Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/30/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.
A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.
FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
911 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAINED
CONFINED MOSTLY TO PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT PROMPTED BOTH SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
A COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE OF THE FIRST STORMS TO DEVELOP
WAS OVER NORTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY...
WHICH BECAME SEVERE AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES.
AT ANY RATE...THE STORMS THAT MARCHED ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTY
FROM NEW MEXICO MADE IT AS FAR AS EXTREME NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY
AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CATALINAS...BUT DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE CURRENTLY SPILLING
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST PIMA
COUNTY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS. SO FAR NOT
MUCH DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...STORMS
CONTINUE FROM NEAR TOMBSTONE SOUTHWARD TO HEREFORD AND NACO AND JUST
SOUTHWEST OF BISBEE. THESE STORMS CONTINUE INTO NORTHEAST SONORA.
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY WILL SPREAD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE
REMNANT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...WESTERN
GRAHAM COUNTY AND EASTERN PINAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST IN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PHOENIX AREA.
I INHERITED 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PIMA COUNTY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. FOR NOW I
THINK I WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT FOR AREAS THAT ALREADY GOT
HIT...SUCH AS GRAHAM AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...BUT LEAVE THE REST
"AS IS". AFTER MIDNIGHT I HAVE BASICALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TYPE
POPS GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH WNW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL
THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER 29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4
TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM
STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS.
STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).
THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 29 2014...NONE.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-28 110:1980 89:1941 82:1980 55:1892
KFAT 07-29 113:1898 87:1896 78:2003 57:1950
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KBFL 07-28 118:1908 85:1941 84:1931 50:1914
KBFL 07-29 114:1908 87:1965 86:2003 52:1914
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.
SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.
SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PULL IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.
TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.
AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY
RAINS IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA. MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.
MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.
THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS. SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068-
072>089-093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.
THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE
06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.
THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER. GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.
THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER. GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE. DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.
00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING. THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS. OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH. THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.
THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH.
WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY
IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP
TO 800-850 HPA.
THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.
GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.
THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.
SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.
A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.
THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.
A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.
TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0
ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 30 30 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 20 60 20 0
GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0
MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 20 0
ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 40 10 0
VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies are mostly clear and winds have become light. Expect these
conditions to continue overnight and into the early morning hours.
Current forecast has a good handle on this, so no update needed tonight.
Auten
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies will quickly clear this evening and winds will become light
out of the west. These VFR conditions will continue at all TAF
sites next 24hrs. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms was
dropping south through northeast IL late this afternoon. This
could reach areas north of Champaign, but looks like it is moving
slightly east of south and should miss the TAF site this evening.
Will not have any pcpn mentioned at CMI but will continue to
monitor trends and see if VCSH is needed at some point. Pcpn
should also be dissipating as it moves south. Winds tomorrow will
be westerly at around 10kts with scattered CU around 5kft.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
716 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
218 PM CDT
FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DAILY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...WITHIN REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SERIES OF RELATIVELY MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE
OF WEAK RIPPLES PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM PROPAGATING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO MODULATE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN JUXTAPOSED ATOP
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL WARMTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WEAK/SKINNY MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CUMULUS CONGESTUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM NEAR ROCKFORD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.
CURRENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GROW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PEAK INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WANING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH ONTARIO SHORT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO
DURING PERIOD OF BETTER INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE FORCING WILL DECREASE
LAST...WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THESE DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TIED TO CONVERGENCE ZONES AS IS
THE CASE TODAY...WILL CONTINUE IN SIMILAR FASHION THURSDAY AS
WELL. OBVIOUSLY...NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AND THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS EVEN IN PLACES THAT DO. BY FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH MAY SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH A GREATER AERIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYTIME
PERIODS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH RETURNS THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 70S BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TO SLOWLY WARMING FROM UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW SUBTLE
COOL-DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SHRA CURRENTLY ONGOING IN WISCONSIN MOST LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS
SUN GOES DOWN BUT CONCERN REMAINS THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER.
* LAKE BREEZE LIKELY FOR MDW WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH NE/E WINDS. LAKE
BREEZE QUESTIONABLE FOR ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA TO FORM WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTN AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MERGED WITH LAKE BREEZE
AND PUSHED EASTWARD. WINDS AT ORD AND MDW HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST AT
10 KTS. SOME LINGERING SHRA NEAR ROCKFORD AND YORKVILLE HAVE
PERSISTED BUT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING AS THE SUN SETS THESE
WILL DISSIPATE MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY HAS IN THE
PAST HOUR. CONCERNS THEN TURN TO SHRA IN WISCONSIN WITH BETTER
COVERAGE THAN STORMS IN OUR AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED ON A
DECENT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT WILL WATCH THESE AS THEY
APPROACH THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT RFD
FROM 02Z TO 04Z DUE TO THIS ACTIVITY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SHRA ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND LAKE BREEZE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING IN THE MORNING HOURS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHRA FORMING AROUND 2PM AND
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED
VCSH AT 19Z FOR ALL AIRPORTS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA
DEVELOPING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL IF IT DOES OCCUR.
INTENSITY OF THE SHRA AND WEST WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO
GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTN. WILL LIKELY
SEE LAKE BREEZE PUSH THROUGH GYY AND MDW. AS ELUDED TO BEFORE
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH
THROUGH ORD. LAKE BREEZE UNLIKELY AT DPA. SHRA DIMINISHES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WINDS WEAKEN AS SUN SETS.
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SHRA IN WISCONSIN DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
ORD AND MDW
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies will quickly clear this evening and winds will become light
out of the west. These VFR conditions will continue at all TAF
sites next 24hrs. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms was
dropping south through northeast IL late this afternoon. This
could reach areas north of Champaign, but looks like it is moving
slightly east of south and should miss the TAF site this evening.
Will not have any pcpn mentioned at CMI but will continue to
monitor trends and see if VCSH is needed at some point. Pcpn
should also be dissipating as it moves south. Winds tomorrow will
be westerly at around 10kts with scattered CU around 5kft.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
0230Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SINK SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WHERE IT WILL IMPACT KIND OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS LINE INDICATED MFVR AT KIND AND
TEMPO/D IFR FOR ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 02Z.
AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH AND LATER DISSIPATES...CU SHOULD
SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK... ESPECIALLY
KBMG AND KHUF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINANT. W/NW WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LESS THAN 10 KT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SINK SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WHERE IT WILL IMPACT KIND OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS LINE INDICATED MFVR AT KIND AND
TEMPO/D IFR FOR ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 02Z.
AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH AND LATER DISSIPATES...CU SHOULD
SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK... ESPECIALLY
KBMG AND KHUF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINANT. W/NW WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LESS THAN 10 KT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
721 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
2030Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RADAR
TRENDS. ADDED IN VCSH TO KIND AND KBMG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
TIMED IN A THUNDERSTORM FOR KLAF FROM 21-23Z BASED A RADAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
HANGING ON LONGER AND FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY CALLED. LATEST
HRRR WAS CATCHING THIS AND USED THIS TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A SIGNIFICANT, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL, AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE 00-06Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, THANKS TO COUPLING
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT FROM THE EXITING MIDWEST JET AND PERTURBED
MONSOON FLOW FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO
COLORADO. THERE WAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH GREATEST AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION (AND SUBSEQUENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT) MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. EVERY NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION WE CAN GET OUR HANDS ON SHOWS THE SAME THING: A
SWATH OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL QPF, WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING
IN THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS WHERE
THE IMPORTANT 850-750MB MEAN FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP. THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE IN THE
GFS AND NOW THE LATEST 29.06Z RUN OF THE NAM12.
THERE ARE A COUPLE THINGS THAT ARE CONCERNING FOR A FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT: 1) THE MONSOON INFLUENCE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF FAIRLY HIGH CONTENT WATER VAPOR
(TROPICAL IN NATURE) ALL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. 29.00Z RAOB AT GRAND
JUNCTION, CO AND ALBUQUERQUE, NM BOTH SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
UP ABOVE 500MB (500MB MIXING RATIO AT OR JUST ABOVE 4 G/KG). 2)
ORIENTATION OF 750-850MB ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WITH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW. THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL SETUP IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION DURING THE TIME FRAME
IN QUESTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD,
WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATION OF MCS MOTION IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. TRAINING OF STORMS IN A HIGH-PRECIPITATION EFFECIENCY
ENVIRONMENT IS DEFINITELY A STRONG POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME AREAS SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. PER COLLABORATION WITH AMA, OUN, AND PUB, WE
DECIDED TO ALL JOIN IN ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE OFFICIAL QPF
GRIDS WILL REFLECT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A SCOTT CITY TO
JETMORE TO PRATT LINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OR TWO OF 4 OR
EVEN 5-INCH AMOUNTS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, BUT THIS LEVEL OF
DETAIL CANNOT BE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTAL,
THOUGH, AND WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS
2 AND 3 TIMEFRAME WITH RESPECT TO THE METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.
FOLLOWING THE MODELS, SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS WAS MADE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS
ADVERTISES THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF QPF, ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD EASILY BE ACHIEVABLE WITH TRAINING STORMS
IN THIS MIDLEVEL TROPICAL RELATIVELY WARM COLLISION-COALESCENCE
ENVIRONMENT. THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE THE UPPER 60`S WHERE THE HEAVIEST DEEP CLOUD
LAYER PRODUCES RAIN COOLED AIR THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A SIGNAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS, OCCASIONALLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS BY
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH THE 80S
THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. GCK COULD SEE A VICINITY SHOWER AFTER 14
UTC. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 63 68 60 / 40 100 90 50
GCK 83 63 69 57 / 40 100 90 40
EHA 79 62 72 60 / 40 90 70 40
LBL 80 63 72 61 / 40 100 90 50
HYS 87 63 73 61 / 20 60 70 30
P28 89 65 69 62 / 20 90 90 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 78 63 70 / 20 50 90 90
GCK 64 77 63 69 / 20 40 90 90
EHA 64 78 63 74 / 40 60 90 70
LBL 65 78 63 71 / 40 70 90 90
HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70
P28 66 83 65 70 / 20 40 90 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.
For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night. Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.
Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE
SINCE 0Z VERSION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW
FOR KGLD WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST THEN
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS FOR KMCK WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.
AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.
AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW
SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED
AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE...
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY
SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST
KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS
WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH
NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON...
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO
FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE
KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON
ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL
SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY
AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12
GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO
ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE NEARBY UPPER LOW AND COOL MID LAYERS ARE CAUSING PLENTY OF
STRATO CU THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...THE CIGS
ARE VARYING BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4K FEET AGL. A FEW POCKETS OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...
BUT THESE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR AVIATION CONCERNS. LATER TONIGHT
THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN A BIT MORE...TO THE 2 OR 2.5K FOOT
LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A
MINIMUM AT MOST SITES...THOUGH DID ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR BR AT LOZ AND
SME LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE UP AND SCATTER OUT TUESDAY
MORNING AT ALL THE SITES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SUNSET WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING
THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.
Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.
The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.
The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.
As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.
Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.
Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
In the wake of a frontal passage earlier today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. Northwest to north winds AOB 10
knots will continue through the period at KCGI/KPAH, but at
KEVV/KOWB expect northwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight, gusty
northwest winds between 15-01Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 01Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWRD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.
WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 70 92 69 88 / 30 10 0 10 30
MLU 93 66 90 65 87 / 30 10 0 10 30
DEQ 90 64 88 64 83 / 20 10 0 20 50
TXK 92 67 89 66 86 / 20 10 0 10 50
ELD 92 65 89 65 85 / 20 10 0 10 50
TYR 93 71 92 71 90 / 30 10 0 10 30
GGG 93 70 92 69 89 / 30 10 0 10 30
LFK 95 73 93 71 92 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.
WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 71 91 68 88 / 30 20 0 10 10
MLU 92 67 89 64 87 / 30 20 0 10 10
DEQ 89 64 85 63 83 / 20 10 0 0 30
TXK 91 67 88 65 86 / 30 20 0 0 20
ELD 91 67 86 64 85 / 30 20 0 0 10
TYR 92 71 91 70 90 / 30 20 10 10 20
GGG 92 70 91 69 89 / 30 20 10 10 20
LFK 94 73 92 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.
UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.
SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.
WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.
ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
656 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA. BAND OF HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS
ROTATING NEWD AS EXPECTED. TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HRRR TIMING IS RIGHT
ON. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
320 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH
MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO
WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE
FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.
FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1239 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1235 AM UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHWRS AND PSBLY AN EMBDD TSTM
ACRS ECENTRAL NH WEAKENING BUT SLOWLY DRIFTING E. MADE SOME ADJ
FOR POPS TO COVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...OTRW LOWERED
POPS ELSWHR OVER ERN AND OVER THE WATERS. HRRR SHOWS NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO ROATE NEWD ARND 11Z AND THEN NEWD IN SRN/WRN ME BY
14Z. HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL SO THIS TIMING IS ACCEPTED.
MADE SOME SIG ADJ TO POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. ALSO PUT IN
WORDING FOR HVY DOWNPOURS AND GSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
AS INDICES INICATE SOME STG TSTM ACTVTY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE FA
TODAY.
PREV FCST:
PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.
USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW.
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET
UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE
U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND
CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING
THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING
OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT
TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A
WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE VCSH AT CMX TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THEN HAVE VCSH AT SAW FOR THE LAST PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDER/ MAY DEVELOP NEARBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE VCSH AT CMX TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THEN HAVE VCSH AT SAW FOR THE LAST PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDER/ MAY DEVELOP NEARBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS 5KFT-10KFT. SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS SLIDES TO THE S. THERE
MAY BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH OCNL LOWER VSBYS THRU SUNRISE AT
IWD WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON MON
AFTN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A -SHRA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVNG WITH
THE APRCH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LLVLS WL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE VFR WX EVEN IF A -SHRA
IMPACTS ANY OF THE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
DELTA REGION AND WAS NEAR A VICKSBURG TO TO LOUISVILLE LINE AT 10
AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST
THAN IN THE EAST. THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED BUT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WIND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES THERE.
/22/
&&
.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING SOME LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROVIDING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 17Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
29/10Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT
TAF SITES KHKS...KJAN...KMEI AND KHBG. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
BETWEEN 10-14Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR
AFTER 14Z. /17/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.
WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.
COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 63 89 63 / 18 5 2 2
MERIDIAN 93 61 90 59 / 19 5 2 2
VICKSBURG 91 61 89 63 / 23 4 2 2
HATTIESBURG 93 67 91 64 / 30 18 4 2
NATCHEZ 90 65 88 64 / 30 12 7 2
GREENVILLE 91 65 87 63 / 10 4 2 2
GREENWOOD 91 63 85 59 / 10 4 2 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/17/26/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.
WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.
COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/
&&
.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 63 89 63 / 18 5 2 2
MERIDIAN 94 61 90 59 / 19 5 2 2
VICKSBURG 93 61 89 63 / 17 4 2 2
HATTIESBURG 96 67 91 64 / 26 18 4 2
NATCHEZ 93 65 88 64 / 26 12 7 2
GREENVILLE 91 65 87 63 / 16 4 2 2
GREENWOOD 91 63 85 59 / 14 4 2 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.
TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF
OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN
THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.
TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.
TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD
NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050
AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF LULL PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY BUT LOOK FOR RAPID EXPANSION IN
SH/TS COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AREAS THAT ARE SUNNIER
NOW WILL SEE THIS INITIAL RAPID EXPANSION BUT SH/TS WILL MOVE INTO
OTHER AREAS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENTLY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELING...EXPECT SAF/LVS/GUP TO BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY TS. USING VCTS AT ABQ/AEG/FMN/TCC AND ROW.
WILL UPDATE ACCORDING TO DVLPMENT AND RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A LONGER DURATION RAIN IMPACT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO CARRYING PREVAILING RAIN AFTER
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOMEWHAT TOWARDS LATE EVENING. ALSO
LOOKING AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AT MANY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GUP/SAF/LVS/TCC AND ROW. CANT RULE OUT IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BUT HARD TO PINT POINT RIGHT NOW. VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD SO EXPECT UPDATES ACCORDINGLY. SOME OF THE CELLS
WILL PRODUCE VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FOUND IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
OUR WESTERN ZONES. ALSO INCREASED/TWEAKED POPS/QPF FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE LATCHED ONTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING SWINGING NNE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING OUT
WEST...WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE NE ACROSS MUCH OF NW NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS ALL IN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FOR LATE JULY. A LATER START IS
EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS STILL IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES
OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY
16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF
SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/
FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL
BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP
THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS
SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A
BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.
DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.
NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES
OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY
16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF
SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/
FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECTING CEILING OF BKN030 ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXTREME NORTHEAST
INCLUDING KCAO THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AFTER SOME BRIEF MID DAY CLEARING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST...CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO BECOME ACTIVE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL
BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP
THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS
SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A
BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.
DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.
NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-526>532.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH
WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN
SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR
500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN
DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH
18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE
ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).
PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF
SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA.
MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS
MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND
INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF
THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE
WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER
NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH
MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED
AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF
THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED
TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY
POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR
EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.
BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.
BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.
BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.
PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
622 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.
S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.
S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
317 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.
S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1027 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK. A COASTAL FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...ACROSS EASTERN PENDER AND NEW HANOVER
COUNTIES THIS WAS THE LITTLE AIRMASS THAT COULD! DESPITE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY ONLY AMOUNTING TO 1000 J/KG...SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS DROPPED 0.59 INCHES AT THE ILM AIRPORT...0.27 INCHES IN
THE KINGS GRANT NEIGHBORHOOD A FEW MILES TO THE EAST...0.25 INCHES
IN SURF CITY...AND 0.17 INCHES IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WET GROUND HAS
PRIMED THIS AREA FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH
AMERICA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
SEASONAL MEAN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT -2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 800 MB PRODUCED A
MODERATE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700 EFFECTIVELY CAPPED OFF THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS...AT LEAST UP UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS AGO. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY SEABREEZE WINDS BLOWING ONSHORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NC FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE 21Z RUC SHOWS UNCAPPED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY
SUBSIDES...HOWEVER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WE WILL PROBABLY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
CUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED 150 MILES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAINING UNSEASONABLY COOL DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH INCLUDE:
61 IN WILMINGTON...1914
63 IN FLORENCE...1997
62 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...1954.
(NOTE: THESE RECORDS ARE CORRECTED FROM THE 300 PM DISCUSSION)
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A FLATTENED 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY FOR WED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS RETROGRADES A BIT ON THU...PWATS INCREASE IN THE AFTN HOURS
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE REMNANT
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY ALSO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE
THU...FURTHER MOISTENING THE COLUMN WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY
WED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST ATTM GIVEN THE LACK
OF A SEA BREEZE DUE TO WEAK LAND/SEA TEMP CONTRASTS. THU SEEMS LIKE
THE BETTER CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP POPS THU AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
AND EASTERLY SFC FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. WED NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FINALLY SEES THE DEEP
CUTOFF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OPEN UP AND RETREAT. DEEP
TROUGHINESS LINGERS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AS THE FLOW SPLITS
WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY REGIONS. HERE IN THE CAROLINAS THIS LEADS TO A DEEP
MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA PRONE
TO AT LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL SCATTERING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM
A NEARLY COASTAL POSITION ON FRIDAY TO WEST OF THE AREA/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BOLSTER THE LL MOISTURE AND SHOULD
YIELD AND UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE WEEKEND TRANSPIRES.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED IF NOT WASHED OUT
ALTOGETHER BY MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
RAIN CHANCES...BUT WOULD LIKE TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH OPTIMISM AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO STILL
SERVE AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOCI. THE DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE WEAKENING. THE BETTER BET FOR A SLIGHTLY QUIETER FORECAST
COMES ON TUESDAY WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS NO LONGER HAS ANY
LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE WESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SOME MODERATE CU IS WANING IN THE DYING LIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AFTER THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DIES IN AN
HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW...SWITCHING AGAIN TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH THE RESULTANT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
HAVE CLEARED THE COAST AND ARE MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY BECAME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AN HOUR AGO BUT TRENDS SUGGEST IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED
DOWN TO CAPE FEAR...AND WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SC COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD GIVE US
A PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON`S
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND ITS SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
SEAS CONSIST LARGELY OF A 1-2 FOOT 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...PLUS
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY WINDS CLOSER TO SHORE.
COMBINED SEAS ARE AVERAGING 2-3 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR WHERE THE SWELL IS HAVING THE EASIEST TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
RADAR REVEALS SEVERAL SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DEVELOPING NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE BOTH DAYS...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ250 WHERE SEAS WILL BECOME AROUND
3 FT ON THU. AS THE REMNANT FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE LIFTS BACK
TOWARD THE COAST...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE WATERS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WITH A BOUNDARY STALLED VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT
RIGHT OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY THE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE WINDS ACT TO LESSEN THE GRADIENT IN WAVE
HEIGHT ACROSS THE 20NM WIDTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES SO A GENERAL 3 FT
SEA STATE EXPECTED...A COMBINATION OF THE WIND WAVE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. OVER THE WEEKEND THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRAW
INLAND...REACHING THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL
LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE A VEERING TO SE OR EVEN S AT TIMES. LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND NO
APPRECIABLE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE NORMAL NEARSHORE WIND
INCREASE AND CHOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.
FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.
TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.
ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.
FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...
A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.
IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.
BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SKY IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF ERN
ND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.
TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SMALL SCALES VORTICITY LOBES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WEAK INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET BUT LINGER OVER THE LAKE. SO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERI...LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR THE LAKE.
TOWARD MIDDAY WIDELY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.
IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.
NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.
NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCING EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NEARLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF EACH HOUR
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EVEN MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE
DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE IN HENRY AND BENTON
COUNTIES. THIS TAIL END OF THE LINE MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
STRONG STORM STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE NONEXISTENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SOUTH.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS AS
CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW FOR OCCURRENCE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
BECOME NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEEDS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS
ON MONDAY WILL CLEAR MONDAY EVENING AS WELL.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1049 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY
STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A
BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT.
LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS
ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN
LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED
TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO
DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR ABILENE. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME DEVIANT
MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM WITH THIS IN
MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK UPON US AND
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.
WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 92 73 85 70 / 10 20 40 30 10
WACO, TX 74 97 74 89 70 / 10 10 20 30 20
PARIS, TX 69 81 68 78 66 / 10 40 80 50 10
DENTON, TX 73 89 71 83 67 / 20 20 50 40 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 71 82 66 / 10 30 70 50 10
DALLAS, TX 76 92 74 85 71 / 10 20 40 30 10
TERRELL, TX 72 89 72 83 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 94 73 87 69 / 10 20 20 30 20
TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 90 70 / 10 10 10 40 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 97 69 84 67 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR ABILENE. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME DEVIANT
MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM WITH THIS IN
MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK UPON US AND
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.
WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 92 73 85 70 / 10 20 40 30 10
WACO, TX 74 97 74 89 70 / 10 10 20 30 20
PARIS, TX 69 81 68 78 66 / 10 40 80 50 10
DENTON, TX 73 89 71 83 67 / 10 20 50 40 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 71 82 66 / 10 30 70 50 10
DALLAS, TX 76 92 74 85 71 / 10 20 40 30 10
TERRELL, TX 72 89 72 83 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 94 73 87 69 / 10 20 20 30 20
TEMPLE, TX 73 97 72 90 70 / 10 10 10 40 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 97 69 84 67 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD TUE MORNING...STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CRP. BY
MID MORNING TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 100 75 101 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 106 79 106 78 106 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 102 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 92 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 75 103 73 103 / 10 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 100 74 101 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 100 75 101 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 106 79 106 78 106 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 102 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 92 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 75 103 73 103 / 10 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 100 74 101 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.
SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.
STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.
THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.
WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
WACO, TX 99 75 93 73 96 / 30 30 30 10 20
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 70 86 / 40 20 10 10 30
DENTON, TX 91 73 93 73 91 / 40 30 20 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 92 70 93 72 91 / 40 20 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 95 72 93 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 95 73 93 71 94 / 30 30 20 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 97 75 94 72 97 / 30 30 30 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO
THE MID-AFTERNOON HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
HEATING PROMOTES BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED
RESERVOIR OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED
UP ENOUGH FOR AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW
COOL AIR...AND ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY.
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO WACO TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.
STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.
THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.
WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
WACO, TX 99 75 93 73 96 / 30 30 30 10 20
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 70 86 / 40 20 10 10 30
DENTON, TX 91 73 93 73 91 / 40 30 20 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 92 70 93 72 91 / 40 20 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 95 72 93 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 95 73 93 71 94 / 30 30 20 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 97 75 94 72 97 / 30 30 30 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.
WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 20 20
WACO, TX 77 99 75 93 73 / 5 30 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 74 90 69 90 70 / 40 40 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 75 91 73 93 73 / 30 40 30 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 76 92 70 93 72 / 30 40 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 78 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 78 95 72 93 72 / 20 30 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 76 95 73 93 71 / 10 30 30 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 74 97 75 94 72 / 0 30 30 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 93 72 92 71 / 20 30 30 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE
EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT BLF AS
SHOWERS PASS...DRAWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY 08Z...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER THE
VICINITY OF KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 09Z...AND PROGRESS EAST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE
LINGERING STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.
THROUGH THE DAY...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF AS 850MB
FLOW IS ZIPPING ALONG AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT TO MIX IT DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH VFR EAST OF THE RIDGE AND MVFR WEST
AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.
VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUB SEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA
IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.
VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM OREGON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE MID/HIGH LEVEL (I.E. ABOVE 15,000 FEET). THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK
OBSERVED WAS OVER LAKEVIEW, OR AT 12,000 FEET. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS. THE
GFS OVER-DID THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER OREGON
TODAY. NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVEN TOUGHER TO ASSESS.
THE SHORT WAVE LIFT IS VERY WEAK. IF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE, THE LIFT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, IT DOESN`T LOOK
VERY LIKELY FOR ANY THUNDER. THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM DO SHOW SOME
WEAK ECHOES MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON PDT`S RADAR OVER OREGON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 20,000 FEET ON THIS AFTERNOON`S SOUNDING, I`D BE
SURPRISED IF ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE COULD REACH THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW. THE NEW NAM RUN HAS
US SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS ONLY
WARMS US ABOUT 2 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HEAT
ADVISORY ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. A
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 67 97 67 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 62 94 61 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 58 97 57 97 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 69 103 69 103 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 57 98 57 100 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 54 92 54 94 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 60 92 61 93 62 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 20
MOSES LAKE 64 102 64 103 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 71 102 71 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 64 101 65 103 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON
AREA.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.
NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.
TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
WITH BASES 5 TO 7 KFT WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH BY 06Z. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR TUESDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z. THE GREATER FORCING AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE EAST OF KRST/KLSE
BUT A SHOWER/STORM MENTION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NEXT TAF
CYCLE AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.
TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
IOWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN 6K DECK OF CLOUDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.
TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT
APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE
CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT
TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN
KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW
WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
906 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CO. REGIONAL RADARS DETECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE. CONVECTION WAS PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL /ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR/ WITH SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION CAUSED FLOODING IN PARTS OF ALBANY...CARBON
AND PLATTE COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WY AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RUNOFF. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ103-106-112-
114>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PLAN TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. OTHERWISE...SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE CERTAINLY REMAINS MOIST BOTH AT THE LOWER
LEVELS AND ALOFT. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A
BOUNDARY MOVING WEST AND PROVIDING FOCUS AND LIFT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS. CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL BECOMING PRIMARILY A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT. STILL...WITH ANY STORMS/SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW...
THEY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND FOCUS COULD BE
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STARK
UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PULL IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.
TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. A
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING. LATEST NAM DEPICTS
THIS FRONT MAKING IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CO MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY
RAINS IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...STARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 68 92 73 / 0 10 20 30
SSI 87 76 87 78 / 20 10 30 40
JAX 91 71 89 75 / 20 10 20 30
SGJ 90 75 87 76 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 93 69 91 72 / 10 10 20 20
OCF 93 70 92 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
...STORMY PATTERN THROUGH WEEK`S END...
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z. /60
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 70 50 60 30
MIAMI 92 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 89 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
218 PM CDT
FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DAILY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...WITHIN REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SERIES OF RELATIVELY MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE
OF WEAK RIPPLES PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM PROPAGATING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO MODULATE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN JUXTAPOSED ATOP
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL WARMTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WEAK/SKINNY MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CUMULUS CONGESTUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM NEAR ROCKFORD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.
CURRENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GROW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PEAK INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WANING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH ONTARIO SHORT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO
DURING PERIOD OF BETTER INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE FORCING WILL DECREASE
LAST...WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THESE DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TIED TO CONVERGENCE ZONES AS IS
THE CASE TODAY...WILL CONTINUE IN SIMILAR FASHION THURSDAY AS
WELL. OBVIOUSLY...NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AND THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS EVEN IN PLACES THAT DO. BY FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH MAY SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH A GREATER AERIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYTIME
PERIODS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH RETURNS THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 70S BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TO SLOWLY WARMING FROM UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW SUBTLE
COOL-DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS AT 10 KT BEHIND IT.
* SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A FEW TSRA PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT TODAY IS LOOKING
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING...BUT THINKING WE WILL
SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
WINDS BECOME NE ARND 10 KT BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE AT MDW AND
ORD....AND NNE AT GYY. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LAKE BREEZE
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MDW AND GYY AND MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ABOUT
ORD. WINDS SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW IN THE EVENING WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR INLAND IT TRAVELS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies are mostly clear and winds have become light. Expect these
conditions to continue overnight and into the early morning hours.
Current forecast has a good handle on this, so no update needed tonight.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight. VFR conditions
will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. A line of scattered showers
continues to move southeast through northeast IL tonight. Though
it looks like they could reach toward Champaignving they should
miss the TAF site overnight. Will not have any pcpn mentioned
at CMI at this time. Winds tomorrow will be westerly at around
10kts with scattered CU around 5kft and then dissipate again
tomorrow evening with lighter winds.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
218 PM CDT
FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DAILY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...WITHIN REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SERIES OF RELATIVELY MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE
OF WEAK RIPPLES PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM PROPAGATING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO MODULATE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN JUXTAPOSED ATOP
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL WARMTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WEAK/SKINNY MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CUMULUS CONGESTUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM NEAR ROCKFORD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.
CURRENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GROW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PEAK INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WANING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH ONTARIO SHORT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO
DURING PERIOD OF BETTER INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE FORCING WILL DECREASE
LAST...WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THESE DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TIED TO CONVERGENCE ZONES AS IS
THE CASE TODAY...WILL CONTINUE IN SIMILAR FASHION THURSDAY AS
WELL. OBVIOUSLY...NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AND THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS EVEN IN PLACES THAT DO. BY FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH MAY SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH A GREATER AERIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYTIME
PERIODS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH RETURNS THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 70S BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TO SLOWLY WARMING FROM UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW SUBTLE
COOL-DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SHRA PUSHING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT NORTHERLY
WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE WEST NORTHWEST WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
* LAKE BREEZE LIKELY FOR MDW WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH NE/E WINDS. LAKE
BREEZE QUESTIONABLE FOR ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA TO FORM WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTN AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MERGED WITH LAKE BREEZE
AND PUSHED EASTWARD. WINDS AT ORD AND MDW HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST AT
10 KTS. SOME LINGERING SHRA NEAR ROCKFORD AND YORKVILLE HAVE
PERSISTED BUT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING AS THE SUN SETS THESE
WILL DISSIPATE MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY HAS IN THE
PAST HOUR. CONCERNS THEN TURN TO SHRA IN WISCONSIN WITH BETTER
COVERAGE THAN STORMS IN OUR AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED ON A
DECENT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT WILL WATCH THESE AS THEY
APPROACH THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT RFD
FROM 02Z TO 04Z DUE TO THIS ACTIVITY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SHRA ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND LAKE BREEZE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING IN THE MORNING HOURS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHRA FORMING AROUND 2PM AND
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED
VCSH AT 19Z FOR ALL AIRPORTS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA
DEVELOPING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL IF IT DOES OCCUR.
INTENSITY OF THE SHRA AND WEST WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO
GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTN. WILL LIKELY
SEE LAKE BREEZE PUSH THROUGH GYY AND MDW. AS ELUDED TO BEFORE
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH
THROUGH ORD. LAKE BREEZE UNLIKELY AT DPA. SHRA DIMINISHES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WINDS WEAKEN AS SUN SETS.
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHRA TRENDS LATE THIS EVENING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL TRENDS WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEED LATE
THIS EVENING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE REACHING ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN AFTN
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
DANIELSON/RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies are mostly clear and winds have become light. Expect these
conditions to continue overnight and into the early morning hours.
Current forecast has a good handle on this, so no update needed tonight.
Auten
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Skies will quickly clear this evening and winds will become light
out of the west. These VFR conditions will continue at all TAF
sites next 24hrs. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms was
dropping south through northeast IL late this afternoon. This
could reach areas north of Champaign, but looks like it is moving
slightly east of south and should miss the TAF site this evening.
Will not have any pcpn mentioned at CMI but will continue to
monitor trends and see if VCSH is needed at some point. Pcpn
should also be dissipating as it moves south. Winds tomorrow will
be westerly at around 10kts with scattered CU around 5kft.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.
NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE. AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 61 82 63 / 80 30 0 0
HUTCHINSON 75 60 85 63 / 70 20 0 0
NEWTON 74 60 83 63 / 60 20 0 0
ELDORADO 75 60 83 62 / 70 20 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 62 81 63 / 90 40 20 0
RUSSELL 75 60 85 63 / 50 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 72 59 83 63 / 70 10 0 0
SALINA 80 60 88 64 / 40 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 76 60 85 63 / 60 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 76 62 81 62 / 60 50 20 0
CHANUTE 76 62 82 62 / 50 20 10 0
IOLA 76 62 82 62 / 40 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 76 62 81 62 / 50 40 20 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN
SEGMENT OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING E & WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WELL TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & A LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 80S WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) MODERATE & PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
2) RECORD COOLEST HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN WICHITA TOMORROW.
TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WOULD INDUCE WEAK LOWER-DECK FRONTOGENESIS FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO WESTERN OK. THE RESULTING 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK BORDER IS STRONG & WITH A COMPACT REGION OF
INCREASING LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE PANHANDLES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CERTAIN. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (ESPECIALLY OVER KICT COUNTRY). AS
SUCH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL KS WOULD BE
ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
WITH 3-HOURLY VALUES BETWEEN 3.0 & 3.5 INCHES. AS SUCH CHECKED SWING ON
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WITH THE WEAK E/W ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SINKING DUE SOUTH TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WOULD LIKEWISE GET FORCED SOUTH OF
THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOMORROW EVENING. WITH "HIGH" TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
THU-FRI:
VERY COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 7-10F BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THU & THU NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS KS. A WARMUP BEGINS ON
FRI AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF SETTLES SE ACROSS KS THEREBY INDUCING MODEST
SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NEXT WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS SLOWLY E FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
MON-TUE:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS LATE MON NIGHT & TUE
AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM THE CO/WY BORDER
TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROFFING
WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH HIGHS ~90F MON & TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 30TH:
WICHITA: 73 IN 1971
CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 70 59 82 / 20 80 30 0
HUTCHINSON 64 71 59 82 / 20 80 20 0
NEWTON 63 70 59 82 / 20 60 20 0
ELDORADO 63 70 58 82 / 20 70 20 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 64 70 60 82 / 30 90 30 10
RUSSELL 63 78 62 83 / 20 50 10 0
GREAT BEND 63 74 60 82 / 20 70 10 0
SALINA 64 79 61 84 / 20 40 10 0
MCPHERSON 63 73 60 83 / 20 60 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 63 71 60 82 / 30 50 40 10
CHANUTE 63 74 60 83 / 20 50 20 0
IOLA 62 76 60 83 / 30 40 20 0
PARSONS-KPPF 62 72 60 83 / 30 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.
AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
100 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK. A COASTAL FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...ACROSS EASTERN PENDER AND NEW HANOVER
COUNTIES THIS WAS THE LITTLE AIRMASS THAT COULD! DESPITE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY ONLY AMOUNTING TO 1000 J/KG...SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS DROPPED 0.59 INCHES AT THE ILM AIRPORT...0.27 INCHES IN
THE KINGS GRANT NEIGHBORHOOD A FEW MILES TO THE EAST...0.25 INCHES
IN SURF CITY...AND 0.17 INCHES IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WET GROUND HAS
PRIMED THIS AREA FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH
AMERICA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
SEASONAL MEAN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT -2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 800 MB PRODUCED A
MODERATE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700 EFFECTIVELY CAPPED OFF THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS...AT LEAST UP UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS AGO. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY SEABREEZE WINDS BLOWING ONSHORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NC FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE 21Z RUC SHOWS UNCAPPED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY
SUBSIDES...HOWEVER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WE WILL PROBABLY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
CUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED 150 MILES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAINING UNSEASONABLY COOL DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH INCLUDE:
61 IN WILMINGTON...1914
63 IN FLORENCE...1997
62 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...1954.
(NOTE: THESE RECORDS ARE CORRECTED FROM THE 300 PM DISCUSSION)
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A FLATTENED 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY FOR WED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS RETROGRADES A BIT ON THU...PWATS INCREASE IN THE AFTN HOURS
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE REMNANT
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY ALSO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE
THU...FURTHER MOISTENING THE COLUMN WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY
WED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST ATTM GIVEN THE LACK
OF A SEA BREEZE DUE TO WEAK LAND/SEA TEMP CONTRASTS. THU SEEMS LIKE
THE BETTER CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP POPS THU AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
AND EASTERLY SFC FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. WED NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FINALLY SEES THE DEEP
CUTOFF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OPEN UP AND RETREAT. DEEP
TROUGHINESS LINGERS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AS THE FLOW SPLITS
WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY REGIONS. HERE IN THE CAROLINAS THIS LEADS TO A DEEP
MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA PRONE
TO AT LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL SCATTERING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM
A NEARLY COASTAL POSITION ON FRIDAY TO WEST OF THE AREA/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BOLSTER THE LL MOISTURE AND SHOULD
YIELD AND UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE WEEKEND TRANSPIRES.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED IF NOT WASHED OUT
ALTOGETHER BY MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
RAIN CHANCES...BUT WOULD LIKE TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH OPTIMISM AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO STILL
SERVE AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOCI. THE DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BE WEAKENING. THE BETTER BET FOR A SLIGHTLY QUIETER FORECAST
COMES ON TUESDAY WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS NO LONGER HAS ANY
LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE WESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ROGUE SHRA
EARLIER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ILM TERMINAL WITH MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SKC. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST ISSUANCE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REDUCED
VSBY FROM BR ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT TO YIELD CALM TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...WITH
THE DAYS INSOLATION THE FA WILL OBSERVE SCT/BKN 5K TO 10K FOOT
CEILINGS. WINDS DURING DAYTIME WED WILL START OUT NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT...VEERING TO THE E AND SE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL TERMS DUE TO THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE LOWERED CEILINGS WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR NOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
HAVE CLEARED THE COAST AND ARE MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY BECAME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AN HOUR AGO BUT TRENDS SUGGEST IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED
DOWN TO CAPE FEAR...AND WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SC COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD GIVE US
A PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON`S
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND ITS SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
SEAS CONSIST LARGELY OF A 1-2 FOOT 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...PLUS
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY WINDS CLOSER TO SHORE.
COMBINED SEAS ARE AVERAGING 2-3 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR WHERE THE SWELL IS HAVING THE EASIEST TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
RADAR REVEALS SEVERAL SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DEVELOPING NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE BOTH DAYS...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ250 WHERE SEAS WILL BECOME AROUND
3 FT ON THU. AS THE REMNANT FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE LIFTS BACK
TOWARD THE COAST...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE WATERS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WITH A BOUNDARY STALLED VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT
RIGHT OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY THE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE WINDS ACT TO LESSEN THE GRADIENT IN WAVE
HEIGHT ACROSS THE 20NM WIDTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES SO A GENERAL 3 FT
SEA STATE EXPECTED...A COMBINATION OF THE WIND WAVE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. OVER THE WEEKEND THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRAW
INLAND...REACHING THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL
LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE A VEERING TO SE OR EVEN S AT TIMES. LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND NO
APPRECIABLE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE NORMAL NEARSHORE WIND
INCREASE AND CHOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MJC/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
256 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
131 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SE MI WHICH IS NOW SPREADING INTO LUCAS CO AND
THRU THE CANADIAN WATERS OF THE LAKE. FELL THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES ONTO THE LAKE WILL USE THE EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVE
LAKE WARMTH OVERNIGHT TO MAINTAIN AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND.
THUS WILL NEED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONGOING FORECAST.
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD
MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BUT STILL THINK SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN
EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE CANADIAN POLAR
TROUGH FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SRN WI ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF IT. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE RESIDE OVER THE REGION VIA THE UPPER
WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BUT PROBABLY LESSER COVERAGE THAN
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-110 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WED AM ALONG WITH LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SRN WI. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN
COOLED AIR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
CUMULUS CONGESTUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR WED
AFT AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER SE CANADA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.
THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.
WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.
MARINE...
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
512 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE FRESNO
AREA WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAINFALL NEAR CLOVIS BEING REPORTED.
THESE CELLS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH MADERA COUNTY.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT FOR THIS MORNING AS IR IMAGERY
IS INDICATING A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
411 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE REDWOOD COAST WILL SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W MENDOCINO COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT N AND NE
AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCLUDED 15% POPS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA...BUT EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
DRY AIR THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN DUE TO MONSOONAL FLOW TODAY.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE TRINITY HORN AND UP INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR COVERAGE TO TUESDAY`S PATTERN.
GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALTHO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LOWER 500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP...BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE
IS ONLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU LINE AND POINTS N.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON THU. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS...AGAIN FOCUSED
TOWARD THE TRINITY HORN.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TONIGHT AND
THU...BUT A SMALLER AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE REDWOOD
COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND. /SEC
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTERACTING
WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU BORDER. AT THIS TIME...
THE ZONE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER... WILL HIGHLIGHT TSTMS IN AN FWF HEADLINE. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM SUN PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS
REFLECTED BY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES IN MIAMI
SOUNDING AS WELL AS DATA FROM BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT. HIGHER
MOISTURE, TYPICALLY-HIGH INSTABILITY AND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH POINT TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL FOCUS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVECTION. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WARRANT VCSH INCLUSION AROUND
14-15Z...WITH VCTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE
CONSIDERED...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISN`T QUITE
SUFFICIENT. FOR NAPLES...SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT VCSH IS ONGOING NOW DUE TO ACTIVITY IN THE GULF AND
EVERGLADES. OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS AT
EASTERN TERMINALS TO SOUTHEAST. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 70 50 60 30
MIAMI 92 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 89 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR OVER INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS FILTRATED INTO
N-CENTRAL FL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW RESTING NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. WITH THAT
SAID...WE HAVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO ALONG THE SE GA COAST. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SURROUNDS THE FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SWD INTO EXTREME NE FL. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW AN
INVERSION AT 800 MB...WITH DRY AND WARM AIR IN MID/HIGH LEVELS.
LLVL VORTICITY NEAR THE COAST IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND OVER NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED POSSIBLY ALONG A LAND BREEZE.
THE HRRR HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND DEPICTS SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND OVER COASTAL
ZONES NORTH OF JAX BEACH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z
SHOWERS DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS AND CONTINUE WITH THE SEA BREEZE
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO BRUNSWICK AND JESUP. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE. HRRR SHOWS
SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 FOR REMAINDER OF NE FL COAST...AND
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF TO SINGLE
DIGITS FARTHER INLAND WITH EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE
GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND ARE MAINLY OFFSHORE EXCEPT
OVER NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SE GA COAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPDATE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 68 92 73 / 10 10 20 30
SSI 87 76 87 78 / 20 10 30 40
JAX 91 71 89 75 / 20 10 20 30
SGJ 90 75 87 76 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 93 69 91 72 / 10 10 20 20
OCF 93 70 92 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/SHASHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WARRANT VCSH INCLUSION AROUND
14-15Z...WITH VCTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE
CONSIDERED...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISNT QUITE
SUFFICIENT. FOR NAPLES...SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT VCSH IS ONGOING NOW DUE TO ACTIVITY IN THE GULF AND
EVERGLADES. OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS AT
EASTERN TERMINALS TO SOUTHEAST. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 77 / 70 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 70 50 60 30
MIAMI 92 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 89 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
High pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
River Valley is providing mostly sunny and cool conditions to
central Illinois this morning. Main question will be whether or
not any showers will develop within the cyclonic flow pattern
aloft. 14z/9am water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning
over Hudson Bay, with short-wave trough rotating around this
feature across southern Michigan. The influence of this wave will
likely remain NE of Illinois today, with scattered showers/thunder
developing across southern Michigan/Northern Indiana this
afternoon. Upper support will be weaker further W/SW, so am not
expecting much precip at all in Illinois. HRRR suggests isolated
showers may fire after 19z, mainly across northern Illinois.
Meanwhile, the NAM12 is completely dry. Have therefore scaled back
PoPs today, with only an isolated shower mention along/north of
I-74 this afternoon. Have also removed evening showers and gone
with a mostly clear forecast for tonight. Zone update has already
been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions expected at all central Illinois TAF sites for the
next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover at 4-5 kft MSL will develop
with daytime heating. Isolated light afternoon showers are
possible...mainly KMTO-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys unlikely. After 00Z...any shower activity/cloud cover
diminishing. Winds increasing to WNW7-10 kts by 15Z...becoming
light and variable by 00Z.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Forecast and overall atmospheric pattern slow to change right now
as an upper low remains parked over the southern tip of Hudson
Bay...with the trof dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. 500
mb ridge over the west, and sfc high pressure building into the
Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast driven by slowly
warming temperatures, still below normal for late July, light
winds, and afternoon showers. Next chance for a slightly more
substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives on Friday, with a
wave diving into the upper trof and helping to enhance the
dynamics. Overall, very little in the forecast warranting more
than a chance/scattered mention, and not many changes expected
until the pattern breaks later in the weekend.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy afternoon skies with slight chance for some
afternoon showers and iso thunder... with the better chances to
the northeast. High temperatures upper 70s/low 80s...and overnight
lows dropping to upper 50s/near 60 with mostly clear skies. Upper
low anchored over southeastern Canada keeps the weather in a
pretty stagnant pattern and below normal temps in the Midwest.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms moving in for Friday...
as a wave rotates through the trof and enhances chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models pretty consistent with
this feature...though coverage is not expected to be widespread
just yet. High pressure dominating into the weekend as the sfc
ridge axis moves into the region. Winds remain light and variable
and dry forecast as the upper trof finally starts to progress
across into the NE. Chances for more significant weather starting
to return Tues/Wed as a more active and progressive flow sets up
across the country.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
FOG WILL LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TO 16Z. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT PRESENT AT KLAN. THIS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE STORMS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT THIS POINT.
AFTER THE MORNING FOG...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGRY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NWRLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKACHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THERFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
513 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
235 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.Synopsis...
Another day of Sierra crest showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
(less coverage than today)...when a drying trend. Then a return
to Sierra showers and t-storms early/mid week next week.
&&
.Discussion...
Activity started pretty early today with showers and
thunderstorms along highest terrain from Near Plumas county all
the way south to Tuolumne County. Expect this activity to continue
off and on this afternoon but probably end a bit quicker than
normal by early afternoon as latest moisture plume pushes off to
the east. HRRR hinting at some weak possible returns in valley
near Sacramento...as there is some mid level instability in the
area...but rally lacking a trigger for valley and should result in
ACCUS.
Thursday...still some instability lingering around highest terrain
for isolated activity...less than today...again confined to crest.
Friday and Saturday...westerly flow pushes moisture and
instability out of area for dry weather. Should see temperatures
at to slightly above normal during this time. Rasch
&&
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Upper ridge positioned over the Intermountain West Sunday as weak
upper trough moves through NorCal. Increased mid-level
southwesterly flow Sunday will keep the threat of afternoon
thunderstorms outside of the forecast area with only a slight
chance over the higher Sierra Nevada, south of Highway 50, on
Monday. Models then depict upper ridging from the Desert SW
rebuilding northwestward over Interior NorCal next week. Mid-level
flow begins to turn more southerly Tue and southeasterly Wed with
another slug of monsoonal moisture working its way into the
forecast area. Threat of afternoon thunderstorms expands
northward along the Sierra Tuesday, through Western Plumas into
the Shasta and coastal mountains Wednesday. Near normal high
temperatures expected through early next week then warming upwards
of 5 degrees above normal Wednesday.
&&
.Aviation...
Upr rdg movs E as SWly flow alf with EPAC upr trof incrs Thu. Isold
tstms poss ovr hyr mtn trrn of the Cstl rnge, Shasta, Plumas, and
Siernev thru 05z Thu otrw VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs.
Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trnn and thru
Delta aftns into eves.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
926 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...DJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KFAT 07-31 114:1908 83:1976 81:1908 53:1895
KFAT 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
KBFL 07-31 110:1943 60:1916 79:1982 55:1905
KBFL 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR LOCAL AREA
WITH A MESO-LOW ANALYZED OVER JAX METRO AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW A SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO FORM AND MOVING TO NEAR I-95 IN SE
GA...BUT STILL PINNED TO THE NE FL COAST. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES NEAR THE SE GA COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. A PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD THE NE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL AND WILL FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TRACK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE BEYOND OUR WATERS
THIS EVENING. ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE OVER SE GA. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING. THE DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN AGAIN AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE 50S OVER INTERIOR SE GA AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND
SE GA COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY BUT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEABREEZE. POPS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SHORT WAVE AFFECTS GA. POPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...INCREASING TO AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVLES.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK JUST TO THE WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS GA. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES AND A SW STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTN/EVNG
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS NEAR THE EAST COAST BY
LATE DAY AS SEABREEZES MERGE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SE TUE
AND WED WHICH SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE IN SE GA MAY
AFFECT SSI AND HAVE VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE LATE AND THEN SE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRI THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND POSSIBLY REACH SCEC CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MIXING DOWN WILL LOWER RH`S TO NEAR 30
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET HEADLINE
CRITERIA. RH`S WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 92 73 92 / 10 30 30 40
SSI 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 30 40
JAX 71 90 74 91 / 10 20 20 40
SGJ 75 88 75 89 / 10 20 20 40
GNV 69 92 72 92 / 0 20 20 40
OCF 70 92 72 92 / 0 20 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN/NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH IN ALL 18Z TAFS AT START
TIME...BUT DELAYED VCTS UNTIL 19Z FOR EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO
LATE ONSET OF SEA-BREEZE. GULF-BREEZE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF
NAPLES...SO ELIMINATED VCTS THERE ENTIRELY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
BY 0Z...EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AFTER
SUNSET. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP LATE MORNING THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS AWAY FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS...MAINLY SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION...BUT SE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE ARE LIKELY MOST EASTERN TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS
REFLECTED BY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES IN MIAMI
SOUNDING AS WELL AS DATA FROM BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT. HIGHER
MOISTURE, TYPICALLY-HIGH INSTABILITY AND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH POINT TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL FOCUS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVECTION. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 77 91 / 40 60 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 80 91 / 50 60 30 50
MIAMI 79 90 79 90 / 40 60 40 40
NAPLES 80 90 79 87 / 30 50 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH NERN IL AND NWRN IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...DIURNAL CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN...BUT THE REGION REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME ISOLD SHRA OR AN EVEN MORE ISOLD TS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DURG THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY DIURNAL PCPN WILL DISSIPATE AND AND RESIDUAL
PCPN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INVOF ON OF THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS SERIES OF IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE AND A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE SFC. UNDER PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK GRADIENT PATTERN
AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW FAR INLAND A LAKE BREEZE WILL PENETRATE.
CERTAINLY...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE
COOLING WILL PENETRATE. SO...WILL KEEP THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A BIT
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS FAR AS LAKE INFLUENCE IS CONCERNED AND
LIMIT THE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. UNDER THE COOL
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F OR SO. TIMING OF PERIODS OF PCPN
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN THAN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL GENERALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WHILE NO DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...THERE
SHOULD BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY...WITH
INLAND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT A WEAK GRADIENT PERSISTING AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
NEAR THE LAKE. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL CREEP INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW...SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN...SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST
WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMING
TREND COULD BE BRIEF AS A WEAK UPPER LOW HANGS BACK OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT
BUILD ANY FARTHER EAST THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO...THE SFC
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR THE EXTEDNED FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPPING UP FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PCPN.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS JUST UNDER 10 KTS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA IS ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO
MAKE SOME GOOD PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO PUT THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
KMDW AROUND 1930 UTC AND THROUGH KORD IN THE 20 TO 21 UTC TIME
FRAME. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG BEHIND THE LAKE
BREEZE...WITH GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE LAKE BREEZE
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TERMINALS.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BE
THE THREAT FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON AN
UPTICK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD EVEN LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR CIG AROUND 4000 FEET AGL...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LOWER AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED...I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH AND LEAVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MEDIUM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
* LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING...SCHC SHRA LATE
IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY...CHC SHRA WITH A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SATURDAY...SCHC SHRA IN THE MORNING...CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
An upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will
continue to keep Illinois in an unseasonably cool airmass into the
weekend. Chances of spotty showers or storms will continue through
Saturday, then a dry period may develop as into early next week as
upper level ridging advances into IL. Warmer conditions appear in
the far extended as high temps approach normal on Tue and Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
A few showers bubbled up this afternoon northeast of a line from
Bloomington to Mattoon. Any lightning through 230 pm remained in
Indiana closer to the better mid-level instability. RAP sounding
analysis east of Champaign showed only 150-200 J/kg MLCAPE for
storm updraft development in our counties, which supports the
limited vertical development observed visually and on satellite.
We expect any showers in our northeastern forecast area to
dissipate by 00z/7pm, so no precip was included in the evening
grids. The diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate with the
passage of sunset as well, providing clear skies overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, creating
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Lows should dip into the
mid to upper 50s in most locations. A few spots could linger in
the low 60s depending on localized surface dewpoint trends.
Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a few isolated
afternoon showers east-northeast of PIA to BMI to MTO. Highs
will top out in the low 80s with relatively comfortable dewpoints
around 60F.
Friday and Saturday will feature the passage of stronger 500mb
shortwaves, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and
storms. We still expect mainly 30-40% coverage on both days, but
thunder potential will be higher due to deeper mid-level
instability and increasing moisture. Highs will still remain below
normal in the low 80s through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.
The upper level low will shift east of Illinois for Sunday through
Monday with upper level ridging providing dry conditions both days.
Slow warming will begin...with highs by Monday approaching the
middle 80s. Storm chances are expected to return on Tuesday and
Wednesday the next series of shortwaves roll over the top of the
ridge in the Plains. No strong to severe weather is anticipated at
this point. A warm front developing north of IL will help
southerly flow bring mid to upper 80s into our forecast area,
which are closer to normal for early Aug.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. SCT
to occasionally BKN diurnal clouds at 4000-5000ft this afternoon
will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies expected
overnight. The cycle will repeat on Thursday, with SCT diurnal
cloud cover once again developing by late morning/early afternoon.
Winds will be light from the NW this afternoon, then will shift to
the W/SW on Thursday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
202 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MID 80 HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PARKED OVER JAMES BAY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OVER CENTRAL WI AND IT
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT LOSES STEAM
THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN IL AND IN.
A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY SO THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BETWEEN THE LAKE BREEZE AND
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT. CAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO BELOW
500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING A TON OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY SO THINKING
THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL NOT
BE SEVERE...BUT MAY BE DOWNDRAFT DRIVEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
LIKE YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY SO EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS. SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE OUTLYING AREAS...BUT IN THE LOW 60S DOWNTOWN.
JEE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH
AN ESTABLISHED LONG WAVE...MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EACH OF THESE LOOK TO BRING SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT FOR ELONGATED CAPE
PROFILES NEAR PEAK HEATING. ALL IN ALL THESE CONTINUE TO PRESENT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
THERE CONTINUES FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON BRINGING AN UPPER/MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE SOUTHWARD FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS
SUPPORT HIGHER POPS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE AREA AND WHILE THE
MAGNITUDES OF BOTH MAY BE EXTREME /70 PERCENT PLUS/...THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED COVERAGE MORE SO THAN TODAY AND THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO DO HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. VERY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ADVERTISED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO STEER A COOL
FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH LARGE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REACHES. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO A WELL-
VERIFYING BLEND OF GUIDANCE BESIDES INCHING UP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONTAL FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-NE ARND 10
KT...THROUGH MDW AROUND 1930 UTC AND ORD BETWEEN 20 AND 21 UTC.
* WIDELY SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW TSRA ALSO
PSBL.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA IS ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO
MAKE SOME GOOD PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO PUT THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
KMDW AROUND 1930 UTC AND THROUGH KORD IN THE 20 TO 21 UTC TIME
FRAME. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG BEHIND THE LAKE
BREEZE...WITH GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE LAKE BREEZE
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TERMINALS.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BE
THE THREAT FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON AN
UPTICK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD EVEN LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR CIG AROUND 4000 FEET AGL...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LOWER AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED...I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH AND LEAVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH LAKE BREEZE TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING...SCHC SHRA LATE
IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY...CHC SHRA WITH A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SATURDAY...SCHC SHRA IN THE MORNING...CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY WITH
WITH SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE THAT PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST AT TIMES WHILE THE STRONGER PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CLOSER TO JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A COUPLE MORE WEAK TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LAKE AT TIMES THROUGH WEEKS END...WITH ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WHILE THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT ANY GIVEN TIME...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WOULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BOATERS...SO CAUTION IS URGED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
High pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
River Valley is providing mostly sunny and cool conditions to
central Illinois this morning. Main question will be whether or
not any showers will develop within the cyclonic flow pattern
aloft. 14z/9am water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning
over Hudson Bay, with short-wave trough rotating around this
feature across southern Michigan. The influence of this wave will
likely remain NE of Illinois today, with scattered showers/thunder
developing across southern Michigan/Northern Indiana this
afternoon. Upper support will be weaker further W/SW, so am not
expecting much precip at all in Illinois. HRRR suggests isolated
showers may fire after 19z, mainly across northern Illinois.
Meanwhile, the NAM12 is completely dry. Have therefore scaled back
PoPs today, with only an isolated shower mention along/north of
I-74 this afternoon. Have also removed evening showers and gone
with a mostly clear forecast for tonight. Zone update has already
been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. SCT
to occasionally BKN diurnal clouds at 4000-5000ft this afternoon
will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies expected
overnight. The cycle will repeat on Thursday, with SCT diurnal
cloud cover once again developing by late morning/early afternoon.
Winds will be light from the NW this afternoon, then will shift to
the W/SW on Thursday.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Forecast and overall atmospheric pattern slow to change right now
as an upper low remains parked over the southern tip of Hudson
Bay...with the trof dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. 500
mb ridge over the west, and sfc high pressure building into the
Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast driven by slowly
warming temperatures, still below normal for late July, light
winds, and afternoon showers. Next chance for a slightly more
substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives on Friday, with a
wave diving into the upper trof and helping to enhance the
dynamics. Overall, very little in the forecast warranting more
than a chance/scattered mention, and not many changes expected
until the pattern breaks later in the weekend.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy afternoon skies with slight chance for some
afternoon showers and iso thunder... with the better chances to
the northeast. High temperatures upper 70s/low 80s...and overnight
lows dropping to upper 50s/near 60 with mostly clear skies. Upper
low anchored over southeastern Canada keeps the weather in a
pretty stagnant pattern and below normal temps in the Midwest.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms moving in for Friday...
as a wave rotates through the trof and enhances chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models pretty consistent with
this feature...though coverage is not expected to be widespread
just yet. High pressure dominating into the weekend as the sfc
ridge axis moves into the region. Winds remain light and variable
and dry forecast as the upper trof finally starts to progress
across into the NE. Chances for more significant weather starting
to return Tues/Wed as a more active and progressive flow sets up
across the country.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1101 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MID 80 HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PARKED OVER JAMES BAY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OVER CENTRAL WI AND IT
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT LOSES STEAM
THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN IL AND IN.
A LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY SO THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BETWEEN THE LAKE BREEZE AND
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT. CAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO BELOW
500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING A TON OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY SO THINKING
THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL NOT
BE SEVERE...BUT MAY BE DOWNDRAFT DRIVEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
LIKE YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY SO EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS. SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE OUTLYING AREAS...BUT IN THE LOW 60S DOWNTOWN.
JEE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH
AN ESTABLISHED LONG WAVE...MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EACH OF THESE LOOK TO BRING SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT FOR ELONGATED CAPE
PROFILES NEAR PEAK HEATING. ALL IN ALL THESE CONTINUE TO PRESENT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
THERE CONTINUES FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON BRINGING AN UPPER/MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE SOUTHWARD FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS
SUPPORT HIGHER POPS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE AREA AND WHILE THE
MAGNITUDES OF BOTH MAY BE EXTREME /70 PERCENT PLUS/...THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED COVERAGE MORE SO THAN TODAY AND THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO DO HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. VERY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ADVERTISED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO STEER A COOL
FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH LARGE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REACHES. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO A WELL-
VERIFYING BLEND OF GUIDANCE BESIDES INCHING UP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONTAL FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-NE ARND 10 KT.
* SCT SHRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A FEW TSRA ALSO PSBL.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND
IT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 9 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND IT WILL IMPACT ORD...MDW...AND GYY. NOT SURE IF THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT TO DPA SO KEPT A NW WIND AT DPA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NE ARND 10 KT BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS AS YESTERDAY...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL HAVE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT.
WINDS BACK TO WEST IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN WEST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING...SCHC SHRA LATE
IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY...CHC SHRA WITH A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SATURDAY...SCHC SHRA IN THE MORNING...CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE LAKE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS BECOME NORTH AROUND 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD EAST TODAY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AT
TIMES OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE UNIFORM THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE MORE WEAK COOL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED BY WEEKS END...AT THIS
TIME THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EACH OF THESE WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BUT
SPEEDS PRIMARILY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF
THE DAY OVER LAND. SOME OF THESE COULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO
NEARSHORE AREAS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AS SEEN OVER WI/IL
SHORES LAST EVENING...AND PROFILES OVER LAND DO SUPPORT SOME QUICK
RACING OUTFLOWS/GUST FRONTS FROM SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO
SOMETHING FOR NEARSHORE MARINERS TO KEEP SOME TABS ON DESPITE THE
MAINLY QUIET WIND/WAVE REGIME.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
High pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Ohio
River Valley is providing mostly sunny and cool conditions to
central Illinois this morning. Main question will be whether or
not any showers will develop within the cyclonic flow pattern
aloft. 14z/9am water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning
over Hudson Bay, with short-wave trough rotating around this
feature across southern Michigan. The influence of this wave will
likely remain NE of Illinois today, with scattered showers/thunder
developing across southern Michigan/Northern Indiana this
afternoon. Upper support will be weaker further W/SW, so am not
expecting much precip at all in Illinois. HRRR suggests isolated
showers may fire after 19z, mainly across northern Illinois.
Meanwhile, the NAM12 is completely dry. Have therefore scaled back
PoPs today, with only an isolated shower mention along/north of
I-74 this afternoon. Have also removed evening showers and gone
with a mostly clear forecast for tonight. Zone update has already
been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
VFR conditions expected at all central Illinois TAF sites for the
next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover at 4-5 kft MSL will develop
with daytime heating. Isolated light afternoon showers are
possible...mainly KMTO-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys unlikely. After 00Z...any shower activity/cloud cover
diminishing. Winds increasing to WNW7-10 kts by 15Z...becoming
light and variable by 00Z.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Forecast and overall atmospheric pattern slow to change right now
as an upper low remains parked over the southern tip of Hudson
Bay...with the trof dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. 500
mb ridge over the west, and sfc high pressure building into the
Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast driven by slowly
warming temperatures, still below normal for late July, light
winds, and afternoon showers. Next chance for a slightly more
substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives on Friday, with a
wave diving into the upper trof and helping to enhance the
dynamics. Overall, very little in the forecast warranting more
than a chance/scattered mention, and not many changes expected
until the pattern breaks later in the weekend.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy afternoon skies with slight chance for some
afternoon showers and iso thunder... with the better chances to
the northeast. High temperatures upper 70s/low 80s...and overnight
lows dropping to upper 50s/near 60 with mostly clear skies. Upper
low anchored over southeastern Canada keeps the weather in a
pretty stagnant pattern and below normal temps in the Midwest.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms moving in for Friday...
as a wave rotates through the trof and enhances chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models pretty consistent with
this feature...though coverage is not expected to be widespread
just yet. High pressure dominating into the weekend as the sfc
ridge axis moves into the region. Winds remain light and variable
and dry forecast as the upper trof finally starts to progress
across into the NE. Chances for more significant weather starting
to return Tues/Wed as a more active and progressive flow sets up
across the country.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.
THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 89 63 89 / 20 10 20 30
DULCE........................... 53 78 53 79 / 40 10 40 50
CUBA............................ 55 81 55 82 / 50 60 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 59 87 58 86 / 20 10 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 55 80 54 79 / 30 50 50 50
GRANTS.......................... 57 83 57 82 / 40 40 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 58 81 57 80 / 30 50 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 60 88 59 87 / 20 20 30 40
CHAMA........................... 48 74 47 75 / 60 60 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 75 56 75 / 60 30 50 60
PECOS........................... 54 72 53 72 / 70 50 50 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 73 51 73 / 70 20 50 70
RED RIVER....................... 43 64 44 63 / 70 50 50 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 68 43 68 / 70 40 50 70
TAOS............................ 52 74 52 75 / 40 10 50 60
MORA............................ 51 70 50 70 / 70 50 50 70
ESPANOLA........................ 60 80 58 80 / 50 10 50 40
SANTA FE........................ 58 75 57 75 / 50 20 50 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 78 59 79 / 40 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 82 63 81 / 30 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 84 66 83 / 30 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 86 61 85 / 40 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 86 62 85 / 40 10 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 86 64 84 / 40 10 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 86 65 85 / 40 10 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 66 89 66 86 / 30 10 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 80 58 77 / 40 30 50 60
TIJERAS......................... 58 79 59 79 / 40 20 50 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 82 56 81 / 60 30 50 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 73 57 73 / 60 30 50 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 77 59 76 / 60 30 50 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 82 62 80 / 20 10 40 50
RUIDOSO......................... 52 74 53 72 / 50 40 50 70
CAPULIN......................... 53 70 54 70 / 60 30 50 60
RATON........................... 55 73 56 73 / 60 30 50 50
SPRINGER........................ 56 74 58 75 / 60 30 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 72 54 71 / 60 40 50 60
CLAYTON......................... 56 77 59 78 / 40 5 20 20
ROY............................. 56 74 59 73 / 60 20 40 50
CONCHAS......................... 61 80 63 80 / 40 10 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 79 62 77 / 50 20 40 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 81 62 82 / 30 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 57 78 60 79 / 40 5 20 20
PORTALES........................ 59 80 61 81 / 40 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 80 64 78 / 40 10 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 65 84 67 83 / 40 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 61 78 63 75 / 50 20 40 50
ELK............................. 58 74 58 70 / 60 40 50 70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REQUIRED INCREASING SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE FROM REGINA TO WINNIPEG SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NEWLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THEREFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE
IS TOO SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN...HOWEVER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
547 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HINTON TO
KINGFISHER TO GUTHRIE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT ALTER AT
THIS TIME.
APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE DECREASING
DUE TO PERHAPS CAPPING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.
MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL LINE.
WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS NECESSARY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND WE AGREED THAT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE MURRAY... JOHNSTON... COAL AND ATOKA COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST SIGNAL OF THE QPF AXIS IS LOCATED. ON THE
OTHER SIDE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LOW AFTER TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 78 64 84 / 90 30 0 0
HOBART OK 64 79 63 85 / 40 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 79 66 86 / 40 20 10 0
GAGE OK 60 79 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 80 61 84 / 70 20 0 0
DURANT OK 67 76 63 82 / 80 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ018>020-
024>032-040>043-047-048.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ012-013.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME WINDOW WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ONE WILL BE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AREAS
AROUND...EAST AND SOUTH OF DANVILLE VA THROUGH ROUGHLY 800 PM. THE
OTHER AREA WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WES VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF LEWISBURG WV MAY SEE A
STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 500 PM...CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH 700 PM. A DISTURBANCE WITH AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE
RATE AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO...AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK
WRF-ARW OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE ACTIVITY TO OUR DOORSTEP AND
THEN HAVE IT DISSIPATE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 IN WV AND VA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG IN THIS
AREA...CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TO FORM. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
HELPED ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S BACK TOWARD THE
AREA AS CLOSE AS ROXBORO NC AND SOUTH HILL VA. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS PROGGED TO START SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS AND THEN INTO
THE AREA. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
BANKED AGAINST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER AS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING. READINGS AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60.
OF OUR SIX CLIMATE SITES...LEWISBURG HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING
CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON THURSDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND GROWING
IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO NEAR FLOYD VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF THE UPPER JET.
MAY KEEP PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW SINCE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WPC 24 HOUR
QPF FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD
CONSENSUS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE. EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PUTTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
WIDE RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNTIL THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHALLENGING TO
NARROW DOWN WHICH DAY OF TIME FRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
POCKET OF WARMER 850 MB AIR WITH +20 TEMPERATURES COMES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BASED
ON THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE
WAITING ON DELIVERY OF PARTS TO MAKE REPAIRS. THE EARLIEST THE
RADIO WILL BE WORKING AGAIN IS FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COOL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AND
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VIA LAPS DATA...WEAK INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...WITHIN THE REGION WHERE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WAS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY WAS
JUST WEST OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. BOTH THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND RNK WRF-
ARW MODELS SHOW THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GAINING
INCREASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION. THERE
ALSO...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ROBUST ALONG THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS OF THE
REGION...SOME WEAK INDICATION THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARDS TWO OR THREE DEGREES THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST HAD
BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM COMPARED TO REALITY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
DEW POINTS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL
INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WAS IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICK DISSIPATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SO THAT LITTLE IF ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BY
1100 AM. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
MORE ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE 5H TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING SHRA OVER THE
FAR SE SHOULD FINALLY EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND AREAS
OF MID/LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST UNDER A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO FADE TO AN
INCREASING CU FIELD WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
RAOBS SHOWING A LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 7H-85H. HOWEVER
APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO KEEP ANY SHRA TO MINIMUM
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A MID LEVEL WAVE UNDER THE COLD
POCKET TO THE NW APPROACHES. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA NORTH-NW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN MEAGER WITH ANY PRECIP AS BASICALLY ONLY
THE NAM SHOWS MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LAPSES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNDER HEATING APPEARS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
20-30 POP GREENBRIER/HIGHLANDS DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ISOLATED TSRA MENTION MAINLY NORTH. OTRW WILL CALL IT MAINLY PC
FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS ESPCLY EARLY...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S SE PENDING CLOUDS.
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SWINGING UNDER THE BASE OF THE 5H COLD POOL
WILL JET EAST CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WEAKNESS AND EARLY EVENING CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW TO DEVELOP SHRA SE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT
POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTRW
PASSING OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW MORE CLEARING MOUNTAINS
WHILE MID DECK MAY AGAIN LINGER PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS SEEN VIA
MOST MODEL RH SOLUTIONS ATTM. WILL AGAIN BE QUITE A COOL NIGHT
ESPCLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DONT RISE TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER BUT MAY HARD PRESSED TO REACH RECORDS AS EXPECT A
BIT MORE VALLEY FOG LATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO
KEEP READINGS ABOVE RECORDS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THAT PROCESS WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A DAY...AND EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES...EXPECT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO START THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 1.5
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO GO AWAY COMPLETELY.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE
AS THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS SITUATED IN A PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CARRYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT ALL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TROF AS
AMPLIFIED AS THE ECMWF SO STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT
WILL ADVANCE.
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT FORECAST AREA STAYS IN TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR
SUMMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE VFR YIELDING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY IN THE COLD POOL OF AIR TO PRODUCE A GOOD CU FIELD
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
BELIEVE THE CU WILL BE A VFR SCT V BKN TYPE SITUATION. WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP SCT EXCEPT FOR KBLF/KLWB WHERE BKN WILL BE
MORE LIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL ALSO KEEP
TAFS DRY SINCE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB BUT IF CU/SC CLOUD DECK LINGERS IT MAY DELAY ONSET
AND ULTIMATELY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS. WILL CHOOSE TO GO WITH
QUICKER CU/SC DISSIPATION THIS EVE/TONIGHT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING OVERALL VFR...THEN INCREASING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY STARTS TO DEVELOP. ALONG
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/MBS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS