Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/31/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.
TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.
AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERN DISCUSSION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY RAINS
IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIKE
THE SOLUTIONS GIVEN BY THE 4KM ARW...4KM NMM AND HRRR WHICH
SUGGEST A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WV CLEARLY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. CONVECTION TENDS TO WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR
STRONGER STORMS ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
DURING THE EVENING...THETAE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWA...AND MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP AN
MCS OVER NE COLORADO AND SE WYOMING. ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS ALONG
WEAK FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE FRONT OVER SW KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO BACA COUNTY AND OTHER COUNTIES NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. LIKE CURRENT DAY 1 WPC HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
WHICH KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH MODERATE RISK TO THE
NORTH.
ON WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
LAYER UP TO 400MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER AN INCH. LOWER
LAYERS COULD BECOME SATURATED WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES POSSIBLE
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. WHEN SEE SATURATED LOWER LAYERS WITH
1.5KM DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...AM ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING OVER
AND CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CURRENT SIMULATIONS SUGGEST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. --PGW--
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS. PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.
HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED. BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL. EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT. GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.
LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.
FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AT
THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO PUT IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE NORTHERLY AT KCOS TONIGHT AND LIMIT
LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT MAY REACH KCOS BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED. THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH. OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT. THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS HRRR THRU MID AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE ELY BY 18Z. AFT 21Z MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM FOOTHILLS
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS. IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT THEN COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILTIES UP TO AN HOUR AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. FOR
TONIGHT NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO EVOLVE. COULD SEE A STEADY
RAIN EVENT DVLP WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. STARK
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA. MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.
MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.
THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE LOW SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE BY
12Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THE TAF LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STARK
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.
VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.
KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF WAYNE COUNTY THIS MID EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BAXLEY TO BRUNSWICK EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW DRAPED OVER THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER AT 00Z. THIS ELONGATED NW-SE MESOSCALE LOW FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO JESSUP TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NASSAU COUNTY BY 15Z THURSDAY. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE ELONGATED MESOLOW, WITH
MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRETTY DRY WITH BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR OVER KSSI AND KVQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS DRAWING VSBYS DOWN AT TIMES TO 5SM.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE SEABREEZE
IN SE GA WITH THE AID OF THE MESOSCALE LOW FEATURE IN THE AREA.
CURRENTLY DON`T HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED AT SSI TERMINAL...BUT WILL
LIKELY ADD IN THE 06Z TAF FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT SE TO 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS FROM NASSAU COUNTY
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. AN
INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRI THEN
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND POSSIBLY REACH SCEC CRITERIA ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 92 73 92 / 10 30 30 40
SSI 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 30 40
JAX 71 90 74 91 / 10 20 20 40
SGJ 75 88 75 89 / 10 20 20 40
GNV 69 92 72 92 / 0 20 20 40
OCF 70 92 72 92 / 0 20 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/CORDERO/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 75 87 75 87 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 68 90 73 90 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 74 89 74 87 / 20 10 10 20
GNV 67 91 70 91 / 10 0 0 20
OCF 69 92 71 91 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 77 91 / 30 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 92 79 92 / 20 60 50 50
MIAMI 79 92 79 91 / 20 60 50 50
NAPLES 80 90 78 87 / 40 60 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 20 40 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 60 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 30 40 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH
ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 60 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 30 40 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
847 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
844 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD-UP AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION IS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE
COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT WINDS TO
TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
URBAN AREAS A LITTLE WARMER. ELSEWEHERE TEMPS SHUD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH NERN IL AND NWRN IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...DIURNAL CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN...BUT THE REGION REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME ISOLD SHRA OR AN EVEN MORE ISOLD TS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DURG THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY DIURNAL PCPN WILL DISSIPATE AND AND RESIDUAL
PCPN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INVOF ON OF THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE AND A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SFC. UNDER PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK GRADIENT PATTERN
AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE WILL PENETRATE.
CERTAINLY...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE
COOLING WILL PENETRATE. SO...WILL KEEP THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A BIT
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS FAR AS LAKE INFLUENCE IS CONCERNED AND
LIMIT THE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. UNDER THE COOL
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F OR SO. TIMING OF PERIODS OF PCPN
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WHILE NO DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...THERE
SHOULD BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY...WITH
INLAND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT A WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTING AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL CREEP INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW...SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN...SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST
WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMING
TREND COULD BE BRIEF AS A WEAK UPPER LOW HANGS BACK OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT
BUILD ANY FARTHER EAST THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...THE SFC
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR THE EXTEDNED FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPPING UP FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PCPN.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A LAKE BREEZE HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF ORD/MDW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE WEST UNTIL IT DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LIKELY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN WESTERLY
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM REACHING ORD/MDW...BUT A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL FORM NEAR THE LAKE.
CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI
WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING NORTHERN IL WITH JUST FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY COOL TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT/SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL SPOTS AND ADDED FOG MENTION TO DPA. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
732 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 730 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Diurnal clouds quickly fading, leading behind some cirrus left
over from convection in the central Plains, as well as a smoke
layer coming in from the northwest. Have updated the sky grids to
lower the cloud cover, primarily over the next 6 hours or so. This
did not impact the zone forecasts, although an update was sent to
that product to remove the late afternoon period. Temperatures
appear on track and no adjustments needed.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Little change needed to the going TAF set. Diurnal cumulus is
quickly fading, and any lingering clouds around 6000 feet will be
going away over the next hour or two. Scattered clouds expected to
redevelop again toward 15Z or so. Cannot rule out a stray
afternoon shower from KPIA-KCMI, but chances are too low to
include a mention.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
An upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will
continue to keep Illinois in an unseasonably cool air mass into the
weekend. Chances of spotty showers or storms will continue through
Saturday, then a dry period may develop as into early next week as
upper level ridging advances into IL. Warmer conditions appear in
the far extended as high temps approach normal on Tue and Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
A few showers bubbled up this afternoon northeast of a line from
Bloomington to Mattoon. Any lightning through 230 pm remained in
Indiana closer to the better mid-level instability. RAP sounding
analysis east of Champaign showed only 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE for
storm updraft development in our counties, which supports the
limited vertical development observed visually and on satellite.
We expect any showers in our northeastern forecast area to
dissipate by 00z/7pm, so no precip was included in the evening
grids. The diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate with the
passage of sunset as well, providing clear skies overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, creating
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Lows should dip into the
mid to upper 50s in most locations. A few spots could linger in
the low 60s depending on localized surface dew point trends.
Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a few isolated
afternoon showers east-northeast of PIA to BMI to MTO. Highs
will top out in the low 80s with relatively comfortable dew points
around 60F.
Friday and Saturday will feature the passage of stronger 500mb
shortwaves, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and
storms. We still expect mainly 30-40% coverage on both days, but
thunder potential will be higher due to deeper mid-level
instability and increasing moisture. Highs will still remain below
normal in the low 80s through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.
The upper level low will shift east of Illinois for Sunday through
Monday with upper level ridging providing dry conditions both days.
Slow warming will begin...with highs by Monday approaching the
middle 80s. Storm chances are expected to return on Tuesday and
Wednesday the next series of shortwaves roll over the top of the
ridge in the Plains. No strong to severe weather is anticipated at
this point. A warm front developing north of IL will help
southerly flow bring mid to upper 80s into our forecast area,
which are closer to normal for early Aug.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
631 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH NERN IL AND NWRN IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...DIURNAL CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN...BUT THE REGION REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME ISOLD SHRA OR AN EVEN MORE ISOLD TS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DURG THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY DIURNAL PCPN WILL DISSIPATE AND AND RESIDUAL
PCPN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INVOF ON OF THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE AND A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SFC. UNDER PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK GRADIENT PATTERN
AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE WILL PENETRATE.
CERTAINLY...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE
COOLING WILL PENETRATE. SO...WILL KEEP THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A BIT
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS FAR AS LAKE INFLUENCE IS CONCERNED AND
LIMIT THE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. UNDER THE COOL
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F OR SO. TIMING OF PERIODS OF PCPN
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WHILE NO DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...THERE
SHOULD BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY...WITH
INLAND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT A WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTING AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL CREEP INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW...SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN...SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST
WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMING
TREND COULD BE BRIEF AS A WEAK UPPER LOW HANGS BACK OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT
BUILD ANY FARTHER EAST THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...THE SFC
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR THE EXTEDNED FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPPING UP FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PCPN.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A LAKE BREEZE HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF ORD/MDW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE WEST UNTIL IT DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LIKELY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN WESTERLY
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM REACHING ORD/MDW...BUT A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL FORM NEAR THE LAKE.
CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI
WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING NORTHERN IL WITH JUST FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY COOL TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT/SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL SPOTS AND ADDED FOG MENTION TO DPA. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
614 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
An upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will
continue to keep Illinois in an unseasonably cool air mass into the
weekend. Chances of spotty showers or storms will continue through
Saturday, then a dry period may develop as into early next week as
upper level ridging advances into IL. Warmer conditions appear in
the far extended as high temps approach normal on Tue and Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
A few showers bubbled up this afternoon northeast of a line from
Bloomington to Mattoon. Any lightning through 230 pm remained in
Indiana closer to the better mid-level instability. RAP sounding
analysis east of Champaign showed only 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE for
storm updraft development in our counties, which supports the
limited vertical development observed visually and on satellite.
We expect any showers in our northeastern forecast area to
dissipate by 00z/7pm, so no precip was included in the evening
grids. The diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate with the
passage of sunset as well, providing clear skies overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, creating
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Lows should dip into the
mid to upper 50s in most locations. A few spots could linger in
the low 60s depending on localized surface dew point trends.
Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a few isolated
afternoon showers east-northeast of PIA to BMI to MTO. Highs
will top out in the low 80s with relatively comfortable dew points
around 60F.
Friday and Saturday will feature the passage of stronger 500mb
shortwaves, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and
storms. We still expect mainly 30-40% coverage on both days, but
thunder potential will be higher due to deeper mid-level
instability and increasing moisture. Highs will still remain below
normal in the low 80s through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.
The upper level low will shift east of Illinois for Sunday through
Monday with upper level ridging providing dry conditions both days.
Slow warming will begin...with highs by Monday approaching the
middle 80s. Storm chances are expected to return on Tuesday and
Wednesday the next series of shortwaves roll over the top of the
ridge in the Plains. No strong to severe weather is anticipated at
this point. A warm front developing north of IL will help
southerly flow bring mid to upper 80s into our forecast area,
which are closer to normal for early Aug.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Little change needed to the going TAF set. Diurnal cumulus is
quickly fading, and any lingering clouds around 6000 feet will be
going away over the next hour or two. Scattered clouds expected to
redevelop again toward 15Z or so. Cannot rule out a stray
afternoon shower from KPIA-KCMI, but chances are too low to
include a mention.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
218 PM CDT
FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DAILY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...WITHIN REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SERIES OF RELATIVELY MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE
OF WEAK RIPPLES PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM PROPAGATING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO MODULATE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN JUXTAPOSED ATOP
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL WARMTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WEAK/SKINNY MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CUMULUS CONGESTUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM NEAR ROCKFORD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.
CURRENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GROW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PEAK INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WANING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH ONTARIO SHORT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO
DURING PERIOD OF BETTER INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE FORCING WILL DECREASE
LAST...WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THESE DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TIED TO CONVERGENCE ZONES AS IS
THE CASE TODAY...WILL CONTINUE IN SIMILAR FASHION THURSDAY AS
WELL. OBVIOUSLY...NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AND THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS EVEN IN PLACES THAT DO. BY FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH MAY SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH A GREATER AERIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYTIME
PERIODS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH RETURNS THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 70S BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TO SLOWLY WARMING FROM UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW SUBTLE
COOL-DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT MDW LATER THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING
ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH INLAND A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KGYY AND POSSIBLY KMDW LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...I HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TO
MDW GIVEN THE 12-15 KT OF 925 MB WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IT
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. FOR NOW...I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OF THIS LAKE BREEZE AND MAKE A DECISION LATER OF WHETHER OR
NOT TO REMOVE THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE MDW TAF.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE
AFTER 21 UTC THROUGH AROUND 02 UTC THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE EXPECTED...I HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS CHANCE
WITH A VCSH.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENECE WILL LAKE BREEZE GETTING TO MDW BY 21 UTC. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING ORD THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Northwesterly winds of around 10kt this afternoon will diminish to
less than 5kt this evening as high pressure builds into the area.
Light W/NW winds will resume on Wednesday. Aside from SCT diurnal
clouds, skies will remain mostly clear through 18z Wed.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
212 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT MDW LATER THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH INLAND A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KGYY AND POSSIBLY KMDW LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...I HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TO
MDW GIVEN THE 12-15 KT OF 925 MB WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IT
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. FOR NOW...I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OF THIS LAKE BREEZE AND MAKE A DECISION LATER OF WHETHER OR
NOT TO REMOVE THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE MDW TAF.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE
AFTER 21 UTC THROUGH AROUND 02 UTC THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE EXPECTED...I HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS CHANCE
WITH A VCSH.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS continues to be the
dominant weather-maker across central Illinois today. Northerly
flow is providing unseasonably cool temperatures, with afternoon
highs once again expected to remain in the 70s. Main question will
be whether or not any showers will develop within the cyclonic
flow pattern aloft. Not really seeing much of anything on the
latest water vapor imagery, so am skeptical any showers will form
today. Will however hold on to just slight chance PoPs northeast
of I-74 as HRRR/NAM12 both develop a few showers across northeast
Illinois late this afternoon. No zone updated needed at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Northwesterly winds of around 10kt this afternoon will diminish to
less than 5kt this evening as high pressure builds into the area.
Light W/NW winds will resume on Wednesday. Aside from SCT diurnal
clouds, skies will remain mostly clear through 18z Wed.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT MDW LATER THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
HAD TO DROP THE PROB 30 FOR THUNDER DUE TO THE RESTRICTIONS OF
HAVING IT WITHIN THE FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME I
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDER IN THIS AFTERNOONS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STILL CERTAINLY STILL A LOW END THREAT OF
THUNDER IMPACTING THE AIRFIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
21-22 UTC HOUR.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8 KT BY MID
MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MDW AND
GYY. WINDS WILL TURN EAST AT MDW BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE AND
NORTHEAST AT GYY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO EXTRA FORCING ALONG IT. STILL
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW MANY STORMS WILL OCCUR...BUT HAVE
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS.
WINDS SLOWLY BECOME WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4AM CDT AS PLANNED. WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND VARY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE. A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ROTATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO DRIVE WINDS OVER 15 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES WILL BE FAVORED IN NEAR SHORE AREAS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE EVENING OVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LAKE ON MANY
NIGHTS.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS continues to be the
dominant weather-maker across central Illinois today. Northerly
flow is providing unseasonably cool temperatures, with afternoon
highs once again expected to remain in the 70s. Main question will
be whether or not any showers will develop within the cyclonic
flow pattern aloft. Not really seeing much of anything on the
latest water vapor imagery, so am skeptical any showers will form
today. Will however hold on to just slight chance PoPs northeast
of I-74 as HRRR/NAM12 both develop a few showers across northeast
Illinois late this afternoon. No zone updated needed at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 609 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all central Illinois TAF sites for
the next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover will develop with daytime
heating. Cool air aloft may allow a few convective showers to
develop...mainly KPRG-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys quite isolated and too low probability for mention in
TAFs. After 00z...any shower activity/cloud cover diminishing.
Winds increasing to NW8-12 kts by 15Z...decreasing to W up to 5
kts after 00Z.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED AT MDW THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE
OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8 KT BY MID
MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MDW AND
GYY. WINDS WILL TURN EAST AT MDW BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE AND
NORTHEAST AT GYY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO EXTRA FORCING ALONG IT. STILL
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW MANY STORMS WILL OCCUR...BUT HAVE
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS.
WINDS SLOWLY BECOME WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EASTERN PUSH OF LAKE BREEZE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND
TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/IMPACTING
TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4AM CDT AS PLANNED. WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND VARY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE. A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ROTATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO DRIVE WINDS OVER 15 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES WILL BE FAVORED IN NEAR SHORE AREAS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE EVENING OVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LAKE ON MANY
NIGHTS.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
628 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 609 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all central Illinois TAF sites for
the next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover will develop with daytime
heating. Cool air aloft may allow a few convective showers to
develop...mainly KPRG-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys quite isolated and too low probability for mention in
TAFs. After 00z...any shower activity/cloud cover diminishing.
Winds increasing to NW8-12 kts by 15Z...decreasing to W up to 5
kts after 00Z.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
401 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LAKE BREEZE PSBL THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE OR E
BEHIND IT. BEST CHANCE OF LAKE BREEZE AT MDW.
* CHANCE OF ISOL/SCT SHRA AND TSRA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WE REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK FLOW WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE PERIOD
RESULTING IN VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. PATCHY VFR CLOUDS WILL
PASS OVER THE TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF BKN TO OVC VFR CIGS.
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED...BUT HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR
WEST THE LAKE BREEZE WILL TRAVEL. BASED ON SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...THINKING THE LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT MDW AND GYY BUT
STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD. SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
COVERAGE AND IF THE ISOL TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER
THE TERMINALS. WINDS BACK TO WNW THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EASTERN PUSH OF LAKE BREEZE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND
TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/IMPACTING TERMINALS...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF
SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULE OUT (MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING)
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4AM CDT AS PLANNED. WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND VARY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE. A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ROTATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO DRIVE WINDS OVER 15 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES WILL BE FAVORED IN NEAR SHORE AREAS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE EVENING OVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LAKE ON MANY
NIGHTS.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies will continue overnight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning, and then dissipate again during the evening. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then northwesterly again
tomorrow at around 10kts. Winds will then become light again
during the evening out of the west-southwest.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
2030Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RADAR
TRENDS. ADDED IN VCSH TO KIND AND KBMG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
TIMED IN A THUNDERSTORM FOR KLAF FROM 21-23Z BASED A RADAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
718 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A significant, excessive rainfall event appears more and more likely
across portions of southwest, west central, and south central
Kansas. lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will increase
substantially in the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, thanks to coupling
dynamics for ascent from the exiting Midwest jet and perturbed
monsoon flow from northern Arizona rotating anticyclonically into
Colorado. There was a fairly well-defined vorticity anomaly moving
north-northeast into southern Utah, with greatest area of potential
vorticity advection (and subsequent mid-tropospheric ascent) moving
into western Colorado as of 08Z this morning. Every numerical
weather prediction we can get our hands on shows the same thing: a
swath of 2 to 5 inches of storm total QPF, with much of it falling
in the 06-18Z time frame Wednesday. The question still remains where
the important 850-750mb mean frontogenesis will set up. There has
been a slight trend to the north with the frontogenetic zone in the
GFS and now the latest 29.06Z run of the NAM12.
There are a couple things that are concerning for a flood/flash
flood threat: 1) the monsoon influence. Water vapor satellite loop
shows a fairly large area of fairly high content water vapor
(tropical in nature) all across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies and into far western Kansas. 29.00Z RAOB at Grand
Junction, CO and Albuquerque, NM both show deep tropical moisture
up above 500mb (500mb mixing ratio at or just above 4 g/kg). 2)
orientation of 750-850mb zone of frontogenesis with deep
tropospheric mean flow. The frontogenetic zone will setup in a
west-northwest to east-southeast orientation during the time frame
in question late tonight through the first half of Wednesday,
which will be nearly parallel to the 850-300mb thickness field,
which is usually a good indication of MCS motion in this
environment. Training of storms in a high-precipitation effeciency
environment is definitely a strong possibility. This will
certainly lead to some areas seeing excessive rainfall over a short
period of time. Per collaboration with AMA, OUN, and PUB, we
decided to all join in on a Flash Flood Watch. The official QPF
grids will reflect storm total amounts in excess of 2 inches over
a large portion of the area south of roughly a Scott City to
Jetmore to Pratt line. There will likely be a band or two of 4 or
even 5-inch amounts when all is said and done, but this level of
detail cannot be forecast at this time. All indications are that
the atmosphere will be capable of this excessive rainfall total,
though, and we will mention this in the Flash Flood Watch product.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
Little overall change was made to the forecast elements in the days
2 and 3 timeframe with respect to the meteorological elements.
Following the models, some downward adjustment in PoPs was made for
Wednesday afternoon when convection and stratiform rain should be
winding down across south central Kansas as the mid level
frontogenetic zone weakens and moves south of the region. The GFS
advertises the highest amount of QPF, on the order of 3 to 5 inches
on Wednesday, which could easily be achievable with training storms
in this MIDLEVEL tropical relatively warm collision-coalescence
environment. The consensus of models continue to indicate cool
temperatures in the the upper 60`s where the heaviest deep cloud
layer produces rain cooled air through the day. Beyond Wednesday,
the region will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with
a signal for late afternoon convection along the Palmer divide and
sangre de cristo mts, occasionally moving into extreme sw Kansas by
early evening. High temperatures should moderate through the 80s
though the weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
Latest HRRR indicated the scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue eastward through mid morning, but have a low probability of
impacting any terminals. GCK could see a vicinity shower after 14
UTC. Shower and thunderstorms activity will become more widespread
this evening and especially overnight into Wednesday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 63 68 60 / 30 100 90 50
GCK 83 63 69 57 / 30 100 90 40
EHA 79 62 72 60 / 40 90 70 40
LBL 80 63 72 61 / 30 100 90 50
HYS 87 63 73 61 / 10 60 70 30
P28 89 65 69 62 / 20 90 90 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
Wednesday afternoon FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.
For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night. Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.
Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 78 63 70 / 10 50 90 90
GCK 61 77 63 69 / 10 40 90 90
EHA 63 79 62 73 / 20 60 90 70
LBL 64 78 63 71 / 20 70 90 90
HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70
P28 64 83 65 70 / 10 40 90 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.
AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED
THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR
THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXITING ALONG THE TUG FORK. WILL REMOVE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME OF THE SKY
COVER...AS SOME LOWER STRATUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG MORE PATCHY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LIMIT SHOWERS TONIGHT TO THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW
SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED
AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE...
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY
SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST
KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS
WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH
NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON...
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO
FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE
KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON
ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL
SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY
AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12
GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO
ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
EXPECT THE HIGHER BASED CU TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS DAWN...SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN SCATTER
OUT BY AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 81 69 83 69 / 50 50 40 30 20
MLU 65 82 67 83 68 / 20 50 40 40 30
DEQ 66 72 64 80 65 / 80 60 20 20 10
TXK 67 77 64 81 67 / 80 60 30 20 10
ELD 66 77 64 82 66 / 60 60 40 30 10
TYR 72 83 68 84 70 / 60 50 30 20 10
GGG 72 82 68 83 69 / 60 50 40 20 10
LFK 73 90 72 87 71 / 30 40 40 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
739 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN PA...THEN A SPLIT IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NRN WV...AND A STORM CLUSTER DIVING SOUTH WITH
OUTFLOW IN SWRN WV. THE 21Z HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THIS EXACT
PLACEMENT...THREE HOURS FROM NOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES ASIDE...THE
EVOLUTION SHOWN IN THE HRRR IS REASONABLE...WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS PA...AND THE WV ACTIVITY FALLING APART
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SWRN WV.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIGHT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THUNDER LOOKS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY AS
WE REACH SUNSET...PLUS INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED FURTHER
EAST...AND ALREADY THE CG LIGHTNING IS HALF WHAT WAS OCCURRING AN
HOUR AGO.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WITH THE 730 PM
UPDATE. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
MADE NO CHANGE TO TEMPS AT THIS EARLY STAGE. STILL EXPECT SOME
MAINLY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
MARTINSBURG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO AND
PERHAPS KMRB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THE INVERSION SETS
UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT SOME GUSTS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHES
BAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.
AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.
AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...JE/KS
MARINE...JE/KS
CLIMATE...JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.
WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.
WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.
AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.
WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.
WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.
WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.
AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.
WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAD INCREASED POPS SOME
THIS MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS OCCURRING. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH ONE INCH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 76 56 78 / 40 20 10 30
INL 50 78 52 78 / 30 10 10 30
BRD 56 79 57 81 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 52 77 53 79 / 40 20 10 40
ASX 50 75 53 76 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 50 40 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 30 30 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 50 40 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 30 20 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 40 20 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 30 20 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 40 20 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 30 20 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 40 20 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER TO NEAR 0-5% AND REMOVED LIGHT
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.
.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR 50-60% OF NORMAL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS PAVING THE WAY FOR A COMFORTABLE LATE JULY DAY
WITH CURRENT READINGS AS OF 10AM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH A COUPLE
SPORADIC 90F DEGREE READINGS TOWARDS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. A WEAK
SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS N MS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD COULD HELP INITIATE SOME VERY SHALLOW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATES DECENT CAPPING NEAR
6-8 KFT AND SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE.
THUS, REMOVED LIGHT SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 60 87 66 / 5 2 5 13
MERIDIAN 89 57 87 62 / 5 2 5 10
VICKSBURG 88 59 87 64 / 5 2 5 19
HATTIESBURG 91 64 89 65 / 5 2 2 6
NATCHEZ 87 61 86 66 / 5 2 2 11
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 65 / 5 2 13 32
GREENWOOD 85 56 84 63 / 5 2 8 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/CME/26/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT. SOME SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT HAVE NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 60 87 66 / 10 2 5 13
MERIDIAN 89 57 87 62 / 10 2 5 10
VICKSBURG 88 59 87 64 / 10 2 5 19
HATTIESBURG 91 64 89 65 / 3 2 2 6
NATCHEZ 87 61 86 66 / 3 2 2 11
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 65 / 10 2 13 32
GREENWOOD 85 56 84 63 / 10 2 8 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1052 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR MILES CITY AND COLSTRIP GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTH TODAY...ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
PLUME IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN NOW AND MID AFTN...A SHORT WINDOW HERE...BUT
OTHERWISE WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS PASSES. HAVE MADE A FEW MORE POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.
AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
1/B 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
1/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
2/T 11/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
1/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
2/T 21/U 02/T 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS TO A
NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PCPN IS
IN RESPONSE TO RRQ JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHEAST MT MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THIS UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING...SO FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE LATER
TODAY. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR S/SW NEAR WEAK LOW IN
UTAH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90F...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.
AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
1/B 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
2/T 01/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
1/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
2/T 01/U 02/T 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAPE TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.
AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMLS. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS PERSIST
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE AREA. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
1/B 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
1/B 01/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
0/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
2/T 01/U 02/T 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.
THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES. IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.
MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.
THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.
THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.
&&
$$
33/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM 1ST PERIOD POPS A BIT...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODERATE
RAIN AND FLOODING IS ONGOING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
POPPING IS AN INDICATION OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE (KABQ SURFACE DEWPOINT HIT 63 EARLIER THIS
MORNING). ALSO TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES WEST AND
DOWN 2-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 85 62 89 62 / 50 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 76 51 82 51 / 70 30 30 40
CUBA............................ 78 55 83 54 / 80 30 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 81 57 85 58 / 30 20 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 83 54 / 40 30 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 80 55 84 55 / 50 20 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 80 57 84 57 / 30 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 86 58 90 59 / 30 20 20 20
CHAMA........................... 71 47 76 47 / 90 50 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 58 82 56 / 90 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 75 55 80 53 / 90 30 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 51 74 51 / 90 50 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 64 45 65 43 / 90 70 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 43 70 43 / 90 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 73 51 78 51 / 70 40 30 50
MORA............................ 73 51 75 50 / 90 40 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 80 58 85 57 / 70 30 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 77 59 82 57 / 80 30 30 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 79 58 85 57 / 70 30 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 65 88 62 / 70 30 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 85 67 90 64 / 60 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 65 92 62 / 50 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 66 90 63 / 60 30 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 63 92 61 / 50 30 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 84 65 89 63 / 60 30 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 87 68 93 65 / 50 30 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 60 85 55 / 70 40 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 81 61 86 57 / 70 30 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 56 85 54 / 70 30 20 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 79 58 82 53 / 70 30 20 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 80 61 86 57 / 70 30 20 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 64 88 61 / 30 20 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 77 56 83 52 / 60 40 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 73 57 69 53 / 80 80 50 50
RATON........................... 75 57 70 55 / 70 60 40 50
SPRINGER........................ 77 57 74 55 / 70 40 30 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 55 77 52 / 70 40 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 79 62 73 56 / 70 70 40 40
ROY............................. 76 60 74 56 / 70 50 30 50
CONCHAS......................... 85 66 85 62 / 60 40 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 65 84 60 / 70 40 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 67 85 61 / 70 40 20 40
CLOVIS.......................... 84 64 87 60 / 60 40 20 40
PORTALES........................ 86 65 89 61 / 60 30 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 86 66 89 62 / 60 40 20 40
ROSWELL......................... 91 68 96 66 / 30 20 10 30
PICACHO......................... 83 63 91 61 / 40 30 20 50
ELK............................. 80 61 86 58 / 50 50 30 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS
BENNETTSVILLE AND THE RED SPRINGS AREA OF ROBESON COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT
WITH RADAR CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING ECHO TOPS AROUND 20KFT AND ALL
HIGH REFLECTIVITY AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. (THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 14600 FT) MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL AND EVEN THE HRRR IS NOT INDICATING NEARLY
ENOUGH ACTIVITY ON ITS LATEST FEW RUNS. I HAVE EXPANDED FORECAST
POPS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN ROBESON/NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTIES BY
2-3 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED VERSUS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM
FOLLOWS...
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY IS
MAINTAINING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. OBSERVED
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +15C ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TOO...AND TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST BELOW
700 MB HAS BEEN FAIRLY SUCCESSFUL AT CAPPING OFF THE VERTICAL GROWTH
OF SHOWERS TODAY. ONLY A HANDFUL OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN THE
CAP AND GROWN INTO DEEPER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
THIS EVENING THE FUEL FOR THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE...WITH PREDICTED SHOWER CHANCES DROPPING TO BARELY 10
PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT.
A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE TO THE
GULF STREAM WATERS OFF SOUTH CAROLINA MARKS THE EDGE OF TROPICAL AIR
AT THE SURFACE. OUR AIRMASS IS HEAVILY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR THAT HAS SPENT THE PAST DAY TRAVERSING THE SEASONABLY WARM WATER
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR CLOUDS
REMAINING AT LEAST ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT SHOULD
INGEST A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING ONTO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...LIFTING IT UP THROUGH THE 800-750 MB LAYER
OVERNIGHT. THE LIFT IS QUITE WEAK AND WERE IT NOT FOR ITS RICH
MOISTURE CONTENT IT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING. I HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECASTS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS
A RESULT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH 70-75 EXPECTED AT THE COAST IN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. H5 TROF ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA
STARTS TO LIFT TO THE NE TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NW
AROUND TO THE SW BY FRIDAY AND A WARM MOIST TRANSPORT OF AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET AS COASTAL TROUGH
PUSHES ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY
REGION STARTS TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PWAT AT THIS TIME I HAVE
SCALED BACK ON THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NIGHT
TIME WITH A BETTER CHANCE BY FRIDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/POP BUT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER POPS
FROM THE GFS ON FRIDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. PWAT INCREASE ON
FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
INCREASE POPS TO OVER 40 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. STAGE IS SET
FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE
CLOUD COVER INHIBITS DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING CLIMO NORMS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BOTH WASH OUT AS MONDAY
PROGRESSES BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR A SIMILAR FORECAST. TUESDAY HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED LIKE A
MORE TYPICAL AUGUST DAY BUT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
MID LEVEL VEERING AND STILL SHOW SOME WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS
PASSING OVERHEAD. FEEL IT MAY BE BEST TO STILL SHOW A HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POP-BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL ALSO SHOW RISING
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART
ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE LINGERING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT.
ESE WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
KFLO/KLBT...AND LIGHT NE AT KCRE/KMYR/KILM. ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR BR FORMATION. BEST TIME FRAME
FOR DECREASED VSBYS SHOULD BE 08-12Z AT KFLO/KLBT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MOISTURE IS AT KFLO...A BROKEN LAYER OF MID CLOUDS IS FCST BY SREF
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT AT KFLO.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW AT KFLO...AND LOW AT KLBT
DUE TO LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SCT NEAR KFLO DURING THE MORNING. SCT LOW AND MID
CLOUDS...WITH THIN BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THEN BECOME E-ESE AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING...WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO NEARLY 4 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH 3 FOOT SEAS NOW SHOWING
UP AT THE SUNSET BEACH BUOY. SINCE THAT LOCATION IS NORMALLY QUITE
PROTECTED FROM INCOMING SWELL I HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS TO A SOLID 4 FEET FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND 3 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. WINDS AT BUOYS AND
COASTAL STATIONS ARE RUNNING 2-3 KNOTS HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST
WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE SEA HEIGHT DISCREPANCY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE
TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS WHICH IS HELPING SUSTAIN A 2-3 FOOT
5-SECOND WIND CHOP. WHEN COMBINED WITH A SMALL SOUTHEAST 9-SECOND
SWELL...COMBINED SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 3 FEET. ALTHOUGH A
RENEGADE SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS APPEAR TO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE DURING
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
THURSDAY BUT INCREASE FRIDAY WITH COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE.
WINDS MAINLY E TO SE ON THURSDAY VEERING TO THE S-SW BY FRIDAY.
WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST. SEAS AROUND
3 FT FOR THE MOST PART AS WIND WAVES QUITE LIGHT BUT WNA SPECTRAL
PLOTS SHOWING A SEERLY SWELL. HEADING INTO SUNDAY A MINOR VEER TO
THE S AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS ALLOWING WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT WITH LOCAL WIND
GENERATION. SEAS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY A SIMILAR ONE COMPASS POINT VEER TO SW CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY SHOULD THE
ATLANTIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTHEN BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP AND ITS FUTURE PATH AND STRENGTH STILL PRETTY
UP IN THE AIR.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.
BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
CANCELLED PARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY DOWNWARD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH.
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BASICALLY
NORTHWEST OF A EL RENO TO STILLWATER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS
ENDED. PLAN TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA CITY AS WELL WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR ONCE ONGOING RAIN ENDS AS REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS
TO BE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER
EAST OF WICHITA FALLS. DID NOT INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL MONITOR.
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GROW IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA JUST SOUTH
OF DUNCAN AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS CLUSTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A SEYMOUR TEXAS TO WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE MOST RAIN HAS ENDED AND
REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WIDESPREAD
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS. EXPECT A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BY
05Z. LARGE AREA OF SHRA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
AT LEAST ONE COMPLEX OF TSRA FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM 00Z THROUGH AROUND 08Z THURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN VSBYS REDUCED TO A MILE OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY FROM KOKC/KOUN SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 06Z...INTERMITTENT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THURS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN FORECAST BY 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HINTON TO
KINGFISHER TO GUTHRIE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT ALTER AT
THIS TIME.
APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE DECREASING
DUE TO PERHAPS CAPPING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.
MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL LINE.
WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS NECESSARY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND WE AGREED THAT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE MURRAY... JOHNSTON... COAL AND ATOKA COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST SIGNAL OF THE QPF AXIS IS LOCATED. ON THE
OTHER SIDE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LOW AFTER TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 78 64 84 / 70 30 0 0
HOBART OK 64 79 63 85 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 79 66 86 / 40 20 10 0
GAGE OK 60 79 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 80 61 84 / 30 20 0 0
DURANT OK 68 76 63 82 / 100 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ025>032-040>043-
047-048.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WIDESPREAD
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS. EXPECT A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BY
05Z. LARGE AREA OF SHRA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
AT LEAST ONE COMPLEX OF TSRA FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM 00Z THROUGH AROUND 08Z THURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN VSBYS REDUCED TO A MILE OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY FROM KOKC/KOUN SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 06Z...INTERMITTENT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THURS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN FORECAST BY 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HINTON TO
KINGFISHER TO GUTHRIE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT ALTER AT
THIS TIME.
APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE DECREASING
DUE TO PERHAPS CAPPING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.
MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL LINE.
WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS NECESSARY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND WE AGREED THAT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE MURRAY... JOHNSTON... COAL AND ATOKA COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST SIGNAL OF THE QPF AXIS IS LOCATED. ON THE
OTHER SIDE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LOW AFTER TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 78 64 84 / 90 30 0 0
HOBART OK 64 79 63 85 / 40 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 79 66 86 / 40 20 10 0
GAGE OK 60 79 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 80 61 84 / 70 20 0 0
DURANT OK 67 76 63 82 / 80 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ018>020-
024>032-040>043-047-048.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ012-013.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY
CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BACK THROUGH THE LAURELS AS WELL AS
NWRN MOUNTAINS. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
NOT DISAPPEARING ALTOGETHER UNTIL AROUND DAWN.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NERN
US...WITH ANY NUMBER OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT
FLOW SO THE IDEA THAT SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO GO AWAY LOOKS
REASONABLE.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS IN
THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND PERHAPS A
FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A DROP TO MVFR WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
ELSEWHERE...OCCASIONAL DROP TO IFR IN FOG IS OCCURRING WHERE RAIN
FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT AND NOT
RECOVER UNTIL SUNRISE.
A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE KBFD AREA LATER
IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY
CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES BACK THROUGH THE LAURELS AS WELL AS
NWRN MOUNTAINS. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
NOT DISAPPEARING ALTOGETHER UNTIL AROUND DAWN.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NERN
US...WITH ANY NUMBER OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT
FLOW SO THE IDEA THAT SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO GO AWAY LOOKS
REASONABLE.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS IN
THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND PERHAPS A
FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL DIMINISHING JUST TO THE WEST
OF KJST AND KAOO SO WENT WITH BETTER CONDITIONS THAN SITES TO THE
NORTH...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND MOVING TOWARD BOTH KIPT
AND KUNV. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
SITES...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY REDUCTION IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.
A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. CU DEVEOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NO SBCAPE ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESO ANAL PAGE.
HENCE...STILL THINK THAT CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD DESPITE THE QPF RESPONSE IN
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.
AS 0F 950 AM...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY RIDGE TOP SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY THE
12Z NAM DEVELOPS SOME SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND ADVECTS THEM INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THE QPF RESPONSE
AND THE CAPE IN THE MODEL LOOK WAY OVER DONE AND WILL DISCOUNT THAT
SOLUTION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY MUTED RESPONSE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HENCE...WILL JUST MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TYPE
POPS MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE GRIDS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND CONSSHORT RUN.
AS OF 530 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER NICE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. REMOVED WHAT LITTLE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EVEN THE LITTLE TN RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS FOG FREE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
REMAIN IN THE 1-3 DEGREE MARK WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. LATEST
SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT INDICATES AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE TN BORDER WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT REGIONS THIS MORNING. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER PLEASANT NEAR TERM FORECAST AHEAD
FOR NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND WESTERN NC. BROAD UPPER EASTERN
CONUS TROF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
LEADING TO NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN MORE
DRYING IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON AMONGST HEATING.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS FAIR WX
CU PREVAILS. LASTLY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN WEAK THEREBY NEGATING MIXING EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE UNDER NORMAL LEVELS.
LIKEWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE
LOW TERRAIN WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS EXPERIENCE
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
THRU THE TROF TAKING THE TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA WED...WITH THE
AXIS REBUILDING TO THE WEST ON THU. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AND REMAINS IN PLACE THU. ALSO ON THU...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ATMOS
GENERALLY CAPPED...THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN NC
MTNS. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW INCREASES THU INTO THU NITE AS MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY AND GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL IN THE DEVELOPING SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET SETS UP OVER THE SERN CONUS. MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WEAKENS ALLOWING WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. ALL
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHC OF SCT SHRA THU INTO THU NITE.
BEST CHC FOR ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW THICKNESSES...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING WEDGE LIKE SFC PATTERN AND POTENTIALLY LIGHT
PRECIP. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM...GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST FRI AND
SAT AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS CHANGES BY THE END AS THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF AXIS
WEST OF THE AREA SUN...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE
ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS ON SUN WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST INTO THE SERN CONUS MONDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THIS KEEPS THE MOIST S TO SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE CHC OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH
THE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE UPPER PATTERN...THE SFC PATTERN IS
SIMILAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING
THE CHC OF PRECIP IN PLACE AS WELL. HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO WX FREE CONDITIONS. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONDENSE BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO FEW/SCT LOW VFR
FAIR WX CU. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BEING POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY WILL YIELD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION/FOG/STRATUS CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 0F 950 AM...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY RIDGE TOP SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY THE
12Z NAM DEVELOPS SOME RASH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND ADVECTS THEM INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THE QPF RESPONSE
AND THE CAPE IN THE MODEL LOOK WAY OVER DONE AND WILL DISCOUNT THAT
SOLUTION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY MUTED RESPONSE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HENCE...WILL JUST MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TYPE
POPS MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE GRIDS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND CONSSHORT RUN.
AS OF 530 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER NICE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. REMOVED WHAT LITTLE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EVEN THE LITTLE TN RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS FOG FREE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
REMAIN IN THE 1-3 DEGREE MARK WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. LATEST
SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT INDICATES AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE TN BORDER WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT REGIONS THIS MORNING. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER PLEASANT NEAR TERM FORECAST AHEAD
FOR NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND WESTERN NC. BROAD UPPER EASTERN
CONUS TROF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
LEADING TO NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN MORE
DRYING IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON AMONGST HEATING.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS FAIR WX
CU PREVAILS. LASTLY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN WEAK THEREBY NEGATING MIXING EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE UNDER NORMAL LEVELS.
LIKEWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE
LOW TERRAIN WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS EXPERIENCE
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
THRU THE TROF TAKING THE TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA WED...WITH THE
AXIS REBUILDING TO THE WEST ON THU. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AND REMAINS IN PLACE THU. ALSO ON THU...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ATMOS
GENERALLY CAPPED...THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN NC
MTNS. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW INCREASES THU INTO THU NITE AS MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY AND GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL IN THE DEVELOPING SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET SETS UP OVER THE SERN CONUS. MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WEAKENS ALLOWING WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. ALL
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHC OF SCT SHRA THU INTO THU NITE.
BEST CHC FOR ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW THICKNESSES...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING WEDGE LIKE SFC PATTERN AND POTENTIALLY LIGHT
PRECIP. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM...GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST FRI AND
SAT AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS CHANGES BY THE END AS THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF AXIS
WEST OF THE AREA SUN...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE
ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS ON SUN WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST INTO THE SERN CONUS MONDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THIS KEEPS THE MOIST S TO SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE CHC OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH
THE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE UPPER PATTERN...THE SFC PATTERN IS
SIMILAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING
THE CHC OF PRECIP IN PLACE AS WELL. HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO WX FREE CONDITIONS. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONDENSE BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO FEW/SCT LOW VFR
FAIR WX CU. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BEING POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY WILL YIELD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION/FOG/STRATUS CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
RAIN ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BUT MAY YET STICK AROUND ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BEHIND DRIVEN
EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL THUS
ADDRESS THAT SCENARIO WITH THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AT KLBB TO TAPER OFF AND NOT REALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES
EARLY THIS AFTN WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS NEAR THE NM LINE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WEST TO ERN NM WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF KLBB. KCDS WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING A TS TOWARD 06Z AND WILL KEEP PROB30
MENTION THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 80 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 70 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 80 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 85 69 93 62 79 / 80 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 50 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 50 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 30 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 80 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 70 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 80 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 86 69 94 63 79 / 70 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 50 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 50 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 30 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 70 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 60 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 86 69 94 63 79 / 50 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 30 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 30 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 40 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 70 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 60 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 85 69 93 62 79 / 50 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 30 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 30 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 40 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. LBB WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST
TERMINAL IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION...AS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING CDS DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS LATER
ACTIVITY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL IMPACTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.
FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.
LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 84 64 83 61 / 50 50 30 40 30
TULIA 63 83 66 84 62 / 40 50 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 65 83 67 89 62 / 40 40 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 68 88 68 92 63 / 30 20 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 67 87 70 92 63 / 30 30 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 69 92 68 95 62 / 20 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 69 91 69 94 64 / 30 20 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 67 83 69 84 66 / 30 60 30 40 30
SPUR 69 88 69 94 65 / 20 30 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 70 92 72 97 68 / 20 30 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
16/99/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 20Z TUESDAY. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY BY 10Z. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE I-35 TAF
SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 10 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION
HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE
EXTEND FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
AREAS AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800
PM. THE OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY
THAT HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF
LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500
PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE
WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO...AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY
EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL FOR BR HZ DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE USUAL SPOTS...BUT ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN WV NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA WILL DISSIPATE PER ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CI SHIELD MAY AFFECT LWB FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCT AC/SC WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LWB/BCB AND
POTENTIALLY DAN/LYH...WITH LWB LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT ROA
OR BLF AT THIS TIME. FOR THU...LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN
THE 040-060 RANGE...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN CU/SC/AC
DURING THE MID DAY/AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...CI SHIELD WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS
IT APPEARS TO REACH NO FURTHER THAN NW NC LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS...MOSTLY SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
BCB/LYH/DAN/LWB WILL LIKELY SEE CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS THU REMAINING MOSTLY 5KTS OR LESS EVEN AFT 14Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SE
STATES THU...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
EXTENSIVE OVERRUNNING LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA. SFC AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...SO THUNDER APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
THIS SCENARIO IN -RA -DZ BR. FOR SAT-SUN...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN SAT WITH ONLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. FOR SUN...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA SAT AND MORE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
IFR-LIFR BR/FG INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY AT THE
USUAL SITES...LWB/BCB/LYH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.
REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.
MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN
LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NEAR OR WEST OF KLWB WITH DONE ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA.
OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AT OR AROUND SUNSET. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED AS COMPARED TO
REALITY FROM THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLWB.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.
REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SSOUTHERNAND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.
MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.
THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.
WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAK CAP
APPARENT ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHERN WI. THIS CAP WILL ERODE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY 2 PM. THEN EXPECT PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P.
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI TODAY. THE PEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT MID EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL
BRING MOSTLY MID CLOUDS AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO SRN WI. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS THIS AFTN AND EVE WHEN STRONGEST SHORT
WAVE AND SFC TROUGH SAG THROUGH SRN WI. ISOLD -SHRA ACCOMPANYING
VERY WEAK FORCING ATTM OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z.
WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW POISED TO AFFECT SRN WI ALL DAY SO NOT IMPOSSIBLE STRAY
-SHRA COULD POP UP MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO MAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS PM. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN WI TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE SOME -
SHRA LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MRNG IN THE
EAST.
MUCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO REACH THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WEAK SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPS MAY RESULT IN SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED WITH A FEW
VORTICITY MAXIMA HELPING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TIME TO
TIME AS WELL. COOLEST 925 TEMPS ARE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS
CELSIUS WITH A PUSH TOWARDS 20 CELSIUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAKES A SHIFT EAST THOUGH STILL
NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME POPS AS LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ESPECIALLY INTO ERN WI. THE GEM IS SLOWEST ON THE DEPARTURE OF
ANY LINGERING VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE GEM AND GFS TRANSITION TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A FAIRLY BENIGN THOUGH SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PROGGD FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STICK WITH THE DRY FORECAST. 925 TEMPS WARMER STILL REACHING
THE LOW 20S CELSIUS. SO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER 80S COMING BACK.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI FROM THE
NORTH...MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA
TIED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA IN EITHER SCENARIO SO WILL RETAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLD TO
SCT CONVECTION WL THREATEN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAKES DIRECT HIT AT AIRPORT. SMALL HAIL A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NOW HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA
TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED SURFACE BASE CAPE TODAY. WITH
THE LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR/ARW/NAM 4KM...INDICATE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS THE LATEST 29.03Z RAP/29.00Z NAM SHOW
0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 29.00Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW SOME CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
THURSDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREATS LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS
TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING SOUTHEAST THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE SCT COVERAGE...CONTINUED WITH A VCSH AT KLSE IN THE
20-01Z TIME-FRAME. THE -SHRA OR ANY -TSRA COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF/
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN THE RAIN CORES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS IN THE 4K-6K FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 4-8KT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED TONIGHT AND
ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR IN THE VALLEYS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
647 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NOW HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA
TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED SURFACE BASE CAPE TODAY. WITH
THE LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR/ARW/NAM 4KM...INDICATE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS THE LATEST 29.03Z RAP/29.00Z NAM SHOW
0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 29.00Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW SOME CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
THURSDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREATS LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS
TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE SCATTEREDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DUE TO THIS...VICINITY SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE KLSE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A
BROKEN 5 TO 7K DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP THIS TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NOW HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA
TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED SURFACE BASE CAPE TODAY. WITH
THE LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR/ARW/NAM 4KM...INDICATE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS THE LATEST 29.03Z RAP/29.00Z NAM SHOW
0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 29.00Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW SOME CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
THURSDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREATS LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS
TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH PERIODS OF VFR CLOUDS AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY OVER WI TUESDAY AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WOULD EXPECT MORE WEATHER EFFECTS OVER WI...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KLSE NOW AS IT APPEARS SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. IF THE INTENSITY IS STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE SHOWERS...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE FURTHER EAST OF THE KLSE AIRFIELD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT HOTTER DAYTIME A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS A BIT MORE THAN TUESDAY. HAD
ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF DOUGLAS. THIS STORM ALSO HAD VERY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...ALSO NORTH OF DOUGLAS.
AS OF 930 PM...THE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS NEAR
KITT PEAK HAD WEAKENED. A FEW STORMS WERE STILL OCCURRING IN FAR NRN
GREENLEE COUNTY...SRN APACHE COUNTY AND SW NM.
FURTHER SOUTH...A DISTURBANCE ROUNDED THE BASE OF LARGE INVERTED
TROF THAT IS OVER SRN BAJA. THIS FEATURE HELP WITH LARGE MCS OVER
SRN SONORA/NRN DURANGO MEXICO. NO SIGN OF A STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM
COASTAL OBS HEADED INTO THE GULF.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL HOLD ON TO VERY LOW END POPS FROM TUCSON SOUTH
AND EAST AS LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATING THAT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE...BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WIND...WAS OVER CENTRAL DURANGO MEXICO
MOVING NORTH. NOT QUITE SURE THAT THE MODEL HAVE CAPTURED THIS
FEATURE AND COULD BE A WILD CARD IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SONORA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS BRINGING A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. BEFORE THEN STILL WORKING ON
RECYCLED MOISTURE BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/21Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW QUICK POP UP -SHRA/TS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA DVLPG AFT 31/18Z...MAINLY S
AND E OF KTUS. SFC WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY
EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY
MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITON TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGHTENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE OME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINEUD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN ARAES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY
OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THIS FEATURE EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND
SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO VARY BETWEEN PARTY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
844 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD-UP AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION IS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE
COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT WINDS TO
TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
URBAN AREAS A LITTLE WARMER. ELSEWHERE TEMPS SHUD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 50S.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH NERN IL AND NWRN IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...DIURNAL CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN...BUT THE REGION REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME ISOLD SHRA OR AN EVEN MORE ISOLD TS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DURG THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY DIURNAL PCPN WILL DISSIPATE AND AND RESIDUAL
PCPN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INVOF ON OF THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE AND A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SFC. UNDER PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK GRADIENT PATTERN
AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE WILL PENETRATE.
CERTAINLY...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE
COOLING WILL PENETRATE. SO...WILL KEEP THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A BIT
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS FAR AS LAKE INFLUENCE IS CONCERNED AND
LIMIT THE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. UNDER THE COOL
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F OR SO. TIMING OF PERIODS OF PCPN
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WHILE NO DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...THERE
SHOULD BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY...WITH
INLAND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT A WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTING AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL CREEP INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW...SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN...SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST
WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMING
TREND COULD BE BRIEF AS A WEAK UPPER LOW HANGS BACK OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT
BUILD ANY FARTHER EAST THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...THE SFC
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PCPN.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* ISOL -SHRA WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF TSRA.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH MANY SITES INDICATING CALM
WINDS AND THE EARLY STAGES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING FOG TO BE
THE WORST AT GYY WITH IFR FOG PSBL. DPA WILL ALSO SEE MVFR FOG.
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE MIXING EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS PSBL. THE STRONG FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SHORELINE. ISOL SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND NORTHERN IL. CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE SO BACKED OFF ON PRECIP BY
REPLACING THE VCSH WITH A PROB30. STABILITY WILL LIMIT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA COVERAGE AND LOCATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A VERY VERY LOW CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 730 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Diurnal clouds quickly fading, leading behind some cirrus left
over from convection in the central Plains, as well as a smoke
layer coming in from the northwest. Have updated the sky grids to
lower the cloud cover, primarily over the next 6 hours or so. This
did not impact the zone forecasts, although an update was sent to
that product to remove the late afternoon period. Temperatures
appear on track and no adjustments needed.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1128 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Not much needs to be changed with the previous TAF set.
Light/variable winds overnight to become more westerly for a time
late Thursday morning into the afternoon, then light/variable
again in the evening. Have a bit of concern with potential for
light shallow fog toward sunrise, though this would have no
substantial depth as the forecast soundings show dry conditions in
the lower levels. Will leave this out for now and continue to
monitor.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
An upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will
continue to keep Illinois in an unseasonably cool air mass into the
weekend. Chances of spotty showers or storms will continue through
Saturday, then a dry period may develop as into early next week as
upper level ridging advances into IL. Warmer conditions appear in
the far extended as high temps approach normal on Tue and Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
A few showers bubbled up this afternoon northeast of a line from
Bloomington to Mattoon. Any lightning through 230 pm remained in
Indiana closer to the better mid-level instability. RAP sounding
analysis east of Champaign showed only 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE for
storm updraft development in our counties, which supports the
limited vertical development observed visually and on satellite.
We expect any showers in our northeastern forecast area to
dissipate by 00z/7pm, so no precip was included in the evening
grids. The diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate with the
passage of sunset as well, providing clear skies overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, creating
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Lows should dip into the
mid to upper 50s in most locations. A few spots could linger in
the low 60s depending on localized surface dew point trends.
Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a few isolated
afternoon showers east-northeast of PIA to BMI to MTO. Highs
will top out in the low 80s with relatively comfortable dew points
around 60F.
Friday and Saturday will feature the passage of stronger 500mb
shortwaves, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and
storms. We still expect mainly 30-40% coverage on both days, but
thunder potential will be higher due to deeper mid-level
instability and increasing moisture. Highs will still remain below
normal in the low 80s through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.
The upper level low will shift east of Illinois for Sunday through
Monday with upper level ridging providing dry conditions both days.
Slow warming will begin...with highs by Monday approaching the
middle 80s. Storm chances are expected to return on Tuesday and
Wednesday the next series of shortwaves roll over the top of the
ridge in the Plains. No strong to severe weather is anticipated at
this point. A warm front developing north of IL will help
southerly flow bring mid to upper 80s into our forecast area,
which are closer to normal for early Aug.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.
OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 68 82 67 87 / 60 40 30 20 20
MLU 81 66 82 63 87 / 60 40 40 30 30
DEQ 70 64 79 65 85 / 80 30 20 10 10
TXK 76 64 80 65 86 / 80 30 20 10 10
ELD 76 63 81 64 86 / 70 40 30 10 20
TYR 82 68 83 64 88 / 60 30 20 10 10
GGG 78 68 82 65 88 / 60 30 20 10 10
LFK 88 72 86 67 90 / 50 40 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS AGAIN REDEVELOPED OVER SE
OK/N TX NEAR AND N OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX...ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX INTO SE TX. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR DTO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BNDRY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO THUNDER INTO THESE
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR 10KFT GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
TIME AS THE SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK/SW AR...WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND/AFTER 12Z ACROSS SW AR. IN ADDITION...LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE TX AND ADVECT N INTO DEEP E TX AROUND 12Z AS
WELL. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/NW LA BY 12Z...WITH IT POSSIBLY DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM W TO E BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...AS A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC FRONT SHIFT ESE INTO E TX. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE E TX/SHV
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FG LOOK TO SET IN LATE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSE AFTER 15Z. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 81 69 83 69 / 50 50 40 30 20
MLU 65 82 67 83 68 / 20 50 40 40 30
DEQ 66 72 64 80 65 / 80 60 20 20 10
TXK 67 77 64 81 67 / 80 60 30 20 10
ELD 66 77 64 82 66 / 60 60 40 30 10
TYR 72 83 68 84 70 / 60 50 30 20 10
GGG 72 82 68 83 69 / 60 50 40 20 10
LFK 73 90 72 87 71 / 30 40 40 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS RELAXED
PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A SOUTH
WESTERLY COMPONENT.
LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS AFTERNOON A
SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND EVEN THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT
POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET
NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.
THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.
AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.
THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
POCKETS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT...VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM 22
TO 01.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.
WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE. THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.
THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A
DECAYING MCS OVER SONORA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED NEAR SELLS AND GREEN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO NERN SONORA AND ACROSS SWRN NEW MEXICO. 31/08Z
RUC HRRR DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL THRU ABOUT MID-MORNING. RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
A POTENTIAL SCENARIO FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS THAT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED FOR THE
SCENARIO CONSISTING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOWS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST SIMILAR TO WED. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
FRI...
A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR FRI DUE TO THE
PROGGED MOISTURE INCREASE AND A MORE FAVORABLE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IS A
MORE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NW OF TUCSON. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE FRI NIGHT.
SAT-SUN...
31/00Z GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS WERE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
INCREASED POPS VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. GFS/ECWMF ALSO
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE OVER SE
AZ...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN AZ AS WELL AS OVER SRN
CHIHUAHUA. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS MAY ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS
SUN AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO NRN AZ.
AT ANY RATE...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY SAT...AS WEAK
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TRANSLATES INTO SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
MON-WED...
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO SE AZ
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA...AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TUE-WED UNDER WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER NEXT WED.
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU SAT FOLLOWED BY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA AS
WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 8-15K FT AGL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE INTO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A DRYING TREND
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HERNAN STREAM THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
YET...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION WITH
THE MOISTURE TAP CUTTING-OFF AS THE DISTRICT TRENDS TOWARD A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE START OF DRIER WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE AS A DAILY OCCURRENCE OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ABUNDANT FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOREOVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY DIFLUENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING FOR WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS. HRRR MESO-SCALE MODEL INITIATES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT AROUND NOON AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD REMAINS AT AROUND 1000 FEET
MSL. WHILE NOT SHALLOW...THE HEIGHT WILL NOT PROMOTE ANY COOLING
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS NO MARINE AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER
INLAND. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM KSFO TO KLAS
REMAIN AT 6MB OVER BELOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY MARINE AIR PUSH INTO THE
VALLEY...OR ANY STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP AND MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVEN IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EVENMORE...MODELS SHOW A LOWERING OF PRECIP-WATER OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE CONVECTION MAY POP-UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIP VALUES MAY REMAIN VERY LIGHT TO AROUND
TRACE VALUES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ABOVE TRACE VALUE PRECIP IN
THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP THE LONGER TERM RAIN AMOUNTS AT AROUND THE
ZERO VALUE. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS ATTEMPT FORM A
WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS POINT...THIS
MAY BE MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN THEN A WEATHER MAKING FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KFAT 08-02 112:1908 83:1953 82:1908 53:1956
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
KBFL 08-02 109:1979 86:1976 84:1977 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.
UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.
WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.
WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
735 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.
WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.
WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON....SOME STORMS COULD BE STRING TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z TO
21Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Some models are still indicating the potential for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the northeast part of our area this
afternoon and early this evening - particularly NMM-core WRF
models. Our local WRF-ARW and the HRRR do not generate much
convection, and most of the larger scale models don`t show much
QPF either. The latest objective RAP analysis shows an area of
weak convergence and a surface dewpoint gradient very near I-75.
Given that there is a focus for some convective development later
this afternoon, we will maintain around a 20% PoP near I-75.
Otherwise, it looks to be another dry and mostly sunny day with
highs in the low-mid 90s. The inherited forecast is generally on
track, so only minor tweaks were made to account for the latest
observational data.
&&
.Prev Discussion [314 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]
Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.
.Marine...
Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.
.Fire Weather...
With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.
.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 69 94 71 93 / 0 0 20 20 40
Panama City 88 74 88 75 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
Dothan 90 69 92 71 92 / 0 10 40 20 50
Albany 91 69 93 71 92 / 20 20 50 30 50
Valdosta 96 69 95 71 92 / 20 20 30 20 50
Cross City 93 69 92 71 92 / 10 20 20 20 40
Apalachicola 89 70 88 72 88 / 0 10 10 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG. SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TRIGGERING DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND
IT...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DROP MENTION OF FOG AND TO LOWER SKY
COVER A LITTLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAP SOUNDING INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT POPS HOWEVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS
LIKELY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU 18Z-FRI
00Z.
TEMPS...AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START THEIR WEAK WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S. THIS WAS HANDLED BEST BY ALLBLEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING NECESSARY LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT WAVE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER WAVE STALLS.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY COMING OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS THE FORMER ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WABASH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
REGIONAL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE BY TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER BEFORE
STALLING OUT. PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
1415Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE AT LAF BY 12Z AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS MORE FOG...MAINLY AT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND
FRIDAY AFTER 16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TRIGGERING DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND
IT...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DROP MENTION OF FOG AND TO LOWER SKY
COVER A LITTLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAP SOUNDING INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT POPS HOWEVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS
LIKELY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU 18Z-FRI
00Z.
TEMPS...AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START THEIR WEAK WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S. THIS WAS HANDLED BEST BY ALLBLEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING NECESSARY LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT WAVE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER WAVE STALLS.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY COMING OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS THE FORMER ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WABASH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
REGIONAL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE BY TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER BEFORE
STALLING OUT. PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE AT LAF BY 12Z AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS MORE FOG...MAINLY AT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND
FRIDAY AFTER 16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.
WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE. THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL IMPACT KLBF EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO N
CENTRAL NEB...WELL EAST OF KVTN AND KLBF. A SECOND WAVE WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ONE WILL BE FURTHER WEST WITH
AREAS FROM KVTN TO KBBW AND POINTS EAST TO POSSIBLY SEE SHOWERS.
MODELS KEEP KLBF WEST OF THE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER A FEW DO HIT KVTN.
LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...SO NO MENTION IN KVTN TAF. ALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING WITH QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF 5K CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 31.14Z. THEER MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01.02Z AND 01.05Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS DIRES OUT SO MUCH DURING THE
DAY...THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER
WITH STILL A RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE
FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION AND HEADED SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO TELLER
COUNTY OR CROSS THE SANGRES...THEY WEAKEN QUICKLY. COOL STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PERSISTENT CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR....WHICH HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE FROM THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY EASTWARD...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION WHICH MOVES INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE HRRR RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER STORMS STAYING FURTHER WEST OF
THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
REACHING WALDO CANYON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS STORMS
WILL WEAKEN. APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE I25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THE UPSLOPE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN OVER TELLER COUNTY. LATEST
NAM STILL KEEPS PW OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTHWARD. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. STILL APPEARS
TO BE CAPPED FURTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS BY THE KANSAS BORDER.
OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOSTLY STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON
STORMS. - -PGW--
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...PUSHING BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO NM OVERNIGHT. WILL END POPS MOST AREAS LATE
FRI EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW POPS PAST 06Z FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NM BORDER. FOR SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM UTAH INTO WRN CO...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD. MAX
TEMPS WILL FINALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY
AUG...THOUGH EVEN WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY NOT REACH
90F. HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD SUN...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-25 LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN EVENING. MAXES SUN
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH HIGH OVERHEAD...AND A FEW 90S MAY
FINALLY REAPPEAR ON THE PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM MON WHILE
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING...SHOULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN UPTURN IN PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY OVER NRN CO TUE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COULD AID IN CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUE
EVENING. DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WED/THU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM MON/TUE MOST LOCATIONS...THEN
GRADUALLY COOL WED/THU AS UPPER HIGH RETREATS AND COOLER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014
KCOS AND KPUB...CHANCES FOR THUNDER HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING
AND REMOVED VCTS FORM TAFS. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB
VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL DECREASE STABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES.
KALS...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
414 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 PM EDT...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND AN H500 CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON IS IMPACTING THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
PRODUCED SOME QUARTER-SIZE HAIL IN SARATOGA CTY WITH A FEW DOWNED
TREES. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 250-750 J/KG
HAS LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DESPITE RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS. THE COLD
POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH H500 TEMPS OF -19C
OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS THE CELLULAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 6-8 PM. WE ENDED THE
POPS AROUND THAT TIME...WITH THE SKIES CLEARING...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH.
THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.
UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH A
COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 135 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADITIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.
TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.
TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.
AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.
ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.
TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK. SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE. AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED. TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.
RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.
UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.
THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.
RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.
AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...TRIGGERING DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND
IT...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DROP MENTION OF FOG AND TO LOWER SKY
COVER A LITTLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAP SOUNDING INDICATES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT POPS HOWEVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS
LIKELY TODAY. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU 18Z-FRI
00Z.
TEMPS...AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START THEIR WEAK WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE LOW 80S. THIS WAS HANDLED BEST BY ALLBLEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING NECESSARY LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THAT WAVE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES IF UPPER WAVE STALLS.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW. IN
ADDITION...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY COMING OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS THE FORMER ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE WABASH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE
REGIONAL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE BY TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER BEFORE
STALLING OUT. PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG FRIDAY MORNING AT THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS....ESPECIALLY KLAF. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND FRIDAY AFTER
16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER ALONG
THE RED RIVER SOUTH OF KOUN. SEVERAL VERY WEAK TROFS RAN FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NORTHEAST OF KONL. SEVERAL WEAK
TROFS RAN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST OF KCID/KIOW. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY WEAK FOR PEAK HEATING. RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE 700MB WHICH IS PLAYING INTO THE
LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE FAR EAST AND WEST SECTIONS BEING
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED.
AFTER SUNSET...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA. INITIALLY DOWNWARD MOTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SOME VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. THUS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY
SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD
FIRE OFF NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS BY MID DAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. AS SUCH...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANGING LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
DOMINATES THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MAIN SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS IA
AND MN FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD SURGE INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH. THUS SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY... BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT...COULD SEE
SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY IS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPRESS AND CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY EVENING...THEN LOWER POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER MN
AND WI. THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN US WILL SLOWLY
FLATTEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SETTING UP WEAK...GRADUALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN
THE REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES SET UP...WILL HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MCS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
CWFA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE GULF IS PROGGED
TO BE MORE OPEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/01 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET BUT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...AND...THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA
OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS AT BEST 5 PERCENT. AFT 06Z/01 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BUT IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE
700MB. RAP TRENDS KEEP THIS CAP IN PLACE UNTIL NEARLY SUNSET SO
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES GET GOING WOULD BE SHALLOW IN NATURE.
ANOTHER VARIABLE IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS THE THIN HAZE OF
ELEVATED SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO FILTER THE
HEATING FROM THE SUN. THIS FILTERING IS VERY SUBTLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE BUT IT IS THERE.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP BUT ANY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY 2 HOURS AWAY FROM
OCCURRING. LIKE YESTERDAY IT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VERY WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AM WITH
WEAK RIDGING SOUTH AND SUBTLE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EVIDENT IN MSLP
FIELD AND OBS FROM EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IA. MAINLY CLOUD-FREE
BUT HAZY SKY WITH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN RIVER VLYS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. STAGNANT/BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES WITH DEEP
LAYER CYCLONE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING EASTERN HALF OF CONUS...WHILE RIDGING
PERSISTS OUT WEST. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION INJECTED WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES... MOST NOTABLY A PAIR
LOCATED UPSTREAM WITH LEAD VORT DIVING S/E THROUGH ND AND ANOTHER
VORT JUST BEHIND IT OVER SASKATCHEWAN... WHICH MAY HAVE SOME ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TDY/TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CANADA TO MAINTAIN MILKY HAZE IN OUR SKY TDY WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS OF SCT-BKN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE AM THROUGH PM.
TEMPS TO WARM 1-3 DEGS MANY LOCATIONS FROM YSTDY WITH WARMING OF
AIRMASS (1-2C AT 850 MB)... WITH LOWER 80S COMMONPLACE. CONTINUE WITH
STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTN MAINLY EASTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO SUBTLE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BUT WOULDN/T AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE A CLEAN
RADAR EITHER WITH CAPPING INVERSION IN 600-700 MB LAYER EVIDENT IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SAMPLED ON 00Z DVN RAOB... AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
FURTHER AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LEAD VORT MAX FROM ND. POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALBEIT WEAK BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN CWA
LATE TDY IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX... AND THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ERODE MID LEVEL CAP AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OR PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN CWA LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. THE SECONDARY
VORT OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR
PERCOLATION OF ISOLD CONVECTION WELL AFTER DARK... THUS WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND COOL DRAINAGE AREAS BENEATH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG ALSO ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO AUGUST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE TROUGH ACTUALLY
BECOMES REINFORCED WITH A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING DOWN INTO
THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
-15C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PAINT SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE 10-11K FT WHICH MAY SUPPORT NEAR
SEVERE HAIL IN SMALL BUT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH CAPES PUSHING INTO
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
CHANGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MIDWEST WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/
SOUTHERN PLAINS SO RIDGE RIDERS MAY TRIGGER PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE A
MEANDERING WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SETS UP THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT
AND STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
EARLY AUGUST.
WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOKING INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE BREAKS OFF FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER IN OR NEAR THE DVN CWA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 70S LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/01 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET BUT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...AND...THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA
OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS AT BEST 5 PERCENT. AFT 06Z/01 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AREA MOVING OUT OF FAR E TX INTO N LA...ALONG AND
JUST S OF I-2O. SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED FROM JUST NW OF
WACO TO JUST W OF PARIS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...AS THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO PIVOT SEWD. FOR THE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE WE`RE RUNNING
EVEN COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST AT MOST SITES...AND CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP WILL KEEP THESE AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND MOVED AREAS OF E TX
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL LA. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.
OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 68 82 67 87 / 60 40 30 20 20
MLU 75 66 82 63 87 / 60 40 40 30 30
DEQ 69 64 79 65 85 / 80 30 20 10 10
TXK 74 64 80 65 86 / 80 30 20 10 10
ELD 74 63 81 64 86 / 70 40 30 10 20
TYR 77 68 83 64 88 / 70 30 20 10 10
GGG 76 68 82 65 88 / 70 30 20 10 10
LFK 86 72 86 67 90 / 60 40 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK ZONAL
PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT OF THIS
RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD THE WIND WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY HAD A
SOUTH WESTERLY COMPONENT.
LATER THIS MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING AS DIABATIC HEATING MIXES OUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. THIS
AFTERNOON A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE MPXWRF...NMM...ARW...AND
EVEN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN ONCE AGAIN.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS HIGH...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW
SO CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES
GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
ONE MORE BROKEN RECORD DAY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEVOLVING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ECMWF IS MOT GENEROUS
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONFINE THE BEST
COVERAGE TO SRN WI. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4-7 PM.
THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EASING AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SPILLING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WHILE IT
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INITIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND...IT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS THE CFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CALLING FOR A DRY SECOND HALF OF
JULY FOLLOWED BY A DECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.
AFTER A CLEAR SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL REENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE.
THE MAIN SHOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SCENARIO SET TO PLAY OUT...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED 5 TO 6 DAYS
OUT...DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAINFALL. GENERALLY PREFER THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FAVORING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
AND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
WITH A SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING MCS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. WILL LOOK FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THEN...INCLUDING THE WI TAF SITES. NOT
SEEING NEARLY THE INDICATORS THAT WERE PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR CREATING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MAY IMPACT NWRN WI THEN DRIFT
SEWD TO NEAR KRNH-KEAU. A STRAY SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AND WILL MONITOR/AMEND AS NEEDED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TMRW...MAINLY OVER
WI. THIS COMBINATION MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY EARLY-
TO-MID AFTERNOON TMRW...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN WI. TIMING IS STILL
AN ISSUE...LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE 18Z CUTOFF...SO THE THINKING
WAS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO UP TO 18Z TMRW THEN LATER TAFS CAN BETTER
REFINE THE THINKING OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS AOB 10 KT
THROUGHOUT THIS SET.
KMSP...VFR WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z TMRW. HOWEVER...AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WI TMRW AFTN AND SPREADS W...SOME DEGRADED CONDS
COULD IMPACT MSP LATER TMRW AFTN. ATTM...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR
BUT MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.
WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE. THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
KONL TO KBBW. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.
17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.
ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA.
WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.
THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.
17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.
ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR TSRA.
WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS WITH
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS WELL...BUT A BAND OF SHRA WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE FIELD THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS THRU EARLY EVENING. ANY SUNSHINE AT/NEAR THE FIELD PRIOR
TO THIS BAND MAY FIRE UP ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. IN GENERAL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS
MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 85% LOW 59% HIGH 91% HIGH 93%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 84% HIGH 95% MED 65%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 80% MED 62%
KGMU HIGH 94% MED 64% HIGH 95% HIGH 87%
KAND HIGH 87% MED 60% HIGH 100% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
010>012-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...WHILE THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE FOOTHILLS REGION
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL SC IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY LLVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE QUASI-WEDGE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR DOES PICK UP
ON THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND BRINGS IT SLOWLY NWD INTO
MID-EVENING WHEN IT TOO WEAKENS. IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE BASICALLY INTO
THE AREA WHICH IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN ATTM...THOUGH ITS HIGHEST HRLY
ACCUMS ARE OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. THE LLVL FIELDS FROM THE NAM BACK
UP SUCH A FCST...AS THEY SHOW THE CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THOUGH BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. LATEST MESO MODELS
GENERALLY BACK UP THE EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 210 PM EDT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM
EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN TO INCREASE IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING AS WELL.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
ROBUST ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ON THE SC FOOTHILLS...THAT AREA WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FORM AREAS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PEAK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS OVERNIGHT PEAK APPEARS TO
COINCIDE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TWO INDICES DO NOT
APPEAR TO OVERLAP IN HEIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH
WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
AN OSCILLATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT. ALSO...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER A WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL/DOWN TICK IN
COVERAGE OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE INDUCES THE FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN HIGH SO EXPECT THAT AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING OVER EASTERN SC WHICH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PW`S WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A GOOD BET. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE IS LIKELY MOST PLACES....WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR WHEN EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA LEAVING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
SW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE
SW WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WITH A LOW VFR CIG THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY DAWN. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAWN AS WELL. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...EVEN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DECREASE...AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NE.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL SITES AS
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE
TAKES CIGS DOWN FROM LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...THEN IFR BEFORE DAWN...AND EVEN LIFR AT KAVL. VSBY WILL
FOLLOW ABOUT THE SAME TREND...WITH SOME SITES IFR AT DAYBREAK...AND
OTHERS MVFR. IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUITE SLOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELING FROM
THE SE AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 86% MED 73% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 83% MED 75% HIGH 88% HIGH 90%
KAVL MED 75% HIGH 87% HIGH 91% MED 75%
KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 93% MED 71% MED 70%
KGMU HIGH 91% MED 76% HIGH 87% HIGH 90%
KAND HIGH 86% MED 69% HIGH 94% HIGH 90%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-
010>012-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE KLSE.
HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN HOW MUCH
DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS. 17Z DEW
POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT THEY WERE
LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING. INCLUDED A BCFG
SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE
A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT AND IF BR/FG CHANCES
AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION AND SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI MORNING IN THE 13-18Z
PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.
JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS