Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
235 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.Synopsis...
Another day of Sierra crest showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
(less coverage than today)...when a drying trend. Then a return
to Sierra showers and t-storms early/mid week next week.
&&
.Discussion...
Activity started pretty early today with showers and
thunderstorms along highest terrain from Near Plumas county all
the way south to Tuolumne County. Expect this activity to continue
off and on this afternoon but probably end a bit quicker than
normal by early afternoon as latest moisture plume pushes off to
the east. HRRR hinting at some weak possible returns in valley
near Sacramento...as there is some mid level instability in the
area...but rally lacking a trigger for valley and should result in
ACCUS.
Thursday...still some instability lingering around highest terrain
for isolated activity...less than today...again confined to crest.
Friday and Saturday...westerly flow pushes moisture and
instability out of area for dry weather. Should see temperatures
at to slightly above normal during this time. Rasch
&&
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Upper ridge positioned over the Intermountain West Sunday as weak
upper trough moves through NorCal. Increased mid-level
southwesterly flow Sunday will keep the threat of afternoon
thunderstorms outside of the forecast area with only a slight
chance over the higher Sierra Nevada, south of Highway 50, on
Monday. Models then depict upper ridging from the Desert SW
rebuilding northwestward over Interior NorCal next week. Mid-level
flow begins to turn more southerly Tue and southeasterly Wed with
another slug of monsoonal moisture working its way into the
forecast area. Threat of afternoon thunderstorms expands
northward along the Sierra Tuesday, through Western Plumas into
the Shasta and coastal mountains Wednesday. Near normal high
temperatures expected through early next week then warming upwards
of 5 degrees above normal Wednesday.
&&
.Aviation...
Upr rdg movs E as SWly flow alf with EPAC upr trof incrs Thu. Isold
tstms poss ovr hyr mtn trrn of the Cstl rnge, Shasta, Plumas, and
Siernev thru 05z Thu otrw VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs.
Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trnn and thru
Delta aftns into eves.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
926 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...DJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
512 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE FRESNO
AREA WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAINFALL NEAR CLOVIS BEING REPORTED.
THESE CELLS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH MADERA COUNTY.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT FOR THIS MORNING AS IR IMAGERY
IS INDICATING A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
411 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE REDWOOD COAST WILL SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W MENDOCINO COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT N AND NE
AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCLUDED 15% POPS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA...BUT EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
DRY AIR THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN DUE TO MONSOONAL FLOW TODAY.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE TRINITY HORN AND UP INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR COVERAGE TO TUESDAY`S PATTERN.
GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALTHO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LOWER 500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP...BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE
IS ONLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU LINE AND POINTS N.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON THU. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS...AGAIN FOCUSED
TOWARD THE TRINITY HORN.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TONIGHT AND
THU...BUT A SMALLER AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE REDWOOD
COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND. /SEC
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTERACTING
WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU BORDER. AT THIS TIME...
THE ZONE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER... WILL HIGHLIGHT TSTMS IN AN FWF HEADLINE. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM SUN PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
935 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE HRRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREEN RIVER. NO OTHER MODEL HAVE SHOWED
THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH THE RAP KEPT THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED ACROSS
SW COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO SW COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER /0.25/ TO ONE HALF /0.50/ INCH. WITH
THE AIR MASS STAYING RELATIVELY MOIST...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THE HRRR AND SHORT TERM TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF BY 15Z THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HEATING COMMENCED. THINKING FOG WAS A RESULT OF THE
SATURATED GROUND FROM RAIN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. STORMS WERE QUICK TO FIRE ONCE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
CLEARED AROUND 17Z WITH STORMS STAYING CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SAN JUANS AS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WAS
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS IN WHICH STORMS DRIFTED OFF THE SAN
JUANS JUST BEFORE 18Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AROUND AN INCH
ON THE 12Z GJT SOUNDING THIS MORNING SO STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND TO GENERATE STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. BEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70 AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DRIFT INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
MUDSLIDE ALONG HIGHWAY 133 NORTH OF MCCLURE PASS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF A STORM THAT DID NOT APPEAR THAT STRONG ON RADAR.
LOCALIZED MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS IN SOME OF THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT.
LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS
SHIFTING WESTWARD BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 0.75 INCHES ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMTS NEAR AN INCH TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS. MUCH LESS MOISTURE EVIDENT ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO WITH 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES. THE GFS INDICATES A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOPPING THE RIDGE. THIS IS
INDICATED BY SOME VORT MAXES AND A 55 KT JET STREAK THAT MOVES
THROUGH. THE NAM IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THIS
MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AS GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND REMAINING MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE. LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ARE FAVORED
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. STORMS WILL HAVE DECENT MOTION WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS. STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES OF 0.5 TO THE NORTH AND
0.75 TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY...
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD AND A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED. PW DROPS
TO AROUND 0.5 INCH ACROSS THE NORTH/0.8 INCH OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE NOTED...THUS A GENERAL DOWN TURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BACK TO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY OPENING THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
STRONGER WAVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND LEAD
TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS INDICATED
BEHIND THE TUESDAY DISTURBANCE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBUILDS
TO OUR WEST. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT LESS WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST THREAT FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER SW COLORADO.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
542 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. SPOTTY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...CONTDVD...AND ERN MTS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE REMOVED MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR THE PLAINS AS THE PROBABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
E OF THE MTS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION AND HEADED SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO TELLER
COUNTY OR CROSS THE SANGRES...THEY WEAKEN QUICKLY. COOL STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PERSISTENT CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR....WHICH HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE FROM THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY EASTWARD...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION WHICH MOVES INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE HRRR RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER STORMS STAYING FURTHER WEST OF
THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
REACHING WALDO CANYON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS STORMS
WILL WEAKEN. APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE I25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THE UPSLOPE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN OVER TELLER COUNTY. LATEST
NAM STILL KEEPS PW OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTHWARD. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. STILL APPEARS
TO BE CAPPED FURTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS BY THE KANSAS BORDER.
OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOSTLY STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON
STORMS. - -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...PUSHING BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO NM OVERNIGHT. WILL END POPS MOST AREAS LATE
FRI EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW POPS PAST 06Z FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NM BORDER. FOR SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM UTAH INTO WRN CO...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD. MAX
TEMPS WILL FINALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY
AUG...THOUGH EVEN WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY NOT REACH
90F. HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD SUN...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-25 LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN EVENING. MAXES SUN
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH HIGH OVERHEAD...AND A FEW 90S MAY
FINALLY REAPPEAR ON THE PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM MON WHILE
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING...SHOULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN UPTURN IN PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY OVER NRN CO TUE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COULD AID IN CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUE
EVENING. DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WED/THU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM MON/TUE MOST LOCATIONS...THEN
GRADUALLY COOL WED/THU AS UPPER HIGH RETREATS AND COOLER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD STAY FREE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
STILL SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FG OR BR
EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...BUT WILL LEAVE EXPLICIT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS...AS HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE FG
POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TS MOVING OFF
THE MTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...SO WILL INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
521 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION AND HEADED SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO TELLER
COUNTY OR CROSS THE SANGRES...THEY WEAKEN QUICKLY. COOL STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PERSISTENT CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR....WHICH HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE FROM THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY EASTWARD...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION WHICH MOVES INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE HRRR RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER STORMS STAYING FURTHER WEST OF
THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
REACHING WALDO CANYON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS STORMS
WILL WEAKEN. APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE I25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THE UPSLOPE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN OVER TELLER COUNTY. LATEST
NAM STILL KEEPS PW OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTHWARD. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. STILL APPEARS
TO BE CAPPED FURTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS BY THE KANSAS BORDER.
OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOSTLY STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON
STORMS. - -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...PUSHING BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO NM OVERNIGHT. WILL END POPS MOST AREAS LATE
FRI EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW POPS PAST 06Z FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NM BORDER. FOR SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM UTAH INTO WRN CO...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD. MAX
TEMPS WILL FINALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY
AUG...THOUGH EVEN WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY NOT REACH
90F. HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD SUN...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-25 LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN EVENING. MAXES SUN
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH HIGH OVERHEAD...AND A FEW 90S MAY
FINALLY REAPPEAR ON THE PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM MON WHILE
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING...SHOULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN UPTURN IN PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY OVER NRN CO TUE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COULD AID IN CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUE
EVENING. DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WED/THU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM MON/TUE MOST LOCATIONS...THEN
GRADUALLY COOL WED/THU AS UPPER HIGH RETREATS AND COOLER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD STAY FREE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
STILL SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FG OR BR
EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...BUT WILL LEAVE EXPLICIT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS...AS HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE FG
POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TS MOVING OFF
THE MTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...SO WILL INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PLAN TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. OTHERWISE...SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE CERTAINLY REMAINS MOIST BOTH AT THE LOWER
LEVELS AND ALOFT. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A
BOUNDARY MOVING WEST AND PROVIDING FOCUS AND LIFT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS. CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL BECOMING PRIMARILY A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT. STILL...WITH ANY STORMS/SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW...
THEY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND FOCUS COULD BE
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STARK
UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PULL IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.
TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. A
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING. LATEST NAM DEPICTS
THIS FRONT MAKING IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CO MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY
RAINS IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...STARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE ONES LEFT TO THE WEST ARE RUNNING ON FUMES.
THE NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN IS TOWARD MORNING IF PCPN IN THE CAROLINAS
CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE SHORT WAVES LOOK VIGOROUS ENOUGH, SO
WHILE WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BASED ON COSPA/HRRR AND RUC TRENDS, WE
DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THUNDER NOT LIKELY.
WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AND UPWARD
SOUTHEAST BASED ON CLOUD TREND. CLOUDINESS IS LINED PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER AIR FLOW, SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO BACK
NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL BE NUDGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MAV/MET ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND
INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.
A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.
BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR LOCAL AREA
WITH A MESO-LOW ANALYZED OVER JAX METRO AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW A SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO FORM AND MOVING TO NEAR I-95 IN SE
GA...BUT STILL PINNED TO THE NE FL COAST. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES NEAR THE SE GA COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. A PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD THE NE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL AND WILL FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TRACK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE BEYOND OUR WATERS
THIS EVENING. ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE OVER SE GA. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING. THE DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN AGAIN AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE 50S OVER INTERIOR SE GA AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND
SE GA COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY BUT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEABREEZE. POPS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SHORT WAVE AFFECTS GA. POPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...INCREASING TO AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVLES.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK JUST TO THE WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS GA. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES AND A SW STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTN/EVNG
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS NEAR THE EAST COAST BY
LATE DAY AS SEABREEZES MERGE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SE TUE
AND WED WHICH SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE IN SE GA MAY
AFFECT SSI AND HAVE VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE LATE AND THEN SE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRI THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND POSSIBLY REACH SCEC CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MIXING DOWN WILL LOWER RH`S TO NEAR 30
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET HEADLINE
CRITERIA. RH`S WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 92 73 92 / 10 30 30 40
SSI 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 30 40
JAX 71 90 74 91 / 10 20 20 40
SGJ 75 88 75 89 / 10 20 20 40
GNV 69 92 72 92 / 0 20 20 40
OCF 70 92 72 92 / 0 20 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN/NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH IN ALL 18Z TAFS AT START
TIME...BUT DELAYED VCTS UNTIL 19Z FOR EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO
LATE ONSET OF SEA-BREEZE. GULF-BREEZE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF
NAPLES...SO ELIMINATED VCTS THERE ENTIRELY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
BY 0Z...EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP LATE MORNING THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS AWAY FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS...MAINLY SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION...BUT SE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE ARE LIKELY MOST EASTERN TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS
REFLECTED BY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES IN MIAMI
SOUNDING AS WELL AS DATA FROM BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT. HIGHER
MOISTURE, TYPICALLY-HIGH INSTABILITY AND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH POINT TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL FOCUS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVECTION. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 77 91 / 40 60 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 80 91 / 50 60 30 50
MIAMI 79 90 79 90 / 40 60 40 40
NAPLES 80 90 79 87 / 30 50 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS
REFLECTED BY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES IN MIAMI
SOUNDING AS WELL AS DATA FROM BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT. HIGHER
MOISTURE, TYPICALLY-HIGH INSTABILITY AND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH POINT TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL FOCUS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVECTION. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WARRANT VCSH INCLUSION AROUND
14-15Z...WITH VCTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE
CONSIDERED...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISN`T QUITE
SUFFICIENT. FOR NAPLES...SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT VCSH IS ONGOING NOW DUE TO ACTIVITY IN THE GULF AND
EVERGLADES. OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS AT
EASTERN TERMINALS TO SOUTHEAST. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 70 50 60 30
MIAMI 92 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 89 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR OVER INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS FILTRATED INTO
N-CENTRAL FL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW RESTING NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. WITH THAT
SAID...WE HAVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO ALONG THE SE GA COAST. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SURROUNDS THE FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SWD INTO EXTREME NE FL. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW AN
INVERSION AT 800 MB...WITH DRY AND WARM AIR IN MID/HIGH LEVELS.
LLVL VORTICITY NEAR THE COAST IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND OVER NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED POSSIBLY ALONG A LAND BREEZE.
THE HRRR HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND DEPICTS SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND OVER COASTAL
ZONES NORTH OF JAX BEACH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z
SHOWERS DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS AND CONTINUE WITH THE SEA BREEZE
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO BRUNSWICK AND JESUP. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE. HRRR SHOWS
SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 FOR REMAINDER OF NE FL COAST...AND
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF TO SINGLE
DIGITS FARTHER INLAND WITH EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE
GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND ARE MAINLY OFFSHORE EXCEPT
OVER NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SE GA COAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPDATE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 68 92 73 / 10 10 20 30
SSI 87 76 87 78 / 20 10 30 40
JAX 91 71 89 75 / 20 10 20 30
SGJ 90 75 87 76 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 93 69 91 72 / 10 10 20 20
OCF 93 70 92 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/SHASHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WARRANT VCSH INCLUSION AROUND
14-15Z...WITH VCTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE
CONSIDERED...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISNT QUITE
SUFFICIENT. FOR NAPLES...SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT VCSH IS ONGOING NOW DUE TO ACTIVITY IN THE GULF AND
EVERGLADES. OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS AT
EASTERN TERMINALS TO SOUTHEAST. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 70 50 60 30
MIAMI 92 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 89 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 68 92 73 / 0 10 20 30
SSI 87 76 87 78 / 20 10 30 40
JAX 91 71 89 75 / 20 10 20 30
SGJ 90 75 87 76 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 93 69 91 72 / 10 10 20 20
OCF 93 70 92 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
...STORMY PATTERN THROUGH WEEK`S END...
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z. /60
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 70 50 60 30
MIAMI 92 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 89 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
949 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ALREADY SEEING CONFLUENCE BANDS IN THE
FORM OF FINE LINES ON KCLX RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND STRETCHING INTO THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN FACT...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AREA ALONG ONE OF THESE BANDS.
THE LATEST H3R IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP AND 4KM-NSSL
WRF SHOWING CONVECTION RE-FIRING LATER TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
AS A RESULT...THE TAF INDICATES PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
050-052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
739 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH BROUGHT FLASH FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND
IS AFFECTING UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY.
THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS SHOWERS/TSTMS TRAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
AS A RESULT...THE TAF INDICATES PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
050-052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/JAQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH NERN IL AND NWRN IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...DIURNAL CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN...BUT THE REGION REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME ISOLD SHRA OR AN EVEN MORE ISOLD TS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DURG THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY DIURNAL PCPN WILL DISSIPATE AND AND RESIDUAL
PCPN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INVOF ON OF THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE AND A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SFC. UNDER PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK GRADIENT PATTERN
AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE WILL PENETRATE.
CERTAINLY...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE
COOLING WILL PENETRATE. SO...WILL KEEP THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A BIT
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS FAR AS LAKE INFLUENCE IS CONCERNED AND
LIMIT THE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. UNDER THE COOL
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F OR SO. TIMING OF PERIODS OF PCPN
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WHILE NO DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...THERE
SHOULD BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY...WITH
INLAND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT A WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTING AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL CREEP INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW...SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN...SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST
WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMING
TREND COULD BE BRIEF AS A WEAK UPPER LOW HANGS BACK OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT
BUILD ANY FARTHER EAST THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...THE SFC
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR THE EXTEDNED FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPPING UP FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PCPN.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS JUST UNDER 10 KTS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA IS ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO
MAKE SOME GOOD PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO PUT THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
KMDW AROUND 1930 UTC AND THROUGH KORD IN THE 20 TO 21 UTC TIME
FRAME. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG BEHIND THE LAKE
BREEZE...WITH GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE LAKE BREEZE
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TERMINALS.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BE
THE THREAT FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON AN
UPTICK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD EVEN LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR CIG AROUND 4000 FEET AGL...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LOWER AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED...I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH AND LEAVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MEDIUM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
* LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING...SCHC SHRA LATE
IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY...CHC SHRA WITH A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SATURDAY...SCHC SHRA IN THE MORNING...CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
An upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will
continue to keep Illinois in an unseasonably cool airmass into the
weekend. Chances of spotty showers or storms will continue through
Saturday, then a dry period may develop as into early next week as
upper level ridging advances into IL. Warmer conditions appear in
the far extended as high temps approach normal on Tue and Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
A few showers bubbled up this afternoon northeast of a line from
Bloomington to Mattoon. Any lightning through 230 pm remained in
Indiana closer to the better mid-level instability. RAP sounding
analysis east of Champaign showed only 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE for
storm updraft development in our counties, which supports the
limited vertical development observed visually and on satellite.
We expect any showers in our northeastern forecast area to
dissipate by 00z/7pm, so no precip was included in the evening
grids. The diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate with the
passage of sunset as well, providing clear skies overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, creating
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Lows should dip into the
mid to upper 50s in most locations. A few spots could linger in
the low 60s depending on localized surface dewpoint trends.
Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a few isolated
afternoon showers east-northeast of PIA to BMI to MTO. Highs
will top out in the low 80s with relatively comfortable dewpoints
around 60F.
Friday and Saturday will feature the passage of stronger 500mb
shortwaves, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and
storms. We still expect mainly 30-40% coverage on both days, but
thunder potential will be higher due to deeper mid-level
instability and increasing moisture. Highs will still remain below
normal in the low 80s through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.
The upper level low will shift east of Illinois for Sunday through
Monday with upper level ridging providing dry conditions both days.
Slow warming will begin...with highs by Monday approaching the
middle 80s. Storm chances are expected to return on Tuesday and
Wednesday the next series of shortwaves roll over the top of the
ridge in the Plains. No strong to severe weather is anticipated at
this point. A warm front developing north of IL will help
southerly flow bring mid to upper 80s into our forecast area,
which are closer to normal for early Aug.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. SCT
to occasionally BKN diurnal clouds at 4000-5000ft this afternoon
will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies expected
overnight. The cycle will repeat on Thursday, with SCT diurnal
cloud cover once again developing by late morning/early afternoon.
Winds will be light from the NW this afternoon, then will shift to
the W/SW on Thursday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
202 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MID 80 HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PARKED OVER JAMES BAY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OVER CENTRAL WI AND IT
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT LOSES STEAM
THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN IL AND IN.
A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY SO THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BETWEEN THE LAKE BREEZE AND
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT. CAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO BELOW
500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING A TON OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY SO THINKING
THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL NOT
BE SEVERE...BUT MAY BE DOWNDRAFT DRIVEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
LIKE YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY SO EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS. SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE OUTLYING AREAS...BUT IN THE LOW 60S DOWNTOWN.
JEE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH
AN ESTABLISHED LONG WAVE...MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EACH OF THESE LOOK TO BRING SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT FOR ELONGATED CAPE
PROFILES NEAR PEAK HEATING. ALL IN ALL THESE CONTINUE TO PRESENT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
THERE CONTINUES FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON BRINGING AN UPPER/MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE SOUTHWARD FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS
SUPPORT HIGHER POPS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE AREA AND WHILE THE
MAGNITUDES OF BOTH MAY BE EXTREME /70 PERCENT PLUS/...THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED COVERAGE MORE SO THAN TODAY AND THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO DO HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. VERY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ADVERTISED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO STEER A COOL
FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH LARGE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REACHES. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO A WELL-
VERIFYING BLEND OF GUIDANCE BESIDES INCHING UP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONTAL FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-NE ARND 10
KT...THROUGH MDW AROUND 1930 UTC AND ORD BETWEEN 20 AND 21 UTC.
* WIDELY SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW TSRA ALSO
PSBL.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA IS ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO
MAKE SOME GOOD PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO PUT THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
KMDW AROUND 1930 UTC AND THROUGH KORD IN THE 20 TO 21 UTC TIME
FRAME. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG BEHIND THE LAKE
BREEZE...WITH GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE LAKE BREEZE
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TERMINALS.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BE
THE THREAT FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON AN
UPTICK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD EVEN LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR CIG AROUND 4000 FEET AGL...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LOWER AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED...I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH AND LEAVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH LAKE BREEZE TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING...SCHC SHRA LATE
IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY...CHC SHRA WITH A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SATURDAY...SCHC SHRA IN THE MORNING...CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
High pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
River Valley is providing mostly sunny and cool conditions to
central Illinois this morning. Main question will be whether or
not any showers will develop within the cyclonic flow pattern
aloft. 14z/9am water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning
over Hudson Bay, with short-wave trough rotating around this
feature across southern Michigan. The influence of this wave will
likely remain NE of Illinois today, with scattered showers/thunder
developing across southern Michigan/Northern Indiana this
afternoon. Upper support will be weaker further W/SW, so am not
expecting much precip at all in Illinois. HRRR suggests isolated
showers may fire after 19z, mainly across northern Illinois.
Meanwhile, the NAM12 is completely dry. Have therefore scaled back
PoPs today, with only an isolated shower mention along/north of
I-74 this afternoon. Have also removed evening showers and gone
with a mostly clear forecast for tonight. Zone update has already
been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. SCT
to occasionally BKN diurnal clouds at 4000-5000ft this afternoon
will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies expected
overnight. The cycle will repeat on Thursday, with SCT diurnal
cloud cover once again developing by late morning/early afternoon.
Winds will be light from the NW this afternoon, then will shift to
the W/SW on Thursday.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Forecast and overall atmospheric pattern slow to change right now
as an upper low remains parked over the southern tip of Hudson
Bay...with the trof dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. 500
mb ridge over the west, and sfc high pressure building into the
Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast driven by slowly
warming temperatures, still below normal for late July, light
winds, and afternoon showers. Next chance for a slightly more
substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives on Friday, with a
wave diving into the upper trof and helping to enhance the
dynamics. Overall, very little in the forecast warranting more
than a chance/scattered mention, and not many changes expected
until the pattern breaks later in the weekend.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy afternoon skies with slight chance for some
afternoon showers and iso thunder... with the better chances to
the northeast. High temperatures upper 70s/low 80s...and overnight
lows dropping to upper 50s/near 60 with mostly clear skies. Upper
low anchored over southeastern Canada keeps the weather in a
pretty stagnant pattern and below normal temps in the Midwest.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms moving in for Friday...
as a wave rotates through the trof and enhances chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models pretty consistent with
this feature...though coverage is not expected to be widespread
just yet. High pressure dominating into the weekend as the sfc
ridge axis moves into the region. Winds remain light and variable
and dry forecast as the upper trof finally starts to progress
across into the NE. Chances for more significant weather starting
to return Tues/Wed as a more active and progressive flow sets up
across the country.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1101 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MID 80 HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PARKED OVER JAMES BAY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OVER CENTRAL WI AND IT
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT LOSES STEAM
THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN IL AND IN.
A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY SO THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BETWEEN THE LAKE BREEZE AND
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT. CAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO BELOW
500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING A TON OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY SO THINKING
THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL NOT
BE SEVERE...BUT MAY BE DOWNDRAFT DRIVEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
LIKE YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY SO EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS. SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE OUTLYING AREAS...BUT IN THE LOW 60S DOWNTOWN.
JEE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH
AN ESTABLISHED LONG WAVE...MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EACH OF THESE LOOK TO BRING SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT FOR ELONGATED CAPE
PROFILES NEAR PEAK HEATING. ALL IN ALL THESE CONTINUE TO PRESENT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
THERE CONTINUES FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON BRINGING AN UPPER/MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE SOUTHWARD FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS
SUPPORT HIGHER POPS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE AREA AND WHILE THE
MAGNITUDES OF BOTH MAY BE EXTREME /70 PERCENT PLUS/...THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED COVERAGE MORE SO THAN TODAY AND THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO DO HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. VERY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ADVERTISED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO STEER A COOL
FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH LARGE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REACHES. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO A WELL-
VERIFYING BLEND OF GUIDANCE BESIDES INCHING UP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONTAL FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-NE ARND 10 KT.
* SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A FEW TSRA ALSO PSBL.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND
IT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 9 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND IT WILL IMPACT ORD...MDW...AND GYY. NOT SURE IF THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT TO DPA SO KEPT A NW WIND AT DPA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NE ARND 10 KT BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS AS YESTERDAY...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL HAVE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT.
WINDS BACK TO WEST IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN WEST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING...SCHC SHRA LATE
IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY...CHC SHRA WITH A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SATURDAY...SCHC SHRA IN THE MORNING...CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS BECOME NORTH AROUND 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD EAST TODAY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AT
TIMES OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE MORE WEAK COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED BY WEEKS END...AT THIS
TIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF
THE DAY OVER LAND. SOME OF THESE COULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO
NEARSHORE AREAS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AS SEEN OVER WI/IL
SHORES LAST EVENING...AND PROFILES OVER LAND DO SUPPORT SOME QUICK
RACING OUTFLOWS/GUST FRONTS FROM SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO
SOMETHING FOR NEARSHORE MARINERS TO KEEP SOME TABS ON DESPITE THE
MAINLY QUIET WIND/WAVE REGIME.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
High pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
River Valley is providing mostly sunny and cool conditions to
central Illinois this morning. Main question will be whether or
not any showers will develop within the cyclonic flow pattern
aloft. 14z/9am water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning
over Hudson Bay, with short-wave trough rotating around this
feature across southern Michigan. The influence of this wave will
likely remain NE of Illinois today, with scattered showers/thunder
developing across southern Michigan/Northern Indiana this
afternoon. Upper support will be weaker further W/SW, so am not
expecting much precip at all in Illinois. HRRR suggests isolated
showers may fire after 19z, mainly across northern Illinois.
Meanwhile, the NAM12 is completely dry. Have therefore scaled back
PoPs today, with only an isolated shower mention along/north of
I-74 this afternoon. Have also removed evening showers and gone
with a mostly clear forecast for tonight. Zone update has already
been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions expected at all central Illinois TAF sites for the
next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover at 4-5 kft MSL will develop
with daytime heating. Isolated light afternoon showers are
possible...mainly KMTO-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys unlikely. After 00Z...any shower activity/cloud cover
diminishing. Winds increasing to WNW7-10 kts by 15Z...becoming
light and variable by 00Z.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Forecast and overall atmospheric pattern slow to change right now
as an upper low remains parked over the southern tip of Hudson
Bay...with the trof dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. 500
mb ridge over the west, and sfc high pressure building into the
Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast driven by slowly
warming temperatures, still below normal for late July, light
winds, and afternoon showers. Next chance for a slightly more
substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives on Friday, with a
wave diving into the upper trof and helping to enhance the
dynamics. Overall, very little in the forecast warranting more
than a chance/scattered mention, and not many changes expected
until the pattern breaks later in the weekend.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy afternoon skies with slight chance for some
afternoon showers and iso thunder... with the better chances to
the northeast. High temperatures upper 70s/low 80s...and overnight
lows dropping to upper 50s/near 60 with mostly clear skies. Upper
low anchored over southeastern Canada keeps the weather in a
pretty stagnant pattern and below normal temps in the Midwest.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms moving in for Friday...
as a wave rotates through the trof and enhances chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models pretty consistent with
this feature...though coverage is not expected to be widespread
just yet. High pressure dominating into the weekend as the sfc
ridge axis moves into the region. Winds remain light and variable
and dry forecast as the upper trof finally starts to progress
across into the NE. Chances for more significant weather starting
to return Tues/Wed as a more active and progressive flow sets up
across the country.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
218 PM CDT
FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DAILY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...WITHIN REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SERIES OF RELATIVELY MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE
OF WEAK RIPPLES PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM PROPAGATING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO MODULATE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN JUXTAPOSED ATOP
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL WARMTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WEAK/SKINNY MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CUMULUS CONGESTUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM NEAR ROCKFORD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.
CURRENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GROW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PEAK INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WANING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH ONTARIO SHORT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO
DURING PERIOD OF BETTER INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE FORCING WILL DECREASE
LAST...WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THESE DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TIED TO CONVERGENCE ZONES AS IS
THE CASE TODAY...WILL CONTINUE IN SIMILAR FASHION THURSDAY AS
WELL. OBVIOUSLY...NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AND THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS EVEN IN PLACES THAT DO. BY FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH MAY SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH A GREATER AERIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYTIME
PERIODS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH RETURNS THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 70S BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TO SLOWLY WARMING FROM UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW SUBTLE
COOL-DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS AT 10 KT BEHIND IT.
* SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A FEW TSRA PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT TODAY IS LOOKING
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING...BUT THINKING WE WILL
SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
WINDS BECOME NE ARND 10 KT BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE AT MDW AND
ORD....AND NNE AT GYY. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LAKE BREEZE
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MDW AND GYY AND MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ABOUT
ORD. WINDS SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW IN THE EVENING WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR INLAND IT TRAVELS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies are mostly clear and winds have become light. Expect these
conditions to continue overnight and into the early morning hours.
Current forecast has a good handle on this, so no update needed tonight.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight. VFR conditions
will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. A line of scattered showers
continues to move southeast through northeast IL tonight. Though
it looks like they could reach toward Champaignving they should
miss the TAF site overnight. Will not have any pcpn mentioned
at CMI at this time. Winds tomorrow will be westerly at around
10kts with scattered CU around 5kft and then dissipate again
tomorrow evening with lighter winds.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER ALONG
THE RED RIVER SOUTH OF KOUN. SEVERAL VERY WEAK TROFS RAN FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NORTHEAST OF KONL. SEVERAL WEAK
TROFS RAN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST OF KCID/KIOW. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY WEAK FOR PEAK HEATING. RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE 700MB WHICH IS PLAYING INTO THE
LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE FAR EAST AND WEST SECTIONS BEING
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED.
AFTER SUNSET...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA. INITIALLY DOWNWARD MOTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SOME VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. THUS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY
SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD
FIRE OFF NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS BY MID DAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. AS SUCH...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANGING LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
DOMINATES THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MAIN SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS IA
AND MN FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD SURGE INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH. THUS SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY... BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT...COULD SEE
SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY IS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPRESS AND CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY EVENING...THEN LOWER POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER MN
AND WI. THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN US WILL SLOWLY
FLATTEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SETTING UP WEAK...GRADUALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN
THE REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES SET UP...WILL HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
CWFA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE GULF IS PROGGED
TO BE MORE OPEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG...WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD AT CID AND BRL. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECASTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.
NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE. AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 61 82 63 / 80 30 0 0
HUTCHINSON 75 60 85 63 / 70 20 0 0
NEWTON 74 60 83 63 / 60 20 0 0
ELDORADO 75 60 83 62 / 70 20 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 62 81 63 / 90 40 20 0
RUSSELL 75 60 85 63 / 50 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 72 59 83 63 / 70 10 0 0
SALINA 80 60 88 64 / 40 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 76 60 85 63 / 60 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 76 62 81 62 / 60 50 20 0
CHANUTE 76 62 82 62 / 50 20 10 0
IOLA 76 62 82 62 / 40 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 76 62 81 62 / 50 40 20 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN
SEGMENT OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING E & WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WELL TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & A LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 80S WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) MODERATE & PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
2) RECORD COOLEST HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN WICHITA TOMORROW.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WOULD INDUCE WEAK LOWER-DECK FRONTOGENESIS FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO WESTERN OK. THE RESULTING 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK BORDER IS STRONG & WITH A COMPACT REGION OF
INCREASING LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE PANHANDLES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CERTAIN. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (ESPECIALLY OVER KICT COUNTRY). AS
SUCH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL KS WOULD BE
ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
WITH 3-HOURLY VALUES BETWEEN 3.0 & 3.5 INCHES. AS SUCH CHECKED SWING ON
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WITH THE WEAK E/W ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SINKING DUE SOUTH TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WOULD LIKEWISE GET FORCED SOUTH OF
THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOMORROW EVENING. WITH "HIGH" TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
THU-FRI:
VERY COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 7-10F BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THU & THU NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS KS. A WARMUP BEGINS ON
FRI AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF SETTLES SE ACROSS KS THEREBY INDUCING MODEST
SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NEXT WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS SLOWLY E FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
MON-TUE:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS LATE MON NIGHT & TUE
AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM THE CO/WY BORDER
TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROFFING
WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH HIGHS ~90F MON & TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 30TH:
WICHITA: 73 IN 1971
CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 70 59 82 / 20 80 30 0
HUTCHINSON 64 71 59 82 / 20 80 20 0
NEWTON 63 70 59 82 / 20 60 20 0
ELDORADO 63 70 58 82 / 20 70 20 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 64 70 60 82 / 30 90 30 10
RUSSELL 63 78 62 83 / 20 50 10 0
GREAT BEND 63 74 60 82 / 20 70 10 0
SALINA 64 79 61 84 / 20 40 10 0
MCPHERSON 63 73 60 83 / 20 60 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 63 71 60 82 / 30 50 40 10
CHANUTE 63 74 60 83 / 20 50 20 0
IOLA 62 76 60 83 / 30 40 20 0
PARSONS-KPPF 62 72 60 83 / 30 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
SEEING A LITTLE CONVECTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BEING THE RESULT OF
SOME SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER OF CONVERGENCE. APPEARS TO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL WHICH HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS RIGHT ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/VA STATE LINE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...AND THE OCCASIONAL CELL THAT
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO KY WEAKENS QUICKLY. BEING OF SUCH AN ISOLD
NATURE...DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITH A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST PRODUCT.
ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THIN CI CANOPY
HAS DONE LITTLE TO PREVENT A RAPID DROP OFF OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE BEING
PICKED UP NOW AT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN STATIONS. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH AND MAY
EVEN TEND TO CAUSE A BIT OF REBOUNDING WHERE CEILINGS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME.
BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL BE ROLLING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ANY FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...EXACT
TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND GUIDANCE IS
QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS. THEREFORE STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING DECENTLY WELL OVER
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR NOW...LEAVING ROOM/TIME FOR FINE
TUNING OF ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE/S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME.
BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL BE ROLLING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ANY FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...EXACT
TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND GUIDANCE IS
QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS. THEREFORE STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING DECENTLY WELL OVER
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR NOW...LEAVING ROOM/TIME FOR FINE
TUNING OF ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE/S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.
AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
FOG WILL LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TO 16Z. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT PRESENT AT KLAN. THIS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE STORMS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT THIS POINT.
AFTER THE MORNING FOG...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
800 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...
AFTER A HOT SUMMER AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY SETTLING BACK DOWN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP OFF...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. BY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S. A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE MILK/MISSOURI RIVERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER MUCH
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS ALREADY DIMINISHING WITH THE
GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NEVERTHELESS DECIDED IT BEST TO
PLAY IT SAFE AND INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW HAS DISSIPATED...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN REACHED...AND SOME CU AND WEAK STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE SCATTERING QPF AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LEFT POPS MAINLY AS IS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS TO REFLECT THIS.
FRIDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BIT COOLER AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE OUT
WEST...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS. NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED
HOWEVER WITH UPPER FLOW STILL PRETTY WEAK AND DRY INVERTED V
LOOKING SOUNDINGS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY ALSO HAS SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP...MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER
FLOW POP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT IN CENTRAL MONTANA...SO
PLACED POPS ALONG THE WESTERN CWA BORDER IN CASE STORMS CARRY
FURTHER EAST. LIKE THE REST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE SHORT
TERM...IT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH WEAK
SYNOPTIC AND STATIONARY FRONT FORCING...SO EXPECT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR POPS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
SATURDAY. BARNWELL
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NOW BEGINS TO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...AT LEAST SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING. BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN ANCHORED OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN STATES REGION BECOMES SUBDUED AND SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS LEAVES NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE
OVER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SNEAK INTO OUR CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO THE REPEATED SMALL-SCALE...EMBEDDED...SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. UPDATED
THE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE THE RELATIVELY BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND. BUT STILL...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AT BEST AS SURFACE BOUNDARIES FOR VERTICAL
FORCING WILL BE NOWHERE TO BE FOUND AND THE ONLY LIFTING
MECHANISM SEEMS TO BE DAILY SUMMER TIME SURFACE HEATING. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS NORTHEAST
MONTANA IN A WEAK QUASI- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON SUNDAY THAT
WILL DRIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. A MIXTURE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES... EITHER PACIFIC AND/OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS FORECASTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MONTANA
WITH THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY... IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR.
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND
THE REGION THROUGH 09Z. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.
THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 89 63 89 / 20 10 20 30
DULCE........................... 53 78 53 79 / 40 10 40 50
CUBA............................ 55 81 55 82 / 50 60 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 59 87 58 86 / 20 10 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 55 80 54 79 / 30 50 50 50
GRANTS.......................... 57 83 57 82 / 40 40 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 58 81 57 80 / 30 50 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 60 88 59 87 / 20 20 30 40
CHAMA........................... 48 74 47 75 / 60 60 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 75 56 75 / 60 30 50 60
PECOS........................... 54 72 53 72 / 70 50 50 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 73 51 73 / 70 20 50 70
RED RIVER....................... 43 64 44 63 / 70 50 50 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 68 43 68 / 70 40 50 70
TAOS............................ 52 74 52 75 / 40 10 50 60
MORA............................ 51 70 50 70 / 70 50 50 70
ESPANOLA........................ 60 80 58 80 / 50 10 50 40
SANTA FE........................ 58 75 57 75 / 50 20 50 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 78 59 79 / 40 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 82 63 81 / 30 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 84 66 83 / 30 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 86 61 85 / 40 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 86 62 85 / 40 10 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 86 64 84 / 40 10 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 86 65 85 / 40 10 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 66 89 66 86 / 30 10 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 80 58 77 / 40 30 50 60
TIJERAS......................... 58 79 59 79 / 40 20 50 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 82 56 81 / 60 30 50 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 73 57 73 / 60 30 50 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 77 59 76 / 60 30 50 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 82 62 80 / 20 10 40 50
RUIDOSO......................... 52 74 53 72 / 50 40 50 70
CAPULIN......................... 53 70 54 70 / 60 30 50 60
RATON........................... 55 73 56 73 / 60 30 50 50
SPRINGER........................ 56 74 58 75 / 60 30 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 72 54 71 / 60 40 50 60
CLAYTON......................... 56 77 59 78 / 40 5 20 20
ROY............................. 56 74 59 73 / 60 20 40 50
CONCHAS......................... 61 80 63 80 / 40 10 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 79 62 77 / 50 20 40 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 81 62 82 / 30 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 57 78 60 79 / 40 5 20 20
PORTALES........................ 59 80 61 81 / 40 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 80 64 78 / 40 10 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 65 84 67 83 / 40 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 61 78 63 75 / 50 20 40 50
ELK............................. 58 74 58 70 / 60 40 50 70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND
ONLY MNIOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AN POPS TO CARRY US INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LOOKING AT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON TAP
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...LOCALLY MILDER NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ALMOST ANYWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRIOR DICUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY
DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING BASED ON RADAR
INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE
THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
(43 MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.
SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE
WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT
ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.
SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND FRIDAY...THEN SHOULD
STALL OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SEVERAL THINGS HAVE TRANSPIRED (OR IS IT
CONSPIRED?) OVER THE FEW HOURS TO CHANGE THE FORECAST PRETTY
DRAMATICALLY. A MOIST CONVEYOR ORIGINATING FROM THE EDGE OF THE GULF
STREAM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS FEEDING INTO GEORGETOWN
COUNTY AND HAS ITS EYES FIXED ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR/PEE DEE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. JUST GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRAJECTORY ON RADAR
THIS MOISTURE IS ENCOUNTERING RATHER SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AS IT MOVES UP INTO THE IN-SITU COLD DOME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF ONLY 1.55 INCHES...AMSU + SSM/I BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE DATA HAD A RELATIVE MAXIMUM
ACROSS THE SANTEE RIVER INTO THE PEE DEE REGION OF 1.9 INCHES. THIS
IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL BAND OBSERVED ON RADAR. I HAVE
INCREASED AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL FORECASTS TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES
ACROSS FLORENCE AND MARION NORTHWARD INTO DILLON AND BENNETTSVILLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ISOLATED AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO
2.5 INCHES. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY FORECAST
POPS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR ARE 100 PERCENT.
THE HRRR IS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT
SHOWS THAT ONCE THIS HEAVY RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF THE SC COAST MOVING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL SE NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID
LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST AS 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
WILL EXTEND WEST...PUSHING FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST INTO THE
REGION. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...TAPPING GULF MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW...TAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WILL
PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AND ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...ATYPICALLY WELL DEFINED (FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR) MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY.
DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL
THEN BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL PVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS
MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
IT BEING SUCH A CLOUDY DAY THAT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY MANAGES TO
DEVELOP SAVE FOR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE PLAYERS
ALL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE HEADING INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH ALL OF
THEM WEAKEN. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH POPS AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON TEMPS. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT STILL
ONES THAT ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS...BUT ALSO SENDS ITS REMAINING VORT CENTER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS THE GFS STRAIGHTENS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WE ALSO MAY SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
CONTRAST TO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MAY THUS BE A
DAY WHERE WE TRANSITION TO MORE SCATTERED AND DEEPER CONVECTION
ESP IF TEMPS START BOUNCING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK SEASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE OF A DRIER
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...OR IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND. TEMPO PERIODS OF
MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE E-ESE AROUND 10KT HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KFLO/KLBT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SHRA/TEMPO MVFR THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHRA/TEMPO MVFR WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS KMYR BY
MIDNIGHT THEN SPREAD TO KCRE AND KILM OVERNIGHT.
SHRA/VCTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KFLO/KLBT IN THE LATE MORNING AND NEAR
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
SAT THROUGH MON AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...THE PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT OFFSHORE HAS PUSHED WIND
SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KNOTS ALONG THE HORRY
COUNTY SC COAST EARLIER. THIS IS STRONGER THAN ANY MODEL
INDICATED...AND THIS MOST-RECENT FORECAST UPDATE IS BASED MORE ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THAN ANY COMPUTER MODEL. EAST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND 2-3 AM AS THE FRONT GETS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE BAGGIER PRESSURE GRADIENT
SURROUNDING THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WITH 5 FEET SHOWING UP AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH CORMP BUOY. THIS IS A FULL 3 FEET HIGHER THAN FORECASTS JUST
SIX HOURS AGO AND SHOWS HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED
HERE. AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH 3 AM FOR ALL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE MOVES TO THE COAST FRI THEN PUSHES
ONSHORE SAT. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION DURING FRI NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT SHARPENS AS
BOUNDARY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SPEEDS FRI NIGHT MAY TOUCH
15 KT BUT OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD INCREASE TO A
SOLID 3 FT GIVEN THE PROLONGED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. WIND CHOP WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 11 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH POKES A BIT WESTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN FLOW BY A
FEW KNOTS AND ALSO A SLIGHT VEER FROM S TO SW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
100 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK. A COASTAL FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...ACROSS EASTERN PENDER AND NEW HANOVER
COUNTIES THIS WAS THE LITTLE AIRMASS THAT COULD! DESPITE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY ONLY AMOUNTING TO 1000 J/KG...SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS DROPPED 0.59 INCHES AT THE ILM AIRPORT...0.27 INCHES IN
THE KINGS GRANT NEIGHBORHOOD A FEW MILES TO THE EAST...0.25 INCHES
IN SURF CITY...AND 0.17 INCHES IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WET GROUND HAS
PRIMED THIS AREA FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH
AMERICA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
SEASONAL MEAN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT -2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 800 MB PRODUCED A
MODERATE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700 EFFECTIVELY CAPPED OFF THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS...AT LEAST UP UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS AGO. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY SEABREEZE WINDS BLOWING ONSHORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NC FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE 21Z RUC SHOWS UNCAPPED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY
SUBSIDES...HOWEVER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WE WILL PROBABLY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
CUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED 150 MILES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAINING UNSEASONABLY COOL DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH INCLUDE:
61 IN WILMINGTON...1914
63 IN FLORENCE...1997
62 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...1954.
(NOTE: THESE RECORDS ARE CORRECTED FROM THE 300 PM DISCUSSION)
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A FLATTENED 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY FOR WED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS RETROGRADES A BIT ON THU...PWATS INCREASE IN THE AFTN HOURS
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE REMNANT
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY ALSO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE
THU...FURTHER MOISTENING THE COLUMN WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY
WED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST ATTM GIVEN THE LACK
OF A SEA BREEZE DUE TO WEAK LAND/SEA TEMP CONTRASTS. THU SEEMS LIKE
THE BETTER CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP POPS THU AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
AND EASTERLY SFC FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. WED NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FINALLY SEES THE DEEP
CUTOFF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OPEN UP AND RETREAT. DEEP
TROUGHINESS LINGERS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AS THE FLOW SPLITS
WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY REGIONS. HERE IN THE CAROLINAS THIS LEADS TO A DEEP
MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA PRONE
TO AT LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL SCATTERING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM
A NEARLY COASTAL POSITION ON FRIDAY TO WEST OF THE AREA/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BOLSTER THE LL MOISTURE AND SHOULD
YIELD AND UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE WEEKEND TRANSPIRES.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED IF NOT WASHED OUT
ALTOGETHER BY MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
RAIN CHANCES...BUT WOULD LIKE TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH OPTIMISM AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO STILL
SERVE AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOCI. THE DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE WEAKENING. THE BETTER BET FOR A SLIGHTLY QUIETER FORECAST
COMES ON TUESDAY WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS NO LONGER HAS ANY
LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE WESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ROGUE SHRA
EARLIER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ILM TERMINAL WITH MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SKC. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST ISSUANCE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REDUCED
VSBY FROM BR ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT TO YIELD CALM TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...WITH
THE DAYS INSOLATION THE FA WILL OBSERVE SCT/BKN 5K TO 10K FOOT
CEILINGS. WINDS DURING DAYTIME WED WILL START OUT NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT...VEERING TO THE E AND SE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL TERMS DUE TO THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE LOWERED CEILINGS WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR NOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
HAVE CLEARED THE COAST AND ARE MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY BECAME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AN HOUR AGO BUT TRENDS SUGGEST IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED
DOWN TO CAPE FEAR...AND WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SC COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD GIVE US
A PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON`S
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND ITS SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
SEAS CONSIST LARGELY OF A 1-2 FOOT 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...PLUS
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY WINDS CLOSER TO SHORE.
COMBINED SEAS ARE AVERAGING 2-3 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR WHERE THE SWELL IS HAVING THE EASIEST TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
RADAR REVEALS SEVERAL SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DEVELOPING NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE BOTH DAYS...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ250 WHERE SEAS WILL BECOME AROUND
3 FT ON THU. AS THE REMNANT FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE LIFTS BACK
TOWARD THE COAST...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE WATERS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WITH A BOUNDARY STALLED VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT
RIGHT OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY THE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE WINDS ACT TO LESSEN THE GRADIENT IN WAVE
HEIGHT ACROSS THE 20NM WIDTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES SO A GENERAL 3 FT
SEA STATE EXPECTED...A COMBINATION OF THE WIND WAVE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. OVER THE WEEKEND THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRAW
INLAND...REACHING THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL
LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE A VEERING TO SE OR EVEN S AT TIMES. LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND NO
APPRECIABLE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE NORMAL NEARSHORE WIND
INCREASE AND CHOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MJC/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
RADAR INDICATES A FEW TINY SHOWERS CONTINUE AROUND THE
REGION...AND WITH THAT WILL EXTEND THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY ISOLD SHOWERS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z. MLCAPE IS 1000-2000 J/KG...BUT FORCING IS VERY
WEAK. THERE COULD BE A CLAP OF THUNDER...BUT SO FAR NO CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING DETECTED...SO WILL KEEP AS JUST SHOWERS. 20% POPS
MAY EVEN BE OVERKILL FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT PROBABLY BETTER TO
HAVE SOMETHING MENTIONED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
INTERESTING TO SEE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO DID FORM AT MID
AFTN BUT IN AREAS NOT EARLIER ANTICIPATED. DID UPDATE A SHORT TIME
AGO TO INCLUDE AN ISOLD SHOWER MENTION FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
WALHALLA-PARK RIVER AND SOUTH OF FARGO BUT THEY ARE WEAK. CU FIELD
IN THIS AREA ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT LESS SHARP AND MORE FUZZY SO
THESE FEW SHOWERS MAY YET DISSIPATE. DID KEEP 20 POP IN THRU 00Z.
OTHERWISE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. SOME MODELS ESP THE NAM
WANT TO KEEP GENERATING PRECIP AFTER 06Z IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. NOT
SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THAT. SO DID LEAVE IT DRY. FRIDAY WILL SEE A
BIT MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO MOVE SOUTH AS CAPES REMAIN WELL BELOW
1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE ZERO...UNLIKE TODAY`S
NEGATIVE 2. THIS AIRMASS THAT MIGHT MOVE IN IS IN EASTERN
MANITOBA-FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO TODAY INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SASK/MANITOBA
AND INTO NRN RRV/NRN MN AND WILL KEEP IDEA OF A LOW POP.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS MAINTAINS AN INCREASE IN PRECIP SUNDAY. FOR TIME
BEING WILL KEEP SLIGHT-CHC POPS...HIGHEST IN NW FCST AREA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THIS
WEEKEND AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTHERN TIER WILL BECOME MORE
WEST NORTHWESTERLY...POSSIBLY ENDING A LONG DURATION OF DRY
WEATHER. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
PERSISTENCE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED CU DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REQUIRED INCREASING SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE FROM REGINA TO WINNIPEG SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NEWLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THEREFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE
IS TOO SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN...HOWEVER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGRY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NWRLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKACHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THERFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
513 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
256 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
131 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
547 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HINTON TO
KINGFISHER TO GUTHRIE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT ALTER AT
THIS TIME.
APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE DECREASING
DUE TO PERHAPS CAPPING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.
MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL LINE.
WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS NECESSARY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND WE AGREED THAT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE MURRAY... JOHNSTON... COAL AND ATOKA COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST SIGNAL OF THE QPF AXIS IS LOCATED. ON THE
OTHER SIDE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LOW AFTER TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 78 64 84 / 90 30 0 0
HOBART OK 64 79 63 85 / 40 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 79 66 86 / 40 20 10 0
GAGE OK 60 79 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 80 61 84 / 70 20 0 0
DURANT OK 67 76 63 82 / 80 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ018>020-
024>032-040>043-047-048.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ012-013.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL LIFT N THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE CASCADES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE LOCATED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT JUST
OFFSHORE AND OVER THE COAST RANGE NEAR NEWPORT. UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADD SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST RANGE. HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT TIMING IS MUCH TOO LATE COMPARED TO CURRENT
RADAR PICTURE. MODELS SUGGEST BEST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
OVER THE CASCADES BUT COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AS HINTED AT BY A NUMBER OF MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO UPDATES APPEARED NECESSARY. /BOWEN
MODELS IN GENERAL INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
OF THE REGION FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
INDICATED IN MODELS TO FOLLOW SAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUN...BUT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SW TO
WESTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO RELEGATE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MORE
TO THE CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON...AND LIMITED MORE TO THE OREGON
CASCADES SAT AND SUN.
THE LACK OF ANY KIND OF MARINE PUSH LAST NIGHT WAS LIKELY RELATED TO
THE SHORTWAVE SITTING OFF THE S OREGON AND N CA COAST. AS THE WAVE
LIFTS N TONIGHT AND FRI THOUGH EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PICK UP
A BIT TONIGHT SUGGESTING MORE MARINE CLOUDS ON THE COAST...AND AN
EVEN BETTER PUSH FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
PUSHING INLAND BY SAT MORNING...AS WELL AS A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
BY SAT. A SIMILAR SITUATION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SUGGESTS AGAIN SOME
MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND FOR SUN MORNING...AND HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
A BIT COOLER SUN BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION
UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK ITS WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
THUNDER FROM 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR
FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. COASTAL SITES MAY SEE
SOME VICINITY MVFR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. /27
KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z-18Z FRIDAY.
/NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...BUT DECIDED TO DROP THE CENTRAL OREGON OUTER WATERS WHERE
MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERACHIEVING ALL DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.
NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS.
/NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 10
NM.
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
714 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE
THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.
THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
914 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AIDING IN
ABUNDANT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WESTERN NC. THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN AL/GA PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING/S WX/POP GRIDS
WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL STILL BE ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS...NE TN AND SW VA OVERNIGHT.
THE 22Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL OCCURRING
IN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. UPDATED ZONE
FORECAST WILL BE OUT SOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 84 68 85 / 20 40 40 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 80 66 83 / 40 50 30 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 82 66 84 / 20 40 30 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 77 61 81 / 60 70 40 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
45/23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
40
MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 73 90 73 / 60 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 79 89 79 / 40 30 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
40
MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 89 71 90 71 / 40 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 73 90 73 / 50 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 79 89 79 / 30 30 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AREAS
AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800 PM. THE
OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WES VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A
STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500 PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE
RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO...AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK
WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND
THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS
AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VIA LAPS DATA...WEAK INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...WITHIN THE REGION WHERE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WAS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY WAS
JUST WEST OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. BOTH THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-
ARW MODELS SHOW THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GAINING
INCREASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION. THERE
ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ROBUST ALONG THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS OF THE
REGION...SOME WEAK INDICATION THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARDS TWO OR THREE DEGREES THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST HAD
BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM COMPARED TO REALITY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
DEW POINTS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL
INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WAS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICK DISSIPATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SO THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY
1100 AM. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
MORE ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE CANADIAN POLAR
TROUGH FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SRN WI ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF IT. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE RESIDE OVER THE REGION VIA THE UPPER
WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BUT PROBABLY LESSER COVERAGE THAN
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-110 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WED AM ALONG WITH LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SRN WI. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN
COOLED AIR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
CUMULUS CONGESTUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR WED
AFT AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER SE CANADA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.
THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.
WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.
MARINE...
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1155 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. SPOTTY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...CONTDVD...AND ERN MTS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE REMOVED MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR THE PLAINS AS THE PROBABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
E OF THE MTS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION AND HEADED SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO TELLER
COUNTY OR CROSS THE SANGRES...THEY WEAKEN QUICKLY. COOL STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PERSISTENT CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR....WHICH HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE FROM THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY EASTWARD...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION WHICH MOVES INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE HRRR RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER STORMS STAYING FURTHER WEST OF
THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
REACHING WALDO CANYON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS STORMS
WILL WEAKEN. APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE I25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THE UPSLOPE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN OVER TELLER COUNTY. LATEST
NAM STILL KEEPS PW OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTHWARD. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. STILL APPEARS
TO BE CAPPED FURTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS BY THE KANSAS BORDER.
OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOSTLY STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON
STORMS. - -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...PUSHING BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO NM OVERNIGHT. WILL END POPS MOST AREAS LATE
FRI EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW POPS PAST 06Z FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NM BORDER. FOR SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM UTAH INTO WRN CO...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD. MAX
TEMPS WILL FINALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY
AUG...THOUGH EVEN WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY NOT REACH
90F. HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD SUN...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-25 LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN EVENING. MAXES SUN
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH HIGH OVERHEAD...AND A FEW 90S MAY
FINALLY REAPPEAR ON THE PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM MON WHILE
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING...SHOULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN UPTURN IN PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY OVER NRN CO TUE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COULD AID IN CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUE
EVENING. DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WED/THU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM MON/TUE MOST LOCATIONS...THEN
GRADUALLY COOL WED/THU AS UPPER HIGH RETREATS AND COOLER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT FG OR BR FROM FORMING ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
PRESENT. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN THERE MAY BE A SECOND ROUND OF STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS AFTER 20Z IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 50...BUT
ISOLD- SCT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1123 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE HRRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREEN RIVER. NO OTHER MODEL HAVE SHOWED
THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH THE RAP KEPT THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED ACROSS
SW COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO SW COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER /0.25/ TO ONE HALF /0.50/ INCH. WITH
THE AIR MASS STAYING RELATIVELY MOIST...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THE HRRR AND SHORT TERM TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF BY 15Z THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HEATING COMMENCED. THINKING FOG WAS A RESULT OF THE
SATURATED GROUND FROM RAIN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. STORMS WERE QUICK TO FIRE ONCE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
CLEARED AROUND 17Z WITH STORMS STAYING CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SAN JUANS AS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WAS
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS IN WHICH STORMS DRIFTED OFF THE SAN
JUANS JUST BEFORE 18Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AROUND AN INCH
ON THE 12Z GJT SOUNDING THIS MORNING SO STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND TO GENERATE STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. BEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70 AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WITH LESS
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DRIFT INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
MUDSLIDE ALONG HIGHWAY 133 NORTH OF MCCLURE PASS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF A STORM THAT DID NOT APPEAR THAT STRONG ON RADAR.
LOCALIZED MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS IN SOME OF THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT.
LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS
SHIFTING WESTWARD BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 0.75 INCHES ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMTS NEAR AN INCH TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS. MUCH LESS MOISTURE EVIDENT ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO WITH 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES. THE GFS INDICATES A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOPPING THE RIDGE. THIS IS
INDICATED BY SOME VORT MAXES AND A 55 KT JET STREAK THAT MOVES
THROUGH. THE NAM IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THIS
MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AS GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND REMAINING MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE. LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ARE FAVORED
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. STORMS WILL HAVE DECENT MOTION WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS. STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES OF 0.5 TO THE NORTH AND
0.75 TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY...
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD AND A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED. PW DROPS
TO AROUND 0.5 INCH ACROSS THE NORTH/0.8 INCH OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE NOTED...THUS A GENERAL DOWN TURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BACK TO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY OPENING THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
STRONGER WAVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND LEAD
TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS INDICATED
BEHIND THE TUESDAY DISTURBANCE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBUILDS
TO OUR WEST. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT LESS WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST THREAT FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER SW COLORADO.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA
WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SKY COVER
IN SE GEORGIA AND SOME WINDS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY
REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UVM. THE LATEST SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND 4KM-WRF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS SEVERAL ENHANCED CONFLUENCE ZONES
WILL SETUP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WITH MEAN STEERING TRAJECTORIES FAVORING THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AS 850-700 HPA WINDS VEER WITH TIME. PWATS SURGING
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES...ENHANCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ATOP THE HYBRID WEDGE
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UP PER GOING SHORT TERM AND
MODEL TRENDS...SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT--HIGHEST
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...MOST OF WHICH HAS FALLEN WITH THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WITH THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PRECAUTIONARY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO SHIFT JUST
INLAND DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OFFSHORE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS
HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY WHILE STRONG
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE...LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HIGHS EXCEEDING THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING NEARING DAYBREAK
IF NOT SOONER. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP AND RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. IFR CIGS LURK JUST OFF
THE WEST IN SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR AT 0530Z. AS A RESULT...THE
TAF INDICATES TEMPO SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE 10-14Z
TIME FRAME. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WITH AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BEING TEMPORARY
DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SHIFT WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY GROUND FOG OR EVEN
SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS GA WATERS...A WEAKER
GRADIENT CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM EAST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW
FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
049-050-052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
A SHORTWAVE AROUND 700 MB IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SW IA MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST IA...NE MO INTO W CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING GOING. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT ZERO...MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT PRIMARILY WEAK SHOWERS AND WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY...WHICH
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...POINT TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER
MINS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENT FORECAST LOWS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER ALONG
THE RED RIVER SOUTH OF KOUN. SEVERAL VERY WEAK TROFS RAN FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NORTHEAST OF KONL. SEVERAL WEAK
TROFS RAN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST OF KCID/KIOW. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY WEAK FOR PEAK HEATING. RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE 700MB WHICH IS PLAYING INTO THE
LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE FAR EAST AND WEST SECTIONS BEING
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED.
AFTER SUNSET...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA. INITIALLY DOWNWARD MOTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SOME VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. THUS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY
SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD
FIRE OFF NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS BY MID DAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. AS SUCH...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANGING LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
DOMINATES THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MAIN SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS IA
AND MN FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD SURGE INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH. THUS SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY... BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT...COULD SEE
SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY IS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPRESS AND CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY EVENING...THEN LOWER POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER MN
AND WI. THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN US WILL SLOWLY
FLATTEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SETTING UP WEAK...GRADUALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN
THE REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES SET UP...WILL HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
CWFA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE GULF IS PROGGED
TO BE MORE OPEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
WEAK SHOWERS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES...MAY BE IN THE BRL VICINITY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
AGAIN LEAD TO MORNING GROUND FOG...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BOTH CID AND BRL. AT BRL...REPORTED
VISIBILITY MAY BE AFFECTED AT TIMES BY GRAVEL ROAD DUST IN THE
MORNING...MUCH AS IT WAS THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL AGAIN BE
HAZY ALOFT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF THICK HIGH ALTITUDE SMOKE STREAMING SOUTH OUT OF WILDFIRES
IN NORTHERN CANADA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE LOOK TO FEW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Will be monitoring the patchy and shallow dense fog across much of
the area again this morning. See no reason why it wouldn`t be
similar to yesterday`s development.
A sharper mid/upper level trough will develop within the broad
cyclonic flow over the region through tonight, but the 00Z models
are a bit weaker and farther east with it compared to yesterday`s
runs. It will push just east of the area by Saturday evening.
In the low-levels, weak warm advection is noted within the KPAH
VAD wind profile, but the surface pressure pattern is very flat. A
minor push of surface high pressure into the area is expected in
the wake of the upper trough late Saturday into Sunday.
The weak warm advection over southeast Missouri may result in some
isolated shower activity this morning. The NAM soundings in western
portions of southeast Missouri indicate a shallow layer of
instability based around 7kft, and the HRRR develops showers
northward into that area from the Boot Heel region and northeast
Arkansas through the morning. The soundings dry up by 18Z, but as
the mid/upper trough develops southward toward our region, a small
chance of deep convection exists across northern portions of
southern Illinois in the late afternoon and possibly into the
early evening. If a storm develops it should be short-lived and
rather weak.
With the upper trough over the eastern half of the region
Saturday, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be
expected generally along and east of the Mississippi River. Once
again any storms should be short-lived and rather weak.
As for temperatures, the consensus of rather tightly grouped guidance
looks pretty good through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday Night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
High Pressure aloft dominates the WFO PAH forecast area through 12z
Thursday. effectively suppressing convection across the region.
Between 18z Wednesday and 18z Thursday, the latest 00z Friday medium
range model guidance begin to differ sharply in the position of a
deepening shortwave in the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains region.
This significantly impacts the rapidly evolving baroclinic zone to
the northwest of the WFO PAH forecast area. The ECMWF sets up a warm
advection flow with convection being developed along a warm front
developing over the Tri-State region (Southwest IN, Northwest
Kentucky, Southeast Illinois. The GFS keeps the WFO PAH forecast
area in the warm sector ahead of the impressed warm and cold fronts.
By Thursday, the movement and deepening of the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains low continues to differ sharply with the
GFS/ECMWF/NAM guidance in locations and to a lesser degree timing of
upstream convection. Regardless of the latest solution, slowed down
the onset of convection into the area into Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, the east-southeast movement and deepening of the
Upper Midwest/Northern Plains shortwave transitions into an upper Low
over the Great Lakes by late Friday night. Although there is some
initial concern on the timing of the precipitation into the WFO PAH
CWA, this becomes a moot point Thursday into Friday as the
baroclinic zone becomes stretched across the area, prolonging rain
chances across the area. In fact, several of the recent model runs
are consistent in keeping higher than normal PoPs/Weather in place
during this time period.
Therefore, PoPs and Weather have been included for the period from
next Thursday into Friday. All other forecast changes minor, with
the exception of those sensible weather elements impacted by the
forecast convection.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 632 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
Conditions will be primarily VFR over the next 24 hours. Patchy fog
may restrict visibilities late tonight, especially at KCGI and KPAH.
The presence of an upper level trough will keep a scattering of VFR
clouds around through the period. Winds will be light and variable
tonight then northeast around 5 knots Friday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. IT MAY NEED SOME FURTHER SLOWING DOWN BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL DATA AVAILABLE. THE UNCERTAINTY HAS REALLY
INCREASED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL WAIT AND SEE THE NEW ECMWF BEFORE
FINALIZING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
SEEING A LITTLE CONVECTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BEING THE RESULT OF
SOME SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER OF CONVERGENCE. APPEARS TO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL WHICH HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS RIGHT ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/VA STATE LINE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...AND THE OCCASIONAL CELL THAT
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO KY WEAKENS QUICKLY. BEING OF SUCH AN ISOLD
NATURE...DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITH A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST PRODUCT.
ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THIN CI CANOPY
HAS DONE LITTLE TO PREVENT A RAPID DROP OFF OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE BEING
PICKED UP NOW AT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN STATIONS. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH AND MAY
EVEN TEND TO CAUSE A BIT OF REBOUNDING WHERE CEILINGS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS. THE ONLY TAF STATION
THAT IS IN DANGER OF IFR OR LOWER IS SME. THEY IS A ZERO SPREAD
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ALREADY...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. AT THE OTHER TAF STATIONS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
SOME STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT OF
THE VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY
TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STORMS IF THE MOVE ACROSS A TAF STATION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MINOR THREAT
OF A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...
ALOFT: STAGNANT NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINOR
UNDULATION /SHORTWAVE TROF/ ON THE TROPOPAUSE ALONG THE MT-ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS SUSTAINING OVERNIGHT TSTMS.
THIS WAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP SE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEB TONIGHT.
SURFACE: JUST AS YESTERDAY EXPANSIVE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRES
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH A LARGELY BAROTROPIC
REGIME IN PLACE. AS YESTERDAYS WEAK SFC LOW FILLS AND DISAPPEARS
TODAY...THE NEXT WEAK LOW OVER MT WILL SLOWLY SLIP DOWN THE SD/WY
BORDER THRU TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. LOW TEMPS OF 55-62F
WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
WE HAVE NOTED A COUPLE SHWRS AND EVEN A TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL SD BETWEEN 2-3 AM. THIS IS A BIT BOTHERSOME AS I HAVE THE
FCST DRY DURING THE TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE TWO
RUNS THAT BRING A FADING SHWR OR TWO DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAY SHIFT TO ENSURE THEY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH SOME STRAY PATCHES OF CIRRUS OF ALTOCU
OCCASIONALLY FLOATING THRU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND YESTERDAYS
DEPARTING TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SUPPORT A DRY
FCST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WAS NOT PLEASED WITH ANY OF WHAT THE GUIDANCE
OFFERED. YESTERDAYS HIGHS /85-92F/ WERE 3-5F HIGHER THAN THIS FCSTR
ANTICIPATED AND YET NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NOTHING
NEAR THAT...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS BEING ABOUT THE SAME. THE 06Z
RAP WAS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND I BLENDED IT WITH THE
OBSERVED TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DO WELL WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN.
USED STRAIGHT MAV DEWPOINTS AT 21Z TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOWEST
RH VS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN SD DOWN INTO THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW.
TONIGHT: TURNING P/CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS DRIFTS
INTO THE FCST AREA. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ROAMING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH MLCAPE NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. CINH REMAINS IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. SO IT MAY TAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN
ANY STORMS THAT THREATEN FROM THE NW.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN VIA THE 03Z/SREF WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN A STRAY SHWR OR
TSTM WONT MAKE IT HERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...QPF FIELDS FROM
VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO
TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND/OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WHICH WAS INHERITED...WITH THE HOPES THAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS HEADING INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. N WIND 5 KTS OR LESS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
FRI: VFR SKC. NNE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 17 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
FRI EVE: VFR SKC...BUT SOME SCT 25K FT CIRRUS COULD INVADE TOWARD
05Z. NNE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 01Z AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE UNDER
5 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PRELIMINARY FINAL NUMBERS ARE IN FOR JULY:
HASTINGS
TEMP 73.6 3.5F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 1.48 2.26 BELOW NORMAL
GRAND ISLAND
TEMP 73.4 2.8F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.19 1.21 BELOW NORMAL
ORD
TEMP 70.1 4.3F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.07 0.90 BELOW NORMAL
KEARNEY
TEMP 73.0 1.7F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 0.13 3.15 BELOW NORMAL
THE MONTHLY SUMMARIES WILL BE OUT LATER TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IS JULY
WAS COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MINOR THREAT
OF A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...
ALOFT: STAGNANT NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINOR
UNDULATION /SHORTWAVE TROF/ ON THE TROPOPAUSE ALONG THE MT-ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS SUSTAINING OVERNIGHT TSTMS.
THIS WAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP SE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEB TONIGHT.
SURFACE: JUST AS YESTERDAY EXPANSIVE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRES
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH A LARGELY BAROTROPIC
REGIME IN PLACE. AS YESTERDAYS WEAK SFC LOW FILLS AND DISAPPEARS
TODAY...THE NEXT WEAK LOW OVER MT WILL SLOWLY SLIP DOWN THE SD/WY
BORDER THRU TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. LOW TEMPS OF 55-62F
WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
WE HAVE NOTED A COUPLE SHWRS AND EVEN A TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL SD BETWEEN 2-3 AM. THIS IS A BIT BOTHERSOME AS I HAVE THE
FCST DRY DURING THE TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE TWO
RUNS THAT BRING A FADING SHWR OR TWO DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAY SHIFT TO ENSURE THEY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH SOME STRAY PATCHES OF CIRRUS OF ALTOCU
OCCASIONALLY FLOATING THRU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND YESTERDAYS
DEPARTING TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SUPPORT A DRY
FCST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WAS NOT PLEASED WITH ANY OF WHAT THE GUIDANCE
OFFERED. YESTERDAYS HIGHS /85-92F/ WERE 3-5F HIGHER THAN THIS FCSTR
ANTICIPATED AND YET NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NOTHING
NEAR THAT...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS BEING ABOUT THE SAME. THE 06Z
RAP WAS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND I BLENDED IT WITH THE
OBSERVED TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DO WELL WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN.
USED STRAIGHT MAV DEWPOINTS AT 21Z TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOWEST
RH VS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN SD DOWN INTO THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW.
TONIGHT: TURNING P/CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS DRIFTS
INTO THE FCST AREA. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ROAMING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH MLCAPE NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. CINH REMAINS IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. SO IT MAY TAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN
ANY STORMS THAT THREATEN FROM THE NW.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN VIA THE 03Z/SREF WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN A STRAY SHWR OR
TSTM WONT MAKE IT HERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...QPF FIELDS FROM
VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO
TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND/OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WHICH WAS INHERITED...WITH THE HOPES THAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS HEADING INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. N WIND 5 KTS OR LESS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
FRI: VFR SKC. NNE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 17 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
FRI EVE: VFR SKC...BUT SOME SCT 25K FT CIRRUS COULD INVADE TOWARD
05Z. NNE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 01Z AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE UNDER
5 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...THEN
SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
GOOD RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE TAP SEEMS
TO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARDS. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SEVERAL THINGS HAVE TRANSPIRED (OR IS IT CONSPIRED?) OVER THE FEW
HOURS TO CHANGE THE FORECAST PRETTY DRAMATICALLY. A MOIST CONVEYOR
ORIGINATING FROM THE EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST IS FEEDING INTO GEORGETOWN COUNTY AND HAS ITS EYES
FIXED ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR/PEE DEE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
JUST GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRAJECTORY ON RADAR THIS MOISTURE IS
ENCOUNTERING RATHER SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS IT MOVES UP
INTO THE IN-SITU COLD DOME IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF ONLY 1.55 INCHES...AMSU + SSM/I BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE DATA HAD A RELATIVE MAXIMUM
ACROSS THE SANTEE RIVER INTO THE PEE DEE REGION OF 1.9 INCHES. THIS
IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL BAND OBSERVED ON RADAR. I HAVE
INCREASED AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL FORECASTS TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES
ACROSS FLORENCE AND MARION NORTHWARD INTO DILLON AND BENNETTSVILLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ISOLATED AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO
2.5 INCHES. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY FORECAST
POPS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR ARE 100 PERCENT.
THE HRRR IS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT
SHOWS THAT ONCE THIS HEAVY RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF THE SC COAST MOVING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL SE NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID
LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST AS 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
WILL EXTEND WEST...PUSHING FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST INTO THE
REGION. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...TAPPING GULF MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW...TAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WILL
PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AND ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...ATYPICALLY WELL DEFINED (FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR) MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY.
DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL
THEN BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL PVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS
MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
IT BEING SUCH A CLOUDY DAY THAT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY MANAGES TO
DEVELOP SAVE FOR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE PLAYERS
ALL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE HEADING INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH ALL OF
THEM WEAKEN. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH POPS AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON TEMPS. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT STILL
ONES THAT ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS...BUT ALSO SENDS ITS REMAINING VORT CENTER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS THE GFS STRAIGHTENS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WE ALSO MAY SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
CONTRAST TO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MAY THUS BE A
DAY WHERE WE TRANSITION TO MORE SCATTERED AND DEEPER CONVECTION
ESP IF TEMPS START BOUNCING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK SEASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE OF A DRIER
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...THEN RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF CELLS ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE E-ESE AROUND 10KT...EXCEPT VRBL TO 20
KT NEAR CONVECTION. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SHRA/TEMPO
MVFR THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD END
12-15Z. LIGHT RA SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT
KFLO/KLBT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTERWARDS AT KFLO/KLBT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MON AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH/WARM FRONT OFFSHORE HAS PUSHED WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KNOTS ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY SC COAST EARLIER.
THIS IS STRONGER THAN ANY MODEL INDICATED...AND THIS MOST-RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE IS BASED MORE ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THAN ANY
COMPUTER MODEL. EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AROUND 2-3 AM AS THE FRONT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THE BAGGIER PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE BOUNDARY
ARRIVES. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WITH 5 FEET
SHOWING UP AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH CORMP BUOY. THIS IS
A FULL 3 FEET HIGHER THAN FORECASTS JUST SIX HOURS AGO AND SHOWS
HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED HERE. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 3 AM FOR ALL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE MOVES TO THE COAST FRI THEN PUSHES
ONSHORE SAT. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION DURING FRI NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT SHARPENS AS
BOUNDARY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SPEEDS FRI NIGHT MAY TOUCH
15 KT BUT OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD INCREASE TO A
SOLID 3 FT GIVEN THE PROLONGED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. WIND CHOP WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 11 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH POKES A BIT WESTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN FLOW BY A
FEW KNOTS AND ALSO A SLIGHT VEER FROM S TO SW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/SGL
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...PRECIP SHIELD AROUND IS SHIFTING JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME CELLS ARE
PRODUCING INSTANTANEOUS RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 IN/HR OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL UPSTATE...BUT 3-HR FFG RATIOS REMAIN 50 PERCENT OR LESS PER
DUAL POL. THE 02Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THE LLVL MASS
FIELDS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE PRECIP FOCUS
ALIGNING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND NC FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS. THE OP MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS SAME GENERAL QPF TREND. THERE
COULD BE ENUF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE TO WARRANT AN SPS
OR POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS....ESP OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGFNTLY ACROSS
THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING
IN. TEMPS AND TDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STEADY STATE CONDS.
1015 PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS IN A SHIELD FROM
METRO ATLANTA NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT...ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER SC MIDLANDS. SELY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING STEADILY
INCREASED TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES INCREASING PRECIP RATES ACRS THE CWFA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONVECTION HAS WANED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HRS THOUGH 00Z KGSO RAOB SUGGESTS FAIRLY STRONG
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS BACKS UP THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES. FLOOD THREAT
CURRENTLY IS RATHER LOW WITH HRLY RATES OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS PER
HOUR AT MOST SITES. WITHOUT CONVECTION IT IS UNLIKELY FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR...BUT THE LONG DURATION OF RAIN IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN. PORTIONS OF
ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE COUNTIES GOT 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTN
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
IN GENERAL...RAISED POPS UNDERNEATH THE CONTIGUOUS AREA OF
PRECIP...HOLDING ONTO CATEGORICAL WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
UPSLOPING IS SUGGESTED TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
WITH HRLY TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF RAIN COOLING...BUT I REVISED
OVERNIGHT TRENDS/LOWS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP TRENDS.
AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO
AT CLT THIS MORNING AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR ARND 10Z.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT TIL 15Z OR SO AS SFC HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE
TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN
A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO LOW
MVFR IF NOT IFR THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND WILL SEE THE
QUICKEST IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z TO POSSIBLY VFR CONDS AS PRECIP SHIELD
PUSHES NORTH. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S AND VCTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT MED 71% MED 78% HIGH 94% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 89% MED 76% HIGH 86% MED 69%
KAVL MED 78% HIGH 80% MED 76% MED 78%
KHKY HIGH 82% HIGH 80% HIGH 99% HIGH 91%
KGMU HIGH 86% MED 72% HIGH 85% MED 71%
KAND HIGH 85% MED 73% MED 67% MED 69%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-
019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED OVER KIAH WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING DISSIPATED OR WEAKENING. HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAKES A SECOND ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS. LOOKS THAT FRONT
HAS STARTED ITS PUSH AS DEWPOINT AT KCLL HAS STARTED TO FALL AND
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH RES RAP AND HRRR REDEVELOP
PRECIP FROM KCXO SOUTHWARDS AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP FOR THE
INLAND SITES BY 10AM. NEAR THE COAST THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH MOISTURE/ SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. STILL LEFT MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AS
FAR INLAND AS KIAH THANKS TO NAM KEEPING PWAT VALUES AT 1.90".
FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCLL AND KUTS REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY AS THE FRONT IS NEAR OR ALREADY THROUGH THE AREA.
KUTS IT WILL BE CLOSE THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED.
23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
45/23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
40
MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 73 89 71 90 / 50 30 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 90 73 90 / 40 60 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 89 / 20 40 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
UNUSUAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MID SUMMER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN S
CAROLINA TRACKS NE CROSSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OVERRUNNING OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ON SE FLOW OVERTOP A DEVELOPING COOL WEDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z. STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ENHANCED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY UPSLOPE FLOW OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL INIT WAS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL BUT EXPECT THE CURRENT AXIS TO PIVOT MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AS THE WAVE HELPS SHARPEN THE
TROF WHILE BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET ENOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS PER LATEST FFG
SHOWING 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3.5-4.5 INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING. SINCE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WONT POST A WATCH OVER THE SW FOR NOW
BUT EXPECT UPSLOPE MAY CAUSE A GOOD 2-3+ INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES.
BEST LIFT SPREADS NE WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE SOLID
AXIS OF PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN/NE SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHRA WEST/SW. COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP FAR WEST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE COOL AIR
OTRW CLOUDY AND VERY COOL TO START AUGUST. HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS
SOME SPOTS MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTER CAD EVENT WITH TEMPS ONLY
RISING A FEW DEGREES AT MOST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING IT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT
INCLUDING SW VA INTO SE WVA MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP VALUES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S ESPCLY IF THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES A BIT FASTER AND
THINGS BRIGHTEN SLIGHTLY.
IMPULSE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN THE RESIDUAL
WEDGE BUT UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE
FRONT OF THE 5H TROF. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH ADDED RAINFALL ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WEAK
UPSLOPE TO KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS GOING BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY ACTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF SHRA WESTERN HALF LATE SO CUT POPS
BACK TO MAINLY CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE/FOG
OUT EAST. CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWS LIKELY ONLY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BUT AFTER A CHILLY DAY WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 50S
WEST AND LOW 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...IMPULSES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY STEADY RAIN EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE MORE
CONFIDED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODELS
TRENDING DRIER...KEEP POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE
DURING NON-DIURNAL HEATING HOURS AND HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS...EDGE
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMING THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AT
LEAST 10F FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLWB BY DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS RUNNING UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR
AFTER EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS
THERE. ELSW STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM
GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED. ALSO PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN SPOTS SUCH AS KBCB/KROA.
DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE FRIDAY EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ADDED RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY SOUTH OF ROANOKE WITH A GOOD 1-2 INCHES ELSW OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF LATE AND THE OVERALL LACK OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPCLY WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE REALIZED. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINA
AND SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND LYNCHBURG.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS LATER TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD. MORNING WV
IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA
NORTH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST AND
AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING
THE ENTIRE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
EMPTY THIS MORNING WITH THE LAST CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVR ERN
MONTANA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. QUESTION MARK REMAINS ON WHETHER
OR NOT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ITS INABILITY TO INITIATE ON THURSDAY. 00Z MODELS ARE PALTRY
WITH QPF OUTPUT TODAY COMPARED TO RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. WV IMAGERY
DOES SHOW A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT WILL DRIFT SE THRU PORTION OF
THE CWFA TODAY. THE MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO SPARK SOME WK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN YNP YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA AS WELL... DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME WK UPDRAFTS OVR EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING/NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE INHERITED PRECIP CHANCES GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IN AREAS NR THE
PINE RIDGE. IF CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE WEAK AND
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-5F
WARMER TODAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY ACROSS ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK DAILY
CONVECTION OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY THRU THE
WEEKEND..REACHING THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR ALL LOCATIONS BELOW 7KFT
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BEGINNING
MONDAY THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE CWA.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WEDS THOUGH BETTER SUPPORT LOOKS TO
SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TO WARM DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MTNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED HOWEVER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TODAY WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING AROUND 6000
FEET. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION RETURNS MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.
SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.
SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.
MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
13Z MSAS and RAP objective analysis indicated a subtle surface
ridge extending from the Piedmont of North Carolina southwest to
central Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow was associated with
this over much of the same region, and this coincided with an
area of stratus extending as far southwest as our Georgia
counties more reminiscent of autumn. This stratus should scatter
out later this morning, but there should be a weak convergence
zone and thetae gradient somewhere in the vicinity of the current
edge of the cloud shield by 18-20Z. Convection-allowing models are
consistent in developing isolated-scattered showers and storms in
our Georgia zones this afternoon. This is where we have focused
our >20% PoPs today. To the west and south - in southeast Alabama
and our Florida zones - boundary layer average mixing ratios are
considerably lower, indicating that dewpoints are likely to mix
out into the low-mid 60s this afternoon. The drier low level air
should inhibit most convective development, so we have indicated a
mainly dry forecast in these areas. High temperatures should be in
the low-mid 90s for the most part, although we tweaked the highs
down slightly in the northeast part of our Georgia counties where
cloud cover may hang on later into the day.
&&
.Prev Discussion [342 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A combination of upper level support from an eastern U.S.
mid/upper trough will combine with a weak front, and disturbed
sea breeze circulations to yield near, to slightly above average
rain chances through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be near
average (lower 90s) each afternoon, with overnight lows in the
lower 70s.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to
stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist
southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This,
along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our
region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build
across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo
PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land
breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures
will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and
lows in the 70s.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period but
there is a chance of VCTS at ABY, and VLD late this afternoon.
There are no major CIGS/VIS concerns but any terminals that receive
TS could briefly drop down to MVFR/IFR.
.Marine...
Low wind and sea conditions will prevail for the next several days
under a weak surface pressure pattern.
.Fire Weather...
Summer-like conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no
fire weather concerns over the next few days.
.Hydrology...
With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall
totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next
week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 71 93 72 92 / 10 10 50 20 50
Panama City 89 75 89 75 88 / 10 10 40 30 40
Dothan 93 71 91 71 90 / 20 10 40 20 60
Albany 91 71 91 72 90 / 40 30 40 20 50
Valdosta 96 70 95 71 95 / 20 20 50 30 60
Cross City 92 69 93 71 92 / 10 10 30 30 40
Apalachicola 89 72 88 74 89 / 10 10 30 30 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD/DOBBS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD/DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG NOT
THAT ALL THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF AROUND THE AREA. LEFT IN MENTION OF
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS THE
LATEST DATA FROM THE SREF AND HRRR BOTH STILL SUPPORTING IT. WILL
MONITOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
DETERMINE IF ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS
BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY
FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM
GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD.
FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE
MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN
OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR DAWN TOMORROW AT THE TAF
STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE FOG SHOULD BE
BURNING OFF BY 13Z. THE MIGHT BE SOME TEMPO IFR AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT
OF THE VALLEYS...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. LOOKING
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH AROUND 6Z. THE TIMING IS
TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE STORMS IF THEY MOVE ACROSS A TAF
STATION. FOG IS MORE LIKELY TOMORROW DUE TO THE RAIN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Will be monitoring the patchy and shallow dense fog across much of
the area again this morning. See no reason why it wouldn`t be
similar to yesterday`s development.
A sharper mid/upper level trough will develop within the broad
cyclonic flow over the region through tonight, but the 00Z models
are a bit weaker and farther east with it compared to yesterday`s
runs. It will push just east of the area by Saturday evening.
In the low-levels, weak warm advection is noted within the KPAH
VAD wind profile, but the surface pressure pattern is very flat. A
minor push of surface high pressure into the area is expected in
the wake of the upper trough late Saturday into Sunday.
The weak warm advection over southeast Missouri may result in some
isolated shower activity this morning. The NAM soundings in western
portions of southeast Missouri indicate a shallow layer of
instability based around 7kft, and the HRRR develops showers
northward into that area from the Boot Heel region and northeast
Arkansas through the morning. The soundings dry up by 18Z, but as
the mid/upper trough develops southward toward our region, a small
chance of deep convection exists across northern portions of
southern Illinois in the late afternoon and possibly into the
early evening. If a storm develops it should be short-lived and
rather weak.
With the upper trough over the eastern half of the region
Saturday, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be
expected generally along and east of the Mississippi River. Once
again any storms should be short-lived and rather weak.
As for temperatures, the consensus of rather tightly grouped guidance
looks pretty good through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday Night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
High Pressure aloft dominates the WFO PAH forecast area through 12z
Thursday. effectively suppressing convection across the region.
Between 18z Wednesday and 18z Thursday, the latest 00z Friday medium
range model guidance begin to differ sharply in the position of a
deepening shortwave in the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains region.
This significantly impacts the rapidly evolving baroclinic zone to
the northwest of the WFO PAH forecast area. The ECMWF sets up a warm
advection flow with convection being developed along a warm front
developing over the Tri-State region (Southwest IN, Northwest
Kentucky, Southeast Illinois. The GFS keeps the WFO PAH forecast
area in the warm sector ahead of the impressed warm and cold fronts.
By Thursday, the movement and deepening of the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains low continues to differ sharply with the
GFS/ECMWF/NAM guidance in locations and to a lesser degree timing of
upstream convection. Regardless of the latest solution, slowed down
the onset of convection into the area into Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, the east-southeast movement and deepening of the
Upper Midwest/Northern Plains shortwave transitions into an upper Low
over the Great Lakes by late Friday night. Although there is some
initial concern on the timing of the precipitation into the WFO PAH
CWA, this becomes a moot point Thursday into Friday as the
baroclinic zone becomes stretched across the area, prolonging rain
chances across the area. In fact, several of the recent model runs
are consistent in keeping higher than normal PoPs/Weather in place
during this time period.
Therefore, PoPs and Weather have been included for the period from
next Thursday into Friday. All other forecast changes minor, with
the exception of those sensible weather elements impacted by the
forecast convection.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 644 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Weak flow regime continues over the region through the period. Any
convection that develops today should not impact the TAF sites.
Guidance continues to indicate scattered to broken clouds between
5kft and 12kft through the period. The only concern to aviation
will be fog once again. This morning`s fog should lift to VFR in
the first hour or two of the forecast. Tonight, some more
development seems likely at KCGI, but not at the other sites. Will
keep KCGI at MVFR late tonight, but will not be surprised if it
tries to tank again.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
JUST SOME MINOR BRUSH-UPS ON TEMPS/DWPTS FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MINOR THREAT
OF A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...
ALOFT: STAGNANT NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINOR
UNDULATION /SHORTWAVE TROF/ ON THE TROPOPAUSE ALONG THE MT-ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS SUSTAINING OVERNIGHT TSTMS.
THIS WAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP SE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEB TONIGHT.
SURFACE: JUST AS YESTERDAY EXPANSIVE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRES
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH A LARGELY BAROTROPIC
REGIME IN PLACE. AS YESTERDAYS WEAK SFC LOW FILLS AND DISAPPEARS
TODAY...THE NEXT WEAK LOW OVER MT WILL SLOWLY SLIP DOWN THE SD/WY
BORDER THRU TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. LOW TEMPS OF 55-62F
WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
WE HAVE NOTED A COUPLE SHWRS AND EVEN A TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL SD BETWEEN 2-3 AM. THIS IS A BIT BOTHERSOME AS I HAVE THE
FCST DRY DURING THE TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE TWO
RUNS THAT BRING A FADING SHWR OR TWO DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAY SHIFT TO ENSURE THEY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH SOME STRAY PATCHES OF CIRRUS OF ALTOCU
OCCASIONALLY FLOATING THRU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND YESTERDAYS
DEPARTING TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SUPPORT A DRY
FCST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WAS NOT PLEASED WITH ANY OF WHAT THE GUIDANCE
OFFERED. YESTERDAYS HIGHS /85-92F/ WERE 3-5F HIGHER THAN THIS FCSTR
ANTICIPATED AND YET NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NOTHING
NEAR THAT...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS BEING ABOUT THE SAME. THE 06Z
RAP WAS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND I BLENDED IT WITH THE
OBSERVED TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DO WELL WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN.
USED STRAIGHT MAV DEWPOINTS AT 21Z TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOWEST
RH VS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN SD DOWN INTO THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW.
TONIGHT: TURNING P/CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS DRIFTS
INTO THE FCST AREA. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ROAMING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH MLCAPE NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. CINH REMAINS IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. SO IT MAY TAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN
ANY STORMS THAT THREATEN FROM THE NW.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN VIA THE 03Z/SREF WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN A STRAY SHWR OR
TSTM WONT MAKE IT HERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...QPF FIELDS FROM
VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO
TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND/OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WHICH WAS INHERITED...WITH THE HOPES THAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS HEADING INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
NOW THRU 13Z: GRI/EAR ARE FLIRTING WITH MVFR LIGHT FOG. HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP THRU 13Z TO ACCT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TODAY: VFR SKC. A FEW ALTOCU OR SOME THIN CIRROSTRATUS COULD
DRIFT THRU...BUT NOT OF ENOUGH CONSEQUENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
NNE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 17 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC TO START...INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. IT
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NNE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE UNDER 5 KTS AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PRELIMINARY FINAL NUMBERS ARE IN FOR JULY:
HASTINGS
TEMP 73.6 3.5F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 1.48 2.26 BELOW NORMAL
GRAND ISLAND
TEMP 73.4 2.8F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.19 1.21 BELOW NORMAL
ORD
TEMP 70.1 4.3F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.07 0.90 BELOW NORMAL
KEARNEY
TEMP 73.0 1.7F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 0.13 3.15 BELOW NORMAL
THE MONTHLY SUMMARIES WILL BE OUT LATER TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IS JULY
WAS COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A MID
LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
IS INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MY FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PUSH THROUGH ALOFT
TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI-
STATIONARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...WEST AND SOUTH THIS EVENING...NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THUS A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. ALSO...CIGS AT AROUND 8-10K FEET AGL WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO THE 1130 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS AS THE INHERITED FORECAST IS
IN LINE WITH THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 08-09 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
THE MINNESOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES
BAY BRINGING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...IN
THE SWIFT CURRENT AREA...CONTINUED TO SUSTAIN ITS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE IN THE AREA WHERE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
OCCURRING. THE NAM DEPICTS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY...APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN MONTANA SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AND AN EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...THUS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES LATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN WITH A TRANSITION TO NEAR
ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROPAGATING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTERED NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS KISN. STORMS COULD
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE
FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW COVERAGE...DIRECT IMPACTS
TO ANY ONE TERMINAL ARE UNLIKELY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO THE 1130 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS AS THE INHERITED FORECAST IS
IN LINE WITH THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 08-09 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
THE MINNESOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES
BAY BRINGING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...IN
THE SWIFT CURRENT AREA...CONTINUED TO SUSTAIN ITS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE IN THE AREA WHERE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
OCCURRING. THE NAM DEPICTS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY...APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN MONTANA SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AND AN EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...THUS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES LATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN WITH A TRANSITION TO NEAR
ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROPAGATING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTERED NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS KISN. STORMS COULD
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE
FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW COVERAGE...DIRECT IMPACTS
TO ANY ONE TERMINAL ARE UNLIKELY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
951 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS STAYED MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY SOUTH AND IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE UPDATE...AS WELL AS
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY AS WELL IN NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT FRIDAY...
TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING INTO GEORGIA AND WET VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FROM HENRY COUNTY THROUGH WILKES COUNTY
WITH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO BOONE...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY FROM ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
UNUSUAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MID SUMMER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN S
CAROLINA TRACKS NE CROSSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OVERRUNNING OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ON SE FLOW OVERTOP A DEVELOPING COOL WEDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z.
STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY UPSLOPE
FLOW OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER APPEARS
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE
DEEPER SE TRAJECTORY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE COVERAGE FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE FRONT INTO THE N CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MAY HAVE ALSO CAUSED THE MODEL INIT TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
CORE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL BUT EXPECT THE CURRENT AXIS TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AS THE WAVE HELPS
SHARPEN THE TROF WHILE BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET ENOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER A
PROLONGED PERIOD TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS PER
LATEST FFG SHOWING 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3.5-4.5 INCHES TO CAUSE
FLOODING. SINCE EXPECTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO REMAIN MORE
STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WONT POST A WATCH OVER
THE SW FOR NOW BUT EXPECT UPSLOPE MAY CAUSE A GOOD 2-3+ INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.
BEST LIFT SPREADS NE WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE SOLID
AXIS OF PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN/NE SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHRA WEST/SW. COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP FAR WEST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE COOL AIR
OTRW CLOUDY AND VERY COOL TO START AUGUST. HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS
SOME SPOTS MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTER CAD EVENT WITH TEMPS ONLY
RISING A FEW DEGREES AT MOST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING IT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT
INCLUDING SW VA INTO SE WVA MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP VALUES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S ESPCLY IF THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES A BIT FASTER AND
THINGS BRIGHTEN SLIGHTLY.
IMPULSE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN THE RESIDUAL
WEDGE BUT UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE
FRONT OF THE 5H TROF. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH ADDED RAINFALL ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WEAK
UPSLOPE TO KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS GOING BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY ACTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF SHRA WESTERN HALF LATE SO CUT POPS
BACK TO MAINLY CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE/FOG
OUT EAST. CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWS LIKELY ONLY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BUT AFTER A CHILLY DAY WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 50S
WEST AND LOW 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...IMPULSES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY STEADY RAIN EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE MORE
CONFIDED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODELS
TRENDING DRIER...KEEP POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE
DURING NON-DIURNAL HEATING HOURS AND HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS...EDGE
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMING THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AT
LEAST 10F FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN SLIDES SLOWLY
NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY
BLUE RIDGE EAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
RUNNING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WESTERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR AFTER
EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS THERE. ELSW
STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM BY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED THIS
MORNING. ALSO PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY ESPCLY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH
AS KBCB/KROA.
DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE THIS EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTRW WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AT KBLF AND LIFR LATE
AT KLWB DUE TO DENSE FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE...FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS MAINLY SOUTH OF ROANOKE WITH A GOOD 1-2
INCHES ELSW OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF LATE AND THE OVERALL LACK OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPCLY WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE REALIZED. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
AND SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND LYNCHBURG.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS LATER TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
UNUSUAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MID SUMMER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN S
CAROLINA TRACKS NE CROSSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OVERRUNNING OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ON SE FLOW OVERTOP A DEVELOPING COOL WEDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z. STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ENHANCED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY UPSLOPE FLOW OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER APPEARS CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE DEEPER SE TRAJECTORY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE
NATURE COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
HIGHER THETA-E AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FRONT INTO THE
N CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS. THIS MAY HAVE ALSO CAUSED THE MODEL
INIT TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL BUT
EXPECT THE CURRENT AXIS TO PIVOT MORE NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AS THE WAVE HELPS SHARPEN THE TROF
WHILE BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR
NOT WILL GET ENOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD TO
PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS PER LATEST FFG SHOWING 6
HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3.5-4.5 INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING. SINCE EXPECTING
MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WONT POST A WATCH OVER THE SW FOR NOW BUT EXPECT
UPSLOPE MAY CAUSE A GOOD 2-3+ INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.
BEST LIFT SPREADS NE WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE SOLID
AXIS OF PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN/NE SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHRA WEST/SW. COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP FAR WEST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE COOL AIR
OTRW CLOUDY AND VERY COOL TO START AUGUST. HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS
SOME SPOTS MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTER CAD EVENT WITH TEMPS ONLY
RISING A FEW DEGREES AT MOST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING IT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT
INCLUDING SW VA INTO SE WVA MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP VALUES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S ESPCLY IF THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES A BIT FASTER AND
THINGS BRIGHTEN SLIGHTLY.
IMPULSE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN THE RESIDUAL
WEDGE BUT UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE
FRONT OF THE 5H TROF. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH ADDED RAINFALL ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WEAK
UPSLOPE TO KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS GOING BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY ACTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF SHRA WESTERN HALF LATE SO CUT POPS
BACK TO MAINLY CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE/FOG
OUT EAST. CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWS LIKELY ONLY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BUT AFTER A CHILLY DAY WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 50S
WEST AND LOW 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...IMPULSES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY STEADY RAIN EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE MORE
CONFIDED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODELS
TRENDING DRIER...KEEP POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE
DURING NON-DIURNAL HEATING HOURS AND HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS...EDGE
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMING THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AT
LEAST 10F FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROFFING IN THE EAST FLATTENS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY MOVE SO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. NOT SEEING ANY ORGANIZED FORCING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN SLIDES SLOWLY
NORTH...LIKELY COVERING MOST OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ESPCLY
BLUE RIDGE EAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST MAY TAKE SHAPE. STILL APPEARS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
RUNNING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WESTERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF/KLWB MAY BREAK BACK OUT INTO VFR AFTER
EARLY RAINFALL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND PASSAGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE EAST SO WENT CLOSER TO THE LESS PESSIMISTIC GFS THERE. ELSW
STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOWER CIGS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM BY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ONCE THINGS BECOME SATURATED THIS
MORNING. ALSO PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY ESPCLY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH
AS KBCB/KROA.
DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE WAVE THIS EVENING...LINGERING WEDGE AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE
AROUND WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH FOG IN PLACE
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTRW WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AT KBLF AND LIFR LATE
AT KLWB DUE TO DENSE FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF
TSRA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND TAKES MOST MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE...FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS MAINLY SOUTH OF ROANOKE WITH A GOOD 1-2
INCHES ELSW OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF LATE AND THE OVERALL LACK OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPCLY WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE REALIZED. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINA
AND SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND LYNCHBURG.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS LATER TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.
SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.
SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.
MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.
WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
211 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE FL/GA LINE NEAR THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAMP...WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST WHERE IT`S BEEN STUCK FOR A COUPLE DAYS. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. FROM A STACKED LOW OVER
ONTARIO SWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING A DEEP SWLY FLOW WHICH IS PUSHING COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
ERUPTED OVER SE GA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES NORTH OF THE SFC
TROUGH...AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT 18Z
THE SEA BREEZE IS PINNED ALONG THE COAST...BUT AS IT DRIFTS INLAND
LATER THIS AFTN...CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE SBRZ AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER BREEZE. THE HRRR ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS
MOST OF NE FL WITH HIGHER COVERAGE NEAR THE OCALA NAT`L FOREST.
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS BETWEEN HWY 301 AND I-95 LATER THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION WILL FADE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO SLIDE ONSHORE GIVING BRIEF DOWNPOURS TO A FEW
BEACH LOCATIONS.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESIDE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES WITH HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TS BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO THE N/NE BY MIDWEEK AS TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ANY IMPACTS TO THE AREA
WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED RIP
CURRENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...WITH MAINLY LOW END
CHANCES OF AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED AT NE FL TERMINALS AND WITH SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER SE GA...HAVE MVFR CONDS AT SSI THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE VCTS UNTIL 00Z-02Z. LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE TROUGH DIVIDES THE FL AND GA WATERS WITH S-SE FLOW ACROSS
FL WATERS AND N-NE FLOW OVER GA WATERS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 92 74 91 / 50 60 40 60
SSI 77 87 77 85 / 30 50 30 60
JAX 75 90 75 89 / 30 60 30 60
SGJ 75 88 75 89 / 20 50 30 60
GNV 72 92 72 91 / 20 60 40 60
OCF 72 92 72 91 / 20 60 40 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Latest water vapor loops shows a shortwave axis moving over
Missouri with subsidence over eastern Kansas at 19Z. Surface trough
and low extended from northeast to southwest Kansas. Scattered
clouds have developed in layer around 750-700mb and forecast
soundings from the RUC show clouds dissolving by 02Z. Winds expected
to become easterly this evening as the surface low and trough moves
into southeast Kansas. Some isentropic lift develops after 06Z
tonight with low condensation pressure deficits over east central
Kansas. NAM has best lift over southeast Kansas after 09Z on the
305K isentropic surface. Have kept in some partly cloudy skies in
east central Kansas later tonight and into early Saturday morning.
There is little in the way of upper support, but could see some
isolated very light showers or sprinkles develop in the isentropic
lift and models have shown over the last few runs. Lows tonight will
range from the lower to mid 60s.
Saturday, the northwest upper flow continues with heights rising
slightly through the day. Expect highs to be a few degrees warmer
out toward central Kansas and similar to today. Some small chances
of showers are possible on Saturday with weak embedded waves and
some weak isentropic lift especially in the morning. With nothing
showing up upstream in water vapor will keep the dry forecast going.
Models show a 700 mb wave over north central Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. The NAM develops some showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central and parts of east central Kansas in a zone of
700-500mb frontogenesis in the afternoon. Slight warming aloft may
inhibit any precipitation from forming and will increase pops but
remain less than 15 percent attm.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A board upper level ridge across the west-central conus will
gradually build east across the southern plains by mid week.
Weak upper level troughs embedded in northwesterly flow aloft may
provide enough ascent when combined with weak isentropic lift at
night for isolated showers Saturday Night through Sunday night. At
this time I will only carry 10 to 14 pops due to the uncertainty on
areal coverage and timing. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. lows will be in the 60s.
It looks dry Monday through Tuesday as the upper level ridge
builds eastward into the southern plains. Highs will be in the lower
to mid 90s. lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday Night through Thursday, A series of upper level troughs will
round the upper level ridge axis across the northern and central
plains. A cold front will also push southward into eastern KS on
Wednesday and may stall out across the CWA through Thursday. The
combination of ascent ahead of the upper level troughs and surface
convergence along the surface cold front will provide the CWA with
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will gradually cool
into the mid 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds near 10 kts at
TOP and FOE through 22Z then becoming east under 10 kts through
the end of the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND...WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE MODEL HAVING VARYING DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THINGS...SO THOSE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO FORMULATE THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN
DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 4Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW ON AVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RISING IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...WITH
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ALSO CUT OFF UNTIL AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT POPS BEING INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH MEAGER MOISTURE...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS USED ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS REINFORCING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND
CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ON TO THE EAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ROCKIES ALSO BREAKS DOWN. IN RESPONSE...
SURFACE FEATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A TRANSITION...AND FLOW OFF THE
GULF SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. LOW POPS WERE USED FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT ONLY WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG
THE VIRGINIA BORDER AT TAF ISSUANCE...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FOG
WILL BE ON TAP BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THE
RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
JKL AND SJS. LOZ AND SME COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IF THE FOG BECOME DENSE AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH AFTER 8 OR
9Z TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND...WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE MODEL HAVING VARYING DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THINGS...SO THOSE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO FORMULATE THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN
DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 4Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW ON AVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RISING IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG
THE VIRGINIA BORDER AT TAF ISSUANCE...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FOG
WILL BE ON TAP BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THE
RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
JKL AND SJS. LOZ AND SME COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IF THE FOG BECOME DENSE AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH AFTER 8 OR
9Z TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
Will be monitoring the patchy and shallow dense fog across much of
the area again this morning. See no reason why it wouldn`t be
similar to yesterday`s development.
A sharper mid/upper level trough will develop within the broad
cyclonic flow over the region through tonight, but the 00Z models
are a bit weaker and farther east with it compared to yesterday`s
runs. It will push just east of the area by Saturday evening.
In the low-levels, weak warm advection is noted within the KPAH
VAD wind profile, but the surface pressure pattern is very flat. A
minor push of surface high pressure into the area is expected in
the wake of the upper trough late Saturday into Sunday.
The weak warm advection over southeast Missouri may result in some
isolated shower activity this morning. The NAM soundings in western
portions of southeast Missouri indicate a shallow layer of
instability based around 7kft, and the HRRR develops showers
northward into that area from the Boot Heel region and northeast
Arkansas through the morning. The soundings dry up by 18Z, but as
the mid/upper trough develops southward toward our region, a small
chance of deep convection exists across northern portions of
southern Illinois in the late afternoon and possibly into the
early evening. If a storm develops it should be short-lived and
rather weak.
With the upper trough over the eastern half of the region
Saturday, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be
expected generally along and east of the Mississippi River. Once
again any storms should be short-lived and rather weak.
As for temperatures, the consensus of rather tightly grouped guidance
looks pretty good through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday Night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
High Pressure aloft dominates the WFO PAH forecast area through 12z
Thursday. effectively suppressing convection across the region.
Between 18z Wednesday and 18z Thursday, the latest 00z Friday medium
range model guidance begin to differ sharply in the position of a
deepening shortwave in the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains region.
This significantly impacts the rapidly evolving baroclinic zone to
the northwest of the WFO PAH forecast area. The ECMWF sets up a warm
advection flow with convection being developed along a warm front
developing over the Tri-State region (Southwest IN, Northwest
Kentucky, Southeast Illinois. The GFS keeps the WFO PAH forecast
area in the warm sector ahead of the impressed warm and cold fronts.
By Thursday, the movement and deepening of the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains low continues to differ sharply with the
GFS/ECMWF/NAM guidance in locations and to a lesser degree timing of
upstream convection. Regardless of the latest solution, slowed down
the onset of convection into the area into Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, the east-southeast movement and deepening of the
Upper Midwest/Northern Plains shortwave transitions into an upper
Low over the Great Lakes by late Friday night. Although there is
some initial concern on the timing of the precipitation into the WFO
PAH CWA, this becomes a moot point Thursday into Friday as the
baroclinic zone becomes stretched across the area, prolonging rain
chances across the area. In fact, several of the recent model runs
are consistent in keeping higher than normal PoPs/Weather in place
during this time period.
Therefore, PoPs and Weather have been included for the period from
next Thursday into Friday. All other forecast changes minor, with
the exception of those sensible weather elements impacted by the
forecast convection.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
For the southern terminals /kcgi and kpah/...mid level cigs around
10k feet will persist through this evening in advance of a
southeastward moving upper level disturbance. Once skies clear out
later tonight...there will likely be some fog as winds become calm.
Conditions should be similar to early this morning. The fog will
burn off quickly within a couple hours after sunrise.
For the northern terminals /kevv and kowb/...cumulus clouds will
gradually increase this afternoon but should remain scattered for
the most part. A mid level cloud deck will arrive early this evening
in advance of an upper level disturbance. Could not rule out some
showers this evening...but probabilities are too low to include in
tafs. Skies will clear out by early Saturday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WHICH WAS A LITTLE BIT LATER IN THE DAY
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THE LATER THAN ANTICIPATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. SINCE
THINGS GOT GOING A BIT LATER...ALSO DECIDED TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG NOT
THAT ALL THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF AROUND THE AREA. LEFT IN MENTION OF
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS THE
LATEST DATA FROM THE SREF AND HRRR BOTH STILL SUPPORTING IT. WILL
MONITOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
DETERMINE IF ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS
BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY
FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM
GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD.
FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE
MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN
OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG
THE VIRGINIA BORDER AT TAF ISSUANCE...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FOG
WILL BE ON TAP BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THE
RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
JKL AND SJS. LOZ AND SME COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IF THE FOG BECOME DENSE AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH AFTER 8 OR
9Z TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
INHERITED FORECAST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN
DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OTHER THAN THE
USUAL MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA...DID NUDGE
DOWN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES...LEANING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA MORE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S RANGE VERSUS UPPER 80S-LOW
90S...ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN KS
TO TOUCH 90. OVERALL THOUGH...TODAY IS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WAS. THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS NO
UPDATES/CHANGES YET FOR TONIGHT AND BEYOND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
JUST SOME MINOR BRUSH-UPS ON TEMPS/DWPTS FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MINOR THREAT
OF A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...
ALOFT: STAGNANT NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINOR
UNDULATION /SHORTWAVE TROF/ ON THE TROPOPAUSE ALONG THE MT-ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS SUSTAINING OVERNIGHT TSTMS.
THIS WAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP SE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEB TONIGHT.
SURFACE: JUST AS YESTERDAY EXPANSIVE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRES
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH A LARGELY BAROTROPIC
REGIME IN PLACE. AS YESTERDAYS WEAK SFC LOW FILLS AND DISAPPEARS
TODAY...THE NEXT WEAK LOW OVER MT WILL SLOWLY SLIP DOWN THE SD/WY
BORDER THRU TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. LOW TEMPS OF 55-62F
WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
WE HAVE NOTED A COUPLE SHWRS AND EVEN A TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL SD BETWEEN 2-3 AM. THIS IS A BIT BOTHERSOME AS I HAVE THE
FCST DRY DURING THE TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE TWO
RUNS THAT BRING A FADING SHWR OR TWO DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAY SHIFT TO ENSURE THEY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH SOME STRAY PATCHES OF CIRRUS OF ALTOCU
OCCASIONALLY FLOATING THRU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND YESTERDAYS
DEPARTING TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SUPPORT A DRY
FCST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WAS NOT PLEASED WITH ANY OF WHAT THE GUIDANCE
OFFERED. YESTERDAYS HIGHS /85-92F/ WERE 3-5F HIGHER THAN THIS FCSTR
ANTICIPATED AND YET NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NOTHING
NEAR THAT...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS BEING ABOUT THE SAME. THE 06Z
RAP WAS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND I BLENDED IT WITH THE
OBSERVED TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DO WELL WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN.
USED STRAIGHT MAV DEWPOINTS AT 21Z TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOWEST
RH VS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN SD DOWN INTO THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW.
TONIGHT: TURNING P/CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS DRIFTS
INTO THE FCST AREA. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ROAMING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH MLCAPE NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. CINH REMAINS IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. SO IT MAY TAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN
ANY STORMS THAT THREATEN FROM THE NW.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN VIA THE 03Z/SREF WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN A STRAY SHWR OR
TSTM WONT MAKE IT HERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...QPF FIELDS FROM
VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO
TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND/OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WHICH WAS INHERITED...WITH THE HOPES THAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS HEADING INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE MID
LEVEL CEILING MAINLY DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A PASSING
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO EVEN JUSTIFY
A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS
SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 10-12KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS TRANSITION TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PRELIMINARY FINAL NUMBERS ARE IN FOR JULY:
HASTINGS
TEMP 73.6 3.5F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 1.48 2.26 BELOW NORMAL
GRAND ISLAND
TEMP 73.4 2.8F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.19 1.21 BELOW NORMAL
ORD
TEMP 70.1 4.3F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.07 0.90 BELOW NORMAL
KEARNEY
TEMP 73.0 1.7F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 0.13 3.15 BELOW NORMAL
THE MONTHLY SUMMARIES WILL BE OUT LATER TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IS JULY
WAS COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1208 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
INHERITED FORECAST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN
DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OTHER THAN THE
USUAL MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA...DID NUDGE
DOWN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES...LEANING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA MORE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S RANGE VERSUS UPPER 80S-LOW
90S...ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN KS
TO TOUCH 90. OVERALL THOUGH...TODAY IS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WAS. THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS NO
UPDATES/CHANGES YET FOR TONIGHT AND BEYOND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
JUST SOME MINOR BRUSH-UPS ON TEMPS/DWPTS FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MINOR THREAT
OF A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...
ALOFT: STAGNANT NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A MINOR
UNDULATION /SHORTWAVE TROF/ ON THE TROPOPAUSE ALONG THE MT-ALBERTA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS SUSTAINING OVERNIGHT TSTMS.
THIS WAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP SE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEB TONIGHT.
SURFACE: JUST AS YESTERDAY EXPANSIVE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRES
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CNTRL/ERN USA WITH A LARGELY BAROTROPIC
REGIME IN PLACE. AS YESTERDAYS WEAK SFC LOW FILLS AND DISAPPEARS
TODAY...THE NEXT WEAK LOW OVER MT WILL SLOWLY SLIP DOWN THE SD/WY
BORDER THRU TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. LOW TEMPS OF 55-62F
WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
WE HAVE NOTED A COUPLE SHWRS AND EVEN A TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL SD BETWEEN 2-3 AM. THIS IS A BIT BOTHERSOME AS I HAVE THE
FCST DRY DURING THE TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR ENSEMBLE DOES HAVE TWO
RUNS THAT BRING A FADING SHWR OR TWO DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE DAY SHIFT TO ENSURE THEY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH SOME STRAY PATCHES OF CIRRUS OF ALTOCU
OCCASIONALLY FLOATING THRU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND YESTERDAYS
DEPARTING TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SUPPORT A DRY
FCST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WAS NOT PLEASED WITH ANY OF WHAT THE GUIDANCE
OFFERED. YESTERDAYS HIGHS /85-92F/ WERE 3-5F HIGHER THAN THIS FCSTR
ANTICIPATED AND YET NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NOTHING
NEAR THAT...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS BEING ABOUT THE SAME. THE 06Z
RAP WAS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND I BLENDED IT WITH THE
OBSERVED TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD DO WELL WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN.
USED STRAIGHT MAV DEWPOINTS AT 21Z TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOWEST
RH VS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN SD DOWN INTO THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
LOW.
TONIGHT: TURNING P/CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS DRIFTS
INTO THE FCST AREA. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ROAMING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH MLCAPE NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. CINH REMAINS IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. SO IT MAY TAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN
ANY STORMS THAT THREATEN FROM THE NW.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN VIA THE 03Z/SREF WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN A STRAY SHWR OR
TSTM WONT MAKE IT HERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...QPF FIELDS FROM
VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO
TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND/OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WHICH WAS INHERITED...WITH THE HOPES THAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS HEADING INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
NOW THRU 13Z: GRI/EAR ARE FLIRTING WITH MVFR LIGHT FOG. HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP THRU 13Z TO ACCT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TODAY: VFR SKC. A FEW ALTOCU OR SOME THIN CIRROSTRATUS COULD
DRIFT THRU...BUT NOT OF ENOUGH CONSEQUENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
NNE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 17 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC TO START...INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. IT
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NNE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SE UNDER 5 KTS AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PRELIMINARY FINAL NUMBERS ARE IN FOR JULY:
HASTINGS
TEMP 73.6 3.5F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 1.48 2.26 BELOW NORMAL
GRAND ISLAND
TEMP 73.4 2.8F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.19 1.21 BELOW NORMAL
ORD
TEMP 70.1 4.3F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 2.07 0.90 BELOW NORMAL
KEARNEY
TEMP 73.0 1.7F BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP 0.13 3.15 BELOW NORMAL
THE MONTHLY SUMMARIES WILL BE OUT LATER TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IS JULY
WAS COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE. AS
EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS (AT THIS POINT, EXACTLY 2) HAVE
DEVELOPED -- ONE BETWEEN PLATTSBURGH AND BURLINGTON, THE OTHER
VERY NEAR ST JOHNSBURY. THESE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AN AXIS OF
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MOISTURE (BASED ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS) THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS, ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF VERMONT AND INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR INDICATES IT IS THIS REGION THAT ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY POP FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TO BE THE
PRIMARY ZONE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. KEPT THE WORDING AS
"THUNDERSTORM", BUT HONESTLY 12Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT SHOULD MAKE IT HARD
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO REALLY DEVELOP, SO THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
OVERDONE. ON THE FLIP SIDE, LOCAL MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000+ J/KG
CAPE VALUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS
TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
AFTER ALL THAT TALK ABOUT CONVECTION, A SOLID 98.83% OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE ANOTHER 3
DEGREES OR SO FROM WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE. ALL IN ALL, A DECENT
SUMMER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION COMES TO AN END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BACKS JUST A BIT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT MORE CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF COURSE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TUESDAY. STILL CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVES IN
FLOW ALOFT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-14C MONDAY/TUESDAY...COOLING JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY MID WEEK
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE CPV.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DISSIPATING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AT KSLK AND
KMPV. VFR LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 06Z...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 15Z/16Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
134 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
FORECAST REMAINS VALID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A MID LEVEL EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR ITS PROXIMITY
AND ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SPARKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOK
TO CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A MID
LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
IS INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MY FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PUSH THROUGH ALOFT
TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI-
STATIONARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...WEST AND SOUTH THIS EVENING...NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THUS A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. ALSO...CIGS AT AROUND 8-10K FEET AGL WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO THE 1130 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS AS THE INHERITED FORECAST IS
IN LINE WITH THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 08-09 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
THE MINNESOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES
BAY BRINGING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH.
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...IN
THE SWIFT CURRENT AREA...CONTINUED TO SUSTAIN ITS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE IN THE AREA WHERE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
OCCURRING. THE NAM DEPICTS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY...APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN MONTANA SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AND AN EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...THUS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES LATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN WITH A TRANSITION TO NEAR
ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROPAGATING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN ND...AND MAY IMPACT KDIK 20-22Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW
COVERAGE...DIRECT IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL ARE UNLIKELY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON MOST
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z DATA COMING IN...IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAT ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON....ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN SD AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD BY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL FORM IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN SD. CURRENT HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK AND LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED THERE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME WEAK
ENERGY RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY AROUND. THEREFORE...WILL ONCE AGAIN JUST SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS.
WITH NO REAL UPPER SUPPORT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...THEN WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL POPS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH DRY AS THE WAVE TRACKS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE EAST...AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS
ENERGY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND FLATTENS IT. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE CONSOLIDATED LOOKING ENERGY WILL
BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS POPS ARE HIGHEST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE HIT AND MISS RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...THEN TREND TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KPIR AND KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1106 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON MOST
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z DATA COMING IN...IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAT ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON....ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN SD AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD BY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL FORM IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN SD. CURRENT HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK AND LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED THERE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME WEAK
ENERGY RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY AROUND. THEREFORE...WILL ONCE AGAIN JUST SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS.
WITH NO REAL UPPER SUPPORT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...THEN WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL POPS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH DRY AS THE WAVE TRACKS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE EAST...AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS
ENERGY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND FLATTENS IT. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE CONSOLIDATED LOOKING ENERGY WILL
BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS POPS ARE HIGHEST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE HIT AND MISS RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...THEN TREND TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
TOWARD EVENING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KPIR OR EVEN KMBG. HOWEVER KATY/KABR SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT FRIDAY...
TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING INTO GEORGIA AND WET VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FROM HENRY COUNTY THROUGH WILKES COUNTY
WITH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO BOONE...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY FROM ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
UNUSUAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MID SUMMER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN S
CAROLINA TRACKS NE CROSSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE OVERRUNNING OF
WARM/MOIST AIR ON SE FLOW OVERTOP A DEVELOPING COOL WEDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z.
STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY UPSLOPE
FLOW OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER APPEARS
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE
DEEPER SE TRAJECTORY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE COVERAGE FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE FRONT INTO THE N CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MAY HAVE ALSO CAUSED THE MODEL INIT TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
CORE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL BUT EXPECT THE CURRENT AXIS TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR AS THE WAVE HELPS
SHARPEN THE TROF WHILE BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET ENOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER A
PROLONGED PERIOD TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS PER
LATEST FFG SHOWING 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3.5-4.5 INCHES TO CAUSE
FLOODING. SINCE EXPECTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO REMAIN MORE
STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WONT POST A WATCH OVER
THE SW FOR NOW BUT EXPECT UPSLOPE MAY CAUSE A GOOD 2-3+ INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.
BEST LIFT SPREADS NE WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE SOLID
AXIS OF PRECIP TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN/NE SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHRA WEST/SW. COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP FAR WEST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE COOL AIR
OTRW CLOUDY AND VERY COOL TO START AUGUST. HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS
SOME SPOTS MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTER CAD EVENT WITH TEMPS ONLY
RISING A FEW DEGREES AT MOST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING IT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK SPOTS OVER THE PIEDMONT
INCLUDING SW VA INTO SE WVA MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP VALUES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S ESPCLY IF THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES A BIT FASTER AND
THINGS BRIGHTEN SLIGHTLY.
IMPULSE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN THE RESIDUAL
WEDGE BUT UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE
FRONT OF THE 5H TROF. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH ADDED RAINFALL ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WEAK
UPSLOPE TO KEEP LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS GOING BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY ACTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF SHRA WESTERN HALF LATE SO CUT POPS
BACK TO MAINLY CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE/FOG
OUT EAST. CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWS LIKELY ONLY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BUT AFTER A CHILLY DAY WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 50S
WEST AND LOW 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...IMPULSES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY STEADY RAIN EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE MORE
CONFIDED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODELS
TRENDING DRIER...KEEP POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE
DURING NON-DIURNAL HEATING HOURS AND HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS...EDGE
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMING THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AT
LEAST 10F FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER WEST VIRGINIA WHILE
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TS BERTHA OR
WHAT IS REMAINING OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AND PARTIALLY STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE PWATS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING AND TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. FOCUS
OF THE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY NORTH
OF ROUTE 460.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. 850MB
TEMPS OF +15-17C WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP NIGHT TIME TEMPS UP A
BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOFT FROM TWO SHORT
WAVES CROSSING THE AREA...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
AFTER SUNSET...CEILINGS WILL DROP AND REMAIN AT IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 09Z/5AM.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAST WEDGE WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z/11AM. EXPECT KLYH WILL BE THE
LAST AIRPORT TO LIFT OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR- IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENHANCED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS MAINLY SOUTH OF
ROANOKE WITH A GOOD 1-2 INCHES ELSW OVER THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF LATE AND THE OVERALL
LACK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPCLY WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE
REALIZED. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA AND SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH
LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND
LYNCHBURG.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS BACK ON THE AIR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/AMS
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
244 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. STILL EXPECT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO TREK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED THE RISK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO LINE
UP WITH DEVELOPING TOWERING CU SEEN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY...IN ADDITION
TO THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MINIMAL CAPE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THO...SO NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
BECOME STRONG NOR WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVELS LOOKING OVERALL LESS
ENERGETIC THAN TODAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT ANTICIPATED...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT COVERAGE WILL SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS...SO CONFINED CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 14C.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE MID TO UPPERLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS FOR INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...MODELS SHOW POOR CONSISTENCY AND ARE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS AND GEM...WITH THE GEM ALSO
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS IS MAKING POP AND WEATHER FORECASTS
DIFFICULT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF WHICH DAYS HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTBREAKS. THEREFORE...KEPT POP NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS NEARLY EVERYDAY HOWEVER. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WYOMING IN SOME FORM. WEAK WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH A SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S...WHICH
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE. KEPT TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS DUE TO AN OBSERVED WARM BIAS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH 30 PERCENTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALSO ALONG
THE PINE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD. MORNING WV
IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA
NORTH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST AND
AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING
THE ENTIRE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
EMPTY THIS MORNING WITH THE LAST CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVR ERN
MONTANA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. QUESTION MARK REMAINS ON WHETHER
OR NOT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ITS INABILITY TO INITIATE ON THURSDAY. 00Z MODELS ARE PALTRY
WITH QPF OUTPUT TODAY COMPARED TO RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. WV IMAGERY
DOES SHOW A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT WILL DRIFT SE THRU PORTION OF
THE CWFA TODAY. THE MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO SPARK SOME WK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN YNP YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA AS WELL... DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME WK UPDRAFTS OVR EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING/NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE INHERITED PRECIP CHANCES GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IN AREAS NR THE
PINE RIDGE. IF CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE WEAK AND
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-5F
WARMER TODAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY ACROSS ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK DAILY
CONVECTION OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY THRU THE
WEEKEND..REACHING THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR ALL LOCATIONS BELOW 7KFT
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BEGINNING
MONDAY THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE CWA.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WEDS THOUGH BETTER SUPPORT LOOKS TO
SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TO WARM DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TODAY WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING AROUND 6000
FEET. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION RETURNS MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN