Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/28/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NOT A CLEAR CUT DAY. 12Z SOUNDING HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AT 1.37 INCHES. RIGHT AT THE MOMENT WE CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONTINUED
RECYCLE OF SURGE MOISTURE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL REINFORCEMENT. MID
LEVELS HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DRYING TRENDS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS PER
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GOES WATER VAPOR TRENDS.
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE INCLUDING -7 AT H5 AND WITH THE
MORNING SOUNDING WE CAN STILL MANAGE DECENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN ANTICIPATED FLUCTUATION OF THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS MIGHT ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN MID LEVELS. OVERALL WE MIGHT BE
HEADING TOWARD A LESS BUSY DAY AND A QUICK LOOK AT EARLY SHORT RANGE
MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING 12Z U OF A WRF-NAM AND LATEST HRRR ALL
POINTING TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING. WE
ARE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWN A BIT TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND VALLEY AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST BUT NOT AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY.
THE TIMING ON THE EASTERLY IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
AND NORTHERN SONORA/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS SLOWED A BIT AND COULD NOW
BE MORE OF A FACTOR ENHANCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/16Z.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED -TSRA/
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
+TSRA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF KTUS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AT
8-15K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
GENERALLY ELY FLOW REGIME WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.
SUN...
26/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH SE AZ FROM THE
EAST SUN AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS
TO FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE DEPICTED SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON-FRI...
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO PREVAIL...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.
HIGH TEMPS THRU NEXT FRI FROM TUCSON WWD WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A
DEGREE-OR-TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY. MEANWHILE...DAYTIME
TEMPS EAST OF TUCSON WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/BROST/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE. DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.
00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING. THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS. OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH. THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.
THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL DEPART
MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS ENTERED
A WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS FOCUSED THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA...AND
CNTRL NY-PA BORDER. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/EXTREME WRN NY/OH CORRIDOR
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THOSE AREA.
THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SFC INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AT
KBUF AND KPIT...WITH A POOL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
00Z BUF RAOB HAS AN H850-500 LAPSE RATE OF 7.2C/KM WITH A SBCAPE
OF 1146 J/KG. KALB STILL HAS A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1343 J/KG
WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM.
THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 40 KTS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE
H850-500 LAYER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS INITIALLY...BUT THESE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SFC WAVE...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SEE THE INSTABILITY WANE A BIT... WITH SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE.
AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. A PLUME OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
DAY BREAK.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE 3-KM HRRR IN TERMS
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON THE BASE REF PRODUCT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AND THEN 3 AM TO 6 AM TO THE NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWATS IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE
POPS ARE TRENDED THIS WAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.
THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.
A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ***
845 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.
STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.
MON NIGHT...
BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
- SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
- DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
- POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...
INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.
THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.
*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.
WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.
THURSDAY...
MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.
SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
================================================================
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.
THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.
TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT
TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WATCHING AREA OF QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGH RES SOLNS...DOES NOT EVEN CAPTURE THIS...BUT THE FEW THAT
DO...THE RUC AND HRRR WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE PA/NJ BORDER.
IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT
SCHC/LOW CHC POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WESTERN ZONES IN AN
HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME
WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND
SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL
ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY
CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE
PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE
FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES
NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF
AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR WX
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT.
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON
NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...WITH BETTER CHANCE WEST OF NYC TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWER OR TSTM.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO
15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER
TONIGHT. SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
.TUE-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
717 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WATCHING AREA OF QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGH RES SOLNS...DOES NOT EVEN CAPTURE THIS...BUT THE FEW THAT
DO...THE RUC AND HRRR WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE PA/NJ BORDER.
IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT
SCHC/LOW CHC POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WESTERN ZONES IN AN
HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME
WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND
SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL
ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY
CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE
PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE FROM
CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES
NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF
AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR
WX HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT.
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON
NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR TSTM.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO
15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER
TONIGHT. SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
.TUE-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WATCHING AREA OF QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS ENTERING EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HIGH RES SOLNS...DOES NOT EVEN CAPTURE THIS...BUT THE FEW THAT
DO...THE RUC AND HRRR WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE PA/NJ BORDER.
IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT
SCHC/LOW CHC POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WESTERN ZONES IN AN
HOUR OR SO DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME
WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND
SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL
ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY
CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE
PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE FROM
CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES
NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF
AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR
WX HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT.
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON
NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR TSTM.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO
15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.TONIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.TUE-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS. SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND
GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 78 91 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 80 92 / 10 20 10 30
MIAMI 80 91 79 93 / 10 20 10 30
NAPLES 77 90 77 92 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0
ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 30 30 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 20 60 20 0
GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0
MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 20 0
ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 40 10 0
VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0
ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 20 30 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 10 60 20 0
GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0
MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 40 0
ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 20 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 30 10 0
VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IT WAS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY
WITH COLUMBIA METRO REACHING 100 DEGREES AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PREVENTED ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ARE ONGOING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND ADD
SOME POPS TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A FORECAST 35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR COLUMBIA ON JULY 28 IS 78 COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY OF FALLING...THAT IS IF THE TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT FALL BELOW 78 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. SOME STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20Z MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUE/WED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.
AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS AND SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR DO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THAT REGION...ALONG WITH THE WEAK/STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE PROGGING AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF
THE CWFA...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CLIP
THE NORTHERN ZONES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANY MCS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. MOST OF THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...DO THINK
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. LEANED HARD ON WPC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO N GA
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NW GA BY 06Z-12Z MON AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE FL BORDER BY 12Z
TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH
CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3
TO -7. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO
INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY
2 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN
BORDER BY 12Z MON. SPC AS GA ON DAY 3 IN JUST A SEE TEXT AREA.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUE/WED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
01
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RELATIVELY QUIET TAF PERIOD ON TAP WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP
EXPECTED AT ATL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND
DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTS DURING THE DAY THAT WILL RELAX DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH THE SAME AT OTHER TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOG WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT AHN AND CSG OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
WILLIS/NLISTEMAA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 95 76 91 / 5 10 20 20
ATLANTA 74 93 76 87 / 5 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 67 88 68 80 / 0 20 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 71 93 74 87 / 5 10 30 20
COLUMBUS 76 95 76 92 / 10 10 10 50
GAINESVILLE 73 93 74 87 / 5 10 30 20
MACON 74 95 77 93 / 10 10 10 50
ROME 71 94 74 87 / 0 20 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 72 93 75 89 / 5 10 20 30
VIDALIA 77 95 78 94 / 10 20 10 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...WILLIS/NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLIER AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. CURRENT
MESOANALYIS INDICATES A DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES
NORTH TO 1.8 SOUTH. WEAK NVA PROJECTED FOR OUR FA TODAY AS WEAK
IMPULSE PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING A GENERALLY DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR FA. BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE LATEST HRRR MODEL
GENERALLY RESTRICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF OUR FA. A FEW BRIEF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE FA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS GENERALLY PUTS THE REGION UNDER A FLAT RIDGE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOWER MID-WEST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST
COAST TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS. GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP...WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD MOVE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN SO...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME QUITE PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLIER FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED. VFR EXPECTED TODAY.
WEAKENING FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
227 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1150 AM...LATE MORNING UPDATE...TWO FEATURES OF NOTE LATE THIS
MORNING...A WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS A VERY UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS LINE EXTENDS IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80...
COULD BE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER.
OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING THE WARMING TREND.
WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVELS...A FEW HOURS OF SUN...IF THAT WERE TO
OCCUR...COULD PUSH TEMPS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S...SO
NO LARGE CHANGES TO HIGHS BUT TEMP TRENDS WILL REQUIRE UPDATES.
CMS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY
THIS MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FESTER SOUTH OF I-88 BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND IT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE OVER THE SW U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE OVER WI SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS SLOWLY
TREKKING EAST AND WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER LAKE
MI SUNDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND IT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS. WHILE
THE NAMS 4000+ J/KG OF CAPE SEEMED A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-88. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER...NAMELY WINDS AND HAIL...IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 0-1 KM
SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. SPC MENTIONS A CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES IN THE SAME AREA...BUT THINKING TORNADOES WILL NOT
BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTIVE MODE. HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
ITS COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AT FIRST IN THIS
AREA...MAYBE EVEN SUPERCELLS...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE A LINE
OR STORM COMPLEX SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING.
FINALLY...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS EXPECTING THICK OVERCAST SKIES
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS ALONE...HOWEVER...STILL THINKING WE WILL
EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY. IF CLOUDS THIN...WE
COULD SEE SPOTS REACH 90 DEGREES.
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER LAKE MI
SUNDAY AND WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE PLAINS LOW ALSO WEAKENS
AND MERGES WITH THE CANADIAN LOW...AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER WI. BANDS OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WILL FEEL TEMPS
FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK AND A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. IN GENERAL LOOKING AT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND 80 BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT THINKING STORMS WILL BE VERY DIURNAL. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING A TON OF ACTIVITY...AS THE FORCING SOURCE WILL BE WEAK
VORTICITY STREAMERS THAT TRAVEL AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CHANCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER TSRA
POTENTIAL REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA INTO CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE SFC WINDS INTO TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE
OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
* LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASING IN
STRENGTH. GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COMPLICATED AND RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.
DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
FAR NORTHEAST IL TO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING
RELATIVELY LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...THOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE AT THE TOP/ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE MIXED LAYER. LAKE
BREEZE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY...
THOUGH TDWR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT HAS SLOWED ITS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND MOST HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR INLAND INTO ORD/MDW.
MVFR CIGS HAD DEVELOPED LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF
SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH SOME SCATTERING AND LIFTING
OF THIS LOWEST LAYER OCCURRING PER SATELLITE/SFC OBS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT DRYING AND MIXING ABOVE BASE OF STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS
WILL NOT PERSIST. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION WOULD PROVIDE STRONG CAPPING FOR SURFACE BASED
PARCELS...THOUGH STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IF TAPPED. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT
SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUPPORT FROM RECENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO STRUGGLE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVOLVING EAST
FROM CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX SEEN OVER NORTHERN MO. MOIST LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH. SOME POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SHRA/TSRA AROUND 12Z WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH POOR
DIURNAL TIMING SUGGESTS LOW COVERAGE AT THAT HOUR AND PRECLUDES
MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND STRONGER
FRONT DOES DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING FAIRLY GUSTY NEAR 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTING ORD/MDW THROUGH
PERIOD.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND LOW CIGS TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVE.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY.
WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE TO ARND 30 KT FOLLOWING THE LOW
PASSAGE AND FROPA AND DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION...THE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
INDIANA WATERS AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH WAVES IN THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER WAVES. A NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE ILLINOIS WATERS WILL KEEP WAVES A BIT
LOWER...BUT SHOULD EXCEED 4-5 FT BY THE END OF THE 5NM NEARSHORE
FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS
AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE OVER THE LAKE. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DOWN THE LAKE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP MODEST WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BRING BACK LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW WAVES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...NOON SUNDAY TO 11 PM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...NOON SUNDAY TO 5 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON SUNDAY TO 11
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...NOON SUNDAY TO 5
AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.
Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
120 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1150 AM...LATE MORNING UPDATE...TWO FEATURES OF NOTE LATE THIS
MORNING...A WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS A VERY UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS LINE EXTENDS IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80...
COULD BE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER.
OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING THE WARMING TREND.
WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVELS...A FEW HOURS OF SUN...IF THAT WERE TO
OCCUR...COULD PUSH TEMPS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 80S...SO
NO LARGE CHANGES TO HIGHS BUT TEMP TRENDS WILL REQUIRE UPDATES.
CMS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY
THIS MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FESTER SOUTH OF I-88 BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND IT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE OVER THE SW U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE OVER WI SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS SLOWLY
TREKKING EAST AND WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER LAKE
MI SUNDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND IT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS. WHILE
THE NAMS 4000+ J/KG OF CAPE SEEMED A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-88. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER...NAMELY WINDS AND HAIL...IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 0-1 KM
SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. SPC MENTIONS A CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES IN THE SAME AREA...BUT THINKING TORNADOES WILL NOT
BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTIVE MODE. HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
ITS COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AT FIRST IN THIS
AREA...MAYBE EVEN SUPERCELLS...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE A LINE
OR STORM COMPLEX SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING.
FINALLY...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS EXPECTING THICK OVERCAST SKIES
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS ALONE...HOWEVER...STILL THINKING WE WILL
EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY. IF CLOUDS THIN...WE
COULD SEE SPOTS REACH 90 DEGREES.
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER LAKE MI
SUNDAY AND WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE PLAINS LOW ALSO WEAKENS
AND MERGES WITH THE CANADIAN LOW...AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER WI. BANDS OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WILL FEEL TEMPS
FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK AND A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. IN GENERAL LOOKING AT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND 80 BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT THINKING STORMS WILL BE VERY DIURNAL. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING A TON OF ACTIVITY...AS THE FORCING SOURCE WILL BE WEAK
VORTICITY STREAMERS THAT TRAVEL AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CHANCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER TSRA
POTENTIAL REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA INTO CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE SFC WINDS INTO TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE
OF LAKE BREEZE AND SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
* LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASING IN
STRENGTH. GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COMPLICATED AND RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.
DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
FAR NORTHEAST IL TO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING
RELATIVELY LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...THOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE AT THE TOP/ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE MIXED LAYER. LAKE
BREEZE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY...
THOUGH TDWR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT HAS SLOWED ITS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...AND MOST HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR INLAND INTO ORD/MDW.
MVFR CIGS HAD DEVELOPED LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF
SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH SOME SCATTERING AND LIFTING
OF THIS LOWEST LAYER OCCURRING PER SATELLITE/SFC OBS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT DRYING AND MIXING ABOVE BASE OF STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS
WILL NOT PERSIST. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION WOULD PROVIDE STRONG CAPPING FOR SURFACE BASED
PARCELS...THOUGH STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IF TAPPED. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT
SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUPPORT FROM RECENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO STRUGGLE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVOLVING EAST
FROM CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX SEEN OVER NORTHERN MO. MOIST LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH. SOME POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SHRA/TSRA AROUND 12Z WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH POOR
DIURNAL TIMING SUGGESTS LOW COVERAGE AT THAT HOUR AND PRECLUDES
MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND STRONGER
FRONT DOES DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING FAIRLY GUSTY NEAR 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTING ORD/MDW THROUGH
PERIOD.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND LOW CIGS TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVE.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SUMMERTIME IS UPCOMING OVER THE LAKE BUT FIRST
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. WINDS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH IN INDIANA AND
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
FOR TEMPORARY AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE
EASTWARD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION ENVELOPING THE LAKE BY LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE WATER WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TO GALE
STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD
WHERE THEY WERE WITH THE LAST COOL ADVECTION EPISODE EARLIER THIS
WEEK /WEDNESDAY/...BOTH OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND NEARSHORE AREAS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN MIDWEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Update the forecast to include the mention of severe thunderstorms
possible late this afternoon sw counties and across area this evening.
SPC has moderate risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
evening across central IL except slight risk over Stark, Marshall
and northern Knox counties. Has 5% risk of tornadoes, 30% risk of
large hail (10% risk of 2 inch or larger hail) and 45% risk of
damaging wind gusts.
Also trended pops lower through early afternoon and higher late
this afternoon and evening. Most of central IL has been dry so far
this morning. Low clouds have spread into nw counties by late
morning and this may limit heating and instability. Kept highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon heat indices peaking
from 95 to 103F, lowest north of Peoria where more low clouds found.
A frontal boundary over NW IL and near the IA/MO border will press
se into central IL later this afternoon and tonight and collide
with an increasingly unstable airmass with CAPES projects to
surpass 3000 j/kg and bulk shear rising to 40-50 kts by 00Z/7 pm.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg
CAPE as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and
climbing temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts
northward. Warm front expected to be northeast and east by midday
as the cold front and actual low center makes its way into the
region. As similar situations have set up over the fa recently,
trouble will be fighting the cap in place for much of the day...
and the approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only
the front itself but models have persisted with a couple waves
moving into the region. Major issues with this are beginning to
show their hand this morning as the locations of the waves this
morning on sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations
as many of the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for
storms, and the triggers are there, but timing and exact locations
of impact are troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the
early evening with the proximity of the cold front and the low
itself...but cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its
location should it not progress further north, storms crossing the
boundary could also be impacted by the turning of the winds for
the front. Once the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are
indicative of rapid development of storms. Once going, the very
high CAPE values remain in place well into the evening up to 06z.
Best directional shear is actually in place for the late
afternoon/early evening lending itself to supercells in the
beginning of the event...transitioning to more of a wind event
with time. Large hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells
and long sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than
15k ft. Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof
both outflows and frontal boundaries.
LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES MADE. SLOWLY INTRODUCED LOW 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT AND STOUT (IA/NRN MO/WS IL) EML. THIS EML APPEARS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON 12Z DVN/ILX/OMX RAOBS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN EXCESS OF 100F. THIS MAY DELAY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROGGED TO POSSIBLY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND
STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN
CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN
EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL
CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER
1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN
IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND
STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS
CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID
REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW
LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER
CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES
SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS
TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH
RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN.
THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO
MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF
CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION
VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN
M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH
EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION
WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY
POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING
STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME
1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN
ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST
IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST
OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500
MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY.
PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HIGH END MVFR/LOW VFR STRATO CU CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE VICINITY. WARM PROFILE ALOFT LIKELY TO
KEEP THE TERMINALS CONVECTION FREE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
CONVECTION INVOF REMNANT MCV AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FIRE ACROSS
MO INTO WC IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO IN/OH LATER TONIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE/OB TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE WORST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1123 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES MADE. SLOWLY INTRODUCED LOW 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT AND STOUT (IA/NRN MO/WS IL) EML. THIS EML APPEARS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON 12Z DVN/ILX/OMX RAOBS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN EXCESS OF 100F. THIS MAY DELAY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROGGED TO POSSIBLY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND
STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN
CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN
EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL
CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER
1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN
IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND
STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS
CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID
REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW
LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER
CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES
SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS
TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH
RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN.
THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO
MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF
CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION
VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN
M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH
EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION
WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY
POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING
STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME
1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN
ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST
IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST
OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500
MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY.
PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AS UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEERS SUSPECT NERN IL INTO WCNTL IN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR JUST AFTER
DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME
3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO TSRA
TIMING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S TODAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR CHANGES MADE. SLOWLY INTRODUCED LOW 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT AND STOUT (IA/NRN MO/WS IL) EML. THIS EML APPEARS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON 12Z DVN/ILX/OMX RAOBS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN EXCESS OF 100F. THIS MAY DELAY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROGGED TO POSSIBLY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND
STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN
CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN
EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL
CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER
1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN
IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND
STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS
CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID
REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW
LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER
CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES
SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS
TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH
RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN.
THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO
MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF
CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION
VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN
M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH
EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION
WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY
POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING
STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME
1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN
ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST
IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST
OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500
MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY.
PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AS UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEERS SUSPECT NERN IL INTO WCNTL IN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR JUST AFTER
DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME
3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO TSRA
TIMING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S TODAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND
STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN
CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN
EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL
CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER
1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN
IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND
STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS
CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID
REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW
LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER
CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES
SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS
TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH
RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN.
THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO
MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF
CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION
VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN
M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH
EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION
WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY
POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING
STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME
1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN
ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST
IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST
OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500
MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY.
PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AS UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL JET VEERS SUSPECT NERN IL INTO WCNTL IN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR JUST AFTER
DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME
3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPO TSRA
TIMING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
453 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS COINCIDENT WITH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STOUT EML BEGINNING TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN ARC
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IA-NWRN IL-FAR WCNTL IN. VEERING JETLET AND
STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF SHRA TO TARGET ONLY FAR SWRN/SRN
CWA THIS AM. LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EASTERN
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WITH EASTERN
EXTENT INTO CWA. SMALL CHC TSRA POPS IN DEFERENCE TO SHORT MODEL
CONSENSUS AFFORDED ACROSS ERN CWA THIS AFTN AS RIDGE OF GREATER
1000-850MB THETA-E/MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ASSERTS INTO NERN
IN/NWRN OH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG DECAYING AM SHRA AND
STRATO/ALTOCU LAYERS AND PRESENCE OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL LIMB LENDS
CREDENCE TO TREND OF OUTCOME/SOLUTIONS SEEN WITH 3KM HIGH-RES RAPID
REFRESH RUC IN THIS REGARD. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW
LOW END MENTION TO SUFFICE THROUGH TODAY. BY FAR THE GREATER
CONVECTIVE CONCERN LIES UPSTREAM AS EXTREME SERN SASK VORTEX DRIVES
SEWD INTO NRN MN EARLY TONIGHT WITH 60-70KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WAVE. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS
TO IMPINGE ON AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/HEATING BENEATH
RESIDUAL EML TO OFFER STRONG 3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE BY 00 UTC SUN.
THIS LARGE INSTABILITY POOL PRESENTS ELONGATED E-W FROM SWRN CWA TO
MO/IA BORDER AMID 40-50 KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE EPISODIC EVENING/EARLY NIGHT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK INTO SRN HALF OF
CWA AND TRANSITION TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN STRONG PARALLEL STORM MOTION
VECTORING. MDPI GT 1 AND DECENT /1000-1250 J/KG/ CAPE WITHIN
M10-M30C HAIL PRODUCTION ZONE WITH FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
10.5-11.5 RANGE SUGGESTIVE OF MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS/ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL RISKS. DIFFICULTY IN SHARP DEMARCATION OF POPS WITH
EXTREMELY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC MENTION
WARRANTED FAR NRN CWA RAMPING TO SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE LIKELY
POPS/SEVERE MENTION GENERALLY ALONG/S OF ROUTE 30 IN 00-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING/TRAILING
STRATIFORM CONVECTION IN 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
BACK DUE WESTERLY...ALONG/PARALLEL TO TRAILING POOL OF EXTREME
1000-850MB MIXING RATIO GTE 16 G/KG THAT REACHES BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL. WILL ADDRESS TERTIARY FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO IN
ADDITION TO DMG WIND/HAIL CONCERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
PROVENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES UP TO 4.0 TO 5.0 M2/S2 REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK BEST
IN THE MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. CONCERN FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EARLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SIGNATURE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A POST FRONTAL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE REST
OF THE PERIOD DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 500
MB ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY.
PREFER THE COOLER GFS/MEAN/MEX VALUES GIVEN COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HAVE REMOVED VCSH AT KSBN IN LIGHT OF LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH GRADUAL VEERING OF 925-8H JETLET
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME ISOLD SHRA STILL POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD ARC
OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CONVERGENCE FROM IA/CNTL IL/SWRN
IN...VEERING OF JETLET TOWARD LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND
NWRLY COMPONENT STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS GREATEST PROBABILITY TO
REMAIN WELL W/SW/S OF NRN INDIANA RESPECTIVE WITH TIME THROUGH
DAYBREAK. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR JUST
AFTER DARK AS KS FRONTAL WAVE LIFTS INTO CNTL IL AMID LARGE/EXTREME
3500-5000 J/KG SBCAPE POOL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING
NOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
ALL OF THIS RAISES QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT IS OCCURRING
SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT ARE WEAKENING WITH
TIME BUT NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. SATELLITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF ACCAS AND RAP TRENDS INDICATES THE FORCING
WEAKENING OVER TIME. ADD TO THAT THE MORNING SOUNDING BEING QUITE
DRY ABOVE 800MB BRINGS DOUBTS ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES...THE MORNING
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL IA WERE HEADED EAST INTO THE CWA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
TO THE GRIDS PLANNED. WE WILL BE DOING AN 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON
LAUNCH FOR THE SEVERE RISK.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA ON THE NOSE OF A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED WHICH IS PREVENTING A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IA AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
NW IL TO THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN MO. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT AND COVERED MUCH OF OUR NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR SW CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
THE CWA BEFORE 6 AM SO WE WILL HAVE A DRY MORNING. LAMP DATA
SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCATTERED.
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 OR SO TODAY.
THIS WILL SET UP A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CLOSE TO 80 WHILE IN OUR FAR SOUTH READINGS SHOULD
PUSH TO AROUND 90. WITH DEWPOINTS IN OUR SOUTH RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER (OR LACK OF) WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE READINGS
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...WHERE READINGS WERE NOT AS WARM AS I EXPECTED.
SEVERE WEATHER...SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK IN OUR 4 SE COUNTIES WITH
A SLIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE.
THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER AND GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL
CERTAINLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST AND
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS AND
CAPES BUT NONETHELESS SBCAPES SHOULD EASILY REACH 4000 J/KG IN OUR
SOUTH. HOW FAR NORTH THE SEVERE THREAT IS REALIZED WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS INTENSIFY MID
LEVEL WINDS TO 50+ KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTH
AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
CONGEAL INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
THIS EVENING AS IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FLASH FLOODING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WITH HIGH PWAT`S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN IN
A SHORT TIME. SOME OF THE RIVERS ALSO SHOWED A RAPID RESPONSE TO
THIS HEAVY RAIN BUT ARE STILL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE
UPPER 60S SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH
CWA EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWERING
HUMIDITY. PCPN CHANCES THUS DIMINISHING WITH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ONSET OF SUBSEQUENT COOL...DRY ADVECTION... BUT STILL HELD ON TO
SMALL PCPN CHANCES FAR NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SAGGING SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OVER WI.
MON-FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OUT
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AREA LOCKED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND
ALSO DRIER WITH LIMITED MEASURABLE RAIN PROSPECTS...WITH POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW PM SHOWERS MAINLY LATE WEEK AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO UNDERGO GRADUAL
MODIFICATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
03Z/27. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH TSRA MOST NUMEROUS IN
THE 21Z/26 TO 02Z/27 TIME FRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA. AFT 03Z/27 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.
THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO. HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE 12Z TAF. IN THE SHORT TERM...TSRA OVER NW
IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KFOD AND KMCW FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREAT. DROPPED TS FROM
KDSM TAFS AS IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF METRO AREA.
LEFT TSRA IN KOTM TAFS...BUT STORMS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KOTM AS
WELL. WILL...OF COURSE...BE MONITORING AND UPDATING THROUGHOUT
DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
841 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT ARE WEAKENING WITH
TIME BUT NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. SATELLITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF ACCAS AND RAP TRENDS INDICATES THE FORCING
WEAKENING OVER TIME. ADD TO THAT THE MORNING SOUNDING BEING QUITE
DRY ABOVE 800MB BRINGS DOUBTS ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES...THE MORNING
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL IA WERE HEADED EAST INTO THE CWA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
TO THE GRIDS PLANNED. WE WILL BE DOING AN 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON
LAUNCH FOR THE SEVERE RISK.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA ON THE NOSE OF A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED WHICH IS PREVENTING A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IA AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
NW IL TO THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN MO. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT AND COVERED MUCH OF OUR NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR SW CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
THE CWA BEFORE 6 AM SO WE WILL HAVE A DRY MORNING. LAMP DATA
SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCATTERED.
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 OR SO TODAY.
THIS WILL SET UP A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CLOSE TO 80 WHILE IN OUR FAR SOUTH READINGS SHOULD
PUSH TO AROUND 90. WITH DEWPOINTS IN OUR SOUTH RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER (OR LACK OF) WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE READINGS
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...WHERE READINGS WERE NOT AS WARM AS I EXPECTED.
SEVERE WEATHER...SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK IN OUR 4 SE COUNTIES WITH
A SLIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE.
THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER AND GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL
CERTAINLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST AND
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE NAM SEEMS TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS AND
CAPES BUT NONETHELESS SBCAPES SHOULD EASILY REACH 4000 J/KG IN OUR
SOUTH. HOW FAR NORTH THE SEVERE THREAT IS REALIZED WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS INTENSIFY MID
LEVEL WINDS TO 50+ KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTH
AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
CONGEAL INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
THIS EVENING AS IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FLASH FLOODING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WITH HIGH PWAT`S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN IN
A SHORT TIME. SOME OF THE RIVERS ALSO SHOWED A RAPID RESPONSE TO
THIS HEAVY RAIN BUT ARE STILL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE
UPPER 60S SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VIGOROUS COMPACT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH
CWA EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWERING
HUMIDITY. PCPN CHANCES THUS DIMINISHING WITH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ONSET OF SUBSEQUENT COOL...DRY ADVECTION... BUT STILL HELD ON TO
SMALL PCPN CHANCES FAR NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SAGGING SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OVER WI.
MON-FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OUT
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP AREA LOCKED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND
ALSO DRIER WITH LIMITED MEASURABLE RAIN PROSPECTS...WITH POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW PM SHOWERS MAINLY LATE WEEK AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO UNDERGO GRADUAL
MODIFICATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
CNL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR I-80 TODAY.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF I-80 WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.
THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO. HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BUT THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL CREATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL
FOR KDSM AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR QUICK HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH
WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UPDATE AT 18Z
SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE/MORE DETAILS ON DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.
THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO. HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
CIGS ARE MESSY ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NE AND
LOWER VFR CIGS ACROSS THE N AND HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. A
SOUPY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
09Z-12Z OR SO AND COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE ISOLD.
ADDITIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY
KOTM AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR TSRA AFT 20Z
OR SO.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM FRI JUL 25 2014
COMPLEX SCENARIO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO IA.
COOLER AIR ALOFT COULD WEAKEN THE CAP AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
WRN/NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORM ALREADY ONGOING
IN CEN/ERN NEB AND SDKTA MAY MERGE AND DRIFT INTO NRN IA WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS BUT IS PRETTY MEAGER ON QPF.
THE HOPWRF AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST SOME SORT OF MCS PUSHING INTO NW/NRN
IA THOUGH THAT LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE. STILL...WITH THE 4 INCH
RAINFALLS IN LOCATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT AND THE SOUPY DEWPOINTS STILL
IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE UPDATE I
WILL LIKELY EXPAND TSRA INTO NRN IA TOWARDS 12Z. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS FAR SRN/SE IA WHERE A WARM FRONT IS RESIDING AND PRETTY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FEEDING INTO A LLJ OF 30KTS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL THOUGH ODDS GO WITH THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE BETTER LOCATION FOR
STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME FOG TO DEAL WITH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF IOWA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT EAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FORM THE LOW BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH TONIGHT.
SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN NE WITH WEAK BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA DID NOT ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH TODAY AS
ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALSO LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. THEREFORE...WILL DROP
HEAT ADVISORY FOR REMAINING PORTION...LOCATIONS IN THE OLD ADVISORY
AREA MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...BELOW CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...HAVE DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS
THE CWA AND HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST. SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE AREA NEAR 12Z...THOUGH MODELS KEEP SYSTEM FURTHER
WEST...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR END OF PERIOD.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF IA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE LITTLE NWD
PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...DO NOT SEE A STRONG CHANCE OF
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH IA IA WILL KEEP IN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...LEANING TOWARD THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE OF NAM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITS STRENGTH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
CIGS ARE MESSY ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NE AND
LOWER VFR CIGS ACROSS THE N AND HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. A
SOUPY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
09Z-12Z OR SO AND COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE ISOLD.
ADDITIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY
KOTM AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR TSRA AFT 20Z
OR SO.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$ UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD
INCLUDE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. NEAR TERM MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND ALL SUGGEST A MUCH COOLER
START TO THE WEEK THAN THE PAST WEEK.
CWA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THE RIDGE POSITION...PERIODS OF ASCENT
ACROSS WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP AS NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES AND PERSISTENT WEAK WAA REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY MID
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT DURING THE PERIOD AND WITH ELEVATED CAPE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THINK WE WILL SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO ADD SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO WX TIMING AS
THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCED
ASCENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
PATTERN AM NOT EXPECTING LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD...ABOUT 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED(TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SIMILAR PATTERN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS H5
RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST. GEFS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A HIGH PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING
HOW FAR NORTH/EAST PRECIP SHIELD WILL GO. STILL THINK BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWA SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HERE. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KGLD. KEPT
VCTS MENTION IN KGLD TAF FOR THIS EVENING...AND LEFT MENTION OUT
OF KMCK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR
LINGER LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER I FELT MOST CONFIDENT WITH THE
EVENING PERIOD AT THIS POINT. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15KT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTH...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH FRONT SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 AND 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN JET FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. DESPITE THE LACK OF FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT
ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.6 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN
MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AREA WIDE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 330
AND 350 K ARE STILL PLENTY TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG
FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT
ABOUT NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KGLD. KEPT
VCTS MENTION IN KGLD TAF FOR THIS EVENING...AND LEFT MENTION OUT
OF KMCK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR
LINGER LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER I FELT MOST CONFIDENT WITH THE
EVENING PERIOD AT THIS POINT. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15KT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTH...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH FRONT SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD. LOOKING AT RUC
SOUNDINGS FOR TRIBUNE THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ABOVE
700MB...WITH A BULLS EYE OF NEAR 1500J/KG OF CAPE JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO LINE IN EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY DRIFTS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
END AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY
SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW).
STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND
THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER
CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST
FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE
CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND
DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET.
DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS
AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER
INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 AND 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN JET FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. DESPITE THE LACK OF FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT
ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.6 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN
MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AREA WIDE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME SURFACE CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 330
AND 350 K ARE STILL PLENTY TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG
FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE A BIT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT
ABOUT NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KMCK
SITE. AM THINKING THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SOUTH OF KGLD WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS OFF. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD. LOOKING AT RUC
SOUNDINGS FOR TRIBUNE THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ABOVE
700MB...WITH A BULLS EYE OF NEAR 1500J/KG OF CAPE JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO LINE IN EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY DRIFTS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
END AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY
SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW).
STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND
THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER
CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST
FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE
CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND
DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET.
DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS
AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER
INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE SUN-MON
TIME FRAME...WHICH THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPS DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EARLY ON
WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHEN THE EC/GFS
BOTH GENERATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THE FLOW.
THE PRESENCE OF A CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE WEEK
WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 22-25C RANGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS. THE
COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KMCK
SITE. AM THINKING THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SOUTH OF KGLD WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS OFF. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.
Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.
The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.
The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.
As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.
Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.
Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
In the wake of a frontal passage today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. At KCGI/KPAH northwest winds AOB 10 knots
will continue through the period. At KEVV/KOWB northwest winds at
10-12 knots gusting up to 18 knots will subside to AOB 10 knots
around sunset, then back to gusty northwest winds after 15Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
256 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
All evidence points to the cap (see ILX and DVN 18Z RAOBS)
holding strong across the area late this afternoon and tonight.
The lone exception may be along the I-64 corridor, where a
complex of thunderstorms may push rapidly eastward generally in
the 01Z-05Z timeframe this evening.
The HRRR is still unable to generate a larger-scale bowing system,
as seen on some of the shorter range models this morning. The 12Z NAM
and GFS soundings show some weakness at times in the mid-level
flow across our north, so the overall organization of any storms
that develop may not be as significant as previously thought.
Individual storm cells may have enough 0-3KM SRH to support
rotating updrafts and would not be surprised to see some
supercells initially, where storms can develop this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be possible, and a few
tornadoes can not be ruled out with any individual cells this
evening. However, figure the cap will suppress any activity that
tries to dip south of I-64, or possibly even into our northern-
most counties.
The mid-upper 70 dewpoints have descended upon the region as expected,
and heat indices have reached triple digits over much of the area.
Already issued a Special Weather Statement for the heat. It should
subside by 7 PM, and would be surprised to see values above 105,
so will not be issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.
Overnight, the models struggle to generate much, if any,
convection over our region, so will keep PoPs at 30% or less.
The cold front will move through the region Sunday, and the low
to mid 70 dewpoints and temperatures well into the 90s are
expected ahead of it over the southeast 2/3 of the area in the
afternoon. This could lead to heat indices near today`s levels,
and a righteous airmass for strong to severe thunderstorms to feed
on. Winds ahead of the front will be nearly due west, and quite
strong, pushing Lake Wind Advisory levels, especially east of the
Mississippi River. The veered winds result in only weak
convergence along the boundary, so thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be widely scattered to scattered, with better coverage
later in the day along the Tennessee border. Certainly cannot rule
out a few severe storms mainly over west Kentucky and southwest
Indiana. The consensus of guidance is that most if not all of
the convective activity will shift south of the area by early
Sunday evening.
Will have a dry forecast for the entire area overnight Sunday
through Monday Night. A deep trough over the Great Lakes and
northeast will keep the area in strong northwest flow aloft
through the period. North winds will bring much cooler and drier
air into the region through the period, as well.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
Above medium confidence in the extended.
High pressure aloft will be firmly in place over west with a
persistent upper level trough over the east. This will place in a
much drier northerly flow in the fronts wake. This will also result
in unseasonable low RH reading for most of the upcoming week. By the
end of the week the upper level trough deepens and even suggest a
cut off upper low forming the lower Tennessee Valley Friday into the
weekend. This will allow for at least daytime storm chances mainly
in the afternoon with max heating...but could not rule out some
activity into the evening hours.
Temperatures will much cooler than normal through the extended with
lower to middle 80s for the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
The main concern to aviation for this forecast cycle is the
potential for a complex of severe storms with damaging winds
pushing rapidly east southeast through KEVV and possibly KOWB this
evening and possibly overnight. At this time, forecast confidence
is quite low in this evolution, and there is a real possibility
that the storms will stay north and east of the terminals. Will
not insert TS in the TAFs at this time, as there should be ample
time to add it into the forecast when it becomes more obvious its
going to happen.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A relatively shallow boundary layer will allow temperatures warm
into the lower 90s over most of the area as expected this
afternoon. However, it will also trap the low-level moisture, and
allow mid 70 dewpoints to overspread the region through the
afternoon. This will create heat indices in the 100 to 105 range
over most of the region. Will likely issue an SPS for the heat in
the next hour.
As for severe weather, SPC has just pushed the southern edge of
their moderate risk northward, right along our northern border in
southern Illinois. There is a whole lot of uncertainty in the
convective evolution to support a moderate risk into our area.
The latest HRRR runs have been developing convection near the STL
metro area around 00Z, presumably near the MCV that is currently
over northwest Missouri. The HRRR then pushes the convection east
southeast along our northern border areas in the 02Z-05Z timeframe.
It has not shown any signs of a larger-scale bowing MCS/derecho,
like the 00Z WRF runs were advertising.
If storms do push into our area this evening, damaging winds will
be the primary concern, with large hail and tornadoes lesser
concerns. Of course, there is a real possibility that this evening
activity could stay completely north of our forecast area. There
could be some convection firing over the Evansville Tri State into
the overnight hours, if an outflow boundary pushes into that area.
Damaging wind would be the primary concern overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
Biggest forecast challenge this period is on how to deal with
MCS development this afternoon and possibly again early tonight.
Much of the meso-convective models this morning point to rapid
destabilization this afternoon as surface temperatures soar into
the 90s and dew points climb into the upper 60s to near 70. Thing
is, most of the region should remain under thermal capping until
later in the day. MCS development is likely to occur over se IA and
west central MO this afternoon, then propagate ese toward the I-70
and I-64 corridors late in the day as the capping weakens. There is
some question as to whether this initial convection will brush by
just to our north or actually clip the I-64 corridor of IL/sw IN.
Given the extreme instability expected and decent wind fields
aloft, what convection does form later today has a very good
chance of being severe at times, with damaging wind gusts, large
hail and even isolated tornadoes possible. Even if this initial
convection/MCS misses our forecast area, additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along its outflow boundary early this
evening and into the night.
Cold front enters the scene late tonight into Sun AM, and will
likely be located somewhere near the OH River by noon. Depending on
the degree of heating that can occur along ahead of this front,
more strong thunderstorm development could occur in areas along
and south of the OH River Sunday afternoon. Should finally clear
out Sunday night behind the sfc front as much cooler and drier air
flows back into the region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A very tranquil week is coming up for the region next week. By 12Z
Monday, the upper level wave and associated sfc front will be in the
eastern Great Lakes region and will continue to move off the eastern
seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. During the week, our region will be under
the influence of a large trough across the eastern half of the
country, with amplified ridging taking place out west. Models bring
a weak lobe of energy southward across the area on Monday, but it
should only result in some passing clouds, as moisture is limited.
The 00Z NAM/GFS hints at a possible shower to two in parts of
southwest IN where moisture might be a little better, but will leave
dry for now. However, the bigger story to start out the week, will
be the below normal temperatures.
High pressure from central Canada will migrate south/southeastward
toward us early next week and bring a much cooler/drier airmass into our
region. While we will see much cooler temperatures on Monday as
compared to the projected weekend heat, the coolest air will likely
take until about Tuesday to arrive. This means that we should
experience another few degree drop in temperatures then, with some
places likely only reaching the upper 70s for highs. Guidance
numbers have been rather consistent for the past few days so no real
changes to temperatures needed right now.
With high pressure influencing the weather through at least
Thursday, we should expect a mainly rain free forecast with
temperatures moderating back into the low to mid 80s by mid to late
week. Northwest flow can be tricky with regards to figuring out if
there could be any decent chances for rain, but moisture will
definitely be limited to just the lower levels. By Thursday night
and into Friday though, the sfc high breaks down and deeper moisture
advects into the area. This increase in moisture, along with a lobe
of energy pivoting down in the northwest flow aloft, could mean some
chances convection by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
The main concern to aviation for this forecast cycle is the
potential for a complex of severe storms with damaging winds
pushing rapidly east southeast through KEVV and possibly KOWB this
evening and possibly overnight. At this time, forecast confidence
is quite low in this evolution, and there is a real possibility
that the storms will stay north and east of the terminals. Will
not insert TS in the TAFs at this time, as there should be ample
time to add it into the forecast when it becomes more obvious its
going to happen.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A relatively shallow boundary layer will allow temperatures warm
into the lower 90s over most of the area as expected this
afternoon. However, it will also trap the low-level moisture, and
allow mid 70 dewpoints to overspread the region through the
afternoon. This will create heat indices in the 100 to 105 range
over most of the region. Will likely issue an SPS for the heat in
the next hour.
As for severe weather, SPC has just pushed the southern edge of
their moderate risk northward, right along our northern border in
southern Illinois. There is a whole lot of uncertainty in the
convective evolution to support a moderate risk into our area.
The latest HRRR runs have been developing convection near the STL
metro area around 00Z, presumably near the MCV that is currently
over northwest Missouri. The HRRR then pushes the convection east
southeast along our northern border areas in the 02Z-05Z timeframe.
It has not shown any signs of a larger-scale bowing MCS/derecho,
like the 00Z WRF runs were advertising.
If storms do push into our area this evening, damaging winds will
be the primary concern, with large hail and tornadoes lesser
concerns. Of course, there is a real possibility that this evening
activity could stay completely north of our forecast area. There
could be some convection firing over the Evansville Tri State into
the overnight hours, if an outflow boundary pushes into that area.
Damaging wind would be the primary concern overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 733 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
Biggest forecast challenge this period is on how to deal with
MCS development this afternoon and possibly again early tonight.
Much of the meso-convective models this morning point to rapid
destabilization this afternoon as surface temperatures soar into
the 90s and dew points climb into the upper 60s to near 70. Thing
is, most of the region should remain under thermal capping until
later in the day. MCS development is likely to occur over se IA and
west central MO this afternoon, then propagate ese toward the I-70
and I-64 corridors late in the day as the capping weakens. There is
some question as to whether this initial convection will brush by
just to our north or actually clip the I-64 corridor of IL/sw IN.
Given the extreme instability expected and decent wind fields
aloft, what convection does form later today has a very good
chance of being severe at times, with damaging wind gusts, large
hail and even isolated tornadoes possible. Even if this initial
convection/MCS misses our forecast area, additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along its outflow boundary early this
evening and into the night.
Cold front enters the scene late tonight into Sun AM, and will
likely be located somewhere near the OH River by noon. Depending on
the degree of heating that can occur along ahead of this front,
more strong thunderstorm development could occur in areas along
and south of the OH River Sunday afternoon. Should finally clear
out Sunday night behind the sfc front as much cooler and drier air
flows back into the region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A very tranquil week is coming up for the region next week. By 12Z
Monday, the upper level wave and associated sfc front will be in the
eastern Great Lakes region and will continue to move off the eastern
seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. During the week, our region will be under
the influence of a large trough across the eastern half of the
country, with amplified ridging taking place out west. Models bring
a weak lobe of energy southward across the area on Monday, but it
should only result in some passing clouds, as moisture is limited.
The 00Z NAM/GFS hints at a possible shower to two in parts of
southwest IN where moisture might be a little better, but will leave
dry for now. However, the bigger story to start out the week, will
be the below normal temperatures.
High pressure from central Canada will migrate south/southeastward
toward us early next week and bring a much cooler/drier airmass into our
region. While we will see much cooler temperatures on Monday as
compared to the projected weekend heat, the coolest air will likely
take until about Tuesday to arrive. This means that we should
experience another few degree drop in temperatures then, with some
places likely only reaching the upper 70s for highs. Guidance
numbers have been rather consistent for the past few days so no real
changes to temperatures needed right now.
With high pressure influencing the weather through at least
Thursday, we should expect a mainly rain free forecast with
temperatures moderating back into the low to mid 80s by mid to late
week. Northwest flow can be tricky with regards to figuring out if
there could be any decent chances for rain, but moisture will
definitely be limited to just the lower levels. By Thursday night
and into Friday though, the sfc high breaks down and deeper moisture
advects into the area. This increase in moisture, along with a lobe
of energy pivoting down in the northwest flow aloft, could mean some
chances convection by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 733 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2014
Will be in warm sector during this TAF period. A complex of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over IA/IL and move east
southeast toward the I 64 region aft 21z. Could brush KEVV/KOWB
late in the day or during the evening, but confidence not high
enough at this time to mention explicitly in TAFS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO
DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.
FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY TO BRING SOME
MORE CLOUDINESS INTO REGION ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME THICKER CLOUDS
IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THESE REGIONS. THE PRECIP
CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL(POPS) TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENCE
OF THE NAM12 AND RAP MODEL. DECIDED ON 20% FOR ISOLATED WORDING
FOR SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS IS NOT THE IMPRESSIVE
W/LIS NO LESS THAN -2 TO SBCAPES OF 300 TO PERHAPS 500 J/KG. THE
IS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0+C/KM THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM ABOUT 850-700MBS PER THE SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY CANADA.
ALL IN ALL ONE MORE FAIR WEATHER DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE START OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RAINY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MARCHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT IN TOW. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE PINE TREE STATE AS A SERIES OF LOWS DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWS IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, BOTH DAYS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL; MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME; EXACTLY WHEN IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST MODELS. THEREAFTER, THE REGION LOOKS TO BE UNDER A VERY
NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR
DRY WEATHER, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY.
AFTER A COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK, WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY MVFR
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN HZ/BR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY,
THOUGH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MVFR COULD STILL STRIKE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. VFR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE
HOLD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SOUTH FLOW IS PROGGED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD.
WHILE WNAWAVE LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE (8-10 FT), WAVES AROUND 6 FEET
SEEM REASONABLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.
MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.
UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.
MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.
MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND SHRTWV RDG
AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO MN/NW ONTARIO FM CENTER OF HIER HGTS OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SLOW INFLUX OF MOISTER AIR IN THE GENERAL
SW FLOW BTWN SFC/H85 HI OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MSLP
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LO IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT IS RIDING OVER THE RDG CENTERED IN THE SRN ROCKIES
HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS/A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA TDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN HAS BEEN WELL TO
THE SW CLOSER TO SHARP H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HI STABILITY SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND
ESPECIALLY THE GRB RAOB...WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP INVRN ARND H75...HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
IMPACTED UPR MI. OVER THE ERN CWA...VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z APX RAOB HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SUNSHINE. BUT TO THE W...MORE
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NE MN/WRN LK SUP IN AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E
ADVCTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER
ARND CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT EWD PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE NRN
PLAINS IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AS
WELL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW IN NE MN AND A FEW
TS...THE POTENTIAL OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT HIER MID LVL
STABILITY DEPICTED BEST ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...TO SPREAD W-E INTO
UPR MI WITH AREA OF POSITIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN THAT WL LIFT PWAT UP
TO ARND 1.5 INCHES/AXIS OF SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW TRACKING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR
NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THE POPS LATER EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS A 2ND SHRTWV MIGHT FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS. FCST
LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER THE W LATE INDICATES THE DRYING WL
OVERCOME ANY PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. GOING FCST
POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NEED ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING LATE...DVLPG LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMP FALL.
SAT...ANY LINGERING MRNG SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NE CWA WL END WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF THAT WL DEPRESS PWAT TO 0.75-1.0 INCH/DNVA
AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING
2ND SHRTWV. WITH MRNG LO CLDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND FCST
H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 17-18C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LKS. GIVEN THE MID LVL DRYING/POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING AND NEAR
ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES...PREFER THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS...AT LEAST OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS...MAINLY THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL CNDN MODEL...DO INDICATE
THIS DAYTIME HEATING WL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE ERN CWA IN
THE AFTN WITH CONVERGING LK BREEZES OFF LKS SUP/MI UNDER SOMEHWAT
LOWER HGTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DLPMNT OF THESE LK
BREEZE SHOWERS/TS WL BE THE DRYING ALF THAT IS FCST TO MIX TO THE
SFC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...DEEP MIXING ON THE GFS/NAM
FCST SDNGS HINT SFC DEWPTS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF COULD MIX OUT AS
LO AS 45-50 LATE IN THE DAY...WITH KINX DROPPING TO 15-20. THE NAM
FCST SDNG FOR NEWBERRY AT 18Z SHOWS SBCAPE ARND 2K G/KG FOR SFC T/TD
OF 75/65. PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS FCST FOR SFC T/TD OF
75/60 AND SBCAPE CLOSE TO 700 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITATION OF THE
LARGE SCALE DRYING...WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LK BREEZE CNVGC.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014
COOL SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 7-10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE COOLEST DAYS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW
AND COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY
WILL END UP AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS PER THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS.
BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
MOVES ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE OCCURS AS THE INITIAL STRONG SFC-H85 COLD FRONT
IS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST WILL THE
RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALSO IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA. SI/S BARELY BUMP BLO ZERO AND THAT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE WI
BORDER. HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED JUST TO NORTH OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TRACK...MAINLY 09Z-21Z SUNDAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT ARE
LIMITED TO A CHANCE AT BEST. UNLESS THE STORMS FORM EARLIER SATURDAY
EVENING WHEN DEEP SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS AND MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THERE WOULD BE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SFC BASED TSRA SUNDAY AFTN. ATTM THOUGH LI/S BLO ZERO ARE
FORECAST TO STAY OVER WI AS STABLE COOL RAINY NORTH FLOW SHUNTS THE
GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPS MORE ALONG LK
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. POINTS
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN U.P. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES AT
LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGIN.
SHOULD NOTE THAT THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL
INCREASE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES OF LK SUPERIOR MQT TO GRAND MARAIS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THE AIR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR
HIGHER...WOULD NEED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK
EITHER FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. ULTIMATELY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH IN THE VCNTY COUPLED WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCTD
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING AFTN AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS RESULT IN LESS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO LESS DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT POINT.
EXPECT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE DURING THE AFTN
FAR INLAND TO PUT KEEP SMALL TSRA CHANCES AS WELL WITH THE SHRA. MEAN
WINDS FM NORTH TO SOUTH RESULT IN GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST DAYS
FARTHEST INLAND FROM THE MODERATION/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE AND BACK
TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE
TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE
EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION
DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS
ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE.
CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND
SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN
OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO TE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER. THEN
LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AREA
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND INCREASE/BECOME
GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.
KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DROPS
MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE MORNING. S-SW
WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND GUSTY DURING
THE DAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE
TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE
EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION
DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS
ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE.
CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND
SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN
OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LIFR FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MN EARLIER THIS MORNING
WAS GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITION TO RETURN BY MID MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY TOGETHER WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME
COVERAGE WILL BE TO SCARCE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
KMSP...
MVFR/LIFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT THE SITES SURROUNDING KMSP...BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SHORTLY. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCARCE. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE
TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE
EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION
DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS
ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE.
CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND
SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN
OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TODAY CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
KMSP...
IN ADDITION TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THICK FOG OR LOW STRATUS AT KMSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Primary concern continues to be convective trends for this evening.
Current trends are pointing more and more toward there being less
severe weather in our CWFA than previously expected, with the
primary threat for severe storms further north/northeast in
southeast IA and central IL. A broad area of showers and stratiform
rain associated with an MCV which is spinning its way across the
state is putting the kibosh on much of the instability which was
forecast for late this afternoon/evening. A limited ribbon of very
high CAPE (MLCAPE in excess of 3500-4000 J/Kg) remains over extreme
northeast MO into southern IA and a much larger area of high CAPE
over central and southern IL. Storms are already rumbling just
north of our CWFA in southern IA and west central IL and I would
expect these areas of storms to continue to develop and strengthen.
Still cannot rule out severe storms from Kirksville to Quincy and
southeast to Litchfield and possibly Salem...but the probability
seems to be much lower than previously expected.
After the evening severe weather threat has passed, there is still
the possibility that there could be additional development
overnight. RAP and NAM both show moderate moisture convergence at
850mb ahead of the front and generate QPF in response. Have left
chance/slight chance PoPs going for most of the area through the
night. The wind shift associated with the approaching cold front
should be sliding into the northern 1/3 of our CWFA between 09-12Z
with drier low level air trying to nose in. This should effectively
cut off the chance for additional precip in those areas in the
pre-dawn hours.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
The cold front is expected to push through early Sunday morning. A
minimal rain threat will exist during the morning near it, with a
dry afternoon on tap behind it. The cooling effects will not be
felt too much early on, with another warm day expected: max temps
still look to top 90 degrees for most areas near and south of I-70.
The big difference will be lower humidity from today, however.
After Sunday, an extended dry period is forecast as a deep longwave
upper TROF sets up over eastern North America with a stout NW flow
aloft for our region. This usually means either dry, or surprise
hit-and-run systems this time of year, but almost always means below
average temps. For now, am going with dry until Thursday, with low
PoPs thereafter as a system works its way down into our region and
stays for a bit.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Primary concern is thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Expecting the precipitation over west central/centra MO to
continue to move eastward. It is unclear yet how much these storms
will strengthen/expand, but some strong wind gusts and hail are
possible with this complex as it moves eastward. Another area of
concern will be in northeast MO/west central IL later this
afternoon/this evening where a complex of severe thunderstorms is
expected to develop and should move rapidly east-southeast. Wind
gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail will be possible with
this cluster. Still some uncertainty on the exact track of the
thunderstorm complex, though the most likely parts of the area to
be affected will be along and north of a line from KIRK to KSLO.
Afterthe storms move through this evening, expect VFR flight
conditions. A cold front will move through early Sunday morning
shifting the wind to the west-northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Primary concern at Lambert is the possibility of thunderstorms
early this evening. Current thinking is that the storms over
central/west central Missouri may not affect the terminal, but a
cluster of severe thunderstorms will develop over northern
MO/southern IA and race east-southeast. Think the best threat for
storms will be north of Lambert along and north of a line from
KIRK to KSLO. After storms clear the area this evening expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail. A cold front will pass through the
terminal early Sunday morning which will shift the wind to the
northwest.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Franklin MO-
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Warren MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Clinton IL-Madison
IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Primary concern continues to be convective trends for this evening.
Current trends are pointing more and more toward there being less
severe weather in our CWFA than previously expected, with the
primary threat for severe storms further north/northeast in
southeast IA and central IL. A broad area of showers and stratiform
rain associated with an MCV which is spinning its way across the
state is putting the kibosh on much of the instability which was
forecast for late this afternoon/evening. A limited ribbon of very
high CAPE (MLCAPE in excess of 3500-4000 J/Kg) remains over extreme
northeast MO into southern IA and a much larger area of high CAPE
over central and southern IL. Storms are already rumbling just
north of our CWFA in southern IA and west central IL and I would
expect these areas of storms to continue to develop and strengthen.
Still cannot rule out severe storms from Kirksville to Quincy and
southeast to Litchfield and possibly Salem...but the probability
seems to be much lower than previously expected.
After the evening severe weather threat has passed, there is still
the possibility that there could be additional development
overnight. RAP and NAM both show moderate moisture convergence at
850mb ahead of the front and generate QPF in response. Have left
chance/slight chance PoPs going for most of the area through the
night. The wind shift associated with the approaching cold front
should be sliding into the northern 1/3 of our CWFA between 09-12Z
with drier low level air trying to nose in. This should effectively
cut off the chance for additional precip in those areas in the
pre-dawn hours.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
The cold front will extend from northeast Illinois to around St.
Louis into northern Oklahoma at 12z and should exit the CWA by
early afternoon as the upper low/trof moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes. The precipitation threat will be considerably lower
Sunday morning ahead of the front and I don`t expect to see much.
Increasing northwesterly winds will usher drier and cooler air
into the region during the afternoon in the wake of the front. The
large surface high will settle into the Nation`s midsection on
Monday and then become a dominant feature into midweek as a deep
upper trof persists over eastern NOAM. Below average temperatures
will prevail throughout next week.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Primary concern is thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Expecting the precipitation over west central/centra MO to
continue to move eastward. It is unclear yet how much these storms
will strengthen/expand, but some strong wind gusts and hail are
possible with this complex as it moves eastward. Another area of
concern will be in northeast MO/west central IL later this
afternoon/this evening where a complex of severe thunderstorms is
expected to develop and should move rapidly east-southeast. Wind
gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail will be possible with
this cluster. Still some uncertainty on the exact track of the
thunderstorm complex, though the most likely parts of the area to
be affected will be along and north of a line from KIRK to KSLO.
Afterthe storms move through this evening, expect VFR flight
conditions. A cold front will move through early Sunday morning
shifting the wind to the west-northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Primary concern at Lambert is the possibility of thunderstorms
early this evening. Current thinking is that the storms over
central/west central Missouri may not affect the terminal, but a
cluster of severe thunderstorms will develop over northern
MO/southern IA and race east-southeast. Think the best threat for
storms will be north of Lambert along and north of a line from
KIRK to KSLO. After storms clear the area this evening expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail. A cold front will pass through the
terminal early Sunday morning which will shift the wind to the
northwest.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 77 90 66 81 / 40 20 0 5
Quincy 71 84 61 77 / 70 10 5 10
Columbia 74 89 62 81 / 20 10 0 5
Jefferson City 75 89 63 81 / 20 10 0 5
Salem 73 90 63 79 / 60 30 0 5
Farmington 75 91 61 80 / 20 30 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Franklin MO-
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Warren MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Clinton IL-Madison
IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the
going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are
warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to
track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through
much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through
at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3
degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but
with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as
103.
The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to
redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable
environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added
precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability
for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the
threat of severe weather is low.
The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering
northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast
area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving
around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern
Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though
is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can
build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this
system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However
broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across
northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either
the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern
Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.
Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.
The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.
By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
The ongoing showers/storms in the area should move east of the
terminals within an hour or two of issuance. The focus then shifts to
what the storms in northeastern Nebraska will do. On their current
path, they should stay to the northeast of the terminals and possibly
move through northern/northeastern Missouri. Latest guidance suggest
this line will weaken/erode as it begins to build into the area
though. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still but confidence
is higher that this developing complex will not impact the terminals.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
037-043-053.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
A MCV over northeastern Kansas is throwing a few wrinkles into the
going forecast. First, cloud cover is limiting how quickly we are
warming up so far this morning and with the bulk of the MCV yet to
track over the area it seems thicker cloud cover will persist through
much of today. This will continue to hold back temperatures through
at least early this afternoon. To account for this, have lowered
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees/ hr which resulted in about a 2 to 3
degree decrease in max temperatures. Dewpoints are tracking well but
with lower temperatures heat indices are now around 100 to as warm as
103.
The second concern is that this MCV will allow convection to
redevelop ahead of it. This is already occurring with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms being triggered in the unstable
environment due to forcing from the MCV. Have increased or added
precipitation chances across mainly the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area to account for this. While there is ample instability
for this convection, shear is very weak at this point in time, so the
threat of severe weather is low.
The other item we`re watching is intense convection entering
northeastern Nebraska that is on a trajectory towards the forecast
area. This area seems to be mainly driven by a shortwave moving
around western ridge. It`s possible this area may move into northern
Missouri later this afternoon/early this evening. The question though
is if the stronger shear helping to sustain that convection can
build further south as well. The HRRR has started indicate this
system moving into the area but decreasing in strength. However
broader scale models and mesoanalysis show shear increasing across
northern Missouri so there appears to be some potential for either
the ongoing convection or new convection to develop across northern
Missouri and potentially become severe later this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
The main weather concerns for this forecast package will reside in
the first 24 hours. The first of the concerns today will revolve
around the heat. The second concern will revolve around
precipitation chances late this afternoon into tonight and the
severe potential surrounding them.
Looking at 850mb temperature this morning and models continue to
range between 24C-28C. Providing we can mix up to that layer that
will yield highs in the 90s. However, there are a couple of caveats
(other than mixing) to this temperature forecast. The first is cloud
cover. There is a complex of thunderstorms currently heading east
across central Kansas. As this complex moves across central and into
eastern Kansas it is forecast to weaken as the LLJ veers. Of some
concern however is that some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR/RAP hold it together long enough to move into our local area
providing from additional cloud cover. As such have lowered
temperatures a degree or two. However, heat indices should still
reside in the 102-107 range across the western CWA where a heat
advisory is in place from 1PM to 8PM. The second caveat will be the
potential for storms and what time they will initiate. The first
possibility is that one mentioned previously where thunderstorms
across Kansas move east and refire this afternoon. The second
scenario would be thunderstorms developing this evening along a cold
front which is currently extending from north central Iowa into
extreme northwestern Missouri and into northern Kansas. In either
scenario, strong instability will be in place with 2500-3500J/Kg of
CAPE will be available, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and
strong shear. As such storms that do develop will have the potential
to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats.
The cold front will be forced through the forecast area tonight as
an unseasonably strong upper trough moves from south central Canada
into the Upper Midwest. This will continue thunderstorm chances into
the night time hours.
By Sunday morning the front will shift south of the area. Northwest
flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s on
Sunday. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Sunday
night. This will bring another round of cooler July air to the area
Monday through Wednesday as the upper level flow remains out of the
northwest. Expect highs during this period to range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase on Thursday
and Friday as the medium range models depict the potential for upper
shortwaves moving through the area on continued northwest flow.
Precipitation during this timeframe as well as northwest flow will
keeps highs below normal in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VFR conds will continue the TAF period with sct-bkn high clouds
through the afternoon. The main concern for aviators will come this
evening as a cold front approaches and thunderstorms develop out
ahead of it. Models continue to develop thunderstorms east of the
terminals so have not included a VCTS mention in the TAF at this time
however did introduce sct cu btn 4-5kft this evening. The winds will
be out of the SW around 10kts at today becoming light and variable
this evening as the front approaches. FROPA will occur btn 03Z-05Z
with winds shifting to the north btn 5-10kts behind the front.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-
037-043-053.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...
A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.
IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...
GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINED LATE IN THE EVENING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE LEADING COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TENDED TO HEAD TOWARD THE BETTER MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES TOWARD UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND JUST
WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME PARAMETERS STILL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE VARIES FROM DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA ON THE RAP MODEL...A STARK CHANGE FROM AFTERNOON RUNS...TO
STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
THE GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE KGSO 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...UPDATED
TAFS TO BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN CONDITIONS...BUT LEFT STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH A GUSTY WIND GIVEN CONTINUED
INSTABILITY...SURFACE WINDS REMAINING GUSTY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE WEST...AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN EVOLVING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
AND RADAR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.
TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.
ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
053>056.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...
A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.
IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...
GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY...
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES ARE SLOWLY LIFTING/
DISSIPATING WITH HEATING. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS...HOWEVER ALSO NOTED A
DRY LAYER BETWEEN H6-H7 AND DRY ABOVE H5...ALONG WITH W-NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE
CURRENT LOW CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE TO SHALLOW- TO PERHAPS SOME
MODERATE CU THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDING ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIF UPDATES THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY... SHEARED S/W
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS MORNING... RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE
WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...COINCIDENT WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES
TODAY AS FORCING WILL OTHERWISE BE CONFINED TO VERY SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND 20M FROM YESTERDAY AND
DESPITE SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM BOTH S/W MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH SLOW LIFTING/DISSIPATION OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG
ANTICIPATE WE SHOULD REACH FULL SUN READINGS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEAN TIME...PIEDMONT TROUGH
BISECTING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN UP.
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A MCS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS CONVECTIN DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER...OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HINTED BY THE
LATEST EC AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...A MODIFIED EML LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LAPSE RATES OF
7.25-7.50 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT COULD
LARGE HAIL. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NW.
DEEP MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 21C WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MIXING WILL DROP DEWPOINTS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT TO THE EAST
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE
RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE 100-103. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MON/MON NIGHT: FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE PROPELLED TOWARDS THE REGION AS A UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST...WITH STRONG 40-60M HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG
INSTABILITY (~1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS PROBABLE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY...
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
MOISTURE AND ULTIMATE COVERAGE...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM
WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOR PRECIP AND ULTIMATE SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH) AND POSSIBLY MORESO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE ALL THE PARAMETERS WILL
LINE UP THE BEST. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. ALL OF THIS
WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION... MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL LIFT AND DISPERSE TO MVFR AOA 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
BY 16Z. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT IS
LOW...LIKELY LIMITED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRWI.
LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY (IN THE NORTHWEST) INTO MONDAY...
PARTICULARLY MONDAY (ESPECIALLY EAST). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...NP/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
SHEARED S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS MORNING...
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...COINCIDENT WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES
TODAY AS FORCING WILL OTHERWISE BE CONFINED TO VERY SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND 20M FROM YESTERDAY AND
DESPITE SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM BOTH S/W MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH SLOW LIFTING/DISSIPATION OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG
ANTICIPATE WE SHOULD REACH FULL SUN READINGS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEAN TIME...PIEDMONT TROUGH
BISECTING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN UP.
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A MCS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS CONVECTIN DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER...OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HINTED BY THE
LATEST EC AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...A MODIFIED EML LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LAPSE RATES OF
7.25-7.50 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT COULD
LARGE HAIL. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE IN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NW.
DEEP MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 21C WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MIXING WILL DROP DEWPOINTS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT TO THE EAST
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THE
RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE 100-103. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MON/MON NIGHT: FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE PROPELLED TOWARDS THE REGION AS A UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST...WITH STRONG 40-60M HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG
INSTABILITY (~1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS PROBABLE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY...
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
MOISTURE AND ULTIMATE COVERAGE...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM
WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOR PRECIP AND ULTIMATE SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH) AND POSSIBLY MORESO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE ALL THE PARAMETERS WILL
LINE UP THE BEST. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. ALL OF THIS
WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION... MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL LIFT AND DISPERSE TO MVFR AOA 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
BY 16Z. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT IS
LOW...LIKELY LIMITED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRWI.
LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY (IN THE NORTHWEST) INTO MONDAY...
PARTICULARLY MONDAY (ESPECIALLY EAST). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A LOW SHIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HAVE EXPANDED DENSER CLOUD COVER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TO MATCH GOING TREND. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO MATCH THE GOING
TREND OF LIGHT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG WITH HIGH-RES MODEL
OUTPUT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LCL
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATER TONIGHT...MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WORKS IN
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
HRRR MODEL SO FAR CORRECTLY FORECAST SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE NORTH...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. KMOT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF -SHRA AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A 1003MB SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WYNYARD SASKATCHEWAN...DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.
AS A RESULT...THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH TIME. ATTACHED
TO THE LOW IS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MINOT AND GARRISON...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO
GLEN ULLIN AND HETTINGER. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...INCLUDING TODAYS DATA...THE MET/NAM WIND GUIDANCE IS
WEAKER THAN THE MAV/GFS. THE LATEST RAP13 AND ECMWF FAVORS THE
LOWER END OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS ULTIMATELY SUGGESTS A WEAK
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO MORE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE FORECAST DATA WITH HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS IT REMAINS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AS WINDS
INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING TO COMPARE ACTUAL VERSUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND
OF CLOUDS ARCING INTO WILLISTON AND MINOT BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. THE NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OVER THE NORTH...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AND CONTINUED/REFINED
WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/WINDY/WET CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY WEATHER
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELD/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME HINT PER RAP13 THAT SHOWERS
WILL ENTER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AT THE LAST MINUTE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE INTO A LARGE HUDSON BAY
TROUGH SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US ONLY A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS POSSIBILITY LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BASICALLY DRY AND WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
25KT AND 35KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE BY 02Z
SUNDAY. ALSO...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SAG INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN/KMOT FROM
16Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SRN NC ZONES AND INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. MANY REPORTS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED OF TREES BLOWN DOWN AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE
ORGANIZING IN A PREFRONTAL AREA OF STEEP MLVL LAPSE RATES AND HAVE
TAPPED INTO DCAPE VALUES OVER 1100 J/KG. THERE EXISTS A HIGH AMOUNT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT THE STORMS HAVE MORPHED OUT SUPERCELL
MODE...WITH LOSS OF MLCAPE AND INCREASING LLVL CIN. THERE IS ANOTHER
LINE OF COLD POOL CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NRN TN AND THIS AREA
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TN...THEN
CROSS THE GSP CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HYDRO ISSUES ARE BECOMING
A CONCERN AND WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FFG
EXCEEDANCE...WITH RATIOS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 40-50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ERN SMOKIES AND THE BALSAMS. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED INTO
THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE MIN TEMP GRID. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP
ACROSS THE CURRENT MCS TRACK.
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH
THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL
OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF
AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP
EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND
JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD
POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG
LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E
HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS
AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF
THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY
THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN
/DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST
THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE
EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT
W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...
DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN
THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL
SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP
CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL.
A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL
PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE
FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...
TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF
OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING
SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING.
AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO
WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW
MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR
MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND
POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE
OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM
OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z
THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL
ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY
THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA.
ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND
PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW.
EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS
PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE
MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN TN ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURE AS THEY APPROACH
THE SMOKIES AND NRN MTN SPINE COUNTIES. STILL...THERE IS ENUF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG COLD POOL
OUTFLOWS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE FHILLS TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL COUNT ON THE PREFRONTAL TROF
AXIS TO WARRANT A POP INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP
EAST ACROSS THE NC ZONES FROM 08Z THROUGH DAYBREAK.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVEC REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
SEVERE ACROSS ERN TN AND SE/RN KY. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN KY AND A FEW TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY MRX AND
JKL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED A PREFRONTAL TROF WITH A -8 C H5 COLD
POOL...SOME DISCREET CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN FORMING...WITH A LONG
LASTING TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO SW VA. LOW LEVEL THETA/E
HAS INCREASED THE MOST ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES THE PAST COUPLE HRS
AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH
THE NEXT UPDATE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 40 KTS JUST WEST OF
THE CWFA ATTM...HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHEAR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
MTNS AFT 22Z. THUS...THE ATMOS WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT AS THE CONVEC ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FCST GRIDS WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND T/TD. WILL STILL CARRY
THE DMG WIND AND LG HAIL MENTION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...STILL EXPECT THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER OUR AREA TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRE-FRONTAL/DISCRETE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF JKL MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. SEVENTY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST SUITE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG/COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION OFTEN
/DOES NOT CARE/ ABOUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BLAST
THROUGH THE FHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEGUN TO STEP INTO HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE
EVENING...OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND W RATHER STOUT
W/NW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WHERE
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...
DESPITE FALLING THICKNESSES...DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A POP FORECAST JUST A SHADE BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OF A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWD INTO SC/GA. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACRS THE INLAND SOUTH. HIGH LLVL RH IS NOTED ON GFS/NAM IN
THE COLD-ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE MTNS...REMINISCENT OF THE COOL
SEASON. THE MOIST LAYER IS SO SHALLOW ONLY THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
H7 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL RESTRICT DEEP
CONVECTION TUE AFTN...BUT THE MAJOR MODELS VARIOUSLY STILL DEVELOP
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FA. BY WED THERE IS LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN...BUT THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION WEAKENING AS WELL.
A GREATER PROPORTION OF GUIDANCE PRODUCES QPF IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN RECENT POST-FRONTAL
PERFORMANCE. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES I WILL
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST. THUS NO QPF IS IN THE
FCST FOR WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...
TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM TUE TO WED. MIN TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WED MRNG WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL REMAIN IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
AMOUNT OF DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FCSTS...ITS LOOKING LESS CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER FLOW WILL COMPLETELY CUTOFF THE TROF AND ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS ABOUT HALF
OF THE MEMBERS COMPLETELY CUTTING THE TROF OFF AND HALF MAINTAINING
SOME DEGREE OF TROFFING.
AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THURS AS BNDRY LYR FLOW REMAINS NLY TO
WEAK AND VRB. BY EARLY FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VEER THE FLOW
MORE FROM THE EAST TO NE AND MOVE A LARGE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR
MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
COUPLED WITH UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF THE UPPER TROF AND
POSSIBLY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IF IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...WILL IMPROVE
OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW WILL COUNT ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM
OF CURRENT MTN MCS ACTIVITY AND WILL GO GO WITH A TEMPO TSRA AFT 02Z
THRU 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE/FRONTAL TROF SCHED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL
ARND 08Z OR SO. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENUF TO OFFSET A VSBY
THREAT ARND DAYBREAK. LOW END WIND GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN FROPA.
ELSEWHERE...THE NC TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BOUTS OF VCTS AND
PERHAPS PREVAILING TSRA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WITH ANY NEARBY OUTFLOW.
EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFT 03Z THEN PICK BACK UP AS
PREFRONTAL TROF WORKS INTO THE AREA ARND 06Z THROUGH 09Z. NO EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITE AS BL WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG. LOW END GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE
MIDDLE OF MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCING EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NEARLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF EACH HOUR
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EVEN MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE
DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE IN HENRY AND BENTON
COUNTIES. THIS TAIL END OF THE LINE MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
STRONG STORM STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE NONEXISTENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SOUTH.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VICINITY TYPE COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD
END BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT.
AT KTUP...VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT AND END BEFORE SUNRISE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AREAWIDE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FEW
CUMULUS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY...ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
.DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW BELOW 105F DEGREES. THEREFORE
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED.
CURRENT COLD FRONT NOW NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE LINES WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING
SOUTH...USHERING IN DRIER AIR. OUT AHEAD CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING
ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ON SATELLITE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOW CROSSING THE
OZARKS...WITH PLENTY OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE SPARK`S OFF NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH DUE TO THE PAST MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCY. IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE THE BEST DYNAMICS LIES ACROSS THE EAST
THIS EVENING.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO REFLECT THESE OVERNIGHT
CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VICINITY TYPE COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD
END BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT.
AT KTUP...VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT AND END BEFORE SUNRISE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AREAWIDE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FEW
CUMULUS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY...ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW BELOW 105F DEGREES. THEREFORE
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED.
CURRENT COLD FRONT NOW NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE LINES WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING
SOUTH...USHERING IN DRIER AIR. OUT AHEAD CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING
ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ON SATELLITE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOW CROSSING THE
OZARKS...WITH PLENTY OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE SPARK`S OFF NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH DUE TO THE PAST MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCY. IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE THE BEST DYNAMICS LIES ACROSS THE EAST
THIS EVENING.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND HWO TO REFLECT THESE OVERNIGHT
CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN IS AFTERNOON TSRA POTENTIAL. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE BUT PREDOMINATELY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A WARM
LAYER OF AIR AROUND FL060. BEST CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP APPEARS NEAR MKL AFTER 21Z. BASED
ON 12Z NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOWED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP...
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS AT MEM...BUT DIALED BACK THE START TIME TO 22Z
AND REDUCED CB COVERAGE.
GRADUAL /AROUND 2 HOUR/ VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR PREVAILING
AREAWIDE IN THE DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...THOUGH
THUNDER HAS ENDED AS MORE STABLE AIR MASS WORKING IN. CLEARING
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH...THOUGH CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE U P. CIGS WITH THESE CLOUDS
VFR. WILL MONITOR TAFS TO ADD IF THEY STAY TOGETHER AS MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WI. NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL
CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE SUN DESCENDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WHILE SCT CLOUDS WERE CARRIED AT THE TAF
SITES...COULD SEE SOME BKN PATCHES OF VFR OR HIGHER MVFR CLOUD...
BUT PREDICTING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF SUCH WOULD BE DIFFICULT.
THIS IS A MORE OPTIMISTIC-SIDED FORECAST...BUT IF MVFR CLOUD
/BKN020-030/ PATCHES BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE VIA SATELLITE...WILL
UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF REDUCTION OF CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR OR
MVFR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING
AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR THOUGH NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY. SHOULD SEE GOOD
FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45
KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP
WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NEB. COOL OUTFLOW
SHOWERS IN MID LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STRINGING EAST ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE KRST/KLSE
AIRFIELDS...BUT MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT KRST FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COMPLEX SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST SO CONFIDENT IT
WILL MISS KLSE. STILL...LOW CLOUD LINGERING IN THE WEAK FLOW
ENVIRONMENT KEEPING INVERSION IN PLACE. DO FEEL THE LOWER CLOUD
WILL MIX OUT ONCE THE SHOWER AREA PASSES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A NICE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA NEAR WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND
INTO WI BY SUNDAY. DESPITE MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STRONG
FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FORCE STORMS
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT WILL PERHAPS BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE UPPER
SYSTEM EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MANIFEST AS CLOUD AND GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND VORT MAX APPROACH. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST POPS MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND.
THERE IS A NICE POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF CLOUDS UP STREAM...SO
LOOKS LIKE SUN MAY BE LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS
OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF
RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.
BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.
NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
MARINE...
COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
749 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45
KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP
WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR
BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH
26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE
AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER
26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH 26.22Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR
BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH
26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE
AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER
26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH 26.22Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY
PROBLEMATIC. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE BEING SENT NORTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES. EVEN SOME
DRIZZLE HAS FORMED...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AS EXPECTED IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN WITH TOB NOW VFR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ANTICIPATING THAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO RST...
CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS GO VFR. HOWEVER...THIS
SAME CLEARING MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY BR TO DEVELOP...
WHICH IS NOTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. AT LSE...IT APPEARS THE CLEARING MAY TAKE LONGER TO
GET THERE...THUS HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS PLAN OF CONDITIONS
CLIMBING TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ITS POSSIBLE LSE DROPS TO IFR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AFTER 13Z...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 10000 FT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
911 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAINED
CONFINED MOSTLY TO PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT PROMPTED BOTH SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
A COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE OF THE FIRST STORMS TO DEVELOP
WAS OVER NORTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY...
WHICH BECAME SEVERE AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES.
AT ANY RATE...THE STORMS THAT MARCHED ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTY
FROM NEW MEXICO MADE IT AS FAR AS EXTREME NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY
AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CATALINAS...BUT DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE CURRENTLY SPILLING
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST PIMA
COUNTY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS. SO FAR NOT
MUCH DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...STORMS
CONTINUE FROM NEAR TOMBSTONE SOUTHWARD TO HEREFORD AND NACO AND JUST
SOUTHWEST OF BISBEE. THESE STORMS CONTINUE INTO NORTHEAST SONORA.
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY WILL SPREAD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE
REMNANT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...WESTERN
GRAHAM COUNTY AND EASTERN PINAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST IN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PHOENIX AREA.
I INHERITED 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PIMA COUNTY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. FOR NOW I
THINK I WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT FOR AREAS THAT ALREADY GOT
HIT...SUCH AS GRAHAM AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...BUT LEAVE THE REST
"AS IS". AFTER MIDNIGHT I HAVE BASICALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TYPE
POPS GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH WNW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL
THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER 29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4
TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM
STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS.
STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).
THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE. DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.
00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING. THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS. OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH. THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.
THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.
SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.
A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN. THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH. H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS. THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.
THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.
A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.
TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.
01
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1952 69 1984 76 1993 60 1911
1981
KATL 103 1952 73 1984 77 1993 63 1977
1926 1986
1896
KCSG 101 1952 74 1984 78 2010 65 1994
KMCN 104 1986 74 1984 78 1986 63 1897
1952
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 102 1999 69 1984 76 2010 60 1925
1915
KATL 98 1986 68 1984 78 1896 61 1936
1980
KCSG 102 2010 76 1984 79 2010 65 1957
1986
KMCN 103 1986 74 1984 76 2010 62 1920
2008
1958
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 103 1999 71 1916 76 1931 59 1936
KATL 99 1999 62 1936 78 1915 59 1936
1986 1896
1980
KCSG 104 1986 74 1997 78 2011 66 1997
1981 2010
KMCN 105 1986 68 1936 77 1931 61 1936
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 91 65 86 / 20 30 10 0
ATLANTA 77 88 66 84 / 30 30 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 79 58 78 / 40 30 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
COLUMBUS 77 92 68 88 / 20 60 20 0
GAINESVILLE 74 87 64 83 / 30 30 10 0
MACON 77 94 68 89 / 10 60 20 0
ROME 74 87 63 84 / 30 30 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 89 63 85 / 20 40 10 0
VIDALIA 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 60 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE
SINCE 0Z VERSION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW
FOR KGLD WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST THEN
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS FOR KMCK WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.
Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.
The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.
The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.
As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.
Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.
Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
In the wake of a frontal passage earlier today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. Northwest to north winds AOB 10
knots will continue through the period at KCGI/KPAH, but at
KEVV/KOWB expect northwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight, gusty
northwest winds between 15-01Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 01Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWRD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.
WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 70 92 69 88 / 30 10 0 10 30
MLU 93 66 90 65 87 / 30 10 0 10 30
DEQ 90 64 88 64 83 / 20 10 0 20 50
TXK 92 67 89 66 86 / 20 10 0 10 50
ELD 92 65 89 65 85 / 20 10 0 10 50
TYR 93 71 92 71 90 / 30 10 0 10 30
GGG 93 70 92 69 89 / 30 10 0 10 30
LFK 95 73 93 71 92 / 30 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.
WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 71 91 68 88 / 30 20 0 10 10
MLU 92 67 89 64 87 / 30 20 0 10 10
DEQ 89 64 85 63 83 / 20 10 0 0 30
TXK 91 67 88 65 86 / 30 20 0 0 20
ELD 91 67 86 64 85 / 30 20 0 0 10
TYR 92 71 91 70 90 / 30 20 10 10 20
GGG 92 70 91 69 89 / 30 20 10 10 20
LFK 94 73 92 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
320 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH
MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO
WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE
FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.
FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1239 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1235 AM UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHWRS AND PSBLY AN EMBDD TSTM
ACRS ECENTRAL NH WEAKENING BUT SLOWLY DRIFTING E. MADE SOME ADJ
FOR POPS TO COVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...OTRW LOWERED
POPS ELSWHR OVER ERN AND OVER THE WATERS. HRRR SHOWS NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO ROATE NEWD ARND 11Z AND THEN NEWD IN SRN/WRN ME BY
14Z. HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL SO THIS TIMING IS ACCEPTED.
MADE SOME SIG ADJ TO POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. ALSO PUT IN
WORDING FOR HVY DOWNPOURS AND GSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
AS INDICES INICATE SOME STG TSTM ACTVTY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE FA
TODAY.
PREV FCST:
PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.
USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS SLIDES TO THE S. THERE
MAY BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH OCNL LOWER VSBYS THRU SUNRISE AT
IWD WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON MON
AFTN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A -SHRA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVNG WITH
THE APRCH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LLVLS WL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE VFR WX EVEN IF A -SHRA
IMPACTS ANY OF THE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.
WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.
COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/
&&
.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 63 89 63 / 18 5 2 2
MERIDIAN 94 61 90 59 / 19 5 2 2
VICKSBURG 93 61 89 63 / 17 4 2 2
HATTIESBURG 96 67 91 64 / 26 18 4 2
NATCHEZ 93 65 88 64 / 26 12 7 2
GREENVILLE 91 65 87 63 / 16 4 2 2
GREENWOOD 91 63 85 59 / 14 4 2 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.
TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD
NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050
AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.
S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
317 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.
S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.
FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.
TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.
ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.
FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...
A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.
IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.
BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
SKY IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF ERN
ND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCING EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NEARLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF EACH HOUR
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EVEN MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE
DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE IN HENRY AND BENTON
COUNTIES. THIS TAIL END OF THE LINE MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
STRONG STORM STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE NONEXISTENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SOUTH.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.
BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS AS
CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW FOR OCCURRENCE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
BECOME NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEEDS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS
ON MONDAY WILL CLEAR MONDAY EVENING AS WELL.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.
SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.
STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.
THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.
WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
WACO, TX 99 75 93 73 96 / 30 30 30 10 20
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 70 86 / 40 20 10 10 30
DENTON, TX 91 73 93 73 91 / 40 30 20 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 92 70 93 72 91 / 40 20 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 95 72 93 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 95 73 93 71 94 / 30 30 20 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 97 75 94 72 97 / 30 30 30 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO
THE MID-AFTERNOON HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
HEATING PROMOTES BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED
RESERVOIR OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED
UP ENOUGH FOR AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW
COOL AIR...AND ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY.
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO WACO TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.
STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.
THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.
WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
WACO, TX 99 75 93 73 96 / 30 30 30 10 20
PARIS, TX 90 69 90 70 86 / 40 20 10 10 30
DENTON, TX 91 73 93 73 91 / 40 30 20 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 92 70 93 72 91 / 40 20 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 94 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 95 72 93 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 95 73 93 71 94 / 30 30 20 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 97 75 94 72 97 / 30 30 30 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 72 92 71 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.
WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 20 20
WACO, TX 77 99 75 93 73 / 5 30 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 74 90 69 90 70 / 40 40 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 75 91 73 93 73 / 30 40 30 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 76 92 70 93 72 / 30 40 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 78 94 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 78 95 72 93 72 / 20 30 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 76 95 73 93 71 / 10 30 30 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 74 97 75 94 72 / 0 30 30 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 93 72 92 71 / 20 30 30 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE
EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT BLF AS
SHOWERS PASS...DRAWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY 08Z...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER THE
VICINITY OF KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 09Z...AND PROGRESS EAST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE
LINGERING STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.
THROUGH THE DAY...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF AS 850MB
FLOW IS ZIPPING ALONG AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT TO MIX IT DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH VFR EAST OF THE RIDGE AND MVFR WEST
AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.
VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUB SEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA
IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.
VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM OREGON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE MID/HIGH LEVEL (I.E. ABOVE 15,000 FEET). THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK
OBSERVED WAS OVER LAKEVIEW, OR AT 12,000 FEET. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS. THE
GFS OVER-DID THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER OREGON
TODAY. NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVEN TOUGHER TO ASSESS.
THE SHORT WAVE LIFT IS VERY WEAK. IF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE, THE LIFT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, IT DOESN`T LOOK
VERY LIKELY FOR ANY THUNDER. THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM DO SHOW SOME
WEAK ECHOES MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON PDT`S RADAR OVER OREGON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 20,000 FEET ON THIS AFTERNOON`S SOUNDING, I`D BE
SURPRISED IF ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE COULD REACH THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW. THE NEW NAM RUN HAS
US SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS ONLY
WARMS US ABOUT 2 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HEAT
ADVISORY ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. A
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 67 97 67 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 62 94 61 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 58 97 57 97 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 69 103 69 103 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 57 98 57 100 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 54 92 54 94 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 60 92 61 93 62 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 20
MOSES LAKE 64 102 64 103 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 71 102 71 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 64 101 65 103 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON
AREA.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.
TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT
APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE
CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT
TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN
KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW
WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.
A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.
FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.
SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.
THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER. GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.
SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.
WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.
ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
656 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA. BAND OF HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS
ROTATING NEWD AS EXPECTED. TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HRRR TIMING IS RIGHT
ON. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS 5KFT-10KFT. SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
DELTA REGION AND WAS NEAR A VICKSBURG TO TO LOUISVILLE LINE AT 10
AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST
THAN IN THE EAST. THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED BUT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WIND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES THERE.
/22/
&&
.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING SOME LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROVIDING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 17Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
29/10Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT
TAF SITES KHKS...KJAN...KMEI AND KHBG. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
BETWEEN 10-14Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR
AFTER 14Z. /17/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.
WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.
COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 63 89 63 / 18 5 2 2
MERIDIAN 93 61 90 59 / 19 5 2 2
VICKSBURG 91 61 89 63 / 23 4 2 2
HATTIESBURG 93 67 91 64 / 30 18 4 2
NATCHEZ 90 65 88 64 / 30 12 7 2
GREENVILLE 91 65 87 63 / 10 4 2 2
GREENWOOD 91 63 85 59 / 10 4 2 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/17/26/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.
TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES
OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY
16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF
SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/
FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECTING CEILING OF BKN030 ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXTREME NORTHEAST
INCLUDING KCAO THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AFTER SOME BRIEF MID DAY CLEARING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST...CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO BECOME ACTIVE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL
BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP
THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS
SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A
BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.
DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.
NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-526>532.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH
WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN
SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR
500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN
DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH
18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE
ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).
PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF
SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA.
MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS
MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND
INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF
THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE
WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER
NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH
MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED
AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF
THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED
TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY
POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR
EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.
BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.
BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...
ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.
BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.
PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.
12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.
12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
622 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.
AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.
S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 100 75 101 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 106 79 106 78 106 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 102 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 92 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 75 103 73 103 / 10 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 100 74 101 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.
TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
IOWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN 6K DECK OF CLOUDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-28 110:1980 89:1941 82:1980 55:1892
KFAT 07-29 113:1898 87:1896 78:2003 57:1950
KFAT 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
KBFL 07-28 118:1908 85:1941 84:1931 50:1914
KBFL 07-29 114:1908 87:1965 86:2003 52:1914
KBFL 07-30 112:1908 67:1955 82:1980 45:1955
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.
SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA. MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.
MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.
THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS. SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068-
072>089-093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.
THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE
06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.
THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING. RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL. WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. 06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER. GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH.
WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY
IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP
TO 800-850 HPA.
THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.
GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.
THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
338 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 78 63 70 / 20 50 90 90
GCK 64 77 63 69 / 20 40 90 90
EHA 64 78 63 74 / 40 60 90 70
LBL 65 78 63 71 / 40 70 90 90
HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70
P28 66 83 65 70 / 20 40 90 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 78 63 70 / 20 50 90 90
GCK 64 77 63 69 / 20 40 90 90
EHA 64 78 63 74 / 40 60 90 70
LBL 65 78 63 71 / 40 70 90 90
HYS 62 85 63 78 / 10 30 70 70
P28 66 83 65 70 / 20 40 90 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.
For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night. Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.
Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW
SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED
AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE...
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY
SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST
KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS
WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH
NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON...
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO
FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE
KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON
ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL
SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY
AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12
GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO
ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE NEARBY UPPER LOW AND COOL MID LAYERS ARE CAUSING PLENTY OF
STRATO CU THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...THE CIGS
ARE VARYING BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4K FEET AGL. A FEW POCKETS OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...
BUT THESE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR AVIATION CONCERNS. LATER TONIGHT
THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN A BIT MORE...TO THE 2 OR 2.5K FOOT
LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A
MINIMUM AT MOST SITES...THOUGH DID ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR BR AT LOZ AND
SME LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE UP AND SCATTER OUT TUESDAY
MORNING AT ALL THE SITES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SUNSET WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING
THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.
UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.
PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW.
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET
UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE
U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND
CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING
THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING
OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT
TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A
WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE VCSH AT CMX TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THEN HAVE VCSH AT SAW FOR THE LAST PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDER/ MAY DEVELOP NEARBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY IS TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ARE
QUICKLY FILLING IN FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER ONTARIO. AT FIRST GLANCE...SETUP INTO TONIGHT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...NEED TO CONSIDER
SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED CLOUD CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 00Z RAOB FROM CYYQ IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA INDICATED ONLY NARROW MOIST LAYER AROUND H6 WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH VERY DRY AIR BLO H6. YET UPSTREAM ATTM...NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT DOES SHOW EXPANDING SHROUD OF CLOUD WITH OBS OF
BKN070 AND SCT140. SEEMS THAT AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH TODAY...BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE /HIGHER RH FM H85
THROUGH H6/ COMPARED TO GFS AND RUC13 /NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER RH
CENTERED ON H7/. A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE...BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY.
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD AS PVA AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
THE WAVE. SEEMS THAT THE H8-H7 LIFT/UVM PRESENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF 50+ TOTAL
TOTALS.
TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WITH ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND CLOUDS...WENT MID
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND BASED ON MIXING TO H85 HAVE AROUND 70
INLAND. NOW ONTO THE THOSE SHOWER CHANCES. NAM/NCEP WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM
AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE SCATTERED QPF MAXIMIZING IN THE AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. DPROG/DT OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SIGNALS MIXED THOUGH AS GEM-
REGIONAL WHICH ONCE SHOWED DECENT QPF HAS BACKED OFF AND THE ECMWF
SHOWS LITTLE QPF. RUC13...WHICH SHOWS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS... LOOKS
SIMILAR TO GEM-REGIONAL WITH LITTLE QPF OVER LAND AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF POINTS TO ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR SCNTRL...WHICH DOES
MAKE SENSE AS IT IS FURTHER AWAY FM MODIFICATION/STABILIZATION OFF LK
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE NAM IDEA IS OVERDONE DUE TO HOW IT IS HANDLING
THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND SINCE IT ALSO HAS TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID 50S RESULTING IN TOO MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...A ROUGE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING. BY FAR THE BETTER SHOT AT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO UVM FM SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL.
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...QUITE ISOLD IN COVERAGE...SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA WHILE SHEARING OUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE VCSH AT CMX TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THEN HAVE VCSH AT SAW FOR THE LAST PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDER/ MAY DEVELOP NEARBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS LINGER TODAY OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAIDENT REMAINING IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KTS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.
TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF
OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN
THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF LULL PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY BUT LOOK FOR RAPID EXPANSION IN
SH/TS COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AREAS THAT ARE SUNNIER
NOW WILL SEE THIS INITIAL RAPID EXPANSION BUT SH/TS WILL MOVE INTO
OTHER AREAS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENTLY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELING...EXPECT SAF/LVS/GUP TO BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY TS. USING VCTS AT ABQ/AEG/FMN/TCC AND ROW.
WILL UPDATE ACCORDING TO DVLPMENT AND RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A LONGER DURATION RAIN IMPACT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO CARRYING PREVAILING RAIN AFTER
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOMEWHAT TOWARDS LATE EVENING. ALSO
LOOKING AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AT MANY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GUP/SAF/LVS/TCC AND ROW. CANT RULE OUT IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BUT HARD TO PINT POINT RIGHT NOW. VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD SO EXPECT UPDATES ACCORDINGLY. SOME OF THE CELLS
WILL PRODUCE VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FOUND IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
OUR WESTERN ZONES. ALSO INCREASED/TWEAKED POPS/QPF FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE LATCHED ONTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING SWINGING NNE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING OUT
WEST...WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE NE ACROSS MUCH OF NW NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS ALL IN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FOR LATE JULY. A LATER START IS
EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS STILL IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES
OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY
16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF
SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/
FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL
BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP
THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS
SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A
BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.
DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.
NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.
IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.
NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.
NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 30 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 71 100 74 / - 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 98 78 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 73 98 74 / 20 30 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 71 99 73 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 72 99 74 / - 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 75 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 97 75 99 77 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 73 99 75 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD TUE MORNING...STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CRP. BY
MID MORNING TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 100 75 101 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 106 79 106 78 106 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 102 74 103 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 92 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 75 103 73 103 / 10 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 100 74 101 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 79 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.
TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
WITH BASES 5 TO 7 KFT WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH BY 06Z. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR TUESDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z. THE GREATER FORCING AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE EAST OF KRST/KLSE
BUT A SHOWER/STORM MENTION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NEXT TAF
CYCLE AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....ZT