Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/21/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TUCSON AZ
518 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS SPC STABILITY
DIAGNOSTICS...HAVE UPDATED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO CONFINE SHOWERS/
TSTMS THIS EVENING TO ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. 21/00Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED A VERY STABLE AND QUITE DRY
REGIME...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF PLUS 2...AND TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE
OF 0.99 INCH. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR AREA-WIDE BY ABOUT 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT MST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 20/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AND
MOVING NORTH. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WITH STEERING FLOW
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING HAD THE LOWEST/DRIEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...ESPECIALLY FOR A MORNING
SOUNDING WITH A VALUE OF 1.04 INCHES. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS PW VALUE
FALLS IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS PRETTY
DRY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. THAT SAID...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP AS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST SONORA AND NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA. A FEW CELLS COULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AS WELL. U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM MODEL AND HRRR SHOW A
SIMILAR SCENARIO. THAT SAID...THINK THE POP FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...WILL BASE MY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING LARGELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH A SIMILAR THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND I DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED POP FORECAST
DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES THIS TIME OF YEAR. I INHERITED AN
UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR NOGALES AND DOUGLAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THIS HAPPENING IS NOT AS HIGH SINCE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE RIDGE BUILDING WEDNESDAY AND NEARLY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WERE SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT NOW THIS FEATURE IS LESS
PRONOUNCED AND FARTHER SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY MAY BE TOO HIGH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL WANT TO TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THIS AFTER RECEIPT OF 00Z MODEL RUNS.
THE BIG STORY HOWEVER IS THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FOR TUCSON EXPECTED TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE 110 DEG MARK...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL...OTHERWISE HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY. LOWS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST EXCEEDS RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL. THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST 110 TEMPS OF THE YEAR AND HOTTEST JULY TEMPS SINCE 2011 (110
OR GREATER OCCURRENCES ARE MOST COMMON IN JUNE BEFORE THE MONSOON
ARRIVES).
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA SE OF KTUS AND MAINLY EAST OF KFHU EASTWARD TO
KDUG THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH -TSRA. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXCEPT FOR THE GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD...WHERE
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AROUND 15 KTS THRU EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ISOLD
-TSRA/-SHRA EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND BRING
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN
AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WILL BE PREVAIL THIS EVENING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH AND KIPL AND OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
KPHX AND KIWA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 115 DEGREES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...THOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. SOME
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING BKN
CLOUD DECKS...CIGS AS LOW AS 10KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOUTHEAST CA
REMAINING LONGER WITH THICKER CLOUDS/LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
910 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THROUGH FAR WESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
STEADY WARMING TREND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA WAS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHEAR NORTH WITH A VERY DISTINCT
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR KNYL. FORCED ASCENT AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN MORE THAN EFFICIENT TO
SPARK SCT SRHA/TSRA IN TWO ELONGATED ARMS OF LIFT STRETCHING THROUGH
WRN ARIZONA AND SERN CALIFORNIA. ESSENTIALLY NO FORECAST MODEL
CAPTURED THE BREADTH AND DURATION OF THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY RECENTLY HAS THE HRRR INITIALIZED WITH RADAR RETURNS SHOWN SOME
SORT OF ACCURATE DEPICTION. HAVE UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SOUTHERN MOST ARM OF ASCENT LIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
REVISIONS TO CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS MUTING FORECAST HIGHS OUT TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD PARTIALLY INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION. DID
NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POP/WX FORECASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
VORTICITY CENTER ALREADY CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/535 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014/
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ WHERE THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STEERING FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 KT AND IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND A SPRAWLING
RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AZ...IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 50 KT
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND THEN
BACK INTO SE AZ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE 03Z SREF. ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE CA...INCLUDING JTNP...WHERE INSTABILITY...ASCENT
AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES TO OVER 600
DAM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DRIFT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY
ONWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL
TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY
BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A PV
DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING BKN
CLOUD DECKS...CIGS AS LOW AS 10KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOUTHEAST CA
REMAINING LONGER WITH THICKER CLOUDS/LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
535 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ WHERE THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STEERING FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 KT AND IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND A SPRAWLING
RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AZ...IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 50 KT
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND THEN
BACK INTO SE AZ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE 03Z SREF. ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE CA...INCLUDING JTNP...WHERE INSTABILITY...ASCENT
AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES TO OVER 600
DAM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DRIFT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY
ONWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL
TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY
BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A PV
DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING BKN
CLOUD DECKS...CIGS AS LOW AS 10KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOUTHEAST CA
REMAINING LONGER WITH THICKER CLOUDS/LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ WHERE THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STEERING FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 KT AND IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND A SPRAWLING
RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AZ...IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 50 KT
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND THEN
BACK INTO SE AZ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE 03Z SREF. ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE CA...INCLUDING JTNP...WHERE INSTABILITY...ASCENT
AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES TO OVER 600
DAM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DRIFT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY
ONWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL
TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY
BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A PV
DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CIGS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SPRINKLES THAT FALL FROM THESE CLOUDS
COULD AFFECT ONE...OR MORE OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY -SHRA OR VCSH
REMARKS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE
AT LEAST SOME CLEARING AT THE PHX AREAS SITES...BUT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A REMOTE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TO BE
IN THE CARDS FOR THE SE CA TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE SOME GUSTY S-LY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH MODERATE TO
GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EACH DAY. WIND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS AND AVERAGE ABOUT 10 KTS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL PEAK IN
THE 110-115 RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MEET MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF
NW CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN LANGUISH IN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AGAIN THIS EVENING AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN COASTAL AREAS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY MAY DIP ENOUGH
ENERGY INTO NW CAL TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE WILD CARDS IN THE FORECAST.
FIRST IS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHWEST HIGH. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THIS REGION, BUT WHERE IT ENTERS NOR CAL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THE SECOND WILD CARD IS A SMALL WEAK AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CAL. THIS LOW COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH GUIDANCE FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO HEAD INTO
NW CAL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST, BUT STILL HELD
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
CONVECTION WILL NEED THE LIFT OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GET ABOVE A
STUBBORN 700MB CAP. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP STEERING WINDS WILL
BE SO WEAK THAT THE CELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH. WINDS AT
THE STORM TOPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15 KTS AT BEST. SO SUNDAY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A PULSING EVENT WITH CELLS POPPING UP THEN
COLLAPSING THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING WITH THIS CONVECTION, BUT
STRIKES OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE NEXT COUPLE FOR ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS OF NW CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO OVERDO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC VIEW OF CONDITIONS. THE
NAM IS ALSO INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE THE GFS. THE HRRR AND WRF
ARE ALSO LESS ROBUST ON CONVECTION THAN THE GFS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS
BRINGS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION OVER NW CAL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS ROBUST ON THIS SOLUTION. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, BUT MAINTAINED THEM SOLELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TRINITY CO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND ACROSS NW CAL WED
INTO THU. THIS MAY BRING A SHOT OF A PASSING SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS SO LOW DUE TO THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS THAT I OPTED TO
KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE. LATE IN THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
BFG
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DIMINISH AT KCEC AND KACV
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO IFR AND TEMPORARY
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO INCREASING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
WEAKENS RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING.
VFR.
ESE-SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE
AT KGON WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU 23Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH A MID TO HIGH BROKEN/OVERCAST CIG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
MONTAUK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR KISP AND KGON TO GET SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT FORM THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS.
LGT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING SUCH ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AT KLGA MAY HOLD ON TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH A MID TO HIGH BROKEN/OVERCAST CIG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
MONTAUK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LGT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTN...BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING SUCH ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT
KLGA SHOULD BE LAST TO BECOME SE LATE THIS AFTN AND MAY HOLD ON TO
EAST NORTHEAST BEYOND TIME FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SHRA AND SCT TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH A MID TO HIGH BROKEN/OVERCAST CIG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
MONTAUK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR KISP AND KGON TO GET SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT FORM THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS.
LGT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING SUCH ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT
KLGA MAY HOLD ON TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE AND A SECONDARY SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB HAS PREVENTED A
LOT OF THE RADAR ECHOS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE
NJ AND DE COASTLINES. WILL INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THOSE REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THOSE REGIONS. FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ACCOUNTED FOR LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL. THE HRRR ALSO HINTS AT
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PA AFTER 03Z, SO
WENT SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING AT 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
AWAY FROM THE COAST GIVEN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE DRIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. USING THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS REFERENCE WOULD
YIELD A HIGH OF 83 AT PHL TOMORROW WHILE THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 80. COMPONENTS OF THE MAV AND MET WERE
USED TO GET IN THIS RANGE. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS WELL. IN TERMS OF POPS AND CLOUD
COVER, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION BUT APPEAR
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY STABLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM BERKS COUNTY INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY
AND IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO THE SOUTH.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE NEW WEEK. A PIECE OF THE HOT AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AT
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE
AROUND 18C OR 19C. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TO THEIR DRY ADIABATIC POTENTIAL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREDICT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
IT NO LONGER LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOUTHEASTWARD. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S, SO THE MENTION
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A CAP MAY
PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AT THAT TIME.
THE GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE BOUNDARY.
ALSO, WE ARE SEEING A TREND TOWARD CONSENSUS ON DRY AIR BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACY WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ACY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND FOUR FEET ARE LIKELY TOMORROW ON THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE AND A SECONDARY SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB HAS PREVENTED A
LOT OF THE RADAR ECHOS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE
NJ AND DE COASTLINES. WILL INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THOSE REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THOSE REGIONS. FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ACCOUNTED FOR LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HRRR ALSO HINTS AT ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO
EASTERN PA AFTER 03Z, SO WENT SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING AT 00Z FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST GIVEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE DRIER. THERE WAS GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. USING
THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS REFERENCE WOULD YIELD A HIGH OF 83 AT
PHL TOMORROW WHILE THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
80. COMPONENTS OF THE MAV AND MET WERE USED TO GET IN THIS RANGE.
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS
WELL. IN TERMS OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY
PASS THROUGH THE REGION BUT APPEAR TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL
EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY STABLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM BERKS COUNTY INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY
AND IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO THE SOUTH.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE NEW WEEK. A PIECE OF THE HOT AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AT
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE
AROUND 18C OR 19C. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TO THEIR DRY ADIABATIC POTENTIAL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREDICT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
IT NO LONGER LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOUTHEASTWARD. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S, SO THE MENTION
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A CAP MAY
PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AT THAT TIME.
THE GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE BOUNDARY.
ALSO, WE ARE SEEING A TREND TOWARD CONSENSUS ON DRY AIR BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACY WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ACY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND FOUR FEET ARE LIKELY TOMORROW ON THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 16Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 KT RANGE OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 16Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK ERLY/SERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 200-250 THIS MORNING TO
100-120 TONIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KACY. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 13Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK ERLY/SERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 200-250 THIS MORNING TO
100-120 TONIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KACY. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 13Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK ERLY/SERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 200-250 THIS MORNING TO
100-120 TONIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KACY. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
CHCS ARE RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1020 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA MONDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL WEST OF
THE REGION. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BUILDS BACK FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE SUNDAY EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AT THE
INTERSECTION OF MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
BEAUFORT COUNTY...SOUTHERN COLLETON COUNTY AND WESTERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY. HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY/RATES AND REPEATING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT IN THIS AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE UPPER SC COAST WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE BREAK THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE RUC13 UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
ASSESS.
ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINTAINED A GENERAL UPTICK IN POPS
AS THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS E/NE TOWARD THE REGION. MAINTAINED A
GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY EAST OF I-95/ACROSS
SC ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
TOM CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A WET PERIOD THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DEEP LAYER...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...COUPLED WITH TROPICAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS/CHANCES FOR
RAIN. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH END CHANCE
TUESDAY...AND CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE NIGHTS. LIGHT WIND FIELDS
MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS LOCATED
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...AS A DEEP
LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE BUILDING RIDGE AND
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A REDUCTION IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...LOWER POPS...AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES. KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASED UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY AFTER THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
OF TERMINALS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.THERE
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT TERMINALS...
BUT PRECISE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ELUSIVE
AND HAS BEEN DEFERRED TO LATER TAF PACKAGES. 00Z TAFS WILL
MAINTAIN EXTENDED PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ON BALANCE MOST OF 00Z TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIOD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS SETUP WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH VFR DOMINATING THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BROAD S/SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 WILL
PREVAIL. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS
3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAIN.
THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED MAINLY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST...
VEERING WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AS PINCHING
SETS UP BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE INLAND AND THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW
HIGHLIGHTS...BUT COULD SEE INCREASES BACK TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT...DURING MORE TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL SURGE PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
844 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED IN OUR SRN ZONES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL CELLS
BROUGHT OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCAL BLOWING DUST BUT
LATER CELLS HAVE BEEN WETTER AND NOT AS WINDY. MUCH MORE INTENSE
WX HAS OCCURRED IN NWRN NEVADA WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...DUST
STORMS...AND RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT IS NEWD TOWARD OUR CWA. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN THEY GET HERE DURING THE COOLER NIGHTTIME
HOURS. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER AND THEREFORE
NOT AS UNSTABLE AS IT WOULD BE WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
TEND TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TUESDAY...HOWEVER...
LOOKS MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THAN MONDAY...AND WITH GREATER
SHEAR AS WELL...AS UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UPDATE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOR HIGHER POPS IN SRN ZONES TONIGHT
...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A KBNO-KMYL LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND/OR BLOWING DUST. MAINLY SOUTHWEST-WEST SURFACE WINDS 5-15
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT OF 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN IDAHO.
PRESENTLY STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE DCAPE VALUES AND THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTS TO 40KT WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
NEAR ONE INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND THUS HAVE ONLY
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THERE ARE BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT AND LESS CLOUDINESS
TO HELP AID SURFACE HEATING.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING IDZ401.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ORZ646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CDT
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL RAMP UP
IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN IS
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THERE A DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH THERE IS A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THEREFORE A LAKE BREEZE
HAS MADE HEADWAY INLAND ONCE AGAIN. FEW LITTLE SPECKLES ON THE RADAR
HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT FALL APART
ALMOST AS SOON AS THEY FORM. READINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 80S...AGAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKEFRONT.
THERE IS SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EMBEDDED
BENEATH A LARGER SCALE LOW FARTHER NORTH..BUT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING IT START TO FEEL A
BIT MORE LIKE IT USUALLY DOES IN MID JULY...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL ATTEMPT GLIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER JET REMAINS FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTH. BY
MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL. AS
THIS HAPPENING THERE ARE SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A DECAYING AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MID
RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS A BIT BETTER AND THERE IS A BIT STRONGER
WAVE TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SHOWING HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAN NORMAL AT THIS RANGE ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL ALLOW SOME ENERGY TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
1.75" OR SLIGHTLY MORE TO OUR WEST WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
AXIS IN NW FLOW SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH...PARTS OF THE REGION LOOK TO SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT REMAINS
POISED TO DRIVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO LAKE INFLUENCE.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPREAD FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CALM
TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. LAKE
INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY TURN WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ORD/MDW AND POSSIBLY DPA
DURING THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. WITH A SIMILAR SET UP TO
FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR SPEEDS TO OCCUR THE WIND SHIFT
SUPPORTING SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT AT TIMES AS WELL. GYY SHOULD SEE A MORE
EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN CALM. VFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH MID CLOUDS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS...MEDIUM-HIGH
THAT SPEEDS WILL REACH AT LEAST 10 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND
MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION AND FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS A LAKE BREEZE FORMS. FURTHER NORTH...THE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES...ITS
POSSIBLE WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT EASTERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TO HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1110 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Another quiet night weather-wise as high pressure off to our east
will continue to dominate our weather thru the weekend with a day
to day warming trend. In addition, surface dew points will gradaully
increase as well, especially when the surface flow becomes more
southerly on Sunday. Forecast soundings off the RAP model and the
last several runs of the HRRR model suggest the potential for some
fog to form just before dawn Saturday, especially across the east
and southeast. However, it still doesn`t appear to be widespread
enough at this time to warrant including in the zone forecast this
evening. As a result, our current ZFP is handling the evening
trends well, so an update is not warranted at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Little change from previous thinking earlier this evening. Other
than the potential for some shallow ground fog, which may bring
vsbys down into the MVFR range in the 10z-12z time frame, VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Forecast soundings suggest cumulus development around 16z with
scattered to broken cigs in the 4000-6000 foot range during the
afternoon with most sites seeing scattered cloud cover. Surface
winds will be light and variable tonight and then become east
to southeast at less than 10 kts on Saturday.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...
A shortwave trough is currently tracking ENE along the Ohio River
Valley away from Illinois with mid and high cloud cover
decreasing. Another day of scattered low level cumulus cloud
cover has developed as a result of a capped shallow convective
layer from around 6000-9000 feet and this will dissipate overnight
with the loss of surface heating. Dewpoints this afternoon are a
bit below forecast minimum temperatures overnight and look too
marginal for mention of fog in public forecasts...although some
shallow localized fog isn`t completely out of the question. For
Saturday...a very similar day is expected except a few degrees of
increase in both temperature and dewpoint are in store as the cool
air mass of the past several days moves off to the northeast.
LONG TERM...
A high pressure ridge will build over the Rockies and Western
Plains through early next week. This will yield a stable
atmospheric profile over central Illinois for dry
conditions...and an increasing trend in temperatures and
dewpoints. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees while dewpoints reach the lower 70s. By Late Tuesday or
Wednesday...models continue to bring a shortwave over the top of
the ridge to the west. This will likely bring a cold front through
the region for chances of precipitation back to Illinois. A
cooling trend with less humidity will likely accompany this
pattern as well Wednesday through Friday.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH RADAR SHOWING
SOME COVERAGE THERE NOW AND HRRR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR THESE
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HANG AROUND OFF AND ON
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS
WELL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO COVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE. SO...LEFT
OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S...WHICH WAS CAPTURED WELL BY ALLBLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES WITH
UPPER WAVES.
FIRST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE NAM AND WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NAM REMAINS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND MAINTAINS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR SUNDAY SINCE THE EURO ALSO SUPPORTS THE WETTER GFS.
TEMPS...GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO TREND THIS TOWARD THE COOLER NAM IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS INCREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF INDIANA WILL PUSH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THE GFS AND ECMWF PROGRESS TO NW
FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW TOWARD INDIANA
AND SETTLES IT OVER OUR STATE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GFS FAILS TO CREATE A CUT-OFF SYSTEM...BUT STILL MANAGES TO PUSH AN
OPEN TROUGH THROUGH INDIANA AT THE SAME TIME...AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
NW FLOW AND THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED BY BOTH
MODELS...CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
UNREASONABLE. HOWEVER...ALLBLEND IS GOING DRY BY FRIDAY. THUS WILL
KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.
LAMP GUIDANCE IS REMAINS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED 4-5SM
AND SCT015 AFTER ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH 14-15Z.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CUMULUS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT
EASTERN AREAS WHICH MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 23Z SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEFORMATION INTO OUR EAST MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR RAIN TO MEASURE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON TRENDS
WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KVES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT). GIVEN THESE TRENDS
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 69...WITH DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS LIKELY SLOWING NWD PROGRESSION...HENCE THE LOWER
POPS/UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER TO READ
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE IWX CWA
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WILL
SLOWLY EJECT TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLY...SPREADING MOISTURE
TOWARDS MAINLY SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NOT AN OVERLY STRONG SYSTEM BY ANY MEASURE WITH MAIN
IMPACTS BEING INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MARGINAL CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. IF POPS WEREN`T IN
ALREADY WOULD PROBABLY HOLD OFF DESPITE MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF IN
FAR EAST/SE AREAS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONSENSUS FROM MODELS TO KEEP
FROM FLIP FLOPPING SO HAVE LEFT POPS INTACT. DID TRY TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL/TIMING.
AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM A NICE DAY SHOULD
BE IN STORE WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES IN SE AREAS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIKELY LIMITING
OVERALL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...LOCAL AREA
SHOULD BE CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO AXES OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ONE DEPARTING
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER CONFINED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER
FORCING INTO MOST OF TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD
DRY. GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPSWING IN LOW
LEVEL WAA AND GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. A SERIES OF RIDGE-RIDING SHORT WAVES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER PROSPECTS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PUSH HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A STRONGER
EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL PERSISTS IN REGARDS TO TIMING THIS FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND MODELS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES. GFS/GEM REMAIN SOMEWHAT FASTER OUTLIERS IN TERMS OF FRONTAL
PROGRESSION INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO SIDE TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF/GEFS MEAN IDEA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
SUSPICION THAT GFS MAY BE LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS A BIT FAST DUE
TO FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MAINTAINS FORECAST
CONTINUITY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE TUE-WED...WHICH ARGUES FOR MID TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PARTS OF THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE
BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIVORCED FROM PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES.
HAVE CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DAMPENING OF UPPER RIDGING AND EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE WITHIN REACH...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTIES INTO TIMING INCREASE OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...A COOLER
AIR MASS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE LIGHT SE GRADIENT
WINDS ACROSS NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPR LEVEL LOW LIFTING
N-NE INTO WRN OH CAUSES CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE
INDIANA. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LIKELY IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
DOUBT THIS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN CU SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVE GIVEN VERY WEAK
FLOW OVER THE AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH RADAR SHOWING
SOME COVERAGE THERE NOW AND HRRR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR THESE
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HANG AROUND OFF AND ON
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS
WELL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO COVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE. SO...LEFT
OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S...WHICH WAS CAPTURED WELL BY ALLBLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES WITH
UPPER WAVES.
FIRST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE NAM AND WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NAM REMAINS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND MAINTAINS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR SUNDAY SINCE THE EURO ALSO SUPPORTS THE WETTER GFS.
TEMPS...GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO TREND THIS TOWARD THE COOLER NAM IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS INCREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MIDWEEK.
MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THEN...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE 00Z
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A MIDWEST
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
CANADIAN. THE LATTER BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE FORMER BRING IT DOWN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOLUTION STILL UP IN THE AIR...WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE SHOULD GET BETTER REGARDING THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
TEMPERATURES AS IT GETS CLOSER AND THE MODELS LIKELY CONVERGE ON A
MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.
LAMP GUIDANCE IS REMAINS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED 4-5SM
AND SCT015 AFTER ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH 14-15Z.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CUMULUS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES FROM 20Z-00Z. ON TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A SFC TROUGH WHILE
SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY (100-105) EXPECTED EAST OF THE TROUGH. WE
DO REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ACROSS THE SAME COUNTIES AS
MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
WARMEST READINGS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF HEATING TO WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16C-18C RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 100S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND CONVERGENT LINE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND
ELEVATED INHIBITION IS RATHER LOW. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER 3K J/KG CAPE ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY ECMWF/GFS
SHOW A SLUG OF 700-300MB MOISTURE EMERGING OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AT THE END OF THE DAY ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS UPPER JET DIVERGENT
SIGNATURE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE TO OUR WEST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 17C-19C PRETTY MUCH CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL.
700-300MB MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY CAPPED
PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OR IS IN THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KGLD IF A STORM MOVES OVERHEAD. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KMCK BUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SOME BRIEF
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH BUILDS NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE HOT...WARMING TO 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES WILL BE 105 TO 110 BY
LATE AFTERNOON. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BOTH DAYS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
SUNDAY THE DRY LINE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. DURING THE AFTERNOON MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES OVER
THE DRY LINE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. DIFFICULT TO
REALLY PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DUE TO
THE RATHER BROAD MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE BUT DUE TO THE RATHER
BROAD NATURE OF THE LIFT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE
THAN ISOLATED FOR THE STORM COVERAGE. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FROM DEVELOPING DUE TO SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30KTS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
SUNDAY EVENING 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA OVER THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800MB
OF 1800J/KG WITH 30J/KG OF CINH. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR NORTH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHERE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IF IT DEVELOPS. IF
STORMS DO FIRE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING/SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE ELEVATED
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...EXITING THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD OF THE DRY LINE SITUATED NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. MID LEVEL
LIFT DECLINES OVER THE DRY LINE AND BECOMES MORE BROAD IN NATURE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING
NORTHWARD. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER MODELS
DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE...SO WILL HAVE
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DRY LINE. STORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE EXITING THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
TUES JULY 22 THRU FRI JULY 25...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HOT AS AN UPPER HIGH/RIDGE DOMINATES THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN FOR MUCH OF THIS PATTERN.
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE LEAD TO ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS IS WARMEST AND WETTEST DUE TO ITS PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER HIGH NEXT WEEK...CONSISTENTLY PLACING THE 700MB LOW OVER
OR VERY CLOSE TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS
DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN
MOISTENING AND THUS INCREASING CAPE FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FIRE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THIS FLOW IS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT
LOW LEVELS...INCREASING TEMPS. ECMWF AND GEM MEANWHILE KEEP THE
UPPER HIGH FARTHER WEST AND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH...AND THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL DO NOT FEEL VERY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
KEPT HIGHS AT MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF DUE TO CURRENT
MINOR DIFFERENCES. NOT RECORD SETTING HEAT AT ALL...BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KGLD IF A STORM MOVES OVERHEAD. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KMCK BUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SOME BRIEF
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JJM/JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
PRIMARILY AFFECTED THE POP AND WX SCHEMES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NEW
00Z NAM12 SUGGEST A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS FIRST WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTS AFTER 06Z WITH A
RESURGENCE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAWN. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ITS ATTENDANT JET STREAKS AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HAVE BEEFED UP
THE RAIN TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHEAST A BIT MORE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE TRAINING...EXPECT THE RATES TO REMAIN
AT A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS KEEPING THE AMOUNTS
AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL...THOUGH IT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THE RATES PICK UP WITH THIS CURRENT SURGE OR
THE NEXT. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TARGETING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DREARY DAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COOL AIR PREVENTED
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...ZEROING OUT THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE MOISTURE INFLOW AND FOCUSING
MECHANISM...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM CONCUR WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT AS BOTH TARGET THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE MOST SUSTAINED RAINS AND TIMES OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES.
EVEN WITHOUT THE SHOWERS THE AIR MASS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DAMP
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST WITH THIS IN MIND ALONG WITH THE INCORPORATION OF THE
LATEST RADAR/OBS DATA...TRENDS...AND HIGH RES CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THIS HAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE A COMBINATION OF THE OVER RUNNING OF THE
FRONT AND THE DYNAMICS FROM BEING NEAR THE UPPER LOW. HAVE DECIDED TO
TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL STABILITY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THEY WOULD BE RARE. THE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
MODERATED BY ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL LIKELY SET A MIN HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM NEAR DAWN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DUE TO THE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...AND THE RIVERS
STARTING OUT VERY LOW...THE ONLY HYDROLOGY ISSUES SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER...WITH STREAMS....DITCHES... AND LOW WATER
CROSSING RUNNING FULL OVER THE AREAS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SIT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
DAY 5 ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING SITS OVER THE SW. AS
SUCH...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL MEAN BOTH THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS
THE DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS AT
THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BEGIN IMPACTING KY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS WELL. KEPT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
NEARS AND PASSES OVER. POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FRIDAY.
TEMPS LEADING UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...ALONG
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SHORTLY BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE...STEADY RAIN WAS ON THE WAY OUT TO THE
NE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER EAST KY. CONDITIONS WERE
LARGELY IFR OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
EAST KY...CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER WEST...
CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY VFR.
THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BEFORE
DAWN...AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFECT ALL
OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS AROUND
MOUNT STERLING AND FLEMINGSBURG. A DETERIORATION TO MOSTLY IFR IS
EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PRECIP DISSIPATES...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S/M80S. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. SHRA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA OVER CENTRAL NC
MAY DRIFT N INTO INTERIOR NE NC AND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE 30-40% OVER FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT W/ LO TEMPS
FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING...IMPROVING BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. MOS HAS
IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS BUT ONLY PUT THAT WITH SBY.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SBY WHERE MVFR CIGS HAVE PREVAILED ALL DAY.
CIGS BRIEFLY WENT SCT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z. RUC MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE TAF WHICH INDICATES LOW LEVEL DRYING AND HAVE
PREDOMINANT VFR BY 02Z. IFR WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS IS INDICATED FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. NAM AND GFS MOS BOTH INDICATE LOW CIGS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF IS LOW. NOTE THAT OBS ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE AND WILL
MONITOR AS WELL AS PSBL.
SCT PCPN IS PSBL BOTH ACRS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTN. COVERAGE WILL
BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY SCT TSTMS AS
WELL AS EARLY MRNG STRATUS AND FOG. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT PSBL ON FRIDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
&&
.MARINE...
7PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA IN THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONE TILL 1AM.
SEAS CONTINUED NEAR 6 FT THROUGH 7PM BUT AT 8 PM WERE DOWN TO 5.2
FT. BASED ON WINDS ALONE...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND THIS IS WHAT THE
MODELS INDICATE BUT IF SWELLS FROM UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DEVELOP...
THESE COULD KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE SCA CAN BE LIFTED BY 1 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTRW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO
THE N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO
THE E AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY
W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING...IMPROVING BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. MOS HAS
IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS BUT ONLY PUT THAT WITH SBY.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS SBY WHERE MVFR CIGS HAVE PREVAILED ALL DAY.
CIGS BRIEFLY WENT SCT JUST PRIOR TO 00Z. RUC MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE TAF WHICH INDICATES LOW LEVEL DRYING AND HAVE
PREDOMINANT VFR BY 02Z. IFR WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS IS INDICATED FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. NAM AND GFS MOS BOTH INDICATE LOW CIGS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF IS LOW. NOTE THAT OBS ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE AND WILL
MONITOR AS WELL AS PSBL.
SCT PCPN IS PSBL BOTH ACRS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTN. COVERAGE WILL
BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY SCT TSTMS AS
WELL AS EARLY MRNG STRATUS AND FOG. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT PSBL ON FRIDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
7PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA IN THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONE TILL 1AM.
SEAS CONTINUED NEAR 6 FT THROUGH 7PM BUT AT 8 PM WERE DOWN TO 5.2
FT. BASED ON WINDS ALONE...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND THIS IS WHAT THE
MODELS INDICATE BUT IF SWELLS FROM UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DEVELOP...
THESE COULD KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE SCA CAN BE LIFTED BY 1 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTRW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO
THE N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER 24HRS AGO IS NOW JUST NE
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
FAR NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. SLOW MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NCNTRL MN INTO ADJACENT
ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVE NE OF LAKE WINNIPEG LIFTS NE TO HUDSON BAY. BECAUSE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE AND BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...COLD
FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES E TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY WILL ERODE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER
MI. SO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE W.
GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE LAST
24HRS AND SINCE MAIN FORCING IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA...NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS AFTN OVER THE W.
WITH MLCAPE ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500J/KG OR SO AND WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 25KT...STRONG OR SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS
TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT A NARROW BAND OF SCHC POPS EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AS FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.
SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER 24HRS AGO IS NOW JUST NE
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
FAR NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. SLOW MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NCNTRL MN INTO ADJACENT
ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVE NE OF LAKE WINNIPEG LIFTS NE TO HUDSON BAY. BECAUSE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE AND BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...COLD
FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES E TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY WILL ERODE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER
MI. SO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE W.
GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE LAST
24HRS AND SINCE MAIN FORCING IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA...NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS AFTN OVER THE W.
WITH MLCAPE ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500J/KG OR SO AND WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 25KT...STRONG OR SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS
TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT A NARROW BAND OF SCHC POPS EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AS FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.
SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
537 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER 24HRS AGO IS NOW JUST NE
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
FAR NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. SLOW MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NCNTRL MN INTO ADJACENT
ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVE NE OF LAKE WINNIPEG LIFTS NE TO HUDSON BAY. BECAUSE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE AND BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...COLD
FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES E TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY WILL ERODE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER
MI. SO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE W.
GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE LAST
24HRS AND SINCE MAIN FORCING IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA...NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS AFTN OVER THE W.
WITH MLCAPE ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500J/KG OR SO AND WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 25KT...STRONG OR SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS
TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT A NARROW BAND OF SCHC POPS EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AS FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.
SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT
IWD AND CMX AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS OF 2345Z AREA RADARS REVEAL LITTLE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE OCCURRED FROM
KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTHWEST TOWARD MAHNOMEN/FOSSTON THIS EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
IN AN AREA OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOWER SEVENTIES IN THAT AREA AND MLCAPE VALUES WERE
2000-3500J/KG PER THE 23Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. MUCH OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...THEN AN INCREASE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2Z-4Z. FORCING JUST IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MB/NORTHWEST OT AREA THAT MAY ADD ENOUGH
LIFT TO GET DEEPER CONVECTION GOING. ONCE DEEPER CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...SHEAR/CAPE ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW AND W FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MIXED LAYER
CAPE WILL LIKELY REACH THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE...DEEP LAYER (0
TO 6 KM) WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS...SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW 70S...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES. THE MID LEVEL CAP HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
LATER TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST. THE TROUGH WILL STALL AND
SET UP A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY COULD BE BROKEN AT BOTH DULUTH AND
INTERNATIONAL FALLS...WITH THE RECORDS FOR JULY 21ST BEING 68
DEGREES AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE HIGH HUMIDITY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT COULD CAUSE FOG TO
FORM OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
MONDAY...THE WARM AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OR NEAR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S...WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH OR REACH AROUND 100
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER NE MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE CHANCES NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...BECAUSE THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE SOUTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA CAPPED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
FOCUS IS ON A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT THAT
BECOMES POSITIONED OVER NW MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT
WAVE WITH H85 CLOSED LOW...WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TRIGGERING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. EXCESSIVE INSTABILITY (>3000 J/KG
CAPE) AND EXTREME PWAT VALUES (APPROACHING 2" OR 99TH PERCENTILE
OF NORMAL)...ALONG WITH A COUPLED JET AND LARGE OMEGA
VALUES...WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY EVENING IS FOCUSED
OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES AREAS...EAST THROUGH THE ST CROIX RIVER
VALLEY...AND INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION WHERE THE DEEP SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...THE LATEST
NAM/GFS/ECM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC REFLECTION TROUGH
THAT ORGANIZES ALONG THE BORDERLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON...SAGS SOUTH
OVER THE NRN HALF OF MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHES EAST
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WIS MID-DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT ARRIVES FOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINN MONDAY EVENING (5-7
PM TIME FRAME)...REACHING THE NRN WIS ZONES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO WIDESPREAD DEFINITE SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN WORDING MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE LIKELY...WITH AREAS THE RECEIVE THE STRONGER
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT COVERED MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. THE RAP SUGGESTS MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THAT HAPPENING
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
IMPACTING FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FORCING HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GET STRONG/WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE OCCURRING BETWEEN 2-4Z OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SOME FOG WILL AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN MONDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 71 88 67 67 / 50 10 90 70
INL 66 87 59 76 / 60 40 80 40
BRD 73 92 71 76 / 40 20 90 40
HYR 70 90 72 80 / 30 10 90 80
ASX 70 90 70 71 / 30 10 90 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ019-025-026-
033>038.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ001>003-
006>008.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS
ADVANCED INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
NOW IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT DIMINISHES AND
INSTABILITY WANES. UP UNTIL THE LAST SET OF RUNS...THE CAMS
INCLUDING HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-
FIRE LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH
INSTABILITY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT. THUS...KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT
REMOVED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90 TO 95 ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 80 DEG DP/S. APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY ARE FROM 100 TO 105 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
WEST TO THE SD BORDER AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME AREAS OF
105 TO 110 ARE NOTED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE MN CWA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE INDICES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN BUT COLLABORATION ISSUES AND THE DURATION OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
(ONLY ONE DAY) PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. HOWEVER...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERIOD WHERE RULES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. AS IT STANDS...THE
METRO AREA MEETS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IF THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD...THEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD LIKELY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE
DEW POINT NEAR 75. IN FACT...A YEAR AGO AND A DAY...7/18/13...MSP
HAD A HIGH OF 94 WITH A LOW OF 80 WITH HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN
EFFECT. THIS ALSO RAISES A RED FLAG ABOUT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS
THAT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON TUESDAY AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. IN
SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL NEED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN.
NOW ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH
2.5 INCHES AT 12Z ON TUESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE METRO. THIS WOULD
BE A MAX PW RECORD IF IT OCCURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS CATCHING ON AND HAS BEEN
MOVING ITS MAX RAINFALL AREA NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IT
NOW HAS A 3 TO 5 INCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW
FORECAST. THE AREAS DEPICTED ARE AT THE NOSE OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT 500 MB...THERE IS A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST
FOLLOWING EXCESSIVE HEAT HAVE LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WHICH
IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN THE CIPS ANALOGS.
WE WILL FINALLY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL SITES THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK CDFNT
LINGERING IN NW MN WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF S-CENTRAL MN
INTO WRN WI THRU TMRW AFTN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...WITH SOME MIDLVL
CU MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME. PRECIP ECHOES ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THRU TMRW WITH
FORCING LACKING TO PRODUCE PRECIP. SW WINDS THRU THIS EVE WILL
BECOME SLY TNGT THRU TMRW...AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER
DAYBREAK TMRW.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. S WIND 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR PSBL WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA. S WIND 5-15 KT BCMG W.
WED...VFR. N WIND 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS ADVANCED
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS NOW IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT DIMINISHES AND
INSTABILITY WANES. UP UNTIL THE LAST SET OF RUNS...THE CAMS
INCLUDING HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-FIRE
LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH
INSTABILITY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT. THUS...KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT
REMOVED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90 TO 95 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 80 DEG DP/S. APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY ARE FROM 100 TO 105 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
WEST TO THE SD BORDER AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME AREAS OF
105 TO 110 ARE NOTED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE MN CWA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE INDICES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN BUT COLLABORATION ISSUES AND THE DURATION OF THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT (ONLY ONE DAY) PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. HOWEVER...AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD WHERE RULES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. AS IT
STANDS...THE METRO AREA MEETS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SLOWING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD...THEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
LIKELY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE DEW POINT NEAR 75. IN FACT...A
YEAR AGO AND A DAY...7/18/13...MSP HAD A HIGH OF 94 WITH A LOW OF
80 WITH HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN EFFECT. THIS ALSO RAISES A RED
FLAG ABOUT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS THAT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN ON TUESDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL NEED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON MONDAY
WITH AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN.
NOW ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH
2.5 INCHES AT 12Z ON TUESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE METRO. THIS WOULD
BE A MAX PW RECORD IF IT OCCURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS CATCHING ON AND HAS BEEN
MOVING ITS MAX RAINFALL AREA NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IT
NOW HAS A 3 TO 5 INCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW
FORECAST. THE AREAS DEPICTED ARE AT THE NOSE OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT 500 MB...THERE IS A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST
FOLLOWING EXCESSIVE HEAT HAVE LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WHICH
IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN THE CIPS ANALOGS.
WE WILL FINALLY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY DUE TO
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY...SO CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL
TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MON...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
KT BECOMING WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS ADVANCED
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS NOW IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT DIMINISHES AND
INSTABILITY WANES. UP UNTIL THE LAST SET OF RUNS...THE CAMS
INCLUDING HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-FIRE
LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH
INSTABILITY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT. THUS...KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT
REMOVED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90 TO 95 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 80 DEG DP/S. APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY ARE FROM 100 TO 105 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
WEST TO THE SD BORDER AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME AREAS OF
105 TO 110 ARE NOTED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE MN CWA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE INDICES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN BUT COLLABORATION ISSUES AND THE DURATION OF THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT (ONLY ONE DAY) PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. HOWEVER...AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD WHERE RULES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. AS IT
STANDS...THE METRO AREA MEETS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SLOWING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD...THEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
LIKELY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE DEW POINT NEAR 75. IN FACT...A
YEAR AGO AND A DAY...7/18/13...MSP HAD A HIGH OF 94 WITH A LOW OF
80 WITH HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN EFFECT. THIS ALSO RAISES A RED
FLAG ABOUT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS THAT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN ON TUESDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL NEED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON MONDAY
WITH AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN.
NOW ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH
2.5 INCHES AT 12Z ON TUESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE METRO. THIS WOULD
BE A MAX PW RECORD IF IT OCCURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS CATCHING ON AND HAS BEEN
MOVING ITS MAX RAINFALL AREA NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IT
NOW HAS A 3 TO 5 INCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW
FORECAST. THE AREAS DEPICTED ARE AT THE NOSE OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT 500 MB...THERE IS A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST
FOLLOWING EXCESSIVE HEAT HAVE LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WHICH
IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN THE CIPS ANALOGS.
WE WILL FINALLY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MN AND ITS
EVOLUTION. MODELS ARE INSISTING THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REGENERATING TOWARD DAWN ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. NOT ENTIRELY BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO YET AND LEFT ALL TAF
SITES DRY FOR NOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A POP UP STORM OR
TWO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY MEAGER AND
FORCING IS WEAK. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS A ROGUE STORM HAPPENS TO POP UP
OVERHEAD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MON...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
KT BECOMING WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST
ACFROSS NW WI. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
BROKEN IN NATURE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW LINE BECOMING MORE DEFINED
AROUND 12Z NEAR DLH AND MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS 13-14Z AND NW
WI 14Z-18Z. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED TO TAKE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WORDING AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE ND
TO SOUTH CENTRAL ND HAS FORMED IN THE LAST HOUR AND MOVING EAST.
THEY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY BUT MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
CONCERNING TIMING...BUT NOT IN COVERAGE. I LEANED ON A MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER NW
WISCONSIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS...WILL
BRING INCREASING WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION SUNDAY.
HAVE KEPT SMALL BROADBRUSH POPS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
HIGH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE CAP AND LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
THE BORDERLAND/BWCAW REGION.
FOCUS TURNS TO STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT H85 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 20 C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY...LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING BACK
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A VORT
MAX...WITH DEEPENING H85 LOW...ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TIME FRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR INL TO PKD AT
05Z. THIS LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE BRD/INL AIRPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED
06Z-09Z...HIB 09Z-11Z...DLH 12Z-14Z...AND HYR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS MAY OCCUR AT THE AFFECTED
SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE
HIB/DLH/HYR AIRPORTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 60 81 65 84 / 20 20 40 10
INL 62 85 67 87 / 10 30 50 30
BRD 64 85 69 89 / 10 20 30 10
HYR 64 83 67 87 / 50 10 30 10
ASX 62 85 66 86 / 40 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
830 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE... RADAR IS INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND MAY
STALL OVER THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL SLOPE IS CAUSING THE RAIN. PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS
MAY MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. THESE ARE COVERED
NICELY BY THE CURRENT 20 PERCENT ISOLATED COVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE MESO
FIELDS FOR OVERNIGHT. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MAY BRING A VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. NOT ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS: WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WIND ON MONDAY WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
916 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED A FEW GRIDS TO UPDATE
WINDS...SKY...AND POP FOR TODAY. REMOVED MENTION OF TRW FOR
NORTHEAST CORNER AS NOT A SINGLE MODEL SUPPORTS IT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE DRY AND A BIT BREEZY TODAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. HRRR SHOWS A SMIDGEN OF CAPE WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT IT IS PRETTY THIN AND CAP WILL PROBABLY HOLD IN ANY
CASE AS DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK WITH A VAGUELY
DEFINED SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SMOKE HAZE
FROM DISTANT FIRES CONTINUES AND MAY ACTUALLY BE HOLDING THE
TEMPERATURES BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA DIG A TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND BUILD A RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...WITH A LEE
TROF DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT EAST
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT
WILL GET WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO
THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS TO LAKE WIND CRITERIA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. LEE TROF AGAIN
FORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WITH RISING DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. WITH ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF ENCOUNTERING
THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN EASTERN MONTANA...COULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAKER BROAD RIDGE RUNS UP
THROUGH IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
TROUGHS EXTEND THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA... AND OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST UP NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
TRAVEL OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED WITHIN THIS RIDGE BUT CHANCE FOR IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AS
SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE
IT OCCURS. MEANWHILE... THE CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL STEP ON
SHORE.
WEDNESDAY... RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S
TO 100S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN OF
THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LIKELY BUT QPF TOTALS ARE VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN UNTIL THIS EVENT SHOWS UP CLOSER TO NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY TRANSVERSE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN PULL DOWN SOME CANADIAN AIR BEHIND IT
WHICH WILL AGAIN SPIN UP MORE MILD AIR AND NORTHWEST TO ZONAL
FLOW. CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. SMOKE PLUMES ORIGINATING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND MAY
RESULT IN PROVIDING A HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT
TIMES...HOWEVER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 10 TO 20 KTS. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND COLD FRONTS WILL BE WEAK PRESENTING MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE IDAHO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONVECTION...SKIES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
ENTIRE AREA STILL CAPPED.
FOR TONIGHT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS YET THIS AFTERNOON COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY TO SLIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. THE CONCERN WITH HOW LONG
ANY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LACK IN
FORCING AS THERE ISN/T A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH FOR ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FORCING. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA SO THINKING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE NAM AND THE RAP BOTH INDICATE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT NEITHER PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND AFTER BEING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHOWS SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z.
BIAS WOULD BE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR LATE EVENING AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER MODELS DID POORLY WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO...WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST BRINGING WARMER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 700MB...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASE TO 15-17C BY 00Z MONDAY WHEREAS RAOB DATA
FROM THIS MORNING /19.12Z/ SHOWED TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AT 10-12C.
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SO
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM EFFICIENTLY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GIVES HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN WITH REACHING THESE LEVELS OF
HEAT WILL BE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST AREAS WHICH WON/T HELP THE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THOSE LEVELS. BUT...SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
FULL MIXING WOULD BRING HIGHS TO 105 IN PLACES. THINK THIS IS TOO
HIGH AND WHEN LOOKING AT SREF PLUMES THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. KEPT THE FORECAST VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS SO KEPT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KIML TO KLBF TO KANW LINE. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BRING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 15 PERCENT. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO VALUES BEING RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD OF 100 DEGREES
ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REACHING THESE VALUES.
AS MENTIONED SOME PLACES MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP NEAR 15
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
DESPITE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...DON/T ANTICIPATE FIRE DANGER
GETTING TO A CRITICAL LEVEL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DRYLINE SURGE SUNDAY CONTINUES
MONDAY. A SLIGHT RETREAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS SD MONDAY SHOULD MOVE IT BACK EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CA THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY SETTING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE AFTN OR AT NIGHT
AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED AND OPERATE ABOVE 700 MB.
HEAT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100
AND HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY FOR HIGHS
90 TO 95. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED AND DRY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BACKS IN AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETREATS WEST. THIS SHOULD SET UP A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THIS ANCHORS THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRAWS COOLER AIR
WEST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. IN TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THE FCST AREA ALONG ABOUT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTL
CANADA.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT THE SIGNAL THE
MODELS GIVE IS DRY OWING TO WARM AIR ALOFT EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE KVTN TERMINAL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AND DON/T HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL GO. THEREFORE HAVE NO
MENTION OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
SUNDAY MORNING AND APPROACH BOTH KVTN AND KLBF SITES BY 18Z. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. PRIOR TO
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SINCE 06Z AND
WAS NEAR ALBION AT 11Z. MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THESE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS EARLY ON. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR
CIGS AT KOFK THIS MORNING...AND HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS FL040 AT
KLNK AND KOFK THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE DEBRIS FROM THE STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15KT SUSTAINED RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. TONIGHT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
ESPECIALLY AT KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 20/06Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO GREAT
LAKES REGION. PATCHES OF STRATO CUMULUS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
FLO040. THE THREAT OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OR MOVING ACROSS TAF
SITES SATURDAY MORNING SEEMED PRETTY LOW AND THUS NO MENTION WAS
MADE IN 06Z FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAVOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z WITH A FEW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z OVER THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY IN THE ABQ AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KABQ MOVING NORTH...THUS THINKING THAT
THE CHANCES ARE GREATER AT KAEG THAN AT KABQ. HOWEVER WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING TOWARD KABQ FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES INTERSECT. WILL
MONITOR FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WITH PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THEREAFTER...
WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AROUND KLVS.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE THAN RECENT WEEKS. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
IN QUITE A WHILE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SHIFT WEST AND ALLOW SEVERAL MOIST BACK DOOR FRONTS TO
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL TAPER OFF THE HEAT AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENING IS VERY LOW BUT WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL IMPACT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES THIS EVENING. THE
20Z SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CRATERING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
DESPITE ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BEST MOISTURE IS
POOLING AROUND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER THE SE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z GFS ARE PICKING UP ON A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING FROM THE DIVIDE TO NEAR THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. THE 06Z
WRF AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS EARLIER BUT BACKED OFF ON IT FOR
THE 12Z RUN. QPF VALUES COULD BE HIGH BENEATH A SLOW MOVING SOUTH
TO NORTH COMPLEX BUT PLACEMENT AND DURATION IS VERY QUESTIONABLE.
PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT. THE
OTHER WRINKLE IS THE HRRR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH AFTER 06Z UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS OCCUR AS THE LATEST IR SHOWS SOME VIGOROUS
CONVECTION ERUPTING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF SHOW WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE CURRENT
594DM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM SHIFTING NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND BUILDING TO 599DM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS INTRODUCES
ANOTHER TOSS UP AS HEIGHTS RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT AN AXIS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES WEST FROM WEST/CENTRAL TX. SEVERAL DAYS AGO
MODELS WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR MORE COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. MADE ONLY SUBTLE POP
CHANGES TO INCREASE VALUES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AT
LEAST HOT TEMPS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TREND TOWARD THE WEST WHILE YET
ANOTHER VERY STRONG SUMMER UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TRANSITION PERIOD FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE HIGH WARPS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. A STRONG BACK
DOOR FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER NM. THIS IS MOST CERTAINLY
NOT ANYWHERE NEAR THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
OVER THE CONUS DURING LATE JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE TODAYS SHOWER AND STORM CROP HAS BEEN A SLOW STARTER...IT MAY
END UP TO BE NEARLY AS GOOD OR BETTER COVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTN OR EVE. THE BULK
OF THE BURN SCAR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RISK OF HEAVY
RUNOFF OR WORSE THROUGH THE EVE. THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VARY A FAIR DEGREE
FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...PROBABLY SHIFTING A
LITTLE WAYS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH MON AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TUE AND WED. IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THEREAFTER...AS
TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE...BUT LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO AGREE PRETTY WELL THAT A MODERATE TO STRONG BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PUSH INTO AND ACROSS AT LEAST
EAST AND CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER WEST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MODERATE TO ROBUST INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR AND BEHIND ITS PASSAGE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND MON.
UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID TO LATE JULY CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION.
NO CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AT
LEAST...COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT MINIMUM RHS HAVE REACHED
MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS A FEW SITES ACROSS NORTH NM AND
EVEN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT BETWEEN
MON AND WED...BUT SUBSIDE SOME AGAIN BY LATE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND
HAINES INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP SOME MON AND PERHAPS
TUE...THEN DROP SOME WED AND THU BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP NEAR END OF
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL VARY FROM FAIR TO VERY
GOOD...DEPENDING IN LARGE PART ON WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ON A PARTICULAR DAY.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN
QUITE A WHILE. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE INTRODUCED BY GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS VERIFY THE FOCUS OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVITY INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SERVE AS A SIGN OF THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 20Z LAPS DATA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS THERE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ABQ METRO.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER WAVE OVER THE BAJA WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO
TOWARD SW NEW MEXICO. GFS/NAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FOCUSES THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. THE H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO 596DM BY MONDAY SO COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
VERY HOT TEMPS ARE THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE H5
HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 600DM AND 700MB TEMPS APPROACH +21C. MANY AREAS
IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WILL AVERAGE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...ESPECIALLY
FROM ABQ SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DESPITE FEWER STORMS STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHERE EVER A
STORM FIRES UP.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN ON WHERE THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SHOWS
THE HIGH STAYING MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WOBBLES TO THE WEST. THIS STILL ALLOWS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FORMER EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS S CA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CIRCUMAMBULATE AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE MOIST NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP UNDER THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER NM WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY THE 500 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...CAUSING A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND NW AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH TRAVELS NORTHWARD OVER S CO ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE S AND SE.
AN UPPER LOW PASSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NW US BORDER WITH
CANADA IS FORECAST TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE FORM
OF A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. READINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES BEGINNING TUESDAY
IN THE EAST...BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. HAINES INDICES OF 5
SHOULD BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR VALUES OF 6 FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT STORMS ANYWHERE TODAY...BUT KFMN AND
POINTS E OF KROW APPEAR TO HAVE THE SMALLEST CHANCES. WITH THE MID
LEVEL HIGH ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER KTCS CELLS SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY
E TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MOVING N OVER THE SW MTS AND SE MOVING
STORMS E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NE AREAS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY MAINLY E OF A
LINE FROM KROW TO KTCC. MVFR LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KROW.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 96 66 97 / 5 10 10 5
DULCE........................... 51 90 55 91 / 10 20 20 10
CUBA............................ 58 89 58 90 / 10 30 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 57 91 58 92 / 10 20 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 54 83 55 84 / 20 30 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 54 90 55 91 / 10 20 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 56 84 57 85 / 20 30 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 61 92 61 93 / 10 20 10 10
CHAMA........................... 49 83 50 85 / 20 30 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 87 63 87 / 20 30 20 20
PECOS........................... 58 84 61 86 / 20 40 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 56 83 / 20 30 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 49 75 51 76 / 20 40 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 79 44 80 / 20 40 20 40
TAOS............................ 54 87 56 88 / 20 30 20 20
MORA............................ 55 83 56 84 / 20 50 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 61 92 63 92 / 10 30 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 62 87 63 87 / 20 40 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 94 62 93 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 94 69 94 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 96 70 96 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 97 66 97 / 10 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 98 68 98 / 20 20 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 98 65 97 / 10 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 98 69 98 / 20 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 71 100 / 10 20 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 91 64 92 / 20 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 63 93 64 94 / 20 30 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 90 59 90 / 20 30 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 89 62 89 / 20 50 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 91 65 92 / 20 40 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 93 70 92 / 10 40 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 61 87 62 87 / 20 60 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 86 63 87 / 30 40 20 40
RATON........................... 60 89 62 91 / 30 40 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 61 91 63 93 / 30 40 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 87 59 89 / 30 50 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 64 92 65 96 / 30 20 20 30
ROY............................. 62 89 65 91 / 40 40 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 68 97 70 98 / 40 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 95 68 96 / 40 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 98 71 99 / 50 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 64 93 65 94 / 50 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 66 97 68 98 / 50 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 70 97 / 40 30 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 69 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 66 92 69 92 / 20 30 20 30
ELK............................. 64 86 66 86 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWLY THIS EVENING DUE TO
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH WRN NY. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND BUMPED OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP BY SEVERAL DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER CNTRL NY MAINLY WEST OF I81 WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.
730 PM UPDATE...H7 SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WRN NY ATTM WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK INTO THE
WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WRN
CWA DUE TO THIS WAVE AND TWEAK TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
PREVIOUS DISC...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST PLACES.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET
MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED
SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH SCT-BKN MID CLDS PREVAILING THIS EVNG. LATER TNGT...INCRSNG
LOW LVL MSTR WIL MOV INTO CNTRL NY ON SW FLOW. POTNL FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBY`S IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY AT ELM/ITH/BGM.
INDICATIONS THAT THIS MSTR COULD GET INTO RME BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER
THERE. MVFR CIGS/VSBY`S AT AFOREMENTIONED SITES XPCTD TO RISE BY
MID MRNG WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DVLPNG TMRW...WILL LET LATER UPDATES
ADD THIS RISK IF WARRANTED. LIGHT WINDS TNGT...SWLY 5-10 KTS ON
MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...H7 SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WRN NY ATTM WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK INTO THE
WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WRN
CWA DUE TO THIS WAVE AND TWEAK TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
PREVIOUS DISC...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST PLACES.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET
MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED
SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH SCT-BKN MID CLDS PREVAILING THIS EVNG. LATER TNGT...INCRSNG
LOW LVL MSTR WIL MOV INTO CNTRL NY ON SW FLOW. POTNL FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBY`S IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY AT ELM/ITH/BGM.
INDICATIONS THAT THIS MSTR COULD GET INTO RME BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER
THERE. MVFR CIGS/VSBY`S AT AFOREMENTIONED SITES XPCTD TO RISE BY
MID MRNG WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DVLPNG TMRW...WILL LET LATER UPDATES
ADD THIS RISK IF WARRANTED. LIGHT WINDS TNGT...SWLY 5-10 KTS ON
MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...H7 SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WRN NY ATTM WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK INTO THE
WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WRN
CWA DUE TO THIS WAVE AND TWEAK TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
PREVIOUS DISC...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST PLACES.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET
MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED
SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL
MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING
TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW
REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK
ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL
GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL
WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL
MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO
VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG
CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A
BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A
5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
814 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION OVER-WITH...
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE DURING THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
...WILL NOT COMPLETELY TURN OFF THE SPICKET AS OF YET. MODELS
INDICATE A MID- LEVEL S/W TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF AFFECTING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S...IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO INTERACT WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS OVERNIGHT
...RESULTING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE PREDAWN MONDAY
HOURS. HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE PWS INCREASING TO
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL EITHER INDICATE POPS IN THE GOOD TO HIGH
CHANCE...OR POSSIBLY THE LIKELY CATEGORY GIVEN WHAT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WORKS OUT TO BE. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. GIVEN ONSHORE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PUSHING ACROSS 80 DEGREE
SSTS AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS. ITS SEEMS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FOR
TONIGHTS TEMPS ACROSS THE FA TO DROP INTO THE 60S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH TONIGHTS MINS HIGHER THAN THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BUT SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNED
WEST OF THE AREA ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE
TODAY...AND KEEP A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN...HOWEVER...THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE DRY. A
WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS THROUGH EVE BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES
THIS TO FIZZLE OUT. THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE AS IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING INTO THE
ARKLATEX WILL SHARPEN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN...CREATING AN
OPEN GOM AND HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS MOIST COLUMN WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST WITHIN A
RESIDUAL LAYER ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE PBL. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THIS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THIS IS ECHOED WELL
BY HIGH RES HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN INITIALIZING PRETTY WELL TODAY.
COOLING TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...INCREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE...AND CONTINUED WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. HAVE
FORECAST LOWS ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED AT
THE BEACHES...AND LOWS AROUND 70 FAR WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...IT COULD BE A WET DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND AN OLD FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. ADDITIONALLY...AND A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
MAXES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AROUND 70.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE TUESDAY BUT
THE OLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MAX BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE WRF EVEN BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MAXIMUM SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MINS AGAIN
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE SETUP TO THE WEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
ON FRIDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE CLASSICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW
MIDDLE 90S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS A LULL IN PCPN ACROSS OUR
CWA...BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AS
DAYBREAK APPROACHES...AND IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KFLO WHERE
THE EARLIEST PCPN IS FORECAST. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHES OF MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IFR IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB DURING
THE EARLY MORNING...AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS BY MONDAY
AFTN. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS
A STALLED FRONT LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS MAY BOUNCE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR LEVELS IN SHRA IN ADDITION TO REDUCED VSBYS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...RIDGING TO EXTEND SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COASTAL TROF WILL EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE ATL WATERS...SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. OVERALL...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO
YIELD ESE TO SE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT RELAXED...YIELDING AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR WIND SPEEDS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY AN 8 TO 9 SECOND
PERIOD ESE GROUND SWELL...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT FROM LOW PERIOD
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. OVERALL...AROUND 3 FT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
LOOKS ON TARGET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...RATHER NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN HAS
KEPT WINDS LIGHT THUS FAR TODAY...WITH 10 KTS OR LESS SE WINDS
OBSERVED AT THE LOCAL BUOYS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND HAS ALLOWED A 9 SEC
SE SWELL TO BECOME PREDOMINANT IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SO ALTHOUGH
A WEAK S/SE WIND CHOP EXISTS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE 2-3 FT WITH AN
8 SEC PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY
BECOME SW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT AROUND 15
KNOTS BUTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE
PERIOD OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AND WITH INCREASE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS
THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES...THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH.
LOW CRUD AMID -RA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER S/W TROF WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER C-E KY AS OF
15Z WHICH THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. WILL ROLL WITH
NEAR ACE POPS FROM C TO E WV ZONES AND SW VA INTO AFTN
HRS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING PRECIP AXIS OFF TO THE E AND NE AS ENERGY
PIVOTS THRU. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF OH RIVER BUT
THEY WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS. UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY BASED
ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE BUT STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX
DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THIS PRECIP NOW MAKING IT INTO SW CWA...AND SHOULD SEE
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. ANOTHER
VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH TODAY...WITH RENEWED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH COULD
GET SOME BREAKS ACROSS SE OHIO...AND HAVE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS
THERE. THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...WITH NAM ADVERTISING UP TO AROUND
500J/KG CAPE. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW IN ACTUALLY GETTING ANYTHING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
WINDING DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID 60S IN
THE TRI-STATE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL UNDER UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME 500 MB VORT IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT BAY.
TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL RANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR MINOR CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES
AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING
MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN
FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A
DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIG/VIS DEPENDING ON THE SITE.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING...AS VORT
MAX CURRENTLY DRIVING PRECIP IN TN MOVES INTO AREA. WITH SE WIND
EXPECT BKW TO GET LOCKED INTO LOW STRATUS WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IF WE WERE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WOULD EXPECT IT ALONG OR WEST OF OHIO RIVER WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OCCUR. DESPITE SOME FLOW...AND CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...THINK WET GROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE 2-4 MILE VIS IN
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RA MAY VARY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS
THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES...THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH.
LOW CRUD AMID -RA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER S/W TROF WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER C-E KY AS OF
15Z WHICH THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. WILL ROLL WITH
NEAR ACE POPS FROM C TO E WV ZONES AND SW VA INTO AFTN
HRS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING PRECIP AXIS OFF TO THE E AND NE AS ENERGY
PIVOTS THRU. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF OH RIVER BUT
THEY WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS. UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY BASED
ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE BUT STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX
DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THIS PRECIP NOW MAKING IT INTO SW CWA...AND SHOULD SEE
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. ANOTHER
VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH TODAY...WITH RENEWED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH COULD
GET SOME BREAKS ACROSS SE OHIO...AND HAVE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS
THERE. THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...WITH NAM ADVERTISING UP TO AROUND
500J/KG CAPE. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW IN ACTUALLY GETTING ANYTHING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
WINDING DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID 60S IN
THE TRI-STATE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROF IN THE EAST GETS NUDGED TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS HEIGHTS TRY TO RISE IN THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A WEAKENING STEERING AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND.
THE ONLY CONSTANT APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK SE FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH EL AROUND 35 THSD IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. SO
REINTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE WEST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
CONVECTION FORMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY LEFT THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM OR SHOWER COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE DAY.
HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...WITH SOME 90 DEG MAXIMUMS REAPPEARING IN THE WEST.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...BUT WITH
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
THICK FOG YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE WAS INCREASING THAT THE UPPER TROF MENTIONED IN TEXT
BELOW...WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
USED HPC/WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
BREAK IN PCPN ACTIVITY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY...WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE
RUNS LOW TO TARGET THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
WENT WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIG/VIS DEPENDING ON THE SITE.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING...AS VORT
MAX CURRENTLY DRIVING PRECIP IN TN MOVES INTO AREA. WITH SE WIND
EXPECT BKW TO GET LOCKED INTO LOW STRATUS WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IF WE WERE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WOULD EXPECT IT ALONG OR WEST OF OHIO RIVER WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OCCUR. DESPITE SOME FLOW...AND CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...THINK WET GROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE 2-4 MILE VIS IN
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RA MAY VARY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL THROUGH 14Z WILL BE IN THE FORM OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES ALONG AND TO THE NE OF ROUTE 322 FROM HARRISBURG TO
STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD AMOUNT TO ANOTHER SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A DISTINCT...SPLIT PERSONALITY WITH RESPECT TO THE CHC OF
RAIN. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A KMDT TO KIPT LINE. IN BETWEEN...
SPRINKLES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DAMPEN THE GROUND AT TIMES.
SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FURTHEST NE PUSH OF
THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
AFTERWARD...SHOWERS APPEAR THAT THEY/LL BECOME LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES IN WESTERN PENN...WHERE THE
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND...SSERLY NEAR SFC FLOW...HIGHER
PWAT AIR...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FOUND.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
PERSISTENT LLVL RIDGING/DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE NE WILL KEEP
THAT PORTION OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH JUST SOME NON-
MEASURABLE SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID CLOUD DECK FROM TIME
TO TIME. ACROSS OUR FAR ERN ZONES...SOME GLIMPSES OF DIM SUNSHINE
MAY EVEN FILTER THROUGH THE OTHERWISE OVC...MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
DECK.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF KBFD WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MOST FREQUENT AND
LAST THE LONGEST TODAY. THE LAURELS WILL SE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA...AND WEAK
LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR AND COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TREND LOWER WITH POPS FOR LIGHT /0.05 PER
06 HR/ QPF ON SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LLVL
MOISTURE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
HOWEVER...KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS AND SURROUNDING WFOS
TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA DOTTED AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THANKS TO
LOW-MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX.
LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 55-60F...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND
NEAR 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH OF U.S. BORDER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. DID
KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WRN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE TODAY...WHILE ERN TAFS STAY MAINLY DRY
UNDER AN OVC MID CLOUD DECK. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PCPN REASONABLY WELL...WITH THE STEADIEST -RA FCST TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DESPITE
THE PERSISTENT -RA..ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY OUT OF THE
IFR CAT...BASICALLY MVFR OR BETTER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
513 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL THROUGH 14Z WILL BE IN THE FORM OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES ALONG AND TO THE NE OF ROUTE 322 FROM HARRISBURG TO
STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD AMOUNT TO ANOTHER SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A DISTINCT...SPLIT PERSONALITY WITH RESPECT TO THE CHC OF
RAIN. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A KMDT TO KIPT LINE. IN BETWEEN...
SPRINKLES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DAMPEN THE GROUND AT TIMES.
SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FURTHEST NE PUSH OF
THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
AFTERWARD...SHOWERS APPEAR THAT THEY/LL BECOME LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES IN WESTERN PENN...WHERE THE
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND...SSERLY NEAR SFC FLOW...HIGHER
PWAT AIR...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FOUND.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
PERSISTENT LLVL RIDGING/DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE NE WILL KEEP
THAT PORTION OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH JUST SOME NON-
MEASURABLE SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID CLOUD DECK FROM TIME
TO TIME. ACROSS OUR FAR ERN ZONES...SOME GLIMPSES OF DIM SUNSHINE
MAY EVEN FILTER THROUGH THE OTHERWISE OVC...MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
DECK.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF KBFD WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MOST FREQUENT AND
LAST THE LONGEST TODAY. THE LAURELS WILL SE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA...AND WEAK
LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR AND COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TREND LOWER WITH POPS FOR LIGHT /0.05 PER
06 HR/ QPF ON SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LLVL
MOISTURE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
HOWEVER...KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS AND SURROUNDING WFOS
TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA DOTTED AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THANKS TO
LOW-MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX.
LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 55-60F...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND
NEAR 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH OF U.S. BORDER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. DID
KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VLYS ATTM WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS BROAD
AND WEAK TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SEMI-ORGANIZED AND RATHER CONTINUOUS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TODAY...WHILE ERN TAFS
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID CLOUD DECK. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PCPN REASONABLY WELL...FCST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS
ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT -SHRA
ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY OUT OF THE IFR CAT...OR AOA
MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NWRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY. SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z WILL BARELY MEASURE ALONG AND TO THE
NE OF ROUTE 322 BETWEEN HARRISBURG AND STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD
AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED BY MDL DATA TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PA
ON SATURDAY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
Q-VEC CONVERGENCE /ALONG WITH BLENDED HRRR AND RAP13 QPF/...IS
PROGGED BTWN 12Z- 18Z OVR THE W MTNS.
18Z GEFS 850 MFLUX ALSO SHOWING THE HIGHEST VALUES LIFTING ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES BTWN 12Z-18Z. AFTER 18Z...LL JET AND BEST FORCING
ARE PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
DURING THE AFTN.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
A FEW SHRA MAY EXTEND INTO THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA AND THUS HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF PLACED OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH THE EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/ WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAXES TO
RANGE FROM ARND 70F OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO NR 80F OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH
OF U.S. BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER
OHIO VALLEY. DID KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VLYS ATTM WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS BROAD
AND WEAK TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SEMI-ORGANIZED AND RATHER CONTINUOUS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TODAY...WHILE ERN TAFS
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID CLOUD DECK. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PCPN REASONABLY WELL...FCST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS
ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT -SHRA
ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY OUT OF THE IFR CAT...OR AOA
MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
246 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NWRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY. SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z WILL BARELY MEASURE ALONG AND TO THE
NE OF ROUTE 322 BETWEEN HARRISBURG AND STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD
AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED BY MDL DATA TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PA
ON SATURDAY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
Q-VEC CONVERGENCE /ALONG WITH BLENDED HRRR AND RAP13 QPF/...IS
PROGGED BTWN 12Z- 18Z OVR THE W MTNS.
18Z GEFS 850 MFLUX ALSO SHOWING THE HIGHEST VALUES LIFTING ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES BTWN 12Z-18Z. AFTER 18Z...LL JET AND BEST FORCING
ARE PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
DURING THE AFTN.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
A FEW SHRA MAY EXTEND INTO THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA AND THUS HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF PLACED OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH THE EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/ WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAXES TO
RANGE FROM ARND 70F OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO NR 80F OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH
OF U.S. BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER
OHIO VALLEY. DID KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR TO THE SW.
03Z TAFS SIMILAR TO 00Z SET.
WE ARE NOW IN WHAT IS NORMALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE
SUMMER. PATTERN IS MORE LIKE FALL AT TIMES. ANYWAY...STILL
LOOKS LIKE 00Z NGM SUPPORTS HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.
A WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN
AN UPPER LVL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE OFF THE COAST. THUS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER NOW AND THEN.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AT JST...AND LATE
TONIGHT AT BFD. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT UNV AND AOO ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY VCSH AT THESE SITES.
LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF IPT...MDT...AND LNS.
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SAT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY.
LESS CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO WED. MORE CHANCE
OF FOG AND HZ BY THEN...AS DEWPOINTS COME UP SOME.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRIMARY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE I77 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER VORT
FORCING. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE
DECREASING POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS MOST
RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING CAMS INDICATE CONTINUED
LULL OF COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS NEAR THE I20
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN ANY PERSISTENT
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED QPF/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN THIS
EVENING AND THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX. THE HRRR HAS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA GOING DRY BY 23Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE OP
MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUED A QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST SE/LY
FLOW. DO BELIEVE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS
IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR COMP LOOP...HOWEVER VAD WINDS STILL
SHOW A MOIST ATL FETCH THRU 5 KFT. SO...WILL COUNT ON SCT/ISOL SHRA
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAKENING WEDGE AND TERRAIN LIFT.
THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN TOMORROW WRT COVERAGE AND CHARACTER OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHIFTED WEDGE BNDRY AND DIFF HEATING...WHILE THE
CAM/S ARE INDICATING MTN UPSLOPE -SHRA WITH PERHAPS ISOL THUNDER
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF A NE/WARD
DISPLACED WEDGE MAKES SENSE WITH THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING EAST.
HOWEVER...ALSO THINK CLOUD COVER IN LLVL MOIST ATL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...ESP EARLY ON AND KEEP MOST LOCALES TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN ISOL THUNDER...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ERN WEDGE BNDRY. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SBCAPE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS. THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO MAKE THE MAX TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS WELL. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE ENUF THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON TO
EXPECT A MODEST WARM UP HOWEVER...BUT WILL SIDE THE LOWER END
GUIDANCE LEAVING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 PM EDT SAT...A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MIGRATING
TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME NON DIURNAL FORCING IN THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO
REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN AND ATOP
THE LINGERING CAD LAYER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RATHER SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL NOSE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER TO
PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...CONTINUED SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL
RANGES ON TEMPS...AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OF
12Z WED...BIG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH
A LESS FOCUSED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. LATER IN THE DAY WED THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEATS UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2000 UP
TO 2500 NEAR THE TN BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AROUND 2000
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 IN THE EARLY EVENING THURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUPPORT OF PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT FAR SOUTH IS GREATEST ON THE GFS AS IT HAS THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE GA / FL BORDER FRI PM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS OUT THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GA AND CENTRAL SC WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AUGUSTA FRI
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MTNS WILL BE DRY OR NEAR
DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED...NEAR CLIMO
NORMALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUR...THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS REMAIN AT THE AIRFIELD EVEN WITH PERIODS OF SHRA
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 060 WITH RATHER HIGH
SFC TDD/S. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH DETERIORATION WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. WEDGE SHARPNESS LOOSENS UP THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SO WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NE/LY TO S/LY
BY DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING MUCH
OF A FG THREAT...HOWEVER MVFR STCU COULD DEVELOP ARND 12Z.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIP SHIELD IS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST AS DRY AIR ALOFT
WORKS IN. EXPECT SHRA THRU 18Z OR SO MOST SITES WITH TEMPO OR VCSH
AFTER THAT THROUGH 22Z/00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE HAD IN CIGS AS
PRECIP WANES...BUT VSBYS SHOULD HOLD ON AT LEAST IN THE MVFR RANGE.
A DROP IN CIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. KAVL AND KAND WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CONDS WITH THE OTHER SITES DROPPING TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF KAVL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE 18Z.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 98%
KGSP HIGH 80% MED 69% HIGH 93% HIGH 88%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 83% MED 77% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 89% LOW 37% HIGH 88%
KGMU HIGH 81% MED 79% HIGH 96% HIGH 88%
KAND MED 74% HIGH 94% HIGH 81% LOW 51%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN THIS
EVENING AND THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX. THE HRRR HAS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA GOING DRY BY 23Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE OP MODELS
DEPICT A CONTINUED A QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST SE/LY FLOW. DO
BELIEVE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS IS
EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR COMP LOOP...HOWEVER VAD WINDS STILL
SHOW A MOIST ATL FETCH THRU 5 KFT. SO...WILL COUNT ON SCT/ISOL SHRA
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAKENING WEDGE AND TERRAIN LIFT.
THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN TOMORROW WRT COVERAGE AND CHARACTER OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVEC
AND A GOOD CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHIFTED WEDGE BNDRY AND DIFF HEATING...WHILE THE CAM/S ARE
INDICATING MTN UPSLOPE -SHRA WITH PERHAPS ISOL THUNDER DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF A NE/WARD DISPLACED WEDGE
MAKES SENSE WITH THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING EAST. HOWEVER...ALSO THINK
CLOUD COVER IN LLVL MOIST ATL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...ESP
EARLY ON AND KEEP MOST LOCALES TOO STABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN ISOL
THUNDER...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE ERN WEDGE
BNDRY. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SBCAPE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS. THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO MAKE THE MAX TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS WELL. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE ENUF THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON TO
EXPECT A MODEST WARM UP HOWEVER...BUT WILL SIDE THE LOWER END
GUIDANCE LEAVING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 PM EDT SAT...A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MIGRATING
TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME NON DIURNAL FORCING IN THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO
REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN AND ATOP
THE LINGERING CAD LAYER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RATHER SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL NOSE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER TO
PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...CONTINUED SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL
RANGES ON TEMPS...AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OF
12Z WED...BIG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH
A LESS FOCUSED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. LATER IN THE DAY WED THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEATS UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2000 UP
TO 2500 NEAR THE TN BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AROUND 2000
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 IN THE EARLY EVENING THURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUPPORT OF PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT FAR SOUTH IS GREATEST ON THE GFS AS IT HAS THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE GA / FL BORDER FRI PM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS OUT THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GA AND CENTRAL SC WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AUGUSTA FRI
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MTNS WILL BE DRY OR NEAR
DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED...NEAR CLIMO
NORMALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUR...THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS REMAIN AT THE AIRFIELD EVEN WITH PERIODS OF SHRA
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 060 WITH RATHER HIGH
SFC TDD/S. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH DETERIORATION WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. WEDGE SHARPNESS LOOSENS UP THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SO WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NE/LY TO S/LY
BY DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING MUCH
OF A FG THREAT...HOWEVER MVFR STCU COULD DEVELOP ARND 12Z.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIP SHIELD IS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST AS DRY AIR ALOFT
WORKS IN. EXPECT SHRA THRU 18Z OR SO MOST SITES WITH TEMPO OR VCSH
AFTER THAT THROUGH 22Z/00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE HAD IN CIGS AS
PRECIP WANES...BUT VSBYS SHOULD HOLD ON AT LEAST IN THE MVFR RANGE.
A DROP IN CIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. KAVL AND KAND WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CONDS WITH THE OTHER SITES DROPPING TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF KAVL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE 18Z.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 91%
KGSP MED 69% MED 79% HIGH 98% HIGH 90%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 85% MED 73% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 89% HIGH 100% LOW 44% MED 76%
KGMU MED 74% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KAND MED 78% HIGH 86% HIGH 94% MED 61%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
953 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A
RESIDUAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID WEEK
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.
MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND RAP EXPECTS THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH ROCKINGHAM
AND CASWELL COUNTIES. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
ON TRACK.
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...
JULY WEDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PLACE WITH THE WEAK PARENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND A SMALLER BUBBLE HIGH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS COMBO WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING HEATING TO A MINIMUM
AGAIN AND EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN FAR WESTERN SHRA COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES ON THE
PERIMETER OF THE WEDGE. HOWEVER LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A FAINT SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST
PENDING ANY ADDED HEATING THROUGH SUNSET. OTRW EXPECTING THE WEDGE
TO ENHANCE A BIT AGAIN OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK SE FLOW UNDER THE
LINGERING COOL POOL. UPPER SUPPORT LACKING EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER WAVE
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SW UNDER WHATS LEFT OF THE 5H
TROF CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS LATE. APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK LIFT AND
PERHAPS UPSLOPE TO KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS IN MAINLY
SOUTHERN TIER AFTER COVERAGE FADES WITH THE WEAK WAVE THIS
EVENING. FOG AND PATCHY -DZ ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WITH
LOWS AGAIN MAINLY 60S...BUT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS DEWPOINTS NUDGE UP.
RATHER CUTOFF MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE SE STATES ON MONDAY WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING BACK NORTH WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY PASSING
THROUGH N CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...RISING PWATS AND THETA-E RIDGING ALONG WITH A BETTER EAST/SE
TRAJECTORY UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD COMBO WITH A BIT
MORE HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE SHRA ESCPLY SOUTH INTO LATE MONDAY.
APPEARS BEST LOW LEVEL FOCUS SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEPT A SLITHER OF
LIKELY POPS OTRW MAINLY CHANCE COVERAGE FOR NOW. HOWEVER MAY ONLY SEE
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHRA NORTH HALF WITH MOST DEEPER CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EXTREME SOUTH AND WEST WHERE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS A BIT
MORE PENDING DEGREE OF ISOLATION. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER BEFORE MORE SHRA DEVELOP...SO AGAIN
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS SINCE APPEARS BEST WITH THE RESIDUAL
WEDGING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE AROUND A PERSISTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM ASSUMES A PSEUDO
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A
MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FORCE THIS FEATURE TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE GA/SC COAST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...PWS WILL RISE TO NEAR
2.0 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION.
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION
AREA WIDE...WITH NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW NC
AND FAR SW VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NW NC/FAR SW VA WHERE
MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS...BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF NW
NC/FAR SW VA COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEK...DYNAMICS/SHEAR
ARE WEAK...THUS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF A FRONT THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID
WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE
AS WELL. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS/PWS AND PERSISTENT
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION WILL TEMPER ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS...70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 90 IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRI...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS ALWAYS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING.
THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION OWING TO
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AT A MINIMUM...HOWEVER IT MAY NOT GET VERY
FAR...STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE CLOSER IT STALLS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THE MORE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LINGERING PSEUDO TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD
ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
A DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS MAY LINGER. MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY UPSTREAM NW FLOW DISTURBANCES.
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION
DAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A 4 TO 7 DEGREE
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED A
GFS/ECMWF MOS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN ROUGHLY KBLF-KTNB. OTHER HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NC
AND MOVING NORTH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN TIME...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME VCSH AROUND KDAN STARTING AT 03/11PM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THEIR POTENTIAL ARRIVAL ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...
IMPULSE PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TAPER
OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LEFTOVER SHRA OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER CONTINUED SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN THE
SFC-7H WILL CAUSE CIGS TO AGAIN LOWER...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR AT KLWB AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME PATCHY -DZ
AND FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA MAY TEND TO LIMIT LOWER CLOUD
FORMATION ACROSS THE SE AS WELL AS AROUND KBLF WHERE WILL SEE WEAK
DOWNSLOPING.
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO TURN MORE EASTERLY ON
MONDAY ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO ENHANCE A BIT MORE. THIS MAY KEEP AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AROUND ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON
BUT EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS MAINLY
KTNB-KUKF TO KDAN. MORE BREAKS ALONG WITH VFR EXPECTED A BIT
SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF MVFR/VFR AT KBCB/KROA TO KBLF LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF THE FADING SE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH EARLY FOG IN SPOTS GIVING WAY TO BRIEF
VFR...THEN PERIODIC MVFR IN CLOUDS/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OF MVFR/IFR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. IMPROVED AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...EXPECT POSSIBLY KDAN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL
INVESTIGATE ON MONDAY. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/JH
SHORT TERM...PM/RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...DS/JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER OFF TO LIGHT POPS IN
THE FAR EAST. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
RNKWRF-ARW WITH THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND HIRESW ARW
HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
LINGERING WEDGE FOR OUR AREA WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH VALUES FROM
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING CURRENTS
OVER THE CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...A DEFINITE AND PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO
TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY INLAND...AND WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...THE MODELS RETROGRADE THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
THE FLOW OVER OUR LITTLE PIECE OF REAL ESTATE...AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DEAD ALOFT...LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION OF AIR EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS TO MODIFY WITH TIME...THE JULY SUN DOING ITS THING
TO WARM US UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BECOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONLY...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP THREAT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE LESS
AMPLIFIED ECMWF...IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. FOLLOWING THE
GFS...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO
YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
THIS WEEK IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY. ANYTHING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...WEAK FORCING NOT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REACHING DAN/LYH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY SHOWERS/LT RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR
IN BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT
LIKELY VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFT 00Z. A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER OFF TO LIGHT POPS IN
THE FAR EAST. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
RNKWRF-ARW WITH THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND HIRESW ARW
HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
LINGERING WEDGE FOR OUR AREA WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH VALUES FROM
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION/WEAKEN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A DEFINITE AND PERISTENT
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO
EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE DISCREPANT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE FEATURE BACK
ACROSS GA AND THEN RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD AL/MS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...588 DM...PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED ACROSS THE GA/SC REGION.
AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ONE DAY VERSUS ANOTHER. PERHAPS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TUE-WED...PUSHING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. BEST OPTION WAS TO CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NW NC CLOSEST TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S...APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY TUE...70S
TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAMMOTH 600DM UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EASTERN
U.S. EDGING TOWARD THE COAST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION
BY THU. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST 00Z RUN IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
THU...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. THIS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED POPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THU
SHOULD BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE REGION...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SYSTEM AND IN THE
HOT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AS
USUAL ON EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.
FRI...SHOULD AT LEAST A DRIER AIR MASS SPREAD INTO THE REGION PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PUSHING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REACHING DAN/LYH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY SHOWERS/LT RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR
IN BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT
LIKELY VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFT 00Z. A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PC
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PC/RAB
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST WHILE A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS MORNING RNK 12Z/8AM SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB AND PWAT AT 1.34 INCHES.
OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
REGION. LEANED POPS TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FURTHER EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE WEST WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATTERN FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH AND ALSO NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING OUR PIEDMONT AREAS MOSTLY DRY. QPF IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS NOT ACTUALLY VERY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST 24
HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING BACK OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...UP TO 10F BELOW NORMAL MID-JULY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION/WEAKEN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A DEFINITE AND PERISTENT
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO
EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE DISCREPANT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE FEATURE BACK
ACROSS GA AND THEN RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD AL/MS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...588 DM...PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED ACROSS THE GA/SC REGION.
AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ONE DAY VERSUS ANOTHER. PERHAPS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TUE-WED...PUSHING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. BEST OPTION WAS TO CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NW NC CLOSEST TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S...APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY TUE...70S
TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAMMOTH 600DM UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EASTERN
U.S. EDGING TOWARD THE COAST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION
BY THU. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST 00Z RUN IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
THU...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. THIS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED POPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THU
SHOULD BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE REGION...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SYSTEM AND IN THE
HOT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AS
USUAL ON EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.
FRI...SHOULD AT LEAST A DRIER AIR MASS SPREAD INTO THE REGION PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PUSHING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REACHING DAN/LYH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY SHOWERS/LT RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR
IN BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT
LIKELY VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFT 00Z. A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PC/RAB/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST WHILE A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS MORNING RNK 12Z/8AM SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB AND PWAT AT 1.34 INCHES.
OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
REGION. LEANED POPS TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FURTHER EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE WEST WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATTERN FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH AND ALSO NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING OUR PIEDMONT AREAS MOSTLY DRY. QPF IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS NOT ACTUALLY VERY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST 24
HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING BACK OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...UP TO 10F BELOW NORMAL MID-JULY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION/WEAKEN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A DEFINITE AND PERISTENT
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO
EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE DISCREPANT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE FEATURE BACK
ACROSS GA AND THEN RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD AL/MS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...588 DM...PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED ACROSS THE GA/SC REGION.
AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ONE DAY VERSUS ANOTHER. PERHAPS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TUE-WED...PUSHING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. BEST OPTION WAS TO CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NW NC CLOSEST TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S...APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY TUE...70S
TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAMMOTH 600DM UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EASTERN
U.S. EDGING TOWARD THE COAST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION
BY THU. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST 00Z RUN IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
THU...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. THIS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED POPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THU
SHOULD BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE REGION...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SYSTEM AND IN THE
HOT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AS
USUAL ON EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.
FRI...SHOULD AT LEAST A DRIER AIR MASS SPREAD INTO THE REGION PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PUSHING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD -RA THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE WITH LIMITED HEATING AFT 18Z. BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
REACHING DAN/LYH THROUGH AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR VSBYS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY -RA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO ANY
TSRA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR IN
BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT LIKELY
VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFT 00Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS IN
SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE RAIN OCCURS THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PC/RAB
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW WI
THROUGH SCNTL MN. THERE WAS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WANES...
PER THE RAP ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
FOR SUNDAY...WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES BETTER AXIS OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS/OVER THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN...SO
THINKING ANY SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS
THAT AREA LEAVING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TOPPING OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. WILL FEEL A TAD MORE HUMID
THOUGH AS DEW POINTS CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MN/CENTRAL WI. ECMWF HAS SHOWN BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL
AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKES AIM INTO OUR AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS MCS WILL TRACK. LATEST 19.12Z RUN
TAKES THE MCS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME RESPONSE/QPF-WISE...BUT NOT AS
INTENSE. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE 1000-2000J/KG...MAINLY ABOVE 850MB
WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME... PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. SO...COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES GIVEN FORWARD MOVING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TAKE THE MCS MORE INTO OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING HEAT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/WEST
CENTRAL WI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SCENARIO FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/MAINLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWERING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION. LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 5 KFT. A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
AREA OF CUMULUS AND CIRRUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT SLIDES
EAST BUT MAY PRODUCE BROKEN CEILINGS AT KRST AND KLSE AT TIMES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12 TO 15 KTS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE WEAK RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN WI ONTO ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR RESIDING ALOFT. SO
FAR...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY WITH RAP BUFKIT SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS.
QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SOME PASSING CUMULUS. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS 0-1KM MLCAPE BUILDS INTO THE 600-1200J/KG RANGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. NOT
MUCH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TAIL-END
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIP ACROSS THAT AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DEFLECTED NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES UP
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH ARX FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
OTHERWISE...A BIT WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS WITH 850-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHRA/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CAP BUILDING IN THE 800-850MB
LAYER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THESE TEMPS/DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE IN
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COOLER AS THE REGION BECOMES DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AS THE MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING
ON WHETHER ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
TAF REGION. CHANCES ARE PRETTY SLIM AS THE DEEPER FORCING AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MORE SO IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HITTING
RST...SO HAVE NOT ADDED TO THE TAF YET. OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN
MEXICO INTO THE WCNTRL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN
MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS OVER NE MANITOBA WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THRU THE WRN PORTION OF NRN ONTARIO AND THEN SW INTO
NW MN AND ND. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO NRN ONTARIO...SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
MAINLY IN NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH SRN END OF CONVECTION AT TIMES
ACROSS THE BORDER IN FAR NRN MN. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
SHRA NOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE
ROYALE. WELL OUT TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER SVR STORMS THIS AFTN OVER ND WITH
STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS THAT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/TUE.
AS TAIL END OF STRONGER 850MB FLOW SHIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW AND NCNTRL UPPER MI. RECENT SHRA DEVELOPMENT BTWN THE
KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE PROVIDES SOME CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLD CONVECTION FARTHER E AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT
HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO UPPER MI THIS
MORNING. SEEMS OVERDONE...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS WIND
FIELDS WEAKEN THIS AFTN...LAKE BREEZE MAY SLIP ONSHORE OVER
PORTIONS OF NCNTL UPPER MI. IF SO...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITHIN
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ALONG WITH UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC
DWPTS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F LOCALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB OR SO ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL BE LOCALLY WARMER WHERE SOUTHERLY
WINDS DOWNSLOPE...AND ONCE AGAIN...IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SVR STORMS DEVELOPING IN ND THAT WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER ND THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
STORMS AND LIKELY MCS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. GIVEN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND POOL OF ELAVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS MN/WI AVBL FOR
STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE THE NCEP ARW/NMM AND
NSSL WRF OFFER THE MOST VIABLE SOLUTIONS OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE.
THOSE MODELS SHOW TSTMS SPREADING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI AFT 06Z AND
REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI BY 12Z. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SUGGESTS
STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY ARRIVE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AVBL
FOR INFLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT AT LEAST INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL BE SANDWICHED IN A WEAK
TROUGH BETWEEN TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ALOFT...STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE MID ATLANTIC...AND
LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...500MB FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MI IS SOMEWHAT ZONAL. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY BY U.P. STANDARDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. MONDAY EVENING /00Z TUE. MUCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG...AND MORE LIKE 1000 J/KG IN THE
EAST. THIS IS CONDITIONAL THOUGH...GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
LARGELY CAPPED WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE 315K SFC AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...AND A 25 TO 35
KNOT LL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI/IOWA WILL SUPPORT AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ANY INCOMING MCS AND FOR
DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 00Z TUE. 0-6 KM/1-6KM SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR MCS SUSTAINABILITY/TSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL...AROUND 25-40 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. WITH A SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE...THINKING SOME SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL ARE A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE
IN/DEVELOP LATE MONDAY EVENING /3Z/ OUT WEST...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES AS
THINGS PROGRESS EASTWARD. GENERALLY THE BETTER INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES AND BECOMES LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P./WI
BORDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHES
AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO INFILTRATE UPPER MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOL DOWN AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7-10C...SO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM ALBERTA INTO ONTARIO OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA IN NRN MN MAY REACH NW
UPPER MI LATE OVERNIGHT AT CMX. SINCE THE PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...IT WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI AND
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...BUT REMAIN WEST OF IWD/CMX THROUGH
06Z/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE S WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...STRONGER
WINDS/GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT THE HIGHER
OBS PLATFORMS...MAINLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. ON TUE...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. AGAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
OF 15-25KT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH/COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/TUE AHEAD OF LOW...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
FRI...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.
ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG MAY EXPAND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
TUE...ESPECIALLY ONCE PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOME INDICATION FROM EVENING MODELS THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD INDEED
FORM AGAIN BY MORNING AS HAD BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD COULD REMAIN GREATER
THAT PAST FEW MORNINGS AS READINGS/WINDS WERE A LITTLE
HIGHER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF CIGS NEAR FL010 FOR A
FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
QUICK EROSION IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...IF THEY DO INDEED FORM...AS
TEMPERATURES/WINDS INCREASE BY MID MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE NORTH MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 10Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
THEREAFTER... WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND OCCASIONAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AROUND KLVS IN THE AFTERNOON AND KTCC IN THE EVENING.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE THAN RECENT WEEKS. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
IN QUITE A WHILE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SHIFT WEST AND ALLOW SEVERAL MOIST BACK DOOR FRONTS TO
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL TAPER OFF THE HEAT AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENING IS VERY LOW BUT WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL IMPACT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES THIS EVENING. THE
20Z SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CRATERING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
DESPITE ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BEST MOISTURE IS
POOLING AROUND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER THE SE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z GFS ARE PICKING UP ON A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING FROM THE DIVIDE TO NEAR THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. THE 06Z
WRF AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS EARLIER BUT BACKED OFF ON IT FOR
THE 12Z RUN. QPF VALUES COULD BE HIGH BENEATH A SLOW MOVING SOUTH
TO NORTH COMPLEX BUT PLACEMENT AND DURATION IS VERY QUESTIONABLE.
PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT. THE
OTHER WRINKLE IS THE HRRR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH AFTER 06Z UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS OCCUR AS THE LATEST IR SHOWS SOME VIGOROUS
CONVECTION ERUPTING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF SHOW WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE CURRENT
594DM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM SHIFTING NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND BUILDING TO 599DM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS INTRODUCES
ANOTHER TOSS UP AS HEIGHTS RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT AN AXIS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES WEST FROM WEST/CENTRAL TX. SEVERAL DAYS AGO
MODELS WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR MORE COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. MADE ONLY SUBTLE POP
CHANGES TO INCREASE VALUES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AT
LEAST HOT TEMPS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TREND TOWARD THE WEST WHILE YET
ANOTHER VERY STRONG SUMMER UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TRANSITION PERIOD FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE HIGH WARPS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. A STRONG BACK
DOOR FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER NM. THIS IS MOST CERTAINLY
NOT ANYWHERE NEAR THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
OVER THE CONUS DURING LATE JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE TODAYS SHOWER AND STORM CROP HAS BEEN A SLOW STARTER...IT MAY
END UP TO BE NEARLY AS GOOD OR BETTER COVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTN OR EVE. THE BULK
OF THE BURN SCAR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RISK OF HEAVY
RUNOFF OR WORSE THROUGH THE EVE. THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VARY A FAIR DEGREE
FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...PROBABLY SHIFTING A
LITTLE WAYS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH MON AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TUE AND WED. IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THEREAFTER...AS
TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE...BUT LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO AGREE PRETTY WELL THAT A MODERATE TO STRONG BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PUSH INTO AND ACROSS AT LEAST
EAST AND CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER WEST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MODERATE TO ROBUST INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR AND BEHIND ITS PASSAGE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND MON.
UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID TO LATE JULY CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION.
NO CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AT
LEAST...COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT MINIMUM RHS HAVE REACHED
MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS A FEW SITES ACROSS NORTH NM AND
EVEN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT BETWEEN
MON AND WED...BUT SUBSIDE SOME AGAIN BY LATE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND
HAINES INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP SOME MON AND PERHAPS
TUE...THEN DROP SOME WED AND THU BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP NEAR END OF
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL VARY FROM FAIR TO VERY
GOOD...DEPENDING IN LARGE PART ON WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ON A PARTICULAR DAY.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.
FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.
MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.
FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.
MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1039 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS FORM ILN...OHX...AND RNK ALL HAVE A RATHER
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEAR 600 MB. 12Z NAM AND ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AND MOIST THAT PARCELS AND THUS
CU MIGHT BE ABLE TO RISE PAST THIS WARM AIR FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO POINTS MORE TOWARDS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY JUST MIX
OUT BY EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. RECENT HRRR RUN AND RECENT RAP RUNS ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER ON. THE 9Z SREF HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE CURRENT WARM
MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
END UP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OR POSSIBLY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE
TN AND VA BORDER COUNTIES FROM WHITLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST TO PIKE.
ATTM...WE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS AND CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
OVERALL...TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TRENDS WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.
ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY UPWARDS
MODIFIED HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WHICH BASED ON SAT IMAGERY...IS SUNNIER ATTM THEN
ANTICIPATED IN PREV FCST UPDATES. AFTN POPS ACROSS WRN PTNS OF
THE FA WERE LOWERED TO ISOLD SHWRS BASED ON HRLY SIMULATED RADAR
REF FROM THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHWRS.
THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO A MID LVL CAP LCTD BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KFT
AGL...WHICH WILL LARGELY PREVENT FREE CNVCTN THIS AFTN.
ORIGINAL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND
HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE
BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
749 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN
MEXICO INTO THE WCNTRL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN
MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS OVER NE MANITOBA WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THRU THE WRN PORTION OF NRN ONTARIO AND THEN SW INTO
NW MN AND ND. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO NRN ONTARIO...SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
MAINLY IN NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH SRN END OF CONVECTION AT TIMES
ACROSS THE BORDER IN FAR NRN MN. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
SHRA NOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE
ROYALE. WELL OUT TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER SVR STORMS THIS AFTN OVER ND WITH
STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS THAT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/TUE.
AS TAIL END OF STRONGER 850MB FLOW SHIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW AND NCNTRL UPPER MI. RECENT SHRA DEVELOPMENT BTWN THE
KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE PROVIDES SOME CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLD CONVECTION FARTHER E AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT
HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO UPPER MI THIS
MORNING. SEEMS OVERDONE...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS WIND
FIELDS WEAKEN THIS AFTN...LAKE BREEZE MAY SLIP ONSHORE OVER
PORTIONS OF NCNTL UPPER MI. IF SO...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITHIN
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ALONG WITH UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC
DWPTS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F LOCALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB OR SO ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL BE LOCALLY WARMER WHERE SOUTHERLY
WINDS DOWNSLOPE...AND ONCE AGAIN...IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SVR STORMS DEVELOPING IN ND THAT WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER ND THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
STORMS AND LIKELY MCS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. GIVEN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND POOL OF ELAVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS MN/WI AVBL FOR
STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE THE NCEP ARW/NMM AND
NSSL WRF OFFER THE MOST VIABLE SOLUTIONS OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE.
THOSE MODELS SHOW TSTMS SPREADING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI AFT 06Z AND
REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI BY 12Z. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SUGGESTS
STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY ARRIVE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AVBL
FOR INFLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT AT LEAST INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON TUESDAY AS MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA. DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER ND MON EVENING
LOOKS LIKELY TO OCCUR...WHICH WOULD BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS
INTO THE CWA MON NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH
THE CURRENT FAVORED TRACK OF THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI. SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP AND STORM INTENSITY
DURING THE DAY TUE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THINK THAT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN THAT MORNING INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND 1000J/KG /HIGHEST OVER THE W NEAR IWD/. AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES E INTO THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS EVEN LESS LIKELY. A WAKE LOW IS
QUITE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WOULD THINK THAT THE THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEICHE ACTIVITY ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS PRETTY HIGH. MAY
SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
INITIAL CONVECTION...BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SE OF THE CWA BY 06Z WED...AND DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI AS A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EVENING HRS.
SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL
MOVE E. THE STORMS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT...AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX AROUND 09Z OR LATER. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE PCPN WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE S WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...STRONGER
WINDS/GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT THE HIGHER
OBS PLATFORMS...MAINLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. ON TUE...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. AGAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
OF 15-25KT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH/COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/TUE AHEAD OF LOW...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
FRI...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.
ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG MAY EXPAND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
TUE...ESPECIALLY ONCE PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CUT OFF
OVER NRN AL WITH S/WV MOVING THROUGH ERN MS. A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE COAST THROUGH SE MS INTO CENTRAL AL.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON JUST TO THE N/NW
OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO S/WV LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HRRR
INDICATES MOST WILL BE IN E/SE MS. LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TEMPS ALOFT IN 12Z KJAN SOUNDING/MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LAV HOURLY TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF THIS IDEA. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN CENTRAL/SW MS AND FOG IN SE
MS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO...LOOKING AT TUESDAY GUIDANCE EARLIER SEEMED BULLISH ON HIGH
TEMPS AND WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS/STORMS IN E/SE MS AND
TEMPS ALOFT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...WENT WITH EURO MOS FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY. THIS WAS AROUND 2-5 DEGREES COOLER AT SOME SITES BUT MAVMOS
SEEMS TO HAVE COME DOWN IN CURRENT RUN. WILL LOOK TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING RESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING AND LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO MOST OF THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
AN ISO SHRA ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER
TONIGHT WHERE MORE PATCH FOG/LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP. IT WITH BE
PATCHY...BUT PERSISTENCE INDICATES IT WILL OCCUR AGAIN. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOG AND SOME STRATUS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. RUC SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS WERE SHOWING...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO LOUISIANA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE MORE CLOUDS WERE FORMING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
TO HAPPEN TO THE WEST TODAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...WITH THE UPPER WAVE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGHT THEY WOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE...BUT THEY
HAVE LINGERED FOR A LITTLE WHILE. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING. GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...EXPANDED THE AREA AND LEFT ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. THE NAM SHOWS
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW. STUCK WITH THE GFS AND LEFT
THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AGAIN TOMORROW. EURO AND GFS SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A STRONGHOLD AND KEEPING THE WAVE FROM
RETROGRADING ANY FURTHER. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 80S AGAIN TODAY. THE UPPER
WAVE/AXIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. /07/
LONG TERM...FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL
SUPPORT PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE INTENSE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HAVE INCORPORATED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE
INCREASING POPS SOME WED NIGHT NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH H850
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 22 DEG C OVER THE DELTA REGION. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED
LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS IN WHAT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY COOL JULY. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE HOT DAYTIME BIAS OF THE
GFS MEX MOS...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF
MOS. HOWEVER...THE MODEL OUTPUT IS CERTAINLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH
THE SIGNAL FOR HOT CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUS NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
ARKLAMISS WITH GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 68 89 70 / 2 4 13 9
MERIDIAN 89 67 90 70 / 16 8 23 15
VICKSBURG 87 65 90 67 / 2 4 8 9
HATTIESBURG 89 70 92 71 / 19 8 22 16
NATCHEZ 86 66 88 69 / 5 4 8 14
GREENVILLE 87 68 92 71 / 2 4 9 6
GREENWOOD 89 67 91 69 / 2 4 12 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/CME/07/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
531 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOG AND SOME STRATUS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. RUC SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
MODELS WERE SHOWING...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO LOUISIANA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE MORE CLOUDS WERE FORMING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
TO HAPPEN TO THE WEST TODAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...WITH THE UPPER WAVE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGHT THEY WOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE...BUT THEY
HAVE LINGERED FOR A LITTLE WHILE. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING. GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...EXPANDED THE AREA AND LEFT ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. THE NAM SHOWS
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW. STUCK WITH THE GFS AND LEFT
THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AGAIN TOMORROW. EURO AND GFS SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A STRONGHOLD AND KEEPING THE WAVE FROM
RETROGRADING ANY FURTHER. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 80S AGAIN TODAY. THE UPPER
WAVE/AXIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL
SUPPORT PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE INTENSE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HAVE INCORPORATED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE
INCREASING POPS SOME WED NIGHT NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH H850
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 22 DEG C OVER THE DELTA REGION. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED
LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS IN WHAT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY COOL JULY. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE HOT DAYTIME BIAS OF THE
GFS MEX MOS...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF
MOS. HOWEVER...THE MODEL OUTPUT IS CERTAINLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH
THE SIGNAL FOR HOT CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUS NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
ARKLAMISS WITH GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR GLH/GWO DUE TO PATCHY
FOG. LOOKING FOR THE FOG TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT MEI/HBG IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
THE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 68 94 70 / 2 4 13 9
MERIDIAN 90 67 93 70 / 16 8 23 15
VICKSBURG 88 65 93 67 / 2 4 8 9
HATTIESBURG 92 70 94 71 / 19 8 22 16
NATCHEZ 87 66 91 69 / 5 4 8 14
GREENVILLE 88 68 93 71 / 2 4 9 6
GREENWOOD 90 67 93 69 / 2 4 12 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXTENSIVELY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH OBS AND SATELLITE INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS THAT COULD AFFECT KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM
IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND A CU FIELD IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WTO 14 TO 23
KNOTS BY 17/18Z...BUT THEN DIMINISH 12 KNOTS OR LESS BY 22/00-01Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1054 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
EARLY UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. OTHER AREAS OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. MONITORING THESE AREAS CLOSELY. THE MAIN TIMING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK...IN THE WEST BETWEEN 18Z AND
21Z...CENTRAL 21Z TO 01Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A 55KT JET
WAS SEEN PUNCHING THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING...WHICH WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOCUS AND
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS COMPLETELY ON MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
CURRENT REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DEVELOPING AREA NEAR
SHERIDAN WYOMING HANDLED WELL. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
COULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TO DICKINSON...AND THEN MOVE TO A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN THE AREA DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE MORE INTENSE WITH THE AREA AND
ARE QUICKER IN THE OVERALL EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERROGATE SATELLITE/RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION
AND MODELS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER TIMING. THE
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CALL FOR EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 83.
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN MCS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 IS THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION...AND IT MATCHES THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MODERATE RISK AREA WELL.
THE 21/00 UTC HIRES ARW AND NMM CALL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION EVEN
FURTHER WEST AROUND NOON...AND BOTH CALL FOR A LARGE BOW ECHO TO
BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND BISMARCK BY 4 PM CDT. WITH THE
INITIATION AREA MOVING WEST...THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY HAVE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REQUESTED
AN 18 UTC BALLOON BE LAUNCHED...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INSIGHT
INTO HOW EXTREME THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME BY THEN.
BE SURE TO SEE THE DAY 1 STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK GRAPHIC AND DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FINALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THREE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE PAST
36 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WARM SECTOR HAS ALSO
SHIFTED NORTH. HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F ARE NOW FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFT FROM PROGRESSIVE TO BLOCKED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DOES NOTHING TO SQUELCH CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
21Z AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL TERMINALS..KBIS/KMOT BETWEEN 21Z
AND 01Z. KJMS CLOSER TO 00Z TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
801 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A 55KT JET
WAS SEEN PUNCHING THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING...WHICH WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOCUS AND
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS COMPLETELY ON MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
CURRENT REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DEVELOPING AREA NEAR
SHERIDAN WYOMING HANDLED WELL. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
COULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TO DICKINSON...AND THEN MOVE TO A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN THE AREA DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE MORE INTENSE WITH THE AREA AND
ARE QUICKER IN THE OVERALL EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERROGATE SATELLITE/RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION
AND MODELS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER TIMING. THE
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CALL FOR EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 83.
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN MCS ALONG INTERSTATE 94 IS THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION...AND IT MATCHES THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MODERATE RISK AREA WELL.
THE 21/00 UTC HIRES ARW AND NMM CALL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION EVEN
FURTHER WEST AROUND NOON...AND BOTH CALL FOR A LARGE BOW ECHO TO
BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND BISMARCK BY 4 PM CDT. WITH THE
INITIATION AREA MOVING WEST...THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY HAVE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REQUESTED
AN 18 UTC BALLOON BE LAUNCHED...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INSIGHT
INTO HOW EXTREME THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME BY THEN.
BE SURE TO SEE THE DAY 1 STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK GRAPHIC AND DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FINALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THREE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE PAST
36 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WARM SECTOR HAS ALSO
SHIFTED NORTH. HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F ARE NOW FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFT FROM PROGRESSIVE TO BLOCKED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DOES NOTHING TO SQUELCH CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES AFTER 21Z AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
638 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014
UPDATED FOR POPS ADDED TODAY
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THROUGH MID WEEK MAINTAINING COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADES TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...THE SAME HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN THE ONLY MODEL(S) TO
SHOW THE SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTH COAST ALSO SHOWED SOME LIGHT
FORECASTED RADAR RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING AROUND
18Z TODAY. REALITY HAS BROUGHT ECHOS STREAMING INLAND FROM OFF THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST. THE HRRR SHOWS A SHORT WAVE SLIDING ALONG THIS
DEFORMATION BAND/STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE END OF ITS RUN THROUGH AT
LEAST 01Z. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION BASICALLY
COVERING THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
FLORENCE TO MT JEFFERSON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS
TO FALL BUT COULDN`T IGNORE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY
TO BASICALLY CONNECT THE RAIN DROPS ON THE GROUND. /JBONK
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 417 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STRATUS DECK HAS
LARGELY LIFTED AND BROKEN UP QUITE A BIT. A SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG OFFSHORE. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER A VERY
COMPLICATED FLOW PATTERN AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PUSHES UP
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH PICKS UP ON PACIFIC MOISTURE. AM CURRENTLY SEEING A
SMATTERING OF VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF OF AND ALONG THE
COAST SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLE WORDING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS.
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTH B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
TODAY AND SET UP ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY. AS IT
DOES THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE FETCH IS FORECAST TO FURTHER SPREAD
IN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SHOWERS OR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS
AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN VARYING CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM WETTER...SO EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE THREAT INCREASES IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...BY TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THEN STARTS TO SWING ONSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE THAT IS
ALREADY OVER OUR AREA FROM TUESDAY AS IT SPREADS ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODEL TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT SLOWER THAN MODEL
RUNS SHOWED 24 OR 48 HOURS AGO...MOVING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME
LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEK. THE COLD POOL
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
JBONK/TOLLESON
LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TW
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SCT TO BKN
LAYER AROUND 5000 FT AND HIGHER CIRRUS ABOVE. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT IN THE
INTERIOR TAFS SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z MONDAY.
MARINE...RELATIVELY BENIGN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL AROUND 7 FT TODAY WILL DROP TO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE
TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO RETURN. /NEUMAN/26
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
417 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THROUGH MID WEEK MAINTAINING COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADES TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STRATUS DECK HAS
LARGELY LIFTED AND BROKEN UP QUITE A BIT. A SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG OFFSHORE. THIS LEAVES THE PACNW UNDER A VERY
COMPLICATED FLOW PATTERN AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PUSHES UP
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH PICKS UP ON PACIFIC MOISTURE. AM CURRENTLY SEEING A
SMATTERING OF VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF OF AND ALONG THE
COAST SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLE WORDING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS.
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTH B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
TODAY AND SET UP ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY. AS IT
DOES THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE FETCH IS FORECAST TO FURTHER SPREAD
IN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SHOWERS OR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS
AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN VARYING CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM WETTER...SO EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE THREAT INCREASES IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...BY TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THEN STARTS TO SWING ONSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THERE IS A FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE THAT IS
ALREADY OVER OUR AREA FROM TUESDAY AS IT SPREADS ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODEL TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT SLOWER THAN MODEL
RUNS SHOWED 24 OR 48 HOURS AGO...MOVING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME
LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEK. THE COLD POOL
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
JBONK/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TW
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SCT TO BKN
LAYER AROUND 5000 FT AND HIGHER CIRRUS ABOVE. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT IN THE
INTERIOR TAFS SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...RELATIVELY BENIGN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL AROUND 7 FT TODAY WILL DROP TO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE
TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO RETURN. /NEUMAN/26
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1029 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AS A RESULT OF CLEARING THIS MORNING FROM
THE SIERRA FRONT SOUTHWARD HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS AT MID MORNING. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AND INCOMING UPPER JET WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO PUSH
OFF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 395 AND
95 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE FASTER
TODAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGEST
STORMS WILL STILL HAVE DECENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND ALSO INTO THE EVENING. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/
UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER WRN NV AND A SMALL PART OF NE CA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LIFT AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER
THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT.
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST HOUR NORTH OF
GERLACH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
MORE STRIKES WILL DEVELOP. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
RETURNS HAS NARROWED A BIT...BUT IT IS UNDER THE AREA OF COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM NW PERSHING COUNTY INTO SIERRA
AND NEVADA COUNTIES IN ERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
PLUMAS, LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INCLUDING PORTOLA,
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. WE KEPT AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVER THE REGION WAS REPORTED AROUND 1 AM, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN AS CONVECTION IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE SHOWER BAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE SIERRA PROVIDING SOME LARGER
SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FASTER CELL MOTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A MORE LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER,
IF THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, MANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE PROBABILITY IS
A LITTLE HIGHER FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD INTO CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES.
FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AND BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS PROJECTED TO
EJECT INLAND AND PRODUCE A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF FORCING MAINLY
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE, A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY WHERE INCREASING WEST WINDS PRODUCE
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT
SO SOME STRONG CELLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH FASTER MOTIONS
INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT MAY BECOME TOO STRONG AND SHEAR
OFF THE TOPS OF SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A QUICKER END TO
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NO STORMS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-80
NORTHWARD WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES. MJD
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE WRN NV VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS RIDGE INTENSIFIES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE
SRN CWA.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSTMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 20
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF NV AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BE VFR
OR BETTER THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EARLY TODAY.
MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
REMNANT MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. SO FAR...CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN HOLDING DOWN THE HEATING...WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM HITTING 100 ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
FARTHER EAST A BIT MORE SUN WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HIT
LOWER 100S OUT TOWARDS LAA. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS BEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS TO LAS ANIMAS TO KIM. IF
DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE LOWER 50S...THEN 1500 J/KG (OR A LITTLE
BETTER) OF CAPE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER
SHEARS ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. BUT WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1500+ J/KG...GUSTY
OUT FLOW WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH...AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE WALDO IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...SO THIS AREA WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WALDO WILL BE MISSED
TODAY.
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND MONSOON
PLUME APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS MEAGER...SO OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF DEW POINTS CAN INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AS NAM12 SUGGESTS...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AGAIN. HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING THE 100+ TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED
BY GUIDANCE FOR PUB. SOME LOWER 100S OUT ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT KEPT TEMPERATURES A TAD LOWER FOR PUB
AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HOT LATELY AND EASTERLY WINDS DON`T
USUALLY BODE FOR SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES. AS FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ON THE BURN SCARS...THIS STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD...HOT (600DM) UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME BEING SHUNTED INTO THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
WESTERN COLORADO...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GFS LIKELY OVERDONE IN ITS QPF FIELD...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CAP TO HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE A TAD COOLER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTH AND
WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
REMAINING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
STATE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH BROAD NORTHWEST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPEHRE
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS KEEPING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KALS
AND KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO THE EAST OF KLHX WHERE
ERRATIC GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND HAIL NEARING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRINGING A
NORTH WIND SHIFT AROUND 15 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
HOWEVER A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KLHX
WHERE SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS FORM ILN...OHX...AND RNK ALL HAVE A RATHER
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEAR 600 MB. 12Z NAM AND ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AND MOIST THAT PARCELS AND THUS
CU MIGHT BE ABLE TO RISE PAST THIS WARM AIR FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO POINTS MORE TOWARDS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY JUST MIX
OUT BY EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. RECENT HRRR RUN AND RECENT RAP RUNS ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER ON. THE 9Z SREF HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE CURRENT WARM
MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
END UP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OR POSSIBLY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE
TN AND VA BORDER COUNTIES FROM WHITLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST TO PIKE.
ATTM...WE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS AND CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
OVERALL...TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TRENDS WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.
THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
111 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN
MEXICO INTO THE WCNTRL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN
MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS OVER NE MANITOBA WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THRU THE WRN PORTION OF NRN ONTARIO AND THEN SW INTO
NW MN AND ND. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO NRN ONTARIO...SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
MAINLY IN NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH SRN END OF CONVECTION AT TIMES
ACROSS THE BORDER IN FAR NRN MN. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
SHRA NOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE
ROYALE. WELL OUT TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER SVR STORMS THIS AFTN OVER ND WITH
STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS THAT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/TUE.
AS TAIL END OF STRONGER 850MB FLOW SHIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW AND NCNTRL UPPER MI. RECENT SHRA DEVELOPMENT BTWN THE
KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE PROVIDES SOME CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLD CONVECTION FARTHER E AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT
HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO UPPER MI THIS
MORNING. SEEMS OVERDONE...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS WIND
FIELDS WEAKEN THIS AFTN...LAKE BREEZE MAY SLIP ONSHORE OVER
PORTIONS OF NCNTL UPPER MI. IF SO...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITHIN
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ALONG WITH UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC
DWPTS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F LOCALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB OR SO ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL BE LOCALLY WARMER WHERE SOUTHERLY
WINDS DOWNSLOPE...AND ONCE AGAIN...IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SVR STORMS DEVELOPING IN ND THAT WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER ND THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
STORMS AND LIKELY MCS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. GIVEN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND POOL OF ELAVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS MN/WI AVBL FOR
STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE THE NCEP ARW/NMM AND
NSSL WRF OFFER THE MOST VIABLE SOLUTIONS OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE.
THOSE MODELS SHOW TSTMS SPREADING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI AFT 06Z AND
REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI BY 12Z. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SUGGESTS
STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY ARRIVE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AVBL
FOR INFLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT AT LEAST INTO FAR WRN
UPPER MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON TUESDAY AS MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA. DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER ND MON EVENING
LOOKS LIKELY TO OCCUR...WHICH WOULD BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS
INTO THE CWA MON NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH
THE CURRENT FAVORED TRACK OF THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI. SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP AND STORM INTENSITY
DURING THE DAY TUE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THINK THAT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN THAT MORNING INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AROUND 1000J/KG /HIGHEST OVER THE W NEAR IWD/. AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES E INTO THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS EVEN LESS LIKELY. A WAKE LOW IS
QUITE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WOULD THINK THAT THE THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEICHE ACTIVITY ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS PRETTY HIGH. MAY
SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
INITIAL CONVECTION...BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SE OF THE CWA BY 06Z WED...AND DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI AS A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING
WILL MOVE E. THE STORMS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX AROUND 09Z OR LATER. MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE PCPN WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR.
CONFIDENCE WITH STORMS AND WIND DIRECTIONS IS LOW AFTER 09Z AT ALL
SITES AS THE STORMS WILL MANUFACTURE THEIR OWN WEATHER AND MODELS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE S WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...STRONGER
WINDS/GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT THE HIGHER
OBS PLATFORMS...MAINLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. ON TUE...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. AGAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
OF 15-25KT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH/COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/TUE AHEAD OF LOW...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
FRI...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.
ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG MAY EXPAND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
TUE...ESPECIALLY ONCE PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S NOTED
JUST NORTH OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT EXTENDED FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>033-042.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.
LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERACHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
MVFR FOR BJI WITH SLOWLY ERODING 1500FT DECK. ELSEWHERE VFR FOR THE
AFTN THEN SVR SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING IMPACTING DVL AROUND 23-01Z GFK AND FAR 01-03Z AND TVF BJI
BY 02-04Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
332 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOULD BE THE BIRTH OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT WILL RACE EAST TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS COMPLEX NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM...WHICH IS A MAJOR OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME...SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN THIS CONVECTION RACES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP AND WITHOUT A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DO. THE 17Z HRRR SHOWS A FEW
CELLS MAKING IN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT. HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE THE MCS COULD IMPACT THESE AREAS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAY CONCERN.
A COLD FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THE WARMEST AIR AT 925 MB MAKES IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 27
C. TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THIS HEAT LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SO HAVE HAVE NOT ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT AGAIN THE CAP WILL BE A
MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE AREA
DRY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING QUIET AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT THIS FROM
FORMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND DEEPENS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DIURNAL WARMING INCREASES THE MIXING DEPTH...WITH ANY CUMULUS IN THE
4K-5K FT RANGE. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAZE
TO A MINIMUM AS WELL. THE DEEPER MIXING AND MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE AT
BOTH KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON.
A STORM COMPLEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND/
NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE FORCING TAKES THIS COMPLEX
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN/NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. A
COUPLE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THIS COMPLEX SOUTHEAST DOWN THE MS
RIVER OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE KLSE/KRST AREAS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. THIS LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND
700MB CAPPING THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHWEST WI TONIGHT AND
THE MAIN FORCING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LEFT THE KRST TAF DRY LATE
TONIGHT AND ONLY CARRIED A 10-13Z VCSH MENTION AT KLSE. GRADIENT
WINDS OF 10-15KTS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LATE NIGHT BR TO A MINIMUM. A
COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUE...AROUND 15Z AT KRST AND 18Z AT
KLSE. FRONT WILL BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND A DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE TAF SITES LATER TUE MORNING/TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
095.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS