Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/22/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 20/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AND
MOVING NORTH. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WITH STEERING FLOW
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING HAD THE LOWEST/DRIEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...ESPECIALLY FOR A MORNING
SOUNDING WITH A VALUE OF 1.04 INCHES. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS PW VALUE
FALLS IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS PRETTY
DRY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. THAT SAID...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP AS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST SONORA AND NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA. A FEW CELLS COULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AS WELL. U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM MODEL AND HRRR SHOW A
SIMILAR SCENARIO. THAT SAID...THINK THE POP FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...WILL BASE MY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING LARGELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH A SIMILAR THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND I DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED POP FORECAST
DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES THIS TIME OF YEAR. I INHERITED AN
UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR NOGALES AND DOUGLAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THIS HAPPENING IS NOT AS HIGH SINCE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE RIDGE BUILDING WEDNESDAY AND NEARLY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WERE SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT NOW THIS FEATURE IS LESS
PRONOUNCED AND FARTHER SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY MAY BE TOO HIGH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL WANT TO TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THIS AFTER RECEIPT OF 00Z MODEL RUNS.
THE BIG STORY HOWEVER IS THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FOR TUCSON EXPECTED TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE 110 DEG MARK...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL...OTHERWISE HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY. LOWS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST EXCEEDS RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL. THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST 110 TEMPS OF THE YEAR AND HOTTEST JULY TEMPS SINCE 2011 (110
OR GREATER OCCURRENCES ARE MOST COMMON IN JUNE BEFORE THE MONSOON
ARRIVES).
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SE OF KTUS ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH -TSRA. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT FOR THE GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KSAD...WHERE WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AROUND 15 KTS THRU EARLY
EVENING. THE -TSRA AND WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY IS SIMILAR TO THAT
OF TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND BRING
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN
AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE...THAT BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...HAS NOW MOVED WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...INTO SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR HAS BEEN PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS LOW-LEVEL DRYING ALONG WITH A SWITCH IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ONE HAS ENDED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OUR
CWA THIS EVENING...AND HAS ALSO CLEARED SKIES OUT AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS QUIET WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BEYOND AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUR FURTHER...WITH THE 18Z
GFS SHOWING PWATS FALLING WELL BELOW 1 INCH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS...CURRENT GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT BKN-OVC CIGS...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE TERMINALS EARLIER ON SAT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVERAGE
DOWN INTO THE FEW-SCT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT
KBLH...WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 115 DEGREES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...THOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. SOME
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
SE AZ AT THIS TIME. SOMEWHAT THICKER CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER FAR
ERN SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 20/04Z RANGED
FROM THE MID 40S-MID 50S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 2-6 DEGS
F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 20/00Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP
WATER VALUE WAS ABOUT 1.10 INCHES...OR NEARLY 0.30 INCH LOWER VERSUS
FRI EVENING.
AXIS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDED FROM
FAR ERN SONORA/WRN CHIHUAHUA NWD INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS JUST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW THAT MAY ENCROACH UPON FAR SERN SECTIONS
LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...20/00Z NAM AND 20/01Z RUC HRRR DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...AND AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THESE SOLUTIONS.
THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE THE REST OF TONIGHT.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SUN ARE
FORECAST TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MEXICO BORDER
EAST OF KDUG ENDING AROUND 20/06Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUD DECKS
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 8-12K FT AGL. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST EXCEEDS RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL. THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST 110 TEMPS OF THE YEAR AND HOTTEST JULY TEMPS SINCE 2011 (110
OR GREATER OCCURRENCES ARE MOST COMMON IN JUNE BEFORE THE MONSOON
ARRIVES).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SUNDAY DOESN`T LOOK MUCH BETTER AND EVEN STARTS
TO PICK UP A BIT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WESTERN AREAS AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN ERNEST THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THE MONSOON WILL PROBABLY SPUTTER WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYS
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FRONT RANGE
THIS COMING WEEK. COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SITUATION
EXPECT NEAR RECORD HEAT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THICKNESS REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND MODEL H8 TEMPS SCREAMING
FOR RECORD VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE EVENT IS AN OUTLIER SO
WE`RE BETTER SERVED WITH SOLID INDIVIDUAL MODEL ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE
OVER CONSENSUS SUITES. RAW DATA FROM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE MID WEEK HEAT PRETTY WELL...WITH MOS DATA A LITTLE LOW
DUE CLIMO INFLUENCE. WE WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 AT TIA
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BASELINE BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES HOTTER. THE MAIN FACTOR TO INTERFERE WITH THE
RECORD HEAT FORECAST AT THIS POINT WOULD BE MOISTURE...AND AS OF NOW
IT ISN`T LOOKING TERRIBLY WET BY AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SURGE...PROBABLY A STRONG SURGE...WOULD BE A GOOD FIRST GUESS AFTER
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF RECORD HEAT AS LONG AS LARGER SCALE FEATURES
DON`T INTERFERE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST-WEST AND
POSITIONED NORTH OF OUR AREA WE SHOULD BE FINE FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE. THE ECMWF EVEN SETS UP A STRONG MOISTURE FIELD THROUGH SONORA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE
ON SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED T-STORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. KMUX-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY BUT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 24 HOURS AND PREVIOUS
MONSOON EVENTS ITS ONLY DROPPING TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF VIRGA. NONETHELESS BRIEF SHOWERS WITH BIG DROPS
THAT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY THIS MORNING.
ON WATER VAPOR THERE IS A VERY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA
CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER TULARE COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGH SIERRA HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
MORNING (NOT THE USUAL AFTERNOON STUFF) OVER THE CREST. THE
NAM/HRRR AND RUC SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME POSSIBLE T-STORMS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES.
ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA RITA MOUNTAIN/PRIEST
VALLEY/PARKFIELD/HWY 198. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS. EVEN THOUGH
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND WERE NOT SEEING DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO
NEW FIRE IGNITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED SPRINKLES...ETC IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH OFF THE COAST SHOULD
TURN THE MAIN FLOW BACK TO WSW WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
MONSOON THREAT LOCALLY (STILL PLENTY OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
SIERRA). NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD TREND UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS THE DOMINATE
HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RADAR SHOWS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
DETECTED IN WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE NAM FORECASTS MU CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. MOST
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AND SO ONLY ISOLATED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE THE NAM FORECASTS
MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
RECENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST ONLY GRADUAL SOUTH-TO-NORTH CLEARING
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE MAY BE HUNG UP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS BETWEEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE
MUCH PRECIP AFTER TODAY...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. MOST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXIT
OUR AREA BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT THEN...THE MODELS BRING ONE MORE BRIEF SHOT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SSW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NE. IT`S DOUBTFUL WE
WILL SEE MORE THAN SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THIS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST...BRINGING IN
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEA
SURFACE TEMPS WHICH ARE A BYPRODUCT OF A RECENT LACK OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND THUS A REDUCTION IN
UPWELLING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CA FROM THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
MEAN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S IN THE WARMEST SF BAY AREA VALLEYS AND BACK OVER 100
IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS FROM
WARMING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT. VICINITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS RETURN OVER TERMINAL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN OVER APPROACH MONDAY MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURN
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER....AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. ALSO...IF LIGHTNING DOES OCCUR IT
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER STARTING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MIDWEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE LAST OF THIS LATEST LITTLE SUBTROPICAL
SURGE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND,
MAINLY FOR SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTY. A SURPRISINGLY DEEP AND SOLID
MARINE LYR HAS FORMED IN IT`S WAKE ACROSS LA COUNTY WITH TOPS AROUND
3500`. BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE, THOUGH HRRR MODEL SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NOTHING DEVELOPING ONCE THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. NAM12 CAPE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
AT GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY AND JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE EVENING...THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WRF INDICATES A FAIRLY SOLID
STRATUS PATTERN IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING MON IN MOST AREAS. SMALL
RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING TO INTERIOR SECTIONS ON MONDAY...BUT MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE
COAST OPENS UP AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN CA. HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY SHRINK IN DEPTH...BUT NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
PROBABLY STILL PUSH INTO COASTAL AND AT LEAST THE LOWER VLY
LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST WED AND THU...AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
CONT TO RISE. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE WILL BE WARMING BOTH WED AND THU...WITH
TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON WED...AND IN THE WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS BY THU. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR
FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SEND
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY SAT...BUT FOR
NOW...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/1725Z...
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER WEAK INVERSION BASED AROUND
3000 FEET. COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS ALL CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/VFR CIGS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
SITES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
SCATTERING OUT AROUND 20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN IS LOW.
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 05Z FORECAST.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
DISSIPATING BY 20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN. MVFR CIGS COULD
RETURN +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...20/900 AM
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE LAST OF THIS LATEST LITTLE SUBTROPICAL
SURGE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND,
MAINLY FOR SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTY. A SURPRISINGLY DEEP AND SOLID
MARINE LYR HAS FORMED IN IT`S WAKE ACROSS LA COUNTY WITH TOPS AROUND
3500`. BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE, THOUGH HRRR MODEL SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NOTHING DEVELOPING ONCE THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. NAM12 CAPE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
AT GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY AND JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE EVENING...THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WRF INDICATES A FAIRLY SOLID
STRATUS PATTERN IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING MON IN MOST AREAS. SMALL
RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING TO INTERIOR SECTIONS ON MONDAY...BUT MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE
COAST OPENS UP AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN CA. HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY SHRINK IN DEPTH...BUT NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
PROBABLY STILL PUSH INTO COASTAL AND AT LEAST THE LOWER VLY
LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST WED AND THU...AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
CONT TO RISE. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE WILL BE WARMING BOTH WED AND THU...WITH
TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON WED...AND IN THE WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS BY THU. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR
FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SEND
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY SAT...BUT FOR
NOW...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
20/1140Z
VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SOME SHOWERS MIXED IN. ANY COASTAL STATION COULD SEE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z BUT ONLY THE KLAX AND KLGB HAVE A GREATER THAN 50% CHC.
ALL STATIONS HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER THROUGH 20Z. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTM OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT.
.KLAX...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS COULD DISSIPATE ANY
TIME BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER
THROUGH 20Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z.
.KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS COULD LAST TIL 16Z. THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER THROUGH 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...20/900 AM
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
847 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE
ON SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED T-STORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. KMUX-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY BUT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 24 HOURS AND PREVIOUS
MONSOON EVENTS ITS ONLY DROPPING TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF VIRGA. NONETHELESS BRIEF SHOWERS WITH BIG DROPS
THAT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY THIS MORNING.
ON WATER VAPOR THERE IS A VERY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA
CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER TULARE COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGH SIERRA HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
MORNING (NOT THE USUAL AFTERNOON STUFF) OVER THE CREST. THE
NAM/HRRR AND RUC SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME POSSIBLE T-STORMS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES.
ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA RITA MOUNTAIN/PRIEST
VALLEY/PARKFIELD/HWY 198. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS. EVEN THOUGH
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND WERE NOT SEEING DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO
NEW FIRE IGNITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED SPRINKLES...ETC IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH OFF THE COAST SHOULD
TURN THE MAIN FLOW BACK TO WSW WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
MONSOON THREAT LOCALLY (STILL PLENTY OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
SIERRA). NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD TREND UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS THE DOMINATE
HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RADAR SHOWS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
DETECTED IN WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE NAM FORECASTS MU CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. MOST
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AND SO ONLY ISOLATED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE THE NAM FORECASTS
MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
RECENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST ONLY GRADUAL SOUTH-TO-NORTH CLEARING
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE MAY BE HUNG UP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS BETWEEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE
MUCH PRECIP AFTER TODAY...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. MOST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXIT
OUR AREA BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT THEN...THE MODELS BRING ONE MORE BRIEF SHOT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SSW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NE. IT`S DOUBTFUL WE
WILL SEE MORE THAN SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THIS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST...BRINGING IN
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEA
SURFACE TEMPS WHICH ARE A BYPRODUCT OF A RECENT LACK OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND THUS A REDUCTION IN
UPWELLING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CA FROM THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
MEAN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S IN THE WARMEST SF BAY AREA VALLEYS AND BACK OVER 100
IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS FROM
WARMING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 AM PDT SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE IS
STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS POPPING
UP OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT008 WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN008 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200 AND 1400Z THIS MORNING. BKN015 IS
EXPECTED AT 1400Z BUT WILL BURN OFF BY 1630Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC015 ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMRY BY 1700Z. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PASS OVER MONTEREY THIS MORNING WITH VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED
OCCASIONALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:27 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP OVER INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER....AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. ALSO...IF LIGHTNING DOES OCCUR IT
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER STARTING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
FIRE WX: DYKEMA
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS THE NOSE OF A 60+KT JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE WHILE ALSO
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. GRAND JUNCTION RAOB SHOWED .46 INCHES
OF PWAT YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THE NAM12 FORECAST FAIRLY WELL.
TODAY...THE NAM12 IS SHOWING AN INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON SO 2 INGREDIENTS...LIFT FROM THE JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...ARE IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES DO BECOME STEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA SO WITH ALL 3 INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...STORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE A SOLID BET. SOME SHEAR ALSO EXISTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE POP AND DROP WE`VE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO DO EXPECT SOME RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. HRRR REALLY
LIGHTING UP THE SAN JUANS WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SO HIGH POPS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH THE 60KT JET STREAK AT H3 PLAYING A ROLE.
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA RETREATS WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CAN SHIFT BACK OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS USUALLY A GOOD
POSITION TO BE PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE 4 CORNERS...BUT
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
A DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN US BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THIS JET RETREATS NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE RECYCLING
EACH DAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THIS FLATTENING WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BECOME W TO NWLY AND LIMITING THE MEAGER AMTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WERE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HOT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z/MON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH A NUMBER OF CELLS WILL DRIFT OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. TAF SITES
WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE IS A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE STORMS WILL PASS OVERHEAD. STRONGER CELLS COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES OFF WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING OVER THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT JUST A FEW STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANCE THAT TAF SITES WILL BE
IMPACTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER UT/CO TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH
500MB OR SO ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SFC RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 PERCENT AS DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CO
FIRE ZONE 200. TO THAT END...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT ZONE ON MONDAY FROM NOON TO 8PM.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS
SECTION
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS THE NOSE OF A 60+KT JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE WHILE ALSO
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. GRAND JUNCTION RAOB SHOWED .46 INCHES
OF PWAT YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THE NAM12 FORECAST FAIRLY WELL.
TODAY...THE NAM12 IS SHOWING AN INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON SO 2 INGREDIENTS...LIFT FROM THE JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...ARE IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES DO BECOME STEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA SO WITH ALL 3 INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...STORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE A SOLID BET. SOME SHEAR ALSO EXISTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE POP AND DROP WE`VE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO DO EXPECT SOME RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. HRRR REALLY
LIGHTING UP THE SAN JUANS WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SO HIGH POPS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH THE 60KT JET STREAK AT H3 PLAYING A ROLE.
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA RETREATS WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CAN SHIFT BACK OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS USUALLY A GOOD
POSITION TO BE PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE 4 CORNERS...BUT
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
A DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN US BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THIS JET RETREATS NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE RECYCLING
EACH DAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THIS FLATTENING WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BECOME W TO NWLY AND LIMITING THE MEAGER AMTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WERE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HOT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE FROM ABOUT 17Z WHEN
CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CU BUILD UP EXPECTED ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AND RAINSHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED BUT SOME SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS. SOME HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING 40 MPH UNDER AND
NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. PER THE NORM...INCLUDED VCTS FOR
KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH 06Z THOUGH NO AERODROMES SHOULD BE AFFECTED AFTER
03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER UT/CO TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH
500MB OR SO ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SFC RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 PERCENT AS DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CO
FIRE ZONE 200. TO THAT END...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT ZONE ON MONDAY FROM NOON TO 8PM.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS THE NOSE OF A 60+KT JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE WHILE ALSO
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. GRAND JUNCTION RAOB SHOWED .46 INCHES
OF PWAT YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THE NAM12 FORECAST FAIRLY WELL.
TODAY...THE NAM12 IS SHOWING AN INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON SO 2 INGREDIENTS...LIFT FROM THE JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...ARE IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES DO BECOME STEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA SO WITH ALL 3 INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...STORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE A SOLID BET. SOME SHEAR ALSO EXISTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE POP AND DROP WE`VE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO DO EXPECT SOME RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. HRRR REALLY
LIGHTING UP THE SAN JUANS WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SO HIGH POPS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH THE 60KT JET STREAK AT H3 PLAYING A ROLE.
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA RETREATS WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CAN SHIFT BACK OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS USUALLY A GOOD
POSITION TO BE PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE 4 CORNERS...BUT
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
A DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN US BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THIS JET RETREATS NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE RECYCLING
EACH DAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THIS FLATTENING WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BECOME W TO NWLY AND LIMITING THE MEAGER AMTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WERE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HOT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE FROM ABOUT 17Z WHEN
CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CU BUILD UP EXPECTED ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AND RAINSHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED BUT SOME SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS. SOME HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING 40 MPH UNDER AND
NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. PER THE NORM...INCLUDED VCTS FOR
KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH 06Z THOUGH NO AERODROMES SHOULD BE AFFECTED AFTER
03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER UT/CO TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH
500MB OR SO ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SFC RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 PERCENT AS DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CO
FIRE ZONE 200. TO THAT END...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT ZONE ON MONDAY FROM NOON TO 8PM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS. THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH
LATE TODAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS
BROADSCALE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SW UNDERGOES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ASCENT ALONG AND N OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMMEDIATELY S OF
NEW ENGLAND AND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR THROUGH INTERIOR
AND E/NE NEW ENGLAND WILL PRESENT CHALLENGES FOR RAIN IN REACHING
THE SURFACE. BUT PER 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS...THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS NOT INCREDIBLY DEEP NOR ROBUST. SO SPRINKLES TO A STEADY
RAIN IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE BENEATH ANY AREAS OF RAINFALL OBSERVED
BY RADAR.
SO HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSEST TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY
FOR S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS /AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER OF A FOCUS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON/. CHANCE POPS FOR
ADJACENT AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER E NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUNSHINE MAINLY W. THUS HAVE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE
CT-RIVER VALLEY OF AROUND 80-DEGREES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO
MID-70S OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND AS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMERGING TOWARDS THE SW FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC INVOKES AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF BREEZY E/NE WINDS OFF THE COOLER WATERS.
AS FOR NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE HRRR IS
CATCHING UP. BUT SUGGEST THE USE OF THE ECMWF TO INTERPRET THE
BROADSCALE MOTIONS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS TO INTUIATIVELY DISCERN
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ACCOMPANYING LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE DESPITE
SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING CONDITIONS COULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TOWARD THE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH MID WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE LATEST /20.00Z/ GUIDANCE SUITE...THE DIFFERENCES
REGARDING A DIGGING TROF LATE IN THE WEEK ARE DIMINISHING. THE
ECMWF...AND SOME ENSEMBLES ARE LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF TRIES TO
DIG INTO BUILDING RIDGE BOTH ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND SE ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH. THEREFORE...THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT FOR WED-THU APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH HIGH PRES NOW
DOMINATING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS IDEA FITS THE
PATTERN BETTER...FEEL A BLEND OF THIS LATEST ECMWF WITH OTHER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WITH THIS
UPDATE.
THEREFORE...THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THESE TWO BUILDING
RIDGES...ALLOWING FOR AN INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. THE WARMING/HIGHER HUMIDITY TREND IS FAVORED AS
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO REACH ALMOST +19C BY THU.
IT IS NOT UNTIL THAT SLOWLY WEAKENING TROF ARRIVES LATE IN THE
WEAK THAT A DRIER..ZONAL..AND COOLER AIRMASS IS ALLOWED TO MOVE
IN.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING DWPTS...REACHING THE UPPER 60S BY
WED. H85 TEMPS OF +16C TUE SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHERE
SUNSHINE ALLOWS FULL MIXING...WHILE +18C SUGGESTS SOME HIGHS
AROUND 90F ON WED. THE KEY EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE THEIR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EACH DAY THE H7 TEMPS INCREASE...TO ABOUT
+8C ON TUE...THEN NEAR +10C BY WED...SUGGESTING A BUILDING CAPPING
INVERSION. ALSO...RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AND SLACKENING IN THE MASS
FIELDS REMAINS TO THE N AND W EACH DAY. THEREFORE...SUSPECT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY IS TO THE N AND W. ALSO...SHEAR IS
MINIMAL AT BEST /GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT/ SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE QUICKLY. IN SUM...WILL
GO WITH SOME LOW POPS..MAINLY ACROSS THE W EACH DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON WED THANKS TO THE FACT THAT ALL OF THESE
FEATURES LINE UP SLIGHTLY BETTER. OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
THU...
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS UPPER LVL JET STREAK
LINES UP IT/S RRQ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500J/KG. SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE HIGHER AS WELL...ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT. ALL AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES. WITH THE LATEST
RUNS...WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER AIR BY THU EVENING.
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION NOW FAVORED...THE SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE AS ONCE AGAIN...THE SW RIDGE
REGAINS CONTROL. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THAT SOME DRIER...COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER FROM THE W-NW.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A RETURN TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNTIL SW FLOW RETURNS BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAINLY S AND E OF A PVD-BOS LINE...VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THIS AS WELL. WINDS GENERALLY E-NE THROUGH THE
DAY EXCEPT MAINLY N IN THE CT VALLEY.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR/IF ESPECIALLY ACK/FMH/HYA/MVY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT
IN TAF EXCEPT ACK WITH THIS UPDATE. NE FLOW CONTINUES.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. LIGHT NE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN ON COASTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE S/SE WATERS FOR THE
PURPOSES OF NOTIFYING BOATERS OF THE THREAT OF GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT
BUOY 44017 UP TO 4.6 FEET AT THIS HOUR AND GUSTS OF AROUND 20-25
KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NANTUCKET SOUND.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHERN-ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER...WITH SW WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHT WITH
REDUCED VSBYS.
WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH
LATE TODAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS
BROADSCALE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SW UNDERGOES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ASCENT ALONG AND N OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMMEDIATELY S OF
NEW ENGLAND AND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR THROUGH INTERIOR
AND E/NE NEW ENGLAND WILL PRESENT CHALLENGES FOR RAIN IN REACHING
THE SURFACE. BUT PER 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS...THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS NOT INCREDIBLY DEEP NOR ROBUST. SO SPRINKLES TO A STEADY
RAIN IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE BENEATH ANY AREAS OF RAINFALL OBSERVED
BY RADAR.
SO HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSEST TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY
FOR S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS /AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER OF A FOCUS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON/. CHANCE POPS FOR
ADJACENT AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER E NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUNSHINE MAINLY W. THUS HAVE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE
CT-RIVER VALLEY OF AROUND 80-DEGREES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO
MID-70S OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND AS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMERGING TOWARDS THE SW FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC INVOKES AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF BREEZY E/NE WINDS OFF THE COOLER WATERS.
AS FOR NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE HRRR IS
CATCHING UP. BUT SUGGEST THE USE OF THE ECMWF TO INTERPRET THE
BROADSCALE MOTIONS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS TO INTUIATIVELY DISCERN
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ACCOMPANYING LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE DESPITE
SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING CONDITIONS COULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TOWARD THE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH MID WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE LATEST /20.00Z/ GUIDANCE SUITE...THE DIFFERENCES
REGARDING A DIGGING TROF LATE IN THE WEEK ARE DIMINISHING. THE
ECMWF...AND SOME ENSEMBLES ARE LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF TRIES TO
DIG INTO BUILDING RIDGE BOTH ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND SE ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH. THEREFORE...THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT FOR WED-THU APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH HIGH PRES NOW
DOMINATING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS IDEA FITS THE
PATTERN BETTER...FEEL A BLEND OF THIS LATEST ECMWF WITH OTHER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WITH THIS
UPDATE.
THEREFORE...THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THESE TWO BUILDING
RIDGES...ALLOWING FOR AN INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. THE WARMING/HIGHER HUMIDITY TREND IS FAVORED AS
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO REACH ALMOST +19C BY THU.
IT IS NOT UNTIL THAT SLOWLY WEAKENING TROF ARRIVES LATE IN THE
WEAK THAT A DRIER..ZONAL..AND COOLER AIRMASS IS ALLOWED TO MOVE
IN.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING DWPTS...REACHING THE UPPER 60S BY
WED. H85 TEMPS OF +16C TUE SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHERE
SUNSHINE ALLOWS FULL MIXING...WHILE +18C SUGGESTS SOME HIGHS
AROUND 90F ON WED. THE KEY EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE THEIR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EACH DAY THE H7 TEMPS INCREASE...TO ABOUT
+8C ON TUE...THEN NEAR +10C BY WED...SUGGESTING A BUILDING CAPPING
INVERSION. ALSO...RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AND SLACKENING IN THE MASS
FIELDS REMAINS TO THE N AND W EACH DAY. THEREFORE...SUSPECT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY IS TO THE N AND W. ALSO...SHEAR IS
MINIMAL AT BEST /GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT/ SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE QUICKLY. IN SUM...WILL
GO WITH SOME LOW POPS..MAINLY ACROSS THE W EACH DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON WED THANKS TO THE FACT THAT ALL OF THESE
FEATURES LINE UP SLIGHTLY BETTER. OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
THU...
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS UPPER LVL JET STREAK
LINES UP IT/S RRQ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500J/KG. SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE HIGHER AS WELL...ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT. ALL AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES. WITH THE LATEST
RUNS...WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER AIR BY THU EVENING.
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION NOW FAVORED...THE SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE AS ONCE AGAIN...THE SW RIDGE
REGAINS CONTROL. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THAT SOME DRIER...COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER FROM THE W-NW.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A RETURN TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNTIL SW FLOW RETURNS BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAINLY S AND E OF A PVD-BOS LINE...VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THIS AS WELL. WINDS GENERALLY E-NE THROUGH THE
DAY EXCEPT MAINLY N IN THE CT VALLEY.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR/IF ESPECIALLY ACK/FMH/HYA/MVY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT
IN TAF EXCEPT ACK WITH THIS UPDATE. NE FLOW CONTINUES.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. LIGHT NE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN ON COASTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS OFF OUR COAST
BY ABOUT A FOOT. LOWERED THE WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT
THROUGH MONDAY.
TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
5-15 KT. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS AND ADJACENT
SHOWERS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER...WITH SW WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHT WITH
REDUCED VSBYS.
WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS. THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE 05Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING.
OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS. THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR CIG WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
REVEALS A BATCH OF RAIN TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM PA. GIVEN THE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KPOU-KPSF AND WATCH TRENDS. MEANWHILE...THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION AS KGFL AND KPSF /WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN/ REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS BRIEF MVFR VIS THRESHOLDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYLIGHT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
UPDATE...
WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM DO HAVE THE PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED...BUT EVEN THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED AROUND TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND THE MODELS HAVENT HANDLED THIS TREND
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METRO. THE EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A WET PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE TROUGH
AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY A DISTURBANCE IS NOTED PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND SPARKING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
ATHENS LINE... WITH MAINLY SPOTTY SHOWERS NORTH OF THAT LINE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TN WITH A WARM FRONT
NEAR A RMG TO ATL TO AGS LINE... AND A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE WARM
SECTOR IS WINNING THE BATTLE AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. BEGINNING TO
SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR... YET
STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE SHOWING BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE COOL WEDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A MOIST TROPICAL
AIR MASS WITH 1.8+ PW`S WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THINK THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH BY 9 PM THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING BLOCKED OVER AL ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS SUGGESTS EVEN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT
MEANDERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA DURING MAX HEATING.
ALTHOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL ON SUNDAY... INCREASING
UPPER SUPPORT DURING MAX HEATING AND A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ALL
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS
FLOOD PRONE LOW AREAS. SPC IS SHOWING ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 9-10 PM SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL HAS WARRANTED LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS... AND WARMER LOWS. A
MAV AND MET BLEND WITH SOME TWEAKS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW.
39
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE DAMPING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT...BUT WITH MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL IN PLACE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON. THE GENERAL UPPER WEAKNESS
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TRIES TO PUSH EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPPING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IMPEDES THE PROGRESS OF THE HIGH BUT ALSO
DRAGS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FROM THERE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH
SHARPER UPPER TROUGH...AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A GENERAL
COMPROMISE BUT DID START TO REDUCE POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION. WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE-LIKE
STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE LARGER THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THE
QPF WILL BE FAIRLY SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...NOT REALLY
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
AREAS UNDER INDIVIDUAL STORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
YESTERDAY...EXPECT LIFR/IFR TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 12-14Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY/CIGS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WEATHER.
ATWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 71 87 70 / 50 40 40 40
ATLANTA 83 70 86 71 / 60 30 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 79 65 81 65 / 50 30 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 84 69 87 70 / 50 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 86 72 90 72 / 60 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 83 71 85 69 / 50 40 30 30
MACON 85 70 86 72 / 60 40 40 40
ROME 84 70 88 70 / 40 20 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 84 69 87 71 / 60 30 30 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 72 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
255 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE DCAPE VALUES AND THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTS TO 40KT WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
NEAR ONE INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND THUS HAVE ONLY
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THERE ARE BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT AND LESS CLOUDINESS
TO HELP AID SURFACE HEATING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND WARM TO
5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES. MID LEVEL CEILINGS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING IDZ401.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ORZ646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
This morning water vapor satellite shows a weak wave moving across
north central Kansas at 08Z. A band of clouds developed across
Dickinson, Clay and Washington Counties in area of isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer and on the nose of moisture advection in the
850mb-700mb layer. Stratus further west across northwest Kansas and
south central and western Nebraska low stratus clouds continued to
expand, mainly across Nebraska, as the low level jet veers to the
southwest.
Today and tonight will see a transition from northwest flow aloft as
a ridge builds in from the west. The wave is not expected to develop
showers as it moves east as atmosphere is dry.
Expect the clouds to expand some and spread east through sunrise.
Forecast soundings from the RAP indicates that the clouds should
breakup/dissipate during the mid to late morning hours. Temperatures
will be on the rise today as 850mb temperatures increase into the
lower to middle 20s Celsius. Forecast soundings show that these
temperatures should mix down from around 850 mb yielding highs in
the upper 80s east to the middle 90s north central. South winds
today will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 25mph.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase across north central and
northeast Kansas. Soundings show that winds should stay up overnight
keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Have maintained mild
overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. With the upper
ridge building over Kansas this will keep any precipitation to the
north of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Monday and Tuesday periods still looking quite warm as the upper
ridge continues to build north and east into the central portions of
the CONUS and south to southwest winds persist ahead of a cold
front. Specifics of just how warm and humid surface conditions will
be remain somewhat uncertain with models differing on low level
thermal profiles in terms of how deep mixing will be and how warm
the above-surface airmass will be to mix into. Other complicating
factors include well-agreed upon cirrus in Mexico coming northeast
and into the area Monday and still small chances for elevated
convection to develop ahead of the front in increasingly moist
though still not very saturated mid level parcels. Even if precip
fails to develop, could at least see some mid cloud into much of
Tuesday before the front arrives in the afternoon. At this point,
have leaned closer to the GFS soundings with mixing not as deep as
the NAM suggests and 850-925mb temp fields warmer than then ECMWF.
Dewpoints still support heat index values several degrees above air
temps for steadily increasing likelihood of Heat Advisory levels
being reached for mainly northern and central sections.
Better and more significant thunderstorm chances come with the
front`s passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE near the
boundary likely to be around 2000 J/kg but limited shear and high
cloud bases should limit severe potential to mainly
multicell-produced downburst winds. Boundary exits Wednesday
morning for a somewhat cooler though higher relatively humid airmass
as moisture pools behind the front, though Thursday looking a bit
more comfortable as northeast winds persist. Still appears to be at
least minor convective chances as the front pushes back northeast
Thursday night into Friday, with another cold front likely moving
south into Kansas around Saturday. Models vary with just how this
may happen, but the upper ridge appears to again break down with
shortwaves dropping southeast from central Canada. Highs Friday
could again near triple digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Expect VFR conditions and south winds through the TAF period.
Gusts 20-25 kts possible this afternoon and again late Monday
morning. Will have a LLJ around 35 kts at 2000 ft AGL tonight, but
winds around 10 kts at surface suggest that LLWS group will not be
needed.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
This morning water vapor satellite shows a weak wave moving across
north central Kansas at 08Z. A band of clouds developed across
Dickinson, Clay and Washington Counties in area of isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer and on the nose of moisture advection in the
850mb-700mb layer. Stratus further west across northwest Kansas and
south central and western Nebraska low stratus clouds continued to
expand, mainly across Nebraska, as the low level jet veers to the
southwest.
Today and tonight will see a transition from northwest flow aloft as
a ridge builds in from the west. The wave is not expected to develop
showers as it moves east as atmosphere is dry.
Expect the clouds to expand some and spread east through sunrise.
Forecast soundings from the RAP indicates that the clouds should
breakup/dissipate during the mid to late morning hours. Temperatures
will be on the rise today as 850mb temperatures increase into the
lower to middle 20s Celsius. Forecast soundings show that these
temperatures should mix down from around 850 mb yielding highs in
the upper 80s east to the middle 90s north central. South winds
today will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 25mph.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase across north central and
northeast Kansas. Soundings show that winds should stay up overnight
keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Have maintained mild
overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. With the upper
ridge building over Kansas this will keep any precipitation to the
north of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Monday and Tuesday periods still looking quite warm as the upper
ridge continues to build north and east into the central portions of
the CONUS and south to southwest winds persist ahead of a cold
front. Specifics of just how warm and humid surface conditions will
be remain somewhat uncertain with models differing on low level
thermal profiles in terms of how deep mixing will be and how warm
the above-surface airmass will be to mix into. Other complicating
factors include well-agreed upon cirrus in Mexico coming northeast
and into the area Monday and still small chances for elevated
convection to develop ahead of the front in increasingly moist
though still not very saturated mid level parcels. Even if precip
fails to develop, could at least see some mid cloud into much of
Tuesday before the front arrives in the afternoon. At this point,
have leaned closer to the GFS soundings with mixing not as deep as
the NAM suggests and 850-925mb temp fields warmer than then ECMWF.
Dewpoints still support heat index values several degrees above air
temps for steadily increasing likelihood of Heat Advisory levels
being reached for mainly northern and central sections.
Better and more significant thunderstorm chances come with the
front`s passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE near the
boundary likely to be around 2000 J/kg but limited shear and high
cloud bases should limit severe potential to mainly
multicell-produced downburst winds. Boundary exits Wednesday
morning for a somewhat cooler though higher relatively humid airmass
as moisture pools behind the front, though Thursday looking a bit
more comfortable as northeast winds persist. Still appears to be at
least minor convective chances as the front pushes back northeast
Thursday night into Friday, with another cold front likely moving
south into Kansas around Saturday. Models vary with just how this
may happen, but the upper ridge appears to again break down with
shortwaves dropping southeast from central Canada. Highs Friday
could again near triple digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR Conditions are expected through the period. South winds
increase to around 13kts with gusts near 22 kts after 15Z. Winds
drop off to less than 10 kts after 01Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
340 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
This morning water vapor satellite shows a weak wave moving across
north central Kansas at 08Z. A band of clouds developed across
Dickinson, Clay and Washington Counties in area of isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer and on the nose of moisture advection in the
850mb-700mb layer. Stratus further west across northwest Kansas and
south central and western Nebraska low stratus clouds continued to
expand, mainly across Nebraska, as the low level jet veers to the
southwest.
Today and tonight will see a transition from northwest flow aloft as
a ridge builds in from the west. The wave is not expected to develop
showers as it moves east as atmosphere is dry.
Expect the clouds to expand some and spread east through sunrise.
Forecast soundings from the RAP indicates that the clouds should
breakup/dissipate during the mid to late morning hours. Temperatures
will be on the rise today as 850mb temperatures increase into the
lower to middle 20s Celsius. Forecast soundings show that these
temperatures should mix down from around 850 mb yielding highs in
the upper 80s east to the middle 90s north central. South winds
today will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 25mph.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase across north central and
northeast Kansas. Soundings show that winds should stay up overnight
keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Have maintained mild
overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. With the upper
ridge building over Kansas this will keep any precipitation to the
north of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Monday and Tuesday periods still looking quite warm as the upper
ridge continues to build north and east into the central portions of
the CONUS and south to southwest winds persist ahead of a cold
front. Specifics of just how warm and humid surface conditions will
be remain somewhat uncertain with models differing on low level
thermal profiles in terms of how deep mixing will be and how warm
the above-surface airmass will be to mix into. Other complicating
factors include well-agreed upon cirrus in Mexico coming northeast
and into the area Monday and still small chances for elevated
convection to develop ahead of the front in increasingly moist
though still not very saturated mid level parcels. Even if precip
fails to develop, could at least see some mid cloud into much of
Tuesday before the front arrives in the afternoon. At this point,
have leaned closer to the GFS soundings with mixing not as deep as
the NAM suggests and 850-925mb temp fields warmer than then ECMWF.
Dewpoints still support heat index values several degrees above air
temps for steadily increasing likelihood of Heat Advisory levels
being reached for mainly northern and central sections.
Better and more significant thunderstorm chances come with the
front`s passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE near the
boundary likely to be around 2000 J/kg but limited shear and high
cloud bases should limit severe potential to mainly
multicell-produced downburst winds. Boundary exits Wednesday
morning for a somewhat cooler though higher relatively humid airmass
as moisture pools behind the front, though Thursday looking a bit
more comfortable as northeast winds persist. Still appears to be at
least minor convective chances as the front pushes back northeast
Thursday night into Friday, with another cold front likely moving
south into Kansas around Saturday. Models vary with just how this
may happen, but the upper ridge appears to again break down with
shortwaves dropping southeast from central Canada. Highs Friday
could again near triple digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
Vfr conditions will continue through this period as well with
good mixing overnight that will keep fog potential very low in the
terminal locations. South winds will steadily increase beyond 14z
at all sites with gusts 20 to 22 kts through 00z/20 before
decreasing to 7-8 kts aft 01z/21.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATE TO FINE TUNE COVERAGE BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP). CIN REMAINS
HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A
DRYLINE OVER SE COLORADO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND ACT AS FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE. LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AS THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASING WITH NOCTURNAL JET AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
THE MOST FAVORABLE SUPPORT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY EASTWARD
03-09Z...AND SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN
COVERAGE IN NORTHERN COLORADO. I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FURTHER NORTH LINGERING THROUGH 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
I ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE 10-14Z PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHER TD VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES FROM 20Z-00Z. ON TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A SFC TROUGH WHILE
SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY (100-105) EXPECTED EAST OF THE TROUGH. WE
DO REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ACROSS THE SAME COUNTIES AS
MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
WARMEST READINGS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF HEATING TO WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16C-18C RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 100S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND CONVERGENT LINE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND
ELEVATED INHIBITION IS RATHER LOW. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER 3K J/KG CAPE ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY ECMWF/GFS
SHOW A SLUG OF 700-300MB MOISTURE EMERGING OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AT THE END OF THE DAY ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS UPPER JET DIVERGENT
SIGNATURE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE TO OUR WEST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 17C-19C PRETTY MUCH CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL.
700-300MB MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY CAPPED
PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OR IS IN THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON TIMING/POSITION OF THIS LOW WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER TERMINAL. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS BEST FOG/STRATUS CHANCES EAST OF KGLD...SO
HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF KGLD TAF. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH NAM IS FAVORING LOW STRATUS/FOG AROUND 12Z. I
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AS LOW AS THE NAM (1/4SM) AND
COVERAGE STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY WITH KMCK
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF BETTER BL MOISTURE. I INTRODUCED A TEMPO IFR
GROUP DURING THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 11KT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD (WITH A
PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS ALONG TROUGH AXIS MORNING AND
MIDDAY)...EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ003-004-015-016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO
THE E AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY
W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE
N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY FM THE NNE. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E
AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY
W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE
N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ SCT SHRAS MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO FM THE NNE...AND ALG W/ THE CLDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGN. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E WHILE
DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HRS. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/PCLDY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY...W/ LMTD FORCING (AT BEST)...POPS WILL LARGELY
STAY BLO 20-30%. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL GENLY ALLOW THE SFC LOW ACRS THE
TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO SPREAD INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE SE/MID ATLC REGION. SOME INDICATION
THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WHICH COULD KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS GENLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE
LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS
ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES
TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK
TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN
AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM
THE 60S TO L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM
CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA
CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS
FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
...UPDATE...ISSUED SCA UNTIL 00Z FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 10 NM...AS BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN AOA 5 FEET SINCE SUNRISE.
EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS LO LVL FLOW WEAKENS.
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST
TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT
OVR THE RIVERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE WTRS FM THE WNW LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1110 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ SCT SHRAS MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO FM THE NNE...AND ALG W/ THE CLDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGN. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E WHILE
DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HRS. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/PCLDY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY...W/ LMTD FORCING (AT BEST)...POPS WILL LARGELY
STAY BLO 20-30%. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL GENLY ALLOW THE SFC LOW ACRS THE
TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO SPREAD INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE SE/MID ATLC REGION. SOME INDICATION
THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WHICH COULD KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS GENLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE
LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS
ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES
TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK
TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN
AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM
THE 60S TO L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM
CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA
CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS
FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY
INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE WASHING OUT. WEAK HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST NE
OR E FLO ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT ISLTD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. INVERTED TROF/SFC
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE
WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE RIVERS/CHES
BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW
DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WTRS FM THE WNW
LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN MN LATE THIS
AFTN OR EVENING MAY REACH NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AT CMX. CHANCE IS
SO LOW FOR RIGHT NOW...DO NOT HAVE IT IN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN MN LATE
THIS AFTN OR EVENING MAY REACH NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE
TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.
JP
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO MVFR.
HAZE: IMPROVING AS MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
AREA WINDS: WINDS IN THE 12 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND DECREASING BY
SUNSET.
WEATHER: A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AND THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME KSDY AND KGDV
LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THEM BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z.
FRANSEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TEENS IN ZONES 135 136 AND 137. TO ADD TO THE
CONCERN...COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPARKING LIGHTNING CONCERNS. THERE ISN`T A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH EITHER SO THAT ADDS TO THE CONCERN AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TO WHAT EXTENT
STRATUS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH FM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS THE FLOW WAS MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH SFC DPS
AVERAGING LOW/MID 60S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE ARE LOOKING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
INITIATED ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND THE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
MAIN AREA OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK WHEREAS RAP/NAM SUGGEST THE AREAS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE W/E TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OR DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 20S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
AND WILL BE NEAR 30 CELSIUS IN THE WEST. FULLY MIXED THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WITH HIGHER DPS IN PLACE...OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN OUR EAST...TO NEAR 100F IN THE WEST. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DPS IN OUR NE AND
WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER TODAY.
FARTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH DPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 PUSHING EAST WITH SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPS...AND STRATUS DOES LOOK TO ERODE QUICKER FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR 100F AND COULD SEE SOME
CU TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN AGAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. AT SOME POINT IN THIS PATTERN THE HEAT WILL TURN ON...BUT
WE NEED TO BE FREE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU BUT CHCS LOOK RATHER
SLIM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDELY-ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...THE
MOST IMMEDIATE AND CURRENTLY-PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
REVOLVES AROUND CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOONS OF FORECASTED 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHUNK OF
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO OBSERVE
AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
105-109 DEGREES. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HOT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING THAT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A
POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAIRLY-STRONGLY SUPPORTS
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR HERE THAT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS (FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS) LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY IN FACT BE OVER-DOING THE HEAT
SITUATION SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS...WHILE ITS A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT IT WILL IN FACT BE QUITE HOT ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE RECENT COOL STRETCH...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS...OR
MORE SO INTO THE MORE HAZARDOUS 105+ TERRITORY. AS A RESULT OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE COORDINATED WITH MOST SURROUNDING WFOS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW (LET
ALONE TUESDAY)...AND THUS ALLOW THE NEXT 1-2 SHIFTS TO HOPEFULLY
GAIN A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT BLAST.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THE NUMBER OF 12-HOUR PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HAS
INCREASED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE KEY WORD THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCES...AND CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TERRITORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
ALSO WHETHER OR NOT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME CAN BE OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONE MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ON ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...THE PREDOMINANTLY
SUBTLE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT) LENDS ITSELF
TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH (IF ANY) PERIODS ARE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL KEEP
OUT A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BARELY CLIPS SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
LOW-END 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ON BOTH THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS.
ALTHOUGH NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY THIS WAY BY ANY MEANS...ONLY 3 OF
THE 11 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF SLIGHT
POPS: WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FRIDAY DAYTIME AND SATURDAY DAYTIME.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN
MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING-LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BUT GENERALLY REMAINING CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
GENERALLY 14-16C EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD LARGELY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY TO ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DEPICTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS...ECMWF AND 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...AM
LARGELY DISCOUNTING THE 00Z/06 NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE QPF DURING THE DAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
OVERDONE IN RECENT WEEKS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LET THAT
RIDE FOR NOW IN CASE SOMETHING DOES MANAGE TO POP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT HOURS AS HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS DRY
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT STORM POTENTIAL
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HELPING USHER IN HOTTER AIR BUT
POTENTIALLY ALSO ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HEAT INDEX
SITUATION WAS LARGELY DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL HIGHS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE UPPER 90 AND MORE
SO 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
MORE OVER COLORADO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA TO MUCH MORE NORTHERLY VERSUS WESTERLY...AND BRINGS THE LOCAL
AREA PRONE TO SOME FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BISECT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE NORTH OF
IT. DESPITE THIS FRONT MOVING IN...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND HAVE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
90S NORTH TO 100-102 AGAIN IN KS ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY
RESULT IN OVERALL-HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN
MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. AS FOR POPS...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PASS THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT MIGHT RETROGRADE BACK
SOUTHWEST A BIT TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. KEPT THE DAY VOID OF
POPS...BUT KEPT WED NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB
CWA AS INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THESE POPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION. AT THE
SURFACE...FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...BUT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...IT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE DAY...AND EXTENDED/EXPANDED THEM INTO THE NIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMP-WISE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO
MID-90S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ALOFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE/RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WEST. WITH POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE A BIT...IF IN FACT ANY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PLACE. KEPT THE DAY DRY FOR NOW PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
PRELIMINARILY AIMED LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...LITTLE CHANGE ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY STARTING TO HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS/CANADA BORDER AREA...BUT WITH FORCING IN THE LOCAL AREA
QUESTIONABLE. WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT QPF SOLUTIONS...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS VERY LAST PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARY AIMED UPPER 80S MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
90S KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
QUIET WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E/SERN
CONUS. SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS/MVFR CIGS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS NOW
PRIMARILY AFFECTING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE N/NE OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TO WHAT EXTENT
STRATUS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH FM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS THE FLOW WAS MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH SFC DPS
AVERAGING LOW/MID 60S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE ARE LOOKING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
INITIATED ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND THE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
MAIN AREA OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK WHEREAS RAP/NAM SUGGEST THE AREAS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE W/E TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OR DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 20S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
AND WILL BE NEAR 30 CELSIUS IN THE WEST. FULLY MIXED THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WITH HIGHER DPS IN PLACE...OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN OUR EAST...TO NEAR 100F IN THE WEST. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DPS IN OUR NE AND
WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER TODAY.
FARTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH DPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 PUSHING EAST WITH SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPS...AND STRATUS DOES LOOK TO ERODE QUICKER FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR 100F AND COULD SEE SOME
CU TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN AGAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. AT SOME POINT IN THIS PATTERN THE HEAT WILL TURN ON...BUT
WE NEED TO BE FREE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU BUT CHCS LOOK RATHER
SLIM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDELY-ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...THE
MOST IMMEDIATE AND CURRENTLY-PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
REVOLVES AROUND CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOONS OF FORECASTED 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHUNK OF
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO OBSERVE
AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
105-109 DEGREES. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HOT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING THAT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A
POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAIRLY-STRONGLY SUPPORTS
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR HERE THAT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS (FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS) LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY IN FACT BE OVER-DOING THE HEAT
SITUATION SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS...WHILE ITS A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT IT WILL IN FACT BE QUITE HOT ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE RECENT COOL STRETCH...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS...OR
MORE SO INTO THE MORE HAZARDOUS 105+ TERRITORY. AS A RESULT OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE COORDINATED WITH MOST SURROUNDING WFOS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW (LET
ALONE TUESDAY)...AND THUS ALLOW THE NEXT 1-2 SHIFTS TO HOPEFULLY
GAIN A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT BLAST.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THE NUMBER OF 12-HOUR PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HAS
INCREASED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE KEY WORD THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCES...AND CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TERRITORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
ALSO WHETHER OR NOT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME CAN BE OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONE MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ON ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...THE PREDOMINANTLY
SUBTLE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT) LENDS ITSELF
TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH (IF ANY) PERIODS ARE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL KEEP
OUT A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BARELY CLIPS SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
LOW-END 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ON BOTH THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS.
ALTHOUGH NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY THIS WAY BY ANY MEANS...ONLY 3 OF
THE 11 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF SLIGHT
POPS: WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FRIDAY DAYTIME AND SATURDAY DAYTIME.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN
MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING-LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BUT GENERALLY REMAINING CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
GENERALLY 14-16C EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD LARGELY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY TO ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DEPICTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS...ECMWF AND 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...AM
LARGELY DISCOUNTING THE 00Z/06 NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE QPF DURING THE DAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
OVERDONE IN RECENT WEEKS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LET THAT
RIDE FOR NOW IN CASE SOMETHING DOES MANAGE TO POP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT HOURS AS HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS DRY
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT STORM POTENTIAL
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HELPING USHER IN HOTTER AIR BUT
POTENTIALLY ALSO ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HEAT INDEX
SITUATION WAS LARGELY DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL HIGHS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE UPPER 90 AND MORE
SO 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
MORE OVER COLORADO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA TO MUCH MORE NORTHERLY VERSUS WESTERLY...AND BRINGS THE LOCAL
AREA PRONE TO SOME FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BISECT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE NORTH OF
IT. DESPITE THIS FRONT MOVING IN...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND HAVE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
90S NORTH TO 100-102 AGAIN IN KS ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY
RESULT IN OVERALL-HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN
MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. AS FOR POPS...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PASS THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT MIGHT RETROGRADE BACK
SOUTHWEST A BIT TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. KEPT THE DAY VOID OF
POPS...BUT KEPT WED NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB
CWA AS INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THESE POPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION. AT THE
SURFACE...FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...BUT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...IT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE DAY...AND EXTENDED/EXPANDED THEM INTO THE NIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMP-WISE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO
MID-90S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ALOFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE/RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WEST. WITH POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE A BIT...IF IN FACT ANY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PLACE. KEPT THE DAY DRY FOR NOW PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
PRELIMINARILY AIMED LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...LITTLE CHANGE ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY STARTING TO HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS/CANADA BORDER AREA...BUT WITH FORCING IN THE LOCAL AREA
QUESTIONABLE. WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT QPF SOLUTIONS...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS VERY LAST PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARY AIMED UPPER 80S MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
90S KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND WAS
EXPANDING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
REACHED KEAR AND WERE HEADING TOWARD KGRI. CIGS WITHIN THE
STRATUS RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR. KEAR SHOULD SEE LOWER CIGS THAN
KGRI. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A VSBY RESTRICTION BUT IN
GENERAL THE LOWER VSBYS IN BR SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN RAPIDLY ERODING THE STRATUS THIS MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK WITH THIS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT IF TRENDS HOLD...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
SCATTER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
451 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TO WHAT EXTENT
STRATUS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH FM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS THE FLOW WAS MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH SFC DPS
AVERAGING LOW/MID 60S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE ARE LOOKING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
INITIATED ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND THE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
MAIN AREA OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK WHEREAS RAP/NAM SUGGEST THE AREAS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE W/E TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OR DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 20S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
AND WILL BE NEAR 30 CELSIUS IN THE WEST. FULLY MIXED THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WITH HIGHER DPS IN PLACE...OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN OUR EAST...TO NEAR 100F IN THE WEST. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DPS IN OUR NE AND
WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER TODAY.
FARTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH DPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 PUSHING EAST WITH SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPS...AND STRATUS DOES LOOK TO ERODE QUICKER FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR 100F AND COULD SEE SOME
CU TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN AGAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. AT SOME POINT IN THIS PATTERN THE HEAT WILL TURN ON...BUT
WE NEED TO BE FREE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU BUT CHCS LOOK RATHER
SLIM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDELY-ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...THE
MOST IMMEDIATE AND CURRENTLY-PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
REVOLVES AROUND CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOONS OF FORECASTED 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHUNK OF
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO OBSERVE
AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
105-109 DEGREES. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HOT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING THAT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A
POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAIRLY-STRONGLY SUPPORTS
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR HERE THAT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS (FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS) LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY IN FACT BE OVER-DOING THE HEAT
SITUATION SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS...WHILE ITS A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT IT WILL IN FACT BE QUITE HOT ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE RECENT COOL STRETCH...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS...OR
MORE SO INTO THE MORE HAZARDOUS 105+ TERRITORY. AS A RESULT OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE COORDINATED WITH MOST SURROUNDING WFOS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW (LET
ALONE TUESDAY)...AND THUS ALLOW THE NEXT 1-2 SHIFTS TO HOPEFULLY
GAIN A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT BLAST.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THE NUMBER OF 12-HOUR PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HAS
INCREASED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE KEY WORD THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCES...AND CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TERRITORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
ALSO WHETHER OR NOT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME CAN BE OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONE MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ON ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...THE PREDOMINANTLY
SUBTLE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT) LENDS ITSELF
TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH (IF ANY) PERIODS ARE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL KEEP
OUT A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BARELY CLIPS SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
LOW-END 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ON BOTH THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS.
ALTHOUGH NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY THIS WAY BY ANY MEANS...ONLY 3 OF
THE 11 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF SLIGHT
POPS: WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FRIDAY DAYTIME AND SATURDAY DAYTIME.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN
MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING-LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BUT GENERALLY REMAINING CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
GENERALLY 14-16C EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD LARGELY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY TO ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DEPICTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS...ECMWF AND 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...AM
LARGELY DISCOUNTING THE 00Z/06 NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE QPF DURING THE DAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
OVERDONE IN RECENT WEEKS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LET THAT
RIDE FOR NOW IN CASE SOMETHING DOES MANAGE TO POP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT HOURS AS HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS DRY
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT STORM POTENTIAL
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HELPING USHER IN HOTTER AIR BUT
POTENTIALLY ALSO ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HEAT INDEX
SITUATION WAS LARGELY DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL HIGHS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE UPPER 90 AND MORE
SO 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
MORE OVER COLORADO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA TO MUCH MORE NORTHERLY VERSUS WESTERLY...AND BRINGS THE LOCAL
AREA PRONE TO SOME FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BISECT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE NORTH OF
IT. DESPITE THIS FRONT MOVING IN...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND HAVE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
90S NORTH TO 100-102 AGAIN IN KS ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY
RESULT IN OVERALL-HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN
MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. AS FOR POPS...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PASS THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT MIGHT RETROGRADE BACK
SOUTHWEST A BIT TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. KEPT THE DAY VOID OF
POPS...BUT KEPT WED NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB
CWA AS INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THESE POPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION. AT THE
SURFACE...FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...BUT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...IT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE DAY...AND EXTENDED/EXPANDED THEM INTO THE NIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMP-WISE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO
MID-90S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ALOFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE/RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WEST. WITH POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE A BIT...IF IN FACT ANY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PLACE. KEPT THE DAY DRY FOR NOW PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
PRELIMINARILY AIMED LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...LITTLE CHANGE ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY STARTING TO HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS/CANADA BORDER AREA...BUT WITH FORCING IN THE LOCAL AREA
QUESTIONABLE. WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT QPF SOLUTIONS...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS VERY LAST PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARY AIMED UPPER 80S MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
90S KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
LONG THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THE HRRR AGAIN DEVELOPS STRATUS
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA WHEREAS THE NAM LLVL RH PROGS INDICATE THE BETTER
POTENTIAL TO THE EAST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND
INCLUDED SOME IFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING AROUND
MID DAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THIS GOES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND COLD FRONTS WILL BE WEAK PRESENTING MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE IDAHO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONVECTION...SKIES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
ENTIRE AREA STILL CAPPED.
FOR TONIGHT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS YET THIS AFTERNOON COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY TO SLIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. THE CONCERN WITH HOW LONG
ANY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LACK IN
FORCING AS THERE ISN/T A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH FOR ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FORCING. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA SO THINKING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE NAM AND THE RAP BOTH INDICATE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT NEITHER PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND AFTER BEING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHOWS SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z.
BIAS WOULD BE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR LATE EVENING AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER MODELS DID POORLY WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO...WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST BRINGING WARMER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 700MB...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASE TO 15-17C BY 00Z MONDAY WHEREAS RAOB DATA
FROM THIS MORNING /19.12Z/ SHOWED TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AT 10-12C.
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SO
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM EFFICIENTLY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GIVES HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN WITH REACHING THESE LEVELS OF
HEAT WILL BE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST AREAS WHICH WON/T HELP THE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THOSE LEVELS. BUT...SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
FULL MIXING WOULD BRING HIGHS TO 105 IN PLACES. THINK THIS IS TOO
HIGH AND WHEN LOOKING AT SREF PLUMES THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. KEPT THE FORECAST VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS SO KEPT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KIML TO KLBF TO KANW LINE. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BRING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 15 PERCENT. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO VALUES BEING RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD OF 100 DEGREES
ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REACHING THESE VALUES.
AS MENTIONED SOME PLACES MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP NEAR 15
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
DESPITE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...DON/T ANTICIPATE FIRE DANGER
GETTING TO A CRITICAL LEVEL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DRYLINE SURGE SUNDAY CONTINUES
MONDAY. A SLIGHT RETREAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS SD MONDAY SHOULD MOVE IT BACK EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CA THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY SETTING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE AFTN OR AT NIGHT
AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED AND OPERATE ABOVE 700 MB.
HEAT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100
AND HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY FOR HIGHS
90 TO 95. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED AND DRY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BACKS IN AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETREATS WEST. THIS SHOULD SET UP A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THIS ANCHORS THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRAWS COOLER AIR
WEST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. IN TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THE FCST AREA ALONG ABOUT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTL
CANADA.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT THE SIGNAL THE
MODELS GIVE IS DRY OWING TO WARM AIR ALOFT EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY STRATUS WILL
REFORM THROUGH THE NORTH PLATTE AREA AND THEN STREAM NORTH THOUGH
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TOWARDS VALENTINE AS IT HAS DONE THE LAST 4
MORNINGS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH STRATUS FORMATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH LATE MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THANKS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. AN SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WAVE MOVING OUT OF WRN SD CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE...THOUGH IT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. COULD CLIP THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...CONTINUING TO SEE SRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS BEEN STUBBORN OVER THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...KEEPING
TEMPS AT 3 PM IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN
AREAS WITH MORE SUN.
ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN QUESTION LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER ANY OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN DRIFT
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE CWA. MOST MODELS SAY ITS NOT
LIKELY...BUT THE 12Z 4KM IS SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL. INHERITED A
FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NEB...AND NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO TAKE THOSE POPS OUT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FURTHER EAST...BECOMING MORE
ORIENTATED N/S THROUGH THE ROCKIES. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ANY DISTURBANCES REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
850MB TEMPS INCREASING FROM THE MID TEEN TO LOWER 20C RANGE THIS
MORNING TO THE MID 20/NEAR 30C RANGE BY THE END OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WHAT DEWPOINTS END UP
BEING. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TO HAVE
DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE MID 90S. FURTHER
SW...MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT SHOWING DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
60S...AND EXPECTING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100. BOTH COMBINATIONS
RESULT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES. HELD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...WAS NOT GETTING WIDESPREAD
VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE MIDNIGHT
CREW TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK...WITH THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY FLATTENING OUT LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANY
PARTICULAR DAY FOR THE TIME BEING.
STARTING MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A PAIR OF VERY HOT
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE AXIS OF
A WEAK LLJ IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD
DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT THE CAP TO BE MOSTLY ERODED BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...WAS
ABLE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...EXPECT A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN
THE LOCAL AIRMASS AS A COOL FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
...WHICH SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT A MODEST COOLING FOR MID WEEK...AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5C IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LIKELY DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS LOW...THE GFS IS INDICATING A MCS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH
THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD IN THE EC...DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE WEEK...WITH YET
ANOTHER COOL FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING
POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
LONG THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THE HRRR AGAIN DEVELOPS STRATUS
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA WHEREAS THE NAM LLVL RH PROGS INDICATE THE BETTER
POTENTIAL TO THE EAST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND
INCLUDED SOME IFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING AROUND
MID DAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THIS GOES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE THAN RECENT WEEKS. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
IN QUITE A WHILE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SHIFT WEST AND ALLOW SEVERAL MOIST BACK DOOR FRONTS TO
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL TAPER OFF THE HEAT AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENING IS VERY LOW BUT WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL IMPACT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES THIS EVENING. THE
20Z SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CRATERING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
DESPITE ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BEST MOISTURE IS
POOLING AROUND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER THE SE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z GFS ARE PICKING UP ON A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING FROM THE DIVIDE TO NEAR THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. THE 06Z
WRF AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS EARLIER BUT BACKED OFF ON IT FOR
THE 12Z RUN. QPF VALUES COULD BE HIGH BENEATH A SLOW MOVING SOUTH
TO NORTH COMPLEX BUT PLACEMENT AND DURATION IS VERY QUESTIONABLE.
PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT. THE
OTHER WRINKLE IS THE HRRR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH AFTER 06Z UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS OCCUR AS THE LATEST IR SHOWS SOME VIGOROUS
CONVECTION ERUPTING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF SHOW WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE CURRENT
594DM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM SHIFTING NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND BUILDING TO 599DM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS INTRODUCES
ANOTHER TOSS UP AS HEIGHTS RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT AN AXIS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES WEST FROM WEST/CENTRAL TX. SEVERAL DAYS AGO
MODELS WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR MORE COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. MADE ONLY SUBTLE POP
CHANGES TO INCREASE VALUES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AT
LEAST HOT TEMPS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TREND TOWARD THE WEST WHILE YET
ANOTHER VERY STRONG SUMMER UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TRANSITION PERIOD FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE HIGH WARPS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. A STRONG BACK
DOOR FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER NM. THIS IS MOST CERTAINLY
NOT ANYWHERE NEAR THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
OVER THE CONUS DURING LATE JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE TODAYS SHOWER AND STORM CROP HAS BEEN A SLOW STARTER...IT MAY
END UP TO BE NEARLY AS GOOD OR BETTER COVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTN OR EVE. THE BULK
OF THE BURN SCAR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RISK OF HEAVY
RUNOFF OR WORSE THROUGH THE EVE. THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VARY A FAIR DEGREE
FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...PROBABLY SHIFTING A
LITTLE WAYS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH MON AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TUE AND WED. IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THEREAFTER...AS
TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE...BUT LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO AGREE PRETTY WELL THAT A MODERATE TO STRONG BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PUSH INTO AND ACROSS AT LEAST
EAST AND CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER WEST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MODERATE TO ROBUST INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR AND BEHIND ITS PASSAGE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND MON.
UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID TO LATE JULY CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION.
NO CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AT
LEAST...COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT MINIMUM RHS HAVE REACHED
MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS A FEW SITES ACROSS NORTH NM AND
EVEN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT BETWEEN
MON AND WED...BUT SUBSIDE SOME AGAIN BY LATE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND
HAINES INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP SOME MON AND PERHAPS
TUE...THEN DROP SOME WED AND THU BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP NEAR END OF
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL VARY FROM FAIR TO VERY
GOOD...DEPENDING IN LARGE PART ON WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ON A PARTICULAR DAY.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA
AND TSRA WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 05Z
MONDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL AS MT OBSCURATIONS. TAF SITES MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE CONVECTION ARE LVS...TCC AND SAF AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE GUP AND ROW.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 63 96 58 99 / 5 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 51 90 49 93 / 20 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 57 89 54 91 / 40 10 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 59 92 54 93 / 10 5 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 53 82 53 86 / 20 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 52 92 / 30 10 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 56 84 56 87 / 20 10 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 58 93 58 95 / 10 5 10 20
CHAMA........................... 47 83 47 86 / 20 30 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 85 60 87 / 40 20 10 20
PECOS........................... 58 84 57 84 / 30 30 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 52 82 / 30 30 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 48 74 49 75 / 30 50 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 78 44 80 / 30 60 20 30
TAOS............................ 53 85 52 88 / 30 20 20 20
MORA............................ 54 83 53 83 / 30 60 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 60 91 60 94 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 61 87 59 88 / 40 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 93 59 92 / 30 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 93 65 94 / 30 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 96 69 96 / 30 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 97 66 97 / 30 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 97 68 98 / 30 10 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 96 64 97 / 30 5 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 98 68 98 / 30 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 99 70 99 / 40 5 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 91 61 91 / 30 20 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 62 93 60 93 / 30 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 88 57 88 / 30 30 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 88 60 87 / 30 50 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 90 62 90 / 30 30 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 91 67 90 / 20 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 59 86 59 84 / 20 40 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 62 85 61 85 / 20 40 20 20
RATON........................... 61 89 59 89 / 30 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 61 91 60 91 / 30 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 86 57 85 / 30 60 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 67 94 67 95 / 20 20 30 20
ROY............................. 65 89 63 89 / 20 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 70 97 69 95 / 20 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 94 69 93 / 20 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 97 70 96 / 20 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 67 92 67 92 / 20 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 69 96 69 96 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 96 69 94 / 20 20 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 70 98 70 96 / 20 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 66 90 66 89 / 20 20 20 20
ELK............................. 64 84 63 84 / 20 20 30 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED MOST AREAS WITH A CLUSTER IN
SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY SOUTH OF KROW MOVING TO THE SOUTH. SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND
EASTERN PLAINS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BUT BEST CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO THE TEXAS
BORDER INCLUDING KCVS THUS LOW CIGS NOT INCLUDED AT KTCC AND KROW
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVE TO THE EAST WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH FEWEST
STORMS NORTHWEST AND BEST CHANCES CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN
QUITE A WHILE. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE INTRODUCED BY GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS VERIFY THE FOCUS OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVITY INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SERVE AS A SIGN OF THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 20Z LAPS DATA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS THERE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ABQ METRO.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER WAVE OVER THE BAJA WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO
TOWARD SW NEW MEXICO. GFS/NAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FOCUSES THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. THE H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO 596DM BY MONDAY SO COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
VERY HOT TEMPS ARE THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE H5
HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 600DM AND 700MB TEMPS APPROACH +21C. MANY AREAS
IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WILL AVERAGE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...ESPECIALLY
FROM ABQ SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DESPITE FEWER STORMS STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHERE EVER A
STORM FIRES UP.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN ON WHERE THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SHOWS
THE HIGH STAYING MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WOBBLES TO THE WEST. THIS STILL ALLOWS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FORMER EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS S CA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CIRCUMAMBULATE AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE MOIST NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP UNDER THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER NM WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY THE 500 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...CAUSING A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND NW AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH TRAVELS NORTHWARD OVER S CO ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE S AND SE.
AN UPPER LOW PASSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NW US BORDER WITH
CANADA IS FORECAST TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE FORM
OF A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. READINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES BEGINNING TUESDAY
IN THE EAST...BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. HAINES INDICES OF 5
SHOULD BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR VALUES OF 6 FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST PLACES.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET
MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED
SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL
MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING
TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW
REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK
ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL
GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL
WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL
MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO
VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG
CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A
BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A
5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WEDNESDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BRINGING A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
MONDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS THE SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION MAKING WHAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAIN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA EVEN THOUGH A SFC
RIDGE IS IN PLACE. EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC RESPONSES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR IN TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
HEIGHT THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO RISE. MONDAY TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S... AND BY TUES TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPR 80S. TUESDAY MAY FEEL QUITE MUGGY AS DEW PTS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BNDRY
BY MID-WEEK. ONLY DISCREPANCY IS GFS HAS SFC LOPRES RIDING THRU
CWA WED NGT LEADING TO POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT WHEREAS EC BRINGS
FROPA THRU RAPIDLY. DIFFERENCES SURROUND STRONG S/WV BEING SHOWN
BY GFS WHEREAS EC IS JUST A TROF MVG THRU THE NORTHEAST. APPEARS
TO BE THAT GFS IS SUFFERING FM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH REGARD TO
THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY, EXPECT LKLY POPS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z
THURSDAY AND HV NOT MADE ANY CHGS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.
AFT FROPA OCCURS 1020MB SFC HIGH WL BUILD IN THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. TWD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH EVENTUAL UL FEATURE DROPPING INTO
THE UPR MIDWEST THAN ITS 12Z RUN WAS. WL AWAIT FOR LATER GUIDANCE
BFR CHANGING FCST THIS FAR OUT IN THE DAY 7/8 TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL
MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING
TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW
REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK
ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL
GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL
WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL
MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO
VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG
CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A
BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A
5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER.
SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING
A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS AFTERNOON. AS
POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2
HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BUT SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNED WEST
OF THE AREA ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE
TODAY...AND KEEP A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT MEAN...HOWEVER...THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE DRY. A
WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS THROUGH EVE BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES
THIS TO FIZZLE OUT. THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE AS IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL
SHARPEN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN...CREATING AN OPEN GOM AND
HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TO WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS MOIST COLUMN WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST WITHIN A
RESIDUAL LAYER ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE PBL. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THIS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THIS IS ECHOED WELL BY HIGH
RES HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN INITIALIZING PRETTY WELL TODAY.
COOLING TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...INCREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE...AND CONTINUED WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. HAVE
FORECAST LOWS ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED AT
THE BEACHES...AND LOWS AROUND 70 FAR WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...IT COULD BE A WET DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND AN OLD FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. ADDITIONALLY...AND A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
MAXES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AROUND 70.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE TUESDAY BUT
THE OLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MAX BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE WRF EVEN BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MAXIMUM SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MINS AGAIN
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE SETUP TO THE WEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
ON FRIDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE CLASSICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW
MIDDLE 90S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG CAPE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOST SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN CONVECTION. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08Z...BEST CHANCE INLAND...AND ALTHOUGH A
LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
RE-DEVELOP LATE...AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
RAINY DAY WITH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY ONGOING EARLY
IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. VFR
WILL BE PREDOMINANT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...RATHER NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN HAS KEPT
WINDS LIGHT THUS FAR TODAY...WITH 10 KTS OR LESS SE WINDS OBSERVED
AT THE LOCAL BUOYS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND HAS ALLOWED A 9 SEC SE SWELL
TO BECOME PREDOMINANT IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SO ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/SE
WIND CHOP EXISTS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY
BECOME SW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT AROUND 15
KNOTS BUTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE
PERIOD OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AND WITH INCREASE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS..31
NEAR TERM...WEISS
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRIMMED EASTERN ND OUT
OF WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.
LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER CELLS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.
LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER CELLS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1053 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING TODAY. WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW. THIS ONE NOT AS
POTENT AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. AREA OF -SHRA MOVING FROM TUG FORK AND
TRI STATE AND INTO C LOWLANDS NEXT FEW HRS. BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS
OF HRRR HAVE INCREASED POPS GOING DETERMINISTIC TO FOLLOW THIS
THRU UP TO ABOUT I64 CORRIDOR WITH LKLY POPS BEFORE IT FADES.
WITH SOME HEATING AND INITIAL SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THINK THIS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE STOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
SLIDES INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS.
ANY MID LVL CAP SHOULD BE NIXED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES. ALSO SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM SSE FLOW SHOULD HELP AS WELL
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED LKLY POPS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTIONS OF THE C AND ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCHC ELSEWHERE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. ALSO HAVE THUNDER IN...GIVEN BUILDING
INSTABILITY PER MODELS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
STILL DEALING WITH 500MB TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODELS FAVORING THE COAL FIELDS AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR HIGHEST POPS...CORRESPONDING TO MOST
PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE. HAVE POPS LINGERING IN THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO
TONIGHT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND TODAY...AND BASED
ON HIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY USING A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A WEAK 925 MB
FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN
CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO
CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY. ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE
HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN
CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79
CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT
ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS
OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A
DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS
GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW
AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIXED BAG ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE DENSE FOG
FLOATING AROUND...PLUS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
DRIFTING NORTH. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES AT 500MB CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN WHEN AND WHERE TO PUT IN TAF AT
THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER CIGS MAY HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SE FLOW. ANTICIPATE MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SO HAVE
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING AFTER AROUND 06Z TONIGHT IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SHOWERS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AD
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH
A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS...SPRINKLES...INDICATED ON RADAR. PRETTY
MUCH JUST A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING IN PROGRESS BUT
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO SERN CANADA. I GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TODAY...AND MAY DOWNPLAY FURTHER AS MORE DATA
COMES IN. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES JUST DO NOT GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GIVE ME MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS/THUNDER
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY. THINKING IS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING TO POP UP WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AREAS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN THE HRRR WAS THE LONE HOLD-OUT IN
DRAGGING RAIN THROUGH THE LOWERS SUSQ AND PROVED TO BE RIGHT...ALL
MODELS AGREE TODAY IN JUST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT OVER THE WEST.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 75
AND 80...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER STABILITY
INCREASES...WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
SCENT ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
RISING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS /BUT STILL WEAK TROUGHINESS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE U70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AROUND 80F IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS WEAKLY TROFFY TO ZONAL WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LOCATED
NORTH OF U.S. BORDER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER
WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS MON-EARLY
WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEAK IN THE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT POLEWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TODAY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID DAY...WITH VFR
PREVAILING THRU THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS
INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M MVFR FOG/BR. WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...COLD FROPA LATER WED-WED NGT SHOULD BRING A GREATER
CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE JUST MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR ON-GOING TRENDS.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.
AS THE SUN SETS...THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FEW OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(1000-2000FT AGL) NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RAP PERFECT PROGS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF TROPICAL STRATUS WOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM
ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MESOSCALE OUTPUT THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEEDING TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE 03Z AMENDMENTS OR 06Z
ROUTINE TAFS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.
THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 98 78 99 78 / 0 5 5 10 20
WACO, TX 74 98 74 99 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 70 95 72 96 75 / 0 5 5 20 30
DENTON, TX 73 97 74 98 75 / 0 5 5 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 72 98 73 99 74 / 0 5 5 10 20
DALLAS, TX 78 98 79 99 78 / 0 5 5 10 20
TERRELL, TX 75 98 75 99 75 / 0 5 5 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 75 97 75 98 75 / 5 5 5 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 98 73 99 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 99 73 100 73 / 0 5 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.
AS THE SUN SETS...THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FEW OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(1000-2000FT AGL) NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RAP PERFECT PROGS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF TROPICAL STRATUS WOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM
ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MESOSCALE OUTPUT THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEEDING TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE 03Z AMENDMENTS OR 06Z
ROUTINE TAFS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.
THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 98 78 99 78 / 0 5 5 10 20
WACO, TX 74 98 74 99 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 70 95 72 96 75 / 0 5 5 20 30
DENTON, TX 73 97 74 98 75 / 0 5 5 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 72 98 73 99 74 / 0 5 5 10 20
DALLAS, TX 78 98 79 99 78 / 0 5 5 10 20
TERRELL, TX 75 98 75 99 75 / 0 5 5 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 75 97 75 98 75 / 5 5 5 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 98 73 99 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 99 73 100 73 / 0 5 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A
RESIDUAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID WEEK
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK WEDGE OF COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS SATURDAY GIVEN LACK OF RE-ENFORCING PRECIP...WITH
EVEN SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPCLY FAR SW VA INTO SE
WVA WHERE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE THE FAINT SHORTWAVE NOW WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SLIDES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND CAUSES
CLOUDS/SHRA TO FILL BACK IN. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME
WIDELY SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FEATURE
ESPCLY AFTER 18Z WHEN MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE OVER THE FAR WEST. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS TO INIT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADDED IN A BIT MORE TSRA I-77 CORRIDOR
LATER ON PER LATEST HRRR AND NCEP WRF. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
ISOLATED -TSRA SE PIEDMONT BUT APPEARS LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY
AND BETTER LIFT REMAINING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. OTRW KEEPING SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST ENDING UP FAR WEST LATER ON AND LEAST
ACROSS THE NE UNDER THE WEAKENING WEDGE. EVEN WITH SOME
SUN...COOLER MET MOS TEMPS STILL LOOK BEST SO KEPT VALUES CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH THE NW
NC BLUE RIDGE SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND CONTINUING TO
MAINTAIN A WEAK EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRODUCING SUBTLE COOL-AIR
DAMMING. WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT THE AIR MASS THE OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS
HOLDING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...00Z/20 RAOB FROM
KRNK HAD 1.48 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR DATE
IN JULY...ALSO RIGHT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR THE YEAR.
THAT SAID THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER WE CAN DEVELOP ANY
CONVECTION AT ALL TODAY AND THAT MAY DEPEND ON SOME BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT OVERCAST. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN FAR WEST WHICH WILL BE LESS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. MODEL CAPES FROM ARW_RNK REACH
1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AT BLUEFIELD SO PUT ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE WEST ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY FROM BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORT-WAVE AND WEAK LOW DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE MODEST...GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES ON A MEAN AREAL
BASIS. TEMPS TRICKY AS WELL TODAY WITH CLOUDS/JULY SUN GAME IN
FULL SWING. USED MODEL BLEND BUT A FEW HOURS OF EXTRA HEATING
COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH CURRENT MID-70S WEST TO LOW 80S EAST
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE AROUND A PERSISTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM ASSUMES A PSEUDO
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A
MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FORCE THIS FEATURE TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE GA/SC COAST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...PWS WILL RISE TO NEAR
2.0 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUCH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NW NC/FAR SW VA WHERE MOIST
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE...WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW NC AND FAR SW VA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ADVERTISED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF NW
NC/FAR SW VA COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...DYNAMICS/SHEAR ARE WEAK.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD ANYWHERE IN THE CWA
FOR THAT MATTER.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS/PWS AND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TEMPER ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS...70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR 90
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRI...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS ALWAYS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING.
THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION OWING TO
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AT A MINIMUM. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LINGERING
PSEUDO TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY UPSTREAM NW FLOW DISTURBANCES.
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WED...THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED A GFS/ECMWF
MOS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWER MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN OVER THE
WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
UNDER SOME BREAKS IN THE EAST. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE KBLF/KLWB AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR POSSIBLE INCLUDING AN ISOLATED -TSRA AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AND A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CROSSES. OTRW OTHER THAN A
VICINITY MENTION...KEEPING SHRA OUT OF THE TAFS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT SE WIND.
IMPULSE PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TAPER
OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LEFTOVER SHRA OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER CONTINUED SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN THE
SFC-7H WILL CAUSE CIGS TO AGAIN LOWER...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR AT KLWB AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME PATCHY -DZ
AND FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA MAY TEND TO LIMIT LOWER CLOUD
FORMATION ACROSS THE SE AS WELL AS AROUND KBLF WHERE WILL SEE WEAK
DOWNSLOPING.
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO TURN MORE EASTERLY ON
MONDAY ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO ENHANCE A BIT MORE. THIS MAY KEEP AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AROUND ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON
BUT EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS MAINLY
KTNB-KUKF TO KDAN. MORE BREAKS ALONG WITH VFR EXPECTED A BIT
SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF MVFR/VFR AT KBCB/KROA TO KBLF LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF THE FADING SE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH EARLY FOG IN SPOTS GIVING WAY TO BRIEF
VFR...THEN PERIODIC MVFR IN CLOUDS/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OF MVFR/IFR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. IMPROVED AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...EXPECT POSSIBLY KDAN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A RESIDUAL
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK WEDGE OF COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS SATURDAY GIVEN LACK OF RE-ENFORCING PRECIP...WITH
EVEN SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPCLY FAR SW VA INTO SE
WVA WHERE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE THE FAINT SHORTWAVE NOW WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SLIDES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND CAUSES
CLOUDS/SHRA TO FILL BACK IN. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME
WIDELY SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FEATURE
ESPCLY AFTER 18Z WHEN MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE OVER THE FAR WEST. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS TO INIT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADDED IN A BIT MORE TSRA I-77 CORRIDOR
LATER ON PER LATEST HRRR AND NCEP WRF. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
ISOLATED -TSRA SE PIEDMONT BUT APPEARS LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY
AND BETTER LIFT REMAINING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. OTRW KEEPING SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST ENDING UP FAR WEST LATER ON AND LEAST
ACROSS THE NE UNDER THE WEAKENING WEDGE. EVEN WITH SOME
SUN...COOLER MET MOS TEMPS STILL LOOK BEST SO KEPT VALUES CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH THE NW
NC BLUE RIDGE SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND CONTINUING TO
MAINTAIN A WEAK EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRODUCING SUBTLE COOL-AIR
DAMMING. WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT THE AIR MASS THE OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS
HOLDING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...00Z/20 RAOB FROM
KRNK HAD 1.48 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR DATE
IN JULY...ALSO RIGHT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR THE YEAR.
THAT SAID THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER WE CAN DEVELOP ANY
CONVECTION AT ALL TODAY AND THAT MAY DEPEND ON SOME BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT OVERCAST. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN FAR WEST WHICH WILL BE LESS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. MODEL CAPES FROM ARW_RNK REACH
1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AT BLUEFIELD SO PUT ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE WEST ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY FROM BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORT-WAVE AND WEAK LOW DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE MODEST...GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES ON A MEAN AREAL
BASIS. TEMPS TRICKY AS WELL TODAY WITH CLOUDS/JULY SUN GAME IN
FULL SWING. USED MODEL BLEND BUT A FEW HOURS OF EXTRA HEATING
COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH CURRENT MID-70S WEST TO LOW 80S EAST
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE AROUND A PERSISTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM ASSUMES A PSEUDO
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A
MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FORCE THIS FEATURE TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE GA/SC COAST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...PWS WILL RISE TO NEAR
2.0 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUCH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NW NC/FAR SW VA WHERE MOIST
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE...WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW NC AND FAR SW VA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ADVERTISED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF NW
NC/FAR SW VA COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...DYNAMICS/SHEAR ARE WEAK.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD ANYWHERE IN THE CWA
FOR THAT MATTER.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS/PWS AND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TEMPER ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS...70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR 90
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRI...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS ALWAYS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING.
THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION OWING TO
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AT A MINIMUM. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LINGERING
PSEUDO TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY UPSTREAM NW FLOW DISTURBANCES.
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WED...THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED A GFS/ECMWF
MOS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...
GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PSUEDO TROPICAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY INTO MONDAY...THEN RETROGRADE
NW BETWEEN EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND WESTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TRAPPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUPPORT -SHRA SKIRTING KDAN THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS...LIKELY VFR VSBYS. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...INCLUDING LWB/BLF/BCB...SPREADING EAST TOWARD ROA
AROUND SUNSET. FOR NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF TSRA TO BLF
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. OVERNIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS MOST
AREAS AFT 06Z IN STRATUS/FOG TO MVFR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR
BCB/BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH AND WEAK SE
FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE ROANOKE VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINING LIGHT SE
5KTS OR LESS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TOWARD NW NC MON AND STALL/SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE-WED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU. EXPECT SCT-NMRS DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE/COVERAGE THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRONTAL SYSTEM THU WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO ALL AREAS. PERIODS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AND DAILY -SHRA WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL SUCH PRONE
LOCATIONS...NAMELY LWB/BCB/LYH. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION...EXPECT POSSIBLY KDAN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER...DRIZZLE AND EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED TO PRODUCE THREE NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMA FOR THE DATE
YESTERDAY JULY 19 2014. BLACKSBURG...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD ALL
SET NEW DATE RECORDS...BY 6 DEGREES F IN THE CASE OF BLACKSBURG.
SEE WBCRERRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...PC/RAB
CLIMATE...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
918 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MCS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE 700-800 MB CAP WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE COMPLEX FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
SOUTHEAST. CORFIDI VECTORS AND MCS MOTION WOULD SUGGEST A PATH
MORE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THUS...THE
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT FOR THE AREA CONTINUES TO DROP.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 850-700
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT...AND THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 10-12Z...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSING MCS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THIS IDEA COULD OCCUR AS WELL...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY AFTER 08Z FOR WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOULD BE THE BIRTH OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT WILL RACE EAST TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS COMPLEX NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM...WHICH IS A MAJOR OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME...SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN THIS CONVECTION RACES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP AND WITHOUT A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DO. THE 17Z HRRR SHOWS A FEW
CELLS MAKING IN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE THE MCS COULD IMPACT THESE AREAS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAY CONCERN.
A COLD FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THE WARMEST AIR AT 925 MB MAKES IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 27
C. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THIS HEAT LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SO HAVE HAVE NOT ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT AGAIN THE CAP WILL BE A
MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE AREA
DRY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING QUIET AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT THIS FROM
FORMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND DEEPENS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD FORM A LONG-LIVED
COMPLEX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MISS
KRST/KLSE WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ELEVATED STORMS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRST/KLSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADDED A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND ANY STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ZT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
848 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE/LL SEE CONVECTION FIRE
WEST OF MADISON LATE TONIGHT...ALONG A NORTH/SOUTH LINE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG H8-H7 WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE HRRR HAS BEEN GENERATING A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
CONVECTION BY 11-13Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS...BUT IT APPEARS
WITH THE NEW UPPER AIR OBS BEING INGESTED...IT IS STARTING TO BACK
OFF...AND WITH GOOD REASON. THERE IS A VERY DEEP CAP FROM THE WARM
AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM
AIR ARRIVES. THE HRRR/NAM AND THE GFS ARE THE ONLY MODELS TRYING
TO FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTION WITH THE 18Z NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
THE ECMWF AND THE TWO CANADIAN MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY TONIGHT.
I PREFER THE DRIER LOOK BUT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OUT WEST JUST
IN CASE.
THE CAP FOR TOMORROW LOOKS VERY TOUGH TO BREAK AND I/M NOT SURE
WE/LL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTION TOMORROW. THE ECMWF/GFS AND
THE GEM-NH HAVE A VERY DRY LOOK...WHILE THE NAM GEM-REG AND THE
HIGH RES ARW/NMM CORE MODELS FIRE OFF A NARROW LINE OF STORMS WITH
THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS LOTS OF
CAPE...BUT THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL REALLY HAVE TO DO SOME WORK
TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP. A LOT OF CAPE MAY GO TO WASTE IF IT
CAN/T INITIATE THE CONVECTION. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS. LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY FIRE OFF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 21-22Z TUESDAY...MOVING EAST AND EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE BY 00-02Z WEDNESDAY. THE COVERAGE
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN STRONG CAPPING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. IT/S POSSIBLE
THE CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
GENERALLY A DRY ONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. NAM AND 4KM WRF/NMM MODELS BRINGING A SWATH OF QPF
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. GFS/00Z ECMWF
WERE MORE SPOTTY DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BATTLE STRONG CAP THAT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
DOES NOT SHOW IT...THOUGH LIKELY INFLUENCED BY SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES.
LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION...AS MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS WELL
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. KEPT LOWER END POPS GOING IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH RISING DEW POINTS. WINDS SHOULD BE UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ANY FOG TO LOW LYING AREAS AT WORST.
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY...LOWER 90S IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95 TO 100 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSE AND NEEDS FURTHER ANALYSIS BY NEXT SHIFTS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS FOR NOW.
MODELS BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL HAVE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CAP WILL
BE STRONG UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY CONVECTION WILL BE. WENT WITH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS
FOR NOW ON TUESDAY. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD. LARGE MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
25 TO 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL
DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
PULLED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...MOSTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT AND
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET WILLBE
FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GTLAKES BY 00Z. HENCE EXPECT LESS
OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
NEVER THE LESS...SLIGHT RISK STILL VALID AS BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO
40KTS LIKELY WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. SLIGHT
COOLING OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ERODE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
LATE AFTN WHICH WILL HELP REALIZE STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT.
HENCE EXPECT SCT CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
CDFNT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING ENDING THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING IN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
A QUIET PERIOD AS NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND UPSTREAM RIDGING
HOLD SWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.
LARGE UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PINCH OFF DEEPER
MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAKER TROF EXTENDING SWD.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN USHER WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
HOWEVER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
ADVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF WI DURING THIS PERIOD VCNTY OF SFC
WMFNT. FOR NOW WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRI NGT AND SAT. CONFIDENCE
FOR LATER PERIODS TRENDS DOWNWARD. GFS CARRIES UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CANADA SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WRN GTLAKES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS
IT PHASES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY. ECMWF HAD BEEN
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO WITH EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD
FLATTER NW STEERING FLOW SETTING UP OVER WI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MUCH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERING OVER CENTRAL GTLAKES.
MAY NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS IN ERN CWA IN LATER PERIODS DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH. AFTER TUESDAY...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. MOST LINGERING DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
SOUTH WINDS MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z TUESDAY TO ALLOW
FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KENOSHA AND PERHAPS MADISON AND WAUKESHA.
UNCERTAIN WITH THIS...SO ONLY KEPT VFR FOG IN KENOSHA TAF FOR NOW.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AT MADISON...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
IT HAPPENING.
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z TUESDAY AND 06Z WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH IFR VISIBILITIES.
USED VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN MILWAUKEE TAF FOR NOW.
MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING
WINDS.
MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG MAY AN ISSUE...THOUGH NOT
CONVINCED YET GIVEN THE WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY HIGHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME HIGH WAVES.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL OCCUR AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.
BEACHES...
MODERATE SWIM RISK WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND WAVES. SHOULD SEE HIGH SWIM
RISK WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOULD BE THE BIRTH OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT WILL RACE EAST TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS COMPLEX NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM...WHICH IS A MAJOR OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME...SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN THIS CONVECTION RACES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP AND WITHOUT A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DO. THE 17Z HRRR SHOWS A FEW
CELLS MAKING IN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE THE MCS COULD IMPACT THESE AREAS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAY CONCERN.
A COLD FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THE WARMEST AIR AT 925 MB MAKES IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 27
C. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THIS HEAT LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SO HAVE HAVE NOT ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT AGAIN THE CAP WILL BE A
MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE AREA
DRY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING QUIET AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT THIS FROM
FORMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND DEEPENS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD FORM A LONG-LIVED
COMPLEX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MISS
KRST/KLSE WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ELEVATED STORMS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRST/KLSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADDED A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 18-21Z...AND ANY STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
095.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW WI
THROUGH SCNTL MN. THERE WAS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WANES...
PER THE RAP ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
FOR SUNDAY...WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES BETTER AXIS OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS/OVER THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN...SO
THINKING ANY SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS
THAT AREA LEAVING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TOPPING OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. WILL FEEL A TAD MORE HUMID
THOUGH AS DEW POINTS CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MN/CENTRAL WI. ECMWF HAS SHOWN BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL
AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKES AIM INTO OUR AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS MCS WILL TRACK. LATEST 19.12Z RUN
TAKES THE MCS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME RESPONSE/QPF-WISE...BUT NOT AS
INTENSE. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE 1000-2000J/KG...MAINLY ABOVE 850MB
WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME... PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. SO...COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES GIVEN FORWARD MOVING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TAKE THE MCS MORE INTO OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING HEAT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/WEST
CENTRAL WI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SCENARIO FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/MAINLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWERING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION. LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD BASES ARE MAINLY IN THE
3500-7000FT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY QUIET JULY DAY...04Z IR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING SCT-BKN SKIES OVER MUCH OF COCHISE...GREENLEE...GRAHAM...AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE COOLEST CLOUD TOPS WERE IN
EXTREME SERN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG IN THE FORM OF
SOME REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NRN
SONORA MEXICO. AREA TEMPS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 90S IN THE WESTERN
DESERTS OF PIMA COUNTY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND
40S EXCEPT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SPOTS WERE A
BIT MORE MOIST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR WAS TRYING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SERN COCHISE CNTY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...LIKELY
HITTING ON THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE TWO
LOCAL WRF MODELS REMAINED DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. AS SUCH...HAVE CHOSEN
TO LEAVE IN ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THAT AREA...AS WE ARE LIKELY
TOO STABLE FOR ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GREATEST PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WRN
PORTIONS FILLING IN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS AS WE CLOSE IN
ON DAYBREAK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT
AGL EAST TO SOUTH OF KTUS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STARTING TUESDAY...THEN SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4
INCHES. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1.2 - 1.6 INCH RANGE FROM TUCSON TOWARD
AJO...WITH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN
THAT...EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY ANOTHER DOWN SWING IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...AND
DRIER PWATS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...WITH READINGS BELOW THE 1 INCH
MARK FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
BY FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SONORA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND THE HIGH BECOMES
ORIENTED FROM SRN UTAH ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL GIVE ARIZONA A FAIRLY LONG EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY FOR A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
REMNANT MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. SO FAR...CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN HOLDING DOWN THE HEATING...WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM HITTING 100 ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
FARTHER EAST A BIT MORE SUN WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HIT
LOWER 100S OUT TOWARDS LAA. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS BEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS TO LAS ANIMAS TO KIM. IF
DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE LOWER 50S...THEN 1500 J/KG (OR A LITTLE
BETTER) OF CAPE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER
SHEARS ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. BUT WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1500+ J/KG...GUSTY
OUT FLOW WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH...AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE WALDO IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...SO THIS AREA WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WALDO WILL BE MISSED
TODAY.
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND MONSOON
PLUME APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS MEAGER...SO OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF DEW POINTS CAN INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AS NAM12 SUGGESTS...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AGAIN. HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING THE 100+ TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED
BY GUIDANCE FOR PUB. SOME LOWER 100S OUT ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT KEPT TEMPERATURES A TAD LOWER FOR PUB
AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HOT LATELY AND EASTERLY WINDS DON`T
USUALLY BODE FOR SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES. AS FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ON THE BURN SCARS...THIS STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD...HOT (600DM) UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME BEING SHUNTED INTO THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
WESTERN COLORADO...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GFS LIKELY OVERDONE IN ITS QPF FIELD...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CAP TO HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE A TAD COOLER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTH AND
WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
REMAINING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
STATE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH BROAD NORTHWEST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS KEEPING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z TUE WITH
LIGHT WINDS. TUE AFTERNOON...TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE DAY.
INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT KALS FOR A FEW HRS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT NEAR ANY STORMS.
FOR KCOS...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
STORMS AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS LATE...MAINLY 22Z-03Z PERIOD...SO
INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN STORM THREAT. LEFT VCTS OUT OF KPUB ANS BEST LIFT MAY STAY
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...THOUGH CONVECTION ALONG PLAINS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS OUTFLOW WINDS COULD HELP
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED TSRA FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
216 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a decaying, wavy,
quasi-stationary, front from SC, through central GA, extending
southwestward to a broad, 1015 mb low centered over southern MS.
There was an east-west trough along I-10 in the FL Panhandle.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a cutoff low centered over
southwest GA, with a well-defined dry slot wrapping around the
west and southwest flank of the low, over the FL Panhandle and
adjacent coastal waters.
The GFS and ECMWF forecast the upper low to translate slowly
westward, providing weak Q-G forcing across GA & AL today. It
also appears that there will be slightly more deep layer moisture
in this region as well. Although they differ somewhat in
magnitude, the consensus of MOS and the Convection Allowing Models
(ECAM) PoPs generally range from 40 to 60% across our forecast
area today. The most concentrated area of deep moist convection
will initially be across Apalachee Bay and the FL Big Bend/North
FL this morning. This activity will gradually move inland and
diminish later this morning, but scattered storms will develop
across GA and AL this afternoon in association with the forcing
from the upper low and any mesoscale boundary interactions that
occur. Given the very weak wind field aloft and lackluster
forecast SBCAPE values (1500 J/kg or less), we`re expecting a less
than 5% chance of severe storms (within 25 miles of a point)
today. We expect high temperatures to be a little warmer today
than in recent days- around 90.
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
A mid-upper level low will continue to retrograde westward along
the Gulf coast and eventually get sheared out near coastal
Louisiana or Texas by Thursday. For Wednesday, this will allow for
a ridge to build into the area with negative vorticity advection
in those same layers. Computer models are in good agreement in
showing suppressed convective activity on Wednesday despite PWATs
very close to seasonal normals (around 1.9"). While this may be
the case, we think that the approx 20% PoPs the models are
advertising for the afternoon hours are too low without any
substantial drying - either at the surface or aloft. By Thursday,
another trough begins to dig into the region from the northwest
and could provide some additional large scale forcing for storms.
Therefore, we indicated scattered thunderstorms both afternoons
with PoPs around 30-40% in most areas. Temperatures should be
warmer than in recent days, with highs in the mid 90s likely.
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The large scale pattern commences rather amplified with ridging
over west, troughing over east and ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc.
At surface, ridge from Wrn Atlc to over local region with cold
front draped over mid-south. During the rest of the period, Wrn
ridge shifts Ewd with downstream trough pivoting and deepening Ewd
over local region on Fri before lifting Newd and flattening Sat
into Sun. Front inches swd shunting Gulf ridge further Swd
allowing for a return to a more WLY flow and normal summer time
sea breeze dominated regime. Will go with generally 30-40% aftn/eve
POPs thru the period. Expect highs generally in the low to mid
90s, lows low to mid 70s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] The latest HRRR runs and GFS MOS suggest
a good chance of low-end MVFR/IFR CIGS through mid morning at
every site but KTLH. Conditions will improve to VFR by late
morning, outside of scattered TSRA. Initially the TSRA will be
concentrated near KTLH, but will spread to KVLD, KABY, and KDHN by
afternoon. The probability of TSRA at each terminal is 40-50%
today, except 30% at KECP. Of course gusty winds and brief period
of poor VIS/CIGS are expected with the stronger storms, but we
were not yet confident enough to explicitly forecast these
conditions at any site on the 06 UTC TAF package.
&&
.Marine...
Winds and seas should be relatively calm during the period - winds
generally 10 knots or less and seas generally 2 feet or less.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected this week.
&&
.Hydrology...
The Shoal River at Mossy Head briefly approached flood stage early
yesterday morning, but the river levels are now falling. There
will likely be some heavy rain rates today, and the storm motion
will be unusually slow (around 5 kt). This would suggest at least
some potential for flooding. However, there appears to be one
negative factor that will keep the risk of flooding rather low-
the influx of dry air aloft from the south and west. This should
help dampen deep moist convection somewhat, preventing updrafts
from persisting over any one location for too long. We think the
probability of exceeding local flash flood guidance today is about
5% (within 25mi of a point), which is not high enough for a watch.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 90 72 95 73 95 / 50 30 50 20 50
Panama City 87 75 90 76 90 / 30 20 30 20 30
Dothan 89 72 93 73 93 / 40 20 40 20 40
Albany 90 72 94 73 94 / 40 40 30 20 30
Valdosta 90 70 96 72 96 / 40 40 40 20 40
Cross City 90 71 94 73 92 / 60 30 40 20 40
Apalachicola 87 74 88 76 88 / 50 20 30 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.
A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.
A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 72 95 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 100 72 96 70 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 98 70 97 70 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 100 70 97 70 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 102 72 93 70 / 10 20 10 10
P28 101 74 97 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.
A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.
It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecast. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cool down is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 72 95 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 100 72 96 70 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 98 70 97 70 / 10 20 10 10
LBL 100 70 97 70 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 102 72 93 70 / 20 20 10 10
P28 101 74 97 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
...Updated synopsis and aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
At 00z Tuesday a 500mb high was located over northeast New Mexico
with an upper level ridge axis extending northeast of this high
into Illinois. One upper level trough was evident at over
northwest Kansas with another, more subtle, upper wave appearing
over Nevada near the nose/left exit region of a 250mb jet.
Anticyclonic flow was present at the 700mb level with temperatures
of +15c at Dodge City and +16c at Amarillo and North Platte at 00z
Tuesday. A area of higher 850mb temperatures, +28c to +31c, were
located from northwest Colorado into eastern South Dakota. This
was also located just ahead of a cold front which extended from
eastern Wyoming to eastern North Dakota. 850mb temperature at
Dodge City at 00z Tuesday was +27c.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas. In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms. After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight. Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.
On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control. However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough. This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed. Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.
It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 95 70 98 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 72 96 70 99 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 70 97 70 101 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 70 97 70 101 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 72 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
P28 74 97 72 94 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
327 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST GOES E SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG HANGING ALONG ROCKLAND AND OFFSHORE
ATTM. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CREEP INTO THE
COASTAL REGIONS THIS MORNING AND HANG ON INTO MID MORNING.
THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE HRRR IS TOO FAST.
THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BEYOND 12Z.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING.
OTHER THAN THAT, HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.
SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...BROUGHT STRATUS THAT IS RESIDING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE IN ALONG THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM HAD THIS HANDLED OK BUT A BIT QUICK. THEREFORE,
BACKED THE TIMING BACK BY ABOUT 2 HRS. BROUGHT HR LY TEMPERATURES
IN LINE W/THE CURRENT READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.
OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND QUITE HUMID TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG SSW FLOW
WAA HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN AND EXTREME NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING TO
TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THAT
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
FAR NW FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FCST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EARLY TO MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK OR NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SB/ML CAPE VALUES TO BRIEFLY REACH UP TO AS
HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN FCST
AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL
TIMING THE PAST 24 HRS WHICH IS ALSO POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
CONVECTION IS FROM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR SIM Z GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAINLY ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KTS OFF LATEST SREF GUIDANCE... ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEFLY
HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AERA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PASSES BY WELL
NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IS RATHER
LOW/MARGINAL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FROM ERN IOWA
TO INDIANA. HOWEVER WE MAY STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. BEST POPS WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
HAZE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A HUMID AIRMASS SPREADS IN FROM
THE WEST TONGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AS THE TRACK THROUGH WI TONIGHT...THE CHANCE
OF THEM MAKING IT TO MI IS NOT ZERO. THEY WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT. A BETTER RISK FOR STORMS AND IMPACTS EXISTS
GENERALLY AFTER 22Z ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM
THE NORTHWEST THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FROM GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
3 TO 5 FEET WITH HIGHEST WAVES WITHIN THAT RANGE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF KMKG UP TOWARD THE POINTS. STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST WAVES WILL
OCCUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE HIGHEST WAVES WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WE ARE EXPECTING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL
WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WITH A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT...FLOODING IS A GREATLY MITIGATED THREAT. RIVERS
HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY AND ASIDE FROM A TEMPORARY BUMP IN SOME
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.
JP
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
234 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT THRU A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WSW FLOW ALOFT...AND PER LATEST RAP H5 ANALYSIS OUR
HEIGHTS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO RISE. AT 2 AM THERE EXISTS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CWA BUT THERE IS MORE UPSTREAM FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MT TO NORTHERN NV. HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY
BUT IN THE MEANTIME AREAS OF PV INTERACTING WITH PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME AFTN DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP. FEEL THAT BY LATE AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING THE PV WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH AND MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO ADDRESS TODAY EXISTS IN OUR EAST. SLOWER
ONSET OF HEIGHT RISES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS EAST. ASCENT WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT...AND
A LOW LEVEL JET BY EVENING...WITH 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS. HAIL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE HIGH PWAT AIR IN PLACE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING IN OUR EAST IN THE HWO/GRAPHIC.
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 590S...CORRESPONDING WITH 700MB TEMPS TO NEAR
+16C. THIS TONGUE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SELY SFC FLOW
DEVELOPING...SO IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP WITH ISOLD TSTMS
MENTIONED IN OUR EAST. OUR CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS WILL BE MUCH
DRIER WITH DEEPER MIXING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FOR MOST
OF THIS AREA BUT KEPT ISOLD POPS IN OUR NW...CLOSER TO COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WESTERN MT. COULD SEE SOME
RIDGE RUNNER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
FEEL THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF
2014 FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED WE SHOULD
SEE SOME AREAS REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK...PERHAPS BILLINGS. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 101F MAY BE APPROACHED AT LIVINGSTON...
ESPECIALLY IF SW WINDS MIX OUT. RECORDS AT BILLINGS...MILES CITY
AND SHERIDAN APPEAR TOO HIGH TO BE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE...THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON OUR DRYING
FUELS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY BY THURSDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THURSDAY STILL SHAPING UP FOR A POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ALOFT CRASH THROUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONSISTENCY
REMAINS VERY GOOD WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO INCREASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +28C TO 30C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500 MB. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS COMBINED
WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS...WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY FOR DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR NEAR ANY STORMS.
THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/098 066/098 057/085 057/085 058/087 059/090
2/T 11/U 11/N 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 090 055/099 056/091 049/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
2/T 21/B 11/N 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 092 059/100 062/101 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
2/T 11/U 11/G 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 090 065/098 067/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
3/T 22/T 21/U 11/U 11/N 11/U 11/U
4BQ 090 061/098 064/100 058/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
3/T 22/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 086 060/091 062/096 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
4/T 32/T 22/T 21/U 11/N 11/U 11/U
SHR 090 057/098 059/098 053/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
2/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATE
TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY SATURDAY...THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EASTERN NC REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES
WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AS IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KMHX SOUNDING SHOWING
PWATS UP TO 2.25". AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST...WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...THEN
TRANSITION INLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...AROUND 15 KT OR LESS...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MBE VELOCITY WEAK THIS MORNING...LESS THAN
10 KT...SUGGESTING HEAVY PRECIP AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING AREAS. MBE VELOCITY
INCREASES TO 15-18 KT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE THREAT TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID WEST TONIGHT BRINGING SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WINDS BECOME S/SW. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AS IS A TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TREND IN THIS PATTERN.
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER AREA BETWEEN UPR RIDGE AND
UPR LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS GULF COAST. SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL
ANY TIME...THUS CONTINUED 20-40 POPS...WITH MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED
WED AFTN ACRS INLAND SECTIONS.
RIDGE BREAK DOWNS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WV TROF
AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ON THE COAST WED
NIGHT WITH PSBL CONVECTION MOVING IN OFF WATER. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR
THU AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS INLAND ASSOC WITH THE SHT
WV...APPROACHING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. GOOD CHC
POPS ALL AREAS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND SHT WV TROF
MOVING INTO AREA.
MODELS INDICATE SFC FRONT STALLS JUST S OF AREA SAT MORNING WITH
SCT CONVECTION PSBL ACRS SRN SECTIONS WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION.
FRONT LIFTS BACK N ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT LOW 20/30 POPS DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE EXTDD FCST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS RTES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 BRINGING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT PGV. PGV MAY SEE
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTING STRATUS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF HWY 70.
STRATUS WILL LIFT AROUND 12-13Z WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS RTES AGAIN TODAY WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE SEVERITY OF STORMS BUT THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS DAYTIME HEATING AND AREAS OF FOG
OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AT TAF SITES THROUGH PERIOD WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THU AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THE PREVIOUS
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING E/SE WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN BECOME SWLY AROUND 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS CONTINUING AROUND 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON WED
THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. PSBL SMALL CRAFT CONDS FOR SEAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS SW WINDS
INCR TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO NLY AND
SEAS DIMINISH BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING COMPACT INTENSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF FSE. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD
EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NW MN EARLY
THIS AM. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT HAS NEARLY EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED SEVERE
MENTION TO OUR EASTERN FA BORDER AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRIMMED EASTERN ND OUT
OF WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.
LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GFK AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO MOVING INTO THE TVF AREA AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THESE WINDS
INTO BJI IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE WILL SEE SOME ISOLD MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ027-030.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-013>015-
022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING SOME ECHOES DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LINE ON THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. LOOKING AT THE MESO SCALE MODELS THIS
MORNING...THE HRRR AND RAP ARE PRETTY MUCH USELESS AS THEY TURN
THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT WAY TOO QUICKLY. THE
22.00Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND CONTINUE MOVING IT EAST TAKING IT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE 22.00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDING FOR LADYSMITH...THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE CAP HOLDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING
ECHOES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THESE ARE JUST STARTING TO GET
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE GROUND. THE HI-RES NMM SHOWS THE ECHOES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO BEND MORE OFF TO THE EAST BUT DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THEM
EXPANDING AND KEEPS THEM SCATTERED. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH DOWN TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT FOR THIS
MORNING. TO HANDLE THE LIGHT ECHOES...WILL SHOW ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
AS FAR SOUTH AS I90 UNLESS OBSERVATIONS START INDICATING THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...THE FORCING FROM THIS WAVE
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL IT HAS MOVED PAST THE AREA. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
BLUE RIVER INDICATES THE CAP WILL HOLD IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE 22.00Z GFS HOLDS IT INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
CAP REMAINING IN PLACE...ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THIS EVENING
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST IN CASE THE NAM IS CORRECT
AND THE CAP DISSIPATES A LITTLE SOONER...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO A
20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ARE A PRETTY GOOD
BET. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN GET INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL BE ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY TO HANDLE THIS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GETS
FLATTENED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COMES FROM
HOW FAST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CUT THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 22.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND 22.00Z GEM ON BRINGING THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...ALL OF THEM SHOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN WITH THE WAVE AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE GFS AND
GEM BEING A LITTLE SLOWER...WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW STILL LOOK TO COME THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STAYING NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE
TAFS. A BKN BAND OF 3-4KFT CUMULUS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF LSE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SWINGS WINDS AROUND THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MCS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE 700-800 MB CAP WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE COMPLEX FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
SOUTHEAST. CORFIDI VECTORS AND MCS MOTION WOULD SUGGEST A PATH
MORE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THUS...THE
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT FOR THE AREA CONTINUES TO DROP.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 850-700
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT...AND THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 10-12Z...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSING MCS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THIS IDEA COULD OCCUR AS WELL...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY AFTER 08Z FOR WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOULD BE THE BIRTH OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT WILL RACE EAST TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS COMPLEX NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM...WHICH IS A MAJOR OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME...SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN THIS CONVECTION RACES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP AND WITHOUT A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DO. THE 17Z HRRR SHOWS A FEW
CELLS MAKING IN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE THE MCS COULD IMPACT THESE AREAS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAY CONCERN.
A COLD FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THE WARMEST AIR AT 925 MB MAKES IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 27
C. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THIS HEAT LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SO HAVE HAVE NOT ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT AGAIN THE CAP WILL BE A
MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE AREA
DRY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING QUIET AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT THIS FROM
FORMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND DEEPENS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STAYING NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE
TAFS. A BKN BAND OF 3-4KFT CUMULUS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF LSE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SWINGS WINDS AROUND THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ZT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2014
.Synopsis...
An upper wave moves over NorCal today with showers and potential
thunderstorms. Then expect a warming trend Wednesday into the
weekend.
&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
An upper level disturbance is lifting northward off the central CA
coast this morning. Yesterday, this wave didn`t appear to be too
unstable, and we only really had thunderstorm activity over the
northern mountains with the max heating of the afternoon.
However, looking at HRRR Composite Ref, NAM/GFS ModTT forecast
procedures, as well as actual isolated showers/thunderstorms west
of Monterey and Half Moon Bays, the instability is a bit more than
anticipated this morning. Therefore, we have added isolated
showers/thunderstorms this morning for the NW side of our forecast
area from Lake/Yolo through Shasta/western Plumas counties. Then we
kept the afternoon thunderstorm mention over just the northern
mountains to include some of the Sierra. These storms this morning
are moving at nearly 40 mph to the NNE. They are making it into
San Fran Bay Area as of 410 am and we expect showers to be over
Lake/Yolo county area around sunrise.
The short wave disturbance moves out of the area tonight and by
Wednesday, the atmosphere is more stable under the southwest flow
aloft with the main upper level trough just offshore of NW CA. Wind
will likely be breezy through the Delta and over the mountains
Wednesday with a shot at seeing some marine stratus advect into and
develop within the southern Sacramento Valley early in the
morning. So we will have to wait until Thursday to really see the
max temperatures climb and humidity lower. JClapp
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Tuesday)
Ridging building in from the Desert SW over NorCal through the
extended period resulting in warming temperatures. Some triple
digit heat is possible in portions of the Central Valley by Friday
becoming more widespread over the weekend. Models showing
relatively dry atmosphere into the first half of the weekend but
show some monsoonal moisture advecting northward. The GFS/EC have
southeast flow aloft with an embedded wave over southern/western
NV on Sunday/Monday with a hint of monsoon moisture creeping up
the Sierra. The timing of any moisture surge is debatable at this
time, but the main theme is the increasing potential for another
round of a subtropical surge and resultant thunderstorm
development, mainly over the mountains, late in the forecast
period. JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
General VFR conditions today with scattered mid clouds, though
isolated SHRA/TSRA possible over the Coastal and northern mtns, and
extending into western and northern portions of the Sacramento
Valley. Southerly Valley winds gusting to 20 kt north of I80, 18z-
06z. Delta Breeze gusting to 30 kt. EK
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM
LAND. LATEST RUC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 500MB PLOT SHOWS INVERTED
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER FLORIDA AND UNDER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL SUPPORT...VORTICITY...
IS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THUS CONVECTION WILL BE BY SEA BREEZE
INITIATION AND BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING ON THROUGH THE EVENING.
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MEAN THAT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY DOWN BURSTS WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA PER THE 6AM AND 8AM SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND -6C WHILE TO
THE NORTH...TALLAHASSEE AND TO THE SOUTH...KEY WEST... THE 500MB
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER AT -8.5C AND -7.1C RESPECTIVELY. YESTERDAY
PROVED THAT SMALL HAIL MAY NOT BE RULED OUT EVEN WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -6C TO -7C RANGE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...CUT OFF LOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NUDGE WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AS A RESULT...WHICH SHOULD LIFT A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OUT TO
THE NORTH OR GRADUALLY WASH IT OUT. THIS WEAK TROUGH HAS BEEN
FOCUSING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING. THIS MAY CONTINUE FROM THE CAPE
NORTH INTO LATE MORNING.
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 INCHES OR GREATER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE...DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST WHICH MIGHT KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND STRONGER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THEREFORE EXPECT BOTH COAST AND INLAND TO
GET A RATHER HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOS POPS ARE
50-60 PERCENT BUT WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER A LITTLE PAST SUNSET SO WILL MATCH
THE 20-30 PERCENT MOS POPS FOR THIS EVENING.
WED-THU...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GOMEX WILL RETROGRADE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...THEN EVENTUALLY WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME STRETCHED OUT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES THROUGH THE TEXAS EAST COAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS/FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
SUPPRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DAILY INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WARM FROM -6C
TO -7C BUT PARAMETERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL POP CHANCES IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND ERRATIC. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AT THE COAST WITH LOW TO MID
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 98F-103F EACH AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FRI-MON...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS
DURING THIS TIME AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...THE DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME AND
VARIOUS OTHER AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A 40 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...WHILE REMAINING LIGHT...WILL STILL PUSH STORMS TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST PRESENTING ISSUES FOR MARINERS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LINE WITH NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
BRIEF...TOO SHORT EVEN FOR TEMPO...LOW CEILINGS IN THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WORK THEIR WAY DOWN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOCAL WRF_ARW3 MODEL RUN
SUGGESTING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...19Z-22Z...STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LITTLE EARLY AT THE COAST.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IFR WILL AFFECT THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHOWERS/STORMS GET
GOING DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO ABOUT AN HOUR OF IFR IN HEAVY RAIN...A FEW
STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...
THE TWO NOAA BUOYS AT 20 AND 120NM OFFSHORE WERE RECORDING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND LONG PERIOD 3
TO 4 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE COAST WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS. SEA BREEZE MAY
BACK THE NEARSHORE WINDS MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MORNING UPDATE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...A SOUTHEAST BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS BUT REACHING 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED NORTHWARD MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WED-SAT...THE FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES EACH
DAY WITH FORECAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND MARCH INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD...EXCEPT NEAR
10-12 KTS NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE
FORMATION. NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL KICK UP FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR 15 KTS
EACH EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SSE
TO SSW. SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STORMS NEAR THE COAST/NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF
STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 75 91 75 / 60 20 40 30
MCO 92 75 93 75 / 60 20 50 30
MLB 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 40 30
VRB 89 75 89 75 / 60 30 40 20
LEE 92 76 94 77 / 60 20 50 30
SFB 93 77 94 77 / 60 20 50 30
ORL 92 77 94 77 / 60 20 50 30
FPR 88 74 88 75 / 60 30 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
PUBLIC SERVICE...CARTWRIGHT
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND QUITE HUMID TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUR MAIN
FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON. BAND OF CLOUDS LEFT OVER
FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST LAST NIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER
OF THE CWFA. THIS IS MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PER THE RADAR
AND SFC OBS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED YET OVERHEAD.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL SEE A
DECENT CHC OF CONVECTION AFTER AROUND 21Z OR SO...AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA THEREAFTER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY
AXIS IS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WRN
U.P. TO NE IA AS OF 15Z THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO OUR
AREA AS THE LLJ/MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLIDES IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOP OVERHEAD BEFORE THAT TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
GREATLY CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE WRN AREAS OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML AND MU CAPE NOSE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z AND
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z VIA AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS DEFINITELY WEST OF THE AREA...AND THE BETTER
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WE DO SEE A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SD THAT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
WE BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING OF SPC PER THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
TRENDED MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EXPECTED TIME OF CONVECTION
PEAKING AT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS...HIGHEST WEST WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH...SO A WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH 40 KNOTS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A 30+ KNOT LLJ PRESENT DURING
THE TIME OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY
THICK CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER. WE ALSO AGREE WITH SPC ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS AND
0-1KM HELICITY VALUES 150+ M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG SSW FLOW
WAA HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN AND EXTREME NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING TO
TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THAT
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
FAR NW FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FCST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EARLY TO MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK OR NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SB/ML CAPE VALUES TO BRIEFLY REACH UP TO AS
HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN FCST
AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL
TIMING THE PAST 24 HRS WHICH IS ALSO POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
CONVECTION IS FROM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR SIM Z GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAINLY ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KTS OFF LATEST SREF GUIDANCE... ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEFLY
HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PASSES BY WELL
NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IS RATHER
LOW/MARGINAL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FROM ERN IOWA
TO INDIANA. HOWEVER WE MAY STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. BEST POPS WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY NOON. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE AT MKG.
THE FOCUS THIS EVENING FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE LINE OF SCTD
TSTMS WHICH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SRN LWR MI FROM 23Z-06Z. THE
STORMS WILL IMPACT MKG FIRST AND JXN LAST... BUT ANY ONE LOCATION
SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM OTHERWISE LIGHT
MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE HIGH DEW POINTS
NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT.
STORMS WILL EXIT BY 06Z... BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
BEACH HAZARDS EVENT UNDERWAY AND GOING DOWN AS EXPECTED THUS FAR.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 4.6 FOOT WAVES AND THE
WEBCAM THERE IS SHOWING SOME PRETTY BIG WAVES AT TIMES SMACKING
THE SOUTH BREAKWALL. HOFFMASTER STATE PARK HAD 4 FOOTERS IN THEIR
MORNING BEACH OB. IN LOOKING AT THE GRAND HAVEN WEBCAM FEELING OK
WHERE WE HAVE THE BREAK IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA ZONE (GRAND HAVEN) WILL BE BORDERLINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WAVES HOVERING AROUND THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
HAVE OPTED TO JUMP INTO THE NORTH FLOW PORTION OF THE EVENT NOW AS
WELL. HAVE EXTENDED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE PRODUCTS
SCA/BHS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. IN THE SOUTH HALF HAVE THEM
STARTING UP AT 06Z TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NORTH.
IN TERMS OF BEACH IMPACT TODAY/S EVENT IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE
MARINE AREA MAY BE THE HIGHER THREAT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS...AND
THEREFORE A LARGER BEACH POPULATION. TOMORROW/S WAVES WILL BE
BIGGER BUT THE IMPACT MAY BE MITIGATED BY COOLER BEACH
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LESS FOLKS ON THE BEACH AND IN THE
WATER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WE ARE EXPECTING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL
WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WITH A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT...FLOODING IS A GREATLY MITIGATED THREAT. RIVERS
HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY AND ASIDE FROM A TEMPORARY BUMP IN SOME
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ037-
043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND QUITE HUMID TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUR MAIN
FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON. BAND OF CLOUDS LEFT OVER
FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST LAST NIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER
OF THE CWFA. THIS IS MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PER THE RADAR
AND SFC OBS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED YET OVERHEAD.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL SEE A
DECENT CHC OF CONVECTION AFTER AROUND 21Z OR SO...AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA THEREAFTER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY
AXIS IS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WRN
U.P. TO NE IA AS OF 15Z THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO OUR
AREA AS THE LLJ/MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLIDES IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOP OVERHEAD BEFORE THAT TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
GREATLY CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE WRN AREAS OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML AND MU CAPE NOSE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z AND
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z VIA AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS DEFINITELY WEST OF THE AREA...AND THE BETTER
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WE DO SEE A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SD THAT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
WE BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING OF SPC PER THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
TRENDED MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EXPECTED TIME OF CONVECTION
PEAKING AT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS...HIGHEST WEST WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH...SO A WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH 40 KNOTS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A 30+ KNOT LLJ PRESENT DURING
THE TIME OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY
THICK CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER. WE ALSO AGREE WITH SPC ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS AND
0-1KM HELICITY VALUES 150+ M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG SSW FLOW
WAA HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN AND EXTREME NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING TO
TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THAT
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
FAR NW FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FCST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EARLY TO MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK OR NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SB/ML CAPE VALUES TO BRIEFLY REACH UP TO AS
HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN FCST
AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL
TIMING THE PAST 24 HRS WHICH IS ALSO POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
CONVECTION IS FROM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR SIM Z GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAINLY ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KTS OFF LATEST SREF GUIDANCE... ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEFLY
HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PASSES BY WELL
NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IS RATHER
LOW/MARGINAL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FROM ERN IOWA
TO INDIANA. HOWEVER WE MAY STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. BEST POPS WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY NOON. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE AT MKG.
THE FOCUS THIS EVENING FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE LINE OF SCTD
TSTMS WHICH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SRN LWR MI FROM 23Z-06Z. THE
STORMS WILL IMPACT MKG FIRST AND JXN LAST... BUT ANY ONE LOCATION
SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM OTHERWISE LIGHT
MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE HIGH DEW POINTS
NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT.
STORMS WILL EXIT BY 06Z... BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FROM GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
3 TO 5 FEET WITH HIGHEST WAVES WITHIN THAT RANGE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF KMKG UP TOWARD THE POINTS. STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST WAVES WILL
OCCUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE HIGHEST WAVES WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WE ARE EXPECTING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL
WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WITH A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT...FLOODING IS A GREATLY MITIGATED THREAT. RIVERS
HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY AND ASIDE FROM A TEMPORARY BUMP IN SOME
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND QUITE HUMID TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG SSW FLOW
WAA HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN AND EXTREME NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING TO
TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THAT
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
FAR NW FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FCST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EARLY TO MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK OR NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SB/ML CAPE VALUES TO BRIEFLY REACH UP TO AS
HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN FCST
AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL
TIMING THE PAST 24 HRS WHICH IS ALSO POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
CONVECTION IS FROM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR SIM Z GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAINLY ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KTS OFF LATEST SREF GUIDANCE... ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEFLY
HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AERA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PASSES BY WELL
NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IS RATHER
LOW/MARGINAL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FROM ERN IOWA
TO INDIANA. HOWEVER WE MAY STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. BEST POPS WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY NOON. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE AT MKG.
THE FOCUS THIS EVENING FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE LINE OF SCTD
TSTMS WHICH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SRN LWR MI FROM 23Z-06Z. THE
STORMS WILL IMPACT MKG FIRST AND JXN LAST... BUT ANY ONE LOCATION
SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM OTHERWISE LIGHT
MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE HIGH DEW POINTS
NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT.
STORMS WILL EXIT BY 06Z... BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AT MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FROM GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH
3 TO 5 FEET WITH HIGHEST WAVES WITHIN THAT RANGE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF KMKG UP TOWARD THE POINTS. STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST WAVES WILL
OCCUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE HIGHEST WAVES WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WE ARE EXPECTING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL
WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WITH A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT...FLOODING IS A GREATLY MITIGATED THREAT. RIVERS
HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY AND ASIDE FROM A TEMPORARY BUMP IN SOME
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...COLD CORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
ARKLAMISS FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
LOOKS TO YIELD CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WERE AN AXIS OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO EXIST. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES CLIMBING BACK
UP TO THE 1.75-2.00 INCH RANGE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS AND ADVERTISED 30
KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR COULD AID IN SOME HEALTHY CORES THIS AFTERNOON
THAT`LL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE LASTEST BATCH
OF HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS TREND AS THEIR
CONVECTIVE OUTPUT IS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...ASIDE FROM THE
TYPICAL HOURLY TRENDS...IS TO INCREASE POPS IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOOON...
BUT NO MORE THAN VICINITY EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN GTR AND MEI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z. /26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
SHORT TERM...THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE ARKLAMISS
WILL BE A CLOSED COLD CORE LOW MIGRATING WESTWARD FROM AL INTO MS.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN MS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATES CAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING TWO INCHES - AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
STRETCHING NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT VARIES IN
COVERAGE BUT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO
SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM CLUSTERS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE MOVEMENT OF STORMS
IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HAVE
RAISED POPS SOME FOR TODAY.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION OVERNIGHT AND BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD SET UP FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE
SHIFTED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION - A LITTLE MORE THAN MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR WEDNESDAY AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY
ONCE AGAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE GREATER INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO MAINTAIN
SOME CONTINUITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS THAT COULD HELP TO SEND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY TO TUESDAY. SO FAR...NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR
THE REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THE MOS CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH
THE TEMPERATURES. PERHAPS LEANING MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S/MID 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
HEAT STRESS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 71 91 71 / 46 32 34 22
MERIDIAN 88 69 91 69 / 60 39 28 23
VICKSBURG 90 70 92 71 / 20 20 34 22
HATTIESBURG 90 70 92 71 / 60 25 26 21
NATCHEZ 89 70 90 71 / 21 15 38 20
GREENVILLE 92 72 93 73 / 16 12 24 27
GREENWOOD 91 71 91 72 / 25 21 29 27
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
19/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
529 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE ARKLAMISS
WILL BE A CLOSED COLD CORE LOW MIGRATING WESTWARD FROM AL INTO MS.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN MS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATES CAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING TWO INCHES - AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
STRETCHING NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT VARIES IN
COVERAGE BUT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO
SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM CLUSTERS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE MOVEMENT OF STORMS
IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HAVE
RAISED POPS SOME FOR TODAY.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION OVERNIGHT AND BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD SET UP FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE
SHIFTED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION - A LITTLE MORE THAN MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR WEDNESDAY AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY
ONCE AGAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE GREATER INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO MAINTAIN
SOME CONTINUITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS THAT COULD HELP TO SEND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY TO TUESDAY. SO FAR...NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR
THE REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THE MOS CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH
THE TEMPERATURES. PERHAPS LEANING MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S/MID 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
HEAT STRESS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL SUPPORT BETTER
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GWO/JAN/MCB CORRIDOR. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 71 91 71 / 34 32 34 22
MERIDIAN 89 69 91 69 / 52 39 28 23
VICKSBURG 90 70 92 71 / 20 20 34 22
HATTIESBURG 90 70 92 71 / 41 25 26 21
NATCHEZ 89 70 90 71 / 21 15 38 20
GREENVILLE 92 72 93 73 / 15 12 24 27
GREENWOOD 91 71 91 72 / 25 21 29 27
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/07/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IN SHORT...THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ONE BEING ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY-ADVISORY
LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...AND THE OTHER BEING WHETHER OR NOT A FEW ISOLATED
STORM/POSSIBLY A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CAN FLARE UP AND BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE GENERALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THIS MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG CONVECTION...AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. STARTING WITH THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A WEAK ELEVATED STORM SLIPPING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
FORMAL MENTION INTO A PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE...AS SOME MODELS SHOW POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS ARE BONE DRY.
STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4 AM...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE
LOCAL AREA A SMATTERING OF WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ROAMING PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB AND ALSO A SMALL
PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL IA. THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT THE EXPANSIVE HIGH/ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM ITS CENTRAL CORE OVER THE
NM/CO BORDER AREA. IN THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE THE NORTH...A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MN. ESSENTIALLY...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED A MODEST
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS LEADING
EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
EVIDENCED BY A SHIFT TO SOME NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS OBSERVED SOME VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY BREEZES IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER LOW- 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA CONTINUES HOLDING ONTO UPPER
60S-LOW 70S DEWPOINTS...MAKING FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM
MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A RANGE FROM UPPER
60S/NEAR-70 WEST TO UPPER 70S-NEAR 80 EAST GIVEN THIS DEWPOINT
GRADIENT.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE EDGING SLIGHTLY NORTH
MORE OVER CO...AND THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA BEING FLATTENED SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES AREA TROUGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT SHOULD EASE WITH TIME...MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING NORTHEAST BREEZES UP TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE STALLING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
STATE LINE WILL OBSERVE A LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE
AS THE FRONT IS REINFORCED NEAR THE STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. ALTHOUGH VERY WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 13-15C AT 700MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FIRMLY CAP LOW-LEVEL BASED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE HINTS THAT A FEW ELEVATED
SPRINKLES OR EVEN WEAK STORMS COULD PERCOLATE ABOVE THE CAP ALONG
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT IN CASE SOME LOW POPS MIGHT NEED ADDED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
NOTEWORTHY AND LOWER-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEARER THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ALTHOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY NO GUARANTEE GIVEN
THE STRONG CAP...THE HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER
CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 25KT AT MOST OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOME MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH OTHERS IN THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS FOR
EXAMPLE THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF STRONGLY SUGGESTS IT WHILE THE LATEST
08Z RAP KEEPS STORMS AT BY LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/9PM. AT
ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING TO COVER AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE VERY CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
UPGRADED MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS/DOWNBURST ACTIVITY...AND LESS-SO LARGE HAIL GIVEN SUCH WARM
THERMAL PROFILES. SPEAKING OF THERMAL...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...AS MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS
ON HOW FAST THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WHETHER DEWPOINTS AGAIN SPIKE BACK UP BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AFTER FALLING OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. TOOK A BEST STAB AT
HIGHS USING A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM LOW
90S FAR NORTH...MID 90S CENTRAL AND GENERALLY 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH TO SEE PARTS OF THE NORTH STAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
THE NET RESULT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IS THAT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
A YORK-MINDEN LINE (INCLUDING KS) APPEAR MOST FAVORED TO
REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 105...AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH OF THE HIGHER-
THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE OF 110+ HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT
MATERIALIZED YESTERDAY IN EASTERN ZONES. OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA
TO THE NORTH AND WEST...IT WILL OBVIOUSLY STILL BE HOT...BUT
LOOKING FOR SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE INTO THE
95-102 RANGE.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...OBVIOUSLY HEAT INDEX/ADVISORY ISSUES
WILL QUICKLY ABATE...LEAVING THE ULTIMATE QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...FLOW WILL TURN EVEN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PARKS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER CENTRAL CO...WHICH ACTUALLY
ALLOWS MID LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY ALONG A TRACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO IA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES AROUND 10 MPH WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. ONE SCENARIO IS THAT ONCE ANY
EVENING ACTIVITY DIES OUT OR MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT NOTHING ELSE OCCURS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT (PER THE ECMWF AND ALSO THE NSSL 4KM-WRF).
MEANWHILE...OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS AND ALSO THE 4KM
WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOW POTENTIALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF A STORM COMPLEX RIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS/NORTHWEST NEB
AREA. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY HERE...OPTED NOT TO GET
CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AND JUST BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA WITH A GENERIC SLIGHT 20 PERCENT POP FOR THE
LATER NIGHT HOURS. BESIDES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SUPPOSE AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN WESTERN
ZONES...BUT CURRENT MODELS/GUIDANCE DO NOT SUPPORT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BAD ENOUGH/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FORMAL FORECAST
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR TSTMS...NOTHING IS LOOKING WIDESPREAD
OR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
FOLLOWING THE REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...READINGS
WILL TREND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE GREAT LAKES THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE HOT AIR RETREATS AND COOLER AIR BACKS
IN FROM THE EAST AND H85 TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES AND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES TO AROUND 90F IN THE SW. A 1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW AND BRING THE COOLEST CONDITIONS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR REMNANT
CONVECTION TO LINGER FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST AGAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATING
EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFIES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM THRU FRIDAY AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN AVERAGE IN THE 90S. A PROGRESSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN CONUS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CHCS FOR STORMS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE WITH
THE BOUNDARY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN IN THE MORE
MERIDIONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
READINGS OR BELOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS IN THE
OUTER PERIODS AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND BOUNDARIES MOVE THRU.
THIS BEING SAID NOTHING SAID THERE IS NO REAL CONCLUSIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION EITHER AND HAVE ONLY CARRIED LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH NOT ZERO...THE CHANCES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS SEEMS TO BE NO
HIGHER THAN 10-20 PERCENT...AND THUS CANNOT EVEN JUSTIFY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION AT THIS TIME. IF ANY STORMS
WERE HAPPEN TO BECOME AN ISSUE...IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT
DURING THE LATTER 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SURFACE BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT/UNDER 12KT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF ENHANCED GUSTINESS UP TO
AROUND 20KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION MAY HOLD ON FOR A FEW HOURS
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...A PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD SOON RESULT
IN PREVAILING NORTHEAST BREEZES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ064-074>077-083>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
502 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IN SHORT...THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ONE BEING ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY-ADVISORY
LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...AND THE OTHER BEING WHETHER OR NOT A FEW ISOLATED
STORM/POSSIBLY A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CAN FLARE UP AND BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE GENERALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THIS MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG CONVECTION...AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. STARTING WITH THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A WEAK ELEVATED STORM SLIPPING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
FORMAL MENTION INTO A PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE...AS SOME MODELS SHOW POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS ARE BONE DRY.
STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4 AM...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE
LOCAL AREA A SMATTERING OF WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ROAMING PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB AND ALSO A SMALL
PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL IA. THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT THE EXPANSIVE HIGH/ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM ITS CENTRAL CORE OVER THE
NM/CO BORDER AREA. IN THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE THE NORTH...A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MN. ESSENTIALLY...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED A MODEST
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS LEADING
EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
EVIDENCED BY A SHIFT TO SOME NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS OBSERVED SOME VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY BREEZES IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER LOW- 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA CONTINUES HOLDING ONTO UPPER
60S-LOW 70S DEWPOINTS...MAKING FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM
MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A RANGE FROM UPPER
60S/NEAR-70 WEST TO UPPER 70S-NEAR 80 EAST GIVEN THIS DEWPOINT
GRADIENT.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE EDGING SLIGHTLY NORTH
MORE OVER CO...AND THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA BEING FLATTENED SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES AREA TROUGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT SHOULD EASE WITH TIME...MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING NORTHEAST BREEZES UP TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE STALLING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
STATE LINE WILL OBSERVE A LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE
AS THE FRONT IS REINFORCED NEAR THE STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. ALTHOUGH VERY WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 13-15C AT 700MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FIRMLY CAP LOW-LEVEL BASED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE HINTS THAT A FEW ELEVATED
SPRINKLES OR EVEN WEAK STORMS COULD PERCOLATE ABOVE THE CAP ALONG
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT IN CASE SOME LOW POPS MIGHT NEED ADDED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
NOTEWORTHY AND LOWER-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEARER THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ALTHOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY NO GUARANTEE GIVEN
THE STRONG CAP...THE HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER
CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 25KT AT MOST OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOME MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH OTHERS IN THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS FOR
EXAMPLE THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF STRONGLY SUGGESTS IT WHILE THE LATEST
08Z RAP KEEPS STORMS AT BY LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/9PM. AT
ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING TO COVER AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE VERY CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
UPGRADED MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS/DOWNBURST ACTIVITY...AND LESS-SO LARGE HAIL GIVEN SUCH WARM
THERMAL PROFILES. SPEAKING OF THERMAL...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...AS MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS
ON HOW FAST THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WHETHER DEWPOINTS AGAIN SPIKE BACK UP BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AFTER FALLING OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. TOOK A BEST STAB AT
HIGHS USING A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM LOW
90S FAR NORTH...MID 90S CENTRAL AND GENERALLY 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH TO SEE PARTS OF THE NORTH STAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
THE NET RESULT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IS THAT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
A YORK-MINDEN LINE (INCLUDING KS) APPEAR MOST FAVORED TO
REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 105...AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH OF THE HIGHER-
THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE OF 110+ HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT
MATERIALIZED YESTERDAY IN EASTERN ZONES. OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA
TO THE NORTH AND WEST...IT WILL OBVIOUSLY STILL BE HOT...BUT
LOOKING FOR SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE INTO THE
95-102 RANGE.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...OBVIOUSLY HEAT INDEX/ADVISORY ISSUES
WILL QUICKLY ABATE...LEAVING THE ULTIMATE QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...FLOW WILL TURN EVEN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PARKS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER CENTRAL CO...WHICH ACTUALLY
ALLOWS MID LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY ALONG A TRACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO IA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES AROUND 10 MPH WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. ONE SCENARIO IS THAT ONCE ANY
EVENING ACTIVITY DIES OUT OR MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT NOTHING ELSE OCCURS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT (PER THE ECMWF AND ALSO THE NSSL 4KM-WRF).
MEANWHILE...OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS AND ALSO THE 4KM
WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOW POTENTIALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF A STORM COMPLEX RIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS/NORTHWEST NEB
AREA. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY HERE...OPTED NOT TO GET
CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AND JUST BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA WITH A GENERIC SLIGHT 20 PERCENT POP FOR THE
LATER NIGHT HOURS. BESIDES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SUPPOSE AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN WESTERN
ZONES...BUT CURRENT MODELS/GUIDANCE DO NOT SUPPORT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BAD ENOUGH/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FORMAL FORECAST
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR TSTMS...NOTHING IS LOOKING WIDESPREAD
OR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
FOLLOWING THE REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...READINGS
WILL TREND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE GREAT LAKES THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE HOT AIR RETREATS AND COOLER AIR BACKS
IN FROM THE EAST AND H85 TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES AND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES TO AROUND 90F IN THE SW. A 1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW AND BRING THE COOLEST CONDITIONS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR REMNANT
CONVECTION TO LINGER FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST AGAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATING
EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFIES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM THRU FRIDAY AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN AVERAGE IN THE 90S. A PROGRESSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN CONUS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CHCS FOR STORMS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE WITH
THE BOUNDARY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN IN THE MORE
MERIDIONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
READINGS OR BELOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS IN THE
OUTER PERIODS AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND BOUNDARIES MOVE THRU.
THIS BEING SAID NOTHING SAID THERE IS NO REAL CONCLUSIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION EITHER AND HAVE ONLY CARRIED LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
WITH THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA LIKELY
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT (MAINLY FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS)...CANNOT EVEN JUSTIFY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR RIGHT AWAY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE WITHIN THE LOWEST 2000
FT APPEARS TO ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 25-30KT AT BEST...AND SLOWLY
DECREASING WITH TIME. AS A RESULT...HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY FORMAL
LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS. SUSTAINED SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE AT/UNDER 12KT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MAIN FEATURE BEING A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWITCH DIRECTION FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY FROM MID-LATE MORNING
ONWARD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ064-074>077-083>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S PER LATEST OBS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...AND A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 90S
UP TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. POPS MAY BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER
SOUTH AND EAST ZONES BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS BUT WILL LEAVE AS
IS FOR NOW.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IMPACTS WILL BE AT
KCSV. INCLUDED VCTS AGAIN AS LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCLEAR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
MID STATE BUT SHOULD STAY AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONLY
OBSTRUCTIONS WOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TOWARD THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS HELPED TO
PROLONG THE NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...BROKEN CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH PCLDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER TROUGHING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANSION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.. THE PATTERN OVER THE MID STATE WILL THEN MORPH INTO MORE OF A
ROBUST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OF TN
BY THURSDAY.
SO FOR THE FCST...LOW CONVECTION CHANCES FOR TODAY AS THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. POPS
WILL INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE NEAR TERM
TEMPS...QUITE WARM TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE...COMPLIMENTS OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
WE`LL COOL THINGS OFF BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
IN THE EXT FCST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DESCENT SHOT OF RAIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE MID STATE ON MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH INDICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S..
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WARM AGAIN THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE LOOKING VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING SOME ECHOES DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LINE ON THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. LOOKING AT THE MESO SCALE MODELS THIS
MORNING...THE HRRR AND RAP ARE PRETTY MUCH USELESS AS THEY TURN
THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT WAY TOO QUICKLY. THE
22.00Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND CONTINUE MOVING IT EAST TAKING IT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE 22.00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDING FOR LADYSMITH...THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE CAP HOLDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING
ECHOES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THESE ARE JUST STARTING TO GET
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE GROUND. THE HI-RES NMM SHOWS THE ECHOES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO BEND MORE OFF TO THE EAST BUT DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THEM
EXPANDING AND KEEPS THEM SCATTERED. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH DOWN TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT FOR THIS
MORNING. TO HANDLE THE LIGHT ECHOES...WILL SHOW ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
AS FAR SOUTH AS I90 UNLESS OBSERVATIONS START INDICATING THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...THE FORCING FROM THIS WAVE
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL IT HAS MOVED PAST THE AREA. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
BLUE RIVER INDICATES THE CAP WILL HOLD IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE 22.00Z GFS HOLDS IT INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
CAP REMAINING IN PLACE...ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THIS EVENING
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST IN CASE THE NAM IS CORRECT
AND THE CAP DISSIPATES A LITTLE SOONER...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO A
20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ARE A PRETTY GOOD
BET. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN GET INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL BE ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY TO HANDLE THIS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GETS
FLATTENED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COMES FROM
HOW FAST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CUT THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 22.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND 22.00Z GEM ON BRINGING THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...ALL OF THEM SHOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN WITH THE WAVE AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE GFS AND
GEM BEING A LITTLE SLOWER...WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW STILL LOOK TO COME THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
INDICATING A DROP IN VSBYS IN A CLEAR SLOT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME STRATUS ALSO STARTING TO DEVELOP-EXTEND INTO THIS
REGION. BOTH COULD IMPACT KRST/KLSE...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD AT
KRST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY CIG THAT DID MOVE IN
WOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BETWEEN 14-16Z. WILL ADD CIG MENTION INTO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KRST FOR NOW...AND LEAVE OUT AT KLSE WERE CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT LESS. SOME FUZZ WILL LINGER AT KRST UNTIL MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO TONIGHT.
FOR WED MORNING...SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE NAM KLSE SOUNDING OF
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND THIS
EVENING...BUT DIRECTION COULD BE NORTHWEST. IF SO...LOCALE RESEARCH
SUGGESTS DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10+ KTS. ALSO NOT FAVORABLE. SO...WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 22 2014
.Synopsis...
An upper wave moves over NorCal today with showers and potential
thunderstorms. Then expect a warming trend Wednesday into the
weekend.
&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
An upper level disturbance continues to lift northeastward through
Northern California this afternoon. This system is interacting
with the remaning monsoonal moisture aloft and has spread
sprinkles to light rain across portions of the Northern San
Joaquin and Sacramento valley so far today. A few stray lightning
strikes were detected near Auburn and Chico as well. Short term
guidance initially underestimated the instability/precipitation
generated from this event however the HRRR caught up to
observations by 18Z. Radar imagery has consistently shown
southwest to northeast oriented band of precipitation of light
precipitation stretching across Northern California this morning.
This line is forming along an air mass boundary formed by the
aforementioned upper level disturbance and should continue to push
north-northeastward this afternoon into evening. A secondary line
developed just south of the main band of precipitation.
Precipitation so far has been fairly light in this band, with most
stations recording a trace to around a tenth of an inch.
The upper disturbance moves out of the area overnight. Winds
become breezy through the Delta and over the mounatins tonight
into Wednesday as the pattern shifts. The atmosphere dries out by
midweek and leaves behind a more stable atmosphere under southwest
flow aloft. Temperatures warm to above average for Thursday and
Friday after skies clear and high pressure backbuilds from the
desert southwest. Triple digit temperatures are possible in the
latter half of the week.
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
High pressure ridge building in from the Desert Southwest will
result in above normal temperatures through the weekend and into
early next week. Portions of the Central Valley will likely be
reaching 100+ temperatures during this timeframe. There may be
enough onshore flow through the Delta to keep Delta Breeze-
influenced areas just below the triple-digit threshold.
Medium-range models continue to suggest monsoonal moisture
advecting northward. At this stage, a slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible south of Tahoe on Sunday, with
perhaps a more widespread chance over the Sierra on Monday.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, with scattered
mid to high clouds over the area. Isolated SHRA with a slight
chance of TS will be possible generally north of KCIC through
about 04z.
Across the Valley, south to west winds 5 to 15 kt will continue
through Wednesday. Near the Delta, southwest winds 15 to 30 kt
will be possible through Wed.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...AND PARK COUNTY SO FAR...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...THE CAP IS WEAKENING AS WE HAVE HAD FULL SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW IF WE REACH 95 NEAR
DENVER WE COULD BREAK THE CAP. AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD STILL BE
MORE LIKELY FOR THIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE OR CHEYENNE RIDGE. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 HINT
AT THIS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS IN/NEAR THOSE AREAS. ONLY
CHANGE TO WEATHER WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASE. HOWEVER...THIS OCCURS UNDER A LARGE
DOMINATING RIDGE SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP AT THIS POINT.
AREAS OF STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL WITH
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN UPSLOPE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM SOUTHEAST TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. LOOKS LIKE DENVER CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL GET ERODED AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND STRONGER MIXING
OCCURS. AS A RESULT...BEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER AREA BY AFTERNOON. CAPES THERE MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WITH A STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...LOOKS
LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN
MOUNTAINS WHERE A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN THREAT TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. STORMS SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES. ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED A BIT AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS
SOME INCREASE IN MONSOON TYPE MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAIN.
FOR FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW
INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH
SOME SLIGHT LOW LEVEL COOLING. THIS MAY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING
A BIT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN THE MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE BEING DISPLACED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. GFS STILL DRIER
THAT THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT INTO THE AREA. LIFT WITH THIS WAVE MAY HELP INCREASE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
NORTHWEST SUNDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
COOLER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A STORM PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 25-30
KTS. OTHERWISE EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY
05Z-08Z...AND THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 10Z-14Z AS WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE DEVELOPS. SOME STRATUS BELOW 1000 FT AGL POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME THREAT WOULD BE WELL EAST AND NORTH OF KDEN AND KBJC.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO
12G20KTS BY 18Z-21Z. ONLY A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS
AFTER 21Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY MONDAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS...
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. WILL CAP POPS AT 20 PERCENT...AS NOT
EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...STORMS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND
INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW CT. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL END
BETWEEN 9-10 PM.
WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT. SFC DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE MID 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S. CAN EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING WITH
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRES DEPARTING AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND NE
NJ...AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COASTS. THE HEAT INDEX ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...EXPECT FOR NYC/NE
NJ...WHERE THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SINCE
THE HEAT INDEX IN NYC WILL NOT REACH 95 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...AND SINCE THE HEAT INDEX WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ML MUCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WILL DROP TO AROUND 400
J/KG AT NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WILL RISE TO 25-35 KT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO PWATS AROUND 2".
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
WILL NOT ISSUE A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS THE THREAT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST THU MORNING...BUT WITH THE
H8 FRONT STILL YET TO MOVE ACROSS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL WELL TO
THE WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO SLOW
ITS PROGRESS EVEN FURTHER...WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TO START ACROSS SE
CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
RAMPING DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDS LOOK
MAINLY DRY FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN ON SAT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES...WITH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY INCREASING BACK TO OVER 1 INCH BY LATE DAY...AND AS MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES APPROACH IN ZONAL FLOW...SHOULD START TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGINNING LATE DAY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN STATES AND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MERGES WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER QUEBEC...CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST OFF TO THE SE...THEN LATE DAY MON INTO MON
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
COULD SEE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...THEN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE REST OF TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SEA BREEZE HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. KEWR IS THE EXCEPTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SPEEDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
TEMPOS FOR REDUCED VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SOUTH SEA BREEZE LIGHTENS AFTER SUNSET.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AS WINDS LIGHTEN
AFTER SUNSET.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AIRPORT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE MOVING THROUGH RESULTING
IN A WIND SHIFT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WINDS LIGHTEN AS THEY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. PLEASE
SEE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR DETAILS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. PLEASE
SEE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR DETAILS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM LATE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SLOW MOVING COLD FROPA. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LOCAL ENHANCED SEA BREEZE IS RESULTING IN 15-20 KT WINDS
ACROSS NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. NOT EXPECTING 25 KT
GUSTS...SO WILL NOT HOIST A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ON THE WATERS TONIGHT...REDUCING VSBY TO AS LOW AS 1
NM.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS ON THE
REST OF THE WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND
AROUND 1 FT ELSEWHERE.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THU AND LATE DAY SAT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
QUIET CONDS THU THROUGH SAT...THEN FCST UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HAVE FCST CONTINUED QUIET CONDS...BUT IF AN
APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND/OR FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
STRONGER THAN FCST...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS COULD DEVELOP IF
CORRESPONDING S-SW FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FCST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREA...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE LATTER IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST OFF TO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MON...HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY INCREASES
TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL DEPEND FIRST ON THE LOW TRACK...THEN
ON POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS OTHER MESOSCALE/THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IT IS TOO EARLY TO OUTLOOK THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY MONDAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS...
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. WILL CAP POPS AT 20 PERCENT...AS NOT
EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...STORMS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND
INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW CT. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL END
BETWEEN 9-10 PM.
WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT. SFC DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE MID 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S. CAN EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CITY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING WITH
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRES DEPARTING AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND NE
NJ...AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
BE SIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COASTS. THE HEAT INDEX ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...EXPECT FOR NYC/NE
NJ...WHERE THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SINCE
THE HEAT INDEX IN NYC WILL NOT REACH 95 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...AND SINCE THE HEAT INDEX WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ML MUCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WILL DROP TO AROUND 400
J/KG AT NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WILL RISE TO 25-35 KT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO PWATS AROUND 2".
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
WILL NOT ISSUE A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS THE THREAT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST THU MORNING...BUT WITH THE
H8 FRONT STILL YET TO MOVE ACROSS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL WELL TO
THE WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO SLOW
ITS PROGRESS EVEN FURTHER...WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TO START ACROSS SE
CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
RAMPING DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDS LOOK
MAINLY DRY FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN ON SAT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES...WITH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY INCREASING BACK TO OVER 1 INCH BY LATE DAY...AND AS MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES APPROACH IN ZONAL FLOW...SHOULD START TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGINNING LATE DAY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN STATES AND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MERGES WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER QUEBEC...CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST OFF TO THE SE...THEN LATE DAY MON INTO MON
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
COULD SEE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...THEN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ARRIVING THROUGH THE REST OF TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SEA BREEZE HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AT KJFK/LGA. THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD REACH KEWR BY 21Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTION AROUND
170-180 TRUE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH MOST
SPOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SPEEDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
TEMPOS FOR REDUCE VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE REACHING
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT...WIND DIR WILL STAY CLOSER
TO 220 TRUE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE REACHING
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT...WIND DIR WILL STAY
CLOSER TO 220 TRUE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM LATE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SLOW MOVING COLD FROPA. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LOCAL ENHANCED SEA BREEZE IS RESULTING IN 15-20 KT WINDS
ACROSS NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. NOT EXPECTING 25 KT
GUSTS...SO WILL NOT HOIST A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ON THE WATERS TONIGHT...REDUCING VSBY TO AS LOW AS 1
NM.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS ON THE
REST OF THE WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND
AROUND 1 FT ELSEWHERE.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THU AND LATE DAY SAT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
QUIET CONDS THU THROUGH SAT...THEN FCST UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HAVE FCST CONTINUED QUIET CONDS...BUT IF AN
APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND/OR FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
STRONGER THAN FCST...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS COULD DEVELOP IF
CORRESPONDING S-SW FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FCST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREA...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE LATTER IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST OFF TO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MON...HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY INCREASES
TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL DEPEND FIRST ON THE LOW TRACK...THEN
ON POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS OTHER MESOSCALE/THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IT IS TOO EARLY TO OUTLOOK THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND INTO SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CUT AFTERNOON POPS DOWN FROM LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CAP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. LATEST HRRR INDICATING ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS...AND 12Z NAM DOES NOT HAVE MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE AT
BEST.
SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. TEMPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LONG
PERIOD SE SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS WITH DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING AROUND 90 ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. NO
EXTENDED HEAT WAVE IS FORECAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY
WED AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF NYC. INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY BY 6 PM.
PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARD IS HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING MAINLY OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
BECAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST...A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME FOR THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND SHOWALTER INDICES OF 0 TO -2 PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
REGION AT THE MINIMUM INT HE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80+ KT UPPER
LEVEL JET...AND POSSIBLY IN A COUPLED UPPER JET REGION - DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MODELS DUE VARY ON
THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE LATTER. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KT DURING THE EVENING SO THERE COULD BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS DURING THE EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/S CT/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES. AS SUCH
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PRIOR TO 6Z.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON AMOUNT/EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF 850 HPA COLD FRONT. NAM/SREF ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR COLD FRONTS TO
HANG UP CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS...SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE 850 COLD
FRONT MAKES SOME SENSE...SO DID WEIGH POPS AND CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THIS LINE OF THINKING. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY. HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS FAR SE ZONES...THIS MIGHT BE A TAD TOO LONG ULTIMATELY...BUT
WITH OVERALL TREND WITH FRONTAL TIMING A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION LASTING A TAD LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES THEN ADDED A DEGREE TO WEIGH TOWARDS WARMER
SOLUTIONS - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE...THEN ADDED 2 DEGREES TO WEIGH TOWARDS WARMER
SOLUTIONS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
THE REGIONS WEATHER FRIDAY-MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
EXACT POSITION/STRENGTH OF A RATHER LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...AND WHEN SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE REGION SHOULD BE
BETWEEN SPOKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.
SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE COULD
PASS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL NOT RAIN
THE ENTIRE TIME...IN FACT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FOR MORE TIME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAN IT WILL RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
GIVEN DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A CUTOFF LOW
THIS FAR OUT...YET ALONE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HANDLING OF
A CUTOFF LOW THIS FAR OUT...DO NOT WANT TO EVEN ATTEMPT ANY SORT OF
TIMING - SO HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS STARTING OUT
BELOW NORMAL AND TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. VFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM TAF. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SEA BREEZE MAKES IT
TO KEWR/KTEB...RESULTING IN WIND DIR AROUND 170-180 TRUE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
A SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW THOUGH...SO ONLY VCSH AT KSWF.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE REACHING
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT...WIND DIR WILL STAY CLOSER
TO 220 TRUE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE REACHING
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT...WIND DIR WILL STAY
CLOSER TO 220 TRUE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM LATE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SLOW MOVING COLD FROPA. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS GUSTS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN RELAXES OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND REMAINS LIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT WINDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BEST CHANCE FOR THIS IS TO THE N/W OF NYC.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREA...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1228 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND INTO SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CUT AFTERNOON POPS DOWN FROM LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CAP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. LATEST HRRR INDICATING ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS...AND 12Z NAM DOES NOT HAVE MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE AT
BEST.
SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. TEMPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LONG
PERIOD SE SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS WITH DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING AROUND 90 ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. NO
EXTENDED HEAT WAVE IS FORECAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY
WED AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF NYC. INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY BY 6 PM.
PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARD IS HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING MAINLY OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
BECAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST...A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME FOR THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND SHOWALTER INDICES OF 0 TO -2 PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
REGION AT THE MINIMUM INT HE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80+ KT UPPER
LEVEL JET...AND POSSIBLY IN A COUPLED UPPER JET REGION - DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MODELS DUE VARY ON
THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE LATTER. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KT DURING THE EVENING SO THERE COULD BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS DURING THE EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/S CT/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES. AS SUCH
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PRIOR TO 6Z.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON AMOUNT/EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF 850 HPA COLD FRONT. NAM/SREF ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR COLD FRONTS TO
HANG UP CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS...SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE 850 COLD
FRONT MAKES SOME SENSE...SO DID WEIGH POPS AND CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THIS LINE OF THINKING. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY. HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS FAR SE ZONES...THIS MIGHT BE A TAD TOO LONG ULTIMATELY...BUT
WITH OVERALL TREND WITH FRONTAL TIMING A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION LASTING A TAD LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES THEN ADDED A DEGREE TO WEIGH TOWARDS WARMER
SOLUTIONS - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE...THEN ADDED 2 DEGREES TO WEIGH TOWARDS WARMER
SOLUTIONS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
THE REGIONS WEATHER FRIDAY-MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
EXACT POSITION/STRENGTH OF A RATHER LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...AND WHEN SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE REGION SHOULD BE
BETWEEN SPOKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.
SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE COULD
PASS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL NOT RAIN
THE ENTIRE TIME...IN FACT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FOR MORE TIME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAN IT WILL RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
GIVEN DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A CUTOFF LOW
THIS FAR OUT...YET ALONE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HANDLING OF
A CUTOFF LOW THIS FAR OUT...DO NOT WANT TO EVEN ATTEMPT ANY SORT OF
TIMING - SO HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS STARTING OUT
BELOW NORMAL AND TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. VFR WITH LIGHT
W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING.
SEA BREEZE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/-
1-2 HOURS FROM TAF. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SEA BREEZE MAKES IT TO
KEWR/KTEB...RESULTING IN WIND DIR AROUND 170-180 TRUE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
A SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW THOUGH...SO ONLY VCSH AT KSWF.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
GUSTS INDICATED IN TAF MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL IN FREQUENCY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE REACHING
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT...WIND DIR WILL STAY CLOSER
TO 220 TRUE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE REACHING
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES NOT...WIND DIR WILL STAY CLOSER
TO 220 TRUE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1 HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY WED...ESP
INTERIOR AND EASTERN TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SLOW MOVING COLD FROPA. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS GUSTS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN RELAXES OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND REMAINS LIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT WINDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BEST CHANCE FOR THIS IS TO THE N/W OF NYC.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREA...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC/PICCA
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
149 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA
WORKING WITH DEEP LOW OFF BC CANADA COAST TO MAINTAIN MOIST FLOW
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF STATE INCLUDING CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ALREADY SEEING BROAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD CALIFORNIA FEATURE.
RADAR PICKING UP WEAK RETURNS OVER PAHSIMEROI AND LEMHI REGIONS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE THOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY THIN BAND OF ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT JUST ALONG WESTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA BOUNDARIES SO WILL KEEP LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MTNS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE MUCH
DRIER FLOW IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW EJECTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO
OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO
ENHANCE DRYING. FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERN LOW CENTER REACHES PACNW COAST AND DRY PUNCH EXTENDS
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO. HAVE KEPT WEAK POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES WITH DRY
UPSTREAM FLOW ON WV SAT IMAGERY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR EVEN LAKE WIND CONCERNS. UPPER LOW
EJECTS EAST ALONG CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...PUSHING DRY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. COOLER BUT WINDIER
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE /SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW/. GUIDANCE SHOWING WIDE SPREAD IN WIND VALUES SO WILL LEAVE
CURRENT GRIDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RIDGE REBOUNDS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MODELS STILL
HINTING AT SOME HINT OF A RETURN TO MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW BY MONDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND SPREAD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BELIEVE ISOLATED POPS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL CLEARER PICTURE DEVELOPS. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF KSUN SO KEPT IN A MENTION OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EP
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND IN
WASHINGTON STATE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES PAST
THE AREA...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SE ID LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DECREASE RH VALUES AND INCREASE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR ALL CRITICAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A RED FLAG DAY OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF LOW RH AND HIGH
WINDS.
EP
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING IDZ410-425.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING IDZ422-427.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STORM
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 600 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE AT H5. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BETWEEN TRIBUNE AND LEOTI EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HILL CITY.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL CU FIELD AT 19Z LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND WHILE AN ISOLATED
STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL FIRE
ALONG REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH H85-H7 WAA INCREASING
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR STORMS COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES BUT WITH WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN STORM MOTION WOULD BE SLOW. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND WHILE THE FORCING
WILL BE THERE...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND PRESSURE
ADVECTION VALUES ON 310 AND 315K SURFACES WOULD SUGGEST SATURATION
UNLIKELY. IF STORMS/CLOUDS CANNOT DEVELOP...BACKED EASTERLY FLOW
WITH A 100MB POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO 15Z. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY...GIVEN EXPECTED SFC PATTERN THAT APPEARS REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING. CAPE
WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000J/KG AND SHEAR WILL BE 20KTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN OVERALL LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS BUT ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGH BASED MOISTURE AROUND 600MB. CAPE RANGES FROM 200J/KG IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO 800J/KG IN THE EAST. DUE TO THESE MARGINAL
PARAMETERS WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH COVERAGE OVER THE
ENTIRE FA AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA. STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHIFT TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND/SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. NUMEROUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS
COOLING TO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 90S SATURDAY COOLING TO THE UPPER 80S FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES TOO LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SMALL THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STILL A FAIR BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH
RESPECT TO EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...SO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON
AVIATION CATEGORIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
107 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 600 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE AT H5. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BETWEEN TRIBUNE AND LEOTI EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HILL CITY.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL CU FIELD AT 19Z LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND WHILE AN ISOLATED
STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL FIRE
ALONG REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH H85-H7 WAA INCREASING
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR STORMS COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES BUT WITH WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN STORM MOTION WOULD BE SLOW. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND WHILE THE FORCING
WILL BE THERE...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND PRESSURE
ADVECTION VALUES ON 310 AND 315K SURFACES WOULD SUGGEST SATURATION
UNLIKELY. IF STORMS/CLOUDS CANNOT DEVELOP...BACKED EASTERLY FLOW
WITH A 100MB POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO 15Z. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY...GIVEN EXPECTED SFC PATTERN THAT APPEARS REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
FOR THE PERIODS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME
AS CWA WILL SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING FOR MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE FALLING
APART BY 00Z THURSDAY. WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY WILL SEE TRW CHANCES
FIRST BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST GIVING EASTERN ZONES BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. 925 MB TEMPS THRU PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE +30 TO
+36C WHICH GIVE 90S TO THE AREA...BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLING TREND TOWARDS NEXT WEEK. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL BE NEAR-ZONAL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY
SLOWLY RETROGRADES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION.
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE OF SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TEMPS
MUCH INITIALLY...BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING AMPLE UPWARD MOTION FOR BOTH ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS
QUICKLY STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN POP UP WILL NOT
LAST LONG.
SATURDAY WILL BE NOT AS HOT WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY...BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 1500-2000+ J/JG MUCAPE
/UNCAPPED/ WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. THE 00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ARRIVAL COMPARED TO PAST RUNS...BUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH TO GET STORMS GOING. THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...AND IN THIS VICINITY WOULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS LONG AS STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 25-30KT LOW LEVEL
JET AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO KEEP THINGS GOING. STORM MOTIONS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
SUNDAY EXPECT ANY ONGOING OVERNIGHT PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE AS
COOLER...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC IS A DRY
OUTLIER IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WELL WITH
ECMWF/GEM FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS
NOT EXTREME...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE OF AN EVENT AS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS KEEPING THINGS SOCKED
IN MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS. HIGHS RELATIVELY
COOLER...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE THAN EXPECTED...IN THE
LOW 90S.
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY. AS WITH SUNDAY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS VERY
DRY...BUT GIVEN CLIMO POPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S FELT POPS IN THE MID
20S WAS JUST FINE GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY FOR A DAY 7
FORECAST. TEMPS COOLER...AGAIN ESPECIALLY SO IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND
FOR MOST THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES TOO LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SMALL THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STILL A FAIR BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH
RESPECT TO EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...SO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON
AVIATION CATEGORIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND QUITE HUMID TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUR MAIN
FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON. BAND OF CLOUDS LEFT OVER
FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST LAST NIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER
OF THE CWFA. THIS IS MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PER THE RADAR
AND SFC OBS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED YET OVERHEAD.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL SEE A
DECENT CHC OF CONVECTION AFTER AROUND 21Z OR SO...AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA THEREAFTER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY
AXIS IS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WRN
U.P. TO NE IA AS OF 15Z THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO OUR
AREA AS THE LLJ/MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLIDES IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOP OVERHEAD BEFORE THAT TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
GREATLY CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE WRN AREAS OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML AND MU CAPE NOSE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z AND
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z VIA AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS DEFINITELY WEST OF THE AREA...AND THE BETTER
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WE DO SEE A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SD THAT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
WE BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING OF SPC PER THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
TRENDED MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EXPECTED TIME OF CONVECTION
PEAKING AT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS...HIGHEST WEST WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH...SO A WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH 40 KNOTS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A 30+ KNOT LLJ PRESENT DURING
THE TIME OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY
THICK CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER. WE ALSO AGREE WITH SPC ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS AND
0-1KM HELICITY VALUES 150+ M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG SSW FLOW
WAA HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN AND EXTREME NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING TO
TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THAT
ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
FAR NW FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FCST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EARLY TO MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK OR NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SB/ML CAPE VALUES TO BRIEFLY REACH UP TO AS
HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN FCST
AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL
TIMING THE PAST 24 HRS WHICH IS ALSO POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
CONVECTION IS FROM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR SIM Z GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAINLY ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KTS OFF LATEST SREF GUIDANCE... ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEFLY
HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PASSES BY WELL
NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IS RATHER
LOW/MARGINAL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FROM ERN IOWA
TO INDIANA. HOWEVER WE MAY STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. BEST POPS WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AREA WIDE AT 18Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS IS ON THE
EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SINK SOUTH THROUGH
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
AT KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES INLAND. AT
THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO PREVAILING STORMS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION SO USED VCTS WORDING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK TO SETTLE INTO
THE TAF SITES ON NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AT THIS
POINT USED SCATTERED WORDING AT 1500FT TO CONVEY THE CHANCE OF
THIS DECK DEVELOPING. A CHANCE AT SOME MVFR FOG FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN PLACE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR/SCATTER OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE NORTH. SOME MODELS INDICATE A MVFR DECK HOLDING ON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014
BEACH HAZARDS EVENT UNDERWAY AND GOING DOWN AS EXPECTED THUS FAR.
THE LUDINGTON BUOY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 4.6 FOOT WAVES AND THE
WEBCAM THERE IS SHOWING SOME PRETTY BIG WAVES AT TIMES SMACKING
THE SOUTH BREAKWALL. HOFFMASTER STATE PARK HAD 4 FOOTERS IN THEIR
MORNING BEACH OB. IN LOOKING AT THE GRAND HAVEN WEBCAM FEELING OK
WHERE WE HAVE THE BREAK IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA ZONE (GRAND HAVEN) WILL BE BORDERLINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WAVES HOVERING AROUND THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
HAVE OPTED TO JUMP INTO THE NORTH FLOW PORTION OF THE EVENT NOW AS
WELL. HAVE EXTENDED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE PRODUCTS
SCA/BHS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. IN THE SOUTH HALF HAVE THEM
STARTING UP AT 06Z TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NORTH.
IN TERMS OF BEACH IMPACT TODAY/S EVENT IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE
MARINE AREA MAY BE THE HIGHER THREAT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS...AND
THEREFORE A LARGER BEACH POPULATION. TOMORROW/S WAVES WILL BE
BIGGER BUT THE IMPACT MAY BE MITIGATED BY COOLER BEACH
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LESS FOLKS ON THE BEACH AND IN THE
WATER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WE ARE EXPECTING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL
WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WITH A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT...FLOODING IS A GREATLY MITIGATED THREAT. RIVERS
HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY AND ASIDE FROM A TEMPORARY BUMP IN SOME
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ037-
043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the convective
evolution and coverage tonight. Dew points in the 70s, strong
heating and steep mid level lapse rates are currently contributing
to SBCAPE of 3500-6000 j/kg across the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA
with the highest values across central and north central MO. There
also is a significant cap in place due to warm mid level temperatures.
The big question is when and how much of the cap will be reduced
as the front moves southward out of Iowa and southeast Nebraska
into northern MO this evening. Model solutions including the
convection allowing models are quite varied on QPF and implied
coverage. Recent runs of the HRRR are quite stingy on coverage
with isolated storms at best. I don`t have a great feel for what
is going to occur, but the deterministic models suggest that height
falls/cooling aloft should be sufficient to weaken the cap and
allow for scattered development along front, mainly late this
evening and especially overnight. I have attempted to follow this
trend with the greatest coverage along/east of the MS river. The
severe threat is conditional on development early enough this
evening to realize the big CAPE, and the main threat would appear
to be damaging winds given the warm air aloft.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
The cold front should lie roughly from south central IL to near
St. Louis into southwest MO at 12z and exit the CWA by early
afternoon. There will continue to be a threat of scattered showers
and storms ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should be
cooler tomorrow with the main thrust of cooling and drying in the
afternoon. Unseasonably deep upper troffing in the eastern U.S.
will keep a large surface high dominating the area Wednesday night
into Friday, with most of this period dominated by lower humidity
and below average temperatures.
Beginning late Thursday night and into Friday the threat of precipitation
will return in association with elevated showers/thundestorms due to
strong warm advection/moisture transport via a southwesterly LLJ ahead
of the slowly retreating warm front and in association with impulses
aloft dropping southeastward along the eastern periphery of the
upper high. A cold front will then drop through the area Saturday
afternoon-Sunday as a upper trof digs southeastward from the upper
MS valley and into the Great Lakes bringing another threat of
showers and thunderstorms. This upper wave will be part of large
scale amplification of the upper air pattern across NOAM and will
feature another deep trof over the eastern U.S. through the first
part of next week and send out July with another period of below
average temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
Upper level high retreating some to the west will allow fairly
strong short wave to drop into into the eastern US bringing
northwest flow back to the region. Associated surface cold front
will move through late tonight and Wednesday morning. Forecast
issue is when, where and if thunderstorms develop. Cooling aloft
has to occur before the instability disappears. No model is
convincing enough toexclusively follow. Have blended and followed
previous forecast putting storm at UIN about 00z and gradually
moving south, into STL at 06z. Models and soundings suggest some
mvfr cielings wednesday am.
Specifics for KSTL: Nothing out there has convinced me to change the
previous forecast. CWSU concurs to keep the prevailing
thunderstorms from 06 - 08z...with a couple of hours of mvfr
ceilings Wednesday am.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Mid to upper 90s prevailing across much of the region this afternoon
as the warmest airmass of the season continues to grip the area.
Latest 850-mb analysis from the SPC meso site showing the 28C temp
contour directly over the fcst region this afternoon. This combined
with steep low-level lapse rates and dewpoints largely in the lower
to middle 70s has resulted in a very hot and oppressive day across
the area. Current heat advisory for the entire fcst area needs no
adjustments and is set to expire at 7 PM this evening.
In addition to the heat...the other main concern remains focused on
possible severe convection later this evening as main cold front now
found over southwestern IA and eastern NE continues to slowly track
south with time. For what its worth...high-res convection allowing
models struggled mightily with this mornings convection across
our northeastern zones...and very little guidance from these models
appears to be in the offering for activity later this evening as
well. Not surprisingly...overall confidence for tonight/s fcst is
less than desired as some models show developing convection...while
others such as the HRRR continue to backtrack towards a drier and
drier fcst with each successive run. So here/s what we know so far...
Sfc boundary set to arrive towards the IA/MO state line around 00z
this evening. Out ahead of this feature...airmass remains capped with
a significant amount of inhibition thanks that 700-mb temps ranging
in the 12-14C range. Additionally...northerly 925-850-mb winds will
provide little if any low-level convergence into the arriving
frontal boundary as we continue into the evening hrs. Despite
this...quick look at latest water vapor imagery does show an inbound
shortwave trough now seen over south-central NE and north-central
KS. This feature combined with very modest frontal convergence may be
enough to get this going...however concerns for widespread severe
remain marginal as of this writing. Latest SPC day 1 outlook has
trimmed the SLGT risk mention further to the southeast...which is
more in line with where convection may develop as front continues to
drop south. That said...main severe threat with any activity that
forms will likely be strong wind gusts as nearly dry adiabatic lapse
rates will support favorable low-level and boundary layer mixing.
High wet-bulb zero heights (>16 kft) will likely negate the threat
for very large hail until later on when any lingering activity begins
to go elevated with due to loss of daytime heating. Overall concerns
for hail though remain the lowest of the two forms of severe outlined
above however. In general...severe threat this evening looks to be
isolated with the most likely areas to possibly see a rogue storm or
two residing in our northeastern zones where better potential exists
to break the cap thanks to slightly cooler temps aloft. If activity gets
going...severe threat should transition south of the I-70 corridor as
front continues to make progress through the area. As mentioned above
through...a widespread severe event does not look to be in the
offering this evening.
Region should largely reside in a post frontal airmass
tomorrow...with weak dry air advection allowing for cooler and less
humid conditions. In fact...fcst models suggest dewpoints anywhere
between 5-10 degrees cooler than today...which should be a welcomed
relief following today/s oppressive conditions. High temps should
round out in the middle to upper 80s.
Large scale pattern shift expected from Thursday into Friday as southern
Plains ridge retrograde west as northern stream energy traverses the
northern Rockies/Plains. As this occurs...upper flow will become
decidedly more northwesterly which will set the stage for unsettled
conditions heading into the upcoming weekend. Closer to the
surface...fcst models still paint a northward retreating warm front
by late week as return flow reestablishes itself across the Great
Plains in advance of leeside troughing along the Front Range. Several
upper shortwaves embedded in northwest flow will allow for continued
chances for showers and storms through at least Saturday...if not
Sunday. As is the case with convection this time of year...hard to
pin your hat on any one feature of interest as long range models to
include both the ECMWF and GFS normally suffer from convective
feedback issues to some degree. As a result...have maintained Chc
pops through the weekend before high pressure arrives by early next
week following the passage of a cold front on Sunday. Temps early
next week look to fall below normal with highs possibly only reaching
into the lower to middle 80s come Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
Main concern heading into the fcst period remains focused on
convection as weak cold front sinks south across the area. Latest
model trends show the best potential east of all terminal sites but
given the amount of uncertainty with the fcst...VCTS mention was
maintained for all locations after 00z this evening. After 6z...any
convection that does form should be south with weak northeast flow
expected through the remainder of the overnight. Some potential for
developing VSBY restrictions at STJ after 09z as front fails to scour
out abundant low-level moisture.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1024 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TO HOLD
POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...BASICALLY FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS AND EAST. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WANT
TO KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SOUTH INTO NORTH EAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT WANT TO CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME STORMS.
FORECAST THINKING IS THAT THESE MODELS ARE DISPLACING THE
CONVECTION TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT THE GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST...MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND THUS
GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM SOMEWHERE AROUND BILLINGS
TO ROUNDUP AROUND 00Z TO 02Z AND TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THUS HAVE KEPT AN ISOLATED POP FOR CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
03Z...TRENDING DOWN THEREAFTER.
CHURCH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT THRU A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WSW FLOW ALOFT...AND PER LATEST RAP H5 ANALYSIS OUR
HEIGHTS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO RISE. AT 2 AM THERE EXISTS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CWA BUT THERE IS MORE UPSTREAM FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MT TO NORTHERN NV. HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY
BUT IN THE MEANTIME AREAS OF PV INTERACTING WITH PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME AFTN DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP. FEEL THAT BY LATE AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING THE PV WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH AND MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO ADDRESS TODAY EXISTS IN OUR EAST. SLOWER
ONSET OF HEIGHT RISES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS EAST. ASCENT WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT...AND
A LOW LEVEL JET BY EVENING...WITH 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS. HAIL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE HIGH PWAT AIR IN PLACE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING IN OUR EAST IN THE HWO/GRAPHIC.
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 590S...CORRESPONDING WITH 700MB
TEMPS TO NEAR +16C. THIS TONGUE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SELY SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING...SO IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP WITH ISOLD
TSTMS MENTIONED IN OUR EAST. OUR CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS WILL BE
MUCH DRIER WITH DEEPER MIXING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FOR
MOST OF THIS AREA BUT KEPT ISOLD POPS IN OUR NW...CLOSER TO COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WESTERN MT. COULD SEE SOME
RIDGE RUNNER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
FEEL THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF
2014 FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED WE SHOULD
SEE SOME AREAS REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK...PERHAPS BILLINGS. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 101F MAY BE APPROACHED AT LIVINGSTON...
ESPECIALLY IF SW WINDS MIX OUT. RECORDS AT BILLINGS...MILES CITY
AND SHERIDAN APPEAR TOO HIGH TO BE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE...THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON OUR DRYING
FUELS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY BY THURSDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THURSDAY STILL SHAPING UP FOR A POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ALOFT CRASH THROUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONSISTENCY
REMAINS VERY GOOD WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO INCREASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +28C TO 30C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500 MB. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS COMBINED
WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS...WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY FOR DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 21 AND 03 UTC. SOME
RISK OF MVFR OR LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXISTS WITH ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP...AND THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-
EASTERN MT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/098 066/098 057/085 057/085 058/087 059/090
2/T 21/U 11/N 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 090 055/099 056/091 049/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
2/T 21/B 11/N 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 092 059/100 062/101 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
2/T 21/U 11/G 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 090 065/098 067/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
3/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 11/N 11/U 11/U
4BQ 090 061/098 064/100 058/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
3/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 086 060/091 062/096 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
4/T 32/T 22/T 21/U 11/N 11/U 11/U
SHR 090 057/098 059/098 053/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
2/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
IN SHORT...THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ONE BEING ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY-ADVISORY
LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...AND THE OTHER BEING WHETHER OR NOT A FEW ISOLATED
STORM/POSSIBLY A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CAN FLARE UP AND BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE GENERALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THIS MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG CONVECTION...AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. STARTING WITH THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A WEAK ELEVATED STORM SLIPPING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
FORMAL MENTION INTO A PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE...AS SOME MODELS SHOW POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS ARE BONE DRY.
STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4 AM...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE
LOCAL AREA A SMATTERING OF WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ROAMING PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB AND ALSO A SMALL
PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL IA. THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT THE EXPANSIVE HIGH/ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM ITS CENTRAL CORE OVER THE
NM/CO BORDER AREA. IN THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE THE NORTH...A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MN. ESSENTIALLY...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED A MODEST
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS LEADING
EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
EVIDENCED BY A SHIFT TO SOME NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS OBSERVED SOME VARIATION OF SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY BREEZES IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER LOW- 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA CONTINUES HOLDING ONTO UPPER
60S-LOW 70S DEWPOINTS...MAKING FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM
MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A RANGE FROM UPPER
60S/NEAR-70 WEST TO UPPER 70S-NEAR 80 EAST GIVEN THIS DEWPOINT
GRADIENT.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE EDGING SLIGHTLY NORTH
MORE OVER CO...AND THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA BEING FLATTENED SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES AREA TROUGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT SHOULD EASE WITH TIME...MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING NORTHEAST BREEZES UP TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE STALLING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
STATE LINE WILL OBSERVE A LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE
AS THE FRONT IS REINFORCED NEAR THE STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. ALTHOUGH VERY WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 13-15C AT 700MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FIRMLY CAP LOW-LEVEL BASED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE HINTS THAT A FEW ELEVATED
SPRINKLES OR EVEN WEAK STORMS COULD PERCOLATE ABOVE THE CAP ALONG
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT IN CASE SOME LOW POPS MIGHT NEED ADDED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
NOTEWORTHY AND LOWER-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEARER THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ALTHOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY NO GUARANTEE GIVEN
THE STRONG CAP...THE HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER
CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 25KT AT MOST OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOME MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH OTHERS IN THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS FOR
EXAMPLE THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF STRONGLY SUGGESTS IT WHILE THE LATEST
08Z RAP KEEPS STORMS AT BY LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/9PM. AT
ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING TO COVER AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE VERY CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
UPGRADED MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS/DOWNBURST ACTIVITY...AND LESS-SO LARGE HAIL GIVEN SUCH WARM
THERMAL PROFILES. SPEAKING OF THERMAL...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...AS MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS
ON HOW FAST THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WHETHER DEWPOINTS AGAIN SPIKE BACK UP BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AFTER FALLING OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. TOOK A BEST STAB AT
HIGHS USING A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM LOW
90S FAR NORTH...MID 90S CENTRAL AND GENERALLY 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH TO SEE PARTS OF THE NORTH STAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
THE NET RESULT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IS THAT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
A YORK-MINDEN LINE (INCLUDING KS) APPEAR MOST FAVORED TO
REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 105...AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH OF THE HIGHER-
THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE OF 110+ HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT
MATERIALIZED YESTERDAY IN EASTERN ZONES. OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA
TO THE NORTH AND WEST...IT WILL OBVIOUSLY STILL BE HOT...BUT
LOOKING FOR SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE INTO THE
95-102 RANGE.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...OBVIOUSLY HEAT INDEX/ADVISORY ISSUES
WILL QUICKLY ABATE...LEAVING THE ULTIMATE QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...FLOW WILL TURN EVEN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PARKS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER CENTRAL CO...WHICH ACTUALLY
ALLOWS MID LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY ALONG A TRACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO IA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES AROUND 10 MPH WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. ONE SCENARIO IS THAT ONCE ANY
EVENING ACTIVITY DIES OUT OR MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT NOTHING ELSE OCCURS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT (PER THE ECMWF AND ALSO THE NSSL 4KM-WRF).
MEANWHILE...OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS AND ALSO THE 4KM
WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOW POTENTIALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF A STORM COMPLEX RIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS/NORTHWEST NEB
AREA. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY HERE...OPTED NOT TO GET
CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AND JUST BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA WITH A GENERIC SLIGHT 20 PERCENT POP FOR THE
LATER NIGHT HOURS. BESIDES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SUPPOSE AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN WESTERN
ZONES...BUT CURRENT MODELS/GUIDANCE DO NOT SUPPORT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BAD ENOUGH/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FORMAL FORECAST
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR TSTMS...NOTHING IS LOOKING WIDESPREAD
OR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
FOLLOWING THE REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...READINGS
WILL TREND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE GREAT LAKES THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE HOT AIR RETREATS AND COOLER AIR BACKS
IN FROM THE EAST AND H85 TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES AND WE ARE
LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES TO AROUND 90F IN THE SW. A 1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW AND BRING THE COOLEST CONDITIONS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR REMNANT
CONVECTION TO LINGER FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST AGAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATING
EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFIES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM THRU FRIDAY AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN AVERAGE IN THE 90S. A PROGRESSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN CONUS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CHCS FOR STORMS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE WITH
THE BOUNDARY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN IN THE MORE
MERIDIONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
READINGS OR BELOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS IN THE
OUTER PERIODS AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND BOUNDARIES MOVE THRU.
THIS BEING SAID NOTHING SAID THERE IS NO REAL CONCLUSIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION EITHER AND HAVE ONLY CARRIED LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE
EAST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-074>077-
083>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
202 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE CASCADES. A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF
THE CREST...40-45 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-
750 J/KG WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE.
AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.
ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N
OF A K6S2-KKLS LINE. S OF THIS LINE IS ALSO VFR BUT WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE A FEW LOCAL
MVFR POCKETS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LIFR MARINE STRATUS HAS SURGED N FROM K6S2 TO JUST N OF KONP.
EXPECT TRENDS TO PERSIST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 10Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE 5000
FT. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS EVENING...OR OVER MUCH
OF THE OPS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FOR NOW. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY WITH
A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH
PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS NOTED IN MORNING UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
TODAY ON THE PLATEAU LIKELY DUE TO SOME SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT CSV FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
ALL AIRPORTS. MVFR VIS DUE TO PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
CKV/CSV.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S PER LATEST OBS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...AND A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 90S
UP TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. POPS MAY BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER
SOUTH AND EAST ZONES BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS BUT WILL LEAVE AS
IS FOR NOW.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IMPACTS WILL BE AT
KCSV. INCLUDED VCTS AGAIN AS LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCLEAR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
MID STATE BUT SHOULD STAY AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONLY
OBSTRUCTIONS WOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TOWARD THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS HELPED TO
PROLONG THE NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...BROKEN CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH PCLDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER TROUGHING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANSION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.. THE PATTERN OVER THE MID STATE WILL THEN MORPH INTO MORE OF A
ROBUST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OF TN
BY THURSDAY.
SO FOR THE FCST...LOW CONVECTION CHANCES FOR TODAY AS THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. POPS
WILL INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE NEAR TERM
TEMPS...QUITE WARM TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE...COMPLIMENTS OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
WE`LL COOL THINGS OFF BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
IN THE EXT FCST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DESCENT SHOT OF RAIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE MID STATE ON MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH INDICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S..
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WARM AGAIN THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE LOOKING VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern
Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at
the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo,
moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have
developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City.
Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively
removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support
thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values
on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells
will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in
place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried
through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon.
Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling
into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into
the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures
will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light
winds from a generally easterly direction.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern
Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will
continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above
normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper
trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper
ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the
upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal
heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits
down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are
indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River
Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity.
At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the
forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south
into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT
low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any
associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the
inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the
forecast dry at this time.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 74 99 74 100 74 / 0 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 73 100 71 101 72 / 5 5 5 10 5
Junction 71 98 71 98 72 / 0 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ENDED UP EXCEEDING 100 FROM MADISON AND WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARED AWAY. MADISON REACHED A
HIGH OF 90 OR GREATER FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
SPC TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST AGAIN WITH
THE 3 PM UPDATE. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA CAPPED
/NO CONVECTION/ UNTIL THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI OR EVEN
NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. SPC
MESOANALYSIS RAP IS SHOWING ERODING CIN ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
WI...SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MKX FORECAST AREA. WE CANNOT RULE STORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...SURFACE FRONT...VERY HIGH
CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG AND SIGNS OF SLIGHT UPSTREAM COOLING AT 700-
850MB.
THE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION ARE: THE CAP. THE WESTERLY
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WE WILL HAVE TO SIT AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE
CAP BREAKS AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS
LIMITED BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 WILL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER AND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. STEADY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
THE QUIET AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATER WED NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS ONLY GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...CANADIAN MAINTAINS WMFNT
ORIENTATION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MO/SRN IL. LATEST ECMWF A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WHICH CLIPS PORTIONS OF SW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH CONVECTION GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN.
WL LEAN TOWARD MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND KEEP LOWER POPS IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH. ECMWF AND
NAM SHOW STRONGER W-NW FLOW STEERING FLOW ACROSS SRN WI WHILE GFS
STRONGER SW. GFS REMAINS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. TOO MANY
DESCREPANCIES SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.
LIKE NCEP WPC BLENDED...PREFER ENSEMBLE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE CONVERGING ON
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION.
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND FLATTEN EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO PHASE THIS SYSTEM WITH EASTERN
CANADA LONG WAVE TROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
GFS BRINGS SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH REGION.
BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL HAVE
USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SRN WI...HOWEVER WEAK RIPPLES IN
FAST NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AROUND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY KENOSHA AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST IL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IF THEY DEVELOP. EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS WED MIDDAY ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
BEACHES...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WILL BE IN A HIGH
RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE IN A MODERATE RISK OF SWIMMING
HAZARDS TONIGHT AND HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY LMZ643>646 UNTIL 02Z/23.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK
CONTINUES WITH THE MODEL. SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
RADAR RETURNS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SW WISCONSIN ON LEADING EDGE OF
850 MB WARM ADVECTION...IN REGION OF DECENT CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER NO
GROUND TRUTH AS PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ABOVE DRY...WARM LAYER BETWEEN
750MB AND 650 MB RESULTING IN VIRGA ONLY MAKING IT DOWN TO AROUND 5K
FT ABOVE THE GROUND.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE DAY AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONSENSUS SFC-BASED CAPE INCREASES TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG BUT
CIN REMAINS IN THE 150 TO 200 J/KG RANGE. NAM DOES SHOW AN ERODING
CAP TOWARDS THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT IT HAS DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 80F AND SB-CAPE APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FOLLOWING LOWER
CONSENSUS TEMPS/DEW POINTS TRENDS TOWARD THE MORE CAPPED SOLUTION.
BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS ACCOMPANIES MEAGER 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING AS SRN EDGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS IF CAP IS BROKEN AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL LIMIT POPS TO
MID-HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOW-MID 70S
DEW POINTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA AROUND LONE ROCK. NOT
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING THE FORECAST IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICKER
THAN EXPECTED AND TOO SMALL AN AREA FOR A HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE
ISSUANCE OF SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE NEAR-ADVISORY WARMTH.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY PLEASANT
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES. THREW IN SOME LOW POPS
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH HEADS EAST AND WARM
ADVECTION MAY KICK OFF A FEW STORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A WEAK WAVE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
AS WELL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. CURRENT BAND OF HIGH-
BASED PRECIPITATION ON RADAR OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE GROUND...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE REPORTED VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG COLD FRONT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BREAK
THROUGH WARM MID-LEVEL CAP. WILL KEEP VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
TAFS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IF/WHEN THEY DEVELOP. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT WILL LOWER AND TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT.
MARINE...HAVE LEFT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOURS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO REACH CRITERIA
MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING
AS COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WAVES WILL BE SLOWER
TO LOWER...SO 9 PM END TIME IS LOOKING GOOD. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS TODAY. WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL ONLY SEE WAVES BUILD TO 1
TO 3 FEET AT MOST ALONG THE BEACHES...THE NORTHERN 2 ZONES MAY SEE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES...ESPECIALLY AT SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. THIS
PLACES SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES IN A MODERATE RISK OF
SWIMMING HAZARDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING SOME ECHOES DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LINE ON THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. LOOKING AT THE MESO SCALE MODELS THIS
MORNING...THE HRRR AND RAP ARE PRETTY MUCH USELESS AS THEY TURN
THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT WAY TOO QUICKLY. THE
22.00Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND CONTINUE MOVING IT EAST TAKING IT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE 22.00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDING FOR LADYSMITH...THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE CAP HOLDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING
ECHOES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THESE ARE JUST STARTING TO GET
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE GROUND. THE HI-RES NMM SHOWS THE ECHOES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO BEND MORE OFF TO THE EAST BUT DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THEM
EXPANDING AND KEEPS THEM SCATTERED. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH DOWN TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT FOR THIS
MORNING. TO HANDLE THE LIGHT ECHOES...WILL SHOW ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
AS FAR SOUTH AS I90 UNLESS OBSERVATIONS START INDICATING THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...THE FORCING FROM THIS WAVE
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL IT HAS MOVED PAST THE AREA. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR
BLUE RIVER INDICATES THE CAP WILL HOLD IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE 22.00Z GFS HOLDS IT INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
CAP REMAINING IN PLACE...ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THIS EVENING
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST IN CASE THE NAM IS CORRECT
AND THE CAP DISSIPATES A LITTLE SOONER...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO A
20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ARE A PRETTY GOOD
BET. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN GET INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL BE ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY TO HANDLE THIS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GETS
FLATTENED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COMES FROM
HOW FAST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CUT THROUGH THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 22.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND 22.00Z GEM ON BRINGING THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...ALL OF THEM SHOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN WITH THE WAVE AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE GFS AND
GEM BEING A LITTLE SLOWER...WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW STILL LOOK TO COME THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
DRIER AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AT MID DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE 10KG G15-20KT
RANGE. DEW POINTS WERE DROPPING FROM THE LOW-MID 70S TO THE MID 60S.
HOWEVER A BAND OF 2K-3K FT STRATO-CU WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST WI
TO SOUTHWEST MN...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR.
THIS BAND OF CLOUDS THINNING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT STILL APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME BKN025 CIGS AT KRST THRU 20Z. WITH CONTINUED
THINNING APPEARS LOWER CLOUDS AT KLSE WILL REMAIN SCT AS THE BAND
MOVES ACROSS IN THE 19-21Z PERIOD.
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THEN
EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT AND FOR WED AS DRIER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY RADIATIONAL VALLEY BR/FG IN THE 09-13Z
TIME-FRAME TO A MINIMUM AND LEFT THIS OUT OF THE KLSE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
359 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
FAR LESS COVERAGE OF CU COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME MONDAY WHICH
SURELY IS INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. SFC MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED BEHIND LAST NIGHTS WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH THE 50F
ISODROSOTHERM BANKED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE. AM BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NRN
LARAMIE RANGE...AND SOME NR THE SNOWY AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
TOO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY HEALTHY CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CAP CONTINUE
TO ERODE THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CAP WILL MEAN DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE A BIT LATER IN DEVELOPING...WHICH ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR WILL BE BETWEEN 3-6 PM. LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN END
OF GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES LOOK TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE INITIALLY.
WILL SEE ADDL DEVELOPMENT OVR NORTHEAST WYOMING DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
FAR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. IT IS THIS AREA WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST
WITH SBCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG ONCE THE CAP BREAKS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS/TEMPS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL
MEAN LESS OF A CAP AND A LIKELY EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES BY
MIDDAY. PROGD SBCAPES OVR THE ERN PLAINS CLIMB ABOVE 3000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KNOTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMING
SEVERE. STORMS WILL SPREAD ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING
THE EVENING. AREAS OVR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY BE INFLUENCED A
BIT TOO MUCH BY THE CAP...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH THERE.
CONVECTION AGAIN WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES THRU THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL BE FLATTENED AND WEAKENED BY THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE. SO EXPECT A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. EVEN
SO...WEAK INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AGAIN REACH 90S AT
MOST LOCATION AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BUT BEGINS TO ERODE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WKND. FAIRLY POTENT
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES
AND BRINGS A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA (THE
STRONGEST FRONT WILL BE SAT EVENING). UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP
BY FRI AFTN AS DEW POINTS APPROACH THE MID 50S OVER THE PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME BOTH FRI AND SAT SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE
FCST. THE ECMWF IS MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS ATTM AND GENERATES A
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH AFTN AND EVENING. TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY...BUT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
THE MID 80S BY MONDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WY AND NEAR 90 FOR AREAS OF
THE PANHANDLE AS 700 MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 15C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20
KTS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE STORMS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...MAINLY FROM 01-05Z. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014
WINDS HAVE HELD BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THUS FAR TODAY...DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LARAMIE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DISTRICT...SOME OF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME SEVERE IN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DRIER AND
BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN CARBON AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME NEAR CRITICAL
IN THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE CRITICAL
OVER WESTERN CARBON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IN TIME. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN