MB RIDGING SLIDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG AT IWD/SAW TO BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG. A
COLD FNT PUSHING ACRS UPR MI TDAY MAY BRING SOME -SHRA/TS TO MAINLY
SAW THIS AFTN. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE FROPA WL OCCUR TOO EARLY
AT IWD AND CMX TO ALLOW FOR ANY SHOWERS AT THOSE SITES. ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE TDAY AND THIS EVNG...LINGERING LLVL MSTR
BLO SOME MID LVL DRYING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FOG FORMATION TNGT AS
WINDS WL BE LGT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
AT CMX AND IWD...WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE FLOW REGIME/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UNDER 15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN FALLS TODAY. BUT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
604 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 TUESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
I HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG NORTH AND EAST OF US-131 AND I-96 TILL ABOUT 9 AM. THE
RAP MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN OFF LAKE HURON INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AIMED DIRECTLY INTO THE WHERE DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE RAP MODEL VISIBILITY FORECAST...WHICH IS DOING
GREAT ON THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CURRENTLY (05 AM) SHOWS IT TOTALLY
MIXING OUT BY 9 AM. THAT MAKES SENSE AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE FOG AND IT IS SHALLOW FOG TOO. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH APX ON THE ISSUE WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BUT JUST TO PUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS AND CALL THAT
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MI.
SB CAPE VALUES WILL POTENTIALLY REACH AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER OUR
EASTERN FCST AREA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ML CAPE VALUES MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 750 J/KG
OVER OUR SE FCST AREA ACCORDING TO LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
FROM THE WEAK COLD FRONT... WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
AROUND 15-20 KTS AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY
IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND IT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE AREA
NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WX
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S... EXCEPT A
LITTLE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE DUE TO SW FLOW AND
THE LAKE BREEZE OFF OF RELATIVELY COLD LAKE WATERS. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR OR EAST OF
US-131 THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL IN IT TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FCST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE FOR THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD WEATHERWISE IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS... BUT STILL I DO NOT SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S... MORE
LIKE MID 80S HIGHS BY SATURDAY.
AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... THE EASTERN TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE POLAR JET
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. WE THEN GET SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. UNLIKE THIS LAST DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WHEN THE POLAR JET WAS WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
THIS TIME IT WILL BE ONLY FOR A DAY. THAT MEANS THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR... TUESDAY NIGHT WE HAVE THE JET EXIT REGION
OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TO MUCH
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. EVEN SO I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
JUST I CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING BY 09-10Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 13Z SUNDAY. NO CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAIRLY MINIMAL
WIND AND WAVE ACTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER
TWO FEET. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG THAT MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES IS
ANTICIPATED THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS DUE TO
RELATIVELY COLD LAKE WATERS AND HIGHER DEW POINT AIR JUST ABOVE
THE LAKE SURFACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
NO HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN. BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER THE
UPR LKS BTWN TROF CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. DESPITE SHARP MID LVL INVRN/VERY DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS
THAT IS BRINGING MOCLR CONDITIONS TO UPR MI...THERE ARE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER WI AND FAR WRN UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV DROPPING
SEWD THRU SRN MN. A STRONGER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT RATHER WEAK SFC-H85
COLD FNT MOVING INTO NRN MN. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS/TS LAST EVNG
OVER FARN NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FNT IN THE
FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB /00Z PWAT WAS
1.25 INCH OR ALMOST 150 PCT OF NORMAL AND KINX WAS 32/...BUT LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...PASSAGE OF SHARPER FORCING TO THE N AND ABSENCE OF
SGNFT H85-7 MSTR INFLOW NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
HAVE CAUSED THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY EARLY THIS
MRNG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE MUCAPE IS 100-250 J/KG AT BEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG COLD FNT.
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ESEWD...WITH
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT ON A LINE THRU NW LK SUP AT 12Z THIS MRNG
FCST TO REACH THE SE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. WL CARRY ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA GIVEN
PRESENT COVERAGE ALONG THE FNT AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER FORCING TO THE
N. BUT AS THE FNT/MID LVL COMMA TAIL MSTR RIBBON PRESSES TO THE SE
THIS AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SHOWER/TS
COVERAGE TO INCRS. INTERACTION BTWN THE FNT AND LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THAT WL SHARPEN THE LLVL CNVGC WL ALSO AID THE CONVECTION. BOTH THE
00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW MODELS INDICATE THE LI WL DROP AS LO AS -6 TO
-8C AS MUCAPES REACH ARND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL CWA...
JUSTIFYING THE GOING LIKELY POPS IN THE CURRENT FCST FOR THAT AREA
THIS AFTN. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AS HI AS 30 KTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER CELLS. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING TO 80-85 AHEAD OF THE FNT
RESULTING IN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE PBL...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR INDICATE SVR
WX IS NOT LIKELY.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DRYING ALF FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING POPS OVER THE SE CWA
DIMINISHING THIS EVNG. BUT SINCE SEVERAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEAKER SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW ALF AND ASSOCIATED
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IMPACTING THE CWA OVERNGT...WL RETAIN
SOME LOWER CHC POPS MAINLY OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO THE HIER
LINGERING PWAT AOA AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE BETTER FORCING AN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BRUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE U.P./WI
BORDER TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS WILL SWING
THROUGH DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE DURING THAT TIME.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
500MB RIDGING SLIDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
DRY HI PRES WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS AT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. MID CLDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT WL
ARRIVE LATE TNGT WHILE ISOLD TO SCT SHRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE SHRA
COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE
TAFS. INCLUDED VCTS IN KSAW WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE FLOW REGIME/WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UNDER 15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN FALLS TODAY. BUT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
955 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 955 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Scattered thunderstorms that were over northern Missouri earlier
this evening have dissipated. Still expect additional development
over the next few hours as the RAP shows an increase in 925-850mb
moisture convergence though 06Z over central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois that will shift southeast
across the CWA through 12Z. Have mainly slight chances of
thunderstorms the rest of the evening, but then have low chance
pops again overnight. Rest of the forecast including temperatures
still looks good and have made only minor adjustments based on
latest observations.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Weak warm advection has fueled the redevelopment of spotty
convection just to the east of a KIRK-KCOU-Eminence line over the
past few hours. Consensus of much of the short-range, hi-res
guidance is that this activity will work east and likely weaken
during the evening, but expect another uptick in PoPs after 06z as
subtle veering of weak low level jet focuses somewhat stronger lift
in a N-S axis roughly centered near or just west of STL area during
the predawn hours.
Overnight mins are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than
those of last night, primarily due to clouds.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
12z runs are forecasting a very subtle flattening of the mid level
flow regime over the mid-Mississippi heading into midweek. This
will cause a southward shift in the baroclinicity and frontal
boundary currently locked to our north, and ultimately result in
increasing rainfall chances over much of the CWA. By the end of the
week, many parts of the CWA should have received some very welcomed
wet weather.
This morning`s runs offer fairly similar solutions regarding precip
trends into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms that manage to develop
overnight tonight should drift south and weaken on Tuesday morning,
and I`ve continued low PoPs into tomorrow afternoon for areas along
and south of a KCOU-KUIN line as surface boundary will be lingering
over this part of the FA, and interacting with the increasingly
unstable AMS driven by diurnal heating. Any storms that manage to
develop Tuesday afternoon should weaken during the evening.
Model consensus remains fairly good agreement with large scale
trends heading into Tuesday night, with synoptic scale models all
forecasting the intensification of the low level jet over the mid
Missouri Valley during the late night hours. The resultant theta-e
advection/lift should lead to the development of an MCS over IA that
will roll southeast, with the leading edge of this system
threatening northern sections of our CWA late Tuesday night. NAM is
a bit further north with the QPF of this system than the GFS and the
ECMWF, and since the NAM has been a bit too far north with the
last few convective complexes, have given a nod to the consensus of
the more southern solutions.
Guidance specifics become a bit more murky heading into Wednesday
and Thursday, but all solutions indicate persistent low level WAA
into the area, combined with one or shortwaves/vort maxes drifting
across the region. Thunderstorm threat on Wednesday will likely be
a combination of the aforementioned MCS over northeast parts of the
CWA, along with additional more scattered development occurring
further to the south due to the above forcing mechanisms, along with
possible outflow interaction and increasingly unstable afternoon
airmass. Have continued our highest PoPs for Wednesday night and
Thursday, as increased baroclinicity should lead to the best low
level forcing during this time frame.
Heading into the medium range ridge begins to re-exert its
influence, but whats left of the westerly flow will allow
weak dynamics to cross the area, interacting with the residualy
unstable airmass and baroclinic zone that remains parked over the
region. Have maintained earlier forecast trends for now, keeping
fairly high PoPs into Thursday night, then slowly backing off to
low/slight chance PoPs over the weekend and into early next week.
Temperature-wise, fairly typical late summer readings can be
expected tomorrow, but the combination of clouds and the southward
push of cooler air should mean cooler weather over northeast parts
of the CWA on Wednesday, and over the rest of the area by Thursday
and Friday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Specifics for KCOU/KUIN: Widely scattered convection should
diminish after sunset with at least a few hours of VFR conditions
at KCOU/KUIN before redevelopment occurs overnight. Confidence in
SH/TS is higher at KUIN than at KCOU based on model forecasts of
the low level jet. A slow moving cold front will sag southward
overnight and tomorrow. Depending on where the front is located
tomorrow afternoon, scattered convection is possible at KCOU after
18z.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Isolated SH/TS possible over the
next 2 hours due to an unstable air mass over the region. VFR
conditions are expected for several hours after sunset.
Uncertainty then increases after 06z because new SH/TS development
may occur north of the metro area terminals and then move
southward overnight, possibly reaching KSTL/KSUS/KCPS before 12z.
Another factor to consider is a slow moving cold front which will
sag southward tonight and tomorrow. Depending on where the front
is located tomorrow afternoon, scattered convection is possible
again at KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, generally after 18z.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
707 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
A nice cumulus field is developing with daytime heating and
instability this afternoon especially over southern Missouri.
There is a very subtle upper level shortwave moving through the
area this afternoon. The latest HRRR is indicating isolated to
scattered convection to develop by 22z near I-44 and move
southward into the early evening hours. Will still carry 20 to 30
percent pops for this general area into the evening hours.
Another upper level wave will move across the northern part of the
state by early tomorrow morning with some possible convection
making its way into central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks
tomorrow morning. Will carry a slight mention of pops for tomorrow
morning for this general area and a slightly better chance for
convection east of Highway 65 Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The upper level ridge of high pressure which has been in control
of our weather pattern will break down somewhat over us and allow
multiple shortwaves to ride down a west-northwest flow. A front
will meander into the region by Thursday and pretty much stall out
over the Missouri Ozarks or nearby through weekend.
There will be several rounds of convection and possible MCS
activity riding along that front through the area. The first chance
for widespread convection will be late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with another rounds developing Thursday night
into Friday morning and possibly another round Friday night into
Saturday morning. Timing and exact placement is difficult to
pinpoint down at this time. The ECMWF is most bullish than the
GFS and GEM but all have the same idea.
Will mention a slight risk for heavy rainfall and some flash
flooding threat for the end of the week with widespread one to
three inches likely with isolated higher amounts over the eastern
Ozarks and central Missouri areas.
Temperatures by the end of the week will be dependent on where the
stalled front is positioned and on going convection and cloud
cover...but generally cooler temperatures in the lower 80s for the
eastern half of the CWA and upper 80s for southeast Kansas and far
southwest Missouri for the Thursday through Saturday time frame.
The front finally lifts back to the north or washes out by early
next week with temperatures moderating back to near normal and
slight pops lingering in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Isolated shra/tsra should not affect
taf sites in the near term, so expect vfr conditions. A sfc trough
will move slowly south into central/southern MO during the taf
period veering winds to the west toward 15z. The trough may
trigger some scattered convection once again Tue, but coverage is
expected to be sparse, but maybe a little more than the past couple
of days.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
Convection is developing over the Mid-Missouri River Valley near
Omaha ahead of a weak vort max dropping in from the north. HRRR has
had a good handle on this convection and brings it into northwest MO
and toward the KC area later tonight toward sunrise. 00Z TOP sounding
indicates a deep enough unstable layer in the boundary layer that
shallow decoupling shouldn`t have much effect on MUCAPE values which
are progged to be around 1000 J/kg. Have therefore bumped PoPs up to
as high as 50 percent across northwest MO late tonight and into the
chance category as far south as the KC metro early Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
Tonight through Sunday: As of early this afternoon, a shallow
cumulus field has developed over much of the area. Some of this
activity is slightly more enhanced across eastern Kansas, and may
spawn a few light showers just west of the forecast area through
early evening. A decaying area of showers continues to push southward
over far southeast Nebraska, but is not expected to gain intensity or
coverage. Outside of far northwestern sections of the CWA, the
trajectory should keep most areas dry through this evening. Models
show a weak shortwave trough to move across the region late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Have continued a slight chance for
thunderstorms over the northwest quarter of the forecast area
tonight into tomorrow as this feature moves through, but most
locations should remain dry. Otherwise, similar temperatures are
expected on Sunday, with highs warming into the middle 80s to near 90
degrees.
Monday/Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft with continue over the region,
with maximum temperatures increasing daily with readings in the
upper 80s to middle 90s. Slight chances for thunderstorms will
continue for most sections each day as projected subtle upper
disturbances within the northwest flow move across the area.
Coverage of precipitation is not expected to be widespread nor
persistent for lengthy periods of time.
Wednesday through Saturday: The extended forecast features
increasing probabilities for precipitation with persistent northwest
flow aloft. The general pattern as advertised by numerical models
suggest several upper disturbances to move across the region during
the period, with one or more thunderstorm complexes to develop
upstream and move into portions of the area. Additional
thunderstorms may develop along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
oriented northwest-southeast, located over or just southeast of the
forecast area. While uncertainty remains with regards to the
specifics, the overall pattern provides increasing confidence for
measurable rainfall for many locations during the extended period,
especially during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. In addition,
temperatures will be cooler than earlier in the week with readings
closer to or slightly cooler than seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
Thunderstorms developing near Omaha appear poised to hold together
longer than previously anticipated and could affect the STJ and KC
areas toward sunrise. Chances for storms at these airports are
running around 30 to 40 percent, and therefore introduced VCTS to the
TAFs early Sunday morning. If this activity continues to hold
together prevailing or tempo groups will be needed. Any storms this
far south should be fairly weak in intensity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
834 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING FOCUSED AROUND GRABBING THE MODEL DATA
THAT MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SKEWING
POPS TOWARDS THAT DATA. ITS A THIRD DAY OF THE PICK YOUR FAVORITE
MESOSCALE MODEL GAME WHEN IT COMES TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. SO
FINDING THE MODELS THAT INITIALIZE QPF THE BEST WITH RADAR TRENDS
AND EXTRAPOLATING IT IS THE TECHNIQUE BEING USED. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER
TREASURE AND FERGUS COUNTY. IT ALSO SEEMS TO BRING THAT QPF UP
INTO THE CWA ON THE SAME VECTOR THAT RADAR IS SHOWING. THEREFORE
RAISED POPS ACROSS PETROLEUM... GARFIELD... AND PHILLIPS COUNTY
TROUGH 6AM BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. MESO WIND FIELDS ALSO SHOW THE
WIND SHIFTING BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS GUIDING THIS
CONVECTION. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS ANCHORING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH
INTO MONTANA. WEST OF THE RIDGE IS AN OPEN TROUGH HEADING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA. THIS WAVE HAS PICKED UP A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LEE-SIDE
CLOSED LOW IN SOUTHERN BC AND ALBERTA WILL ADD ENERGY TO THE
INCOMING WAVE. BY WEDNESDAY THE OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO
NORTH DAKOTA TO ALLOW THE RIDGE TO MOVE BACK OVER MONTANA...
CUTTING OFF MOST MOISTURE. THE OPEN WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CAP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL.
THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT...AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT STRONG...A
FEW EVENING STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THEREFORE SPC HAS PLACED A
SEE TEXT OVER US IN ITS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND NOON TODAY SHOW A WET SYSTEM OVER WYOMING
AND IDAHO THAT IS HEADING OUR WAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS TONIGHT.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. TRYING TO DETERMINE QPF AMOUNTS AT
ANY TIME IS LIKE TRYING TO NAIL JELLO TO THE WALL. BUT USING A
CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA...QPF AMOUNTS DO SUGGEST WETTING RAINS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HAVE AROUND ONE THIRD
TO ONE INCH STORM TOTAL QPF. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS IN PLACE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE YET POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...RAINS TAPER OFF QUICKLY AND CONDITIONS BECOME STABLE
FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. SO WILL TREND POPS
LOWER. SCT
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z MODELS DID NOT REVEAL ANYTHING NEW SO NO NEW CHANGES WERE
MADE. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND MODELS TEND NOT TO PERFORM WELL THIS
TIME OF YEAR DURING THIS PERIOD. DID TWEAK WINDS/TEMPS AND RH THROUGH
DAY 5 SLIGHTLY TO MODEL CONSENSUS. JAMBA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH INTO
MONTANA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECASTED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY THAT AT THE MOMENT STAYS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO KEEP NE MONTANA DRY. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
819 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.UPDATE...
EVENING STARTED WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PRECIP SHIELD MOVED VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...BUT ONCE IT GOT NEAR BILLINGS...IT DISSIPATED
FAIRLY RAPIDLY DUE TO DRIER AMBIENT AIR. NSSL WRF ARW
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS DID A VERY GOOD JOB OF PREDICTING THIS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR PUNCHING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS DESTABILIZATION IS CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SINGER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IN MONSOONAL FLOW. GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SCENARIO...NOT EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FILLING IN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY AS FORCING WITH A LEAD AND DEFINED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. MOST ALL OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED SHOWING MODERATE QG-FORCING SPREADING TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO WE BELIEVE THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT. RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA AND WE FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION HEADING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
LIKELY POPS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE QG-FORCING
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS MAINLY RELEGATED TO SOUTHEASTERN MT
ON TUE...AND IT WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
SHOULD NONETHELESS BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE 15 UTC SREF
SUPPORTS 300-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
UNDER 25 KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR...SUGGESTIVE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST 12 UTC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NCEP-
RUN CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...SUGGEST THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MAY BE LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT. THAT IS REASONABLE AS THAT AREA MAY HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE WITH RELATIVELY GREATER CAPE SUPPORTIVE
OF MORE CONCENTRATED UPDRAFTS /DEPENDING ON THICKNESS OF CLOUDS/.
AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SPC SSEO OUTPUT REVEALS MEAN
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES...AND THE 09 AND 15
UTC SREF RUNS SUGGESTED LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 0.50
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. DEEPER CONVECTION WILL YIELD LOCAL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THAT...BUT THE STATISTICAL EVIDENCE POINTS AWAY FROM A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE SREF DOES SUGGEST A HIGHER CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MT IN THE BAKER
AND EKALAKA AREAS LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT...MATCHING THE
SIGNALS SEEN IN THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT FOR A THREAT
OF MORE BONAFIDE HEAVY RAIN IN THAT PART OF SOUTHEASTERN MT.
BY WED...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST AND IS SUFFICIENT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT GENERALLY-SPEAKING WE FEEL THAT
THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE WITHOUT ANY DEFINED FORCING
ALOFT. HIGHS TUE WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH 80 F GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE /AND WE DID LOWER HIGHS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC CONSENSUS
OF RAW...2 M MODEL TEMPERATURE OUTPUT/...BUT THEY SHOULD WARM UP A
BIT AGAIN WED IF CLOUD COVER IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAT DAY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENERGY GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR WEAK LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY. LINGERING MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INVOLVED HERE SO NEED TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF POPS. QUESTION FOR ME IS THE DRY AIR PRESENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WORKING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOW WILL THIS WORK TO DRY
OUT THE MONSOON PLUME WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES? THIS
COULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION DESPITE THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST
OF BILLINGS. DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS STAYING BELOW 588DM. HEIGHTS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR WARMER WEATHER. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ/TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/079 059/084 060/087 061/088 061/090 062/090 062/090
75/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 21/U 11/B 11/B
LVM 054/078 052/083 053/084 053/086 053/087 054/090 053/089
75/T 43/T 33/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 064/081 059/086 058/088 059/089 059/091 060/091 061/092
76/T 52/T 22/T 22/T 21/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 067/080 062/082 060/087 063/090 063/091 063/092 064/092
67/T 62/T 22/T 22/T 21/U 11/B 11/U
4BQ 064/080 060/082 057/086 060/087 060/089 061/090 063/091
67/T 64/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/B 11/U
BHK 063/074 058/077 055/083 058/087 057/088 059/089 063/089
67/T 74/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 12/T 21/U
SHR 060/077 057/082 055/086 056/086 055/089 056/089 058/087
76/T 63/T 32/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONTINUED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN ONGOING. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ACROSS CANADA...COULD SEE A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE
FIRST OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE SECOND OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD ALSO BE SEEN
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY...A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SEEN FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ARCING DOWN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ROUGHLY FROM KCDR TO KLBF TO KGRI.
TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S MOST
PLACES...WHICH WERE AT OR NEAR FULL MIXING POTENTIAL. STARTING TO
SEE SOME CUMULUS POP UP ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AREAL COVERAGE IS
LOW DUE TO A LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR GOOD
SB INSTABILITY WITH THE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO END EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AS THERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORT ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA
CURRENTLY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE SD SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED...BUT THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SIGNALING SOME
STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN THIS AREA SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH IN THE MID LEVELS TO
KEEP LAPSE RATES VERY STEEP AND EVEN SLIGHT LIFT FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVES SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNALLY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUESTION TO IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND EXACTLY WHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE BEST
THE CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY EAST OF A VALENTINE TO
TAYLOR LINE. THIS ENDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES BEGIN TO SEE A SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO START SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE
SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO...THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORTWAVE WILL START SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT WHICH
WILL PLAY THE PART OF FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WINDS IN TURN SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ON MONDAY. CURRENT
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS LOOK TO INCREASE TO
11-13C BY 00Z TUESDAY SO SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR MONDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM
AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS NEBRASKA
IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...HOWEVER THE TIMING
LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NE/SD BORDER.
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AT THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AND WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STAYING
STEEP...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY ISN/T
GREAT...WITH MU VALUES BEING UP TO 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE INCREASING SO COULD GET A FEW CELLS TO ORGANIZE IN THESE
AREAS TO GET A FEW STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER RATIOS WILL BE
HIGHER WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
FORM. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SOUTH THURSDAY THE TRAILING END
OF THE FRONT BACKS WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. IF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AS SHOWN...A
PREVAILING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD INCREASE THE MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR INCREASED CLOUDS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY LINGERS AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL
...GOING FORWARD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...AND 70S IN THE NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL. MODEL
CONSENSUS DIVERGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SUPERBLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS USED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR KLBF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
AREA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THINK COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL SO NO
PREVAILING MENTION AT THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE KVTN TERMINAL SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR A SLOW SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING ON
MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...FROM LAKE MCCONAUGHY DOWNSTREAM TO
BRADY...IRRIGATION RELEASES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP UP THE FLOWS WITH
THE CURRENT STAGE AT THE NORTH PLATTE GAGE AT 5.4 FEET. THE RIVER
FORECAST FOR THE NORTH PLATTE GAGE...NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 BRIDGE...IS
FOR FLOWS TO REMAIN AROUND 5.5 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DAILY WHERE SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...BROOKS
HYDROLOGY...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
125 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
STARTING TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUE...HOWEVER A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SRN
CAL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING NORTH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW HAS NOT CHANGED ANYTHING FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS YET...THUS THE EFFECTIVE WEATHER REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES HAVE
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...WITH MORE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO COOL
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO BE REPORTED IN THE EASTERN
ZONES...WHERE HIGHEST DEW PTS ARE LOCATED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
CONTINUING TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
MID LEVELS SO THERE IS CONCERN THAT EVEN WHEN REACHING PEAK
HEATING AND FULL MIXING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THAT THERE WON/T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND NAM INDICATE AN INCREASE IN 700-600MB MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE 03.16Z HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SO...DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 90 WITH
SOME LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHEAST WYOMING...SHOULD BE
MOVING OVERHEAD AND ADD TO THE LIFT. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
MARGINAL...AS IS CAPE...HOWEVER SEEING WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
ONCE WE BEGIN TO COOL THIS EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SKIES SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S...LOCALLY AN UPPER 50 READING POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MID INTO LATE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
AREA. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. MEANWHILE
EASTERLY WINDS AND POOLING MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP IT COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM 80
TO 85 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT...AND THEN
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL ADVERTISED
TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOKING PRETTY DECENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER HIGHS IN THE
80S INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS ONLY UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS KANSAS INTO LATE WEEK...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY...AS STORMS FIRE ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY HELPING TO
KEEP THE NIGHTS WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR KLBF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
AREA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THINK COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL SO NO
PREVAILING MENTION AT THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE KVTN TERMINAL SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR A SLOW SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING ON
MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA AS THEY DIVE INTO THE TROUGH. AT
19Z...NOTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. 02.12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED
700MB TEMPERATURES OF 9C AND 8C AT KUNR AND KLBF RESPECTIVELY...WITH
5C AND 6C AT KABR AND KOAX. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH THE
AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...THE WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS
AIR IS NOT WARM ENOUGH TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KVTN WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH THEN WEST /TO AROUND KBBW THROUGH KLBF AND
KOGA. STRONG HEATING AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S HAS CREATED DEEP MIXING UP TO 600MB AND WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WHERE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES EXIST. MU CAPES ARE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER ONGOING CONVECTION SO ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN VERY UNORGANIZED THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...SO WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CUTS OFF THE ENERGY INTO THE STORMS. THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE PRECIPITATION GENERALLY STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ARC
FROM THE LOW TO KTIF TO KAIA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE DONE BY 06Z.
THE RAP AND THE NAM DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN ISOLATED STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET
ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS...BUT FEEL IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND NO REAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY A
CONCERN.
AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONGER LIFT AHEAD OF IT...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THIS IS REAL STRONG COULD GET MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT. IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...ONE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST IT WILL BE. CURRENT
SUITE OF MODELS SHOW MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST SKIRT THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY KEEPS IT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THEN FOR SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SLIGHTLY BUT NOT MUCH SO STILL LOOKING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS...MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AND WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING TO NEAR
650MB. ALSO...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR MID AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE THE LIFT IN THE
AREA. AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE CAUSED
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEE NO REASON WHY IT WON/T OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT...WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD AS UPPER LOW
OVER SERN CANADA ALSO SHIFTS EWD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH
ALLOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY TO BACK WWD INTO THE NERN PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...LEE SIDE LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEBRASKA. THE ULTIMATE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY TO THE PRECIPITATION
FCST THROUGH THE WEEK AND IS DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THIS PLACEMENT BY MONDAY THOUGH DIFFER BEYOND. THE NRN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SUNDAY EVE WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE DEEP
LAYER LIFT AND A BETTER CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NEB SUNDAY
EVE. HOWEVER...UPPER NW FLOW HAS GENERATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CURRENT PATTERN DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY
EVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...AND THEREFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FCST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE ALLOWS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FURTHER WEST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF THE NOCTURNAL HIGH
PLAINS LLJ WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE RAPID COOLING OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EVENING COMPARED TO A MORE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE FURTHER EAST. THIS LLJ ALSO STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER PV ANOMALIES ROUNDING THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC CYCLOGENESIS FAVORING THE WY/CO FRONT RANGE AND WRN HIGH PLAINS
BY MID WEEK. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ON INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG FURTHER SWD
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
NEBRASKA DURING MID WEEK. THE LLJ WILL BE EFFICIENT AT SUPPLYING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AREA AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH. THE RESULT IS PW VALUES APPROACHING +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NEARING
1.75 INCHES BY THU. IN ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS E OF
THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ERN NEB EARLY IN THE WEEK
BUT SHIFTS SWWD BY WED/THU TIME FRAME AS DOES THE BOUNDARY. THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF BOUNDARY LOCATION FROM DAY TO DAY WILL BE
DETERMINED LARGELY BY EACH ITERATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
MESOSCALE COLD POOL AUGMENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY TAKES
PLACE...MAKING SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DIFFICULT. IN GENERAL...THE DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY MID
WEEK SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL LOWER TO BELOW
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER LESSENS WITH LOWS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AROUND ONL...WILL
DISSIPATE BY 10Z. AFTER THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1SM.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE NORTH
AND EAST OF A VTN-TIF-BBW LINE.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING...THEY WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSRA OVER FAR SW NM JUST AROUND 06Z
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SLOWLY TRACK NORTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT
KGUP AFTER DAYBREAK GIVEN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN
MODELS....BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING AND HAVE TARGETED
14Z-15Z AS FIRST GUESS. ELSEWHERE... WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME THAT HAD BEEN
IN PLACE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN HAS YIELDED SOME VERY
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLVS AS WELL AS NEAR KROW PAST FEW HOURS. WILL
NOT INCLUDE A VC PLACEHOLDER AT EITHER SITE THOUGH VFR MID LEVEL
CIGS MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY KROW.
OTHERWISE...TRENDED KFMN...KSAF AND ABQ AREA TERMINAL FORECASTS TO
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFT 12Z BEFORE
DIURNAL TRENDS PREDOMINATE AFTER 18Z. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUN PM WILL
AGAIN BE ACROSS THE WEST... WITH A MORE ACTIVE ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE HEAVIER STORMS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE FOCUS SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...AND LAPS SHOWING THE
EAST REMAINING STABLE SO FAR. CELLS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MOST NOTABLY OVER WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY TO
THE GALLUP AREA...BUT LESS ACTIVE OVERALL COMPARED TO THIS TIME THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PWATS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE
CHANGE FROM FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSITIONING AS THE
WEAK UPPER LOW PREPARES TO MOVE NORTH INTO ARIZONA. INITIAL THOUGHTS
WERE THAT THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE NEEDED TO BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD AND SOMEWHAT EASTWARD FOR TONIGHT...BUT 12Z LOCAL
WRF...NAM AND HRRR DON/T SUPPORT THAT IDEA AND ARE RATHER SPARSE
LOOKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. THEREFORE DECIDED TO LET THE CURRENT
WATCH RIDE...WHERE MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON/S ECHOS EXIST SO FAR.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVER THAT AREA...HOWEVER STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS SUGGEST THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY QUIET. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWEST TO NE OVER NEW
MEXICO...PUTTING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND ALLOWING THEM TO DRIFT OFF THE MTS INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD STILL
FEATURES A SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO DRY
OUT SOME...AND A DECREASE OVERALL IN CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FINALLY EXPERIENCE A REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF AUGUST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WET AND ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...KEEPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAINFALL HAVE BEEN SCATTERED EACH DAY OVER THE
PAST WEEK...BUT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PLAINS HAVE SEEN
PRECIPITATION ON OCCASION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART...ONLY GETTING SLIGHTLY BREEZY IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
GAPS/CANYONS THIS EVENING...AND OF COURSE GUSTY WITH ANY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE IN
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SUNDAY.
THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LAY
OVER OR TOPPLE TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. STORMS WILL ALSO PERIODICALLY BE
FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS. SOME LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
ALLOW MODERATE BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERALL HUMIDITY TRENDS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH NIGHT/MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
WETTING RAIN. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING DAYTIME HUMIDITY FAIRLY ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DAY-TO-DAY DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ505-506-508-509-520.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HURRICANE BERTHA WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY THEN REMAINED STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW MOVING OFFSHORE AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN ON LAND IN OUR CENTRAL CWA. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN
LOWERING POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE COAST MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE APPRECIABLY LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND...LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WELL
INLAND LATER. FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE...AS HURRICANE BERTHA LIFTS NE WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NC COAST. ONLY SIG IMPACTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE INCREASED
ROUGH SURF AND ENHANCED RIP CURRENT THREAT. THINK WE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND A PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST EARLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE...LIKELY MUCH MORE SCATTERED THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IF SPOTS GET SOME SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOST WELCOME DRIER PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING MIDWEEK AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AS
HURRICANE BERTHA PASSES WELL OFF THE COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AFTER THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LINGERING INTO TUE
EVE, HAVE REMOVED POPS THRU WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 DEGS AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IN MILD WSW
FLOW.
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SHARP
UPPER TROF DROPS THRU THE NE STATES AND PROPELS A SFC FRONT THRU THE
AREA. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONCENSUS
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A LATER ARRIVAL AND MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
THERE. HIGHS OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID
80S GIVEN THE EARLIER FROPA. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A MAINLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN IN THE DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT BUT CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BNDRY MAY POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLY BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS LATE WED NIGHT AND INTO THU WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WITH FROPA COINCIDING WITH DIURNAL
HEATING.
FOR THE LATE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND THE FORECAST BECOMES
EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN MOVING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS IT COMES UNDER PARALLELING STEERING
FLOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BNDRY AS WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FEEDS WEAK UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE SE STATES.
TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE DIFFICULT AS THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW HAVE KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS. LATER MODELS RUNS SHOULD HELP
SORT OUT FORECAST DETAILS BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE BLO
NORMAL WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY...AGAIN A MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY VFR WELL INLAND AT KPGV AND KISO WITH MVFR CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH A FEW PATCHY SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE VERY WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WILL AGAIN
FORECAST MVFR AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING
TO VFR WITH BETTER MIXING BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPO SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP THAT MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY. ALSO MAY SEE SOME FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVER WET GROUND. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING MIDWEEK WITH PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WED AND INTO EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT THEN
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THU WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR FOR THE LATE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS THRU SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY SE WINDS BECOMING E AND REMAINING 10 TO 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET INITIALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET LESS AS 12-13 SECOND SWELL ENERGY FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE BERTHA AFFECTS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST THEN
SPREADS SOUTH LATE. EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK 6-9FT TUE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LESS THAN 15KT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONE BERTHA WELL OFF OF THE COAST WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SW
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE MARINE AREA ON THURSDAY. POSTFRONTAL N/NE
FLOW AT 15 KTS OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOMES EAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
SETTLES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT AGAIN
IN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WEDNESDAY THEN VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 2-3 FT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWS SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
TENNESSEE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY WILL ACT AS AN ERODING MECHANISM TO BEGIN BREAKING UP THE
CAD WEDGE...AT LEAST THE TRIAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TOUGH
BUT THE RAP HAS IT MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE TRIAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A SUBSEQUENT DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEREFORE
EXPECTING A SIMILAR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP TO WHAT THE RADAR IS
SHOWING NOW WHICH IS A VERY DEFINITIVE LINE OF PRECIP IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WEST OF I-95. THAT BEING SAID...THE
TRIANGLE AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ONLY THE NW PIEDMONT HAVING A REAL CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY WITH AN ABNORMAL
DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NW AND COOLEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. IF THE CAD BREAKS DOWN...COULD EASILY SEE LOWER 80S IN
THE TRIAD WITH POSSIBLY ONLY MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
SAMPSON COUNTY BEING MONITORED AT THIS TIME FOR POTENTIAL URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. KLTX RADAR INDICATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
OF RAIN FALLEN IN THIS LOCATION ALREADY WITH SOME FURTHER TRAINING
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST...SHEAR VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BUT ARE STILL AT
A MODEST 25 KTS. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE EXTENSIVE OVERCAST AND
LACK OF INSOLATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
IF SOME CLEARING DOES OCCUR IN THE TRIAD...CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY WORK OUT WELL. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN PRECIPIATION AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD
OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM SUNDAY...
STILL A DECENT THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN PERIPHERY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITHIN THE MOISTURE
PLUME ONLY DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD. PLAN TO HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING TO A SMALL CHANCE IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN-OFF...EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 80S. A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING NEWD JUST OFFSHORE WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN...SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGHER PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN THOUGH... WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING/BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
TUESDAY... WITH EVEN A LESSER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY (BEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE MORE INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION... RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO 1415-1430
METER RANGE... HIGHEST WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS
WILL YIELD A CONTINUED WARMING TREND... WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY... WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON WEDNESDAY (WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S SOUTH). LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH SOME LOWER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL TREND CLOSER TO WPC... WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST ECMWF ALLOWING THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER... LEADING TO CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW
WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC... HIGHS IN THE 80S... LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SIGHTS COMING IN WITH MVFR CEILINGS BUT THE
TRIAD IS STARTING TO SCATTER OUT A BIT AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TRIAD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST BUT EVEN
THE EAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK OUT AS THE AFTERNOON GOES
ON...IF ONLY BRIEFLY. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME
POTENTIAL CLEARING...DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE AND
LIFR CEILINGS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 6Z IN THE EAST AND MAY HOLD OFF TO NEAR 9Z IN THE WEST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOR THE MOST
PART PRECIPIATION SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE
TAKEN IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT IT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AGAIN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM: A LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY LIFT OUT...LEADING TO A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWS SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
TENNESSEE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY WILL ACT AS AN ERODING MECHANISM TO BEGIN BREAKING UP THE
CAD WEDGE...AT LEAST THE TRIAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TOUGH
BUT THE RAP HAS IT MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE TRIAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A SUBSEQUENT DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEREFORE
EXPECTING A SIMILAR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP TO WHAT THE RADAR IS
SHOWING NOW WHICH IS A VERY DEFINITIVE LINE OF PRECIP IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WEST OF I-95. THAT BEING SAID...THE
TRIANGLE AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ONLY THE NW PIEDMONT HAVING A REAL CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY WITH AN ABNORMAL
DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NW AND COOLEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. IF THE CAD BREAKS DOWN...COULD EASILY SEE LOWER 80S IN
THE TRIAD WITH POSSIBLY ONLY MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
SAMPSON COUNTY BEING MONITORED AT THIS TIME FOR POTENTIAL URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. KLTX RADAR INDICATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
OF RAIN FALLEN IN THIS LOCATION ALREADY WITH SOME FURTHER TRAINING
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST...SHEAR VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BUT ARE STILL AT
A MODEST 25 KTS. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE EXTENSIVE OVERCAST AND
LACK OF INSOLATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
IF SOME CLEARING DOES OCCUR IN THE TRIAD...CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY WORK OUT WELL. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN PRECIPIATION AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD
OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM SUNDAY...
STILL A DECENT THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN PERIPHERY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITHIN THE MOISTURE
PLUME ONLY DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD. PLAN TO HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING TO A SMALL CHANCE IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN-OFF...EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 80S. A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING NEWD JUST OFFSHORE WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN...SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGHER PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN THOUGH... WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING/BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
TUESDAY... WITH EVEN A LESSER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY (BEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE MORE INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION... RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO 1415-1430
METER RANGE... HIGHEST WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS
WILL YIELD A CONTINUED WARMING TREND... WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY... WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON WEDNESDAY (WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S SOUTH). LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH SOME LOWER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL TREND CLOSER TO WPC... WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST ECMWF ALLOWING THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER... LEADING TO CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW
WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC... HIGHS IN THE 80S... LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM SUNDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH APPRECIABLY AS YOU GO FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE
SURFACE...AIDING TO DIMINISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KINT AND KGSO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND IFR/LIFR FOG APPEARS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KRDU...KGSO AND KINT BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY WHILE
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT KFAY AND KRWI WHERE A RISK OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN.
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1021 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWS SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
TENNESSEE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY WILL ACT AS AN ERODING MECHANISM TO BEGIN BREAKING UP THE
CAD WEDGE...AT LEAST THE TRIAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TOUGH
BUT THE RAP HAS IT MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE TRIAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A SUBSEQUENT DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEREFORE
EXPECTING A SIMILAR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIP TO WHAT THE RADAR IS
SHOWING NOW WHICH IS A VERY DEFINITIVE LINE OF PRECIP IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WEST OF I-95. THAT BEING SAID...THE
TRIANGLE AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ONLY THE NW PIEDMONT HAVING A REAL CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY WITH AN ABNORMAL
DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NW AND COOLEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. IF THE CAD BREAKS DOWN...COULD EASILY SEE LOWER 80S IN
THE TRIAD WITH POSSIBLY ONLY MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
SAMPSON COUNTY BEING MONITORED AT THIS TIME FOR POTENTIAL URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. KLTX RADAR INDICATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
OF RAIN FALLEN IN THIS LOCATION ALREADY WITH SOME FURTHER TRAINING
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST...SHEAR VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BUT ARE STILL AT
A MODEST 25 KTS. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE EXTENSIVE OVERCAST AND
LACK OF INSOLATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
IF SOME CLEARING DOES OCCUR IN THE TRIAD...CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY WORK OUT WELL. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN PRECIPIATION AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD
OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM SUNDAY...
STILL A DECENT THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN PERIPHERY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITHIN THE MOISTURE
PLUME ONLY DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD. PLAN TO HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING TO A SMALL CHANCE IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN-OFF...EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 80S. A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING NEWD JUST OFFSHORE WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN...SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGHER PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN THOUGH... WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING/BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
TUESDAY... WITH EVEN A LESSER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY (BEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE MORE INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION... RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO 1415-1430
METER RANGE... HIGHEST WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS
WILL YIELD A CONTINUED WARMING TREND... WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY... WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON WEDNESDAY (WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S SOUTH). LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH SOME LOWER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL TREND CLOSER TO WPC... WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST ECMWF ALLOWING THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER... LEADING TO CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW
WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC... HIGHS IN THE 80S... LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM SUNDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH APPRECIABLY AS YOU GO FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE
SURFACE...AIDING TO DIMINISH LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KINT AND KGSO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND IFR/LIFR FOG APPEARS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KRDU...KGSO AND KINT BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY WHILE
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT KFAY AND KRWI WHERE A RISK OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN.
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ028-043-078-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE OR POSSIBLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHWARD BY THE AREA. BERTHA WILL REMAIN MUCH TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
ANY DIRECT IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS THEN SLATED FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...A HEAVY BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED INLAND THIS MORNING. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT IN AN
AREA OF 850-500MB LAYER RH GREATER THAN 95% IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
BUT SO IS AN AREA OF 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALL OF THIS IS BEING
AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
2 TO 2.5 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. GFS HAS THE LOCATION OF
THESE FEATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO REALITY AND SHOWS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING OF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
MIDDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THE SETUP REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE COAST...AS IT DID
YESTERDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRY TO MOVE INLAND TODAY
AND THINK IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE COAST IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY. STORM MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AROUND 7 KT...AND WARM LAYER REMAINS QUITE DEEP AROUND 15K
FT. FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO WITH
HIGHS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MONDAYS FORECAST WILL NOW HINGE UPON WHAT MAY
END UP BEING A COMPLEX (AND POORLY SAMPLED) INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
CIRCULATIONS OFF THE EAST COAST...BERTHA AND TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN
THE BAHAMAS. WRF SCORED A BIT OF A COUP WHEN IT STARTED SHOWING THIS
LAST NIGHT. THE QUESTION THAT NOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN...WHICH
CIRCULATION BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE? WRF MAINTAINS THAT IT WILL BE
THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND THAT THE COAST IS IN FOR QUITE A RAINSTORM
FOLLOWING A WET WEEKEND AND OUR CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED. BERTHA CURRENTLY UNDERGOING LAND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA...AND SEEMINGLY MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION...AND SO RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE WRF IS A BIT
EXTREME. GFS LAST NIGHT PRETTY MUCH IGNORED THE BAHAMA LOW BUT NOW
GIVES IT AN IDENTITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SEEMINGLY PLAUSIBLY
KEEPING BERTHA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE GFS
IS IT SEEMS ERRONEOUSLY SLOW WITH THE WESTERN LOW AND SHOWS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE QPF FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT ONLY OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN BUT ALSO POSSIBLY TAPPING SOME MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL
STORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STILL BE PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE DECLINE AND THE AREA MAY START TO SEE SOME MORE BREAKS OF
SUN THAN IT HAS RECENTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. NEARLY ZONAL/WESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW LOCALLY AROUND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS IN THE NORTHEAST TO KEEP
THINGS FAIRLY DRY. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS ON THURSDAY DRIVING A LATE
DAY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND EVEN NO APPRECIABLE INFLUX OF GULF OR ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ITS HARD TO IMAGINE HOW IT BRINGS AN
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. AS IT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH IT
WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO SAY HOW
MUCH PENDING HOW CLOUDY IT GETS VS THE ACTUAL AIRMASS CHANGE/COOL
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...STALLED FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE COAST ALL MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN IFR AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIP MAY MOVE
INLAND FROM THE COAST BY NOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL RETURN DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY LATE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGH STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND TODAY. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH COVERAGE DECREASING. SEAS WILL RUN 3
FT...MAINLY AS SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE...THOUGH 4 FT IS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PRETTY DIFFICULT FORECAST ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY A FUNCTION OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BERTHA AND A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
CONSIDERABLY AS TO HOW THESE TWO WILL INTERACT AND WHICH ONE WILL
END UP BECOMING A DOMINANT CIRCULATION AS THEY BOTH PASS NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR LATITUDE ON MONDAY. BERTHA CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
HISPANIOLA FURTHER COMPLICATING THE ISSUE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT LOCALLY EITHER WAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF
THESE WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MAGNITUDE OF SEAS REALIZED
WILL BE MODULATED BY WHICH SYSTEM TAKES OVER. SHOULD IT BE BERTHA
THEN THE CURRENT FCST APPLIES. SHOULD THE WESTWARD WAVE TAKE OVER
THEN WINDS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER IN SPEED AND CHANGE MORE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FCST ZONES EXPERIENCE MORE CLOSED ISOBARS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS GETTING TOUGH TO RULE OUT ESP FOR NRN ZONES BUT THERE IS
JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO RAISE AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY WINDS
SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEMS ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SUCH A TURN TO
OFFSHORE OFTEN ACTS TO DIMINISH NEARSHORE SEAS AS LANDMASS WAVE
SHADOWING TAKES OVER BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BACKSWELL TO MINIMIZE
THIS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE BRUNSWICK WATERS
WHERE THERE WILL NOT ONLY BE WESTERLY SHADOWING OF WIND WAVES BUT
ALSO A SWELL SHADOWING FROM CAPE FEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS TAKES SHAPE ON
WEDNESDAY YIELDING A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF FAIRLY `SEASONABLE`
SPEED. SEAS NORMALLY 2 TO 3 FT IN SUCH A SETUP BUT A REMNANT
EASTERLY SWELL MAY STILL BE GIVING RISE TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVES OVER
NRN ZONES. THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL THE GRADIENT WILL
EASE AND THE FLOW MAY BACK TO SRLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-
033-039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE OR POSSIBLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHWARD BY THE AREA. BERTHA WILL REMAIN MUCH TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR
ANY DIRECT IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS THEN SLATED FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LATEST WRINKLE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAHAMAS. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH AT
AROUND 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE NHC SAYS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ONLY GIVES IT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
FORMATION OUT THROUGH 5 DAYS...NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS
HINT AT AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE JUST OFFSHORE THAT COULD MARKEDLY
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ALSO IN
THIS CAMP WITH THEIR LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IF THIS SCENARIO
COME TO PASS...WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN ANY CASE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS..SO WILL BE KEEPING THE RESENT
FLOOD WATCH UP INTO THE NEAR TERM. A PERSISTENT AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER OUR NC AND SC COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FRONT WAVERING BACK
AND FORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF FRONT PLACEMENT IS
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL SPREAD IN ITS MOTION. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER EASTERN CONUS
AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUND ITS BASE AND MOVE NE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND P/W VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALL ELEMENTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH THE ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUING WELL INTO
TODAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WOEFULLY POOR LATELY IN CAPTURING THE UNUSUALLY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. SO...WILL GO SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER GUIDANCE BY LIMITING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S FOR TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
HOVER AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MONDAYS FORECAST WILL NOW HINGE UPON WHAT MAY
END UP BEING A COMPLEX (AND POORLY SAMPLED) INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
CIRCULATIONS OFF THE EAST COAST...BERTHA AND TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN
THE BAHAMAS. WRF SCORED A BIT OF A COUP WHEN IT STARTED SHOWING THIS
LAST NIGHT. THE QUESTION THAT NOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN...WHICH
CIRCULATION BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE? WRF MAINTAINS THAT IT WILL BE
THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND THAT THE COAST IS IN FOR QUITE A RAINSTORM
FOLLOWING A WET WEEKEND AND OUR CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED. BERTHA CURRENTLY UNDERGOING LAND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA...AND SEEMINGLY MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION...AND SO RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE WRF IS A BIT
EXTREME. GFS LAST NIGHT PRETTY MUCH IGNORED THE BAHAMA LOW BUT NOW
GIVES IT AN IDENTITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SEEMINGLY PLAUSIBLY
KEEPING BERTHA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE GFS
IS IT SEEMS ERRONEOUSLY SLOW WITH THE WESTERN LOW AND SHOWS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE QPF FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT ONLY OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN BUT ALSO POSSIBLY TAPPING SOME MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL
STORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STILL BE PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE DECLINE AND THE AREA MAY START TO SEE SOME MORE BREAKS OF
SUN THAN IT HAS RECENTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. NEARLY ZONAL/WESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW LOCALLY AROUND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS IN THE NORTHEAST TO KEEP
THINGS FAIRLY DRY. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS ON THURSDAY DRIVING A LATE
DAY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND EVEN NO APPRECIABLE INFLUX OF GULF OR ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ITS HARD TO IMAGINE HOW IT BRINGS AN
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. AS IT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH IT
WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO SAY HOW
MUCH PENDING HOW CLOUDY IT GETS VS THE ACTUAL AIRMASS CHANGE/COOL
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...STALLED FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE COAST ALL MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN IFR AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIP MAY MOVE
INLAND FROM THE COAST BY NOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL RETURN DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY LATE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AN INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE OVER THE WATERS IS
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEAS IN THE 3 FT RANGE. A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN INLAND OR JUST NEAR THE COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXPECT
EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS AS A
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PRETTY DIFFICULT FORECAST ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY A FUNCTION OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BERTHA AND A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
CONSIDERABLY AS TO HOW THESE TWO WILL INTERACT AND WHICH ONE WILL
END UP BECOMING A DOMINANT CIRCULATION AS THEY BOTH PASS NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR LATITUDE ON MONDAY. BERTHA CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
HISPANIOLA FURTHER COMPLICATING THE ISSUE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT LOCALLY EITHER WAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF
THESE WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MAGNITUDE OF SEAS REALIZED
WILL BE MODULATED BY WHICH SYSTEM TAKES OVER. SHOULD IT BE BERTHA
THEN THE CURRENT FCST APPLIES. SHOULD THE WESTWARD WAVE TAKE OVER
THEN WINDS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER IN SPEED AND CHANGE MORE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FCST ZONES EXPERIENCE MORE CLOSED ISOBARS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS GETTING TOUGH TO RULE OUT ESP FOR NRN ZONES BUT THERE IS
JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO RAISE AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY WINDS
SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEMS ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SUCH A TURN TO
OFFSHORE OFTEN ACTS TO DIMINISH NEARSHORE SEAS AS LANDMASS WAVE
SHADOWING TAKES OVER BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BACKSWELL TO MINIMIZE
THIS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE BRUNSWICK WATERS
WHERE THERE WILL NOT ONLY BE WESTERLY SHADOWING OF WIND WAVES BUT
ALSO A SWELL SHADOWING FROM CAPE FEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS TAKES SHAPE ON
WEDNESDAY YIELDING A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF FAIRLY `SEASONABLE`
SPEED. SEAS NORMALLY 2 TO 3 FT IN SUCH A SETUP BUT A REMNANT
EASTERLY SWELL MAY STILL BE GIVING RISE TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVES OVER
NRN ZONES. THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL THE GRADIENT WILL
EASE AND THE FLOW MAY BACK TO SRLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVERTOPPING A RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MAY INHIBIT DIABATIC FORCING FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED FOR THE MOST
PART...KEEPING THE STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBILITIES LOW. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE FORECAST AS IS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ONLY REMOVED MORNING FOG FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
FOLLOWING THE 08 AND 09 UTC HRRR AND 06 UTC NAM...THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 19-20 UTC. GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD COVER SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
LIMITED. THEREAFTER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 00 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS FOR A SECOND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
TO INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROPAGATE AGAIN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
GIVEN A LIKELY ARRIVAL NEARING TO AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THIS SECOND ROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WAS KEEPING THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN MONTANA SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP
OF SHORTWAVES TONIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CAPE VALUES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000
J/KG OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER
40 KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ASSESSMENT
WAS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WAS MARGINAL AND FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRAPHICAL FORECAST.
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG...AND WILL KEEP
THIS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PACKAGE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
RATHER NORMAL SENSIBLE SUMMER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...CONTAINING WITHIN IT MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY
IMPULSES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL FIELDS ARE WITHIN ONE
AND A HALF STANDARD DEVIATIONS OR LESS OF NORMAL...SUGGESTING RATHER
AVERAGE EARLY AUGUST WEATHER WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES...AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS HAVE JUST NOW ENDED OVER KDIK.
THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD IMPACT KBIS BETWEEN
20Z-22Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS...AND COULD BE INTO KJMS BY 23Z.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER BY THE TIME THEY REACH KJMS
AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
941 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVERTOPPING A RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MAY INHIBIT DIABATIC FORCING FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED FOR THE MOST
PART...KEEPING THE STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBILITIES LOW. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE FORECAST AS IS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ONLY REMOVED MORNING FOG FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
FOLLOWING THE 08 AND 09 UTC HRRR AND 06 UTC NAM...THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 19-20 UTC. GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD COVER SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
LIMITED. THEREAFTER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 00 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS FOR A SECOND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
TO INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROPAGATE AGAIN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
GIVEN A LIKELY ARRIVAL NEARING TO AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THIS SECOND ROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WAS KEEPING THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN MONTANA SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP
OF SHORTWAVES TONIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CAPE VALUES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000
J/KG OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER
40 KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ASSESSMENT
WAS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WAS MARGINAL AND FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRAPHICAL FORECAST.
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG...AND WILL KEEP
THIS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PACKAGE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
RATHER NORMAL SENSIBLE SUMMER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...CONTAINING WITHIN IT MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY
IMPULSES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL FIELDS ARE WITHIN ONE
AND A HALF STANDARD DEVIATIONS OR LESS OF NORMAL...SUGGESTING RATHER
AVERAGE EARLY AUGUST WEATHER WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES...AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EARLY THIS
MORNING FOG WITH MVFR AND IFR VSBYS AT KDIK...AND MVFR VSBYS AT
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD MOVE INTO KISN AFT 13Z...WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFT
16-18Z AT KMOT/KDIK/KBIS...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT AT KJMS. VCTS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
FOLLOWING THE 08 AND 09 UTC HRRR AND 06 UTC NAM...THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 19-20 UTC. GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD COVER SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
LIMITED. THEREAFTER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 00 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS FOR A SECOND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
TO INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROPAGATE AGAIN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
GIVEN A LIKELY ARRIVAL NEARING TO AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THIS SECOND ROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WAS KEEPING THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN MONTANA SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP
OF SHORTWAVES TONIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CAPE VALUES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000
J/KG OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER
40 KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ASSESSMENT
WAS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WAS MARGINAL AND FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRAPHICAL FORECAST.
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG...AND WILL KEEP
THIS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PACKAGE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
RATHER NORMAL SENSIBLE SUMMER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...CONTAINING WITHIN IT MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY
IMPULSES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL FIELDS ARE WITHIN ONE
AND A HALF STANDARD DEVIATIONS OR LESS OF NORMAL...SUGGESTING RATHER
AVERAGE EARLY AUGUST WEATHER WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES...AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EARLY THIS
MORNING FOG WITH MVFR AND IFR VSBYS AT KDIK...AND MVFR VSBYS AT
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD MOVE INTO KISN AFT 13Z...WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFT
16-18Z AT KMOT/KDIK/KBIS...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT AT KJMS. VCTS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE WEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP A LITTLE ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE
LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS PRECIP REACHING KCLE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FOG TO THE KMFD AREA.
PREVIOUS...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA AS A VORT MAX ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD WEST. HAVE PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
WESTWARD TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS OVER NE OH AND NW
PA. THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY THUNDER GIVEN THE LACK OF CAPE. THE
PRECIP SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER BY 00Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN YESTERDAY AND DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE IN THE FAR WEST TODAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. THAT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
80S. THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WILL BE LUCKY TO GET INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL ENJOY A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT PRECIP JUST NORTH OF KTOL TOMORROW EVENING.
WILL PUT A 20 POP IN FOR A FEW HOURS FOR THAT AREA BUT NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RAMP UP ON TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY WORDING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY. STILL GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT
STALLING OUT WITH CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND STICK WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD
BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. YDY THE ECMWF MOVED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...NOW KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FORCING THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. NOW BOTH MODELS SOLUTION SIMILAR...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY FORECAST WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EASTERN 2/3 FORECAST AREA SHROUDED BY SCATTERED SHRA...BR AND
STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OHIO DRIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN BR AND STRATUS...AGAIN TUESDAY
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
625 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE WEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP A LITTLE ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE
LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS PRECIP REACHING KCLE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FOG TO THE KMFD AREA.
PREVIOUS...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA AS A VORT MAX ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD WEST. HAVE PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
WESTWARD TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS OVER NE OH AND NW
PA. THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY THUNDER GIVEN THE LACK OF CAPE. THE
PRECIP SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER BY 00Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN YESTERDAY AND DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE IN THE FAR WEST TODAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. THAT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
80S. THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WILL BE LUCKY TO GET INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL ENJOY A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT PRECIP JUST NORTH OF KTOL TOMORROW EVENING.
WILL PUT A 20 POP IN FOR A FEW HOURS FOR THAT AREA BUT NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RAMP UP ON TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY WORDING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WILL SEE
SOME LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY. STILL GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT
STALLING OUT WITH CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND STICK WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD
BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. YDY THE ECMWF MOVED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...NOW KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FORCING THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. NOW BOTH MODELS SOLUTION SIMILAR...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY FORECAST WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AS SHORT WAVE DRIFTS EAST. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER LIKELY SEE MVFR BR WITH AREAS OF IFR
FOG...POTENTIALLY LI FR. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF MID MORNING AND
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE LAKE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...RICH MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS CROSSED OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE. RADAR INDICATES SOME RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER
1.50 INCHES. IF, OR WHEN, THIS HEAVY RAIN CROSSES A RECENT BURN
AREA LOCAL FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE
MOISTURE MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AND CENTRAL
SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAFS...SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
VISIBILITY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE TERMINALS ARE NOT HAVING ANY
RESTRICTIONS. IFR CIGS IN STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE COAST (INCLUDING
KOTH) TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE TO NEAR THE
BEACHES BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE VFR
OUTSIDE STORMS, BUT STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. JBL
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT 4 AUG 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS BEYOND 10NM FROM SHORE AND SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH. THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. JBL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIN CIRRUS AND WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS
BEEN INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SISKIYOU
COUNTY NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE CASCADES AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THERE TOO AS THE CAP ERODES. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR A LOT OF LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AND AS A RESULT,
WE ARE MAINTAINING THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT (2AM PDT). WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR TAHOE, THE FLOW ALOFT IS
FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, SO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER A BROAD AREA ARE
1.00-1.25 INCHES, SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL.
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS, SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY PRESENT
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY TO AREAS THAT HAVE PREVIOUSLY
BURNED. WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, SOME STORMS THAT FORM
OVER THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT OVER
THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT MANY OF THE STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL MORPH INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND THE AXIS OF DEFORMATION STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
WE EXPECT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS
AND THE DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. WE HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT TO SEE
HOW MUCH LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL WE GET WITH TODAY`S STORMS AND
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF TUESDAY`S FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
18Z. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN
THE MORNING AND IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY, SO
WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CASCADES.
BY WEDNESDAY, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. WE SHOULD
CATCH A BREAK THURSDAY WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY SOUTH WITH
NEAREST ISOLATED ACTIVITY POPPING UP ALONG THE SIERRAS/LASSEN
AREA SOUTH OF THE CWA.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST AND THIS MAY DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ617-621>625.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ623>625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. VIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WAVE MOVES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST IS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
STRONGER WAVE WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH HEATING LATE
THIS MORNING...EXPECT CU TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY
RAPIDLY...FIRST ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND THEN SPREADING TO MOST
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I29. BASED UPON NAM SOUNDINGS...VIRTUALLY
NO CAP WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA WITH ONLY A
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND KFSD. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SW MN AND NW IA. A
STRONGER CAP...AROUND 50 J/KG...EXISTS FARTHER WEST IN THE JAMES
AND MISSOURI VALLEYS AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION TODAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
FAVOR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF 29 AND HAVE INCLUDED SIOUX FALLS
AND MOST OF NW IA IN AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS...STORMS
WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...SFC TO 3 KM THETA-E
DIFFERENCE WILL EXCEED 20 K. THE FLOW AROUND 3 KM IS ONLY 10 TO 15
KTS SO NOT A LOT OF MOMENTUM TO BRING DOWN BUT WITH THE POSSIBLE
ACCELERATION OF AIR PARCELS IN THE DOWNDRAFT...A FEW GUSTS TO 30
OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. IN ADDITION...WITH
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OUT FROM CONVECTION AND MAY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
TEMPORARILY MILES FROM ANY ACTUAL RAIN.
UPDATED GRIDS SENT. WILL BE UPDATING HWO TO ADD THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LAST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS PULLING OUT OF OUR CWA VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS CONVECTION THINK THAT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FALLS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAY GET ENOUGH INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT TO AGAIN KICK
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ORGANIZATION TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND THINKING THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...850 MB THERMAL PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND LOOKING
AT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S...CLOSING IN ON 90 THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
BY TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN OUR EAST WILL
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE LATER EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS AS
THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SUBTLE UPPER WAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS REGION NEAR AXIS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
LIKELY SEE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES. HOWEVER THESE WEAK WAVES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER SPOTTY ACTIVITY RECENTLY AND SEE NO REASON WHY
MONDAY SHOULD BE ANY DIFFERENT. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION. FIRST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED ACTIVITY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BY FIRST REAL POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY HEAVY...PRECIPITATION THAT THE REGION HAS SEEN
IN QUITE A WHILE. SEEING SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING
NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM DEEP WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION SEEM TO SHOW BETTER CONSENSUS...WHICH CURRENTLY POINTS TO
BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN MISSOURI VALLEY AND I-90 CORRIDOR. THIS LENDS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING POPS IN THESE AREAS UP INTO CATEGORICAL
RANGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER
WHICH TIME MODEL CONSENSUS DIMINISHES AS WELL. MODELS DO GENERALLY
AGREE THAT LONGER RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL START
OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS LARGELY BACK IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS THEN A LITTLE FASTER IN EXPANDING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WET PATTERN
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MEANWHILE ECMWF/GEM HOLD ONTO COOLER LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WHILE KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH RIDGING ALOFT. GIVEN THESE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM BROAD CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHOWING A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. WHILE THERE IS NO STRONG SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION A
WEAK WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE CASE OF
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS CHANCE WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF I-29
ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS KFSD. LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF STORMS
BEGINNING AROUND KHON AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KFSD AND KSUX
ON MONDAY MORNING. BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION AT
ANY TIME FOR TAF LOCATIONS...DID NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. UPDATED GRIDS TO
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AND TWEAK SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
FINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NW FLOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING ERN MT BRINGING SHOWERS TO
SE MT. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS MAKING INTO FAR NE WY THRU NW SD
BEFORE 18Z SO HAVE ADDED SL CHC POPS THERE. MLCAPE FORECAST TO BE
500-1000 J/KG AGAIN TODAY...BUT BETTER LL SHEAR DEVELOPS LATE
AFTN/EVNG AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST NW OF THE CWA. COULD SEE ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS OR PERHAPS A SVR STORM OR TWO.
WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO GREAT
BASIN. MONSOONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WY AND BLKHLS...THEN
CROSS INTO THE CWA PLAINS THROUGH THE EVNG. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT THIS TIME WITH WEAKER AVAILABLE SHEAR. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...AS THE NE PAC NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY SUPPORTS NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES INTO THE FLOW AND
THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO A HAVE
A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...SUPPORTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS...AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. GENERAL WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH NO NOTED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FAVORED IN MEAN
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH MAY MAKE A RETURN.
CARRIED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RETAINING HIGHER NUMBERS TUESDAY THROUGH WED GIVEN
CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ADVECTING IMPULSES WITH APPRECIABLE LL
MOISTURE/WEAK CAPPING/AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. RETAINED HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESP TUE AND
WED. GENERAL WEAK 0-8 KM FLOW WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
MOST PLACES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PERIOD GIVEN POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL LL MOISTURE...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LL EASTERLY FLOW/INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ARE ALL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN TUES GIVEN MODEL/MOS
TRENDS. WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS BL
DRYING OCCURS UNDER HEIGHT RISES AND THERMAL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLD
TSRA WITH SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BLKHLS. LCL MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER CELLS. ISOLD SHRA/TS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF SD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
900 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
A WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. UPDATED GRIDS TO
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AND TWEAK SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
FINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NW FLOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING ERN MT BRINGING SHOWERS TO
SE MT. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS MAKING INTO FAR NE WY THRU NW SD
BEFORE 18Z SO HAVE ADDED SL CHC POPS THERE. MLCAPE FORECAST TO BE
500-1000 J/KG AGAIN TODAY...BUT BETTER LL SHEAR DEVELOPS LATE
AFTN/EVNG AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST NW OF THE CWA. COULD SEE ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS OR PERHAPS A SVR STORM OR TWO.
WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO GREAT
BASIN. MONSOONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WY AND BLKHLS...THEN
CROSS INTO THE CWA PLAINS THROUGH THE EVNG. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT THIS TIME WITH WEAKER AVAILABLE SHEAR. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...AS THE NE PAC NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY SUPPORTS NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES INTO THE FLOW AND
THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO A HAVE
A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...SUPPORTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS...AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. GENERAL WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH NO NOTED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FAVORED IN MEAN
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH MAY MAKE A RETURN.
CARRIED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RETAINING HIGHER NUMBERS TUESDAY THROUGH WED GIVEN
CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ADVECTING IMPULSES WITH APPRECIABLE LL
MOISTURE/WEAK CAPPING/AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. RETAINED HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESP TUE AND
WED. GENERAL WEAK 0-8 KM FLOW WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
MOST PLACES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PERIOD GIVEN POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL LL MOISTURE...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LL EASTERLY FLOW/INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ARE ALL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN TUES GIVEN MODEL/MOS
TRENDS. WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS BL
DRYING OCCURS UNDER HEIGHT RISES AND THERMAL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST PLACES. ISOLD SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-
ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BLKHLS. LCL MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA/TS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW SD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
956 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. VIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WAVE MOVES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST IS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
STRONGER WAVE WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH HEATING LATE
THIS MORNING...EXPECT CU TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY
RAPIDLY...FIRST ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND THEN SPREADING TO MOST
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I29. BASED UPON NAM SOUNDINGS...VIRTUALLY
NO CAP WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA WITH ONLY A
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND KFSD. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SW MN AND NW IA. A
STRONGER CAP...AROUND 50 J/KG...EXISTS FARTHER WEST IN THE JAMES
AND MISSOURI VALLEYS AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION TODAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
FAVOR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF 29 AND HAVE INCLUDED SIOUX FALLS
AND MOST OF NW IA IN AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS...STORMS
WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...SFC TO 3 KM THETA-E
DIFFERENCE WILL EXCEED 20 K. THE FLOW AROUND 3 KM IS ONLY 10 TO 15
KTS SO NOT A LOT OF MOMENTUM TO BRING DOWN BUT WITH THE POSSIBLE
ACCELERATION OF AIR PARCELS IN THE DOWNDRAFT...A FEW GUSTS TO 30
OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. IN ADDITION...WITH
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OUT FROM CONVECTION AND MAY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
TEMPORARILY MILES FROM ANY ACTUAL RAIN.
UPDATED GRIDS SENT. WILL BE UPDATING HWO TO ADD THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
LAST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS PULLING OUT OF OUR CWA VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS CONVECTION THINK THAT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FALLS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAY GET ENOUGH INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT TO AGAIN KICK
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ORGANIZATION TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND THINKING THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...850 MB THERMAL PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND LOOKING
AT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S...CLOSING IN ON 90 THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
BY TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN OUR EAST WILL
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE LATER EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS AS
THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
SUBTLE UPPER WAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS REGION NEAR AXIS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
LIKELY SEE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES. HOWEVER THESE WEAK WAVES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER SPOTTY ACTIVITY RECENTLY AND SEE NO REASON WHY
MONDAY SHOULD BE ANY DIFFERENT. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION. FIRST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED ACTIVITY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BY FIRST REAL POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY HEAVY...PRECIPITATION THAT THE REGION HAS SEEN
IN QUITE A WHILE. SEEING SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING
NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM DEEP WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION SEEM TO SHOW BETTER CONSENSUS...WHICH CURRENTLY POINTS TO
BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN MISSOURI VALLEY AND I-90 CORRIDOR. THIS LENDS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING POPS IN THESE AREAS UP INTO CATEGORICAL
RANGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER
WHICH TIME MODEL CONSENSUS DIMINISHES AS WELL. MODELS DO GENERALLY
AGREE THAT LONGER RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL START
OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS LARGELY BACK IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS THEN A LITTLE FASTER IN EXPANDING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WET PATTERN
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MEANWHILE ECMWF/GEM HOLD ONTO COOLER LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WHILE KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH RIDGING ALOFT. GIVEN THESE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM BROAD CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHOWING A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
520 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NW FLOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING ERN MT BRINGING SHOWERS TO
SE MT. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS MAKING INTO FAR NE WY THRU NW SD
BEFORE 18Z SO HAVE ADDED SL CHC POPS THERE. MLCAPE FORECAST TO BE
500-1000 J/KG AGAIN TODAY...BUT BETTER LL SHEAR DEVELOPS LATE
AFTN/EVNG AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST NW OF THE CWA. COULD SEE ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS OR PERHAPS A SVR STORM OR TWO.
WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO GREAT
BASIN. MONSOONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WY AND BLKHLS...THEN
CROSS INTO THE CWA PLAINS THROUGH THE EVNG. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT THIS TIME WITH WEAKER AVAILABLE SHEAR. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...AS THE NE PAC NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY SUPPORTS NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES INTO THE FLOW AND
THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO A HAVE
A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...SUPPORTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS...AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. GENERAL WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH NO NOTED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FAVORED IN MEAN
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH MAY MAKE A RETURN.
CARRIED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RETAINING HIGHER NUMBERS TUESDAY THROUGH WED GIVEN
CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ADVECTING IMPULSES WITH APPRECIABLE LL
MOISTURE/WEAK CAPPING/AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. RETAINED HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESP TUE AND
WED. GENERAL WEAK 0-8 KM FLOW WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
MOST PLACES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PERIOD GIVEN POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL LL MOISTURE...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LL EASTERLY FLOW/INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ARE ALL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN TUES GIVEN MODEL/MOS
TRENDS. WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS BL
DRYING OCCURS UNDER HEIGHT RISES AND THERMAL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST PLACES. ISOLD SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-
ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BLKHLS. LCL MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA/TS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW SD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NW FLOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING ERN MT BRINGING SHOWERS TO
SE MT. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS MAKING INTO FAR NE WY THRU NW SD
BEFORE 18Z SO HAVE ADDED SL CHC POPS THERE. MLCAPE FORECAST TO BE
500-1000 J/KG AGAIN TODAY...BUT BETTER LL SHEAR DEVELOPS LATE
AFTN/EVNG AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST NW OF THE CWA. COULD SEE ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS OR PERHAPS A SVR STORM OR TWO.
WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO GREAT
BASIN. MONSOONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WY AND BLKHLS...THEN
CROSS INTO THE CWA PLAINS THROUGH THE EVNG. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT THIS TIME WITH WEAKER AVAILABLE SHEAR. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...AS THE NE PAC NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY SUPPORTS NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES INTO THE FLOW AND
THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO A HAVE
A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...SUPPORTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS...AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. GENERAL WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH NO NOTED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FAVORED IN MEAN
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH MAY MAKE A RETURN.
CARRIED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RETAINING HIGHER NUMBERS TUESDAY THROUGH WED GIVEN
CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ADVECTING IMPULSES WITH APPRECIABLE LL
MOISTURE/WEAK CAPPING/AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. RETAINED HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESP TUE AND
WED. GENERAL WEAK 0-8 KM FLOW WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
MOST PLACES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PERIOD GIVEN POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL LL MOISTURE...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LL EASTERLY FLOW/INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ARE ALL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN TUES GIVEN MODEL/MOS
TRENDS. WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS BL
DRYING OCCURS UNDER HEIGHT RISES AND THERMAL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. SCT-ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLKHLS...WITH LCL MVFR VSBY. ISOLD SHRA/TS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW SD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN REACHED AND WE ARE SEEING SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. OTW...CAPE VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. THE HRRR DOES ELUDE TOWARD A
SHOWER OR TWO POPPING UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE AT OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND
SHORT LIVED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIRMASS TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
KEEP CAPE VALUES AT A MINIMUM AND AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
OCCUR AT CSV LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION...
AT CKV AND CSV...VFR THR0UGH 07Z/04, THEN BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR.
AT BNA...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS OVER
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WERE FALLING FROM THE
FAR NORTH END OF THIS LINE IN SOUTHWEST SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
INTERESTINGLY...THE RUC DID SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION BUT EARLIER THAN OBSERVED. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE PUGET SOUND REGION FOR TONIGHT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSTMS EITHER.
THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN LAST
NIGHT...HENCE STRATUS AND FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE LOWER
CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY. THERE ALSO APPEARED TO BE STRATUS AND/OR FOG
OVER THE WATERS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROBABLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW
CLOUDS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER WESTERN WA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH
CASCADES ALONG THE CREST AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY FOR MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL START TO EXIT ON TUE BUT WE ARE
STILL LOOKING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. 33/05
.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM MODELS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING ZONAL BY
MIDWEEK AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS DRY. HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF MARINE STRATUS.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL STICK WITH THE TREND OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. ANOTHER RIDGE MAY
BUILD OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER.
33
&&
.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY STOP AROUND THE WEST SHORES OF PUGET SOUND SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE STRATUS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING.
KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR. COASTAL STRATUS SPREADING INLAND SUNDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO STOP A LITTLE SHORT OF THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST WIND
4-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. AT THIS POINT MODELS POINT TO MONDAY EVENING AS HAVING THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE GRADIENTS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT MONDAY
EVENING. SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR THE EAST
PORTION OF THE NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN
NATIONAL RECREATIONAL AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM TO OUT TO 60 NM
AND CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE
CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS OVER
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WERE FALLING FROM THE
FAR NORTH END OF THIS LINE IN SOUTHWEST SNOHOMISH COUNTY.
INTERESTINGLY...THE RUC DID SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION BUT EARLIER THAN OBSERVED. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE PUGET SOUND REGION FOR TONIGHT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSTMS EITHER.
THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN LAST
NIGHT...HENCE STRATUS AND FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE LOWER
CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY. THERE ALSO APPEARED TO BE STRATUS AND/OR FOG
OVER THE WATERS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROBABLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW
CLOUDS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER WESTERN WA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH
CASCADES ALONG THE CREST AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY FOR MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL START TO EXIT ON TUE BUT WE ARE
STILL LOOKING FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. 33
.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM MODELS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING ZONAL BY
MIDWEEK AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS DRY. HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF MARINE STRATUS.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL STICK WITH THE TREND OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. ANOTHER RIDGE MAY
BUILD OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER.
33
&&
.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY STOP AROUND THE WEST SHORES OF PUGET SOUND SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE STRATUS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING.
KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR. COASTAL STRATUS SPREADING INLAND SUNDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO STOP A LITTLE SHORT OF THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST WIND
4-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. AT THIS POINT MODELS POINT TO MONDAY EVENING AS HAVING THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE GRADIENTS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT MONDAY
EVENING. SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR THE EAST
PORTION OF THE NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN
NATIONAL RECREATIONAL AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM TO OUT TO 60 NM
AND CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014
.UPDATE...SPS MESO PLOTS SHOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN WITH ML
CAPE VALUES ALREADY TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS
TRACKING FROM SE IA INTO WC IL. HOWEVER AN EXTENSION OF THIS VORT
EXTENDS INTO SC WI. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FORMIDABLE TRIGGER IS TOUGH TO
LATCH ONTO. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE REALLY IS NOTHING. BUT WE ARE
EXPECTING THE LAKE BREEZE TO POSSIBLY SERVE AS A FOCUS. THERE
JUST ISN/T MUCH GOING ON UPSTAIRS OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK VORT AXIS.
THE RAP SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDOING THE CAPE WITH THE NAM
SOUNDINGS MATCHING UP MORE WITH THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THE 12Z NAM
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT WILL TREND POPS A SMIDGE LOWER AND GO WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NON-EXISTENT SO
SVR POTENTIAL VERY LOW. ALSO 500 MILLIBAR TEMPS ARE -12C...SO
NOT AS COLD AS YESTERDAY AND FRIDAY.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN FOCUS IS ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK VORT AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. STARTING TO
SEE SOME CU POPPING. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING SO GOING WITH
ISOLD/SCT DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME COOL AIR ALOFT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD VFR WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SRN WI MONDAY WITH
MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER FROM NRN WI AFFECTING
THE AREA SO MAY SEE MORE COVERAGE ON THE STORMS FOR MON AFTN/EVE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IA WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH
BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENSION WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH
THE DAY. MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAPPING. GIVEN THE TSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WOULD EXPECT SCT TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE BEST FOCUS OVER THE NRN CWA AND ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE TNT ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...SO ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. SMALL HAIL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE AS THE LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SO THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO COVER A LITTLE MORE GROUND. BETWEEN THIS
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...DECIDED TO GO LIKELY POPS
MOST PLACES.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.
WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY...GOING DRY IN THE
NORTHEAST AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SEEM TO BE FINALLY SETTLING ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. KEPT A LITTLE POPS HERE AND
THERE...THOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE DROPPED IN THE FUTURE
IF MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH FORECASTING THIS PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...THIS SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN050 WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF SUN NT AS A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION. SCT TSTORMS ARE
MAINLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTORMS TNT. PATCHY
FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT KMSN.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN NT AND MAY AFFECT
KMSN...KUES...KENW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
640 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MOVES INTO CENTRAL UTAH. 12Z
PWATS ON THE GJT SOUNDING OVER 1.2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE IS HEADED
OUR WAY. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER
CARBON COUNTY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR ARLINGTON AND
CENTENNIAL WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE RADAR UP BY VEDAUWOO...SO SHOWERS
HERE AT CHEYENNE ARE NOT THAT FAR OFF.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST. ITS SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 23Z TIME FRAME. STORMS ARE GOING TO
BE VERY SLOW MOVING...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UNDER 5KTS. THOSE
AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES BEST LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING...SO WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER 03Z OR SO UNTIL TUESDAY. DRIED OUT
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM LARAMIE TO
WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON THIS EVENING.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. NAM AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LARAMIE
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE STEERING FLOW...SO
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES...WITH
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INDICATED FROM DOUGLAS TO
CHEYENNE...ALONG WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE...HAVE BOOSTED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS INTO THE 45 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE...WITH
LESSER POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
AND UTAH...WHILE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SETS UP FROM NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO NEAR TORRINGTON TO NEAR CHADRON.
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...WELL PRONOUNCED...WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND WITH PROGGED INSTABILITIES...CAPE AND DECENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LUSK TO CHEYENNE LINE...AND HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS EAST OF THIS
LINE TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE WITH ALL CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER.
FRIDAY...LESS LATE DAY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH DECREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH WILL
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE MECHANICAL LIFT.
SATURDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER OUR COUNTIES...THUS EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE PINE RIDGE FROM NEAR LUSK TO NEAR CHADRON.
MONDAY...EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT...AND WITH THE BULK OF
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER COLORADO...WILL ONLY FORECAST
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY...SIERRA
MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES...THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE GREATER INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z...AND KSNY
THROUGH 05Z. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...MODERATE TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. MVFR/IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO
AFFECT KAIA AND KCDR AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS SLOW TO
IMPROVE THROUGH TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
GIVING MOST AREAS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
DAILY BASIS. WINDS TO REMAIN WEAK AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FAIRLY
HIGH...MITIGATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MIN HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1107 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FOR
THE STORMS TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA BURN SCARS. SATELLITE
SOUNDER DATA AND MODELS CONTINUE TO MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MOSTLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO ONE INCH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE PLAINS.
.TONIGHT...HRRR AND 4KM NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS IT THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...BECOMING
MORE CAPPED FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST DURING THE EVENING...AND MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. HRRR SUGGESTS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...AS SEEN IN
CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WILL PASS MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING REACHING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
ONLY MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AT 06Z.
.TUESDAY...PORTION OF SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER NEVADA WILL CROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OVER THE MAINS AND 0.75 TO ONE INCH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN MONDAY. MAIN THREATS AGAIN
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS..ESPECIALLY ON AREA BURN SCARS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
FASTER. BEHIND THE TROUGH...DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BY LATER AFTERNOON. -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
TUE NIGHT...
DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD POPS (AT BEST) OVER
THE CONTDVD.
WED...
SHOULD BE A RATHER DRY DAY AS DRIER AIR IS FCST TO BE OVER THE MTNS
WITH THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE CREEPING INTO THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...RIDGING AT MIDLVLS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION.
BELIEVE POPS THIS DAT WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST...AND WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHEST TRRN. MAX TEMPS THIS DAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THU...
THIS DAY WILL BE TRICKY. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT
HOW FAR SOUTH WILL IT GET? GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NE CO...WHILE NAM AND EC ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING DOWN INTO EAST CENTRAL CO. FOR NOW HAVE
PAINTED ISOLD POPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT MAY NEED HIGHER POPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS IN LATER
UPDATES. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE AROUND 90F THIS DAY.
MTNS SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLD POPS.
FRI...
EC AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT THIS DAY. BOTH BRING DOWN ANOTHER
BOUNDARY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. GFS APPEARS MORE STABLE AND KEEPS WX
DRIER OVER OUR REGION WHILE EC A BIT MORE WETTER OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS. FOR NOW KEPT ONLY ISOLD POPS OVER E PLAINS WITH ISOLD PRECIP
OVER S MTN TOPS. REST OF MTNS DRY. MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOUT 90F
MOST OF PLAINS.
WEEKEND...
SIMULATIONS SHOW A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ALL AREAS AS MONSOON
PLUME WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER THE SW...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM E AZ AND W NM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
KEEPING -SHRA/-TSRA GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
PASSING -SHRA COULD AFFECT THE KALS TAF SITE TOMORROW MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AN LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD A STRONGER STORM AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
201 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN NEARING TMB.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH CANOPY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE KEYS.
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW MUCH THESE CLOUDS EFFECT TIMING OF ACTIVITY
TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW MEANS EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AT KAPF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE EAST COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL HAVE DEPARTED NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR POSSIBLY AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. STORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE GULF
COAST STILL LOOKS TO BE THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS THAN EARLIER. THE EAST COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE HRRR STILL SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF TEND TO KEEP
ANY PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE
KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
AVIATION...
DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING THREAT FOR CLOUDS AND TSRA AFT 14-16Z WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY NEAR KPBI SO PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN THEIR TAF FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V BECMG SW AT 5-10 KT AFT
14Z ALL SITES.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH COLLIER COUNTY`S COASTLINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA PREVAILS. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ABUNDANT AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WIND FLOW WILL THEN BECOME WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM THAT
POINT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BOTH COASTS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND
INTERACT ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
MARINE...
BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5-15 KTS THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WEAKER WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK BEFORE A
GENERAL SSE TO S FLOW IS PREVALENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 76 90 77 / 60 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 92 79 / 50 20 40 30
MIAMI 92 78 91 78 / 50 20 40 30
NAPLES 90 77 90 77 / 50 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS BEEN SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEEPENING A BIT AND GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
PAST 6 HRS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH NVA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND PREVENT SEVERE
THREAT. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE
MAIN CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE WARM TODAY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
BROAD WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
AIDED BY WEAK DOWNSLOPING FLOW. A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION AND
PWAT VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
MID 90S.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL YIELD WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS PWAT VALUES
RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REACHING AS HIGH AS 2.25-2.30 INCHES...WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND VERY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED FLOODING. HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A BIT LOWER BY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY THEN BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S SAT-
MON.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THE S SC COAST WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. AN E TO NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
SUCH...AND RECENT OBS NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPING. WILL EXPECT IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON VSBYS.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP POTENTIAL E/SE FORECAST AREA NEAR
OGB...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL REDUCE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PLUS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED THE EAST PART OF THE AREA
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT
INDICATE ADDITION SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME FOG
BUT THE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES LITTLE FOG. WE FORECASTED PATCHY FOG.
WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...FINALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL THEN FLATTEN OUT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WITH THIS PATTERN
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY. THE MAIN UPPER
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE
TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TUESDAY...AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S WEDNESDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN UPPER PATTER REMAINS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ALIGN WITH THE STALLED
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT FORM WEST ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT THAT CHANCE POPS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
EAST. PWATS BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GFS BEGINS TO SHOW A SURFACE
WEDGE FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THE S SC COAST WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. AN E TO NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
SUCH...AND RECENT OBS NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPING. WILL EXPECT IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON VSBYS.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP POTENTIAL E/SE FORECAST AREA NEAR
OGB...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL REDUCE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
355 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING.
* FOG THIS MORNING...WITH OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS.
* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING OWING TO REMAINING SHOWERS...A
RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION...AND DEVELOPING FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS SLOW TREND TO
CONTINUE AND EXIT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO
THREE HOURS. VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BUT WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN AS WELL AS
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...LOWER CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE WITH FOG DEVELOPING THAN THESE LOWER
CEILINGS AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LIKELY SCENARIO
FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID DAY WOULD BE
FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
GYY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WELL
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME...AND WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTING AT
THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT AM ANTICIPATING SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10KT. WINDS
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS...LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH ANY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVE TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY. EAST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
222 PM CDT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
RESUME ITS SOUTHERLY PUSH LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-20
KT TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WAVES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEY THEN BECOME EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AT 15 KT OR LESS.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Showers and scattered storms continuing over central Illinois late
Monday evening, most concentrated from KPIA southeast. The storms
are likely to be out of the KPIA vicinity by the start of the TAF
period, and will leave them out of there. KBMI, KCMI and KDEC also
likely to see a period of these storms, and have gone with TEMPO
groups for a couple hours to reduce visibility to around 2-3SM.
Thunder threat around KSPI appears minimal.
Have some concerns for visibility overnight, as a frontal boundary
settles southward across northern Illinois. Latest satellite
imagery showing some fairly substantial cloud breakup across Iowa
and more sustained clearing further north in Minnesota. With the
amount of rain that has fallen near KPIA Monday evening, any
clearing with the light winds will cause visibilities to tank.
Latest HRRR and RAP guidance focuses this more in Iowa and
northwest Illinois. For now will include a TEMPO group at KPIA to
bring visibility down to 3SM, but will need to watch this closely.
Further east, the higher clouds should last longer into the night,
and have kept visibility restrictions minimal for now.
Later parts of the forecast mainly focus on a wind shift to the
northwest and then north, as a cold front pushes through the area.
Have maintained some VCTS mention at KCMI during the afternoon,
with dry conditions elsewhere.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEK WHICH IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
TONIGHT...WHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK THERE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IF NOT ENTIRELY DRY.
SYNOPSIS AND TONIGHT...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARLY WEST-TO-EAST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN WI AND TO LOWER MI IS VERY SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE PUSH BEHIND THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH THE FRONT DRIVEN MORE BY MID/UPPER
FORCING AND COOLER STORM OUTFLOWS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CELLS ON THE
LAKE BREEZE NEAR CHICAGO....THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN IN WI AND SE MN WHERE UPPER FORCING IS BETTER
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS EVENING...STORM
COVERAGE ACTUALLY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH A VERY GRADUAL WANE ON THE REGIONAL SCOPE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW-MOVING JUST AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING FLOW AND WIND SHEAR. RADAR
TRENDS FROM WI AND INITIAL EARLY STORMS IN OUR CWA INDICATE VERY
PULSEY NATURE TO THE STORMS AND THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED INTO EVENING
WITH PRESENT MID 60S DEW POINTS AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS SHOULD MAINLY TRIGGER OR
FESTER ON OUTFLOWS. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT
UPSTREAM...INCLUDING AT LA CROSSE AND MADISON. THOSE TYPE OF GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. HOWEVER THE DISJOINT OF HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE SHORT
WAVE...AT LEAST FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...MAY PRECLUDE ANY SUCH
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A GIVEN WITH SOME STORMS DUE TO
THEIR SLOW MOVING NATURE. IF ANY OF THESE WERE TO PASS OVER A
METRO AREA IN PARTICULAR...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF FLOODING
CONCERN.
OUTFLOWS WILL LEAD TO SOME QUICK TEMPERATURE DROPS THIS EVE. BECAUSE
OF THAT SOME TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS MAY BE LOW GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY PRESENT POSSIBLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
AGAIN. IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS AND REPORTS HAVE INDICATED HAZE IN
THE METRO AREA SO HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED WAVE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...AT THIS TIME FAVORED IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME STORMS WITH THIS. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED/EVOLVED INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN POOL IN THE MID
60S. INSTABILITY OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AGAINST THE BOUNDARY...AIDED PARTLY BY A
PUSH OFF THE LAKE. AGAIN STORMS SHOULD BE OF A PULSEY NATURE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE HAS BEEN PRONOUNCED MODEL SPREAD FOR NUMEROUS RUNS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES AND MAGNITUDES DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
SPREAD HAS NOW LOWERED WITH NCEP MODELS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EC WHICH CONTINUES TO TREND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BASIC
UPPER PATTERN IS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
SERVING AS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WITH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF
IT BEING SUPPORTED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DYNAMICS. THE
CHALLENGING THING IS THAT DRIER MID TO LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TUESDAY BOUNDARY AND THAT
LIKELY IS TO PROVIDE A TIGHT GRADIENT AT LEAST AT TIMES IN PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FURTHEST
OUTLYING NORTH MODEL HAD BEEN THE 12KM NAM-WRF...WHICH EVEN ITS
4KM NESTED SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH. THE 12Z GFS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN ITS COURSER RESOLUTION IS LIKELY PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS QPF...AND ASSOCIATED GRIDDED POPS FOR BEING
FURTHER NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS AND WPC TO PUSH GOING POPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80 FOR MANY OF THOSE PERIODS. SO BASICALLY HAVE CHICAGO DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING.
* FOG THIS MORNING...WITH OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS.
* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING OWING TO REMAINING SHOWERS...A
RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION...AND DEVELOPING FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING AREA OF PRECIP SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS SLOW TREND TO
CONTINUE AND EXIT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO
THREE HOURS. VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BUT WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN AS WELL AS
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...LOWER CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE WITH FOG DEVELOPING THAN THESE LOWER
CEILINGS AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE
TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LIKELY SCENARIO
FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID DAY WOULD BE
FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
GYY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WELL
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME...AND WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTING AT
THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT AM ANTICIPATING SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10KT. WINDS
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS...LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH ANY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVE TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY. EAST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
222 PM CDT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
RESUME ITS SOUTHERLY PUSH LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-20
KT TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WAVES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEY THEN BECOME EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AT 15 KT OR LESS.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 834 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Convection that developed west of the Illinois River very late
afternoon has diminished some and made it as far east as I-155. A
large area of showers and thunderstorms was along and north of a
frontal boundary, which extended from near Des Moines into the
Chicago metro. Main threat of storms the rest of the night will be
most concentrated along and west of I-55, as a shortwave drops
southeast across Iowa. May see a few showers/storms as far
southeast as I-70 after midnight, but areas south of there likely
to remain dry overnight.
Updated zones/grids have been sent.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Showers and scattered storms continuing over central Illinois late
Monday evening, most concentrated from KPIA southeast. The storms
are likely to be out of the KPIA vicinity by the start of the TAF
period, and will leave them out of there. KBMI, KCMI and KDEC also
likely to see a period of these storms, and have gone with TEMPO
groups for a couple hours to reduce visibility to around 2-3SM.
Thunder threat around KSPI appears minimal.
Have some concerns for visibility overnight, as a frontal boundary
settles southward across northern Illinois. Latest satellite
imagery showing some fairly substantial cloud breakup across Iowa
and more sustained clearing further north in Minnesota. With the
amount of rain that has fallen near KPIA Monday evening, any
clearing with the light winds will cause visibilities to tank.
Latest HRRR and RAP guidance focuses this more in Iowa and
northwest Illinois. For now will include a TEMPO group at KPIA to
bring visibility down to 3SM, but will need to watch this closely.
Further east, the higher clouds should last longer into the night,
and have kept visibility restrictions minimal for now.
Later parts of the forecast mainly focus on a wind shift to the
northwest and then north, as a cold front pushes through the area.
Have maintained some VCTS mention at KCMI during the afternoon,
with dry conditions elsewhere.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 236 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
Northwesterly flow aloft over and upstream of Illinois as a large
scale high pressure ridge resides over the Rockies and a large
scale trough resides over the eastern U.S. just east of Illinois.
Disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow upstream of
Illinois and a cold front currently near the IL/WI border will be
the main features bringing precipitation/thunderstorms to central
IL through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.
Frontal boundary to the north expected to move into central IL
overnight and to southeast IL late Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity
currently over southern WI will spread into central IL as this
occurs, however daytime heating will have ended bringing limiting
surface-based instability. Mid-upper level instability should
still be enough for some elevated convection however. As the front
moves to Southeast IL Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorm activity
should shift to that region. A bit of a break is likely Tuesday
evening, then another disturbance brings stronger mid-level flow
over the region late Tuesday night along with precipitable water
increasing to around 2 inches interacting with the frontal zone
stalled over the region. This should bring another good chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday, some with
potentially heavy rainfall. Instability looks to be minimal so
severe thunderstorm potential remains minimal, primarily over
west-central IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
The frontal boundary is expected to linger for a few
days, eventually pushing southward late in the week. As a
result, chance PoPs remain in the forecast through
Friday, gradually moving off to the south. A basically dry
forecast is in store for the weekend with the frontal boundary
moving to the south however models still indicate disturbances
moving across the top of the ridge to the west could affect
portions of western Illinois, and have kept slight chances in for
this possibility.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
452 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECASTS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT MAY STILL
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLAF TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
MAINLY THE OUTLYING SITES NEAR DAYBREAK.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND DEWPOINTS HIGH AGAIN TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM MAY BE A COMPLICATING
FACTOR. WILL TAKE OUTLYING SITES DOWN TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z.
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS NEAR LAF AND AT MOST SITES
TUESDAY...BUT PROBABILITIES AND TOO LOW AND TIMING/PLACEMENT TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT LAF FOR THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT MAY BRUSH THE LAF AREA AS IT IS DISSIPATING.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
MAINLY THE OUTLYING SITES NEAR DAYBREAK.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND DEWPOINTS HIGH AGAIN TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM MAY BE A COMPLICATING
FACTOR. WILL TAKE OUTLYING SITES DOWN TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z.
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS NEAR LAF AND AT MOST SITES
TUESDAY...BUT PROBABILITIES AND TOO LOW AND TIMING/PLACEMENT TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT LAF FOR THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT MAY BRUSH THE LAF AREA AS IT IS DISSIPATING.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
Cirrus was slowly overspreading the western sections of Kansas from
the mean height ridge moving eastward from the Rockies into the High
Plains. A weak surface pressure/850 mb height gradient enveloped the
Central Plains. Relative low pressure over the eastern Colorado
resulted in a northward oriented pressure gradient gradient across
western Kansas resulting in generally south winds at most locations
with little downslope. Temperatures warmed to around 90 degrees
across in most locations as dew points mixed down to the upper 40s
from Scott City to Hugoton. Hays, which is closer to the warmer air
at 850 mb warmed into the upper 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The temperature trend and dew points to a lesser degree seemed to
have followed the consensus of the short term models blend fairly
well this afternoon. This trend will continue to be followed into
the rest of the forecast including Tuesday morning and into
Tuesday. The cirrus overhead may have a small impact on overnight
lows as the recent updates have bumped lows into the mid and upper
60s in most locations. The HRRR model continues to show isolated to
widely scattered convection across south central Kansas late this
afternoon likely based on reaching convective temperatures. Current
trends suggest this is overdone as was the case Sunday afternoon,
and PoPs will not be added at this time.
No major shift in airmass is taking place tonight and the same
general pattern of surface winds and diurnal warming is expected
heading into Tuesday afternoon. A breakdown in the ridge by a mid
level shortwave will create scattered convection across northeast
and east central Colorado by late in the afternoon. Low PoPs will be
included for about the western half of the area starting at about
about 23 UTC, following previous forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The upper level ridge will flatten out and be shunted southward
during the next couple of days as a series of upper level
shortwaves move up and over the ridge. These features will bring a
chance of thunderstorms to the forecast area through this weekend.
The slight chance of thunderstorms will start out across far
western Kansas Tuesday night then across central Kansas Wednesday
night. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be
from the south to south southwest Tuesday night through Thursday
with a surface trough located across eastern Colorado and far
western Kansas. A better chance of thunderstorms will be expected
this weekend as the upper level ridge retrogrades towards the
southwest United States. Winds will generally be from the southeast
during this time frame as a stationary front will be located at
the surface south of the area with a dome of high pressure to the
north. Highs through the extended period will generally be in the
low to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South winds will
generally be around 10 knots or less overnight but are expected to
become a little more southwesterly and increase to around 15-20 knots
with higher gusts by mid to late morning Tuesday. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms could impact the Garden City and Dodge City
airports toward the end of this TAF period. Given the timing and expected
nature of the storms, will hold off putting any mention of storms in
the TAFs at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 95 68 93 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 68 94 67 92 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 67 95 67 94 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 69 96 68 95 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 70 94 68 91 / 20 30 30 20
P28 71 94 71 95 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GAYLORD MI
445 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THRU AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TVC AND MBL AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BECOME N/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO OW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED MOISTURE (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) IS A COUPLE FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH. ALL
OF THIS REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN MACKINAC
COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FADE OFF
THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE
FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL SHOWERS BY MID/LATE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THRU AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TVC AND MBL AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BECOME N/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 955 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Scattered thunderstorms that were over northern Missouri earlier
this evening have dissipated. Still expect additional development
over the next few hours as the RAP shows an increase in 925-850mb
moisture convergence though 06Z over central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois that will shift southeast
across the CWA through 12Z. Have mainly slight chances of
thunderstorms the rest of the evening, but then have low chance
pops again overnight. Rest of the forecast including temperatures
still looks good and have made only minor adjustments based on
latest observations.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Weak warm advection has fueled the redevelopment of spotty
convection just to the east of a KIRK-KCOU-Eminence line over the
past few hours. Consensus of much of the short-range, hi-res
guidance is that this activity will work east and likely weaken
during the evening, but expect another uptick in PoPs after 06z as
subtle veering of weak low level jet focuses somewhat stronger lift
in a N-S axis roughly centered near or just west of STL area during
the predawn hours.
Overnight mins are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than
those of last night, primarily due to clouds.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
12z runs are forecasting a very subtle flattening of the mid level
flow regime over the mid-Mississippi heading into midweek. This
will cause a southward shift in the baroclinicity and frontal
boundary currently locked to our north, and ultimately result in
increasing rainfall chances over much of the CWA. By the end of the
week, many parts of the CWA should have received some very welcomed
wet weather.
This morning`s runs offer fairly similar solutions regarding precip
trends into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms that manage to develop
overnight tonight should drift south and weaken on Tuesday morning,
and I`ve continued low PoPs into tomorrow afternoon for areas along
and south of a KCOU-KUIN line as surface boundary will be lingering
over this part of the FA, and interacting with the increasingly
unstable AMS driven by diurnal heating. Any storms that manage to
develop Tuesday afternoon should weaken during the evening.
Model consensus remains fairly good agreement with large scale
trends heading into Tuesday night, with synoptic scale models all
forecasting the intensification of the low level jet over the mid
Missouri Valley during the late night hours. The resultant theta-e
advection/lift should lead to the development of an MCS over IA that
will roll southeast, with the leading edge of this system
threatening northern sections of our CWA late Tuesday night. NAM is
a bit further north with the QPF of this system than the GFS and the
ECMWF, and since the NAM has been a bit too far north with the
last few convective complexes, have given a nod to the consensus of
the more southern solutions.
Guidance specifics become a bit more murky heading into Wednesday
and Thursday, but all solutions indicate persistent low level WAA
into the area, combined with one or shortwaves/vort maxes drifting
across the region. Thunderstorm threat on Wednesday will likely be
a combination of the aforementioned MCS over northeast parts of the
CWA, along with additional more scattered development occurring
further to the south due to the above forcing mechanisms, along with
possible outflow interaction and increasingly unstable afternoon
airmass. Have continued our highest PoPs for Wednesday night and
Thursday, as increased baroclinicity should lead to the best low
level forcing during this time frame.
Heading into the medium range ridge begins to re-exert its
influence, but whats left of the westerly flow will allow
weak dynamics to cross the area, interacting with the residualy
unstable airmass and baroclinic zone that remains parked over the
region. Have maintained earlier forecast trends for now, keeping
fairly high PoPs into Thursday night, then slowly backing off to
low/slight chance PoPs over the weekend and into early next week.
Temperature-wise, fairly typical late summer readings can be
expected tomorrow, but the combination of clouds and the southward
push of cooler air should mean cooler weather over northeast parts
of the CWA on Wednesday, and over the rest of the area by Thursday
and Friday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
Specifics for KCOU/KUIN: Scattered SH/TS will affect KCOU/KUIN
over the next few hours before moving south and east of the
terminals. A cold front will sink southward into the region
overnight and tomorrow. Additional thunderstorms are possible at
KCOU/KUIN during the afternoon hours depending on where the cold
front is located relative to the terminals.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Scattered SH/TS will reach metro
area terminals within the next 1-2 hours. Additional thunderstorms
are possible after 18z depending on the position of a slow-moving
cold front.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
A nice cumulus field is developing with daytime heating and
instability this afternoon especially over southern Missouri.
There is a very subtle upper level shortwave moving through the
area this afternoon. The latest HRRR is indicating isolated to
scattered convection to develop by 22z near I-44 and move
southward into the early evening hours. Will still carry 20 to 30
percent pops for this general area into the evening hours.
Another upper level wave will move across the northern part of the
state by early tomorrow morning with some possible convection
making its way into central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks
tomorrow morning. Will carry a slight mention of pops for tomorrow
morning for this general area and a slightly better chance for
convection east of Highway 65 Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
The upper level ridge of high pressure which has been in control
of our weather pattern will break down somewhat over us and allow
multiple shortwaves to ride down a west-northwest flow. A front
will meander into the region by Thursday and pretty much stall out
over the Missouri Ozarks or nearby through weekend.
There will be several rounds of convection and possible MCS
activity riding along that front through the area. The first chance
for widespread convection will be late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with another rounds developing Thursday night
into Friday morning and possibly another round Friday night into
Saturday morning. Timing and exact placement is difficult to
pinpoint down at this time. The ECMWF is most bullish than the
GFS and GEM but all have the same idea.
Will mention a slight risk for heavy rainfall and some flash
flooding threat for the end of the week with widespread one to
three inches likely with isolated higher amounts over the eastern
Ozarks and central Missouri areas.
Temperatures by the end of the week will be dependent on where the
stalled front is positioned and on going convection and cloud
cover...but generally cooler temperatures in the lower 80s for the
eastern half of the CWA and upper 80s for southeast Kansas and far
southwest Missouri for the Thursday through Saturday time frame.
The front finally lifts back to the north or washes out by early
next week with temperatures moderating back to near normal and
slight pops lingering in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
trough will move slowly south into central/southern MO during the
taf period veering winds to the west toward 15z. The trough may
trigger some scattered convection once again Tue, but coverage is
expected to be sparse, but maybe a little more than the past
couple of days.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA EAST OF IEN. THE STORMS COULD REACH VTN AS EARLY AS 07Z AND
AS LATE AS 09Z. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY FOR TWO HOURS. PROJECTING THE CURRENT MOVEMENT BRINGS
THE STORMS TO VTN ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL KEEP
THEM IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TWO HOURS.
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF AN
ONL-TIF-AIA LINE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...A EAST WIND WILL CREATE AN UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF THEY WILL BE ABOVE OR BELOW 1000
FEET AGL. FOR VTN...WE WILL HOLD THE CEILING TO JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET
UNLESS THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT IT WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET
AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL HAS SOME SPOTTY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MVFR VISIBILITY GOING AND KEEP
AND EYE ON WHETHER THE VISIBILITY DROPS LOWER. THE WORST SHOULD BE
FURTHER TO THE EAST AND KEAR WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING...BUT IT IS SMALL AND WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE LATEST IR FOG
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD. UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SOME LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED...AND IT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT VISIBILITIES WERE LOWEST...PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KHNZ AND FOR A TIME NEAR KTTA. AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW...THE HRRR WRF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOWER-VISIBILITY FOG MAINLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTHEAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT AND THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
GRIDDED FORECAST WILL NOTE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR WRF ARE DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THE NAM HAS
COPIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER A QUARTER-INCH IN A LARGE PART OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LEANED WITH THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE DRIER
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT FORECAST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE...AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE
DAY ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO SLOWLY
FALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED VERY BRIEFLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1 WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM INTERSTATE 95 EAST. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND WHEN MORNING
CLOUDS ARE CONSIDERED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
UNDER A NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A SMALL VOLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
POSSIBLY BROKEN FOR A PERIOD IF THE GFS VERIFIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BEST TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND MAY NOTE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ITS QPF DOES NOTE A MINOR HUNDREDTH OR SO
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY MIX WELL BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND A
DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MIXING LAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WEAK 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. THE MEAN AIR MASS STARTS TO MOISTEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA IN
VIRGINIA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE WET NAM AND
SHOW A DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS OF A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...OR 90 TO 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70. -DJF
THU/THU NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU/THU NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENED WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS /BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA TOWARD THE NC BORDER LATE THU.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
TEMPERATURES...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. AT THIS TIME WILL
INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~90F SOUTH TO 83-85F NEAR THE VA BORDER.
DESTABILIZATION/FORCING WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT AND OF SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE. AT THIS
TIME WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FRI-MON. DESPITE GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LENDS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO PRECISE DETAILS (I.E. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING) FOR THE
CAROLINAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI/SAT...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
AND RETROGRADE INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN/MON...RESULTING IN A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF NNW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS.
GIVEN AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN JUXTAPOSED WITH MID-SUMMER
MOISTURE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY SAT/SUN. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES COMBINED WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS
TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD KINT...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS VISIBLE
UNDERNEATH HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOG HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LIGHT FOG
SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE HRRR WRF MODEL SHOWING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WHERE THERE ARE FEWER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT 07Z TO
12Z. THIS SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AT KRWI AND KRDU. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN A TAF POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SUCH TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS
HURRICANE BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE
COAST. THROUGH 10Z THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA
/MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL
BE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS BUT CHANCES OF IFR
CIGS APPEAR LOW. THE CONVECTIVE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD BECOME
PATCHY -RA AFTER 10Z OR SO AS DEEPER LIFT ABATES. -RA SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KFLO/KLBT MVFR VSBYS IN BR EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOWER TO LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FG/ST AROUND 09Z. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT VFR IN THE MORNING HOURS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD ABATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND
OUR FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A
DRYING TREND DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE LATEST IR FOG
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD. UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SOME LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED...AND IT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT VISIBILITIES WERE LOWEST...PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KHNZ AND FOR A TIME NEAR KTTA. AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW...THE HRRR WRF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOWER-VISIBILITY FOG MAINLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTHEAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT AND THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
GRIDDED FORECAST WILL NOTE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR WRF ARE DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THE NAM HAS
COPIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER A QUARTER-INCH IN A LARGE PART OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LEANED WITH THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE DRIER
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT FORECAST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE...AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE
DAY ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO SLOWLY
FALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED VERY BRIEFLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1 WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM INTERSTATE 95 EAST. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND WHEN MORNING
CLOUDS ARE CONSIDERED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
UNDER A NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A SMALL VOLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
POSSIBLY BROKEN FOR A PERIOD IF THE GFS VERIFIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BEST TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND MAY NOTE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ITS QPF DOES NOTE A MINOR HUNDREDTH OR SO
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY MIX WELL BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND A
DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MIXING LAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WEAK 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. THE MEAN AIR MASS STARTS TO MOISTEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA IN
VIRGINIA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE WET NAM AND
SHOW A DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS OF A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...OR 90 TO 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70. -DJF
THU/THU NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU/THU NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENED WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS /BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA TOWARD THE NC BORDER LATE THU.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
TEMPERATURES...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. AT THIS TIME WILL
INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~90F SOUTH TO 83-85F NEAR THE VA BORDER.
DESTABILIZATION/FORCING WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT AND OF SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE. AT THIS
TIME WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
FORECAST THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY BEING JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH PARTICULARLY
ON THE GFS...BUT THE GFS GENERATES MUCH MORE QPF THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE 850MB FRONT BEING FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THAT LATTER MODEL HAS THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...AND NEARER ANY WAVES THAT MAY MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.
THE UPPER FLOW...INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...IS CONFLUENT
AND FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE FORECAST RESULT WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64...HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE LEAST CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE ECMWF TEND TO FAVOR LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THUNDER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.
IF THE COARSE SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING COULD BE QUITE MURKY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES LITTLE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE LIMITED QPF IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
VERIFY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE
DUE TO TIMING AND FEATURE LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THE DAY SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
LIFT...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KINT TO KGSB.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW ON THE ECMWF...AND
A MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS...RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING...LOCATION...AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAINY DAY
INTO AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF U.S. 64. WILL NOT MENTION LIKELY
CHANCES THERE THIS FAR OUT BUT THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW SOLIDLY HIGH
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...
AT LEAST BRIEFLY...OCCUR BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OR WEAK SURFACE
LOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT HOW WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF
THE GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS DIFFER BY OVER 15 DEGREES...BUT
IT IS INTERESTING...FOR EXAMPLE...HOW CONSISTENT RAW GFS AND ECMWF
GRIDDED HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF U.S. 64 AND IN THE
TRIAD...WARMING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE. WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY...MOSTLY 80
TO 85 MONDAY IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES COMBINED WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS
TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD KINT...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS VISIBLE
UNDERNEATH HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOG HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LIGHT FOG
SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE HRRR WRF MODEL SHOWING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WHERE THERE ARE FEWER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT 07Z TO
12Z. THIS SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LOWEST VISIBLITY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AT KRWI AND KRDU. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN A TAF POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SUCH TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 948 PM MONDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE THE STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THE CURRENT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID 60S NW... AND 70+ IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. IT
DOES APPEAR... BASED ON SATELLITE DATA... THAT THE VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT HAD BEEN DENSE EARLIER AS FAR WEST AS FAY AND RDU...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS NEARLY CALM UNDER
WEAK RIDGING... THIS SHOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLING
TO THE SATURATION POINT... ESPECIALLY SE OF THE TRIAD REGION BETWEEN
06Z-12Z. WE WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG IN ALL BUT THE TRIAD... AND PLACE
PATCHY FOG OVER IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE... NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 65-70.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
STILL BE NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE
AGAIN. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN COURTESY OF THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER
TODAYS VALUES...WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: EASTERN US TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALBEIT UNDER WEAKENING INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH INCREASINGLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HELP TO
PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIP/RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE RATHER SCARCE...LIMITED BY THE W-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE WHILE ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA. ALL OF THIS WHILE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING POOR DIURNAL
TIMING WHICH IS FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTEAD...THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT LOOK TO
INTERCEPT THE LINGERING FRONT ZONE.
TEMPERATURES... WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES PROJECTED AOA 15-20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...
WHICH SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. AS FRONT SLIPS
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL COOL OFF A GOOD BIT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 80S NORTH
TO AROUND 90 SOUTH. LOWS
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY BEING JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH PARTICULARLY ON THE GFS...BUT THE GFS GENERATES MUCH MORE QPF
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE 850MB FRONT BEING
FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 850MB
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
THAT LATTER MODEL HAS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH
AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...AND NEARER ANY WAVES THAT MAY MOVE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE UPPER FLOW...INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS TO
OUR WEST...IS CONFLUENT AND FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE FORECAST RESULT
WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF U.S. 64...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE LEAST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...BUT COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE ECMWF TEND
TO FAVOR LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THUNDER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.
IF THE COARSE SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING COULD BE QUITE MURKY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES LITTLE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE LIMITED QPF IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
VERIFY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE
DUE TO TIMING AND FEATURE LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THE DAY SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
LIFT...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KINT TO KGSB.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW ON THE ECMWF...AND
A MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS...RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING...LOCATION...AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAINY DAY
INTO AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF U.S. 64. WILL NOT MENTION LIKELY
CHANCES THERE THIS FAR OUT BUT THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW SOLIDLY HIGH
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...
AT LEAST BRIEFLY...OCCUR BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OR WEAK SURFACE
LOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT HOW WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF
THE GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS DIFFER BY OVER 15 DEGREES...BUT
IT IS INTERESTING...FOR EXAMPLE...HOW CONSISTENT RAW GFS AND ECMWF
GRIDDED HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF U.S. 64 AND IN THE
TRIAD...WARMING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE. WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY...MOSTLY 80
TO 85 MONDAY IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES COMBINED WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS
TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD KINT...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS VISIBLE
UNDERNEATH HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOG HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LIGHT FOG
SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH THE HRRR WRF MODEL SHOWING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WHERE THERE ARE FEWER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT 07Z TO
12Z. THIS SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LOWEST VISIBLITY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AT KRWI AND KRDU. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN A TAF POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SUCH TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...PWB/KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
303 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL IMPRESSIVE SO
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALSO TEND TO
LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME
SHOWERS COULD GET INTO NW OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. DRY FOR A MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT...BUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA MAY BE NEARING
TOLEDO AND THE LAKE NEAR 6 AM. WITH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF CONVECTION EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER METMOS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THIS EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. COULD WELL BE A LULL IN CONVECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL
JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL LAKES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TREND AFTER THAT IS A
RETURN OF DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WHICH MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THAT ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET
INTO NW OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKE INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN
TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR THE WEEKEND. SO AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRIEF BRING
WAVES INTO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. OTHERWISE 2 FEET OR LESS WILL BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL COVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SURGE OF COOLER...DRIER AIR AND SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA
WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CURRENT TIGHT...ZERO - 3 DEG F TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AND AN
AIR TO RIVER/STREAM TEMP DIFF OF AROUND 20F WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS LEADING UP TO...AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VSBYS IN THE DEEPEST/COOLEST VALLEYS OF NRN PENN COULD
DIP BRIEFLY BELOW 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.
QUASI-STNRY/RELATIVELY WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM GRAND RAPIDS
MICHIGAN...TO NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 08Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MTNS...LYCOMING VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS BEFORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ENCROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD BASK IN MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...THANKS TO THE
SFC RIDGE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT LINGERING THERE
UNTIL 00Z WED.
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW WERE BLENDED WITH THE 03Z SREF TO
PAINT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE DETAILS INTO OUR POP AND WEATHER
GRID DATABASE FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA THAT
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT EDGES TWD THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING INTO
THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
MU CAPES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG IN MOST PLACES
BETWEEN 16-20Z...WITH A POCKET OF 1500 J/KG CAPE PRECEDING THE
AREA OF MOST NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ENDING AT 00Z WED RANGE FROM ONE-TENTH...TO
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN THE FAR SE.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A HIGH TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SERN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT /AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ SHOULD DECREASE IN CVRG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CONCERNED THAT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG /90 KT/ 300 MB JET AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER UVVEL/STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
WILL SPARK A SEVERAL TO 6-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSRA PRECEDING A SECONDARY CFRONT VERY EARLY WED ACROSS THE
FAR WEST...AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES.
THE POTENTIAL FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY CFRONT SHOULD BE THE LAST DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL HERE IN CENTRAL PA FOR AT LEAST 2-3 DAYS. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR DOES HOWEVER INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS
NRN PENN IN THE MORNING...AND A RIBBON OF 50-60 KT SHEAR ACRS
SOUTHERN PENN LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DY2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY FOR GENERAL
THUNDER...WITH THE STG-SVR STORM THREAT LIMITED BY THE APPARENT
LACK OF DEEP LYR MSTR/AVG PWS AND CAPE. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS INCREASED TO A SEE TEXT /OR EVEN A COMPACT SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS PENN/ WITH LATER UPDATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING AND A RELATIVE MIN OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE STATE AFTER 21Z WED...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /50-70
PERCENT/ WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH NOT AS MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AS LAST NIGHT SO FOG WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS POSS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE SE HALF OF
CWA...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NW WILL BRING
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
SCT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS /MAINLY NORTHWEST/. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN
FOR WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY NW.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR
KLBX THROUGH 09Z. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND THINK
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE AT KLBX...KIAH AND KCXO. MODELS
HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHT WITH CIGS SO NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT WITH VFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THE LATEST RAP AND 4
KM WRF FOCUS SOME AFTN SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NE HALF OF SE TX. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES
AROUND 21Z SO ADDED VCSH FOR KUTS AND KCXO FOR TUES AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS FINALLY STARTED TO WASH
OUT THIS EVENING. STILL GETTING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DECREASE THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AS 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURE AND POP GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FINALLY GETTING THE SCT PCPN THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THESE LAST
FEW DAYS (VIA THE PESKY LOW THAT MOVED IN FROM THE E YESTERDAY).
PER SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSES THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
TODAY AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT. OVERALL NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE FCST THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE SETTLE IN-
TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
(AS THE TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST). MOST NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE
FCST APPEARS TO BE IN THE EXTENDED WHERE ECMWF HAS A MUCH STRONG-
ER UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE STATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS...WHICH IS NOW GOING WITH THE SHEAR AXIS/WEAK
TROFFING SCENARIO. AS SUCH...WILL BE KEEPING WITH THE GOING FCST
OF MAINLY DAYTIME SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN IN THE MID/EXTENDED PART
OF THE FCST. ALSO NOT REALLY SOLD ON THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTH) SO WILL KEEP THESE NUMBERS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
41
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING LATE WEEK AS
A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 94 75 95 75 / 30 20 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 93 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE 250 MB JET MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH
INCREASES TO 100 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WISCONSIN BEFORE MOVING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PUTS SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS A RESULT UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MOST MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM DOES BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
REACHES 1000 JOULES/KG ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER WITH LESS
THAN 200 JOULES/KG NEAR SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS DRY THROUGH 19Z WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. THE 00Z
HIGH RES WRF/ARW DOES BRING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG...WITH A FEW AREAS DENSE...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TODAY.
THE FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH
DAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...AROUND 100 TO 300
J/KG... ON WEDNESDAY...THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGHER VALUES
OF 700-900 J/KG CAPE ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE
MORE DISTINCT AND AGREED UPON BETWEEN MODELS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS THE BEST
DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10C TO 12C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 19C
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO 14C
AND 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 22C BY MONDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS. A FEW
SPOTS WILL BE AROUND 1/4 MILE. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. THEN MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MAINLY VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS [POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET MAX.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1127 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MOVES INTO CENTRAL UTAH. 12Z
PWATS ON THE GJT SOUNDING OVER 1.2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE IS HEADED
OUR WAY. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER
CARBON COUNTY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR ARLINGTON AND
CENTENNIAL WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE RADAR UP BY VEDAUWOO...SO SHOWERS
HERE AT CHEYENNE ARE NOT THAT FAR OFF.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST. ITS SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 23Z TIME FRAME. STORMS ARE GOING TO
BE VERY SLOW MOVING...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UNDER 5KTS. THOSE
AREAS THAT DO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES BEST LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING...SO WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER 03Z OR SO UNTIL TUESDAY. DRIED OUT
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM LARAMIE TO
WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON THIS EVENING.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. NAM AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LARAMIE
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE STEERING FLOW...SO
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OVER OUR COUNTIES...WITH
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INDICATED FROM DOUGLAS TO
CHEYENNE...ALONG WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE...HAVE BOOSTED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS INTO THE 45 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE...WITH
LESSER POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
AND UTAH...WHILE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SETS UP FROM NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO NEAR TORRINGTON TO NEAR CHADRON.
850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...WELL PRONOUNCED...WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND WITH PROGGED INSTABILITIES...CAPE AND DECENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A LUSK TO CHEYENNE LINE...AND HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS EAST OF THIS
LINE TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE WITH ALL CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER.
FRIDAY...LESS LATE DAY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH DECREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH WILL
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE MECHANICAL LIFT.
SATURDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER OUR COUNTIES...THUS EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE PINE RIDGE FROM NEAR LUSK TO NEAR CHADRON.
MONDAY...EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT...AND WITH THE BULK OF
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER COLORADO...WILL ONLY FORECAST
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY...SIERRA
MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES...THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE GREATER INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z TUE...MAINLY FOR KAIA AND
KCDR. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ACROSS THOSE AREAS ON TUE
WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 17-18Z AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
GIVING MOST AREAS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
DAILY BASIS. WINDS TO REMAIN WEAK AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FAIRLY
HIGH...MITIGATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MIN HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1112 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE BERTHA PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
MONITORING BOTH KENX AND KOKX RADARS...SAW A LONELY SHOWER MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO CENTRAL NH BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z.
ALSO SEE A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ALONG DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTING LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AND POSSIBLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT...BUT AGAIN WILL MONITOR.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN STEADILY SINCE SUNRISE...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT 15Z...UP TO 84 AT KFIT. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE CLOSE TO
FORECASTED TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BERTHA TO THE SE WHILE A BROAD-TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR /H85-H3/ BETWEEN THE TWO
COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H3 JET SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND INTO AFTERNOON. BUT
WITH THE WESTERN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD H5 TROUGH...EXPECT THE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ENHANCED ASCENT ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W MA / CT AND SW NH. COULD ALSO SEE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
CONSIDERING INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR...ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
NOTING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG
WITH A COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...
FEEL THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
THE MID-80S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE MID-60S. COOLER ALONG
THE SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO S NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS N/W INTERIOR...WEAKENING OVER TIME WITH THE
LACK OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FALLING HEIGHTS / CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE
COASTLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOUPY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-60S MAINTAINED
BY SW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW-CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF S/SE NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SHORELINES. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP AREAS
OF THE N/W INTERIOR FOG-FREE. LOWS NW-SE RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S TO
UPPER-60S.
WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY...IGNORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN. BELIEVE THE OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
MAINLY ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SWEEPS
THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL BROAD TROUGH...FALLING HEIGHTS ARE
INVOKED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H3 CYCLONIC JET...MID-
LEVEL ENHANCED ASCENT...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF A SOUPY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
PREVAILS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS S/E INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INCORPORATING E MA AND RI.
ASSUMING INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE MET IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF AVERAGE 30 KT W-E UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD YIELD
ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. PWATS RANGE 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES. ONCE AGAIN...NOTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG WITH A
COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...FEEL
THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/. A GREATER THREAT OF
URBAN FLOODING IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SHOULD STORMS PERPETUATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MORE S/E WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-70S. COOLER AND DRIER N/W THOUGH LOW-80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER CT-VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
05.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM IN SPITE OF THE FACT CONDITIONS FAVOR A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. BASE OF A LONGWAVE
TROF WITH HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THU. THANKFULLY THE ORIENTATION AND
MOVEMENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE BOTH THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA AND
ITS MOISTURE WELL E OF NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING THE DRIER AIR FROM
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD. FOLLOWING
THIS TROF...THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD FAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE N CONUS AS DEEPENING TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...A BLEND OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
DETAILS...
THU INTO FRI...
ALTHOUGH SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY THU...ACUTE VORT MAX WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND LINGERING INTO FRI. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
VERY LOW H5 HEIGHTS AND TEMPS APPROACHING -18C. THEREFORE...WITH A
FOCUS FOR LIFT AND SOME MID LVL DESTABILIZATION
/MU CAPE VALUES MAY REACH AROUND 500J/KG IN SPOTS ON THU...SLIGHTLY
LOWER ON FRI/ MAY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST LIKELY TO SEE A DECK
OF SCT-BKN CU FOR EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH SOME
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS FRI...WILL
FEATURE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THU THAN FRI. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT AND FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
50S IN SPOTS...LOW 60S IN NORMAL URBAN HEAT ISLANDS.
THIS COMING WEEKEND...
MID LVL RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ATTENDANT HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. +12C H85 TEMPS ON SAT FOLLOWED BY +14C ON SUN SUGGESTS
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SAT /HIGHS AROUND 80-LOW 80S/ AND SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL SUN /HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/.
MON INTO TUE...
SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO SHOW HERE...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING AND
DEPTH OF A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING E FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID LVL RIDGE HAS HIGH ENOUGH HEIGHTS
THAT IT SHOULD HOLD AS THE TROF DEEPENS TO KEEP AN PRECIP FROM A
SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WELL TO THE S. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THERE IS A PATTERN SHIFT AFOOT...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS WEE GO THROUGH WEEK. THE E SHIFT IN
THE SFC HIGH PRES SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT LOCAL MVFR-IFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS KACK THROUGH 18Z OR SO. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAINLY W-SW. SEA
BREEZES FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DISSIPATING AROUND 3Z ACROSS INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND.
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY FOR S/E NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINES.
WEDNESDAY...
MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS DISSIPATE. SEA-BREEZES AROUND 15Z BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR E/SE MA AND ALL OF RI.
ACTIVITY FURTHER W POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SEA BREEZE THROUGH
22Z-23Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME MIXED MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING
GIVES WAY TO SOME IMPROVEMENT EARLY THU MORNING.
THU INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...BUT THU AND FRI A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD IS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AS BERTHA MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
S/SE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE.
THE DELAY IN SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY WILL LIMIT THE RIP
CURRENT RISK...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VSBYS AGAIN BELOW 1SM IN SOME AREAS MAINLY S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LINGERING 5-6 FT SWELL FROM BERTHA
WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAY ON THU.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THU AS
THE SWELL SUBSIDES.
FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1047 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS
ANOTHER MUGGY AND WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH CU NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECTED...TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0 C/KM...AROUND
500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW RADIATION FOG IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VARIOUS WEB CAMS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD
BE GONE FROM THE TAF SITES BY 13Z EXCEPT KPSF WHERE IT MAY LINGER
UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 19Z
OR 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TAF SITES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1051 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1013 AM CDT
NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO TRAP THIS
MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE MADE NO
CHANGES TO GOING HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT DID SLOW THE
TEMP RISE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
CLOUDINESS. ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
DO NOT SHOW ANY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...MODIFYING THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING FOR
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS YIELDS SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF
MLCAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...SO STILL POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING LAST AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOLID IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED MORE TOWARDS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. WHILE RFD OBSERVES IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EXPECT THE REMAINING SITES TO ONLY OBSERVE MVFR CEILINGS.
A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
THEY SCATTER BY MID/LATE MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
SPEEDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN EXTRA LAKE PUSH OCCURS. OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ADDED LAKE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM IN SPEED OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING 10 KT AT 20Z.
* MEDIUM WITH CEILING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
434 AM CDT
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY THIS MORNING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. DO EXPECT
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
TODAY...WHILE WAVES ALSO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS INCREASE IN
SPEEDS WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST SETTLES IN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
Will update the forecast today to adjust sky cover with more low
clouds from Peoria north into midday. Will continue 20-30% chances
of showers and thunderstorms over eastern IL this afternoon.
Seasonably warm highs in the mid 80s over much of CWA with upper
80s near Lawrenceville and Robinson by Wabash river valley. Rather
humid today with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F with lowest
dewpoints in southeast IL.
Short wave that brought locally heavy rains of 1.5-3.5 inches
around the Peoria metro area last night has shifted east and south
of central IL late this morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms have exited southeast IL during mid morning so by
late morning ILX CWA is dry. Low clouds of 500-1200 feet from
Peoria north while patches of clouds above 3k ft over eastern IL
from I-57 east. 10 am temps range from near 70F far ne CWA by
Lacon and Danville where clouds prevail, to upper 70s from
Springfield sw where more sunshine this morning. Dewpoints range
from mid 60s over eastern IL to near 70F from Macomb to
Springfield west.
A frontal boundary just se of the IL river will continue to press
slowly se into southeast IL later today. Even though we are on
back side of short wave exiting se of IL today, the boundary could
develop isolated convection this afternoon as it pushes through
areas se of I-55. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms this afternoon
and into tonight over Nebraska and western IA and then has 5% risk
of severe hail/wind over central IL Wed afternoon/evening and
slight chance of severe storms (15% of large hail and damaging
wind gusts) sw of a Canton to Lincoln line.
HUETTL
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
Challenging forecast thru late morning as copious low level
moisture left over from last night`s rainfall and light wind
flow will create variable conditions with respect to vsbys
and cigs thru the morning. Watching a band of stratus drifting
south out of northern Illinois which may affect the PIA and
BMI terminals this morning. After that, forecast soundings
indicate we may see some MVFR cigs for a time into early this
afternoon, especially from KPIA to KBMI and possibly into
KCMI. Based on the sounding data, cigs in the 2500-3500 foot
range will be possible before we trend towards scattered bases
around 4000 feet aftr 19z. Confidence on this scenario rather
low as lower cloud deck appears to be breaking up some as it
tracks south early this morning. Winds once again a non-factor
although we will see a frontal boundary slip south of the area
switching the wind direction more into a north to northeast
direction later this morning into the afternoon hours. Some
mid to high level clouds will be the story for tonight with
some fog/hz developing again later in the evening.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUETTL
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
849 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 15Z...LIKELY INCREASING TO 10KT
OR HIGHER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
* FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING LAST AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOLID IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED MORE TOWARDS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. WHILE RFD OBSERVES IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EXPECT THE REMAINING SITES TO ONLY OBSERVE MVFR CEILINGS.
A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
THEY SCATTER BY MID/LATE MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE CURRENT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
SPEEDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN EXTRA LAKE PUSH OCCURS. OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ADDED LAKE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM IN SPEED OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING 10 KT AT 19Z.
* MEDIUM WITH CEILING TRENDS THIS MORNING.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
434 AM CDT
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY THIS MORNING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE. DO EXPECT
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
TODAY...WHILE WAVES ALSO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS INCREASE IN
SPEEDS WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST SETTLES IN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
Challenging forecast thru late morning as copious low level
moisture left over from last night`s rainfall and light wind
flow will create variable conditions with respect to vsbys
and cigs thru the morning. Watching a band of stratus drifting
south out of northern Illinois which may affect the PIA and
BMI terminals this morning. After that, forecast soundings
indicate we may see some MVFR cigs for a time into early this
afternoon, especially from KPIA to KBMI and possibly into
KCMI. Based on the sounding data, cigs in the 2500-3500 foot
range will be possible before we trend towards scattered bases
around 4000 feet aftr 19z. Confidence on this scenario rather
low as lower cloud deck appears to be breaking up some as it
tracks south early this morning. Winds once again a non-factor
although we will see a frontal boundary slip south of the area
switching the wind direction more into a north to northeast
direction later this morning into the afternoon hours. Some
mid to high level clouds will be the story for tonight with
some fog/hz developing again later in the evening.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE EXTREME WEST THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND UPPED THEM TO HIGH END OF CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. RAIN IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES EAST SO KEPT LOWER POPS EAST.
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WEAKENS...AND LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THUS GENERALLY
KEPT POPS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM THE
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS PORINT.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL BUT KLAF. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THE PRECIP AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KLAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING ALOFT
IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP
THESE SITES DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO N/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT DECK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD
SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE EXTREME WEST THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND UPPED THEM TO HIGH END OF CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. RAIN IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES EAST SO KEPT LOWER POPS EAST.
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WEAKENS...AND LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THUS GENERALLY
KEPT POPS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM THE
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL BUT KLAF. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THE PRECIP AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KLAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING ALOFT
IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP
THESE SITES DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO N/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT DECK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD
SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL BUT KLAF. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THE PRECIP AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KLAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING ALOFT
IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP
THESE SITES DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY VEER TO N/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT DECK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD
SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A NICE EARLY AUGUST DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWERS
DOWN TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR. SOME PESKY LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MILL AROUND DOWN THAT WAY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS WITH BOUTS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
NORTH CONTINUE TO SEE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SAID WAVE. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BLOSSOMING OF
SOME CUMULUS BENEATH WEAKISH THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE. NOT AT ALL CONVINCED WE WILL REALIZE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY LOOKS A SHADE
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY PER 12Z APX RAOB...INDICATIVE OF DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIXING OUT BACK THROUGH THE LOWER 50S WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN LITTLE
THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL TAKE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING TO JUST SQUEEZE BY THE CAP UP AROUND 600
MB. IF THAT`S GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWHERE IT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESIDE
OFF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY...BUT EVEN THERE THE CHANCE IS QUITE
LOW. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE `ISOLATED` RANGE WHILE ALSO
RAISING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BASED OFF
YESTERDAY`S READINGS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...NOT TO MENTION
CURRENT OBS ALREADY WITHIN 5-7 DEGREES OF GOING HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...VFR...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING AWAY FROM TVC/MBL ATTM WITH
CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY SETTLING IN. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS AROUND THE
AIRPORTS WITH LAKE BREEZES YET AGAIN. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WITH MAYBE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD FOR MAINLY PLN/APN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...VFR...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING AWAY FROM TVC/MBL ATTM WITH
CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY SETTLING IN. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS AROUND THE
AIRPORTS WITH LAKE BREEZES YET AGAIN. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WITH MAYBE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD FOR MAINLY PLN/APN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SURE ENOUGH A MID-LVL SHWR HAS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AND PULSED UP
NEAR NORTON KS /NRN/ BUT IT IS ALREADY FADING. HAVE INTRODUCED A
20% POP S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES FROM NOW THRU EARLY AFTERNOON TO
ACCT FOR WHAT COULD BE JUST SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DWPTS YESTERDAY SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
AND LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S DDC SOUNDING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WX
FCST WITH THE LOWER RH LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DWPTS YESTERDAY SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
AND LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S DDC SOUNDING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WX
FCST WITH THE LOWER RH LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
636 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
IFR ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21Z
ONWARD...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STORM ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS
SWRN COLO LIFTS INTO THE SANDHILLS. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED FROM 06Z ONWARD AND BECOME SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING FROM 04Z ONWARD ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS ALSO.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR VISIBILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR
SINCE LOWER VISIBILITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1043 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE SMALL
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SSE OF CAPE
FEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY NE...AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. ACROSS THE
INLAND COUNTIES...DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA VIA
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS...ALONG WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. A FEW POPCORN TYPE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DECREASING POP TREND
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT AND INCREASE MAX
TEMPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT THE NEXT
UPDATE DUE TO ADDITIONAL INSOLATION REACHING THE SFC THEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...RADAR REVEALS A GROWING AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 30-100 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR...BUT A LONG RADAR LOOP REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO GET IN ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE I
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHPORT-BALD
HEAD ISLAND AREA. A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ANCHOR POINT
FOR THIS RAINFALL...AND DETERMINING THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE IS
INSTRUMENTAL TO MAKING AN ACCURATE RAINFALL FORECAST. THE HRRR MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION AND ADVECTS IT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BETWEEN 16-17Z. ON THIS PATH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OCEAN WITH THE WETTEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAND BETWEEN NOW AND
NOON.
OTHER THAN CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND POPS/PRECIP AMOUNT...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE
GONE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES
ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THE FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. NOT LOOKING
FOR THAT MUCH CONVECTION TODAY...MAYBE ILM. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL FLING SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ONSHORE TO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING ITS
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH LESS FOG/STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RAISED FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...DUE TO SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE ILM SC WATERS. BOTH WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.
BERTHA SWELLS NOW AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS...AND RUNNING HIGHER
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING WATERS FROM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...LATEST 41110 BUOY REPORTING SIGNIFICANT
SEAS UP TO 5 FT...AND THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41036 REPORTING 8+ FT.
BOTH BUOYS INDICATE SIG. SEAS PREDOMINATELY FROM BERTHA SWELL.
PERIODS RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 SECONDS. FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...LATEST
EDISTO BUOY REPORTED UP TO 7 FT SIG. SEAS...WITH WIND DRIVEN WAVES
A BETTER CONTRIBUTING THEN WHATS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ILM NC
WATERS.
FOR WINDS...THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT AFTER
THE DEPARTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR...WILL YIELD N TO NE WINDS AT 10-15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING TO NW TO NNW AT 10 KT DURING TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY
LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS
SWIRL AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MISSING THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM EDT. LACK OF
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LOW IS HINDERING ANALYSIS...BUT NOAA
BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON HAS NOT GUSTED ANY HIGHER THAN 17
KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM 3 AM AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND OUR FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...RADAR REVEALS A GROWING AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 30-100 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR...BUT A LONG RADAR LOOP REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO GET IN ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE I
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHPORT-BALD
HEAD ISLAND AREA. A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ANCHOR POINT
FOR THIS RAINFALL...AND DETERMINING THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE IS
INSTRUMENTAL TO MAKING AN ACCURATE RAINFALL FORECAST. THE HRRR MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION AND ADVECTS IT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BETWEEN 16-17Z. ON THIS PATH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OCEAN WITH THE WETTEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAND BETWEEN NOW AND
NOON.
OTHER THAN CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND POPS/PRECIP AMOUNT...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE
GONE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES
ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THE FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. NOT LOOKING
FOR THAT MUCH CONVECTION TODAY...MAYBE ILM. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL FLING SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ONSHORE TO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING ITS
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH LESS FOG/STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY
LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS
SWIRL AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MISSING THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM EDT. LACK OF
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LOW IS HINDERING ANALYSIS...BUT NOAA
BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON HAS NOT GUSTED ANY HIGHER THAN 17
KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM 3 AM AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND OUR FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
646 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE LATEST IR FOG
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1...WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS TOWARD THE TRIAD. UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SOME LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED...AND IT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT VISIBILITIES WERE LOWEST...PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KHNZ AND FOR A TIME NEAR KTTA. AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW...THE HRRR WRF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOWER-VISIBILITY FOG MAINLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTHEAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT AND THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
GRIDDED FORECAST WILL NOTE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR WRF ARE DRY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THE NAM HAS
COPIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER A QUARTER-INCH IN A LARGE PART OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LEANED WITH THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE DRIER
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ONLY WEAK LIFT FORECAST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE...AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE
DAY ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO SLOWLY
FALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED VERY BRIEFLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF ABOUT U.S. 1 WITH
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM INTERSTATE 95 EAST. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND WHEN MORNING
CLOUDS ARE CONSIDERED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
UNDER A NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS...WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A SMALL VOLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...
POSSIBLY BROKEN FOR A PERIOD IF THE GFS VERIFIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS BEST TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND MAY NOTE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ITS QPF DOES NOTE A MINOR HUNDREDTH OR SO
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY MIX WELL BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND A
DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MIXING LAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WEAK 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINTS COULD RESULT IN A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. THE MEAN AIR MASS STARTS TO MOISTEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WITH
ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA IN
VIRGINIA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE WET NAM AND
SHOW A DRY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS OF A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...OR 90 TO 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70. -DJF
THU/THU NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU/THU NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENED WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS /BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA TOWARD THE NC BORDER LATE THU.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
TEMPERATURES...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. AT THIS TIME WILL
INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~90F SOUTH TO 83-85F NEAR THE VA BORDER.
DESTABILIZATION/FORCING WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT AND OF SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE. AT THIS
TIME WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FRI-MON. DESPITE GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LENDS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO PRECISE DETAILS (I.E. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING) FOR THE
CAROLINAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI/SAT...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
AND RETROGRADE INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN/MON...RESULTING IN A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF NNW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS.
GIVEN AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN JUXTAPOSED WITH MID-SUMMER
MOISTURE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY SAT/SUN. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED SOME LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED AROUND THE
TRIAD...WITH A SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. FOG HAD DEVELOPED...WITH A NARROW BAND OF
THE LOWEST VISIBILITY FROM KRDU NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHERE THE HRRR
WRF MODEL SHOWED THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLID IFR FOG POTENTIAL
ORIGINATING OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WHERE THERE WERE FEWER MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EARLIER...THEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A TAF
POINT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND. EVENING WINDS...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...MAY SHOW A TENDENCY TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SUCH
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER
OVERNIGHT.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGHER CHANCES AS
THEY DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. STILL...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING
SATURDAY OR ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS
HURRICANE BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE CWA...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. NOT LOOKING
FOR THAT MUCH CONVECTION TODAY...MAYBE ILM. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL FLING SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ONSHORE TO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING ITS
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH LESS FOG/STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND
OUR FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A
DRYING TREND DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
933 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING BUT NOT AS SLOW AS OVER THE WEEKEND. SO THE SLOWER
MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND A
HALF COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL
IMPRESSIVE SO GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH
BUT ALSO TEND TO LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED AND SLOWED POP INCREASE FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HRRR/RUC RUN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL IMPRESSIVE SO
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALSO TEND TO
LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED AND SLOWED POP INCREASE FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HRRR/RUC RUN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD GET INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TWO S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LERI TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY TONIGHT. NEITHER THE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY ARE REAL IMPRESSIVE SO
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALSO TEND TO
LINGER ON THE BACK EDGE AS THE MOISTURE HANGS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT WINDS DOING LITTLE TO FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...DECREASED AND SLOWED POP INCREASE FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA AND HRRR/RUC RUN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDAY DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR SHRA
AND SOME THUNDER GOING TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND S/W
WILL DROP SE THRU THE REGION WED HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY N TO NE WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE SO WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE AS NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE.
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT THE THREAT OF PRECIP SOUTH SO THINK THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED NIGHT
SHOULD GET INTO A 55 TO 60 RANGE FOR MOST PLACES AS LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS PERSIST AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NE SIDE OF A LOW WED NIGHT IN IA AND MOVING THE COMPLEX ESE TO CROSS
THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. NOT SEEING THIS ON OTHER
MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS INCHED SOME QPF INTO SW OH THU NIGHT.
WILL MAINLY KEEP FORECAST DRY THU/THU NIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. DAYTIME
TEMPS THU AND FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BY MONDAY IT HAS MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DARK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL DECREASE AS THEY MOVE EAST...SOME
SHOWERS COULD GET INTO NW OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. GOING ALONG WITH THE HRRR MODEL IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN AREAS OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LAKE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. IN THE MEANTIME NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THAT DIRECTION CAN BE TRICKY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL FOLLOW
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED LEAVING MOST OF THE
REGION BRIGHT AND SUNNY...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT HAZY. CLOUDS ARE
ENCROACHING OVER THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW WERE BLENDED WITH THE 03Z SREF TO
PAINT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE DETAILS INTO OUR POP AND WEATHER
GRID DATABASE FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA THAT
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT EDGES TWD THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING INTO
THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ENDING AT 00Z WED RANGE FROM ONE-
TENTH...TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN THE FAR SE.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A HIGH TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SERN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT /AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ SHOULD DECREASE IN CVRG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CONCERNED THAT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG /90 KT/ 300 MB JET AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER UVVEL/STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
WILL SPARK A SEVERAL TO 6-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSRA PRECEDING A SECONDARY CFRONT VERY EARLY WED ACROSS THE
FAR WEST...AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES.
THE POTENTIAL FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY CFRONT SHOULD BE THE LAST DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL HERE IN CENTRAL PA FOR AT LEAST 2-3 DAYS. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR DOES HOWEVER INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS
NRN PENN IN THE MORNING...AND A RIBBON OF 50-60 KT SHEAR ACRS
SOUTHERN PENN LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DY2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY FOR GENERAL
THUNDER...WITH THE STG-SVR STORM THREAT LIMITED BY THE APPARENT
LACK OF DEEP LYR MSTR/AVG PWS AND CAPE. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS INCREASED TO A SEE TEXT /OR EVEN A COMPACT SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS PENN/ WITH LATER UPDATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING AND A RELATIVE MIN OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE STATE AFTER 21Z WED...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /50-70
PERCENT/ WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF 10AM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND SELINSGROVE.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY MID DAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE SE HALF OF
CWA...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NW WILL BRING
LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCT MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY NW.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
749 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL COVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SURGE OF COOLER...DRIER AIR AND SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA
WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CURRENT TIGHT...ZERO - 3 DEG F TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AND AN
AIR TO RIVER/STREAM TEMP DIFF OF AROUND 20F WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS LEADING UP TO...AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VSBYS IN THE DEEPEST/COOLEST VALLEYS OF NRN PENN COULD
DIP BRIEFLY BELOW 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.
QUASI-STNRY/RELATIVELY WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM GRAND RAPIDS
MICHIGAN...TO NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 08Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MTNS...LYCOMING VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS BEFORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ENCROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD BASK IN MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...THANKS TO THE
SFC RIDGE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT LINGERING THERE
UNTIL 00Z WED.
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW WERE BLENDED WITH THE 03Z SREF TO
PAINT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE DETAILS INTO OUR POP AND WEATHER
GRID DATABASE FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA THAT
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT EDGES TWD THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA DRIFTING INTO
THAT REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
MU CAPES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG IN MOST PLACES
BETWEEN 16-20Z...WITH A POCKET OF 1500 J/KG CAPE PRECEDING THE
AREA OF MOST NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ENDING AT 00Z WED RANGE FROM ONE-TENTH...TO
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN THE FAR SE.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A HIGH TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SERN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT /AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ SHOULD DECREASE IN CVRG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CONCERNED THAT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG /90 KT/ 300 MB JET AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER UVVEL/STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF ITS LEFT EXIT REGION
WILL SPARK A SEVERAL TO 6-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSRA PRECEDING A SECONDARY CFRONT VERY EARLY WED ACROSS THE
FAR WEST...AND DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES.
THE POTENTIAL FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY CFRONT SHOULD BE THE LAST DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL HERE IN CENTRAL PA FOR AT LEAST 2-3 DAYS. 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR DOES HOWEVER INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS
NRN PENN IN THE MORNING...AND A RIBBON OF 50-60 KT SHEAR ACRS
SOUTHERN PENN LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DY2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY FOR GENERAL
THUNDER...WITH THE STG-SVR STORM THREAT LIMITED BY THE APPARENT
LACK OF DEEP LYR MSTR/AVG PWS AND CAPE. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS INCREASED TO A SEE TEXT /OR EVEN A COMPACT SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS PENN/ WITH LATER UPDATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING AND A RELATIVE MIN OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE STATE AFTER 21Z WED...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER /50-70
PERCENT/ WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY VARYING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
BY 12Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 13-14Z. FOG MAY
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT KIPT WITH THICKEST FOG SETTLED IN THE WIDE
RIVER VALLEY THERE.
FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE SE HALF OF
CWA...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NW WILL BRING
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MID/LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS AROUND KBFD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSS FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
SCT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS /MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/. SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY NW.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
941 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IL SW TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
STATE. HRRR FURTHER CONCURS WITH THIS SOLUTION SO OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASED PARTIAL CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
OTW...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MID STATE NE TO PA. INSTABILITY
CHARTS REVEAL THAT NOT MUCH OF ANY CAPE RETURN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WITH THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...NO POPS WILL BE ADDED TO TODAY`S FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
SO...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE A LITTLE ADDED CLOUD COVER TO
THE GRIDS. UPDATES WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE, WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
TENNESSEE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING RADIATION FOG AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, LOOK
FOR VFR WX ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE
VIRGINIAS ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO OKLAHOMA, WAS KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 2AM, TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TODAY TO
KEEP US LOCKED INTO OUR CURRENT RAIN-FREE PATTERN. WITH MAXIMUM
PERCENT SUNSHINE EXPECTED, BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO THE SAME LEVELS AS YESTERDAY. CSV MAY EVEN BREAK THEIR 3-DAY
STREAK OF MAXING OUT AT 83 DEGREES, AND NUDGE ON UP TO 84.
YARDS AND GARDENS OVER MANY AREAS ARE NEEDING RAIN PRETTY BADLY AND,
FORTUNATELY, WE HAVE REASON TO BE HOPEFUL FOR A GRADUAL CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. IF WE LOOK TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, UP OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WE SEE NOCTURNAL TSTMS IN PROGRESS, AND A HINT
OF THE CHANGES THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.
LOOK FOR EASTERN MISSOURI TO BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. AS INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW, AND KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND AS A LOW LEVEL COL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OUT OF MISSOURI INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TN, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY HERE INT EH MID-STATE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE STORMS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WON`T DO US ANY GOOD, SINCE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING MORE
SOUTHWARD THAT EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT BEST CAPE TO BE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT
AND THEN SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN KY AND
NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED RW/TRW
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT, ENHANCED BY A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN OUR NORTHWEST BY 12Z WED.
AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, CAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS). MEANWHILE, EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO FIRE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
SOME OF THOSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR CWA AND MAY NOT PENETRATE OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DYING OUT.
BY THURSDAY, CAPES OVER OUR AREA INCREASE TO 2500+ J/KG, AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD AND KICK OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH OUR HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OUR HIGH TEMPS ON
THU WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVERHEAD. WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS GIVING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPS
FOR THUR, AM HESITANT TO SHAVE TOO MUCH OFF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
THUS, WILL PROBABLY ONLY LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS BY 1 OR 2 DEGS.
MOS POPS AREN`T MUCH HELP WITH THIS TYPE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN, AND TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE RAIN CHANCE. THEREFORE, WILL GO
QUITE A BIT ABOVE MOS POP NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RATHER THAN GO WITH THE 20-30% MOS POPS FOR THU, WILL GO MORE LIKE
30-50%.
LONG TERM...AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BELIEVE GFS IS NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. IT SEEMS TO KEEP MAX TEMPS TOO WARM. ON THE OTHER
HAND, DON`T REALLY BUY THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH A GENERALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR CLIMO NORMS. REGARDING POPS IN THE
EXTENDED, BELIEVE THE MEX NUMBERS MAY BE A BIT HIGH AND WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD CLIMO BY THE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
956 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
NEARLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING TO FORECAST HIGHS.
A COUPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT
SEEING MUCH A TRIGGER...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THIS CLOUD DECK ERODES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS
SOME AND RAISE THE CLOUD BASES.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE 250 MB JET MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH
INCREASES TO 100 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WISCONSIN BEFORE MOVING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PUTS SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS A RESULT UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MOST MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM DOES BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
REACHES 1000 JOULES/KG ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER WITH LESS
THAN 200 JOULES/KG NEAR SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS DRY THROUGH 19Z WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. THE 00Z
HIGH RES WRF/ARW DOES BRING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG...WITH A FEW AREAS DENSE...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING TODAY.
THE FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH
DAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...AROUND 100 TO 300
J/KG... ON WEDNESDAY...THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGHER VALUES
OF 700-900 J/KG CAPE ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE
MORE DISTINCT AND AGREED UPON BETWEEN MODELS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS THE BEST
DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10C TO 12C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 19C
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO 14C
AND 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 22C BY MONDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS. A FEW
SPOTS WILL BE AROUND 1/4 MILE. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. THEN MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MAINLY VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS [POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET MAX.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NERN SONORA WITH
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH THE BULK OF CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS PER THE 05/20Z RUC HRRR SOLUTION. CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT.
DRY GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL WED-THUR AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. VARIOUS 05/12Z NWP MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WED VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INHERITED POPS WERE REDUCED SOMEWHAT...FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR THUR...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR SE OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-SAFFORD-SIERRA VISTA
LINE.
THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 05/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING THE TIMING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL RETURN TO SE AZ. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM FAVORED FRI
AS A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...THE
ECMWF FAVORED SAT...AND THIS VERSION OF THE GFS DELAYED THE ONSET OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL SUN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A GRADUAL DAILY INCREASE IN SHOWERS/
TSTMS FRI-SUN. THUS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUN. A FAIRLY DEEP GENERALLY SELY FLOW
REGIME IS PROGGED TO OCCUR MON-TUE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CENTERED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD THE DAILY CYCLE OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO EXIST TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
MON-TUE.
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL DAILY COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THUR-
SAT FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 7/00Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE FAR SE AZ/FAR SW NEW MEXICO BORDER
EAST OF KDUG ENDING AROUND 06/03Z. ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY AT 8-12K FT AGL EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 60S F. THESE
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 5-15 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE
TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS THIS TIME MON.
05/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER WAS 0.78 INCH...AND THIS
VALUE WAS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. 05/12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AND A WEAK TROUGH WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT GENERALLY
WLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.
05/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND 05/14Z RUC HRRR WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING A FEW PRECIP ECHOES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY. BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY REGIME...ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POP/WEATHER
FIELDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...PLEASE REFER TO
THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 6/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 214 AM MST/...BY THURSDAY THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL TAP INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. IN ADDITION...
DISTURBANCES MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
ACTIVITY. SO...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH BASICALLY SCATTERED TYPE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BACK TO AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNINGS...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE PUSHING
NORTHEAST. SOME CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING BETWEEN A THIRD TO A
HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 15-30 MINUTES...WITH STRONGER
CELLS PRODUCING OVER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A CURRENT PW
VALUES HOVERING ABOUT AN INCH RIGHT NOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO START
LOWERING AS DRIER AIR...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PUSHING EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOVEMENT ON THESE STORMS
ARE AROUND 15 KTS...SO FLOOD THREAT AT THIS POINT IS THERE IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL AREA WIDE IS LOW. TRAINING STORMS COULD
CREATE A PROBLEM. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WITH ANOTHER THREAT UP
OVER LARIMER COUNTY AS CONVECTION IS FORMING A TRAINING LINE.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE STORMS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THERE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY OUT EAST TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA
BORDER...WHERE STORMS OUT HERE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
FOR SMALL HAIL...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE STRENGTH STORM THREAT IS
LOW.
AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT UPWARD TO LIGHT DOWNWARD. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE
HINTS FROM THE HIRES RAP MODEL THAT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY PUSH BACK INTO COLORADO TONIGHT TO KEEP
CONVECTION GOING....AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN
WITH CURRENT STRENGTH AND MOTION OF THE STORMS OUT THERE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW WITH DRIER PW VALUES
EXPECTED. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS STABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WITH MORE SUNLIGHT EXPECTED TOMORROW HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO NEARLY
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY. LESS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES IN AND
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH
FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS TAIL END OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A
GREELEY TO DENVER LINE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR
ANY FOG APPEARS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS. ON THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A BIT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. CENTER OF THE HIGH TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
PLAINS TO PROVIDE UPSLOPE IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...
TAIL END OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THUS...
SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE NORTHEAST
OF GREELEY AND DENVER WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE
MOST AREAS. LATEST MODELS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SORT OF
MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE EVENING...PUSHING INTO
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR
FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. OTHERWISE... MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER
WEST... MAINLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR PLAINS. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ELONGATED UPPER HIGH
OVER COLORADO WITH THE CENTER OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. APPEARS A
BATCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. BY TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. FLOW ALOFT
TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY...WITH MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS GOING MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONVECTION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA AIRPORTS
THROUGH ABOUT 24Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRODUCING
VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NEEDING INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN FOR A SHORT TIME. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN
TO DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED
TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER 18Z TO TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...UP TO HALF AN INCH IN 15 MINUTES...WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS THAT MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH AS TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING LOW...EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF TRAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER A
BURN SCAR OR STEEP TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH MID
EVENING AND SHOULD BE DONE BY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SCATTERED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FLOODING APPEARS LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLED IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE EARLIER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED. THIS STORM PRODUCED WIND
DAMAGE NEAR HEWITT`S LANDING.
MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT (ENHANCING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE) AND THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT) ...CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EAST.
IT LOOKS AS IF THIS AREA OF RAIN MIGHT STAY JUST FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST HRRR HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH ALL OF THE
EVENING...INCLUDING THUNDER.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AROUND 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES OVER 6.0 C/KM...AND
ALREADY HISTORY OF ONE DAMAGING WIND THUNDERSTORM AND SMALL
HAIL...WE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED QUALIFIER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING..."MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL."
SO THROUGH EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(MEANING NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT SOME
AREAS GET A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY). IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...COOLING TO THE 70S LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAINFALL COOLS THE COLUMN.
THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ALL
TOGETHER AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING (THE JET EXIT REGION) LIFTS NORTH
AND INSTABILITY DISSIPATES.
THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO FORM.
HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT THIS.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG TONIGHT PENDING HOW MUCH
RAINFALLS AND MAKES THE GROUND WET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST AND
LOWER 60S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEWAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AS SOON AS WE GET HEATING...MAINLY MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALBANY NORTH...LOW CHANCES SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION...WENT WITH THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (MORE CLOUDS
SOUTH).
ANY AND ALL CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. DID PUT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE WIND LOOKS CALMER AND
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO 50S.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL WORK THROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ISOLATED CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD.
THE DAY WILL START OUT MAINLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS AND THE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...MAYBE A POINT OR TWO LOWER.
IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME RATHER COOL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO
UPPER 40S FURTHER NORTH.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER WEATHER WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY (FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER
CU) AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE LAST DAY...THIS WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE
ROOST THROUGHOUT. ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT FROM MOSTLY THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE VALLEYS. FOR THIS PERIOD...NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S...NORMAL LOWS...AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE MVFR/IFR FOG RETURNS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED SPAWN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5-7 KFT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS WITH TEMPO
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES
WILL CLEAR ALLOWING FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TO RETURN TO THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS FROM ANY
CONVECTION.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL TREND CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5
KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING...WITH ABOUT
HALF THE PLACES RECEIVING A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...BUT
AREAS NOT RECEIVING ANY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL STILL BE WORKING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT AND RH VALUES GENERALLY
35-45 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW
MOVING...AND BACKBUILDING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH PER HOUR. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WITH THESE TYPE OF STORMS...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOMORROW BUT ANY EXCESS RAINFALL WILL
PROBABLY BE EVEN MORE LIMITED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH ON THURSDAY...GENERALLY WITH AN AVERAGE
RAINFALL BASIN OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE BERTHA PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST DURING
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
MONITORING BOTH KENX AND KOKX RADARS...SAW A LONELY SHOWER MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO CENTRAL NH BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 14Z.
ALSO SEE A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ALONG DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTING LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AND POSSIBLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS S CT...BUT AGAIN WILL MONITOR.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN STEADILY SINCE SUNRISE...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT 15Z...UP TO 84 AT KFIT. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE CLOSE TO
FORECASTED TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BERTHA TO THE SE WHILE A BROAD-TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR /H85-H3/ BETWEEN THE TWO
COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H3 JET SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND INTO AFTERNOON. BUT
WITH THE WESTERN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD H5 TROUGH...EXPECT THE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ENHANCED ASCENT ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W MA / CT AND SW NH. COULD ALSO SEE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
CONSIDERING INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR...ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
NOTING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG
WITH A COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...
FEEL THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
THE MID-80S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE MID-60S. COOLER ALONG
THE SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO S NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS N/W INTERIOR...WEAKENING OVER TIME WITH THE
LACK OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FALLING HEIGHTS / CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE
COASTLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOUPY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-60S MAINTAINED
BY SW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW-CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF S/SE NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SHORELINES. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP AREAS
OF THE N/W INTERIOR FOG-FREE. LOWS NW-SE RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S TO
UPPER-60S.
WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY...IGNORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN. BELIEVE THE OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
MAINLY ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SWEEPS
THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL BROAD TROUGH...FALLING HEIGHTS ARE
INVOKED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H3 CYCLONIC JET...MID-
LEVEL ENHANCED ASCENT...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OF A SOUPY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
PREVAILS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS S/E INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INCORPORATING E MA AND RI.
ASSUMING INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE MET IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF AVERAGE 30 KT W-E UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD YIELD
ORDINARY TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. PWATS RANGE 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES. ONCE AGAIN...NOTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT ALONG WITH A
COMBINATION OF THIN-CAPE AND POTENTIAL INVERTED-V PROFILES...FEEL
THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL /IN PRIORITY OF CONCERN/. A GREATER THREAT OF
URBAN FLOODING IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SHOULD STORMS PERPETUATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MORE S/E WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-70S. COOLER AND DRIER N/W THOUGH LOW-80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER CT-VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REACHING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. TOTALS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID 50S...WITH A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 875 AND 825 MB. EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM A LITTLE FRIDAY BUT SIMILAR MOIST LAYER ALOFT. EXPECT
DIURNAL CLOUDS FRIDAY BUT WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MIXING TO 850
MB THURSDAY AND AT LEAST 825 MB FRIDAY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY. GFS SUGGESTS SEA BREEZE
EACH DAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO CONFLICT WITH THIS THURSDAY
BUT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF SUPPORTS SEA BREEZES BOTH DAYS
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT
LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE COAST.
TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL AND SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIR
WEATHER DAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM RACES OUT TO SEA
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OUR WAY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT LOCAL MVFR-IFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS KACK THROUGH 18Z OR SO. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAINLY W-SW. SEA
BREEZES FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DISSIPATING AROUND 3Z ACROSS INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND.
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY FOR S/E NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINES.
WEDNESDAY...
MVFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS DISSIPATE. SEA-BREEZES AROUND 15Z BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR E/SE MA AND ALL OF RI.
ACTIVITY FURTHER W POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SEA BREEZE THROUGH
22Z-23Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY THURSDAY.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AS BERTHA MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
S/SE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE.
THE DELAY IN SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY WILL LIMIT THE RIP
CURRENT RISK...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VSBYS AGAIN BELOW 1SM IN SOME AREAS MAINLY S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LINGERING CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING 5 FOOT SWELL ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FROM TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. IT APPEARS OUR CAP
MIGHT BE BREAKING ALREADY. THE BUF RAOB INDICATED LESS CAPPING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT BEGINS COOLING OFF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STORMS COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER ON.
WE WERE FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING TOWARD EXTREME
SW NY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE WOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
MAKE INTO OUR REGION AROUND 00Z-02Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT. THIS IDEA WAS
NOT SUPPORT BY LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS NOR THE LOCAL HIRESWRF. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT.
THE CLUSTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WILL MAKE IT INTO A PORTION OF
AREA THIS EVENING...ASSUMING IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE THREAT WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0
C/KM...AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE MVFR/IFR FOG RETURNS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED SPAWN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5-7 KFT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS WITH TEMPO
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES
WILL CLEAR ALLOWING FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TO RETURN TO THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS FROM ANY
CONVECTION.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL TREND CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5
KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
0100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. IT APPEARS OUR CAP
MIGHT BE BREAKING ALREADY. THE BUF RAOB INDICATED LESS CAPPING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT BEGINS COOLING OFF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STORMS COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER ON.
WE WERE FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING TOWARD EXTREME
SW NY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE WOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
MAKE INTO OUR REGION AROUND 00Z-02Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT. THIS IDEA WAS
NOT SUPPORT BY LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS NOR THE LOCAL HIRESWRF. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT.
THE CLUSTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WILL MAKE IT INTO A PORTION OF
AREA THIS EVENING...ASSUMING IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE THREAT WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0
C/KM...AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW RADIATION FOG IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VARIOUS WEB CAMS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD
BE GONE FROM THE TAF SITES BY 13Z EXCEPT KPSF WHERE IT MAY LINGER
UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 19Z
OR 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TAF SITES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1231 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION. COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...ONE SHOWER BRIEFLY POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY...WHILE A FEW MORE OVER THE CATSKILLS. WE BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE MORE RANDOM POP UP SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO
THE THUNDERSTORMS. OUR ALY RAOB INDICATED WE WERE CAPPED SO
INITIALLY CELLS SHOULD NOT GROW THAT TALL. HOWEVER...THE BUF RAOB
INDICATED LESS CAPPING AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT BEGINS COOLING OFF
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER ON.
WE WERE FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING TOWARD EXTREME
SW NY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE WOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
MAKE INTO OUR REGION AROUND 00Z-02Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT. THIS IDEA WAS
NOT SUPPORT BY LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS NOR THE LOCAL HIRESWRF. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT.
THE CLUSTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WILL MAKE IT INTO A PORTION OF
AREA THIS EVENING...ASSUMING IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER.
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE THREAT WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0
C/KM...AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HRRR DEPICTS WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12PM-2PM...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENERIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING AND ADVANCING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ONE LAST LINGERING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND THE UPPER COLD POOL
BRUSH JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY SUPPORTING
ONE LAST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. COOLING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WITH AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WE WILL DEALING WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SO WILL MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BEFORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
SUSPECT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS INDICATING
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW RADIATION FOG IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VARIOUS WEB CAMS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD
BE GONE FROM THE TAF SITES BY 13Z EXCEPT KPSF WHERE IT MAY LINGER
UNTIL 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 19Z
OR 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT TAF SITES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. NIGHTTIME RH VALUES
SHOULD BE 70 TO 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...MOST RIVER BASINS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IMPACT. SOME RISES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
207 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1013 AM CDT
NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO TRAP THIS
MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE MADE NO
CHANGES TO GOING HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT DID SLOW THE
TEMP RISE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
CLOUDINESS. ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
DO NOT SHOW ANY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...MODIFYING THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING FOR
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS YIELDS SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF
MLCAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...SO STILL POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND JET STREAK DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS
SOUTHEAST OF A PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO GARY INDIANA LINE AS OF 3 AM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV PROPAGATE
INTO INDIANA. HARD TO PLACE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN
LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATED SURFACE WIND
FIELD...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH OF KORD TO KDKB
TO SOUTH OF KSQI IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...WITH LITTLE PUSH
TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO DOWNSTATE IL/IN. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
90 KT UPPER JET STREAK THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA...AS 2+ INCH PWATS SPREAD NORTH. GFS/WRF BOTH
DELIVER MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THIS
TIME.
FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH FAVORS DRY WEATHER
AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY REMAINING IN
THE 70S. OTHERWISE AROUND 80/LOWER 80S APPEAR REASONABLE. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OFF THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE COOLER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
* TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A VERY SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR STL TO GYY TO
DET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THIS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH THE LATTER STILL CONTINUING AT A
FEW AIRPORTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT AND EVEN SCATTER BY LATER IN THE DAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED AT
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES...HELPED BY A MESOSCALE INCREASE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE AND A SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST PUSH. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN SPEED TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE LOW
FOR MIDDAY DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS AFTER DARK. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS AT THIS TIME.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 KT BY 21Z.
* HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FT.
* LOW IN MVFR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN WIND SPEEDS AND TIMING OF 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF/RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CDT
WEAK FLOW IS OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE
LAKE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST.
WINDS REMAIN EAST AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THE NEXT LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL WEAK FLOW CONTINUES WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
Will update the forecast today to adjust sky cover with more low
clouds from Peoria north today and cooler highs in the lower 80s.
Will continue 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over
eastern IL this afternoon. Seasonably warm highs in the mid 80s
over much of CWA with upper 80s near Lawrenceville and Robinson by
Wabash river valley. Rather humid today with dewpoints in the mid
60s to near 70F with lowest dewpoints in southeast IL.
Short wave that brought locally heavy rains of 1.5-3.5 inches
around the Peoria metro area last night has shifted east and south
of central IL late this morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms have exited southeast IL during mid morning so by
late morning ILX CWA is dry. Low clouds of 500-1200 feet from
Peoria north while patches of clouds above 3k ft over eastern IL
from I-57 east. 10 am temps range from near 70F far ne CWA by
Lacon and Danville where clouds prevail, to upper 70s from
Springfield sw where more sunshine this morning. Dewpoints range
from mid 60s over eastern IL to near 70F from Macomb to
Springfield west.
A frontal boundary just se of the IL river will continue to press
slowly se into southeast IL later today. Even though we are on
back side of short wave exiting se of IL today, the boundary could
develop isolated convection this afternoon as it pushes through
areas se of I-55. SPC has 5% risk of severe storms this afternoon
and into tonight over Nebraska and western IA and then has 5% risk
of severe hail/wind over central IL Wed afternoon/evening and
slight chance of severe storms (15% of large hail and damaging
wind gusts) sw of a Canton to Lincoln line.
HUETTL
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Scattered showers associated with a short-wave trough will
continue to work their way east/southeast across the KILX CWA
early this morning. Most of the precip will be east of the I-55
corridor by 12z, then into Indiana by 18z as trough passes to the
east. Subsidence on the back side of the wave should lead to a
mostly dry afternoon, although HRRR is hinting that a few
additional showers may fire across the E/NE during the afternoon.
Will go with isolated to scattered wording for today, as areal
coverage will be rather limited. Morning clouds will gradually
clear, with partly sunny conditions expected later in the day.
Will be another warm/humid day with highs once again reaching the
middle 80s.
A lull in the precip chances will occur this afternoon through the
evening as short-wave ridging prevails. The next in a series of
waves will begin to approach from the northwest overnight, with
all model solutions showing a large area of showers/thunder
developing along/north of a stalled frontal boundary draped across
Iowa. Precip will begin to push into the Illinois River Valley
toward dawn Wednesday, so will carry low chance PoPs after
midnight along/northwest of the Illinois River with dry conditions
elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of
central Illinois on Wednesday, primarily impacting locations west
of the I-57 corridor. Will carry likely PoPs across the west,
tapering down to low chance along the Indiana border accordingly.
SPC has indicated that a slight risk for severe storms may develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into
southwest Illinois. This severe risk is contingent upon vigorous
short-wave currently over Utah maintaining its strength as it
approaches from the west Wednesday evening. NAM remains most
aggressive with this feature, while GFS is quite a bit weaker. If
stronger NAM verifies, enough lift will be generated along/south
of surface boundary within the unstable and moderately sheared
airmass to support a few strong to severe storms with large
hail/gusty winds across the southwest CWA Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more
numerous across the entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as
upper wave tracks across the area and interacts with the stalled
frontal boundary and very moist airmass.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the Thursday wave passes to the east, frontal boundary will
begin to get pushed southward by the end of the week. Models
continue to struggle with this evolution, but general consensus
shifts best precip chances into the Ohio River Valley on Friday,
then even further south over the weekend. As a result, will focus
chance PoPs across only the southern CWA on Friday. After that,
Saturday and Sunday appear to be largely dry before the next
potential wave approaches within the prevailing northwesterly flow
pattern early next week. Will therefore go with a dry forecast
during the weekend, with low chance PoPs returning by Monday.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MVFR ceilings to occur over central IL airports next few hours and
gradaully lift to VFR ceilings or even scattered out especially at
SPI and DEC. A frontal boundary near I-72 will slowly move into
southeast IL later this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
to occur over east central and se IL this afternoon with CMI and
DEC having best chances of seeing this, but feel chances are too
low to even mention VCTS. Another short wave diving se into IL
late tonight and Wed to likely return chances of showers and
thunderstorms starting at PIA at 10Z along I-55 from 11z-12Z and
DEC and CMI from 13-14Z. Have MVFR ceilings and vsbys arriving by
Wed morning with the rain and some fog also possible. West winds
near 5 kts along I-72 to turn NE early this afternoon as front
slips south of I-72. Expect NE winds to remain light tonight and
near 5 kts Wed morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUETTL
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...HUETTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH IT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SMALL DIP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE EXTREME WEST THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND UPPED THEM TO HIGH END OF CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. RAIN IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES EAST SO KEPT LOWER POPS EAST.
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WEAKENS...AND LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL THINK POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THUS GENERALLY
KEPT POPS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM THE
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY NORTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT SHRINKING AS THEY DO. THESE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE IN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LESS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THUS KEPT POPS AT CHANCE/SCATTERED OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LESS COVERAGE
BUT PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TRIED TO TIME THE
POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF KEEPING THINGS DRY
WITH RAP SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL BUT THE BEST FORCING
STAYING FAR FROM THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE CONSENSUS
NUMBERS DID A GOOD JOB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED WITH SOME POPS AS A CARRYOVER FROM TODAY AS
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT. BY LATE TONIGHT WENT DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING PRESENT. FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THIS
RUN. NOT READY TO BUY THIS FULL ON SINCE LAST NIGHT/S RUNS HAD
WEDNESDAY LOOKING FAIRLY WET. THUS BLENDED PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE A COMPROMISE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO THE FRONT WHOSE EXACT POSITION IS STILL VARIABLE BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE. IF THE SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OR RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. FOR
THURSDAY/S HIGHS THOUGH WENT LOWER THAN THE MODEL AVERAGE TO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND OP GFS WHICH BOTH HAD MAINTAINED A
MORE SUPPRESSED LOCATION TO THE BOUNDARY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW PLACING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...CARRYING PRECIP
CHANCES REMAINS WARRANTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS.
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS REINTRODUCING POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE THIS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT. NERVELESS I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THAT THESE CEILINGS
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION. FOR NOW WILL BRING IN 2 THOUSAND
SCATTERED WITH MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON.
A WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION
VCTS IN TAFS.
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
NORTH TO NORTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2014
...Updated Short Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
The primary focus will be convection this evening and how expansive
it will be this evening across western Kansas. Water vapor loop
early this afternoon showed a substantial mid level dry intrusion
into the southwestern CONUS which was pushing northeastward through
Colorado. RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed middle
troposphere from the primary vorticity anomaly across
central/northern California...eastward through Utah and into
Colorado. A 250mb jet streak continued to nose northeastward into
southern California through southern Utah. A lee trough convergence
axis was found across far southeastern Colorado into far
northwestern Kansas. This was on the western periphery of deep mid
level moisture plume. All the short-term high resolution models
suggest convection continuing to develop along the lee trough
convergence axis and also over terrain-favored regions of Colorado.
There is the suggestion that the most organized of lee trough
convection will stay just north of the DDC forecast area from far
west-central KS into northwestern KS. Both the 12Z WRF ARW and NMMB
show a cluster of pseudo-organized convection rolling east-southeast
reaching roughly a Leoti to Gove line by around 06Z. The best of the
lee trough convergence will be farther north, so it would make sense
that the high resolution models are keeping the most sustained
convection across northwestern Kansas. Other less organized
convection farther south may last through sunset, but not much after
that. We will keep Chance POPs confined to far west-central KS
(Kearny to Scott County). South winds tonight averaging 12 to 15
knots will keep the boundary layer mixed enough through the night
that temperatures will likely plateau during the 06-12Z time frame
in the lower 70s along/east of Highway 283. The trough axis will
shift east Wednesday with lighter winds much of the day across much
of southwest Kansas. Weak convergence along the trough may yield
late afternoon convection, but only loosely organized convection at
best can be expected with the deep frontogenetic forcing still north
of the southwest Kansas region through late afternoon Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
No significant changes were made to the extended period of the
forecast. Wednesday night, and through the overnight into Thursday
morning will present chances for convection along a weak boundary
and area of surface low pressure over western Kansas. The model
signals for this suggest the best chances for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be across central Kansas where instability and
CAPE will be greater. Any storms along this convergence zone should
end by Thursday morning across the south central Kansas counties
rendering Thursday dry for most of the day. Convection will again be
possible in the far west on Thursday evening and through the night
as it forms diurnally along the high terrain of eastern Colorado
with the aid of upslope surface flow and higher dew points around
60 degrees or more.
Beyond Friday, the region will remain in a fairly westerly zonal
pattern but also not a particularly strong surface gradient, leading
to relatively light winds. As the region will remain fairly rich
ion surface moisture and warm, any local areas of uncapped
convergence could set off afternoon convection lasting into the very
early evening through about Tuesday. However chances as far as areal
coverage are concerned should be fairly minimal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
South winds will remain fairly strong through the afternoon,
averaging 18 to 22 knots sustained through early evening before
decreasing to around 12 to 15 knots later this evening. A fairly
strong pressure gradient by summer standards will persist through
the night, keeping surface winds up around 15 knots at HYS and
DDC. The latest indications from high-resolution short term models
is that loosely organized thunderstorms late this
afternoon/evening will move slowly through west-central Kansas
during the mid to late evening hours, but weaken or dissolve
entirely late tonight. It does not seem likely that convection
will impact any of the terminals, except perhaps GCK (being
farther west).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 94 67 92 / 10 20 20 10
GCK 67 94 66 92 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 67 94 66 95 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 69 95 68 97 / 10 20 20 10
HYS 70 96 67 93 / 30 20 30 10
P28 71 94 70 95 / 10 20 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
110 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A NICE EARLY AUGUST DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWERS
DOWN TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR. SOME PESKY LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MILL AROUND DOWN THAT WAY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS WITH BOUTS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
NORTH CONTINUE TO SEE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SAID WAVE. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BLOSSOMING OF
SOME CUMULUS BENEATH WEAKISH THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE. NOT AT ALL CONVINCED WE WILL REALIZE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY LOOKS A SHADE
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY PER 12Z APX RAOB...INDICATIVE OF DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIXING OUT BACK THROUGH THE LOWER 50S WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN LITTLE
THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL TAKE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING TO JUST SQUEEZE BY THE CAP UP AROUND 600
MB. IF THAT`S GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWHERE IT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESIDE
OFF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY...BUT EVEN THERE THE CHANCE IS QUITE
LOW. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE `ISOLATED` RANGE WHILE ALSO
RAISING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS BASED OFF
YESTERDAY`S READINGS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...NOT TO MENTION
CURRENT OBS ALREADY WITHIN 5-7 DEGREES OF GOING HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
IMPACTS: LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
NO SURPRISE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...AND RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR WAS DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NOSING INTO EASTERN UPPER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN LOWER AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE WAS AN AXIS OF INCREASED H8 MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
FRONT STILL HOLDING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32...WITH AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
THERE...BUT NO THUNDER THUS FAR. THERE IS JUST A LACK OF INSTABILITY
(WHICH REMAINS NEARER THE SFC FRONT IN SRN LOWER).
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
STILL FACING THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST. THIS
REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YESTERDAYS NON-ACTION WAS A
LITTLE SURPRISING BUT RESULTED IN A QUICK LOOK BACK AT DATA. THE 00Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 750MB THAN WHAT WAS
SUGGESTED IN YESTERDAYS DATA. MODELS HAVE OVER-FORECASTED BL
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRIER
H8 AIR SWEEPING DOWN INTO US BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS WHICH
WILL DEPART BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET NO
PRECIP WEATHER. HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE (ALSO RUNNING TOO COOL) IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCORRECT INCREASED MOISTURE DEVELOPING
AROUND H8 (A FUNCTION OF CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE MODELS)...WHAT
IS MORE LIKELY IS FOR VERY SHALLOW RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
WAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION DUE TO CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT DECENTLY AGAIN (BUT
CURRENT RAINS WILL ADD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY). FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT (WHICH SEEMS ODD CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOW RIDGING)...AND SFC BASED DEW POINTS (OUTSIDE OF WHERE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS RESIDE) ARE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS...EVEN TAKING A FAIRLY DRY PARCEL...MODIFICATION
RESULTS IN SNEAKING BY A WEAK CAP ALOFT AROUND 600MB. 400-800 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER (WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
MAXIMIZE). CAN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FIRING OFF...WITH NOTHING IN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
MACKINAC COUNTY DUE TO TOO DRY OF AIR. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FADE OFF THROUGH EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS RATHER LOW. WILL END ALL
SHOWERS BY MID/LATE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
...QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
OVERVIEW...THE BASICS OF THE PATTERN ARE GOING TO MOVE WITH THEM
ONLY REESTABLISHING THEMSELVES BY NEXT WEEK. SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL
BE THAT THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...
(8/6)WEDNESDAY AND (8/7)THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH <30% AND 850 MB RH
<50%). THIS LEAVES THE REGION RAIN FREE. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, AT LEAST ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS TRIES TO
RAM RAIN NORTH INTO THE SW COUNTIES LATE ON SATURDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE ECMWF
IS THE BETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AS THE 500MB RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. IT NOT UNTIL
(8/10)SUNDAY THAT WE BEGIN TO GET A CHANGE FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED.
WHILE THE DAY AND NIGHT STILL REMAIN DRY, A 500 MB TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MARCH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS,
IN THIS CASE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MONDAY POPS AND CONTINUE THEM
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS TOWARD
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A THICKER PERIOD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
AROUND KAPN UP THROUGH ABOUT 19Z...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT WITH TIME. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SHALLOW
GROUND/RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN SPOTS...MOST PRONOUNCED
AROUND THE KMBL TERMINAL. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN INDICATING. BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE FLATTENING RIDGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THE 315K SURFACE AND PW`S NEAR
2.00" SHOULD LAY OUT 1-2"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. FORECASTED QPF VALUES
HAVE HAD FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BULLSEYE
AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
SFC LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND HUGS THE WESTERN KS/NE
BORDER BY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND FORCING FROM ANOTHER WEAK APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER IN THE DAY OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
INTERMITTENT PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA BEFORE 06Z WOULD BE AT KOFK...
AND WILL WRITE TAFS THAT WAY. MAY LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSRA AT
KOMA AND KLNK FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL BEING
MOSTLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SURE ENOUGH A MID-LVL SHWR HAS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AND PULSED UP
NEAR NORTON KS /NRN/ BUT IT IS ALREADY FADING. HAVE INTRODUCED A
20% POP S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES FROM NOW THRU EARLY AFTERNOON TO
ACCT FOR WHAT COULD BE JUST SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DWPTS YESTERDAY SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
AND LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S DDC SOUNDING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WX
FCST WITH THE LOWER RH LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED TO KEEP
FCST TEMP/DWPT TRENDS ON TRACK WITH REALITY. ALSO BRUSHED UP
CLOUDS THRU 00Z AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK THRU 19Z. WE HAVE NOTED
THE HRRR ENSEMBLE AND THE NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A SHWR OR TSTM
THIS MORNING IN THE MCK REGION AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST FEW VIS SAT PICS DO SHOW SOME CU AND/OR ACCAS. WE WILL CONT
TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND THE FCST AS IT IS CURRENTLY
DRY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED IN SPOTS
BUT SO FAR THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BEEN 3 TO 5 MILES.
THE FIRST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WILL GET INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IF THE FOG WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY BY MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT EXPECT
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH OR NORTHEAST. SO FAR
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN ABOVE 3 MILES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
ALSO A 40KT LOWLEVEL JET ORIENTED TOWARDS THE MO RIVER MAY SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SREF INSTABILITY PROGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND IF STORMS
CAN GO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM FASTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE PROGRESSION. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PCPN CHANCES
DECREASE N/S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THERMAL PROGS/TEMP PROFILES ON THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND FOR FORECAST HIGHS WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED NE/SW.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THAN OTHER MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS WHEREAS NAM SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND KEPT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS IN OUR SW ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME RETURNING BY DAY
7. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF WAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WHICH WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THIS
BEING SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MORE PROMISING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH BKN CIRROSTRATUS AROUND 20K FT. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z WHEN SCT
TSTMS DEVELOP TO THE W. SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A VFR OR MVFR TSTM BETWEEN 03Z-09Z.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DEBRIS INVADE PRIMARILY ABOVE 10K FT. SE WINDS
SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KTS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 08Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM
WED MORNING: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CEILINGS DEPARTING TO THE E.
LLWS ENDS BY 14Z. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A FEW MINOR UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TD/T/CLOUD TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS SOLID. STILL
ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CURRENTLY FAVORING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK DRY LINE AND/OR NORTH OF THE
LIFTING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PWATS WILL BE
1.50" OR GREATER OVER MOST LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN STORMS. SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DEEP SHEAR...BUT SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
INCREASE TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE STORM ROTATION AND A BRIEF HAILER OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH 21Z.
BEYOND 21Z CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS MOST LIKELY IMPACTING THE KVTN TERMINAL FIRST...THEN FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST TO BRING A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE KLBF
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD DROP CEILINGS
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TERMINALS. HOW LOW TO GO IS THE
MAIN QUESTION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A FEW MINOR UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TD/T/CLOUD TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS SOLID. STILL
ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CURRENTLY FAVORING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK DRY LINE AND/OR NORTH OF THE
LIFTING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PWATS WILL BE
1.50" OR GREATER OVER MOST LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN STORMS. SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DEEP SHEAR...BUT SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
INCREASE TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE STORM ROTATION AND A BRIEF HAILER OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP. NONE OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS BUT GIVEN THE COLD POOL WHICH FORMED IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS SRN SD...THIS WOULD APPEAR
LOGICAL. THUS THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGHER/LIKELY
POP IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLD COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED
MOST OF THE DAY. H700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL THROUGHOUT THE FCST
AREA AT LESS THAN 14C.
THE NAM INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SWRN COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS...NAM AND SREF INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED OR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE. THE RAP KEEPS IT AT 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH THE 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE RAP STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NERN COLO.
A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY MODEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH 30 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. K INDICES RISE TO
40C OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SURGE AND ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PARADE
EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED MID
WEEK...WARMING TO THE LOW 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 60S...AS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
IFR ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21Z
ONWARD...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STORM ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS
SWRN COLO LIFTS INTO THE SANDHILLS. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED FROM 06Z ONWARD AND BECOME SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING FROM 04Z ONWARD ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS ALSO.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON GRIDS AND PRODUCTS EARLIER.
WILL TWEAK THINGS AGAIN BY AROUND 1 PM OR SO. RECENT HRRR MODEL
RUNS DEPICT STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BASED ON THE PATTERN...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS A FEW STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
TIMING AND EXTENT OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN AND CHALLENGE.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
BORDER STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. NEW DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING OVER
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND OMAHA SINCE 07Z.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY LOCATION CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INITIALLY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES COME ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE PUSHING THE STRONGER FLOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
AREA. HARD TO CALL ON TIMING OF EVENTS SO A BROADBRUSH OF POPS
COVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA BEFORE 06Z WOULD BE AT KOFK...
AND WILL WRITE TAFS THAT WAY. MAY LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSRA AT
KOMA AND KLNK FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL BEING
MOSTLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
ON WEDNESDAY...STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BACK INTO THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM COVERAGE WILL
SLOWLY START TO INCREASE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
RETURN. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
RECENT WEEKS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO NM PER WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 12Z FGZ SOUNDING. AS SUCH...CONVECTION HAS REALLY
STRUGGLED TO START...OR MAINTAIN ITSELF WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT LIKELY SETTING UP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT HAS
PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WITH THE AID OF A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NM...AND DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO MID
LEVELS...HAVE ALREADY SEEN ONE SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE NE...AND A
FEW MORE STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH STORM MOTIONS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH...THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS CONSIDERABLY DECREASED...THOUGH ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN BIGGER DOWN TICK
IN STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS LOOK TO CRATER TO AROUND 0.50
INCHES...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON THE FGZ SOUNDING THIS AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...AS
SOME DISTURBANCE...LIKELY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION OVER
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NM. PWATS WILL CREEP UP
ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NONETHELESS... A FEW MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE NAM IS
SUGGESTING AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL BE
A FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS
HERE...BUT NOT OVERLY SOLD YET. NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND IT ACROSS THE FAR NE MAY BE A
BETTER BET FOR STORMS.
LOOKING FOR A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
OVER OKLAHOMA...THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS AT BRING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD DESPITE THE FAVORABLE PATTERN. THIS MAY CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
FRIDAY...OTHER THAN THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND STORMS
AROUND. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
AUGUST. LOOKS LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT BACK
OVER NM...DIVERTING THE MOISTURE PLUME WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID LOWER DEWPOINT
VALUES THUS RH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE DYNAMIC DRY SLOT/MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
PATTERN...VEGETATION WILL BE GOING OVERTIME IN TERMS OF
TRANSPIRATION AT NIGHT SO RAISED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINT VALUES SOME
ACROSS THE EAST. MOIST SOILS WILL ALSO KEEP DEWPOINT READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL
BLEND. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS
WED/THUR PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE. THEN MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS SO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO FIRE
STARTS UP THAT BECAUSE OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS WETTING RAIN...OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE PRETTY
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK. A FEW WETTING STORMS
FAVORING THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF WILL OCCUR REST OF TODAY BUT
PRETTY ISOLATED. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CELLS PRETTY LIMITED
WEDNESDAY. A BAGGY TROUGH OR WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW TRANSITION IN TERMS OF
WETTING RAIN COVERAGE BUT THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR BASED ON MODEL
COMPARISONS THE PAST DAY OR SO AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF
YEAR. THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL HAVE SAGGED SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES LOOK FOR IT TO TRY TO
STRENGTHEN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD DUE TO
THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE NECESSARY DRIVERS OR INGREDIENTS WOULD BE
IN PLACE TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD EVENTUALLY WARM SOME BUT
HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEST AND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EAST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL
DRIVERS. THE STRONGEST WIND FOR THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE
TODAY AND FAVOR THE EAST. ANY THUNDER CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
CONTAIN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL/SFC DRYING.
LOOKING AT A RETURN TO SOME HAINES 5/6 VALUES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HAINES 6 MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DECENT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BUT LOWER SOME DURING THE WEEKEND.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL
PLACEMENT WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. STILL LOOKING AT A
BAGGY TROUGH TO THE WEST. THUS...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE ITSELF OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. HOW
MUCH AND EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL A LITTLE TRICKY. ANOTHER FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WOULD BE AN EASTERLY WAVE COMING OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS EASTERLY WAVE WOULD DRAG
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VERSUS
PROVIDING A MOISTENING TREND BUT HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. A PRETTY
TYPICAL PERIOD FOR THE WET PHASE OF THE MONSOON SUMMER PERIOD SO
NOTHING REAL UNUSUAL UPCOMING.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LIMIT SH/TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.
USING VCSH OR TEMPO SH FOR SOME OF THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. FAIRLY DYNAMIC DAY SO LOOK FOR SOME UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD PROBABLY BE THE MAIN IMPACT SO
USING GUSTS TO 30-35 KT BUT CANT RULE OUT STRONGER. SOME OF THE
WETTER STORMS WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EAST OF THE
CNTRL MTNS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE SOON AFTER SUNSET.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 90 56 92 / 5 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 53 86 45 85 / 10 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 53 85 51 84 / 5 5 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 49 86 46 86 / 5 5 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 48 83 44 80 / 5 10 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 52 86 48 84 / 5 5 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 50 83 50 80 / 10 10 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 53 89 58 88 / 10 10 10 10
CHAMA........................... 44 79 43 80 / 20 5 5 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 85 54 82 / 20 5 5 20
PECOS........................... 52 84 54 80 / 10 5 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 81 48 80 / 20 5 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 43 74 44 73 / 20 10 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 78 42 78 / 20 5 5 30
TAOS............................ 50 84 48 85 / 20 5 5 10
MORA............................ 52 84 52 81 / 20 5 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 58 89 58 87 / 10 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 54 84 57 84 / 10 5 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 88 57 88 / 5 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 89 62 88 / 5 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 91 64 90 / 5 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 92 61 92 / 5 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 91 62 91 / 5 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 92 62 91 / 5 5 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 93 62 92 / 5 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 94 65 94 / 10 5 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 87 59 85 / 10 5 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 57 88 59 87 / 10 5 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 86 54 83 / 10 5 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 85 57 86 / 10 5 5 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 59 84 / 20 10 10 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 88 63 86 / 10 5 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 82 58 81 / 20 20 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 54 86 56 83 / 40 10 5 30
RATON........................... 55 89 54 88 / 20 5 5 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 90 53 88 / 20 5 5 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 86 54 85 / 20 5 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 94 63 94 / 30 5 5 20
ROY............................. 61 90 57 88 / 20 5 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 67 97 64 96 / 20 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 94 62 92 / 20 5 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 99 65 99 / 20 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 63 95 65 94 / 10 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 63 96 65 95 / 10 0 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 96 66 94 / 20 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 67 98 67 97 / 10 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 61 90 63 90 / 20 5 10 30
ELK............................. 58 83 63 82 / 20 10 10 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
532 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
STILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS A SLUG
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HRRR HAS THIS AREA WELL HANDLED...AND
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE TRENDS IN MOVING THIS AREA EAST OF OUR
CWA JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE...BUT OTHER THAN
THIS IT APPEARS ANY OTHER SHOWERS BEHIND THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME CLEARING IN WESTERN PORTIONS WHICH COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND A
NOTABLE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TIER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK AND
A HALF WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR AREA...THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SUBJECT TO ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH...WITH THE BULK OF THESE LIKELY COMING BETWEEN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S...THOUGH SOME INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER COULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE
A WELCOME PERIOD OF UNEVENTFUL WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE AXIS OF ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOONS AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS
WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE...THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
LARGELY FEATURE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER. WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF
OUR AIRMASS TAKING PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RECOVER BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S EACH DAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS LARGELY RANGING IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL WORK
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER NOTICEABLY ON
THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...BOTH SUGGEST GENERAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NEW DAY 7...WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLUG OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CLIP ART...OTHERWISE
EXPECT TAF SITES TO STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT
LINGERING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN VFR-MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
GIVEN TIGHT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
ISOLATED -SHRA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TIER 14-20Z WEDNESDAY IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...FEW CONCERNS FOR
MARINE PURPOSES...AS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH SETTING UP A PLEASANT DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE PAST HOUR. AND JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO WE HAD THE FIRST
LIGHTNING STROKE IN THE CELL NORTH OF PLATTSBURGH (WHICH BY THE
WAY HAS A LITTLE BIT OF HAIL WELL ALOFT IN IT).
LATEST LAPS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE FOR MOST OF
VERMONT, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDINESS WHICH HAVE
HELD BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
AS TYPICAL, THE FIRST CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE `DACKS. MOST OF THE 12Z/15Z RUNS OF MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER. THESE CELLS THEN DEVELOP AND PUSH
EAST AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL GREEN
MOUNTAINS ABOUT 18Z. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD THEN MEAN
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE INTO EASTERN VERMONT AFTER
4-5PM. SURFACE FRONT STILL NOT QUITE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS FIRE AHEAD OF THAT. MESO-MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH ANY STRONGER
T-STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP.
SO THE FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY TO TRY TO BETTER
TIME/LOCATE THE HIGHER LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. RELIED ON A
MIX OF BTV4, BTV6 AND HRRR MODELS. BASICALLY MAKES THE NORTHERN
HALF OF VERMONT AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT UP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR VERMONT. BTV
ALREADY REACHED 81F, SO PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE AREA,
WE COULD RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, WE`LL SEE HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ENOUGH ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO KEEP IT INTERESTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FAR
ENOUGH SEWD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER (20 POP) ACROSS PORTIONS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...AND
DRY ELSEWHERE. ALSO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER HUMIDITY BEING USHERED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
50S. 850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +11C SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE/LL NEED TO WATCH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE MAY REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS IN 00Z
GFS/NAM/BTV-4KM WRF THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SET UP A FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THERMAL TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
50S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE RATHER MODEST (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AT
BEST)...AND WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS OF NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT. IT APPEARS BASED ON PROJECTED
TIMING THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS VERMONT COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
VT AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WITH INTERVALS OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DECREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW AROUND
TROUGH WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO DRYING NW FLOW DEVELOPING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER SERN CANADA. 500 MB HT LEVEL INCREASES NOTICEABLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...S/SW FLOW WILL
RETURN...FILTERING WARMER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TREND...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING FROM L60S TO
L80S. TEMPERATURES INCREASE DURING THE WEEK WITH MAXES REACHING
THE L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE M50S IN
THE MTNS AND U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST
COMPLETELY DRY DAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PRIMARILY VFR...A MIX OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
MIST DEVELOPMENT AT MSS AND SLK.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO
THE AFTN/EVENING HRS. PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THUNDER AT PBG AND
THE VT TAFS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS...LOCAL
TURBULENCE AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
THESE TAFS UNDER THOSE EXPECTATIONS...WITH VCSH INDICATED AT SLK
AND MSS WHERE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE UNDER OVERCAST. WILL
AMEND FOR LOWER VISIBILITY.
COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBS SKIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO FULLY CLEAR OUT EXCEPT
AT SLK AND MSS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THAT REASON HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOW MIST AT MSS
AND SLK. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFTING OF CEILINGS AFTER 12Z.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS FRONT
APPROACHES...THEN TURNING NORTHERLY 4-6 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER
PERIODS OF IFR IN FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY
MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH SETTING UP A PLEASANT DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE PAST HOUR. AND JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO WE HAD THE FIRST
LIGHTNING STROKE IN THE CELL NORTH OF PLATTSBURGH (WHICH BY THE
WAY HAS A LITTLE BIT OF HAIL WELL ALOFT IN IT).
LATEST LAPS MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE FOR MOST OF
VERMONT, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDINESS WHICH HAVE
HELD BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
AS TYPICAL, THE FIRST CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE `DACKS. MOST OF THE 12Z/15Z RUNS OF MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER. THESE CELLS THEN DEVELOP AND PUSH
EAST AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL GREEN
MOUNTAINS ABOUT 18Z. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD THEN MEAN
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE INTO EASTERN VERMONT AFTER
4-5PM. SURFACE FRONT STILL NOT QUITE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS FIRE AHEAD OF THAT. MESO-MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH ANY STRONGER
T-STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP.
SO THE FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY TO TRY TO BETTER
TIME/LOCATE THE HIGHER LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. RELIED ON A
MIX OF BTV4, BTV6 AND HRRR MODELS. BASICALLY MAKES THE NORTHERN
HALF OF VERMONT AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT UP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR VERMONT. BTV
ALREADY REACHED 81F, SO PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE AREA,
WE COULD RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, WE`LL SEE HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ENOUGH ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO KEEP IT INTERESTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FAR
ENOUGH SEWD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER (20 POP) ACROSS PORTIONS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...AND
DRY ELSEWHERE. ALSO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER HUMIDITY BEING USHERED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
50S. 850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +11C SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE/LL NEED TO WATCH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE MAY REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS IN 00Z
GFS/NAM/BTV-4KM WRF THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SET UP A FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THERMAL TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
50S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE RATHER MODEST (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AT
BEST)...AND WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS OF NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT. IT APPEARS BASED ON PROJECTED
TIMING THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS VERMONT COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
VT AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WITH INTERVALS OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DECREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW AROUND
TROUGH WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO DRYING NW FLOW DEVELOPING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER SERN CANADA. 500 MB HT LEVEL INCREASES NOTICEABLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...S/SW FLOW WILL
RETURN...FILTERING WARMER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TREND...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING FROM L60S TO
L80S. TEMPERATURES INCREASE DURING THE WEEK WITH MAXES REACHING
THE L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE M50S IN
THE MTNS AND U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST
COMPLETELY DRY DAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT KMPV/KMSS AND KSLK. VFR LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHRA AT KMSS STARTING
BTWN 13Z-15Z...14Z-17Z AT KSLK AND THE CPV...17Z-20Z FOR KMPV AND
KRUT. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBL STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL...CREATING PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY...S/SW WINDS AT 5-10KTS WILL SHIFT MORE W/NW.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-6KTS TUESDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR PSBL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT...ESP
AT KMPV AND KSLK.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER
PERIODS OF IFR IN FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY
MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
THEN REMAINED STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUND COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE CWA
STILL RANGES FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES SO THESE SHOWERS WILL PUT DOWN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE 3KM HRRR DOES
A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE BASIC LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND
ALONG WITH THE RAP AND NAM12...SHOWS ACTIVITY WANING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BY 02Z OR SO. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WED
AND OVERALL QUIET DAY EXPECTED FOR ENC. WILL MAINTAIN SC POP FOR
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THINKING ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOST OF PERIOD
WITH SERIES OF SHRT WVS MOVING THROUGH BROAD EASTERN TROF. INITIAL
SHRT WV WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH AREA WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL. BRIEF DRYING PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL POPS.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OVER WEEKEND...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON PSBL WEAK DAMMING EVENT SAT-MON WITH SHRT WV ENERGY INDUCING SFC
WV DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY JUST S OF AREA WITH HIGH
PRES EXTENDING INTO AREA FROM N. LEANED TO A WPC/GFS/ECMWF BLEND
INDICATING HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50% SAT INTO SUN NIGHT...DECREASING
TO CLIMO 20/30 POPS MON-TUE AS MAIN SFC WAVES MOVES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN SEVERAL DEGS
BELOW NORMAL REST OF PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT REACH 80 SOME AREAS
OVER WEEKEND IF PCPN WITH DAMMING IS MORE WDSPRD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW TIMES...VFR
CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE SITES THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH
RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS. SURFACE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AT
KEWN AND WILL LOWER VSBYS TO ABOUT ONE MILE THERE WITH 2 MILES AT
THE OTHER SITES FROM GENERALLY 09Z TO 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CEILINGS EXIST AT
PGV/ISO AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. A
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER STILL EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BUT POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE WITH CALM
WINDS...SATURATED GROUND...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN REDUCED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.
AFTER SUNRISE...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW LOW LEVELS TO MIX OUT
AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT OUTSIDE OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WDSPRD SUB-VFR PSBL
SAT-SUN WITH DAMMING EVENT BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM TUESDAY...WINDS GENERALLY N/NE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND
SHOULD BACK TO MORE NW TOWARD MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR/NAM12
WIND FORECAST. SEAS CONTINUES IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE WITH 11-12
SECOND SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE BERTHA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS BERTHA LIFTS NE...AND LONG PERIOD
SWELL SUBSIDES. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND SCA A FEW
HOURS FOR WATERS BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE.
BACKING WINDS WED...NW EARLY BECOMING S/SW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN SHIFT TO NE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO E AND SE OVER WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY TO S.
BLEND OF WW3..NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST FOR SEAS DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS
HOLDING AROUND 3-4 FT WITH PRE AND POST FRONTAL FLOW INTO
FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY 2-3 FT SAT-SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CTC
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
209 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA MOVES PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SWELLS FROM BERTHA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE SMALL
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SSE OF CAPE
FEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY NE...AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. ACROSS THE
INLAND COUNTIES...DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA VIA
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS...ALONG WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. A FEW POPCORN TYPE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DECREASING POP TREND
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT AND INCREASE MAX
TEMPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT THE NEXT
UPDATE DUE TO ADDITIONAL INSOLATION REACHING THE SFC THEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...RADAR REVEALS A GROWING AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 30-100 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR...BUT A LONG RADAR LOOP REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO GET IN ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION IS GOING TO BE THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE I
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHPORT-BALD
HEAD ISLAND AREA. A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ANCHOR POINT
FOR THIS RAINFALL...AND DETERMINING THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE IS
INSTRUMENTAL TO MAKING AN ACCURATE RAINFALL FORECAST. THE HRRR MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO INITIALIZE THE CIRCULATION AND ADVECTS IT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BETWEEN 16-17Z. ON THIS PATH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OCEAN WITH THE WETTEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAND BETWEEN NOW AND
NOON.
OTHER THAN CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND POPS/PRECIP AMOUNT...THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE
GONE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SPOTS ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES
ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THE FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE JUST ABOUT TO GET RID OF THE DREARY
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL...CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR.
SO FAR AUGUST 2014 HAS SEEN THE 7TH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EVEN
OBSERVED IN WILMINGTON WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 75.7
DEGREES.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD STALLED FRONT APPEARS
TO LIE ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHPORT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRAWN EASTWARD BEHIND
BERTHA TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH TIME.
RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FEATURES WITH ECHO TOPS GENERALLY 20KFT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW T-STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TOPS OVER
30KFT. SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE 700-850 MB MEAN FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC (OUR PREFERRED MODELS TODAY) SHOW THIS
STEERING FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY NOON. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR SHOULD FLOOD IN THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW GOES WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL PRECIP
CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT TO END THE BRIEF SHORT TERM PERIODS SUMMER
TEMPS. MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER SWRN ZONES. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES BACK CLOSER TO THE AREA...THE LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE IN AREA WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED BELOW CLIMO.
SUNDAY IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION. WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY FURTHER RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES...AND THEN LEAVING
THE BOUNDARY IN OUR PRESENCE SANS WAVE ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC AND NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLIMO OR
HIGHER CHANCES WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SHY OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT EXCEPT OVERNIGHT WHEN MVFR
AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY COULD OCCUR FROM REDUCED HORIZONTAL
VSBY FROM FOG. WILL KEEP VCNTY SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THE POPCORN
TYPE CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER IN THE VERTICAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH OR VCTS WHERE APPROPRIATE UNTIL
SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME CALM FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IF FOG AFTER 05Z. STAYED WITH BR ALL TERMINALS BUT NEXT
UPDATE WILL NEED TO FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE LIFR FROM DENSE FOG. FOR
WEDNESDAY...SCT TO BKN CU CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT THE LATEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RAISED FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...DUE TO SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE ILM SC WATERS. BOTH WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.
BERTHA SWELLS NOW AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS...AND RUNNING HIGHER
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING WATERS FROM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...LATEST 41110 BUOY REPORTING SIGNIFICANT
SEAS UP TO 5 FT...AND THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41036 REPORTING 8+ FT.
BOTH BUOYS INDICATE SIG. SEAS PREDOMINATELY FROM BERTHA SWELL.
PERIODS RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 SECONDS. FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...LATEST
EDISTO BUOY REPORTED UP TO 7 FT SIG. SEAS...WITH WIND DRIVEN WAVES
A BETTER CONTRIBUTING THEN WHATS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ILM NC
WATERS.
FOR WINDS...THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT AFTER
THE DEPARTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR...WILL YIELD N TO NE WINDS AT 10-15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING TO NW TO NNW AT 10 KT DURING TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN RADAR IMAGERY
LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS
SWIRL AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MISSING THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM EDT. LACK OF
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LOW IS HINDERING ANALYSIS...BUT NOAA
BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON HAS NOT GUSTED ANY HIGHER THAN 17
KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM 3 AM AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
AN OLD STALLED FRONT RUNS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
HURRICANE BERTHA IS WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY TODAY. THE GEORGIA LOW AND OUR FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAWN OFFSHORE TOWARD BERTHA...LEADING TO A DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING WITH TIME. UNTIL THEN...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS BERTHA PULLS THE LOW AND FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL LET DRIER AIR FLOOD INTO THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
TODAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BACK
INITIALLY WEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH WHILE ADDING A FEW
KNOTS TO AVERAGE SPEED. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST ON THURSDAY
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED
OUT TO SEA BY THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES RATHER SLOWLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A TURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEERING TO EASTERLY BY THE PERIODS
END...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE EARLY BUT SETTLE BY ABOUT 5 KT. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING JUST 2-3 FEET THEN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
WEDGING IN FROM POINTS NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLED
TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. WITH
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2 FEET AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAPES IN THE 1000-15000J RANGE OVER
NORTHERN PA IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE THE MODE CORRECT AND SUPPORTS THE
NEAR TERM IDEA OF KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OFMY FCST AREA.
CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE STORMS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CORES IN
SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...MEANING SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN A FEW STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
STAY MINIMAL TODAY WITH MOST STORMS BEING PULSE TYPES AND LACKING
OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN AS
ALL INDICATORS SHOW INSTABILITY DWINDLING QUICKLY. I KEPT A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER
LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MOD 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE WILL BE VERY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER JET STREAK IS MADE TO DIVE INTO SWRN
PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS GENERATE STRONG SHEAR AND A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE ON AND TO THE LEFT OF THE NOSE OF THIS
UPPER JET STREAK. INSTABILITY AS ALWAYS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SUN WE CAN MANAGE...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FROM SPC...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ARE ELEVATED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN YET ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW I HAVE TEMPS DIALED A NOTCH BELOW TODAY`S READINGS GIVEN
THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUALITY/REFRESHING LOW PWAT AIRMASS BEING DIRECTED EQUATORWARD
VIA NLY FLOW BEHIND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO
SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN TIER ZONES EARLY WED NGT.
LG SCALE FORCING ON SW FRINGE OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING MID-UPPER LVL
TROUGH MOVG EWD ACRS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES...ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 6 C/KM ASSOCD WITH -15C AT 500MB AND ANOMALOUS H7 TEMPS MAY
INITIATE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER NRN-NERN SXNS ON THU.
GRIDDED SKY COVER MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE SET-UP
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A BKN CU FIELD TO DVLP BY AFTN.
OTHERWISE..EXPECT A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
AND 5-10KT NNW WIND.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND 500MB HEIGHT RISES SHOULD GRADUALLY REPLACE
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/CYC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION FRI-
SUN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER
GRT LKS/SERN CANADA SHOULD PROVIDE A STRING OF DRY WX WITH
PLEASANT DAYS AND RELATIVELY COOL NGTS. 05/12Z MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN SOUTH OF PA
ALONG A NW/SE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
FROM THE MID MO/LWR OH VLYS INTO THE SRN/CNTRL APPLCHNS AND SRN
MID-ATLC/SE STATES. THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCR MSTR/SLY WINDS CONSISTENT
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HP...WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WANDERS INTO
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH IN AND AROUND BRADFORD...AND POSSIBLYINTO
WILLIAMSPORT AFTER 20Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO FADE AS WE LOSE THE SUN.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAPES IN THE 1000-15000J RANGE OVER
NORTHERN PA IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE THE MODE CORRECT AND SUPPORTS THE
NEAR TERM IDEA OF KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALFOF
MY FCST AREA.
CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE STORMS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CORES IN
SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...MEANING SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN A FEW STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
STAY MINIMAL TODAY WITH MOST STORMS BEING PULSE TYPES AND LACKING
OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN AS
ALL INDICATORS SHOW INSTABILITY DWINDLING QUICKLY. I KEPT A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER
LAKES LATER TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MOD 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE WILL BE VERY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER JET STREAK IS MADE TO DIVE INTO SWRN
PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS GENERATE STRONG SHEAR AND A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE ON AND TO THE LEFT OF THE NOSE OF THIS
UPPER JET STREAK. INSTABILITY AS ALWAYS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SUN WE CAN MANAGE...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FROM SPC...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ARE ELEVATED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN YET ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW I HAVE TEMPS DIALED A NOTCH BELOW TODAY`S READINGS GIVEN
THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LG SCALE FORCING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TIED TO PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE ISOLD...INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON THU AFTN.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRING OF PLEASANT DAYS/COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATING S/SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL START OUT
BELOW AVG BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS BUT SHOULD MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS REBOUND BY 10/11 AUG.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WANDERS INTO
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH IN AND AROUND BRADFORD...AND POSSIBILY
INTO WILLIAMSPORT AFTER 20Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO FADE AS WE LOSE THE SUN.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN NE THROUGH PA. DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL RATHER LOW WITH VALUES HOLDING IN THE 50S. THIS IS
MINIMIZING OUR INSTABILITY LEVELS DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS.
A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS...HOWEVER...ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF OUR MOISTURE THROUGH
THE TAF PD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF AREAS
AROUND 12Z. OTW...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...
AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IL SW TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
STATE. HRRR FURTHER CONCURS WITH THIS SOLUTION SO OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASED PARTIAL CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
OTW...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MID STATE NE TO PA. INSTABILITY
CHARTS REVEAL THAT NOT MUCH OF ANY CAPE RETURN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WITH THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...NO POPS WILL BE ADDED TO TODAY`S FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
SO...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE A LITTLE ADDED CLOUD COVER TO
THE GRIDS. UPDATES WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE, WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
TENNESSEE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING RADIATION FOG AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, LOOK
FOR VFR WX ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE
VIRGINIAS ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO OKLAHOMA, WAS KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 2AM, TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TODAY TO
KEEP US LOCKED INTO OUR CURRENT RAIN-FREE PATTERN. WITH MAXIMUM
PERCENT SUNSHINE EXPECTED, BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO THE SAME LEVELS AS YESTERDAY. CSV MAY EVEN BREAK THEIR 3-DAY
STREAK OF MAXING OUT AT 83 DEGREES, AND NUDGE ON UP TO 84.
YARDS AND GARDENS OVER MANY AREAS ARE NEEDING RAIN PRETTY BADLY AND,
FORTUNATELY, WE HAVE REASON TO BE HOPEFUL FOR A GRADUAL CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. IF WE LOOK TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, UP OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI, WE SEE NOCTURNAL TSTMS IN PROGRESS, AND A HINT
OF THE CHANGES THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.
LOOK FOR EASTERN MISSOURI TO BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. AS INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW, AND KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND AS A LOW LEVEL COL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OUT OF MISSOURI INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TN, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY HERE INT EH MID-STATE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE STORMS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WON`T DO US ANY GOOD, SINCE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING MORE
SOUTHWARD THAT EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT BEST CAPE TO BE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT
AND THEN SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN KY AND
NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED RW/TRW
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT, ENHANCED BY A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN OUR NORTHWEST BY 12Z WED.
AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, CAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS). MEANWHILE, EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO FIRE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
SOME OF THOSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR CWA AND MAY NOT PENETRATE OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DYING OUT.
BY THURSDAY, CAPES OVER OUR AREA INCREASE TO 2500+ J/KG, AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD AND KICK OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH OUR HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OUR HIGH TEMPS ON
THU WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVERHEAD. WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS GIVING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPS
FOR THUR, AM HESITANT TO SHAVE TOO MUCH OFF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
THUS, WILL PROBABLY ONLY LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS BY 1 OR 2 DEGS.
MOS POPS AREN`T MUCH HELP WITH THIS TYPE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN, AND TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE RAIN CHANCE. THEREFORE, WILL GO
QUITE A BIT ABOVE MOS POP NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RATHER THAN GO WITH THE 20-30% MOS POPS FOR THU, WILL GO MORE LIKE
30-50%.
LONG TERM...AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BELIEVE GFS IS NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. IT SEEMS TO KEEP MAX TEMPS TOO WARM. ON THE OTHER
HAND, DON`T REALLY BUY THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH A GENERALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR CLIMO NORMS. REGARDING POPS IN THE
EXTENDED, BELIEVE THE MEX NUMBERS MAY BE A BIT HIGH AND WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD CLIMO BY THE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
117 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE OF WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LARGE DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO EDGE NORTHEAST FROM UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PLUME OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS NOW OFF TO OUR EAST IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IS LAYING UP AGAINST THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION CONCENTRATED EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SO FAR TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
MINOR WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING AND THEN EAST IN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AID IN INCREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1200-1400 J/KG AROUND ALLIANCE AND CHADRON. THEY
ARE STILL CAPPED PRETTY GOOD THOUGH SO FAR. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THIS CAP BREAKING AROUND 21Z OR SO AND HRRR SHOWING A PRETTY
STRONG CELL DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MONTROSE IN SIOUX COUNTY OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE LIFTED NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ECMWF AND NAM/WRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEST AREA FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE PANHANDLE
BY MID AFTERNOON PERSISTING INTO MID EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LATE DAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS FROM SIDNEY TO
CHADRON WHERE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
FRIDAY...INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WELL
PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL AID IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.
SATURDAY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY...WE EXPECT
A CORRESPONDING DECREASE INT THE AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
SUNDAY/TUESDAY...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EAST
WINDS.
MONDAY...MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
USED LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO DETERMINE PRECIP LOCATION AND
TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND TIMING. IFR STRATUS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
AREA CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE. EXPECT FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES EAST. DECREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY ON FOR THE MOST PART AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL...KEEPING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN CHECK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1054 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
WITH DENSE CLOUD CANOPY AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM LATE THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES 3-4 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF CHEYENNE DOES NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
ENHANCING TSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO. EXPANSIVE PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE WAS ADVECTED NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN MT
TO ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN KS. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER OVER EAST CENTRAL WY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. WINDS WERE VARIABLE 5-10 MPH.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER OR JUST EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS CO AND WY THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME INTERACTING WITH THE
WAVE AND INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSTORMS. SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM CO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO ALLIANCE
LINE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS WY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE. CONVECTION ENDS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...SOME MORNING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO
SIDNEY LINE AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES SOUTHEAST ON LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. A RESURGENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
ANOTHER PASSING WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S/70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH A MUDDLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLES
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. GENERALLY THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BROAD/FLAT RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GOVERNED
BY INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ECMWF WITH A SHORTWAVE MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
AND LONGER DURATION EVENT. 700-300 MILLIBAR RH PROGS FROM BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW POCKETS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED POPS
EVEN AT NIGHT AS ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD EXIST WITH MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVES AND OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH GOOD DYNAMIC
FORCING OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING
HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT POPS IN MOST CASES GIVEN THE VAST MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...SEASONAL.
WARMING AND DRYING TREND MON AND TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
USED LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO DETERMINE PRECIP LOCATION AND
TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND TIMING. IFR STRATUS TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014
A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DISTRICTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE WILL ENHANCE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WETTING RAINFALL AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
10 MPH...EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI