Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A
DECAYING MCS OVER SONORA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED NEAR SELLS AND GREEN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO NERN SONORA AND ACROSS SWRN NEW MEXICO. 31/08Z
RUC HRRR DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL THRU ABOUT MID-MORNING. RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
A POTENTIAL SCENARIO FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS THAT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED FOR THE
SCENARIO CONSISTING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOWS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST SIMILAR TO WED. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
FRI...
A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR FRI DUE TO THE
PROGGED MOISTURE INCREASE AND A MORE FAVORABLE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IS A
MORE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NW OF TUCSON. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE FRI NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...
31/00Z GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS WERE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
INCREASED POPS VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. GFS/ECWMF ALSO
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE OVER SE
AZ...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN AZ AS WELL AS OVER SRN
CHIHUAHUA. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS MAY ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS
SUN AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO NRN AZ.
AT ANY RATE...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY SAT...AS WEAK
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TRANSLATES INTO SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
MON-WED...
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO SE AZ
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA...AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TUE-WED UNDER WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER NEXT WED.
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU SAT FOLLOWED BY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA AS
WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 8-15K FT AGL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE INTO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A DRYING TREND
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT HOTTER DAYTIME A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS A BIT MORE THAN TUESDAY. HAD
ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF DOUGLAS. THIS STORM ALSO HAD VERY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...ALSO NORTH OF DOUGLAS.
AS OF 930 PM...THE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS NEAR
KITT PEAK HAD WEAKENED. A FEW STORMS WERE STILL OCCURRING IN FAR NRN
GREENLEE COUNTY...SRN APACHE COUNTY AND SW NM.
FURTHER SOUTH...A DISTURBANCE ROUNDED THE BASE OF LARGE INVERTED
TROF THAT IS OVER SRN BAJA. THIS FEATURE HELP WITH LARGE MCS OVER
SRN SONORA/NRN DURANGO MEXICO. NO SIGN OF A STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM
COASTAL OBS HEADED INTO THE GULF.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL HOLD ON TO VERY LOW END POPS FROM TUCSON SOUTH
AND EAST AS LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATING THAT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE...BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WIND...WAS OVER CENTRAL DURANGO MEXICO
MOVING NORTH. NOT QUITE SURE THAT THE MODEL HAVE CAPTURED THIS
FEATURE AND COULD BE A WILD CARD IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SONORA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS BRINGING A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. BEFORE THEN STILL WORKING ON
RECYCLED MOISTURE BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/21Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW QUICK POP UP -SHRA/TS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA DVLPG AFT 31/18Z...MAINLY S
AND E OF KTUS. SFC WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HERNAN STREAM THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
YET...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION WITH
THE MOISTURE TAP CUTTING-OFF AS THE DISTRICT TRENDS TOWARD A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE START OF DRIER WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE AS A DAILY OCCURRENCE OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ABUNDANT FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOREOVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY DIFLUENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING FOR WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS. HRRR MESO-SCALE MODEL INITIATES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT AROUND NOON AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD REMAINS AT AROUND 1000 FEET
MSL. WHILE NOT SHALLOW...THE HEIGHT WILL NOT PROMOTE ANY COOLING
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS NO MARINE AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER
INLAND. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM KSFO TO KLAS
REMAIN AT 6MB OVER BELOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY MARINE AIR PUSH INTO THE
VALLEY...OR ANY STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP AND MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVEN IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EVENMORE...MODELS SHOW A LOWERING OF PRECIP-WATER OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE CONVECTION MAY POP-UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIP VALUES MAY REMAIN VERY LIGHT TO AROUND
TRACE VALUES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ABOVE TRACE VALUE PRECIP IN
THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP THE LONGER TERM RAIN AMOUNTS AT AROUND THE
ZERO VALUE. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS ATTEMPT FORM A
WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS POINT...THIS
MAY BE MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN THEN A WEATHER MAKING FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KFAT 08-02 112:1908 83:1953 82:1908 53:1956
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
KBFL 08-02 109:1979 86:1976 84:1977 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION AND HEADED SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO TELLER
COUNTY OR CROSS THE SANGRES...THEY WEAKEN QUICKLY. COOL STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PERSISTENT CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR....WHICH HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE FROM THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY EASTWARD...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION WHICH MOVES INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE HRRR RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER STORMS STAYING FURTHER WEST OF
THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
REACHING WALDO CANYON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS STORMS
WILL WEAKEN. APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE I25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THE UPSLOPE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN OVER TELLER COUNTY. LATEST
NAM STILL KEEPS PW OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTHWARD. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. STILL APPEARS
TO BE CAPPED FURTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS BY THE KANSAS BORDER.
OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOSTLY STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON
STORMS. - -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...PUSHING BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO NM OVERNIGHT. WILL END POPS MOST AREAS LATE
FRI EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW POPS PAST 06Z FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NM BORDER. FOR SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM UTAH INTO WRN CO...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD. MAX
TEMPS WILL FINALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY
AUG...THOUGH EVEN WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY NOT REACH
90F. HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD SUN...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-25 LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN EVENING. MAXES SUN
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH HIGH OVERHEAD...AND A FEW 90S MAY
FINALLY REAPPEAR ON THE PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM MON WHILE
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING...SHOULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN UPTURN IN PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY OVER NRN CO TUE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COULD AID IN CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUE
EVENING. DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WED/THU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM MON/TUE MOST LOCATIONS...THEN
GRADUALLY COOL WED/THU AS UPPER HIGH RETREATS AND COOLER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
KCOS AND KPUB...CHANCES FOR THUNDER HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING
AND REMOVED VCTS FORM TAFS. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB
VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL DECREASE STABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES.
KALS...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
414 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 PM EDT...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND AN H500 CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON IS IMPACTING THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
PRODUCED SOME QUARTER-SIZE HAIL IN SARATOGA CTY WITH A FEW DOWNED
TREES. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 250-750 J/KG
HAS LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DESPITE RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS. THE COLD
POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH H500 TEMPS OF -19C
OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS THE CELLULAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 6-8 PM. WE ENDED THE
POPS AROUND THAT TIME...WITH THE SKIES CLEARING...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH.
THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.
UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH A
COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 135 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADITIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.
TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.
TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.
TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.
RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.
UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.
RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.
UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.
WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.
WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
735 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.
WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.
WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON....SOME STORMS COULD BE STRING TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z TO
21Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY
EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY
MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITON TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGHTENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE OME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINEUD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN ARAES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.
FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.
SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Some models are still indicating the potential for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the northeast part of our area this
afternoon and early this evening - particularly NMM-core WRF
models. Our local WRF-ARW and the HRRR do not generate much
convection, and most of the larger scale models don`t show much
QPF either. The latest objective RAP analysis shows an area of
weak convergence and a surface dewpoint gradient very near I-75.
Given that there is a focus for some convective development later
this afternoon, we will maintain around a 20% PoP near I-75.
Otherwise, it looks to be another dry and mostly sunny day with
highs in the low-mid 90s. The inherited forecast is generally on
track, so only minor tweaks were made to account for the latest
observational data.
&&
.Prev Discussion [314 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]
Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.
.Marine...
Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.
.Fire Weather...
With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.
.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 69 94 71 93 / 0 0 20 20 40
Panama City 88 74 88 75 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
Dothan 90 69 92 71 92 / 0 10 40 20 50
Albany 91 69 93 71 92 / 20 20 50 30 50
Valdosta 96 69 95 71 92 / 20 20 30 20 50
Cross City 93 69 92 71 92 / 10 20 20 20 40
Apalachicola 89 70 88 72 88 / 0 10 10 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG. SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY
OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THIS FEATURE EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND
SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO VARY BETWEEN PARTY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
922 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS LEFT THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR RENO/TAHOE SHOULD PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR SHOWING EVIDENCE OF
CONVECTION REFORMING IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATE TONIGHT AND REACHING
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THIS
SCENARIO DOESNT SEEM TOO FARFETCHED. EARLY LOOK AT NAM SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN HRRR WHICH KEEPS
MUCH OF EAST IDAHO DRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH PACNW COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TAIL TO KEEP WEAK THREAT
GOING IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT 06-12Z POPS AS
THEY ARE WITH VERY WEAK POPS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT/ AND WEAK SINGLE DIGIT POPS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE ONLY EDITS THIS EVENING
WERE TO ADJUST EVENING POP/WX GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OREGON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GETTING
STARTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BEAVER CREEK BURN SCAR FROM LAST
YEAR...WHICH REMAINS SUBJECT TO SLIDES AND QUICK RUN OFF WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY IS STEERING WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHERLY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A LIMITED SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE UP FROM NEVADA TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MOISTURE LINGERS ON SUNDAY UNDER VERY
LIGHT FLOW PATTERN SO MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN WILL REPEAT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA AND THEN TO IDAHO. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
FRONT OFF THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS CLOSE TO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
OVERALL THEY HINT AT THIS LOW BRING SOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLY .5 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. MAYBE SOME WETTER SPOTS. GFS
MODEL SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK THAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN
STRIDE WITH THE FORECAST. GFS IS ALSO SLOWER TO CLEAR PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA EVEN ON THURSDAY. RS
AVIATION...NO CHANGES IN THIS ONGOING MONSOON PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE CARRYING VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED. REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND/OR WINDS. KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
IDAHO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
PROBLEM. WE SHOULD SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. BASED ON RECENT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA...SIMILAR FORECASTS AND SOME COORDINATION WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE ZONES. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY BUT STILL LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MONDAY ONWARD...WE ARE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE DAYS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING STORM FROM BAJA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. RIGHT NOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT TOO MUCH EARLY CLOUD
COVER THAT WOULD MAKE THINGS TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON MONDAY. EVEN IF THAT IS THE
CASE...PREDICTED RAINFALL PER DAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1031 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
143 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CIRRUS SHIELD FLOATING
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME POCKETS OF CUMULUS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LAKE BREEZE WAS BEGINNING TO BE DEPICTED WELL ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...WHICH WAS CREATING A LCL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ALLOWING
SOME OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO ENHANCE SLIGHTLY. SFC TEMPS THIS AFTN
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE PR 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MORNING
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS DISSOLVED WITH VERY SKINNY CAPE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...AROUND 10-20KTS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH TOWARDS SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER A FEW
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE AROUND 0.5" DIAMETER HAIL
AND A BRIEF GUST TO 50 MPH. THE LARGEST CONCERN OF ANY WILL BE THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED PONDING/FLOODING.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT ONCE SUNSET OCCURS THE MINIMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME
EVEN LESS THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING LESS FOCUS FOR PRECIP.
SO HAVE TRENDED DRY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF DRYING AT
THE SFC...LLVL MOISTURE SHUD REMAIN AND THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT VSBYS TO NOT GO BELOW 2SM...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS
WHERE AFTN RAINFALL COULD FURTHER REDUCE VSBYS TO ARND 1SM.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SAT AND LIKELY INTO SUN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY SAT...WITH A LACK OF ANY WAVES OVERHEAD.
ALTHOUGH BY MIDDAY SAT THERE IS A WEAK MID-LVL WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
SFC INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE FOR
SAT/SUN...WHICH WOULD ALSO ADD TO THE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS A FEW PULSE STORMS. TEMPS SHUD AGAIN NEAR SEASONAL CONDS
SAT/SUN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ARND 80 BOTH DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPS DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD HOLD IN THE
UPR 70S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE.
MONDAY THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK...
ENSEMBLES IN THE LONG RANGE APPEAR TO BE SUGGESTING THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC BLOCK WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT EAST AND FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS POINTS TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OF SYSTEMS
SLIDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SO PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS PROBABLE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY SUB-SEASONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
THE SHRA ACTIVITY LINGERING FROM EARLIER CLUSTER OF TSRA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
ORD/MDW. MESO-HIGH NEAR THE NE IL/SE WI BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY.
IZZI
UPDATED 00Z...
ISOLD-SCTD TSRA SOUTH...WEST...AND WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
WILL FADE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
SHOULD BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
FORM SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT
PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE LAKE...AND THEN GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF
THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY THAT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WILL BIT SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE IN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
BUT STILL REMAINING UNDER 15 KT OR SO. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE GRADIENT AGAIN BECOMING RATHER
WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...THUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OR OVERHEAD EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SOMETIME BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY
LATER IN THE WEEK. WAVES GENERALLY REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
901 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Much of the convection that formed earlier today has faded with
sunset, but some storms persist from near Beardstown northwest
toward Burlington IA. That particular area still has some CAPE`s
around 1500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis, which will help sustain them
for another hour or two, although the latest RAP model shows the
instability weakening with time.
Large area of mostly clear skies west of the Mississippi River,
and skies should start clearing from west to east in our area,
although clouds will likely hang on near the Indiana border much
of the night. Development of fog is most likely in the areas that
had the most rain earlier today, with nearly calm winds overnight,
with speed of development based on the clearing.
Have sent some updated grids to reflect latest precipitation and
temperature trends. Updated zones to follow shortly.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Convection beginning to fade early this evening. KPIA stands the
best chance of any lingering VCTS over the next hour or two,
although a stray storm may be near KCMI as well. Showers are
otherwise expected to diminish through sunset. Have made little
other changes to the earlier TAF set. MVFR conditions expected
overnight due to light fog. Have a bit of concern with potential
for thunder again on Saturday afternoon, mainly near KDEC/KCMI,
but have kept it out for now due to the uncertainty.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Very little change to our overall weather pattern is expected into
the middle of next week as the upper level northwest flow
continues. This will result in temperatures at or just below
seasonal normals, with shortwave troughs providing a focus for
showers/t-storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Medium range models
showing a shift in our pattern by Thursday, but there are quite a
few differences regarding how this will take place and what the
associated sensible weather will be.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night
Diurnal convection this afternoon has been getting a boost from a
shortwave trough moving into the area. The surface reflection was
only a weak wind shift, but this was enough to combine with the
instability and convective updrafts to produce several funnel
clouds in central and east central IL this afternoon. The radar
indicated a myriad of outflow boundaries with scattered
thunderstorms east of the IL River and very isolated showers to
the west. Will keep the mention of scattered t-storms in the
forecast for this evening generally along and east of I-55, with a
mention of isolated showers/few t-storms to the west.
The scattered rainfall, some of which was heavy in spots, will
contribute low level moisture to help produce patchy fog overnight
and into Saturday morning. The shortwave moving across the Midwest
tonight could linger just long enough in extreme eastern IL to
produce scattered showers/t-storms early Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, weak high pressure will begin to approach later
Saturday and settle into the area Sunday with mostly sunny
conditions and temperatures in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
A southerly wind will develop Monday ahead of the next approaching
cold front from the northwest. This will give us gradually
increasing humidity and temperatures closer to normal for early
August.
There are some model differences with the speed of the cold front,
with the GFS being quicker and the European and Canadian on the
slower side. The GFS may be a bit too quick with its frontal
depiction, so will keep the chance for thunderstorms north of I-74
for Monday night, and gradually drop them southward with the front
Tuesday.
As the models start to depict a breakdown in the northwest flow to
more of a zonal flow, their differences start to show up with the
position of the front Wednesday through Friday. The Canadian model
is farther north while the GFS drops it south toward the OH valley
Wednesday then lift it back north as a warm front by Friday.
Prefer the European solution of settling the front into southern
IL then pretty much keeping it there through the end of the week.
This would result in periods of showers and thunderstorms with
high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
844 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD-UP AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION IS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE
COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT WINDS TO
TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
URBAN AREAS A LITTLE WARMER. ELSEWHERE TEMPS SHUD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 50S.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH NERN IL AND NWRN IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...DIURNAL CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN...BUT THE REGION REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME ISOLD SHRA OR AN EVEN MORE ISOLD TS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DURG THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY DIURNAL PCPN WILL DISSIPATE AND AND RESIDUAL
PCPN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INVOF ON OF THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE AND A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SFC. UNDER PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK GRADIENT PATTERN
AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE WILL PENETRATE.
CERTAINLY...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE
COOLING WILL PENETRATE. SO...WILL KEEP THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A BIT
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS FAR AS LAKE INFLUENCE IS CONCERNED AND
LIMIT THE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. UNDER THE COOL
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F OR SO. TIMING OF PERIODS OF PCPN
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WHILE NO DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...THERE
SHOULD BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY...WITH
INLAND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT A WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTING AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL CREEP INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW...SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN...SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST
WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMING
TREND COULD BE BRIEF AS A WEAK UPPER LOW HANGS BACK OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT
BUILD ANY FARTHER EAST THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...THE SFC
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PCPN.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* ISOL -SHRA WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF TSRA.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH MANY SITES INDICATING CALM
WINDS AND THE EARLY STAGES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING FOG TO BE
THE WORST AT GYY WITH IFR FOG PSBL. DPA WILL ALSO SEE MVFR FOG.
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE MIXING EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS PSBL. THE STRONG FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SHORELINE. ISOL SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND NORTHERN IL. CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE SO BACKED OFF ON PRECIP BY
REPLACING THE VCSH WITH A PROB30. STABILITY WILL LIMIT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA COVERAGE AND LOCATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A VERY VERY LOW CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 730 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Diurnal clouds quickly fading, leading behind some cirrus left
over from convection in the central Plains, as well as a smoke
layer coming in from the northwest. Have updated the sky grids to
lower the cloud cover, primarily over the next 6 hours or so. This
did not impact the zone forecasts, although an update was sent to
that product to remove the late afternoon period. Temperatures
appear on track and no adjustments needed.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1128 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Not much needs to be changed with the previous TAF set.
Light/variable winds overnight to become more westerly for a time
late Thursday morning into the afternoon, then light/variable
again in the evening. Have a bit of concern with potential for
light shallow fog toward sunrise, though this would have no
substantial depth as the forecast soundings show dry conditions in
the lower levels. Will leave this out for now and continue to
monitor.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
An upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will
continue to keep Illinois in an unseasonably cool air mass into the
weekend. Chances of spotty showers or storms will continue through
Saturday, then a dry period may develop as into early next week as
upper level ridging advances into IL. Warmer conditions appear in
the far extended as high temps approach normal on Tue and Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
A few showers bubbled up this afternoon northeast of a line from
Bloomington to Mattoon. Any lightning through 230 pm remained in
Indiana closer to the better mid-level instability. RAP sounding
analysis east of Champaign showed only 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE for
storm updraft development in our counties, which supports the
limited vertical development observed visually and on satellite.
We expect any showers in our northeastern forecast area to
dissipate by 00z/7pm, so no precip was included in the evening
grids. The diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate with the
passage of sunset as well, providing clear skies overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, creating
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Lows should dip into the
mid to upper 50s in most locations. A few spots could linger in
the low 60s depending on localized surface dew point trends.
Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a few isolated
afternoon showers east-northeast of PIA to BMI to MTO. Highs
will top out in the low 80s with relatively comfortable dew points
around 60F.
Friday and Saturday will feature the passage of stronger 500mb
shortwaves, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and
storms. We still expect mainly 30-40% coverage on both days, but
thunder potential will be higher due to deeper mid-level
instability and increasing moisture. Highs will still remain below
normal in the low 80s through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.
The upper level low will shift east of Illinois for Sunday through
Monday with upper level ridging providing dry conditions both days.
Slow warming will begin...with highs by Monday approaching the
middle 80s. Storm chances are expected to return on Tuesday and
Wednesday the next series of shortwaves roll over the top of the
ridge in the Plains. No strong to severe weather is anticipated at
this point. A warm front developing north of IL will help
southerly flow bring mid to upper 80s into our forecast area,
which are closer to normal for early Aug.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ON TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AS EXPECTED...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS WANED
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SUN HAS SET. GENERALLY EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE AT BEST REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE SOLE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SMALL STORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHICH HAS THE ASSISTANCE OF A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES FROM
PRIOR CONVECTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL REMNANT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND HAS HELD ITS OWN FOR A WHILE NOW. THAT
SAID...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS EXTREMELY WEAKLY SHEARED IF AT
ALL...INSTABILITY IS 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND WANING...AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS INCREASING. THUS...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OR
DIE BEFORE MAKING THE AREA...AND HRRR BEARS THIS OUT.
DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ACCUMULATING HAIL OCCURRED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE BUT
BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND LIKELY NOT WORTH A GRID MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE NECESSARY OWING TO
RECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SHOULD STILL SEE ACTIVITY ON A
DOWNSWING AROUND SUNSET AS HEATING IS LOST...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL AS WITH PRIOR FORECAST CONTINUE
AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...PERHAPS PRODIGIOUSLY AS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK. THE LARGE
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE DAY IN
LAFAYETTE IS TYPICAL OF SUCH CORES IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND THE EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT.
ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AFTER
SUNSET AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE DIURNAL LAST FEW DAYS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP. IT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE...BUT NERVELESS WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS
INTO LATE TONIGHT PER MODELS. IN OTHER AREAS SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ON EAST INTO OHIO.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP NORTHEAST AREAS AT OR ABOVE 60 WITH MORE CLOUDS
THERE LATER TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY PREFER THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS AND WENT WITH A MOS BLEND IN THE EAST. THE MET HAS 74
FOR A HIGH AT MUNCIE...WHILE THE MAV IS 82. MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THERE A LITTLE MORE...BUT 74 SEEMS A
BIT TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END SATURDAY EVENING...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY ALL
AREAS REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH FOR US TO
REMAIN DRY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS
AIR MASS BECOMES A LITTLE DRIER AND HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODELS
KEEP A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION. OVERALL A MOS BLEND
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AFTER A DRY SPELL ENSEMBLES HINTING AT CENTRAL INDIANA POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO A WETTER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY AND TIMING TO
THIS LATEST SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND THEREFORE LEFT POPS
AT LOW END CHANCE MOST TIMES. MODELS HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT TIMING DIFFERS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. ALLBLEND IS CARRYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES LEADING
UP TO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND THE NORMAL RANGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW TO MID 80S HIGHS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS
INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUD AND OUTFLOWS ARE BEGINNING TO CUT DOWN
ON HEATING. MAY NOT NEED TO CARRY ANY EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST ANYMORE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TIME.
APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION MAY BE AT
KIND/KBMG...WHERE OUTFLOWS/CLOUD COVER REALLY HAVEN/T HAD MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON INSTABILITY YET.
REGARDLESS...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. HOWEVER WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LOW THREAT FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE TAF SITES MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY FORECAST. FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT...CONDITIONS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION WITH
LITTLE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY NARROW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF IFR RESTRICTIONS APPEARS TO BE IN THE KLAF
AREA...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH
IFR RESTRICTIONS THERE AFTER 020700Z...BUT KEEP THE OTHER TAF SITES
ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ON TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AS EXPECTED...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS WANED
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SUN HAS SET. GENERALLY EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE AT BEST REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE SOLE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SMALL STORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHICH HAS THE ASSISTANCE OF A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES FROM
PRIOR CONVECTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL REMNANT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND HAS HELD ITS OWN FOR A WHILE NOW. THAT
SAID...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS EXTREMELY WEAKLY SHEARED IF AT
ALL...INSTABILITY IS 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND WANING...AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS INCREASING. THUS...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OR
DIE BEFORE MAKING THE AREA...AND HRRR BEARS THIS OUT.
DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ACCUMULATING HAIL OCCURRED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE BUT
BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND LIKELY NOT WORTH A GRID MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE NECESSARY OWING TO
RECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SHOULD STILL SEE ACTIVITY ON A
DOWNSWING AROUND SUNSET AS HEATING IS LOST...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL AS WITH PRIOR FORECAST CONTINUE
AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...PERHAPS PRODIGIOUSLY AS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK. THE LARGE
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE DAY IN
LAFAYETTE IS TYPICAL OF SUCH CORES IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND THE EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT.
ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AFTER
SUNSET AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE DIURNAL LAST FEW DAYS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP. IT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE...BUT NERVELESS WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS
INTO LATE TONIGHT PER MODELS. IN OTHER AREAS SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ON EAST INTO OHIO.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP NORTHEAST AREAS AT OR ABOVE 60 WITH MORE CLOUDS
THERE LATER TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY PREFER THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS AND WENT WITH A MOS BLEND IN THE EAST. THE MET HAS 74
FOR A HIGH AT MUNCIE...WHILE THE MAV IS 82. MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THERE A LITTLE MORE...BUT 74 SEEMS A
BIT TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END SATURDAY EVENING...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY ALL
AREAS REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH FOR US TO
REMAIN DRY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS
AIR MASS BECOMES A LITTLE DRIER AND HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODELS
KEEP A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION. OVERALL A MOS BLEND
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AFTER A DRY SPELL ENSEMBLES HINTING AT CENTRAL INDIANA POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO A WETTER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY AND TIMING TO
THIS LATEST SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND THEREFORE LEFT POPS
AT LOW END CHANCE MOST TIMES. MODELS HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT TIMING DIFFERS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. ALLBLEND IS CARRYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES LEADING
UP TO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND THE NORMAL RANGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW TO MID 80S HIGHS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS
INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUD AND OUTFLOWS ARE BEGINNING TO CUT DOWN
ON HEATING. MAY NOT NEED TO CARRY ANY EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST ANYMORE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TIME.
APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION MAY BE AT
KIND/KBMG...WHERE OUTFLOWS/CLOUD COVER REALLY HAVEN/T HAD MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON INSTABILITY YET.
REGARDLESS...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. HOWEVER WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LOW THREAT FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE TAF SITES MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY FORECAST. FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT...CONDITIONS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION WITH
LITTLE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY NARROW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF IFR RESTRICTIONS APPEARS TO BE IN THE KLAF
AREA...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH
IFR RESTRICTIONS THERE AFTER 020700Z...BUT KEEP THE OTHER TAF SITES
ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TRIGGERING DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND
IT...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DROP MENTION OF FOG AND TO LOWER SKY
COVER A LITTLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAP SOUNDING INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT POPS HOWEVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS
LIKELY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU 18Z-FRI
00Z.
TEMPS...AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START THEIR WEAK WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S. THIS WAS HANDLED BEST BY ALLBLEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING NECESSARY LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT WAVE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER WAVE STALLS.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY COMING OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS THE FORMER ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WABASH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
REGIONAL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE BY TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER BEFORE
STALLING OUT. PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG FRIDAY MORNING AT THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS....ESPECIALLY KLAF. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND FRIDAY AFTER
16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TRIGGERING DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND
IT...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DROP MENTION OF FOG AND TO LOWER SKY
COVER A LITTLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAP SOUNDING INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT POPS HOWEVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS
LIKELY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU 18Z-FRI
00Z.
TEMPS...AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START THEIR WEAK WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S. THIS WAS HANDLED BEST BY ALLBLEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING NECESSARY LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT WAVE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER WAVE STALLS.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY COMING OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS THE FORMER ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WABASH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
REGIONAL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE BY TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER BEFORE
STALLING OUT. PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
1415Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE AT LAF BY 12Z AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS MORE FOG...MAINLY AT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND
FRIDAY AFTER 16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TRIGGERING DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND
IT...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DROP MENTION OF FOG AND TO LOWER SKY
COVER A LITTLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAP SOUNDING INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT POPS HOWEVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS
LIKELY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU 18Z-FRI
00Z.
TEMPS...AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START THEIR WEAK WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S. THIS WAS HANDLED BEST BY ALLBLEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING NECESSARY LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT WAVE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER WAVE STALLS.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY COMING OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS THE FORMER ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WABASH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
REGIONAL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE BY TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER BEFORE
STALLING OUT. PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE AT LAF BY 12Z AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS MORE FOG...MAINLY AT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND
FRIDAY AFTER 16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER ALONG
THE RED RIVER SOUTH OF KOUN. SEVERAL VERY WEAK TROFS RAN FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NORTHEAST OF KONL. SEVERAL WEAK
TROFS RAN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST OF KCID/KIOW. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY WEAK FOR PEAK HEATING. RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE 700MB WHICH IS PLAYING INTO THE
LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE FAR EAST AND WEST SECTIONS BEING
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED.
AFTER SUNSET...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA. INITIALLY DOWNWARD MOTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SOME VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. THUS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY
SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD
FIRE OFF NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS BY MID DAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. AS SUCH...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANGING LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
DOMINATES THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MAIN SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS IA
AND MN FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD SURGE INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH. THUS SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY... BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT...COULD SEE
SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY IS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPRESS AND CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY EVENING...THEN LOWER POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER MN
AND WI. THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN US WILL SLOWLY
FLATTEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SETTING UP WEAK...GRADUALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN
THE REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES SET UP...WILL HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
CWFA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE GULF IS PROGGED
TO BE MORE OPEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/01 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET BUT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...AND...THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA
OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS AT BEST 5 PERCENT. AFT 06Z/01 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BUT IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE
700MB. RAP TRENDS KEEP THIS CAP IN PLACE UNTIL NEARLY SUNSET SO
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES GET GOING WOULD BE SHALLOW IN NATURE.
ANOTHER VARIABLE IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS THE THIN HAZE OF
ELEVATED SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO FILTER THE
HEATING FROM THE SUN. THIS FILTERING IS VERY SUBTLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE BUT IT IS THERE.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP BUT ANY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY 2 HOURS AWAY FROM
OCCURRING. LIKE YESTERDAY IT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VERY WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AM WITH
WEAK RIDGING SOUTH AND SUBTLE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EVIDENT IN MSLP
FIELD AND OBS FROM EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IA. MAINLY CLOUD-FREE
BUT HAZY SKY WITH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN RIVER VLYS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. STAGNANT/BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES WITH DEEP
LAYER CYCLONE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING EASTERN HALF OF CONUS...WHILE RIDGING
PERSISTS OUT WEST. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION INJECTED WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES... MOST NOTABLY A PAIR
LOCATED UPSTREAM WITH LEAD VORT DIVING S/E THROUGH ND AND ANOTHER
VORT JUST BEHIND IT OVER SASKATCHEWAN... WHICH MAY HAVE SOME ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TDY/TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CANADA TO MAINTAIN MILKY HAZE IN OUR SKY TDY WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS OF SCT-BKN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE AM THROUGH PM.
TEMPS TO WARM 1-3 DEGS MANY LOCATIONS FROM YSTDY WITH WARMING OF
AIRMASS (1-2C AT 850 MB)... WITH LOWER 80S COMMONPLACE. CONTINUE WITH
STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTN MAINLY EASTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO SUBTLE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BUT WOULDN/T AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE A CLEAN
RADAR EITHER WITH CAPPING INVERSION IN 600-700 MB LAYER EVIDENT IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SAMPLED ON 00Z DVN RAOB... AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
FURTHER AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LEAD VORT MAX FROM ND. POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALBEIT WEAK BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN CWA
LATE TDY IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX... AND THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ERODE MID LEVEL CAP AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OR PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN CWA LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. THE SECONDARY
VORT OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR
PERCOLATION OF ISOLD CONVECTION WELL AFTER DARK... THUS WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND COOL DRAINAGE AREAS BENEATH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG ALSO ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO AUGUST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE TROUGH ACTUALLY
BECOMES REINFORCED WITH A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING DOWN INTO
THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
-15C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PAINT SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE 10-11K FT WHICH MAY SUPPORT NEAR
SEVERE HAIL IN SMALL BUT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH CAPES PUSHING INTO
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
CHANGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MIDWEST WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/
SOUTHERN PLAINS SO RIDGE RIDERS MAY TRIGGER PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE A
MEANDERING WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SETS UP THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT
AND STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
EARLY AUGUST.
WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOKING INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE BREAKS OFF FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 70S LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/01 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET BUT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...AND...THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA
OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS AT BEST 5 PERCENT. AFT 06Z/01 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Latest water vapor loops shows a shortwave axis moving over
Missouri with subsidence over eastern Kansas at 19Z. Surface trough
and low extended from northeast to southwest Kansas. Scattered
clouds have developed in layer around 750-700mb and forecast
soundings from the RUC show clouds dissolving by 02Z. Winds expected
to become easterly this evening as the surface low and trough moves
into southeast Kansas. Some isentropic lift develops after 06Z
tonight with low condensation pressure deficits over east central
Kansas. NAM has best lift over southeast Kansas after 09Z on the
305K isentropic surface. Have kept in some partly cloudy skies in
east central Kansas later tonight and into early Saturday morning.
There is little in the way of upper support, but could see some
isolated very light showers or sprinkles develop in the isentropic
lift and models have shown over the last few runs. Lows tonight will
range from the lower to mid 60s.
Saturday, the northwest upper flow continues with heights rising
slightly through the day. Expect highs to be a few degrees warmer
out toward central Kansas and similar to today. Some small chances
of showers are possible on Saturday with weak embedded waves and
some weak isentropic lift especially in the morning. With nothing
showing up upstream in water vapor will keep the dry forecast going.
Models show a 700 mb wave over north central Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. The NAM develops some showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central and parts of east central Kansas in a zone of
700-500mb frontogenesis in the afternoon. Slight warming aloft may
inhibit any precipitation from forming and will increase pops but
remain less than 15 percent attm.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A board upper level ridge across the west-central conus will
gradually build east across the southern plains by mid week.
Weak upper level troughs embedded in northwesterly flow aloft may
provide enough ascent when combined with weak isentropic lift at
night for isolated showers Saturday Night through Sunday night. At
this time I will only carry 10 to 14 pops due to the uncertainty on
areal coverage and timing. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. lows will be in the 60s.
It looks dry Monday through Tuesday as the upper level ridge
builds eastward into the southern plains. Highs will be in the lower
to mid 90s. lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday Night through Thursday, A series of upper level troughs will
round the upper level ridge axis across the northern and central
plains. A cold front will also push southward into eastern KS on
Wednesday and may stall out across the CWA through Thursday. The
combination of ascent ahead of the upper level troughs and surface
convergence along the surface cold front will provide the CWA with
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will gradually cool
into the mid 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Despite a few showers in NE KS, will keep TAF VFR as are too
spread out to be of concern. Some suggestion at development of
isolated showers/storms after 09z, but will assess this potential
next issuance as for now this too seems sparse.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING. DUE TO VERY LOW
STORM MOVEMENT AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION...A COUPLE OF STORMS
HAVE EVEN PRODUCED AS MUCH AS ABOUT 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
NORTHEASTERN LEE AND NORTHERN BREATHITT...SOUTHERN WOLFE COUNTIES
WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME. OTHERWISE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS AS USUAL FOR
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY. AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR FOG WILL BECOME A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN THE EVENING AIR BUT
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTH OF JKL
AND ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT BUT DISTINGUISHABLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ALL TOGETHER. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND CONSIDERABLE CLEARING IN
THE WEST. OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. FOG WILL
PROBABLY BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE. WILL WATCH OBS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT MAY BEEF UP THE
POTENTIAL WITH NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND...WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE MODEL HAVING VARYING DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THINGS...SO THOSE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO FORMULATE THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN
DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 4Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW ON AVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RISING IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...WITH
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ALSO CUT OFF UNTIL AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT POPS BEING INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH MEAGER MOISTURE...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS USED ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS REINFORCING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND
CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ON TO THE EAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ROCKIES ALSO BREAKS DOWN. IN RESPONSE...
SURFACE FEATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A TRANSITION...AND FLOW OFF THE
GULF SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. LOW POPS WERE USED FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT ONLY WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN THE EVENING AIR BUT
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTH OF JKL
AND ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT BUT DISTINGUISHABLE OUTFLOWS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALL
TOGETHER. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME -SHRA IN THE VCNTY OF LOZ...JKL
FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
SINCE ACTIVITY IS SO SHORT LIVED. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND SUSPECT OUR
VALLEY TERMINALS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY FOG THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT...EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. EXCEPTION WOULD BE SJS WHERE
INFLUENCE OF THE BIG SANDY WATER SHED TENDS TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT LOZ AND
JKL...LIFR AT SME AND SJS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY...WITH JKL AND SJS BEING MOST LIKELY SITES OR
TERMINALS TO BE INFLUENCED. FOR NOW LEFT MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR SATURDAY SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION REMAINING
CONCERNING COVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE DOWNPLAYING THE
POTENTIAL CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT TURNING OUT OF THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN THE EVENING AIR BUT
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTH OF JKL
AND ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT BUT DISTINGUISHABLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ALL TOGETHER. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND CONSIDERABLE CLEARING IN
THE WEST. OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. FOG WILL
PROBABLY BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE. WILL WATCH OBS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT MAY BEEF UP THE
POTENTIAL WITH NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND...WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE MODEL HAVING VARYING DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THINGS...SO THOSE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO FORMULATE THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN
DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 4Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW ON AVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RISING IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...WITH
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ALSO CUT OFF UNTIL AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT POPS BEING INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH MEAGER MOISTURE...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS USED ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS REINFORCING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND
CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ON TO THE EAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ROCKIES ALSO BREAKS DOWN. IN RESPONSE...
SURFACE FEATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A TRANSITION...AND FLOW OFF THE
GULF SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. LOW POPS WERE USED FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT ONLY WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN THE EVENING AIR BUT
HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTH OF JKL
AND ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT BUT DISTINGUISHABLE OUTFLOWS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALL
TOGETHER. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME -SHRA IN THE VCNTY OF LOZ...JKL
FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
SINCE ACTIVITY IS SO SHORT LIVED. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND SUSPECT OUR
VALLEY TERMINALS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY FOG THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT...EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. EXCEPTION WOULD BE SJS WHERE
INFLUENCE OF THE BIG SANDY WATER SHED TENDS TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT LOZ AND
JKL...LIFR AT SME AND SJS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY...WITH JKL AND SJS BEING MOST LIKELY SITES OR
TERMINALS TO BE INFLUENCED. FOR NOW LEFT MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR SATURDAY SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION REMAINING
CONCERNING COVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE DOWNPLAYING THE
POTENTIAL CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT TURNING OUT OF THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AREA MOVING OUT OF FAR E TX INTO N LA...ALONG AND
JUST S OF I-2O. SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED FROM JUST NW OF
WACO TO JUST W OF PARIS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...AS THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO PIVOT SEWD. FOR THE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE WE`RE RUNNING
EVEN COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST AT MOST SITES...AND CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP WILL KEEP THESE AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND MOVED AREAS OF E TX
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL LA. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.
OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 68 82 67 87 / 60 40 30 20 20
MLU 75 66 82 63 87 / 60 40 40 30 30
DEQ 69 64 79 65 85 / 80 30 20 10 10
TXK 74 64 80 65 86 / 80 30 20 10 10
ELD 74 63 81 64 86 / 70 40 30 10 20
TYR 77 68 83 64 88 / 70 30 20 10 10
GGG 76 68 82 65 88 / 70 30 20 10 10
LFK 86 72 86 67 90 / 60 40 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.
OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 68 82 67 87 / 60 40 30 20 20
MLU 81 66 82 63 87 / 60 40 40 30 30
DEQ 70 64 79 65 85 / 80 30 20 10 10
TXK 76 64 80 65 86 / 80 30 20 10 10
ELD 76 63 81 64 86 / 70 40 30 10 20
TYR 82 68 83 64 88 / 60 30 20 10 10
GGG 78 68 82 65 88 / 60 30 20 10 10
LFK 88 72 86 67 90 / 50 40 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS AGAIN REDEVELOPED OVER SE
OK/N TX NEAR AND N OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX...ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX INTO SE TX. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR DTO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BNDRY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO THUNDER INTO THESE
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR 10KFT GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
TIME AS THE SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK/SW AR...WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND/AFTER 12Z ACROSS SW AR. IN ADDITION...LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE TX AND ADVECT N INTO DEEP E TX AROUND 12Z AS
WELL. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/NW LA BY 12Z...WITH IT POSSIBLY DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM W TO E BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...AS A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC FRONT SHIFT ESE INTO E TX. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE E TX/SHV
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FG LOOK TO SET IN LATE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSE AFTER 15Z. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 81 69 83 69 / 50 50 40 30 20
MLU 65 82 67 83 68 / 20 50 40 40 30
DEQ 66 72 64 80 65 / 80 60 20 20 10
TXK 67 77 64 81 67 / 80 60 30 20 10
ELD 66 77 64 82 66 / 60 60 40 30 10
TYR 72 83 68 84 70 / 60 50 30 20 10
GGG 72 82 68 83 69 / 60 50 40 20 10
LFK 73 90 72 87 71 / 30 40 40 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS
RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A
SOUTH WESTERLY COMPONENT.
LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS
AFTERNOON A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND
EVEN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW
SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES
GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.
THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.
AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.
THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
AND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WILL LOOK FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THEN...INCLUDING THE WI TAF SITES. NOT
SEEING NEARLY THE INDICATORS THAT WERE PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR CREATING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MAY IMPACT NWRN WI THEN DRIFT
SEWD TO NEAR KRNH-KEAU. A STRAY SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AND WILL MONITOR/AMEND AS NEEDED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TMRW...MAINLY OVER
WI. THIS COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY EARLY-
TO-MID AFTERNOON TMRW...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN WI. TIMING IS STILL
AN ISSUE...LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE 18Z CUTOFF...SO THE THINKING
WAS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO UP TO 18Z TMRW THEN LATER TAFS CAN BETTER
REFINE THE THINKING OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS AOB 10 KT
THROUGHOUT THIS SET.
KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z TMRW. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WI TMRW AFTN AND SPREADS W...SOME DEGRADED CONDS
COULD IMPACT MSP LATER TMRW AFTN. ATTM...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR
BUT MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS RELAXED
PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A SOUTH
WESTERLY COMPONENT.
LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS AFTERNOON A
SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND EVEN THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT
POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET
NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.
THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.
AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.
THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
POCKETS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT...VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM 22
TO 01.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.
WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE. THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
KONL TO KBBW. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.
WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE. THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL IMPACT KLBF EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO N
CENTRAL NEB...WELL EAST OF KVTN AND KLBF. A SECOND WAVE WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ONE WILL BE FURTHER WEST WITH
AREAS FROM KVTN TO KBBW AND POINTS EAST TO POSSIBLY SEE SHOWERS.
MODELS KEEP KLBF WEST OF THE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER A FEW DO HIT KVTN.
LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...SO NO MENTION IN KVTN TAF. ALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING WITH QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.
WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE. THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
812 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...STILL WATCHING CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-50 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED.
STILL SEEING A BRIEF STRAY CELL POPPING UP HERE AND THERE HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION MARK RIGHT NOW IS
CREATED BY THE HRRR MODEL WHICH IS ON IT`S OWN DEVELOPING STORMS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF LINCOLN COUNTY THEN PUSHING IT SOUTH
INTO CLARK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THIS IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH...IT IS REALLY THE ONLY HI-RES MODEL DOING THAT. SO FOR NOW
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
319 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVE UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CONVERGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIFT THE LOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ACROSS INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ACCORDINGLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CREATE THIS WEEKEND`S UPTICK IN MONSOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE [850-500MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6-8 G/KG] AND LI`S OF
0 TO -4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK
40-60KT JET MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AND ONE OR
MORE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE AREAS OF FORCING AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS AS STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.
FOR TUESDAY MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER I
DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SLOWER DRYING THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE OVERALL
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AN AREA NORTH OF AN
INDEPENDENCE-RACHEL-MESQUITE-GRAND CANYON SKYWALK ARCH. HAVE ALSO
LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN
NEVADA COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ABRUPT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE A
DIFFICULT WEEKEND...AS THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.
THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1044 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLOODING AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PLAGUE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
AIRMASS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRY OUT DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT NOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY TOWARD
THE COAST...THE COOL WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY. I HAVE
SHAVED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST LOW TEMPS AT DARLINGTON...
FLORENCE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON AS THIS COOLER AIR SLIPS SOUTHWARD.
ALSO...SYNOPTIC MODELS AND THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING THE
DEVELOPING MASS OF MARINE CONVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR SHOULD MOVE TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS. I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 70-80 PERCENT IN THIS AREA...WHILE
TRIMMING THEM BACK INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION WHERE THE LIGHTER SHOWERS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR MAY NOT
LAST MUCH LONGER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MADE PRETTY GOOD INLAND PROGRESS
EARLIER TODAY...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM LUMBERTON
DOWN THROUGH FLORENCE. THE BOUNDARY IS STALLING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL IT COULD REACH MYRTLE BEACH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS LED TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS FROM BLADEN COUNTY THROUGH MARION...FLORENCE TO
NEAR ORANGEBURG SC. AN EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE FRONT AND A COLLOCATED DEEP
MOISTURE CHANNEL EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COAST LATE.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE FAIRLY MINOR...WITH TWEAKS TO WIND
DIRECTIONS AND HOURLY POPS/WX MOST SIGNIFICANT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
TROUGH REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COAST WHILE DEEP GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES. THIS
COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...CAPE IS 1000-1500 J/KG...HAS
BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BRING
ABOUT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE MID LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
HELD ONTO LIKELY POP ALONG THE COAST ALL NIGHT BUT DROP INLAND AREAS
TO HIGH CHANCE AROUND MID NIGHT. MID LEVEL PATTERN AND LACK OF
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN TX SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST QPF SHOULD BE FOUND.
CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL KEEP
LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CLIMO...AROUND 70. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MODEST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS PERIOD. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROUGH
WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE INLAND...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE. AN EXTREMELY DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE
ALONG WITH A MOIST COLUMN THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR A LARGE SCALE...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT. WE ARE EXPECTING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 4 AND 5 INCHES ALONG COASTAL CAPE
FEAR. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND GIVEN THE GROUND
IS WET FROM A VERY WET JULY...WE FEEL THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH.
THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERED THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY-AUGUST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MAINTAIN NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
BOTH DAYS...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED AMPLE
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MODELS INDICATE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUD COVER
MONDAY...BUT LESS SO TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST AND ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN
BY MIDWEEK...SO ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE INCLUDED EACH DAY...TREND
WILL BE DOWNWARD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY...SO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS
WILL BE WARRANTED THOSE DAYS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A NARROW BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS OCCURRING ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFLO TO KLBT. CIGS ARE MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT KCRE/KMYR. THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION AT KFLO/KLBT AND INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KFLO/KLBT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ATTM WILL SWING THE FRONT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR/LIFR TO EVENTUALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
ILM BEFORE SUNRISE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE AT KFLO/KLBT.
LIFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. SHRA/TSRA RE-DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR VCTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WIND AND SEA
FORECASTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE FEAR. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD LAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND THROUGH ELIZABETHTOWN
AND WHITEVILLE WITH SOUTH WINDS REPORTED AT ALL WEATHER OBS STATIONS
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MAY REVERSE COURSE
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BACK DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. MY LATEST FORECAST
BRINGS IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MYRTLE BEACH AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AWFULLY "BAGGY" IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG NORTH CAROLINA COAST MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3 FEET AT THE SUNSET BEACH BUOY...AND JUST
UNDER 4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY AND OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY...NECESSITATING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE
FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROUGH STALLED NEAR THE COAST KEEPS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE EXPECT THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA
OR JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY WHILE WINDS ON THE
EAST SIDE WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE WIND
DIRECTION ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM A S OR SE
DIRECTION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
FROM EXCEEDING 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT WITH PERHAPS
SOME 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. A STILL RATHER WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION
DURING THIS TIME AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COAST. A 3 TO PERHAPS 4 FOOT SWELL WITH 11 SECOND PERIOD WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY FROM BERTHA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AT
THAT TIME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...III/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS STEADY RAINFALL EXITING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND CURRENTLY MINIMAL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAST/COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXITING
THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS TREND IS
DEPICTED BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
THIS TREND WITH POPS DROPPING OFF THEN RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING...IN A PATTERN NOT UNLIKE THIS MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL
MID-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES. NO CHANGES MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE
INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING SHORT WAVES THRU THE MOIST SSW
FLOW. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOISTURE RICH, TROPICAL AIRMASS ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. 1-3
INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THRU
SATURDAY BUT UNDOUBTABLE WILL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
CLOUDS/PRECIP HOLDS HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 BUT CUD SEE TEMPS A
LITTLE HIGHER IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON NEAR TERM FLOODING AND
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT CONCERNS.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE CONTINUING TO TRAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH PWATS REMAINING ABOVE
2 INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA.
WPC AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MUCH
OF EASTERN NC HAVING RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN LAST
MONTH...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES SO FAR TODAY...FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN A THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT A MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE KEEPS CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWER CLOUD LAYERS MIX OUT ALTHO SHUD SEE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASE AGAIN AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
UP THE COAST IN THE MOIST SSW FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ENC IN FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT GENERALLY E/SE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER
THE WATERS AND SOUNDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 3 TO 4
FEET. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST INLAND OF THE COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINING A SE WIND
MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SCA...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SEAS BUILD SOME TUESDAY AS SWELLS FROM TC
BERTHA BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY
SHOWING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. CURRENT NHC AND
MODEL CONSENSUS RE-CURVES THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE...GREATER THAN
300 MILES...SO IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
RESTRICTED TO MARINE CONCERNS AND BEACH-GOERS WITH AN INCREASED RIP
CURRENT THREAT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE...JUST A MINOR TWEAK DOWNWARD TO POPS IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION IN THE NORTH IS SLIDING
TO THE NORTH. SERN SHOWERS ALMOST NIL AT THIS POINT. BUT THE MAIN
SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH SHARPENING SFC TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE INTO
THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN
LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THERE. NWRN
LIMIT OF THE RAIN IS SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF AOO AND UNV. TEMPS ALMOST DOWN TO
DEWPOINTS...SO SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE PLACES IT RAINED EARLIER.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT/ON-TRACK.
PREVIOUS...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.
THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.
NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.
DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.
A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE...JUST A MINOR TWEAK DOWNWARD TO POPS IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION IN THE NORTH IS SLIDING
TO THE NORTH. SERN SHOWERS ALMOST NIL AT THIS POINT. BUT THE MAIN
SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH SHARPENING SFC TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE INTO
THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN
LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THERE. NWRN
LIMIT OF THE RAIN IS SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF AOO AND UNV. TEMPS ALMOST DOWN TO
DEWPOINTS...SO SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE PLACES IT RAINED EARLIER.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT/ON-TRACK.
PREVIOUS...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.
THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.
NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.
DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.
A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.
FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
830 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.
THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.
NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.
DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.
A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.
FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.
17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.
ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA.
WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.
THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.
17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.
ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA.
WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS WITH
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL...BUT A BAND OF SHRA WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE FIELD THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS THRU EARLY EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE AT/NEAR THE FIELD PRIOR
TO THIS BAND MAY FIRE UP ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. IN GENERAL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS
MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 85% LOW 59% HIGH 91% HIGH 93%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 84% HIGH 95% MED 65%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 80% MED 62%
KGMU HIGH 94% MED 64% HIGH 95% HIGH 87%
KAND HIGH 87% MED 60% HIGH 100% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
010>012-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 86% MED 73% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 83% MED 75% HIGH 88% HIGH 90%
KAVL MED 75% HIGH 87% HIGH 91% MED 75%
KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 93% MED 71% MED 70%
KGMU HIGH 91% MED 76% HIGH 87% HIGH 90%
KAND HIGH 86% MED 69% HIGH 94% HIGH 90%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
010>012-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED AT MIDEVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTH MS. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE TROF MAINLY BELOW 500MB...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LA.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AT MIDEVENING...AND REDUCED BUT NOT
ELIMINATED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED IN
THE AVIATION SECTION EARLIER... SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTH OF MEMPHIS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE A MILE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES
WHILE CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KMKL..KTUP... AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FROM TO MVFR LEVELS.
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 4Z AT KMEM AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KTUP
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...GENERALLY OVER
THE PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE MAIN FORCING IS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLATEAU/SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. LATEST
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH THETA-E OVER THIS AREA WITH
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONTINUE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS
THERE AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD COVER. AS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 86 66 88 / 30 40 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 86 64 87 / 20 20 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 83 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ZDM
.AVIATION...
VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES
WHILE CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KMKL..KTUP... AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FROM TO MVFR LEVELS.
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 4Z AT KMEM AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KTUP
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED FROM
NEW JERSEY INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY THE WEDGE ERODES
AND THE COASTAL FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VERY MINOR UPDATE FOR POPS GIVEN MOST OF RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN LATEST HRRR EVEN DRIER OVERNIGHT. SOME
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES SO NEEDED TO PULL MINS DOWN IN SOME LOCATIONS ANOTHER
NOTCH. SPREAD SOME OF THE FOG/DRIZZLE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SPOTS AND MADE SURE ENTIRE BLUE RIDGE WAS INCLUDED.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WANE AS THE UPPER WAVE IS NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STEADIER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...LEAVING ONLY VERY LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST.
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP WATER VALUES AND
THERE IS STILL A GOOD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT SEEN IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND VWP FROM THE RADAR...SO CANNOT RULE OUT VERY
SHALLOW UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE HARD TO
DETECT ON RADAR. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE EASTERLY COMPONENT AT THE RIDGE
TOP LEVEL LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO SOUNDING FCSTS...BUT THINK LOW
LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG AND SO WORTH KEEPING MENTION
OF DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG ALL NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE HANDLING THINGS
PRETTY WELL NOW AND SHOW ONLY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHWRS
HERE AND THERE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF FCST AREA...HAVE GENERALLY
LOWERED POPS EVEN MORE FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT TO LOW TO MID CHC
BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...AND NOTHING OR JUST SLIGHT CHC WEST.
OTHER CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT GIVEN FACT THAT CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS WERE ALREADY
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FCST MINS...ALTHOUGH DON`T THINK IN MOST
CASES CURRENT TEMPS WILL DROP MORE THAN A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
WHAT THEY ARE NOW...IF ANYTHING.
PRELIM LOOK AT TOMORROW SUGGESTS WEDGE WILL TRY TO BREAK DURING
THE DAY...BUT MAY HOLD ON AS LONG AS POSSIBLE OVER NRV AND PARTS
OF PIEDMONT...WHILE BREAKING EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE BREAKING WEDGE...AND THINK BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THESE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
WERE SUN IS OUT THE LONGEST. WARMER AT BLF LIKELY AGAIN COMPARED
TO LYH. NO CHANGES IN THAT PERIOD YET THOUGH AS WE AWAIT MORE
GUIDANCE FROM OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 614 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAIN LIFT WITH UPPER WAVE THAT IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WRN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT AREAS AND WHAT UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EXISTS THIS
EVENING IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE
RADAR NOW SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE
EVENING WHILE THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE EAST QUICKLY
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HARD TO SEE ANY REASONING FOR MUCH OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE CWA AND THE
WEDGE GIVEN THAT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST SOON. THUS AM
LOWERING POPS FOR MOST OF THE WEST TO SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME LOW CHC
REMAINING UP ACROSS GREENBRIER IN CASE ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION
FARTHER NORTH BACKBUILDS...AND GRADUALLY LOWER THE LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL FAR EAST FOR JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF TO MID CHC...AND WILL DETERMINE
LATE IF WE NEED TO DROP THAT EVEN MORE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
WHEN THIS UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED OFF...LEAVING WEAKENING UPSLOPE
ALONG BLUE RIDGE AS 850 FLOW TURNS MORE SW BEHIND IT. DON`T THINK
THIS SW FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...SO
AM KEEPING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN ALL NIGHT. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ON WESTERN FRINGE WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE...BUT
THIS MAY FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
ALSO PULLED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE HWO AS THERE ARE
NOT ANY EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE EVEN
MINOR ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING STREETS IN THE
EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...
TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA HELPED GENERATE THE LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING. THE SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS
APPROACHING SOUTH CAROLINA AND WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...20-25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 MB WINDS
TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 850 MB AS THE WEDGE AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ON
SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE CAROLINA WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAD THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS WHERE THE WEDGE IS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN WEDGE ERODES.
EXPECTING TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PROGRESSION...WITH
LYNCHBURG AND THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
LAST TO BREAK OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE AXIS OF THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD MOISTURE
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION. THE INTERPLAY OF
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...THERE WILL BE
A CHANGE IN JUST HOW THIS FEATURE IS MATERIALIZED. THROUGH ROUGHLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THE FEATURE WILL BE THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. THIS LOW HOWEVER WILL SHIFT EAST BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THIS MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO FADE
IN INTENSITY ONLY BRIEFLY. BY SUNDAY...THE REMNANT OF THIS FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRENGTHENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FROM THE
WEST. DESPITE THIS FLUCTUATION...THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL BE AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
THE TIME PERIOD WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST
IS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF
BROADENING THE WIDTH OF THE TROUGH...AND SHIFTING THE AXIS A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE RESULT OF LIKEWISE
SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER WEST VIRGINIA WHILE
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TS BERTHA OR
WHAT IS REMAINING OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AND PARTIALLY STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE PWATS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING AND TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. FOCUS
OF THE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY NORTH
OF ROUTE 460.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. 850MB
TEMPS OF +15-17C WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP NIGHT TIME TEMPS UP A
BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...
EXPECT SFC WEDGE TO HOLD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ANY AREAS
WEST TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAT HAVE SEEN WEAK EROSION OF THE
WEDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE IT FILL IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WAS PULLING OUT OF THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME.
SOME WEAK WAVES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TO MENTION OF -RA AT TIMES
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA...BUT MOSTLY FROM THIS
POINT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE WEDGE COMBINED WITH THE
LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOIST/RELATIVELY COOL GROUND IN MOST AREAS
WILL YIELD TO AREAS OF -DZ AND BR/FG OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KLWB...WHERE RAIN DID NOT FALL EARLIER AND LATE DAY CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED OUT. THIS SHOULD SET UP KLWB FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOCALLY DENSE GROUND FOG. GIVEN MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AND PRESENCE OF WEDGE...POTENTIAL FOR KLWB TO DROP TO 0SM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ANY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING TO TREND QUICKLY TO
MVFR AND THEN LIKELY IFR AFT 06Z IN MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT 00Z DOWNWARD TO
MOSTLY MVFR IN -DZ OR -RA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
VFR CIGS WEST O THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFT 15Z SAT. WINDS...MOSTLY NE-SE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-8KTS...EXCEPT WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...I.E. KLWB AND KBLF...WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE IN THE
MORNING LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT SE TO SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
RESPECT TO TSRA POTENTIAL SAT AFTERNOON...THAT SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF VERY STABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...AND LIMITED DYNAMICS TO THE WEST. IF ANY TSRA
DEVELOPED...THEY WOULD LIKELY ONLY IMPACT BLF AND/OR LWB.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYB THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF THE REGION WITH TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUN-MON...FAVORING EITHER THE MOUNTAINS OR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE WEAK AT
BEST. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...SUCH AS LWB...BCB...AND LYH.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
THE REGION...MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/SK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
932 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED FROM
NEW JERSEY INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY THE WEDGE ERODES
AND THE COASTAL FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WANE AS THE UPPER WAVE IS NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STEADIER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...LEAVING ONLY VERY LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST.
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP WATER VALUES AND
THERE IS STILL A GOOD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT SEEN IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND VWP FROM THE RADAR...SO CANNOT RULE OUT VERY
SHALLOW UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE HARD TO
DETECT ON RADAR. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE EASTERLY COMPONENT AT THE RIDGE
TOP LEVEL LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO SOUNDING FCSTS...BUT THINK LOW
LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG AND SO WORTH KEEPING MENTION
OF DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG ALL NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE HANDLING THINGS
PRETTY WELL NOW AND SHOW ONLY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHWRS
HERE AND THERE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF FCST AREA...HAVE GENERALLY
LOWERED POPS EVEN MORE FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT TO LOW TO MID CHC
BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...AND NOTHING OR JUST SLIGHT CHC WEST.
OTHER CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT GIVEN FACT THAT CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS WERE ALREADY
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FCST MINS...ALTHOUGH DON`T THINK IN MOST
CASES CURRENT TEMPS WILL DROP MORE THAN A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
WHAT THEY ARE NOW...IF ANYTHING.
PRELIM LOOK AT TOMORROW SUGGESTS WEDGE WILL TRY TO BREAK DURING
THE DAY...BUT MAY HOLD ON AS LONG AS POSSIBLE OVER NRV AND PARTS
OF PIEDMONT...WHILE BREAKING EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE BREAKING WEDGE...AND THINK BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THESE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
WERE SUN IS OUT THE LONGEST. WARMER AT BLF LIKELY AGAIN COMPARED
TO LYH. NO CHANGES IN THAT PERIOD YET THOUGH AS WE AWAIT MORE
GUIDANCE FROM OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 614 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAIN LIFT WITH UPPER WAVE THAT IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WRN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT AREAS AND WHAT UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EXISTS THIS
EVENING IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE
RADAR NOW SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE
EVENING WHILE THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE EAST QUICKLY
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HARD TO SEE ANY REASONING FOR MUCH OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE CWA AND THE
WEDGE GIVEN THAT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST SOON. THUS AM
LOWERING POPS FOR MOST OF THE WEST TO SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME LOW CHC
REMAINING UP ACROSS GREENBRIER IN CASE ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION
FARTHER NORTH BACKBUILDS...AND GRADUALLY LOWER THE LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL FAR EAST FOR JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF TO MID CHC...AND WILL DETERMINE
LATE IF WE NEED TO DROP THAT EVEN MORE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
WHEN THIS UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED OFF...LEAVING WEAKENING UPSLOPE
ALONG BLUE RIDGE AS 850 FLOW TURNS MORE SW BEHIND IT. DON`T THINK
THIS SW FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...SO
AM KEEPING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN ALL NIGHT. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ON WESTERN FRINGE WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE...BUT
THIS MAY FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
ALSO PULLED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE HWO AS THERE ARE
NOT ANY EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE EVEN
MINOR ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING STREETS IN THE
EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...
TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA HELPED GENERATE THE LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING. THE SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS
APPROACHING SOUTH CAROLINA AND WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...20-25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 MB WINDS
TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 850 MB AS THE WEDGE AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ON
SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE CAROLINA WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAD THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS WHERE THE WEDGE IS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN WEDGE ERODES.
EXPECTING TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PROGRESSION...WITH
LYNCHBURG AND THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
LAST TO BREAK OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE AXIS OF THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD MOISTURE
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION. THE INTERPLAY OF
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...THERE WILL BE
A CHANGE IN JUST HOW THIS FEATURE IS MATERIALIZED. THROUGH ROUGHLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THE FEATURE WILL BE THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. THIS LOW HOWEVER WILL SHIFT EAST BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THIS MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO FADE
IN INTENSITY ONLY BRIEFLY. BY SUNDAY...THE REMNANT OF THIS FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRENGTHENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FROM THE
WEST. DESPITE THIS FLUCTUATION...THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL BE AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
THE TIME PERIOD WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST
IS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF
BROADENING THE WIDTH OF THE TROUGH...AND SHIFTING THE AXIS A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE RESULT OF LIKEWISE
SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER WEST VIRGINIA WHILE
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TS BERTHA OR
WHAT IS REMAINING OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AND PARTIALLY STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE PWATS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING AND TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. FOCUS
OF THE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY NORTH
OF ROUTE 460.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. 850MB
TEMPS OF +15-17C WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP NIGHT TIME TEMPS UP A
BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...
EXPECT SFC WEDGE TO HOLD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ANY AREAS
WEST TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THAT HAVE SEEN WEAK EROSION OF THE
WEDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE IT FILL IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WAS PULLING OUT OF THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME.
SOME WEAK WAVES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TO MENTION OF -RA AT TIMES
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA...BUT MOSTLY FROM THIS
POINT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE WEDGE COMBINED WITH THE
LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOIST/RELATIVELY COOL GROUND IN MOST AREAS
WILL YIELD TO AREAS OF -DZ AND BR/FG OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KLWB...WHERE RAIN DID NOT FALL EARLIER AND LATE DAY CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED OUT. THIS SHOULD SET UP KLWB FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOCALLY DENSE GROUND FOG. GIVEN MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AND PRESENCE OF WEDGE...POTENTIAL FOR KLWB TO DROP TO 0SM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ANY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING TO TREND QUICKLY TO
MVFR AND THEN LIKELY IFR AFT 06Z IN MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT 00Z DOWNWARD TO
MOSTLY MVFR IN -DZ OR -RA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
VFR CIGS WEST O THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFT 15Z SAT. WINDS...MOSTLY NE-SE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-8KTS...EXCEPT WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...I.E. KLWB AND KBLF...WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE IN THE
MORNING LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT SE TO SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
RESPECT TO TSRA POTENTIAL SAT AFTERNOON...THAT SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF VERY STABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...AND LIMITED DYNAMICS TO THE WEST. IF ANY TSRA
DEVELOPED...THEY WOULD LIKELY ONLY IMPACT BLF AND/OR LWB.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYB THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF THE REGION WITH TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUN-MON...FAVORING EITHER THE MOUNTAINS OR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE WEAK AT
BEST. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...SUCH AS LWB...BCB...AND LYH.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
THE REGION...MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/SK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE KLSE.
HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN HOW MUCH
DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS. 17Z DEW
POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT THEY WERE
LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING. INCLUDED A BCFG
SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE
A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT AND IF BR/FG CHANCES
AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION AND SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI MORNING IN THE 13-18Z
PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.
JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF 5K CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 31.14Z. THEER MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01.02Z AND 01.05Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS DIRES OUT SO MUCH DURING THE
DAY...THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER
WITH STILL A RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE
FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
555 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. STILL EXPECT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO TREK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED THE RISK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO LINE
UP WITH DEVELOPING TOWERING CU SEEN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY...IN ADDITION
TO THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MINIMAL CAPE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THO...SO NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
BECOME STRONG NOR WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVELS LOOKING OVERALL LESS
ENERGETIC THAN TODAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT ANTICIPATED...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT COVERAGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS...SO CONFINED CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 14C.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE MID TO UPPERLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS FOR INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...MODELS SHOW POOR CONSISTENCY AND ARE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS AND GEM...WITH THE GEM ALSO
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS IS MAKING POP AND WEATHER FORECASTS
DIFFICULT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF WHICH DAYS HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTBREAKS. THEREFORE...KEPT POP NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS NEARLY EVERYDAY HOWEVER. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING IN SOME FORM. WEAK WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH A SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S...WHICH
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE. KEPT TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS DUE TO AN OBSERVED WARM BIAS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z IN THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PASS OVER THE SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH 30 PERCENTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALSO ALONG
THE PINE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER A CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RAIN IS
SLOWLY ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DELMARVA AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH RES MODELS
AND LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
LIKELY FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING FOR DUTCHESS...LITCHFIELD
AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DROP
CONSIDERABLY NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOMEWHAT
DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL 5KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATING A SMATTERING OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH TERRAIN PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHOUGH MANY
AREAS WILL STILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY DARK...AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
STRAY SHOWER AT SOME POINT SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF MAIN FEATURES...GREATER COVERAGE WILL IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STARTING TO DAMPEN OUT A BIT...AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED SO JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...WITH
SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SO AT THIS TIME IT DOES
APPEAR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. AGAIN
SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
RESULTING IN MARGINALLY COOLER MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING STILL WEST OF THE REGION BUT THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BUT COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME COOLING AND DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS
TO A POSSIBLE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY BUT LOTS OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CLEAR SIGNAL FAR IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY BUILDING NORTH AND AFTER
SUNRISE SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD AFFECT KPOU. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT KPSF AND KPOU...WITH SOME
MVFR FOG AT KPOU. AFTER ABOUT 13Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE
VFR EXCEPT KPOU WHERE MVFR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z AND KPSF WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS
COULD HANG ON UNTIL AROUND 17Z.
SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
CONFLICTS IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AS TO SOME POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
RAIN DEVELOPING TOMORROW EVENING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...AS
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE JUST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AGAIN...JUST INDICATING VFR WITH
VCSH TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL WEATHER EVOLUTION MORE APPARENT IN
DATA AND GUIDANCE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTH AT 10 KT
OR LESS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 50
AND 60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MIN RH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BE AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ASSOCIATED
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. FLORIDA IS JUST ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE IN
THE EAST TO NOT BE UNDER THIS TROUGH...AS A WEAK "SLIVER" OF RIDGING
REMAINS OVERHEAD...EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE MAIN RIDGE
CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE 02/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT LAYERS OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY A TOUCH ON THE HIGH SIDE...CALCULATED AT NEAR 2" THIS PAST
EVENING...AND LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS VALUES SHOULD CREEP
UP EVEN HIGHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT AND VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST AREA RESIDES AT THE BASE OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH IS QUITE
ILL-DEFINED THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL RESULT IN A WEAK EASTERLY
1000-700MB MEAN FLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE WILL COMPLICATE
THINGS. REGIONAL RADARS ARE FAIRLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY. EITHER WAY...THINGS SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET SIDE UNTIL THE
LATER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ABOVE A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE
MORNING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE 80S.
LOOKING AT EVERYTHING AVAILABLE...CAN NOT SEE WHY THIS AFTERNOON
WOULD NOT BE FAIRLY ACTIVE IN TERMS OF STORMS...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. MINIMUM THETA-E
VALUES ALOFT ARE JUST SHY OF 330K...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. WE DO NOT LOOK FOR AN ATMOSPHERE BECOMING HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION UNTIL THESE VALUES DROP DOWN TOWARD 320K. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE JUST WHERE THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS.
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THE VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE
SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING INLAND. THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY MAY BE OVER PINELLAS
COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE GULF AND
TAMPA BAY BREEZES. IN FACT THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE LOCAL HIRES WRFARW
HAVE ALL PRODUCED A STORM OVER PINELLAS COUNTY AROUND 17-18Z. WHILE
IT IS HIGHLY IMPROPER TO EVER SUGGEST ANY NWP GUIDANCE AS GROUND
TRUTH (ESPECIALLY AN EXPLICIT CONVECTION SOLUTION)...IT IS
CURIOUS THAT SEVERAL DIFFERENT GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH DIFFERENT
PHYSICS PACKAGES ALL PIN THIS SAME AREA AT ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF IT VERIFIES. THEREAFTER...FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK TO SET UP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE THE GULF SEABREEZE AND LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW MEET.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE SWATH THAT SEEMS TO BE MOST LIKELY FOR
STORMS...THE SYNOPTIC INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK
FOCUS FOR ASCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...SO AT LEAST CLIMO POPS WILL
NEED TO BE FORECAST FOR AREA OUTSIDE THE FAVORED I-75 ZONE.
INITIALLY AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND A
BIT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DECREASED RAIN CHANCES AT THE
BEACHES. WILL THIS LAST THE REST OF THE DAY OR WILL STORMS COME BACK
WESTWARD LATE IN THE DAY ONCE AGAIN? GOOD QUESTION. DEEP LAYER STORM
MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS VIRTUALLY NONE EXISTENT. SO...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING. THE SEA-BREEZE
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG AND SO ANY STRONGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
BE ABLE TO FIGHT ITS WAY WESTWARD BACK TO THE COAST AND KICK OFF NEW
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NOT BRING THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ALL
THE WAY BACK TO THE BEACHES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP A CHANCE POP IN
THE GRIDS IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
IN THE DAY WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE HARBOR WHERE THE EASTERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE A BIT MORE DEFINED.
A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER TODAY. THE SLOW STORM MOTION GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
LAYER FLOW AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
REALLY DRENCH THE LOCATIONS THEY ARE OVER. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MINIMUM THETA-E VALUES ALOFT AND SURFACE VALUES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 20-25K THIS AFTERNOON. STUDIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES HAVE FOUND VALUES OVER 20K ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF
WET MICROBURSTS. THE ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE STRONGER CELLS...LEADING TO WIND GUST POTENTIAL UPON
CONVECTIVE COLUMN COLLAPSE.
SUNDAY...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF ENSEMBLES. THE NAM/SREF SEEM A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND CLOSE
OFF A DEFINED CIRCULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD SEEM MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM ALOFT.
THE GFS/ECMWF ALIGN THE TROUGHING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA
WHICH RESULTS IN VERY ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC FLOW. THEREFORE...NEITHER
THE EAST OR WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE IS LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT. BEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO APPROACH 2.2"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL HIGHLY SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.
HAVE 70-75% RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO 40-50% AT THE BEACHES. ONCE AGAIN THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THERE AS THE STORM MOTION WILL BE VERY
SLOW...AND THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE MAV
NUMBERS AND CAPPED HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. ANTICIPATED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...ALONG AND EARLIER INITIATION...AND RESULTING
CIRRUS CANOPY LATER IN THE DAY SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S ARE
UNLIKELY. HAVE A GREAT START TO YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH RESIDES ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH A RATHER RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS
THE GULF AS THE LATEST NHC TRACK MOVES BERTHA NORTH THEN NE ACROSS
THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. BEGINNING MID-WEEK...AS BERTHA IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FL AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL OR NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY WEEKS END.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE
THAT TREND DOWN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...IN THE LOW TO MID
RANGE...TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE CONTROL. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW
WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALTHOUGH A MORE EAST TO SE
COMPONENT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY CONTINUES TO FADE. STORMS LOOK ACTIVE LATER
TODAY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. LATE IN THE DAY KPIE/KTPA LOOK TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION. STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
FOR MORE EXTENDED PERIODS OF RESTRICTION AS THE PASS OVER A TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING TURNING WINDS ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THEN
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET EACH EVENING.
LOOK FOR A SCATTERING OF STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEA-BREEZE...HOWEVER INLAND...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IN ADDITION...TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 78 91 79 / 60 40 60 40
FMY 92 76 91 78 / 60 30 70 50
GIF 94 76 92 77 / 60 30 70 50
SRQ 90 77 90 77 / 40 40 40 30
BKV 94 73 92 73 / 60 40 70 40
SPG 91 80 91 81 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCES/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
GENERAL QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
LAST OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTHERN
CWA. ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR IS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER INDIANA AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH BROUGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST...AND WITH THE CWA CURRENTLY IN MORE OF A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS CLOUDS FURTHER
CLEAR...STILL AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN PLACE TO EXPAND WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS IDEA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH DOES SEEM
REASONABLE AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH LOWER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS RESIDES. MADE MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.
DID BACK OFF ON POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND NOW
ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. GUIDANCE DOES VARY THIS MORNING FROM NOT DEVELOPING
ANYTHING...TO DEVELOPING SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DID TREND MORE TOWARDS THE LESSER COVERAGE...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO EXIT AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A PERIOD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA. DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL NOT BE THERE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THAT COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO
ONCE AGAIN DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT NOT THERE...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH ANY
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND DID ADJUST UPWARDS
STAYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
AFTER A QUIET/DRY NIGHT TONIGHT...BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA WITH SIMILAR TEMP/MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HELP BRING A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES BEGIN TO DIVERGE
INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR AS IF CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE WITH NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
* SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WEAK ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN VERY WEAK TODAY...THOUGH VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD BE AIDED BY LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BE ONE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FEATURE WHERE ISOLATED TSRA COULD DEVELOP...THOUGH
WITH LESS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED DRY TAFS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND POINT PROBABILITY AT ANY LOCATION LOWER
THAN 30 PERCENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WIND.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT
PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CDT
MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FEW AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND BAGGY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE DRIVEN BY DAILY LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
PASSAGES...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN SLOWED AND SOME
DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS WELL.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday
07z/2am radar imagery shows a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across the southeast KILX CWA, with dry conditions elsewhere around
central Illinois. Upper trough responsible for the convection is
slowly sliding eastward and will be positioned over eastern Indiana
by midday. As a result, strongest synoptic lift will be focused
further east across the Ohio River Valley today. Despite an
uncapped airmass featuring CAPE values of around 1500J/kg, think
slightly warmer temps aloft and subsidence on the back side of the
trough will prevent precip development later today. Most model
guidance agrees, with only the 4km WRF-NMM showing widely
scattered convection developing across north-central Illinois late
this afternoon. Given good model agreement, have opted to remove
slight chance PoPs and go with a dry forecast.
Surface high pressure will control the weather on Sunday, leading
to a warm/dry day with highs climbing into the lower to middle
80s. Once the high slides off to the east, an approaching
short-wave and associated frontal boundary will begin to increase
rain chances early next week. Monday appears to be the last
completely dry day of the forecast period, with forcing remaining
N/NW of central Illinois.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
Cold front will sag southward and become nearly stationary across
central Illinois beginning on Tuesday. Several upper short-waves
are expected to ride along the boundary, producing periodic
showers/thunder throughout the week. It is difficult to pinpoint
the exact timing and track of these subtle features this far in
advance, so chance PoPs will be included in the forecast from
Tuesday through Friday. As timing becomes a little more clear, may
be able to pin down a period or two where PoPs will be higher and
other times where conditions will remain dry. As it stands now, a
warm and somewhat unsettled week is unfolding. Most model
solutions gradually drop the boundary southward into the Ohio
River Valley by the end of the week, so rain chances will likely
diminish from north to south by Friday/Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Main concern for the upcoming TAF set is with visibilities through
early morning. Although convection has ended, skies still mostly
cloudy as of late evening. Satellite imagery showing this will be
eroding from KBMI/KDEC westward over the next few hours, but may
persist at KCMI a good part of the night. Already seeing some
patchy MVFR visibility around 5SM, and am expecting this to become
more widespread. Have introduced a period of lower visibilities of
2 to 3SM from about 10-13Z with the winds nearly calm and recent
rainfall. Heaviest rain on Friday occurred near KSPI and KDEC, and
went with lower visibilities around 2SM there. RAP model soundings
showing the fog should be rather shallow. After that, some
scattered diurnal cumulus expected to develop around 4000 feet,
but the threat of rain should be further east.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
143 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CIRRUS SHIELD FLOATING
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME POCKETS OF CUMULUS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LAKE BREEZE WAS BEGINNING TO BE DEPICTED WELL ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...WHICH WAS CREATING A LCL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ALLOWING
SOME OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO ENHANCE SLIGHTLY. SFC TEMPS THIS AFTN
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE PR 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MORNING
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS DISSOLVED WITH VERY SKINNY CAPE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...AROUND 10-20KTS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH TOWARDS SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER A FEW
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE AROUND 0.5" DIAMETER HAIL
AND A BRIEF GUST TO 50 MPH. THE LARGEST CONCERN OF ANY WILL BE THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED PONDING/FLOODING.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT ONCE SUNSET OCCURS THE MINIMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME
EVEN LESS THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING LESS FOCUS FOR PRECIP.
SO HAVE TRENDED DRY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF DRYING AT
THE SFC...LLVL MOISTURE SHUD REMAIN AND THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT VSBYS TO NOT GO BELOW 2SM...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS
WHERE AFTN RAINFALL COULD FURTHER REDUCE VSBYS TO ARND 1SM.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SAT AND LIKELY INTO SUN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY SAT...WITH A LACK OF ANY WAVES OVERHEAD.
ALTHOUGH BY MIDDAY SAT THERE IS A WEAK MID-LVL WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
SFC INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE FOR
SAT/SUN...WHICH WOULD ALSO ADD TO THE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS A FEW PULSE STORMS. TEMPS SHUD AGAIN NEAR SEASONAL CONDS
SAT/SUN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ARND 80 BOTH DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPS DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD HOLD IN THE
UPR 70S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE.
MONDAY THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK...
ENSEMBLES IN THE LONG RANGE APPEAR TO BE SUGGESTING THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC BLOCK WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT EAST AND FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS POINTS TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OF SYSTEMS
SLIDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SO PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS PROBABLE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY SUB-SEASONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE WITH NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
* SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WEAK ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN VERY WEAK TODAY...THOUGH VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD BE AIDED BY LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BE ONE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FEATURE WHERE ISOLATED TSRA COULD DEVELOP...THOUGH
WITH LESS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED DRY TAFS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND POINT PROBABILITY AT ANY LOCATION LOWER
THAN 30 PERCENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WIND.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT
PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE LAKE...AND THEN GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF
THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY THAT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WILL BIT SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE IN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
BUT STILL REMAINING UNDER 15 KT OR SO. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE GRADIENT AGAIN BECOMING RATHER
WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...THUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OR OVERHEAD EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SOMETIME BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY
LATER IN THE WEEK. WAVES GENERALLY REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Much of the convection that formed earlier today has faded with
sunset, but some storms persist from near Beardstown northwest
toward Burlington IA. That particular area still has some CAPE`s
around 1500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis, which will help sustain them
for another hour or two, although the latest RAP model shows the
instability weakening with time.
Large area of mostly clear skies west of the Mississippi River,
and skies should start clearing from west to east in our area,
although clouds will likely hang on near the Indiana border much
of the night. Development of fog is most likely in the areas that
had the most rain earlier today, with nearly calm winds overnight,
with speed of development based on the clearing.
Have sent some updated grids to reflect latest precipitation and
temperature trends. Updated zones to follow shortly.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Main concern for the upcoming TAF set is with visibilities through
early morning. Although convection has ended, skies still mostly
cloudy as of late evening. Satellite imagery showing this will be
eroding from KBMI/KDEC westward over the next few hours, but may
persist at KCMI a good part of the night. Already seeing some
patchy MVFR visibility around 5SM, and am expecting this to become
more widespread. Have introduced a period of lower visibilities of
2 to 3SM from about 10-13Z with the winds nearly calm and recent
rainfall. Heaviest rain on Friday occurred near KSPI and KDEC, and
went with lower visibilities around 2SM there. RAP model soundings
showing the fog should be rather shallow. After that, some
scattered diurnal cumulus expected to develop around 4000 feet,
but the threat of rain should be further east.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Very little change to our overall weather pattern is expected into
the middle of next week as the upper level northwest flow
continues. This will result in temperatures at or just below
seasonal normals, with shortwave troughs providing a focus for
showers/t-storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Medium range models
showing a shift in our pattern by Thursday, but there are quite a
few differences regarding how this will take place and what the
associated sensible weather will be.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night
Diurnal convection this afternoon has been getting a boost from a
shortwave trough moving into the area. The surface reflection was
only a weak wind shift, but this was enough to combine with the
instability and convective updrafts to produce several funnel
clouds in central and east central IL this afternoon. The radar
indicated a myriad of outflow boundaries with scattered
thunderstorms east of the IL River and very isolated showers to
the west. Will keep the mention of scattered t-storms in the
forecast for this evening generally along and east of I-55, with a
mention of isolated showers/few t-storms to the west.
The scattered rainfall, some of which was heavy in spots, will
contribute low level moisture to help produce patchy fog overnight
and into Saturday morning. The shortwave moving across the Midwest
tonight could linger just long enough in extreme eastern IL to
produce scattered showers/t-storms early Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, weak high pressure will begin to approach later
Saturday and settle into the area Sunday with mostly sunny
conditions and temperatures in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
A southerly wind will develop Monday ahead of the next approaching
cold front from the northwest. This will give us gradually
increasing humidity and temperatures closer to normal for early
August.
There are some model differences with the speed of the cold front,
with the GFS being quicker and the European and Canadian on the
slower side. The GFS may be a bit too quick with its frontal
depiction, so will keep the chance for thunderstorms north of I-74
for Monday night, and gradually drop them southward with the front
Tuesday.
As the models start to depict a breakdown in the northwest flow to
more of a zonal flow, their differences start to show up with the
position of the front Wednesday through Friday. The Canadian model
is farther north while the GFS drops it south toward the OH valley
Wednesday then lift it back north as a warm front by Friday.
Prefer the European solution of settling the front into southern
IL then pretty much keeping it there through the end of the week.
This would result in periods of showers and thunderstorms with
high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ON TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AS EXPECTED...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS WANED
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SUN HAS SET. GENERALLY EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE AT BEST REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE SOLE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SMALL STORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHICH HAS THE ASSISTANCE OF A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES FROM
PRIOR CONVECTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL REMNANT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND HAS HELD ITS OWN FOR A WHILE NOW. THAT
SAID...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS EXTREMELY WEAKLY SHEARED IF AT
ALL...INSTABILITY IS 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND WANING...AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS INCREASING. THUS...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OR
DIE BEFORE MAKING THE AREA...AND HRRR BEARS THIS OUT.
DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ACCUMULATING HAIL OCCURRED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE BUT
BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND LIKELY NOT WORTH A GRID MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE NECESSARY OWING TO
RECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SHOULD STILL SEE ACTIVITY ON A
DOWNSWING AROUND SUNSET AS HEATING IS LOST...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL AS WITH PRIOR FORECAST CONTINUE
AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...PERHAPS PRODIGIOUSLY AS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK. THE LARGE
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE DAY IN
LAFAYETTE IS TYPICAL OF SUCH CORES IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND THE EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT.
ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AFTER
SUNSET AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE DIURNAL LAST FEW DAYS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP. IT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE...BUT NERVELESS WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS
INTO LATE TONIGHT PER MODELS. IN OTHER AREAS SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ON EAST INTO OHIO.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP NORTHEAST AREAS AT OR ABOVE 60 WITH MORE CLOUDS
THERE LATER TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY PREFER THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS AND WENT WITH A MOS BLEND IN THE EAST. THE MET HAS 74
FOR A HIGH AT MUNCIE...WHILE THE MAV IS 82. MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THERE A LITTLE MORE...BUT 74 SEEMS A
BIT TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END SATURDAY EVENING...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY ALL
AREAS REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH FOR US TO
REMAIN DRY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS
AIR MASS BECOMES A LITTLE DRIER AND HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODELS
KEEP A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION. OVERALL A MOS BLEND
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AFTER A DRY SPELL ENSEMBLES HINTING AT CENTRAL INDIANA POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO A WETTER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY AND TIMING TO
THIS LATEST SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND THEREFORE LEFT POPS
AT LOW END CHANCE MOST TIMES. MODELS HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT TIMING DIFFERS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. ALLBLEND IS CARRYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES LEADING
UP TO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND THE NORMAL RANGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW TO MID 80S HIGHS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...HOWEVER AN AREA OF RAIN IS
EXPANDING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED MAINLY AT KHUF/KIND/KBMG
THROUGH ABOUT 021000Z.
OTHERWISE...FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM EARLIER THAN EXPECTED DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY NOW...SO WILL ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST ROUGHLY
020700Z-021300Z. CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 050 EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
MID MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED AROUND 030 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.
NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH 021800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JAS/CP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Latest water vapor loops shows a shortwave axis moving over
Missouri with subsidence over eastern Kansas at 19Z. Surface trough
and low extended from northeast to southwest Kansas. Scattered
clouds have developed in layer around 750-700mb and forecast
soundings from the RUC show clouds dissolving by 02Z. Winds expected
to become easterly this evening as the surface low and trough moves
into southeast Kansas. Some isentropic lift develops after 06Z
tonight with low condensation pressure deficits over east central
Kansas. NAM has best lift over southeast Kansas after 09Z on the
305K isentropic surface. Have kept in some partly cloudy skies in
east central Kansas later tonight and into early Saturday morning.
There is little in the way of upper support, but could see some
isolated very light showers or sprinkles develop in the isentropic
lift and models have shown over the last few runs. Lows tonight will
range from the lower to mid 60s.
Saturday, the northwest upper flow continues with heights rising
slightly through the day. Expect highs to be a few degrees warmer
out toward central Kansas and similar to today. Some small chances
of showers are possible on Saturday with weak embedded waves and
some weak isentropic lift especially in the morning. With nothing
showing up upstream in water vapor will keep the dry forecast going.
Models show a 700 mb wave over north central Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. The NAM develops some showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central and parts of east central Kansas in a zone of
700-500mb frontogenesis in the afternoon. Slight warming aloft may
inhibit any precipitation from forming and will increase pops but
remain less than 15 percent attm.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A board upper level ridge across the west-central conus will
gradually build east across the southern plains by mid week.
Weak upper level troughs embedded in northwesterly flow aloft may
provide enough ascent when combined with weak isentropic lift at
night for isolated showers Saturday Night through Sunday night. At
this time I will only carry 10 to 14 pops due to the uncertainty on
areal coverage and timing. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. lows will be in the 60s.
It looks dry Monday through Tuesday as the upper level ridge
builds eastward into the southern plains. Highs will be in the lower
to mid 90s. lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday Night through Thursday, A series of upper level troughs will
round the upper level ridge axis across the northern and central
plains. A cold front will also push southward into eastern KS on
Wednesday and may stall out across the CWA through Thursday. The
combination of ascent ahead of the upper level troughs and surface
convergence along the surface cold front will provide the CWA with
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will gradually cool
into the mid 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Will continue VFR through the period with light SE winds. Stray
showers continue overnight and a slightly better chance for
isolated thunder tomorrow afternoon leads to VCTS in all TAF
sites.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT BROUGHT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS TO
THE U.P. LAST EVNG HAS PASSED TO THE E NOW...GIVING WAY TO A SHRTWV
RDG STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO THRU NRN MN. THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST
IN AIRMASSES OVER THE UPR LKS WITH 00Z RAOB FM GRB SHOWING PWAT UP
TO 1.07 INCH AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES/KINX 31 WHICH SUPPORTED
LAST EVNG`S CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z INL RAOB
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE...
WITH PWAT 0.47 INCH AND KINX 1. CLDS AND EVEN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHRTWV ARE STILL OVER ERN UPR MI...BUT
SKIES ARE NOW MOCLR OVER THE W AND THRU NRN MN AS THE DRIER AIR/DNVA
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV RDG ARE DOMINATING. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT SOME
OF THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SHRTWV RDG...THERE IS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR LK WINNIPEG DROPPING SEWD ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS/TS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
SHOWER/TS CHCS TNGT AS DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG APRCHS.
TODAY...SHRTWV RDG AXIS/ACCOMPANYING MID LVL DRY AIR IS FCST TO
DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS TDAY. DESPITE THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...A FEW OF THE MODELS PERSIST IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS PCPN SEEMS
RELATED TO SOME RELATIVELY WEAK H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT IS FCST TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTN AS THE H85 FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE WSW FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. BUT GIVEN THE MID LVL
INVRN/DRY AIR IN THE FCST SDNGS THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSVD
INL RAOB...OPTED TO KEEP UPR MI DRY AND JUST FCST SOME INCRSG HI
BASED CU/AC ACCOMPANYING THE MARGINAL MSTR RETURN. FCST H85 TEMPS UP
TO 14C OVER THE W BY 00Z AND MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE INL RAOB
WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS REACHING THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W. THIS
DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS ARND 50...
DROPPING MIN RH TO AS LO AS ARND 30 PCT. BUT LGT WINDS WL RESTRICT
ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG TRACKS ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...
COMMA TAIL FEATURE/AXIS OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME MID LVL MOISTER
AIR IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS UPR MI. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING IS
FCST TO REMAIN TO THE N IN ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK... THE
INFLUX OF H85 THETA E IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS RATHER
WEAK/SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ZERO TO -1C AND THESE DYNAMICS WL BE
ARRIVING DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE ONLY SOME
SCT SHOWERS MAINLY LATE OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS AND
WL NEED LTL MODIFICATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SUNDAY...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. BY 18Z/03. THE ADDED LIFT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PAINTING AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
HIGHER VALUES SOUTH CENTRAL. ROUGHLY 300-400 J/KG IS SHOWN IN THE
-10C TO -30C HAIL GROWTH LAYER. THE INSTABILITY MIGHT HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE BETTER BUT THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
UP UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 500MB
HEIGHTS/VORTICITY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS OVERALL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS. OVERALL WIND
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGHOUT AND STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z/04 AND INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN OR NEARLY STALL OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MAY TRY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG WITH
VORTICITY...HOWEVER...THE LINGERING DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.
ALOFT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY ALONG TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS/EC HAVE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW GREAT LAKES. MODEL DIFFER ON EXACT
TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN BY 12Z/08...WHILE THE EC HAVING MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONSENSUS...BUT TEND TO FAVOR THE EC A BIT MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN TAF SITES TOWARD SAT EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR OVER THE CHILLY
LAKE WATERS INTO MON...NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT BROUGHT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS TO
THE U.P. LAST EVNG HAS PASSED TO THE E NOW...GIVING WAY TO A SHRTWV
RDG STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO THRU NRN MN. THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST
IN AIRMASSES OVER THE UPR LKS WITH 00Z RAOB FM GRB SHOWING PWAT UP
TO 1.07 INCH AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES/KINX 31 WHICH SUPPORTED
LAST EVNG`S CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z INL RAOB
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE...
WITH PWAT 0.47 INCH AND KINX 1. CLDS AND EVEN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHRTWV ARE STILL OVER ERN UPR MI...BUT
SKIES ARE NOW MOCLR OVER THE W AND THRU NRN MN AS THE DRIER AIR/DNVA
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV RDG ARE DOMINATING. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT SOME
OF THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SHRTWV RDG...THERE IS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR LK WINNIPEG DROPPING SEWD ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS/TS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
SHOWER/TS CHCS TNGT AS DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG APRCHS.
TODAY...SHRTWV RDG AXIS/ACCOMPANYING MID LVL DRY AIR IS FCST TO
DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS TDAY. DESPITE THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...A FEW OF THE MODELS PERSIST IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS PCPN SEEMS
RELATED TO SOME RELATIVELY WEAK H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT IS FCST TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTN AS THE H85 FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE WSW FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. BUT GIVEN THE MID LVL
INVRN/DRY AIR IN THE FCST SDNGS THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSVD
INL RAOB...OPTED TO KEEP UPR MI DRY AND JUST FCST SOME INCRSG HI
BASED CU/AC ACCOMPANYING THE MARGINAL MSTR RETURN. FCST H85 TEMPS UP
TO 14C OVER THE W BY 00Z AND MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE INL RAOB
WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS REACHING THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W. THIS
DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS ARND 50...
DROPPING MIN RH TO AS LO AS ARND 30 PCT. BUT LGT WINDS WL RESTRICT
ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG TRACKS ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...
COMMA TAIL FEATURE/AXIS OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME MID LVL MOISTER
AIR IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS UPR MI. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING IS
FCST TO REMAIN TO THE N IN ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK... THE
INFLUX OF H85 THETA E IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS RATHER
WEAK/SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ZERO TO -1C AND THESE DYNAMICS WL BE
ARRIVING DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE ONLY SOME
SCT SHOWERS MAINLY LATE OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS AND
WL NEED LTL MODIFICATION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A RIDGE ANCHORED FIRMLY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PUTS UPPER MICHIGAN IN SOMEWHAT ZONAL
FLOW BEFORE A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS/NAM ARE STILL PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. SHOULD THE FRONT COME IN
EARLIER AS THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 9Z. SHOULD THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION BE
CORRECT...TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY LATER FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY
AROUND 12Z-15Z. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR POPS TO RESOLVE THE
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW...THOUGH I LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF/GEM.
AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
THE BEST INSTABILITY...AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...LINGERS ALONG THE WI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA SEES
AROUND 500 J/KG. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
EAST...LESS THAN 100 J/KG....BUT THE GFS BRINGS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG INTO THE INLAND EAST...AND GENERATES
CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP SCHC THUNDER IN
THAT AREA FOR NOW GIVEN THE DISCREPENCY. AS FAR AS SHEAR
GOES...0-6KM FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS...SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IF THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH WHEN THE BEST INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY ENDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THE PASSING FRONT...AGAIN
GOING WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR POPS GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS AND THE ECMWF/GEM.
MONDAY THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE WILL EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN CWA...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FORCING ITS WAY INTO UPPER MI. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA THAT DRAPES A WARM FRONT
ACROSS WI AND IOWA. MODEL DIFFERENCES AGAIN BRING COMPLICATION TO
THE FORECAST...WITH THE GFS/GEM HAVING STRONGER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT KEEPS THE LOW/WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AND ALL
PRECIPITATION ONLY UP TO THE WI BORDER. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH...AND GENERATES CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MI. WILL KEEP GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CONSENSUS
FORECAST NEAR THE WI BORDER/SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. FOR NOW.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR
TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AT UPPER LEVELS
THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS AND KEEPS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. THIS
WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...EXPECT A DRY
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WEDNESDAY MORNING DIGS DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT
EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN FOR THURSDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS ONCE AGAIN DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVES IT INTO ONTARIO...AND THE ECMWF DEVELOPS IT OVER
IOWA AND MOVES IT INTO WISCONSIN. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS POPS YET
AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE LARGE DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN TAF SITES TOWARD SAT EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR OVER THE CHILLY
LAKE WATERS INTO MON...NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLOODING AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PLAGUE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
AIRMASS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRY OUT DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
A COUPLE OF NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT NOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST...THE
COOL WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY. I HAVE SHAVED A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST LOW TEMPS AT DARLINGTON...
FLORENCE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON AS THIS COOLER AIR SLIPS
SOUTHWARD. ALSO...SYNOPTIC MODELS AND THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPING MASS OF MARINE CONVECTION SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD MOVE TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 70-80 PERCENT IN
THIS AREA...WHILE TRIMMING THEM BACK INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION WHERE THE LIGHTER SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON RADAR MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MADE PRETTY GOOD INLAND PROGRESS
EARLIER TODAY...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM LUMBERTON
DOWN THROUGH FLORENCE. THE BOUNDARY IS STALLING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL IT COULD REACH MYRTLE BEACH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS LED TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS FROM BLADEN COUNTY THROUGH MARION...FLORENCE TO
NEAR ORANGEBURG SC. AN EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE FRONT AND A COLLOCATED DEEP
MOISTURE CHANNEL EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COAST LATE.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE FAIRLY MINOR...WITH TWEAKS TO WIND
DIRECTIONS AND HOURLY POPS/WX MOST SIGNIFICANT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
TROUGH REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COAST WHILE DEEP GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES. THIS
COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...CAPE IS 1000-1500 J/KG...HAS
BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BRING
ABOUT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE MID LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
HELD ONTO LIKELY POP ALONG THE COAST ALL NIGHT BUT DROP INLAND AREAS
TO HIGH CHANCE AROUND MID NIGHT. MID LEVEL PATTERN AND LACK OF
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN TX SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST QPF SHOULD BE FOUND.
CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL KEEP
LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CLIMO...AROUND 70. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MODEST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF SUNDAY
EVENING. THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MOISTURE REMAINS COPIOUS WITH PWAT
VALUES 2.00-2.2 INCHES. WHAT MAY BE LACKING HOWEVER IS DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT. BEST PVA APPEARS OVER BY 18Z AND THE UPPER RIGHT
ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE ON THE WANE. MODEL GUIDANCE QPF NOW LOOKING MORE
LACKLUSTER. THERE IS LITTLE VALUE IN MAKING CHANGES TO THE WATCH AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED AND ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD SATURDAY TURN OUT WET AS ANTICIPATED THEN BY
SUNDAY EVEN MINOR RAIN AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES WITH
THE SATURATED SOILS. DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST SOME ON MONDAY
AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY DO THE SAME. FOR NOW HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE LARGE WAVE SHOWN IN THE WRF. THE MODEL IS SEEMING
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERTHA...AND ALLOWING FOR THE FORMER TO BECOME THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT LINGER NEVERTHELESS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST
AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN STILL BE MADE OUT NEAR THE COAST ON
SURFACE PROGS. DAYTIME HIGHS VERY SUPPRESSED AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT
SHOW SOME RECOVERY TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS TO OUR
WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASINGLY WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING INSTEAD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER YIELDING A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH
THROUGH BUT IT IS TOUGH TO TELL THIS FAR OUT IF IT HAS ANY REAL
EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER GOMEX
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK/TYPICAL SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BRING
FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT RAIN IS WINDING DOWN NEAR KFLO/KLBT. CIGS ARE IFR
AT THOSE TERMINALS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 14-15Z...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS BY 08Z. CONVECTION IS INCREASING
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST
OFFSHORE MYR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KFLO/KLBT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ATTM WILL SWING THE FRONT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EXCEPT KILM
TOWARDS SUNRISE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
AT KFLO/KLBT.
LIFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. SHRA/TSRA RE-DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR VCTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WIND AND SEA FORECASTS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD LAND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND THROUGH ELIZABETHTOWN
AND WHITEVILLE WITH SOUTH WINDS REPORTED AT ALL WEATHER OBS STATIONS
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MAY REVERSE COURSE
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BACK DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. MY LATEST FORECAST
BRINGS IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MYRTLE BEACH AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AWFULLY "BAGGY" IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG NORTH CAROLINA COAST MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3 FEET AT THE SUNSET BEACH BUOY...AND JUST
UNDER 4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY AND OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY...NECESSITATING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE
FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROUGH STALLED NEAR THE COAST KEEPS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING VERY NEAR THE COAST. THE
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ESPECIALLY COME MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS EVEN MORE.
THERE IS A MODEL SOLUTION THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DISCOUNTED AS
ERRONEOUS...IT GENERATES A STRENGTHENING LOW THAT MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD IMPLY A TURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. THIS WILL ONLY
OCCUR IF THE UPPER LOW NOW IN THE BAHAMAS GENERATES A SURFACE LOW
THAT ENDS UP DOMINATING THE WIND FIELDS OVER TROPICAL SYSTEM
BERTHA...WHICH WILL BE PASSING EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE
A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
FOR THE WELL OFFSHORE BERTHA TO KEEP ITS IDENTITY. ANY SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERTHA MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH...AND IT
ISN`T GOING TO BE A VERY CLOSE ONE...ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD RETAIN
THEIR SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BUT MAY VARY FROM SW TO SE. A LITTLE SWELL
ENERGY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS...BUT
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. FOR NOW IT
SEEMS WE MAY AVOID ANY HEADLINES. BACK TO CLIMO NORMS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ONLY WEAKLY EXERTING INFLUENCE
LOCALLY FOR A LIGHT SW FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
131 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLOODING AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PLAGUE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
AIRMASS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRY OUT DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
A COUPLE OF NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT NOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST...THE
COOL WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY. I HAVE SHAVED A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST LOW TEMPS AT DARLINGTON...
FLORENCE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON AS THIS COOLER AIR SLIPS
SOUTHWARD. ALSO...SYNOPTIC MODELS AND THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPING MASS OF MARINE CONVECTION SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD MOVE TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 70-80 PERCENT IN
THIS AREA...WHILE TRIMMING THEM BACK INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION WHERE THE LIGHTER SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON RADAR MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MADE PRETTY GOOD INLAND PROGRESS
EARLIER TODAY...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM LUMBERTON
DOWN THROUGH FLORENCE. THE BOUNDARY IS STALLING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL IT COULD REACH MYRTLE BEACH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS LED TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS FROM BLADEN COUNTY THROUGH MARION...FLORENCE TO
NEAR ORANGEBURG SC. AN EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE FRONT AND A COLLOCATED DEEP
MOISTURE CHANNEL EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COAST LATE.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE FAIRLY MINOR...WITH TWEAKS TO WIND
DIRECTIONS AND HOURLY POPS/WX MOST SIGNIFICANT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
TROUGH REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COAST WHILE DEEP GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES. THIS
COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...CAPE IS 1000-1500 J/KG...HAS
BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BRING
ABOUT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE MID LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
HELD ONTO LIKELY POP ALONG THE COAST ALL NIGHT BUT DROP INLAND AREAS
TO HIGH CHANCE AROUND MID NIGHT. MID LEVEL PATTERN AND LACK OF
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN TX SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST QPF SHOULD BE FOUND.
CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL KEEP
LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CLIMO...AROUND 70. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MODEST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS PERIOD. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROUGH
WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE INLAND...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE. AN EXTREMELY DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE
ALONG WITH A MOIST COLUMN THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR A LARGE SCALE...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT. WE ARE EXPECTING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 4 AND 5 INCHES ALONG COASTAL CAPE
FEAR. HOWEVER...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND GIVEN THE GROUND
IS WET FROM A VERY WET JULY...WE FEEL THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH.
THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERED THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY-AUGUST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MAINTAIN NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
BOTH DAYS...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED AMPLE
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MODELS INDICATE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUD COVER
MONDAY...BUT LESS SO TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST AND ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN
BY MIDWEEK...SO ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE INCLUDED EACH DAY...TREND
WILL BE DOWNWARD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY...SO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS
WILL BE WARRANTED THOSE DAYS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT RAIN IS WINDING DOWN NEAR KFLO/KLBT. CIGS ARE IFR
AT THOSE TERMINALS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 14-15Z...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS BY 08Z. CONVECTION IS INCREASING
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST
OFFSHORE MYR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KFLO/KLBT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ATTM WILL SWING THE FRONT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EXCEPT KILM
TOWARDS SUNRISE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
AT KFLO/KLBT.
LIFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. SHRA/TSRA RE-DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR VCTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WIND AND SEA FORECASTS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD LAND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND THROUGH ELIZABETHTOWN
AND WHITEVILLE WITH SOUTH WINDS REPORTED AT ALL WEATHER OBS STATIONS
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MAY REVERSE COURSE
OVERNIGHT AND DROP BACK DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. MY LATEST FORECAST
BRINGS IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MYRTLE BEACH AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AWFULLY "BAGGY" IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG NORTH CAROLINA COAST MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3 FEET AT THE SUNSET BEACH BUOY...AND JUST
UNDER 4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY AND OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY...NECESSITATING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE
FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROUGH STALLED NEAR THE COAST KEEPS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE EXPECT THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA
OR JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY WHILE WINDS ON THE
EAST SIDE WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE WIND
DIRECTION ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM A S OR SE
DIRECTION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
FROM EXCEEDING 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT WITH PERHAPS
SOME 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. A STILL RATHER WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION
DURING THIS TIME AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COAST. A 3 TO PERHAPS 4 FOOT SWELL WITH 11 SECOND PERIOD WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY FROM BERTHA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AT
THAT TIME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO SLOWLY ERODE INTO SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING ALONG THIS RESIDUAL FRONT WILL BRING ADDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VERY MINOR UPDATE FOR POPS GIVEN MOST OF RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN LATEST HRRR EVEN DRIER OVERNIGHT. SOME
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES SO NEEDED TO PULL MINS DOWN IN SOME LOCATIONS ANOTHER
NOTCH. SPREAD SOME OF THE FOG/DRIZZLE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SPOTS AND MADE SURE ENTIRE BLUE RIDGE WAS INCLUDED.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WANE AS THE UPPER WAVE IS NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STEADIER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...LEAVING ONLY VERY LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST.
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP WATER VALUES AND
THERE IS STILL A GOOD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT SEEN IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND VWP FROM THE RADAR...SO CANNOT RULE OUT VERY
SHALLOW UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE HARD TO
DETECT ON RADAR. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE EASTERLY COMPONENT AT THE RIDGE
TOP LEVEL LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO SOUNDING FCSTS...BUT THINK LOW
LEVEL WEDGE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG AND SO WORTH KEEPING MENTION
OF DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG ALL NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE HANDLING THINGS
PRETTY WELL NOW AND SHOW ONLY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHWRS
HERE AND THERE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF FCST AREA...HAVE GENERALLY
LOWERED POPS EVEN MORE FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT TO LOW TO MID CHC
BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...AND NOTHING OR JUST SLIGHT CHC WEST.
OTHER CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT GIVEN FACT THAT CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS WERE ALREADY
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FCST MINS...ALTHOUGH DON`T THINK IN MOST
CASES CURRENT TEMPS WILL DROP MORE THAN A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
WHAT THEY ARE NOW...IF ANYTHING.
PRELIM LOOK AT TOMORROW SUGGESTS WEDGE WILL TRY TO BREAK DURING
THE DAY...BUT MAY HOLD ON AS LONG AS POSSIBLE OVER NRV AND PARTS
OF PIEDMONT...WHILE BREAKING EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE BREAKING WEDGE...AND THINK BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THESE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
WERE SUN IS OUT THE LONGEST. WARMER AT BLF LIKELY AGAIN COMPARED
TO LYH. NO CHANGES IN THAT PERIOD YET THOUGH AS WE AWAIT MORE
GUIDANCE FROM OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 614 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAIN LIFT WITH UPPER WAVE THAT IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WRN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT AREAS AND WHAT UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EXISTS THIS
EVENING IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE
RADAR NOW SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY LATE
EVENING WHILE THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE EAST QUICKLY
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HARD TO SEE ANY REASONING FOR MUCH OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE CWA AND THE
WEDGE GIVEN THAT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST SOON. THUS AM
LOWERING POPS FOR MOST OF THE WEST TO SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME LOW CHC
REMAINING UP ACROSS GREENBRIER IN CASE ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION
FARTHER NORTH BACKBUILDS...AND GRADUALLY LOWER THE LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL FAR EAST FOR JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF TO MID CHC...AND WILL DETERMINE
LATE IF WE NEED TO DROP THAT EVEN MORE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
WHEN THIS UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED OFF...LEAVING WEAKENING UPSLOPE
ALONG BLUE RIDGE AS 850 FLOW TURNS MORE SW BEHIND IT. DON`T THINK
THIS SW FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...SO
AM KEEPING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN ALL NIGHT. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ON WESTERN FRINGE WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE...BUT
THIS MAY FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
ALSO PULLED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE HWO AS THERE ARE
NOT ANY EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE EVEN
MINOR ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING STREETS IN THE
EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...
TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA HELPED GENERATE THE LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING. THE SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS
APPROACHING SOUTH CAROLINA AND WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...20-25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 MB WINDS
TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 850 MB AS THE WEDGE AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ON
SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE CAROLINA WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAD THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS WHERE THE WEDGE IS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN WEDGE ERODES.
EXPECTING TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PROGRESSION...WITH
LYNCHBURG AND THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
LAST TO BREAK OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE AXIS OF THE
ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD MOISTURE
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION. THE INTERPLAY OF
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...THERE WILL BE
A CHANGE IN JUST HOW THIS FEATURE IS MATERIALIZED. THROUGH ROUGHLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THE FEATURE WILL BE THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. THIS LOW HOWEVER WILL SHIFT EAST BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THIS MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO FADE
IN INTENSITY ONLY BRIEFLY. BY SUNDAY...THE REMNANT OF THIS FIRST
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRENGTHENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FROM THE
WEST. DESPITE THIS FLUCTUATION...THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL BE AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
THE TIME PERIOD WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST
IS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF
BROADENING THE WIDTH OF THE TROUGH...AND SHIFTING THE AXIS A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE RESULT OF LIKEWISE
SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER WEST VIRGINIA WHILE
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TS BERTHA OR
WHAT IS REMAINING OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AND PARTIALLY STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE PWATS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING AND TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. FOCUS
OF THE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY NORTH
OF ROUTE 460.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. 850MB
TEMPS OF +15-17C WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP NIGHT TIME TEMPS UP A
BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MOST MEASURABLE -RA HAS EXITED THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODIC
BURSTS OF DRIZZLE AROUND MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS PERSIST. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ADDING TO
SPOTTY -DZ DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG FROM KBCB
AND POINTS EASTWARD. MORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
EDGE OF THE WEDGE AROUND KBLF WHERE WILL BE GOING IN AND OUT OF
MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LESS DZ OR FOG. KLWB MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH CLOUDS TO DELAY FOG FORMATION UNTIL BETTER CLEARING
DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT STILL EXPECTING LIFR IN
FOG/STRATUS THERE BEFORE DAWN. THUS HAVE TWEAKED DOWN CIGS IN THE
EAST AND BUMPED UP CIGS/VSBYS TO INIT ACROSS SE WVA THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH
LIKELY VFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SPOTS CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...KROA AND
KLYH MAY BE SLOWER TO SEE LOWER CIGS ERODE UNDER THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE SO HELD IFR THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 15Z/11AM SAT BUT MAY STAY MVFR IN FOG AT KROA
AND KLYH A BIT LONGER. WINDS...MOSTLY NE- SE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-8KTS...EXCEPT ACROSS SE WEST VA...WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE IN THE MORNING LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT SE TO
SW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS STABLE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHRA MENTION
IN THE EAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AT MOST WHILE HEATING ON THE
PERIMETER OF THE COOL POOL COULD CAUSE SOME SCATTERING OF TSRA
MAINLY KBLF AND POINTS SOUTH/WEST BY LATE SAT. THIS SUPPORTED BY
SEVERAL MODELS BUT LOOKS QUITE ISOLATED SO ONLY INCLUDING A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF AND VCSH AT KLWB LATE. WEDGE MAY SPILL BACK TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A WHILE INTO SAT EVENING BEFORE TRAJECTORIES
TURN MORE NW BEHIND A WAVE EXITING TO THE NE SAT NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CIGS SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ONLY THE
EASTERN LOCATIONS HOLDING ONTO MORE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHRA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF THE REGION WITH TIME. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION MAY LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
SHRA/TSRA BY SUN- MON BUT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST SO APPEARS
WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE WEAK AT BEST. MAINLY
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL REMAIN
A PROBLEM EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE USUAL SITES...SUCH AS
LWB...BCB...AND LYH.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
THE REGION...MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/SK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1114 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. STILL EXPECT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO TREK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED THE RISK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO LINE
UP WITH DEVELOPING TOWERING CU SEEN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY...IN ADDITION
TO THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MINIMAL CAPE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THO...SO NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
BECOME STRONG NOR WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE MID LEVELS LOOKING OVERALL LESS
ENERGETIC THAN TODAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT ANTICIPATED...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT COVERAGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS...SO CONFINED CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 14C.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS FOR INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...MODELS SHOW POOR CONSISTENCY AND ARE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS AND GEM...WITH THE GEM ALSO
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS IS MAKING POP AND WEATHER FORECASTS
DIFFICULT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF WHICH DAYS HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTBREAKS. THEREFORE...KEPT POP NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS NEARLY EVERYDAY HOWEVER. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING IN SOME FORM. WEAK WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH A SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S...WHICH
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE. KEPT TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS DUE TO AN OBSERVED WARM BIAS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH 30 PERCENTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALSO ALONG
THE PINE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY CORRIDOR WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOVE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE WAVE HAS STAYED MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
INTO THE EARLY PM.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL 5KM WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SOME ISOLD
TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. CONTINUED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 200-800 J/KG OVER THE SRN
DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHOUGH
MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS TO LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SRN ZONES.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY DARK...AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
STRAY SHOWER AT SOME POINT SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF MAIN FEATURES...GREATER COVERAGE WILL IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STARTING TO DAMPEN OUT A BIT...AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED SO JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...WITH
SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SO AT THIS TIME IT DOES
APPEAR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. AGAIN
SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
RESULTING IN MARGINALLY COOLER MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING STILL WEST OF THE REGION BUT THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BUT COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME COOLING AND DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS
TO A POSSIBLE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY BUT LOTS OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CLEAR SIGNAL FAR IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY BUILDING NORTH AND JUST
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING KPOU. VFR CEILINGS OCCURRING AT KPOU...BUT
A MVFR/IFR LAYER OF CLOUDS IS TRYING TO FORM AROUND KPOU SO GOING
SCATTERED SINCE THE RAIN IS NOT BUILDING NORTH VERY MUCH. THERE ARE
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING TOWARD KALB AND KPSF SO PUTTING VCSH
ALL MORNING BUT AGAIN...MAINLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IF A
SHOWER DOES AFFECT KALB OR KPSF...IT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT KPSF. THE IFR CEILING AT
KPSF SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND REMAIN MAINLY MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER ABOUT 13Z...ALL VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
P6SM.
THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE CONFLICTS IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AS TO
SOME POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...AS ONE SET OF GUIDANCE JUST HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. AGAIN...JUST INDICATING VFR WITH VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT
UNTIL WEATHER EVOLUTION MORE APPARENT IN DATA AND GUIDANCE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTH AT 10 KT
OR LESS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 50
AND 60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MIN RH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BE AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ASSOCIATED
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
759 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. RAIN CONTINUES TO ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DELMARVA AND
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH RES MODELS AND LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH MID OR LATE
MORNING FOR DUTCHESS...LITCHFIELD AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DROP CONSIDERABLY NORTH AND WEST OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOMEWHAT
DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL 5KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATING A SMATTERING OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH TERRAIN PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHOUGH MANY
AREAS WILL STILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY DARK...AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
STRAY SHOWER AT SOME POINT SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF MAIN FEATURES...GREATER COVERAGE WILL IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STARTING TO DAMPEN OUT A BIT...AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED SO JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...WITH
SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SO AT THIS TIME IT DOES
APPEAR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. AGAIN
SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
RESULTING IN MARGINALLY COOLER MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING STILL WEST OF THE REGION BUT THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BUT COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME COOLING AND DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS
TO A POSSIBLE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY BUT LOTS OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CLEAR SIGNAL FAR IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY BUILDING NORTH AND JUST
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING KPOU. VFR CEILINGS OCCURRING AT KPOU...BUT
A MVFR/IFR LAYER OF CLOUDS IS TRYING TO FORM AROUND KPOU SO GOING
SCATTERED SINCE THE RAIN IS NOT BUILDING NORTH VERY MUCH. THERE ARE
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING TOWARD KALB AND KPSF SO PUTTING VCSH
ALL MORNING BUT AGAIN...MAINLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IF A
SHOWER DOES AFFECT KALB OR KPSF...IT WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT KPSF. THE IFR CEILING AT
KPSF SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND REMAIN MAINLY MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER ABOUT 13Z...ALL VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
P6SM.
THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE CONFLICTS IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AS TO
SOME POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...AS ONE SET OF GUIDANCE JUST HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. AGAIN...JUST INDICATING VFR WITH VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT
UNTIL WEATHER EVOLUTION MORE APPARENT IN DATA AND GUIDANCE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTH AT 10 KT
OR LESS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 50
AND 60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MIN RH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BE AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ASSOCIATED
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/TAW
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. RAIN CONTINUES TO ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DELMARVA AND
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH RES MODELS AND LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH MID OR LATE
MORNING FOR DUTCHESS...LITCHFIELD AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DROP CONSIDERABLY NORTH AND WEST OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOMEWHAT
DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL 5KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATING A SMATTERING OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH TERRAIN PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHOUGH MANY
AREAS WILL STILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY DARK...AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
STRAY SHOWER AT SOME POINT SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF MAIN FEATURES...GREATER COVERAGE WILL IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STARTING TO DAMPEN OUT A BIT...AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED SO JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
ON MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...WITH
SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SO AT THIS TIME IT DOES
APPEAR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. AGAIN
SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
RESULTING IN MARGINALLY COOLER MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING STILL WEST OF THE REGION BUT THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BUT COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME COOLING AND DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS
TO A POSSIBLE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY BUT LOTS OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CLEAR SIGNAL FAR IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY BUILDING NORTH AND AFTER
SUNRISE SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD AFFECT KPOU. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT KPSF AND KPOU...WITH SOME
MVFR FOG AT KPOU. AFTER ABOUT 13Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE
VFR EXCEPT KPOU WHERE MVFR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z AND KPSF WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS
COULD HANG ON UNTIL AROUND 17Z.
SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
CONFLICTS IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AS TO SOME POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
RAIN DEVELOPING TOMORROW EVENING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...AS
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE JUST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AGAIN...JUST INDICATING VFR WITH
VCSH TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL WEATHER EVOLUTION MORE APPARENT IN
DATA AND GUIDANCE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTH AT 10 KT
OR LESS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 50
AND 60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MIN RH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BE AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ASSOCIATED
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT BROUGHT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS TO
THE U.P. LAST EVNG HAS PASSED TO THE E NOW...GIVING WAY TO A SHRTWV
RDG STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO THRU NRN MN. THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST
IN AIRMASSES OVER THE UPR LKS WITH 00Z RAOB FM GRB SHOWING PWAT UP
TO 1.07 INCH AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES/KINX 31 WHICH SUPPORTED
LAST EVNG`S CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z INL RAOB
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE...
WITH PWAT 0.47 INCH AND KINX 1. CLDS AND EVEN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHRTWV ARE STILL OVER ERN UPR MI...BUT
SKIES ARE NOW MOCLR OVER THE W AND THRU NRN MN AS THE DRIER AIR/DNVA
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV RDG ARE DOMINATING. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT SOME
OF THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SHRTWV RDG...THERE IS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR LK WINNIPEG DROPPING SEWD ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS/TS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
SHOWER/TS CHCS TNGT AS DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG APRCHS.
TODAY...SHRTWV RDG AXIS/ACCOMPANYING MID LVL DRY AIR IS FCST TO
DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS TDAY. DESPITE THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...A FEW OF THE MODELS PERSIST IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS PCPN SEEMS
RELATED TO SOME RELATIVELY WEAK H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT IS FCST TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTN AS THE H85 FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE WSW FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. BUT GIVEN THE MID LVL
INVRN/DRY AIR IN THE FCST SDNGS THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSVD
INL RAOB...OPTED TO KEEP UPR MI DRY AND JUST FCST SOME INCRSG HI
BASED CU/AC ACCOMPANYING THE MARGINAL MSTR RETURN. FCST H85 TEMPS UP
TO 14C OVER THE W BY 00Z AND MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE INL RAOB
WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS REACHING THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W. THIS
DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS ARND 50...
DROPPING MIN RH TO AS LO AS ARND 30 PCT. BUT LGT WINDS WL RESTRICT
ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG TRACKS ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...
COMMA TAIL FEATURE/AXIS OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME MID LVL MOISTER
AIR IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS UPR MI. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING IS
FCST TO REMAIN TO THE N IN ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK... THE
INFLUX OF H85 THETA E IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS RATHER
WEAK/SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ZERO TO -1C AND THESE DYNAMICS WL BE
ARRIVING DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE ONLY SOME
SCT SHOWERS MAINLY LATE OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS AND
WL NEED LTL MODIFICATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SUNDAY...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. BY 18Z/03. THE ADDED LIFT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PAINTING AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
HIGHER VALUES SOUTH CENTRAL. ROUGHLY 300-400 J/KG IS SHOWN IN THE
-10C TO -30C HAIL GROWTH LAYER. THE INSTABILITY MIGHT HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE BETTER BUT THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
UP UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 500MB
HEIGHTS/VORTICITY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS OVERALL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS. OVERALL WIND
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGHOUT AND STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z/04 AND INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN OR NEARLY STALL OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MAY TRY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG WITH
VORTICITY...HOWEVER...THE LINGERING DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.
ALOFT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY ALONG TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS/EC HAVE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW GREAT LAKES. MODEL DIFFER ON EXACT
TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN BY 12Z/08...WHILE THE EC HAVING MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONSENSUS...BUT TEND TO FAVOR THE EC A BIT MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
DRY HI PRES MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT
WINDS TO THE TAF SITES TDAY. ALTHOUGH MID CLDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APRCHG DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT WL ARRIVE TNGT...THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF SOME
-SHRA ALSO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND IWD AFT 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR OVER THE CHILLY
LAKE WATERS INTO MON...NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
928 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF DAY TO OUR WEST OVER MOST OF
OHIO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH IS ALIGNED FROM LAKE
HURON SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING. THE 5H TROF AXIS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...AND BE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z SUN.
MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX AND UPPER FORCING FROM 2 SHORTWAVE TROFS
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA WILL
INCREASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 00Z 4KM
SPC WRF AND LATEST HRRR CONSOLIDATING THIS ACTIVITY ALONG OR JUST
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PA.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED. FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM 1.4" TO 1.6" WILL PROMOTE SOME DECENT
DOWNPOURS...AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NEGLIGIBLE...WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY (RADAR ESTIMATES EXCEEDED
3 INCHES AROUND PINE GROVE FURNACE IN SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY...AND OVER 2.5 INCHES NORTH OF LINGLESTOWN IN DAUPHIN
COUNTY). HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ISOLATED...HOWEVER...SO NO WATCHES
BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO PA AND REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
LIMITING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AGAIN
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
/AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY
CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN
AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/. HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE
TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE
A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
QUIET RADAR SCOPE AT 12Z...WITH GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS IN MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FROM KUNV-KIPT.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z.
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AS A 4000FT DECK DEVELOPS. HRRR INDICATES
SHOWERS MAY FIRST INITIATE AROUND KIPT...BUT AS DAY WEARS ON
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. WITH HIT
AND MISS VARIETY CONVECTION...HELD ON TO VCSH AFTER 18Z IN MOST
TERMINALS...WITH UPDATES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST IF RESTRICTIONS
BECOME MORE IMMINENT AT TERMINALS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
THICKER FOG EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
806 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECREASED POPS FOR SE ZONES AS RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN
WILL MISS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THIS AREA...BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS STILL W OF CWA AND REGION IN SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WEEK...LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO PA AND REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
LIMITING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AGAIN
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
/AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY
CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN
AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/. HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE
TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE
A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
QUIET RADAR SCOPE AT 12Z...WITH GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS IN MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FROM KUNV-KIPT.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z.
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AS A 4000FT DECK DEVELOPS. HRRR INDICATES
SHOWERS MAY FIRST INITIATE AROUND KIPT...BUT AS DAY WEARS ON
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. WITH HIT
AND MISS VARIETY CONVECTION...HELD ON TO VCSH AFTER 18Z IN MOST
TERMINALS...WITH UPDATES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST IF RESTRICTIONS
BECOME MORE IMMINENT AT TERMINALS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
THICKER FOG EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1025 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE 12Z OHX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRY AIR ABOVE 650 MB.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A NUDGE DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CLOUD
COVER...AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1025 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING STARTING TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. WILL SEE (AND ALREADY ARE SEEING) SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER INTO THE CWFA. STILL SOME
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE RIO GRANDE (ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK).
THUS...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS AND ONLY
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING. CURRENT HRRR DATA SHOWS NO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS KIND OF LINES UP
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES SENT...UPDATED MOST GRID PARAMETERS
THROUGH 06Z. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS-
IS...SINCE WOULD LIKE TO LOOK AT MORE NEW DATA SINCE SUBTLE
CHANGES IN MOISTURE AND/OR POSITION OF BOUNDARY COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
(HIGHER CAPES/LITTLE TO NO CIN)...BUT ADJUTED THEM DOWN-WARD FOR
THE BAYS/NEARSHORE. NOT MUCH IN WIND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND
INCREASE QPF. UPDATES ARE SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS
FROM CRP-ALI EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
REACH LRD DURING THE LATE MORNING. VCT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT VCT WITH
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINING THREE
SITES...MVFR/VFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. MAY SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ONCE MORE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL SITES BUT
DUE TO ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN NATURE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LAPS DATA CURRENTLY HAS THE
WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA FROM COTULLA TO BEEVILLE TO PORT
LAVACA. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH NEAR 2.3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT CLOSER IN PROXIMITY...MOISTURE DEPTH
HAS INCREASED AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT LULL THIS
EVENING SHOULD OCCUR...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...REMAINING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS
AND COASTAL BEND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
DAYS PAST ALTHOUGH REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
WITH THE USUAL SUMMER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO REASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE EFFECTS OF AN UNSEASONABLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALL OF WHICH
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE PRECIPITATION LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT
HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MARINE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
VARIATIONS. GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A SMALL AMOUNT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 95 74 94 / 30 10 20 20 20
VICTORIA 91 73 95 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 93 78 99 80 100 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 90 75 97 73 97 / 30 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 77 90 78 91 / 20 10 20 20 20
COTULLA 95 75 98 76 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 91 75 96 74 95 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 85 78 90 78 91 / 30 10 20 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WITH SUBSEQUENT EASING OF 500 MILLIBAR COLD POOL ALONG WITH LACK
OF ANY LOW LEVEL TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALL POINTS TO KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTACT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS ONLY SOME VFR BASED SCT CU POTENTIAL. EXPECTING PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MOS NOT TOO EXCITED THOUGH
SREF VIS PROBS SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL IN THE FAR ERN CWA. UPPER
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN FOR SUNDAY WITH WEAK VORT MAXIMA NOTED IN THIS
RENEWED CYCLONIC FLOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. FOCUSING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. QPF PROGS SUPPORTING OUR LIKELY POPS WHILE
MOS IS SHOWING SLGT CHC/CHC.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT. THIS
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK CAP ON THE WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE CONVECTION GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. THUS WENT DRY
TODAY AND TNT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY
12Z SUN WITH PERHAPS SCT CLOUD COVER LATE TNT MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. FOR HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE WHICH CORRECTS A COOL BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS
IN THE EAST WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE ONLY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...SO COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAKERS.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN WAVES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THOUGH GIVEN GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW...INSTABILITY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVE THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...SO MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
WILL PROBABLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER WITH THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SWATH OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...JUST A QUESTION OF
WHERE THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
PERIOD. COULD FINALLY SEE SOME WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
LATER IN THE WEEK IF THE FARTHER NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR MODELS TO JUMP AROUND SOME
MORE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS. HOWEVER KMSN WILL HAVE VSBYS RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES WHILE KUES
AND KENW MAY HAVE VSBYS DROP TO 3-5 MILES FROM 10-12Z. OTHERWISE MO
CLEAR SKIES OVER FAR ERN WI TODAY AND TNT WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-
6 KFT FOR KMSN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TNT. LIGHT FOG MAY THEN OCCUR
AGAIN AT KENW AND KUES EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE AIRMASS IS DRY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE A HALF INCH OR LESS. STILL COULD SEE A
FEW WEAK STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
GREATER.
SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG BASED ON THE RAP AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE JUST LESS THAN INCH. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THAT THE HRRR/HIRES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE LOW POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 03Z. IF ANY STORMS FORM...EXPECT
THEM TO BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.
ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OFF...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY...SO EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS...SCATTERED AT
BEST. SMALL HAIL...BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVER THE PLAINS...AIRMASS WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE. WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AND LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
STORMS ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND OVER WYOMING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
STATE. SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS STARTING MONDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS COLORAODO.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES DUE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF
INDIVIDUAL STORMS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE THE PLAINS SEE A LITTLE BIT
DRIER WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE DENVER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z. LIGHT WINDS DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS...ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS REMNANTS OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A
FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. A WAVE MOVED ALONG THE
TROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED PRODUCE THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE PRESENTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE NAM OFFERING GENEROUS QPF
AND HIGH POPS EVERYWHERE...WHILE THE GFS IS LIGHTER WITH THE QPF AND
LESSER WITH THE POPS (MOSTLY CHC). THE EC IS SHOWING COVERAGE LIKE
THE NAM AND HIGHER QPF MORE LIKE THE GFS (CLOSER TO THE COAST). WE
HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH HIGH POPS
(CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) FOR MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST. THE ONSET OF THE HIGHER POPS WERE SLOWED A
BIT BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS NW OF PHL AS SOME BREAKS
ARE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
MOSTLY MAV/MET MIX WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S S/E AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S N/W.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY MAY WELL END UP BEING LIKE SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SHORE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL BE DIMINISHING...MAY STILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS N/W
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE HIGHER POPS EARLY THEN DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THRU PA AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN NEARBY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE BOUNDARY BECOMING SO
DIFFUSE THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE THE ASSOCIATED LLVL
LIFT WOULD RESIDE. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO INITIATE DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
BUT OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAINLY WEST OF I-95
(EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE POCONOS) OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
LIFT. ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS UNDER WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY UPSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST/ERN CANADA TOWARD MIDWEEK. HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO CLIMO EARLY IN THE WEEK AND PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MU80S MON-TUE AND LM 80S WED-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION...SO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS AT KACY ARE STILL IFR...AND AT THE OTHER END...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KRDG AND KABE. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODEST NE FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. I DO EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VFR ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY BEFORE EVENING...AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING. KACY AND KMIV WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE OFFER WIDELY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
PERIOD...SO I MOSTLY COMBINED THE TWO AND MIXED IN SOME CONSENSUS TO
COME UP WITH THE 18Z TAFS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...LOW CONFID IN
THE TIMING HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISO TSTM
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS EACH DAY, PRIMARILY WEST OF PHL AREA
TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR. LGT WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PREVAILING WINDS ALONG THE NRN NJ COASTAL WATERS WERE 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME SCA GUSTS EARLIER. SEAS MOSTLY 4 - 5 FT. THE LATEST
OBS SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE WILL TAKE THE SCA FLAG
DOWN WITH THE 330 PM FORECAST. SCT SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N AROUND DAWN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY.
AND CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS WOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HRRR SOLUTION WAS USED TO CREATE THE NEW
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z TONIGHT...THE NAM12
MODEL WAS USED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
ROUGHLY 2Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING
WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AFTER
THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PATTERN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60...WHICH IS
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEATHER RELATED ISSUED
TO LOOK OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
DENSITY OF FOG THAT FORMS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
TODAY. THE OTHER FACTOR INVOLVED WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT PERSISTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORE
QUICKLY THEN FOG FORMATION WILL BE FAVORED...PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE FLOW LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH THE DEEPER AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING
BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...DRY WEATHER WILL HANG IN THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS
ACROSS OUR VICINITY. DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT A BIT IN
THE POPS FURTHER OUT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO NAIL DOWN
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR GENERAL AVIATORS WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHENEVER A SHOWER OR
STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. THE STRONG SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE
THE WINDS AND RAINFALL ARE WITH EACH STORM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF FOR FORMATION...PARTICULARLY AT JKL AND LOZ WHERE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY OR OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY CONNECTED TO ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
TODAY. IF JKL SEES ANY RAIN TODAY...WHICH IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG BETWEEN
8 AND 12Z ON SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
301 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HRRR SOLUTION WAS USED TO CREATE THE NEW
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z TONIGHT...THE NAM12
MODEL WAS USED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
ROUGHLY 2Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING
WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AFTER
THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PATTERN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60...WHICH IS
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEATHER RELATED ISSUED
TO LOOK OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
DENSITY OF FOG THAT FORMS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
TODAY. THE OTHER FACTOR INVOLVED WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT PERSISTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORE
QUICKLY THEN FOG FORMATION WILL BE FAVORED...PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR GENERAL AVIATORS WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHENEVER A SHOWER OR
STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS ONE OF THE AIRPORTS. THE STRONG SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE
THE WINDS AND RAINFALL ARE WITH EACH STORM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF FOR FORMATION...PARTICULARLY AT JKL AND LOZ WHERE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY OR OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY CONNECTED TO ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
TODAY. IF JKL SEES ANY RAIN TODAY...WHICH IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG BETWEEN
8 AND 12Z ON SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT BROUGHT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS TO
THE U.P. LAST EVNG HAS PASSED TO THE E NOW...GIVING WAY TO A SHRTWV
RDG STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO THRU NRN MN. THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST
IN AIRMASSES OVER THE UPR LKS WITH 00Z RAOB FM GRB SHOWING PWAT UP
TO 1.07 INCH AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES/KINX 31 WHICH SUPPORTED
LAST EVNG`S CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z INL RAOB
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE...
WITH PWAT 0.47 INCH AND KINX 1. CLDS AND EVEN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHRTWV ARE STILL OVER ERN UPR MI...BUT
SKIES ARE NOW MOCLR OVER THE W AND THRU NRN MN AS THE DRIER AIR/DNVA
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV RDG ARE DOMINATING. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT SOME
OF THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SHRTWV RDG...THERE IS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR LK WINNIPEG DROPPING SEWD ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS/TS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
SHOWER/TS CHCS TNGT AS DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG APRCHS.
TODAY...SHRTWV RDG AXIS/ACCOMPANYING MID LVL DRY AIR IS FCST TO
DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS TDAY. DESPITE THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB...A FEW OF THE MODELS PERSIST IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS PCPN SEEMS
RELATED TO SOME RELATIVELY WEAK H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT IS FCST TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTN AS THE H85 FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE WSW FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE HI CENTER TO THE E. BUT GIVEN THE MID LVL
INVRN/DRY AIR IN THE FCST SDNGS THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSVD
INL RAOB...OPTED TO KEEP UPR MI DRY AND JUST FCST SOME INCRSG HI
BASED CU/AC ACCOMPANYING THE MARGINAL MSTR RETURN. FCST H85 TEMPS UP
TO 14C OVER THE W BY 00Z AND MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE INL RAOB
WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS REACHING THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W. THIS
DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT AS LO AS ARND 50...
DROPPING MIN RH TO AS LO AS ARND 30 PCT. BUT LGT WINDS WL RESTRICT
ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG TRACKS ESEWD THRU NW ONTARIO...
COMMA TAIL FEATURE/AXIS OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME MID LVL MOISTER
AIR IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS UPR MI. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER FORCING IS
FCST TO REMAIN TO THE N IN ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK... THE
INFLUX OF H85 THETA E IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS RATHER
WEAK/SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ZERO TO -1C AND THESE DYNAMICS WL BE
ARRIVING DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE ONLY SOME
SCT SHOWERS MAINLY LATE OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS AND
WL NEED LTL MODIFICATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SUNDAY...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. BY 18Z/03. THE ADDED LIFT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PAINTING AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
HIGHER VALUES SOUTH CENTRAL. ROUGHLY 300-400 J/KG IS SHOWN IN THE
-10C TO -30C HAIL GROWTH LAYER. THE INSTABILITY MIGHT HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE BETTER BUT THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
UP UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 500MB
HEIGHTS/VORTICITY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS OVERALL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS. OVERALL WIND
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGHOUT AND STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KNOTS
FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z/04 AND INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN OR NEARLY STALL OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MAY TRY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG WITH
VORTICITY...HOWEVER...THE LINGERING DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.
ALOFT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY ALONG TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS/EC HAVE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW GREAT LAKES. MODEL DIFFER ON EXACT
TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN BY 12Z/08...WHILE THE EC HAVING MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONSENSUS...BUT TEND TO FAVOR THE EC A BIT MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT CMX AND IWD.
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SAW MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NEARBY BY EARLY SUN AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR OVER THE CHILLY
LAKE WATERS INTO MON...NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA AS THEY DIVE INTO THE TROUGH. AT
19Z...NOTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. 02.12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED
700MB TEMPERATURES OF 9C AND 8C AT KUNR AND KLBF RESPECTIVELY...WITH
5C AND 6C AT KABR AND KOAX. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH THE
AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...THE WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS
AIR IS NOT WARM ENOUGH TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KVTN WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH THEN WEST /TO AROUND KBBW THROUGH KLBF AND
KOGA. STRONG HEATING AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S HAS CREATED DEEP MIXING UP TO 600MB AND WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WHERE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES EXIST. MU CAPES ARE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER ONGOING CONVECTION SO ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN VERY UNORGANIZED THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CUTS OFF THE ENERGY INTO THE STORMS. THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE PRECIPITATION GENERALLY STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ARC
FROM THE LOW TO KTIF TO KAIA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE DONE BY 06Z.
THE RAP AND THE NAM DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN ISOLATED STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET
ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS...BUT FEEL IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND NO REAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY A
CONCERN.
AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONGER LIFT AHEAD OF IT...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THIS IS REAL STRONG COULD GET MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT. IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...ONE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST IT WILL BE. CURRENT
SUITE OF MODELS SHOW MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST SKIRT THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY KEEPS IT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THEN FOR SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SLIGHTLY BUT NOT MUCH SO STILL LOOKING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS...MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AND WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING TO NEAR
650MB. ALSO...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR MID AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE THE LIFT IN THE
AREA. AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE CAUSED
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEE NO REASON WHY IT WON/T OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT...WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD AS UPPER LOW
OVER SERN CANADA ALSO SHIFTS EWD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH
ALLOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY TO BACK WWD INTO THE NERN PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...LEE SIDE LOW
PRESSURE REDEVLOPS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEBRASKA. THE ULITMATE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY TO THE PRECIPITATION
FCST THROUGH THE WEEK AND IS DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THIS PLACEMENT BY MONDAY THOUGH DIFFER BEYOND. THE NRN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SUNDAY EVE WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE DEEP
LAYER LIFT AND A BETTER CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NEB SUNDAY
EVE. HOWEVER...UPPER NW FLOW HAS GENERATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CURRENT PATTERN DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY
EVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...AND THEREFORE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FCST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE ALLOWS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FURTHER WEST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF THE NOCTURNAL HIGH
PLAINS LLJ WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE RAPID COOLING OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EVENING COMPARED TO A MORE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE FURTHER EAST. THIS LLJ ALSO STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER PV ANOMALIES ROUNDING THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC CYCLOGENESIS FAVORING THE WY/CO FRONT RANGE AND WRN HIGH PLAINS
BY MID WEEK. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ON INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG FURTHER SWD
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
NEBRASKA DURING MID WEEK. THE LLJ WILL BE EFFICIENT AT SUPPLYING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AREA AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH. THE RESULT IS PW VALUES APPROACHING +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NEARING
1.75 INCHES BY THU. IN ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS E OF
THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ERN NEB EARLY IN THE WEEK
BUT SHIFTS SWWD BY WED/THU TIME FRAME AS DOES THE BOUNDARY. THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF BOUNDARY LOCATION FROM DAY TO DAY WILL BE
DETERMINED LARGELY BY EACH ITERATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
MESOSCALE COLD POOL AUGMENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY TAKES
PLACE...MAKING SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DIFFICULT. IN GENERAL...THE DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY MID
WEEK SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL LOWER TO BELOW
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER LESSENS WITH LOWS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER
LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KONL ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE SO DON/T HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
OBSERVING A THUNDERSTORM. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS 21Z TO
01Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME OUT OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND HIT NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY...THIS COULD IMPACT KONL. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS REALLY NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM
WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT. THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...IF HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA REALIZES RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 00Z/7PM. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FEATURES ARE FAIRLY SUBTLE...THERE APPEAR TO BE TWO LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIPPLES WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ONE SHIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS...AND THE
OTHER POTENTIALLY OF GREATER CONSEQUENCE DROPPING SOUTH- SOUTHEAST
OUT OF SD INTO GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF NEB. THE FORMER WAVE
IS CURRENTLY AIDING SOME SHOWER/WEAK STORM ACTIVITY IN EASTERN
NEB...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SAFELY EAST OF THE CWA UNLESS
SOMETHING NEW WOULD HAPPEN TO FLARE UP IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE OFFICIALLY
CONFINED ANY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z TO ROUGHLY
AREAS WEST OF A BEAVER CITY-ORD LINE...WHERE VARIOUS MODELS SEEM
TO HINT AT HAVING THE BEST COMBINATION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
COMBINATION OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY 1000+ J/KG
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25+ KT...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT IF ANY STORMS DO FORM WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THEY COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN HOW THESE NEXT
6-12 HOURS UNFOLD...LET ALONE BEYOND THAT...GIVEN THAT VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM AND THE 15Z HRRR APPEAR TO
BE OVER-ZEALOUS IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN CWA APPEARS TO HOLD THE BEST
CHANCE OF POPPING ANY STORMS THROUGH 00Z/7PM...OTHER AREAS ARE NOT
GUARANTEED CONVECTION-FREE EITHER AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT
5-10 PERCENT POPS CWA-WIDE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMP-WISE THIS AFTERNOON...MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS HIGHS...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 87-92 RANGE. NO FORECAST UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED YET FOR BEYOND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
THE SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE CONTINUATION OF MORNING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD THIS AREA HANDLED WELL WITH COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF ONGOING SHOWERS NORTH OF NEBRASKA STATE HIGHWAY
92. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND...AND
THE IDEA THEY WILL WORK SOUTH TOWARD I-80 AND FIZZLE IN THE
MID MORNING HOURS. NOT UNCOMMON FOR EARLY AUGUST. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT SOME THUNDER
IS STILL AROUND AND CAN/T BE COUNTED OUT. THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THIS MORNING.
THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS. AT THIS
POINT...NOT SURE WHY THERE WOULDN/T BE DEVELOPMENT THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT TOWARD EVENING AS THE WAVE DIPS SOUTH. LOCATION IS
CHALLENGING...BUT BELIEVE THE FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FURTHER EAST/NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ITS SEEMS IT COULD BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. KANSAS
COUNTIES PROBABLY THE ODD MAN OUT REGARDING RAIN...BUT FORECASTING
THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORM LATER TODAY IS FAR FROM SETTLED
SCIENCE EVEN A MERE 12-15 HOURS OUT. HAVE INCLUDED A 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS CENTERED ON THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY COULD BE
ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
A BIT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SQUELCH MOST CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CAN/T SAY FOR SURE THERE IS
NO CHANCE. PROBLEM...JUST CAN/T REALLY SAY THERE IS A CHANCE
WITH ANY DEFINITIVE LOCATION BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS. WILL LEAVE
BOTH DAYS DRY FOR NOW...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM 20-30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THAT PERIOD...PROBABLY FAVORING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE
WIDESPREAD...IT WON/T NECESSARILY RAIN A WHOLE LOT EVERYWHERE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE TO REASON TO DOUBT AT THIS POINT THE END OF THE
END OF NEXT WEEK/INTO NEXT WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOME LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CONFIDENCE IN PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE/AREAL COVERAGE
DOES NOT EVEN APPEAR TO WARRANT A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION AT THIS POINT. SUSTAINED SURFACE BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 8-11KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT COULD
RESULT IN UP TO AROUND 30KT OF BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WIND AND WIND ALOFT UP INTO THE 1-2 THOUSAND FEET AGL
LEVEL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS). GIVEN THAT THIS POSSIBILITY IS LARGELY BEYOND
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND THAT THIS 30KT SHEAR
MAGNITUDE IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION ANYWAY...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY LLWS MENTION FOR NOW AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS
TO RE-EXAMINE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE HEAVIER STORMS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE FOCUS SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...AND LAPS SHOWING THE
EAST REMAINING STABLE SO FAR. CELLS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MOST NOTABLY OVER WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY TO
THE GALLUP AREA...BUT LESS ACTIVE OVERALL COMPARED TO THIS TIME THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PWATS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE
CHANGE FROM FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSITIONING AS THE
WEAK UPPER LOW PREPARES TO MOVE NORTH INTO ARIZONA. INITIAL THOUGHTS
WERE THAT THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE NEEDED TO BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD AND SOMEWHAT EASTWARD FOR TONIGHT...BUT 12Z LOCAL
WRF...NAM AND HRRR DON/T SUPPORT THAT IDEA AND ARE RATHER SPARSE
LOOKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. THEREFORE DECIDED TO LET THE CURRENT
WATCH RIDE...WHERE MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON/S ECHOS EXIST SO FAR.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVER THAT AREA...HOWEVER STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS SUGGEST THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY QUIET. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWEST TO NE OVER NEW
MEXICO...PUTTING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND ALLOWING THEM TO DRIFT OFF THE MTS INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD STILL
FEATURES A SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO DRY
OUT SOME...AND A DECREASE OVERALL IN CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FINALLY EXPERIENCE A REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF AUGUST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WET AND ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...KEEPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAINFALL HAVE BEEN SCATTERED EACH DAY OVER THE
PAST WEEK...BUT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PLAINS HAVE SEEN
PRECIPITATION ON OCCASION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART...ONLY GETTING SLIGHTLY BREEZY IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
GAPS/CANYONS THIS EVENING...AND OF COURSE GUSTY WITH ANY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE IN
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SUNDAY.
THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LAY
OVER OR TOPPLE TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. STORMS WILL ALSO PERIODICALLY BE
FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS. SOME LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
ALLOW MODERATE BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERALL HUMIDITY TRENDS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH NIGHT/MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
WETTING RAIN. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING DAYTIME HUMIDITY FAIRLY ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DAY-TO-DAY DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER A LARGE MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING...AND A FEW
LOCALIZED HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES ARE STILL OBSERVING SOME LOWER
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CYCLE STARTS OVER AGAIN WITH NEW CUMULUS
BUBBLING OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS
SURROUNDING THE GILA WILDERNESS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL ALSO
BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. HEFTY DOWNPOURS...DOWNBURST WINDS...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
NOT FULLY WANE IN WESTERN NM UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
TAFS HAVE BEEN BUILT WITH TEMPO GROUPS WHERE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
AND TIME FRAME WAS THOUGHT TO BE...BUT THESE MAY BE AMENDED
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
52
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 84 62 84 / 40 40 60 50
DULCE........................... 51 73 51 78 / 60 50 70 50
CUBA............................ 53 72 53 76 / 50 50 70 70
GALLUP.......................... 55 76 55 80 / 60 60 70 50
EL MORRO........................ 51 70 51 73 / 80 70 70 60
GRANTS.......................... 53 74 53 77 / 60 60 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 54 74 53 75 / 80 70 60 50
GLENWOOD........................ 58 81 56 82 / 80 50 50 40
CHAMA........................... 46 67 46 73 / 70 60 70 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 72 54 74 / 50 50 50 60
PECOS........................... 52 73 52 73 / 30 40 40 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 71 49 76 / 40 50 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 47 66 46 65 / 40 50 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 67 47 72 / 40 50 50 60
TAOS............................ 51 74 51 75 / 40 40 50 40
MORA............................ 51 72 51 73 / 30 40 40 60
ESPANOLA........................ 54 81 56 81 / 40 30 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 55 78 56 75 / 40 40 50 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 80 57 78 / 40 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 78 60 81 / 50 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 81 63 83 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 82 61 85 / 40 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 81 62 85 / 40 30 40 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 82 61 84 / 50 30 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 81 63 86 / 50 30 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 64 84 64 87 / 60 30 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 76 56 82 / 40 40 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 57 77 57 80 / 50 50 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 76 55 78 / 30 30 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 77 56 78 / 20 30 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 78 57 79 / 40 40 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 80 60 80 / 40 30 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 54 72 54 75 / 40 30 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 51 77 54 77 / 10 10 10 50
RATON........................... 54 81 56 81 / 20 20 10 30
SPRINGER........................ 53 79 55 81 / 20 20 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 77 53 77 / 20 20 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 59 87 61 88 / 10 5 5 10
ROY............................. 59 84 59 80 / 10 10 10 30
CONCHAS......................... 64 86 65 89 / 10 10 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 86 63 85 / 10 10 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 90 64 91 / 5 5 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 60 86 61 85 / 5 5 5 5
PORTALES........................ 61 88 63 86 / 5 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 87 65 87 / 10 10 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 66 88 66 90 / 20 10 5 10
PICACHO......................... 61 81 61 82 / 20 20 10 20
ELK............................. 57 77 57 75 / 40 30 20 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ505-506-508-509-520.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL KEEP VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...
VERY WET WEATHER CONTINUING TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CURRENT RUN OF THE RAP MODEL
NICELY SHOWS THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS EASTERN NC. THESE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING OUR
ATTENTION TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FOLLOW
A TRACK ALONG US HIGHWAY 1 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTH. THIS MORNING EXPECT LITTLE
ACTIVITY WEST OF I-95 OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD ROLL INTO OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE CAD WEDGE LOCKED IN
PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY COOL DAY AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S WEST TO LOW 80S EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. -ELLIS
ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL INTERACT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW T-
STORMS ALONG A STALLED COASTAL TROUGH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED
IMMEDIATELY E-SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SFC FEATURE MAY EDGE A
LITTLE ORE TO THE WEST BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAR WEST AS EARLIER MODEL
INDICATIONS DUE TO PRESENCE OF COOL STABLE SFC AIR MASS. MODELS HAVE
A TENDENCY OF WASHING OUT THE CAD AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY AND THIS MAY
BE THE CASE TODAY. THUS...WHILE LATEST GFS DEPICTS BULK SHEAR OF 35-
40KTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG...BELIEVE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE OVER OUR EASTERN-SE FRINGE...IN VICINITY
OF THE SFC TROUGH.
DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT...STILL A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. POPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
SOLID CHANCE WEST TO LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE...RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE RISK FOR
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH APPEARS GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1.
TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS REGION. THIS FEATURE DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PICK OUT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WRF AND CAM RADAR DEPICTIONS
SIMILAR...SUGGESTING SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL SEEP INTO MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND
TODAY. MEANWHILE...SFC TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A LIKELY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EAST...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT
LEADING TO AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPS TODAY BUT STILL 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IF CAD AIR MASS
HOLDS ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
RECENT DAYS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MODEL SPREAD MORE
PRONOUNCED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DEAMPLIFYING...POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO
RENEWED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE NE CONUS MID-LATE WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS AND AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MON...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WILL
SAG SOUTH AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC ON THU...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY FRI.
THE RESULT OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM THE PERTURBED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT - AND ABOVE
AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES - TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR
NC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INVOF THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE ON
THU. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND NEAR
90 DEGREES BY WED...TRENDING DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE SOCKED INTO THE LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE OVER CENTRAL NC. MOST SITES REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS
AT THIS HOUR. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION TRIES TO BREAK THROUGH BUT AT
THIS POINT...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GREATEST FROM HIGHWAY 1 EASTWARD WITH KFAY AND KRWI THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AT PLUS OR MINUS 5 KTS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING FURTHER DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE QUICK TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE PREMATURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN DOWN ALL DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THE TRIAD COULD RETURN TO VFR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION...AND CONSEQUENTLY AVIATION CONDITIONS...WILL
COME AND GO WITH VARIOUS SMALLER IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ028-043-078-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
611 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MID WEEK. A STRONGER
HIGH THEN BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TO ADJUST TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AND TO BETTER TIME THE
LINE AS IT CROSSES WEST TO EAST. STORMS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THEY CONTINUE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LESS INSTABILITY NOTED FURTHER EAST
OF THE I79 CORRIDOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE GRASPING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THAT TROUGH
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AT TIMES AS IT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. IT THEN
OPENS UP AND PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HAVE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WANING WITH THE SUNSET TONIGHT...THEN
REFIRING A BIT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE
TRENDING DRIER FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SLOWER CELL
MOVEMENT AS THE FLOW IN THE COLUMN WEAKENS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY...WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME
TIMING...PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...AND FOLLOWED THE
TREND OF THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF POPS...WHICH IS SLOWER...AND NOT AS
COOL AS THE GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERNING THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID WEEK...AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM...THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KEPT A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS...AND OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER TREND
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TOO INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE IN THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON...AND IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROMM THE W. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR
STRATOCU MAY ALSO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN WV TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MAINLY VFR DAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING EWD.
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT NW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION MAY VARY
INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IN GENERAL IS HIGH.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H M M L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H M M H L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H M H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M M H L L
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
VLIFR IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS FOG
SEASON IS UPON US...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MID WEEK. A STRONGER
HIGH THEN BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE GRASPING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THAT TROUGH BECOMES A
CLOSED LOW AT TIMES AS IT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. IT THEN OPENS UP
AND PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HAVE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WANING WITH THE SUNSET TONIGHT...THEN
REFIRING A BIT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE
TRENDING DRIER FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SLOWER CELL
MOVEMENT AS THE FLOW IN THE COLUMN WEAKENS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY...WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME
TIMING...PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...AND FOLLOWED THE
TREND OF THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF POPS...WHICH IS SLOWER...AND NOT AS
COOL AS THE GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERNING THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID WEEK...AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM...THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KEPT A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS...AND OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER TREND
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TOO INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE IN THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON...AND IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROMM THE W. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR
STRATOCU MAY ALSO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN WV TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MAINLY VFR DAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING EWD.
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT NW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION MAY VARY
INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IN GENERAL IS HIGH.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS FOG
SEASON IS UPON US...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MID WEEK. A STRONGER
HIGH THEN BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE GRASPING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THAT TROUGH BECOMES A
CLOSED LOW AT TIMES AS IT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. IT THEN OPENS UP
AND PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HAVE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WANING WITH THE SUNSET TONIGHT...THEN
REFIRING A BIT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE
TRENDING DRIER FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SLOWER CELL
MOVEMENT AS THE FLOW IN THE COLUMN WEAKENS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT
AGREE ON ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL RUN WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH.
MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY. NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
THE DRIER AIR...BUT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
BE TOO DRY FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS.
TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM VARIES BY MODEL. WITH CANADIAN AND GFS
BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IN ON TUESDAY...WILL INCLUDE SOME
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...CREATING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT/TIMING...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TOO INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE IN THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON...AND IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROMM THE W. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR
STRATOCU MAY ALSO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN WV TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MAINLY VFR DAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING EWD.
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT NW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION MAY VARY
INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IN GENERAL IS HIGH.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS FOG
SEASON IS UPON US...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES.
THIS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THE RADAR...AND A COMBINATION OF LAKE BREEZE AND INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PART OF PA. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY
LATE EVENING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPROUT AND IMPACT CENTRAL PA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER OH
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF AXIS...BUT WILL SPREAD TO
FAR NORTHWEST PA ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE THIS EVENING AS THE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD
TONIGHT...AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME PERSISTENT LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO LIKELIES IN THESE AREAS AS A
RESULT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED THIS EVENING...BUT
EVENING SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER FFA FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OVERNIGHT IF THE HRRR SOLUTION GAINS GREATER FAVOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL PA
ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF AMBIENT MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
FORCING SHOULD SPELL AN ACTIVE SHOWERY DAY WITH LOCAL SLOW MOVING
HEAVY RAINERS...AS 850 MB WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS. AFTN MAXES
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY OVERALL GIVEN VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE OH
VLY SYSTEM LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MONDAY INTO TUE AM...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.
DID EDGE TEMPS UP SOME DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO WED...AND
LOWER MIN TEMPS SOME...GIVEN THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP. WITH N TO NE FLOW...FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN SPOTS
EARLY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SE LATE TUE INTO WED WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WED. DID UP
POPS ACROSS THE NW LATER TUE AFT...AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AFTER WED. TREND WITH MODELS INCLUDING
THE EC IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH. THUS
GIVEN TRACK RECORD THIS SUMMER...DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL PA. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT BFD...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING WITH THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS DRIFTS
TOWARDS OH/PA BORDER. ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLEAR...A BUILDING INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT BFD TO JST...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THU...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004-005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO/DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES.
THIS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THE RADAR...AND A COMBINATION OF LAKE BREEZE AND INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PART OF PA. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY
LATE EVENING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPROUT AND IMPACT CENTRAL PA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIONN REMAINS OVER OH
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF AXIS...BUT WILL SPREAD
TO FAR NORTHWEST PA ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE THIS EVENING AS THE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD
TONIGHT...AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME PERSISTEN LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO LIKELIES IN THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED THIS EVENING...BUT EVENING
SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER FFA FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT IF
THE HRRR SOLUTION GAINS GREATER FAVOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL PA
ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF AMBIENT MOISTUREAND PERSISTENT UPPER FORCING
SHOULD SPELL AN ACTIVE SHOWERY DAY WITH LOCAL SLOW MOVING HEAVY
RAINERS...AS 850 MB WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS. AFTN MAXES VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY OVERALL GIVEN VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE OH
VLY SYSTEM LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MONDAY INTO TUE AM...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.
DID EDGE TEMPS UP SOME DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO WED...AND
LOWER MIN TEMPS SOME...GIVEN THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP. WITH N TO NE FLOW...FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN SPOTS
EARLY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SE LATE TUE INTO WED WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WED. DID UP
POPS ACROSS THE NW LATER TUE AFT...AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AFTER WED. TREND WITH MODELS INCLUDING
THE EC IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH. THUS
GIVEN TRACK RECORD THIS SUMMER...DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. VCSH
WARRANTED FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCT COVERAGE OF CELLS. MOST FOCUSED
AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE PA/OH BORDER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
THICKER FOG EXPECTED. ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AS
UPPER TROF AXIS DRIFTS TOWARDS OH/PA BORDER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004-005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO/DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPROUT AND IMPACT CENTRAL PA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIONN REMAINS OVER OH AHEAD
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF AXIS...BUT WILL SPREAD TO FAR
NORTHWEST PA ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE THIS EVENING AS THE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD
TONIGHT...AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME PERSISTEN LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO LIKELIES IN THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED THIS EVENING...BUT EVENING
SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER FFA FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT IF
THE HRRR SOLUTION GAINS GREATER FAVOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL PA
ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF AMBIENT MOISTUREAND PERSISTENT UPPER FORCING
SHOULD SPELL AN ACTIVE SHOWERY DAY WITH LOCAL SLOW MOVING HEAVY
RAINERS...AS 850 MB WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS. AFTN MAXES VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY OVERALL GIVEN VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
/AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY
CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN
AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/. HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE
TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE
A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. VCSH
WARRANTED FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCT COVERAGE OF CELLS. MOST FOCUSED
AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE PA/OH BORDER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
THICKER FOG EXPECTED. ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AS
UPPER TROF AXIS DRIFTS TOWARDS OH/PA BORDER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST BEGININNG TO SPROUT ACROSS CENTRAL PA...
SEVERAL OVER EASTERN CENTRE COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. REGIONALLY...
THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIONN REMAINS OVER AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
OHIO BY 00Z SUN.
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPPER FORCING FROM 2 SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA WILL FOCUS THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 00Z 4KM SPC WRF
AND LATEST HRRR CONSOLIDATING THIS ACTIVITY ALONG OR JUST WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY CREST IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PA.
FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM 1.4" TO 1.6" WILL
PROMOTE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS...AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
NEGLIGIBLE...WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY
(RADAR ESTIMATES EXCEEDED 3 INCHES AROUND PINE GROVE FURNACE IN
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...AND OVER 2.5 INCHES NORTH OF
LINGLESTOWN IN DAUPHIN COUNTY). HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS
ISOLATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO PA AND REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
LIMITING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AGAIN
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
/AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY
CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN
AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/. HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE
TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE
A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
QUIET RADAR SCOPE AT 12Z...WITH GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS IN MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FROM KUNV-KIPT.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z.
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AS A 4000FT DECK DEVELOPS. HRRR INDICATES
SHOWERS MAY FIRST INITIATE AROUND KIPT...BUT AS DAY WEARS ON
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. WITH HIT
AND MISS VARIETY CONVECTION...HELD ON TO VCSH AFTER 18Z IN MOST
TERMINALS...WITH UPDATES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST IF RESTRICTIONS
BECOME MORE IMMINENT AT TERMINALS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
THICKER FOG EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.MARINE...HAVE INITIAL MVFR CIGS AT KCRP WITH KCRP MTR AND KNGP
MTR SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS (NO THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE TWO
TERMINALS). THESE SHOULD BE DONE BY 21Z. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END BY
20Z AT KALI. AFTER THAT...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AT KLRD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
(ALTHOUGH MOS POPS ARE IN CHANCE CATEGORY). FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
A VCTS AS ANY STORMS WHICH MOVE TOWARD/ALONG RIO GRANDE FROM OLD
MEXICO/RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN AND END (FEEL INFLOW
INSUFFICIENT TO BRING CONVECTION INTO TERMINAL AT THIS TIME ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST). OTHER THAN THAT...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS AT KLRD AND KVCTWITH VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT KCRP
AND KALI LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KALI WHERE THEY
HAD BETTER RAINS. AM GOING WITH MVFR BR/TEMPO IFR BR AT KCRP AND
IFR BR/TEMPO LIFR FG AT KALI BEFORE 14Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
(YES...NORTHERLY IN EARLY AUGUST) AFTER SUNRISE ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING STARTING TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. WILL SEE (AND ALREADY ARE SEEING) SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER INTO THE CWFA. STILL SOME
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE RIO GRANDE (ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK).
THUS...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS AND ONLY
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING. CURRENT HRRR DATA SHOWS NO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS KIND OF LINES UP
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES SENT...UPDATED MOST GRID PARAMETERS
THROUGH 06Z. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS-
IS...SINCE WOULD LIKE TO LOOK AT MORE NEW DATA SINCE SUBTLE
CHANGES IN MOISTURE AND/OR POSITION OF BOUNDARY COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE...KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
(HIGHER CAPES/LITTLE TO NO CIN)...BUT ADJUTED THEM DOWN-WARD FOR
THE BAYS/NEARSHORE. NOT MUCH IN WIND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND
INCREASE QPF. UPDATES ARE SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS
FROM CRP-ALI EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
REACH LRD DURING THE LATE MORNING. VCT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT VCT WITH
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINING THREE
SITES...MVFR/VFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. MAY SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ONCE MORE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL SITES BUT
DUE TO ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN NATURE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LAPS DATA CURRENTLY HAS THE
WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA FROM COTULLA TO BEEVILLE TO PORT
LAVACA. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH NEAR 2.3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT CLOSER IN PROXIMITY...MOISTURE DEPTH
HAS INCREASED AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT LULL THIS
EVENING SHOULD OCCUR...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...REMAINING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS
AND COASTAL BEND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
DAYS PAST ALTHOUGH REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
WITH THE USUAL SUMMER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO REASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE EFFECTS OF AN UNSEASONABLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALL OF WHICH
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE PRECIPITATION LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT
HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MARINE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
VARIATIONS. GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A SMALL AMOUNT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 95 74 94 / 30 10 20 20 20
VICTORIA 91 73 95 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 93 78 99 80 100 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 89 75 97 73 97 / 30 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 84 77 90 78 91 / 20 10 20 20 20
COTULLA 95 75 98 76 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 75 96 74 95 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 78 90 78 91 / 30 10 20 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML