Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/20/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE...THAT BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...HAS NOW MOVED WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...INTO SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR HAS BEEN PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS LOW-LEVEL DRYING ALONG WITH A SWITCH IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ONE HAS ENDED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OUR
CWA THIS EVENING...AND HAS ALSO CLEARED SKIES OUT AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS QUIET WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BEYOND AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUR FURTHER...WITH THE 18Z
GFS SHOWING PWATS FALLING WELL BELOW 1 INCH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS...CURRENT GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WILL BE PREVAIL THIS EVENING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH AND KIPL AND OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
KPHX AND KIWA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 115 DEGREES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...THOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. SOME
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD START TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
SUNDAY. HOTTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DIMINISH. NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH THE BULK OF MAINLY CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 18/04Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S-
MID 50S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. 18/00Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.10
INCHES...A DECREASE OF NEARLY 0.20 INCH VERSUS WED EVENING.
18/00Z NAM DEPICTS LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR BY DAYBREAK FRI NEAR THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THE REST
OF TONIGHT PER THE 18/00Z NAM. MEANWHILE...VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRI ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEN DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS AND SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
WITH A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS FROM AROUND 17Z-18Z FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MVFR VISIBILITIES
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA...AS WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES MOSTLY
AT 10-15K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOULD BE SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION. STILL WATCHING HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT SOUTH OF US AND HOW IT MIGHT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FEATURE WE WERE DISCUSSING YESTERDAY
IS DEFINITELY HELPING TO PUSH A DECENT PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF AS WELL AS MUCH DEEPER INTO SONORA OVER THE
PAST 20 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE HELPED INITIATE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACTIVITY AND A SERIES OF STRONG OUTFLOWS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA...THEN UP THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHERN SONORA BY
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TRENDING FURTHER NORTH IN SONORA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS MAY
NOT BE HANDLING RESULTING OUTFLOW INFLUENCED MOISTURE FIELDS VERY
WELL...AND THAT STRONG WIGGLE IN THE FLOW MAY HAVE MORE TO WORK WITH
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING FOR SATURDAY WHEN IT PUSHES UP
NEAR TO WEST OF OUR AREA.
BY NEXT WEEK OUR MAIN STORY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO HEAT. A VERY
STRONG HIGH CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH
ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH ENSEMBLE MEAN CORRELATION AND
VERY FAVORABLE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS (IT LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE...SOLID RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...AND INCREASINGLY
LIKELY). STILL LOOKING AT FORECAST NEAR RECORD 850 MB TEMPERATURE
NEAR 35C WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH 850-700 THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 112-114 RANGE BOTH DAYS IN
TUCSON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPERATURES ABOVE MOS AND CLOSER
TO THESE VALUES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
WE WON`T GO QUITE THAT HIGH...BUT UP INTO THE 110-111 RANGE FOR NOW.
THIS IS STILL NEAR RECORD VALUES.
AFTER THE HEAT THE ECMWF (AGAIN VERY REASONABLY) SHOWS STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE INDICATORS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
823 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN AND THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS ENDING. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A READILY APPARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
DESERTS OF SOCAL IS LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP PROVIDE LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME TSTMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS SHOWN IN
THE 1Z HRRR AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD GET INTERESTING TSTM WISE WITH THAT WAVE
NEARBY AS DEPICTED IN GFS SOLUTION. SREF CALIBRATED TSTM GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS BEEN REASONABLY RELIABLE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STORMS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
STILL BE IN THE 0.8 TO 1 INCH RANGE WHICH WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAINS
FROM STORMS, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE STORM MOTION
HELPING LESSEN THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. STILL
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 9 PM. ENJOY ANOTHER SPLENDID SUNSET THIS
EVENING COURTESY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM TODAYS STORMS. CS
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MID WEEK WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM...
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW BETWEEN THE HIGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER,
A FEW WAVES AND A JET STREAK WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH DUE TO INCREASED STORM
MOTIONS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
ALPINE, MONO AND WESTERN NEVADA WEST OF HAWTHORNE TO PYRAMID LAKE
WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN THE STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL. THE STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 9 PM, BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A WAVE AND DEFORMATION ZONE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STORM MOTION INCREASING TO 10 MPH OR MORE. THIS WILL LOWER
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THOUGH THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER
MONO COUNTY. BEST CHANCE FOR MONDAY IS NORTH AND WEST OF TRUCKEE
TO GERLACH, AS THE JET SETS UP OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND A
WAVES PASSES ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS
ON MONDAY ARE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL.
MODELS PUSH A SECOND WAVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF PORTOLA-RENO-FALLON. BRONG
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND THE ON-GOING
FORECAST. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS A WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AFTER TUESDAY EVENING,
DRY AIR RETURNS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE SOUTH RESULTING IN DRIER MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY QUIET AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DRASTICALLY DIMINISH.
AFTER THE WAVE PASSES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK, RIDGING WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFYING
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD
TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF RETURNING MOISTURE FOR
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IF THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THERMAL TROUGH POSITION WHICH FAVORS INCREASED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM ALPINE TO MONO COUNTY. BOYD
AVIATION...
MODERATE CUMULUS TO SOME ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE ALREADY
FORMED FROM MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FOR SIERRA TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, SO WILL
CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR CXP AND RNO AS WELL. TURBULENCE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 45 KTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY
PERSIST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR SUNDAY AND NOW MONDAY LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY AS WELL. THE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY HAVE MORE HAIL
AND STRONGER WINDS. CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS. BOYD/20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
708 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.Synopsis...
Monsoon moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies and mostly below
normal temperatures through the weekend. There is a chance
of thunderstorms & showers...mainly over higher terrain into the
weekend including the Sierra, Coastal, and Northern mountains
surrounding interior NorCal.
&&
Discussion...
Monsoonal moisture is sticking around and we are looking at
another day of below normal temperatures along with the
possibility of mountain showers & thunderstorms. Instability looks
best from the Lassen Peak area southward along the Sierra crest
including the Lake Tahoe region into Yosemite. However, there may
also be some weak instability over the coastal range in western
Shasta & Tehama counties later this afternoon. Although
instability will be in place by late morning, the HRRR model is
showing that showers should start developing around 1 pm. Models
continue to show over an inch of precipitable water across our CWA
so any thunderstorms that develop should be wet with moderate to
heavy downpours. This pattern of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will continue through the weekend with a lingering slight chance
into Monday (though areal coverage will be more limited). We may
see some extra "oomph" in thunderstorm activity on Sunday as the
GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models show a vort max swinging around an
offshore low and moving over NorCal.
Temperatures in the short term will remain near to below normal
and there won`t be too much day to day fluctuation in the daytime
highs or overnight lows. The warmest region will be the Northern
Sacramento Valley ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s with
Saturday being the peak heat. For the Central Sacramento Valley
southward into the Northern San Joaquin Valley (including the Sac
Metro area) highs will be upper 80s to mid 90s...again, with
Saturday being the hottest day. The Delta range of max temps will
generally be mid 70s to mid 80s thanks to the cooling Delta
Breeze. Mountain areas will have highs in the 70s and 80s except
down into the 60s along the Sierra Crest. Overnight lows for the
valley will be fairly persistent in the 60s except low 70s across
thermal belts in the foothills. JBB
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
No significant changes to the extended forecast. An upper level
trough offshore from the CA coast will bring a dry southwest flow
across Northern California. Temperatures gradually increase and
dry weather dominates as the four corners ridge strengthens aloft.
Daytime highs will be near normal on Wednesday and on Thursday,
looks like most of our CWA finally goes above normal by a degree
or two. JBB
&&
.Updated Aviation...
The swath of marine stratus that extended into Valley only developed
over eastern Sac county, sparing KSAC and KMHR and will erode by
15z. The stratus over the western Delta will erode around 17z-18z.
Bases of 012 and tops around 025 according to OAK sounding from
17/12z, KSUU METAR, and Bodega Bay coastal profiler.
TS expected later today over mountains. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
425 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.Synopsis...
Monsoon moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies and mostly below
normal temperatures through the weekend. There is a chance
of thunderstorms & showers...mainly over higher terrain into the
weekend including the Sierra, Coastal, and Northern mountains
surrounding interior NorCal.
&&
Discussion...
Monsoonal moisture is sticking around and we are looking at
another day of below normal temperatures along with the
possibility of mountain showers & thunderstorms. Instability looks
best from the Lassen Peak area southward along the Sierra crest
including the Lake Tahoe region into Yosemite. However, there may
also be some weak instability over the coastal range in western
Shasta & Tehama counties later this afternoon. Although
instability will be in place by late morning, the HRRR model is
showing that showers should start developing around 1 pm. Models
continue to show over an inch of precipitable water across our CWA
so any thunderstorms that develop should be wet with moderate to
heavy downpours. This pattern of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will continue through the weekend with a lingering slight chance
into Monday (though areal coverage will be more limited). We may
see some extra "oomph" in thunderstorm activity on Sunday as the
GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models show a vort max swinging around an
offshore low and moving over NorCal.
Temperatures in the short term will remain near to below normal
and there won`t be too much day to day fluctuation in the daytime
highs or overnight lows. The warmest region will be the Northern
Sacramento Valley ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s with
Saturday being the peak heat. For the Central Sacramento Valley
southward into the Northern San Joaquin Valley (including the Sac
Metro area) highs will be upper 80s to mid 90s...again, with
Saturday being the hottest day. The Delta range of max temps will
generally be mid 70s to mid 80s thanks to the cooling Delta
Breeze. Mountain areas will have highs in the 70s and 80s except
down into the 60s along the Sierra Crest. Overnight lows for the
valley will be fairly persistent in the 60s except low 70s across
thermal belts in the foothills. JBB
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
No significant changes to the extended forecast. An upper level
trough offshore from the CA coast will bring a dry southwest flow
across Northern California. Temperatures gradually increase and
dry weather dominates as the four corners ridge strengthens aloft.
Daytime highs will be near normal on Wednesday and on Thursday,
looks like most of our CWA finally goes above normal by a degree
or two. JBB
&&
.Aviation...
A swath of marine stratus has extended into the Delta south of
Travis and is expanding eastward to Rio Vista as of 1030z. Bases
of 012 and tops around 025 according to OAK sounding from 17/12z,
KSUU METAR, and Bodega Bay coastal profiler.
Expect ST to develop at KMHR by 12z, and these clouds are
expected to expand to foothills and over toward KSAC by 13z. Only
30% chance cigs make it to KSMF.
TS expected later today over mountains. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
748 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CT AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP ALONG
THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD TONIGHT AS THE BULK OF
THE RAIN REMAINS OFFSHORE.
LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY OF THE SHOWERS OVER PA WILL MAKE ITS
WAY TO OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO
DROP AND DO NOT THINK MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...DESPITE
WHAT THE HRRR MAY BE SHOWING. IN ADDITION...EARLIER SOUNDINGS AT
THE AIRPORTS SHOWED A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING SUNDAY.
VFR.
E WINDS UNDER 10 KT BACKING NE OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WIND SHIFTING
E AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT EARLY AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JP
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1235 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO INCREASE POP CHANCES UP AND DOWN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT INLAND AS THE E COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
WWD. FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT FORMED ALONG
CONVERGENCE LINE JUST BEFORE 11 AM BUT THIS CONVERGENCE FEATURE
MORPHED INTO MORE SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR
SO ANY FURTHER FUNNEL CLOUD IS UNLIKELY ATTM.
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO MODERATE
BASED ON AREA REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...INCLUDED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NE FL COASTAL TAFS WITH
BRIEF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1020 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC
RIDGE LOCATED N OF THE AREA. NE TO E FLOW EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
LOW LEVELS BUT WINDS ALOFT TURN TO W TO NW ABOVE 6000 FT.
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A CONVERGENT CLOUD LINE ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS INTO DUVAL COUNTY AND NEAR ST JOHNS.
BASED ON THIS AND LATEST RAP MODEL HAVE PLACED IN SOME 15-20%
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NE FL. STILL THINK ONLY LOW CHANCE (20%) IS WARRANTED FOR
THE INLAND AND WESTERN ZONES AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A MINOR
TWEAK TO EXTEND POPS A BIT FURTHER S INTO MARION COUNTY AS AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. THERE MAY ONLY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR A TSTM TO DEVELOP
GIVEN THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE PER TLH AND JAX SOUNDINGS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY THIS EVENING AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MAINLY SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA
SO A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY N OF I-10. TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE MID
90S WELL INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CU FIELD ALONG THE COASTAL NE FL AREA WITH
OCNL BROKEN MVFR CIGS WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND TIL ABOUT 17Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES TODAY...WHICH IS TOO LOW TO PLACE ANY PRECIP IN AT
THE GNV TAF SITE.
&&
.MARINE...NELY WINDS NEAR 10 KT TODAY WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO PLACE IN AN ISOLD SHOWER CHANCE OVER NE FL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH SURF OF LESS THAN 2 FT. HOWEVER...
SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN RIPS COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE LAST 12-24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 70 89 71 / 10 10 50 50
SSI 87 76 86 76 / 10 0 20 30
JAX 90 72 90 73 / 10 0 40 40
SGJ 88 74 88 75 / 20 0 30 30
GNV 93 71 91 72 / 10 10 40 40
OCF 93 71 93 72 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/STRUBLE/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
812 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM DO HAVE THE PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED...BUT EVEN THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED AROUND TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND THE MODELS HAVENT HANDLED THIS TREND
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METRO. THE EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A WET PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE TROUGH
AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY A DISTURBANCE IS NOTED PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND SPARKING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
ATHENS LINE... WITH MAINLY SPOTTY SHOWERS NORTH OF THAT LINE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TN WITH A WARM FRONT
NEAR A RMG TO ATL TO AGS LINE... AND A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE WARM
SECTOR IS WINNING THE BATTLE AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. BEGINNING TO
SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR... YET
STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE SHOWING BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE COOL WEDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A MOIST TROPICAL
AIR MASS WITH 1.8+ PW`S WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THINK THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH BY 9 PM THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING BLOCKED OVER AL ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS SUGGESTS EVEN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT
MEANDERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA DURING MAX HEATING.
ALTHOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL ON SUNDAY... INCREASING
UPPER SUPPORT DURING MAX HEATING AND A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ALL
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS
FLOOD PRONE LOW AREAS. SPC IS SHOWING ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 9-10 PM SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL HAS WARRANTED LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS... AND WARMER LOWS. A
MAV AND MET BLEND WITH SOME TWEAKS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW.
39
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE DAMPING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT...BUT WITH MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL IN PLACE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON. THE GENERAL UPPER WEAKNESS
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TRIES TO PUSH EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPPING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IMPEDES THE PROGRESS OF THE HIGH BUT ALSO
DRAGS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FROM THERE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH
SHARPER UPPER TROUGH...AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A GENERAL
COMPROMISE BUT DID START TO REDUCE POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION. WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE-LIKE
STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE LARGER THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THE
QPF WILL BE FAIRLY SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...NOT REALLY
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
AREAS UNDER INDIVIDUAL STORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION.
01
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT ATL THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO. LOW CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SETTLE IN THE LIFR RANGE. LOW
CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP AXIS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE SOUTH OF ATL...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY. WEDGING TRIES TO REINFORCE TONIGHT
WITH EASTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY TRY AND GO A LITTLE W OF SOUTH
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT THEM ON THE EAST SIDE FOR NOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 85 71 87 / 50 50 50 50
ATLANTA 70 83 70 86 / 50 50 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 63 79 65 81 / 40 50 40 40
CARTERSVILLE 68 84 69 87 / 40 40 30 30
COLUMBUS 71 86 72 90 / 60 50 40 50
GAINESVILLE 67 83 71 85 / 50 50 40 50
MACON 70 85 70 86 / 70 60 50 50
ROME 69 84 70 88 / 40 40 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 69 84 69 87 / 50 50 40 50
VIDALIA 71 87 72 88 / 70 60 60 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE NORTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY. AS A RESULT...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NC/SOUTHERN VA/MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD FARTHER INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST 12Z CHS
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES NICELY THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN ADDITION TO
A WELL-DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL ALSO NOTE THE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OVER 1 INCH AND
THE CONTINUATION OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS THEY MIX OUT DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. EVEN THOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS POPCORN-TYPE
CONVECTION FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED AIR MASS STATUS AND AFTER AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE LATEST SKEW-T FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRONGLY STAYS IN PLACE WITH VERY LOW CAPE...MARGINAL
LI...AND OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THUS...AM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH WILL NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS...MAINLY IN GA...AS A DISTURBANCE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF STATES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/SFC LOW OFFSHORE.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 INLAND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO GET MORE UNSETTLED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A PATTERN NOT THAT TYPICAL FOR LATE
JULY. IN ANY EVENT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ENHANCED SUNDAY...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT SEEMS TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THERE WILL BE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION INLAND BUT
BY THURSDAY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND THUS CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER AT THE
COAST. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST INLAND BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS STRENGTH AND THUS RAIN CHANCES AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKLY WEDGE IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD MOVE CLOSE TO KSAV...BUT GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED VCSH ATTM. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS TO
THE WEST...COURTESY OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF COAST STATES.
EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST WITH A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT. TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT CHS TOWARD
SUNRISE...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE AROUND 13-15KTS...WHICH MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AS OF 1000 AM...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
AS THE WATERS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT/SFC LOW
OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE AOB 15 KTS...BUT WILL SEE THIS DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT GIVEN
LARGER INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST FETCH.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL ENHANCEMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST HOWEVER DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
MOSTLY 3 FT OR LESS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RJB.CHS
LONG TERM...RJB.CHS
AVIATION...DL.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM/RJB.CHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
242 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND LAKE
BREEZES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL UNDERCUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 21-22C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN 90S IF
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRECIP CHANCES CREEP UP MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY GENERATING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE QPF OUTPUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MODEST HIGH BASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT LIKELY
WOULDNT SUPPORT ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
NOD TO THE GFS BUT WOULD THEN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR LOCALLY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED AS H85 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
OF AROUND 23C. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LOCATED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A CONCERN TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN H4 AND H6...BUT SHOULD SKY COVER END UP BEING LESS
THAN FORECAST MIGHT HAVE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO
THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR AROUND MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LOCALLY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THERE REMAIN MODEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME
COOLER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT/VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPEEDS LOOK SLOW TO
COME UP THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...LAKE INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TURNING WINDS EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
IL SHORE AND SUBSEQUENTLY AT ORD/MDW DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS MAY COME UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
THOUGH ANY GUSTS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ETC. GYY WILL LIKELY
TURN MORE EAST OR EVEN NE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL EASE AT ALL SITES WITH
NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING THEN LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM NEAR MDW BACK TO VYS AND POINTS
SOUTH. SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING
WITH BASES LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH IN SHIFT TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND MEDIUM IN TIMING. MEDIUM THAT 10 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY OCCUR WITH SHIFT.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE A WEAK GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO SET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY WITH THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL LOWS LOOKING TO BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MODULATED UP AND DOWN BY THE PASSING LOWS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1048 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Some mid level clouds lingering as a result of a quick shortwave
rippling through the region. For the most part, forecast is doing
well. Temps on track to be a couple degrees above yesterday and
some fair weather clouds expected to cover the sky later this
afternoon. Warm and weak winds overall. No updates anticipated.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours in central
and eastern IL.
A shortwave trough moving into the lower Ohio Valley from the
Ozarks area will continue to spread BKN cirrus across central and
southern IL this morning. Many of the short range models,
including the SREF, HRRR and NAM12 are indicating the development
of SCT cumulus by late morning/toward noon. Low level
moisture/favorable weak lift should be enough for BKN VFR cumulus
to form early this afternoon particularly from KBMI to KCMI. This
may extend as far west as the IL River valley, but will hold off
mention at KPIA for now as confidence is lower here.
The cumulus field is expected to go through its typical diurnal
dissipation around dusk. Some of the numerical guidance is hinting
at MVFR visibility toward daybreak Saturday as low level moisture
increases enough to possibly produce some light fog. Held off on
mention in the TAFs for now and will monitor for future forecasts.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
856 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
242 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND LAKE
BREEZES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL UNDERCUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 21-22C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN 90S IF
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRECIP CHANCES CREEP UP MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY GENERATING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE QPF OUTPUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MODEST HIGH BASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT LIKELY
WOULDNT SUPPORT ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
NOD TO THE GFS BUT WOULD THEN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR LOCALLY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED AS H85 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
OF AROUND 23C. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LOCATED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A CONCERN TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN H4 AND H6...BUT SHOULD SKY COVER END UP BEING LESS
THAN FORECAST MIGHT HAVE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO
THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR AROUND MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LOCALLY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THERE REMAIN MODEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME
COOLER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT/VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPEEDS LOOK SLOW TO
COME UP THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...LAKE INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TURNING WINDS EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
IL SHORE AND SUBSEQUENTLY AT ORD/MDW DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS MAY COME UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
THOUGH ANY GUSTS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ETC. GYY WILL LIKELY
TURN MORE EAST OR EVEN NE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL EASE AT ALL SITES WITH
NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING THEN LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM NEAR MDW BACK TO VYS AND POINTS
SOUTH. SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING
WITH BASES LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH IN SHIFT TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND MEDIUM IN TIMING. MEDIUM THAT 10 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY OCCUR WITH SHIFT.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE A WEAK GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO SET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY WITH THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL LOWS LOOKING TO BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MODULATED UP AND DOWN BY THE PASSING LOWS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours in central
and eastern IL.
A shortwave trough moving into the lower Ohio Valley from the
Ozarks area will continue to spread BKN cirrus across central and
southern IL this morning. Many of the short range models,
including the SREF, HRRR and NAM12 are indicating the development
of SCT cumulus by late morning/toward noon. Low level
moisture/favorable weak lift should be enough for BKN VFR cumulus
to form early this afternoon particularly from KBMI to KCMI. This
may extend as far west as the IL River valley, but will hold off
mention at KPIA for now as confidence is lower here.
The cumulus field is expected to go through its typical diurnal
dissipation around dusk. Some of the numerical guidance is hinting
at MVFR visibility toward daybreak Saturday as low level moisture
increases enough to possibly produce some light fog. Held off on
mention in the TAFs for now and will monitor for future forecasts.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
242 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND LAKE
BREEZES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL UNDERCUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 21-22C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN 90S IF
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRECIP CHANCES CREEP UP MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY GENERATING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE QPF OUTPUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MODEST HIGH BASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT LIKELY
WOULDNT SUPPORT ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
NOD TO THE GFS BUT WOULD THEN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR LOCALLY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED AS H85 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
OF AROUND 23C. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LOCATED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A CONCERN TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN H4 AND H6...BUT SHOULD SKY COVER END UP BEING LESS
THAN FORECAST MIGHT HAVE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO
THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR AROUND MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LOCALLY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THERE REMAIN MODEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME
COOLER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 10 KT MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CALM IN SOME
AREAS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6-10 KT RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL HELP TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO...INCLUDING ORD/MDW...AND MORE
EASTERLY NEAR THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA/GYY. SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LAKE
INFLUENCE TAKES OVER. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE IN A EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 10 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE A WEAK GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO SET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY WITH THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL LOWS LOOKING TO BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MODULATED UP AND DOWN BY THE PASSING LOWS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period (06z Sat). High
pressure continues to edge further off to our east late this evening.
Weak low and mid level flow present over the area with the clouds that
formed during peak heating today very slowly decreasing in areal
coverage. In addition, band of cirrus clouds streaking east across
our area as a weather system tracks well to our south. Little change
from the previous forecast with scattered mid level clouds around
most of the night based off the latest RAP forecast soundings. Cirrus
shield also holding on most of the night as well. Cumulus field should
build again during peak heating on Friday with bases in the 4000-6000
foot range with the clouds dissipating at or just after sunset.
Surface winds will remain light and variable tonight and then become
southeast at 6 to 10 kts on Friday.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1235 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. NOT BAD FOR WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
OUR WARMEST TIME OF THE YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BASICALLY NO MOVEMENT OF THE ISOBARS OVER
THE AREA...I.E. EXTREMELY QUIET WEATHER. SOME CU WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EVE AGAIN AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT EVES. THERE MAY BE
SOME PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BUT ALL IN ALL SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY OR NOT LONG AFTER SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
CARBON COPY WITH A LAKE BREEZE AGAIN ADVANCING INTO LAKE ADJACENT
COUNTIES. A CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
MORE GROWTH TO SOME CU ON ANY AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE SUCH AS
THE LAKE BREEZE...JUST DUE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
NEARED. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY STRAY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING.
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EASE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS STATES. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OF INTEREST INCLUDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER-MID 80S THIS
WEEKEND AND MID-UPPER 80S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER 90S. LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY THAT PROGRESSES
INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE JET PATTERN WITH ANY PARENT LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.
THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE SO JUST CONTINUE LOW CHANCE
POPS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 10 KT MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CALM IN SOME
AREAS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6-10 KT RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL HELP TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO...INCLUDING ORD/MDW...AND MORE
EASTERLY NEAR THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA/GYY. SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LAKE
INFLUENCE TAKES OVER. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE IN A EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 10 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS MAY TURN LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE WEAK
RIDGE MAY REMAIN. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1117 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Quiet weather expected to continue through tomorrow as surface
high pressure edges slowly off to our east. Latest satellite
data indicating shortwave energy over the Southern Plains with
a large cloud and rain shield associated with the feature well
to our south. Some of the mid and high level clouds will track
over parts of central and southeast Illinois overnight but the
showers and storms will not affect any of our area through
Friday. The increase in the mid and high level clouds will keep
overnight lows from dropping as low as the past few nights, but
we will still average out below normal most areas again tonight.
The current zones are in good shape, so other than the usual
minor adjustments to the early evening temp trends, no other
changes were made which would require a ZFP upate.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period (06z Sat). High
pressure continues to edge further off to our east late this evening.
Weak low and mid level flow present over the area with the clouds that
formed during peak heating today very slowly decreasing in areal
coverage. In addition, band of cirrus clouds streaking east across
our area as a weather system tracks well to our south. Little change
from the previous forecast with scattered mid level clouds around
most of the night based off the latest RAP forecast soundings. Cirrus
shield also holding on most of the night as well. Cumulus field should
build again during peak heating on Friday with bases in the 4000-6000
foot range with the clouds dissipating at or just after sunset.
Surface winds will remain light and variable tonight and then become
southeast at 6 to 10 kts on Friday.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
SHORT TERM...
A cool air mass remains over central and southeast Illinois today
although it has warmed a few degrees since yesterday. Scattered
cumulus cloud cover has developed as a result of a shallow
convective layer from around 800 to 700 mb (7000 to 10000 feet)
capped by a strong subsidence inversion. Overnight this convective
layer will dissipate with the loss of surface heating for another
cool night. Some additional high cloudiness will spread across
the area as a shortwave trough passes by to the south. Expecting
any precip with this feature to remain to the south with dry
conditions expected to continue along with a gradual warming trend
the next few days.
LONG TERM...
High pressure ridging will slowly build into the Western Plains
and Rocky Mountain areas over the weekend into next week bringing
a warming trend and increased humidity. Forecast soundings continue
to advertise a very stable/capped air mass which will be difficult
to produce any deep convection/thunderstorms. By Wednesday
disturbances propagating over the top of the ridge to the west
could potentially produce MCS activity bringing chances for
precipitation back to Illinois for the middle/later parts of next
week. Slightly cooler temperatures will likely accompany this
pattern.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS CU
FIELD WILL DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AROUND 5-8KFT. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS. THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ACRS NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
SHOULD GRAZE THE FAR WEST BUT THE LOW CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AN ISSUE WHEN LOOKING AT THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE NICELY THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DEWPOINTS
COME UP BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAIN THE SAME AS PAST FEW
DAYS...TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG
WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION THIS WEEKEND EVOLVING FROM
TRANSIENT ZONAL FLOW TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM SWRN CONUS
INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMP AND
MOISTURE REBOUND WILL REMAIN SLOW TO START THE WEEKEND WITH
SPRAWLING ATYPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STILL AFFECTING THE ERN CONUS AND
KEEPING SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW AT BAY. INITIAL SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MO VALLEY BY LATE SUN HOWEVER
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN M80S-
L90S HIGHS BY MON AND TUE...A TOUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH HEAT INDICES WELL THROUGH THE 90S AND JUST
TOPPING 100F IN SPOTS THOSE DAYS.
THIS IS ALSO THE WINDOW WHERE PRECIP CHANCES COME INTO PLAY. WHAT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THERE IS APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED INITIALLY WITH
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES LIKELY DEGRADING THE FORECAST AND NO
CONVECTION ALLOWING HI RES MODEL INPUT AT THIS TIME RANGE.
EXAMINATION OF GFS/ECMWF 310K ISENT SURFACES SHOW EITHER WEAK OR
NIL LIFT AND/OR BAROCLINICITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO ONLY TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE MENTIONED FAR NW LATE SAT NIGHT...AGAIN NE SUN
NIGHT...AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS DUE TO SIMILAR THINKING MON
NIGHT. MOST APPRECIABLE CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE OR TUE
NIGHT WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING
ARRIVES AND MODIFIES THE AIRMASS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WINDOW
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MUCAPES ARE EXTREME AND
ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT TOO HIGH IT WOULD BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN EFFICIENCY WOULD ALSO BE
QUITE ELEVATED WITH OBVIOUS HIGH LEVELS OF PWS AND HIGH WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS CONSIDERING THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEAK PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER EAST INTO WED MORNING WITH AIRMASS
MODIFYING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT STILL STAYING SEASONAL.
AFTER A BREAK AROUND THU...ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO TOP THE RIDGE
INTRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7 /FRI/.
&&
.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH ANY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
A WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD IN NEBRASKA IS ALSO ENTERING WESTERN IOWA
AND MAY AFFECT KFOD LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH
DISSIPATE THIS WITH TIME WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING HIGHER
RH VALUES ABOVE 3-4KFT...THEREFORE DONT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SEEN IN KS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT GOOD DECOUPLING THIS EVENING
SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OF AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES. STILL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WIND OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL SEE SOME 20 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS AT H8 INCREASE 1 TO 2 DEGREES TODAY
OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY. IN SPITE OF THAT...THE OFF SETTING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER THAT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT WELL.
THE SMOKE IS FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL...BUT NONE THE LESS WILL REDUCE SOLAR
INSOLATION AND WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF THE WARMING AT H8.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED THEN IT LOOKED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH TO
SPEAK OF BUT WE HAD NO POPS GOING BEFORE. SO THIS IS A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY I LEFT SATURDAY NIGHT
DRY YOU COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE WAVE WHILE THE EURO...CANADIAN AND SREF ALL
KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS OCCUR TO SEE IF THEY BRING THE WAVE
FURTHER SOUTH OR DEEPEN IT ANY. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER RIDGE-
RIDER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIP WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT JUST TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED AT
LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE I HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WE CONTINUE TO GET TEASED WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVES RIDING THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE FINALLY SWINGS
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
BEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS FOR STORMS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL DURING THIS TIME THOUGH ALOFT SHEAR IS
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS FOR
TEMPS THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE EURO IN RESPONSE TO
THE EURO HAVING THAT STRONGER WAVE COME THROUGH. THE EURO HAS
WARMEST TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH 90 BEING REACHED THEN THE REALLY DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS 90S GOING UNTIL MID WEEK AND ONLY A SLIGHT COOL OFF
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
WIT THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AND A WARM WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS ON TAP AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH ANY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
A WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD IN NEBRASKA IS ALSO ENTERING WESTERN IOWA
AND MAY AFFECT KFOD LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH
DISSIPATE THIS WITH TIME WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING HIGHER
RH VALUES ABOVE 3-4KFT...THEREFORE DONT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SEEN IN KS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT GOOD DECOUPLING THIS EVENING
SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OF AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUL 14
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATE TO FINE TUNE COVERAGE BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP). CIN REMAINS
HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A
DRYLINE OVER SE COLORADO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND ACT AS FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE. LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AS THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASING WITH NOCTURNAL JET AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
THE MOST FAVORABLE SUPPORT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY EASTWARD
03-09Z...AND SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN
COVERAGE IN NORTHERN COLORADO. I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FURTHER NORTH LINGERING THROUGH 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
I ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE 10-14Z PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHER TD VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES FROM 20Z-00Z. ON TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A SFC TROUGH WHILE
SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY (100-105) EXPECTED EAST OF THE TROUGH. WE
DO REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ACROSS THE SAME COUNTIES AS
MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
WARMEST READINGS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF HEATING TO WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16C-18C RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 100S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND CONVERGENT LINE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND
ELEVATED INHIBITION IS RATHER LOW. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER 3K J/KG CAPE ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY ECMWF/GFS
SHOW A SLUG OF 700-300MB MOISTURE EMERGING OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AT THE END OF THE DAY ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS UPPER JET DIVERGENT
SIGNATURE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE TO OUR WEST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 17C-19C PRETTY MUCH CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL.
700-300MB MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY CAPPED
PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OR IS IN THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
IMMEDIATE AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY BEST COVERAGE IS
STILL EXPECTED SOUTH OF KGLD...HOWEVER WITH GOOD INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AND SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST I WAS COMFORTABLE INCLUDING
VCTS. THERE IS A SIGNAL IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THIS RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN KMCK. AS
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT DRY AIR WILL MOVE BACK OVER KGLD
AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. KMCK MAY
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH BETTER MOISTURE LINGERING
THROUGH SUNRISE...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS POINT I AM MORE CONFIDENT IN PREVAILING 3SM VIS AT KMCK THAN
LOWER AS TROUGH POSITION WILL BE CRITICAL TO DEVELOPMENT NEAR
TERMINAL AND A SHIFT TO SW WINDS ADVECTING DRY AIR IN EARLIER WILL
ALL BUT END FOG THREAT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT LATEST VIZ
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH NORTH AND EAST
COUNTIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED FOG WORDING IN
LATEST ZONE UPDATE MENTIONING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO ON SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ULTIMATELY WORKS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
MODEL ALSO HINTS AS SOME DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS WITH BOTH
HRRR/NAM INDICATING 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE OF
1500-1800 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING OVER NW KANSAS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ONCE WORKING PAST THE FIRST 1-2
TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ALSO MOVING INTO
THE AREA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
TODAY THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER
WEST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LIFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVERHEAD. POINT SOUNDINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INDICATE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER...WITH VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF
5F AT THE LCL LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER CAPE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AT 700MB IS BEST...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPPED EAST OF THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
HWY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.
THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MIDLEVEL DEW POINTS
MOVE IN.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH LIFT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA THE DRY LINE WILL FOLLOW...STALLING JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
LIFT OVER THE DRY LINE WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO
BORDER...SO AM THINKING THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST WILL BE 1500-2500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUITABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT 100-105 ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA. ON MONDAY 850 TEMPERATURES COOL
ABOUT 3-6F ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
101. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT...60S AND LOW 70S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY SFC
TROUGH BISECTS THE AREA AND SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16-18C
AREA COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND FROM LOCAL RESEARCH
SEVERE WEATHER MINIMAL IF AT ALL.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DEAMPLIFYING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...700MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C-18C MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. A
FAIRLY STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMERGES OFF THE FRONT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA
IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND MAY HAVE A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE FORM OF
A WIND CONVERGENCE AREA DURING THE DAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARENT
QUITE AS HOT SO CAPPING MECHANISM MAY BE WEAKER AND CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 17C-19C RANGE
WHICH SHOULD REALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FINALLY FOR
FRIDAY...GFS SHOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RATHER HIGH...ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 17C PUT A LID ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KGLD BTWN 00Z AND 03Z.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMCK TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. STRATUS DECK WILL FINALLY BURN OFF COMPLETELY AT KMCK
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z TODAY WITH SKC CLEAR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GUSTING 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 8-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT LATEST VIZ
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH NORTH AND EAST
COUNTIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED FOG WORDING IN
LATEST ZONE UPDATE MENTIONING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO ON SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ULTIMATELY WORKS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
MODEL ALSO HINTS AS SOME DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS WITH BOTH
HRRR/NAM INDICATING 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE OF
1500-1800 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING OVER NW KANSAS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ONCE WORKING PAST THE FIRST 1-2
TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ALSO MOVING INTO
THE AREA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
TODAY THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER
WEST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LIFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVERHEAD. POINT SOUNDINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INDICATE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER...WITH VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF
5F AT THE LCL LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER CAPE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AT 700MB IS BEST...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPPED EAST OF THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
HWY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.
THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MIDLEVEL DEW POINTS
MOVE IN.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH LIFT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA THE DRY LINE WILL FOLLOW...STALLING JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
LIFT OVER THE DRY LINE WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO
BORDER...SO AM THINKING THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST WILL BE 1500-2500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUITABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT POSITION AND HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE. HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY. THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OF THE
LEE TROUGH. WEAK FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE POSITION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KGLD BTWN 00Z AND 03Z.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMCK TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. STRATUS DECK WILL FINALLY BURN OFF COMPLETELY AT KMCK
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z TODAY WITH SKC CLEAR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GUSTING 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 8-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
908 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT LATEST VIZ
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH NORTH AND EAST
COUNTIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED FOG WORDING IN
LATEST ZONE UPDATE MENTIONING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO ON SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ULTIMATELY WORKS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
MODEL ALSO HINTS AS SOME DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS WITH BOTH
HRRR/NAM INDICATING 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE OF
1500-1800 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING OVER NW KANSAS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ONCE WORKING PAST THE FIRST 1-2
TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ALSO MOVING INTO
THE AREA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
TODAY THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER
WEST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LIFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVERHEAD. POINT SOUNDINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INDICATE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER...WITH VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF
5F AT THE LCL LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER CAPE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AT 700MB IS BEST...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPPED EAST OF THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
HWY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.
THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MIDLEVEL DEW POINTS
MOVE IN.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH LIFT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA THE DRY LINE WILL FOLLOW...STALLING JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
LIFT OVER THE DRY LINE WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO
BORDER...SO AM THINKING THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST WILL BE 1500-2500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUITABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT POSITION AND HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE. HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY. THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OF THE
LEE TROUGH. WEAK FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE POSITION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO WHEN A
SMALL CHANGE IN CEILING HEIGHT WILL MEAN A CHANGE IN CATEGORY.
SINCE THERE IS ONLY A HUNDRED FOOT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LATEST
OBSERVATION AND THE NEXT CATEGORY WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER
CATEGORY IN THE KGLD TAF FOR THE FIRST HOUR. AFTER THAT CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEAR
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AM THINKING THE
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF
YET. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM THAT
MOVES NEAR THE TAF SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to build across the
Desert Southwest throughout the short term with an upper level long
wave trough moving through the eastern United States. Mid levels of
the atmosphere will be fairly dry with northwest winds. Towards the
surface, an area of high pressure will be located east of the CWA
allowing southerly winds to be observed across western Kansas today
through tonight. Low level clouds and possibly patchy fog will
dissipate quickly this morning from west to east leaving partly
cloudy skies by this afternoon. With sunlight actually breaking
through today, highs are progged to range from the upper 70s across
central and south central Kansas to mid 80s across the KS/CO border.
Models suggest a weak upper level shortwave to move through the
Central Rockies into the Central High Plains this evening. This may
produce a few thunderstorms across northwest Kansas, however, it
doesn`t look like these storms will make it into west central Kansas
and I have left POPs low. Partly cloudy skies are then expected
overnight with lows in the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A surface trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies
will slide east into western Kansas over the weekend period. This
surface boundary will be the main focusing mechanism for any late
day thunderstorms that may develop either on Saturday or Sunday
given the afternoon instability and any subtle upper level wave
crossing the Central High Plains. Confidence is low on timing and
track of any of these subtle upper level features so will retain
small chances for evening thunderstorms near this surface boundary
and given the expected track of any storm which may develop keep
precipitation chances mainly across far western and possibly north
central Kansas each evening. In addition temperatures should be
returning into at least the mid 90s based on the warming trend
forecast in the 850mb to 700mb level and afternoon highs based on
the mean mixing depth temperature.
The GFS and ECMWF were in a little better agreement with the nose
of an upper level jet streak moving across eastern Colorado and
western Kansas on Monday. Once again surface boundary will be in
place across western Kansas as well as late day instability. Also
given better upper level dynamics present Monday night will favor
slightly better chances for thunderstorms Monday night for much of
western Kansas. Mid level temperatures however will be warmer than
the past few days, 700mb temperatures at 00z Tuesday are forecast
to range from around +16c near the I-70 corridor to +18c near
Elkhart, so thunderstorms may be more difficult to develop across
far southwest Kansas.
An upper level high will redevelop/retrograde to Colorado/New
Mexico by mid week and any upper level system rotating around this
upper level high is currently expected to track north/northeast of
southwest Kansas. 850mb to 700mb temperatures will continue to
warm a few more degrees through mid week and the 850mb
temperatures from the GFS indicate temperatures ranging from 30c
to 34c by 00z Thursday. If the GFS verifies then highs near 100
degrees will be common across most of western Kansas. At this time
however will not go that warm given that the ECMWF indicates
slightly cooler 850mb to 700mb temperatures mid week and also
given the past rainfall this may limit the warm up.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
Southerly winds will gradually increase to around 15 knots by 18z
as a surface trough of low pressure develops across eastern
Colorado. Low level moisture will slowly erode with 06z NAM BUFR
soundings and the latest HRRR indicating VFR conditions will
develop around 14z at Garden City then between 15z and 18z at
Dodge City and Hays.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 62 89 68 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 82 62 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 85 65 93 68 / 10 10 20 30
LBL 82 63 92 69 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 79 62 90 68 / 0 0 0 20
P28 78 62 88 69 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
133 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued 1120 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to expand POPs a little farther west. Most of
the high-res models still indicate that scattered precip will be
most likely east of I-65 today, but they do show some isolated
showers/sprinkles west of I-65 as well. Reduced thunder chances to
isolated as lapse rates don`t look all that impressive for this
afternoon and the lack of heating due to clouds won`t help. Lowered
high temps over most of KY as clouds have kept most places in the
upper 60s to around 70 for much of the morning hours. Thus, think
that high temps this afternoon will range from mid 70s to around 80
over south Indiana under only partly cloudy skies to low to mid 70s
for central KY in the thick of the cloud cover.
Issued 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to bring in rain showers over south central KY
earlier than previously forecast. KY counties along the TN border
should see some where from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
rain this morning. Precipitation chances are still on track to
increase across the rest of KY this afternoon mainly east of I-65.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
An upper level trough and weak inverted sfc trough over the region
will continue to bring chances for light isld-sct rain showers to
the area. BWG and LEX will stand the best chance to see these
showers over the next 24 hrs. SDF may see an isld shower or
sprinkle as well but the main rains will remain to the south/east of
SDF. None of the anticipate shower activity is expected to cause
reduced flight conditions. However, low cigs and some light br will
become morning likely late this evening and into the overnight
hours. Expect all TAF sites to drop into the MVFR cat below 2 kft
by around 4-6Z. Conditions may drop to IFR during the early morning
hours as well but did not have enough confidence to include that in
the TAF forecast. Will need to watch cig trends downstream tonight
though. Conditions should start to improve by early tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1121 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued 1120 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to expand POPs a little farther west. Most of
the high-res models still indicate that scattered precip will be
most likely east of I-65 today, but they do show some isolated
showers/sprinkles west of I-65 as well. Reduced thunder chances to
isolated as lapse rates don`t look all that impressive for this
afternoon and the lack of heating due to clouds won`t help. Lowered
high temps over most of KY as clouds have kept most places in the
upper 60s to around 70 for much of the morning hours. Thus, think
that high temps this afternoon will range from mid 70s to around 80
over south Indiana under only partly cloudy skies to low to mid 70s
for central KY in the thick of the cloud cover.
Issued 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to bring in rain showers over south central KY
earlier than previously forecast. KY counties along the TN border
should see some where from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
rain this morning. Precipitation chances are still on track to
increase across the rest of KY this afternoon mainly east of I-65.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Mid-level moisture feed is becoming better established over the
Tennessee Valley, so expect thickening clouds with lowering ceilings
through the day. However, low-level dry air should keep conditions
VFR. Will introduce VCSH by early afternoon at BWG, and mid/late
afternoon at LEX, but without any restrictions to ceiling or vis.
SDF should remain dry with the moisture return suppressed just far
enough south and east.
With a weak surface trough parked from near BWG to near LEX
overnight, and low-level moisture continuing to increase, look for
restrictions in ceiling and/or visibility to develop toward daybreak
on Saturday. NAM is bullish as usual with the low ceiling/vis, but
the GFS actually agrees fairly closely, which is enough to draw more
attention. Will go with MVFR conditions to at least show the trend,
but IFR certainly can`t be ruled out, especially if there is decent
rainfall this afternoon. BWG should see conditions deteriorate the
most, with both ceiling and vis right on the borderline of IFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
757 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to bring in rain showers over south central KY
earlier than previously forecast. KY counties along the TN border
should see some where from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
rain this morning. Precipitation chances are still on track to
increase across the rest of KY this afternoon mainly east of I-65.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Mid-level moisture feed is becoming better established over the
Tennessee Valley, so expect thickening clouds with lowering ceilings
through the day. However, low-level dry air should keep conditions
VFR. Will introduce VCSH by early afternoon at BWG, and mid/late
afternoon at LEX, but without any restrictions to ceiling or vis.
SDF should remain dry with the moisture return suppressed just far
enough south and east.
With a weak surface trough parked from near BWG to near LEX
overnight, and low-level moisture continuing to increase, look for
restrictions in ceiling and/or visibility to develop toward daybreak
on Saturday. NAM is bullish as usual with the low ceiling/vis, but
the GFS actually agrees fairly closely, which is enough to draw more
attention. Will go with MVFR conditions to at least show the trend,
but IFR certainly can`t be ruled out, especially if there is decent
rainfall this afternoon. BWG should see conditions deteriorate the
most, with both ceiling and vis right on the borderline of IFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Mid-level moisture feed is becoming better established over the
Tennessee Valley, so expect thickening clouds with lowering ceilings
through the day. However, low-level dry air should keep conditions
VFR. Will introduce VCSH by early afternoon at BWG, and mid/late
afternoon at LEX, but without any restrictions to ceiling or vis.
SDF should remain dry with the moisture return suppressed just far
enough south and east.
With a weak surface trough parked from near BWG to near LEX
overnight, and low-level moisture continuing to increase, look for
restrictions in ceiling and/or visibility to develop toward daybreak
on Saturday. NAM is bullish as usual with the low ceiling/vis, but
the GFS actually agrees fairly closely, which is enough to draw more
attention. Will go with MVFR conditions to at least show the trend,
but IFR certainly can`t be ruled out, especially if there is decent
rainfall this afternoon. BWG should see conditions deteriorate the
most, with both ceiling and vis right on the borderline of IFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
313 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
High pressure centered over PA/NY will maintain a light, generally
easterly surface wind regime. Cirrus shield associated with an upper
disturbance over the Red River Valley has pretty well overspread
Kentucky.
Expect a gradual lowering of ceilings through the day on Friday,
with a 4-5k ft strato-cu ceiling by afternoon. Winds come around to
SE by midday but will remain solidly under 10 kt, if not 6 kt or
less. Precip chances and timing of onset are tricky due to quite a
bit of low-level dry air. Figure that the best shot for precip will
be in BWG/LEX with the better moisture feed. Have included VCSH and
high-end MVFR ceilings in BWG from late afternoon onward. Longer way
to go for any precip to get into LEX, so will keep it dry and VFR
there. Similar forecast for SDF but with higher confidence.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS
ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES...THE
FLOW SPLITS WITH A TROF NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LWR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT WITH UPPER MI STILL
UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S AS OF 08Z.
BENIGN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES
SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON THE WAY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE NCEP
HIGHRES WRF/HIGHRES ARW ALONG WITH THE GFS AND HIGH RES NAM WINDOW
GENERATE SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A HEALTHY CAP ROUGHLY AROUND
650MB/12000FT. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
UPSTREAM AT KINL/KMPX. SO...TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS CU DEVELOPING THAT WON`T BE ABLE TO
BUILD PAST THE CAP TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LWR 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW...BUT
OTHERWISE...S WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT THE MAIN COOLING
FROM THE LAKES WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
WILL STILL BE WELL W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT. WITH TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT KEEPING S WINDS STIRRING...MINS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT. AT
THE LOW END...EXPECT LOW/MID 50S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WHILE THE
W AND NCNTRL SHOULD SEE LOW/MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
QUITE A COMPLICATED MID-RANGE FORECAST AT HAND AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBAT A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF UPPER MI...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE NW WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 994 HPA SFC LOW
CURRENTLY INDUCING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. THE SFC
LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND LAY OUT A
DECAYING SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH MIXED SIGNALS ON HOW FAR EAST IT TRAVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL ONLY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF BUILDING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY...COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION DECAYS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND THE RELATIVE COLD WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING
THE STALLED SFC TROUGH A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME 850HPA TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING AND BUILDING A STOUT CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES. EITHER WAY...WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHER MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON A WEAK LLJ.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...THE WEATHER HITS A REWIND BUTTON BY MONDAY AND PRODUCES A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH THE SAME QUESTIONS AS SATURDAY. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TROUGH THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DECENT CAP AT AROUND 850HPA AND RESULTANT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...THIS CAP WOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR DECAYING PRECIP.
TEMPS ON MONDAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS THE WEST
HALF AS 850HPA TEMPS RISE TO OVER 20C. MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90F
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO DID NOT GO
WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AS
A THIRD SHORTWAVE ROUNDS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING A
1006HPA LOW OVER UPPER MI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF PLACES A
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MN...AND THE GEM FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
IL. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK THE BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP QPF THE BEST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING LOW WOULD GO WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HIGH-END SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WITH LOW-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20KT TODAY AT KIWD/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE TROF WILL FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS
PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS
ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES...THE
FLOW SPLITS WITH A TROF NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LWR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT WITH UPPER MI STILL
UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S AS OF 08Z.
BENIGN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES
SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON THE WAY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE NCEP
HIGHRES WRF/HIGHRES ARW ALONG WITH THE GFS AND HIGH RES NAM WINDOW
GENERATE SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A HEALTHY CAP ROUGHLY AROUND
650MB/12000FT. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
UPSTREAM AT KINL/KMPX. SO...TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS CU DEVELOPING THAT WON`T BE ABLE TO
BUILD PAST THE CAP TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LWR 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW...BUT
OTHERWISE...S WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT THE MAIN COOLING
FROM THE LAKES WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
WILL STILL BE WELL W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT. WITH TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT KEEPING S WINDS STIRRING...MINS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT. AT
THE LOW END...EXPECT LOW/MID 50S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WHILE THE
W AND NCNTRL SHOULD SEE LOW/MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
QUITE A COMPLICATED MID-RANGE FORECAST AT HAND AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBAT A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF UPPER MI...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE NW WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 994 HPA SFC LOW
CURRENTLY INDUCING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. THE SFC
LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND LAY OUT A
DECAYING SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH MIXED SIGNALS ON HOW FAR EAST IT TRAVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL ONLY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF BUILDING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY...COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION DECAYS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND THE RELATIVE COLD WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING
THE STALLED SFC TROUGH A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME 850HPA TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING AND BUILDING A STOUT CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES. EITHER WAY...WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHER MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON A WEAK LLJ.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...THE WEATHER HITS A REWIND BUTTON BY MONDAY AND PRODUCES A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH THE SAME QUESTIONS AS SATURDAY. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TROUGH THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DECENT CAP AT AROUND 850HPA AND RESULTANT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...THIS CAP WOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR DECAYING PRECIP.
TEMPS ON MONDAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS THE WEST
HALF AS 850HPA TEMPS RISE TO OVER 20C. MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90F
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO DID NOT GO
WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AS
A THIRD SHORTWAVE ROUNDS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING A
1006HPA LOW OVER UPPER MI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF PLACES A
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MN...AND THE GEM FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
IL. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK THE BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP QPF THE BEST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING LOW WOULD GO WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HIGH-END SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE TROF WILL FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS
PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
SMALL CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPEATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
CURRNET OBS. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT BUT IT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MODELS CONSISTENT IN FIRST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT SHOT WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY THE WEAK
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE COOL NIGHTS OF NEGLIGIBLE WIND AND LOW DEWPOINTS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF AND ISOLATED FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL LET THE
EVENING SHIFT REEVALUATE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS OVER NE MINNESOTA. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH AROUND 25
MPH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
INDICATING SIMILAR HIGHS AS TO TODAY...BUT LEANED ON THE WARMER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS IN MODEL PERFORMANCE...THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND THAT THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
AN INCREASING SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE BORDERLAND. HAVE
KEPT SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT/SAT NIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE TROUGH...WITH AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...SWEEPS ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
GULF PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING H85 TEMPS AROUND 20 C TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME. HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...AS LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG WARM NOSE AROUND H80 THAT SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES ROUND THE TOP OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE IMPULSES WILL BRING A
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH THIS FAR OUT SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO CARRY BROADBRUSH CHC POPS THROUGH EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
SOME MORNING FOG AT HIB AND HYR BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD STAY FOG FREE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20-25KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRD/HIB/INL TAFS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 78 60 80 / 0 30 30 10
INL 63 80 63 86 / 50 30 20 40
BRD 64 81 65 86 / 30 30 20 10
HYR 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 20 10
ASX 59 81 61 83 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
906 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE S/SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LEFT SOME POPS IN THE E/SE UNTIL
06Z SUNDAY AS HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY WANING. DUE TO SOME WEAK
LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE E/SE AFTER 12Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING IN THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER IN THE NW AND PWATS IN 00Z SOUNDING AT KLZK HAS
FALLEN TO NEAR 1 INCH OR LESS IN AR WHILE WE ARE STILL NEAR 1.6
INCHES AT KJAN. MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NW. THESE LOW STRATUS WILL
STICK AROUND MOST OF THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD SLIGHTLY BREAK UP IN
THE NW DELTA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
ALOFT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE N/NW DELTA TONIGHT. GFS/WRF ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE FOG IN THE DELTA WHILE THE HRRR
IS NOT AS BULLISH ON DECREASING VISIBILITIES. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
INTO THE N AND NW DELTA TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. HAD TO INCREASE
TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO LOW STRATUS STICKING
AROUND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODIFIED HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED NORTH AND SOUTH AT 01Z BUT MVFR
CIGS CONTINUED ACROSS CNTRL MS. A MIX OF CONDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE LOWEST VSBYS IN THE NW FROM GLH-GWO WHERE LIFR CONDS
COULD DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS
CNTRL MS BY 10Z SUN. IFR CIGS AND VSBY WL BE PSBL AT HBG BY 09Z SUN.
LIGHT NORTH WIND THIS EVENING WL BECOME NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. CONDS
WL IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE BY 17Z SUNDAY. CONVECTION SUNDAY WL BE
LIMITED TO THE SE. NORTH WIND 6 KTS OR LESS WL PREVAIL SUNDAY. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NEAR MERIDIAN TO NATCHEZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND
DISSIPATING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BY DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OVER ALABAMA. ONCE
AGAIN EXPECT MAINLY DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WITH PWATS
NEAR 1.0-1.1 INCHES TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS DOES BRING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ONCE AGAIN THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. CUT BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. MOS HAS BEEN TO HIGH RECENTLY AND WITH THE RECENT
RAINS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...SO WILL ATTACH THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM BELOW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING SLIGHTLY
ON THE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...BUT OVERALL THE AREA STILL LOOKS DRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THE FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER
OUT TO SEA WITH A SURFACE WAVE RIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHERE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE BOUNDARY POSITION BY TUESDAY AND HOW FAR INLAND
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND. SINCE THE EURO AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE IN
LINE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...LEANING TOWARD THOSE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND PUSHES SOME
MOISTURE AND MAY EVEN SHIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...THE NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THERE ARE SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...ONLY
EXPECTING THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY TO SWING THROUGH WITH LITTLE
IMPACT FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
DROPS INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND STALLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH RAIN TO
DEVELOP. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE POPS AND WINDS.
LOOKING FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. LOWER TO MID 90S
STILL SEEM GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING ON...EXPECTING SOME HOT DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA.
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 89 68 91 / 12 6 13 4
MERIDIAN 69 89 66 91 / 17 13 11 5
VICKSBURG 66 88 65 90 / 9 5 11 5
HATTIESBURG 72 91 70 93 / 17 24 13 14
NATCHEZ 69 88 68 89 / 12 12 10 13
GREENVILLE 64 86 66 90 / 6 4 9 4
GREENWOOD 66 87 65 91 / 9 4 10 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/22/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 917 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Weak shortwaves moving southeastward through southeastern KS, southern
MO, OK and AR will continue to bring mid-high level cloudiness to
our forecast area for the remainder of tonight. Some of the light
showers across southwestern MO may move through southeastern MO
late tonight, although the operational models keep their qpf south
of our forecast area. The latest HRRR model run does have a few
light showers moving through southeast MO, mainly between 09-12z
Friday. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer tonight than the
previous night, although still below normal.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last
night due to increased mid/high level clouds, but overnight lows
will still be around 5-10 degrees below average for mid-July.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
An upper vort max moving through MO/AR could spread some light rain
showers into southern/southeastern MO and southern/southwest IL
tonight and tomorrow, however the bulk of the precip should remain
south of the CWA. In general, a slow warming and moistening trend is
expected over the weekend with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s
by Sunday.
A strong western CONUS high pressure center is forecast to build
into the plains by the end of the weekend, placing MO/IL along the
eastern periphery of the ridge and under northwest flow aloft for a
few days during the early part of next week. Models depict a couple
of shortwaves moving through the flow which could support SHRA/TSRA,
but the predictability of such features tends to be low this far in
advance. There are some suggestions that a synoptic cold front could
move into MO/IL on Wed and provide a focus for afternoon/eve
SHRA/TSRA, but there are significant model differences regarding the
large scale pattern east of the ridge axis after 00z Mon. The 17/00z
ECMWF eventually develops a deep meridional H5 trough extending from
Lake Superior through MS while the 17/12z GFS develops a trough
closer to the East Coast. This forecast package generally follows
the recommended CR initialization for Sunday night through Thursday,
which yields seasonably warm and humid conditions.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
to prevail across the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
to prevail at Lambert.
Carney
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Here are the records for low temperature and low maximum temperature at
the primary climate sites.
LOW 7/17 LO MAX 7/17
St. Louis 57(1976) 76(1938)
Columbia 53(1976) 73(1938)
Quincy 54(1941) 72(1958)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WAS JUST E
OF THE MT BORDER AT 13Z PER SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUD COVER EXITING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
IN NW MT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT.
NEW WRF SHOWED SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
AND NE BIG HORNS BY 00Z TONIGHT. 09Z SREF HAD POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIL AND W. MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH-BASED PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HAVE PULLED EASTWARD EXTENT OF POPS
BACK TOWARD KBIL BASED ON THE ABOVE AFTER 21Z. ANY STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BASED ON THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE. POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED SAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKED GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN KBHK A LITTLE DUE TO RAP SOUNDING MIXING
PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MT. AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS NOTED AT JUDITH GAP
AT 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF GLASGOW NOW.
GREATER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM IN OUR CENTRAL OR EAST
PARTS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z OR SO. INDEED THERE IS A WEAK CELL
SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR IN NORTHERN MUSSELSHELL AT 0730Z.
WIND SHIFT AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT A NWLY BREEZE BY AROUND SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST. THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SEE THE FEATURE ON
WATER VAPOR IN NORTHERN WA NOW. HAVE PAINTED AN ISOLD POP FROM
21-24Z OVER OUR MTNS AND IN CENTRAL PARTS...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW EXPECTED AS SFC PRESSURE BULGE SETTLES OVER
EASTERN MT. OTHERWISE...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF PV WARRANTS ISOLD POPS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE NON-SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS PER
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAX OUT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MOST AREAS...WITH
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFFSETTING THE COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS OUR EAST...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS WE PULL IN DRIER AIR IN
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C
ALONG WITH INCREASED DOWNSLOPING/MIXING SHOULD GET US WELL INTO
THE 90S ON SATURDAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...BUT SMOKE COULD ALSO BE A PLAYER HERE. HAVE TWEAKED
WINDS AND TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW.
AS WE CREEP EVER SO CLOSER TO A FIRE SEASON...SATURDAY WILL BE OF
INTEREST DUE TO THE HOT TEMPS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS
AND A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW ENERGY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL COME FROM JET COUPLING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURN ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY AS BOTH
THE GFS/EC PULL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EXPECTED. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AT 15Z.
LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY NW WIND FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY UNDER HAZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AROUND THE BIG HORN MTNS AND
KSHR. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 062/094 063/094 063/091 061/094 065/094 061/085
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
LVM 090 054/091 055/090 055/085 054/091 056/088 051/085
2/T 20/N 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
HDN 092 060/096 058/096 061/093 060/096 065/097 061/086
1/B 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
MLS 090 064/095 065/094 065/094 064/094 069/097 063/086
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
4BQ 091 062/094 062/094 063/094 062/095 067/097 063/085
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
BHK 089 061/092 062/092 062/093 061/091 064/094 061/084
1/N 22/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
SHR 088 057/092 056/091 058/090 056/092 061/094 057/084
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
911 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WAS JUST E
OF THE MT BORDER AT 13Z PER SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUD COVER EXITING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
IN NW MT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT.
NEW WRF SHOWED SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
AND NE BIG HORNS BY 00Z TONIGHT. 09Z SREF HAD POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIL AND W. MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH-BASED PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HAVE PULLED EASTWARD EXTENT OF POPS
BACK TOWARD KBIL BASED ON THE ABOVE AFTER 21Z. ANY STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BASED ON THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE. POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED SAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKED GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN KBHK A LITTLE DUE TO RAP SOUNDING MIXING
PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MT. AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS NOTED AT JUDITH GAP
AT 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF GLASGOW NOW.
GREATER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM IN OUR CENTRAL OR EAST
PARTS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z OR SO. INDEED THERE IS A WEAK CELL
SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR IN NORTHERN MUSSELSHELL AT 0730Z.
WIND SHIFT AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT A NWLY BREEZE BY AROUND SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST. THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SEE THE FEATURE ON
WATER VAPOR IN NORTHERN WA NOW. HAVE PAINTED AN ISOLD POP FROM
21-24Z OVER OUR MTNS AND IN CENTRAL PARTS...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW EXPECTED AS SFC PRESSURE BULGE SETTLES OVER
EASTERN MT. OTHERWISE...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF PV WARRANTS ISOLD POPS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE NON-SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS PER
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAX OUT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MOST AREAS...WITH
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFFSETTING THE COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS OUR EAST...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS WE PULL IN DRIER AIR IN
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C
ALONG WITH INCREASED DOWNSLOPING/MIXING SHOULD GET US WELL INTO
THE 90S ON SATURDAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...BUT SMOKE COULD ALSO BE A PLAYER HERE. HAVE TWEAKED
WINDS AND TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW.
AS WE CREEP EVER SO CLOSER TO A FIRE SEASON...SATURDAY WILL BE OF
INTEREST DUE TO THE HOT TEMPS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS
AND A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW ENERGY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL COME FROM JET COUPLING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURN ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY AS BOTH
THE GFS/EC PULL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EXPECTED. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AT 15Z.
LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY NW WIND FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY UNDER HAZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AROUND THE BIG HORN MTNS AND
KSHR. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 062/094 063/094 063/091 061/094 065/094 061/085
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
LVM 090 054/091 055/090 055/085 054/091 056/088 051/085
2/B 20/N 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
HDN 092 060/096 058/096 061/093 060/096 065/097 061/086
1/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
MLS 090 064/095 065/094 065/094 064/094 069/097 063/086
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
4BQ 091 062/094 062/094 063/094 062/095 067/097 063/085
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
BHK 089 061/092 062/092 062/093 061/091 064/094 061/084
1/N 22/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
SHR 088 057/092 056/091 058/090 056/092 061/094 057/084
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND COLD FRONTS WILL BE WEAK PRESENTING MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE IDAHO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONVECTION...SKIES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
ENTIRE AREA STILL CAPPED.
FOR TONIGHT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS YET THIS AFTERNOON COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY TO SLIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. THE CONCERN WITH HOW LONG
ANY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LACK IN
FORCING AS THERE ISN/T A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH FOR ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FORCING. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA SO THINKING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE NAM AND THE RAP BOTH INDICATE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT NEITHER PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND AFTER BEING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHOWS SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z.
BIAS WOULD BE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR LATE EVENING AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER MODELS DID POORLY WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO...WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST BRINGING WARMER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 700MB...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASE TO 15-17C BY 00Z MONDAY WHEREAS RAOB DATA
FROM THIS MORNING /19.12Z/ SHOWED TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AT 10-12C.
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SO
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM EFFICIENTLY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GIVES HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN WITH REACHING THESE LEVELS OF
HEAT WILL BE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST AREAS WHICH WON/T HELP THE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THOSE LEVELS. BUT...SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
FULL MIXING WOULD BRING HIGHS TO 105 IN PLACES. THINK THIS IS TOO
HIGH AND WHEN LOOKING AT SREF PLUMES THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. KEPT THE FORECAST VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS SO KEPT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KIML TO KLBF TO KANW LINE. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BRING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 15 PERCENT. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO VALUES BEING RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD OF 100 DEGREES
ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REACHING THESE VALUES.
AS MENTIONED SOME PLACES MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP NEAR 15
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
DESPITE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...DON/T ANTICIPATE FIRE DANGER
GETTING TO A CRITICAL LEVEL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DRYLINE SURGE SUNDAY CONTINUES
MONDAY. A SLIGHT RETREAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS SD MONDAY SHOULD MOVE IT BACK EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CA THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY SETTING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE AFTN OR AT NIGHT
AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED AND OPERATE ABOVE 700 MB.
HEAT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100
AND HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY FOR HIGHS
90 TO 95. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED AND DRY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BACKS IN AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETREATS WEST. THIS SHOULD SET UP A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THIS ANCHORS THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRAWS COOLER AIR
WEST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. IN TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THE FCST AREA ALONG ABOUT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTL
CANADA.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT THE SIGNAL THE
MODELS GIVE IS DRY OWING TO WARM AIR ALOFT EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY STRATUS
WILL REFORM THROUGH THE NORTH PLATTE AREA AND THEN STREAM NORTH
THOUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TOWARDS VALENTINE AS IT HAS DONE THE
LAST 4 MORNINGS. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CIGS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED WITH LATER FORECASTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1029 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS AT KEKO
AND KWMC AS THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH LIMITING
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ALSO WENT AHEAD REDUCE CONVECTION AT KTPH AS
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATION. NO CHANGES
AT KELY WHICH SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 729 AM /
SYNOPSIS...AS SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE NORTHERN NEVADA...MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...CANCELING RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION COVERAGE FROM
GFS...EURO...NAM...AND HRRR ALL INDICATE MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF
CELLS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED
ENTITIES...HAVE AGREED TO CANCEL THE WARNING. UPDATED FWF OUT SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 212 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STRIKING NW THROUGH NEVADA. UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN OREGON AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES PULL IN CONTAMINATED AIR.
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTH
AS A WEAK LOW FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP DISPERSE SOME OF THE
SMOKE UP NORTH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHEST VALUES CENTRALIZED
ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 50 CONVERGENCE ZONE. THUS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA COULD BE GOOD RAIN-PRODUCERS
WHEREAS UP NORTH...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION WILL RECUR TO AFFECT
ALL ZONES ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER COULD BE MERELY ISOLATED VS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY STILL SEE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. GFS/EURO/DGEX AGREE
ON TIMING/ORIENTATION OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO INTERIOR
WEST AFTER TUESDAY 00Z. BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST HIGH WILL ENABLE MOSTLY WET CONVECTION OVER
LARGE PORTION OF EAST/NORTH/CENTRAL NEVADA. AS JET STREAK ENTERS
FROM SOUTHWEST AND DRIVE QUICK SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...AIRMASS
WILL DRY QUICKLY. ADDED AREAS SMOKE TO NORTHERN NEVADA 06Z-18Z
SUNDAY UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND TENDS TO DRIVE IT OUT.
REMAINDER OF LONG RANGE FORECAST LOOKS DRY. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA...EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUNSHINE FOR ADDED WARMTH.
AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. KWMC...EXPECTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TENDING TO WESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA.
KEKO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WESTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA. KELY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WESTERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS. KTPH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WITH STORMS. VICINITY STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND ALL FIRE ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED. SOME
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER A SURGE OF INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENOUGH TO VALIDATE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING...ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 469 AND 470. EASTERN
FIRE ZONE 467 COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
EAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE MOIST AIR. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ALL NORTHERN FIRE ZONES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLILITY MOVING FURTHER NORTH. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE WET.
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
98/85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
729 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE NORTHERN NEVADA...MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...CANCELING RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION COVERAGE FROM
GFS...EURO...NAM...AND HRRR ALL INDICATE MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF
CELLS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED
ENTITIES...HAVE AGREED TO CANCEL THE WARNING. UPDATED FWF OUT SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 212 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STRIKING NW THROUGH NEVADA. UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN OREGON AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES PULL IN CONTAMINATED AIR.
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTH
AS A WEAK LOW FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP DISPERSE SOME OF THE
SMOKE UP NORTH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHEST VALUES CENTRALIZED
ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 50 CONVERGENCE ZONE. THUS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA COULD BE GOOD RAIN-PRODUCERS
WHEREAS UP NORTH...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION WILL RECUR TO AFFECT
ALL ZONES ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER COULD BE MERELY ISOLATED VS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY STILL SEE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. GFS/EURO/DGEX AGREE
ON TIMING/ORIENTATION OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO INTERIOR
WEST AFTER TUESDAY 00Z. BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST HIGH WILL ENABLE MOSTLY WET CONVECTION OVER
LARGE PORTION OF EAST/NORTH/CENTRAL NEVADA. AS JET STREAK ENTERS
FROM SOUTHWEST AND DRIVE QUICK SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...AIRMASS
WILL DRY QUICKLY. ADDED AREAS SMOKE TO NORTHERN NEVADA 06Z-18Z
SUNDAY UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND TENDS TO DRIVE IT OUT.
REMAINDER OF LONG RANGE FORECAST LOOKS DRY. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA...EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUNSHINE FOR ADDED WARMTH.
AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. KWMC...EXPECTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TENDING TO WESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA.
KEKO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WESTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA. KELY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WESTERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS. KTPH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WITH STORMS. VICINITY STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND ALL FIRE ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED. SOME
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER A SURGE OF INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENOUGH TO VALIDATE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING...ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 469 AND 470. EASTERN
FIRE ZONE 467 COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
EAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE MOIST AIR. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ALL NORTHERN FIRE ZONES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLILITY MOVING FURTHER NORTH. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE WET.
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EARLY EVENING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG...PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORM
MOTION WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z THOUGH 06Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS
POSSIBLE BUT BEST CHANCES ARE NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING KCVS
BUT LOW CIGS NOT INCLUDED AT KTCC AND KROW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR
MONDAY... THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THEN MOVE TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH FEWEST STORMS NORTHWEST AND BEST
CHANCES CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN
QUITE A WHILE. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE INTRODUCED BY GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS VERIFY THE FOCUS OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVITY INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SERVE AS A SIGN OF THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 20Z LAPS DATA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS THERE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ABQ METRO.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER WAVE OVER THE BAJA WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO
TOWARD SW NEW MEXICO. GFS/NAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FOCUSES THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. THE H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO 596DM BY MONDAY SO COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
VERY HOT TEMPS ARE THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE H5
HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 600DM AND 700MB TEMPS APPROACH +21C. MANY AREAS
IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WILL AVERAGE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...ESPECIALLY
FROM ABQ SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DESPITE FEWER STORMS STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHERE EVER A
STORM FIRES UP.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN ON WHERE THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SHOWS
THE HIGH STAYING MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WOBBLES TO THE WEST. THIS STILL ALLOWS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FORMER EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS S CA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CIRCUMAMBULATE AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE MOIST NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP UNDER THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER NM WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY THE 500 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...CAUSING A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND NW AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH TRAVELS NORTHWARD OVER S CO ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE S AND SE.
AN UPPER LOW PASSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NW US BORDER WITH
CANADA IS FORECAST TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE FORM
OF A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. READINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES BEGINNING TUESDAY
IN THE EAST...BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. HAINES INDICES OF 5
SHOULD BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR VALUES OF 6 FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, AND IT LOOKS
PROBABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO (OR BELOW) THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS.
OUR DATABASE SHOWS SIMILAR PROFILES HAVE RESULTED IN AT LEAST
LIGHT FOG AT KELM.
6 PM UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS TROF AXIS ROTATES
INTO EASTERN NY, AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. RUC DEPICTS DECREASING
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALLOW THE POPS TO DROP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS, AND WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISLD TO SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVED OVER C NY IN ASSCTN
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVG RIGHT THRU NY/PA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WAS LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY THAT WAS
TRIGGERED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING. THIS ACVTY WILL LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN FADE FAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX PASSES
E AND THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS.
THE TROF AXIS PASSES E OF THE REGION AND HGHTS RISES..THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS NY AND PA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES
BY FRI AM. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU FRIDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY... HOWEVER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STRONG INDICATING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF CENTRAL NY. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE FINGER
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND JUST A LOW CHC POP FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND NOTHING MORE THAN LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SFC-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE WARM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LGT/VRB WIND AT MOST
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR FOG TONIGHT AT ELM WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOW WITHIN 1 DEGREE. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET
IN AFTER 08Z THEN DROPPING DOWN TO 1SM BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. BY 15Z
EXPECT JUST A FEW VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. WINDS WL BE OUT OF THE
WNW AROUND 5KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THRU SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG ELM
DURING PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
338 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OFFSHORE...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLOWLY EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS FLAT WITH NO
HINTS OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL WISPS OF CIRRUS
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION PRECLUDING THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION.
18/19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A NUMBER OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONNECTED TO PERSISTENT
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE
GULF STREAM. THE MOST PROMINENT WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE DRIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...
WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRAW
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO INFLUENCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELD OVER THE ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE H3R
MODEL WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 4KM-WRF AND RAP BRING A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS ONSHORE WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...MAINLY IMPACTING
THE BEACHES OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. PER
COLLABORATION WITH WFO NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLDEN BEACH TO BOLIVIA...WILMINGTON AND TOPSAIL ISLAND. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA LATE...BUT NOT
READY TO BRING POPS THAT FAR SOUTH JUST NOW.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CHARACTER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER-MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTH AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LATEST NAM/EUROPEAN SCENARIOS DEPICT A
REMNANT WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING/ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HOLDING
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES...HELP AFTERNOON POPS BELOW
15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE PRESS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES EJECTING
E/NE THROUGH THE REGION...A WEAKENING/STALLING COLD FRONT AND PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES POOLED OVER THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE REGIME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS...CAPPED
POPS AT CHANCE BOTH DAYS...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED. HIGH
PWATS AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
INLAND...WHERE A WEAKENING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL RESIDE. THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES WILL GOVERN POPS/TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDWEEK...PARAMETERS FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POPS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...TRIMMED
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THEN...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO SOME
DEGREE. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS...LOWERING POPS AND HIGHER
TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST
EUROPEAN SUGGESTS THAT ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...PROBABLY SUPPORTING AT LEAST CHANCE/DIURNAL POPS AND
SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IMPACTS FROM COASTAL SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KILM...KMYR AND KCRE...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND FROM SURF CITY
TO CAPE FEAR. THE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST IN THIS AREA WHERE WIND
ARE 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 4-5 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-4 FT SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR AMZ250- 252...HOWEVER BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY RANGING FROM N/NE
15 KT OR LESS WILL TRANSITION TO S/SW 15 KT OR LESS AROUND MIDWEEK.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...ST.CHS
SHORT TERM...SPR.CHS
LONG TERM...SPR.CHS
AVIATION...ST.CHS
MARINE...ST.CHS/SPR.CHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MOST OF
THIS IS STILL JUST CLOUDS BUT PRECIP WILL MAKE A QUICKER
APPEARANCE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SHOWERS TO KCLE BY 05Z. THIS MAY
BE FAST BUT DO EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NW PA BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
ABOUT THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE NEAREST LIGHTNING IS HUNDREDS
OF MILES AWAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW SO SEE NO NEED FOR A
THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SNEAK INTO THE
LOWER 60S BY 12Z AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING BUT SKIES WILL BE GRAY AND OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE GUIDANCE IS
GIVING CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A TENTH OR TWO
OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TOMORROW WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LOCALIZED. BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO...PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. BY 00Z SUNDAY...ONLY THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT FOR MORE PRECIP. THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL CHANCE MENTION IN THE EAST BUT NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK AND WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP DURING THE PERIOD BUT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE 850
MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. HOT AND HUMID BUT WITH NO TRIGGER AND 700 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C KEPT DAY DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS.
GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT SO HOLDS OFF THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO CHANCE POPS TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMING AND HOLD OFF PRECIP UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF STALLS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MOVES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. FOR NOW USED THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED BETWEEN MVFR 06Z-12Z AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT
DO NOT EXPECT TO BE WIDESPREAD SO DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LAKE WILL SET UP A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SATURDAY...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOWER
POPS THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS PRIMARY UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85...WHICH IS
WHERE WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL PRESENT A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE FOR WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THUS...KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NC PIEDMONT ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO
CHANCE LEVELS BY MID MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE BRIEFLY MENTIONED. POPS RAMP
UP SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
REDEVELOPMENT...AND ALSO FOR POSSIBILITY OF HEATING INDUCED
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. ALSO
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A
TAD HIGH...THUS LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE RAIN SOAKED NC/SC PIEDMONTS
AND FOOTHILLS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN THIS
EVENING AND THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX. THE HRRR HAS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA GOING DRY BY 23Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE OP
MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUED A QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST SE/LY
FLOW. DO BELIEVE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS
IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR COMP LOOP...HOWEVER VAD WINDS STILL
SHOW A MOIST ATL FETCH THRU 5 KFT. SO...WILL COUNT ON SCT/ISOL SHRA
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAKENING WEDGE AND TERRAIN LIFT.
THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN TOMORROW WRT COVERAGE AND CHARACTER OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHIFTED WEDGE BNDRY AND DIFF HEATING...WHILE THE
CAM/S ARE INDICATING MTN UPSLOPE -SHRA WITH PERHAPS ISOL THUNDER
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF A NE/WARD
DISPLACED WEDGE MAKES SENSE WITH THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING EAST.
HOWEVER...ALSO THINK CLOUD COVER IN LLVL MOIST ATL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...ESP EARLY ON AND KEEP MOST LOCALES TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN ISOL THUNDER...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ERN WEDGE BNDRY. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SBCAPE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS. THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO MAKE THE MAX TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS WELL. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE ENUF THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON TO
EXPECT A MODEST WARM UP HOWEVER...BUT WILL SIDE THE LOWER END
GUIDANCE LEAVING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 PM EDT SAT...A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MIGRATING
TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME NON DIURNAL FORCING IN THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO
REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN AND ATOP
THE LINGERING CAD LAYER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RATHER SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL NOSE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER TO
PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...CONTINUED SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL
RANGES ON TEMPS...AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OF
12Z WED...BIG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH
A LESS FOCUSED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. LATER IN THE DAY WED THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEATS UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2000 UP
TO 2500 NEAR THE TN BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AROUND 2000
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 IN THE EARLY EVENING THURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUPPORT OF PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT FAR SOUTH IS GREATEST ON THE GFS AS IT HAS THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE GA / FL BORDER FRI PM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS OUT THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GA AND CENTRAL SC WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AUGUSTA FRI
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MTNS WILL BE DRY OR NEAR
DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED...NEAR CLIMO
NORMALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUR...THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE I85 CORRIDOR LEADING TO MULTIPLE
WAVES OF SHRA AT THE AIRFIELD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS PREVAILED
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A 4HR TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRA. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH CURRENT LOW CIGS
TO THE WEST THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE
SOLUTIONS AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE PBL DECOUPLES. THUS
CARRIED AN IFR CIG BY EARLY MORNING LASTING THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH
PROB30 FOR POSSIBLE SHRA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BY 14Z CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS...THEN
EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. LAST GROUP CONTINUES VCSH MENTION
WITH A PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR TSRA POSSIBILITIES AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY
COVER EROSION BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH ALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CURRENT LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION TO CONTINUE AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EAST. LIKEWISE...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
RESTRICITONS. SPEAKING OF...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AND THE PBL
DECOUPLES. THEREFORE INCLUDED MENTION OF SUCH AT ALL SITES WITH THE
HEAVIER FOG RESTRICITONS BEING AT KAND...KAVL...AND KHKY WHERE VSBY
LESS THAN 1SM IS POSSIBLE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK REGARDING BOTH VSBY AND CIG. LASTLY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF POSSIBLE TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SKIES COULD IMPROVE
TO THE POINT OF ALLOWING SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXCEPT FOR AT KAVL
WHERE CHANNELING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT LOW 51% LOW 42% HIGH 89% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 58% MED 68% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 73% MED 78% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 69% LOW 55% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 57% MED 68% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 66% HIGH 81% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
810 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO AGREE
WITH MOST RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE
REDUCTIONS IN OVERALL SPREAD OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
THEREFORE ALTHOUGH LOWERED POPS....DID KEEP THEM AT LEAST HIGH END
CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED/MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN HEAVILY IMPACTED BY PASSING
SHOWERS AND SOLIDLY OVERCAST SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN THIS
EVENING AND THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX. THE HRRR HAS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA GOING DRY BY 23Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE OP
MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUED A QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST SE/LY
FLOW. DO BELIEVE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS
IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR COMP LOOP...HOWEVER VAD WINDS STILL
SHOW A MOIST ATL FETCH THRU 5 KFT. SO...WILL COUNT ON SCT/ISOL SHRA
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAKENING WEDGE AND TERRAIN LIFT.
THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN TOMORROW WRT COVERAGE AND CHARACTER OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHIFTED WEDGE BNDRY AND DIFF HEATING...WHILE THE
CAM/S ARE INDICATING MTN UPSLOPE -SHRA WITH PERHAPS ISOL THUNDER
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF A NE/WARD
DISPLACED WEDGE MAKES SENSE WITH THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING EAST.
HOWEVER...ALSO THINK CLOUD COVER IN LLVL MOIST ATL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...ESP EARLY ON AND KEEP MOST LOCALES TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN ISOL THUNDER...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ERN WEDGE BNDRY. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SBCAPE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS. THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO MAKE THE MAX TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS WELL. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE ENUF THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON TO
EXPECT A MODEST WARM UP HOWEVER...BUT WILL SIDE THE LOWER END
GUIDANCE LEAVING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 PM EDT SAT...A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MIGRATING
TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME NON DIURNAL FORCING IN THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO
REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN AND ATOP
THE LINGERING CAD LAYER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RATHER SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL NOSE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER TO
PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...CONTINUED SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL
RANGES ON TEMPS...AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OF
12Z WED...BIG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH
A LESS FOCUSED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. LATER IN THE DAY WED THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEATS UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2000 UP
TO 2500 NEAR THE TN BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AROUND 2000
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 IN THE EARLY EVENING THURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUPPORT OF PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT FAR SOUTH IS GREATEST ON THE GFS AS IT HAS THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE GA / FL BORDER FRI PM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS OUT THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GA AND CENTRAL SC WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AUGUSTA FRI
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MTNS WILL BE DRY OR NEAR
DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED...NEAR CLIMO
NORMALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUR...THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE I85 CORRIDOR LEADING TO MULTIPLE
WAVES OF SHRA AT THE AIRFIELD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS PREVAILED
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A 4HR TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRA. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH CURRENT LOW CIGS
TO THE WEST THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE
SOLUTIONS AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL AND THE PBL DECOUPLES. THUS
CARRIED AN IFR CIG BY EARLY MORNING LASTING THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH
PROB30 FOR POSSIBLE SHRA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BY 14Z CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS...THEN
EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. LAST GROUP CONTINUES VCSH MENTION
WITH A PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR TSRA POSSIBILITIES AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY
COVER EROSION BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH ALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CURRENT LOW CIGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION TO CONTINUE AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EAST. LIKEWISE...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
RESTRICITONS. SPEAKING OF...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AND THE PBL
DECOUPLES. THEREFORE INCLUDED MENTION OF SUCH AT ALL SITES WITH THE
HEAVIER FOG RESTRICITONS BEING AT KAND...KAVL...AND KHKY WHERE VSBY
LESS THAN 1SM IS POSSIBLE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK REGARDING BOTH VSBY AND CIG. LASTLY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF POSSIBLE TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SKIES COULD IMPROVE
TO THE POINT OF ALLOWING SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXCEPT FOR AT KAVL
WHERE CHANNELING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT MED 73% LOW 35% MED 74% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 63% MED 61% MED 77% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% MED 78% MED 79% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 86% MED 60% MED 79% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 63% MED 61% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 62% MED 76% HIGH 83% HIGH 98%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS PUSHED JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER MCS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WE LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TODAY DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWOFF
FROM THE MCS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE LEFT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
LARGELY AS IS AS WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY LIE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE US 59
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. AT 11Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR KLFK...KUTS...AND
KCLL. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWED THE
AIRPORT TERMINALS IN A LULL BETWEEN AN MCS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ONE TO THE EAST OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LA. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS AREA TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES TO AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO END BY 17Z. ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE EXISTS TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING FOR
KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER OVER KLBX AND
KGLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TODAY.
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
DUE TO AT LEAST SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVER THE MORE RURAL SITES.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION AND MARINE
SECTION.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER LOUISIANA SEEMED TO
HINDER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX. CLOUD TOPS
ARE STILL WARMING AND RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BENIGN. AM STILL
EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING BUT FEEL
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE INFLOW INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DECREASES AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 74 92 77 93 / 30 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 74 92 77 92 / 50 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 60 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. AT 11Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR KLFK...KUTS...AND
KCLL. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWED THE
AIRPORT TERMINALS IN A LULL BETWEEN AN MCS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ONE TO THE EAST OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LA. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS AREA TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES TO AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO END BY 17Z. ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE EXISTS TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING FOR
KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER OVER KLBX AND
KGLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TODAY.
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
DUE TO AT LEAST SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVER THE MORE RURAL SITES.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION AND MARINE
SECTION.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER LOUISIANA SEEMED TO
HINDER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX. CLOUD TOPS
ARE STILL WARMING AND RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BENIGN. AM STILL
EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING BUT FEEL
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE INFLOW INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DECREASES AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 74 92 77 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 92 77 92 / 80 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 80 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION AND MARINE
SECTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER LOUISIANA SEEMED TO
HINDER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX. CLOUD TOPS
ARE STILL WARMING AND RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BENIGN. AM STILL
EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING BUT FEEL
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE INFLOW INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DECREASES AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 74 92 77 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 92 77 92 / 80 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 80 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 74 92 77 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 92 77 92 / 80 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 80 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT SATURDAY...
REMOVED THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE NW NC MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONFIRM THAT LIGHT RAIN HAS CEASED
FOR THE MOMENT. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF
THE REGION AS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. TWEAKED QPF LOWER TO REFLECT THE CHANGE IN
POPS. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK.
AS OF 158 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER OFF TO LIGHT POPS IN
THE FAR EAST. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
RNKWRF-ARW WITH THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND HIRESW ARW
HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
LINGERING WEDGE FOR OUR AREA WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH VALUES FROM
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING CURRENTS
OVER THE CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...A DEFINITE AND PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO
TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY INLAND...AND WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...THE MODELS RETROGRADE THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
THE FLOW OVER OUR LITTLE PIECE OF REAL ESTATE...AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DEAD ALOFT...LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION OF AIR EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS TO MODIFY WITH TIME...THE JULY SUN DOING ITS THING
TO WARM US UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BECOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONLY...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP THREAT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE LESS
AMPLIFIED ECMWF...IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. FOLLOWING THE
GFS...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO
YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
THIS WEEK IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY. ANYTHING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...WEAK FORCING NOT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA
CURRENTLY GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KLWB-KDAN LINE. MOST AREAS
WERE VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY VSBYS REPORTED.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE EXPECT A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS MVFR LIGHT FOG BECOMES
MORE PREVELENT...AND CEILINGS DEVELOP AROUND THE INVERSION LEVEL.
A FEW SPOTS MAY EXPERINCE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBRAK SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
18-00Z/2PM-8PM ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...CF/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
735 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER OFF TO LIGHT POPS IN
THE FAR EAST. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
RNKWRF-ARW WITH THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND HIRESW ARW
HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
LINGERING WEDGE FOR OUR AREA WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH VALUES FROM
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING CURRENTS
OVER THE CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...A DEFINITE AND PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO
TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY INLAND...AND WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...THE MODELS RETROGRADE THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
THE FLOW OVER OUR LITTLE PIECE OF REAL ESTATE...AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DEAD ALOFT...LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION OF AIR EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS TO MODIFY WITH TIME...THE JULY SUN DOING ITS THING
TO WARM US UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BECOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONLY...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP THREAT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE LESS
AMPLIFIED ECMWF...IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. FOLLOWING THE
GFS...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO
YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
THIS WEEK IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY. ANYTHING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...WEAK FORCING NOT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA
CURRENTLY GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KLWB-KDAN LINE. MOST AREAS
WERE VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY VSBYS REPORTED.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE EXPECT A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS MVFR LIGHT FOG BECOMES
MORE PREVELENT...AND CEILINGS DEVELOP AROUND THE INVERSION LEVEL.
A FEW SPOTS MAY EXPERINCE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBRAK SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
18-00Z/2PM-8PM ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW WI
THROUGH SCNTL MN. THERE WAS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WANES...
PER THE RAP ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
FOR SUNDAY...WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES BETTER AXIS OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS/OVER THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN...SO
THINKING ANY SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS
THAT AREA LEAVING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TOPPING OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. WILL FEEL A TAD MORE HUMID
THOUGH AS DEW POINTS CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MN/CENTRAL WI. ECMWF HAS SHOWN BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL
AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKES AIM INTO OUR AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS MCS WILL TRACK. LATEST 19.12Z RUN
TAKES THE MCS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME RESPONSE/QPF-WISE...BUT NOT AS
INTENSE. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE 1000-2000J/KG...MAINLY ABOVE 850MB
WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME... PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. SO...COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES GIVEN FORWARD MOVING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TAKE THE MCS MORE INTO OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING HEAT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/WEST
CENTRAL WI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SCENARIO FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/MAINLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWERING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION. LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASS OVER KRST/KLSE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE
NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE WEAK RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN WI ONTO ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR RESIDING ALOFT. SO
FAR...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY WITH RAP BUFKIT SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS.
QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SOME PASSING CUMULUS. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS 0-1KM MLCAPE BUILDS INTO THE 600-1200J/KG RANGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. NOT
MUCH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TAIL-END
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIP ACROSS THAT AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DEFLECTED NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES UP
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH ARX FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
OTHERWISE...A BIT WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS WITH 850-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHRA/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CAP BUILDING IN THE 800-850MB
LAYER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THESE TEMPS/DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE IN
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COOLER AS THE REGION BECOMES DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AS THE MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON CLOUD BASES RANGING
FROM 4-8 KFT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILLS SUBSIDE TO 6-8 KTS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE...THAT BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...HAS NOW MOVED WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...INTO SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR HAS BEEN PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S
AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS LOW-LEVEL DRYING ALONG WITH A SWITCH IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ONE HAS ENDED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OUR
CWA THIS EVENING...AND HAS ALSO CLEARED SKIES OUT AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS QUIET WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BEYOND AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUR FURTHER...WITH THE 18Z
GFS SHOWING PWATS FALLING WELL BELOW 1 INCH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS...CURRENT GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT BKN-OVC CIGS...AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE TERMINALS EARLIER ON SAT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVERAGE
DOWN INTO THE FEW-SCT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT
KBLH...WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 115 DEGREES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...THOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. SOME
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
SE AZ AT THIS TIME. SOMEWHAT THICKER CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER FAR
ERN SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 20/04Z RANGED
FROM THE MID 40S-MID 50S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 2-6 DEGS
F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 20/00Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP
WATER VALUE WAS ABOUT 1.10 INCHES...OR NEARLY 0.30 INCH LOWER VERSUS
FRI EVENING.
AXIS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDED FROM
FAR ERN SONORA/WRN CHIHUAHUA NWD INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS JUST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW THAT MAY ENCROACH UPON FAR SERN SECTIONS
LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...20/00Z NAM AND 20/01Z RUC HRRR DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...AND AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THESE SOLUTIONS.
THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE THE REST OF TONIGHT.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SUN ARE
FORECAST TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA NEAR THE FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MEXICO BORDER
EAST OF KDUG ENDING AROUND 20/06Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUD DECKS
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 8-12K FT AGL. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST EXCEEDS RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL. THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST 110 TEMPS OF THE YEAR AND HOTTEST JULY TEMPS SINCE 2011 (110
OR GREATER OCCURRENCES ARE MOST COMMON IN JUNE BEFORE THE MONSOON
ARRIVES).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SUNDAY DOESN`T LOOK MUCH BETTER AND EVEN STARTS
TO PICK UP A BIT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WESTERN AREAS AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN ERNEST THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THE MONSOON WILL PROBABLY SPUTTER WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYS
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FRONT RANGE
THIS COMING WEEK. COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL MOISTURE SITUATION
EXPECT NEAR RECORD HEAT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THICKNESS REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND MODEL H8 TEMPS SCREAMING
FOR RECORD VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE EVENT IS AN OUTLIER SO
WE`RE BETTER SERVED WITH SOLID INDIVIDUAL MODEL ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE
OVER CONSENSUS SUITES. RAW DATA FROM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE MID WEEK HEAT PRETTY WELL...WITH MOS DATA A LITTLE LOW
DUE CLIMO INFLUENCE. WE WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 AT TIA
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BASELINE BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES HOTTER. THE MAIN FACTOR TO INTERFERE WITH THE
RECORD HEAT FORECAST AT THIS POINT WOULD BE MOISTURE...AND AS OF NOW
IT ISN`T LOOKING TERRIBLY WET BY AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SURGE...PROBABLY A STRONG SURGE...WOULD BE A GOOD FIRST GUESS AFTER
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF RECORD HEAT AS LONG AS LARGER SCALE FEATURES
DON`T INTERFERE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST-WEST AND
POSITIONED NORTH OF OUR AREA WE SHOULD BE FINE FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE. THE ECMWF EVEN SETS UP A STRONG MOISTURE FIELD THROUGH SONORA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS
SECTION
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS THE NOSE OF A 60+KT JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE WHILE ALSO
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. GRAND JUNCTION RAOB SHOWED .46 INCHES
OF PWAT YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THE NAM12 FORECAST FAIRLY WELL.
TODAY...THE NAM12 IS SHOWING AN INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON SO 2 INGREDIENTS...LIFT FROM THE JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...ARE IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES DO BECOME STEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA SO WITH ALL 3 INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...STORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE A SOLID BET. SOME SHEAR ALSO EXISTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE POP AND DROP WE`VE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO DO EXPECT SOME RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. HRRR REALLY
LIGHTING UP THE SAN JUANS WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SO HIGH POPS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH THE 60KT JET STREAK AT H3 PLAYING A ROLE.
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA RETREATS WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CAN SHIFT BACK OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS USUALLY A GOOD
POSITION TO BE PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE 4 CORNERS...BUT
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
A DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN US BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THIS JET RETREATS NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE RECYCLING
EACH DAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THIS FLATTENING WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BECOME W TO NWLY AND LIMITING THE MEAGER AMTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WERE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HOT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE FROM ABOUT 17Z WHEN
CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CU BUILD UP EXPECTED ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AND RAINSHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED BUT SOME SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS. SOME HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING 40 MPH UNDER AND
NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. PER THE NORM...INCLUDED VCTS FOR
KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH 06Z THOUGH NO AERODROMES SHOULD BE AFFECTED AFTER
03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER UT/CO TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH
500MB OR SO ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SFC RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 PERCENT AS DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CO
FIRE ZONE 200. TO THAT END...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT ZONE ON MONDAY FROM NOON TO 8PM.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS THE NOSE OF A 60+KT JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE WHILE ALSO
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. GRAND JUNCTION RAOB SHOWED .46 INCHES
OF PWAT YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THE NAM12 FORECAST FAIRLY WELL.
TODAY...THE NAM12 IS SHOWING AN INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON SO 2 INGREDIENTS...LIFT FROM THE JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...ARE IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES DO BECOME STEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA SO WITH ALL 3 INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...STORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE A SOLID BET. SOME SHEAR ALSO EXISTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE POP AND DROP WE`VE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO DO EXPECT SOME RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. HRRR REALLY
LIGHTING UP THE SAN JUANS WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SO HIGH POPS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH THE 60KT JET STREAK AT H3 PLAYING A ROLE.
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA RETREATS WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CAN SHIFT BACK OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS USUALLY A GOOD
POSITION TO BE PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE 4 CORNERS...BUT
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
A DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN US BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THIS JET RETREATS NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE RECYCLING
EACH DAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THIS FLATTENING WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BECOME W TO NWLY AND LIMITING THE MEAGER AMTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WERE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HOT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE FROM ABOUT 17Z WHEN
CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CU BUILD UP EXPECTED ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AND RAINSHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED BUT SOME SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS. SOME HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING 40 MPH UNDER AND
NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. PER THE NORM...INCLUDED VCTS FOR
KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH 06Z THOUGH NO AERODROMES SHOULD BE AFFECTED AFTER
03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER UT/CO TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH
500MB OR SO ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SFC RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 PERCENT AS DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CO
FIRE ZONE 200. TO THAT END...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT ZONE ON MONDAY FROM NOON TO 8PM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE 05Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING.
OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS. THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR CIG WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
REVEALS A BATCH OF RAIN TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM PA. GIVEN THE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KPOU-KPSF AND WATCH TRENDS. MEANWHILE...THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION AS KGFL AND KPSF /WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN/ REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS BRIEF MVFR VIS THRESHOLDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYLIGHT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
UPDATE...
WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM DO HAVE THE PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT TRENDS. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED...BUT EVEN THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED AROUND TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND THE MODELS HAVENT HANDLED THIS TREND
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METRO. THE EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A WET PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE TROUGH
AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY A DISTURBANCE IS NOTED PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND SPARKING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
ATHENS LINE... WITH MAINLY SPOTTY SHOWERS NORTH OF THAT LINE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TN WITH A WARM FRONT
NEAR A RMG TO ATL TO AGS LINE... AND A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE WARM
SECTOR IS WINNING THE BATTLE AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. BEGINNING TO
SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR... YET
STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE SHOWING BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE COOL WEDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A MOIST TROPICAL
AIR MASS WITH 1.8+ PW`S WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THINK THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH BY 9 PM THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING BLOCKED OVER AL ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS SUGGESTS EVEN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT
MEANDERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA DURING MAX HEATING.
ALTHOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL ON SUNDAY... INCREASING
UPPER SUPPORT DURING MAX HEATING AND A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ALL
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS
FLOOD PRONE LOW AREAS. SPC IS SHOWING ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 9-10 PM SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL HAS WARRANTED LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS... AND WARMER LOWS. A
MAV AND MET BLEND WITH SOME TWEAKS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW.
39
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE DAMPING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT...BUT WITH MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL IN PLACE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON. THE GENERAL UPPER WEAKNESS
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TRIES TO PUSH EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPPING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IMPEDES THE PROGRESS OF THE HIGH BUT ALSO
DRAGS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FROM THERE WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH
SHARPER UPPER TROUGH...AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A GENERAL
COMPROMISE BUT DID START TO REDUCE POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION. WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE-LIKE
STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE LARGER THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THE
QPF WILL BE FAIRLY SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...NOT REALLY
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
AREAS UNDER INDIVIDUAL STORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
YESTERDAY...EXPECT LIFR/IFR TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 12-14Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY/CIGS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WEATHER.
ATWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 71 87 70 / 50 40 40 40
ATLANTA 83 70 86 71 / 60 30 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 79 65 81 65 / 50 30 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 84 69 87 70 / 50 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 86 72 90 72 / 60 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 83 71 85 69 / 50 40 30 30
MACON 85 70 86 72 / 60 40 40 40
ROME 84 70 88 70 / 40 20 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 84 69 87 71 / 60 30 30 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 72 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
340 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
This morning water vapor satellite shows a weak wave moving across
north central Kansas at 08Z. A band of clouds developed across
Dickinson, Clay and Washington Counties in area of isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer and on the nose of moisture advection in the
850mb-700mb layer. Stratus further west across northwest Kansas and
south central and western Nebraska low stratus clouds continued to
expand, mainly across Nebraska, as the low level jet veers to the
southwest.
Today and tonight will see a transition from northwest flow aloft as
a ridge builds in from the west. The wave is not expected to develop
showers as it moves east as atmosphere is dry.
Expect the clouds to expand some and spread east through sunrise.
Forecast soundings from the RAP indicates that the clouds should
breakup/dissipate during the mid to late morning hours. Temperatures
will be on the rise today as 850mb temperatures increase into the
lower to middle 20s Celsius. Forecast soundings show that these
temperatures should mix down from around 850 mb yielding highs in
the upper 80s east to the middle 90s north central. South winds
today will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 25mph.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase across north central and
northeast Kansas. Soundings show that winds should stay up overnight
keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Have maintained mild
overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. With the upper
ridge building over Kansas this will keep any precipitation to the
north of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Monday and Tuesday periods still looking quite warm as the upper
ridge continues to build north and east into the central portions of
the CONUS and south to southwest winds persist ahead of a cold
front. Specifics of just how warm and humid surface conditions will
be remain somewhat uncertain with models differing on low level
thermal profiles in terms of how deep mixing will be and how warm
the above-surface airmass will be to mix into. Other complicating
factors include well-agreed upon cirrus in Mexico coming northeast
and into the area Monday and still small chances for elevated
convection to develop ahead of the front in increasingly moist
though still not very saturated mid level parcels. Even if precip
fails to develop, could at least see some mid cloud into much of
Tuesday before the front arrives in the afternoon. At this point,
have leaned closer to the GFS soundings with mixing not as deep as
the NAM suggests and 850-925mb temp fields warmer than then ECMWF.
Dewpoints still support heat index values several degrees above air
temps for steadily increasing likelihood of Heat Advisory levels
being reached for mainly northern and central sections.
Better and more significant thunderstorm chances come with the
front`s passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE near the
boundary likely to be around 2000 J/kg but limited shear and high
cloud bases should limit severe potential to mainly
multicell-produced downburst winds. Boundary exits Wednesday
morning for a somewhat cooler though higher relatively humid airmass
as moisture pools behind the front, though Thursday looking a bit
more comfortable as northeast winds persist. Still appears to be at
least minor convective chances as the front pushes back northeast
Thursday night into Friday, with another cold front likely moving
south into Kansas around Saturday. Models vary with just how this
may happen, but the upper ridge appears to again break down with
shortwaves dropping southeast from central Canada. Highs Friday
could again near triple digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
Vfr conditions will continue through this period as well with
good mixing overnight that will keep fog potential very low in the
terminal locations. South winds will steadily increase beyond 14z
at all sites with gusts 20 to 22 kts through 00z/20 before
decreasing to 7-8 kts aft 01z/21.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATE TO FINE TUNE COVERAGE BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP). CIN REMAINS
HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A
DRYLINE OVER SE COLORADO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND ACT AS FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE. LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AS THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASING WITH NOCTURNAL JET AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
THE MOST FAVORABLE SUPPORT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY EASTWARD
03-09Z...AND SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN
COVERAGE IN NORTHERN COLORADO. I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FURTHER NORTH LINGERING THROUGH 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
I ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE 10-14Z PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHER TD VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES FROM 20Z-00Z. ON TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A SFC TROUGH WHILE
SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY (100-105) EXPECTED EAST OF THE TROUGH. WE
DO REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ACROSS THE SAME COUNTIES AS
MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
WARMEST READINGS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF HEATING TO WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16C-18C RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 100S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND CONVERGENT LINE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND
ELEVATED INHIBITION IS RATHER LOW. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER 3K J/KG CAPE ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY ECMWF/GFS
SHOW A SLUG OF 700-300MB MOISTURE EMERGING OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AT THE END OF THE DAY ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS UPPER JET DIVERGENT
SIGNATURE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE TO OUR WEST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 17C-19C PRETTY MUCH CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL.
700-300MB MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY CAPPED
PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OR IS IN THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON TIMING/POSITION OF THIS LOW WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER TERMINAL. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS BEST FOG/STRATUS CHANCES EAST OF KGLD...SO
HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF KGLD TAF. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH NAM IS FAVORING LOW STRATUS/FOG AROUND 12Z. I
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AS LOW AS THE NAM (1/4SM) AND
COVERAGE STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY WITH KMCK
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF BETTER BL MOISTURE. I INTRODUCED A TEMPO IFR
GROUP DURING THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 11KT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD (WITH A
PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS ALONG TROUGH AXIS MORNING AND
MIDDAY)...EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ003-004-015-016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE
TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
451 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TO WHAT EXTENT
STRATUS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH FM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS THE FLOW WAS MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH SFC DPS
AVERAGING LOW/MID 60S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE ARE LOOKING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
INITIATED ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND THE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
MAIN AREA OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK WHEREAS RAP/NAM SUGGEST THE AREAS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE W/E TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OR DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 20S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
AND WILL BE NEAR 30 CELSIUS IN THE WEST. FULLY MIXED THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WITH HIGHER DPS IN PLACE...OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN OUR EAST...TO NEAR 100F IN THE WEST. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DPS IN OUR NE AND
WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER TODAY.
FARTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH DPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 PUSHING EAST WITH SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPS...AND STRATUS DOES LOOK TO ERODE QUICKER FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR 100F AND COULD SEE SOME
CU TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN AGAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. AT SOME POINT IN THIS PATTERN THE HEAT WILL TURN ON...BUT
WE NEED TO BE FREE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU BUT CHCS LOOK RATHER
SLIM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDELY-ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...THE
MOST IMMEDIATE AND CURRENTLY-PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
REVOLVES AROUND CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOONS OF FORECASTED 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHUNK OF
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO OBSERVE
AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
105-109 DEGREES. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HOT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING THAT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A
POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAIRLY-STRONGLY SUPPORTS
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR HERE THAT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS (FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS) LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY IN FACT BE OVER-DOING THE HEAT
SITUATION SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS...WHILE ITS A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT IT WILL IN FACT BE QUITE HOT ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE RECENT COOL STRETCH...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS...OR
MORE SO INTO THE MORE HAZARDOUS 105+ TERRITORY. AS A RESULT OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE COORDINATED WITH MOST SURROUNDING WFOS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW (LET
ALONE TUESDAY)...AND THUS ALLOW THE NEXT 1-2 SHIFTS TO HOPEFULLY
GAIN A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT BLAST.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THE NUMBER OF 12-HOUR PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HAS
INCREASED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE KEY WORD THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCES...AND CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TERRITORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
ALSO WHETHER OR NOT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME CAN BE OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONE MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ON ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...THE PREDOMINANTLY
SUBTLE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT) LENDS ITSELF
TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH (IF ANY) PERIODS ARE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL KEEP
OUT A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BARELY CLIPS SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
LOW-END 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ON BOTH THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS.
ALTHOUGH NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY THIS WAY BY ANY MEANS...ONLY 3 OF
THE 11 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF SLIGHT
POPS: WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FRIDAY DAYTIME AND SATURDAY DAYTIME.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN
MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING-LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BUT GENERALLY REMAINING CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
GENERALLY 14-16C EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD LARGELY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY TO ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DEPICTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS...ECMWF AND 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...AM
LARGELY DISCOUNTING THE 00Z/06 NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE QPF DURING THE DAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
OVERDONE IN RECENT WEEKS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LET THAT
RIDE FOR NOW IN CASE SOMETHING DOES MANAGE TO POP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT HOURS AS HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS DRY
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT STORM POTENTIAL
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HELPING USHER IN HOTTER AIR BUT
POTENTIALLY ALSO ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HEAT INDEX
SITUATION WAS LARGELY DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL HIGHS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE UPPER 90 AND MORE
SO 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
MORE OVER COLORADO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA TO MUCH MORE NORTHERLY VERSUS WESTERLY...AND BRINGS THE LOCAL
AREA PRONE TO SOME FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BISECT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE NORTH OF
IT. DESPITE THIS FRONT MOVING IN...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND HAVE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
90S NORTH TO 100-102 AGAIN IN KS ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY
RESULT IN OVERALL-HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN
MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. AS FOR POPS...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PASS THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT MIGHT RETROGRADE BACK
SOUTHWEST A BIT TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. KEPT THE DAY VOID OF
POPS...BUT KEPT WED NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB
CWA AS INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THESE POPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION. AT THE
SURFACE...FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...BUT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...IT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE DAY...AND EXTENDED/EXPANDED THEM INTO THE NIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMP-WISE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO
MID-90S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ALOFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE/RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WEST. WITH POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE A BIT...IF IN FACT ANY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PLACE. KEPT THE DAY DRY FOR NOW PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
PRELIMINARILY AIMED LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...LITTLE CHANGE ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY STARTING TO HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS/CANADA BORDER AREA...BUT WITH FORCING IN THE LOCAL AREA
QUESTIONABLE. WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT QPF SOLUTIONS...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS VERY LAST PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARY AIMED UPPER 80S MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
90S KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
LONG THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THE HRRR AGAIN DEVELOPS STRATUS
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA WHEREAS THE NAM LLVL RH PROGS INDICATE THE BETTER
POTENTIAL TO THE EAST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND
INCLUDED SOME IFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING AROUND
MID DAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THIS GOES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND COLD FRONTS WILL BE WEAK PRESENTING MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE IDAHO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONVECTION...SKIES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
ENTIRE AREA STILL CAPPED.
FOR TONIGHT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS YET THIS AFTERNOON COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY TO SLIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. THE CONCERN WITH HOW LONG
ANY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LACK IN
FORCING AS THERE ISN/T A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH FOR ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FORCING. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA SO THINKING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE NAM AND THE RAP BOTH INDICATE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT NEITHER PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND AFTER BEING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHOWS SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z.
BIAS WOULD BE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR LATE EVENING AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER MODELS DID POORLY WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO...WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST BRINGING WARMER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 700MB...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASE TO 15-17C BY 00Z MONDAY WHEREAS RAOB DATA
FROM THIS MORNING /19.12Z/ SHOWED TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AT 10-12C.
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SO
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM EFFICIENTLY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GIVES HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN WITH REACHING THESE LEVELS OF
HEAT WILL BE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST AREAS WHICH WON/T HELP THE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THOSE LEVELS. BUT...SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
FULL MIXING WOULD BRING HIGHS TO 105 IN PLACES. THINK THIS IS TOO
HIGH AND WHEN LOOKING AT SREF PLUMES THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. KEPT THE FORECAST VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS SO KEPT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KIML TO KLBF TO KANW LINE. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BRING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 15 PERCENT. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO VALUES BEING RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD OF 100 DEGREES
ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REACHING THESE VALUES.
AS MENTIONED SOME PLACES MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP NEAR 15
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
DESPITE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...DON/T ANTICIPATE FIRE DANGER
GETTING TO A CRITICAL LEVEL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DRYLINE SURGE SUNDAY CONTINUES
MONDAY. A SLIGHT RETREAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS SD MONDAY SHOULD MOVE IT BACK EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CA THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY SETTING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE AFTN OR AT NIGHT
AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED AND OPERATE ABOVE 700 MB.
HEAT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100
AND HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY FOR HIGHS
90 TO 95. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED AND DRY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BACKS IN AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETREATS WEST. THIS SHOULD SET UP A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THIS ANCHORS THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRAWS COOLER AIR
WEST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. IN TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THE FCST AREA ALONG ABOUT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTL
CANADA.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT THE SIGNAL THE
MODELS GIVE IS DRY OWING TO WARM AIR ALOFT EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY STRATUS WILL
REFORM THROUGH THE NORTH PLATTE AREA AND THEN STREAM NORTH THOUGH
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TOWARDS VALENTINE AS IT HAS DONE THE LAST 4
MORNINGS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH STRATUS FORMATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH LATE MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THANKS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. AN SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WAVE MOVING OUT OF WRN SD CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE...THOUGH IT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. COULD CLIP THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...CONTINUING TO SEE SRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS BEEN STUBBORN OVER THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...KEEPING
TEMPS AT 3 PM IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN
AREAS WITH MORE SUN.
ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN QUESTION LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER ANY OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN DRIFT
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE CWA. MOST MODELS SAY ITS NOT
LIKELY...BUT THE 12Z 4KM IS SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL. INHERITED A
FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NEB...AND NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TO TAKE THOSE POPS OUT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FURTHER EAST...BECOMING MORE
ORIENTATED N/S THROUGH THE ROCKIES. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ANY DISTURBANCES REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
850MB TEMPS INCREASING FROM THE MID TEEN TO LOWER 20C RANGE THIS
MORNING TO THE MID 20/NEAR 30C RANGE BY THE END OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WHAT DEWPOINTS END UP
BEING. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TO HAVE
DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE MID 90S. FURTHER
SW...MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT SHOWING DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
60S...AND EXPECTING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100. BOTH COMBINATIONS
RESULT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES. HELD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...WAS NOT GETTING WIDESPREAD
VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE MIDNIGHT
CREW TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK...WITH THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY FLATTENING OUT LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANY
PARTICULAR DAY FOR THE TIME BEING.
STARTING MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A PAIR OF VERY HOT
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO BETTER MATCH WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE AXIS OF
A WEAK LLJ IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD
DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT THE CAP TO BE MOSTLY ERODED BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...WAS
ABLE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...EXPECT A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN
THE LOCAL AIRMASS AS A COOL FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
...WHICH SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT A MODEST COOLING FOR MID WEEK...AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5C IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LIKELY DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS LOW...THE GFS IS INDICATING A MCS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH
THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD IN THE EC...DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE WEEK...WITH YET
ANOTHER COOL FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING
POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS HAVE NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
LONG THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THE HRRR AGAIN DEVELOPS STRATUS
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA WHEREAS THE NAM LLVL RH PROGS INDICATE THE BETTER
POTENTIAL TO THE EAST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE HRRR AND
INCLUDED SOME IFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING AROUND
MID DAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THIS GOES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED MOST AREAS WITH A CLUSTER IN
SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY SOUTH OF KROW MOVING TO THE SOUTH. SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND
EASTERN PLAINS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BUT BEST CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO THE TEXAS
BORDER INCLUDING KCVS THUS LOW CIGS NOT INCLUDED AT KTCC AND KROW
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVE TO THE EAST WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH FEWEST
STORMS NORTHWEST AND BEST CHANCES CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN
QUITE A WHILE. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE INTRODUCED BY GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS VERIFY THE FOCUS OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVITY INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SERVE AS A SIGN OF THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 20Z LAPS DATA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS THERE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ABQ METRO.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER WAVE OVER THE BAJA WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO
TOWARD SW NEW MEXICO. GFS/NAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FOCUSES THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. THE H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO 596DM BY MONDAY SO COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
VERY HOT TEMPS ARE THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE H5
HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 600DM AND 700MB TEMPS APPROACH +21C. MANY AREAS
IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WILL AVERAGE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...ESPECIALLY
FROM ABQ SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DESPITE FEWER STORMS STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHERE EVER A
STORM FIRES UP.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN ON WHERE THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SHOWS
THE HIGH STAYING MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WOBBLES TO THE WEST. THIS STILL ALLOWS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FORMER EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS S CA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CIRCUMAMBULATE AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE MOIST NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP UNDER THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER NM WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY THE 500 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...CAUSING A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND NW AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH TRAVELS NORTHWARD OVER S CO ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE S AND SE.
AN UPPER LOW PASSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NW US BORDER WITH
CANADA IS FORECAST TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE FORM
OF A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. READINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES BEGINNING TUESDAY
IN THE EAST...BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. HAINES INDICES OF 5
SHOULD BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR VALUES OF 6 FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW WI
THROUGH SCNTL MN. THERE WAS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WANES...
PER THE RAP ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
FOR SUNDAY...WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES BETTER AXIS OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS/OVER THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN...SO
THINKING ANY SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS
THAT AREA LEAVING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TOPPING OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. WILL FEEL A TAD MORE HUMID
THOUGH AS DEW POINTS CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MN/CENTRAL WI. ECMWF HAS SHOWN BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL
AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKES AIM INTO OUR AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS MCS WILL TRACK. LATEST 19.12Z RUN
TAKES THE MCS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME RESPONSE/QPF-WISE...BUT NOT AS
INTENSE. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE 1000-2000J/KG...MAINLY ABOVE 850MB
WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME... PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. SO...COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES GIVEN FORWARD MOVING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TAKE THE MCS MORE INTO OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING HEAT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/WEST
CENTRAL WI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SCENARIO FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/MAINLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWERING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION. LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD BASES ARE MAINLY IN THE
3500-7000FT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
847 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE
ON SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED T-STORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. KMUX-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY BUT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 24 HOURS AND PREVIOUS
MONSOON EVENTS ITS ONLY DROPPING TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF VIRGA. NONETHELESS BRIEF SHOWERS WITH BIG DROPS
THAT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY THIS MORNING.
ON WATER VAPOR THERE IS A VERY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA
CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER TULARE COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGH SIERRA HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
MORNING (NOT THE USUAL AFTERNOON STUFF) OVER THE CREST. THE
NAM/HRRR AND RUC SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME POSSIBLE T-STORMS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES.
ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA RITA MOUNTAIN/PRIEST
VALLEY/PARKFIELD/HWY 198. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS. EVEN THOUGH
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND WERE NOT SEEING DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO
NEW FIRE IGNITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED SPRINKLES...ETC IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH OFF THE COAST SHOULD
TURN THE MAIN FLOW BACK TO WSW WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
MONSOON THREAT LOCALLY (STILL PLENTY OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
SIERRA). NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD TREND UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS THE DOMINATE
HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RADAR SHOWS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
DETECTED IN WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE NAM FORECASTS MU CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. MOST
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AND SO ONLY ISOLATED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE THE NAM FORECASTS
MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
RECENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST ONLY GRADUAL SOUTH-TO-NORTH CLEARING
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE MAY BE HUNG UP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS BETWEEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE
MUCH PRECIP AFTER TODAY...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. MOST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXIT
OUR AREA BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT THEN...THE MODELS BRING ONE MORE BRIEF SHOT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SSW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NE. IT`S DOUBTFUL WE
WILL SEE MORE THAN SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THIS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST...BRINGING IN
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEA
SURFACE TEMPS WHICH ARE A BYPRODUCT OF A RECENT LACK OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND THUS A REDUCTION IN
UPWELLING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CA FROM THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
MEAN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S IN THE WARMEST SF BAY AREA VALLEYS AND BACK OVER 100
IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS FROM
WARMING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 AM PDT SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE IS
STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS POPPING
UP OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT008 WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN008 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200 AND 1400Z THIS MORNING. BKN015 IS
EXPECTED AT 1400Z BUT WILL BURN OFF BY 1630Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC015 ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMRY BY 1700Z. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PASS OVER MONTEREY THIS MORNING WITH VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED
OCCASIONALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:27 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP OVER INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER....AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. ALSO...IF LIGHTNING DOES OCCUR IT
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER STARTING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
FIRE WX: DYKEMA
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH
LATE TODAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS
BROADSCALE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SW UNDERGOES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ASCENT ALONG AND N OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMMEDIATELY S OF
NEW ENGLAND AND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR THROUGH INTERIOR
AND E/NE NEW ENGLAND WILL PRESENT CHALLENGES FOR RAIN IN REACHING
THE SURFACE. BUT PER 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS...THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS NOT INCREDIBLY DEEP NOR ROBUST. SO SPRINKLES TO A STEADY
RAIN IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE BENEATH ANY AREAS OF RAINFALL OBSERVED
BY RADAR.
SO HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSEST TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY
FOR S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS /AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER OF A FOCUS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON/. CHANCE POPS FOR
ADJACENT AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER E NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUNSHINE MAINLY W. THUS HAVE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE
CT-RIVER VALLEY OF AROUND 80-DEGREES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO
MID-70S OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND AS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMERGING TOWARDS THE SW FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC INVOKES AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF BREEZY E/NE WINDS OFF THE COOLER WATERS.
AS FOR NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE HRRR IS
CATCHING UP. BUT SUGGEST THE USE OF THE ECMWF TO INTERPRET THE
BROADSCALE MOTIONS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS TO INTUIATIVELY DISCERN
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ACCOMPANYING LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE DESPITE
SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING CONDITIONS COULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TOWARD THE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH MID WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE LATEST /20.00Z/ GUIDANCE SUITE...THE DIFFERENCES
REGARDING A DIGGING TROF LATE IN THE WEEK ARE DIMINISHING. THE
ECMWF...AND SOME ENSEMBLES ARE LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF TRIES TO
DIG INTO BUILDING RIDGE BOTH ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND SE ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH. THEREFORE...THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT FOR WED-THU APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH HIGH PRES NOW
DOMINATING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS IDEA FITS THE
PATTERN BETTER...FEEL A BLEND OF THIS LATEST ECMWF WITH OTHER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WITH THIS
UPDATE.
THEREFORE...THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THESE TWO BUILDING
RIDGES...ALLOWING FOR AN INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. THE WARMING/HIGHER HUMIDITY TREND IS FAVORED AS
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO REACH ALMOST +19C BY THU.
IT IS NOT UNTIL THAT SLOWLY WEAKENING TROF ARRIVES LATE IN THE
WEAK THAT A DRIER..ZONAL..AND COOLER AIRMASS IS ALLOWED TO MOVE
IN.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING DWPTS...REACHING THE UPPER 60S BY
WED. H85 TEMPS OF +16C TUE SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHERE
SUNSHINE ALLOWS FULL MIXING...WHILE +18C SUGGESTS SOME HIGHS
AROUND 90F ON WED. THE KEY EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE THEIR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EACH DAY THE H7 TEMPS INCREASE...TO ABOUT
+8C ON TUE...THEN NEAR +10C BY WED...SUGGESTING A BUILDING CAPPING
INVERSION. ALSO...RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AND SLACKENING IN THE MASS
FIELDS REMAINS TO THE N AND W EACH DAY. THEREFORE...SUSPECT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY IS TO THE N AND W. ALSO...SHEAR IS
MINIMAL AT BEST /GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT/ SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE QUICKLY. IN SUM...WILL
GO WITH SOME LOW POPS..MAINLY ACROSS THE W EACH DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON WED THANKS TO THE FACT THAT ALL OF THESE
FEATURES LINE UP SLIGHTLY BETTER. OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
THU...
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS UPPER LVL JET STREAK
LINES UP IT/S RRQ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500J/KG. SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE HIGHER AS WELL...ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT. ALL AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES. WITH THE LATEST
RUNS...WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER AIR BY THU EVENING.
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION NOW FAVORED...THE SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE AS ONCE AGAIN...THE SW RIDGE
REGAINS CONTROL. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THAT SOME DRIER...COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER FROM THE W-NW.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A RETURN TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNTIL SW FLOW RETURNS BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAINLY S AND E OF A PVD-BOS LINE...VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THIS AS WELL. WINDS GENERALLY E-NE THROUGH THE
DAY EXCEPT MAINLY N IN THE CT VALLEY.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR/IF ESPECIALLY ACK/FMH/HYA/MVY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT
IN TAF EXCEPT ACK WITH THIS UPDATE. NE FLOW CONTINUES.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. LIGHT NE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN ON COASTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE HOISTED A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE S/SE WATERS FOR THE
PURPOSES OF NOTIFYING BOATERS OF THE THREAT OF GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT
BUOY 44017 UP TO 4.6 FEET AT THIS HOUR AND GUSTS OF AROUND 20-25
KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NANTUCKET SOUND.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHERN-ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER...WITH SW WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHT WITH
REDUCED VSBYS.
WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH
LATE TODAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS
BROADSCALE MOIST FLOW FROM THE SW UNDERGOES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ASCENT ALONG AND N OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMMEDIATELY S OF
NEW ENGLAND AND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR THROUGH INTERIOR
AND E/NE NEW ENGLAND WILL PRESENT CHALLENGES FOR RAIN IN REACHING
THE SURFACE. BUT PER 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS...THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS NOT INCREDIBLY DEEP NOR ROBUST. SO SPRINKLES TO A STEADY
RAIN IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE BENEATH ANY AREAS OF RAINFALL OBSERVED
BY RADAR.
SO HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSEST TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY
FOR S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS /AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER OF A FOCUS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON/. CHANCE POPS FOR
ADJACENT AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER E NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUNSHINE MAINLY W. THUS HAVE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE
CT-RIVER VALLEY OF AROUND 80-DEGREES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO
MID-70S OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND AS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMERGING TOWARDS THE SW FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC INVOKES AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF BREEZY E/NE WINDS OFF THE COOLER WATERS.
AS FOR NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE HRRR IS
CATCHING UP. BUT SUGGEST THE USE OF THE ECMWF TO INTERPRET THE
BROADSCALE MOTIONS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS TO INTUIATIVELY DISCERN
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ACCOMPANYING LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE DESPITE
SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING CONDITIONS COULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TOWARD THE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH MID WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE LATEST /20.00Z/ GUIDANCE SUITE...THE DIFFERENCES
REGARDING A DIGGING TROF LATE IN THE WEEK ARE DIMINISHING. THE
ECMWF...AND SOME ENSEMBLES ARE LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF TRIES TO
DIG INTO BUILDING RIDGE BOTH ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND SE ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH. THEREFORE...THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT FOR WED-THU APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH HIGH PRES NOW
DOMINATING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS IDEA FITS THE
PATTERN BETTER...FEEL A BLEND OF THIS LATEST ECMWF WITH OTHER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WITH THIS
UPDATE.
THEREFORE...THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THESE TWO BUILDING
RIDGES...ALLOWING FOR AN INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. THE WARMING/HIGHER HUMIDITY TREND IS FAVORED AS
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO REACH ALMOST +19C BY THU.
IT IS NOT UNTIL THAT SLOWLY WEAKENING TROF ARRIVES LATE IN THE
WEAK THAT A DRIER..ZONAL..AND COOLER AIRMASS IS ALLOWED TO MOVE
IN.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING DWPTS...REACHING THE UPPER 60S BY
WED. H85 TEMPS OF +16C TUE SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHERE
SUNSHINE ALLOWS FULL MIXING...WHILE +18C SUGGESTS SOME HIGHS
AROUND 90F ON WED. THE KEY EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE THEIR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EACH DAY THE H7 TEMPS INCREASE...TO ABOUT
+8C ON TUE...THEN NEAR +10C BY WED...SUGGESTING A BUILDING CAPPING
INVERSION. ALSO...RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AND SLACKENING IN THE MASS
FIELDS REMAINS TO THE N AND W EACH DAY. THEREFORE...SUSPECT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY IS TO THE N AND W. ALSO...SHEAR IS
MINIMAL AT BEST /GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT/ SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE QUICKLY. IN SUM...WILL
GO WITH SOME LOW POPS..MAINLY ACROSS THE W EACH DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON WED THANKS TO THE FACT THAT ALL OF THESE
FEATURES LINE UP SLIGHTLY BETTER. OVERNIGHT...SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
THU...
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS UPPER LVL JET STREAK
LINES UP IT/S RRQ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500J/KG. SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE HIGHER AS WELL...ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT. ALL AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES. WITH THE LATEST
RUNS...WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER AIR BY THU EVENING.
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION NOW FAVORED...THE SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE AS ONCE AGAIN...THE SW RIDGE
REGAINS CONTROL. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THAT SOME DRIER...COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER FROM THE W-NW.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A RETURN TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNTIL SW FLOW RETURNS BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAINLY S AND E OF A PVD-BOS LINE...VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THIS AS WELL. WINDS GENERALLY E-NE THROUGH THE
DAY EXCEPT MAINLY N IN THE CT VALLEY.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR/IF ESPECIALLY ACK/FMH/HYA/MVY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT
IN TAF EXCEPT ACK WITH THIS UPDATE. NE FLOW CONTINUES.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. LIGHT NE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN ON COASTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS OFF OUR COAST
BY ABOUT A FOOT. LOWERED THE WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT
THROUGH MONDAY.
TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
5-15 KT. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS AND ADJACENT
SHOWERS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER...WITH SW WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHT WITH
REDUCED VSBYS.
WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS. THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
This morning water vapor satellite shows a weak wave moving across
north central Kansas at 08Z. A band of clouds developed across
Dickinson, Clay and Washington Counties in area of isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer and on the nose of moisture advection in the
850mb-700mb layer. Stratus further west across northwest Kansas and
south central and western Nebraska low stratus clouds continued to
expand, mainly across Nebraska, as the low level jet veers to the
southwest.
Today and tonight will see a transition from northwest flow aloft as
a ridge builds in from the west. The wave is not expected to develop
showers as it moves east as atmosphere is dry.
Expect the clouds to expand some and spread east through sunrise.
Forecast soundings from the RAP indicates that the clouds should
breakup/dissipate during the mid to late morning hours. Temperatures
will be on the rise today as 850mb temperatures increase into the
lower to middle 20s Celsius. Forecast soundings show that these
temperatures should mix down from around 850 mb yielding highs in
the upper 80s east to the middle 90s north central. South winds
today will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 25mph.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase across north central and
northeast Kansas. Soundings show that winds should stay up overnight
keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Have maintained mild
overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. With the upper
ridge building over Kansas this will keep any precipitation to the
north of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Monday and Tuesday periods still looking quite warm as the upper
ridge continues to build north and east into the central portions of
the CONUS and south to southwest winds persist ahead of a cold
front. Specifics of just how warm and humid surface conditions will
be remain somewhat uncertain with models differing on low level
thermal profiles in terms of how deep mixing will be and how warm
the above-surface airmass will be to mix into. Other complicating
factors include well-agreed upon cirrus in Mexico coming northeast
and into the area Monday and still small chances for elevated
convection to develop ahead of the front in increasingly moist
though still not very saturated mid level parcels. Even if precip
fails to develop, could at least see some mid cloud into much of
Tuesday before the front arrives in the afternoon. At this point,
have leaned closer to the GFS soundings with mixing not as deep as
the NAM suggests and 850-925mb temp fields warmer than then ECMWF.
Dewpoints still support heat index values several degrees above air
temps for steadily increasing likelihood of Heat Advisory levels
being reached for mainly northern and central sections.
Better and more significant thunderstorm chances come with the
front`s passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE near the
boundary likely to be around 2000 J/kg but limited shear and high
cloud bases should limit severe potential to mainly
multicell-produced downburst winds. Boundary exits Wednesday
morning for a somewhat cooler though higher relatively humid airmass
as moisture pools behind the front, though Thursday looking a bit
more comfortable as northeast winds persist. Still appears to be at
least minor convective chances as the front pushes back northeast
Thursday night into Friday, with another cold front likely moving
south into Kansas around Saturday. Models vary with just how this
may happen, but the upper ridge appears to again break down with
shortwaves dropping southeast from central Canada. Highs Friday
could again near triple digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR Conditions are expected through the period. South winds
increase to around 13kts with gusts near 22 kts after 15Z. Winds
drop off to less than 10 kts after 01Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1110 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ SCT SHRAS MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO FM THE NNE...AND ALG W/ THE CLDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGN. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E WHILE
DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HRS. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/PCLDY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY...W/ LMTD FORCING (AT BEST)...POPS WILL LARGELY
STAY BLO 20-30%. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL GENLY ALLOW THE SFC LOW ACRS THE
TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO SPREAD INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE SE/MID ATLC REGION. SOME INDICATION
THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WHICH COULD KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS GENLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE
LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS
ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES
TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK
TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN
AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM
THE 60S TO L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM
CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA
CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS
FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY
INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE WASHING OUT. WEAK HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST NE
OR E FLO ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT ISLTD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. INVERTED TROF/SFC
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE
WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE RIVERS/CHES
BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW
DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WTRS FM THE WNW
LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN MN LATE
THIS AFTN OR EVENING MAY REACH NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TO WHAT EXTENT
STRATUS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH FM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS THE FLOW WAS MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH SFC DPS
AVERAGING LOW/MID 60S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE ARE LOOKING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
INITIATED ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND THE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
MAIN AREA OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK WHEREAS RAP/NAM SUGGEST THE AREAS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE W/E TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OR DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 20S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
AND WILL BE NEAR 30 CELSIUS IN THE WEST. FULLY MIXED THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WITH HIGHER DPS IN PLACE...OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN OUR EAST...TO NEAR 100F IN THE WEST. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DPS IN OUR NE AND
WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER TODAY.
FARTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH DPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 PUSHING EAST WITH SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPS...AND STRATUS DOES LOOK TO ERODE QUICKER FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR 100F AND COULD SEE SOME
CU TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN AGAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. AT SOME POINT IN THIS PATTERN THE HEAT WILL TURN ON...BUT
WE NEED TO BE FREE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU BUT CHCS LOOK RATHER
SLIM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDELY-ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...THE
MOST IMMEDIATE AND CURRENTLY-PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
REVOLVES AROUND CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOONS OF FORECASTED 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHUNK OF
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO OBSERVE
AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
105-109 DEGREES. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HOT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING THAT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A
POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAIRLY-STRONGLY SUPPORTS
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR HERE THAT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS (FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS) LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY IN FACT BE OVER-DOING THE HEAT
SITUATION SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS...WHILE ITS A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT IT WILL IN FACT BE QUITE HOT ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE RECENT COOL STRETCH...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS...OR
MORE SO INTO THE MORE HAZARDOUS 105+ TERRITORY. AS A RESULT OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE COORDINATED WITH MOST SURROUNDING WFOS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW (LET
ALONE TUESDAY)...AND THUS ALLOW THE NEXT 1-2 SHIFTS TO HOPEFULLY
GAIN A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT BLAST.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THE NUMBER OF 12-HOUR PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HAS
INCREASED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE KEY WORD THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCES...AND CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TERRITORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
ALSO WHETHER OR NOT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME CAN BE OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONE MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ON ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...THE PREDOMINANTLY
SUBTLE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT) LENDS ITSELF
TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH (IF ANY) PERIODS ARE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL KEEP
OUT A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BARELY CLIPS SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
LOW-END 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ON BOTH THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS.
ALTHOUGH NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY THIS WAY BY ANY MEANS...ONLY 3 OF
THE 11 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF SLIGHT
POPS: WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FRIDAY DAYTIME AND SATURDAY DAYTIME.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN
MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING-LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BUT GENERALLY REMAINING CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
GENERALLY 14-16C EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD LARGELY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY TO ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DEPICTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS...ECMWF AND 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...AM
LARGELY DISCOUNTING THE 00Z/06 NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE QPF DURING THE DAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
OVERDONE IN RECENT WEEKS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LET THAT
RIDE FOR NOW IN CASE SOMETHING DOES MANAGE TO POP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT HOURS AS HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS DRY
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT STORM POTENTIAL
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HELPING USHER IN HOTTER AIR BUT
POTENTIALLY ALSO ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HEAT INDEX
SITUATION WAS LARGELY DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL HIGHS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE UPPER 90 AND MORE
SO 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
MORE OVER COLORADO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA TO MUCH MORE NORTHERLY VERSUS WESTERLY...AND BRINGS THE LOCAL
AREA PRONE TO SOME FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BISECT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE NORTH OF
IT. DESPITE THIS FRONT MOVING IN...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND HAVE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
90S NORTH TO 100-102 AGAIN IN KS ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY
RESULT IN OVERALL-HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN
MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. AS FOR POPS...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PASS THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT MIGHT RETROGRADE BACK
SOUTHWEST A BIT TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. KEPT THE DAY VOID OF
POPS...BUT KEPT WED NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB
CWA AS INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THESE POPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION. AT THE
SURFACE...FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...BUT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...IT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE DAY...AND EXTENDED/EXPANDED THEM INTO THE NIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMP-WISE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO
MID-90S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ALOFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE/RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WEST. WITH POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE A BIT...IF IN FACT ANY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PLACE. KEPT THE DAY DRY FOR NOW PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
PRELIMINARILY AIMED LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...LITTLE CHANGE ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY STARTING TO HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS/CANADA BORDER AREA...BUT WITH FORCING IN THE LOCAL AREA
QUESTIONABLE. WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT QPF SOLUTIONS...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS VERY LAST PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARY AIMED UPPER 80S MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
90S KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND WAS
EXPANDING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
REACHED KEAR AND WERE HEADING TOWARD KGRI. CIGS WITHIN THE
STRATUS RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR. KEAR SHOULD SEE LOWER CIGS THAN
KGRI. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A VSBY RESTRICTION BUT IN
GENERAL THE LOWER VSBYS IN BR SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN RAPIDLY ERODING THE STRATUS THIS MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK WITH THIS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT IF TRENDS HOLD...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
SCATTER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER.
SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING
A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO
06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO
2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND
AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S
MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND
1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3C AND -5C BY WEDS AFTERNOON. AS
POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2
HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU
500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS
HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
5H TROF...UNDER CUTTING HIGH PRES. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD PASS BY OUR TAF SITES WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE AT RUTLAND AND MSS BTWN 14Z-18Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LVL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE INFLUENCE AT PBG FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WL BE BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN...WHICH MEANS SE AT RUTLAND AROUND 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE NOTED A LLVL JET OFF THE LATEST RAP OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ONLY 200 TO 400 FEET AGL...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS WL BE
TRICKY AS SFC MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE WITH DWPT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE L60S POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AS
LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRNT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CREATING AREAS OF
TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS...IN OUR MTN TAF SITES OF MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1053 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING TODAY. WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW. THIS ONE NOT AS
POTENT AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. AREA OF -SHRA MOVING FROM TUG FORK AND
TRI STATE AND INTO C LOWLANDS NEXT FEW HRS. BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS
OF HRRR HAVE INCREASED POPS GOING DETERMINISTIC TO FOLLOW THIS
THRU UP TO ABOUT I64 CORRIDOR WITH LKLY POPS BEFORE IT FADES.
WITH SOME HEATING AND INITIAL SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THINK THIS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE STOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
SLIDES INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS.
ANY MID LVL CAP SHOULD BE NIXED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES. ALSO SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM SSE FLOW SHOULD HELP AS WELL
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED LKLY POPS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTIONS OF THE C AND ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCHC ELSEWHERE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. ALSO HAVE THUNDER IN...GIVEN BUILDING
INSTABILITY PER MODELS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
STILL DEALING WITH 500MB TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODELS FAVORING THE COAL FIELDS AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR HIGHEST POPS...CORRESPONDING TO MOST
PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE. HAVE POPS LINGERING IN THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO
TONIGHT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND TODAY...AND BASED
ON HIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY USING A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A WEAK 925 MB
FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN
CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO
CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY. ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE
HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN
CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79
CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT
ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS
OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A
DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS
GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW
AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIXED BAG ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE DENSE FOG
FLOATING AROUND...PLUS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
DRIFTING NORTH. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES AT 500MB CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN WHEN AND WHERE TO PUT IN TAF AT
THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER CIGS MAY HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SE FLOW. ANTICIPATE MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SO HAVE
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING AFTER AROUND 06Z TONIGHT IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SHOWERS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AD
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH
A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS...SPRINKLES...INDICATED ON RADAR. PRETTY
MUCH JUST A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING IN PROGRESS BUT
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER LAKES
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO SERN CANADA. I GENERALLY DOWNPLAYED THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TODAY...AND MAY DOWNPLAY FURTHER AS MORE DATA
COMES IN. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES JUST DO NOT GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GIVE ME MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS/THUNDER
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY. THINKING IS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING TO POP UP WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AREAS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN THE HRRR WAS THE LONE HOLD-OUT IN
DRAGGING RAIN THROUGH THE LOWERS SUSQ AND PROVED TO BE RIGHT...ALL
MODELS AGREE TODAY IN JUST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT OVER THE WEST.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 75
AND 80...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER STABILITY
INCREASES...WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
SCENT ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
RISING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS /BUT STILL WEAK TROUGHINESS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE U70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AROUND 80F IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS WEAKLY TROFFY TO ZONAL WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LOCATED
NORTH OF U.S. BORDER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER
WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS MON-EARLY
WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEAK IN THE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT POLEWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TODAY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID DAY...WITH VFR
PREVAILING THRU THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS
INTO THE EVENING.
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M MVFR FOG/BR. WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...COLD FROPA LATER WED-WED NGT SHOULD BRING A GREATER
CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A RESIDUAL
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK WEDGE OF COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS SATURDAY GIVEN LACK OF RE-ENFORCING PRECIP...WITH
EVEN SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPCLY FAR SW VA INTO SE
WVA WHERE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE THE FAINT SHORTWAVE NOW WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SLIDES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND CAUSES
CLOUDS/SHRA TO FILL BACK IN. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME
WIDELY SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FEATURE
ESPCLY AFTER 18Z WHEN MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE OVER THE FAR WEST. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS TO INIT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADDED IN A BIT MORE TSRA I-77 CORRIDOR
LATER ON PER LATEST HRRR AND NCEP WRF. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
ISOLATED -TSRA SE PIEDMONT BUT APPEARS LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY
AND BETTER LIFT REMAINING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. OTRW KEEPING SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST ENDING UP FAR WEST LATER ON AND LEAST
ACROSS THE NE UNDER THE WEAKENING WEDGE. EVEN WITH SOME
SUN...COOLER MET MOS TEMPS STILL LOOK BEST SO KEPT VALUES CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH THE NW
NC BLUE RIDGE SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND CONTINUING TO
MAINTAIN A WEAK EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRODUCING SUBTLE COOL-AIR
DAMMING. WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT THE AIR MASS THE OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS
HOLDING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...00Z/20 RAOB FROM
KRNK HAD 1.48 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR DATE
IN JULY...ALSO RIGHT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR THE YEAR.
THAT SAID THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER WE CAN DEVELOP ANY
CONVECTION AT ALL TODAY AND THAT MAY DEPEND ON SOME BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT OVERCAST. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN FAR WEST WHICH WILL BE LESS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. MODEL CAPES FROM ARW_RNK REACH
1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AT BLUEFIELD SO PUT ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE WEST ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY FROM BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORT-WAVE AND WEAK LOW DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE MODEST...GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES ON A MEAN AREAL
BASIS. TEMPS TRICKY AS WELL TODAY WITH CLOUDS/JULY SUN GAME IN
FULL SWING. USED MODEL BLEND BUT A FEW HOURS OF EXTRA HEATING
COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH CURRENT MID-70S WEST TO LOW 80S EAST
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE AROUND A PERSISTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM ASSUMES A PSEUDO
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A
MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FORCE THIS FEATURE TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE GA/SC COAST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...PWS WILL RISE TO NEAR
2.0 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUCH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NW NC/FAR SW VA WHERE MOIST
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE...WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW NC AND FAR SW VA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ADVERTISED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF NW
NC/FAR SW VA COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...DYNAMICS/SHEAR ARE WEAK.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD ANYWHERE IN THE CWA
FOR THAT MATTER.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS/PWS AND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TEMPER ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS...70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR 90
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRI...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS ALWAYS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING.
THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION OWING TO
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AT A MINIMUM. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LINGERING
PSEUDO TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY UPSTREAM NW FLOW DISTURBANCES.
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WED...THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED A GFS/ECMWF
MOS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...
GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PSUEDO TROPICAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY INTO MONDAY...THEN RETROGRADE
NW BETWEEN EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND WESTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TRAPPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUPPORT -SHRA SKIRTING KDAN THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH LOW END VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS...LIKELY VFR VSBYS. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS...INCLUDING LWB/BLF/BCB...SPREADING EAST TOWARD ROA
AROUND SUNSET. FOR NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF TSRA TO BLF
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. OVERNIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS MOST
AREAS AFT 06Z IN STRATUS/FOG TO MVFR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR
BCB/BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH AND WEAK SE
FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE ROANOKE VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINING LIGHT SE
5KTS OR LESS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TOWARD NW NC MON AND STALL/SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE-WED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU. EXPECT SCT-NMRS DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE/COVERAGE THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRONTAL SYSTEM THU WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO ALL AREAS. PERIODS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AND DAILY -SHRA WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL SUCH PRONE
LOCATIONS...NAMELY LWB/BCB/LYH. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION...EXPECT POSSIBLY KDAN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER...DRIZZLE AND EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED TO PRODUCE THREE NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMA FOR THE DATE
YESTERDAY JULY 19 2014. BLACKSBURG...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD ALL
SET NEW DATE RECORDS...BY 6 DEGREES F IN THE CASE OF BLACKSBURG.
SEE WBCRERRNK FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...PC/RAB
CLIMATE...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 20/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AND
MOVING NORTH. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WITH STEERING FLOW
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING HAD THE LOWEST/DRIEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...ESPECIALLY FOR A MORNING
SOUNDING WITH A VALUE OF 1.04 INCHES. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS PW VALUE
FALLS IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS PRETTY
DRY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. THAT SAID...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP AS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST SONORA AND NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA. A FEW CELLS COULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AS WELL. U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM MODEL AND HRRR SHOW A
SIMILAR SCENARIO. THAT SAID...THINK THE POP FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...WILL BASE MY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING LARGELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH A SIMILAR THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND I DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED POP FORECAST
DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES THIS TIME OF YEAR. I INHERITED AN
UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR NOGALES AND DOUGLAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THIS HAPPENING IS NOT AS HIGH SINCE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE RIDGE BUILDING WEDNESDAY AND NEARLY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WERE SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT NOW THIS FEATURE IS LESS
PRONOUNCED AND FARTHER SOUTH. THAT SAID...THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY MAY BE TOO HIGH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL WANT TO TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THIS AFTER RECEIPT OF 00Z MODEL RUNS.
THE BIG STORY HOWEVER IS THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FOR TUCSON EXPECTED TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE 110 DEG MARK...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL...OTHERWISE HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY. LOWS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST EXCEEDS RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL. THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST 110 TEMPS OF THE YEAR AND HOTTEST JULY TEMPS SINCE 2011 (110
OR GREATER OCCURRENCES ARE MOST COMMON IN JUNE BEFORE THE MONSOON
ARRIVES).
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SE OF KTUS ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH -TSRA. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT FOR THE GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KSAD...WHERE WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AROUND 15 KTS THRU EARLY
EVENING. THE -TSRA AND WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY IS SIMILAR TO THAT
OF TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND BRING
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN
AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE
ON SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED T-STORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. KMUX-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY BUT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 24 HOURS AND PREVIOUS
MONSOON EVENTS ITS ONLY DROPPING TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF VIRGA. NONETHELESS BRIEF SHOWERS WITH BIG DROPS
THAT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY THIS MORNING.
ON WATER VAPOR THERE IS A VERY WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA
CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER TULARE COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGH SIERRA HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
MORNING (NOT THE USUAL AFTERNOON STUFF) OVER THE CREST. THE
NAM/HRRR AND RUC SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME POSSIBLE T-STORMS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES.
ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA RITA MOUNTAIN/PRIEST
VALLEY/PARKFIELD/HWY 198. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS. EVEN THOUGH
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND WERE NOT SEEING DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO
NEW FIRE IGNITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED SPRINKLES...ETC IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH OFF THE COAST SHOULD
TURN THE MAIN FLOW BACK TO WSW WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
MONSOON THREAT LOCALLY (STILL PLENTY OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
SIERRA). NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD TREND UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS THE DOMINATE
HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RADAR SHOWS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
DETECTED IN WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE NAM FORECASTS MU CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. MOST
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AND SO ONLY ISOLATED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE THE NAM FORECASTS
MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
RECENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST ONLY GRADUAL SOUTH-TO-NORTH CLEARING
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE MAY BE HUNG UP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS BETWEEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE
MUCH PRECIP AFTER TODAY...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. MOST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXIT
OUR AREA BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT THEN...THE MODELS BRING ONE MORE BRIEF SHOT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SSW ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA LIFTS TO THE NE. IT`S DOUBTFUL WE
WILL SEE MORE THAN SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THIS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND TEMPS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST...BRINGING IN
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEA
SURFACE TEMPS WHICH ARE A BYPRODUCT OF A RECENT LACK OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND THUS A REDUCTION IN
UPWELLING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CA FROM THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
MEAN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S IN THE WARMEST SF BAY AREA VALLEYS AND BACK OVER 100
IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS FROM
WARMING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT. VICINITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS RETURN OVER TERMINAL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN OVER APPROACH MONDAY MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURN
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER....AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. ALSO...IF LIGHTNING DOES OCCUR IT
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER STARTING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MIDWEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
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SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE LAST OF THIS LATEST LITTLE SUBTROPICAL
SURGE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND,
MAINLY FOR SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTY. A SURPRISINGLY DEEP AND SOLID
MARINE LYR HAS FORMED IN IT`S WAKE ACROSS LA COUNTY WITH TOPS AROUND
3500`. BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE, THOUGH HRRR MODEL SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NOTHING DEVELOPING ONCE THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. NAM12 CAPE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
AT GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY AND JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE EVENING...THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WRF INDICATES A FAIRLY SOLID
STRATUS PATTERN IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING MON IN MOST AREAS. SMALL
RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING TO INTERIOR SECTIONS ON MONDAY...BUT MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE
COAST OPENS UP AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN CA. HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY SHRINK IN DEPTH...BUT NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
PROBABLY STILL PUSH INTO COASTAL AND AT LEAST THE LOWER VLY
LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST WED AND THU...AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
CONT TO RISE. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE WILL BE WARMING BOTH WED AND THU...WITH
TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON WED...AND IN THE WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS BY THU. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR
FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SEND
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY SAT...BUT FOR
NOW...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/1725Z...
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER WEAK INVERSION BASED AROUND
3000 FEET. COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS ALL CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/VFR CIGS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
SITES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
SCATTERING OUT AROUND 20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN IS LOW.
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 05Z FORECAST.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
DISSIPATING BY 20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN. MVFR CIGS COULD
RETURN +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...20/900 AM
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE LAST OF THIS LATEST LITTLE SUBTROPICAL
SURGE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND,
MAINLY FOR SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTY. A SURPRISINGLY DEEP AND SOLID
MARINE LYR HAS FORMED IN IT`S WAKE ACROSS LA COUNTY WITH TOPS AROUND
3500`. BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN`T ARGUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE, THOUGH HRRR MODEL SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NOTHING DEVELOPING ONCE THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. NAM12 CAPE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
AT GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY AND JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE EVENING...THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WRF INDICATES A FAIRLY SOLID
STRATUS PATTERN IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING MON IN MOST AREAS. SMALL
RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES MAY BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING TO INTERIOR SECTIONS ON MONDAY...BUT MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE
COAST OPENS UP AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN CA. HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY SHRINK IN DEPTH...BUT NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
PROBABLY STILL PUSH INTO COASTAL AND AT LEAST THE LOWER VLY
LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST WED AND THU...AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
CONT TO RISE. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE WILL BE WARMING BOTH WED AND THU...WITH
TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON WED...AND IN THE WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS BY THU. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR
FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SEND
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY SAT...BUT FOR
NOW...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
20/1140Z
VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SOME SHOWERS MIXED IN. ANY COASTAL STATION COULD SEE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z BUT ONLY THE KLAX AND KLGB HAVE A GREATER THAN 50% CHC.
ALL STATIONS HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER THROUGH 20Z. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTM OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT.
.KLAX...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS COULD DISSIPATE ANY
TIME BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER
THROUGH 20Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z.
.KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS COULD LAST TIL 16Z. THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER THROUGH 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...20/900 AM
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS THE NOSE OF A 60+KT JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE WHILE ALSO
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. GRAND JUNCTION RAOB SHOWED .46 INCHES
OF PWAT YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THE NAM12 FORECAST FAIRLY WELL.
TODAY...THE NAM12 IS SHOWING AN INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON SO 2 INGREDIENTS...LIFT FROM THE JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...ARE IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES DO BECOME STEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA SO WITH ALL 3 INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...STORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE A SOLID BET. SOME SHEAR ALSO EXISTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE POP AND DROP WE`VE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO DO EXPECT SOME RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. HRRR REALLY
LIGHTING UP THE SAN JUANS WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SO HIGH POPS IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
WITH THE 60KT JET STREAK AT H3 PLAYING A ROLE.
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA RETREATS WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CAN SHIFT BACK OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS USUALLY A GOOD
POSITION TO BE PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE 4 CORNERS...BUT
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
A DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN US BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THIS JET RETREATS NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE RECYCLING
EACH DAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THIS FLATTENING WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BECOME W TO NWLY AND LIMITING THE MEAGER AMTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WERE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HOT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH 04Z/MON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH A NUMBER OF CELLS WILL DRIFT OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. TAF SITES
WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE IS A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE STORMS WILL PASS OVERHEAD. STRONGER CELLS COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES OFF WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING OVER THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT JUST A FEW STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANCE THAT TAF SITES WILL BE
IMPACTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER UT/CO TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH
500MB OR SO ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SFC RH`S WILL BE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 PERCENT AS DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CO
FIRE ZONE 200. TO THAT END...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT ZONE ON MONDAY FROM NOON TO 8PM.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING
AROUND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...AND
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE RADAR APPEARS MUCH
MORE WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. STILL...WE WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY EXITING OUR EASTERN
AREAS BY ABOUT MID MORNING. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AS IT SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. WITH
850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES C...AND MIXING OCCURRING TO
ABOUT 825-850 HPA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S...IT WON/T
FEEL TOO HUMID OUT THERE EITHER...AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY...WITH READINGS AROUND 1.00
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN
BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STEADILY RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...850
HPA TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...WITH +16 AT 850 HPA IN PLACE BY
TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
ON MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME WARMER EACH NIGHT...WITH 50S TONIGHT...LOW 60S FOR MON
NIGHT...AND MID 60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING DURING THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS ON MON OR TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF
AND FAIRLY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20C ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMBS INTO THE MID 90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE
THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD/S
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE
TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 40KTS WITH FORECAST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG
AS PWATS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER
WITH FROPA TIMING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS/GGEM REMAINS LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MULTIPLE SURFACES WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD STILL BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS. THE
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING
SOUTHWARD TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE TERRAIN BUT ECMWF
REMAINS LESS PRONOUNCED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BATCH OF RAIN WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE BERKSHIRES LEAVING BEHIND
A BKN VFR DECK. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE DAY WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
WITH A TENDENCY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING ABOUT SOME MIST/FOG.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. AFTER A CLOUDY START...SOME SUN WILL BREAK OUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION AND RH
VALUES RETURNING TO 85-100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY EITHER...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
255 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE DCAPE VALUES AND THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTS TO 40KT WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
NEAR ONE INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND THUS HAVE ONLY
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THERE ARE BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT AND LESS CLOUDINESS
TO HELP AID SURFACE HEATING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND WARM TO
5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES. MID LEVEL CEILINGS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING IDZ401.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ORZ646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
This morning water vapor satellite shows a weak wave moving across
north central Kansas at 08Z. A band of clouds developed across
Dickinson, Clay and Washington Counties in area of isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer and on the nose of moisture advection in the
850mb-700mb layer. Stratus further west across northwest Kansas and
south central and western Nebraska low stratus clouds continued to
expand, mainly across Nebraska, as the low level jet veers to the
southwest.
Today and tonight will see a transition from northwest flow aloft as
a ridge builds in from the west. The wave is not expected to develop
showers as it moves east as atmosphere is dry.
Expect the clouds to expand some and spread east through sunrise.
Forecast soundings from the RAP indicates that the clouds should
breakup/dissipate during the mid to late morning hours. Temperatures
will be on the rise today as 850mb temperatures increase into the
lower to middle 20s Celsius. Forecast soundings show that these
temperatures should mix down from around 850 mb yielding highs in
the upper 80s east to the middle 90s north central. South winds
today will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon with
gusts of 20 to 25mph.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase across north central and
northeast Kansas. Soundings show that winds should stay up overnight
keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Have maintained mild
overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. With the upper
ridge building over Kansas this will keep any precipitation to the
north of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Monday and Tuesday periods still looking quite warm as the upper
ridge continues to build north and east into the central portions of
the CONUS and south to southwest winds persist ahead of a cold
front. Specifics of just how warm and humid surface conditions will
be remain somewhat uncertain with models differing on low level
thermal profiles in terms of how deep mixing will be and how warm
the above-surface airmass will be to mix into. Other complicating
factors include well-agreed upon cirrus in Mexico coming northeast
and into the area Monday and still small chances for elevated
convection to develop ahead of the front in increasingly moist
though still not very saturated mid level parcels. Even if precip
fails to develop, could at least see some mid cloud into much of
Tuesday before the front arrives in the afternoon. At this point,
have leaned closer to the GFS soundings with mixing not as deep as
the NAM suggests and 850-925mb temp fields warmer than then ECMWF.
Dewpoints still support heat index values several degrees above air
temps for steadily increasing likelihood of Heat Advisory levels
being reached for mainly northern and central sections.
Better and more significant thunderstorm chances come with the
front`s passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE near the
boundary likely to be around 2000 J/kg but limited shear and high
cloud bases should limit severe potential to mainly
multicell-produced downburst winds. Boundary exits Wednesday
morning for a somewhat cooler though higher relatively humid airmass
as moisture pools behind the front, though Thursday looking a bit
more comfortable as northeast winds persist. Still appears to be at
least minor convective chances as the front pushes back northeast
Thursday night into Friday, with another cold front likely moving
south into Kansas around Saturday. Models vary with just how this
may happen, but the upper ridge appears to again break down with
shortwaves dropping southeast from central Canada. Highs Friday
could again near triple digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
Expect VFR conditions and south winds through the TAF period.
Gusts 20-25 kts possible this afternoon and again late Monday
morning. Will have a LLJ around 35 kts at 2000 ft AGL tonight, but
winds around 10 kts at surface suggest that LLWS group will not be
needed.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO
THE E AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY
W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE
N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY FM THE NNE. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E
AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY
W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE
N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ SCT SHRAS MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO FM THE NNE...AND ALG W/ THE CLDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGN. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E WHILE
DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HRS. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/PCLDY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY...W/ LMTD FORCING (AT BEST)...POPS WILL LARGELY
STAY BLO 20-30%. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL GENLY ALLOW THE SFC LOW ACRS THE
TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO SPREAD INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE SE/MID ATLC REGION. SOME INDICATION
THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WHICH COULD KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS GENLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE
LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS
ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES
TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK
TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.
DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN
AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.
HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM
THE 60S TO L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM
CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA
CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS
FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.
NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
...UPDATE...ISSUED SCA UNTIL 00Z FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 10 NM...AS BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN AOA 5 FEET SINCE SUNRISE.
EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS LO LVL FLOW WEAKENS.
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST
TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT
OVR THE RIVERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE WTRS FM THE WNW LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN MN LATE THIS
AFTN OR EVENING MAY REACH NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AT CMX. CHANCE IS
SO LOW FOR RIGHT NOW...DO NOT HAVE IT IN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO MVFR.
HAZE: IMPROVING AS MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
AREA WINDS: WINDS IN THE 12 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND DECREASING BY
SUNSET.
WEATHER: A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AND THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME KSDY AND KGDV
LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THEM BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z.
FRANSEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TEENS IN ZONES 135 136 AND 137. TO ADD TO THE
CONCERN...COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPARKING LIGHTNING CONCERNS. THERE ISN`T A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH EITHER SO THAT ADDS TO THE CONCERN AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TO WHAT EXTENT
STRATUS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH FM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS THE FLOW WAS MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH SFC DPS
AVERAGING LOW/MID 60S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE ARE LOOKING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
INITIATED ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND THE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
MAIN AREA OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK WHEREAS RAP/NAM SUGGEST THE AREAS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND ERODE W/E TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OR DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 20S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
AND WILL BE NEAR 30 CELSIUS IN THE WEST. FULLY MIXED THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WITH HIGHER DPS IN PLACE...OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN OUR EAST...TO NEAR 100F IN THE WEST. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DPS IN OUR NE AND
WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER TODAY.
FARTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH DPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 PUSHING EAST WITH SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPS...AND STRATUS DOES LOOK TO ERODE QUICKER FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR 100F AND COULD SEE SOME
CU TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN AGAIN IN OUR SW CWA. WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. AT SOME POINT IN THIS PATTERN THE HEAT WILL TURN ON...BUT
WE NEED TO BE FREE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU BUT CHCS LOOK RATHER
SLIM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
AS HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDELY-ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...THE
MOST IMMEDIATE AND CURRENTLY-PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD
REVOLVES AROUND CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOONS OF FORECASTED 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHUNK OF
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO OBSERVE
AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
105-109 DEGREES. BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HOT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING THAT
APPEARS TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KS ZONES FOR A
POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAIRLY-STRONGLY SUPPORTS
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR HERE THAT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS (FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS) LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY IN FACT BE OVER-DOING THE HEAT
SITUATION SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS...WHILE ITS A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT IT WILL IN FACT BE QUITE HOT ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE RECENT COOL STRETCH...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS...OR
MORE SO INTO THE MORE HAZARDOUS 105+ TERRITORY. AS A RESULT OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE COORDINATED WITH MOST SURROUNDING WFOS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW (LET
ALONE TUESDAY)...AND THUS ALLOW THE NEXT 1-2 SHIFTS TO HOPEFULLY
GAIN A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT BLAST.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THE NUMBER OF 12-HOUR PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES HAS
INCREASED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE KEY WORD THERE IS
SLIGHT CHANCES...AND CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TERRITORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
ALSO WHETHER OR NOT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME CAN BE OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ALONE MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ON ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...THE PREDOMINANTLY
SUBTLE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT) LENDS ITSELF
TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH (IF ANY) PERIODS ARE
WORTHY OF A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL KEEP
OUT A FORMAL SEVERE MENTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BARELY CLIPS SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
LOW-END 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ON BOTH THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS.
ALTHOUGH NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY THIS WAY BY ANY MEANS...ONLY 3 OF
THE 11 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF SLIGHT
POPS: WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FRIDAY DAYTIME AND SATURDAY DAYTIME.
GETTING INTO SOME MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN
MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS INVOLVES HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING-LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BUT GENERALLY REMAINING CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UNDER THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
GENERALLY 14-16C EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD LARGELY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
NECESSARILY TO ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DEPICTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS...ECMWF AND 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...AM
LARGELY DISCOUNTING THE 00Z/06 NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE QPF DURING THE DAY. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN NOTORIOUSLY
OVERDONE IN RECENT WEEKS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LET THAT
RIDE FOR NOW IN CASE SOMETHING DOES MANAGE TO POP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT HOURS AS HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYS
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THE ECMWF IS DRY
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SLIGHT STORM POTENTIAL
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HELPING USHER IN HOTTER AIR BUT
POTENTIALLY ALSO ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HEAT INDEX
SITUATION WAS LARGELY DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL HIGHS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE UPPER 90 AND MORE
SO 100-102 IN KS ZONES.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
MORE OVER COLORADO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA TO MUCH MORE NORTHERLY VERSUS WESTERLY...AND BRINGS THE LOCAL
AREA PRONE TO SOME FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BISECT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE NORTH OF
IT. DESPITE THIS FRONT MOVING IN...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND HAVE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
90S NORTH TO 100-102 AGAIN IN KS ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY
RESULT IN OVERALL-HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN
MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. AS FOR POPS...LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PASS THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT MIGHT RETROGRADE BACK
SOUTHWEST A BIT TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. KEPT THE DAY VOID OF
POPS...BUT KEPT WED NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEB
CWA AS INTRODUCED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THESE POPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION. AT THE
SURFACE...FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...BUT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...IT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE DAY...AND EXTENDED/EXPANDED THEM INTO THE NIGHT HOURS
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMP-WISE
LOOKING SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO
MID-90S SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ALOFT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE/RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WEST. WITH POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE A BIT...IF IN FACT ANY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PLACE. KEPT THE DAY DRY FOR NOW PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
PRELIMINARILY AIMED LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY DAYTIME...LITTLE CHANGE ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY STARTING TO HEAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS/CANADA BORDER AREA...BUT WITH FORCING IN THE LOCAL AREA
QUESTIONABLE. WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT QPF SOLUTIONS...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS VERY LAST PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARY AIMED UPPER 80S MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
90S KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
QUIET WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E/SERN
CONUS. SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS/MVFR CIGS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS NOW
PRIMARILY AFFECTING LOCATIONS JUST TO THE N/NE OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE THAN RECENT WEEKS. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
IN QUITE A WHILE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SHIFT WEST AND ALLOW SEVERAL MOIST BACK DOOR FRONTS TO
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL TAPER OFF THE HEAT AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENING IS VERY LOW BUT WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL IMPACT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES THIS EVENING. THE
20Z SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE CRATERING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
DESPITE ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BEST MOISTURE IS
POOLING AROUND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER THE SE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z GFS ARE PICKING UP ON A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING FROM THE DIVIDE TO NEAR THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. THE 06Z
WRF AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS EARLIER BUT BACKED OFF ON IT FOR
THE 12Z RUN. QPF VALUES COULD BE HIGH BENEATH A SLOW MOVING SOUTH
TO NORTH COMPLEX BUT PLACEMENT AND DURATION IS VERY QUESTIONABLE.
PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT. THE
OTHER WRINKLE IS THE HRRR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH AFTER 06Z UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS OCCUR AS THE LATEST IR SHOWS SOME VIGOROUS
CONVECTION ERUPTING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF SHOW WITH VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE CURRENT
594DM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM SHIFTING NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND BUILDING TO 599DM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS INTRODUCES
ANOTHER TOSS UP AS HEIGHTS RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT AN AXIS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES WEST FROM WEST/CENTRAL TX. SEVERAL DAYS AGO
MODELS WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR MORE COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. MADE ONLY SUBTLE POP
CHANGES TO INCREASE VALUES OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AT
LEAST HOT TEMPS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TREND TOWARD THE WEST WHILE YET
ANOTHER VERY STRONG SUMMER UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TRANSITION PERIOD FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE HIGH WARPS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. A STRONG BACK
DOOR FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER NM. THIS IS MOST CERTAINLY
NOT ANYWHERE NEAR THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
OVER THE CONUS DURING LATE JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE TODAYS SHOWER AND STORM CROP HAS BEEN A SLOW STARTER...IT MAY
END UP TO BE NEARLY AS GOOD OR BETTER COVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTN OR EVE. THE BULK
OF THE BURN SCAR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RISK OF HEAVY
RUNOFF OR WORSE THROUGH THE EVE. THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VARY A FAIR DEGREE
FROM DAY TO DAY ACROSS THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...PROBABLY SHIFTING A
LITTLE WAYS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH MON AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TUE AND WED. IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN THEREAFTER...AS
TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE...BUT LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO AGREE PRETTY WELL THAT A MODERATE TO STRONG BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PUSH INTO AND ACROSS AT LEAST
EAST AND CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER WEST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MODERATE TO ROBUST INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR AND BEHIND ITS PASSAGE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND MON.
UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID TO LATE JULY CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION.
NO CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AT
LEAST...COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT MINIMUM RHS HAVE REACHED
MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS A FEW SITES ACROSS NORTH NM AND
EVEN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT BETWEEN
MON AND WED...BUT SUBSIDE SOME AGAIN BY LATE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND
HAINES INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP SOME MON AND PERHAPS
TUE...THEN DROP SOME WED AND THU BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP NEAR END OF
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL VARY FROM FAIR TO VERY
GOOD...DEPENDING IN LARGE PART ON WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ON A PARTICULAR DAY.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA
AND TSRA WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 05Z
MONDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL AS MT OBSCURATIONS. TAF SITES MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE CONVECTION ARE LVS...TCC AND SAF AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE GUP AND ROW.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 63 96 58 99 / 5 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 51 90 49 93 / 20 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 57 89 54 91 / 40 10 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 59 92 54 93 / 10 5 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 53 82 53 86 / 20 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 52 92 / 30 10 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 56 84 56 87 / 20 10 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 58 93 58 95 / 10 5 10 20
CHAMA........................... 47 83 47 86 / 20 30 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 85 60 87 / 40 20 10 20
PECOS........................... 58 84 57 84 / 30 30 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 52 82 / 30 30 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 48 74 49 75 / 30 50 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 78 44 80 / 30 60 20 30
TAOS............................ 53 85 52 88 / 30 20 20 20
MORA............................ 54 83 53 83 / 30 60 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 60 91 60 94 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 61 87 59 88 / 40 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 93 59 92 / 30 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 93 65 94 / 30 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 96 69 96 / 30 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 97 66 97 / 30 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 97 68 98 / 30 10 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 96 64 97 / 30 5 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 98 68 98 / 30 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 99 70 99 / 40 5 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 91 61 91 / 30 20 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 62 93 60 93 / 30 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 88 57 88 / 30 30 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 88 60 87 / 30 50 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 90 62 90 / 30 30 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 91 67 90 / 20 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 59 86 59 84 / 20 40 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 62 85 61 85 / 20 40 20 20
RATON........................... 61 89 59 89 / 30 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 61 91 60 91 / 30 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 86 57 85 / 30 60 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 67 94 67 95 / 20 20 30 20
ROY............................. 65 89 63 89 / 20 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 70 97 69 95 / 20 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 94 69 93 / 20 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 97 70 96 / 20 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 67 92 67 92 / 20 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 69 96 69 96 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 96 69 94 / 20 20 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 70 98 70 96 / 20 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 66 90 66 89 / 20 20 20 20
ELK............................. 64 84 63 84 / 20 20 30 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST PLACES.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET
MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED
SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL
MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING
TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW
REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK
ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL
GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL
WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL
MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO
VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG
CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A
BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A
5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WEDNESDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BRINGING A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.
FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
MONDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS THE SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION MAKING WHAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAIN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA EVEN THOUGH A SFC
RIDGE IS IN PLACE. EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC RESPONSES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR IN TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
HEIGHT THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO RISE. MONDAY TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S... AND BY TUES TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPR 80S. TUESDAY MAY FEEL QUITE MUGGY AS DEW PTS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BNDRY
BY MID-WEEK. ONLY DISCREPANCY IS GFS HAS SFC LOPRES RIDING THRU
CWA WED NGT LEADING TO POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT WHEREAS EC BRINGS
FROPA THRU RAPIDLY. DIFFERENCES SURROUND STRONG S/WV BEING SHOWN
BY GFS WHEREAS EC IS JUST A TROF MVG THRU THE NORTHEAST. APPEARS
TO BE THAT GFS IS SUFFERING FM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH REGARD TO
THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY, EXPECT LKLY POPS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z
THURSDAY AND HV NOT MADE ANY CHGS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.
AFT FROPA OCCURS 1020MB SFC HIGH WL BUILD IN THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. TWD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH EVENTUAL UL FEATURE DROPPING INTO
THE UPR MIDWEST THAN ITS 12Z RUN WAS. WL AWAIT FOR LATER GUIDANCE
BFR CHANGING FCST THIS FAR OUT IN THE DAY 7/8 TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL
MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING
TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW
REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK
ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL
GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL
WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL
MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO
VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG
CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A
BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A
5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.
WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BUT SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNED WEST
OF THE AREA ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE
TODAY...AND KEEP A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT MEAN...HOWEVER...THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE DRY. A
WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS THROUGH EVE BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES
THIS TO FIZZLE OUT. THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE AS IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL
SHARPEN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN...CREATING AN OPEN GOM AND
HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE COLUMN MOISTURE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TO WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS MOIST COLUMN WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST WITHIN A
RESIDUAL LAYER ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE PBL. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THIS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THIS IS ECHOED WELL BY HIGH
RES HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN INITIALIZING PRETTY WELL TODAY.
COOLING TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...INCREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE...AND CONTINUED WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. HAVE
FORECAST LOWS ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED AT
THE BEACHES...AND LOWS AROUND 70 FAR WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...IT COULD BE A WET DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND AN OLD FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. ADDITIONALLY...AND A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
MAXES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AROUND 70.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE TUESDAY BUT
THE OLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MAX BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE WRF EVEN BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MAXIMUM SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MINS AGAIN
AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE SETUP TO THE WEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
ON FRIDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE CLASSICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW
MIDDLE 90S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG CAPE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOST SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN CONVECTION. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08Z...BEST CHANCE INLAND...AND ALTHOUGH A
LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
RE-DEVELOP LATE...AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
RAINY DAY WITH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY ONGOING EARLY
IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. VFR
WILL BE PREDOMINANT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...RATHER NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN HAS KEPT
WINDS LIGHT THUS FAR TODAY...WITH 10 KTS OR LESS SE WINDS OBSERVED
AT THE LOCAL BUOYS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND HAS ALLOWED A 9 SEC SE SWELL
TO BECOME PREDOMINANT IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SO ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/SE
WIND CHOP EXISTS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY
BECOME SW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT AROUND 15
KNOTS BUTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE
PERIOD OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AND WITH INCREASE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS..31
NEAR TERM...WEISS
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A
RESIDUAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID WEEK
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK WEDGE OF COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS SATURDAY GIVEN LACK OF RE-ENFORCING PRECIP...WITH
EVEN SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPCLY FAR SW VA INTO SE
WVA WHERE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE THE FAINT SHORTWAVE NOW WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SLIDES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND CAUSES
CLOUDS/SHRA TO FILL BACK IN. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME
WIDELY SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FEATURE
ESPCLY AFTER 18Z WHEN MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE OVER THE FAR WEST. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS TO INIT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADDED IN A BIT MORE TSRA I-77 CORRIDOR
LATER ON PER LATEST HRRR AND NCEP WRF. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
ISOLATED -TSRA SE PIEDMONT BUT APPEARS LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY
AND BETTER LIFT REMAINING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. OTRW KEEPING SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST ENDING UP FAR WEST LATER ON AND LEAST
ACROSS THE NE UNDER THE WEAKENING WEDGE. EVEN WITH SOME
SUN...COOLER MET MOS TEMPS STILL LOOK BEST SO KEPT VALUES CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS MOST IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH THE NW
NC BLUE RIDGE SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND CONTINUING TO
MAINTAIN A WEAK EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRODUCING SUBTLE COOL-AIR
DAMMING. WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT THE AIR MASS THE OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS
HOLDING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...00Z/20 RAOB FROM
KRNK HAD 1.48 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR DATE
IN JULY...ALSO RIGHT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR THE YEAR.
THAT SAID THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER WE CAN DEVELOP ANY
CONVECTION AT ALL TODAY AND THAT MAY DEPEND ON SOME BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT OVERCAST. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN FAR WEST WHICH WILL BE LESS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. MODEL CAPES FROM ARW_RNK REACH
1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AT BLUEFIELD SO PUT ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE WEST ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY FROM BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORT-WAVE AND WEAK LOW DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE MODEST...GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES ON A MEAN AREAL
BASIS. TEMPS TRICKY AS WELL TODAY WITH CLOUDS/JULY SUN GAME IN
FULL SWING. USED MODEL BLEND BUT A FEW HOURS OF EXTRA HEATING
COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH CURRENT MID-70S WEST TO LOW 80S EAST
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE AROUND A PERSISTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM ASSUMES A PSEUDO
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A
MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FORCE THIS FEATURE TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE GA/SC COAST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...PWS WILL RISE TO NEAR
2.0 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUCH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NW NC/FAR SW VA WHERE MOIST
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE...WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW NC AND FAR SW VA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ADVERTISED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF NW
NC/FAR SW VA COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...DYNAMICS/SHEAR ARE WEAK.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD ANYWHERE IN THE CWA
FOR THAT MATTER.
850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS/PWS AND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TEMPER ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS...70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR 90
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRI...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS ALWAYS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING.
THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION OWING TO
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AT A MINIMUM. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LINGERING
PSEUDO TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY UPSTREAM NW FLOW DISTURBANCES.
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WED...THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED A GFS/ECMWF
MOS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWER MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN OVER THE
WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
UNDER SOME BREAKS IN THE EAST. EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE KBLF/KLWB AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR POSSIBLE INCLUDING AN ISOLATED -TSRA AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AND A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CROSSES. OTRW OTHER THAN A
VICINITY MENTION...KEEPING SHRA OUT OF THE TAFS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT SE WIND.
IMPULSE PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TAPER
OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT LEFTOVER SHRA OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER CONTINUED SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN THE
SFC-7H WILL CAUSE CIGS TO AGAIN LOWER...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
EXPECTED ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR AT KLWB AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME PATCHY -DZ
AND FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA MAY TEND TO LIMIT LOWER CLOUD
FORMATION ACROSS THE SE AS WELL AS AROUND KBLF WHERE WILL SEE WEAK
DOWNSLOPING.
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO TURN MORE EASTERLY ON
MONDAY ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO ENHANCE A BIT MORE. THIS MAY KEEP AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AROUND ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON
BUT EXPECT MOST SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS MAINLY
KTNB-KUKF TO KDAN. MORE BREAKS ALONG WITH VFR EXPECTED A BIT
SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF MVFR/VFR AT KBCB/KROA TO KBLF LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF THE FADING SE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH EARLY FOG IN SPOTS GIVING WAY TO BRIEF
VFR...THEN PERIODIC MVFR IN CLOUDS/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OF MVFR/IFR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. IMPROVED AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...EXPECT POSSIBLY KDAN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB