Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/28/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. && .DISCUSSION...NOT A CLEAR CUT DAY. 12Z SOUNDING HAS DECENT MOISTURE AT 1.37 INCHES. RIGHT AT THE MOMENT WE CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONTINUED RECYCLE OF SURGE MOISTURE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL REINFORCEMENT. MID LEVELS HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DRYING TRENDS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 1 INCH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS PER BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GOES WATER VAPOR TRENDS. FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE INCLUDING -7 AT H5 AND WITH THE MORNING SOUNDING WE CAN STILL MANAGE DECENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN ANTICIPATED FLUCTUATION OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS MIGHT ADD A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN MID LEVELS. OVERALL WE MIGHT BE HEADING TOWARD A LESS BUSY DAY AND A QUICK LOOK AT EARLY SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING 12Z U OF A WRF-NAM AND LATEST HRRR ALL POINTING TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING. WE ARE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWN A BIT TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND VALLEY AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST BUT NOT AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. THE TIMING ON THE EASTERLY IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHERN SONORA/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS SLOWED A BIT AND COULD NOW BE MORE OF A FACTOR ENHANCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/16Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED -TSRA/ -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF KTUS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AT 8-15K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERALLY ELY FLOW REGIME WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. SUN... 26/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH SE AZ FROM THE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE DEPICTED SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE SUN NIGHT. MON-FRI... EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO PREVAIL... WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY BE EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPS THRU NEXT FRI FROM TUCSON WWD WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY. MEANWHILE...DAYTIME TEMPS EAST OF TUCSON WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER/BROST/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE. DEW POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD. 00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES). HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING. THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS. OVERALL...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. BUT GIVEN THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THAT WATCH. THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING WFO/S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVR THE SERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 ...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK... WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP. THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S. ROSE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093- 094-097-099. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...ROSE AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1034 PM EDT...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS ENTERED A WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS FOCUSED THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY-PA BORDER. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/EXTREME WRN NY/OH CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THOSE AREA. THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SFC INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AT KBUF AND KPIT...WITH A POOL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 00Z BUF RAOB HAS AN H850-500 LAPSE RATE OF 7.2C/KM WITH A SBCAPE OF 1146 J/KG. KALB STILL HAS A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1343 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 40 KTS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE H850-500 LAYER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS INITIALLY...BUT THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC WAVE...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SEE THE INSTABILITY WANE A BIT... WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE. AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. A PLUME OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER DAY BREAK. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE 3-KM HRRR IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON THE BASE REF PRODUCT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND THEN 3 AM TO 6 AM TO THE NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE POPS ARE TRENDED THIS WAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU. THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE. THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z- 10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... *** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING *** 845 PM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... *** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON *** IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6 KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL. MON NIGHT... BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S! THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY! - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK */ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE... INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL- BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS. THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES. WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW. */ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS... TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. THURSDAY... MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/. SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE 27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO THE NE. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 7 PM UPDATE... ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ================================================================ MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON NIGHT. THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR 4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL. ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR BY 4 PM. TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH. FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS. && .EQUIPMENT... OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WATCHING AREA OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES SOLNS...DOES NOT EVEN CAPTURE THIS...BUT THE FEW THAT DO...THE RUC AND HRRR WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE PA/NJ BORDER. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT SCHC/LOW CHC POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WESTERN ZONES IN AN HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 00Z NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR WX HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT. PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH BETTER CHANCE WEST OF NYC TERMINALS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR TSTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER TONIGHT. SUB VFR POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES. .TUE-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24 NEAR TERM...24 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...PW MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
717 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WATCHING AREA OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES SOLNS...DOES NOT EVEN CAPTURE THIS...BUT THE FEW THAT DO...THE RUC AND HRRR WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE PA/NJ BORDER. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT SCHC/LOW CHC POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WESTERN ZONES IN AN HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR WX HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT. PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR TSTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER TONIGHT. SUB VFR POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES. .TUE-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24 NEAR TERM...24 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...PW MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WATCHING AREA OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES SOLNS...DOES NOT EVEN CAPTURE THIS...BUT THE FEW THAT DO...THE RUC AND HRRR WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE PA/NJ BORDER. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT SCHC/LOW CHC POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WESTERN ZONES IN AN HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR WX HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT. PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR TSTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED... .TONIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .TUE-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS. SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/ UPDATE... OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. 85/AG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI- DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)... DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO - 6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)... A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS. ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR HAZIER THAN NORMAL. MARINE... TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 78 91 / 20 20 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 80 92 / 10 20 10 30 MIAMI 80 91 79 93 / 10 20 10 30 NAPLES 77 90 77 92 / 20 20 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMICS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN. 01 CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 07-29 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911 1981 KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977 1926 1986 1896 KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994 KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897 1952 RECORDS FOR 07-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925 1915 KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936 1980 KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957 1986 KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920 2008 1958 RECORDS FOR 07-31 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936 KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936 1986 1896 1980 KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997 1981 2010 KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936 && AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH 08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY 18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0 ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 30 30 10 0 BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 10 10 CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0 COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 20 60 20 0 GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0 MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 20 0 ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0 PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 40 10 0 VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMICS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN. 01 && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 07-29 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911 1981 KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977 1926 1986 1896 KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994 KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897 1952 RECORDS FOR 07-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925 1915 KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936 1980 KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957 1986 KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920 2008 1958 RECORDS FOR 07-31 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936 KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936 1986 1896 1980 KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997 1981 2010 KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH 08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY 18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0 ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 20 30 10 0 BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 5 10 CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0 COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 10 60 20 0 GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0 MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 40 0 ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 20 5 0 PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 30 10 0 VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... IT WAS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY WITH COLUMBIA METRO REACHING 100 DEGREES AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PREVENTED ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ARE ONGOING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND ADD SOME POPS TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A FORECAST 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR COLUMBIA ON JULY 28 IS 78 COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING...THAT IS IF THE TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT FALL BELOW 78 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR EXPECTED. SOME STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20Z MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED. && .CLIMATE... WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936. AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS 82...ALSO SET IN 1936. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC AVIATION...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR DO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THAT REGION...ALONG WITH THE WEAK/STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE PROGGING AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANY MCS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...DO THINK THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. LEANED HARD ON WPC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO N GA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GA BY 06Z-12Z MON AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE FL BORDER BY 12Z TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3 TO -7. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY 12Z MON. SPC AS GA ON DAY 3 IN JUST A SEE TEXT AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUE/WED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. 01 && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 07-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925 1915 KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936 1980 KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957 1986 KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920 2008 1958 RECORDS FOR 07-31 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936 KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936 1986 1896 1980 KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997 1981 2010 KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... RELATIVELY QUIET TAF PERIOD ON TAP WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT ATL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTS DURING THE DAY THAT WILL RELAX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH THE SAME AT OTHER TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT AHN AND CSG OVERNIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. WILLIS/NLISTEMAA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 74 95 76 91 / 5 10 20 20 ATLANTA 74 93 76 87 / 5 10 20 20 BLAIRSVILLE 67 88 68 80 / 0 20 40 20 CARTERSVILLE 71 93 74 87 / 5 10 30 20 COLUMBUS 76 95 76 92 / 10 10 10 50 GAINESVILLE 73 93 74 87 / 5 10 30 20 MACON 74 95 77 93 / 10 10 10 50 ROME 71 94 74 87 / 0 20 40 20 PEACHTREE CITY 72 93 75 89 / 5 10 20 30 VIDALIA 77 95 78 94 / 10 20 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...WILLIS/NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLIER AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. CURRENT MESOANALYIS INDICATES A DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NORTH TO 1.8 SOUTH. WEAK NVA PROJECTED FOR OUR FA TODAY AS WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A GENERALLY DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR FA. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE LATEST HRRR MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FA. A FEW BRIEF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE FA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS GENERALLY PUTS THE REGION UNDER A FLAT RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOWER MID-WEST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...MAINLY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS. GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MAIN FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN SO...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME QUITE PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLIER FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED. VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAKENING FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SUN. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
227 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1150 AM...LATE MORNING UPDATE...TWO FEATURES OF NOTE LATE THIS MORNING...A WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS A VERY UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A LINE OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS LINE EXTENDS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80... COULD BE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING THE WARMING TREND. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVELS...A FEW HOURS OF SUN...IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR...COULD PUSH TEMPS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S...SO NO LARGE CHANGES TO HIGHS BUT TEMP TRENDS WILL REQUIRE UPDATES. CMS //PREV DISCUSSION... 322 AM CDT SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND TONIGHT... SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FESTER SOUTH OF I-88 BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE OVER THE SW U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE OVER WI SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS SLOWLY TREKKING EAST AND WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER LAKE MI SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND IT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS. WHILE THE NAMS 4000+ J/KG OF CAPE SEEMED A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-88. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER...NAMELY WINDS AND HAIL...IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. SPC MENTIONS A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN THE SAME AREA...BUT THINKING TORNADOES WILL NOT BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTIVE MODE. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AT FIRST IN THIS AREA...MAYBE EVEN SUPERCELLS...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE A LINE OR STORM COMPLEX SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. FINALLY...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS EXPECTING THICK OVERCAST SKIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS ALONE...HOWEVER...STILL THINKING WE WILL EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY. IF CLOUDS THIN...WE COULD SEE SPOTS REACH 90 DEGREES. SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER LAKE MI SUNDAY AND WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE PLAINS LOW ALSO WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH THE CANADIAN LOW...AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER WI. BANDS OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. HIGH TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WILL FEEL TEMPS FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. IN GENERAL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND 80 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THINKING STORMS WILL BE VERY DIURNAL. ALSO NOT EXPECTING A TON OF ACTIVITY...AS THE FORCING SOURCE WILL BE WEAK VORTICITY STREAMERS THAT TRAVEL AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CHANCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA INTO CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. * LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE SFC WINDS INTO TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON. * POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. * LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... COMPLICATED AND RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM FAR NORTHEAST IL TO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...THOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WERE AT THE TOP/ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE MIXED LAYER. LAKE BREEZE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY... THOUGH TDWR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT HAS SLOWED ITS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND MOST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR INLAND INTO ORD/MDW. MVFR CIGS HAD DEVELOPED LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH SOME SCATTERING AND LIFTING OF THIS LOWEST LAYER OCCURRING PER SATELLITE/SFC OBS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT DRYING AND MIXING ABOVE BASE OF STRONG INVERSION NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS WILL NOT PERSIST. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION WOULD PROVIDE STRONG CAPPING FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS...THOUGH STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IF TAPPED. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM RECENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVOLVING EAST FROM CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX SEEN OVER NORTHERN MO. MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. STRONGER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SHRA/TSRA AROUND 12Z WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH POOR DIURNAL TIMING SUGGESTS LOW COVERAGE AT THAT HOUR AND PRECLUDES MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND STRONGER FRONT DOES DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING FAIRLY GUSTY NEAR 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTING ORD/MDW THROUGH PERIOD. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND LOW CIGS TONIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... 12Z... SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVE. MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. MTF && .MARINE... 230 PM CDT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE TO ARND 30 KT FOLLOWING THE LOW PASSAGE AND FROPA AND DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION...THE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS AND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE INDIANA WATERS AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH WAVES IN THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS REACHING AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER WAVES. A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE ILLINOIS WATERS WILL KEEP WAVES A BIT LOWER...BUT SHOULD EXCEED 4-5 FT BY THE END OF THE 5NM NEARSHORE FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE OVER THE LAKE. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BRING BACK LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW WAVES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...NOON SUNDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY. IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...NOON SUNDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON SUNDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...NOON SUNDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep trof settles in north of the Great Lakes. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday. Smith && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have 22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO. Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this. Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
120 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1150 AM...LATE MORNING UPDATE...TWO FEATURES OF NOTE LATE THIS MORNING...A WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS A VERY UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A LINE OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS LINE EXTENDS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80... COULD BE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING THE WARMING TREND. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVELS...A FEW HOURS OF SUN...IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR...COULD PUSH TEMPS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S...SO NO LARGE CHANGES TO HIGHS BUT TEMP TRENDS WILL REQUIRE UPDATES. CMS //PREV DISCUSSION... 322 AM CDT SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND TONIGHT... SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FESTER SOUTH OF I-88 BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE OVER THE SW U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE OVER WI SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS SLOWLY TREKKING EAST AND WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER LAKE MI SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND IT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS. WHILE THE NAMS 4000+ J/KG OF CAPE SEEMED A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-88. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER...NAMELY WINDS AND HAIL...IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. SPC MENTIONS A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN THE SAME AREA...BUT THINKING TORNADOES WILL NOT BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTIVE MODE. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AT FIRST IN THIS AREA...MAYBE EVEN SUPERCELLS...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE A LINE OR STORM COMPLEX SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. FINALLY...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS EXPECTING THICK OVERCAST SKIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS ALONE...HOWEVER...STILL THINKING WE WILL EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY. IF CLOUDS THIN...WE COULD SEE SPOTS REACH 90 DEGREES. SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER LAKE MI SUNDAY AND WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE PLAINS LOW ALSO WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH THE CANADIAN LOW...AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER WI. BANDS OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. HIGH TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WILL FEEL TEMPS FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. IN GENERAL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND 80 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THINKING STORMS WILL BE VERY DIURNAL. ALSO NOT EXPECTING A TON OF ACTIVITY...AS THE FORCING SOURCE WILL BE WEAK VORTICITY STREAMERS THAT TRAVEL AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CHANCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA INTO CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. * LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE SFC WINDS INTO TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON. * POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. * LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... COMPLICATED AND RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM FAR NORTHEAST IL TO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING RELATIVELY LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...THOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WERE AT THE TOP/ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE MIXED LAYER. LAKE BREEZE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY... THOUGH TDWR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT HAS SLOWED ITS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND MOST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR INLAND INTO ORD/MDW. MVFR CIGS HAD DEVELOPED LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH SOME SCATTERING AND LIFTING OF THIS LOWEST LAYER OCCURRING PER SATELLITE/SFC OBS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT DRYING AND MIXING ABOVE BASE OF STRONG INVERSION NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS WILL NOT PERSIST. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION WOULD PROVIDE STRONG CAPPING FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS...THOUGH STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IF TAPPED. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM RECENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVOLVING EAST FROM CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX SEEN OVER NORTHERN MO. MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. STRONGER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SHRA/TSRA AROUND 12Z WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH POOR DIURNAL TIMING SUGGESTS LOW COVERAGE AT THAT HOUR AND PRECLUDES MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND STRONGER FRONT DOES DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING FAIRLY GUSTY NEAR 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTING ORD/MDW THROUGH PERIOD. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND LOW CIGS TONIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... 12Z... SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVE. MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. MTF && .MARINE... 217 AM CDT AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SUMMERTIME IS UPCOMING OVER THE LAKE BUT FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WINDS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH IN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP FOR TEMPORARY AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION ENVELOPING THE LAKE BY LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN UNSTABLE THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE WATER WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TO GALE STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WHERE THEY WERE WITH THE LAST COOL ADVECTION EPISODE EARLIER THIS WEEK /WEDNESDAY/...BOTH OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND NEARSHORE AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY BUT CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN MIDWEEK. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Update the forecast to include the mention of severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon sw counties and across area this evening. SPC has moderate risk of severe storms late this afternoon and evening across central IL except slight risk over Stark, Marshall and northern Knox counties. Has 5% risk of tornadoes, 30% risk of large hail (10% risk of 2 inch or larger hail) and 45% risk of damaging wind gusts. Also trended pops lower through early afternoon and higher late this afternoon and evening. Most of central IL has been dry so far this morning. Low clouds have spread into nw counties by late morning and this may limit heating and instability. Kept highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon heat indices peaking from 95 to 103F, lowest north of Peoria where more low clouds found. A frontal boundary over NW IL and near the IA/MO border will press se into central IL later this afternoon and tonight and collide with an increasingly unstable airmass with CAPES projects to surpass 3000 j/kg and bulk shear rising to 40-50 kts by 00Z/7 pm. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have 22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO. Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this. Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am. 07 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper 60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system. SHORT TERM...Today and tonight... Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg CAPE as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and climbing temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts northward. Warm front expected to be northeast and east by midday as the cold front and actual low center makes its way into the region. As similar situations have set up over the fa recently, trouble will be fighting the cap in place for much of the day... and the approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only the front itself but models have persisted with a couple waves moving into the region. Major issues with this are beginning to show their hand this morning as the locations of the waves this morning on sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations as many of the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for storms, and the triggers are there, but timing and exact locations of impact are troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the early evening with the proximity of the cold front and the low itself...but cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its location should it not progress further north, storms crossing the boundary could also be impacted by the turning of the winds for the front. Once the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are indicative of rapid development of storms. Once going, the very high CAPE values remain in place well into the evening up to 06z. Best directional shear is actually in place for the late afternoon/early evening lending itself to supercells in the beginning of the event...transitioning to more of a wind event with time. Large hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells and long sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than 15k ft. Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof both outflows and frontal boundaries. LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday... Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region. Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet again. HJS && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE. SLOWLY INTRODUCED LOW 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND STOUT (IA/NRN MO/WS IL) EML. THIS EML APPEARS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON 12Z DVN/ILX/OMX RAOBS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 100F. THIS MAY DELAY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROGGED TO POSSIBLY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER 1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN. THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME 1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HIGH END MVFR/LOW VFR STRATO CU CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE VICINITY. WARM PROFILE ALOFT LIKELY TO KEEP THE TERMINALS CONVECTION FREE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION INVOF REMNANT MCV AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FIRE ACROSS MO INTO WC IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO IN/OH LATER TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE/OB TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE WORST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...STEINWEDEL SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...STEINWEDEL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1123 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE. SLOWLY INTRODUCED LOW 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND STOUT (IA/NRN MO/WS IL) EML. THIS EML APPEARS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON 12Z DVN/ILX/OMX RAOBS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 100F. THIS MAY DELAY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROGGED TO POSSIBLY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER 1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN. THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME 1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AS UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEERS SUSPECT NERN IL INTO WCNTL IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR JUST AFTER DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO TSRA TIMING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...STEINWEDEL SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S TODAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE. SLOWLY INTRODUCED LOW 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND STOUT (IA/NRN MO/WS IL) EML. THIS EML APPEARS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON 12Z DVN/ILX/OMX RAOBS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 100F. THIS MAY DELAY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROGGED TO POSSIBLY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER 1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN. THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME 1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AS UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEERS SUSPECT NERN IL INTO WCNTL IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR JUST AFTER DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO TSRA TIMING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...STEINWEDEL SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S TODAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER 1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN. THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME 1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AS UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEERS SUSPECT NERN IL INTO WCNTL IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR JUST AFTER DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO TSRA TIMING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
453 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER 1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN. THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME 1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HAVE REMOVED VCSH AT KSBN IN LIGHT OF LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH GRADUAL VEERING OF 925-8H JETLET OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME ISOLD SHRA STILL POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD ARC OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CONVERGENCE FROM IA/CNTL IL/SWRN IN...VEERING OF JETLET TOWARD LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND NWRLY COMPONENT STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS GREATEST PROBABILITY TO REMAIN WELL W/SW/S OF NRN INDIANA RESPECTIVE WITH TIME THROUGH DAYBREAK. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR JUST AFTER DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS RAISES QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT IS OCCURRING SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 RADAR SHOWS RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME BUT NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. SATELLITE INDICATES PLENTY OF ACCAS AND RAP TRENDS INDICATES THE FORCING WEAKENING OVER TIME. ADD TO THAT THE MORNING SOUNDING BEING QUITE DRY ABOVE 800MB BRINGS DOUBTS ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES...THE MORNING PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IA WERE HEADED EAST INTO THE CWA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS PLANNED. WE WILL BE DOING AN 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH FOR THE SEVERE RISK. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA ON THE NOSE OF A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WHICH IS PREVENTING A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN MO. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT AND COVERED MUCH OF OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR SW CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES. TODAY...ANY SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE 6 AM SO WE WILL HAVE A DRY MORNING. LAMP DATA SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCATTERED. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 OR SO TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CLOSE TO 80 WHILE IN OUR FAR SOUTH READINGS SHOULD PUSH TO AROUND 90. WITH DEWPOINTS IN OUR SOUTH RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS CLOUD COVER (OR LACK OF) WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE READINGS JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...WHERE READINGS WERE NOT AS WARM AS I EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER...SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK IN OUR 4 SE COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE. THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER AND GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS AND CAPES BUT NONETHELESS SBCAPES SHOULD EASILY REACH 4000 J/KG IN OUR SOUTH. HOW FAR NORTH THE SEVERE THREAT IS REALIZED WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS INTENSIFY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50+ KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SUPERCELLS INITIALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTH AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING AS IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WITH HIGH PWAT`S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. SOME OF THE RIVERS ALSO SHOWED A RAPID RESPONSE TO THIS HEAVY RAIN BUT ARE STILL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH CWA EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. PCPN CHANCES THUS DIMINISHING WITH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ONSET OF SUBSEQUENT COOL...DRY ADVECTION... BUT STILL HELD ON TO SMALL PCPN CHANCES FAR NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SAGGING SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OVER WI. MON-FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AREA LOCKED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND ALSO DRIER WITH LIMITED MEASURABLE RAIN PROSPECTS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PM SHOWERS MAINLY LATE WEEK AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO UNDERGO GRADUAL MODIFICATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03Z/27. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH TSRA MOST NUMEROUS IN THE 21Z/26 TO 02Z/27 TIME FRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA. AFT 03Z/27 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA. THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO 3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN IA/MO. HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP... A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH. && .AVIATION...26/18Z ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE 12Z TAF. IN THE SHORT TERM...TSRA OVER NW IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KFOD AND KMCW FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOUNDARY LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREAT. DROPPED TS FROM KDSM TAFS AS IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF METRO AREA. LEFT TSRA IN KOTM TAFS...BUT STORMS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KOTM AS WELL. WILL...OF COURSE...BE MONITORING AND UPDATING THROUGHOUT DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...SMALL AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
841 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 RADAR SHOWS RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME BUT NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. SATELLITE INDICATES PLENTY OF ACCAS AND RAP TRENDS INDICATES THE FORCING WEAKENING OVER TIME. ADD TO THAT THE MORNING SOUNDING BEING QUITE DRY ABOVE 800MB BRINGS DOUBTS ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES...THE MORNING PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IA WERE HEADED EAST INTO THE CWA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS PLANNED. WE WILL BE DOING AN 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH FOR THE SEVERE RISK. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA ON THE NOSE OF A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WHICH IS PREVENTING A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN MO. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT AND COVERED MUCH OF OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR SW CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES. TODAY...ANY SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE 6 AM SO WE WILL HAVE A DRY MORNING. LAMP DATA SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCATTERED. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 OR SO TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CLOSE TO 80 WHILE IN OUR FAR SOUTH READINGS SHOULD PUSH TO AROUND 90. WITH DEWPOINTS IN OUR SOUTH RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS CLOUD COVER (OR LACK OF) WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE READINGS JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...WHERE READINGS WERE NOT AS WARM AS I EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER...SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK IN OUR 4 SE COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE. THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER AND GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS AND CAPES BUT NONETHELESS SBCAPES SHOULD EASILY REACH 4000 J/KG IN OUR SOUTH. HOW FAR NORTH THE SEVERE THREAT IS REALIZED WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS INTENSIFY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50+ KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SUPERCELLS INITIALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTH AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING AS IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WITH HIGH PWAT`S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. SOME OF THE RIVERS ALSO SHOWED A RAPID RESPONSE TO THIS HEAVY RAIN BUT ARE STILL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH CWA EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. PCPN CHANCES THUS DIMINISHING WITH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ONSET OF SUBSEQUENT COOL...DRY ADVECTION... BUT STILL HELD ON TO SMALL PCPN CHANCES FAR NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SAGGING SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OVER WI. MON-FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AREA LOCKED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND ALSO DRIER WITH LIMITED MEASURABLE RAIN PROSPECTS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PM SHOWERS MAINLY LATE WEEK AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO UNDERGO GRADUAL MODIFICATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 CNL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OTHERWISE VFR CONDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS IN THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR I-80 TODAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF I-80 WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA. THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO 3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN IA/MO. HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP... A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH. && .AVIATION...26/12Z ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL CREATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL FOR KDSM AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR QUICK HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UPDATE AT 18Z SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE/MORE DETAILS ON DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...SMALL AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA. THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO 3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY 18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN IA/MO. HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP... A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH. && .AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 CIGS ARE MESSY ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NE AND LOWER VFR CIGS ACROSS THE N AND HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. A SOUPY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 09Z-12Z OR SO AND COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE ISOLD. ADDITIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY KOTM AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR TSRA AFT 20Z OR SO. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...SMALL AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1130 PM FRI JUL 25 2014 COMPLEX SCENARIO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO IA. COOLER AIR ALOFT COULD WEAKEN THE CAP AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO WRN/NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORM ALREADY ONGOING IN CEN/ERN NEB AND SDKTA MAY MERGE AND DRIFT INTO NRN IA WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS BUT IS PRETTY MEAGER ON QPF. THE HOPWRF AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST SOME SORT OF MCS PUSHING INTO NW/NRN IA THOUGH THAT LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE. STILL...WITH THE 4 INCH RAINFALLS IN LOCATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT AND THE SOUPY DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE UPDATE I WILL LIKELY EXPAND TSRA INTO NRN IA TOWARDS 12Z. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS FAR SRN/SE IA WHERE A WARM FRONT IS RESIDING AND PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FEEDING INTO A LLJ OF 30KTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL THOUGH ODDS GO WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE BETTER LOCATION FOR STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME FOG TO DEAL WITH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT EAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FORM THE LOW BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH TONIGHT. SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN NE WITH WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN IOWA DID NOT ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH TODAY AS ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALSO LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. THEREFORE...WILL DROP HEAT ADVISORY FOR REMAINING PORTION...LOCATIONS IN THE OLD ADVISORY AREA MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BELOW CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...HAVE DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS THE CWA AND HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST. SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE AREA NEAR 12Z...THOUGH MODELS KEEP SYSTEM FURTHER WEST...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR END OF PERIOD. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF IA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...DO NOT SEE A STRONG CHANCE OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH IA IA WILL KEEP IN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...LEANING TOWARD THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS OF THE OF NAM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITS STRENGTH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SAT NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 CIGS ARE MESSY ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NE AND LOWER VFR CIGS ACROSS THE N AND HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. A SOUPY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 09Z-12Z OR SO AND COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE ISOLD. ADDITIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY KOTM AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR TSRA AFT 20Z OR SO. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FAB SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14 SHORT TERM...AWB LONG TERM...MS JUL 14 AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF FROM TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF FROM TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD INCLUDE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. NEAR TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND ALL SUGGEST A MUCH COOLER START TO THE WEEK THAN THE PAST WEEK. CWA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THE RIDGE POSITION...PERIODS OF ASCENT ACROSS WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP AS NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES AND PERSISTENT WEAK WAA REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT DURING THE PERIOD AND WITH ELEVATED CAPE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THINK WE WILL SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO ADD SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO WX TIMING AS THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCED ASCENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PATTERN AM NOT EXPECTING LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD...ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS. IN THE EXTENDED(TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SIMILAR PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS H5 RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST. GEFS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR NORTH/EAST PRECIP SHIELD WILL GO. STILL THINK BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWA SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES HERE. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KGLD. KEPT VCTS MENTION IN KGLD TAF FOR THIS EVENING...AND LEFT MENTION OUT OF KMCK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR LINGER LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER I FELT MOST CONFIDENT WITH THE EVENING PERIOD AT THIS POINT. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15KT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL WITH FRONT SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 AND 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN JET FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DESPITE THE LACK OF FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.6 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AREA WIDE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 330 AND 350 K ARE STILL PLENTY TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KGLD. KEPT VCTS MENTION IN KGLD TAF FOR THIS EVENING...AND LEFT MENTION OUT OF KMCK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR LINGER LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER I FELT MOST CONFIDENT WITH THE EVENING PERIOD AT THIS POINT. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15KT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL WITH FRONT SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD. LOOKING AT RUC SOUNDINGS FOR TRIBUNE THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ABOVE 700MB...WITH A BULLS EYE OF NEAR 1500J/KG OF CAPE JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO LINE IN EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY DRIFTS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN END AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW). STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET. DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 AND 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN JET FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DESPITE THE LACK OF FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.6 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AREA WIDE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 330 AND 350 K ARE STILL PLENTY TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KMCK SITE. AM THINKING THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND IT. DURING THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF KGLD WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS OFF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD. LOOKING AT RUC SOUNDINGS FOR TRIBUNE THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ABOVE 700MB...WITH A BULLS EYE OF NEAR 1500J/KG OF CAPE JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO LINE IN EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY DRIFTS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN END AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW). STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET. DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME...WHICH THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EARLY ON WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHEN THE EC/GFS BOTH GENERATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF A CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 22-25C RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KMCK SITE. AM THINKING THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND IT. DURING THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF KGLD WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS OFF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...DLF AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon. The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70 dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to 105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory. The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no sign of it developing farther south toward our northern territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward development, but will keep the grids dry for now. The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday. Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term forecast. As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night, when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty into the weekend. Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for thunderstorms. Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init yielded mostly for collaboration purposes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 In the wake of a frontal passage today, high pressure will overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. At KCGI/KPAH northwest winds AOB 10 knots will continue through the period. At KEVV/KOWB northwest winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 18 knots will subside to AOB 10 knots around sunset, then back to gusty northwest winds after 15Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094. MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114. IN...NONE. KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
256 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 All evidence points to the cap (see ILX and DVN 18Z RAOBS) holding strong across the area late this afternoon and tonight. The lone exception may be along the I-64 corridor, where a complex of thunderstorms may push rapidly eastward generally in the 01Z-05Z timeframe this evening. The HRRR is still unable to generate a larger-scale bowing system, as seen on some of the shorter range models this morning. The 12Z NAM and GFS soundings show some weakness at times in the mid-level flow across our north, so the overall organization of any storms that develop may not be as significant as previously thought. Individual storm cells may have enough 0-3KM SRH to support rotating updrafts and would not be surprised to see some supercells initially, where storms can develop this evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible, and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out with any individual cells this evening. However, figure the cap will suppress any activity that tries to dip south of I-64, or possibly even into our northern- most counties. The mid-upper 70 dewpoints have descended upon the region as expected, and heat indices have reached triple digits over much of the area. Already issued a Special Weather Statement for the heat. It should subside by 7 PM, and would be surprised to see values above 105, so will not be issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Overnight, the models struggle to generate much, if any, convection over our region, so will keep PoPs at 30% or less. The cold front will move through the region Sunday, and the low to mid 70 dewpoints and temperatures well into the 90s are expected ahead of it over the southeast 2/3 of the area in the afternoon. This could lead to heat indices near today`s levels, and a righteous airmass for strong to severe thunderstorms to feed on. Winds ahead of the front will be nearly due west, and quite strong, pushing Lake Wind Advisory levels, especially east of the Mississippi River. The veered winds result in only weak convergence along the boundary, so thunderstorm coverage is expected to be widely scattered to scattered, with better coverage later in the day along the Tennessee border. Certainly cannot rule out a few severe storms mainly over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. The consensus of guidance is that most if not all of the convective activity will shift south of the area by early Sunday evening. Will have a dry forecast for the entire area overnight Sunday through Monday Night. A deep trough over the Great Lakes and northeast will keep the area in strong northwest flow aloft through the period. North winds will bring much cooler and drier air into the region through the period, as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Above medium confidence in the extended. High pressure aloft will be firmly in place over west with a persistent upper level trough over the east. This will place in a much drier northerly flow in the fronts wake. This will also result in unseasonable low RH reading for most of the upcoming week. By the end of the week the upper level trough deepens and even suggest a cut off upper low forming the lower Tennessee Valley Friday into the weekend. This will allow for at least daytime storm chances mainly in the afternoon with max heating...but could not rule out some activity into the evening hours. Temperatures will much cooler than normal through the extended with lower to middle 80s for the region. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The main concern to aviation for this forecast cycle is the potential for a complex of severe storms with damaging winds pushing rapidly east southeast through KEVV and possibly KOWB this evening and possibly overnight. At this time, forecast confidence is quite low in this evolution, and there is a real possibility that the storms will stay north and east of the terminals. Will not insert TS in the TAFs at this time, as there should be ample time to add it into the forecast when it becomes more obvious its going to happen. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A relatively shallow boundary layer will allow temperatures warm into the lower 90s over most of the area as expected this afternoon. However, it will also trap the low-level moisture, and allow mid 70 dewpoints to overspread the region through the afternoon. This will create heat indices in the 100 to 105 range over most of the region. Will likely issue an SPS for the heat in the next hour. As for severe weather, SPC has just pushed the southern edge of their moderate risk northward, right along our northern border in southern Illinois. There is a whole lot of uncertainty in the convective evolution to support a moderate risk into our area. The latest HRRR runs have been developing convection near the STL metro area around 00Z, presumably near the MCV that is currently over northwest Missouri. The HRRR then pushes the convection east southeast along our northern border areas in the 02Z-05Z timeframe. It has not shown any signs of a larger-scale bowing MCS/derecho, like the 00Z WRF runs were advertising. If storms do push into our area this evening, damaging winds will be the primary concern, with large hail and tornadoes lesser concerns. Of course, there is a real possibility that this evening activity could stay completely north of our forecast area. There could be some convection firing over the Evansville Tri State into the overnight hours, if an outflow boundary pushes into that area. Damaging wind would be the primary concern overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Biggest forecast challenge this period is on how to deal with MCS development this afternoon and possibly again early tonight. Much of the meso-convective models this morning point to rapid destabilization this afternoon as surface temperatures soar into the 90s and dew points climb into the upper 60s to near 70. Thing is, most of the region should remain under thermal capping until later in the day. MCS development is likely to occur over se IA and west central MO this afternoon, then propagate ese toward the I-70 and I-64 corridors late in the day as the capping weakens. There is some question as to whether this initial convection will brush by just to our north or actually clip the I-64 corridor of IL/sw IN. Given the extreme instability expected and decent wind fields aloft, what convection does form later today has a very good chance of being severe at times, with damaging wind gusts, large hail and even isolated tornadoes possible. Even if this initial convection/MCS misses our forecast area, additional thunderstorm development will be possible along its outflow boundary early this evening and into the night. Cold front enters the scene late tonight into Sun AM, and will likely be located somewhere near the OH River by noon. Depending on the degree of heating that can occur along ahead of this front, more strong thunderstorm development could occur in areas along and south of the OH River Sunday afternoon. Should finally clear out Sunday night behind the sfc front as much cooler and drier air flows back into the region. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A very tranquil week is coming up for the region next week. By 12Z Monday, the upper level wave and associated sfc front will be in the eastern Great Lakes region and will continue to move off the eastern seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. During the week, our region will be under the influence of a large trough across the eastern half of the country, with amplified ridging taking place out west. Models bring a weak lobe of energy southward across the area on Monday, but it should only result in some passing clouds, as moisture is limited. The 00Z NAM/GFS hints at a possible shower to two in parts of southwest IN where moisture might be a little better, but will leave dry for now. However, the bigger story to start out the week, will be the below normal temperatures. High pressure from central Canada will migrate south/southeastward toward us early next week and bring a much cooler/drier airmass into our region. While we will see much cooler temperatures on Monday as compared to the projected weekend heat, the coolest air will likely take until about Tuesday to arrive. This means that we should experience another few degree drop in temperatures then, with some places likely only reaching the upper 70s for highs. Guidance numbers have been rather consistent for the past few days so no real changes to temperatures needed right now. With high pressure influencing the weather through at least Thursday, we should expect a mainly rain free forecast with temperatures moderating back into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week. Northwest flow can be tricky with regards to figuring out if there could be any decent chances for rain, but moisture will definitely be limited to just the lower levels. By Thursday night and into Friday though, the sfc high breaks down and deeper moisture advects into the area. This increase in moisture, along with a lobe of energy pivoting down in the northwest flow aloft, could mean some chances convection by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The main concern to aviation for this forecast cycle is the potential for a complex of severe storms with damaging winds pushing rapidly east southeast through KEVV and possibly KOWB this evening and possibly overnight. At this time, forecast confidence is quite low in this evolution, and there is a real possibility that the storms will stay north and east of the terminals. Will not insert TS in the TAFs at this time, as there should be ample time to add it into the forecast when it becomes more obvious its going to happen. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A relatively shallow boundary layer will allow temperatures warm into the lower 90s over most of the area as expected this afternoon. However, it will also trap the low-level moisture, and allow mid 70 dewpoints to overspread the region through the afternoon. This will create heat indices in the 100 to 105 range over most of the region. Will likely issue an SPS for the heat in the next hour. As for severe weather, SPC has just pushed the southern edge of their moderate risk northward, right along our northern border in southern Illinois. There is a whole lot of uncertainty in the convective evolution to support a moderate risk into our area. The latest HRRR runs have been developing convection near the STL metro area around 00Z, presumably near the MCV that is currently over northwest Missouri. The HRRR then pushes the convection east southeast along our northern border areas in the 02Z-05Z timeframe. It has not shown any signs of a larger-scale bowing MCS/derecho, like the 00Z WRF runs were advertising. If storms do push into our area this evening, damaging winds will be the primary concern, with large hail and tornadoes lesser concerns. Of course, there is a real possibility that this evening activity could stay completely north of our forecast area. There could be some convection firing over the Evansville Tri State into the overnight hours, if an outflow boundary pushes into that area. Damaging wind would be the primary concern overnight. UPDATE Issued at 733 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 For aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Biggest forecast challenge this period is on how to deal with MCS development this afternoon and possibly again early tonight. Much of the meso-convective models this morning point to rapid destabilization this afternoon as surface temperatures soar into the 90s and dew points climb into the upper 60s to near 70. Thing is, most of the region should remain under thermal capping until later in the day. MCS development is likely to occur over se IA and west central MO this afternoon, then propagate ese toward the I-70 and I-64 corridors late in the day as the capping weakens. There is some question as to whether this initial convection will brush by just to our north or actually clip the I-64 corridor of IL/sw IN. Given the extreme instability expected and decent wind fields aloft, what convection does form later today has a very good chance of being severe at times, with damaging wind gusts, large hail and even isolated tornadoes possible. Even if this initial convection/MCS misses our forecast area, additional thunderstorm development will be possible along its outflow boundary early this evening and into the night. Cold front enters the scene late tonight into Sun AM, and will likely be located somewhere near the OH River by noon. Depending on the degree of heating that can occur along ahead of this front, more strong thunderstorm development could occur in areas along and south of the OH River Sunday afternoon. Should finally clear out Sunday night behind the sfc front as much cooler and drier air flows back into the region. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A very tranquil week is coming up for the region next week. By 12Z Monday, the upper level wave and associated sfc front will be in the eastern Great Lakes region and will continue to move off the eastern seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. During the week, our region will be under the influence of a large trough across the eastern half of the country, with amplified ridging taking place out west. Models bring a weak lobe of energy southward across the area on Monday, but it should only result in some passing clouds, as moisture is limited. The 00Z NAM/GFS hints at a possible shower to two in parts of southwest IN where moisture might be a little better, but will leave dry for now. However, the bigger story to start out the week, will be the below normal temperatures. High pressure from central Canada will migrate south/southeastward toward us early next week and bring a much cooler/drier airmass into our region. While we will see much cooler temperatures on Monday as compared to the projected weekend heat, the coolest air will likely take until about Tuesday to arrive. This means that we should experience another few degree drop in temperatures then, with some places likely only reaching the upper 70s for highs. Guidance numbers have been rather consistent for the past few days so no real changes to temperatures needed right now. With high pressure influencing the weather through at least Thursday, we should expect a mainly rain free forecast with temperatures moderating back into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week. Northwest flow can be tricky with regards to figuring out if there could be any decent chances for rain, but moisture will definitely be limited to just the lower levels. By Thursday night and into Friday though, the sfc high breaks down and deeper moisture advects into the area. This increase in moisture, along with a lobe of energy pivoting down in the northwest flow aloft, could mean some chances convection by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 733 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2014 Will be in warm sector during this TAF period. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop over IA/IL and move east southeast toward the I 64 region aft 21z. Could brush KEVV/KOWB late in the day or during the evening, but confidence not high enough at this time to mention explicitly in TAFS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S. FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN. FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST, WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25 KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS SWINGS OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 935 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY TO BRING SOME MORE CLOUDINESS INTO REGION ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME THICKER CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THESE REGIONS. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL(POPS) TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENCE OF THE NAM12 AND RAP MODEL. DECIDED ON 20% FOR ISOLATED WORDING FOR SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS IS NOT THE IMPRESSIVE W/LIS NO LESS THAN -2 TO SBCAPES OF 300 TO PERHAPS 500 J/KG. THE IS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0+C/KM THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM ABOUT 850-700MBS PER THE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY CANADA. ALL IN ALL ONE MORE FAIR WEATHER DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE START OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RAINY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN TOW. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE PINE TREE STATE AS A SERIES OF LOWS DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWS IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, BOTH DAYS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL; MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIMEFRAME; EXACTLY WHEN IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS. THEREAFTER, THE REGION LOOKS TO BE UNDER A VERY NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR DRY WEATHER, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK, WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY MVFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN HZ/BR. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY, THOUGH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MVFR COULD STILL STRIKE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE HOLD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SOUTH FLOW IS PROGGED TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD. WHILE WNAWAVE LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE (8-10 FT), WAVES AROUND 6 FEET SEEM REASONABLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 00Z. PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN... TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S. MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND. OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS IN THE 60S. UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20% FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S. MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN. HIGHS L-M80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG. MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO 25-30 KT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI. WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JEF/LSA MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND SHRTWV RDG AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO MN/NW ONTARIO FM CENTER OF HIER HGTS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTER AIR IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW BTWN SFC/H85 HI OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MSLP IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LO IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN THAT IS RIDING OVER THE RDG CENTERED IN THE SRN ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS/A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA TDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SW CLOSER TO SHARP H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HI STABILITY SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ESPECIALLY THE GRB RAOB...WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP INVRN ARND H75...HAS TENDED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED UPR MI. OVER THE ERN CWA...VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SUNSHINE. BUT TO THE W...MORE SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NE MN/WRN LK SUP IN AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E ADVCTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER ARND CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT EWD PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE NRN PLAINS IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. LATE TDAY/TNGT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW IN NE MN AND A FEW TS...THE POTENTIAL OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT HIER MID LVL STABILITY DEPICTED BEST ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...TO SPREAD W-E INTO UPR MI WITH AREA OF POSITIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT WL LIFT PWAT UP TO ARND 1.5 INCHES/AXIS OF SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TRACKING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE POPS LATER EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS A 2ND SHRTWV MIGHT FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. FCST LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER THE W LATE INDICATES THE DRYING WL OVERCOME ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. GOING FCST POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NEED ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING LATE...DVLPG LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. SAT...ANY LINGERING MRNG SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE CWA WL END WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF THAT WL DEPRESS PWAT TO 0.75-1.0 INCH/DNVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING 2ND SHRTWV. WITH MRNG LO CLDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND FCST H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 17-18C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LKS. GIVEN THE MID LVL DRYING/POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING AND NEAR ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES...PREFER THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...AT LEAST OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL CNDN MODEL...DO INDICATE THIS DAYTIME HEATING WL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE AFTN WITH CONVERGING LK BREEZES OFF LKS SUP/MI UNDER SOMEHWAT LOWER HGTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DLPMNT OF THESE LK BREEZE SHOWERS/TS WL BE THE DRYING ALF THAT IS FCST TO MIX TO THE SFC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...DEEP MIXING ON THE GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS HINT SFC DEWPTS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF COULD MIX OUT AS LO AS 45-50 LATE IN THE DAY...WITH KINX DROPPING TO 15-20. THE NAM FCST SDNG FOR NEWBERRY AT 18Z SHOWS SBCAPE ARND 2K G/KG FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/65. PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FCST FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/60 AND SBCAPE CLOSE TO 700 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITATION OF THE LARGE SCALE DRYING...WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LK BREEZE CNVGC. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 COOL SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 7-10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAYS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY WILL END UP AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS PER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS. BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE OCCURS AS THE INITIAL STRONG SFC-H85 COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST WILL THE RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALSO IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR TSRA. SI/S BARELY BUMP BLO ZERO AND THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WI BORDER. HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED JUST TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TRACK...MAINLY 09Z-21Z SUNDAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT ARE LIMITED TO A CHANCE AT BEST. UNLESS THE STORMS FORM EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING WHEN DEEP SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG... DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THERE WOULD BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED TSRA SUNDAY AFTN. ATTM THOUGH LI/S BLO ZERO ARE FORECAST TO STAY OVER WI AS STABLE COOL RAINY NORTH FLOW SHUNTS THE GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPS MORE ALONG LK SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. POINTS FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN U.P. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGIN. SHOULD NOTE THAT THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL INCREASE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES OF LK SUPERIOR MQT TO GRAND MARAIS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THE AIR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR HIGHER...WOULD NEED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK EITHER FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. ULTIMATELY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE DAY. BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY COUPLED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING AFTN AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS RESULT IN LESS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO LESS DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE DURING THE AFTN FAR INLAND TO PUT KEEP SMALL TSRA CHANCES AS WELL WITH THE SHRA. MEAN WINDS FM NORTH TO SOUTH RESULT IN GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST DAYS FARTHEST INLAND FROM THE MODERATION/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS. ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...RJT MARINE...TITUS/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE. CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO TE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER. THEN LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY INTO SUNDAY. KMSP... VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DROPS MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE MORNING. S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS. WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE. CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LIFR FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MN EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO RETURN BY MID MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TOGETHER WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME COVERAGE WILL BE TO SCARCE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. KMSP... MVFR/LIFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT THE SITES SURROUNDING KMSP...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SHORTLY. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCARCE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS. WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE. CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TODAY CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. KMSP... IN ADDITION TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THICK FOG OR LOW STRATUS AT KMSP. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Primary concern continues to be convective trends for this evening. Current trends are pointing more and more toward there being less severe weather in our CWFA than previously expected, with the primary threat for severe storms further north/northeast in southeast IA and central IL. A broad area of showers and stratiform rain associated with an MCV which is spinning its way across the state is putting the kibosh on much of the instability which was forecast for late this afternoon/evening. A limited ribbon of very high CAPE (MLCAPE in excess of 3500-4000 J/Kg) remains over extreme northeast MO into southern IA and a much larger area of high CAPE over central and southern IL. Storms are already rumbling just north of our CWFA in southern IA and west central IL and I would expect these areas of storms to continue to develop and strengthen. Still cannot rule out severe storms from Kirksville to Quincy and southeast to Litchfield and possibly Salem...but the probability seems to be much lower than previously expected. After the evening severe weather threat has passed, there is still the possibility that there could be additional development overnight. RAP and NAM both show moderate moisture convergence at 850mb ahead of the front and generate QPF in response. Have left chance/slight chance PoPs going for most of the area through the night. The wind shift associated with the approaching cold front should be sliding into the northern 1/3 of our CWFA between 09-12Z with drier low level air trying to nose in. This should effectively cut off the chance for additional precip in those areas in the pre-dawn hours. Carney .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 The cold front is expected to push through early Sunday morning. A minimal rain threat will exist during the morning near it, with a dry afternoon on tap behind it. The cooling effects will not be felt too much early on, with another warm day expected: max temps still look to top 90 degrees for most areas near and south of I-70. The big difference will be lower humidity from today, however. After Sunday, an extended dry period is forecast as a deep longwave upper TROF sets up over eastern North America with a stout NW flow aloft for our region. This usually means either dry, or surprise hit-and-run systems this time of year, but almost always means below average temps. For now, am going with dry until Thursday, with low PoPs thereafter as a system works its way down into our region and stays for a bit. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Primary concern is thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Expecting the precipitation over west central/centra MO to continue to move eastward. It is unclear yet how much these storms will strengthen/expand, but some strong wind gusts and hail are possible with this complex as it moves eastward. Another area of concern will be in northeast MO/west central IL later this afternoon/this evening where a complex of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop and should move rapidly east-southeast. Wind gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail will be possible with this cluster. Still some uncertainty on the exact track of the thunderstorm complex, though the most likely parts of the area to be affected will be along and north of a line from KIRK to KSLO. Afterthe storms move through this evening, expect VFR flight conditions. A cold front will move through early Sunday morning shifting the wind to the west-northwest. Specifics for KSTL: Primary concern at Lambert is the possibility of thunderstorms early this evening. Current thinking is that the storms over central/west central Missouri may not affect the terminal, but a cluster of severe thunderstorms will develop over northern MO/southern IA and race east-southeast. Think the best threat for storms will be north of Lambert along and north of a line from KIRK to KSLO. After storms clear the area this evening expect VFR flight conditions to prevail. A cold front will pass through the terminal early Sunday morning which will shift the wind to the northwest. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Franklin MO- Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO- Warren MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Primary concern continues to be convective trends for this evening. Current trends are pointing more and more toward there being less severe weather in our CWFA than previously expected, with the primary threat for severe storms further north/northeast in southeast IA and central IL. A broad area of showers and stratiform rain associated with an MCV which is spinning its way across the state is putting the kibosh on much of the instability which was forecast for late this afternoon/evening. A limited ribbon of very high CAPE (MLCAPE in excess of 3500-4000 J/Kg) remains over extreme northeast MO into southern IA and a much larger area of high CAPE over central and southern IL. Storms are already rumbling just north of our CWFA in southern IA and west central IL and I would expect these areas of storms to continue to develop and strengthen. Still cannot rule out severe storms from Kirksville to Quincy and southeast to Litchfield and possibly Salem...but the probability seems to be much lower than previously expected. After the evening severe weather threat has passed, there is still the possibility that there could be additional development overnight. RAP and NAM both show moderate moisture convergence at 850mb ahead of the front and generate QPF in response. Have left chance/slight chance PoPs going for most of the area through the night. The wind shift associated with the approaching cold front should be sliding into the northern 1/3 of our CWFA between 09-12Z with drier low level air trying to nose in. This should effectively cut off the chance for additional precip in those areas in the pre-dawn hours. Carney .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 The cold front will extend from northeast Illinois to around St. Louis into northern Oklahoma at 12z and should exit the CWA by early afternoon as the upper low/trof moves southeastward into the Great Lakes. The precipitation threat will be considerably lower Sunday morning ahead of the front and I don`t expect to see much. Increasing northwesterly winds will usher drier and cooler air into the region during the afternoon in the wake of the front. The large surface high will settle into the Nation`s midsection on Monday and then become a dominant feature into midweek as a deep upper trof persists over eastern NOAM. Below average temperatures will prevail throughout next week. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 Primary concern is thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Expecting the precipitation over west central/centra MO to continue to move eastward. It is unclear yet how much these storms will strengthen/expand, but some strong wind gusts and hail are possible with this complex as it moves eastward. Another area of concern will be in northeast MO/west central IL later this afternoon/this evening where a complex of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop and should move rapidly east-southeast. Wind gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail will be possible with this cluster. Still some uncertainty on the exact track of the thunderstorm complex, though the most likely parts of the area to be affected will be along and north of a line from KIRK to KSLO. Afterthe storms move through this evening, expect VFR flight conditions. A cold front will move through early Sunday morning shifting the wind to the west-northwest. Specifics for KSTL: Primary concern at Lambert is the possibility of thunderstorms early this evening. Current thinking is that the storms over central/west central Missouri may not affect the terminal, but a cluster of severe thunderstorms will develop over northern MO/southern IA and race east-southeast. Think the best threat for storms will be north of Lambert along and north of a line from KIRK to KSLO. After storms clear the area this evening expect VFR flight conditions to prevail. A cold front will pass through the terminal early Sunday morning which will shift the wind to the northwest. Carney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 77 90 66 81 / 40 20 0 5 Quincy 71 84 61 77 / 70 10 5 10 Columbia 74 89 62 81 / 20 10 0 5 Jefferson City 75 89 63 81 / 20 10 0 5 Salem 73 90 63 79 / 60 30 0 5 Farmington 75 91 61 80 / 20 30 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Franklin MO- Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO- Warren MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3 degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as 103. The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the threat of severe weather is low. The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve around the heat. The second concern will revolve around precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the severe potential surrounding them. Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats (other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into the night time hours. By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow. Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The ongoing showers/storms in the area should move east of the terminals within an hour or two of issuance. The focus then shifts to what the storms in northeastern Nebraska will do. On their current path, they should stay to the northeast of the terminals and possibly move through northern/northeastern Missouri. Latest guidance suggest this line will weaken/erode as it begins to build into the area though. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still but confidence is higher that this developing complex will not impact the terminals. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029- 037-043-053. && $$ UPDATE...CDB DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3 degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as 103. The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the threat of severe weather is low. The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve around the heat. The second concern will revolve around precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the severe potential surrounding them. Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats (other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into the night time hours. By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow. Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VFR conds will continue the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the terminals so have not included a VCTS mention in the TAF at this time however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable this evening as the front approaches. FROPA will occur btn 03Z-05Z with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029- 037-043-053. && $$ UPDATE...CDB DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY... A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY... NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY... STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY... GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINED LATE IN THE EVENING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE LEADING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TENDED TO HEAD TOWARD THE BETTER MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES TOWARD UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME PARAMETERS STILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE VARIES FROM DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ON THE RAP MODEL...A STARK CHANGE FROM AFTERNOON RUNS...TO STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE KGSO 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...UPDATED TAFS TO BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN CONDITIONS...BUT LEFT STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH A GUSTY WIND GIVEN CONTINUED INSTABILITY...SURFACE WINDS REMAINING GUSTY ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST...AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN EVOLVING CONDITIONS. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104F RANGE. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT... BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10 BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039- 053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY... A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY... NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY... STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY... GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY... LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES ARE SLOWLY LIFTING/ DISSIPATING WITH HEATING. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS...HOWEVER ALSO NOTED A DRY LAYER BETWEEN H6-H7 AND DRY ABOVE H5...ALONG WITH W-NW FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE TO SHALLOW- TO PERHAPS SOME MODERATE CU THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDING ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO SIGNIF UPDATES THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY... SHEARED S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS MORNING... RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...COINCIDENT WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AS FORCING WILL OTHERWISE BE CONFINED TO VERY SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND 20M FROM YESTERDAY AND DESPITE SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM BOTH S/W MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SLOW LIFTING/DISSIPATION OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG ANTICIPATE WE SHOULD REACH FULL SUN READINGS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEAN TIME...PIEDMONT TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN UP. IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS CONVECTIN DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER...OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HINTED BY THE LATEST EC AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...A MODIFIED EML LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LAPSE RATES OF 7.25-7.50 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT COULD LARGE HAIL. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NW. DEEP MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 21C WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MIXING WILL DROP DEWPOINTS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE 100-103. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MON/MON NIGHT: FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED TOWARDS THE REGION AS A UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST...WITH STRONG 40-60M HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITY (~1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS PROBABLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT MOISTURE AND ULTIMATE COVERAGE...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOR PRECIP AND ULTIMATE SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH) AND POSSIBLY MORESO ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE ALL THE PARAMETERS WILL LINE UP THE BEST. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION... MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFR MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AND DISPERSE TO MVFR AOA 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 16Z. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT IS LOW...LIKELY LIMITED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRWI. LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY (IN THE NORTHWEST) INTO MONDAY... PARTICULARLY MONDAY (ESPECIALLY EAST). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...NP/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL/KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY... SHEARED S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS MORNING... RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...COINCIDENT WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AS FORCING WILL OTHERWISE BE CONFINED TO VERY SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND 20M FROM YESTERDAY AND DESPITE SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM BOTH S/W MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SLOW LIFTING/DISSIPATION OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG ANTICIPATE WE SHOULD REACH FULL SUN READINGS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEAN TIME...PIEDMONT TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN UP. IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS CONVECTIN DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER...OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HINTED BY THE LATEST EC AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...A MODIFIED EML LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LAPSE RATES OF 7.25-7.50 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT COULD LARGE HAIL. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NW. DEEP MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 21C WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MIXING WILL DROP DEWPOINTS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE 100-103. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MON/MON NIGHT: FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED TOWARDS THE REGION AS A UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST...WITH STRONG 40-60M HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITY (~1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS PROBABLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT MOISTURE AND ULTIMATE COVERAGE...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOR PRECIP AND ULTIMATE SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH) AND POSSIBLY MORESO ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE ALL THE PARAMETERS WILL LINE UP THE BEST. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION... MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFR MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AND DISPERSE TO MVFR AOA 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 16Z. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT IS LOW...LIKELY LIMITED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRWI. LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY (IN THE NORTHWEST) INTO MONDAY... PARTICULARLY MONDAY (ESPECIALLY EAST). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL/KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND READJUST AT 10 PM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A LOW SHIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HAVE EXPANDED DENSER CLOUD COVER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TO MATCH GOING TREND. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED LOW PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO MATCH THE GOING TREND OF LIGHT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG WITH HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S. IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASICALLY DRY AND WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATER TONIGHT...MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S. IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASICALLY DRY AND WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S. IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASICALLY DRY AND WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S. IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASICALLY DRY AND WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE BY 02Z SUNDAY. ALSO...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... EVENING UPDATE...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN NC ZONES AND INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. MANY REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF TREES BLOWN DOWN AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE ORGANIZING IN A PREFRONTAL AREA OF STEEP MLVL LAPSE RATES AND HAVE TAPPED INTO DCAPE VALUES OVER 1100 J/KG. THERE EXISTS A HIGH AMOUNT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT THE STORMS HAVE MORPHED OUT SUPERCELL MODE...WITH LOSS OF MLCAPE AND INCREASING LLVL CIN. THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF COLD POOL CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NRN TN AND THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TN...THEN CROSS THE GSP CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HYDRO ISSUES ARE BECOMING A CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FFG EXCEEDANCE...WITH RATIOS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE ERN SMOKIES AND THE BALSAMS. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MIN TEMP GRID. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP ACROSS THE CURRENT MCS TRACK. 730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK. 430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS... ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO... ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN /DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE... DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL. A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO... TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA. ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW. EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY LONG TERM...JPT AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK. 430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS... ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO... ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN /DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE... DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL. A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO... TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA. ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW. EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY LONG TERM...JPT AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR REDUCING EVENING RAIN CHANCES. && .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT NEARLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF EACH HOUR CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EVEN MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE IN HENRY AND BENTON COUNTIES. THIS TAIL END OF THE LINE MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A STRONG STORM STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE NONEXISTENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SOUTH. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VICINITY TYPE COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD END BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT. AT KTUP...VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON LATER TONIGHT AND END BEFORE SUNRISE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AREAWIDE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FEW CUMULUS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. JLH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY...ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. .DISCUSSION... HEAT INDICES BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW BELOW 105F DEGREES. THEREFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED. CURRENT COLD FRONT NOW NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE LINES WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTH...USHERING IN DRIER AIR. OUT AHEAD CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ON SATELLITE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOW CROSSING THE OZARKS...WITH PLENTY OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SPARK`S OFF NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO THE PAST MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCY. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE THE BEST DYNAMICS LIES ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO REFLECT THESE OVERNIGHT CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VICINITY TYPE COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD END BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT. AT KTUP...VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON LATER TONIGHT AND END BEFORE SUNRISE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR AREAWIDE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FEW CUMULUS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. JLH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY...ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... HEAT INDICES BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW BELOW 105F DEGREES. THEREFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED. CURRENT COLD FRONT NOW NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE LINES WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTH...USHERING IN DRIER AIR. OUT AHEAD CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ON SATELLITE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOW CROSSING THE OZARKS...WITH PLENTY OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SPARK`S OFF NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO THE PAST MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCY. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE THE BEST DYNAMICS LIES ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO REFLECT THESE OVERNIGHT CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AC3 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS MAIN CONCERN IS AFTERNOON TSRA POTENTIAL. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE BUT PREDOMINATELY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A WARM LAYER OF AIR AROUND FL060. BEST CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP APPEARS NEAR MKL AFTER 21Z. BASED ON 12Z NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOWED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP... HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS AT MEM...BUT DIALED BACK THE START TIME TO 22Z AND REDUCED CB COVERAGE. GRADUAL /AROUND 2 HOUR/ VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR PREVAILING AREAWIDE IN THE DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN... WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES. THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE MODEST. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS/TEMPS. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...THOUGH THUNDER HAS ENDED AS MORE STABLE AIR MASS WORKING IN. CLEARING MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH...THOUGH CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE U P. CIGS WITH THESE CLOUDS VFR. WILL MONITOR TAFS TO ADD IF THEY STAY TOGETHER AS MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI. NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S. DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SUN DESCENDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. WHILE SCT CLOUDS WERE CARRIED AT THE TAF SITES...COULD SEE SOME BKN PATCHES OF VFR OR HIGHER MVFR CLOUD... BUT PREDICTING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF SUCH WOULD BE DIFFICULT. THIS IS A MORE OPTIMISTIC-SIDED FORECAST...BUT IF MVFR CLOUD /BKN020-030/ PATCHES BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE VIA SATELLITE...WILL UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN... WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES. THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE MODEST. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS/TEMPS. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF REDUCTION OF CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR OR MVFR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR THOUGH NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45 KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NEB. COOL OUTFLOW SHOWERS IN MID LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STRINGING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS...BUT MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT KRST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLEX SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST SO CONFIDENT IT WILL MISS KLSE. STILL...LOW CLOUD LINGERING IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT KEEPING INVERSION IN PLACE. DO FEEL THE LOWER CLOUD WILL MIX OUT ONCE THE SHOWER AREA PASSES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A NICE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND INTO WI BY SUNDAY. DESPITE MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STRONG FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FORCE STORMS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT WILL PERHAPS BE SOME CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MANIFEST AS CLOUD AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BOYNE SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. THERE IS A NICE POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF CLOUDS UP STREAM...SO LOOKS LIKE SUN MAY BE LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND UPDATE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI. THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE SMALL THREAT THERE. SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MARINE... COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING LOW PRESSURE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
749 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45 KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH 26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER 26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH 26.22Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BOYNE SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH 26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER 26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH 26.22Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BEING SENT NORTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES. EVEN SOME DRIZZLE HAS FORMED...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AS EXPECTED IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN WITH TOB NOW VFR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ANTICIPATING THAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO RST... CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS GO VFR. HOWEVER...THIS SAME CLEARING MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY BR TO DEVELOP... WHICH IS NOTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT LSE...IT APPEARS THE CLEARING MAY TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...THUS HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS PLAN OF CONDITIONS CLIMBING TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ITS POSSIBLE LSE DROPS TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER 13Z...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 10000 FT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
911 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAINED CONFINED MOSTLY TO PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES...WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT PROMPTED BOTH SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND A COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE OF THE FIRST STORMS TO DEVELOP WAS OVER NORTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY... WHICH BECAME SEVERE AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES. AT ANY RATE...THE STORMS THAT MARCHED ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTY FROM NEW MEXICO MADE IT AS FAR AS EXTREME NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CATALINAS...BUT DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE CURRENTLY SPILLING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS MOVING THROUGH THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS. SO FAR NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...STORMS CONTINUE FROM NEAR TOMBSTONE SOUTHWARD TO HEREFORD AND NACO AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF BISBEE. THESE STORMS CONTINUE INTO NORTHEAST SONORA. MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY WILL SPREAD THROUGH PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE REMNANT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND EASTERN PINAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PHOENIX AREA. I INHERITED 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. FOR NOW I THINK I WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT FOR AREAS THAT ALREADY GOT HIT...SUCH AS GRAHAM AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...BUT LEAVE THE REST "AS IS". AFTER MIDNIGHT I HAVE BASICALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TYPE POPS GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z. ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH WNW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER 29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS. STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LEVELS). THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE. DEW POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD. 00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES). HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING. THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS. OVERALL...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. BUT GIVEN THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THAT WATCH. THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING WFO/S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVR THE SERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 ...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK... WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP. THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S. ROSE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB. RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093- 094-097-099. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...ROSE AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU. THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU. THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE. THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z- 10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z- 10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA. TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70 IN MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP. STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... /ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMICS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN. 01 CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 07-29 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911 1981 KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977 1926 1986 1896 KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994 KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897 1952 RECORDS FOR 07-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925 1915 KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936 1980 KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957 1986 KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920 2008 1958 RECORDS FOR 07-31 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936 KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936 1986 1896 1980 KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997 1981 2010 KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936 && AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z TONIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0 ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 30 30 10 0 BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 10 10 CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0 COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 20 60 20 0 GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0 MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 20 0 ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0 PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 40 10 0 VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20/39 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF FROM TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE SINCE 0Z VERSION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW FOR KGLD WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST THEN BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS FOR KMCK WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTH. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon. The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70 dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to 105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory. The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no sign of it developing farther south toward our northern territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward development, but will keep the grids dry for now. The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday. Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term forecast. As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night, when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty into the weekend. Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for thunderstorms. Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init yielded mostly for collaboration purposes. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 In the wake of a frontal passage earlier today, high pressure will overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. Northwest to north winds AOB 10 knots will continue through the period at KCGI/KPAH, but at KEVV/KOWB expect northwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight, gusty northwest winds between 15-01Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 01Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWRD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ AVIATION... MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR 5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL. WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR 4-7KTS OVERNIGHT. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 70 92 69 88 / 30 10 0 10 30 MLU 93 66 90 65 87 / 30 10 0 10 30 DEQ 90 64 88 64 83 / 20 10 0 20 50 TXK 92 67 89 66 86 / 20 10 0 10 50 ELD 92 65 89 65 85 / 20 10 0 10 50 TYR 93 71 92 71 90 / 30 10 0 10 30 GGG 93 70 92 69 89 / 30 10 0 10 30 LFK 95 73 93 71 92 / 30 20 10 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .AVIATION... MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR 5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL. WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR 4-7KTS OVERNIGHT. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 92 71 91 68 88 / 30 20 0 10 10 MLU 92 67 89 64 87 / 30 20 0 10 10 DEQ 89 64 85 63 83 / 20 10 0 0 30 TXK 91 67 88 65 86 / 30 20 0 0 20 ELD 91 67 86 64 85 / 30 20 0 0 10 TYR 92 71 91 70 90 / 30 20 10 10 20 GGG 92 70 91 69 89 / 30 20 10 10 20 LFK 94 73 92 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
320 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z. CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S. FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN. FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST, WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25 KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS SWINGS OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1239 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT... THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY... BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1235 AM UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHWRS AND PSBLY AN EMBDD TSTM ACRS ECENTRAL NH WEAKENING BUT SLOWLY DRIFTING E. MADE SOME ADJ FOR POPS TO COVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...OTRW LOWERED POPS ELSWHR OVER ERN AND OVER THE WATERS. HRRR SHOWS NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO ROATE NEWD ARND 11Z AND THEN NEWD IN SRN/WRN ME BY 14Z. HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL SO THIS TIMING IS ACCEPTED. MADE SOME SIG ADJ TO POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. ALSO PUT IN WORDING FOR HVY DOWNPOURS AND GSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS INDICES INICATE SOME STG TSTM ACTVTY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE FA TODAY. PREV FCST: PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE. USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85 THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL TOTALS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70 INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM- REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND 20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS (MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS SLIDES TO THE S. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH OCNL LOWER VSBYS THRU SUNRISE AT IWD WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON MON AFTN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A -SHRA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVNG WITH THE APRCH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE LLVLS WL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE VFR WX EVEN IF A -SHRA IMPACTS ANY OF THE SITES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED. WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH 5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE 60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/ .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/ && .AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 93 63 89 63 / 18 5 2 2 MERIDIAN 94 61 90 59 / 19 5 2 2 VICKSBURG 93 61 89 63 / 17 4 2 2 HATTIESBURG 96 67 91 64 / 26 18 4 2 NATCHEZ 93 65 88 64 / 26 12 7 2 GREENVILLE 91 65 87 63 / 16 4 2 2 GREENWOOD 91 63 85 59 / 14 4 2 2 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI. A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL THREE DAYS. TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY 3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN LATER FORECASTS. THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS... ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST. S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
317 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST. S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID 80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP. DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING THIS AM. FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270 DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104F RANGE. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING THIS AM. FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270 DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT... BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10 BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY... A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY... NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY... STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 100 AM MONDAY... BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 SKY IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH 12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND READJUST AT 10 PM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR REDUCING EVENING RAIN CHANCES. DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT NEARLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF EACH HOUR CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EVEN MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE IN HENRY AND BENTON COUNTIES. THIS TAIL END OF THE LINE MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A STRONG STORM STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE NONEXISTENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SOUTH. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AC3 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS AS CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW FOR OCCURRENCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS ON MONDAY WILL CLEAR MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. JLH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA. TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30 POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS. SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE. STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM MOTIONS. TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE. IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40 TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. CAVANAUGH && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 20 20 WACO, TX 99 75 93 73 96 / 30 30 30 10 20 PARIS, TX 90 69 90 70 86 / 40 20 10 10 30 DENTON, TX 91 73 93 73 91 / 40 30 20 20 20 MCKINNEY, TX 92 70 93 72 91 / 40 20 20 20 20 DALLAS, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 20 TERRELL, TX 95 72 93 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20 CORSICANA, TX 95 73 93 71 94 / 30 30 20 10 20 TEMPLE, TX 97 75 94 72 97 / 30 30 30 10 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 30 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA. TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30 POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS. SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE. STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM MOTIONS. TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE. IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL SHUNTED MORE TO THE WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40 TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS THE ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. CAVANAUGH && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 20 20 WACO, TX 99 75 93 73 96 / 30 30 30 10 20 PARIS, TX 90 69 90 70 86 / 40 20 10 10 30 DENTON, TX 91 73 93 73 91 / 40 30 20 20 20 MCKINNEY, TX 92 70 93 72 91 / 40 20 20 20 20 DALLAS, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 20 TERRELL, TX 95 72 93 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20 CORSICANA, TX 95 73 93 71 94 / 30 30 20 10 20 TEMPLE, TX 97 75 94 72 97 / 30 30 30 10 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 30 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. 79 && .UPDATE... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 82/JLD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 20 20 WACO, TX 77 99 75 93 73 / 5 30 30 30 10 PARIS, TX 74 90 69 90 70 / 40 40 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 75 91 73 93 73 / 30 40 30 20 20 MCKINNEY, TX 76 92 70 93 72 / 30 40 20 20 20 DALLAS, TX 78 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 20 10 TERRELL, TX 78 95 72 93 72 / 20 30 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 76 95 73 93 71 / 10 30 30 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 74 97 75 94 72 / 0 30 30 30 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 93 72 92 71 / 20 30 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY... CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... 5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY... WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY... A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY... KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT BLF AS SHOWERS PASS...DRAWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY 08Z...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER THE VICINITY OF KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 09Z...AND PROGRESS EAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE LINGERING STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR KBCB/KLWB/KBLF. THROUGH THE DAY...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF AS 850MB FLOW IS ZIPPING ALONG AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE EFFICIENT TO MIX IT DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH VFR EAST OF THE RIDGE AND MVFR WEST AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB... ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE. VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY 162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS. RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/RAB SHORT TERM...WERT LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...MBS/NF EQUIPMENT...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY... CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... 5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY... WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY... A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY... STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUB SEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE. VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY 162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS. RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/RAB SHORT TERM...WERT LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...JH/RAB EQUIPMENT...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM OREGON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS ARE MID/HIGH LEVEL (I.E. ABOVE 15,000 FEET). THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK OBSERVED WAS OVER LAKEVIEW, OR AT 12,000 FEET. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS. THE GFS OVER-DID THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER OREGON TODAY. NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVEN TOUGHER TO ASSESS. THE SHORT WAVE LIFT IS VERY WEAK. IF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY UNSTABLE, THE LIFT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, IT DOESN`T LOOK VERY LIKELY FOR ANY THUNDER. THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM DO SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON PDT`S RADAR OVER OREGON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 20,000 FEET ON THIS AFTERNOON`S SOUNDING, I`D BE SURPRISED IF ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE COULD REACH THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW. THE NEW NAM RUN HAS US SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS ONLY WARMS US ABOUT 2 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HEAT ADVISORY ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. RJ && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 67 97 67 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 COEUR D`ALENE 62 94 61 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 PULLMAN 58 97 57 97 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 LEWISTON 69 103 69 103 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 COLVILLE 57 98 57 100 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 SANDPOINT 54 92 54 94 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 KELLOGG 60 92 61 93 62 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 MOSES LAKE 64 102 64 103 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 WENATCHEE 71 102 71 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 OMAK 64 101 65 103 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON AREA. WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA. SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN... WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES. THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE MODEST. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS/TEMPS. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. TUE-THUR... 28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/ NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE REALITY. FRI-SUN... GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S... PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z. A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100. SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM. VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND WILL LINGER 16-17Z. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. && .MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW. THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO. HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR LAYER. GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE. AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES. PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA. PREV DISC: THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION. SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA, ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S, WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS FURTHER N AND E. SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI. ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES... HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU THU/FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG. SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT... SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT 70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
656 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 650 AM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA. BAND OF HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS ROTATING NEWD AS EXPECTED. TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HRRR TIMING IS RIGHT ON. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. PREV DISC: THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z. CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85 THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL TOTALS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70 INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM- REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND 20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS (MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS 5KFT-10KFT. SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE DELTA REGION AND WAS NEAR A VICKSBURG TO TO LOUISVILLE LINE AT 10 AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST THAN IN THE EAST. THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED BUT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WIND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES THERE. /22/ && .AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING SOME LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROVIDING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 17Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 29/10Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT TAF SITES KHKS...KJAN...KMEI AND KHBG. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR AFTER 14Z. /17/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED. WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH 5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE 60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/ LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 91 63 89 63 / 18 5 2 2 MERIDIAN 93 61 90 59 / 19 5 2 2 VICKSBURG 91 61 89 63 / 23 4 2 2 HATTIESBURG 93 67 91 64 / 30 18 4 2 NATCHEZ 90 65 88 64 / 30 12 7 2 GREENVILLE 91 65 87 63 / 10 4 2 2 GREENWOOD 91 63 85 59 / 10 4 2 2 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 22/17/26/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI. A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL THREE DAYS. TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY 3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN LATER FORECASTS. THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS... ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY 16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/ FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ && .PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014... .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTING CEILING OF BKN030 ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXTREME NORTHEAST INCLUDING KCAO THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AFTER SOME BRIEF MID DAY CLEARING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST...CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO BECOME ACTIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. 05 && .PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014... .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD- MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE. DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. KJ && .FIRE WEATHER... FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST... THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN. NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY. THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-526>532. && $$ 41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S). PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60" ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE... TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS... ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY. BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST- FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS. STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO +9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE. RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. 12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BETWEEN 18-21Z. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS... ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY. BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST- FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS. STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO +9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE. RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. 12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BETWEEN 18-21Z. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS... ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY. BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST- FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS. STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO +9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE. PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN. 12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. 12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
622 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. 230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST. S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING. WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING. WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM. ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP. OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION. AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 10 VICTORIA 100 75 101 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 106 79 106 78 106 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALICE 102 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 92 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 103 75 103 73 103 / 10 10 0 0 10 KINGSVILLE 100 74 101 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 10 NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN 6K DECK OF CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO DESERT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105 TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 07-28 110:1980 89:1941 82:1980 55:1892 KFAT 07-29 113:1898 87:1896 78:2003 57:1950 KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975 KBFL 07-28 118:1908 85:1941 84:1931 50:1914 KBFL 07-29 114:1908 87:1965 86:2003 52:1914 KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RILEY AVN/FW...DURFEE SYNOPSIS...BSO WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING- OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100. SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM. VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND WILL LINGER 16-17Z. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. && .MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA. MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN. MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE INCREASED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5 INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S- LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE STRETCH. THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR OFFICE. ROSE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT CONTINUING LATER AT KALS. SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068- 072>089-093-094-097-099. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...ROSE AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW. THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO. HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE 06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089- 093-094-097-099. && $$ UPDATE...28 SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW. THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO. HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR LAYER. GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE. AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089- 093-094-097-099. && $$ UPDATE...28 SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH. WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA. THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS OTHERWISE. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT. GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. OTHERWISE...VFR. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME. THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW LONG TERM... AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...TONGUE/PW HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 338 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 78 63 70 / 20 50 90 90 GCK 64 77 63 69 / 20 40 90 90 EHA 64 78 63 74 / 40 60 90 70 LBL 65 78 63 71 / 40 70 90 90 HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70 P28 66 83 65 70 / 20 40 90 90 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR/GLD LONG TERM...DR/GLD AVIATION...DR/GLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 78 63 70 / 20 50 90 90 GCK 64 77 63 69 / 20 40 90 90 EHA 64 78 63 74 / 40 60 90 70 LBL 65 78 63 71 / 40 70 90 90 HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70 P28 66 83 65 70 / 20 40 90 90 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR/GLD LONG TERM...DR/GLD AVIATION...DR/GLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains to the Canadian boarder. For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km, so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more sunshine. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas, possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night. Thursday brings clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps. Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point. Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a touch below early August norms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE... COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE... DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON... FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE. USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12 GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE NEARBY UPPER LOW AND COOL MID LAYERS ARE CAUSING PLENTY OF STRATO CU THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...THE CIGS ARE VARYING BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4K FEET AGL. A FEW POCKETS OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA... BUT THESE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR AVIATION CONCERNS. LATER TONIGHT THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN A BIT MORE...TO THE 2 OR 2.5K FOOT LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM AT MOST SITES...THOUGH DID ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR BR AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE UP AND SCATTER OUT TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL THE SITES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES. UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES. PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA. PREV DISC: THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES. PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA. PREV DISC: THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85 THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL TOTALS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70 INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM- REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC /OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE VCSH AT CMX TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN HAVE VCSH AT SAW FOR THE LAST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDER/ MAY DEVELOP NEARBY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85 THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL TOTALS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70 INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM- REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND 20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS (MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE VCSH AT CMX TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN HAVE VCSH AT SAW FOR THE LAST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDER/ MAY DEVELOP NEARBY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI. A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL THREE DAYS. TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY 3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN LATER FORECASTS. THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS... ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE BRIEF LULL PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY BUT LOOK FOR RAPID EXPANSION IN SH/TS COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AREAS THAT ARE SUNNIER NOW WILL SEE THIS INITIAL RAPID EXPANSION BUT SH/TS WILL MOVE INTO OTHER AREAS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENTLY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELING...EXPECT SAF/LVS/GUP TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY TS. USING VCTS AT ABQ/AEG/FMN/TCC AND ROW. WILL UPDATE ACCORDING TO DVLPMENT AND RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A LONGER DURATION RAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO CARRYING PREVAILING RAIN AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOMEWHAT TOWARDS LATE EVENING. ALSO LOOKING AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AT MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING GUP/SAF/LVS/TCC AND ROW. CANT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BUT HARD TO PINT POINT RIGHT NOW. VERY ACTIVE PERIOD SO EXPECT UPDATES ACCORDINGLY. SOME OF THE CELLS WILL PRODUCE VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014... .UPDATE... UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. ALSO INCREASED/TWEAKED POPS/QPF FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE LATCHED ONTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING SWINGING NNE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE NE ACROSS MUCH OF NW NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS ALL IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FOR LATE JULY. A LATER START IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S AND 70S. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014... .UPDATE... INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY 16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/ FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ && .PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014... .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD- MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE. DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. KJ && .FIRE WEATHER... FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST... THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN. NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY. THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>515-526>532. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 NO UPDATE NECESSARY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING. WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS. THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS. THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS. THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN CWA. GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN CWA. GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 71 99 73 / - - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD TUE MORNING...STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CRP. BY MID MORNING TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM. ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP. OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION. AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 10 VICTORIA 100 75 101 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 106 79 106 78 106 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALICE 102 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 92 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 103 75 103 73 103 / 10 10 0 0 10 KINGSVILLE 100 74 101 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 10 NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO... VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. DIURNAL CUMULUS WITH BASES 5 TO 7 KFT WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH BY 06Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR TUESDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z. THE GREATER FORCING AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE EAST OF KRST/KLSE BUT A SHOWER/STORM MENTION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE AT KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM....DTJ AVIATION.....ZT