Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/29/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.
SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.
THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1050Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.
SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
HAPPENED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD.
FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN SECTIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE GENERALLY NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF TUCSON AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.
THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
905 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
HOLD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
NEAR-RECORD READINGS WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY SO FAR WITH MOST STORMS STAYING ACROSS FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
GILA COUNTY MAY END UP LASTING LONG ENOUGH INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF RAIN. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY A BIT LIMITED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND MLCAPES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT. MODEST FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 30 KNOTS AND FAVORABLE GUSTY
WIND SOUNDING PROFILE WILL PRESENT A STRONG WIND THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH THESE WESTWARD PROGRESSING STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
STORM OUTFLOW AND INDUCED COLD POOL FROM THE GILA COUNTY STORMS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER CELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PHOENIX
AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW SOME
STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WHILE WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AN
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHER PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE
TODAY...BUT STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BRING A MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING THEM TO MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER STEADILY INCREASES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL. STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST THAT CAN CREATE DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.
DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE
WEST THROUGH 06Z...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM TO IMPACT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS BETWEEN 05-07Z. STORM OUTFLOWS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ALSO DURING THAT TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE HOW FAR WEST THESE STORMS
AND OUTFLOWS WILL PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH A MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR STORMS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE INTO TAFS...THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
STORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
355 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEGINNING MONDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BANDS OF CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING ONE BAND THAT IS STREAMING
OVER KERN COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ALSO VISIBLE...IN
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS...IS THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE EL PORTAL FIRE
IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.
LIGHTNING DATA SHOW BOTH IN-CLOUD/CLOUD-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY
OVER TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE LIGHTNING IS
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLOWER TIMING THAN THE 19Z
HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL HAD FORECAST...WHICH HAD
THUNDER MOVING INTO THE PARK BY 20Z /1300 PDT/. THE HRRR DID MOVE
THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY 06Z MONDAY
/2300 PDT TONIGHT/...BUT DID HAVE A STORM MOVING INTO THE FRAZIER
PARK/PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB AREA AT THAT TIME. BUILD-UPS OVER LOS
ANGELES COUNTY ARE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED AT THIS TIME.
AT 19Z /NOON PDT/...BAKERSFIELD WAS RUNNING 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT
19Z SATURDAY...BUT FRESNO WAS RUNNING 2 DEGREES COOLER. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
103-106 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY LIKELY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE 18Z NAM-12
FORECASTS NEAR SATURATION OF THE 700-500-MB LAYER OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERT AREAS BY 15Z
/0800 PDT/ MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TUESDAY. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
AFTER MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THE LATEST GFS...IN CONTRAST TO
BOTH THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS...PICKS UP ON THE COOLING FOR
MONDAY...THEN WARMS 850-MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF COOL-DOWN SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
UNTIL 04Z MONDAY WITH A RECURRENCE AFTER 19Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-27 114:1933 83:1941 79:1933 52:1897
KFAT 07-28 110:1980 89:1941 82:1980 55:1892
KFAT 07-29 113:1898 87:1896 78:2003 57:1950
KBFL 07-27 117:1933 85:1965 83:1980 52:1914
KBFL 07-28 118:1908 85:1941 84:1931 50:1914
KBFL 07-29 114:1908 87:1965 86:2003 52:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEGINNING MONDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BANDS OF CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING ONE BAND THAT IS STREAMING
OVER KERN COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ALSO VISIBLE...IN
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS...IS THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE EL PORTAL FIRE
IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.
LIGHTNING DATA SHOW BOTH IN-CLOUD/CLOUD-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY
OVER TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE LIGHTNING IS
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLOWER TIMING THAN THE 19Z
HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL HAD FORECAST...WHICH HAD
THUNDER MOVING INTO THE PARK BY 20Z /1300 PDT/. THE HRRR DID MOVE
THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY 06Z MONDAY
/2300 PDT TONIGHT/...BUT DID HAVE A STORM MOVING INTO THE FRAZIER
PARK/PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB AREA AT THAT TIME. BUILD-UPS OVER LOS
ANGELES COUNTY ARE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED AT THIS TIME.
AT 19Z /NOON PDT/...BAKERSFIELD WAS RUNNING 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT
19Z SATURDAY...BUT FRESNO WAS RUNNING 2 DEGREES COOLER. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
103-106 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY LIKELY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE 18Z NAM-12
FORECASTS NEAR SATURATION OF THE 700-500-MB LAYER OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERT AREAS BY 15Z
/0800 PDT/ MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TUESDAY. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
AFTER MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THE LATEST GFS...IN CONTRAST TO
BOTH THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS...PICKS UP ON THE COOLING FOR
MONDAY...THEN WARMS 850-MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF COOL-DOWN SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
UNTIL 04Z MONDAY WITH A RECURRENCE AFTER 19Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JULY 27 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-27 114:1933 83:1941 79:1933 52:1897
KFAT 07-28 110:1980 89:1941 82:1980 55:1892
KFAT 07-29 113:1898 87:1896 78:2003 57:1950
KBFL 07-27 117:1933 85:1965 83:1980 52:1914
KBFL 07-28 118:1908 85:1941 84:1931 50:1914
KBFL 07-29 114:1908 87:1965 86:2003 52:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LATEST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL AND DIFFERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AT INITIALIZATION
TIME. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND SKIRTING THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDE
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CAPE AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL
MOSITURE FIELD CURRENTLY PROPAGATING NORTHWEST OVER LOS
ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWEST
AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN BAJA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER AREA THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST
SKIES OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE LATEST RUC INDICATED
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA FROM APPLE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND
THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN APPLE VALLEY MAY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING
FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.
THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION...27/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MARINE LAYER LOCATION... INTENSITY... AND DURATION. PRIMARY CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA. THESE WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION PERIODICALLY TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOVING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TONIGHT BUT WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER IT SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AND UNIFORM AS IT WAS
THIS MORNING.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT BUT THEY ARE WIDELY SPACED
ENOUGH TO BE UNCERTAIN AS TO IF THEY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOCATION. PRIMARY TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THROUGH 23Z BUT THEY ARE POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM TONIGHT BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY AND
UNIFORMITY.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT BUT THEY ARE WIDELY SPACED
ENOUGH TO BE UNCERTAIN AS TO IF THEY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOCATION. PRIMARY TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THROUGH 23Z BUT THEY ARE POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...27/900 AM
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY... WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY TODAY...WITH A LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LATEST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL AND DIFFERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AT INITIALIZATION
TIME. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND SKIRTING THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDE
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CAPE AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL
MOSITURE FIELD CURRENTLY PROPAGATING NORTHWEST OVER LOS
ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWEST
AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN BAJA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER AREA THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST
SKIES OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE LATEST RUC INDICATED
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA FROM APPLE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND
THE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN APPLE VALLEY MAY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...FAIRLY JUICY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEERING
FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY SO...SO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE BORDER OF LOW AND MODERATE.
THE GFS INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER VORT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH TUE. IT NOW LOOKS AS THROUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF SBA...VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
IT IS TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN SOME...SO THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES IF CLOUD
COVER TODAY KEEPS TEMPS DOWN.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TUE.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA...AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION...
27/1145Z
MARINE LAYER IS 800 FEET DEEP AND STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE COAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS AS BURN OFF WILL BE VERY HAPHAZARD
DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EVENING. MARINE LAYER WILL FORM IN A RANDOM MANOR TONIGHT.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH BURN OFF POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM 16Z
TO 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO
04Z.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FROM 15Z TO 04Z.
&&
.MARINE...
27/900 AM
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY... WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KJ
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
937 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA. MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.
MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.
THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS. SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
223 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE. DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.
00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING. THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS. OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH. THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.
THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB
BUT ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OF VORT MAXES WHILE ON ONE LEVEL
CORRECT CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THE MODEL. NEAR AND
SHORT TERM SOLUTION ARE AN ECMWF/HI RES ARW BLEND AS THE FORMER HAS
VERIFIED THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES BETTER AND THE LATTER WAS
USED FOR CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENTS AS ITS VERIFYING WELL AT 18Z.
COSPA VERIFYING TOO SLOW WITH CONVECTION LEAVING OHIO AND TOO NORTH
WITH WV CONVECTION. IT...RAP AND HRRR ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES AND ADVECT IT EAST AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
OH/PA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORT WAVE. SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING 2000J ML CAPE IN THAT AREA AND THE STABILITY OF WAVE CLOUDS
ON VIS SATL OVER THAT AREA IS NOW GONE. SO WE WILL CONT TO START
GRIDS WITH LOW POPS THAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
POPS ARE TIED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND ALSO THE DEEPER LAYER MASS OMEGA
FIELDS BY THE MODELS. IN SPITE OF QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE OMEGA
FIELDS TIMING ARE CLUSTERED CLOSER. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SCENARIO
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND EVEN A JET COUPLET OVER OUR CWA FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE MLCAPE WILL DECREASE, EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE NO END TO THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND
40KTS. SO THE STRONGER (SEVERE?) POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDER MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF COSPAS DONT CORROBORATE
THIS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED SOME ENHANCED WORDING PAST MIDNIGHT. GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT FLAVOR OF THE TROF, WHILE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. WITH FFG VALUES RUNNING AT TYPICALLY HIGH
SUMMER LEVELS, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OUR MORE FOCUSED CONCERN.
WE WERE SLOW WITH DROPPING TEMPS THIS EVENING AND TRIED TO TIME THE
DROP TO THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN. MIN TEMPS NOT THAT FAR FROM STAT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.
STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.
THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP). MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.
OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.
MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5
DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0
ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 20 30 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 10 60 20 0
GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0
MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 40 0
ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 20 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 30 10 0
VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
39
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 75 1977 77 1936 59 1911
1926
KATL 101 1952 69 1977 77 1981 62 1911
KCSG 100 1993 81 1977 77 2010 67 1954
1952
KMCN 101 1993 76 1977 77 1958 62 1911
1952 1936
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND TH BOUDNARY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 74 92 66 / 10 20 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 90 67 / 10 20 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 88 68 82 58 / 20 40 30 5
CARTERSVILLE 93 73 89 64 / 10 30 30 5
COLUMBUS 96 77 94 69 / 5 10 60 20
GAINESVILLE 92 74 88 66 / 10 30 30 10
MACON 96 75 95 67 / 5 10 60 40
ROME 93 73 89 65 / 10 30 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 93 72 91 65 / 10 20 30 10
VIDALIA 97 78 96 72 / 5 10 60 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
39
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 75 1977 77 1936 59 1911
1926
KATL 101 1952 69 1977 77 1981 62 1911
KCSG 100 1993 81 1977 77 2010 67 1954
1952
KMCN 101 1993 76 1977 77 1958 62 1911
1952 1936
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MID LEVEL CU
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTING A PROB30 -SHRA
15Z-18Z MONDAY... WITH LITTLE TSRA THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY MID-LATE THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS SHIFT NW AROUND 10-12KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FROPA ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 74 92 66 / 10 20 30 5
ATLANTA 93 76 90 67 / 10 20 30 5
BLAIRSVILLE 88 68 82 58 / 20 30 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 93 73 89 64 / 10 30 20 5
COLUMBUS 96 77 94 69 / 10 10 40 10
GAINESVILLE 92 74 88 66 / 10 20 30 10
MACON 96 75 95 67 / 10 10 30 10
ROME 93 73 89 65 / 10 30 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 93 72 91 65 / 10 10 30 5
VIDALIA 97 78 96 72 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS AND SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR DO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THAT REGION...ALONG WITH THE WEAK/STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE PROGGING AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF
THE CWFA...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CLIP
THE NORTHERN ZONES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANY MCS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. MOST OF THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...DO THINK
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. LEANED HARD ON WPC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO N GA
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NW GA BY 06Z-12Z MON AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE FL BORDER BY 12Z
TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH
CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3
TO -7. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO
INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY
2 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN
BORDER BY 12Z MON. SPC AS GA ON DAY 3 IN JUST A SEE TEXT AREA.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUE/WED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
01
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... DESPITE A FEW
BRIEF PATCHES OF 4-6SM BR AROUND THIS MORNING. SCT MID LEVEL CU WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL GREATLY HINDER ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH GA LATE
TONIGHT... SO COULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
OVER THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z MON. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 95 76 91 / 5 10 20 20
ATLANTA 74 93 76 87 / 5 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 67 88 68 80 / 0 20 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 71 93 74 87 / 5 10 30 20
COLUMBUS 76 95 76 92 / 10 10 10 50
GAINESVILLE 73 93 74 87 / 5 10 30 20
MACON 74 95 77 93 / 10 10 10 50
ROME 71 94 74 87 / 0 20 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 72 93 75 89 / 5 10 20 30
VIDALIA 77 95 78 94 / 10 20 10 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
210 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1142 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO FOCUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
FAR EASTERN CWA ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THEN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH...LESS SOUTH. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS WELL...WITH WARMER HIGHS EAST/SOUTHEAST
SETTLING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING A CHICAGO-PONTIAC ILLINOIS LINE AT 16Z...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE. WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S AND SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
1000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE ALTHOUGH TREND TOWARD LATER INITIATION AND LESS
COVERAGE NOTED IN HIGH-RES MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
POPS TO FAVOR FAR EASTERN AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
NOTE THAT SPC HAS REMOVED EASTERN CWA FROM SLGT RISK WITH THE
UPDATED DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IF DEEP UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL...
THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAINLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
OTHERWISE...STRONG/COMPACT UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING THIS TREND ACROSS WI. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH COOL/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION...SUGGESTING
LOWER COVERAGE OF THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMP WISE...SOME MID-80S NOTED ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AHEAD OF
FRONT. HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
OR SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF A DIFFICULT AND MESSY PATTERN THAT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE DRY OUT MONDAY AND
THEN HAVE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE A LARGER LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER EASTERN IOWA
WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WI. SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
SPROUTED OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
THOSE SPRINKLES. ADDITIONAL MORE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF
A PERU TO RENSSELAER LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER IS EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND VSBY
INCREASES AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. AS SUCH WILL HOLD OFF ON A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT SOME THUNDER SHOULD BE REALIZED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS UPSTREAM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NW WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA WILL ALSO
TRANSVERSE THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL
SWING OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE. TODAY WILL NOT BE
A WASH OUT HOWEVER AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AT TIMES TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FETCH...WAVES WILL BUILD CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL
LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY WITH US MOST OF THE DAY LIMITING HOW WARM WE
GET AGAIN. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S
SOUTH WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THEN MERGES WITH
THE STRONGER LOW OVER QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. WE STAY STUCK IN AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WEAK
VORTICITY STREAMERS PASSING BY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT
NEAR 70. THEN A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT FOR SLEEPING IS IN STORE WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 60 DOWNTOWN.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE REMAIN IN THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS. KEPT PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS VORTICITY STREAMERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE IS NOT PLENTIFUL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
70S WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE REACHING 80.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* CHANCE OF SHRA MID AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST MID/LATE EVENING.
* CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF ORD/MDW WITH A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAKE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
ORD/MDW BUT MAY STILL IMPACT GYY THROUGH 19Z OR SO UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THERE. AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS...
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER...FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND BUMPED SPEEDS/GUSTS UP
JUST A BIT WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. CHANGES TO TIMING MAY
BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE UPDATES BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST IS INCREASING. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THIS FRONT. WINDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT
BACK NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH/NORTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IN UNDERWAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE HAS PASSED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
FILTERING ACROSS THE LAKE AND QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 30KT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WHILE WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO PREVAILING 30KT.
OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TIMING
DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY. ON TUESDAY...A SFC TROUGH
OR OR WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE TO NWLY
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014...10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006...10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point dicontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.
Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point dicontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.
Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point dicontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.
Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point dicontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.
Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1258 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Forecast generally looks on track today and main adjustment is
low cloud cover lingering longer than earlier expected se of I-55.
Skies should still become partly to mostly sunny across central
and evenually eastern IL during the afternoon. Will continue
small chances of showers and thunderstorms over eastern IL mainly
east of I-57 this afternoon. SPC has slight risk of severe storms
from the IL/IN border east across IN/KY/OH with moderate risk over
in the foothills of the Appalachians in eastern KY and southern OH.
Cold front was pushing se into far southeast IL near the Wabash
River late this morning with WNW winds increasing behind the front
over central IL and gusting 15-25 mph over IL river valley. Still
muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s se of IL river and upper 60s
nw of IL river. Dewpoints drop off into the upper 50s and lower
60s upstream near the IA/IL border and should advect se into
central IL during the afternoon. Southeast IL will still be muggy
today where dewpoints currently in mid 70s but should slip into
the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid
80s look on track today with return of more sunshine with some
upper 80s near Lawrenceville.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Surface map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection.
Broad surface trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light
and variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile visibility this morning. Some convection
blowing up over the area turning over some of the air and helping
to block much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially
limiting the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models
not handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12
hours. Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented.
Front still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later mid day and this afternoon.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
significantly cooler temps with some relatively drier air
filtering in. Precipitation chances drop out of the forecast for
tonight and tomorrow. But it bears mentioning that todays pops
will be complicated by small perturbations that are not being
resolved well in the models. HRRR is closest with some
approximation of the line of showers and thunderstorms across
central ILX...and some reflection of the wave interacting with the
stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also trying to key in on
it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the HRRR, and the NAM
sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and interacting with
the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More eastward
progression with that disturbance may well change the outcome of
the mid day and afternoon thunderstorm chances.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1102 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF A DIFFICULT AND MESSY PATTERN THAT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE DRY OUT MONDAY AND
THEN HAVE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE A LARGER LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER EASTERN IOWA
WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WI. SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
SPROUTED OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
THOSE SPRINKLES. ADDITIONAL MORE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF
A PERU TO RENSSELAER LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER IS EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND VSBY
INCREASES AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. AS SUCH WILL HOLD OFF ON A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT SOME THUNDER SHOULD BE REALIZED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS UPSTREAM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NW WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA WILL ALSO
TRANSVERSE THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL
SWING OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE. TODAY WILL NOT BE
A WASH OUT HOWEVER AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AT TIMES TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FETCH...WAVES WILL BUILD CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL
LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY WITH US MOST OF THE DAY LIMITING HOW WARM WE
GET AGAIN. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S
SOUTH WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THEN MERGES WITH
THE STRONGER LOW OVER QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. WE STAY STUCK IN AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WEAK
VORTICITY STREAMERS PASSING BY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT
NEAR 70. THEN A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT FOR SLEEPING IS IN STORE WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 60 DOWNTOWN.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE REMAIN IN THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS. KEPT PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS VORTICITY STREAMERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE IS NOT PLENTIFUL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
70S WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE REACHING 80.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA 16Z-18Z.
* CHANCE OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY MORNING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND
ANY TSRA THAT MAY FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED IN TERMS OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS. HAVE TRIMMED TEMPO
DURATION AND ALSO VCTS DURATION...NOW ENDING AT ORD/MDW BY 18Z.
THOUGH ITS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A FAIRLY BROKEN/SOLID LINE OF TSRA
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID 20KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CMS
PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION...
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FOG/LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH 13Z-14Z AND MAYBE EVEN TO 15Z ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET WORSE AT TAF SITES AFTER 12Z GIVEN
DAYBREAK AND AN INCREASING WIND FLOW.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI AS OF
12Z WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CHICAGO BY MID-AFTERNOON. JUST
AHEAD OF THIS WILL EXIST A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPPER
SUPPORT...WHICH OVERRIDING A COLD FRONT WITH INSTABILITY ALONG IT
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS WILL EXTEND IS UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
ENOUGH THAT IT WARRANTS INCLUSION INTO THE TAF. AS THE HEART OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED
STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE
PROBABLE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME GUSTS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD DUE
TO ITS COOL AIR ADVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY PROVIDE
SOME FOCUS FOR MVFR OR NEAR-MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW FOR TSRA 16Z-18Z.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM TONIGHT/MONDAY.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE AND ATYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID TO LATE MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND SLOWLY DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...COOL
AIR ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WITHIN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS LOOK TO
COME UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AND IT IS THEN WHEN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH DURING MONDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY DROP MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH THAT WILL BE REALIZED WAVES WILL BE ON THE UPPER
END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR SUMMERTIME WITH 7 TO 10 AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO THE
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AREAS. STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID-SUMMER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDWEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014...10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006...10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS `
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Forecast generally looks on track today and main adjustment is
low cloud cover lingering longer than earlier expected se of I-55.
Skies should still become partly to mostly sunny across central
and evenually eastern IL during the afternoon. Will continue
small chances of showers and thunderstorms over eastern IL mainly
east of I-57 this afternoon. SPC has slight risk of severe storms
from the IL/IN border east across IN/KY/OH with moderate risk over
in the foothills of the Appalachians in eastern KY and southern OH.
Cold front was pushing se into far southeast IL near the Wabash
River late this morning with WNW winds increasing behind the front
over central IL and gusting 15-25 mph over IL river valley. Still
muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s se of IL river and upper 60s
nw of IL river. Dewpoints drop off into the upper 50s and lower
60s upstream near the IA/IL border and should advect se into
central IL during the afternoon. Southeast IL will still be muggy
today where dewpoints currently in mid 70s but should slip into
the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid
80s look on track today with return of more sunshine with some
upper 80s near Lawrenceville.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Cold frontal boundary pushing into central IL roughly aligned from
KSPI-KAAA-KBMI as of 1130Z. Along the boundary a combination of a
shower band and locally dense fog is noted in surface obs and
radar imagery. Another hour or two of IFR-VLIFR vsby/cigs in fog
possible before daytime heating raises ceilings. Isold tsra will
remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary through this
afternoon causing isold mvfr vsby/cigs, but probabilities are too
low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover becoming sct-bkn030-050
after 14Z. After 00Z- 02Z...clearing skies expected. Light winds
becoming NW and increasing to 12-18G20-25 kts through 18Z. Winds
becoming less gusty after 00Z and gradually decreasing overnight.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later mid day and this afternoon.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF A DIFFICULT AND MESSY PATTERN THAT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE DRY OUT MONDAY AND
THEN HAVE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE A LARGER LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER EASTERN IOWA
WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WI. SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
SPROUTED OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
THOSE SPRINKLES. ADDITIONAL MORE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF
A PERU TO RENSSELAER LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER IS EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND VSBY
INCREASES AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. AS SUCH WILL HOLD OFF ON A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT SOME THUNDER SHOULD BE REALIZED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS UPSTREAM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NW WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA WILL ALSO
TRANSVERSE THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL
SWING OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE. TODAY WILL NOT BE
A WASH OUT HOWEVER AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AT TIMES TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FETCH...WAVES WILL BUILD CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL
LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY WITH US MOST OF THE DAY LIMITING HOW WARM WE
GET AGAIN. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S
SOUTH WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THEN MERGES WITH
THE STRONGER LOW OVER QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. WE STAY STUCK IN AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WEAK
VORTICITY STREAMERS PASSING BY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT
NEAR 70. THEN A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT FOR SLEEPING IS IN STORE WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 60 DOWNTOWN.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE REMAIN IN THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS. KEPT PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS VORTICITY STREAMERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE IS NOT PLENTIFUL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
70S WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE REACHING 80.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA 16Z-19Z.
* CHANCE OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY MORNING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FOG/LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH 13Z-14Z AND MAYBE EVEN TO 15Z ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET WORSE AT TAF SITES AFTER 12Z GIVEN
DAYBREAK AND AN INCREASING WIND FLOW.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI AS OF
12Z WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CHICAGO BY MID-AFTERNOON. JUST
AHEAD OF THIS WILL EXIST A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPPER
SUPPORT...WHICH OVERRIDING A COLD FRONT WITH INSTABILITY ALONG IT
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS WILL EXTEND IS UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
ENOUGH THAT IT WARRANTS INCLUSION INTO THE TAF. AS THE HEART OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED
STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE
PROBABLE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME GUSTS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD DUE
TO ITS COOL AIR ADVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY PROVIDE
SOME FOCUS FOR MVFR OR NEAR-MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA 16Z-19Z.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM TONIGHT/MONDAY.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE AND ATYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID TO LATE MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND SLOWLY DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...COOL
AIR ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WITHIN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS LOOK TO
COME UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AND IT IS THEN WHEN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH DURING MONDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY DROP MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH THAT WILL BE REALIZED WAVES WILL BE ON THE UPPER
END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR SUMMERTIME WITH 7 TO 10 AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO THE
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AREAS. STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID-SUMMER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDWEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014...10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006...10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later mid day and this afternoon.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Cold frontal boundary pushing into central IL roughly aligned from
KSPI-KAAA-KBMI as of 1130Z. Along the boundary a combination of a
shower band and locally dense fog is noted in surface obs and
radar imagery. Another hour or two of IFR-VLIFR vsby/cigs in fog
possible before daytime heating raises ceilings. Isold tsra will
remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary through this
afternoon causing isold mvfr vsby/cigs, but probabilities are too
low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover becoming sct-bkn030-050
after 14Z. After 00Z- 02Z...clearing skies expected. Light winds
becoming NW and increasing to 12-18G20-25 kts through 18Z. Winds
becoming less gusty after 00Z and gradually decreasing overnight.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
322 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF A DIFFICULT AND MESSY PATTERN THAT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE DRY OUT MONDAY AND
THEN HAVE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE A LARGER LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER EASTERN IOWA
WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WI. SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
SPROUTED OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
THOSE SPRINKLES. ADDITIONAL MORE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF
A PERU TO RENSSELAER LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER IS EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND VSBY
INCREASES AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. AS SUCH WILL HOLD OFF ON A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT SOME THUNDER SHOULD BE REALIZED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS UPSTREAM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NW WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA WILL ALSO
TRANSVERSE THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL
SWING OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE. TODAY WILL NOT BE
A WASH OUT HOWEVER AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AT TIMES TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FETCH...WAVES WILL BUILD CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL
LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY WITH US MOST OF THE DAY LIMITING HOW WARM WE
GET AGAIN. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S
SOUTH WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THEN MERGES WITH
THE STRONGER LOW OVER QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. WE STAY STUCK IN AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WEAK
VORTICITY STREAMERS PASSING BY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT
NEAR 70. THEN A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT FOR SLEEPING IS IN STORE WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 60 DOWNTOWN.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE REMAIN IN THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS. KEPT PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS VORTICITY STREAMERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE IS NOT PLENTIFUL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
70S WITH A FEW SITES MAYBE REACHING 80.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR FOG PROBABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR
FOG.
* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* SCATTERED SHRA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE TSRA.
* CHANCE FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENABLED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT A SLOW EXPANSION IN THAT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THERE ALREADY HAVE BEEN A FEW SITES IN THE REGION TO
REPORT IFR VISIBILITY SO CANNOT RULE THAT OUT AT TAF
SITES...NAMELY THE MORE FAVORED ONES SUCH AS DPA AND GYY. SOME
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAS UNDULATED IN COVERAGE BUT BELIEVE
MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH FOG BEING THE
PRIMARY RESTRICTION. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 1-2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE AID OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME...LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS IN THE
TAFS...NAMELY THE CHICAGOLAND ONES AS RFD LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
WEST OF THE BETTER FORCING. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL TURN WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN MVFR FOG OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. LOW IN JUST
HOW FAR VISIBILITY WILL FALL.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND MEDIUM IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY.
* MEDIUM IN SHRA AND TIMING. LOW IN ANY TSRA OCCURRING OVER THE
TAF SITES BUT PROBABLE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN MVFR CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE AND ATYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID TO LATE MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND SLOWLY DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...COOL
AIR ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WITHIN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS LOOK TO
COME UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AND IT IS THEN WHEN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH DURING MONDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY DROP MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH THAT WILL BE REALIZED WAVES WILL BE ON THE UPPER
END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR SUMMERTIME WITH 7 TO 10 AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO THE
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AREAS. STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID-SUMMER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDWEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014...10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006...10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...NOON SUNDAY TO 10 PM
MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743...NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later mid day and this afternoon.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Fog has developed in areas where there was rain this afternoon.
Some places have gotten as low as 1/4sm. MVFR cigs are developing
in the north and expect this to overspread PIA and BMI during the
overnight hours. The dense fog seems to have developed around SPI
and DEC, and unsure if it will get to CMI since CMI site did not
have a lot of rain. So have tried to forecast for LIFR or IFR
conditions at SPI and DEC overnight, with MVFR at PIA/BMI/CMI.
Then all sites will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with scattered
CU developing for the daytime hours. Skies should clear for
tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
then become northwesterly after the cold front moves through.
There is a slight chance that some showers will develop along the
front late tonight as it encounters the juicy air. But chances are
low and confidence is low, so will not have any mention in TAFs at
this time.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1242 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
736 PM CDT
OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED IN THE NEAR TERM
AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH CHANCES APPEARING LOW
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING REMAINING SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA AND MUCH OF
THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DRY AT THIS TIME. LACK OF
ANY REAL GOOD FOCUS THIS EVENING AND A STRONG CAP STILL IN PLACE
OVER LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT FURTHER
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. DID ADJUST POPS TO KEEP LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THIS
LINGERING BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...BUT WITH ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT MORE THAN LIKELY REMAINING MORE SHOWERY. ALSO GOING TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LARGE
VORT MAX ENTERING THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VORT LOBE OUT
AHEAD OF IT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND COULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REACH FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN A RELAXED SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AS WINDS FURTHER
DIMINISH...AND SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
246 PM...FORECAST CONCERN AND CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND DVN THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG CAPPING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS WHICH
ARE LIKELY ELEVATED SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION ROOTED FROM 800MB...
ABOVE THE CAP. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN IL WITH
THIS CAP IN PLACE BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BUT NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION YET. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
EAST INTO THE MORE CAPPED AIR...IT MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE LINE/COMPLEX. THUS CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA/CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL
INDIANA ARE DECREASING AT THE MOMENT. BUT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS POOLING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO COVERAGE/TIMING. AND WHILE
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SHOULD STORMS BECOME SEVERE
EARLIER THOUGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER.
THE GRADIENT MAY BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE PRECIP
COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WHERE ANY RAIN DOES FALL...COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY
MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. COULD BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON POST FRONTAL. AS COOLER AIR
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID/LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL. AS THIS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL BECOME QUITE
EFFICIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-30 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUS WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR FOG PROBABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR
FOG.
* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* SCATTERED SHRA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE TSRA.
* CHANCE FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENABLED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT A SLOW EXPANSION IN THAT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THERE ALREADY HAVE BEEN A FEW SITES IN THE REGION TO
REPORT IFR VISIBILITY SO CANNOT RULE THAT OUT AT TAF
SITES...NAMELY THE MORE FAVORED ONES SUCH AS DPA AND GYY. SOME
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAS UNDULATED IN COVERAGE BUT BELIEVE
MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH FOG BEING THE
PRIMARY RESTRICTION. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 1-2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE AID OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME...LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS IN THE
TAFS...NAMELY THE CHICAGOLAND ONES AS RFD LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
WEST OF THE BETTER FORCING. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL TURN WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN MVFR FOG OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. LOW IN JUST
HOW FAR VISIBILITY WILL FALL.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND MEDIUM IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY.
* MEDIUM IN SHRA AND TIMING. LOW IN ANY TSRA OCCURRING OVER THE
TAF SITES BUT PROBABLE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN MVFR CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY.
WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE TO ARND 30 KT FOLLOWING THE LOW
PASSAGE AND FROPA AND DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION...THE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
INDIANA WATERS AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH WAVES IN THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER WAVES. A NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE ILLINOIS WATERS WILL KEEP WAVES A BIT
LOWER...BUT SHOULD EXCEED 4-5 FT BY THE END OF THE 5NM NEARSHORE
FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS
AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE OVER THE LAKE. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DOWN THE LAKE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP MODEST WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BRING BACK LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW WAVES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...NOON SUNDAY TO 5 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON SUNDAY TO 11
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...NOON SUNDAY TO 5
AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Already made one update to remove the watch, but will need to make
another to try to better represent expected conditions overnight.
Cold front is still northwest of the area and will be moving
through the area overnight. Some models indicate that some
additional showers and storms could develop overnight as the cold
front interacts with the moist air over the area. With lots of the
airmass worked over from the evening storms, chances may not be
that high for additional pcpn, but it remains a possibility. Fog
will also develop as skies become clear and winds become light.
Some spots already seeing fog, so will making sure this is added
in grids as well. Update will be forthcoming in a while.
Auten
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Fog has developed in areas where there was rain this afternoon.
Some places have gotten as low as 1/4sm. MVFR cigs are developing
in the north and expect this to overspread PIA and BMI during the
overnight hours. The dense fog seems to have developed around SPI
and DEC, and unsure if it will get to CMI since CMI site did not
have a lot of rain. So have tried to forecast for LIFR or IFR
conditions at SPI and DEC overnight, with MVFR at PIA/BMI/CMI.
Then all sites will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with scattered
CU developing for the daytime hours. Skies should clear for
tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
then become northwesterly after the cold front moves through.
There is a slight chance that some showers will develop along the
front late tonight as it encounters the juicy air. But chances are
low and confidence is low, so will not have any mention in TAFs at
this time.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.
Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
DROP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.
CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.
SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY. MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
MARINE...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.
For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night. Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.
Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Scattered rain
showers could move towards the taf sites during the early morning
hours especially at MHK. The rain should remain light with no
significant impacts. Thunder appears to be very limited at this
time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR ceilings at 5000 to 10000ft AGL will gradually develop after
midnight as moisture and isentropic lift develops over western
Kansas in the 800mb to 600mb level. This cloud cover will linger
across western Kansas through the day on Tuesday. Light south to
southeast winds will increase after daybreak on Tuesday to around
15 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 78 63 70 / 20 50 90 90
GCK 64 77 63 69 / 20 40 90 90
EHA 65 79 62 73 / 30 60 90 70
LBL 65 78 63 71 / 30 70 90 90
HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70
P28 66 83 65 70 / 20 40 90 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
859 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS A MESO VORT MAX HAS EVOLVED FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE HRRR AND RUC
SUPPORT CONVECTION FESTERING LONGER INTO MIDDAY AND PERHAPS EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THIS FEATURES
MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT LONGER DURATION...THOUGH ADDITIONAL TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE LESS HEAT AND
GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT LITTLE SUPPORT
THERE IS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S MON-TUE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS PROGGED WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE TUE WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A SUBTLE WAVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED-WED NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. DUE TO
LIMITED INSOLATION/PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
ELEVATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF KAAO
NEAR KEWK AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SRN
KS. EXPECT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE KICT METRO AREA. SO
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AND A TEMPO TSRA FOR THE KICT TAF FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT TAF AS
WELL...AS THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY LINGERS NEAR THIS AREA AS WELL.
COULD SEE SOME VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR THE KICT TAF AS
THIS CONVECTION MOVES PAST.
EXPECT THE SRN KS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO OK
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL
ONLY KEEP THE TSRA GOING FOR THE MORNING. AFTER THIS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN...WILL GO WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF TIME
FRAME.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 92 65 87 65 / 30 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 91 64 86 64 / 30 0 0 10
NEWTON 92 64 85 64 / 30 0 0 10
ELDORADO 92 64 86 62 / 50 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 92 66 87 65 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELL 87 63 86 63 / 10 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 88 63 86 63 / 20 0 0 10
SALINA 90 62 87 62 / 10 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 91 64 86 64 / 10 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 96 64 88 62 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 94 63 86 61 / 20 0 0 0
IOLA 93 62 85 60 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 95 64 87 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
DUE TO ENVIRONMENT BEING MORE STABLE THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE
LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE
EVENING. HAVE NOTICED SOME STORMS ARE FINALLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS ELEVATED CAPE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS
WHERE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH SO IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE BEST. AM STILL THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIP. FORECAST GOES...AM HAVING MORE CONFIDENCE THE
BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY FIRING. OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE LATEST MODEL DATA BEFORE ALTERING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MWEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER WEST OF KGLD SO THAT
WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST
OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
DUE TO ENVIRONMENT BEING MORE STABLE THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE
LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE
EVENING. HAVE NOTICED SOME STORMS ARE FINALLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS ELEVATED CAPE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS
WHERE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH SO IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE BEST. AM STILL THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIP. FORECAST GOES...AM HAVING MORE CONFIDENCE THE
BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY FIRING. OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE LATEST MODEL DATA BEFORE ALTERING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD
INCLUDE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. NEAR TERM MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND ALL SUGGEST A MUCH COOLER
START TO THE WEEK THAN THE PAST WEEK.
CWA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THE RIDGE POSITION...PERIODS OF ASCENT
ACROSS WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP AS NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES AND PERSISTENT WEAK WAA REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY MID
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT DURING THE PERIOD AND WITH ELEVATED CAPE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THINK WE WILL SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO ADD SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO WX TIMING AS
THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCED
ASCENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
PATTERN AM NOT EXPECTING LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD...ABOUT 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED(TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SIMILAR PATTERN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS H5
RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST. GEFS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A HIGH PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING
HOW FAR NORTH/EAST PRECIP SHIELD WILL GO. STILL THINK BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWA SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HERE. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER WEST OF KGLD SO THAT
WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST
OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LIMIT SHOWERS TONIGHT TO THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW
SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED
AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE...
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY
SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST
KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS
WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH
NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON...
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO
FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE
KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON
ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL
SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY
AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12
GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO
ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUDS WILL BE INITIALLY DECREASING TONIGHT. ALL THE TOOLS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME VALLEY FOG AND/OR STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT. WENT WITH
THE TOOLS TONIGHT AND PUT IN SOME STRATUS AND MIST IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO LIFT AND THEN SOME BROKEN STRATO CU TOMORROW
THAT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND HOW FAST THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF. BOTH OF
THESE COULD HAVE PROFOUND EFFECTS ON THE TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.
Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.
The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.
The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.
As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.
Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.
Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
It appears at this time that any convection today is likely to be
south and east of the terminals. The thick cu deck should settle
in at VFR levels, and it should generally thin out through the
afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift will take winds to the west
northwest at KCGI and KEVV right at the beginning of the period,
and KPAH and KOWB through the afternoon. As winds become northwest
mixing may take gusts up above 20kts at times. The main issue for
tomorrow will be an expansive stratocu deck as the cooler air
aloft advects over the region. Cannot rule out some MVFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB in the late morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Latest thinking continues to remain on track. Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s. This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.
A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72). The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY. The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking. These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds. There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...
Currently:
The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.
Today:
Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.
Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.
Tonight through Monday:
Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.
Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations. Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area. We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu. Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Rather difficult TAF forecast unfolding this afternoon and evening,
as guidance is struggling to resolve convection across the
region. It appears the main focus for convection is just now
shifting south of KSDF, so will initiate with a dry forecast there.
Expect showers/storms to affect KLEX/KBWG this afternoon as the
atmosphere remains quite unstable. Some of these storms may be
severe, with locally damaging winds and large hail. Will leave just
VCTS wording given the expected scattered nature of the storms and
amend as necessary.
Otherwise, a cold front will sweep through all sites tonight,
allowing for much drier air to work into the region. All sites will
go VFR, with NNW winds around 10 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Latest thinking continues to remain on track. Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s. This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.
A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72). The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY. The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking. These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds. There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...
Currently:
The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.
Today:
Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.
Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.
Tonight through Monday:
Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.
Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations. Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area. We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu. Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.
Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Made minor updates to account for continuing convection across
central KY and southern IN. Heavy to torrential rainfall continues
to be the primary threat as a relative min in severe activity
briefly occurs. Gusty winds will continue in and around storms and
the gradient winds will increase as the diurnal heating machine
kicks in. The HRRR has been one of the best performing models
through the overnight period so if this pans out, this relative min
could continue through the next few hours before ramping back up
again. Shear is already beginning to increase and instability will
be on the rise.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...
Currently:
The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.
Today:
Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.
Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.
Tonight through Monday:
Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.
Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations. Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area. We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu. Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.
Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........lg
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE MCS IS WEAKENING TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN DISCUSSION
WITH SPC...DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE WATCH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS
THE STORMS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. THERE ARE TWO STORMS WE
ARE WATCHING. ONE IS THE STORM MOVING INTO CASEY COUNTY AND THE
OTHER ONE IS OVER OWEN COUNTY. EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS
STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE MCS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THE LAST FEW SCANS...ON THE RADAR...THE MCS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS TENDING TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH. THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM MAY JUST EFFECT THE AREA OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WEST OF I-75. THE HIGHER THETA E VALUES ARE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA...SO THIS BEHAVIOR AND MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MAKES SENSE.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE ST ROMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY GET TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE BIG SHOW IS STILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THE SEVERE PARAMETERS IS SOMETHING RARELY SEEN
IN EASTERN KENTUCKY IN JULY. WE WILL HAVE ENHANCED STAFFING AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE TOMORROW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
DYNAMIC SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUPPLANTING WHAT WILL BECOME A VERY
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
COMBINATION OF A SPRING-TIME SETUP ALOFT COMBINED WITH SUMMER-TIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL ORGANIZE TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING
OVER MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS SHOULD MARCH EASTWARD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIKELY ENDING UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST FROM JKL AND
POINTS TO THE NORTH.
THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE ANTICIPATED
SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ERUPT OVER US OR JUST TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PROVIDED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION GETS
OUT OF THE WAY IN TIME AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AS PROJECTED...
THESE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG. SOUNDINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE
IMPRESSIVE. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES EXCEED 300 M2/S2 COMBINED
WITH CAPE PROGGED TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG AND LCLS AROUND 3000 FT MSL.
IF THESE CONDITIONS VERIFY...A RARE JULY TORNADO OUTBREAK COULD
OCCUR. STILL...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW TONIGHTS ACTIVITY WILL
PAN OUT AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAY UP THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN OUR SUITE OF
PRODUCTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IS A CONCERN PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND PWATS
WILL JUMP TO 1.75 INCHES AND ABOVE. STORM MOTIONS LOOK FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT...BUT AGAIN THAT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW PRIMED WE GET BY TONIGHTS CONVECTION. NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED SHOULD THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURATE THE GROUND
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AN ANOMALOUS LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS UNDER THE TROUGH WILL
BE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALREADY AS THE PERIOD STARTS...BUT RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MIXING VERTICALLY INTO THE NEW AIR
MASS AS COOLING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE
COUNTIES WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY...DRIER SURFACE AIR AND A MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTIVE CURRENTS BELOW ABOUT 10K FEET. SOME LIQUID COULD STILL
TRY TO FALL OUT OF THE CLOUDS...BUT WITH LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH AND
DRIER AIR...WILL ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A CESSATION OF
COOLING ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...MODELS AGREE ON ITS AXIS RETROGRADING TO THE WEST AS A LOW
CLOSES OFF. WITH THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS SLIPPING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL
RETURN TO ITS EAST SIDE WHICH IS SYNOPTICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIP. FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STILL BE CUT OFF AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...SO WILL ONLY USE LOW POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
A LARGE BUT WEAKENING MCS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE LOST CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...AND CIGS SEEM TO
BE MAINTAINING VFR STATUS...THOUGH SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD
TEMPORARILY DROP VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR. MAIN FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO TOMORROW.
ONGOING FORECAST SEEMED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS VERY
WELL...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGES AFTER 15Z ON THIS ISSUANCE. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA IS STILL POINTING AT AN EVENT THAT IS RARELY SEEN IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN JULY. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR THE
AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING
THE VSBY TO AROUND A MILE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS.
THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS WELL.
KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES
THAT THE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ANYTIME AFTER DAWN THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DEVELOPING SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES FOR THE TAF SITES AS NEEDED
ONCE STORMS BEGIN INITIATING TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
All evidence points to the cap (see ILX and DVN 18Z RAOBS)
holding strong across the area late this afternoon and tonight.
The lone exception may be along the I-64 corridor, where a
complex of thunderstorms may push rapidly eastward generally in
the 01Z-05Z timeframe this evening.
The HRRR is still unable to generate a larger-scale bowing system,
as seen on some of the shorter range models this morning. The 12Z NAM
and GFS soundings show some weakness at times in the mid-level
flow across our north, so the overall organization of any storms
that develop may not be as significant as previously thought.
Individual storm cells may have enough 0-3KM SRH to support
rotating updrafts and would not be surprised to see some
supercells initially, where storms can develop this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be possible, and a few
tornadoes can not be ruled out with any individual cells this
evening. However, figure the cap will suppress any activity that
tries to dip south of I-64, or possibly even into our northern-
most counties.
The mid-upper 70 dewpoints have descended upon the region as expected,
and heat indices have reached triple digits over much of the area.
Already issued a Special Weather Statement for the heat. It should
subside by 7 PM, and would be surprised to see values above 105,
so will not be issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.
Overnight, the models struggle to generate much, if any,
convection over our region, so will keep PoPs at 30% or less.
The cold front will move through the region Sunday, and the low
to mid 70 dewpoints and temperatures well into the 90s are
expected ahead of it over the southeast 2/3 of the area in the
afternoon. This could lead to heat indices near today`s levels,
and a righteous airmass for strong to severe thunderstorms to feed
on. Winds ahead of the front will be nearly due west, and quite
strong, pushing Lake Wind Advisory levels, especially east of the
Mississippi River. The veered winds result in only weak
convergence along the boundary, so thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be widely scattered to scattered, with better coverage
later in the day along the Tennessee border. Certainly cannot rule
out a few severe storms mainly over west Kentucky and southwest
Indiana. The consensus of guidance is that most if not all of
the convective activity will shift south of the area by early
Sunday evening.
Will have a dry forecast for the entire area overnight Sunday
through Monday Night. A deep trough over the Great Lakes and
northeast will keep the area in strong northwest flow aloft
through the period. North winds will bring much cooler and drier
air into the region through the period, as well.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
Above medium confidence in the extended.
High pressure aloft will be firmly in place over west with a
persistent upper level trough over the east. This will place in a
much drier northerly flow in the fronts wake. This will also result
in unseasonable low RH reading for most of the upcoming week. By the
end of the week the upper level trough deepens and even suggest a
cut off upper low forming the lower Tennessee Valley Friday into the
weekend. This will allow for at least daytime storm chances mainly
in the afternoon with max heating...but could not rule out some
activity into the evening hours.
Temperatures will much cooler than normal through the extended with
lower to middle 80s for the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.
FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM.
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR
LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A
LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX,
ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.
FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OUT THE CYCLE
W/SOME TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY MONDAY. ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB, MVFR GOING TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR A TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.
TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.
MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.
UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.
MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).
WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.
PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.
LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.
BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).
WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.
PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.
LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.
BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.
LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.
BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH 2000 J/KG ML CAPE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. THE CAPE IS HIGH IN THE -10
TO -30 DEG C LAYER. THUS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS RISK EXISTS AS
WELL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/UPDATE/MARINE
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THINKING THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY 18Z.
ALREADY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR BIGGER HAIL...GOOD CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXITS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE NOW IN
WI...ADVANCING STEADILY EAST SOUTHEAST. INLAND LOCATIONS LIKE MOP
TO LAN TO JXN SEEM MOST VULNERABLE...BUT EVEN GRR AND AZO NOT OUT
OF THE THREAT AT THIS TIME. BY 22Z...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF LAN AND JXN.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WIDESPREAD LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR
THROUGH 15Z TO 16Z. BY MIDDAY...EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
VFR WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MVFR CLOUDS SAG BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF MOST PREVALENT STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT HAVE VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCATION OF
THE STORMS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY.
THIS SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE LONG SHORE AND STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE SWIMMING HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>847.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Trying to pin down convection threat for the remainder of tonight
remains somewhat of a head scratcher. However, as we dig into the
details of the 00z UA data becoming doubtful that the the storm-
free conditions we are currently experiencing will continue
throughout the entire night.
Although all of the 00z raobs in the area are indicating that the
strong cap is persisting throughout the region early this evening, water
vapor imagery indicates that strong mid level WNW flow is
beginning to dig south as trof rotates around the unseasonably
strong mid level low near nw MN, and this should drag some cooler
mid level air into northern sections of the CWA during the
predawn hours aiding in the erosion of this wedge of warm mid
level air. In addition to this cooling and dynamics with the
shortwave, low level forcing should also be increasing as cold
front works its way into the mid-Mississippi Valley. And...
while the "cooled" air from the rain associated with this
afternoon`s MCV is currently parked over the CWA, airmass west of
our area (that missed out on the rain) remains very unstable at
02z, with MLCAPES of 4000-5000 J/KG, and this air will be
advected back into our area due to weak but persistent westerly
low level flow.
So...whether the storms form upstream and advect into the area,
or form in situ near the Mississippi River as suggested by the
latest HRRR, 18z NAM, and latest RUC runs, thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast overnight. Overall, think current trends of
ramping PoPs up after 05z is very reasonable, with the greatest
PoPs over northern and central sections of the CWA, where forcing
should be the greatest. A conditional threat of severe
thunderstorm is still in the cards for the region as noted in the
SWODY1, as large scale shear will be increasing as the westerlies
dip into the mid- Mississippi Valley and interacts with the
residually unstable ams.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Primary concern continues to be convective trends for this evening.
Current trends are pointing more and more toward there being less
severe weather in our CWFA than previously expected, with the
primary threat for severe storms further north/northeast in
southeast IA and central IL. A broad area of showers and stratiform
rain associated with an MCV which is spinning its way across the
state is putting the kibosh on much of the instability which was
forecast for late this afternoon/evening. A limited ribbon of very
high CAPE (MLCAPE in excess of 3500-4000 J/Kg) remains over extreme
northeast MO into southern IA and a much larger area of high CAPE
over central and southern IL. Storms are already rumbling just
north of our CWFA in southern IA and west central IL and I would
expect these areas of storms to continue to develop and strengthen.
Still cannot rule out severe storms from Kirksville to Quincy and
southeast to Litchfield and possibly Salem...but the probability
seems to be much lower than previously expected.
After the evening severe weather threat has passed, there is still
the possibility that there could be additional development
overnight. RAP and NAM both show moderate moisture convergence at
850mb ahead of the front and generate QPF in response. Have left
chance/slight chance PoPs going for most of the area through the
night. The wind shift associated with the approaching cold front
should be sliding into the northern 1/3 of our CWFA between 09-12Z
with drier low level air trying to nose in. This should effectively
cut off the chance for additional precip in those areas in the
pre-dawn hours.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
The cold front is expected to push through early Sunday morning. A
minimal rain threat will exist during the morning near it, with a
dry afternoon on tap behind it. The cooling effects will not be
felt too much early on, with another warm day expected: max temps
still look to top 90 degrees for most areas near and south of I-70.
The big difference will be lower humidity from today, however.
After Sunday, an extended dry period is forecast as a deep longwave
upper TROF sets up over eastern North America with a stout NW flow
aloft for our region. This usually means either dry, or surprise
hit-and-run systems this time of year, but almost always means below
average temps. For now, am going with dry until Thursday, with low
PoPs thereafter as a system works its way down into our region and
stays for a bit.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Latest surface analysis continues to show slow progress with the
frontal boundaries to our north and west. Latest surface analysis
shows stationary front extending from central Wisconsin to an area
of weak low pressure west of Kansas City then southwest into
southwest Kansas. This front has moved little within the past 3
hours. Secondary frontal boundary extends from southern Minnesota
through northwest Kansas. This front has also made little progress
to the southeast. Upstairs 500 mb shortwave from over the High
Plains will slide southeast across the upper and parts of Mid-
Mississippi Valley region by 1200 - 1800 UTC time frame. Cold
front forecast east-central Missouri between 1200-1400 UTC.
Specifics for KSTL::Light and variable winds will become west-
southwesterly 5 to 8 kts after 0900 UTC. isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible after 1000 UTC but should be ending by
1200 UTC. Expect cold front to move across STL between 1200 and
1400 UTC. Expected scattered showers to end after 1200 UTC.
Przybylinski
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE RIDGE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ALSO TRIGGER MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY EAST
WINDS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR
EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL FRONTS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WETTER PERIOD HEADED TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL TRACKING INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE MOMENT CONTINUES TO SPARK WHAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A SHORT LIVED STORM. THIS BOUNDARY DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE THE FRONT JUST YET...WHICH WILL BE STARTING TO IMPACT
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THAT PART OF THE STATE TODAY...AND HIGHS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO COOL DOWN TOWARDS AVERAGE...OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW AS CONVECTION INCREASES THIS WEEK.
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINS COULD SAG
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO CONSIDERED ADDING THE
JEMEZ TO THE WATCH...ESPECIALLY AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO MANY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE ESPECIALLY THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AT
LEAST PART OF NEW MEXICO IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRUSH THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONTS TO IMPACT AT
LEAST THE PLAINS...BUT ALSO PUSHING MOISTURE WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THEN A STRONGER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
BATTER DOWN THE STRONG RIDGE...OR AT LEAST SHOVE IT EASTWARD A BIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY T-STORM RAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUE THRU THU
PERIOD. IN FACT...THE WED-THU PERIOD COULD END UP AMONG THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE VERY HIGH. MAX VENTILATION RATES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND MIN
RH/S UPWARD EACH DAY...WITH FAIR IF NOT POOR VENT CONDITIONS BY THU.
A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT TRENDS TO WATCH THRU TONIGHT. FIRST...A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO
LATER TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD T-STORM ACTIVITY FROM
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.
GUSTY EASTERLY GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR PLACES
LIKE TAOS AND SANTA FE...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR. THESE GAP WINDS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN A DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORM SET UP
FOR VALLEY/LOWLAND LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. GAP WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND TREND WILL BE A SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGE ALOFT OR AT LEAST A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER ERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
OVER SE ARIZONA AND FAR SW NEW MEXICO TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD AND
HELP TO BOOST STORM COVERAGE UPWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WEST BY THIS
EVENING...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BECOMING KEY FOR
VALLEY AND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG BECOMING CENTERED BETWEEN SANTA ROSA AND TUCUMCARI...AND ONCE
EARLY MORNING SHOWER AND CLOUD ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...IT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG HEATING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. STEERING WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN VERY
WEAK AND GENERALLY FAVOR EAST-SOUTHEAST STORM MOTIONS ACROSS NC/NE
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR CENTRAL/SW AREAS OR
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.
AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE T-STORM DAY ON MONDAY...AND A FEATURE TO WATCH
WILL BE AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST...THEN TURN
NORTH ALONG THE NM/AZ LINE. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE EAST AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD WED-WED PM...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID-WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP
UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED
RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT
BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD
7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO TO THE NORTHEAST. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE NAILED REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONT DVD. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY RACING
SOUTHWEST THRU THE PLAINS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS EVEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA. PLACED VCSH AT MOST TAF SITES
FROM KSAF/KABQ WEST THRU 09-10Z BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS WITH TS
IF ANY PARTICULAR AREA BECOMES FAVORED. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NM THRU ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SOME
BRIEF CLEARING DEVELOPS. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IN PLACE. HAD TO GO WITH LENGTHY VCTS AROUND
KGUP...AND FROM KLVS TO KTCC. MODELS ARE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AFT 00Z FOR THESE AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 96 66 90 66 / 20 30 30 40
DULCE........................... 91 53 83 53 / 30 60 50 40
CUBA............................ 89 55 84 55 / 40 70 50 40
GALLUP.......................... 90 59 86 59 / 50 40 30 40
EL MORRO........................ 86 56 81 56 / 40 50 50 40
GRANTS.......................... 89 59 83 59 / 30 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 87 59 81 59 / 40 40 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 93 58 87 58 / 40 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 84 47 79 47 / 50 70 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 61 80 61 / 40 50 40 50
PECOS........................... 82 56 75 56 / 40 60 60 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 52 75 52 / 50 60 60 40
RED RIVER....................... 71 45 69 45 / 80 70 70 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 46 72 46 / 70 70 50 50
TAOS............................ 86 54 81 54 / 40 50 50 40
MORA............................ 80 53 72 53 / 70 70 60 70
ESPANOLA........................ 92 59 85 59 / 30 40 30 40
SANTA FE........................ 89 60 82 60 / 40 50 50 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 62 85 62 / 30 40 40 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 67 86 67 / 30 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 69 89 69 / 20 30 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 96 64 89 64 / 20 30 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 65 89 65 / 20 30 30 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 63 90 63 / 20 30 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 66 89 66 / 20 40 30 40
SOCORRO......................... 100 70 93 70 / 10 20 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 59 80 59 / 30 40 40 50
TIJERAS......................... 90 63 83 63 / 30 30 40 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 56 85 56 / 30 30 30 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 59 82 59 / 30 30 30 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 93 63 84 63 / 20 20 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 66 85 66 / 10 20 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 88 59 81 59 / 20 20 40 30
CAPULIN......................... 79 56 72 56 / 80 70 50 40
RATON........................... 83 59 78 59 / 70 60 40 40
SPRINGER........................ 85 58 77 58 / 60 60 40 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 57 77 57 / 70 60 50 50
CLAYTON......................... 89 61 78 61 / 60 60 40 30
ROY............................. 87 60 76 60 / 60 70 50 40
CONCHAS......................... 92 65 82 65 / 50 60 30 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 66 84 66 / 40 40 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 67 87 67 / 40 40 30 40
CLOVIS.......................... 95 65 85 65 / 10 20 30 40
PORTALES........................ 97 67 87 67 / 10 20 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 68 87 68 / 20 20 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 99 70 94 70 / 5 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 93 65 86 65 / 10 10 20 20
ELK............................. 88 62 82 62 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-527>534.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE NAILED REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONT DVD. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY RACING
SOUTHWEST THRU THE PLAINS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS EVEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA. PLACED VCSH AT MOST TAF SITES
FROM KSAF/KABQ WEST THRU 09-10Z BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS WITH TS
IF ANY PARTICULAR AREA BECOMES FAVORED. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NM THRU ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SOME
BRIEF CLEARING DEVELOPS. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IN PLACE. HAD TO GO WITH LENGTHY VCTS AROUND
KGUP...AND FROM KLVS TO KTCC. MODELS ARE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AFT 00Z FOR THESE AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...348 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014...
.DISCUSSION...
BIG DIFFERENCE IN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTH BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOUNDING TELLING THE STORY.
SIMILAR DEWPOINTS AND SFC HEATING RESULTING IN MUCH MORE CONVECTION
TODAY. BETTER/DEEPER MIXING ALSO ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY. CLAYTON JUST HIT 100F BREAKING A DAILY RECORD
WITH TUCUMCARI ALREADY UP TO 103F AND ABQ SUNPORT AT 99F.
BACKDOOR FRONT STARTING TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO
THE TX BORDER AS STORM MOTION IS VERY LIGHT TO NIL AND PWATS IN
THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EAST THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. SYNOPTIC SCALE ELY SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY FORENOON
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND WRN NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HELPING TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL. FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONG EAST
WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS LIKELY AN HOUR OR TWO
PRIOR TO SUNSET CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ON
MONDAY. MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO AREAS WEST
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. 12Z AND 18Z NAM12 BOTH INDICATING THAT AN
MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS MONDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PROPAGATE EWD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
A MORE TYPICAL ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO DISCERNIBLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING TO HELP THINGS BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS. GFS SHIFTS MOST ACTIVITY TO CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT WWD AND WITH SLY TO SELY SFC FLOW...COULD GET STRONG
STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
MONSOON PLUME WEST OF STATE. TODAYS ROUND OF WETTING RAIN TO FAVOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE IN THE WORKS
STARTING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES...AND A VIGOROUS BACK
DOOR FRONT MOVES THE EASTERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK SUPPORTING SEVERAL MOIST INTRUSIONS
FROM THE EAST AND A GENERAL UPTICK IN THE WETTING RAIN PATTERN.
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY SMALL. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD IN THESE
AREAS WITH FAIR RECOVERIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES WELL
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY THEN STRENGTHEN
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...USHERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN WESTERN ZONES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
STATEWIDE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE AS WELL WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES MOST LOCATIONS.
MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON MONDAY AS THE
MONSOON PLUME MOISTENS UP A BIT AND EDGES TO THE EAST...SETTING UP
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SUPPORTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY...WITH THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SEEING THE LEAST ACTIVITY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTENT MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL OR BELOW ACROSS THE EAST.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-527-528-530-531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REACHING EASTERN NEW YORK STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH 700 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF
AN OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY A
SIMILAR TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFFLUENCE WILL ALIGN
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS...SUBTLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS RAINFALL...AND IT WILL BE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH COULD PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH
THRESHOLD. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TOO DEEP
WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES REFLECT 00/06Z GUIDANCE AND
PUT THE BULLS-EYE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR TENDING TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THIS...HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY LIKELY TO
IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE IS URBAN AREAS AND THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL
TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER
BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER. ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE
AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.
EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO BUFFALO LATE THIS EVENING AND ROCHESTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT TERRIBLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS A
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COOLER AIR AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.
THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING FROM SW- NE AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP
A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD POSSIBLY. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO THE
NAM/RGEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. EVEN LAKE
ERIE BEARS WATCHING...WITH WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COOLER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
MAY CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
700 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF
AN OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY THE
SAME TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFLUENCE WILL ALIGN
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS SUBTLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS THIS MOISTURE...AND IT WILL BE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH
THRESHOLD. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TOO
DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES REFLECT 00/06Z
GUIDANCE AND PUT THE BULLS-EYE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR TENDING TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THIS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL
BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY LIKELY TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION.
FORECAST FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE IS
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH
FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE
LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER.
ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.
EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO BUFFALO LATE THIS EVENING AND ROCHESTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WILL END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE
SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.
ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING FROM SW- NE AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP
A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD POSSIBLY. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME MODEST
CHOP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO THE
NAM/RGEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. EVEN
LAKE ERIE BEARS WATCHING...WITH WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.
NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.
WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEAST ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE
PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE 1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS
FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS
SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A
BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE
OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z. SO AS THIS WAVE
PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN NC NY AND
TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.
THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.
IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.
FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.
FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.
SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.
MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.
W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1051 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.
NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SCP VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.
WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEAST ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE
PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE 1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS
FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS
SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A
BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE
OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z. SO AS THIS WAVE
PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN NC NY AND
TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.
THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.
IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.
FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.
FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z WILL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS BY 12Z BUT LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SCT/BKN FAIR WX CU AND BKN CI EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND
AT 06Z AT KSYR/KRME.
S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT SUNDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACRS THE CPV/DACKS TO CHC.
CONTINUED TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS FOR PRECIP ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...BUT THIS WL CLR OUR CWA BY 16Z TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
RANGED BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH 0.30
FALLING AT BTV THRU 10 AM. NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS A FEW
BREAKS ACRS THE SLV...WHICH WL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CPV/VT BY
EARLY THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK 5H VORT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH WL PASS ALONG OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA BTWN 17Z-
22Z TODAY. THINKING THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME SFC
HEATING WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN.
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ULVL FORCING WL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE THIS AFTN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACRS THE
CPV...FROM SFC HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST HRRR AND BTV4KM HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT PULSE LIKE STORMS...WITH NO REAL
ORGANIZATION. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S (MTNS) TO LOWER 80S (SLV/CPV) BY EARLY
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN
DEVELOP.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.
TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.
MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.
TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.
850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.
CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.
THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.
IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.
FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.
FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z WILL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS BY 12Z BUT LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SCT/BKN FAIR WX CU AND BKN CI EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND
AT 06Z AT KSYR/KRME.
S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.
THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.
IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.
FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.
FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
FIRST ROUND ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DUE TO CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SUNDAY...GIVEN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS PER COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY...I`VE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX TO
REFLECT AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS LAKE HURON PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. I ALSO NOTE A RATHER SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO - ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES (-1 TO -2) PER 03Z RAP ANALYSES IN ADDITION TO
AFOREMENTIONED MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THOSE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS ARE
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD...LIKELY KEEPING A THUNDER THREAT
GOING AS IT MOVES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
MORE SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ADIRONDACKS BY THE PRE- DAWN
HOURS/SUNRISE...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 6-7 AM. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. CHANGE
IN WX GRIDS ESSENTIALLY STATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED T-STORMS TIED TO HIGHEST POP (70-80%).
OTHERWISE...MADE MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS ACROSS EAST VT
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS
OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FORECAST
FOCUS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ON SUNDAY...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ON SUNDAY...1ST
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT VT BY 15Z. QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO CAUSE SURFACE
HEATING AND INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MODELS VARY ON THIS
GREATLY WITH THE LOCAL BTV4 SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800
J/KG...WHILE NAM12 IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 J/KG AND THE GFS VALUES
RANGE FROM 800 TO 1000 J/KG...WITH ALL MODELS SUGGESTING 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER MORNING S/W ENERGY EXITS OUR
AREA...BUT LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN WILL BE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
EASTERN/CENTRAL OUR AREA THROUGH 15Z...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED THEREFORE WILL NOT
MENTION IN GRIDS...BUT WILL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 12-14C ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN/MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M70S MOUNTAINS/NEK TO
U70S/L80S WARMER VALLEYS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOWS A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DEEP TROF WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR OUR AREA...WITH A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL EVENT LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POTENT S/W
ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE A
NEGATIVELY TITLED 7/5H TROF DEVELOPS. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE LOW
PRES TRACKING FROM NW PA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS OUR OUR AREA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN A NICE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LIKE MOST WINTER STORMS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
COME IN 2 PARTS...1ST WILL BE MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT/MOISTURE BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH BRIEF BREAK...BEFORE WRAP
AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ON
BACKSIDE AFT 18Z MONDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION IF INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...FOR POTENTIAL STORMS. THINKING
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR
SOUTH...PLACING MOST OF OUR OUR AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
STORM. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z GFS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 1500
AND 1800 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH POSITION OF POTENT 5H VORT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY ESPECIALLY IF
SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS FURTHER WEST AND PLACES OUR OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED
WITH BACK SIDE DEFORMATION. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF 850
TO 500MB RH WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 700MB UVVS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50" ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO EASTERN VT. NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPEND UPON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...THINKING MAINLY 60S MOUNTAINS TO
70S VALLEYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.
850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..TRENDING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TODAY THEN DECREASE.
CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM SLK TO BTV AND
RUT TO MPV MOVING WEST TO EAST 09-13Z BUT WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON
BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER
THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IN CANADA. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT.
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.
THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.
IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.
FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.
FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
FIRST ROUND ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DUE TO CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SUNDAY...GIVEN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS PER COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY...I`VE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX TO
REFLECT AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS LAKE HURON PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. I ALSO NOTE A RATHER SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO - ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES (-1 TO -2) PER 03Z RAP ANALYSES IN ADDITION TO
AFOREMENTIONED MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THOSE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS ARE
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD...LIKELY KEEPING A THUNDER THREAT
GOING AS IT MOVES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
MORE SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ADIRONDACKS BY THE PRE- DAWN
HOURS/SUNRISE...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 6-7 AM. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. CHANGE
IN WX GRIDS ESSENTIALLY STATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED T-STORMS TIED TO HIGHEST POP (70-80%).
OTHERWISE...MADE MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS ACROSS EAST VT
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS
OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FORECAST
FOCUS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ON SUNDAY...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ON SUNDAY...1ST
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT VT BY 15Z. QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO CAUSE SURFACE
HEATING AND INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MODELS VARY ON THIS
GREATLY WITH THE LOCAL BTV4 SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800
J/KG...WHILE NAM12 IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 J/KG AND THE GFS VALUES
RANGE FROM 800 TO 1000 J/KG...WITH ALL MODELS SUGGESTING 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER MORNING S/W ENERGY EXITS OUR
AREA...BUT LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN WILL BE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
EASTERN/CENTRAL OUR AREA THROUGH 15Z...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED THEREFORE WILL NOT
MENTION IN GRIDS...BUT WILL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 12-14C ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN/MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M70S MOUNTAINS/NEK TO
U70S/L80S WARMER VALLEYS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOWS A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DEEP TROF WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR OUR AREA...WITH A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL EVENT LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POTENT S/W
ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE A
NEGATIVELY TITLED 7/5H TROF DEVELOPS. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE LOW
PRES TRACKING FROM NW PA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS OUR OUR AREA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN A NICE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LIKE MOST WINTER STORMS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
COME IN 2 PARTS...1ST WILL BE MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT/MOISTURE BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH BRIEF BREAK...BEFORE WRAP
AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ON
BACKSIDE AFT 18Z MONDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION IF INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...FOR POTENTIAL STORMS. THINKING
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR
SOUTH...PLACING MOST OF OUR OUR AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
STORM. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z GFS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 1500
AND 1800 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH POSITION OF POTENT 5H VORT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY ESPECIALLY IF
SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS FURTHER WEST AND PLACES OUR OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED
WITH BACK SIDE DEFORMATION. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF 850
TO 500MB RH WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 700MB UVVS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50" ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO EASTERN VT. NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPEND UPON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...THINKING MAINLY 60S MOUNTAINS TO
70S VALLEYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE DECREASING TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DEPART INTO EASTERN CANADA.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME...AND
WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER BY
THIS TIME IN POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE
GFS HAS TROUGH RETROGRADING. HAVE GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
BE NO HIGHER THAN +10C TUE THEN MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO 11-13C WED
THROUGH FRI. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
TUE/WED...MODERATING TO AROUND 80 THU/FRI...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..TRENDING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TODAY THEN DECREASE.
CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM SLK TO BTV AND
RUT TO MPV MOVING WEST TO EAST 09-13Z BUT WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON
BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER
THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IN CANADA. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT.
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
201 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVE BRINGING TONIGHTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL BE WEAK ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA WILL
RESIDE BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE... BUT AT THIS
TIME WE ARE ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE COVERAGE DUE TO
THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.
FORCING WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. SOME STORMS
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FROM THE AFTERNOON.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM SWINGS EAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
POTENTIAL INCREASING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY MONDAY... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
STEADY AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE A COOL DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT. RAINFALL
WILL TAPER OFF AND END TOWARD MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
A COOL DAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
FIRST ROUND ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DUE TO CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SUNDAY...GIVEN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS PER COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY...I`VE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX TO
REFLECT AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS LAKE HURON PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. I ALSO NOTE A RATHER SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO - ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTER
INDICES (-1 TO -2) PER 03Z RAP ANALYSES IN ADDITION TO
AFOREMENTIONED MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THOSE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS ARE
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD...LIKELY KEEPING A THUNDER THREAT
GOING AS IT MOVES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
MORE SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ADIRONDACKS BY THE PRE- DAWN
HOURS/SUNRISE...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 6-7 AM. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. CHANGE
IN WX GRIDS ESSENTIALLY STATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED T-STORMS TIED TO HIGHEST POP (70-80%).
OTHERWISE...MADE MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS ACROSS EAST VT
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS
OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FORECAST
FOCUS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ON SUNDAY...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ON SUNDAY...1ST
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT VT BY 15Z. QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO CAUSE SURFACE
HEATING AND INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MODELS VARY ON THIS
GREATLY WITH THE LOCAL BTV4 SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800
J/KG...WHILE NAM12 IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 J/KG AND THE GFS VALUES
RANGE FROM 800 TO 1000 J/KG...WITH ALL MODELS SUGGESTING 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER MORNING S/W ENERGY EXITS OUR
AREA...BUT LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN WILL BE FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
EASTERN/CENTRAL OUR AREA THROUGH 15Z...THEN TAPER TO CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED THEREFORE WILL NOT
MENTION IN GRIDS...BUT WILL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 12-14C ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN/MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M70S MOUNTAINS/NEK TO
U70S/L80S WARMER VALLEYS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOWS A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DEEP TROF WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR OUR AREA...WITH A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL EVENT LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POTENT S/W
ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE A
NEGATIVELY TITLED 7/5H TROF DEVELOPS. THIS ENERGY...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE LOW
PRES TRACKING FROM NW PA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS OUR OUR AREA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN A NICE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LIKE MOST WINTER STORMS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
COME IN 2 PARTS...1ST WILL BE MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT/MOISTURE BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH BRIEF BREAK...BEFORE WRAP
AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ON
BACKSIDE AFT 18Z MONDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION IF INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...FOR POTENTIAL STORMS. THINKING
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR
SOUTH...PLACING MOST OF OUR OUR AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
STORM. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z GFS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 1500
AND 1800 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH POSITION OF POTENT 5H VORT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY ESPECIALLY IF
SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS FURTHER WEST AND PLACES OUR OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED
WITH BACK SIDE DEFORMATION. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF 850
TO 500MB RH WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 700MB UVVS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50" ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO EASTERN VT. NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPEND UPON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...THINKING MAINLY 60S MOUNTAINS TO
70S VALLEYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE DECREASING TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DEPART INTO EASTERN CANADA.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME...AND
WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER BY
THIS TIME IN POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE
GFS HAS TROUGH RETROGRADING. HAVE GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
BE NO HIGHER THAN +10C TUE THEN MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO 11-13C WED
THROUGH FRI. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
TUE/WED...MODERATING TO AROUND 80 THU/FRI...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
VFR/MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
AGAIN TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED UNDER INCREASING
CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF
SITES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AFTER 04Z AT
MSS/SLK...AND 07Z ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO
VFR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH
FOR NOW. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5
TO 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KBTV FOR FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 06Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...
AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.
NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...
GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...
AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.
NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.
A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
CLOUDS ARE STAYING PRETTY THICK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL INCREASE
CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN NRLY FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH THAT...HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN OR
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE IS TO UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT IT TO DECREASE SOME BY AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...EXCEPT AT KJMS
WHERE THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. AS THE
MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING SKY WILL COMMENCE
NEAR/AROUND SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10KT AND 15KT
THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OVERALL KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
628 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE CHANNEL AND THAT
BEEFED UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING STRATO CU A LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE
THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL STILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW VFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...EXCEPT AT KJMS
WHERE THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. AS THE
MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING SKY WILL COMMENCE
NEAR/AROUND SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10KT AND 15KT
THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCT/BKN LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z SUNDAY...THEN TREND TOWARD AN ALL SCT/BKN LOW VFR BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKC SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.
BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES NEAR THE CREST BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
&&
.UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING. MAIN
ITEMS WERE TO MAKE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT BASED ON
WHERE DEW POINTS SEEM TO BE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...FELT A DEW POINT
FORECAST WAS BETTER SUITED TO BASE TEMPERATURES FROM. IN
ALL...EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS AT LEAST THE SAME OR A BIT
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED JUST ABOUT ALL CLOUDS EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY STRATUS COULD REMAIN.
THE HRRR CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT DATA APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING
THE CURRENT EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE NAM HAVING A MUCH BETTER
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT REALITY. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE NAM FOR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO FEEL THAT PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP IN LOCALIZED DRAINAGES...SUCH AS THE
TILLAMOOK VALLEY. THAT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
FOR TOMORROW...MADE SOME BASIC ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES GIVEN AN
OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD COVER. DON`T EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE ANY
COLDER THAN TODAY TO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO
ENSURE THAT`S THE CASE. FINALLY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATED IT WOULD. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND REALLY WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT WAS AROUND THE 5 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME BEFORE THEY
INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE WEST SLOPES. WITH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CREST...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START
SAY AFTER 2 PM WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ONE COULD DRIFT OVER TO THE
WEST SIDE BEFORE 5 PM. UPDATES AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 206 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING. TEMPS INLAND STILL LOOK ON TRACK PUSH INTO THE
MID 80S IN MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS AT THE COAST ARE TRYING TO CRACK
70.
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER
RIDGE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT WARMER. EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP TO AROUND 90 BOTH DAYS...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 90 BY
MONDAY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE NEAR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND FAR NORTH OREGON COASTS...BUT MAY NOT BE REALLY SOLID. EVEN THE
COAST WILL SEE SOME NICE TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 BOTH DAYS...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AFTER THE BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO MONDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST UP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...THAT WILL GIVE OUR OREGON CASCADE CREST AREA A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE
MOISTURE STILL BRUSHING EASTERN LANE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL BUT THERE IS LESS OF A TRIGGER ON MONDAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WILL TEND TO BE OF THE HIGH BASED DRIER
VARIETY. THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST IN OREGON AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOLLESON
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE
INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS PUTS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD VERSUS THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD IS THAT THE UPPER FLOW MAY TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AND
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT A GREATER PORTION OF THE CASCADES AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILL AREAS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY SPREAD UP INTO THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN EXCEEDING AN INCH IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL TEND TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AT LEAST
AT FIRST. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND
UP AROUND 90. WE MAY EVENTUALLY SEE SOME MARINE SEEPAGE THROUGH
COASTAL GAPS DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR MUCH COOLING TO ARRIVE INLAND. TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
18Z SUNDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LEADING
TO LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT PERIODS
OF GUSTY 20 TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING TO
7 FT AND BECOMING STEEP AND SQUARE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM
PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN IS AFTERNOON TSRA POTENTIAL. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE BUT PREDOMINATELY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A WARM
LAYER OF AIR AROUND FL060. BEST CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP APPEARS NEAR MKL AFTER 21Z. BASED
ON 12Z NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOWED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP...
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS AT MEM...BUT DIALED BACK THE START TIME TO 22Z
AND REDUCED CB COVERAGE.
GRADUAL /AROUND 2 HOUR/ VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR PREVAILING
AREAWIDE IN THE DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
AS OF 10AM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MID LEVEL BROKEN
STRATUS DECK RESIDES OVER THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE FA...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT VERY SOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID 70S...PUTTING MOST AREAS AT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF MID TO
UPPER 90S ALREADY. OPTED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL MEET OR EXCEED
THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN MI...DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL IL...AND INTO CENTRAL MO.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LARGE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH
OF THE MID-SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 4000 J/KG AND LI`S NEAR -10C. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS STORM
INITIATION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 22Z-00Z TIME RANGE ALONG
A LINE FROM JONESBORO AR TO PARIS TN AND THEN MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AS A BROKEN LINE THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STORMS
THAT DO INITIATE WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF PURE
INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS STILL APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. UPDATED THE HWO TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE...AND
MOST OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
ALL OTHER FORECASTED PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK. NEW GRIDS AND ZONES
WILL BE AVAILABLE SOON.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ITS A WARM MUGGY SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. TODAY MIGHT BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
SO FAR THIS YEAR...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S. WITH HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM RECENTLY SO SHAVED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH ARE IN THE
97-98 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING HELPING TO FOCUS
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES WILL CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG WITH LI`S BELOW -9C. STORMS
WILL LIKELY TURN SEVERE VERY QUICKLY AS THEY DEVELOP. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR EAST WHERE A MID LEVEL
JET WILL ENHANCE STORMS...BUT AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND JACKSON TENNESSEE COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS ONLY ABOUT
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE...PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
MONDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH. MUCH LIKE
WE HAVE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. MORNING LOWS MIDWEEK MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY DURING THE
WORK WEEK...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY HIGHS MAY APPROACH
90 DEGREES AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN PRETTY LOW
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN IS AFTERNOON TSRA POTENTIAL. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE BUT PREDOMINATELY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A WARM
LAYER OF AIR AROUND FL060. BEST CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP APPEARS NEAR MKL AFTER 21Z. BASED
ON 12Z NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOWED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP...
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS AT MEM...BUT DIALED BACK THE START TIME TO 22Z
AND REDUCED CB COVERAGE.
GRADUAL /AROUND 2 HOUR/ VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR PREVAILING
AREAWIDE IN THE DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1013 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
AS OF 10AM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MID LEVEL BROKEN
STRATUS DECK RESIDES OVER THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE FA...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT VERY SOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID 70S...PUTTING MOST AREAS AT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF MID TO
UPPER 90S ALREADY. OPTED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL MEET OR EXCEED
THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN MI...DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL IL...AND INTO CENTRAL MO.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LARGE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH
OF THE MID-SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 4000 J/KG AND LI`S NEAR -10C. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS STORM
INITIATION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 22Z-00Z TIME RANGE ALONG
A LINE FROM JONESBORO AR TO PARIS TN AND THEN MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AS A BROKEN LINE THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STORMS
THAT DO INITIATE WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF PURE
INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS STILL APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. UPDATED THE HWO TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE...AND
MOST OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
ALL OTHER FORECASTED PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK. NEW GRIDS AND ZONES
WILL BE AVAILABLE SOON.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ITS A WARM MUGGY SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. TODAY MIGHT BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
SO FAR THIS YEAR...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S. WITH HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM RECENTLY SO SHAVED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH ARE IN THE
97-98 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING HELPING TO FOCUS
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES WILL CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG WITH LI`S BELOW -9C. STORMS
WILL LIKELY TURN SEVERE VERY QUICKLY AS THEY DEVELOP. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR EAST WHERE A MID LEVEL
JET WILL ENHANCE STORMS...BUT AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND JACKSON TENNESSEE COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS ONLY ABOUT
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE...PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
MONDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH. MUCH LIKE
WE HAVE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. MORNING LOWS MIDWEEK MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY DURING THE
WORK WEEK...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY HIGHS MAY APPROACH
90 DEGREES AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN PRETTY LOW
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. KMKL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AMONG THE TAF SITES
TO SEE THUNDERSTORM SO HAVE VCTS THERE OTHERWISE COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TODAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.
FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.
LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 84 64 83 61 / 50 50 30 40 30
TULIA 63 83 66 84 62 / 40 50 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 65 83 67 89 62 / 40 40 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 68 88 68 92 63 / 30 20 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 67 87 70 92 63 / 30 30 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 69 92 68 95 62 / 20 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 69 91 69 94 64 / 30 20 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 67 83 69 84 66 / 30 60 30 40 30
SPUR 69 88 69 94 65 / 20 30 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 70 92 72 97 68 / 20 30 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
16/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 10 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM YESTERDAY AND CU FIELD CONSIDERABLY
LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER COLUMN WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. ONLY THE HRRR IS SHOWING PCPN ON THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTN. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS SO WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF VCSH. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCXO AND KLBX. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET MORNING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY AND HOT DAY
AS 5H RIDGING HAS NOW ENVELOPED THE REGION. LOWER LAYERS ARE
ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIR MASS UPON WARMER SOUTHWESTERLIES WHILE
UPPER LAYER FLOW IS DRAWING IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
THIS TEAMING OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EQUATE TO A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY AS MANY INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S...AROUND 90F AT COAST...WITH AN EARLY DAY SOUTHWEST BREEZE
BACKING SOUTHERLY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 90F. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA...PRECIP
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG
THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE S
PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 96 76 93 / 10 10 20 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 77 95 77 93 / 10 10 10 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 81 91 81 90 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.
NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL TREND IS DIMINISHING...THOUGH DID ADD FEW
HOURS OF SHOWERS AT WESTERN TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. MAINTAINED VCSH
MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTN. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.
NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LOOK TO BE
SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND
AFTN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI AT MID-DAY WITH EXTENSIVE
WRAP AROUND CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST AND BEST LIFT EXITS ALONG WITH IT...ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNWARD
MOTIONS TO HELP FLATTEN AND EVENTUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE THE CLOUD
COVER. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TREND...BUT AM
LEARY OF THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF SCT CLOUD COVER...BUT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS AGAIN TOMORROW...WENT BACK TO BKN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WELVAERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING TEMPS AFTER
THAT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVE IN.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL ALSO MONITOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS SUGGEST VFR CIGS.
IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.
THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.
DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.
MARINE...
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.
BEACHES...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.
THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.
DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. STARK
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA. MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.
MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.
THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE LOW SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE BY
12Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THE TAF LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STARK
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH
ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 60 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 30 40 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
401 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LAKE BREEZE PSBL THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE OR E
BEHIND IT. BEST CHANCE OF LAKE BREEZE AT MDW.
* CHANCE OF ISOL/SCT SHRA AND TSRA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WE REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK FLOW WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE PERIOD
RESULTING IN VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. PATCHY VFR CLOUDS WILL
PASS OVER THE TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF BKN TO OVC VFR CIGS.
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED...BUT HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR
WEST THE LAKE BREEZE WILL TRAVEL. BASED ON SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...THINKING THE LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT MDW AND GYY BUT
STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD. SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
COVERAGE AND IF THE ISOL TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER
THE TERMINALS. WINDS BACK TO WNW THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EASTERN PUSH OF LAKE BREEZE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND
TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/IMPACTING TERMINALS...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF
SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULE OUT (MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING)
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4AM CDT AS PLANNED. WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND VARY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE. A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ROTATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO DRIVE WINDS OVER 15 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES WILL BE FAVORED IN NEAR SHORE AREAS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE EVENING OVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LAKE ON MANY
NIGHTS.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies will continue overnight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning, and then dissipate again during the evening. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then northwesterly again
tomorrow at around 10kts. Winds will then become light again
during the evening out of the west-southwest.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.
For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night. Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.
Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 78 63 70 / 10 50 90 90
GCK 61 77 63 69 / 10 40 90 90
EHA 63 79 62 73 / 20 60 90 70
LBL 64 78 63 71 / 20 70 90 90
HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70
P28 64 83 65 70 / 10 40 90 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXITING ALONG THE TUG FORK. WILL REMOVE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME OF THE SKY
COVER...AS SOME LOWER STRATUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG MORE PATCHY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LIMIT SHOWERS TONIGHT TO THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW
SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED
AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE...
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY
SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST
KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS
WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH
NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON...
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO
FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE
KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON
ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL
SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY
AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12
GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO
ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
EXPECT THE HIGHER BASED CU TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS DAWN...SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN SCATTER
OUT BY AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 30 20 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 40 20 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT. SOME SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT HAVE NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 60 87 66 / 10 2 5 13
MERIDIAN 89 57 87 62 / 10 2 5 10
VICKSBURG 88 59 87 64 / 10 2 5 19
HATTIESBURG 91 64 89 65 / 3 2 2 6
NATCHEZ 87 61 86 66 / 3 2 2 11
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 65 / 10 2 13 32
GREENWOOD 85 56 84 63 / 10 2 8 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAPE TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.
AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMLS. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS PERSIST
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE AREA. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
1/B 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
1/B 01/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
0/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
2/T 01/U 02/T 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.
THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES. IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.
MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 85 62 89 62 / 50 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 76 51 82 51 / 70 30 30 40
CUBA............................ 78 55 83 54 / 80 30 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 81 57 85 58 / 30 20 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 83 54 / 40 30 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 80 55 84 55 / 50 20 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 80 57 84 57 / 30 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 86 58 90 59 / 30 20 20 20
CHAMA........................... 71 47 76 47 / 90 50 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 58 82 56 / 90 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 75 55 80 53 / 90 30 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 51 74 51 / 90 50 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 64 45 65 43 / 90 70 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 43 70 43 / 90 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 73 51 78 51 / 70 40 30 50
MORA............................ 73 51 75 50 / 90 40 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 80 58 85 57 / 70 30 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 77 59 82 57 / 80 30 30 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 79 58 85 57 / 70 30 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 65 88 62 / 70 30 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 85 67 90 64 / 60 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 65 92 62 / 50 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 66 90 63 / 60 30 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 63 92 61 / 50 30 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 84 65 89 63 / 60 30 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 87 68 93 65 / 50 30 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 60 85 55 / 70 40 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 81 61 86 57 / 70 30 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 56 85 54 / 70 30 20 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 79 58 82 53 / 70 30 20 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 80 61 86 57 / 70 30 20 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 64 88 61 / 30 20 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 77 56 83 52 / 60 40 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 73 57 69 53 / 80 80 50 50
RATON........................... 75 57 70 55 / 70 60 40 50
SPRINGER........................ 77 57 74 55 / 70 40 30 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 55 77 52 / 70 40 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 79 62 73 56 / 70 70 40 40
ROY............................. 76 60 74 56 / 70 50 30 50
CONCHAS......................... 85 66 85 62 / 60 40 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 65 84 60 / 70 40 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 67 85 61 / 70 40 20 40
CLOVIS.......................... 84 64 87 60 / 60 40 20 40
PORTALES........................ 86 65 89 61 / 60 30 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 86 66 89 62 / 60 40 20 40
ROSWELL......................... 91 68 96 66 / 30 20 10 30
PICACHO......................... 83 63 91 61 / 40 30 20 50
ELK............................. 80 61 86 58 / 50 50 30 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.
BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 70 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 60 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 85 69 93 62 79 / 50 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 30 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 30 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 40 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. LBB WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST
TERMINAL IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION...AS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING CDS DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS LATER
ACTIVITY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL IMPACTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.
FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.
LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 84 64 83 61 / 50 50 30 40 30
TULIA 63 83 66 84 62 / 40 50 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 65 83 67 89 62 / 40 40 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 68 88 68 92 63 / 30 20 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 67 87 70 92 63 / 30 30 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 69 92 68 95 62 / 20 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 69 91 69 94 64 / 30 20 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 67 83 69 84 66 / 30 60 30 40 30
SPUR 69 88 69 94 65 / 20 30 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 70 92 72 97 68 / 20 30 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
16/99/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 20Z TUESDAY. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY BY 10Z. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE I-35 TAF
SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 10 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NOW HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA
TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED SURFACE BASE CAPE TODAY. WITH
THE LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR/ARW/NAM 4KM...INDICATE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS THE LATEST 29.03Z RAP/29.00Z NAM SHOW
0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 29.00Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW SOME CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
THURSDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREATS LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS
TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH PERIODS OF VFR CLOUDS AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY OVER WI TUESDAY AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WOULD EXPECT MORE WEATHER EFFECTS OVER WI...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KLSE NOW AS IT APPEARS SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. IF THE INTENSITY IS STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE SHOWERS...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE FURTHER EAST OF THE KLSE AIRFIELD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED. THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH. OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT. THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS HRRR THRU MID AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE ELY BY 18Z. AFT 21Z MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM FOOTHILLS
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS. IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT THEN COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILTIES UP TO AN HOUR AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. FOR
TONIGHT NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO EVOLVE. COULD SEE A STEADY
RAIN EVENT DVLP WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 20 40 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 50 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 79 / 50 20 60 50
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 60 50
NAPLES 90 80 90 78 / 30 40 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT MDW LATER THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
HAD TO DROP THE PROB 30 FOR THUNDER DUE TO THE RESTRICTIONS OF
HAVING IT WITHIN THE FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME I
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDER IN THIS AFTERNOONS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STILL CERTAINLY STILL A LOW END THREAT OF
THUNDER IMPACTING THE AIRFIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
21-22 UTC HOUR.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8 KT BY MID
MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MDW AND
GYY. WINDS WILL TURN EAST AT MDW BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE AND
NORTHEAST AT GYY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO EXTRA FORCING ALONG IT. STILL
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW MANY STORMS WILL OCCUR...BUT HAVE
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS.
WINDS SLOWLY BECOME WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4AM CDT AS PLANNED. WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND VARY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE. A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ROTATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO DRIVE WINDS OVER 15 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES WILL BE FAVORED IN NEAR SHORE AREAS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE EVENING OVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LAKE ON MANY
NIGHTS.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS continues to be the
dominant weather-maker across central Illinois today. Northerly
flow is providing unseasonably cool temperatures, with afternoon
highs once again expected to remain in the 70s. Main question will
be whether or not any showers will develop within the cyclonic
flow pattern aloft. Not really seeing much of anything on the
latest water vapor imagery, so am skeptical any showers will form
today. Will however hold on to just slight chance PoPs northeast
of I-74 as HRRR/NAM12 both develop a few showers across northeast
Illinois late this afternoon. No zone updated needed at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 609 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all central Illinois TAF sites for
the next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover will develop with daytime
heating. Cool air aloft may allow a few convective showers to
develop...mainly KPRG-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys quite isolated and too low probability for mention in
TAFs. After 00z...any shower activity/cloud cover diminishing.
Winds increasing to NW8-12 kts by 15Z...decreasing to W up to 5
kts after 00Z.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED AT MDW THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE
OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 8 KT BY MID
MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MDW AND
GYY. WINDS WILL TURN EAST AT MDW BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE AND
NORTHEAST AT GYY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO EXTRA FORCING ALONG IT. STILL
HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW MANY STORMS WILL OCCUR...BUT HAVE
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS.
WINDS SLOWLY BECOME WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EASTERN PUSH OF LAKE BREEZE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND
TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/IMPACTING
TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
WILL END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4AM CDT AS PLANNED. WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND VARY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE. A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ROTATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO DRIVE WINDS OVER 15 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES WILL BE FAVORED IN NEAR SHORE AREAS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE EVENING OVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LAKE ON MANY
NIGHTS.
JEE/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
628 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 609 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all central Illinois TAF sites for
the next 24hrs. Mostly clear skies will continue until late
morning then scattered cloud cover will develop with daytime
heating. Cool air aloft may allow a few convective showers to
develop...mainly KPRG-KGBG northward...however any MVFR
cigs/vsbys quite isolated and too low probability for mention in
TAFs. After 00z...any shower activity/cloud cover diminishing.
Winds increasing to NW8-12 kts by 15Z...decreasing to W up to 5
kts after 00Z.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
718 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A significant, excessive rainfall event appears more and more likely
across portions of southwest, west central, and south central
Kansas. lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will increase
substantially in the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, thanks to coupling
dynamics for ascent from the exiting Midwest jet and perturbed
monsoon flow from northern Arizona rotating anticyclonically into
Colorado. There was a fairly well-defined vorticity anomaly moving
north-northeast into southern Utah, with greatest area of potential
vorticity advection (and subsequent mid-tropospheric ascent) moving
into western Colorado as of 08Z this morning. Every numerical
weather prediction we can get our hands on shows the same thing: a
swath of 2 to 5 inches of storm total QPF, with much of it falling
in the 06-18Z time frame Wednesday. The question still remains where
the important 850-750mb mean frontogenesis will set up. There has
been a slight trend to the north with the frontogenetic zone in the
GFS and now the latest 29.06Z run of the NAM12.
There are a couple things that are concerning for a flood/flash
flood threat: 1) the monsoon influence. Water vapor satellite loop
shows a fairly large area of fairly high content water vapor
(tropical in nature) all across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies and into far western Kansas. 29.00Z RAOB at Grand
Junction, CO and Albuquerque, NM both show deep tropical moisture
up above 500mb (500mb mixing ratio at or just above 4 g/kg). 2)
orientation of 750-850mb zone of frontogenesis with deep
tropospheric mean flow. The frontogenetic zone will setup in a
west-northwest to east-southeast orientation during the time frame
in question late tonight through the first half of Wednesday,
which will be nearly parallel to the 850-300mb thickness field,
which is usually a good indication of MCS motion in this
environment. Training of storms in a high-precipitation effeciency
environment is definitely a strong possibility. This will
certainly lead to some areas seeing excessive rainfall over a short
period of time. Per collaboration with AMA, OUN, and PUB, we
decided to all join in on a Flash Flood Watch. The official QPF
grids will reflect storm total amounts in excess of 2 inches over
a large portion of the area south of roughly a Scott City to
Jetmore to Pratt line. There will likely be a band or two of 4 or
even 5-inch amounts when all is said and done, but this level of
detail cannot be forecast at this time. All indications are that
the atmosphere will be capable of this excessive rainfall total,
though, and we will mention this in the Flash Flood Watch product.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
Little overall change was made to the forecast elements in the days
2 and 3 timeframe with respect to the meteorological elements.
Following the models, some downward adjustment in PoPs was made for
Wednesday afternoon when convection and stratiform rain should be
winding down across south central Kansas as the mid level
frontogenetic zone weakens and moves south of the region. The GFS
advertises the highest amount of QPF, on the order of 3 to 5 inches
on Wednesday, which could easily be achievable with training storms
in this MIDLEVEL tropical relatively warm collision-coalescence
environment. The consensus of models continue to indicate cool
temperatures in the the upper 60`s where the heaviest deep cloud
layer produces rain cooled air through the day. Beyond Wednesday,
the region will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with
a signal for late afternoon convection along the Palmer divide and
sangre de cristo mts, occasionally moving into extreme sw Kansas by
early evening. High temperatures should moderate through the 80s
though the weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
Latest HRRR indicated the scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue eastward through mid morning, but have a low probability of
impacting any terminals. GCK could see a vicinity shower after 14
UTC. Shower and thunderstorms activity will become more widespread
this evening and especially overnight into Wednesday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 63 68 60 / 30 100 90 50
GCK 83 63 69 57 / 30 100 90 40
EHA 79 62 72 60 / 40 90 70 40
LBL 80 63 72 61 / 30 100 90 50
HYS 87 63 73 61 / 10 60 70 30
P28 89 65 69 62 / 20 90 90 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
Wednesday afternoon FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MDT TO TOWING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.
WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.
WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.
AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.
WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 30 20 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 40 20 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 30 20 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 40 20 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER TO NEAR 0-5% AND REMOVED LIGHT
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.
.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR 50-60% OF NORMAL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS PAVING THE WAY FOR A COMFORTABLE LATE JULY DAY
WITH CURRENT READINGS AS OF 10AM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH A COUPLE
SPORADIC 90F DEGREE READINGS TOWARDS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. A WEAK
SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS N MS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD COULD HELP INITIATE SOME VERY SHALLOW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATES DECENT CAPPING NEAR
6-8 KFT AND SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE.
THUS, REMOVED LIGHT SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 60 87 66 / 5 2 5 13
MERIDIAN 89 57 87 62 / 5 2 5 10
VICKSBURG 88 59 87 64 / 5 2 5 19
HATTIESBURG 91 64 89 65 / 5 2 2 6
NATCHEZ 87 61 86 66 / 5 2 2 11
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 65 / 5 2 13 32
GREENWOOD 85 56 84 63 / 5 2 8 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/CME/26/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS TO A
NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PCPN IS
IN RESPONSE TO RRQ JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHEAST MT MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THIS UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING...SO FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE LATER
TODAY. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR S/SW NEAR WEAK LOW IN
UTAH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90F...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.
AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
1/B 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
2/T 01/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
1/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
2/T 01/U 02/T 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 0F 950 AM...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY RIDGE TOP SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY THE
12Z NAM DEVELOPS SOME RASH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND ADVECTS THEM INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THE QPF RESPONSE
AND THE CAPE IN THE MODEL LOOK WAY OVER DONE AND WILL DISCOUNT THAT
SOLUTION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY MUTED RESPONSE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HENCE...WILL JUST MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TYPE
POPS MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE GRIDS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND CONSSHORT RUN.
AS OF 530 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER NICE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. REMOVED WHAT LITTLE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EVEN THE LITTLE TN RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS FOG FREE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
REMAIN IN THE 1-3 DEGREE MARK WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. LATEST
SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT INDICATES AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE TN BORDER WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT REGIONS THIS MORNING. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER PLEASANT NEAR TERM FORECAST AHEAD
FOR NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND WESTERN NC. BROAD UPPER EASTERN
CONUS TROF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
LEADING TO NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN MORE
DRYING IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON AMONGST HEATING.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS FAIR WX
CU PREVAILS. LASTLY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN WEAK THEREBY NEGATING MIXING EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE UNDER NORMAL LEVELS.
LIKEWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE
LOW TERRAIN WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS EXPERIENCE
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
THRU THE TROF TAKING THE TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA WED...WITH THE
AXIS REBUILDING TO THE WEST ON THU. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AND REMAINS IN PLACE THU. ALSO ON THU...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ATMOS
GENERALLY CAPPED...THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN NC
MTNS. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW INCREASES THU INTO THU NITE AS MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY AND GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL IN THE DEVELOPING SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET SETS UP OVER THE SERN CONUS. MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WEAKENS ALLOWING WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. ALL
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHC OF SCT SHRA THU INTO THU NITE.
BEST CHC FOR ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW THICKNESSES...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING WEDGE LIKE SFC PATTERN AND POTENTIALLY LIGHT
PRECIP. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM...GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST FRI AND
SAT AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS CHANGES BY THE END AS THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF AXIS
WEST OF THE AREA SUN...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE
ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS ON SUN WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST INTO THE SERN CONUS MONDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THIS KEEPS THE MOIST S TO SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE CHC OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH
THE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE UPPER PATTERN...THE SFC PATTERN IS
SIMILAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING
THE CHC OF PRECIP IN PLACE AS WELL. HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO WX FREE CONDITIONS. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONDENSE BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO FEW/SCT LOW VFR
FAIR WX CU. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BEING POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY WILL YIELD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION/FOG/STRATUS CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 80 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 70 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 80 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 86 69 94 63 79 / 70 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 50 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 50 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 30 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 70 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 60 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 86 69 94 63 79 / 50 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 30 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 30 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 40 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
647 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NOW HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA
TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED SURFACE BASE CAPE TODAY. WITH
THE LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR/ARW/NAM 4KM...INDICATE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS THE LATEST 29.03Z RAP/29.00Z NAM SHOW
0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 29.00Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW SOME CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
THURSDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREATS LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS
TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE SCATTEREDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DUE TO THIS...VICINITY SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE KLSE TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A
BROKEN 5 TO 7K DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP THIS TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.
TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.
AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERN DISCUSSION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY RAINS
IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIKE
THE SOLUTIONS GIVEN BY THE 4KM ARW...4KM NMM AND HRRR WHICH
SUGGEST A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WV CLEARLY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. CONVECTION TENDS TO WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR
STRONGER STORMS ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
DURING THE EVENING...THETAE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW
REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWA...AND MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP AN
MCS OVER NE COLORADO AND SE WYOMING. ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS ALONG
WEAK FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE FRONT OVER SW KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO BACA COUNTY AND OTHER COUNTIES NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. LIKE CURRENT DAY 1 WPC HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
WHICH KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH MODERATE RISK TO THE
NORTH.
ON WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
LAYER UP TO 400MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER AN INCH. LOWER
LAYERS COULD BECOME SATURATED WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES POSSIBLE
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. WHEN SEE SATURATED LOWER LAYERS WITH
1.5KM DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...AM ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING OVER
AND CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CURRENT SIMULATIONS SUGGEST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. --PGW--
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS. PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.
HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED. BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL. EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT. GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.
LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.
FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AT
THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO PUT IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE NORTHERLY AT KCOS TONIGHT AND LIMIT
LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT MAY REACH KCOS BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.
VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.
KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 75 87 75 87 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 68 90 73 90 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 74 89 74 87 / 20 10 10 20
GNV 67 91 70 91 / 10 0 0 20
OCF 69 92 71 91 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 77 91 / 30 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 92 79 92 / 20 60 50 50
MIAMI 79 92 79 91 / 20 60 50 50
NAPLES 80 90 78 87 / 40 60 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
218 PM CDT
FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DAILY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...WITHIN REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SERIES OF RELATIVELY MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE
OF WEAK RIPPLES PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM PROPAGATING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO MODULATE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN JUXTAPOSED ATOP
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL WARMTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WEAK/SKINNY MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CUMULUS CONGESTUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM NEAR ROCKFORD
TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHICAGO/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.
CURRENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GROW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PEAK INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WANING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH ONTARIO SHORT
WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO
DURING PERIOD OF BETTER INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE FORCING WILL DECREASE
LAST...WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THESE DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TIED TO CONVERGENCE ZONES AS IS
THE CASE TODAY...WILL CONTINUE IN SIMILAR FASHION THURSDAY AS
WELL. OBVIOUSLY...NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AND THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS EVEN IN PLACES THAT DO. BY FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH MAY SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH A GREATER AERIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYTIME
PERIODS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH RETURNS THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 70S BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TO SLOWLY WARMING FROM UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL ALLOW SUBTLE
COOL-DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT MDW LATER THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING
ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH INLAND A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KGYY AND POSSIBLY KMDW LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...I HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TO
MDW GIVEN THE 12-15 KT OF 925 MB WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IT
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. FOR NOW...I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OF THIS LAKE BREEZE AND MAKE A DECISION LATER OF WHETHER OR
NOT TO REMOVE THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE MDW TAF.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE
AFTER 21 UTC THROUGH AROUND 02 UTC THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE EXPECTED...I HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS CHANCE
WITH A VCSH.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENECE WILL LAKE BREEZE GETTING TO MDW BY 21 UTC. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING ORD THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Northwesterly winds of around 10kt this afternoon will diminish to
less than 5kt this evening as high pressure builds into the area.
Light W/NW winds will resume on Wednesday. Aside from SCT diurnal
clouds, skies will remain mostly clear through 18z Wed.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
212 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLOWLY MODERATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN IT APPEARS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK...FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
TO EASE OVER THE LAKE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL END AT
4AM CDT AS PLANNED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER JAMES BAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP AS MIXING GETS GOING BUT
A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES...BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. CANNOT
RULE OUT COOLING INTO THE 60S DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER LAKE MI
TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF FORCING TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE
BREEZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A MCHENRY TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALSO THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING
DEWPOINTS A BIT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVER FORECASTED CAPE VALUES.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
DOWNTOWN WILL HAVE A LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.
JEE
WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL KEEP THIS
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOR A
HANDFUL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY NOT
AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND THAT LOOKS TO BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THIS...FORECAST
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGE FROM 1016MB TO 1019MB FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. NO CHANGE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES.
THERE IS ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE
EC...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT COULD BRING HIGHER REGIONAL
COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI AND POSSIBLY ON SAT
DEPENDING ON FEATURE TIMING. ITS A PRETTY SUBTLE FEATURE TO KEY IN
ON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS HAVE UNDERCUT
MODEL BLEND POPS WHICH ARE BIASED BY WHAT SEEMS TO BE A TOO WET
GFS. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT MDW LATER THIS AFTN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE OR E BEHIND IT. BREEZE SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING ORD.
* ISOL TO SCT SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
* LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH INLAND A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KGYY AND POSSIBLY KMDW LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...I HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TO
MDW GIVEN THE 12-15 KT OF 925 MB WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IT
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. FOR NOW...I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OF THIS LAKE BREEZE AND MAKE A DECISION LATER OF WHETHER OR
NOT TO REMOVE THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE MDW TAF.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE
AFTER 21 UTC THROUGH AROUND 02 UTC THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE EXPECTED...I HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS CHANCE
WITH A VCSH.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OUT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 925 MB...THE
BOUNDARY COULD THREATEN THE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW THIS FAR
OUT...SO I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA IN MAINLY THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINS
PARKED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LAKE AT TIMES...WITH
THE FIRST EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN LAKE
AND WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. KMD
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS continues to be the
dominant weather-maker across central Illinois today. Northerly
flow is providing unseasonably cool temperatures, with afternoon
highs once again expected to remain in the 70s. Main question will
be whether or not any showers will develop within the cyclonic
flow pattern aloft. Not really seeing much of anything on the
latest water vapor imagery, so am skeptical any showers will form
today. Will however hold on to just slight chance PoPs northeast
of I-74 as HRRR/NAM12 both develop a few showers across northeast
Illinois late this afternoon. No zone updated needed at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Northwesterly winds of around 10kt this afternoon will diminish to
less than 5kt this evening as high pressure builds into the area.
Light W/NW winds will resume on Wednesday. Aside from SCT diurnal
clouds, skies will remain mostly clear through 18z Wed.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers. Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
2030Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RADAR
TRENDS. ADDED IN VCSH TO KIND AND KBMG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
TIMED IN A THUNDERSTORM FOR KLAF FROM 21-23Z BASED A RADAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
REGION FINALLY LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA SATURDAY...WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
BUT OP GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POPS IF MODELS TREND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE EXTENDED.
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY AUGUST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
INDIANA WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP AIR FROM CANADA FLOWING INTO STATE...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDE KEEPING US COOL...THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAJOR QUESTION IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE IS DECEPTIVE IN THE SENSE IT
LAGS THE CLOUD BAND OVER INDIANA IN THE VISIBLE PICTURES.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE INBOUND AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKEST. THE QPF FIELDS FROM
THE LATEST RUC ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.
THE NAM POPS SEEM CORRUPTED UNLESS ONE IS WILLING TO BELIEVE 66
PERCENT AT MUNCIE WITH 30 PERCENT AT FORT WAYNE MAKES SENSE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING
ABOUT THE SHORT WAVE AND RUC QPF.
ADDING 10 PERCENT TO THE MAV POPS DOES PRODUCE A SOLUTION THAT FITS
WELL WITH HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING. THAT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR A CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WITH THE SOUTH REMAINING DRY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD PATCHES CONTINUE TO
MOVE BY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATES ARE CLOSE. THEY LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING
WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AND THAT THE SITUATION IS NOT CHANGING
MUCH. WHERE THEY DIFFER A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE ISSUE COMES DOWN TO WHICH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE
SITUATION BEST...IF ANY IS.
THE MET POPS SEEM TOO WET...SOMETIMES MUCH TOO WET...IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SYSTEM THAT WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF FORCING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAV POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES. GIVEN SMALL TROUGHS
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE PASSING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY IN A DRIER FLOW NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LAKES.
IN AND OUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROUGHS
PASSING AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE. ALL SUPPORT SLOW WARMING AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS WELL. TO THE EXTENT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF THAT WILL BE USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.
CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.
AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED
THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR
THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.
WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.
WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.
AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.
WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAD INCREASED POPS SOME
THIS MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS OCCURRING. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH ONE INCH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 76 56 78 / 40 20 10 30
INL 50 78 52 78 / 30 10 10 30
BRD 56 79 57 81 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 52 77 53 79 / 40 20 10 40
ASX 50 75 53 76 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 57 76 56 / 50 40 20 10
INL 77 50 78 52 / 30 30 10 10
BRD 78 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 75 52 77 53 / 50 40 20 10
ASX 73 50 75 53 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1052 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR MILES CITY AND COLSTRIP GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTH TODAY...ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
PLUME IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN NOW AND MID AFTN...A SHORT WINDOW HERE...BUT
OTHERWISE WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS PASSES. HAVE MADE A FEW MORE POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.
AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
1/B 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
2/T 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
1/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
2/T 11/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
1/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
2/T 21/U 02/T 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM 1ST PERIOD POPS A BIT...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODERATE
RAIN AND FLOODING IS ONGOING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
POPPING IS AN INDICATION OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE (KABQ SURFACE DEWPOINT HIT 63 EARLIER THIS
MORNING). ALSO TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES WEST AND
DOWN 2-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.
TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. CU DEVEOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NO SBCAPE ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESO ANAL PAGE.
HENCE...STILL THINK THAT CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD DESPITE THE QPF RESPONSE IN
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.
AS 0F 950 AM...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY RIDGE TOP SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY THE
12Z NAM DEVELOPS SOME SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND ADVECTS THEM INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THE QPF RESPONSE
AND THE CAPE IN THE MODEL LOOK WAY OVER DONE AND WILL DISCOUNT THAT
SOLUTION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY MUTED RESPONSE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HENCE...WILL JUST MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TYPE
POPS MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE GRIDS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND CONSSHORT RUN.
AS OF 530 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER NICE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. REMOVED WHAT LITTLE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EVEN THE LITTLE TN RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS FOG FREE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
REMAIN IN THE 1-3 DEGREE MARK WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. LATEST
SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT INDICATES AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE TN BORDER WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT REGIONS THIS MORNING. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER PLEASANT NEAR TERM FORECAST AHEAD
FOR NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND WESTERN NC. BROAD UPPER EASTERN
CONUS TROF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
LEADING TO NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN MORE
DRYING IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON AMONGST HEATING.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS FAIR WX
CU PREVAILS. LASTLY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN WEAK THEREBY NEGATING MIXING EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH
HIGHS NEARLY A DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE UNDER NORMAL LEVELS.
LIKEWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE
LOW TERRAIN WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS EXPERIENCE
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
THRU THE TROF TAKING THE TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA WED...WITH THE
AXIS REBUILDING TO THE WEST ON THU. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AND REMAINS IN PLACE THU. ALSO ON THU...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ATMOS
GENERALLY CAPPED...THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN NC
MTNS. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW INCREASES THU INTO THU NITE AS MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY AND GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL IN THE DEVELOPING SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET SETS UP OVER THE SERN CONUS. MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WEAKENS ALLOWING WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. ALL
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHC OF SCT SHRA THU INTO THU NITE.
BEST CHC FOR ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW THICKNESSES...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING WEDGE LIKE SFC PATTERN AND POTENTIALLY LIGHT
PRECIP. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM...GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST FRI AND
SAT AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS CHANGES BY THE END AS THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF AXIS
WEST OF THE AREA SUN...THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE
ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS ON SUN WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST INTO THE SERN CONUS MONDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THIS KEEPS THE MOIST S TO SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE CHC OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH
THE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE UPPER PATTERN...THE SFC PATTERN IS
SIMILAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING
THE CHC OF PRECIP IN PLACE AS WELL. HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO WX FREE CONDITIONS. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONDENSE BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO FEW/SCT LOW VFR
FAIR WX CU. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BEING POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY WILL YIELD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION/FOG/STRATUS CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
RAIN ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BUT MAY YET STICK AROUND ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BEHIND DRIVEN
EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL THUS
ADDRESS THAT SCENARIO WITH THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AT KLBB TO TAPER OFF AND NOT REALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES
EARLY THIS AFTN WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS NEAR THE NM LINE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WEST TO ERN NM WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF KLBB. KCDS WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING A TS TOWARD 06Z AND WILL KEEP PROB30
MENTION THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 81 63 82 60 78 / 80 40 30 30 20
TULIA 81 66 84 61 76 / 70 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 81 67 88 61 77 / 70 30 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 87 68 93 61 80 / 80 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 85 69 93 62 79 / 80 30 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 91 67 95 61 83 / 50 20 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD 89 69 95 62 81 / 50 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 85 67 87 66 81 / 50 40 30 30 20
SPUR 87 70 95 65 80 / 40 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 98 68 83 / 30 20 30 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.
REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.
MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN
LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NEAR OR WEST OF KLWB WITH DONE ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA.
OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM WINDS...AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AT OR AROUND SUNSET. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED AS COMPARED TO
REALITY FROM THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLWB.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL START CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...AND THEN RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL COME BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM THAT
FORMS...BUT ALSO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE COOL AIRMASSES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EXPECTED REGION OF THE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG A NARROW LINE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WV.
GIVEN THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...PARTS
OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT. HRRR AND
LOCAL RNK WRK-ARW MODELS ARE OFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. OTHER ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
PROGGED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. OUR ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS. HAVE ADDED A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY FLOYD AND MARTINSVILLE VA.
REPORTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE EARLIER FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. MOST ADJUSTMENTS WERE
ACROSS THE SSOUTHERNAND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
CURRENT PROJECTION OF ARRIVAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK BASED UPON THE LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER TO REFLECT A GREATER ABUNDANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHER THAN THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER NOTABLE
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES FROM TIME TO TIME...PERHAPS PASSING AS
FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL
IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
COUNTIES...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A TRACE FURTHER EAST.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING JUST STRONG ENOUGH MOST
PLACES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION TO ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL...EARLY
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT CALMER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE CHILL THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCE. STILL...IF OUTDOORS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...YOU MAY
CONSIDER KEEPING A LIGHT JACKET HANDY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE WARMER...CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOWS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR DANVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES RELAXES SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC NOSING
EAST...WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PLACING OUR AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROF.
MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RING OUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED AND INSERTED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY ON
WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 80-85 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CENTER OF A SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
VA BY 12Z (8 AM THURSDAY)...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD SLOW FALL IN
TEMPS. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE...WHICH KEEPS ALL CLIMATE SITES AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SURGES NORTH OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY. INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. WEAK
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. INCREASED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO PUSHED UP WITH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT KLWB AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z...LEAVING VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AND
KROA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING 3KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 5KFT FURTHER EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81
JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:
ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/PH/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.
THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.
WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.UPDATE...
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAK CAP
APPARENT ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHERN WI. THIS CAP WILL ERODE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY 2 PM. THEN EXPECT PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P.
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI TODAY. THE PEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT MID EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL
BRING MOSTLY MID CLOUDS AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO SRN WI. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS THIS AFTN AND EVE WHEN STRONGEST SHORT
WAVE AND SFC TROUGH SAG THROUGH SRN WI. ISOLD -SHRA ACCOMPANYING
VERY WEAK FORCING ATTM OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z.
WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW POISED TO AFFECT SRN WI ALL DAY SO NOT IMPOSSIBLE STRAY
-SHRA COULD POP UP MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO MAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS PM. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN WI TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE SOME -
SHRA LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MRNG IN THE
EAST.
MUCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO REACH THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTN WITH
SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WEAK SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPS MAY RESULT IN SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED WITH A FEW
VORTICITY MAXIMA HELPING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TIME TO
TIME AS WELL. COOLEST 925 TEMPS ARE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS
CELSIUS WITH A PUSH TOWARDS 20 CELSIUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAKES A SHIFT EAST THOUGH STILL
NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME POPS AS LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ESPECIALLY INTO ERN WI. THE GEM IS SLOWEST ON THE DEPARTURE OF
ANY LINGERING VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE GEM AND GFS TRANSITION TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A FAIRLY BENIGN THOUGH SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PROGGD FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STICK WITH THE DRY FORECAST. 925 TEMPS WARMER STILL REACHING
THE LOW 20S CELSIUS. SO LOOKING AT SOME LOWER 80S COMING BACK.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI FROM THE
NORTH...MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA
TIED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA IN EITHER SCENARIO SO WILL RETAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLD TO
SCT CONVECTION WL THREATEN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAKES DIRECT HIT AT AIRPORT. SMALL HAIL A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NOW HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSED OFF OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA
TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED SURFACE BASE CAPE TODAY. WITH
THE LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR/ARW/NAM 4KM...INDICATE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS THE LATEST 29.03Z RAP/29.00Z NAM SHOW
0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 29.00Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW SOME CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
THURSDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ALONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREATS LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PER
LATEST 29.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS
TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
29.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING SOUTHEAST THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE SCT COVERAGE...CONTINUED WITH A VCSH AT KLSE IN THE
20-01Z TIME-FRAME. THE -SHRA OR ANY -TSRA COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF/
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN THE RAIN CORES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS IN THE 4K-6K FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 4-8KT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED TONIGHT AND
ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR IN THE VALLEYS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS